TNH TON THY VN

Nguyn Thanh Sn

NXB i hc Quc gia H Ni 2003

T kho: Tn sut, Chun dng chy nm, Dng chy l, mt dm, dao ng dng chy
nm, phn phi dng chy nm, dng chy l, cng ti hn, vi phn, dng chy kit,
ti nguyn nc, mi trng

Ti liu trong Th vin in t i hc Khoa hc T nhin c th c s dng cho

mc ch hc tp v nghin cu c nhn. Nghim cm mi hnh thc sao chp, in n
phc v cc mc ch khc nu khng c s chp thun ca nh xut bn v tc
gi.

MC LC
MC LC.............................................................................................................................................. 2
LI TA................................................................................................................................................ 7
Chng 1.NI DUNG V PHNG PHP NGHIN CU TNH TON THY VN ........... 8
1.1. NI DUNG NGHIN CU .................................................................................................................... 8
1.2. LCH S PHT TRIN TNH TON THY VN.............................................................................. 9

1.2.1. Cc cng trnh nghin cu...................................................................................... 9

1.2.2. Tng hp, phn chia cc giai on pht trin thy vn ....................................... 11
1.2.3. Lch s pht trin thy vn Vit Nam ................................................................ 12
1.3. PHNG PHP NGHIN CU .......................................................................................................... 12

1.3.1. Phng php kho st trm o............................................................................. 12

1.3.2. Phng php khi qut......................................................................................... 13
1.3.3. Phng php m hnh ho ton hc v thc nghim ........................................... 13
1.3.4.Phng php thng k ........................................................................................... 15
Chng 2. S HNH THNH DNG CHY.................................................................................. 16
2.1. KHI NIM V CH NC LC A ....................................................................................... 16
2.2. N V O DNG CHY .................................................................................................................. 16
2.3. CC C TRNG CA LU VC................................................................................................... 18

2.3.1. Cc c trng ca mng li a l thy vn ...................................................... 18

2.3.2. Cc c trng hnh thi ca lu vc .................................................................... 18
2.3.3. Cc yu t mt m............................................................................................... 20
2.3.4. Cc c trng kh hu .......................................................................................... 21
2.4. BN CHT VT L CA DNG CHY.......................................................................................... 23

2.4.1. Giai on to dng ............................................................................................... 23

2.4.2. Giai on dng chy sn dc ............................................................................. 24
2.4.3. Giai on dng chy trong sng ngi .................................................................. 25
2.5. CNG THC CN NGUYN CA DNG CHY ........................................................................... 26

2.5.1. Khi nim v ng cong chy truyn ................................................................. 26

2.5.2. Thnh lp cng thc cn nguyn dng chy ........................................................ 26
Chng 3. PHNG TRNH CN BNG NC......................................................................... 28
3.1. PHNG TRNH CN BNG NC DNG TNG QUT ........................................................... 28
3.2. PHNG TRNH CN BNG NC CHO MT LU VC SNG NGI................................... 29

3.2.1. Phng trnh cn bng nc cho lu vc kn ...................................................... 29

3.2.2. Phng trnh cn bng nc cho lu vc h ....................................................... 29
3.3. PHNG TRNH CN BNG NC LU VC CHO THI K NHIU NM .......................... 29
3.4. PHN TCH CC NHN T NH HNG N DNG CHY SNG NGI THNG QUA
PHNG TRNH CN BNG NC ................................................................................................. 30
3.5. PHNG TRNH CN BNG NC AO H, M LY.............................................................. 31

3.5.1. Phng trnh cn bng nc cho ao h ............................................................... 31

3.5.2. Phng trnh cn bng nc cho m ly ........................................................... 31
3.6. CN CN NC VIT NAM ............................................................................................................. 32
2

3.6.1. Ti nguyn nc ton lnh th ............................................................................. 32

3.6.2. Ti nguyn nc theo 7 vng kinh t nng nghip ............................................... 32
Chng 4. CHUN DNG CHY NM ......................................................................................... 35
4.1. NH NGHA V KHI NIM ........................................................................................................... 35
4.2. XC NH CHUN DNG CHY NM KHI C Y TI LIU QUAN TRC................. 35
4.3. LA CHN THI K TNH TON ................................................................................................... 36
4.4. TNH CHUN DNG CHY NM KHI KHNG S LIU QUAN TRC.............................. 38
4.5. XC NH CHUN DNG CHY NM KHI KHNG C TI LIU QUAN TRC................... 40

4.5.1. Xc nh theo bn ng tr .............................................................................. 40

4.5.2. Phng php ni suy ............................................................................................ 41
4.5.3. Xc nh chun dng chy nm theo phng trnh cn bng nc ..................... 41
4.6. NH HNG CC IU KIN A L T NHIN TI CHUN DNG CHY NM ............. 42

4.6.1. nh hng ca cc yu t kh hu........................................................................ 42

4.6.2. nh hng ca din tch lu vc n chun dng chy nm ............................... 43
4.6.3. nh hng ca a hnh n chun dng chy nm............................................. 44
4.6.4. nh hng ca a cht th nhng ti chun dng chy nm........................... 45
4.6.5. nh hng ca rng v cc dng thm thc vt n chun dng chy nm....... 45
4.6.6. nh hng ca h n chun dng chy nm...................................................... 47
4.6.7. nh hng ca m ly n chun dng chy nm ............................................. 47
4.6.8. nh hng ca cc hot ng kinh t n chun dng chy nm ....................... 47
4.7. XY DNG BN CHUN DNG CHY NM ........................................................................ 48

4.7.1. Phn tch ti liu xy dng bn chun dng chy nm................................... 48

4.7.2. Cc bc xy dng bn chun dng chy nm ............................................... 48
4.8. DNG CHY SNG NGI VIT NAM V CC YU T A L TC NG TI N ........... 49

4.8.1. Cc yu t kh hu ................................................................................................ 49
4.8.2. Th nhng v nham thch .................................................................................. 52
4.8.3. a hnh ................................................................................................................ 53
4.8.4. Rng...................................................................................................................... 54
4.8.5. S hot ng kinh t ca con ngi ..................................................................... 55
Chng 5. DAO NG DNG CHY NM.................................................................................. 58
5.1. NG DNG L THUYT XC SUT THNG K TNH DAO NG DNG CHY NM..... 59

5.1.1. Mt s tnh cht c bn ca cc ng phn b c trng dng chy................ 59

5.1.2. ng cong m bo v cc khi nim thng k................................................. 60
5.2. XC NH CC THAM S C TRNG CHUI DNG CHY KHI C Y S LIU
QUAN TRC .......................................................................................................................................... 61
5.3. XC NH CC THAM S C TRNG THEO PHNG PHP GII - GII TCH G. A.
ALECXYEV ......................................................................................................................................... 63
5.4. XC NH THAM S THNG K DNG CHY NM KHI QUAN TRC NGN..................... 66
5.5. XC NH THAM S THNG K DNG CHY NM KHI KHNG C QUAN TRC ........... 68
5.6. XY DNG NG CONG M BO V TNH TON DNG CHY NM VI XC SUT
AN TON CHO TRC ....................................................................................................................... 69
Chng 6. S PHN PHI DNG CHY TRONG NM ........................................................... 72
6.1. CC NHN T NH HNG N S PHN PHI DNG CHY TRONG NM .................... 72
3

6.1.1. Vai tr cc nhn t nh hng i vi s phn phi dng chy trong nm ........ 72
6.1.2. Tnh hnh phn phi dng chy Vit Nam ......................................................... 74
6.2. NM I BIU MA NM V DNG CHY NM...................................................................... 74

6.2.1. La chn nm i biu ......................................................................................... 74

6.2.2. Phn phi dng chy theo phng php nm i biu ........................................ 75
6.4. NG CONG DUY TR LU LNG ........................................................................................... 76

6.4.1. ngha v cc c trng biu th ......................................................................... 76

6.4.2. Phng php m hnh ho ng cong duy tr lu lng ................................... 77
6.5. PHNG PHP XC NH M HNH PHN PHI DNG CHY NM KHI C TI LIU
QUAN TRC .......................................................................................................................................... 78

6.5.1. Phng php V.G. Anryanp............................................................................ 78

6.5.2. Phng php nm in hnh................................................................................. 79
6.6. TNH TON PHN PHI DNG CHY NM KHI THIU TI LIU QUAN TRC .................. 79

6.6.1. Phng php lu vc tng t............................................................................. 79

6.6.2. Quan h gia cc thng s phn phi vi cc nhn t nh hng (xy dng cho
tng vng) ....................................................................................................................... 80
6.6.4. Phng php cng tn sut tnh phn phi dng chy trong nm thit k ..... 81
6.6.5. Phng php iu tit ton chui......................................................................... 81
6.6.6. Phng php phn tch qu trnh ngu nhin ...................................................... 81
Chng 7. DNG CHY LN NHT ............................................................................................. 82
7.1. NGHA NGHIN CU L V CC C TRNG DNG CHY LN NHT........................ 82
7.2. CC YU T NH HNG TI DNG CHY LN NHT ......................................................... 82
7.3. S HNH THNH DNG CHY L.................................................................................................. 83

7.3.1. S hnh thnh dng chy l .................................................................................. 83

7.3.2. Cng thc tnh Q max v s phng php tnh Qmax t ti liu ma ro .......... 84
7.4. MA RO V PHNG PHP XC NH..................................................................................... 86

7.4.1. Ma ro ................................................................................................................ 86
7.4.2. Cng thc trit gim cng ma..................................................................... 87
7.5. VN TN THT V CHY T................................................................................................... 89

7.5.1.Tn tht .................................................................................................................. 89

7.5.2. Chy t v phng php xc nh thi gian chy t ............................................ 91
7.6. CC CNG THC TNH DNG CHY LN NHT....................................................................... 95

7.6.1. Cng thc cng gii hn ............................................................................... 96

7.6.2. Cng thc th tch................................................................................................. 98
7.6.3. Cng thc trit gim ........................................................................................... 100
7.7. GII PHNG TRNH VI PHN DNG CHY L ...................................................................... 104

7.7.1. Gii phng trnh vi phn trong lng sng c s .............................................. 104
7.7.2. Tm mdun v lu lng ln nht trn lu vc c s ........................................ 105
7.7.3. Cng thc khi qut dng chy ln nht trn lu vc c s.............................. 107
7.7.4. Gii phng trnh vi phn cho h thng sng ngi ............................................ 109
7.7.5. Cng thc dng tng qut ca dng chy ln nht theo h thng lng sng .... 112
7.7.6. Kho st h s a l thy vn ............................................................................ 112
7.8. TNG LNG L V QU TRNH L ......................................................................................... 114

7.8.1. Tng lng l v phng php xc nh............................................................ 116

4

7. 8.2. Phng php xc nh qu trnh l ................................................................... 117

7.8.3. Thnh phn v s t hp nc l ....................................................................... 120
7.8.4. Ma l Vit Nam.............................................................................................. 122
Chng 8. DNG CHY B NHT .............................................................................................. 126
8.1. TNH TON DNG CHY B NHT KHI C S LIU QUAN TRC ...................................... 126
8.2. TNH TON DNG CHY B NHT KHI KHNG C TI LIU QUAN TRC...................... 127
8.3. TNH HNH DNG CHY KIT VIT NAM .............................................................................. 128

8.3.1. Cc thi k dng chy kit.................................................................................. 128

8.3.2. Nc trong ma kh v cc vn v nc....................................................... 128
Chng 9. DNG CHY RN........................................................................................................ 130
9.1. CC YU T HNH THNH DNG CHY RN .......................................................................... 131
9.2. TNH TON DNG CHY PH SA ................................................................................................ 131
9.3. TNH TON LNG NG H CHA ............................................................................................ 133
9.4. L BN ........................................................................................................................................ 133
Chng 10. M HNH HO TON HC DNG CHY ........................................................... 135
10.1. PHN LOI M HNH DNG CHY ........................................................................................... 135

10.1.1. M hnh ngu nhin .......................................................................................... 135

10.1.2. M hnh tt nh................................................................................................ 136
10.1.3. M hnh ng lc - ngu nhin......................................................................... 138
10.2. NHNG NGUYN L CHUNG TRONG VIC XY DNG M HNH " HP EN" - LP M
HNH TUYN TNH DNG................................................................................................................ 139

10.2.1. Mt s cu trc m hnh tuyn tnh c bn ...................................................... 140

10.3. GII THIU CC M HNH HP EN TRONG TNH TON THY VN.............................. 145

10.3.1. M hnh Kalinhin - Miuliakp - Nash............................................................... 145

10.3.2. ng lu lng n v ................................................................................... 146
10.4. NGUYN L XY DNG M HNH "QUAN NIM" DNG CHY ........................................ 147

10.4.1. Xy dng cu trc m hnh............................................................................... 147

10.4.2. Xc nh thng s m hnh ............................................................................... 148
10.5. GII THIU M HNH QUAN NIM ............................................................................................ 150

10.5.1. M hnh TANK .................................................................................................. 150

10.5.2. M hnh SSARR................................................................................................. 159
10.6. M HNH DIN TON CHU TH .............................................................................................. 163

10.7.2. M hnh ho chui dng chy nm................................................................... 167

10.7.3. Xt phn b dng chy trong nm .................................................................... 168
10.9. KT QU NGHIN CU NG DNG M HNH TON THY VN VIT NAM .............. 171
Chng 11. QUN L CHT LNG V BO V MI TRNG NC ......................... 172
11.1. NGUN NC V MI TRNG................................................................................................ 172

11.1.1. Ngun nc trn Tri t ................................................................................ 172

11.1.2. S dng ngun nc mt, nc ngm .............................................................. 173
11.1.3. nh hng ca mi trng i vi cht lng nc sng, vn nhim nc
hin nay......................................................................................................................... 175
11.1.4. nh hng ca cc cng trnh thy li, p nc n mi trng................. 176
5

11.2. KIN THC C S NH GI CHT LNG NC ....................................................... 176

11.2.1. Nhng thng s vt l, ho hc, sinh hc ca cht lng nc....................... 176

11.2.2. Nhu cu oxy sinh hc BOD............................................................................... 177
11.2.3. COD, TOD, TOC .............................................................................................. 179
11.3. THNH PHN V NGUN GC NC THI............................................................................ 179

11.3.1. Nc thi sinh hot........................................................................................... 179

11.3.2. Nc thi cng nghip...................................................................................... 180
11.3.3. Nc thi t nng nghip, chn nui ............................................................... 180
11.4. CHT LNG NC DNG V TIU CHUN CHT LNG NC ................................. 180

11.4.1. Cht lng nc dng ...................................................................................... 180

11.4.2. Tiu chun cht lng nc ............................................................................. 181
11.5. PHN TCH NHNG NH HNG NHIM TRONG T NHIN ......................................... 182

11.5.1. S bin i v xy ha tan trong khu vc nhim ........................................... 182

11.5.2. Ngun cung cp v tiu th xy trong nc ..................................................... 182
11.5.3. M hnh tnh ton s bin i BOD - xy ha tan theo chiu dng chy........ 184
TI LIU THAM KHO ................................................................................................................ 187
HYDROLOGICAL CALCULATION ............................................................................................ 187

LI TA
Gio trnh "Tnh ton thy vn" c bin son cho sinh vin ngnh Thy vn lc a,
trng i hc Khoa hc T nhin, i hc Quc gia H Ni. Gio trnh cn c dng nh
ti liu tham kho cho cc nh thy vn trong nghin cu, thit k v qun l ti nguyn mi
trng nc.
Trong 11 chng, gio trnh cp ti cc vn phn tch, tnh ton cc qu trnh v
hin tng dng chy trn lu vc sng ngi. C s l lun v cu trc gio trnh da trn
cun "Tnh ton thy vn" ca nh bc hc X-Vit I. Ph. Goroskov (1979) v tc phm cng
tn ca cc tc gi trng i hc Thy li (1985), c b sung thm mt s kin thc mi
trong lnh vc m hnh ton v thy vn hin i. Chng ti xin php cc tc gi cho s dng
cc ti liu trn trong gio trnh ny. Gio trnh c bin son trn kinh nghim thc tin mt
s nm ging dy ti B mn Thy vn lc a, Khoa Kh tng Thy vn v Hi dng hc,
Trng i hc Khoa hc T nhin, i hc Quc gia H Ni. Cun sch c gng cp nht
mt s thnh tu v nghin cu thy vn trong nc.
Tc gi xin cm n TS. Lng Tun Anh, PGS.TS. Nguyn Vn Tun c nhiu kin
ng gp nhm hon thin cun sch ny. Chc chn gio trnh vn cn rt nhiu khim
khuyt, tc gi mong nhn c s ng gp, b sung ca cc chuyn gia, cc bn ng nghip
ln xut bn sau c hon thin hn.

Tc gi

Chng 1
NI DUNG V PHNG PHP NGHIN CU
TNH TON THY VN
1.1. NI DUNG NGHIN CU
Tnh ton thy vn l mt phn quan trng ca thy vn hc lin quan cht ch vi nhng nhu cu
thc t ca nn kinh t quc dn nhm gii quyt cc vn iu ha v phn phi ti nguyn nc. Tnh
ton thy vn lm nhim v cu ni gia cc nghin cu l thuyt trong lnh vc thy vn v cc vn
thc tin s dng ti nguyn nc. C th ni tnh ton thy vn l phn chnh trong thy vn thc hnh.
Chnh ni dung trn xc nh mc ch nghin cu v v tr ca Tnh ton thy vn i vi cc
chuyn nghin cu tip theo ca thy vn hc nh: D bo thy vn, Tnh ton thy li v ng lc hc
dng sng- nhng hng nghin cu c bn nht ca thy vn hc. Trong gio trnh ny xem xt cc vn
v s hnh thnh, cc qui lut phn b v pht trin ca cc c trng dng chy v cc phng php
nh lng chng.
Ni dung chnh ca gio trnh tp trung ch yu vo vic phn tch cc c trng ca dng chy,
nghin cu cc nh hng ca cc iu kin kh tng, mt m ti cc c trng v cc nguyn l khi
qut a l cng nh s thay i theo thi gian, khng gian ca chnh dng chy v cc tham s thng k
ca n. Tm li n m bo cho kh nng tnh ton dng chy cc lu vc hoc thm ch cn cha
c nghin cu.
Nc l mt dng ti nguyn qu bu khng g c th thay th c, l mt thnh phn khng th tch
ri ca mi trng sng, l li ch, l him ha khng lng i vi nhn loi. Chnh v vy, Thy vn hc
l mt ngnh khoa hc xc nh vai tr ca nc trong thin nhin v trong s pht trin kinh t - x hi
ca t nc.
Nc l ti nguyn c th t ti to nn mang ngha c bit i vi s pht trin ca nhn loi.
s dng cc tnh ton thy vn cn lm r nhu cu s dng thng tin v cc c trng v tham s
dng chy ca cc ngnh kinh t quc dn khc nhau.
Khi thit k cc trm thy in nht thit phi c cc thng tin v dng chy trung bnh nhiu nm,
dng chy cc nm nhiu nc v t nc, phn b dng chy theo ma v theo thng. Theo cc thng tin
c th xc nh cng sut thit k ca nh my thy in v kh nng sn xut in trong tng nm. Khi
lm p, h cha cn c nhng thng tin v lu lng cc i v tn sut lp li ca n.
m bo cung cp nc cho cng nghip v sinh hot th trc ht phi nm vng cc thng tin v
dng chy cc tiu v cc nm nc b, nc trung bnh.
xy dng h cha phc v cho cng tc thy nng cn cc s liu tin cy v dng chy trung bnh
nhiu nm, gi tr tng lng v lu lng nc cc i ma l, c bit l s phn phi dng chy trong
nm cng nh lng dng chy ma kit.
i vi giao thng vn ti khi thit k cu, cng qua sng cn c mc nc ln nht. m bo cho
tu thuyn i li cn bit r mc nc thp nht.
qui hoch kinh t cc lnh th cn c s liu v vng ngp lt v kh nng xi l hai b sng.
S cn thit m bo yu cu khc nhau trong lnh vc xy dng bi cc c trng mun hnh mun
v ca dng chy chnh l ni dung c bn ca Tnh ton thy vn.

1.2. LCH S PHT TRIN TNH TON THY VN

1.2.1. Cc cng trnh nghin cu
Cng nh bt k mt mn khoa hc no, khoa hc thy vn tri qua nhiu giai on pht trin: t
n s n hon chnh trong cc cng trnh nghin cu l thuyt, t n gin n phc tp trong k thut
o c, thu thp thng tin, phng tin tnh ton. Vic xem xt mt cch c h thng nhng giai on pht
trin ca khoa hc thy vn c mt ngha nht nh trong vic a ra nhng nghin cu mi, ph hp vi
quy lut pht trin khch quan, gip ta xc nh chin lc pht trin ca ngnh v trc mt l chn cc
ti nghin cu trong th k XXI.
Lch s pht trin thy vn c th hin qua nhiu cng trnh nghin cu ca cc tc gi. Cc
cng trnh cp n nhng vn sau:
Khong t nm 3500 n 3000 (trc Cng nguyn) s uy hip thng xuyn ca sng Nin khin
cho cc Pharang (cc vua Ai Cp thi c i) phi ra lnh thng xuyn theo di mc nc sng Nin qua
cc thit b o c c gi l cc nilomet.
Khong t nm 450 n 350 (trc Cng nguyn) Plato v Aristotle nu ln nhng nguyn l c bn
v tun hon thy vn. Nhng quan st u tin ca Hy Lp ra i.
Khong t nm 64 n 150 (sau Cng nguyn) hong La M Nr nu ra nguyn l tnh ton lu
lng nc bng tch s ca din tch mt ct ngang v tc chy (Q = F.v). Vic o c ma c tin
hnh Palestin.
T nm 1452 n 1519, Leonard de Vinci tin hnh o c dng chy bng phao ni.
T nm 1510 n 1590 Palisay cng c l thuyt ca Plato v Aristotle v tun hon thy vn bng
khi nim mi.
T 1610 - 1687 phi k n cc cng trnh:
1610: Santori xut dng c o tc nc. 1614: bng Logarit ca Napror ra i. 1642: Pascal
t c s u tin cho vic tnh ton bng my. 1663: Wren xy dng trm t ghi mc nc u tin.
1738: Bernoulli pht trin mi quan h gia tc v p sut trong dng chy.
1769: Herberden pht hin s bin i ca ma ma theo cao.
1775: Chezy nu ra cng thc dng chy trong knh h.
1797: Venturi nu ra cng thc tnh dng chy trong ng khi c hnh dng co hp li.
Th k XIX:
1802: Dalton pht hin mi quan h gia bc hi v p sut hi.
1851: Muvaney nu ra khi nim thi gian tp trung dng chy v dn ra cng thc t l ni ting
Q = CIF.
1856: Darey vi l thuyt v dng chy ngm.
1885: Maning vi cng thc dng chy Chezy - Manning.
T 1865-1876 Nga I.S. Lliasky a ra l thuyt v s chuyn ng ca nc trong dng sng v s
hnh thnh sng ngi (1893); V.M.Lochin a ra l thuyt " C cu dng sng "(`1897).
T 1878 n 1908 E. Vopakep phn tch dao ng ca dng chy trong nhiu nm, pht hin tnh
ng b ca dng chy v ma khng nh s ng n kin ca Vaiaykp: "Sng ngi l sn phm
ca kh hu".

Vo cui th k XIX cng trnh nghin cu ca Penc v ch ma dng sng anyp. Trong
Penc ln u tin dng phng trnh cn bng nc kho st bc hi t mt lu vc. M,
Niuenln ln u tin xy dng bn ng tr dng chy nm.
Th k XX (cho ti khi m hnh SSARR ra i) thy vn hc pht trin rt mnh m.
1914: Hazen a ra khi nim u tin v thy vn ngu nhin t nn mng tng qut cho Tnh ton
thy vn.
1919: Vin Thy vn Quc gia Lin X c thnh lp iu hnh thng nht ton b cng tc
nghin cu thy vn sng ngi Lin X c.
1924: Poster s dng ng tn sut trong tnh ton thit k.
1929: Polter thc hin nhng c gng u tin m t qu trnh dng chy theo hng nht nh.
1930: Bush xy dng my tnh tng t u tin dng trong thy vn.
1932: Sherman xut khi nim ng n v.
1930: S.N. Kriski -M.F.Menken ra phng php thng k u tin dng trong tnh ton dng chy
sng v D.L.Xkolopski ngh dng phng php thng k xc sut vo vic nghin cu bin ng dng
chy nm. V sau G.A. Alecxayep, G.G. Svannitze tip tc pht trin thy vn ngu nhin Lin X c.
1933: Horton a ra l thuyt thm.
1935: Mocarthy a ra phng php din ton Muskingum.
1942: Geumbel ra l thuyt gi tr cc tr dng trong thy vn.
1943: My tnh th h I ra i c dng trong tnh ton thy vn.
1945: S.N.Kriski-M.F.Menken ra phng php K.M dng trong tnh ton iu tit h cha th hai.
1948: Linsley s dng phng php tng t in trong tnh ton l.
1949: My tnh th h II ra i c dng trong thy vn.
1950: Sugawara xut m hnh u tin v pha mt t ca tun hon thy vn.
1951: Kohler, Lunsley s dng k thut tng quan hp trc.
1955: Lighthile v Whihfam a ra l thuyt v sng ng lc.
1956: Suganawa a ra m hnh Tank - l m hnh c dng nhiu trn th gii.
1956: S dng phng php phn tch h thng ti nguyn nc qua chng trnh ti nguyn nc
Stanford. My tnh th h III ra i c dng trong thy vn.
1957: Nash xut khi nim ng n v tc thi.
1958: M hnh SSARR ra i.
Trong nhng nm tip theo phng hng ton thy vn pht trin mnh m, ch ring trong lnh vc
m hnh tt nh c th k ra hng lot m hnh ni ting:
1959- 1960: M hnh Stanford.
!968: M hnh Kutchment v m hnh Hyrenn.
1970: Box v Jenkins a ra m hnh Arima.
T 1971 -1990 hng thy vn tnh ton pht trin rt mnh m v a dng.
T 1990 -nay thy vn hc hin i i hi s kt hp ca nhiu lnh vc cc khoa hc Tri t, c
bit l h thng thng tin a l.

10

1.2.2. Tng hp, phn chia cc giai on pht trin thy vn

im li nhng s kin lch s trong qu trnh pht trin thy vn, kt hp vi s phn tch iu kin
pht trin kinh t - x hi trong tng giai on c th cho php ta tm thi phn nh ra 3 thi k pht trin
ca khoa hc thy vn. Mi thi k c nhng i tng nghin cu ring, mang sc thi ring trong ni
dung nghin cu cng nh trong phng php lun. Nhng thi k l:
1. Thi k thy vn a l: i tng nghin cu ca thi k ny l m t thy vc a l ring r.
Thy vn mang sc thi khoa hc t nhin n thun vi ni dung nghin cu ch yu l gii quyt hin
tng thy vn, tnh ton thnh phn ca cn cn nc cng nh tun hon thy vn, phn vng, phn khu
xy dng cc bn ng tr thy vn. V phng php phn tch vi m thng p dng cc phng php
thc nghim.
2. Thi k thy vn k thut (hay thy vn ng dng ): i tng nghin cu ca thi k ny l xem
mi quan h gia input v ouput trong h thng (theo khi nim a ra ca ooge). thi k ny thy vn
khng ch mang sc thi khoa hc-t nhin n thun m cn kt hp gia khoa hc t nhin v khoa hc
k thut. Ni dung ch yu l phn tch, tnh ton mi quan h gia input v ouput (nh ma - dng chy),
s dng phng php phn khu hoc ng tr i vi cc thnh phn thy vn, phn tch thng s ca cc
cng thc tnh ton. V phng din nghin cu chuyn sang phn tch chi tit (hay phn tch thnh
phn). Phng php o c thu thp s liu c pht trin thng qua li im quan trc trn phm vi ln.
3. Thi k thy vn ti nguyn nc: y l giai on pht trin hin nay ca thy vn. c im ch
yu ca giai on ny l s can thip mnh m ca con ngi vo qu trnh thy vn. Do i tng
nghin cu ch yu xem xt mi quan h gia cung v cu v nc trong h thng.
Do s tc ng ca con ngi tr thnh nhn t ng k nn thy vn mang sc thi hn hp ca
khoa hc t nhin, khoa hc k thut v khoa hc x hi. Ni dung nghin cu ch yu l nh gi, phn
tch d bo nhng bin i do tc ng ca con ngi. V phng din nghin cu, ch yu l phn tch h
thng. Phng php o c thu thp s liu ch yu l o c t ng.
C th nu ln mt s ch nghin cu chnh ca thy vn trong giai on ny l:
- Phn tch h thng ti nguyn nc.
- M hnh ho thy vn, c bit l m hnh phn b.
- Thy vn trong cc mi trng c th: th, rng, kho nc, cc vng canh tc cng nghip, thy
vn vng gip ranh triu mn...
Trong tng lai, thy vn trong mi trng c th s ng mt vai tr quan trng c th to ra mt
giai on pht trin mi ca thy vn. y l mt im ng ch i vi chng ta. Vit Nam cc vn
v thy vn th, thy vn rng... cn t c ch . Trong khi lnh vc ny th gii nghin cu
hon thin. Nn chng i vi nc ta, hng pht trin ca thy vn th k XXI s theo hng "hot ng
thy vn i vo chuyn ngnh bm st thc tin mi vng c c th ring, theo yu cu ca sn xut
nng lm nghip, khai thc thy in, giao thng xy dng".
Ngoi phn chia lch s pht trin ca thy vn qua 3 giai on trn Ventechen cn chia lch s pht
trin ra lm 8 giai on:
1. Giai on suy on trc nm

1400.

2. Giai on quan st

1400 - 1600.

3. Giai on o c n gin

1600 - 1700.

4. Giai on thc nghim

1700 - 1800.

11

5. Giai on i mi ng k

1800 - 1900.

6. Giai on ch ngha thc nghim

1900 - 1930.

7. Giai on phn tch quan h nhn qu

1930 - 1950.

8. Giai on l thuyt ho m hnh thy vn, thy vn h thng

1950-n nay.

1.2.3. Lch s pht trin thy vn Vit Nam

nc ta thy vn cng c lch s pht trin kh lu. T thi c xa t tin ta ch quan st cc
hin tng t nhin, thu thp mt s kin thc thy vn ng dng trc tip trong sn xut hng ngy.
3000 nm trc Cng nguyn, t i L Vng vng duyn hi c Bi ca con nc; tuy cha c
chnh xc v t m nhng c tc dng i vi sn xut khi cha c lch thy triu. Khong 2000 nm trc
thi Giao Ch, nhn dn ta bit li dng thy triu ly nc ngt ti rung. Vo khong th k XIX
di triu T c, Nguyn Cng Tr li dng nc thy triu ln xung ng vin nhn dn o vt
mng ngi, quai ln bin bin c mt vng bi bin Pht Dim hoang vu thnh ng rung ph nhiu
bt ngt. Trong lnh vc qun s, cha ng ta bit li dng kin thc thy vn mt cch ti tnh nh
tan qun xm lc. Nm 43 trc Cng nguyn, nhn dn ta bit quan st mc nc sng Hng xy
dng sng Hng bo v cho ng bng Bc B ph nhiu v c Thng Long.
Cui th k XIX vi mc ch khai thc thuc a, thc dn Php t mt s trm thy vn trn
sng Hng, sng , sng L v vng dn c tr ph, t ai ph nhiu nh cc trm ven sng ung,
sng Luc.... S trm quan trc tha tht, quy phm o c khng r rng nn s liu c chnh xc
khng cao. Thc t cng tc thy vn nc ta ch c bt u sau ha bnh lp li nm 1954. Chng ta bt
tay vo cng cuc khi phc kinh t v bc u xy dng c s vt cht cho ch ngha x hi. Do nc ta
l mt nc nng nghip nn cng tc thy li c t ln hng u vi hai nhim v chnh l chng hn
hn v chng l lt.
Trong Ngh quyt B Chnh tr Trung ng ng thng XII nm 1958 nu r: Vic tr thy cc dng
sng ln l nhim v quan trng ca ngnh thy li. Chng ta phi tng bc tin hnh tr thy tn gc,
khai thc cc con sng ln nh sng Hng, sng Thi Bnh, sng M Kng.... Trc ht phi tp trung lc
lng nghin cu tr thy sng Hng, v l sng Hng uy hip nghim trng ng bng Bc B ph nhiu
rng ln.
phc v cho nhim v quan trng trn y ta bt u khi phc cc trm o c c v tin hnh
quy hoch li trm c bn trn min Bc. U ban khai thc v tr thy sng Hng c thnh lp. Nm
1960 Cc Thy vn c thnh lp. n nay, trn lnh th nc ta c 106 con sng chnh v 1360 ph lu
cp I n cp VI, trn c 203 trm o c thy vn.
V i ng cn b, ta c mt i ng mnh c kh nng m bo gii quyt nhng vn thy vn,
thy li, iu tra c bn ra. Nhiu cng trnh v thnh tu khoa hc ca lnh vc thy vn hc c
cng b. Tp ch Khoa hc Kh tng Thy vn, Tp ch Khoa hc Thy li ra i.

1.3. PHNG PHP NGHIN CU

Khi nghin cu ch v tnh ton cc c trng dng chy , s dng cc phng php nh sau:

1.3.1. Phng php kho st trm o

Khi mng li quan trc thy vn dy c vi chui quan trc di, c kh nng bao qut ton b
lu vc nghin cu. Phng php ny c s dng rng ri ti nhiu nc trn cc lnh th nh. Thc

12

cht ca phng php ny l phng php trung bnh s hc, hoc hn na l phng php trung bnh c
trng s.

1.3.2. Phng php khi qut

Dng cc s liu thu thp qua mng li quan trc kh tng thy vn xc nh qui lut hnh thnh
dng chy, s phn b ca cc c trng dng chy theo lnh th v s bin thin ca chng theo thi gian.
iu ny t c nh s phn tch bn cht vt l, a l ca hin tng hay qu trnh ang xt t nhm
cc yu t nh hng n s hnh thnh v pht trin dng chy cng nh cc c trng ca n. Cng c
th tng hp dng chy t vic nghin cu cc thnh phn cu thnh dng chy ring r.

1.3.3. Phng php m hnh ho ton hc v thc nghim

Khi phn tch s liu thc nghim theo tng phng php thng s dng rt rng ri cc phng
php thng k ton hc v l thuyt xc sut.
Ph thuc vo trng thi nghin cu hin tng v yu cu bi ton, phng php khi qut khoa hc
thy vn c th chia ra: 1) phng php h s tng cng; 2) phng php bn v ni suy a l; 3)
phng php tng t thy vn.
Phng php h s tng cng l vic phn tch cc yu t ch o ca quan h ang c nghin cu
vi cc nhn t tc ng bng cch a cc h s tng cng theo quan h c thit lp, ri bng vic phn
tch bc dn cc thnh phn c xc nh trong mi quan h ton - l, t bn cht tc ng ca mt s yu
t ch o a ra cng thc tnh ton chung.
C s ca phng php ny l da trn vic coi dng chy l sn phm ca nhiu qu trnh a l t
nhin (kh hu v mt m) tc ng ln n. Loi ny thng gp nht nhm cc cng thc trit gim
dng chy cc i.
Gi s mun xc nh lp dng chy y t tp hp cc yu t a l t nhin trn mt lu vc c th
no t quan h ca i lng dng chy A = f( F, x, I, 1,2, 3,...,) vi F- din tch lu vc; x- lng
ma; I - dc bnh qun lu vc; 1, 2, 3.... l h s rng, ao h, m ly... ta c th c mi lin h t
cng thc:

y=

(F + 1)n

.
(1.1)

Trong (1.1) A - H s a l tng cng cc yu t hnh thnh v tc ng n dng chy. Nu c ti

liu quan trc y th c th xc nh A bng cch:
T (1.1) logarit ho hai v ta c:
lny = ln A - nln (F+1).
T (1.1) theo s liu dng quan h lny =f[ln (F+1)].
T gi tr lnA trn H.1.1 xc nh A, n = tg, thay vo cng thc (1.1) ta c cng thc kinh nghim
xc nh y vi tham s A.
Cng t v d trn nu ta mun xc nh lp dng chy y t s liu ma x th cng thc s dng c
dng:
y =A1 x + b

(1.2)

vi A1 - h s a l tng hp phn nh quan h gia ma v lp dng chy, b - lp dng chy khi

cha c ma.

13

lny

lnA

ln[(F+1)]
Hnh 1.1. Quan h lny = f[ln (F+1)]

x
Hnh 1.2. Quan h y = f(x)

Tng t nh vy c th xc nh c cc tham s a l cn tm qua h s a l tng hp trn c s

nhn bit dng quan h gia cc yu t v vic phn tch bn cht hin tng hay qu trnh ca cc yu
t nh hng.
Phng php bn v ni suy a l da trn c s gi thit rng cc c trng ca dng chy cng
nh cc yu t cnh quan a l thay i t t theo lnh th v tun theo qui lut a i.
Ni dung ca phng php nh sau:
Theo s trn H.1.3, y1, y2, y3, y4 l gi tr cc ng ng mc lp dng chy trn lu vc. Khong
cch L, Ly c th xc nh bng cch o trc tip trn bn . Cn xc nh gi tr dng chy y i qua im
Y trn ng ng mc gi s By. Theo phng php ni suy tuyn tnh a l ta c:

y3 y 2 y3 y
=
.
L
Ly

(1.3)

Bin i cng thc (1.3) ta nhn c:

y = y3

( y3 y 2 ) L y
L

(1.4)

Cc gi tr v phi ca (1.4) c xc nh do y tnh c d dng.

Phng php tng t thy vn ph thuc vo vic la chn cc lu vc tng t vi l lun rng, do
dng chy l sn phm ca kh hu v chu s tc ng cc iu kin a l t nhin nn vi cc lu vc
tng t (c cng mt iu kin a l cnh quan ging nhau) th dng chy ca chng cng tng t nhau.
C cc c trng dng chy ca lu vc tng t ta c th xc nh cc c trng dng chy ca lu vc
ang xt qua vic xc nh mc quan h gia hai lu vc tnh ton s hiu chnh. Phng php ny
rt hay dng khi ko di cc chui s liu. C th ni dung phng php s c trnh by trong chng 4.

14

y4
y3
By
y2
y1

Y
LY
L

Hnh 1.3. S tnh dng chy

theo phng php ni suy a l

1.3.4.Phng php thng k

Cc phng php thng k tham gia vo cc bi ton tnh ton thy vn trong rt nhiu ng dng c
th. Hu nh ton thng k c mt trong mi lnh vc tnh ton v c bit ng vai tr quan trng trong
khu x l s liu - d kin thng tin u vo quan trng nht ca bi ton tnh ton thy vn bng mt
phng php bt k no. V tm quan trng ca n nh vy nn tch ring ra mt mn hc chuyn "
Xc sut thng k trong thy vn" v trong gio trnh ny khng c nhc li, nhng trong tng bi ton
c th m cc chng sau chng ta xem xt cng s gp cc php ton thng k trong li gii.
Bi ton thng k thng gp trong tnh ton thy vn l kim tra tnh ng nht, tnh ph hp ca s
liu qua vic la chn cc ch tiu trn c s phn tch ngha vt l ca hin tng; dng ng cong
phn b ca chui v cc tham s c trng ca n; cc hm s dng m t cc giai on ca qu trnh
dng chy: hm tng quan, hm cu trc, hm ph; hm phn tch nhn t v.v.. Ngay c khi s dng cc
m hnh th vic xc nh cc tham s, cc thnh phn cng thng xuyn p dng cc li gii t php ton
l thuyt xc sut thng k. Phng php thng k c s dng rt rng ri trong thy vn hc, ni chung
v trong tnh ton thy vn, ni ring.
Ngoi ra cn dng cc phng php cn bng nc, cn bng nhit v.v.. da trn nguyn tc ca nh
lut bo ton vt cht v nng lng m ta s trc tip kho st chng 3.

15

Chng 2
S HNH THNH DNG CHY
2.1. KHI NIM V CH NC LC A
Ton b nhng c im v s thay i trng thi nc theo thi gian tp hp li thnh khi nim v
ch nc hay ch thy vn. Ch thy vn biu hin trong s dao ng trong thi hn nhiu nm,
ma v trong ngy m ca cc c trng:
1) Mc nc (ch mc nc);
2) Lng nc (ch dng chy);
3) Nhit ca nc (ch nhit);
4) Lng nc v cht rn do dng nc cun theo (ch ph sa);
5) Thnh phn v nng cht ha tan (ch ho hc ca nc);
6) S thay i lng sng (ch din bin lng sng);
7) Hin tng bng gi (ch bng).
Ngoi ra cn xt ch sng, ch lu tc... Nhng s dao ng ca mc nc v lng nc theo
thi gian thng c thng nht thnh khi nim ch nc.
Tu theo mc nh hng ca cng trnh thy li ngi ta phn ra ch thy vn iu tit v
ch thy vn t nhin khi cng trnh c nh hng. Tu theo loi i tng nc ngi ta phn bit ch
nc sng, ch nc h, ch nc ngm, ch nc m ly.
Dng chy sng ngi c ngha rt ln i vi thc t cuc sng. T cc c trng ca ch thy
vn suy ra mc ti tiu ca ng rung, tr lng ti nguyn nc v qui m ca nh my thy in,
ca h thng ng giao thng thy v.v..

2.2. N V O DNG CHY

Trong tnh ton thy vn, nghin cu dng chy ngi ta thng dng 7 n v o c c bn
c quy nh trong nghin cu dng chy sng ngi nh sau:
1. Lu lng nc: K hiu l Q l lng nc chy qua mt mt ct ca mt con sng no trong
n v thi gian l 1 giy. n v lu lng (m3/s). Ngoi lu lng tc thi trn ta cn dng lu lng
bnh qun ngy, 10 ngy, thng, nm v nhiu nm...
2. Tng lng dng chy: K hiu l W(m3) l lng nc i qua mt mt ct no trong thi on
T n v l m3 hay km3.
Quan h gia tng lng W v lu lng Q l:
t2

W = Qdt

(2.1)

t1

3. Mun dng chy: K hiu l q, hoc M l lng nc c kh nng sinh sn ra trn mt n v

din tch lu vc l 1 km2 trong mt n v thi gian. n v ca n l m3/skm2 hay l/skm2.
Gia mun lu lng q (hoc M) v lu lng Q c quan h nh sau:
q(l / s.km 2 ) =

16

1000.Q(m 3 s)
.
F ( km 2 )

(2.2)

Trong Q - lu lng nc, F- din tch lu vc ti mt ct khng ch. Cng nh lu lng, mun
cng c th l m un tc thi v m un trung bnh thi on.
4. Lp dng chy: K hiu l y l chiu cao ca lp nc c kh nng sinh sn ra c trong khi ma
tri u ra trn b mt din tch lu vc. n v ca lp dng chy c cng n v vi ma l (mm).
Gia tng lng, m un dng chy q v lp dng chy y c quan h vi nhau:
y(mm) =

W (m 3 )
QT
(mm) =
= qT .
3
2
10 F ( km )
F

(2.3)

Trong khi tnh ton thng ly thi hn l nm. Do gia m un q v lp dng chy y vi thi hn
l nm c quan h nh sau:
y(mm / nm) = 31,5q
(2.4)
hoc
q(l / skm 2 ) = 0,0317 y

(2.5)

Tnh cht hp l ca cng thc (2.4), (2.5) c th chng minh nh sau: nu biu th chiu cao lp
dng chy bng y mm/nm v din tch lu vc l F - km2 th tng lng dng chy t din tch ny l W
s bng:
y
W = 3 F .10 6 m 3 / n m = y.F .10 3 m 3 / n m .
10
Lng nc phi chy trong mt nm, ngha l trong vng 31,5.106 giy l thi gian tnh ra giy ca
mt nm. Nu mun tnh bng q (l/skm2) th ta c ng thc:
q.

31,5.10 6
F (m 3 / n m) = y.F10 3 / n m .
10 3

(2.6)

T y ta nhn ra biu thc (2.4) v (2.5) ng cho thi on tnh l 1 nm. i vi thi on bt k
ta c:
y = q.N

(2.7)

hoc
q=

y
N

(2.8)
y N l s giy tnh theo n v triu trong thi on cho bit. i vi 1 thng 30 ngy, N = 2,59 v
thng 31 ngy N = 2,68 v.v...
5. Dng chy chun: K hiu Q0(m3/s), v W0(m3), M0(1/skm2), y0(mm). Tr s dng chy dao ng
t nm ny n nm khc. Ch khi thi gian tnh lu lng trung bnh di, c trng dng chy trung
bnh ny mi n nh. Ta gi n l dng chy trung bnh nhiu nm hoc dng chy chun. Dng chy
chun c th biu th bng lu lng Q0(m3/s),tng lng W0(m3/s), m un M0(l/skm2) hoc y0(mm).

Qo =

1 n
Qi
n i =1

(2.9)

6. H s m un: k hiu l K l mt h s khng th nguyn. K l t s gia lu lng dng chy

ca mt nm no so vi chun dng chy Q0.

K=

Qi
Q0

(2.10)

7. H s dng chy: k hiu l l t s chiu cao lp dng chy y trong thi on no trn lng
ma ri tng ng x vi thi on trn lu vc ta xt:
17

y
x

(2.11)

l mt s khng th nguyn v lun b hn 1 vit theo dng s thp phn 0 1.

2.3. CC C TRNG CA LU VC
2.3.1. Cc c trng ca mng li a l thy vn
1. Chiu di sng L l khong cch t ngun n ca sng c o bng km. Thng di sng
c xc nh trc tip trn bn a hnh bng dng c o ng cong. Thng thng phi o hai ln,
nu chnh lch s o khng vt qu 2% th nhn gi tr trung bnh
ca hai ln o lm gi tr chiu di sng theo cng thc:
L = MKa

L1

vi M - gi tr trung bnh s o, K - h s hiu chnh un khc, a - h

s chuyn i t l bn , L - chiu di thc t ca sng.
2. H s un khc sng c trng cho mc un khc (H.2.1)
v c thit lp qua t s gia di sng thc t L v ng
thng ni gia ngun v ca sng l.

l1
L2

3.Mt mng li sng l di sng trn mt ki l mt

vung ca lnh th. H s mt mng li sng c xc nh
theo cng thc:

l2

vi - mt li sng km/km2;

(2.12)

- tng di lng sng trong

lu vc km; F - din tch lu vc km

Hnh 2.1.
Xc nh h s un khc

H s mt li sng l ch s c trng cho s pht trin

dng chy mt trn lnh th ang xt. Nu xc nh trn bn t l
cng ln th chnh xc ca vic xc nh h s mt li sng cng cao.

2.3.2. Cc c trng hnh thi ca lu vc

a)
b)

Hnh 2.2. Xc nh di lu vc
a) theo ng thng; b) theo trung tuyn

18

1. Din tch lu vc F(km2) l mt phn b mt tri t k c chiu su lp ph th nhng m t

nc chy vo i tng nghin cu. Din tch lu vc c xc nh qua bn a hnh t l trung bnh
vi my o din tch hoc phng php k . C th phn bit din tch lu vc mt v din tch lu vc
ngm. Thng thng hai din tch ny khng trng nhau, song do s kh xc nh chnh xc din tch lu
vc ngm nn khi tnh ton thng ch dng din tch lu vc mt v thut ng din tch lu vc l chung
cho c hai khi nim trn.
2. Chiu di lu vc L(km) l khong cch xc nh theo ng thng t ca sng n im xa nht
trn ng phn thy so vi ca trong trng hp hnh dng lu vc cn i.(H.2.2a)
Trong trng hp lu vc dng hnh cong, chiu di lu vc o theo ng trung tuyn dn qua trung
tm lu vc (H.2.2b).
3. rng trung bnh lu vc Btb (km) xc nh bng cch chia din tch F cho chiu di lu vc L:

B tb =

F
.
L

(2.13)

4. rng ln nht ca lu vc Bmax l khong cch ng vung gc ln nht vi di lu vc.

5. H s i xng lu vc a c trng cho phn b khng ng u ca din tch pha tri (Ftr) v
phi (Fph) ca lu vc (so vi dng sng chnh) v c tnh ton theo cng thc:

a=

Ftr F ph
( Ftr + F ph ) / 2

(2.14)

6. H s gin lu vc c trng cho t s di sng v rng trung bnh lu vc v c xc

nh theo cng thc:
=

L2
.
F

(2.15)

7. H s hnh dng lu vc l i lng nghch o ca gin c trng bi t s ca rng B v

di sng L hoc l din tch F vi bnh phng chiu di:
'=

B
F
= 2.
L
L

(2.16)

8. H s pht trin ng phn thy m c trng cho s li lm hnh dng lu vc v c tnh nh t

s chiu di ng thy phn S(km) vi ng trn S1 c din tch bng din tch lu vc F c ngha l:

m=

S
S
S
=
= 0,282
S1 2 F
F

(2.17)

m 1, m cng ln th hnh dng ca lu vc cng khc xa ng trn.

Tng
B tri

Ca

Ngun

B phi
Hnh 2.3. th tng trng din tch lu vc

19

9. th tng trng din tch lu vc l th m t s tng dn ca din tch lu vc t ngun n

ca sng. Trc honh l chiu di sng t ngun n ca, trc tung l cc phn din tch gia cc ph lu.
Nhng thay i t ngt trn th tng ng vi din tch cc sng nhnh. th c thc hin cho c
b tri ln b phi ca sng chnh.(H.2.3)

2.3.3. Cc yu t mt m
Cc yu t mt m c hiu l cc thnh phn ca mi trng a l t nhin, c trng cho tnh
c th ca lu vc. N c th l a hnh, iu kin a cht th nhng, mc ph rng, m ly
v.v..
1. cao trung bnh ca lu vc sng ngi Htb c tnh theo cng thc:

H tb =

f1 H 1 + f 2 H 2 + L + f n H n
F

(2.18)

vi Htb - cao trung bnh ca lu vc. f1, f2,..., fn - din tch thnh phn ca lu vc nm gia cc ng
ng mc, km2; H1, H2,..., Hn - cao trung bnh gia cc ng ng thi, F - din tch lu vc.
2. Chiu di trung bnh ca sn dc lu vc sng l (km) c xc nh:

F
1
=
2L 2

(2.19)

Do
dng
vi L - chiu di lu vc; F - din tch lu vc, - mt li sng km/km2.
chy thng khng bt u t ng thy phn m cch n mt khong no nn cng thc tnh ton
thng dng l:
v
1
.
l =
2,25
3. dc sng trn mt on no c th c xc nh theo mt ct dc ca sng. Cng thc
thng c p dng:
H H 2 H
(2.20)
I = 1
=
l
l
I l dc, H1, H2 l cao im u v im cui ca on sng, m; l l chiu di on sng, km.
4. dc trung bnh ca lu vc Itb c tnh theo cng thc:

l +l
h 0 n + l1 + l2 + L + ln 1
2

I tb =
F

(2.21)

vi h - cao a hnh (hiu cao ca hai ng ng mc k nhau), l0, l1, l2... ln-1, di ng ng
mc trong gii hn lu vc, km; F - din tch lu vc, km2;
5. H s ao h c trng cho din tch ao h v cc thy vc khc trn lu vc tnh bng phn trm
din tch ca n so vi ton b lu vc:

a, h =
vi

a, h

f
F

a, h

100%

- tng din tch mt h ao v cc thy vc khc, km2; F- din tch lu vc, km2.

6. H s m ly l t s gia din tch m ly v din tch lu vc tnh bng %.

20

(2.22)

 dl =

f dl
100 %
F

(2.23)

vi fdl l din tch m ly, km2.

7. H s rng l t s gia din tch rng c trn lu vc v din tch lu vc c tnh bng %.
f
(2.24)
r = r 100 %
F
vi fr - din tch rng trn lu vc, km2.
8. Nhn t a mo dng chy c trng cho cong v gin a hnh trn lu vc v c xc
nh theo cng thc:

l
I

(2.25)

vi l - chiu di sn dc, m; I - dc sn; %0; H s ny do A. N. Befanhi xut.

9. H s hnh thi thy vn l t s gia tng chiu di h thng sng l vi lu lng trung bnh
nhiu nm Q0 trm khng ch ca h thng:

Q =

l
Q0

(2.26)

vi Q tnh bng km.s/m3 n c trng cho chiu di li sng cn thit hnh thnh lu lng nc nhiu
nm vo 1 m3/s. H s ny do I.N. Garxman xng.

2.3.4. Cc c trng kh hu
Cc c trng kh hu trn lu vc trc ht l cc yu t kh tng, tham gia (trc tip hoc gin
tip) vo vic hnh thnh cc qu trnh thy vn khc nhau, ng thi l thnh phn tnh ton cc i lng
thy vn - l ma v bc hi trn lu vc. C th v cc yu t ny c trnh by k trong Thy vn
i cng, trong cc qui phm ca ngnh. Gio trnh ny s khng trnh by chi tit m ch im qua mt
s phng php tnh ton.
1. Lng ma trung bnh trn lu vc c th xc nh bng nhng phng php sau y:
+ Phng php trung bnh s hc. Lng ma trung bnh lu vc c tnh nh l bnh qun tng
lng ma o ti cc trm chia u cho tng s trm o ma trn lu vc. Phng php ny c u im l
tnh ton nhanh, song ch ph hp vi lnh th c mng li quan trc dy, phn b ng u. Hn na
phng php ny cng cha tnh n s thay i ca ma theo chiu thng ng nn vi a hnh phc tp
(min ni) khng cho chnh xc cao.
+ Phng php k vung. Vi phng php ny din tch lu vc c chia ra cc vung bng
nhau sao cho mi t nht c mt trm o ma. Lng ma bnh qun lu vc c tnh nh l tng lng
ma trn cc vung chia u cho s cc vung . Khi lng ma trong tng vung c tnh nh
l trung bnh s hc (vi c nhiu trm o) hoc l chnh lng ma ca trm o ma trong (vi ch
c mt trm o). Phng php ny kh chnh xc nhng cng knh, hn na iu kin thc hin n cng
cn mt mng li quan trc ln m thc t thng khng p ng c.
+ Phng php ng ng tr l vic xy dng cc ng ng v v tnh lng ma bnh qun lu
vc theo cng thc:

X tb =

x1 f1 + x2 f 2 + L + xn f n
F

(2.27)

21

vi x1, x2,..., xn - na tng lng ma ca hai ng ng v k nhau; f1, f2,...,fn l din tch thnh phn gia
cc ng ng v.
+ Phng php a gic xc nh kch thc khu vc din tch lu vc gn vi cc trm o ma khc
nhau. Kch thc chnh l trng s phn bit lng ma t trm ny hoc trm khc tham gia vo lng
ma bnh qun lu vc. Cch xc nh cc khu vc bng cch ni cc trm o ma thnh mt tam gic.
T cnh cc tam gic v cc ng trung trc. im giao cc ng trung trc chnh l nh a gic
cha trm o ma. Theo phng php ny, cng thc tnh ma bnh qun lu vc c vit nh sau:

X 'tb =

x1' f1' + x2' f 2' + L + xn' f n'

F

(2.28)

vi x'1,x'2,...,x'n - tng lng ma ca cc trm o tng ng; f'1, f'2,...,f'n - din tch cc a gic gn vi cc
trm.

Hnh 2.4. Quan h gia bc hi trung bnh nhiu nm v lng ma, lng nhit bc x

2. Bc hi t b mt lu vc gm c bc hi t mt nc v bc hi t mt t (gm c bc hi trc
tip t t v bc hi qua mt thong ca thm thc vt). Cng nh o ma, o c bc hi c trnh
by chi tit cc gio trnh khc nh cn bng nc v cc qui phm. y s khng trnh by chi tit m
ch nh gi n nh l mt thnh phn ca phng trnh cn bng nc.
+ Bc hi t mt nc: Khi c ti liu quan trc kh tng bc hi c th tnh theo cng thc sau:

E 0 = 0,14n(l 0 l 200 )(1 + 0,72u 200 )

(2.29)

vi l0 - gi tr trung bnh ca n hi hi nc cc i tnh theo nhit nc trong thy vc; l200 -

n hi hi nc trung bnh ( m tuyt i ca khng kh) trn cao 200 cm trn mt nc; u200 - tc
gi trung bnh cao 200 cm trn thy vc; n-s ngy trong thi on tnh ton.

22

Khi khng c s liu quan trc th bc hi c tnh theo s liu ca trm o gn nht vi thy vc
theo hng dn ca qui phm.
+ Bc hi trung bnh nhiu nm t mt t c xc nh theo bn ng tr bc hi hoc tnh ton
theo nhit v m khng kh.
Nu c lng ma th c th tnh ton theo cng thc Buc M.I.:

E=

R0 X
L

R
0

1 l XL th XL
R

(2.30)

vi E - bc hi cm/nm; X - lng ma nm trung bnh cm/nm; R0 - gi tr cn cn bc x i vi b mt

m kcal/(cm2.nm); L - nhit lng ring ho hi bng 0,6 kcal/nm(H.2.4).
Ngy nay tnh bc hi cn c nhiu ton , tiu biu l cc ton Konstanchinov A.R.,
P.C.Kuzin v B.V. Poliacov.

2.4. BN CHT VT L CA DNG CHY

S hnh thnh dng chy t lc ma ri trn b mt lu vc n khi thot ra ca v bin l mt qu
trnh lin tc. Bt c dng tn ti no ca nc trn b mt, trong tng su ca t , trong chuyn ng
u tun theo mt qui lut nht nh tho mn phng trnh lin tc v phng trnh chuyn ng. Ni
cch khc, trong qu trnh vn ng dng chy lun bt buc tun theo cc nguyn tc cn bng vt cht v
cn bng nng lng.
Tn ti nhiu l thuyt v m t dng chy. Theo hng m t vt l thnh cng nht l nh bc hc
Nga M.A. Velicanov v sau ny c G.P Kalinhin, A.N. Befanhi, G.A Alexayev, S.N. Kriski v M. Ph.
Menkel, A.V. Ogievski, B.V. Poliacov, Xocolovski D.L v P.A. Urvaiev c th v chi tit a vo cng
thc tnh ton. Bi khng th gii thiu ht cc cng trnh nghin cu trn nn trong gio trnh ny chng
ti xin lc mt s nt c bn ca qu trnh hnh thnh dng chy trn l thuyt dng chy sn dc ca
A.N. Befanhi.
Theo A. N. Befanhi qu trnh chuyn ng dng chy c to thnh v pht trin qua ba giai on:
1. Giai on to dng: t lc ma ri n khi bt u c dng chy xut hin.
2. Giai on dng chy sn dc: t lc bt u c dng chy n lc kt thc hot ng ca dng
chy trn b mt sn dc ca lu vc. Trn sn dc dng chy tn ti di cc dng khc nhau, nhng
cng chung mt bn cht vt l.
3. Giai on dng chy trong sng ngi c xt t lc nc bt u nhp vo sng v h thng sng,
cng tun theo cc qui lut ca phng trnh lin tc v phng trnh cn bng chuyn ng.
Cc bc chng minh vn ny s ln lt c xt qua cc giai on dng chy.

2.4.1. Giai on to dng

Giai on to dng bt u t lc ma ri trn lu vc. Ht nc ri xung mt t, thm vo lng t
lm tng m ca t dn tch t v to thnh dng chy. c th to dng t ma ngay t lc xut hin
cn phi tho mn mt s iu kin.
Xt mt on sn dc c ma ri vi cng a(t) v thm vi cng i(t). Xut hin 2 kh nng:
1. a (t) > i (t) xut hin ngay dng chy. V c th vit cng thc to dng nh sau:

a(t ) i (t ) = h(t )

(2.31)

23

vi a(t) l cng ma ri trong thi gian t, i(t) l cng thm trong thi gian t, th h(t) gi l cng
to dng.
2. a (t) i (t) cha xut hin dng chy, v ma ri xung bao nhiu th thm ht by nhiu, sau
mt thi gian no bo ha nc trong tng su t th bt u xut hin dng chy mt, tt c
lng ma ri u to thnh dng chy v lc
a (t) = h (t).
Phng trnh (2.31) l mt dng ca phng trnh lin tc.

2.4.2. Giai on dng chy sn dc

Sau giai on to dng bt u giai on dng chy trn sn dc. Theo iu kin hnh thnh dng
chy trn sn dc ngi ta phn bit c 4 dng dng chy c bn nh sau:
Dng chy treo. Ta xt mt bi ton c th:
X

a (t)

B
i (t)

Q1

(t)

KJ
k (t)

Q2
B

Hnh 2.5. S cn cn nc trong giai on dng chy trn sn dc

Cho mt on sn dc dx c ma ri vi cng a(t), cng thm ca t l i(t) trong thi gian

l dt. Gi din tch thit din t l (t) (H.2.5). Cng thm ti tng th hai l k(t). Lu lng nhp ti
mt ct A-A l Q1, lu lng ti u ra B-B l Q2.
iu kin tn ti dng chy treo l:
a(t) > i(t) v a(t) - i (t) = h(t)

to dng chy mt.

i(t)>>k (t)

khng thm xung tng su.

Phng trnh cn bng nc vit cho on dx trong thi gian dt nh sau:

Q1dt +

Q
dxdt = Q2 dt .
x

(2.32)

Mt khc nguyn nhn lm thay i cn cn nc trong on dx l do ma to nn:

Q1dt + h(t )dxdt

Thnh phn

dxdt = Q2 dt .
t

(2.33)

dxdt l bin i thit din t trn on dx trong thi gian dt.

t

T (2.32) v (2.33) ta c:

Q
+
= h(t ) .
x t
24

(2.34)

Phng trnh (2.34) c dng l phng trnh lin tc.

Dng chy trn cng vi cc iu kin on sn dc nh dng dng chy treo, c dng chy
trn cn tho mn cc iu kin sau:
a(t) < i (t)

khng c dng chy treo.

X(t) > H; KJ 0
i(t) >> k (t)
vi X(t) - lng nc ma; H- rng ca t trong tng su H; KJ- vn tc chy theo phng nm
ngang trong t.
Dng chy trong trng hp ny xut hin nh sau. Khi cha bo ha nc trong t X(t) H th
cha xut hin dng chy sn dc. Lng nc ma ch cung cp nhm bo ha t. Khi h s dng
chy = 0; Lc bt u xut hin dng chy th ma bao nhiu to thnh dng chy sn dc by nhiu,
lc h s dng chy = 1.
Phng trnh dng chy vit cho giai on ny nh sau:

Q
+
= a(t ) i (t ) = h(t ) vi i(t) = 0 nn a(t) = h(t)
x t
Q
+
= a(t ) .
x t

(2.35)

Phng trnh (2.35) cng l phng trnh lin tc.

Dng chy trong lp cui si. Trong trng hp a(t) < i(t) khng tn ti dng chy treo, KJ 0,
tng t cha cc ht vt cht ln, k(t) 0; tn ti dng chy lp st mt t gi l dng chy trong hnh
lang cui si. Nhiu nh nghin cu chng minh rng, vn tc dng chy trong hnh lang cui si khng
khc nhiu so vi dng chy mt.
Phng trnh dng chy trong lp cui si c th vit l:
Q

+
= KJ ,
x
t
gi s v const , m Q = v ta c:
v

+
= KJ .
x
t

(2.36)

Cng thc (2.36) cng th hin l mt phng trnh lin tc.

Dng chy trong lp t ti xp tn ti vi iu kin: a(t) < i(t) khng tn ti dng chy treo, KJ
0 tn ti dng theo phng nm ngang, X(t) < H khng c dng chy trn. Phng trnh trong
trng hp ny c th vit nh sau:
Q
(2.37)
+
= i(t) k(t).
x t
Phng trnh (2.37) l phng trnh lin tc.
Nh vy c bn dng dng chy trn sn dc t cc cng thc (2.34, 2.35, 2.36, 2.37) u th hin l
mt phng trnh lin tc.

2.4.3. Giai on dng chy trong sng ngi

Giai on dng chy trong sng ngi c xy dng theo l thuyt Befanhi gm c hai pha chnh:

25

Dng chy trong lng sng c s: Lng sng c s c hiu l cc lu vc b, vi php m hnh ho
c th coi lu vc nh mt hnh ch nht c chiu di on sn dc l l, nhp lu l q, rng l B, chiu
di lu vc l L. Cng thc m t dng chy trn lu vc c s c th vit nh sau:

Q
+
= q(t)
x t

(2.38)

hoc l vi v const th (2.38) c th vit:

+
= q(t) .
x t

(2.39)

Dng chy trong h thng sng ngi: Vi h thng sng ngi ta coi nh l mt tp hp n cc lng
sng c s. Mi lu vc sng c s c hai sn dc c chiu di bng 2l, phng trnh vi phn l c dng:

Q
+
= nq(t) .
x t

(2.40)

Gi l mt sng sui trn lu vc, tc l:

B( x)
= B ( x ) .
2l

(2.41)

Q
+
= B( x) q(t)
x t

(2.42)

n=
Th (2.41) vo (2.40) ta c:

B(x) l chiu rng ca lu vc h thng sng. Phng trnh (2.4.2) cng l phng trnh lin tc. T (2.31 2.42) l cc phng trnh m t s hnh thnh dng chy t khi thnh to n vn chuyn trong h thng
sng ngi u c dng l phng trnh lin tc. Vy, bn cht vt l ca dng chy l mt qu trnh lin
tc. Li gii ca cc phng trnh ny s c bn tip chng 7.

2.5. CNG THC CN NGUYN CA DNG CHY

2.5.1. Khi nim v ng cong chy truyn
Lu lng nc o ti mt mt ct no l biu th c trng dng chy ca ton b lu vc m n
khng ch. Trong cc bi ton v dng chy cc i ngi ta thng s dng ng cong tp trung nc
ng thi cn gi l ng cong chy truyn.
ng cong chy truyn l ng ni tt c nhng im ca bn thu nc m t nc ng thi
chy n tuyn khng ch.
ng cong chy truyn tham gia vo rt nhiu cng thc tnh ton dng chy cc i, nhiu m hnh
d bo l v c s dng rt ph bin trong vic m hnh ho cc qu trnh thy vn.

2.5.2. Thnh lp cng thc cn nguyn dng chy

S dng ng cong chy truyn v xt mt lu vc (H.2.6) c s phn b cc ng cong chy
truyn. Gi s trn lu vc c ma ri vi cc lng nc gia nhp l P1, P2, P3 th ta c th m t s
hnh thnh lu lng nc ti tuyn khng ch N nh sau:
Q1 = P1f1
Q2 = P1f2 + P2f1
Q3 = P1f3 + P2f2 + P3f1

26

Q4 = P1f4 + P2f3 + P3f2

Q5 = P1f5 + P2f4 + P3f3
Q6 = P2f5 + P3f4
Q7 = P3f5.
Vit di dng tng qut ta c:

Qi = P1 f i + P2 f i 1 + L + Pi f1

P f
k =1

k i k +1

f .

i k +1 i

(2.43)

f5

f2

f3

f4

f1
Hnh 2.6. Lu vc sng v s ng cong chy truyn

Cng thc (2.43) gi l cng thc cn nguyn dng chy. Cng thc cn nguyn dng chy ch ra qui
lut tp trung nc trn lu vc n trm khng ch vi iu kin s cp nc ng u xy ra trn ton b
lu vc v trn mi n v thi gian (ngy, gi) vi cng nh nhau.
Cng thc cn nguyn dng chy c s dng lm c s ban u cho nhiu m hnh tnh ton
thy vn nh m hnh l tuyn tnh, m hnh Nash,... v tham gia vo nhiu cng thc tnh ton dng chy
cc i m chng ta s cn gp li cc chng sau.

27

Chng 3
PHNG TRNH CN BNG NC
Phng trnh cn bng nc th hin mt nh lut vt l thng dng nht - "nh lut bo ton vt
cht" trong thy vn. Phng trnh cn bng nc l cng c rt hu hiu nh gi ti nguyn nc v
phn tch tnh ton dng chy sng ngi.
Nguyn l cn bng nc xut pht t nh lut bo ton vt cht, i vi mt lu vc c th pht
biu nh sau: "Hiu s lng nc n v ra khi lu vc bng s thay i lng nc trn lu vc
trong mt thi on tnh ton bt k". Phng trnh cn bng nc l s din ton nguyn l ny.
Z2

U1

Z1

U2

Y1

Y2

W1

W2

Hnh 3.1. Lu vc sng v cc thnh phn cn cn nc

3.1. PHNG TRNH CN BNG NC DNG TNG QUT

Ly mt lu vc bt k trn mt t vi gi thit c mt mt tr thng ng bao quanh chu vi lu vc
ti tng khng thm nc (H.3.1). Chn mt thi on t bt k. Da trn nguyn l cn bng nc
gia cc thnh phn n, tr v i ta c phng trnh cn bng nc.
Phn nc n bao gm:
X - lng ma bnh qun trn lu vc,
Z1 - lng nc ngng t trn lu vc,
Y1 - lng dng chy mt n,
W1 - lng dng chy ngm n,
U1 - lng nc tr u thi on t,
Phn nc i gm c:
Z2 - lng nc bc hi trn lu vc,
Y2 - lng dng chy mt chy i,
W2 - lng dng chy ngm chy i,
U2 - lng nc tr cui thi on t.

28

Phng trnh cn bng nc tng qut c dng:

X + Z1 + Y1 + W1 - (Z2 + Y2 + W2) = U2 - U1

(3.1)

hoc l:

X + (Z1 - Z2) + (Y1 - Y2) + (W1 - W2) = U

(3.2)

trong U = U2 - U1.
s dng phng trnh (3.1) v (3.2) cn a tt c thnh phn ca cn cn nc v cng mt n
v th nguyn.

3.2. PHNG TRNH CN BNG NC CHO MT LU VC SNG NGI

Cc lu vc sng thng c gii hn bng ng phn nc lu vc. Ti ng phn nc khng
c s trao i dng chy t ngoi vo v t trong ra. Nc c th ra ngoi lu vc qua mt ct ca sng.
Trong t nhin thu nc mt v thu nc ngm hon ton khng trng nhau nhng v kh xc nh ranh
gii nn thng trong cc tnh ton u gi thit n trng nhau. Thng i vi cc lu vc ln gi thit
c th chp nhn c, nhng vi cc lu vc b c hin tng karst th iu ny c th dn ti sai s
ln khi tnh ton. Do vy cn c phng trnh cn bng nc cho lu vc kn v lu vc h.

3.2.1. Phng trnh cn bng nc cho lu vc kn

Lu vc kn l lu vc c ng phn chia nc mt trng vi ng phn chia nc ngm, khi
khng c nc mt v nc ngm t lu vc khc chy n, tc l t (3.2) ta c Y1 = 0 v W1 = 0; nc
chy ra ca qua mt ct l Y2 v W2, t Y=Y2+W2 , Z = Z2 - Z1 l hiu lng bc hi vngng t, ta c:

X = Y + Z U

(3.3)

3.2.2. Phng trnh cn bng nc cho lu vc h

i vi lu vc h s c lng nc ngm t lu vc khc chy vo v ngc li, khi phng
trnh cn bng nc s c dng:

X = Y + Z W U

(3.4)

trong W = W2 - W1
3.3. PHNG TRNH CN BNG NC LU VC CHO THI K NHIU NM
Phng trnh cn bng nc dng (3.3) v (3.4) c vit cho thi on bt k t bng mt nm, mt
thng, mt ngy hoc nh hn na. vit phng trnh cn bng nc cho thi k nhiu nm, ngi ta c
th ly bnh qun nhiu nm phng trnh trn vi thi on nm.

T cng thc (3.3) xt trong n nm ta c:

n

Xi
i =1

(Y + Z
i

i =1

U i )
(3.5)

hoc:
n

Xi
i =1

Yi
i =1

Zi
i =1

U
i =1

(3.6)

29

Bi cng thc

t gi tr xp x bng khng do c s xen k gia nhng nm nhiu nc

v t nc phng trnh (3.6) tr thnh dng :

(3.7)

X0 = Y0+Z0
trong

X0 =

1 n
Xi;
n i =1

Y0 =

1 n
Yi ;
n i =1

Z0 =

1 n
Zi
n i =1

l cc gi tr bnh qun nhiu nm ca ma, dng chy v bc hi. Nu n ln th X0, Y0, Z0 gi l chun
ma, dng chy v bc hi nm.
i vi lu vc h, t (3.4) vi cc cch lm tng t nhn c phng trnh cn bng nc dng
(3.8)

X0 = Y0 + Z0 W0 .

(3.8)

Trong trng hp lu vc h gi tr nhiu nm ca W khng tin ti 0 c, bi v s trao i

nc ngm gia cc lu vc thng khng cn bng, phn ln ch xy ra theo mt chiu.

3.4. PHN TCH CC NHN T NH HNG N DNG CHY SNG NGI THNG QUA
PHNG TRNH CN BNG NC
T phng trnh cn bng nc dng (3.3 - 3.8) c th rt ra s ph thuc gia dng chy sng ngi
v cc thnh phn hnh thnh ca n theo dng tng qut:

Y = f(X, Z, W, U).

(3.9)

R rng dng chy sng ngi ph thuc vo nhiu nhn t thng qua cc bin nm v phi ca
phng trnh (3.9). Cc nhn t cng bao gm hai nhm: kh hu v mt m.
Nhn t kh hu phn nh bng c trng ma (X) v bc hi (Z), m lng ma v ch ma cng
nh bc hi v ch bc hi li ph thuc nhiu vo nhn t kh hu khc nh ch nhit, ch m,
ch gi... Ngoi ra ma v bc hi cn ph thuc vo nhn t mt m (nh phn tch trn) nh
a hnh, lp thm thc vt (i vi ma) v thm cc nhn t th nhng, a cht, tnh trng canh tc v
khai thc ca con ngi (i vi c trng bc hi). Mt khc mt m cng nh hng trc tip n ch
nhit, gi, m... Bi vy, c th ni ma v bc hi l s phn nh tng hp s nh hng ca nhn t
kh hu v mt m n dng chy sng ngi.
Thnh phn W ch yu phn nh iu kin a cht ca lu vc n dng chy sng ngi. i vi
cc lu vc kn, thng cc lu vc khng c hin tng karst, hoc l cc lu vc ln c su ct nc
ngm ln W = 0. i vi cc lu vc nh hoc c hin tng kast thuc loi lu vc h s c W 0.
Thnh phn U phn nh mc iu tit ca lu vc n dng chy tc l kh nng tr nc ca
lu vc trong mt on nht nh v s cung cp lng nc c tr li trong thi on tip theo. Kh
nng iu tit ca lu vc ph thuc vo iu kin a cht, th nhng, lp ph thc vt, din tch lu
vc, h ao, m v nhng tc ng ca con ngi. Din tch lu vc cng ln th kh nng iu tit cng
ln v: th nht l do thi gian tp trung nc v v tr khc nhau ra tuyn ca ra c s chnh lch ln; hai
l do nc mt v cc tng nc ngm c thi gian tp trung khng ng u; ba l do din tch lu vc
ln, ct su ca lng sng ln nn tr lng nc ngm ca lu vc cng ln.
Rng v ao h c kh nng tr nc v lm chm s vn chuyn ca nc mt ra tuyn ca ra; cn
iu kin a cht, th nhng s nh hng n tng tc gia nc mt v nc ngm. Cc hot ng

30

kinh t ca con ngi nh lm h nhn to, ph rng, tp qun v phng thc canh tc c th lm gim
hoc lm tng kh nng iu tit dng chy ca lu vc.
V ma thng xy ra trong thi gian ngn, m dng chy th tp trung v tuyn ca ra sau mt thi
gian di, bi vy s thay i lng tr U so vi lng dng chy Y vi thi gian ngn v di cng khc
nhau. i vi thi on ngn th tr lng U chim t trng ln so vi Y v khi lng ma sinh dng
chy cha tp trung ht ra tuyn ca ra, cn khi thi on di th s c bc tranh ngc li. Nu thi on
l nhiu nm th nh hng ca U s khng cn na.
Phn tch nh hng ca cc nhn t mt m v kh hu n dng chy sng ngi c bit c ngha
khi la chn phng php tnh ton thy vn cho nhng lu vc c t v khng c ti liu c trnh by
trong cc chng sau.

3.5. PHNG TRNH CN BNG NC AO H, M LY

3.5.1. Phng trnh cn bng nc cho ao h
Phng trnh cn bng nc h cha c dng chy c th th hin di dng:

X' + Y1 + W1 - Z' - Y2 - W2 = U'.

(3.10)

trong X', Z', U' ln lt l lng ma, bc hi v thay i tr lng nc ca h; Y1, W1 l lng nc
mt v nc ngm chy vo h; Y2, W2 l lng nc mt v nc ngm t h chy ra.
i vi h cha khng c dng chy th Y2, W2 bng 0 v phng trnh cn bng nc c dng:

X' + Y1 + W1 - Z' = U'

(3.11)

Nu vit phng trnh cn bng nc cho thi k nhiu nm i vi h th U' 0 v i vi nhng

h ln th thnh phn dng ngm hon ton khng ng k so vi dng mt nn (3.10) v (3.11) c dng:
X' + Y1 - Y2 - Z' = 0

(3.12)

v
X' + Y1 - Z' = 0.

(3.13)

3.5.2. Phng trnh cn bng nc cho m ly

V tr ca m ly trn lu vc sng ngi nh hng trc tip ti cn cn nc ca n. Ta xt trng
hp m ly h lu v thng lu.
Phng trnh cn bng nc cho m ly h lu c dng:
X" + Y'1 + Y"1 + W1- Y2 Yh - Z" =U"

(3.14)

vi X'' - lng ma trn m ly; Y1 - dng nc mt theo sng, sui vo m ly; Y1 - dng nc mt t
b mt lu vc ln cn vo m ly; W1- dng chy ngm n m ly; Y2 - dng mt ra khi m ly;
Yh - trao i nc theo chiu thng ng; Z" - bc hi t m ly; U" - s thay i tr lng m trong
m ly.
Cn phng trnh cn bng nc i vi m ly thng lu khng c lng nc gia nhp khu gia
nn c th vit:
X" - Y2 - Z" = U."

(3.15)

31

3.6. CN CN NC VIT NAM

3.6.1. Ti nguyn nc ton lnh th
Trn lnh th Vit Nam hng nm tip nhn mt lng ma trung bnh l 1900 mm, tnh ra khi
lng l 634 t m3 nc. Trong i vo hnh thnh dng chy sng ngi l 953 mm hoc 316 t m3 nc,
nh vy h s dng chy l 0,50. Trong ton b dng chy trong sng ngi chim khong 34% hay 107
t m3 nc hay 324mm, cn li 66% l dng chy mt bng khong 629 mm hay 209 t m3 nc. D tr
m trong t l 426 t m3 nc hoc 67% ca ma (1285 mm). Vit Nam thuc vo nhm nhng nc c
ti nguyn nc ti ch giu c, ngoi ra cn thu nhp ngun nc ngoi lai t Trung Quc, Lo,
Campuchia l 132,8 t m3/nm. c bit i vi hai ng bng Bc B v Cu Long, chng ta khng th
tin hnh nng nghip thm canh nu khng c ngun nc ny vo ma kh, song vo ma l ngun nc
ny cng gy ra nhng kh khn khng nh.
Xt v phng din mc m bo nc tnh theo u ngi, Vit Nam ng hng th 10 trong cc
nc chu vi 6000 m3/nm, dng chy sng ngi vo loi trung bnh, song v mc m bo nc ngm
li vo loi thp.
Nh bit, Vit Nam l nc c ngh trng la nc sm ng Nam . Cho ti nay t nng
nghip t ti 5 triu ha trong 80% l la v mu. Din tch c ti nc l 2,9 triu ha, nu ta ly
tiu chun nc l 12800 m3 cho hai v la, th 2,9 triu ha la s s dng 37 t m3 nc ly t sng, ngha
l bng 12% ton b dng chy sng ngi v 35% dng chy ngm. Theo tiu chun ca Lin Hp Quc
(FAO) ch nn s dng 1/3 lng nc ngm. iu xut pht t s duy tr kinh t k thut vo bo v
mi trng. Do vy, chng ta c th thy rng: gii quyt cc vn nc Vit Nam gn lin vi s iu
ha trong phn phi cc ngun nc m mt s vng kinh t vn rt gay cn.

3.6.2. Ti nguyn nc theo 7 vng kinh t nng nghip

Theo Phm Quang Hnh, vng i ni Bc B gm ton b vng i ni t v tuyn 21 tr ra. Din
tch ca vng 98,2 nghn km2 vi dn s 8 triu. Vng ny bao gm cc kiu cnh quan t rng na rng
l, rng kn thng xanh ma m nhit i ni cao ti rng kn thng xanh ma m nhit i. c im
chung ca cc kiu cnh quan ny l s c mt ca ma kh hanh v m. Vng kinh t Bc B c ti
nguyn nc phong ph. Lng dng chy ton phn 948 mm, lng nc ngm 354 mm, lng tr m
1124mm, chng tng ng vi khi lng nc: dng chy sng ngi 93 t m3, dng chy ngm 35 t m3
v nc trong t 120 t m3. Do s tp trung ca l, dng chy mt t 594 mm ng vi 58 t m3 nc.
Mc m bo nc sng ngi v nc ngm tnh theo u ngi l 11,6 nghn m3 v 4,4 nghn m3 trong
nm. Trong a hnh i ni chia ct, pht trin cng nghip c ti y b hn ch. V vy lng nc
trong t c ngha ln v vai tr ca lp ph thc vt vi t cch iu tit nc trong t ng vai tr
quan trng i vi canh tc khng ti nc trong ma kh. i vi vng ny vic t chc xen k trong
khng gian cc cy trng nng nghip v lm nghip nh nhng di rng va phng h v va khai thc l
ht sc ti u. Vng ny thuc khu vc nui dng cc sng ng bng. Trong vng ny xy dng mt
h cha ln nh Thc B trn sng Chy vi dung tch 3,6 t m3 nc. Nhng h cha ny to ra nhng
ngun thy in quan trng i vi s pht trin kinh t ng bng v trung du Bc B.
Vng ng bng Bc B vi din tch 17,4 nghn km2 v dn s 11,8 triu ngi, mt vng ng dn
nht Vit Nam. Din tch trng la chim ti 43% tng din tch, bng 751 nghn ha, song ngun nc a
phng khng ln. Lp dng chy sng ngi a phng 762 mm, dng chy ngm vo sng 354 mm,
dng chy trong t 1179 mm, tng ng khi lng nm 13 t m3, 3 t m3 v 20 t m3, tnh theo u
ngi. tin hnh hai v la trn tch 751,000 ha, ring ma kh cn ti 9,6 t m3 nc ch yu l nc

32

ngm trong sng. Song nc ngm trong sng a phng ch c 3 t m3, cn li 6,6 t m3 nc phi ly t
ngun nc ngm ngoi lai, m chng ta c 40 t m3. Gia lc kh hn, s nc ngoi lai khng ch cn
cho ti m cn cn cho sinh hot, cng nghip, cc loi thy in v chng xm nhp mn do thy triu.
Ngc li v ma l, mng li sng ng bng phi tiu trn 75 t m3 dng chy mt ngoi lai trc khi
i qua Th H Ni, do trong trng hp nguy him phi tho nc qua p y lm trn ngp phn
pha ng ca ng bng.
Vng kinh t th ba nm gia 210 v 150 v bc vi din tch 52.000 km2 v dn s 7,4 triu ngi.
Din tch t nng nhip khng cao. Song vng ny ng th 2 v giu nc. Lp dng chy sng bng
1338 mm, dng ngm 424 mm, lng tr m 1206 mm ng vi khi lng 69 t m3, 22 t m3 v 63 t m3.
Mc bo m c tnh theo u ngi, dng chy sng l 9,3 nghn m3 v 3 nghn m3 dng chy ngm.
ng v mt sinh thi cy trng, vng ny c ma kh ngn v cc cu trc cc thnh phn cn cn nc
theo kiu cnh quan rng kn thng xanh ma m nhit i. Nhng mc tp trung ca dng chy mt
cao vi 914 mm, 47 t m3 - 63% dng chy ton phn ni ln s e do ca nn lt. C iu kin thun li
l l y tuy mnh nhng ch trong thi gian ngn, do ngp t.
Vng kinh t th t l vng thun li v ti nguyn nc vi mc m bo nc theo u ngi
11,8 nghn m3 dng chy sng v 3,3 nghn m3 dng chy ngm. V khi lng nc cc loi gm 68 t m3
dng chy sng, 19 t m3 dng chy ngm v 40 t m3 nc trong t ng vi cc lp dng chy 1524 mm,
424 mm v 900 mm. Vng ny bao gm nhiu ng bng nh ngn bi cc dy ni m ngang. Hu ht t
ai canh tc trn cc thm ph sa c hin i. Do a hnh tiu nc tt v t ai c thnh phn c gii nh
nn h nng l hn, h ma l lt. Vng ny rt cn cc h cha nh iu tit v cng rt thun li cho
s pht trin cc loi ny. y l vng u tin nc ta nhn c nc chuyn t cc h thng sng
ng Nai v ng bng duyn hi thng qua h thng thy in a Nhim. Trn mt khu vc ng bng
khng rng, s phi hp ca ni hng v v ng la xanh m m, nhng h khng su, nc trong ha
vi mu xanh ca bin lm cho vng ny c v p kh t.
Vng kinh t th nm nm trn cao nguyn sn Ty Trng Sn. Cu trc ca cc thnh phn cn
cn nc ging vi vng kinh t th nht. Lp dng chy sng ngi 902 mm, nc ngm 345 mm v nc
trong t 1502 mm. Do mt dn thp nn nc tnh theo u ngi rt cao, 35,2 nghn m3 dng chy
sng ngi v 13,4 nghn m3 dng chy ngm. y l vng u ngun ca cc sng vo sng M Kng.
Bt ngun t nhng ni cao ri v cao nguyn, ch dng chy sng phc tp, nhiu khi tri pha vi
dng chy a phng khi v n h lu. iu s lm cho vic iu tit rt phc tp, c bit i vi cc
d n ti. Thy li nh y rt thch hp v hiu qu kinh t cao, th d nh: nc a t p thy in
a Nhim v ng bng Phan Rang vn cha c s dng mt cch hp l, mt phn v t y km ph
nhiu, lao ng cn qu t. Vng kinh t ny l vng c nht ca nc ta c a hnh cao nguyn bng
phng, trn ph lp bazan c tui khc nhau. Song do s c mt ca ma kh r rt v phn ho rt
phc tp (tu thuc vo hng sn vn v cao), nn tim nng ca t ai ch tr thnh hin thc khi
ma kh c iu tit bi kh nng thm nc v gi nc ca a hnh v t. Mt iu ng lu y
l nhng ni c t bazan tr thng l ni c mng li sng pht trin yu, a hnh km chia ct v do
vn iu tit bng h cha ln km hu hiu. Theo d n ca sng M Kng v ca min, vng ny
c th xy dng 34 cng trnh thy li, thy in ti u v mt kinh t k thut. Theo nhng s liu tnh ra:
Ty Nguyn hng nm c 50 t m3 nc sng ngi trong dng chy mt 31 t m3 v 19 t m3 dng chy
ngm. S 34 cng trnh h cha ln c th iu tit c 23 t m3 nc, cn li 8 t m3 nc c th iu
tit bng cc h cha nh. Cc cng trnh ln c th ti 307400 ha v cho 3679 megawat in. Nh vy
din tch c ti ch bng 1/20 din tch ca vng trong khi vng c ti thun li cha phi l vng
t mu m, cc vng t bazan li thiu ngun nc. Hng pht trin cc vng chnh l xy dng cc h
33

cha nh kt hp vi thy in nh dng nc, xy dng quy trnh trng trt theo hng nng lm kt hp
vi cc bin php t chc cy trng nhm gi m chng bc hi v cc hin tng kh hn cc oan.
Vng kinh t th su l vng tng i ngho nc, hng nm thu nhn 12 t m3 dng chy sng ngi
(479 mm) 6 t m3 dng chy ngm (242 mm) v 43 t m3 nc trong t (1845 mm). S u th ca a
hnh thm c, nhiu ni ph lp bazan dy vi chia ct yu to iu kin thun li cho pht trin cy cao
su, cf, cy n qu. ti c 646 nghn ha t nng nghip hin c cn 9 t m3 nc vi lng ti
14.000 m3/ha. Lng nc yu cu cao nh vy cho thy khng th pht trin cc cy cng nghip nu
khng t vn iu tit v bo v ngun nc. Hin nay trong vng ang xy dng cng trnh Du
Ting trn sng B v Tr An trn sng ng Nai. Hng pht trin ca vng ny ging nh vng 5.
Vng kinh t th by l ng bng sng M Kng. l vng c tim nng nng nghip ln, chim
ti 50% t nng nghip c nc. Hin nay trn 2,5 triu ha cn trng mt v trong ma ma. Ngun nc
sng ngi a phng ch c 9 t m3 trong c 2 t m3 nc ngm. Trong khi lng nc ngoi lai i
vo 99,4 t m3 nc sng ngi v 33,4 t m3 nc ngm. m bo cung cp nc cho 2,5 triu ha trong
ma kh cn ti 35 t m3 nc, nhng nc sng M Kng ch c th ly c 10 t m3, (ch tho mn
c 1/3 nhu cu), bi v nu ly nhiu hn s xy ra tai ha xm nhp mn ca thy triu v cht lng
nc do thi s c nguy c b e da
Trn y chng ta nh gi ti nguyn nc ca nhiu vng kinh t, v cng thy nhng vn
v nc t ra cho mi vng. Song chng ta khng nhn thc ht nhng kh khn v nc nu khng xt
ti c im bin ng v ti nguyn nc ca vng nhit i gi ma, chi tit v phn ny s cp
chng 6.

34

Chng 4
CHUN DNG CHY NM
4.1. NH NGHA V KHI NIM
Chun cc c trng ch thy vn l gi tr trung bnh nhiu nm ca n vi thi on tnh ton
nhiu sao cho khi tng chui tnh ton th gi tr trung bnh ca chng khng thay i.
tin chn la ngi ta thng ly mt s chn cc chu k thay i ca c trng ang xt. Thc t
ly chun cc c trng ch thy vn, di chui cn khong 40 - 60 nm.
Chun dng chy nm l gi tr trung bnh nhiu nm, bao gm mt vi chu k thay i trn vn ca
dao ng lng nc sng vi cc iu kin a l cnh quan khng i v cng vi mt mc khai thc
hot ng kinh t trn b mt lu vc.
Chun dng chy nm l mt c trng n nh, l c s xc nh khi qut v ti nguyn nc ca
mt lu vc hay mt vng lnh th. N nh l mt im ta hay l chun mc xc nh cc c trng
thy vn khc.
Tnh n nh ca chun dng chy nm c xc nh bi hai iu kin:
1) Nh l i lng trung bnh nhiu nm hu nh khng thay i nu ta thm vo chui nhiu nm
mt vi nm quan trc.
2) N l hm ch yu ca cc nhn t kh hu (lng ma v bc hi) k c gi tr trung bnh ca
chng, v chnh cc nhn t ny cng l cc c trng kh hu bn vng ca lu vc hay ca vng.
Chun dng chy nm c th th hin di dng lu lng bnh qun Q (m3/s), tng lng nc bnh
qun nm W (m3), mun dng chy trung bnh nm M (l/s.km2), lp nc trung bnh nm Y (mm) cho
ton b din tch lu vc.
Cc c trng chun dng chy nm biu th di dng M hoc Y mang tnh a i, tc l n bin
i t t theo lnh th v c th ln bn .
Ph thuc vo thng tin ca ch sng ngi m chun dng chy nm c th tnh:
+ Theo s liu o c trc tip v dng chy sng ngi cho thi gian di, m bo chnh xc khi
xc nh chun dng chy nm.
+ Bng cch a chui dng chy trung bnh quan trc trong thi on ngn v chui ko di ca sng
tng t.
+ Khi hon ton khng c s liu th chun dng chy nm xc nh bng vic khi qut kt qu t
chun dng chy nm cc vng khc hoc trn c s phng trnh cn bng nc.
Tuy nhin vic c mt chui s liu di l v cng quan trng nh gi v tnh ton chun dng
chy nm. chnh l c s nh gi ch nc tng lai khi thit k h cha, iu, cu cng v
cc cng trnh thy khc. c trng dng chy c xc nh bc u vi trng thi t nhin ca sng
ngi sau dn c hiu chnh tu theo mc khai thc ti nguyn nc trn lu vc.

4.2. XC NH CHUN DNG CHY NM KHI C Y TI LIU QUAN TRC

Chun dng chy nm cng nh mt gi tr trung bnh ca chui thng k, xc nh theo cng thc:

35

Q + Q2 + L + Q N 1 + Q N
QN = 1
=
N

(4.1)

vi QN - chun dng chy nm m3/s; Q1,Q2,....,QN-1, QN - cc gi tr dng chy nm cho thi k nhiu nm
(N nm). Khi tng tip tc chui th i lng trung bnh s hc Q N khng thay i hoc t thay i.
Do di cc chui dng chy nm thc t khng p ng c yu cu (khng vt qu 60-80 nm,
m thng l 20-40 nm) nn chun dng chy nm tnh theo(4.1) thng sai khc gi tr Q N vi N
mt i lng Qn no , tc l:

QN = Q0n Qn

(4.2)

vi Q0n - dng chy nm theo dy quan trc hu hn n nm; Qn - sai s qun phng trung bnh n nm.
Theo l thuyt sai s, i lng Qn phn nh sai khc ca gi tr trung bnh n nm vi chun dng
chy nm Q N cho N nm vi N , s bng:

Qn =

(4.3)

vi Q - lch qun phng trung bnh gi tr n v ca dng chy nm Qi vi tr trung bnh n nm hay
l trung bnh ca bnh phng lch cc thnh vin ca chui gi tr dng chy nm Qi vi gi tr trung
bnh Q0n.
Xc nh Q theo cng thc:

Q =

(Q

Q0n ) 2

n 1

(4.4)

so snh chnh xc ca vic xc nh chun dng chy nm sng ngi c lng nc khc nhau
thng s dng sai s tng i n xc nh theo cng thc sau:
Qn
Q
C
(4.5)
n =
.100 =
.100 = v 100%
Q0 n
Q0 n n 1
n
vi Cv = Q/Q0n - h s bin i chui gi tr dng chy nm cho n nm.
H s bin i dng chy c trng cho s dao ng cc gi tr dng chy nm quanh i lng trung
bnh ca chng v c xc nh trc tip theo chui quan trc.
T cng thc (4.5) d dng xc nh s nm quan trc n cn thit nhn c chun dng chy nm
vi chnh xc cho trc v vi Cv khc nhau:
2

n=

C v 10 4

(4.6)

Ch trong trng hp di chui nm quan trc ln hn 50-60 nm th chun dng chy nm c

tnh vi di ton chui.

4.3. LA CHN THI K TNH TON

Thi k tnh ton hiu qu cn phi xc nh trong mi trng hp khi m chui nm quan trc khng
vt qu 50-60 nm. N bao gm cc chu k y cc nhm nm nhiu nc v cc nm t nc. Ch

36

nn ch vo cc chu k di, cc chu k ngn (2-4 nm) nm trn cc chu k di khng tnh n, b qua
cc chu k khng kn (c ngha l ch c hoc nhm nm t nc hoc nhm nm nhiu nc).
Kho st tnh chu k ca dao ng dng chy nm mt con sng no v xc nh tnh tng ng
dao ng ca mt s sng ca mt khu vc no cn xy dng th ng qu trnh tng hp
t

(K

1)

= f (t)

Cv
3.5
2.5
1.5
0.5

-0.51971

1976

1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

-1.5

Hnh 4.1. ng cong tch lu hiu s sng C - trm Da

Khi xy dng cc ng qu trnh nc vi s liu nguyn thy rt hay gp trng hp xut hin cc
chu k nh trn nn dao ng nhiu nm. trnh nhc im thng phi dng n bin php lm
trn cc ng qu trnh. Mt trong nhng bin php thng hay s dng nht l nhm gi tr dng chy
nm theo mt thi on no , loi th ny trnh c nhng dao ng a phng trn ng qu
trnh.
Phng php lm trn hay s dng nht trong tnh ton thy vn l ng cong tch lu hiu s (hay
cn gi l ng cong tng lch khi gi tr trung bnh) (H.4.1). ng cong ny khng ch tin li cho
vic xc nh chu k dao ng ca nc sng m cn rt tin li khi so snh chu k thay i nc gia cc
con sng tng t.
Xy dng ng cong tch lu hiu s c tin hnh theo cc bc nh sau:
H s m un c tnh Ki=Qi/ QN hoc Ki=Mi/ M

(K

1. Cng dn lch h s m un ca chui vi gi tr trung bnh nhiu nm bng 1

1)

vi Ki - h s m un.
t

2. Lp quan h

(K

1) = f(t).

3. Do h s m un ph thuc vo mc bin ng (hay l h s bin i) ca dng chy nm nn

khi so snh dao ng dng chy nhiu nm ca nhiu sng khc nhau ngi ta khuyn nn s dng quan h
trit nh hng ca Cv :
t

(K

Cv

1)
= f (t) .

(4.7)

37

C th dng nhiu ng qu trnh ln mt th v th ny gi l th hn hp.

H ng cong dng (4.7) cng nh mi ng cong tch phn khc c nhng tnh cht nh sau:
lch ca gi tr trung bnh i lng (h s m un) cho mt on thi gian m bt k no vi gi
tr trung bnh ca n cho thi on nhiu nm c c trng bi tang gc nghing ca ng thng ni
hai im u v cui ca on vi trc honh v c xc nh theo cng thc:

K tb 1 =

l d lc
m

(4.8)

vi ld, lc - tung u v cui ng cong trn on m; m - s nm trong on.

Thi on m gc nghing ln pha trn v (Ktb - 1) dng ng vi cc nm nhiu nc, cn thi on
m (Ktb - 1) m, ng vi cc nm t nc.
Nu trong mt vng no thiu di nm quan trc xc nh chun dng chy nm vi chnh
xc yu cu th tin hnh s dng theo chui ang c v nh chp nhn sai s, gi tr ny (cha c gi
l chun) gi l gi tr trung bnh thi on.
Khi gp chui quan trc ngn nn lu rng nu chui ch c mt hoc vi chu k th vic thm
mt s nm quan trc nhiu nc (hoc t nc) vo chui nhiu nm c th (mc d chui c ko di)
tng sai s xc nh chun dng chy nm mt cch ng k.
C th so snh cc ng cong tch lu hiu s ca cc con sng tng t nhau lm trn mt vi
ch phn chia chu k khng r rng trn mt ng cong no , gy bi cc nguyn nhn cc b.

4.4. TNH CHUN DNG CHY NM KHI KHNG S LIU QUAN TRC
Trong thc t tnh ton chun dng chy nm v i lng xc sut m bo khc nhau ca n thng
gp cc chui nm quan trc ngn, di ca n khng m bo thu c kt qu vi chnh xc i hi
(5-10%). Trong nhng trng hp cn a chui dng chy nm quan trc ngn v thi k nhiu nm
theo sng tng t c chui nm quan trc di, m bo chnh xc i hi, v dao ng dng chy
nm tng ng vi dao ng ca chui trm tnh ton.
Nu sng tng t c di nm quan trc m bo chnh xc ra ca chun dng chy nm ti
trm tnh ton, th chun dng chy nm tnh ton c xc nh trc tip theo chun dng chy nm sng
tng t. Trong nhng trng hp khc i vi sng tng t, dng ng cong lu tch v theo xc
nh thi k tnh ton.
Chn cc lu vc gn vi sng hoc trm tnh ton lm tng t c cng mt iu kin ng nht v
v tr a l v cao, cng cc nhn t nh hng kh hu v mt m(ao h, a hnh, c im t ai v
v.v..), cn tnh n c lch dng chy t nhin gia hai lu vc.
Tiu chun chnh xc v khch quan nht la chn sng tng t l tnh ng b dao ng ca m
un dng chy nm v quan h tng quan cht ch gia hai trm cho thi k ng nm quan trc. Quan h
gia hai trm c th lp bng phng php gii tch hoc gii.
Quan h gia hai trm tnh ton v sng tng t coi l cht nu nh h s tng quan r 0,8.
Mi im lch vt qu 15% cn phi c lm sng t trn c s phn tch thy vn.
H s tng quan cp r c xc nh theo cng thc:

r=

( y y )( x x )
( y y ) (x x )
0

38

(4.9)

hoc:

r=

(K

1)( K x 1)

nC C vx

(4.9')

vy

vi yi v xi - cc gi tr dng chy nm tng ng cc chui ang xt; y0 v x0 - gi tr trung bnh dng chy
nm mi chui; Kx v Ky - h s m un dng chy nm hai chui; Cvx v Cvy - h s bin i dng chy
nm ti cc trm trong thi k ng nm quan trc n.
Tnh ton h s tng quan v xc nh phng trnh ng thng hi qui quan h ca hai bin dn
theo mt bng chuyn dng.
Theo l thuyt sai s, sai s tng cng (%) i vi chui ko di bng:

= 12 + 22

(4.10)

vi 1 - sai s i lng trung bnh t chui nm quan trc di ti trm gc c di n nm, xc nh theo
cng thc (4.5); 2 - sai s tng quan (quan h) dng chy cho thi k ng nm quan trc, bng:

2 =

Cv 2 1 r 2
n

(4.11)

vi Cv2 - h s bin i dng chy nm ti trm dn cho thi k ng quan trc; r - h s tng quan dng
chy nm hai trm; n - s nm ng quan trc.
Khi phn tch cc quan h nhn c ta rt ra cc dng quan h ch yu sau:
1. Quan h ng thng tuyn tnh i qua gc to :

M = aM a

(4.12)

vi M v M a tng ng l chun dng chy nm sng tnh ton v sng tng t, a - tang gc nghing
ca ng thng so vi trc sng tng t.
Loi quan h nh vy thng gp trong trng hp khi m dao ng dng chy nm ti c hai trm
nh nhau v h s Cv gn nhau. Chun dng chy nm trm ngn xc nh trc tip trn th quan h theo
chun dng chy nm trm sng tng t, khng cn phi khi phc chui tnh trung bnh v nh vy
ch lm tng khong sai s ln m thi.
C th gii quyt tt vn trn bng phng php gii tch, ng dng phng php h s:

M = Ma

M tb
M tba

(4.13)

vi Mtb - dng chy nm cho thi k nm quan trc ngn theo sng tnh ton; Mtba - dng chy nm cho
thi k nm quan trc ngn theo sng tng t.
Cng thc (4.13) c th vit di dng:

M =

M tb
Ka

(4.14)

vi Ka - h s m un trung bnh.
2. Quan h ng thng nhng khng i qua gc to m ct ti b mt trong hai trc to :

M = aM a b

(4.15)

39

Quan h (4.15) chng t rng vi gi tr dng chy nm nh mt trong hai sng khng c dng chy.
Quan h nh vy chng t dao ng ti hai sng khng ng b v h s bin i ca hai trm khc nhau.
Trng hp ny chun dng chy nm ca chui ngn cng ly trc tip t quan h theo chui c nm
quan trc di.
Trng hp h s bin i hai trm chnh lch nhau ln khi ly chun dng chy nm c th gp sai
s ln, ch khi lng nc sng ca chui nm quan trc ngn bng chui nm quan trc di th mi m
bo chnh xc trong tnh ton.
3. Khi c s nm quan trc ng thi t 10-15 nm hoc hn v gi tr h s tng quan dng chy
nm khng nh hn 0,8 c th dn i lng trung bnh nm quan trc ngn v chui nm quan trc di
bng phng trnh hi qui:

M = M tb + r

M
(M a M tba )
Ma

(4.16)

vi M - chun dng chy nm(l/s.km2); Mtb - dng chy nm trung bnh chui nm quan trc ngn
(l/s.km2); M - lch qun phng trung bnh ca m un dng chy nm; r - h s tng quan gia gi
tr dng chy nm ca cc nm quan trc ng thi; a - ch s k hiu c trng ng vi sng tng t.
4. Trong mt s trng hp cc im a ln th khng tun theo qui lut ng thng m b tr
gn mt ng cong no . Nu c c s gi thit rng cc im b tr khng ngu nhin m phn nh
tnh cht dao ng ca dng chy nm th quan h c dng tnh ton. C th dng quan h
khi phc dng chy ca nhng nm khng quan trc v theo chui mi tnh cc c trng ca dng chy.
5. Trong trng hp ring thng gp vi sng tng t gi tr trung bnh ca c thi k ngn v di
ging nhau khi vic dn v chun khng thc hin c v vi bt k quan h no th tnh ton gi tr
trung bnh u khng thay i.
6. Nu cc h s bin i Cv sai khc ln (vt qu 20-30%) p dng phng php so snh ng
cong m bo dng chy nm, khi xc sut thin ln dng chy nm mt s nm c th l ng u vi
c hai trm. Dng chy trn sng tng t cho tt c cc nm phn b theo th t gim dn xc nh theo
xc sut thin ln ca dng chy ti trm tnh ton.
7. Khi ti vng quan trc hon ton khng c ti liu dng chy no c th dng ko di th c th
ko di chui theo ti liu ma hoc ht m ca khng kh nhng tt nhin l chnh xc thp hn.

4.5. XC NH CHUN DNG CHY NM KHI KHNG C TI LIU QUAN TRC

Nhiu khi ta gp phi trng hp trn vng nghin cu hon ton khng c ti liu quan trc. Khi
chun dng chy nm phi xc nh theo cc phng php gin tip.
C s s dng cc phng php gin tip l vic nghin cu v phn tch k lng cc nhn t
hnh thnh dng chy khi qut ho theo lnh th v dng cc phng php ngoi suy, ni suy trn qui lut
a i ca cc c trng ca hin tng thy vn.
Cc phng php gin tip thng s dng l: 1) Phng php bn ; 2) phng php ni suy tuyn
tnh; 3) phng php tng t thy vn v 4) phng php h s tng hp cc nhn t nh hng ti dng
chy nm.

4.5.1. Xc nh theo bn ng tr
y l phng php ph bin nht m bo nhanh chng gii quyt bi ton t ra. Bn c xy
dng theo mt tiu chun m bo chnh xc cao vi chun dng chy nm ca tng trm quan trc
40

phi t vo trung tm hnh hc ca lu vc m trm khng ch. V vy chun dng chy nm xc nh

theo bn phi tng ng vi trung tm hnh hc ca lu vc cha c nghin cu.
Trong trng hp n gin nht, khi lu vc cha nghin cu c mt vi ng ng tr i qua hay
lu vc nm gia hai ng ng tr th chun dng chy nm xc nh bng cch ni suy gi tr dng
chy nm gia hai ng ng tr .
Nu lu vc c nhiu ng ng tr i qua (H.4.2) th chun dng chy nm ca lu vc cha nghin
cu M0 c xc nh theo cng thc:

M 1 f1 + M 2 f 2 + ... + M n f n
F

M0 =

(4.17)

vi M1, M2,..., Mn l gi tr chun dng chy nm trung bnh gia hai ng ng tr; f1, f2,..., fn l din tch
gia hai ng ng tr, F - din tch lu vc tnh ton.
10
9
I
8

II
III

10
9
IV

V
5
6
5

Hnh 4.2. S xc nh chun

dng chy nm theo bn

4.5.2. Phng php ni suy

Trn bn in cc gi tr m un hay lp dng chy trung bnh ti trung tm hnh hc ca lu
vc mt vi trm gc sng tng t gn trm tnh ton. Chun dng chy nm khu vc ng bng v
vng a hnh t thay i c xc nh trc tip bng phng php ni suy trc tip. Nu a hnh i ni
th ni suy cn tnh t l bin ng chun dng chy nm theo cao.
Sai s chun dng chy nm xc nh theo phng php ni suy ph thuc vo chnh xc tnh ton
trm gc.

4.5.3. Xc nh chun dng chy nm theo phng trnh cn bng nc

Ti nhng vng t nghin cu m khng th xy dng c bn , khng th dng c hai phng
php k trn, c th s dng phng trnh cn bng nc xc nh chun dng chy nm theo cng thc:
Y = X Z vi Y = X

vi Y , X ,

(4.18)

Z l gi tr trung bnh nhiu nm ca dng chy, ma v bc hi, - h s dng chy trung

bnh nhiu nm l t s Y / X .

41

Chun ma nm X xc nh theo ti liu o ma cc trm phn b trn lu vc hoc gn , c th

ly t cc ng ng tr trn bn .
i lng Z c th xc nh theo cc phng php gin tip, cc phng php tnh ton Z th
hin r trong gio trnh Thy vn i cng 1
Gi tr h s dng chy trung bnh nhiu nm c th xc nh xp x theo cc cng thc thc nghim:
M.A. Velicanov - D.L. Xocolovski

= 1

d
;
4,8

(4.18)

B. V. Poliacov

9
;
d +9
3

(4.19)

S. N. Kriski - M. Ph. Menkel

11

d + 11

(4.20)

Trong cc cng thc trn d - chun thiu ht m ca khng kh.

4.6. NH HNG CC IU KIN A L T NHIN TI CHUN DNG CHY NM

Cc phng php tnh ton trc tip chun dng chy nm theo ti liu quan trc c c s t phng
php thng k cho nn n khng phn nh c qu trnh hnh thnh dng chy v cc nhn t nh hng
n dng chy, m ch xc nh i lng ca n nh l phn nh mt tp hp.
Cc phng php tnh ton gin tip xut hin trn c s nghin cu khoa hc v khi qut ho ti liu
trn cc qui lut a i, phi a i cng nh tc ng ca con ngi ti dng chy. Cc c trng dng
chy, gm c chun dng chy nm l kt qu tc ng tng h ca nhiu qu trnh vt l phc tp din ra
trn lu vc. Cc c trng nh tnh v nh lng c xc nh bi hng lot cc yu t c th cho
vng a l hay lu vc, chng tc ng ln qu trnh hnh thnh dng chy trong mi quan h cht ch vi
nhau. Cho nn vic nghin cu cc nhn t a l t nhin ring bit c mt ngha ln v c l thuyt ln
thc tin. Cc nghin cu ny cho php tnh ton chun dng chy nm cc vng t hoc khng c s liu
o c v cho php nh gi tin cy ca cc phng php tnh ton gin tip.
Vn nh gi nh tnh v nh lng nh hng ca tng nhn t n cc thnh phn dng chy
bng phng php cn bng nc l ph bin hn c, bi n c th p dng cho mi lnh th, mi thi k
tnh ton.

4.6.1. nh hng ca cc yu t kh hu
Phng trnh cn bng nc i vi lu vc sng ngi cho mt h kn Y = X - Z th dng chy
nm trung bnh l hm ca cc yu t kh hu: ma v bc hi hay ni cch khc l hm ca cc yu t kh
tng thy vn phn nh cn cn nhit m ca cnh quan a l vng ang nghin cu.

Nguyn Vn Tun, Nguyn Th Nga, Nguyn Th Phng Loan v Nguyn Th anh

Sn, Thu vn i c ng, Tp I, NXB KH &KT, H N i, 1991
1

42

Kt lun ln u tin c Voekov A.I. a ra vo u th k th XVIII rng dng chy sng ngi
l sn phm ca kh hu.
V mc nh hng ca kh hu theo nghin cu ca Oldelkop E.M. th n l thnh phn nh hng
ch yu n s hnh thnh dng chy sng ngi, ngoi yu t kh hu th cc thnh phn tc ng khc ch
chim c 15-20%.
Nhng nghin cu v sau cng chng t rng ch c cc nhn t kh hu mi tc ng trc tip n s
hnh thnh dng chy sng ngi. Cc yu t khc tc ng n dng chy sng ngi u khng nh hng
trc tip m u thng qua cc yu t kh hu l ma v bc hi v.v..
Tuy nhin nhng kt lun ng vi dng chy trung bnh nhiu nm khng th p dng cho nhng c
trng khc ca dng chy. Nu thi k tnh ton cng ngn th nh hng ca cc nhn t khc ln gi tr
trung bnh ca dng chy cng th hin r nt. Th d nh dng chy cc i ti mt thi im chu nh
hng trc tip ca ma v nn m ca t ai trc khi ma; hoc s phn phi nc trong nm chu nh
hng ca s phn b ma trong nm cng vi ngm nc v tch t do ao h, in trng gy nn.
i vi nhng lu vc khng khp kn th nhng kt lun trn cng khng c tng minh do tnh
cht cc lu vc nhn ngun nui dng ch yu l nc trn b mt v ch b sung mt phn nc
ngm, khi th cc yu t nh su tng nc ngm c th ng vai tr quan trng bc nht trong s
hnh thnh dng chy sng ngi, y tnh a i vo vai tr th yu.

4.6.2. nh hng ca din tch lu vc n chun dng chy nm

Theo kch thc lu vc sng ngi c phn chia thnh cc loi: ln, trung bnh v nh. T quan
im hnh thnh ch nc ca cc con sng th s phn loi nh vy tr nn khng xc nh.
K.P. Voskrexenski a ra phn loi sng ngi theo cc du hiu thy vn. Theo quan im xc nh
chun dng chy nm t phn loi ny th lu vc c chia thnh cc loi kn, h v h trung gian c
c trng bi chia ct cc tng nc ngm.
Ch tiu gin tip ca phn ct sng ngi, su v rng tng nc ngm, t l gia nc mt
v nc ngm trong mt iu kin nht nh no l din tch lu vc. Tuy nhin mi ph thuc ca cc
yu t k trn vo din tch lu vc trong cc vng a l khc nhau rt khc nhau v n chu nh hng
ca cc bin i c tnh a i ca cc yu t kh hu, su nc ngm v cc yu t khc. Ngoi ra
thm ch trn mt vng cnh quan a l, dng chy trung bnh nhiu nm khng ch ph thuc vo din
tch lu vc m cn chu nh hng ca cc nhn t phi a i v tc ng ca sn xut nng nghip;
chng xc nh s phn b dng chy t ma ra cc thnh phn nc mt v nc ngm chi phi n
lng nc ngm v kh nng bc hi. Nhng yu t s ln lt c xt n, hin ti phn tch quan
h gia chun dng chy nm vi din tch lu vc.
Ta c th xy dng quan h Y = f(F) cho H. 4.3.
Trn hnh 4.3 l th biu din quan h gia chun dng chy v din tch lu vc. Hnh 4.3 a) l
quan h gia chun dng chy nc mt v din tch lu vc cho thy dng chy mt khng ph thuc vo
din tch lu vc. Hnh 4.3 b) l quan h gia chun dng chy ngm vi din tch lu vc, trn th cho
thy ti khong gi tr din tch t 0 F1 (lu vc ct tng nc ngm th nht) dng chy ngm bng 0,
t F1 F2 dng chy ngm tng t l thun vi din tch lu vc. Ti gi tr F2 (din tch lu vc khng
ch ht tng nc ngm) th d din tch lu vc tng dng chy ngm cng khng tng. Nh vy dng
chy ch ph thuc vo din tch lu vc trong khong F1 F2 trong tng nc ngm th nht v khi t
n tng ngm th hai th hnh nh trn s c lp li.

43

a)

b)

Ym

c)

Ym

0
F

F1

F2

F1

F2 F

Hnh 4.3. S quan h din tch lu vc v chun dng chy nm

a) dng chy mt b) dng chy ngm, c) dng chy tng cng

Theo quan im trn th din tch lu vc nm trong khong 0 < F < F1 v F > F2 l h lu vc kn,
cn F1 < F < F2 l lu vc h, c ngha l c s gia tng ngun nc t ngoi vo h thng.
Tuy nhin kh xc nh chnh xc mt cch nh lng nh hng ca din tch lu vc i vi chun
dng chy nm do c kh khn khi xc nh su tng nc ngm (v n ph thuc rt ln vo s bin
i lng nc qua cc nm).

4.6.3. nh hng ca a hnh n chun dng chy nm

a hnh lu vc c kt hp bi cc dng v b mt tri t, cao lu vc v mc chia ct, dn
tri ca n, un khc v v tr cc sn, dc cc dng chy v in trng v.v... Do vy khi nghin cu
nh hng ca a hnh n tng thnh phn ring ca dng chy, k c chun dng chy nm, cng khng
th tch ri cc yu t a hnh trn c. Cn phi tnh rng a hnh vi cc c trng kh hu c lin
quan mt thit vi nhau trong vic to nn sn phm l dng chy sng ngi.
Tht vy, vi cng mt iu kin, qu trnh thm cc lu vc min ng bng s ln hn so vi
vng i ni. Lu vc cng dc th h s dng chy cng ln v tn tht dng chy mt cng t.
nh hng trc tip ca a hnh n dng chy trung bnh nhiu nm thy rt r vi nhng lu vc
b, ni sng ngi c nui dng bi phn ch yu l ngun nc mt, cn nc ngm chim mt t l
khng ng k.
Trong cc lu vc ln v trung bnh nh hng ca a hnh quan st thy r s b tr cc sn so
vi hng truyn m do gi mang n lu vc. cc sn n gi lng ma tng ln do to ra ngun
nc di do dn n kt qu tng chun dng chy nm. Ngc li ti cc sn khut gi do thiu ngun
m nn t ma v dn n gim lng dng chy nm. Qua v d trn cng chng t khi xt yu t a hnh
nh hng ti dng chy, cn phn tch k cc yu t kh hu c quan h cht ch vi chng trong s hnh
thnh dng chy.
Mt thnh t quan trng ca a hnh l cao lu vc cng nh hng khng nh n s hnh thnh
dng chy v c trng c bn nht ca n l chun dng chy nm. Ta bit rng nhit khng kh gim
dn theo cao v do vy cng ln cao iu kin ngng t cc khi khng kh cha m cng tng, v th
lng ma tng v ko theo s tng dng chy. Mt khc do s tng cao nhit khng kh h thp nn

44

lng bc hi cng gim. Ma tng, bc hi gim u dn n s tng dng chy v chun dng chy nm
tng theo cao a hnh.
Vi s liu quan trc tt c th s dng quan h M = f(H) tnh ton cc c trng dng chy nm
cho cc vng a hnh khc nhau trn lu vc khi cn xc nh chnh xc chun dng chy nm nhm loi
tr cc yu t ngu nhin.

4.6.4. nh hng ca a cht th nhng ti chun dng chy nm

nh hng ca iu kin a cht ti chun dng chy nm th hin cc kha cnh sau: 1) Th nm
v su ca tng nc ngm trong lu vc c qui nh bi cc tng t khng thm nc; 2) V tr
ca karst trn lu vc: karst nhn hay cp nc.
nh hng ca iu kin th nhng ti chun dng chy nm c hiu nh sau. Theo bn th
nhng th gii th t ai phn b cng tun theo qui lut a i. Mt trong cc yu t quan trng nht
thnh to t ai l kh hu. Cc iu kin kh hu nh hng n tnh cht v cng phong ho, sinh
ho, m v ch nc trong t. V th cng vi s tc ng ca cc yu t khc, t ai l sn phm
ca a cnh quan v c mi quan h cht ch khng nhng vi kh hu m c dng chy trung bnh.
Khi nghin cu nh hng ca t ai n chun dng chy nm, tc l bn n cc tnh cht thm v
cha nc ca t c xc nh bi cc tnh cht c l v c ho ca t, cu trc ca n v phng php
x l.
Ph thuc vo cc yu t trn, m ca t c th thay i trong mt phm vi ln. Kch thc ht
cng ln, mt cng nh v thm thu cng cao.V d cng thm trn ct v ct pha gp 5- 10 ln
cng thm st v st. iu ny dn n gim h s dng chy v chun dng chy nm.
ngm nc ca t cng nh hng n ch nc. Do kh nng ca t c th gi c mt
lng nc trong tng hot ng, nc ny c th tham gia vo qu trnh bc hi hay b sung vo nc
ngm. t cng c ngm nc cao th cng lm gim h s dng chy v chun dng chy nm.
Cu trc ca t cng ng vai tr ln trong ch thy vn ca t. t c cu trc gi m tt hn
v m c gi li phn nhiu di dng mao dn khng tham gia vo qu trnh to dng chy dn n
gim chun dng chy nm.
Vy t vi cc tnh cht l ho khc nhau trn lu vc, tu theo mc , c nh hng n chun
dng chy nm thng qua bc hi v thnh to nc ngm.

4.6.5. nh hng ca rng v cc dng thm thc vt n chun dng chy nm

Vn nh hng ca thm thc vt, c bit l rng i vi ch nc sng ngi l mt vn
lun lun c t ra v c mt ngha v cng to ln v mt l thuyt cng nh thc t.
Ngy nay vn trng rng, khai thc rng cng ng quan tm khi vn nh hng ca rng i
vi vic tnh ton mt s thnh phn dng chy, v vic nh gi lng nc sng v la chn sng tng
t v.v.. ang c nhiu phc tp. S kh khn trong vic nh gi nh lng v nh tnh cc nh hng
ny sinh nhiu mu thun trong nghin cu v tr thnh i tng ca nhiu cuc tranh ci. Cc kt lun
a ra vn cn nhiu mu thun. Mt s nh nghin cu ch xem xt mt vi c trng ca dng chy v
tng th dng chy ni chung. Mt s khc xt ring sng ln, sng nh v c cc sn dc c rng trn
cc vng t, lnh th a l khc nhau v cc yu t khc na ri khi qut kt qu i n kt lun.
Nhng tu trung hin nay c mt vn t c s thng nht tng i l cc c trng dng
chy (chun dng chy nm, dng chy cc i, dng chy cc tiu, phn b dng chy trong nm) gia
lu vc ln v lu vc b cn c phn bit.
45

nh hng ca rng v cc dng thc vt khc n ch chung ca dng chy v mt s c trng

ca n c th tm gn li nh sau:
- Thm thc vt gi li mt phn nc ma v lm tng tn tht qua bc hi.
- Thm thc vt hp th nc t t v thot hi qua mt l gy tn tht.
- Thm thc vt, c bit l rng che ph t ai lm gim nng v lm gim s bc hi t t.
- Trong rng chun dng chy nm tng ln.
- Thm thc vt lm tng nhm b mt lu vc, lm gim vn tc dng chy mt v lm tng
thm.
- Thm thc vt c kh nng thay i cu trc t ai v cc tnh cht thy l ca t.
Ta xt n mt s chc nng ca rng trong vai tr i vi chun dng chy nm.
nh hng ca rng n lng ma to nn dng chy sng ngi th hin qua hai hng: Nh rng
nn nhm b mt lu vc tng ngn dng vn chuyn khi kh theo chiu thng ng v ma rng
nhiu hn so vi khong trng trong cng mt iu kin thnh to.
Theo cc nghin cu thc nghim th c rng lng ma tng ln khong 20-25% so vi khong trng
cng trong mt iu kin kh hu, tuy nhin lng nc b thn v l cy gi li cng chim khong 2025% nn dng chy mt ni chung khng tng ln, nhng dng chy ngm tng v gi li trong t ai v
l ngun nc b sung cho lu vc sng ngi.
Thnh phn tn tht nc trn lu vc sng ngi c rng ln hn khong trng do bc hi. Lng tn
tht ny chim khong 8-10%. Do rng c h s ma st ln nn gim vn tc dng chy, trong thi gian
nc c th tng thi gian thm nn cng dn ti vic gim lng nc mt.
Mc che ph

Hnh 4.4. Mi ph thuc chun dng chy nm vo che ph lu vc

Tuy vy nu xt mt lu vc kn th lng nc ma to thnh s chuyn sang hoc nc mt, hoc

nc ngm nn tu trung chun dng chy nm ti nhng khu vc c rng l tng ln. Lng dng chy
ph thuc vo che ph v lng ma (H.4.4).
nghin cu nh hng ca rng n chun dng chy nm c th s dng h s tng i:

46

K=

Yi
Yv

(4.21)

vi K - h s nh hng ca rng ti dng chy, Y i - lp nc trung bnh nhiu nm ca lu vc, Y

lp nc trung bnh nhiu nm ca vng.

4.6.6. nh hng ca h n chun dng chy nm

nh hng ca h biu th tng i r n vic gim gi tr dng chy do tng din tch bc hi t
b mt nc, m bc hi t mt nc ln hn bc hi t b mt lu vc.
xc nh s gim chun dng chy nm do h ti cc vng km nghin cu t bn dng chy
cn xt xem nu trong khu vc tnh ton ao h chim hn 5% din tch lu vc th c th xc nh theo
cng thc c rt ra t phng trnh cn bng nc:

M 1 = M (1 f h ) +

( X E) f h
31,5

(4.22)

vi M1- chun dng chy ca sng c h tnh ton (l/s.km2); M - chun dng chy nm xc nh theo bn
(l/s.km2); X-chun ma nm, mm; E - chun bc hi t mt nc, fh - din tch h so vi din tch lu
vc tnh bng %.
Trn lu vc c h th h ng vai tr iu tit dng chy. Vai tr ny s c trnh by chi tit hn
khi bn n dng chy cc i.

4.6.7. nh hng ca m ly n chun dng chy nm

nh hng ca m ly c phn bit bi s khc nhau ca cc iu kin a l t nhin, c trng
bi cc thnh phn i v n ca phng trnh cn bng nc.
Nhit thp ca b mt m ly so vi cc khu vc t ai xung quanh to thun li cho ngng t
m vng trng, v cy c trn m ly cng phn no lm tng lng m do ma so vi vng trng.
m ly v t ly c m cao v do vy bc hi cng tng. Mt khc vn tc gi trn m ly gim
nn s bc hi cng hn ch. Do vy nh hng ca m ly n chun dng chy nm c th l dng
hoc m tu theo tng iu kn c th. N khng ch ph thuc vo cc iu kin kh hu m c cc iu
kin vi kh hu trong mi tng quan gia cc thnh phn cn cn nc: ma, ngng t, bc hi.
Ni chung vng tha m th khng quan st thy nh hng ca m ly ti chun dng chy nm,
cn ti cc vng thiu m th m ly lm gim cht t chun dng chy nm.

4.6.8. nh hng ca cc hot ng kinh t n chun dng chy nm

Theo mc s dng cc bin php thy li ta c th chia cc hot ng kinh t ca con ngi thnh
3 nhm chnh:
1) Hot ng trn lng sng nhm iu ha hay phn phi li ngun nc bng cch xy dng h
cha, xy p hoc chuyn dng.
2) Thay i tng quan gia cc thnh phn cn cn nc nh ti tiu, kh mn...
3) Hn hp do vic iu tit dng chy v nhiu mc ch khc nhau.
H cha m bo iu tit s phn phi khng ng u ca dng chy phc v kinh t dn sinh.
Vic ti tiu thng lm tng hoc gim dng chy ngm, vic chuyn dng lm tng lng nc
lu vc ny ko theo s gim lng nc ti lu vc khc.

47

Trong vic khai thc s dng nc cng c nhiu mu thun, nh thy in cn s iu ha ngun
nc khai thc u n trong nm, cn ng nghip th cn m bo ch nc t nhin duy tr s
cn bng sinh thi.
Vic khai khn t hoang trn b mt lu vc lm tng thm ca t dn n vic tng dng chy
ngm v gim dng chy mt.
Vy nhng hot ng c th ca con ngi trn b mt lu vc c hai hng:
1) Tng dng chy nm nh trng rng u ngun, chuyn nc sng t ni khc v qua h thng
thy li.
2) Gim dng chy mt v tng dng chy ngm nh vic xy dng h cha, khai khn t hoang,
khai thc rng v ti tiu cho nng nghip, ci to m ly v.v..
Nh vy nh hng ca cc hot ng kinh t ca con ngi tc ng ti dng chy nm rt ln v
khng n gin nn khi khai thc ti nguyn nc trn lu vc cn c tnh ton c th m bo vic
phc hi v ti to n theo hng pht trin bn vng.

4.7. XY DNG BN CHUN DNG CHY NM

Bn chun dng chy nm l mt sn phm c tnh khoa hc v thc tin cao. thnh lp bn
chun dng chy nm cn phi s dng nhiu phng php phn tch v tnh ton thy vn a ra mt
bn tt nht trn c s ti liu.

4.7.1. Phn tch ti liu xy dng bn chun dng chy nm

Bn chun dng chy nm thng c xy dng cho mt vng lnh th rng ln vi s khi qut
cao v ti liu. Trc ht phi phn tch v nh gi ti liu dng chy xem tng khu vc tnh ton thuc
dng y s liu tnh chun hay phi ko di (khi phi tm trm tng t) hoc gi l vng cha c
nghin cu chn phng php xc nh chun dng chy nm tng ng.
Trn bn nn cn ch cc chi tit c th dn ti sai lch tnh ton chun dng chy nm nh
cao lu vc, che ph do rng, mc ao h, m ly v.v.. v dng a hnh a phng c s iu
chnh cn thit. V quan trng nht cn tham kho bn ma nm lm sng t nhng im khng hp
l gia bn chun dng chy nm v bn chun ma nm. Nhng l gii cc im khng tng ng
u phi da trn c s phn tch khoa hc cc ti liu v iu kin a l t nhin ca lnh th.
Nu gp nhng trng hp trm o thy vn tha m trm kh tng dy th nht thit khi v cc
ng ng tr cn tham kho bn ma.
Trong mt s trng hp cn ch phn tch s bin i a hnh trong lnh th dn cc ng
ng tr hp l sao cho ng ng tr khng ct ngang ng phn lu.
Khi khng iu kin xc nh chun th bn c v theo s liu dng chy trung bnh nhiu
nm, cn ghi r thi on tnh ton ngi s dng bit v khai thc.

4.7.2. Cc bc xy dng bn chun dng chy nm

Xy dng bn chun dng chy nm nht thit phi thc hin ng cc qui

trnh sau:

1. Phn tch nh gi ti liu dng chy la chn thi k tnh ton chun dng chy nm.
2. Kim tra tnh ng nht ca cc chui s liu. xy dng bn chun dng chy nm ngi ta
hay s dng nht l cc ch tiu Wincooson hoc ch tiu Student.

48

3. Kim tra tnh ph hp v tnh i biu ca chui xc nh chu k tnh ton chun dng chy nm
c hi t iu kin tnh chun hay khng?
4. Tnh chun dng chy nm theo ti liu hin c bng cc phng php tnh nu trn i vi
tng trng hp c th. Dng cc ti liu v cao, a hnh, thm thc vt v ao h... hiu chnh.
Chun dng chy nm qui v gi tr M hoc Y loi tr nh hng ca din tch lu vc.
5. Theo kt qu tnh chun dng chy nm cho tng trm o a chng vo trung tm hnh hc ca
lu vc trm khng ch ln bn ng tr.
6. ng ng tr chun dng chy nm trn bn c v theo phng php ni (ngoi) suy da
trn lp lun v tnh a i ca dng chy. Khi v cc ng ng tr dng chy cn tham kho bn
chun ma nm v cao ca a hnh.
7. Vit gii thiu cc phng php tnh ton khi xy dng bn lm ph lc thuyt minh i km.
Trang tr trn bn chun dng chy nm v t l bn phi tun theo ng qui phm ca Cc o c
v Bn Nh nc.

4.8. DNG CHY SNG NGI VIT NAM V CC YU T A L TC NG TI N

Vic tr thy v khai thc cc dng sng, ngoi nhng hiu bit v mng li a l thy vn v nhng
c trng hnh thi ca n, cn phi c nhng hiu bit y v nhng yu t a l nh hng n dng
chy, qu trnh hnh thnh v din bin dng chy trn lu vc sng. Trn c s , chng ta mi hiu bit
mt cch chi tit bn cht vt l ca nhng c trng thy vn, mi gii thch c s hnh thnh v din
bin ca dng chy mt cch nh lng, chnh xc thng qua vic la chn phng php, xy dng cc
cng thc tnh ton c trng ca dng chy cng nh cn bng ca sng ngi.
Theo M. I. Lvvits, ngy nay ngi ta bt buc phi k n vai tr ca hon cnh a l trong nhng
hin tng v thy vn din bin. Hon cnh chnh l mi trng a l, l nhng yu t trc tip hoc
gin tip hnh thnh dng chy sng ngi.
Ni mt cch khc, c trng hnh thi thy vn sng ngi c hnh thnh di s nh hng tng
hp ca cc yu t a l. Nhng yu t c quan h cht ch v nh hng ln nhau. Nhng yu t a
l quan trng nht l kh hu, th nhng v nham thch. Ngoi ra, a hnh, cu to a cht, m ly,
ao h cng nh hng r rt. Cui cng l s hot ng kinh t ca con ngi nh hng rt ln v
ngy cng quan trng n s hnh thnh v din bin dng chy ca sng ngi.
Chng ta bit rng, mi quan h tng h gia dng chy v mi trng a l rt phc tp, kh c
th phn bit mt cch tht chnh xc vai tr nh hng ca mi yu t a l vi dng chy. Chnh v vy
khi nghin cu vn ny trn lnh th nc ta, v cn nhiu hn ch v ti liu (nht l ti liu thc
nghim v dng chy mi cho kt qu nghin cu bc u), cn c tip tc kim nghim trong thc t.

4.8.1. Cc yu t kh hu
Trong cc nhn t a l t nhin th kh hu l nhn t c bn, ng vai quan trng nht trong qu
trnh hnh thnh v din bin dng chy sng ngi.
Trong iu kin kh hu nhit i m ca nc ta, ma l hnh thc nc ri duy nht. Do s lng
v tnh cht ca nc ma cng s bc hi t lu vc quyt nh tim nng ca dng chy sng ngi.
Ma v bc hi l cc yu t kh hu tham gia trc tip vo cn cn nc ca mi lu vc sng c th.
1. Ma. c im kh hu nhit i m, gi ma ca nc ta th hin rt r rt lng ma trung bnh
trong nhiu nm v tng quan gia lng ma v lng bc hi nm. Tht vy, xt trn ton lnh th

49

nc ta, th lng ma trung bnh nhiu nm khong 1960mm. So vi lng ma trung bnh cng v
(100-200 Bc) th nc ta c lng ma kh di do, gp 2,4 ln. Ch nhng ni khut gi m th lng
ma trung bnh nm mi gim xung di 1000 mm.
Quy lut phn b ca lng ma trung bnh nhiu nm khng u trong khng gian, ph thuc vo
cao a hnh v hng ca sn n gi m. Cc trung tm ma ln c hnh thnh trn lnh th nh:
Mng Ci 2800 mm - 3000 mm, Bc Quang 4765 mm, Hong Lin Sn 2600 mm - 3000 mm, Mng T
2600 - 2800 mm, Honh Sn 3500 mm - 4000 mm, Tha Lu 2600 - 3662 mm, Tr Mi - Ba T 2600 3400mm, Sng Hinh 2500 mm, Bo Lc 2876 mm. Hai trung tm ma ln nht nc ta l Bc Quang v
Ba Na t 5013 mm. Vng c lng ma ln ko di t v tuyn 15 0B n 160B, gi l v tuyn nc.
Ngc li, nhng trung tm ma nh c hnh thnh nhng vng thp, khut, hoc nm song song
vi hng gi m, l cc vng: An Chu 1000 mm - 1200 mm, Sn La 1000 mm - 1300 mm, Mng
Xn 800 mm - 1000 mmm, c bit Phan Rang, Phan R ch t 650 mm. Vng c lng ma nh ko
di Duyn Hi cc Nam Trung B t v tuyn 100B n v tuyn 120B l vng t ma kh in hnh
nc ta.
Nhn chung, lng dng chy ca sng ngi nc ta cng kh phong ph. su dng chy nhiu
nm t 998 mm. So vi su dng chy v 10 0 - 120B cng v vi nc ta (207 mm) th lng
ma dng chy nc ta gp 5 ln.
Quy lut phn b ca dng chy cng tng t nh phn b ca ma. Trn ton lnh th, cc trung
tm dng chy ln, nh thng trng vi cc trung tm ma ln, ma nh.
Nhng vng ma ln th dng chy ln nh vng Vi Li thuc tm ma ln Mng Ci, su
dng chy nm trung bnh t ti 2334 mm; vng Hong Lin Sn, su dng chy nm cng t ti
2180mm ti T Thng, vng Bc Quang trn 3000 mm, Mng T trn 2000 mm, vng Honh Sn ti
sng Ro Ci, Ro Tro, su dng chy ti 1800 mm - 2400 mm. Vng ma ln Bc o Hi Vn, su
dng chy cng xp x 2000 mm, ti sng Hu Trch l 1973mm; vng ma ln Tr Mi - Ba T, Ba Na,
su dng chy u vt trn 2000 mm; sng Bng 2070mm, sng Tranh 2303 mm v sng V 2372 mm.
Qu vo pha Nam c sng Hinh cng t trn 1500 mm. trung tm ma ca sng ng Nai dng chy
cng t ti 1100 mm - 1428 mm.
S lp li phn b ca ma cng c th hin kh r i vi cc trung tm dng chy nh nh ti
Chi Lng 470 mm, Thc Vai 391 mm, Ca Ro 583 mm, sng Lu 316 mm.
Nh vy, lng dng chy v s phn b ca n trn lnh th nc ta ph thuc ch yu vo s phn
b ca lng ma. c im c tnh quy lut c phn nh rt r trn thc t v trn bn ng
ng mc v dng chy trung bnh nhiu nm.
Yu t ma khng nhng nh hng n dng chy mt phn b trong khng gian nh cp trn
y, m cn nh hng n tnh bin ng ca dng chy theo thi gian.
Tht vy, ch ma nh hng ln n ch dng chy sng ngi nc ta. Kh hu nc ta c
s phn ho theo ma r rt, trn ton lnh th, u cng c mt ma kh vi lng ma thp hn lng
bc hi v mt ma ma. Do dng chy sng ngi cng tng ln theo ma, ma l ng vi ma ma v
ma cn ng vi ma kh (t ma).
Ch nc sng iu ha hay c lit c ngha quan trng i vi sn xut v i sng. Trong iu
kin kh hu nhit i gi ma nh nc ta vn ch dng chy trong nm li l vn quan trng
hn nhiu so vi tng lng.
Nhn chung, trn ton lnh th ma ma v ch dng chy cng phn ho theo khng gian kh r:

50

Ma ma nhiu c xu th chm dn t Bc xung Nam tnh n Phan R:

Bc B ma ma t thng IV, V n thng IX, X.
Bc Trung B, ma ma t thng VIII n thng XII.
Nam Trung B t Phan R ma ma t thng IX n thng XII.
Phan R v Nam B ma ma t thng IV, V n thng X - XI.
Trung v Nam Ty Nguyn ma ma t thng V n thng X.
Tm li, tr vng duyn hi Trung B c ma ma bt u mun nht do a hnh ca dy Trng
Sn phi hp vi hon lu ng bc to nn; cn phn ln lnh th c ma ma bt u t thng IV,V v
kt thc vo thng X - XI.
Ma ma tuy di ngn khc nhau, dao ng t 4 n 6 thng, nhng c ti 70 -90 % lng ma c
nm tp trung vo ma ma.
Xt trn ton lnh th, s chi phi ca ch ma i vi ch dng chy l r rng, nhng dng
chy sng ngi cn chu nh hng ca cu trc mt m lu vc. Tu thuc vo kh nng iu tit ca
lu vc nhiu hay t m ch dng chy sng ngi ph thuc vo ch ma vi mc khc nhau.
Nhn chung, ma l thng ngn hn ma ma 1 - 2 thng v xut hin chm hn ma ma khong 1
thng. Nhng trong nhiu trng hp, cc nhn t ca mt m c nh hng tri i vi ch dng
chy. l trng hp cc lu vc sng va v nh, lng sng khng thu nhn c ton b nc ngm.
nhng vng vi nhiu hoc t bazan c tng phong ho su, kh nng thm ln th ch dng chy
th hin s nh hng ca mt m rt r rt. Nh Ty Nguyn, do kh nng thm ca t vo cui ma
kh rt ln, trong khi ma u ma li cch on, cng nh, to ra mt ma l chm hn ma
ma ti 1,5-2 thng. nh hng ca nhn t kh hu gim nhng nh hng ca mt m tng ln, tr
thnh nhn t tri trong s hnh thnh ch dng chy ca sng ngi.
2. Bc hi. Ngoi yu t ma, yu t bc hi t b mt lu vc cng tham gia trc tip vo cn cn
nc ca sng ngi, nh hng r rt n s hnh thnh ca dng chy.
nc ta c nn nhit cao, trn ton lnh th nhit trung bnh nm u vt qu 210C min
Bc, v 25 0C min Nam. Nhit cao lm cho qu trnh bc hi trn lu vc sng t Bc vo Nam
u kh ln. Lng bc hi trung bnh nm ton lnh th l 953mm, so vi lng ma trung bnh nm th
h s bc hi l 0,48, nh hn khong 35% so vi cng v .
Tm li ma v bc hi l hai yu t quan trng nht ca kh hu nh hng n dng chy, n quyt
nh tim nng dng chy sng ngi nc ta. Nhn t kh hu c nh hng quyt nh n s phn b
ca dng chy trong khng gian v phn b theo thi gian.
Qui lut v s nh hng ca kh hu n dng chy nc ta c khng nh kh r thng qua
quan h gia ma v dng chy. So vi cc nhn t khc th quan h gia ma v dng chy cht ch hn
c do trong s hnh thnh dng chy sng ngi nc ta th ma ng vai tr quyt nh c v lng v
ch dng chy trong nm cng nh phn b trong khng gian. S nh hng ca phn b kh hu ti
dng chy c nh liu qua thc t ti liu o c v tnh ton thng chim khong 80-90%. Cc nhn
t nh hng khc thuc mt m ca lu vc nh hng n dng chy khong t 10-20%.
T kt qu nghin cu qui lut nh hng ca kh hu i vi dng chy cho php thit lp quan h
gia lng ma v lng dng chy cho cc khu vc trn ton lnh th. Nhn chung h s tng quan u
rt cao, phn ln u t trn 0,85. Trong tng khu vc u c h s tng quan cao; cn c vo phng
trnh tng quan c xc nh cho php suy t lng ma ra lng dng chy vi sai s cho php. iu

51

ny c bit quan trng v c ngha thc tin i vi vic tnh ton lng dng chy cho nhng lu vc
khng c ti liu hoc ti liu dng chy cha di.

4.8.2. Th nhng v nham thch

Chng ta bit rng, lu vc sng c cu to t th nhng v nham thch. Th nhng v nham
thch l nhn t nh hng quan trng n dng chy. Thc t cho thy mt lu vc c lng ma ln
cha sn sinh mt dng chy mt phong ph, v dng chy cn ph thuc vo kh nng thm nc ca
th nhng v kin trc a cht ca lu vc sng na.
Theo kt qu phn tch v so snh trn mt s cp trm thy vn th nh hng ca th nhng v
nham thch i vi dng chy sng ngi theo hai chiu hng: c th lm tng hoc lm gim lng dng
chy, iu ha hoc tht thng ho ch dng chy. Trn ton b lnh th nc ta c hai loi th
nhng v nham thch c nh hng r v quan trng nht i vi dng chy sng ngi v ch ca n
l vi v t phong ho t bazan.
vi chim mt din tch kh ln v phn b rng khp min Bc nc ta. N c c im l d
ha tan, nht l trong nc ma c nhiu CO2 t do, thng c cc hang ng sng ngm....lm gim dng
chy mt; mt sng ngi nhng vng vi thng nh hn 0,5km/km2, lng dng chy sng ngi
thng b gim do mt nc v ng phn lu ca lu vc sng y khng khp kn. Qui lut gim
dng chy trong cc lu vc sng c nhiu vi th hin kh r. Kt qu so snh mt s cp trm
thy vn c t l vi khc nhau r rt, cc yu t din tch, cao v ma gn tng t cho thy t l
vi trong lu vc tng ln khong 10% th lng dng chy mt b gim bnh qun l 8%. c im ny
thng xut hin trong cc vng karst ang cn giai on tr, thnh tng khi vng chc, din hng nc
ma rng, hnh thi karst ch yu l cc phu hng nc, ca bin, ca hin. Dng chy khi n khi hin c
th gp Tr Lnh, ng Vn, cao nguyn Sn La v khi ni vi K Bng... Ngc li, cc vng karst
pht trin n giai on cui, hnh thnh cc ni st, ca bin b lp v phong ho lp y th dng
chy mt nhiu hn r rt nh Qung Yn, Trng Khnh...
R rng vi to ra nc ta mt kiu ch dng chy sng ngi c bit, thy vn karst vi
nhng c im nh sau:
Dng chy mt gim i r rt, mt sng sui tha tht, di 0,5km/km2. Lng nc ngm phong
ph, thng chim t 30-40% lng dng chy c nm, c nh hng r rt n phn b dng chy trong
nm, c tc dng iu ha dng chy do kh nng iu tit rt ln ca khu vc. Cc lu vc sng vng
vi c h s hnh dng ngn l thng b (0,50-1,0), m un dng chy nh l cng thin b r rt, ni
chung l ln chm v nh l ko di.
bazan v t bazan chim ti 25% din tch ca min Nam. Ring Ty Nguyn v phong ho
trn t bazan chim ti 20000 km2. t bazan rt dy, c ch ti 300m, kh nng thm nc ln, h
s thm nc t 0,25 c nh hng n dng chy v ch ca n. C th l lng tn tht bc hi ln
do kh nng thm nc ca t ln trong iu kin ma kh ko di ti 8 thng Ty Nguyn. Dng chy
mt y b gim st r rt, biu hin mt sng sui c dng chy thng xuyn thp di
0,5km/km2, h s dng chy nm thp 0,40 - 0,45. Lng nc ngm kh ln chim 30 - 35% lng dng
chy c nm. Kh nng thm nc ln ca t bazan lm gim st lng dng chy v c bit c nh
hng r rt n ch dng chy. Biu hin r nht l do nh hng ca t ai Ty Nguyn lm
cho ma l xut hin chm hn ma ma mt thi gian di nht nc ta ti 1,5 n 2 thng. iu ch r
s nh hng ca t trn lu vc trc tip lm thay i lng dng chy v ch ca n mt cch

52

ng k, nh hng ca nhn t kh hu trong trng hp trn y khng r nt nh ni khc, tnh cc

b, a phng cn c ch y trong mi tnh ton d bo v thy vn sng ngi.

4.8.3. a hnh
Sau kh hu, th nhng v nham thch l nhng nhn t nh hng trc tip ti lng dng chy v
s phn b trong khng gian cng ch ca dng chy, nc ta nhn t a hnh cng c nh hng kh
r nt n lng dng chy v ch ca n.
Lnh th nc ta c din tch i ni chim ti 3/4 trong ch yu l i ni thp, nhng nh cao
nht mi t tiu chun ni trung bnh. cao 100 - 500 m chim 50% din tch, ni cao trn 1000 m ch
chim ti 10% din tch. Nh vy, i ni thp l tnh cht ch yu ca a hnh nc ta.
nh hng ca a hnh c tc dng nht nh ti dng chy thng qua vic tng cng tnh a i
ca kh hu. Nhn chung, trn ton lnh th nc ta s gia tng cao tut i ca a hnh thng biu
hin s gia tng ca lng ma, dc lu vc, nhit gim, mt sng sui tng. Trong iu kin
lng dng chy cng c gia tng theo cao kh r.
Kt qu tnh ton cho thy lng ma v lng dng chy gia tng theo cao. S gia tng ln nht
xut hin trong khong cao t 300-600m v gii hn cao m quy lut ma tng theo cao khng
tn ti na thng c c lng t cao 2000m tr ln.
Nh vy, cao bnh qun lu vc sng nc ta u nm trong gii hn tc ng ca quy lut tng
theo cao ca lng ma v dng chy. S gia tng ca lng ma v dng chy c tnh nh sau: i
vi lng ma tng khong t 20-300mm cho 100m tng cao, i vi dng chy th tng t hn ch 540mm cho 100m tng cao. Kt qu so snh mt s cp trm thy vn c chnh lch r rt, th thy
lng ma v lng dng chy u tng theo cao. Tnh cho 100m tng ln ca cao th s tng lng
dng chy gia cc trm khng ng nht, ni tng nhiu n 23%, ni tng t khong 10%. Tnh trung
bnh th lng dng chy tng theo cao khong 16% cho 100m. Trn ton b lnh th, nhng trung tm
ma ln v dng chy ln u nm trn cc vng ni c cao nhng hng v pha gi m thnh hnh.
Nhng vng l: vng ni Bnh Liu, ni Ty Cn Lnh, Hong Lin Sn, ni Pilung, vng ni Ngh
An, H Tnh, vng o C, Hi Vn, Ba Na, Tr Mi, Ba T... u c su dng chy trung bnh nhiu
nm t ti 1500 mm n trn 2000 mm, m un dng chy trung bnh nhiu nm ti 70 n trn
100l/skm2. Tuy vy cng phi k n tnh th tri vi quy lut trn. l s xut hin ca mt vng ma
ln, dng chy ln, nhng cao ln nh Bc Quang, duyn hi Qung Ninh, Tha Lu... iu c
lin quan ti (hiu ng) chn trc ni, khng kh b nhiu ng mnh, ma nhiu, dng chy cng
gia tng r rt so vi nhng vng sn ni xung quanh.
Ngoi quy lut tng theo cao ca lng ma v lng dng chy nm, chng ta cn thy s nh
hng ca a hnh kh r rt i vi lng v s phn b dng chy do c im hng sn ca a
hnh. Theo quy lut ny th sn n gi c lng ma v lng dng chy ln hn pha khut gi. S
chnh lch ny kh r rng, nht l pha nam ng bc v ty nam ni ng Triu; gia hai trm Bnh
Liu v Cm n lng dng chy chnh lch nhau ti 35%. Nh vy, cao v hng sn n gi m
ca a hnh u lm tng lng dng chy nm, trung bnh th lng gia tng khong 22%.
i vi ch dng chy, nhn t a mo cng nh hng r rt. Ni chung nhng vng a hnh
cao, ma nhiu th t s phn phi dng chy trong nm iu ha hn vng thp c lu lng t, nguyn
nhn ch yu l do ma ma ko di. S hnh thnh ca a hnh i vi c ch dng chy th hin r nht
pha ng dy ni Trng Sn. Ti y a hnh phi hp vi hng ca gi ma, hnh thnh kiu ch
dng chy c sc nht nc ta- ma l lch v ma ng, t thng IX-X n thng XI- XII; m hnh

53

phn phi dng chy trong nm c pha nc ln, nc nh r rt, khc bit hn so vi cc vng khc trn
lnh th.

4.8.4. Rng
T thc t nc ta cho thy nh hng ca rng i vi dng chy l thuc vo rt nhiu yu t ,
trong t l che ph v loi rng l nhng yu t quan trng nht.
Theo Winliam v Nikhitsin th rng cy lm bin i th nhng rt mnh nn mt khi tnh hnh che
ph ca rng thay i thng ko theo s thay i v loi rng v ch dng chy ca sng ngi.
nc ta qu trnh bin i thng bin i qua rng nguyn thy n rng mc li, rng tre na
c tranh, bi rm v cui cng l i trc. Chiu hng bin i ngc li tuy c song rt t v rt chm.
S bin i tng ng ca dng chy l kh kit v ma cn, ch sng ngi t iu ha tr nn tht
thng, c lit ho, l lt, kh cn thng xuyn xy ra nhiu hn khi cn rng.
nc ta, rng cn li khng nhiu, t l che ph ca rng hin nay ch cn khong 24% din tch
ton lnh th, tc l suy tn qu mc cho php ti 26%. So vi nm 1945 th nm 1985 nc ta ch cn
7,8 triu ha rng. Nh vy, sau 40 nm mt 65 triu ha rng. Ring t nm 1975 n nay hng nm mt
225000 ha rng.
Nhng vng cn nhiu rng (t l t c rng chim t 35% tr ln) Bc B ch c hai tnh H
Giang, Tuyn Quang, cc tnh thuc Bc Trung B, Ninh Thun, Bnh Thun v Ty Nguyn. Trong c
hai tnh Lm ng v c Lc, t l rng cn nhiu nht t t 45 - 68% din tch. Vng cn t rng nht
l Ty Bc ch c 9%, t c rng hai tnh Bc Ninh, Bc Giang ch cn 12%...
V loi rng th trong tng din tch rng l 7,8 triu ha c cc loi nh sau:
L rng thng xanh chim 5,362 triu ha, rng rng l l 371,6 nghn ha, l kim 135 nghn ha, rng
hn giao g, tre na 395 nghn ha, rng tre na 1 triu ha.
Trong khi din tch khng cn rng l 13 triu 787 nghn ha, trong i trc chim gn 1 triu ha,
cn li l cy bi, g ri rc.
T l rng cn li v loi rng ca nc ta nh trn c nh hng quan trng n dng chy sng
ngi cng nh ch ca n. Theo s liu nghin cu thc nghim dng chy v chng xi mn, kt qu
so snh mt s cp trm thy vn c s khc nhau r rt v t l rng, bc u chng ta c th nu ln
mt s nhn xt sau:
Rng lm tng hay gim lng dng chy nm. Thc t cho thy rng, vng c cao a hnh di
500m th s tng hay gim lng dng chy nm khng r rt. Song, xu th chung l lng dng chy
y thng b gim i. Ngc li, nhng vng a hnh cao hn 500 m th xu th chung lm tng lng
dng chy nm, cng ln cao xu th cng r rt. iu ph hp vi quy lut: tn tht gim v ma tng
theo cao.
Trong iu kin ma nhiu, dng chy phong ph, nc ta nh hng ca rng c ngha hn c l
tc dng iu ha ch dng chy v chng xi mn t. V kh nng iu tit dng chy l, kt qu tnh
ton cho thy rng lm gim lng dng chy khng ln nh mt s tc gi ni. Trong iu kin ma l
cng ln, ko di ngy xut hin bt k thi im no trong ma l hn ch kh nng iu tit dng
chy l ca rng. Thc vy khi t rng bo ha nc th rng t cn tc dng iu tit lm gim dng
chy l, nhng cng phi thy gii hn ca n, c th i vi tng con l trong ma l. Khng nn ngh
rng rng c tc dng iu tit phn ln dng chy l nh ngi ta vn thng nhn mnh.

54

Ring v dng chy mt trn sn th rng c tc dng lm gim i rt nhiu. Ti liu thc nghim
dng chy chng minh iu , tc l lng dng chy st mt ca sn dc ph rng chim mt t l
ng k trong qu trnh hnh thnh dng chy l.
nh hng ca rng i vi dng chy kit qua kt qu nghin cu thc nghim nc ngoi v
nc ta u khng nh l rng lm tng lng dng chy kit mt lng ng k. nhng vng rng cn
nhiu th dng chy kit c th tng t 30 - 100%. Tr s mun dng chy nh nht bnh qun nhiu nm
ca vng cn nhiu rng ln hn r rt vng khng cn rng.
Tc dng nh hng ny ca rng nc ta th hin rt r, iu rt c ngha i vi sn xut v
i sng. C th khai thc quy lut ny mt cch trit v tch cc bin t rng thnh mt h cha
nc ngm. Chuyn nc mt tha thi thnh nc ngm dng trong ma kit thng qua s iu tit ca
rng l mt phng thc cn c khai thc.
Chng ta cn thy rng, kh nng iu tit t nhin ln nht khi t l che ph ca rng trn lu vc
ln hn 50% din tch. Thc t nc ta cho thy nhng lu vc c tr s mun dng chy ma kit t
t 20 n 40l/skm2 u thy xut hin nhng lu vc c t l che ph ca rng t ln hn 50% din
tch, c th k mt s v d nh Ngha , Ngi Thia, Sng Hiu, Ngn Ph, Thu Bn, sng V, Bc v
Nam Ty Nguyn. Ngc li nhng vng i ni trc th mt lun c ngun nc thng xuyn, dng
chy ch tn ti khi c ma, ma cn, lng sng sui cn tr si .
Rng cy, mt "bn tay" khng l gi t. i vi dng chy rn, rng c tc dng lm gim r rt
xi mn mt t. Trong iu kin a l t nhin tng t, lu vc no cn nhiu rng th xm thc gim
i r rt. Thc t ch r nu t khng cn rng cy che ph th lng t mu mt i s tng gp 120
ln so vi t cn rng, lng t b bo mn hng nm 0,14 - 1,03 tn/ha ni rng t nhin cn tng
i tt v tng ln ti 124 tn/ha nu khai thc ht rng thnh i trc.
Trn y ch r vai tr bo v v ci to iu kin thy vn ca rng, trong tnh hnh ca nc ta
rng ang tnh trng b tn ph gh gm th cng phi cao vic bo v v khi phc thm rng.
"Rng l mt b phn ca mi trng sng, l ti sn qu bu ca nc ta, c gi tr ln i vi nn
kinh t quc dn v vn ho cng cng".

4.8.5. S hot ng kinh t ca con ngi

Chng ta bit rng mi lu vc sng l mt h sinh thi, l mt tng th t nhin kh hon chnh,
l mt tp hp c quy lut ca nhiu thnh phn v nhiu b phn cc iu kin t nhin x hi. Ngoi
nhng nhn t t nhin trn y c nh hng tch cc hoc tiu cc i vi dng chy, trong thi i hin
nay s pht trin cc k nhanh chng ca sn xut, xut hin mt kh nng tc ng ca con ngi c
nh hng su sc v nhanh chng n dng chy sng ngi. Trn lnh th nc ta hin nay c hai chiu
hng trn y u th hin rt r nt.
Nhng nh hng tch cc ca hot ng kinh t i vi dng chy sng ngi nc ta ngy cng tr
thnh mt ch yu. l s nghip thy li ho, tr thy v khai thc tng hp cc dng sng ln nh. C
th ni trn khp nc ta ngy nay ang din ra mt cuc chin u v i vi thin nhin. Bng cc cng
trnh thy li, thy in, con ngi ang phn b v phn phi li ngun nc cho ph hp vi yu cu
dng nc ca sn xut v sinh hot. Nhiu cng trnh thy li, thy in s gip con ngi chinh phc cc
dng sng, hn ch, xo b bt li do ch dng chy ca n gy nn, tranh th khai thc trit ngun
thy li vn rt giu c ca sng ngi nc ta. Chng ta c th nu ln mt s cng trnh lm v d:
Cng trnh trn sng ti Ha Bnh c h cha ti 9,5 t m3 nc, in nng sn xut l 8,16t
kw/g. Cng trnh Tr An trn sng ng Nai c h cha c 2,64 t m3 nc, cng sut pht in l

55

400000 kw. Cng trnh thy in a Nhim, cng trnh thy li Du Ting thc hin phn b ngun nc
trong khng gian v thi gian, nhm phc v cho sn xut v i sng... l nhng tc ng rt tch cc
i vi dng chy sng ngi. Trong sut 40 nm qua s nghip thy li ho chinh phc cc dng sng
nc ta c nhiu thnh tch. Nu trc kia, thi thuc Php c nc mi ch c mt h cha Xun
Dng vi dung tch 7,7 triu m3, vi ba trm bm in, dm by h thng thy nng th ngy nay c nc
ta c ti 3500 h cha nc nh, 650 h cha nc ln v va, hn 2000 trm bm in. Cc cng trnh
thy li khp lnh th c kh nng ti cho 2,2 triu ha, tiu cho 85 vn ha v ngn mn cho 70 ha t
nng nghip. Sc mnh di non lp bin ca nhn dn ta thc s lm thay i dng chy theo hng c
li cho sn sut v i sng. Bng s phn phi v phn b t nhin cng trnh thy li, chng ta c th
hn ch lng dng chy ln nht, tng cng lng dng chy nh nht - c th l phn phi lng dng
chy trong nm, l vic lm tch cc nht i vi ci to sng ngi.
Mt tc ng tch cc khc n dng chy sng ngi cng kh rng khp l phong tro trng cy gy
rng, thc hin canh tc theo khoa hc nng lm kt hp bo v t, bo v nc.
Phn phi cc loi cy to nn mt cu trc rng rm kn th t b xi mn t v gi nc nhiu
nht. Thc hin mt cu trc rng ng thi phi hp bc thang, mng gi nc, c th duy tr c sn
xut vi nng sut n nh trn c s gi c nc v t. iu c nh hng rt tch cc n dng
chy ca sng ngi. Nhng nh hng tiu cc nghim trng n dng chy sng ngi nc ta l nn ph
rng, nhim bn ngun nc...
Vic thu hp thm rng, t l che ph xung di 25% din tch t t nhin gy ra nn xi mn
rt trm trng. Hng nm cc sng sui ca nc ta ra bin ng mt lng t khng l, khong
300 triu tn. Vng i ni khng c cy che ph b bo mn trung bnh 1 - 2 cm, mt i khong100 - 200
tn t /ha. Tnh hnh lm cho t trng, i ni trc lan rng, t mi khai thc cng b cn ci, bi lp
y h cha, sng, lung lch. H Thc B c ti 2,7 triu tn cht lng ng, h a Nhim cng b cn
nhiu, khng nc pht in trong ma kh, h Cm Sn cn khong 2 m trong 10 nm, mt s
h cha c vi chc triu m3 ch sau vi nm cn n mc khng c kh nng ti na. Tnh hnh
v s gy nn nhng thit hi ln cho sn xut v i sng.
Tnh hnh thm rng b thu hp nhanh chng trong nhng nm gn y c th l nhng nguyn nhn
dn n l lt, hn hn c chiu hng xy ra nhiu hn v nghim trng hn. Nhiu sng sui cc min
trn nc ta c hin tng mc nc trung bnh thp hn hn so vi trc kia v mc nc ngm nhiu
ni cng b h thp. Nhiu bn lng Ty Bc phi di i ni khc v cc sng sui cn sau khi rng
u ngun b ph hu. Qung Bnh 2 vn ha rng u ngun b bom n M ph hu, nn t nm 1970
l lt xy ra trn sng Gianh v Nht L tng ln 2,7 ln, ch thy vn hai vng k trn b nh hng
v xu i mt cch r rt. Hin ti v trong tng lai, nhp xy dng v sn xut pht trin cha tng c,
nhng tc ng tiu cc ca con ngi ti dng chy cng din ra hng ngy v su sc, chng ta phi c
ngay bin php k c php lut v vn ng gio dc bo v ngun nc lm cho nhng dng sng ca
chng ta mi mi gi c lng nc v cht nc t nhin ca chng.
Trn y l mt s nhn t ch yu nh hng ti dng chy sng ngi trn lnh th nc ta. Vic
tch bch tng nhn t ch l xem xt nhng nh hng ca chng theo hng no m thi. Cc nhn t
ca mi trng a l c th tc ng ring r nh trn, nhng ng thi chng cng phi hp thnh mt
tng th t nhin hoc mt h a sinh thi tc ng dng chy sng ngi.
Chng ta bit rng, dng chy sng ngi trn mt vng c th l h qu tt yu ca s tc ng tng
hp ca c h a sinh thi trong c dng chy sng ngi, cc kiu cnh quan khc nhau th lng
dng chy sng ngi c th chnh nhau ti 60 - 70 %. iu ch r s nh hng tng hp ca mi

56

trng ti dng chy sng ngi l rt r rt. Mi tc ng vo mi trng u phi quan tm y n

cc thnh phn ca cnh quan m bo cho ngun nc c bnh thng v trong sch v r rng th
tng hp a l thay i s ko theo s thay i tng ng v thy vn. Chnh iu mt ln na khng
nh mt iu l mi tnh ton, phn tch v thy vn sng ngi mt lu vc, mt vng no hon ton
khng th chp nhn s xem xt n cc yu t cnh quan - cc yu t nh hng n dng chy mt cch
phin din hoc s si.

57

Chng 5
DAO NG DNG CHY NM
Trong qui hoch lnh th v thit k cng trnh thy khng ch cn bit c chun dng chy nm,
m cn cn bit c s bin i ca i lng theo c thi gian ln khng gian.
Chun dng chy nm l mt c trng dng chy mang tnh cht x l thng k ca chui thi gian,
nn vic xt cc dao ng ca n lin quan mt thit n cc kin thc thng k trong thy vn. Cc khi
nim v xc sut v tn sut m bo cng c ngha thc t khi p dng vo thy vn hc.
m bo ca mt i lng thy vn l xc sut gi tr ang xt ca n c tnh tri. Xc sut l
thc o nh gi tin cy vic xut hin gi tr ny hay gi tr khc ca c trng hay hin tng ang
xt. Xc sut l t s gia s cc trng hp thun li m vi tng cc trng hp n:
p=

m.
n

(5.1)

Ngi ta phn bit gia xc sut l thuyt lim p = m v xc sut thc nghim p = m . Trong thc t
n

tnh ton thy vn m c th l tnh ton cc c trng ca dng chy (dng chy, mc nc) thng s
dng cc tn sut thc nghim c tnh ton theo cc cng thc ph bin nht l:
Cng thc S. N. Kriski v M.Ph. Menkel:

p=

m
.100% .
n +1

(5.2)

p=

m 0,3
.100 %
n + 0,4

(5.3)

Cng thc Shegodaev:

vi n s thnh phn chui; m - s th t s hng chui dng chy xp th t gim dn.

Cng thc (5.2) cho gi tr thin ln v on u ca ng cong m bo v n c s dng khi
tnh ton dng chy cc i; ngc li cng thc (5.3) cho gi tr thin nh v phn cui ng cong m
bo v n c dng tnh cc gi tr dng chy trung bnh, dng chy cc tiu.
i khi ngi ta cn dng cng thc Hazen A., rt ph bin trong tnh ton thy vn thc hnh M:

p=

m 0,5
100% .
n

(5.4)

Dao ng xc sut dng chy nm v gi tr m bo cho trc ca n c th c xc nh nh

cc ng cong m bo thc nghim dng theo cc s liu quan trc. Cc ng cong ny hoc di dng
th hoc cng thc gii tch u cho php ni (ngoi suy) vi vic s dng cc phng trnh ng cong
phn b i lng ngu nhin tng ng vi dng ng cong thc nghim.
Sai s khi thc hin ni (ngoi suy) cc ng cong ny xc nh cc gi tr dng chy vi tn sut
m bo tng ng thng khng ln lm nu trong trng hp khong ngoi suy khng vt ra ngoi
khong quan trc nhiu lm.
Vic ngoi suy v lm trn bng phng php gii tch (m thc t thng hay s dng) c p dng
vi chui quan trc ngn v di khi c nhu cu s dng phng php tng t thy vn trn cc sng cha
c nghin cu.

58

C s ca cc phng php l coi chui dng chy nm l mt chui ca cc i lng ngu nhin v
nh th c th s dng l thuyt xc sut thng k m phng cc qu trnh dng chy. xy dng cc
ng cong phn b l thuyt cn c ba tham s thng k c bn:
1. i lng trung bnh nhiu nm (chun dng chy nm) Q0 nu biu din di dng h s m un
c gi tr bng 1.
2. H s bin i Cv .
3. H s bt i xng Cs.

5.1. NG DNG L THUYT XC SUT THNG K TNH DAO NG DNG CHY NM

Mi c trng dng chy: trung bnh nm, cc i, cc tiu, phn b trong nm v s thay i ca n
theo thi gian v khng gian c xc nh bi nhiu yu t a i v phi a i. Bi vy s hnh thnh
dng chy sng ngi l mt hin tng thin nhin chu tc ng ca nhiu yu t.
Ngy nay c nhiu phng php tnh ton dng chy c xy dng da trn vic phn tch tc
ng ca cc yu t kh tng v mt m ring r. iu t c nh x l cc o c trc tip cc
thnh phn dng chy v kh tng. Vn ny ta s tip tc bn n khi nghin cu cc m hnh dng
chy.
C s l thuyt ca vic p dng l thuyt xc sut vo nghin cu v tnh ton dao ng dng chy
nm l l thuyt xc sut gii hn trung tm. L thuyt ny c s dng nghin cu cc tc ng tch
phn nhiu yu t trong cc hin tng v cc mi quan h trong mt tng th khc vi cc phng php
trc y l nghin cu tng hin tng c lp.

5.1.1. Mt s tnh cht c bn ca cc ng phn b c trng dng chy

X

X
n1
n2
n3

n1
n1+n2
n1+n2+n3

n g c o n g m b o

X1

PX1
0

Tn s

Su t m b o

100% P=n

Hnh 5.1. S xy dng ng cong phn b v ng cong m bo

Trong thc t nghin cu v tnh ton cc c trng v hin tng ngu nhin khc nhau ca nhiu
qu trnh v hin tng thin nhin a nhn t thm ch trong c nhiu yu t c c s vt l, ngi ta
s dng cc ng cong phn b khc nhau.
La chn ng cong l thuyt hay m hnh ton hc no m t hin tng v qu trnh dao ng
dng chy ch c th khi n p ng c cc i hi cn thit v mong mun ca thc t. S tng ng

59

ca ng biu din l thuyt v cc ng cong thc nghim ch t c bng cch so snh chng v
xy dng mt th hn hp.
Trn hnh 5.1 m t phng php xy dng ng cong m bo t ng cong phn phi cc s liu
quan trc lng ma.
ng cong cho mt khi nim trc quan v s phn b cc i lng nghin cu.
xk +1

V d din tch ca ng parabol t xk n xk+1(H.5.2), bng

( x)dx

l xc sut ca gi tr i

xk

lng xi nm trong khong xk n xk+1.

Y, Tn s

X
Xk

Xk+1

Hnh 5.2. ng cong phn b i xng

ng cong m bo cho thy m bo no (%) (hoc xc sut no) ca gi tr ny hay gi tr khc

ca c trng nghin cu trong s cc trng hp xut hin nhng khng ch ra c bao gi th xy ra.
tin li trong tnh ton cc c trng dng chy, cc phng trnh ng cong phn b c th b
qua kh nng dao ng ca i lng bin xi trong khong > xi 0 hoc xmax > xi xmin.
Phng trnh ng cong phn b l thuyt cn c s tham s ti thiu mi thun li s dng trong
thc tin tnh ton thy vn.
iu quan trng nht l ng cong phi c tnh n gin trong vic xc nh cc tham s v qui tc
xy dng, nhng ng thi li cho kh nng so snh gia chui s liu t c th kho st s bin
ng ca dng chy theo khng gian.

5.1.2. ng cong m bo v cc khi nim thng k

Dng chung nht ca ng cong phn b nh thc bt i xng c p dng rng ri trong tnh ton
thy vn.(H.5.3)
Trung tm phn b l im tng ng vi trung bnh s hc ca chui, l mt trong nhng tham s
chnh ca chui thng k. Tung i qua trung tm phn b gi l tung trung tm.
Trung v l gi tr ca bin nm gia dy c sp xp. Nu s thnh vin chui l chn th trung v
l trung bnh cng ca hai s hng nm gia chui. ng i qua trung v chia din tch ng cong phn
b ra hai phn bng nhau. Mod l nh ca ng cong phn b, l cc tr nu ng cong phn b c mt
nh.
Khong cch t gc to n trung tm phn b X bng:
X = xmin + a + d =1,0

hoc l h s m un K :

60

(5.5)

K =Kmin + a + d = 1,0

(5.6)

vi xmin, Kmin - cc tiu tuyt i ca i lng bin ang xt; a - khong cch t u ng cong phn b
ti mod; d - khong cch t mod ti trung tm phn b c trng cho mc bt i xng ca ng cong
phn b v gi l bn knh bt i xng; d cng ln th tnh bt i xng ca ng cong cng tng.
Y , T n s

Q
d
X

2 1

Hnh 5.3. ng cong phn b bt i xng

1- trung tm phn b; 2-trung v; 3- mod; 4 -Xmin hoc Kmin

Khi bt i xng dng th trung v v mod nm bn tri trung tm phn b, nu bt i xng m th
ngc li (bn phi). Khi ng cong phn b i xng th c ba im c trng nm trng nhau v bn
knh bt i xng bng 0.

5.2. XC NH CC THAM S C TRNG CHUI DNG CHY KHI C Y S LIU

QUAN TRC
Tham s th nht v ch yu nht ca chui l gi tr trung bnh c tnh theo cng thc:
n

Q0 =

(5.7)

tin so snh gi tr trung bnh gia vng ny vi vng khc, c th thay Q0 bng Y hoc M .
lch qun phng hay cn gi l lch chun k hiu l .
N

x =

( xi X )

x =

hoc

(x

X ) ydx
N

(5.8)

lch qun phng c cng th nguyn vi c trng phn b.

H s bin i: tin li cho vic so snh bin ng ca tng chui, lch qun phng c
biu din qua n v tng i X/ X v c gi l h s bin i Cv .
N

(x
Cv =

X
X

X )2

N
X

(x

X )2

X 2N

(5.9)

Nu (5.9) biu din qua h s m un th:

61

(K

Cv =

1) 2

(5.10)

Cng thc (5.9) v (5.10) ng vi gi thit l gi tr X N vi N . Song di ca chui trn thc

t thng rt hn ch v bng n nn trong cc cng thc tnh ton ngi ta thng thay N bng n < N.
Hiu s gia X

v X n cng ln th di ca chui cng ngn.

Trong thng k ton hc chng minh c rng:

n
.
n 1

N =

(5.11)

gim sai s xc nh X v Cv do chnh lch di chui theo (5.11) vi n < 30 nm ta th vo

ch n l (n-1). Trong trng hp :
2

(x

X =

X)

n 1
n

(K

1) 2

Cv =

(5.12)

n 1

(5.13)

vi xi - gi tr dng chy tng nm, Ki - h s m un dng chy tng nm (Ki = Qi/Q0); n - s nm quan
trc.
Vy h s bin i l thc o nh gi dao ng dng chy nm xung quanh chun dng chy nm
v bng lch qun phng tng i Cv = X/ X .
H s bt i xng Cs c trng cho tnh bt i xng ca chui i lng nghin cu xung quanh
gi tr trung bnh hoc l trung tm phn b. Cng nh Cv gi tr Cs biu din bng n v tng i v
cho php so snh tnh bt i xng ca chui ny so vi chui khc v c th khi qut c.
i vi c trng bt i xng ca chui ngi ta nhn gi tr trung bnh lp phng lch cc s
hng so vi gi tr trung bnh, v nhn c gi tr v th nguyn ngi ta chia cho lp phng lch
qun phng:
n

Cs =

(x

X )3

(5.14)

n 3

Do = Cv X nn:
n

Cs =

(K

X )3

nC v

(5.15)

Cc cng thc tnh Q , X , Cv , Cs l tnh theo s liu trc tip quan trc nn khng thy r quan h
ca n vi cc tham s ca ng cong phn b l thuyt. Tuy nhin chng c quan h qua momen.
Phng php momen l c s lm trn ng cong phn b thc nghim v ng cong thc nghim thay
c bng ng cong l thuyt c mmen din tch bng mmen din tch ng cong thc nghim.
Momen gc bc k

62

M 0k =

1 n k
xi
n 1

(5.16)

l gi tr trung bnh X bc k.
Momen trung tm bc k:

M tk =

1 n
( xi X ) k

n 1

(5.17)

l gi tr trung bnh lch cc xi ring bit xung quanh i lng trung bnh X bc k.
Cc tham s chnh ca ng cong phn b c gn vi momen gc hoc momen trung tm bi cc
ng thc sau:
1) Gi tr trung bnh s hc bng m men gc bc nht X =M0 . Khi X , K =1 th Mtt bng 1,0.
2) lch qun phng bng cn bc hai ca momen trung tm bc hai = M t2 .
3) H s bin i bng cn bc hai ca m men trung tm bc hai chia cho gi tr m men gc bc
nht
Cv =

Mt2

4) H s bt i xng bng m men trung tm bc ba chia cho lch qun phng lu tha bc ba.
Cs =

M t3

M t3

hoc

M t322

Cs =

M t3
Cv3

Vy m men trung tm bc 0 l i lng trung bnh, m men trung tm bc hai l lch qun
phng, m men trung tm bc ba l mc bt i xng.
Chn ng cong phn b nh thc c mt nhc im l gii hn di nhiu khi khng tho mn v
n cho gi tr m - khng tng ng vi thc t dng chy l i lng khng m nn trong thc t nhiu
khi cn s dng ng cong phn b S.N. Kriski v M. Ph. Menkel trn mi tng quan ca Cs = 2 Cv t
ng cong phn b nh thc v thay bin Z=aXb vi mi quan h Cv v Cs th c th tho mn vi
mi Cs < 2 Cv i lng dng chy khng m (H.5.4).
Trong thc tin tnh ton thy vn cn p dng rng ri ng cong logarit chun xut pht t phn
b chun khng phi ca bin X m l lgX, khi m dao ng ca bin X trong khong 0 < X < th dao
ng ca lgX nm trong gii hn rng hn - < lgX < , p ng c phn b chun Gaus.
Cc i lng dng chy trong phn b logart chun c biu din bng hm thng k 2 v 3:
n

2 =

lg K

(5.18)

n 1
n

3 =

lg K i

n 1

(5.19)

5.3. XC NH CC THAM S C TRNG THEO PHNG PHP GII - GII TCH G.

A. ALECXYEV
Mt trong nhng phng php xc nh tham s cc c trng thng k ca chui dng chy do G. A.
Alecxayev xut l ng dng ng cong nh thc vi mi gi tr Cv. Theo phng php ny c ba tham

63

Q,

Cv

Cs

xc

nh

qua

cc

tung

Hnh 5.4. ng cong phn b(a)v m bo(b) S.N. Kriski v M. Ph. Menkel
vi Cv =0,6; 1- Cs = Cv ; 2- Cs =2 Cv ; 3- Cs =3 Cv

64

trng ca ng cong thc nghim. Cc tung c trng l cc tung ng vi tn sut m bo 5%,

50%, 95%. Sut m bo c tnh theo cng thc (5.3) p =

m 0,3
100% vi chui quan trc dng chy
n + 0,4

nm c sp xp theo th t gim dn.

T mc ch trn li bn logarit a cc im quan trc lu lng Qi, Mi hay Ki ng theo tn sut
ca dy gim dn theo cc im trn li dn ng cong m bo thc nghim. T ng cong theo
cc im c trng ly cc gi tr Q5%, Q50% v Q95%. Sau theo cng thc tnh h s i xng ca ng
cong m bo S l mt hm ca C s .
S=

Q5% + Q95% 2Q50%

.
Q5% Q95%

(5.20)

T h s S theo bng chuyn dng, dng theo hm Cs =f(S) tnh Cs . Sau tnh gi tr lch qun
phng theo cng thc:
Q0 = CvQ0 =

Q5% Q95%
.
5% 95%

(5.21)

Q0 = Q50% Q0 50%

vi 95%,

(5.22)

50%, 5% l lch chun ca tung ng cong m bo nh thc vi Cv

=1 c tra t

bng Phoster.
H s bin i:
Cv =

Q0
Q0

(5.23)

Phng php gii gii tch c hon thin d dng hn so vi phng php m men v y l u
im chnh ca phng php. Tuy nhin chnh xc ca phng php ph thuc rt nhiu vo c s
dn ng cong m bo t s liu thc nghim, vo bin ng ca cc im v phn b ca cc im
on u v cui ng cong cng nh kinh nghim ca ngi v.
Hn na tham s u tin c tnh ton l h s bt i xng Cs - l tham s km n nh nht
trong cc tham s c trng nn c th dn n sai s phn cao v phn thp ca ng cong m bo so
vi ng phn b l thuyt. V vy ng cong gii - gii tch ch nn dng tnh chun dng chy
nm m thi.
Sai s lch qun phng tng i ca i lng trung bnh nhiu nm ca chui c tnh theo
cng thc (4.5). Khi c quan h gia cc s liu cc nm th tnh theo cng thc:
Q0 =

100Cv
n

1+

2 r
1 rn
n
n 1 r
1 r

100Cv

1+ r
1 r

(5.24)

vi r - h s tng quan dng chy gia cc nm.

Sai s qun phng ca h s bin i c tnh theo cng thc (vi phng php xc nh l phng
php momen):

Cv =

1 + Cv2
2n

100%.

(5.25)

Nu xc nh Cv bng phng php ng dng cc i th sai s c xc nh theo cng thc:

65

Cv =

2n(3 + Cv2 )

100% .

(5.26)

di ca chui nm quan trc c coi l xc nh Q0 v Cv nu Q0 5-10% cn Cv 1015%. Gi tr trung bnh dng chy nm khi c coi l chun.
Sai s qun phng trung bnh tng i ca vic xc nh h s bt i xng Cs ph thuc vo Cv
v s nm quan trc n c tnh theo cng thc:
6
1 + 6Cv2 + 5Cv3 100% .
n

Cs =

(5.27)

5.4. XC NH THAM S THNG K DNG CHY NM KHI QUAN TRC NGN

Trong mi trng hp khi m sai s tnh ton vt qu mc cho php vi chui hin c tc l chui
s liu ngn v cn phi tnh ton n thng qua vic ko di ti liu ca sng tng t. c bit vic tnh
ton Cv cn phi a v chui di nu nh thnh phn hin thi ca chui, lp li cc nm t v nhiu
nc rt him hoi v v iu lm Cv tng ln rt nhiu.
Dn Cv v thi k nhiu nm da trn c s s tng ng ca dao ng dng chy trong thi gian
ng quan trc cc tuyn o trong mt thi k di v iu bo ton t l ca Cv vi chiu di ca
chui. C th ko di Cv bng phng php gii tch hoc gii khi s nm ng quan trc trm di v
trm ngn c t 10-15 nm.
Phng php gii tch th hin qua cng thc sau:
CvN = CvNa

M Na
tg
MN

(5.28)

vi CvN - gi tr nhiu nm ca h s bin i; MN - gi tr nhiu nm ca chun dng chy nm; ch s a chng t gi tr thuc v sng tng t; tg - gc nghing ca quan h gi tr dng chy nm vi trc sng
tng t hay l h s gc.
Quan h gia hai chui dng chy trong thi k ng nm quan trc cn tho mn mi yu cu i vi
quan h khi tnh ton chun dng chy nm.
Cng thc th hai xc nh h s bin i Cv thng qua lch qun phng:
N =

(5.29)

2
1 r 1 2na

Na

vi n v na - lch qun phng ca dng chy nm tnh cho thi k ng nm quan trc n ti trm tnh
ton v trm sng tng t; N v Na - gi tr nhiu nm ca chng; r - h s tng quan gia dng chy
nm hai trm trong thi k ng nm quan trc. Nh vy h s bin i ti trm tnh ton c dn v cng
thc:
CvN =

N
Q0 N

(5.30)

Ghp cng thc (5.29) v(5.30) ta nhn c mt cng thc tnh gi tr h s bin i nhiu nm:
CvN =

hoc:

66

Cvn

1 r 2 1

2
na
2
Na

Q0n
Q
0N

(5.31)

CvN =

Cvn

1 r 2 1

2
Cvna
Q02na
2
C Na
Q02Na

Q0 n
Q
0N

(5.32)

vi Cvn v Q0n - h s bin i v dng chy trung bnh nm ti trm tnh ton cho thi k nm quan trc
ngn. Cc k hiu khc ng nht vi cc cng thc trn.
Cng thc n gin nht c s dng l:
CvN = CvNa

Cvn
.
Cvna

(5.33)

Ngoi cc phng php nu trn cng c th s dng phng php gii - gii tch xc nh h s
bin i ng thi vi hai tham s kia. Theo di cch lm trn hnh 5.5.
Qa

Qa
a)

b)
Q5%

Q50%
Q95%
Q95%

Q50%

Q5%

5%

50%

95% P%

Hnh 5.5. Xc nh cc tham s c trng theo phng php gii - gii tch

Trn hnh 5.5 t ng cong m bo dng cho sng tng t xc nh cc gi tr tung c trng
(b). T cc tung chuyn sang hnh 5.5 (a) trn cng mt t l dng quan h lu lng ca sng tng
t v sng tnh ton. T quan h nhn cc tung c trng cho sng tnh ton ri theo cc cng thc
(5.20) n (5.23) xc nh cc tham s c trng cho sng tnh ton. S tin li ca phng php ny l c
th xc nh c cc tham s theo quan h lu lng gia sng tng t v sng tnh ton d ng thng
hay ng cong u c. Nu sai s xc nh Cv theo phng php ny so vi tnh ton theo chui nm
quan trc khng vt qu 10% th dng s liu theo tnh ton. Trong thc tin tnh ton dng chy nm, ti
liu quan trc thng thiu bo m cho trc. Trong trng hp y cn phi s dng cc phng php
gin tip - phng php ni suy a l hoc tng t, cc cng thc thc nghim hoc cc th quan h.
Trc khi s dng cc phng php gin tip cn phn tch dao ng dng chy nm v cc yu t xc
nh cc dao ng la chn phng php tnh ton thch hp.
Dao ng kh hu xc lp c cc chu k l 35 nm v 11 nm gn lin vi chu k chuyn ng
ca cc hnh tinh trong h Mt Tri. Dao ng dng chy nm cng quan st thy tnh ng b vi dao
ng ca kh hu theo kt qu nghin cu ca Oppocov E.V. Cc nghin cu v sau lm sng t kt lun l
dao ng dng chy nm gn lin vi dao ng nhiu nm ca ma, bc hi v dng hon lu kh quyn.
Tuy nhin kt qu cc cng trnh nghin cu dao ng nhiu nm ca dng chy nm chng t s
thiu tnh chu k r rt chnh cc dao ng v cc pha dng chy ring bit thng c di khc nhau.
Chnh v th c c s a quan im thng k xc sut tnh ton dao ng dng chy nm nh l tc
ng a nhn t.
67

Khi nghin cu dao ng dng chy nm thng xut pht t phng trnh cn bng nc i vi thi
gian mt nm. T phng trnh cn bng nc thy rng dao ng dng chy nm ph thuc vo s bin
ng ca dng chy mt v dng chy ngm m c th l ph thuc vo s bin ng ca ma nm, bc
hi v hiu (X-Z) cng nh mc phn tn v b sung nc ngm.
Nh vy, nguyn nhn chnh ca dao ng dng chy nm l s bin i i lng nm ca cc yu t
kh hu trong lu vc sng ngi (ma, bc hi v s phn b ca chng trong nm) lin quan ti c th
ca hon lu khng kh nm ny hay nm khc. Ngay c vic phn b lng ma khng u trn lu vc
c th dn ti vic thay i din tch hot ng ca lu vc, iu ny th hin rt r vo nhng nm t
nc. Nguyn nhn quan trng th hai ca s dao ng dng chy nm l phn nc ngm cung cp cho
sng ngi, l thnh phn iu ha t nhin nc sng. Vy nhng yu t tc ng ti dao ng dng chy
nm u mang tnh a i.

5.5. XC NH THAM S THNG K DNG CHY NM KHI KHNG C QUAN TRC

Khi khi qut cc ti liu quan trc trn lnh th ta pht hin rng nhiu c trng dng chy mang
tnh a i su sc. V vy khi thiu hon ton dng chy c th da vo tnh cht ny s dng cc
phng php gin tip nh ni (ngoi suy) hoc dng cc bn , cc cng thc thc nghim trn c s
khi qut ho cao ti liu trn lnh th. xc nh h s bin i Cv dng chy nm D..L. Xocolovski
ngh cng thc (H.5.6):
Cv = a - 0,063lg (F+1)

(5.34)

vi a - tham s din tch n v; 0,063 l h s gc ca ng thng ph thuc ca Cv vo lg (F+1).

Hnh 5.6. Mi ph thuc Cv =f(lgF)

Mt s tc gi cho rng h s bin i ph thuc ch yu vo cc yu t kh hu v lng nc sng

ngi. Dn sau y mt s cng thc in hnh:
Cng thc L.K. Davdov:
CvY =

Cng thc N.P. Tsebotarev:

68

CvX

2
1 rXZo
2
1 rYZo

(5.35)

C vY =

C vX ( F )

0 ,5

vi C vX ( F ) =

C vX

(i)

F 0 , 077

(5.36)

Cng thc K.P. Voskrexenski:

Cv =

A1
M00,4 ( F + 1000) 0,10

(5.37)

trong - h s dng chy; A1- tham s tng hp; r - h s tng quan ni; F - din tch lu vc;
H s bt i xng Cs xc nh theo quan h t s Cs / Cv tu theo cc thng s v m v cc yu
t mt m khc. Thng thng thc t tnh ton gp cc t l sau: vng tha m th Cs = 1,8-1,5 Cv ; cn
vng kh hn Cs =1,5 Cv .

5.6. XY DNG NG CONG M BO V TNH TON DNG CHY NM VI XC

SUT AN TON CHO TRC
Trn y chng ta xt cc phng php xc nh tham s Q0 hay l M0, Cv v Cs dng c
cc phn b l thuyt dng chy nm theo cc to tuyt i hoc tng i.
Vi s biu din tng i tung ng cong (h s m un), khi K0 =1,0 tc l i vi ng cong
m bo v th nguyn cn c hai tham s Cv v Cs . Phng php ny rt tin khi qut tham s v so
snh vi cc tnh ton hng lot.
Phng trnh ng cong phn b nh thc c Phoster tch phn i vi cc gi tr nguyn
p=

4
Cs2

1 v ni suy cho cc gi tr cn li ri lp bng tnh lch tung ca ng cong m bo vi

im gia (K0=1) vi Cv =1,0 i vi Cs khc nhau v m bo p%, c ngha l bng gi tr:

p = f (C s , p%) =

K p 1,0
Cv

(5.38)

T suy ra:
Kp = Fp Cv + 1,0

(5.39)

c ngha l xc nh h s m un K bi bo m p% (tc l Kp) nh bng cn c Fp nhn vi gi tr

Cv ri cng thm 1,0 v tung ng cong biu din lch vi K0 = 1,0 (H.5.7).
V p =f( Cs , p%) nn gi tr m bo p% ( p) ly theo hng ca bng tng ng vi i lng
Cs .

Nh vy xc nh theo ti liu quan trc h s bin i v bt i xng, c ngha l xc nh cc

momen din tch bc hai v ba ca ng cong phn b thc nghim; chng ta nhn chng vi momen bc
hai v ba ca din tch ng cong phn b nh thc v s dng bng tnh ly tch phn phng trnh
xy dng ng cong l thuyt vi sut bo m cho trc.
Cc tham s Cv v Cs khng c n nh (c bit l Cs ) v ng cong m bo tnh ton l
thuyt tun theo cc im do chn. Do vy khi xy dng v la chn ng cong m bo cn bit Cv v
Cs tc ng n dng ca n ra sao (H.5.8).
Trn hnh 5.9 th hin cc ng cong m bo xy dng vi cc gi tr Cs khc nhau v Cv =0,50.
ng cong c xy dng vi Cs =0 i xng v ct ng nm ngang ng K=1,0 v ti im tng
ng vi 50% sut m bo (trung v trng vi tm phn b). Theo mc tng Cs th un ca ng
cong cng tng, tc l tng cc gi tr bin v gim cc gi tr nm gia chui. Gi tr Cs cng tng, nhnh

69

trn cng dc v nhnh di cng phng. Hnh 5.10 minh ho nh hng ca Cs v Cv ti ng cong
m bo S.N. Kriski v M.Ph. Menkel.

Hnh 5.7. S xy dng v s dng bng tnh tch phn xc sut

Hnh 5.8. nh hng ca h s bin i Cv n dng ng cong m bo vi Cs =0

Vi Cs < 0 (bt i xng m) ng cong c phn gia li v tung h xung hai u. Cc ng

cong vi Cs khc nhau nhng cng mt Cv ct nhau ti hai im. ngoi suy v lm trn cc ng
cong m bo thc nghim trn thc t tnh ton ngy nay s dng ng cong phn b nh thc v ng
cong phn b gamma ba tham s khng ph thuc vo phng php xc nh tham s ca chng.
Lu lng nc vi sut m bo cho trc p% c xc nh theo cng thc:
Qp = KpQ0

(5.40)

vi Kp - h s m un vi sut m bo p% cho trc ly t ng cong m bo tnh ton l thuyt; Q0 gi tr lu lng trung bnh.

70

 tnh ton cc tham s v tung ca cc ng cong m bo, xy dng cc ng cong v xc

nh cc gi tr lu lng nm vi cc iu kin c, thiu hoc khng c ti liu cn c th s dng phng
php m hnh ho m chng ta s xt cc chng sau.

Hnh 5.9. nh hng ca h s Cs n dng ng cong m bo (vi Cv =0,5)

Hnh 5.10. nh hng ca cc tham s( Cv , Cs ) n dng ca ng cong m bo Kriski v Menkel

a) Cs =3 Cv 1- Cv = 0,1; 2- Cv =0,3; 3- Cv =0,5b) Cv =0,5 1- Cs = 0,5; 2- Cs = 1,0; 3- Cs =1,5

71

Chng 6
S PHN PHI DNG CHY TRONG NM
Dng chy trong sng khng nhng thay i hng nm m cn thay i theo cc thi k trong nm.
Qu trnh thay i dng chy trong nm mang tnh cht chu k r rt, hnh thnh cc pha nc ln nh xen
k ln nhau, ph thuc vo tnh cht tun hon ca cc yu t kh hu. S thay i c tnh chu k ny c
gi l s phn phi dng chy trong nm.
S phn phi dng chy trong nm thng khng ph hp vi yu cu dng nc. Ch c nm vng
qui lut t nhin ca s phn phi dng chy trong nm mi c th li dng ngun ti nguyn thy li sng
ngi mt cch c ch v hp l. V vy vic nghin cu phn phi dng chy trong nm c ngha thit
thc i vi vic thit k v khai thc cc cng trnh thy li, tnh ton dung tch kho nc, cng sut pht
in v c trong giai on vn hnh ca kho nc.
Xc nh s phn phi dng chy trong nm cn c ngha nghin cu ch thy vn chung, xc
nh c mi quan h gia s phn phi dng chy v cc iu kin a l t nhin s dng trong
trng hp thiu ti liu.

6.1. CC NHN T NH HNG N S PHN PHI DNG CHY TRONG NM

Tnh hnh phn phi dng chy trong nm th hin qua cc c trng c bn nh bin , thi gian v
thi k xut hin cc lu lng tng ng. Phn phi dng chy trong nm thng biu th di hai hnh
thc: ng qu trnh lu lng v ng duy tr lu lng tu theo yu cu ca vic thit k cc cng
trnh.
ng qu trnh lu lng m t s thay i dng chy theo th t thi gian, thng c biu th
di dng ng qu trnh lu lng bnh qun tun (10 ngy), thng hoc ma (hoc t s phn trm so
vi ton nm), cho ta khi nim trc quan v s thay i dng chy cc thi k trong nm.
ng duy tr lu lng bnh qun ngy (cn gi l ng tn sut lu lng bnh qun ngy), cho ta
khi nim thi gian duy tr mt lu lng ln hoc bng mt lu lng no , ng duy tr mc nc
bnh qun ngy thng c s dng khi tnh ton cc cng trnh ti, giao thng thy vv...
Khi nghin cu ng qu trnh dng chy trong nm trong trng hp c y ti liu thy vn,
ngi ta thng ch nhng dng qu trnh in hnh i biu cho nhng nm hoc nhng nhm nm
nc ln, nc b, nc trung bnh. Trong trng hp thiu hoc khng c ti liu, ngi ta gii quyt theo
hai hng. Hng th nht l xc nh t phng trnh cn bng nc ca tng thi k trong nm trn c
s bit c lng ma, lng bc hi ca cc mt m khc nhau v lng tr nc trong khu vc.
Anrianp s dng phng php ny xc nh phn phi dng chy trong nm. Phng php ny
xut pht t l thuyt cn nguyn dng chy nn c ngha vt l r rng, song vic xc nh cc thnh
phn trong phng trnh cn bng nc khng n gin nht l lng tr nc ca lu vc, v vy thng
dn n sai s ln. Hng th hai l nghin cu tnh cht khu vc ca cc dng phn phi dng chy, dng
phng php tng t thy vn xc nh phn phi trong nm ca lu vc thiu ti liu.

6.1.1. Vai tr cc nhn t nh hng i vi s phn phi dng chy trong nm

S phn phi trong nm ca dng chy l do cc nhn t kh hu v mt m quyt nh. Mc d phn
phi dng chy gia cc nm khc nhau ca cng lu vc rt khc nhau nhng vn c th tm thy nhng
nt chung nht phn nh cc c im v kh hu v mt m ni .

72

Nhn t kh hu quyt nh c tnh ni chung ca s phn phi dng chy trong mt khu vc a l
no , cn cc nhn t a l t nhin khc phn nh s iu tit thin nhin v nhn to ca dng chy
trong sng m vi mt mc no y, chng c th lm thay i mt cch ng k tnh hnh phn phi
sn c.
Xut pht t phng trnh cn bng dng chy ca lu vc:
y= x - z v w

(6.1)

ta thy s phn phi dng chy trong nm ph thuc vo lng ma (x), lng bc hi (z), tr lng nc
ca lu vc (v) v s trao i nc ngm vi lu vc bn (w) trong tng thi gian. S phn phi ma v
bc hi ch yu do iu kin kh hu quyt nh. Lng tr nc ca lu vc v s trao i nc ngm vi
lu vc bn do iu kin a l t nhin quyt nh.
iu kin a vt l cng c tc dng ti cc yu t kh hu nh hng gin tip ti phn phi dng
chy trong nm nhng ch yu thng qua tr lng nc ca lu vc lm cho phn phi dng chy iu
ha hn. Trong yu t ny cn ch ti din tch lu vc, ao h, m ly, rng v iu kin a cht th
nhng.
Nhng h t nhin c nc sng lu thng c tc dng iu tit rt mnh, n tr nc trong ma l,
ri b sung li cho sng sau l lm cho dng chy iu ha hn. Tc dng iu tit ca h quyt nh bi
su ca h v dung tch cha l. Theo Xklvski lu vc c nhiu h lng dng chy cc thng rt
iu ha ch thay i t 0,90 n 1,10 ln dng chy nm, cn lu vc t h dng chy cc thng dao ng
rt ln t 0,15 4,30 ln dng chy nm. m ly cng c tc dng tng t nh h ao, m ly c din
tch rng nh ng Thp Mi c kh nng cha l rt ln. Ngoi ra do ao h m ly c mt thong ln
nn cng lm tng lng bc hi ca lu vc.
Rng v lp ph thc vt lm gim dng chy mt v lm tng dng chy ngm, lp l mc rt dy
trong rng, b r n su lm cho t ti xp c kh nng tr mt lng nc kh ln, lm gim hn lng
dng chy mt, nht l thi k u ma l. Vo gia ma l kh nng tr nc ca tng l mc vn cn
nhng do n lun bo ha nc nn tc dng lm gim lng dng chy mt c gim i. cc lu vc c
nhiu rng, lng dng chy ma kit c lng nc ngm ca lu vc cung cp lm cho phn phi
dng chy iu ha hn. nhng lu vc qu nh khng hng c nc ngm th tc dng ca rng
ngc li, lm cho dng chy km iu ha hn.
iu kin a cht th nhng ca lu vc quyt nh qu trnh thm v s hnh thnh lng nc
ngm nn c nh hng n lng dng chy ma kit. nh hng ca a cht n phn phi dng chy
trong nm r rt nht vng vi; cc hang ng vi c tc dng khc nhau i vi phn phi dng
chy iu ha hn, nhng mt mt hang ng ngm cng lm cho dng chy ma kit mt hon ton.
Vai tr ca din tch lu vc cng nh hng rt ln n phn phi dng chy trong nm. Lu vc
cng ln, din tp trung nc cng rng bao gm nhiu khu vc c iu kin hnh thnh dng chy khc
nhau th phn phi dng chy trong nm cng iu ha, ma l dng nc s khng ln xung t ngt.
Lu vc cng ln, lng sng cng ct su cng hng c nhiu nc ngm, v ma kit sng s khng
kh cn. Nhng lu vc nh, do sng ct khng su, khng hng c nc ngm nn ma kit dng chy
b gin on hon ton. nc ta do lng ma kh phong ph, lng sng ct su nn din tch gii hn
kh nh.
Ngoi nhng nhn t trn, hot ng ca con ngi nh lm thy li, trng cy gy rng, chng xi
mn... cng c tc dng n phn phi dng chy trong nm. Vic canh tc khng khoa hc, vic cht ph

73

rng lm cho t ai b xi mn tr nn cn ci c nh hng xu n iu kin hnh thnh dng chy, lm

cho phn phi dng chy trong nm khng iu ha.

6.1.2. Tnh hnh phn phi dng chy Vit Nam

nc ta lng nc ma l chim 7080% lng nc c nm, thng c lng nc ln nht
sng thuc Bc B thng l thng VII, thng VIII lng nc chim 15 35% lng nc c nm. T
Ngh An ti Qung Bnh thng c lng ma ln nht l thng X, c th chim 50% lng nc c nm,
cc sng ng v Ty Trng Sn thng c lng nc ln nht l thng IX, thng X, lng nc c th
chim 20 35% lng nc c nm. Cc sng Nam B thng c lng ma ln nht l thng IX v thng
X, chim khong 30% lng dng chy nm.
i lp vi ma ma nhiu v ma l nc ta l ma ma b (ma kh) v ma cn. Ma ma b
(ma kh) c th ni bt u t thng XI n thng IV nm sau chung cho c nc, song c x dch theo
tng a phng ging nh ma ma nhiu. Kt thc ma l l bt u ma cn cc ni. Thng X, XI bt
u ma cn Bc B v Thanh Ho, ring ng Bc, Ty Bc ma cn n sm hn, thng XII bt u
ma cn Nam B v Ty Nguyn, vng m nm gia ng v Ty Trng Sn ma cn mun nht, bt
u t thng I. Trung B ma cn b phn ct thnh hai thi k xen gia l l tiu mn. L tiu mn lm
cho dng chy tng ln, song thi gian c l ngn v vy lng nc c thng khng ln, do vn xp
vo ma cn.
Lng nc trong ma kh rt nh ch chim t 10 20% lng ma nm, Ty Nguyn c nm
lng ma ch chim 5% lng ma nm, s ngy khng ma lin tc c khi ko di ti 120 130 ngy.
Ma ma v ma kh Ty Nguyn c s tng phn nhau r rt.
Dng chy ma cn ch yu do lung nc ngm cung cp, lng nc ma cn chim 20 30%
lng nc c nm. Mc nc cc sng ngi thi k u ma cn xung thp dn, mc du trong thi k
ny khi frnt cc i trn qua Bc B c gy ma nhng lng ma nh v khng ko di nn xu th
chung ca mc nc vn gim. T Ngh An tr vo khng kh lnh qua bin nhn thm m v nhit, vo
ti t lin gp dy Trng Sn nn ma frnt vng ny c mnh hn, lm cho lng dng chy u
thng ma cn (thng XIII) vng khu IV c cn xp x 8% dng chy nm, vng ng Bc thng X,
vng sng Hng vo thng XI lng dng chy thng cng cn t 6 8% lng dng chy nm, cc vng
khc lng nc thp hn.
Giai on n nh ca ma cn thng ko di khong 3 thng, lng dng chy nh hn so vi cc
thng trong nm, lng nc ca 3 thng ny ch chim 7 8%, vng t nc t l cn 3 4%.
Giai on cui ma cn hot ng ca gi ma pht trin, nhng vo thi gian ny thng xuyn
xut hin dng chy nh nht, l lc nc ngm cung cp cho sng t gi tr nh nht, tuy c ma
nhng dng chy sng ngi cha c b sung.

6.2. NM I BIU MA NM V DNG CHY NM

6.2.1. La chn nm i biu
C nhiu phng php xc nh s phn phi dng chy trong nm, trong phng php thng
c s dng l phng php nm i biu(ma nm v dng chy nm). Phng php nm i biu l
phng php chn s phn phi ca nm thc o lm mu, dng t s phn phi ca tng thng nm
nhn vi gi tr lu lng nm ng vi tn sut bo m s c m hnh phn phi dng chy thit k.

74

Phn phi dng chy ca nhng nm nhiu nc v t nc thng c c im khc nhau v vy ta

c th chn nm i biu nhiu nc, nm i biu t nc v nm i biu nc trung bnh.
Nm i biu nc trung bnh c chn t mt nm thc o c tng lng dng chy nm xp x vi
gi tr trung bnh ca tng lng dng chy trong nhiu nm v dng phn phi (ng qu trnh nm dng
chy) gn vi dng trung bnh nhiu nm.
Nm i biu t nc (hoc nhiu nc) c chn t mt nm thc o c tng lng dng chy nm
cc tiu(hoc cc i).

6.2.2. Phn phi dng chy theo phng php nm i biu

Sau khi chn c nm i biu ngi ta tnh t s phn phi ca tng thng, % ca lng dng chy
thng so vi ton nm l dng phn phi dng chy trong nm ca nm i biu, t phn phi dng
chy ca nm i biu ta s tm c phn phi dng chy ng vi tn sut thit k.

6.3. PHNG PHP PHN PHI DNG CHY TRONG NM THEO QU TRNH NGU
NHIN
S phn phi dng chy trong nm theo qu trnh ngu nhin ta c th dng chui Mccp n m
t. Phng php ny coi mt tr s lu lng ca mt thng th i no : Q1 cu to bi hai thnh phn:
Phn lu lng xut hin theo quy lut ch ph thuc vo lu lng xut hin thng trc Qi -1, c
biu th bng tr s trung bnh iu kin:
Q'i = Qi + i, i 1

i
(Q Qi 1 )
i 1 i 1

(6.1)

trong : Qi , Qi 1 - lu lng trung bnh nhiu nm thng th i v i -1

i, i-1 - khong chnh lch qun phng ca lu lng thng th i v i- 1,

i,i-1 - h s tng quan ca lu lng thng th i v i- 1.
Phn lu lng xut hin theo qui lut ngu nhin ph thuc vo xc sut iu kin, c biu th

bng = f(Pi,Csi)

i - khong chnh lch tiu chun,

Pi - xc sut iu kin gi tr ngu nhin ca thng th i,
Csi - h s khng i xng ca phn phi xc sut iu kin.
Theo l thuyt xc sut ta c:
i =

Qi Q'i

Q' i

Qi Q'i

i i, i 1

(6.2)

trong Q'i l khong lch qun phng ca phn phi xc sut iu kin.
Thay gi tr Q'i vo trn ta c:
Qi = Qi + i, i 1

i
(Q Qi 1 ) + i i 1 i2, i 1 .
i 1 i 1

(6.3)

Cc thng s thng k Qi , Qi 1 , i, i 1 c xc nh theo ti liu thc o bng phng php to s

ngu nhin ta c th xc nh c xc sut iu kin Pi, v vy lu lng th i c hon ton chnh xc
nu bit lu lng thng th i -1, bit c lu lng thng th i ta li tnh tip cho thng sau, c th ta
c mt qu trnh lu lng trung bnh thng.

75

Do vic s dng my tnh kh ph bin nn ng dng l thuyt qu trnh ngu nhin vo tnh ton
thy vn ngy cng c m rng, song do s liu thy vn cn qu t, vic xc nh cc thng s thng k
c bn cha bo m, hn na gi thit qu trnh lu lng trung bnh thng tun theo qu trnh Mckp
n cng cha c sc thuyt phc nn cng cn nhng hn ch nht nh.

6.4. NG CONG DUY TR LU LNG

6.4.1. ngha v cc c trng biu th
ng cong duy tr lu lng l mt hnh thc biu th phn phi dng chy trong nm thi khong,
n biu th thi gian xut hin ca tr s bng hoc ln hn mt lu lng no nn cn gi l ng tn
sut thi gian lu lng ngy.
ng duy tr lu lng ca mt nm c th v theo ti liu lu lng thc o (bng lu lng bnh
qun ngy ca nm ), cn c vo bin lu lng ca nm ta chia dy s lu lng ngy ton nm
thnh mt s cp thng k s ngy xut hin ca mi cp lu lng, ri cng dn s ngy xut hin theo
cp lu lng t ln n nh (hoc biu th bng s phn trm).
xy dng ng duy tr lu lng nhiu nm c th tin hnh theo hai cch:
- Ghp ton b lu lng bnh qun ngy thnh mt chui ri cng lm nh i vi tng nm. ng
duy tr lu lng xy dng theo cch ny c gi l ng duy tr lu lng tng hp, c u im l n
khng ch c ton b bin thay i ca lu lng bnh qun ngy trong sut thi gian c ti liu,
nhng khi lng tnh ton ln.
- Tnh to ng duy tr lu lng cho tng nm ri bnh qun gi l ng duy tr lu lng trung
bnh. Trong s bin nin thng v ng duy tr lu lng tng nm, nn cch lm nh vy thng
n gin nhanh chng.
Trong phm vi tn sut bin i t 10% n 90% th hai tn sut trung bnh v tng hp gn nh trng
nhau. u trn (p <10%) ng tng hp nm trn ng trung bnh, ngc li u di (p>90%) th
ng tng hp nm di ng trung bnh. i vi vic dng nc r rng ng trung bnh khng an
ton. khc phc iu ny trong tnh ton thc t thng v theo nm i biu, i biu nm nhiu nc,
trung bnh, t nc v phn trong phm vi u di cn c vo gi tr Qngmax v Qngmin o c trong chui
nm thc o sa cha thch hp.
i vi lu vc phn phi dng chy c dng iu ha, duy tr lu lng c dng thoi v ngc li.
biu th s phn phi dng chy khng u trong nm Xklpxki a vo khi nim h s iu tit t
nhin .
1

pdk

(6.4)

trong
p- thi gian duy tr(%) lu lng K (K l h s m un)

chnh l tng din tch ca ng cong duy tr lu lng vi cc gi tr K = 1,0 so vi ton b

din tch ca ng lu lng; biu th t s gia phn dng chy chy qua tuyn ca ra ca lu vc
trong thi gian lu lng trong sng nh hn lu lng bnh qun nhiu nm so vi lng dng chy ton
nm. Phn dng chy ny ch yu do nc ngm v mt phn nc mt cung cp. Khi phn phi dng
chy c dng iu ha (lu vc iu tit tt) th h s iu tit t nhin ln.
tnh ton dung tch kho nc ngi ta a ra khi nim h s li dng dng chy.

76

Kd

(Kd ) =

pdk

(6.5)

trong K - h s mun lu lng ng vi lu lng nc dng

Lc dung tch kho nc c tnh bng biu thc:
Vkho = W [ K-.(K) ]
W- Tng lng dng chy nm trung bnh nhiu nm.
K
b)

a)
2

1
1

p d k

T d k

0
0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

V V

T
X

Hnh 6.1. S xc nh h s iu tit t nhin ca dng chy

a) ng duy tr lu lng
b) ng qu trnh lu lng

6.4.2. Phng php m hnh ho ng cong duy tr lu lng

c th tng hp ng duy tr lu lng dng cho trng hp thiu ti liu thc o, ngi ta
thng m hnh ho ng cong duy tr lu lng bng cc phng trnh ton hc. Lin X thng coi
biu thc gii tch ca Urvaiep(1941) vi cch dng ng cong khng i xng ca Goolrich (1926) l
ph hp v c dng:
P = 1 10

K
K
C max
K K min

(6.6)

trong :
C v n - tham s ca ng cong;
P- tn sut thi gian ng vi h s m un lu lng K, tnh theo s thp phn;
Kmax, Kmin- h s m un lu lng ng vi lu lng bnh qun ngy ln nht

v nh nht.

i vi lu vc c ti liu da vo cc ta ng duy tr lu lng ta c th xc nh thng s C

v n bng cch lga ho hai ln (6.6) ri xc nh chng theo quan h ng thng:
K
K
lg[lg(1 p)] = lg C + n lg max
K
K

min

(6.7)

i vi lu vc thiu ti liu, thng s C v n c xc nh theo lu vc tng t hoc theo bn

phn khu tng hp sn.
ng dng dng ng cong Urvaisep cho iu kin thy vn nc ta, thy c nhiu trng hp quan
h (6.7) khng hon ton l ng thng m gy khc, mt khc ngha vt l - thy vn ca thng s C
vn khng r rng, mc d tc gi cho C v n quan h vi din tch lu vc, mc ao h... chng hn:

77

0 , 95

c = (F+1)0,32 + 0,01 f ao
n = .(F+1)-0,05

(6.8)
(6.9)

trong :
fao - mc h ao(%)

0 - h s xc nh theo bn , gi l thng s a l
F- din tch lu vc.
V vy, qua nghin cu c im thy vn nc ta, chng ti ngh s dng hm m dng:
K= Kmax.e-p

(6.10)

trong :

, - cc tham s ca ng cong
Loga ho hai ln biu thc (6.10) ta c:
lg[ln Kmax -ln K] = lg + lg + lgp

(6.11)

ta d dng rt ra c:
= ln
= lg

Qng max
Qng min

ln K max

/ lg p

(6.12)
(6.13)

vi p* tn sut tng ng vi K=1,0.

H s iu tit t nhin c th xc nh theo biu thc gii tch di y:

= m

n=0

d m (am )
d( a x )

(6.14)

trong m = 1/; x = lnk; a = lnKmax.

Qua th tnh cho min Bc nc ta, trong trng hp khng c l c bit ln v hn cc nh th dng
hm m ny kh ph hp.

6.5. PHNG PHP XC NH M HNH PHN PHI DNG CHY NM KHI C TI LIU
QUAN TRC
M hnh phn phi dng chy trong nm hin nay ang c s dng rng ri c hai hng:
- Phng php Anryanp l phng php t hp thi khong vi s liu khng t hn 10-15 nm.
- Phng php nm in hnh.

6.5.1. Phng php V.G. Anryanp

Theo phng php ny, dng chy trong nm, trong thi k gii hn v trong ma gii hn cng mt
tn sut. Phng php ny lp m hnh phn phi cho nm thy vn (t u ma l nm trc n cui
ma kit nm tip theo). Thng thng nm thy vn khng trng vi nm lch i.
Tr s dng chy trong nm cc thi khong c biu th bng tng cc lu lng bnh qun.
ng tn sut kinh nghim c xy dng theo tr s dng chy nm, dng chy thi k gii hn.
Phng php xc nh cc tham s thng k v ng tn sut l lun c trnh by chng 5.

78

Tr s dng chy ca ma cn li (khng phi l ma gii hn) c xc nh bng hiu ca dng

chy nm vi dng chy gii hn.
S phn phi dng chy theo thng trong ma c ly bnh qun i vi mi nhm nm ca ma
tnh ton (nhm nm nhiu nc bao gm nhng nm vi tn sut dng chy ma cn P% < 33%; nhm
nm nc trung bnh bao gm nhng nm vi tn sut dng chy ma cn 33% P% 66 %; v nhm
nm t nc P% > 66%).
i vi mi ma trong nhm nc tng ng, lu lng bnh qun thng c sp xp trong mt
hng theo th t gim dn v ghi r tn theo thng lch. i vi tt c nhng nm cng nhm nc, tin
hnh cng cc lu lng trung bnh thng cng ct v tnh tng cc lu lng bnh qun trong thng trong
c ma (ly tng theo hng sau ly tng theo ct). Da vo kt qu tnh tng lu lng tng ct xc
nh c s phn phi dng chy theo thng trong ma theo t l phn trm so vi lng dng chy c
ma. Cc t s phn trm ca thng theo s th t c gn cho cc thng c tn s xut hin nhiu nht
(trong tng ct).
Nhn cc t s phn trm(h s phn phi) ca cc thng trong mi ma vi t l phn trm lng
nc ca ma v ghp cc ma li theo trnh t thi gian, bt u t ma nhiu nc, ta phn phi dng
chy trong nm. Vi mi nhm c t s phn phi dng chy nm tng ng (nhm nm nhiu nc,
nhm nm nc trung bnh v nhm nm t nc).
Theo kin ca nhiu ngi nghin cu thy vn th phng php ny c nhiu u im v s
dng lng thng tin cha trong chui quan trc dng chy nhiu nht (so vi cc phng php khc), vi
tn sut nm o c 12 - 15 nm, cho ta kt qu kh quan v chnh xc.

6.5.2. Phng php nm in hnh

Ta tin hnh phn phi dng chy nm ng vi tn sut thit k theo m hnh phn phi ca mt nm
xy ra, c chn lm nm in hnh.
Tu theo yu cu tnh ton c th chn nm in hnh nhiu nc, nm trung bnh hoc nm t nc.
Theo quy phm tm thi tnh ton thy vn, dng phn phi dng chy trong nm ca nm thc o c
th dng lm in hnh nu tn sut dng chy nm, dng chy trong thi k gii hn, dng chy trong ma
gii hn gn bng nhau v tn sut ng thi ca cc tr s ph hp vi yu cu s dng ngun nc,
hoc ch sai lch trong khong 10 - 15%. Nu chnh lch, phi hiu chnh cc gi tr dng chy tng thng
trong ma gii hn v cc thng cn li trong nm.
Trong trng hp khng chn c nm in hnh th ta phi dng phng php khc tnh phn phi
dng chy nm thit k.

6.6. TNH TON PHN PHI DNG CHY NM KHI THIU TI LIU QUAN TRC
Khi khng ti liu quan trc hoc khng c ti liu ngi ta thng s dng cc phng php sau
y xy dng m hnh phn phi dng chy trong nm:
- Phng php lu vc tng t khi iu kin a l t nhin ng nht.
- Phng php quan h gia cc thng s phn phi ca cc yu t nh hng

6.6.1. Phng php lu vc tng t

Phng php lu vc tng t tnh phn phi dng chy trong nm c tin hnh trong trng
hp ng nht v cc iu kin a l t nhin v khi ti liu o c song song hai sng nghin cu v

79

tng t khng t hn mt nm. Sng tng t phi tho mn iu kin l lp dng chy trong ma t nc
khng khc nhiu so vi sng nghin cu.
i vi sng t c nghin cu c th dng cc c trng phn phi dng chy sau y ca sng
tng t.
- Ranh gii cc ma (ma l, ma cn, thi k gii hn), ba thng nh nht (ma gii hn) v.v..
- T l dng chy bnh qun cc ma so vi dng chy nm(%)
- T s gia h s bin ng ca dng chy cc ma (ma gii hn, thi k gii hn) so vi h s bin
ng ca dng chy nm.
- S phn phi dng chy trong ma t nc cho cc nhm nm nhiu nc, trung bnh, t nc.

6.6.2. Quan h gia cc thng s phn phi vi cc nhn t nh hng (xy dng cho tng vng)
Trng hp khng c sng tng t ng tin cy c th phn phi dng chy theo cc quan h gia
cc thng s phn phi dng chy (t l dng chy bnh qun cc ma so vi dng chy nm, t s gia h
s bin ng ca dng chy nm vv..) vi cc nhn t nh hng (m un chy nm, cao trung bnh lu
vc, t l rng, din tch ao h, din tch lu vc vv...).
- T l phn phi ma cn (thi k gii hn) c xc nh bng cng thc sau:
K cn =

Q
Q

cn

nm

Ycn
(%) .
Ynm

(6.15)

- T l phn phi ma chuyn tip (nhng thng cn li trong ma cn) xc nh bng cng thc sau:

K1 = K cn K 3 min (%) .

(6.16)

- T l phn phi ba thng nh nht (ma gii hn) c xc nh bng cng thc sau
K 3 min =

Q
Q

3 min

nm

Y3 min
(%) .
Y nm

(6.17)

- T l phn phi ma l c xc nh bng cng thc sau:

K 2 = 100 K can (%) .

(6.18)

- Quan h gia t l phn phi ma cn vi mun dng chy bnh qun nhiu nm c dng:
Kcn = b -aM0

(6.19)

trong a,b - cc tham s a l, xc nh theo tng vng (c bng tra sn).

6.6.3. Dng ng tn sut lu lng bnh qun ngy

Khc vi ng qu trnh lu lng bnh qun, ng tn sut lu lng bnh qun ngy ch cho php
ta xt thi gian duy tr mt lu lng no trong sng m khng xt c tnh hnh phn phi dng
chy theo thi gian
Dng ng c ph bin Lin X do V.A Urvaep v V.G. Anryanp kin ngh c dng sau:
P = 1 - 10

K K
c max
K K min

trong :
P- tn sut bo m tng ng vi h s mun K, tnh theo s thp phn.

80

(6.20)

Kmax v Kmin - h s mun lu lng tng ng Qmax, Qmin,

C, n - tham s a l (xc nh theo bn phn khu).
Qua kho st thc t trong cc phng trnh hin c s dng cho phn phi dng chy nm th dng
thch hp nht vi iu kin min Bc nc ta nh sau:
Kp = Kmax e -p

(6.21)

Kp- h s mun lu lng ng vi lu lng c tn sut P tnh theo phn trm; ,- tham s.
Ngoi cc phng php tnh phn phi dng chy nm thit k theo s qui nh ca qui phm, trong
tnh ton thy vn thng gp cc phng php sau y:
-Phng php cng tn sut
-Phng php iu tit ton chui.

6.6.4. Phng php cng tn sut tnh phn phi dng chy trong nm thit k
Ni dung ca phng php ny l xy dng ng tn sut dng chy bnh qun thng, xc nh cc
lu lng thng thit k (cng mt tn sut), ghp cc tr s thit k theo cc thng ca nm ta thu c
phn phi dng chy trong nm thit k.
Phng php xy dng phn phi dng chy trong nm thit k cng tn sut cho n nay c nhiu
kin, tuy u im ca phng php ny l cho ta kt qu khch quan, song n c nhc im rt ln l
phn phi dng chy trong nm c xy dng l phn phi gii, hu nh khng c kh nng xy ra trong
thc t, v vy ngi ta t dng phng php ny.

6.6.5. Phng php iu tit ton chui

Theo phng php ny khi tnh ton thit k ngi ta dng ton b ti liu lu lng bnh qun thng
ca tt c cc nm quan trc v tnh ra cc c trng, thit k cn thit.
tnh ton phng php ny ti liu quan trc yu cu phi di. Phng php ny thng c dng
trong vic tnh ton thy nng xc nh cng sut bo m, lu lng nc dng bo m v.v...
u im ca phng php ny l s dng c mt lng thng tin ln cha trong chui quan trc,
kt qu tnh ton c mc tin cy cao. Song c phn phi dng chy trong nm ta li phi s dng cc
phng php trnh by.

6.6.6. Phng php phn tch qu trnh ngu nhin

Ni dung ca phng php ny l xem qu trnh phn phi dng chy trong nm l mt qu trnh ngu
nhin. y l mt phng php hin nay ang pht trin, song ng dng ca n trong thc hnh gp nhiu
kh khn v mt th thut v phng php tnh.

81

Chng 7
DNG CHY LN NHT
L l mt pha ca ch dng chy sng ngi c lng cp nc ln nht trong nm. vng nhit
i ngun cp nc ch yu ca sng pha nc ny l do ma. Dng chy ln nht l tr s lu lng tc
thi hoc tr s bnh qun ngy m ln nht trong nm.
L do ma c to thnh trn cc sng do s ng gp ca cc th tch nc c s trn cc khu vc
khc nhau ca lu vc vi t l khc nhau qua qu trnh chy truyn i qua trm khng ch.
L c to thnh chu nhiu chi phi ca cc iu kin a l t nhin phc tp, nn nghin cu l
khng th b qua vic nghin cu cc thnh t to l, c trng cho qu trnh hnh thnh l.

7.1. NGHA NGHIN CU L V CC C TRNG DNG CHY LN NHT

Nghin cu v tnh ton dng chy l v dng chy ln nht c tm quan trng v thc t ln ngha
khoa hc.
ngha khoa hc ca vic nghin cu dng chy l v dng chy ln nht l chng xc nh c im
chung ca ch dng chy sng ngi mt vng. Cc c im c bn ca dng chy l nh thi gian duy
tr l, cng ln xung, mun nh l... thng c quan h cht ch vi iu kin kh tng v a l t
nhin ca lu vc, n phn nh s thay i theo khng gian ca cc yu t .
ngha thc t ca vic nghin cu dng chy l ch n l s liu quan trng cho thit k cc cng
trnh. Thit k vi tr s nc l thin nh s dn n cng trnh c th b ph hoi. Thit k vi mt tr s
nc l thin ln, kch thc cc cng trnh cha l, x l ln s gy ra lng ph v lm cho hiu ch cng
trnh gim thp.

7.2. CC YU T NH HNG TI DNG CHY LN NHT

Cc yu t nh hng ti dng chy l c th phn thnh hai loi chnh: yu t kh tng v yu t
mt m.
Trong yu t kh tng ma ro c tc dng quyt nh, cung cp ngun dng chy. Yu t mt m
nh hng ti qu trnh tn tht v qu trnh tp trung dng chy.
Ni n cc yu t kh hu trc ht ni n ma. Ma tc ng n dng chy cc i tng lng
ma, cng ma v tnh cht ca ma.
Ch ma nc ta rt phong ph, c ti trn 80% lng ma trong nm tp trung vo ma ma,
s ngy ma c th t 80 120 ngy. Ma ma h thng c nc ln, lng ma cng kh ln, c
bit l ma ging, nhng ma ging thng din ra trn din tch khng ln trong mt thi gian ngn, v
vy n thng c nh hng ti s hnh thnh dng chy l trn lu vc nh. i vi lu vc ln, l do t
hp ca nhiu hnh thi thi tit nh ging, bo, ng t, hi t nhit i, rnh thp... din ra lin tc v
bao trm mt din tch ln, lm cho mc nc sng cao v duy tr trong thi gian di rt d gy ra l ln.
V d: Trn l ln trn sng Hng thng VIII nm 1971 l do xoy thp trn di hi t kt hp vi bo
gy nn, ma phn b trn din tch rng, lng ma t 200 300 mm tr ln chim 85% din tch lu
vc, lng ma t 400 500mm cng c din tch khng nh.
Xt trong mt trn ma th cng ma tc thi lun lun thay i, tuy thi gian duy tr cng
ma ln khng di nhng c tc dng quyt nh hnh thnh lu lng nh l. nc ta nhng trn ma

82

di vi lng ma ln thng c nhiu nh vi thi gian c cng ma ln. Tng ng vi qu trnh

ma l qu trnh l c nhiu nh.
Cc yu t mt m l dc sn, hng sn, m ca t, thm thc vt, in trng v.v.. c nh
hng ln n tc tp trung nc v ln ca l.
Vai tr ca a hnh, hng ni i vi s phn b l cng kh r nt, nhng dy ni cao, n gi
thng hnh thnh nhng tm ma ln nh: ng Triu, Bc Quang, Tam o... nhng ni c m un
nh l ln. Nhng trn ma ging kt hp vi a hnh thng gy nn nhng trn l ln trn lu vc nh.
Yu t mt m cn c tc dng quyt nh ti hai khu chnh trong qu trnh hnh thnh dng chy
l: qu trnh tn tht v qu trnh tp trung nc trn sn dc v sng.
Mt phn lng ma c gi li trn l cy, tn rng khng sinh dng chy, lng nc ph
thuc vo mt v loi hnh thc vt trn lu vc. Tn rng (nht l tn rng nhiu tng) c kh nng gi
li mt lng nc ma kh ln, nhng rt kh nh gi ng mc nh hng ca n n dng chy l.
Rng c tc dng lm gim dng chy mt, tng dng chy ngm, lm gim nh l v ko di thi
gian l. Vo u ma l tc dng kh mnh, gia v cui ma l, khi lu vc bo ha nc tc dng
gim i. Khi ma ko di nhiu gi, lp nc tn tht do ngng ng trn l cy, tn rng c th b
qua, song tc dng iu tit do rng th cn xt n.
Ngoi lng tn tht do tn rng gi li, mt phn lng nc ma khc ng trong cc hang hc,
ch trng, ao h, m ly. Khi tnh ton l i vi nhng trn l ln, tn tht thng khng ng k,
song tc dng iu tit ca ao h m ly th khng th b qua.
Khi bt u ma hai qu trnh trn c th nh hng ng k, khi ma ko di nh hng ca hai qu
trnh trn gim dn, cn qu trnh thm vn tip tc trong sut trn ma v trong c qu trnh tp trung
nc trn lu vc. V vy, lng nc thm thng c coi l tn tht chnh khi xy dng cc cng thc
tnh ton dng chy l. Khi ma ri xung cng thm lc u rt ln, sau gim dn v dn t ti tr s
n nh. Cng thm va thay i theo thi gian va thay i theo khng gian v n ph thuc cht ch
vo cc tnh cht c l ca t, m cc tnh cht li ph thuc vo bin ng loi t rt phc tp theo
khng gian. Hin nay, trong tnh ton ngi ta thng ly mt tr s cng thm n nh bnh qun cho
ton lu vc.

7.3. S HNH THNH DNG CHY L

7.3.1. S hnh thnh dng chy l
Khi mt ni no trong lu vc bt u ma, nc ma ng li trn l cy, lp cc khe rng trn
mt t v thm t lp t mt, lp nc ma ban u b tn tht hon ton. Nu ma vn tip tc vi
cng ma tng dn v khi ln hn cng thm th trn mt t bt u hnh thnh dng chy. Do
ma thay i theo khng gian v thi gian nn c khi hoc ton b lu vc hoc ch mt phn din tch ca
lu vc sinh dng chy. Dng chy sinh ra trn cc phn ca lu vc di tc dng ca trng lc lp tc
chy theo sn dc, mt phn tch li cc ch trng, hang hc, phn cn li tip tc chy t ni cao ti
ni thp. Khi dng chy vo sng, mc nc sng bt u dng cao, trong qu trnh chy trong sng n
khng ngng c b sung thm nc do hai bn sn dc dc sng vo. Qu trnh chy t t im
sinh dng chy ti mt ct ca ra l qu trnh v cng phc tp.
Trong qu trnh sinh dng chy v qu trnh chy t v mt ct ti ca ra, dng nc vn khng ngng
b tn tht. Trn thc t cc qu trnh xy ra ng thi v ln vi nhau khng th tch bit c, nhng
trong tnh ton li phi chia ra d dng x l.

83

Hnh (7.1) l s khi qut qu trnh ma, qu trnh thm (lng tn tht chnh trong dng chy l)
v qu trnh hnh thnh dng chy. Lc bt u ma cng ma nh hn cng thm (at<Kt) lng
ma b tn tht hon ton (H0). T thi im t1 cng ma ln hn cng thm, dng chy mt hnh
thnh. Cng ma tng ln, cng thm gim dn, lp nc trn b mt lu vc mi ngy mt dy
thm, cng sinh dng tng ln:
ht = at - Kt (cn gi l cng cp nc),
Lu lng mt ct ca ra cng dn tng ln. Qu trnh ma t ti cng ln nht, sau cng
ma gim dn, qu trnh cp nc ko di n thi im t2 khi at = Kt, lc lp nc mt trn lu vc
t gi tr ln nht.
Ho

a,k
h

kt~t

YTcn
mm/ph

t0

at~t

t1

t2

Tcn

t3

Hnh 7.1. S khi qut qu trnh ma v qu trnh dng chy

a-Cng ma; K-Cng thm; h-Cng sinh dng chy

Thi gian t t0n t2 gi l thi gian cp nc Tcn v
t2

YTcn =

t2

ht dt =

t1

(a

K t ) dt

(7.1)

t1

YTcn c gi l lp cp nc.
Khi t > t2 cng ma nh hn cng thm (at < Kt), tuy qu trnh cp nc kt thc nhng
dng chy trn sn dc lu vc gim dn vn cung cp nc cho sng ti khi ht nc, qu trnh l c
duy tr mt thi gian bng thi gian chy t trn lu vc . V trong giai on nc rt vn cn tn tht nn
lp cp nc thng ln hn dng chy trn l (YTcn > y), nhng khi tnh ton n gin, ngi ta vn
cho rng chng bng nhau.

7.3.2. Cng thc tnh Q max v s phng php tnh Qmax t ti liu ma ro
T cng thc cn nguyn dng chy ta xt cc trng hp khi thay i quan h gia thi gian ma v
thi gian chy truyn.

Qt =

t f d

(7.2)

Di y l cc trng hp c th ca cng thc (7.2) khi hnh thnh dng chy ln nht:
- Trng hp Tcn > . Trong cng thc (7.2) ta d dng nhn thy dng chy ln nht ch hnh thnh
cui thi khong th 4 hoc th 5.
84

Q4= h1f4 + h3f3 +h3f2 +h4f1

(7.3)1

Q5 = h2f4 +h3f3 +h4f2 +h5f1

(7.3)2

h
b)

a)

h3

h3
h4

h4
h2

h2

h5
h1

F
f1

f2

f3

f4

F
f1

f2

f3

f4

Hnh 7.2. Cng cp nc bnh qun ln nht

so snh xem (7.3)1 v (7.3)2 gi tr no ln hn ta tin hnh: V trn giy k ly (hnh 7.2) ln lt
cc din tch b phn f1h4, f2h3,... ca cng thc (7.3)1 v f1h5, f2h4,... ca cng thc (7.3)2.
1

Nu ta thay cc gi tr h1, h2, h3, h4 trong hnh v (7.2a) bng mt tr s bnh qun h v thay h2, h3,
2

h4, h5 trong hnh (7.2b) bng mt tr s bnh qun h ta vn c cc din tch tng ng (7.3)1 v
(7.3)2. Nh vy c th vit li biu thc Q4 v Q5 nh sau:
1

Q4= h .F,
2

Q5 = h .F.
1

So snh ta thy h > h nn Q5 > Q4 v lu lng nh l Qmax = AQ5

T y ta c th rt ra cng thc tng qut:
Qmax = h. F

(7.4)

trong : F- din tch lu vc; h - cng cp nc bnh qun ln nht trong thi gian chy t .
cng thc tng qut hn, v dng vi cc n v khc nhau ngi ta a vo h s i n v K
Y
Qmax = Kh F = K F

(7.5)

trong Y -lp cp nc ln nht trong khong chy t

T (7.5) ta thy ton b din tch lu vc F tham gia hnh thnh nh l, nhng li ch c mt phn
lng ma tham gia vo hnh thnh nh l m thi, phn lng ma l lng ma ln nht ri xung
lu vc trong thi gian chy t . Dng chy ln nht trong trng hp ny c gi l dng chy hon
ton (vi ngha ton b din tch lu vc tham gia vo vic hnh thnh nh l).
- Trng hp Tcn = th khng nhng ton b din tch m cn ton b lng ma tham gia hnh
thnh dng chy nh l, y l iu kin pht sinh dng chy
hon ton.
- Trng hp Tcn <. Gi s vn lu vc nh vy vi bn mnh din tch chy cng thi gian ( = 4),
nhng ch c 3 khong ma sinh dng chy h1, h2, h3 (Tcn = 3), cng lp lun nh trng hp Tcn > ta c
dng chy sau:
Q3 = h1f3 + h2f2 +h3f1

(7.6)1

85

Q4 = h1f4 + h2f3 + h3f2 .

(7.6)2

Lu lng ln nht trong trng hp ny ch c th xy ra cui thi khong th ba hoc th t.

Cng ging nh trng hp trc, biu th lng ma trung bnh cho c 3 thi on bng hTcn ta c:
Tcn
Qmax = hTcn
fi

i =1 max

Tcn

fi

i =1 max

(7.7)

l f2 + f3 + f4 l phn din tch ln nht trong cc phn din tch tng ng vi thi gian cp

nc Tcn.
t FTcn=

Tc n

ta
fi

i =1

max

c:

Q max

= hT

=
F
cn Tcn

YTcn
FT
Tcn
cn

(7.8)

Ta thy Qmax chnh l lu lng ln nht ti mt ct ca ra FTcn no , mt ct ny cng khng nht

thit phi l mt ct ca ra ca lu vc. V vy lu lng ln nht mt ct ca ra phi nh hn lu lng
tnh c t cng thc (7.8) vi l do khi chy truyn ti mt ct ca ra sng l b bin dng. Cng thc
(7.8) dng trong thc t rt kh khn. tin khi tnh ton gi thit FTcn = F . Thc cht ca gi thit ny l
Tcn

do lu vc c dng hnh ch nht, do cng thc (7.8) cng c dng nh (7.4),(7.5).

Trong nhiu trng hp, lp cp nc ln nht Y, cn c biu th di dng h s dng chy, v
vy (7.5) c th vit thnh:

Q max

= K

(7.9)

trong gi l h s dng chy nh l

=

Y
H

(7.10)

H - lp ma ln nht thi khong ; Y - lp dng chy ln nht trong khong

t a = H cng ma ln nht trong thi khong ta c:

Qmax = K a F.

(7.11)

Cng thc (7.10) v (7.11) l dng c bn nht ca cng thc l lun tnh dng chy ln nht t
ma ro. Hin nay c ti hng trm cng thc tnh Qmax khc nhau, cc cng thc c cc tham s v
thm ch kt cu b ngoi khc nhau, nhng u c th suy ra t cng thc c bn trn y. S khc nhau
ch yu cch x l v cch tnh cc thnh phn ca cng thc nh H,, a v .., phn sau ta s i su
kho st tng thnh phn.

7.4. MA RO V PHNG PHP XC NH

7.4.1. Ma ro
Ma ro l loi ma c cng ln, tp trung trong thi gian ngn trn din tch khng ln lm.
Ma ro - ma dm c thi gian ma rt di, cng ma trung bnh tng i ln, din tch ma cng
kh rng, c lc cng rt ln, d gy ra nhng trn l nguy hi.

86

c im ca ma ro l cng ma thay i t ngt theo thi gian. Giai on u ca ma ro,

cng ma khng ln, phn nhiu lm t mt t v cy ci m khng sinh ra dng chy. Giai on
cui ca ma ro, cng ma cng khng ln, ch lm ko di thi gian rt nc l m khng tham gia
vo vic to nn nh l. Thi gian c cng ma ln so vi ton b trn ma khng di song c tc
dng quyt nh trong vic hnh thnh con l, lng ma trong thi gian ny thng chim 80 90% lng
ma ton trn.
Nh ta bit cng ma ro thay i theo thi gian, do tiu chun nh lng ma ro cng
khc nhau, tu theo thi gian ko di ma.

7.4.2. Cng thc trit gim cng ma

Cng ma l lng ma ri trong mt n v thi gian o bng mm/ph hoc mm/h. Trong tnh
ton thit k cn phn bit cng ma tc thi v cng ma trung bnh ln nht trong cc thi
khong khc nhau.
Nu gi HT l lng ma trong khong thi gian T th cng ma trung bnh trong khong thi
gian bng:
aT =

HT
T

(7.12)

(mm / ph; mm / h)

Cn cng ma tc thi l:
at = lim

t 0

H t
t

(7.13)

trong Ht l lng ma trong khong thi gian t.

a (mm/ph)
a max

at1

at2
at1

t1

Hnh 7.3. Qu trnh thay i cng

ma v cng trung bnh ln nht

t2
t
T1

Cng ma tc thi thay i lin tc trong sut qu trnh ma. Thi gian c cng ma ln c
tc dng quyt nh trong vic hnh thnh nh l, do ngi ta thng quan tm n cng ma trung
bnh ln nht trong thi khong T, n gin ta cn gi l cng ma trung bnh ln nht (aT), tr s
trung bnh ln nht nm bao nh ma (hnh7.3).
Cng ma thit k l ch cng ma trung bnh ln nht trong thi khong chy t ca lu
vc ng vi tn sut thit k (ap).
1. Cng thc trit gim cng ma
T hnh (7.3) ta thy cng ma trung bnh ln nht gim dn khi T tng ln, do quy lut trit
gim cng ma theo thi khong, ng cong biu din aT gim dn theo T gi l ng cong trit

87

gim ma. Quy lut ny ln u tin c E.I.Bcg v M.M. Prtiaknp kho st trn c s phn tch
cc bng ma t ghi ca phn lnh th thuc chu u Lin X. Cng thc u tin m t quy lut trit
gim cng ma theo thi khong c dng:
S
(7.14)
a =
Tn

trong :
n- ch s trit gim cng ma
S- sc ma, bng cng ma ln nht (khi T = 1).
Cc cng thc m t quy lut trit gim cng ma theo thi khong hin nay c rt nhiu, thng
c biu din di dng tng t nh (7.14)
aT =

(T + 1)n
aT =
aT =

hoc

aT =

S
C + Tn
S
1 + CT

(T + c)n

(7.15)1
(7.15)2
(7.15)3

Sc ma S v ch s trit gim n c xc nh ngc li t cng thc trn theo kt qu o c ca

my o ma t ghi. Th d nh cng thc (7.14):
lgSP = lgaTP+ nlgT

(7.16)

trong aTP l cng ma trung bnh ln nht ng vi tn sut P.

Da vo kt qu ngi ta tin hnh phn vng v s dng trong trng hp thiu ti liu. Trn c
s phn tch ti liu ma t ghi ca Lin X vi gi thit cng ma trung bnh ln nht tun theo quy
lut phn b Gurch, Vin thy vn Lin X cho rng sc ma l hm tuyn tnh ca lgN (N -thi k xut
hin li)
SP = A + BlgN.

(7.17)

Cc thng s A, B c tc gi phn vng sn s dng.

Cc cng thc trn n c coi l khng i theo T, thc ra iu kin ny khng ng. Qua phn tch
ti liu thc t ta thy quan h (7.16), im T0 gi l im chuyn tip. (Theo kt qu nghin cu ca Cc
Thy vn c B Thy li duyt cho s dng trong thit k cc cng trnh loi nh c din tch lu vc <
100km2).
Ngoi ra Vin thit k Giao thng ngh dng mt cng thc chung cho c min Bc, c hiu chnh
cho tng vng.
aTp =

10 + 12,5 lg N
K
(T + 12)0,66

trong :
K- h s hiu chnh K =

M
;
140

N- thi k xut hin li

T- tnh bng pht
M- lng ma ngy ln nht trung bnh
2. ng cong trit gim ma

88

) ca Alexyev.

(7.18)

Da vo ti liu ma t ghi ngi ta xy dng quan h gia lng ma ln nht thi khong HTP ca
lng ma ngy ln nht (ng vi tn sut p) qua hm () nh sau:
p ( ) =

H tp
H np

(7.19)

Sau khi xy dng c hm () ta d dng tnh c lng ma ln nht thi khong (ng vi tn
sut p) t ti liu ma ngy.
H t p = ( ).H n p
(7.20)
Cng ma trung bnh ln nht ca thi khong ng vi tn sut p c xc nh bng cch chia
tung () cho thi khong T
p( )
.H n p
T

(7.21)

at p = p( ).Hn p .

(7.22)

at p =

(T ) =

p ( )
T

ta c:

Suy ra:
p ( ) =

Quan h ( ) ~ T th hin s trit gim

a tp
H np

atp
H np

(7.23)

theo T. Ngi ta xy dng ng cong trit gim

( ) cho cc khu vc a l khc nhau v pht hin hai c im quan trng sau y:

Quan h ( ) ~ T ph thuc t vo tn sut P, c ni chng nhp vo nhau, nht l trong phm vi tn

sut nh.
Trong mt khu vc ln hnh dng p (T ) ~ T kh n nh. Do hai c im trn v cng ma
trung bnh ln nht thi khong at p d dng xc nh c t ti liu ma ngy (khi c quan h
p(T ) ~T, mt khc n khc phc c nhc im ca cng thc dng (7.14)(7.15) coi tr s trit gim n

khng i theo T nn hin nay ng cong trit gim ma Alecxyev ngy cng c ng dng rng ri
trong tnh ton thit k.
i vi cc tnh pha Bc, B mn Thy vn cng trnh trng i hc Thy li xy dng quan h

()~ T v ( ) ~ T trong quy phm tnh ton cc c trng thy vn thit k (B Thy li).
7.5. VN TN THT V CHY T
7.5.1.Tn tht

Lng tn tht ban u c xt trn nhiu quan im khc nhau, trong quy phm ca B Giao thng
(Lin X) thung xt ti lp nc ng trn thc vt, cn trong cng thc Xklpski lng tn tht ban
u c xt chung trong H0.
Lng tn tht nh hng ln nht ti s hnh thnh dng chy ln nht v c xt ti trong hu ht
cc cng thc l thm. Lng tn tht do thm thng c xt theo hai quan im sau:
Mt quan im xt c qu trnh thm nh Befanhi, Bnacp v Tsgap, lng nc cp c tnh
bng hiu s gia lng ma v lng thm.

89

Xt lng tn tht do thm theo quan im trn khng thng dng trong cc cng thc tnh Qmax, bi
v ng cong thm rt bin ng theo khng gian m vic trung bnh ho chng thng rt phc tp v
khng mang li kt qu mong mun.
Quan im th hai c s dng kh rng ri, tn tht c khu tr qua h s dng chy. Trong tnh
ton dng chy l thng dng hai khi nim h s dng chy l:
X,K (mm)

Hcn

ng cong lu tch
thm

Tcn
ng lu tch ma

Ki

Z
T
Hnh 7.4. S xc nh thi gian cp nc v lp cp nc theo
Tsegaiev

a) H s dng chy tng lng (cn gi l h s dng chy trn l). H s dng chy tng lng l t
s gia nc l (Y) v lp ma sinh ra trn l :
=

Y
.
H

(7.24)

c s dng i vi dng cng thc th tch ca Xklpxki. Nh phn tch s hnh thnh dng chy
ln nht l do lng cp nc trong thi gian chy t , do s dng h s dng chy trn l l khng
hp l. Nm1941, Xripni ngh s dng h s dng chy nh l.
b) H s dng chy nh l T. H s dng chy nh l l t s gia lp nc l ln nht trong thi
khong T(YT) vi lp ma ln nht trong thi khong (HT)
T =

YT
.
HT

(7.25)

H s dng chy nh l T thay i theo T, tr s T gim dn khi thi khong tng ln. Trong cc
cng thc tnh lu vc ln nht ngi ta thng chn T = thi gian chy t ca lu vc.
Y
=
.
(7.26)
H

S dng h s dng chy nh l tin li khi dn gii cc cng thc tnh ton Qmax.
Prtdiaknp v ngp c th ho h s dng chy nh l trn c s coi thm l tn tht chnh
trong dng chy l.
Vn tnh ton tn tht cc dng chy l r rng l rt phc tp, hin nay cha gii quyt c trit
m thng x l theo hai cch sau:
- Coi thm l tn tht chnh, ly cng thm chung cho c lu vc bng cng thm n nh ri
dng phng php thc nghim ti mt im xc nh.

90

- Dng ti liu thc o v ma ma, l c trong khu vc tin hnh phn tch tng hp a l xc
nh hoc a.
V l lun, cch th hai do xut pht t ti liu thc o tm ngc tr li, nn mt mc nht
nh n phn nh c cc yu t nh hng ti tng tn tht, hin nay c th coi y l mt phng
hng ng n. Nhng hn ch c bn ca phng php ny l khng m bo tnh i biu cho lu vc
nh, mt khc thng qua nhiu khu tnh ton d mc sai s, dn n kt qu khng ph hp vi thc t.
Cch th nht tuy c nhiu thiu st v l lun song n gin, kt qu th nghim t mc sai s do tnh ton
gy ra, ch cn iu kin th nghim tip cn vi tnh hnh thc t l c.

0,7
0,6
0,5
0,4
0,3
0,2
50

100

150

200

X(mm)

Hnh 7.5. H s dng chy n nh

Trong cc cng thc tnh l hin nay thng dng bng cng thm ca M. F. Sripni.
nc ta nhiu ngi tin hnh nghin cu cng thm bng phng php vng ng tm
hoc t ti liu ma ro dng chy v rt ra cc c trng thm cho cc loi t thng gp min Bc.
Ging nh cng thm, h s dng chy trn l ph thuc vo nhiu yu t khc nhau v bin bin
ng kh ln. mt lu vc trong cc yu t nh hng th m lu vc trc l v lng ma sinh l
ng vai tr quan trng.
H s dng chy tng dn khi lng ma tng ln v t ti tr s n nh ln nht (lc lu vc
bo ha nc) h s dng chy ch ph thuc vo iu kin a cht ca lu vc v c th dng lm h
s dng chy trn l thit k (H.7.5). Da vo ti liu ma, l thc o, ngi ta xy dng quan h ma ro
dng chy ca cc khu vc dng trong trng hp thiu ti liu. Quan h ma ro dng chy phn nh
c lng tn tht tng hp, quan h thng c dng cong, song phn c ma ln c coi l tuyn
tnh. Theo kt qu nghin cu ca Cc Thy vn min Bc Vit Nam c th phn lm tm phn khu quan
h ma ro dng chy.

7.5.2. Chy t v phng php xc nh thi gian chy t

Qu trnh tp trung nc t cc ni trn lu vc v mt ct ca ra gi l qu trnh chy t. Khi thuyt
chuyn ng ca sng l da trn c s dng chy khng n nh ra i, ngi ta cho rng thi gian chy
t khng phi l thi gian chuyn ng ca cht im nc m l thi gian truyn i ca u sng l (hin
nay hai nh ngha trn vn song song tn ti). Qu trnh chy t c th chia lm hai giai on: giai on
chy t trn sn dc v giai on chy t trn sng.
1. Tnh ton thi gian chy t trn sn dc
Gi s ta c mt ct sn dc nh hnh (7.6), sn dc l mt mt phng c dc v h s nhm
ng nht, nc chuyn ng trn sn dc thnh mt lp lin tc, lp cp nc phn b u theo thi

91

gian v khng gian, phng trnh lin tc ca dng chy sn dc c th vit:

q
h
+
= ai
x
t

(7.27)

h,q

trong :

hd

x- khong cch t ng chia nc n mt ct A

bt k trn sn dc
q- lu lng trung bnh ca mt n v chiu rng
sn dc
h- su mc nc

Ld

a1- cng cp nc trung bnh

Hnh 7.6

t- thi gian chy t t ng chia nc n mt ct

A.

B qua s hng qun tnh phng trnh vn ng vit thnh:

n

(7.28)

V = mJ d1 R n2

trong :
V- tc trung bnh ca cht im nc ti mt ct
R- bn knh thy lc (Rh)
Jd- dc trung bnh ca sn dc dng thay cho dc mt nc (v lp nc trn sn dc rt nh)
m- nhm trung bnh ca sn dc
n1, n2- cc s m.
Thay i cch vit (7.28) ta c:

q h
h
+
= a1
h x
t
Trn 1 n v chiu rng ca sn dc ta c lu lng:
q = Vh

(7.29)

(7.30)

q = mJ dn1 h1+ n2
Do :

h
= (1 + n 2 ) mJ
q

n1
d

h 1+ n 2 .

(7.31)

Dng phng php c trng gii phng trnh trn c:

dx
dt dh
.
= =
n1
(1 + n2 )mJ d hn2 1 a1

(7.32)

dx = (1 + n2 )mJ dn1 h n2 dt

(7.33)

Rt ra:

dh = a1dt
Tch phn (7.34) ta c:

92

(7.34)

h = a1t

(7.35)

Thay (7.35) vo (7.33):

dx = (1 + n2 )mJ dn1 (a, t ) n2 dt .

(7.36)

Ly tch phn
ld

ld

dx = (1+n
0

)mJ dn (a,t) n dt .
1

(7.37)

ta c:

Ld = madn2 J dn1 d1+ n2 .

(7.38)

Rt ra thi gian chy t ca sn dc:

Ld
n2 n1
ma1 J d

d =

1 + n2

(7.39)

Ld
d =
md a1m2 J dm1
trong :

m1 =
md

n1
n
1
l cc ch s lu tha;
; m2 = 2 ; m3 =
1 + n2
1 + n2
n2 + 1

=m

1
1+ n 2

- thng s tp trung nc ca sn dc.

Nu thay cc ch s ca cng thc (7.39) bng cc ch s trong cng thc Sdi - Maning ta c:
d =

L0d,6
md a10, 4 J d0,3

Trng hp cng cp nc thay i ta thay a1 bng cng cp nc bnh qun ln nht trong
khong d

d =

L0d, 6
.
md h0d, 4 J d0,3

(7.40)

Tnh d theo cng thc (7.40) trc tin phi xc nh hd m hd li ph thuc vo d do gp rt

nhiu kh khn.
Hin nay, tm d, ngi ta gii ng thi h hai phng trnh (7.40) v (7.21)

L0d, 6
d =
md h0d, 4 J d0,3 .

H = H
(d )
np
d
Thay (7.21) vo (7.40) ta c:

d =

L0d, 6
.
md (H np ) 0, 4 J d0,3 [ ( d )]0, 4

(7.41)

t:

d =

L0d,6
= d [ ( d )]0, 4
md (H np ) 0, 4 J d0,3

(7.42)

93

trong d gi l h s thy a mo sn dc
0, 4
Quan h d = d [ ( d )]
c xc nh trc theo ng cong trit gim ma ca tng

vng.Trong quy phm QP.TL. C6-77 chia min Bc nc ta thnh 9 vng ma xy dng gia d~d nn
thc t vic xc nh d rt n gin, ta ch vic xc nh d theo cc c trng lu vc v ma ngy (Ld,
md, Jd, Hnp), ri theo cng thc (7.42) ta s c d.
2. Tnh ton thi gian chy t trong sng
Tnh ton thi gian chy t trong sng c th quy kt thnh tnh tc chy t trong sng bi v:

s =

Ls
.
V

(7.43)

trong :
Ls- di sng chnh k t ngun n mt ct ca ra, V - tc chy t trong sng.
Tc chy t ca mt con sng c th xc nh c qua s liu thy vn. Khi nc sng dng cao
V cng tng, khi mc nc sng trn qua bi th mc tng V gim, mc gim nhiu hay t tu thuc
vo kch thc v nhm ca bi sng. Khi bi ngp kh su th mc tng V li tng ln. Qua s liu o
c thy vn v cc chng minh thy lc ngi ta thit lp c quan h:

= 0, 6 0, 7 Vm

(7.44)

trong Vm - tc trung bnh ln nht ti mt ct ca ra.

Tc chy t trong sng cng c th c xc nh trn c s cng thc S di
V =

1
J h
n

(7.45)

trong :
n- h s nhm lng sng
J- dc mt nc ly bng dc lng sng
h- su trung bnh dng chy

, - cc thng s.
Vic s dng su dng chy trong cng thc tnh V rt bt tin (do su dng chy bin ng
mnh theo dc sng) v vy trong cc cng thc tnh V ngi ta thay h bng Q da trn c s h v Q tn
ti quan h hm s, nh vy cng thc c dng:

V = mJ Qm .

(7.46)

Nh trnh by khi lu lng cha trn qua bi v trn qua bi quan h V v Q c thay i, song khi
tnh Qmax thit k thng tnh vi tn sut thit k nh, lc nc trn qua bi kh su nn quan h
trn vn hp l. Theo s kho st ca Alecxyev v trong quy phm Vit Nam u ly = 1/3; = 1/4,
nh vy ta c:
V = mJ 1 3Q1m4

s =

L
mJ

1/ 3

Q1m/ 4

trong :
m - thng s tp trung nc trong sng xc nh theo bng.

94

(7.47)
(7.48)

 - tc dng sng chnh tnh theo %.

3. Quan h gia thi gian chy t ca lu vc vi d v s
Qu trnh tp trung dng chy trn lu vc bao gm qu trnh tp trung dng chy trn sn dc v
qu trnh tp trung dng chy trong sng, do khi xy dng cng thc tnh lu lng ln nht, nhiu tc
gi cho rng:

=d +s .

(7.49)

Quan h (7.49) cng c c s nht nh, song trong thc t khng th phn bit rch ri qu trnh tp
trung dng chy trn sn dc v trong sng c, v vy vic tnh ring d v s ch cho n gin v
thun tin khi tnh ton.
Trong nhiu cng thc tnh lu lng ln nht ngi ta b qua d, ch tnh thi gian chy t trong sng
s, gi thit ny ch chp nhn c vi nhng lu vc c d rt b so vi s (lu vc va v ln).
Rstmp so snh gia nh l thc o v nh l tnh ton thy rng vic coi = d +s lm
gim nh v do gy nn nh l tnh ton tng mt cch ng k. cho kt qu tnh ton ph hp vi
thc t Rstmp ngh a ra cng thc tnh Qmax mt h s hiu chnh ( <1) gi l h s khng u
cng cp nc theo lu vc:

=f(F,h)
trong h l cng cp nc bnh qun ln nht ph thuc vo . Nhng vic xc nh h s hiu
chnh gp nhiu phc tp nn xu hng hin nay xc nh l thng qua quan h gia vi d v s
Srmechiep xut pht t cng thc l lun tnh m un lu lng nh l qmax= Ka =
K Q()Hnp da vo ti liu thc o lu lng v ma xc nh , ng thi cng da vo ti liu
thc o xy dng quan h qmax= f(F) ri kh qm t hai phng trnh trn c quan h gia vi F.
Ngoi hai cng thc ca Srmechiep s dng, Alecxyev cn dng thm quan h (7.48) xc nh quan
h gia v s v c h thc:

= Ks

(7.50)

trong nhiu cng thc tnh ton ly K = 1,2.

Cc nh bc hc X vit cho rng cng thc (7.50) ch ph hp vi lu vc ln v khng xt ti thi
gian tp trung dng chy trn sn dc. V vy trn c s so snh m un nh l tnh ton vi m un
nh l thc o, h a ra cng thc sau y:

= 1,2 1s ,1 + d .

(7.51)

Cng thc (7.51) cng c vn dng trong Qui phm Vit Nam QP.TL. C-6-77 tuy nhin trong thc
t nc ta n cha c kim nghim.

7.6. CC CNG THC TNH DNG CHY LN NHT

Cc cng thc tnh dng chy ln nht da trn cng thc c bn, hoc c th a v dng cng thc
c bn (7.9),(7.11) c gi l cng thc l lun. Cc cng thc ca cc tc gi khc nhau, ch yu
ng li gii quyt c th cc thnh phn trong : , a.
Hin nay nc ta, bn cnh cc cng thc ca nc ngoi c ng dng nh cc cng thc ca
Bnakp, Alecxyev, Xklpki (Lin X c), cng thc ca Vin nghin cu thy li Bc Kinh (Trung
Quc), mt s tc gi trong nc cng a ra cc cng thc tnh ton mi hoc da theo cng thc ca
nc ngoi nhng cc thng s xc nh theo ti liu trong nc nh: Vin thit k giao thng, Cc Thy
vn v trng i hc Thy li...Vic la chn cng thc, x l cc thng s trong nhng nm u hon
95

ton do ch quan ca ngi thit k. Nm 1974 trn c s tng hp cc s liu do c ca min Bc, Cc
Thy vn son tho cun "Hng dn tnh lu lng ln nht". Nm 1979 B Thy li cho xut bn
Quy phm tnh ton cc c trng thy vn thit k QP.TL-C-6-77 quy nh thng nht vic s dng cc
cng thc tnh dng chy ln nht.

7.6.1. Cng thc cng gii hn

Nm 1970, Alecxyev a ra cng thc cng gii hn, nm 1970, Quy phm QP.TL.C-6-77 s
dng cng thc cng gii hn tnh lu lng ln nht cho lu vc c din tch nh hn 100 km2 vi
cc thng s c xy dng trn c s ti liu ca nc ta, cng thc c dng:
Qmp = Ap Hnp F 1

(7.52)

trong :
Hnp - lng ma ngy ng vi tn sut thit k p (mm)

- h s dng chy l ly trong bng (7.1) ty thuc vo loi t cu to nn lu vc, lng ma

ngy thit k Hnp v din tch lu vc (F);
Ap - t s gia mun nh l ng vi tn xut thit k p vi Hnp. Khi = 1; Ap ly trong bng (7.4)
ty thuc vo c trng thy a mo ca lng sng s cng thc (7.42) v d thi gian chy t trn sn
dc (bng 7.3);

1 - h s gim nh nh l do ao h, xc nh theo cng thc:

1
1 =
1 + cf a

(7.53)

trong :
fa- T l din tch ao h %; C - h s ph thuc vo lp dng chy l, i vi cc vng ma l ko di
C = 0,10 trng hp thi gian ma l ngn C = 0.20.
Bng 7.1. H s dng chy

Loi

Loi t

Nha ng b tng

II

t st, t st nng

III

IV

VI

96

H s dng cho cc din tch F(km2)

Lng ma
ngy Hnp

<0,1

0,1- 1

1- 10

10- 100

>100

<150

0,95

0,85

0,80

0,80

0,80

150- 200

0,95

0,90

0,90

090

0,90

>200

0,95

0,95

0,95

0,90

0,90

t tht, t pdn, t tht mu

<150

0,85

0,80

0,75

0,65

0,65

xm trong rng, t vng m ly

150- 200

0,85

0,85

0,80

070

0,70

>200

0,90

0,90

0,80

0,75

0,75

t cacbnit, t i , t rng

<150

0,65

0,63

0,56

0,45

0,30

mu g, t si bi

150- 200

0,75

0,70

0,65

0,55

0,40

>200

0,80

0,75

0,70

0,65

0,50

t ct dnh, t ct c c mc

< 150

0,45

0,35

0,25

0,25

0,20

150- 200

0,55

0,45

0,40

0,35

0,30

>200

0,60

0,55

0,50

0,45

0,40

0,25

0,20

0,15

0,10

0,1

Ct th, t xp

Bng 7.2. Thng s tp trung nc trn sn dc md

H s md trong trng hp

Tnh hnh sn dc lu vc

C tha

- Sn dc bng phng (b tng, nha ng)

Trung bnh

C dy

0,5

- t ng bng loi ta ca (hay nt n) mt t san phng m

0,40

0,30

0,25

0,30

0,25

0,20

- Mt t b cy xi, nhiu gc bi, vng dn c c nh trn 20%

0,20
0,15
Bng 7.3. Thi gian chy t trn sn dc d (pht)

0,10

cht
- Mt t thu dn sch khng c gc cy, khng b cy xi, vng
dn c nh ca khng qu 20%, mt xp

Phn khu ma ro

0,5

5,0

6,0

4,0

6,0

4,0

6,0

6,0

4,

5,0

1,1

9,0

9,0

7,0

9,0

7,0

8,0

9,0

7,0

10,0

15,0

12,0

10,0

12,5

9,0

13,0

12,0

10,0

13,0

2,5

19,0

16,0

13,0

15,5

12,0

17,5

15,0

12,0

16,0

23,5

20,6

16,5

19,0

14,0

22,5

18,5

15,0

22,0

33,0

27,0

22,5

26,5

21,0

32,0

26,0

22,0

32

42,0

34,0

30,0

34,2

30,0

42,0

34,2

29,0

40,0

52,0

43,0

38,0

44,0

37.0

52,0

44,0

37,0

50,0

62,0

52,0

46,0

55,0

45,0

63,0

53,0

45,0

60

72,0

62,0

64,0

64,0

53,0

75,0

63,0

53,0

71,0

82,0

73,0

53,0

73,0

62,0

86,0

74,0

62,0

80,0

10

94,0

83,0

72,0

84,0

71,0

93,0

83,0

71,0

93,0

12

115,0

144,0

90,0

110,0

88,0

116,0

105,0

880,0

116,0

15

158,0

141,0

125,0

142,0

122,0

158,0

142,0

122,0

154,0

17

186,0

155,0

146,0

156,0

144,0

186,0

155,0

1440

180,0

d- - xc nh theo h s thy a mo ca sn dc d v vng ma (bng 7.3) trong :

(1000bc ) 0,6
md J d0,3 (H np ) 0, 4

d =

(7.54)

bc - di bnh qun ca sn dc lu vc
bc

F
1,8( L +

l)

(7.55)

hoc
bc

1
1,8

(7.56)

trong :
L + l - di sng chnh v cc sng nhnh trn lu vc (km); - mt li sng (km/mm2) md ly theo bng (7.2) Jd - dc sn dc tnh theo %.
s =

1000 L
mJ

1/ 3

F 1 / 4 (H np )1 / 4

(7.57)

97

m- ly theo bng (7.3); J - dc lng sng chnh, tnh theo %.

Bng 7.4. Thng s tp trung nc trong sng m

Tnh hnh lng sng t thng ngun n ca ra

H s m

- Sng ng bng n nh, lng sng kh sch, sui khng c nc thng xuyn, chy trong iu

11

kin tng i thun li.

- Sng ln trung bnh quanh co, b tc nghn lng sng mc c, c chy khng lng sui khng

c nc thng xuyn, ma l dng nc cun theo nhiu si cui, bn ct, lng sng mc c
- Sng vng ni, lng sng nhiu , mt nc khng phng, sui chy khng thng xuyn quanh

co, lng sng tc nghn

Cng thc cng gii hn mang cc cu trc ca cng thc c bn (7.11) xy dng trn l thuyt
cn nguyn dng chy da trn 3 gi thit c bn sau:
S hnh thnh dng chy ng nht trn ton lu vc (cng cp nc ng u), dng chy ln
nht xy ra trong trng hp dng chy hon ton Tcn > .
Tn sut hin lu lng ln nht ly bng tn sut ma.
Cc tham s a, tuy khng cho di dng tng minh, song c gii quyt bng th thut n
gin nh ng cong trit gim ma v cc tham s trung gian d s .. cc bng tra cu s dng thun
tin. Cng thc ny thch hp cho vic tnh ton dng chy ln nht i vi lu vc nh, khng yu cu
chnh xc cao.

7.6.2. Cng thc th tch

Nm 1943 Xklpski a ra cng thc tnh ton lu lng ln nht cho ti nay vn c ng dng
rng ri, cng thc c xy dng trn c s sau:
1. Cng thc ch xt cc yu t ch o nh hng ch yu n dng chy l trong phm vi chnh
xc thc dng v cc yu t c th xc nh mt cch d dng.
2. Coi tn sut ma l tn sut l.
3. Khng nhng xt lu lng nh l m phi xt c qu trnh l, lng l v thi gian l, thi gian
nc dng.
4. Tn tht c tnh bng h s dng chy tng lng
5. Theo ti liu thc nghim, c th n gin ho ng qu trnh nc l thnh hai ng cong
parabol gp nhau ti nh (H 7.7). Trn c s ta c phng trnh:
Qt

Nhnh nc ln:
t
Qt = Qm
tl

vi

Qm
t
tl

98

(7.58)

0 t tl
Nhnh nc xung
t t

Qt = Qm x

tx

Hnh 7.7. M hnh ho qu

trnh l parabol

vi 0 t tx

(7.59)

trong : tl, tx nh hnh v; m, n cc ch s lu tha ca nhnh ln, nhnh xung phn nh sai khc ca
ng cong m t v ng thng trong nh l Ta Lt p dng cho tam gic. Tng lng l bao gm din
tch nhnh nc ln v nhnh nc xung:
t
W = Qm
0
tl
t1

t
m
t
t
t
t
x

l + x .

x
dt + Q
dt = Q

m
m
t
m +1 n +1

0
x

(7.60)

t tx = tl (trong tx >tl >1) ta c :

1
+
W = Qm t l
.
m + 1 n + 1

hoc

W (m + 1)(n + 1)
Qm =
.
t (n + 1) + ( m + 1)
l

Cho

f =

(m + 1)(n + 1)
(n + 1) + (m + 1)

Ta c
Qm =

W
f
tl

(7.61)

f c gi l h s hnh dng l.
Thay: W = y.F = (HT- Ho) F vo (7.61) ta c:
Qm =

0,276 ( H T H 0 )
fF (m3 / s) ,
tl

trong :

- h s dng chy trn l;

Ht - lng ma thit k (mm) ca thi khong T (gi)
Ho- lp nc tn tht ban u
F- din tch lu vc (km2).
Nu xt ti trit gim nh l do h ao, m ly v rng () cng vi nh hng ca nc ngm (Qng)
ta c:
Qm =

0,278 ( H T H 0 )
fF + Qng ( m 3 / s)
tl

(7.62)

Vn dng trong iu kin nc ta, cc thng s ca cng thc (7.62) c xc nh nh sau:

f - h s hnh dng l xc nh theo s phn khu hoc ly theo lu vc tng t.
fa =

3600Qma tl
a
Wa

(7.63)

Qma, Wa, tl - cc c trng nh l, tng lng l, thi gian l ln ca lu vc tng t;

a

tl - thi gian l ln, theo Xklpxki ly bng thi gian chy t trong sng .
L
tl = t s =
(gi)
3,6V

(7.64)

L - chiu di sng chnh (km) (3,6 l h s i n v)

V = 0,7 Vm

(7.65)

99

Vm - tc trung bnh ln nht mt ct ca ra.

HT - lng ma thit k tnh theo thi gian chy t
HT = H = ().Hnp

(7.66)

xc nh theo cc phng php trnh by trn.

Quan h (HT ~ H0) th hin quan h ma ro dng chy.
Qng - lu lng nc trong sng trc khi c l, c th ly bng lu lng bnh qun nhiu nm i
vi lu vc ln, c th b qua i vi lu vc nh.

= 1. 2
1 = 1 - K1lg (1- fr)
vi K1 - ph thuc vo tnh cht rng, iu kin t ai thay i t 0,1 0,2 i vi vng rng Vin ng
(Lin X c) v 0,2 0,3 rng t tht; 0,3 0,4 rng t pha ct.
fr - t l rng

2 = 1- lg (1+ f0 + 0,2 fd)

(7.67)

vi f0, f - t l din tch ao h, m ly; p - h s thay i t 0,6 0,8.

Cng thc Xklpxki c din ton trn c s l lun cht ch r rng, xt c c tng lng l
v qu trnh l, xt n cc yu t nh hng iu tit ca lu vc qua cc h s trit gim, cc tham s
trong cng thc c th xc nh c nn n c ngha thc tin ln, nhng cng thc cng tn ti mt s
vn l coi ng qu trnh l ch l hai nhnh parabn ch ph hp vi nhng ngn l n, dng chy
khng hon ton (Tcn << )

7.6.3. Cng thc trit gim

Cng thc trit gim biu th quy lut gim dn ca mun nh l theo din tch:
qm =

A
Fn

(7.68)1

(7.68)2

hoc
qm =
qm =

( F + C) n
A

( F + C) n

+ D.

(7.68)3

y l loi cng thc kinh nghim, cc tham s c th xc nh t ti liu thc o v tng hp cho cc
khu vc, kt cu cng thc n gin nn c ng dng kh rng ri. Tham s A l m un lu lng ln
nht khi din tch bng 1km2 cng thc (7. 68)1 v cng thc (7.68)2, khi F 0, C = 1, A biu th
cng cp nc ln nht t sn dc vo li sng.
Quy lut trit gim mun lu lng nh l theo din tch c nhiu tc gi Nga Dbrgieech,
Targpxki... tm ra ngay t sau th k XIX, khi cng thc ch mang tnh cht thun tu kinh nghim.
Sau cch mng thng X Nga, Kotrerin phn tch s liu nh l ca 134 trm trn cc sng thuc phn
chu u Lin X v a ra phng php tng hp a l cc tham s v phn vng cc tham s A,D, n.
Trn c s l lun ng cong chy ng thi ta c th chng minh quy lut trit gim m un dng chy
ln nht theo din tch rng, gi s c qu trnh ma hiu qu vi thi gian cp nc Tcn = S thi khong
(H. 7.8). Trn ma ri u u trn ba lu vc sng c kch thc khc nhau k cnh nhau (H7.8), vi
F1 < F2 <F3. Tin hnh xy dng h thng ng chy ng thi, ta c cc din tch chy cng thi gian
100

ca c ba lu vc v ta cng c c thi gian chy t ca 3 lu vc 1 = 3o, 2 = Tcn = 5o; 3 = 7o. Ta

xt lu lng ln nht hnh thnh trn 3 lu vc (H 7.8).
Trng hp 1. 1 < Tcn, y l dng chy dng hon ton ta c:
Qmax1= h1. F1; qmax1 = h1
Ton b din tch lu vc v mt phn lng cp nc tham gia vo hnh thnh lu lng nh l.
Trong h1 l cng cp nc trung bnh ln nht trong khong 1
h,mm/pht
h3
h2

h4

h1

h5

f6

f5
f4

a)
f2

f7

f3

f3

f4

f3

f5
f2

f2

f1

f1

f1
b)
f5
2

f(km ))

f4

f2

f3

f5

f2

f3

f1

f4

f7

f2

f1

f6

f3
f1

2
Hnh 7.8

Trng hp 2. Lu vc 2: = Tcn,y vn l trng hp dng chy hon ton nhng lc h2 = h Tcn

nn ta c:
Qmax2 = hTcn.F2;

qmax2 = hTcn.

Ton b din tch lu vc v ton b lng cp nc hnh thnh dng chy ln nht.
Trng hp 3. Lu vc 3: > Tcn, y l trng hp dng chy khng hon ton,ta c:
Qmax3 = hTcn. FTcn; qmax3 = hTcn.

FTcn 3
F3

Ton b lng cp nc tham gia hnh thnh lu lng nh l, nhng ch c mt phn din tch tham
gia.
So snh mun nh l qmax ca c ba lu vc ta thy:
qmax1 = h1 = hTn. 1

vi

1 =

h 1
>1
hTcn

(7.69)1

101

qmax2 = hTcn
qmax3 = hTcn.
vi 3 =

FTcn
F

(7.69)2

= hTcn 3

(7.69)3

FTcn
< 1.
F

R rng l qmax1 > qmax2 > qmax3 th hin quy lut gim nh m un lu lng nh l khi din tch
tng.
Khi lu vc nh hn lu vc ti hn c thi gian chy t bng thi gian cp nc = Tcn th s trit
gim qmax do tnh gim ca cng ma trung bnh ln nht trong thi khong gy ra. T (7.69)1 ta thy
qmax s tng dn n gii hn l cng cp nc ln nht hmax khi 0
lim qmax = hmax

hmax gi l m un c bn ca dng chy ln nht tc l m un nh l ca mt lu vc v cng b F

0, chnh l A trong cng thc (7.68)1.
FTcn
F

Khi lu vc ln hn lu vc ti hn ( >Tcn) th s trit gim mun nh l do s trit gim t s

<1 gy nn, 3 cng nh th din tch cng ln, chnh lch nhau gia v Tcn cng ln.

Khi tng hp quan h qmax = f(F) t ti liu thc o nhiu tc gi nhn thy qmax tng ln khi din tch
lu vc gim; nhng ti mt din tch no th qmax khng tng na m nm ngang v ngi ta a thm
thng s c vo quy lut trit gim ng cho mi cp din tch.
qm

A
( F + c) n

iu hon ton ph thuc vo tnh cht ca ma, khi gim nh, h tng ln nhng ti mt gii
hn no cng cp nc tr nn n nh, h khng tng theo khi 0.
Nh ta bit A l mun c bn ca dng chy ln nht nn cng thc trn c th vit di dng
tng qut:

qm

( F + c) n

Khmax
( F + c) n

= Khmax

qmax = K a max

(7.70)

trong :
A - m un c bn ca dng chy ln nht (m3/s, km2);
hmax - cng cp nc ln nht (mm/ph,mm/h);
amax - cng ma ln nht

- h s dng chy l
K- h s i n v (K= 16,67 khi amax tnh bng mm/ph, K = 0,278 khi amax tnh bng mm/h).

- h s trit gim ca cng chy ln nht y:

1
( F + c) n

T cng thc (7.70) ta thy cng thc trit gim lu lng ln nht cng c dng cng thc c bn v
l mi lin h gia cng thc l lun v cng thc kinh nghim.
Ngy nay cng thc trit gim c kh nhiu, chng c coi l nhm ln nht trong cc cng thc
tnh ton lu lng ln nht, b ngoi chng c v rt khc nhau, nhng s khc bit gia chng tht ra l

102

 phng php xc nh cc tham s v vic xt thm cc yu t nh hng. Tt c cc cng thc loi ny

u c quy v dng chung nht nh sau:

q mp

= K

A
p ,
Fn

(7.71)

trong : qmp - m un nh l ng vi tn sut thit k (m3/s km2); K- h s i n v; A- mun c bn

ng vi tn sut gc no (theo quy phm QP.TL.C- 6-77) ly tn sut 10%; - h s xc nh s iu
tit ca lu vc (h, m ly, rng), p - h s chuyn tn sut (Bng 7.5).
Trong cng thc trit gim th thng s A ng vai tr quan trng, s khc nhau ng k nht trong
cc cng thc ny l vic xc nh thng s A. Vic tnh A bng cch ngoi suy quan h q = f(F) khi F 0
khng c tin cy cho lm v nh phn tch, trong phm vi din tch nh quy lut trit gim qmax khng
th hin r, do quan h q= f(F) kh phn tn, v vy ngi ta quan tm nhiu n phng php xc nh
thng s A.
Bng 7.5. H s chuyn tn sut p

Lu vc

H s p ng vi cc tn sut
20%

10%

5%

2%

1%

0,5%

Sng

0,851

1,162

1,353

1,539

1,666

Sng Thao

0,851

1,210

1,428

1,636

1,840

SngL, Gm, sngCu, sng Thng

0,810

1,210

1,428

1,636

1,840

Sng vng Qung Bnh, Qung Ninh

0,824

1,195

1,429

1,590

1,840

Sng M, sng C

0,838

1,171

1,391

1,590

1,750

Mt s tc gi cho rng A l mun c bn ca dng chy ln nht nn c th xc nh theo cng thc

(7.70):
A = K amax.
Thay amax bng cng ma trung bnh ln nht trong mt thi on c nh no , Xklpki
ngh thay amax bng cng ma trung bnh ln nht trong thi khong mt gi ta c:
A = K A60 .

(7.72)

R rng cch tnh A theo (7.72) ch ph hp khi thi gian chy t trn sn dc khong 60 pht, cn
thi gian chy t sn dc khc th tr s A tnh theo cng thc trn c th thin ln hoc thin nh.
Mt s tc gi thay mun c bn A bng mun nh l ca mt cp din tch c nh Fc no , din
tch c gi l din tch gc. Lin X din tch gc c chn l 200 km2, nc ta quy phm
QP.TL.C- 6-77 s dng din tch 100km2, do cng thc trong quy phm c dng:
n

100
Qmp = q100
p F
F

(7.73)

trong
Qmp - lu lng nh l ng vi tn sut thit k (m3/s)
q100- m un nh l ng vi tn sut 10% quy ton v din tch lu vc thng nht 100 km2 ly trn
bn q100 10% (l/skm2),
n- h s trit gim m un nh l theo bn phn khu.

p- theo bng (7.5).

Vic thay th A bng qFc c nhng u im sau:

103

Tham s qFc c xc nh khng phi da trn vic ngoi suy quan h q= f(F) nh tham s A m da
trn ti liu thc o, do ng tin cy hn, n t ph thuc vo ch s trit gim n, vic v bn ng
mc qFc c c s hn v ng tin cy.
Do tnh trit gim mun nh l lu vc nh khng th hin r rng nn trong quy phm quy nh
cng thc (7.73) ch s dng vi din tch ln hn 100km2.

7.7. GII PHNG TRNH VI PHN DNG CHY L

Vic thnh lp cc phng trnh vi phn th hin bn cht vt l ca dng chy chng ta bn n ti
chng 2. Trong phn ny th xt bi ton trong lng sng v gii bi ton vi dng chy l.

7.7.1. Gii phng trnh vi phn trong lng sng c s

Chng ta bit rng trong lng sng c s vi gi thit l lu vc b c dng n gin l hnh ch
nht (B = const) trn thc t gp cc khe sui nh, cc on u ngun. Lc phng trnh vi phn c
dng:
v

+
= q' (t) .
x t

(7.74)

Trong tnh ton thy vn, phc v trc tip cho cc mc ch nghin cu khc nhau ngi ta
thng gii phng trnh ny ri p dng cho cc iu kin khc nhau a v trng hp ng dng.
gii phng trnh ny ta dng phng php linh bin c trng a v mt h phng trnh tuyn
tnh dng:
dx dt
d
=
=
.
v
1
q' (t)

(7.75)

T y ta c:
dx = vdt

suy ra

x = vt+ C1

C1 = x - vt

(7.76)
t

d = q' (t) dt

q' (t)dt + C

C2 =

(7.77)

q' (t)dt .

Thy rng vo u thi k l thi im t = 0 th din tch thit din t c th coi l bng 0 trn ton
b din bin lng sng (tt nhin y ta loi tr i ngun cung cp nc do mch ngm). Nh vy c
ngha l t = 0 th = 0. Ta ly iu kin ny lm iu kin ban u.
V cng l lun tng t nu ly im u h to trng vi ng phn thy th vo bt k thi
im no chng na vi x = 0 th = 0. iu kin ny l iu kin bin ca bi ton.Vy iu kin ban
u v iu kin bin nh sau:
Khi

t=0

th

= 0,

x=0

th

= 0.

Vi iu kin ban u (hn ch thi gian) ta c:

x = vt + C1 ,
t=0
Khi

104

khi t = 0

= 0 do C2 = 0.

x = C1

q ' ( t ) dt .

(7.78)

T iu kin bin (hn ch khng gian) ta c:

Khi x = 0
C1

C1 = vt t = v

C2 = q' (t) dt.

Li gii chung c qui v mt hm c dng (C1C2) = 0.

Nh th c ngha l:

C2 =

C1

q' (t) dt .

(thay t = C1 v )

Mt khc ta c:
t

C2 =

q' (t)dt.
0

q' (t) dt =
0

C1

(7.79)
v

q' (t)dt
0

Ta c:
x vt

C1 =
C1
x
= t,
v
v

x
Gi = t x
v

C1

C
= tx t 1 = t tx .
v

Phng trnh c dng:

q ' ( t ) dt =

q ' ( t ) dt

= q' (t) dt
0

t tx

t tx

q' (t)dt
0

(7.80)

q' (t)dt.

t tx

y chnh l li gii cho phng trnh (7.74 v 7.75) trn.

7.7.2. Tm mdun v lu lng ln nht trn lu vc c s

phn trn, ta thy 2 phng trnh p dng gii phng trnh vi phn. Chng ta cn quan tm n
vic p dng cc phng trnh trong trng hp no? Li gii th nht (7.79) ta thy n b rng buc bi
iu kin hn ch khng gian cho nn ch p dng c trn mt khu vc lng sng X0 nht nh no k
t ngun. on di khong X0 din tch thit din t nht thit phi c xc nh theo cng thc (7.78).

105

 xc nh i lng X0 ta gii ng b 2 phng trnh (7.78), (7.80) kh . Du bng ca phng trnh

ch xy ra khi:
t

q' (t) dt =

tt x

tc l ch xy ra khi v ch khi t - tx = 0 hay t

q' (t)dt
0

X0
= 0 , X0 = v.t
v

(7.81)

X0 gi l qung ng chy truyn ca sng l.

Nh vy trn mt lu vc trong khi xt bt c mt on khng ch no m sng l cha t ti th
dng cng thc (7.78) cn phn lu vc X < X0 th p dng cng thc (7.80) cho mi thi gian vt qu
k chy truyn ca sng l.
D dng nhn thy rng tch phn (7.78) th hin tng nhp lu t sn dc trn trong mt n v
lng sng trong thi gian k t khi bt u to dng. Trn cc khu vc cha c sng l lu lng theo
chiu dc sng khng i cho nn mt mt lng sng tch c mt th tch:
t

.1 = q' (t )dt.
0

x
n t (c
v
ngha l t trc thi gian chy truyn sng l theo lng sng). i vi lng sng c di l L, ta c:
Tch phn (7.80) l tng nhp lu ca phn nhp lu sn q'(t) trong thi gian t t

tp =

L
v

(7.82)

Ta xt my trng hp sau:
1. tp > T0 - Dng dng chy chm (ngng tr)
t

= q' (t )dt
0

T0

max =

q' (t)dt = y

max .B

Q max = max .v = y m B .v
qmax =

Qmax
y .B.v ym .v
= m
=
F
L.B
L

Qmax =

2. tp < T0 - Dng dng chy nhanh (pht trin.)

q ' ( t ) dt .

ttx

Nh l lun trn ti trm khng ch ta c tx = tp.

q' (t )dt ,

t t p

vy:

106

ym
tp

(7.83)

max =

q' ( t) dt

tk t p

tk - thi im gii hn bt u xut hin gi tr cc i. Khi :

max = yt p .B
Qmax = max .v = yt p .B.V
qm =

yt

(7.84)

tp

Cc cng thc (7.83 v 7.84) dng tnh ton mun dng chy ln nht trn cc lu vc b.
q'(t)

q'(t)

y tp

ym

a)

b)

tk
tp
t

T0

T0

Hnh 7.9. M hnh dng chy cc i

a) tp < T0

b) tp > T0

7.7.3. Cng thc khi qut dng chy ln nht trn lu vc c s

Ta thy rng nu:
tp > T0

th

qm =

ym
tp

qm =

tp < T0 th

yt p
tp

T cng thc dng chy nhanh ta thy rng y khng th hin tng ton b dng chy m ch th
hin mt b phn no thu c trong khong thi gian tp. i vi vic xc nh ym; ytp th iu ta quan
tm hn c l kh nng thu c mt cch n gin nht ytp ch khng phi l tnh cht nhp lu v tin
hnh s phn b gin nhp lu t ta mc. thun tin ngi ta chia thnh hai pha ca gin sao
cho c th sao chp c chnh xc cc c trng ca n. Sau dng gin :
q'(t)/q'm
q(t)
10

Gin trit gim

1
2

t
t

10

/To

Hnh 7.10. S khi qut m un lu lng cc i

107

Kt qu ta thu c gin trit gim dng chy sn dc theo s phn b cc i (H.7.10). Nh vy

c th din ton ng cong trn di dng:
t
q' (t)
= 1
q' (m)
T0
t
=0
T0

T0

q' (t)
= 1;
q' (m)

t
= 1
T0

q' (t)
=0
q' (m)

c trng cho hnh dng ca ng cong.

Gii hn trn ca n = 1.

q ' ( t ) = q ' m 1

Vy:

T0

tp

ytp =

q ' ( t ) dt

tp

= q' m

Gin
gim m
theo max

1
2

T0

q' (t)dt = q'

t
yt p

K hiu

ym

H s lp dng chy hu hiu.

.
Do t ch c 2 cng thc (7.83, 7.84),
ta c:

ym

tp
1 1
T0 n
1+ n

ym
.
tp
tp

T
0

1,0

(7.86)

( n + 1)

i vi dng chy nhanh th = 1.

108

(7.85)

/To

yt p = y m

n
.
n +1

Hnh 7.11. Cc bin ca

gin ph thuc vo
ch s n

n=1

yt p

.T0 .

n 1

trit
un

qm =

) n dt

q(t )
qm

1 tp

q ' m t p 1
n + 1 T0

ym =

1 ( T

(7.87)

1,0

tp/T0

Hnh 7.12. Quan h = f (tp/T0)

tp
T0
tp
T0

=0

=0

=1

=1

Ch s n tng i n nh i vi mt lnh th rng ln. Vng tho nguyn ly n = 1, cn vi vng

rng n = 0,5.

7.7.4. Gii phng trnh vi phn cho h thng sng ngi

trnh phi tnh chi tit n cu to ca mng li sng ngi, chy nhanh chm v s tp trung
nc, ta s dng h thng ng ng mc chy truyn vi v=const cho ton b h thng lu vc. T
ta thu c mt li gii gn ng. Phng trnh nhp lu gn ng vit di dng vi phn s l:

v.
+
= q ' ( t ) n = nq ' ( t )
(7.88)
x
t
n - s lng dng chy trn mt n v di trm khng ch b ct.

n =

Bx
= Bx
2l

Bx rng ca lu vc theo ng ng mc chy truyn trong lng sng; l - di sn dc; mt mng li sng. Vy:
q'(t)n = n.q'(t) = .Bx.q'(t).

(7.89)

Vit phng trnh vi phn di dng (7.89) ta ch c th tnh c gi tr cc i ca lu lng. Ton b

ng qu trnh cn phi chuyn hm Bx v mt hm thi gian nh sau:
Bx
Bm

Bx

1,0

m=1
m<1
m>1

Bmax

1,0

x
L

Hnh 7.13. S chuyn phn b to khng gian

T y ta c:
x m

B x = B m 1 (
)
L

V v = const nn
x
= t,
v

L
= tp.
v

t
B x = B ( t ) = Bm 1 ( ) m .
t p

+
= B ( t ) q ' ( t ).
x
t

(7.90)

109

Ta gii phng trnh (7.90) bng phng php linh bin c trng:
dx dt
d
=
=
.
v
1
B(t) q' (t)

Vi cc iu kin ban u v iu kin bin nh sau:

Khi

x=0

=0

(ban u)

t=0

= 0.

(bin)

b. Vi

C1 = x

a. Khi t = 0

C2 = 0

x= 0

B(t )q' (t )dt.

(7.91)

t=

C1 = vt

t
C 2 = - B(t) q' (t) dt.
0

C1
v

Li gii chung c dng ( C 1 C 2 ) = 0 . c ngha l:

C1

C 2 =

B ( t ) q ' ( t )dt =

ttx

B ( t ) q ' ( t ) dt .
0

v mt khc ta c:
t

C 2 = B ( t ) q ' ( t )dt =
0

t tx

B ( t ) q ' ( t ) dt .
0

B ( t ) q ' ( t )dt

t tx

Trng hp 1.
i vi dng dng chy nhanh (pht trin) tp < T0
t

B(t)q' (t)dt

t tx

Qmax bt u t tk gii hn no ,
m =

tk

B(t)q' (t)dt

tk t p

m =

tk

B(t)q' (t)dt

tk t p
tk

tk

tp

= B(t)q' (t)dt B(t)q' (t)dt + B(t)q' (t)dt

tp

= B(t)q' (t)dt
0

Nu p dng cho lu vc c m hnh ho thnh hnh ch nht th:

tp

' m B tb

q ' ( t ) dt
0

Btb l rng trung bnh lu vc.

Gi

110

m
= K1
'm

H s a l thy vn th nht.

= B tb y t p .

(7.92)

 m = ' m k1 = k1 Btb . y t .
p

Qm = ' m v = k1 Btb . y t p .v
qm =

yt
Qm
= K1 p
Btb L
tp
qm = K 1

ytp
tp

(7.93)

Trong cng thc (7.93) nu lu vc c hnh ch nht th K1 = 1.

Cng thc ny vit cho trng hp dng nhp lu t sn dc khng trit gim theo din tch hoc l
n ch ng i vi nhng lu vc b, cho nn vi cc lu vc ln khng p dng c, m nu s dng
cn a vo cng thc h s din tch KF. Vy
yt p

qm =

tp

K1 . K F .

(7.94)

Trng hp 2: i vi trng hp dng chy chm (ngng tr) tp > T0

= B ( t ) q ' ( t ) dt .
0

m-

xut hin vo cui giai on nhp lu (t =

T0)
T

'm

= B(t) q' (t) dt.

m
0
T0

= B tb

q ' ( t ) dt . =

B ' tb . y m

m
= K '2 tng t nh K1 nhng p dng trong gii hn din tch hiu qu.
'm

Do vy

m = ' m .K 2' = K 2' Btb' . ym

Qm = m .v = K 2' Btb' . ym .v
qm =

Kb =

B' tb
1
Btb

Qm
B'
y
k
= K 2' . tb . y m . = m . K 2' .K b
Btb
Btb
L
tp

h s din tch hiu qu.

Do vy:

qm =

ym
.K 2
tp

(7.95)

trong :
K2 = K'2.Kb
K2 - h s a l thy vn th hai.

Nu tnh n s trit gim dng chy theo din tch th cn a thm KF vo cng thc:
qm =

ym
K 2 .K F
tp

(7.96)

Cc cng thc dng (7.94), (7.96) l nhng cng th do A.N. Befanhi thit lp.

111

7.7.5. Cng thc dng tng qut ca dng chy ln nht theo h thng lng sng
t
y
y

q ' ( t ) dt

tp

0
T
0
q ' ( t ) dt
0

= =

ytp = .ym
qm =

KT c th l K1, K2 ph thuc vo t s

tp

ym
K T.K F
tp

(7.97)

T0

7.7.6. Kho st h s a l thy vn

1. H s a l thy vn th nht
K1 =

m
=
'm

tp

tp

q ' ( t ) B ( t ) dt

B tb

tp

q ' ( t ) B ( t ) dt

tp

q ' ( t ) dt

B tb

q ' ( t ) dt
0

Xt t s:
n

t

q ' ( t ) = q ' m 1

T 0
n

t

B ( t ) = B m 1

T 0

tp

tp

q' ( t ) B ( t ) dt = q' m B ' m 1 Tt

0

tp

m


. 1 t dt
tp

n +1
n +1

tp
1
1 tp
1
q ' ( t ) B ( t ) dt = q ' m B ' m t p +
tp

n
n
m + n + 1 T0
1 + n T0
m + 1

tp
1
L

= q ' m B ' m t p 1
+
T
m
1
n
m
1
+
+
+
0

1 tp

n
+ 1 T 0

m
n
= q' m B ' m t p
+
m
1
(
n
m
1)( n + 1)
+
+
+

tp

T0

Xt mu s:
tp

tp

q ' ( t ) dt = q ' m

B tb =

Do vy:

112

q'm t p

1
tp

tp

T0

tp

B ( t ) dt =

1
n +1

dt

tp

T0

1
B'm
tp

0 1

tp

t
p

m
B'm
dt =
+1
m

(7.98)

 m
tp
n

q' m. B ' .t p

m + 1 m + n + 1(n + 1) T0
K1 =
n

tp m
1

1
.B' m

p

n + 1 T0 m + 1

tp
m +1 m
n

m m + 1 m + n + 1(n + 1) T0

=
n
1 tp

1
n + 1 T0

Khi

tp
T0

0 th K1

(7.99)

0 gii hn chn di. Gii hn chn di xy ra khi tp = T0 hay l

tp
T0

= 1 . Gi

tr K1 khi ph thuc vo m, n.
Nu m = 10; n = 0,33 th

K1 = 1,43.

2. H s a l thy vn th 2
T0

K2 =

m
.kb =
' m

T0

q' ( t ) B( t ) dt.B ' tb

.=

T0

B ' bt

q' ( t) dtB

q ' ( t ) B ( t ) dt

Xt t s:

= q 'm B 'm

= q'

B'

T0

T0

1 ( T
0

Btb q' ( t ) dt

tb

T0

q' (t ) B( t) dt

) n 1 ( ) m dt
tb

m +1
m +1
T m + n + 1
1 T0
1 T0
1

0
T
+

m 0 m +1 t m
n
n
m
n
1
+
+
1
+
T
T n t pm

p
0
0

= q ' m B ' m T0

1 T0
m +1 t p

T
1
T0 1 T0 +
( t 0 ) m T0
n +1
m + n +1 p

n
1 T0
n + 1 m +1 t p

= q ' m B ' m T0
= q' B '
m

n
T
0n +1

T
1
( t 0 )m
m + n +1 p

T
n
( 0 )m
( m + 1)( m + n + 1) t p

Mu s:

B tb = B ' m
T0

q ' ( t ) dt

q' .B .T
m

K2 =

m
m +1

= q ' m .T .

n
.
n + 1

n
n

. 0
n + 1 (m + 1)(n + m + 1) t
p

m
n
B' .
q' .T .
m m + 1. m 0 n + 1

113

( n + 1)( m + 1)
=
=

n
n

. 0
n + 1 ( m + 1)( n + m + 1) t p

m .n

T
m +1
n +1
.1
. 0
m
( m + 1)( n + m + 1) t p

K1, K2 l hm ca: K T = f t p , n , m

0
tp

T
0

T0
=1
tp

tp
T0

K2 =

m +1
m

y l gii hn trn
gii hn pha di ph thuc vo m, n.

= 1 , lc K1 = K2

KT

K1
K2

tp
To

Hnh 7.14. Quan h K = f (tp/T0)

Cc h s K1 v K2 l h s a l tng hp phn nh cc giai on ca dng chy trong lu vc sng

ngi (ln hoc b).

7.8. TNG LNG L V QU TRNH L

Khi tnh ton lng tr nc trong cc h cha, tnh ton thit k cng trnh tho l, phn l, giao
thng...khng nhng cn bit lu lng nh l m phi nghin cu c qu trnh nc l.
Nhng c trng c bn ca qu trnh l trong vic tnh ton lng tr ca kho nc l lu lng nh
l Q, tng lng l W v thi gian ko di l T.
Dng ng qu trnh l ph thuc vo rt nhiu yu t: lng ma l, cng ma l, thi gian v
s thay i theo thi gian v khng gian ca ma l, din tch, chiu di lu vc, dc lu vc, hnh dng
lu vc v mt li sng... nh hng tng hp ca cc yu t ny to nn dng ng qu trnh l
mang nhiu tnh cht ngu nhin. Do c quan im coi qu trnh l l ngu nhin.
Song i vi mt lu vc xc nh th nh hng ti dng ng qu trnh l ch yu l ma. Nhng
trn ma ging kt hp vi a hnh, nhng trn ma c cng ln nhng trong thi gian ngn thng
ch gy l lu vc nh. i vi lu vc nh, dc lng sng v dc lu vc ln, thi gian tp trung
nc nhanh, l ln xung nhanh. Ngc li, nhng lu vc sng ln phi c nhng trn ma ln, thi
gian ma di, ma trn din tch rng mi sinh l; ng qu trnh l thng ko di nhiu ngy, l ln

114

chm, xung chm. Nhng lu vc rt ln do sng chy qua nhiu khu vc kh hu khc nhau, qu trnh l
l t hp ca nhiu lu vc xut hin l nn thng c dng ln xung rt t t, l ca nhng lu vc sng
nh ch gy ra nhng gn sng trn nh l ln . Do vy i vi mt lu vc, xc nh dng ng qu
trnh ph thuc vo c tnh ca ma, vi nhng trn l ln (ta thng quan tm n nhng trn l ln),
nu cng ma tp trung v tm ma t thay i th ng qu trnh l ngy cng t thay i. Do ,
cng c quan im cho rng c th chn mt con l in hnh cho mt lu vc. Hai quan im trn u
c p dng xc nh ng qu trnh nc l.
Tu theo s lng nh l trong mt trn l c th phn thnh l mt nh hoc l nhiu nh.Tu theo
quan h gia TB v c th phn qu trnh l thnh l n v, l kp v l hn hp.
L n v c hnh thnh trong iu kin thi gian cp nc TB nh hn thi gian chy t rt nhiu:
Theo l thuyt ng chy cng thi gian, nu khng xt n s iu tit dng chy ca lng sng th thi
gian ko di l T s bng:
T = TB +

V TB rt nh so vi nn ta c th ly TB lm mt n v thi
khong. Ta c T = 1+ gn ng ta ly T . Ta hy hnh dung mt
lu vc c chia thnh nhiu ng chy cng thi gian (H. 7.15)
vi lng ma qu thm h ca mt n v thi gian, theo l thuyt
ng chy ng thi ta c:
Q1 = f1h
Q2 = f2h
..........
Qt = fth
...........
Q8 = f8.h

Hnh 7.15. S lu vc

(7.100) vi ng cong dng chy

Thi gian duy tr l T = bng 8
(8.1) ta rt ra:

ng thi

Qt

n v thi gian. T cng thc

=

f
h ft
= t
h F
F

(7.101)

trong : Q v hF biu th tng lng dng chy l. Phn tch nh vy ta thy qu trnh l do ma l
thi gian ngn (so vi ) c thi gian duy tr l gn nh nhau (T=) v tung tng i Q t ca ng

qu trnh l khng thay i. l c tnh c bn ca l n v. L n v c th xy ra lu vc nh ch

yu quyt nh bi quan h tng i gia thi gian cp nc TB v thi gian chy t .
Trong trng hp TB >> , lu lng trung bnh ca khong thi gian khng hnh thnh bi lng
ma qu thm ca tng thi khong vi ton b din tch chy t:
Q1 = h1F
Q2 = h2F
Q3 = h3F
..............

115

Qt =ht.F.

Qu trnh l hon ton ph thuc qu trnh ma, nhng trn ma ko di, nhiu nh s hnh thnh l
nhiu nh. Trng hp ny ta c th gi l l phc hp; khc qu trnh l n v, ng qu trnh l phc
hp c c im l thi gian ko di l bng thi gian cp nc T = TB v qu trnh l tng t qu trnh
ma song chm mt thi gian chy truyn .
Do khong thi gian ngng ma gia cc trn l di khc nhau, l phc hp c th l do cc l n v
v l hn hp hp thnh hoc cng c th nhp nh rng ca theo qu trnh ma. Cng nh l n v, qu
trnh l phc hp cng c th xy ra c lu vc ln ln lu vc nh, nhng i vi nhng lu vc ln th
qu trnh l phc hp ch xy ra khi ma sinh l ko di nhiu ngy m.
L xy ra trong trng hp khi = TB gi l l hn hp.
Qua phn tch trn y ta thy c im ca ma v lu vc nh hng rt ln n dng chy ln nht
v qu trnh dng chy, hai lu vc c lng ma v qu trnh ma ging nhau song do thi gian chy t
khc nhau nn xy ra nhng dng l khc nhau; khi chn cng thc tnh ton l (trng hp thiu ti liu)
cng nn da vo c im ny v nu l l phc hp, qu trnh l ph thuc cht ch vo qu trnh ma,
nh l hnh thnh ch do mt phn lng ma sinh ra m khng phi ton b lng ma, do vic p
dng cng thc th tch vi trn l khng hp l.

7.8.1. Tng lng l v phng php xc nh

Tng lng l l lng dng chy sinh ra trong mt trn l. Lng l l dng chy l trong mt thi
khong T no (k hiu WT) l din tch bao bi ng qu trnh l vi trc honh t thi im t1 n t2.
Khi tnh l ngi ta thng ly WT ln nht trong khong T (H.7.16)

WT

t
T
Hnh 7.16

Tu theo nhim v tnh ton thy vn ca i tng phc v m ngi ta c th tnh tng lng l
hoc lng l sinh ra trong cc thi khong 1, 3, 5, 7... 15, 30 ngy.
Do qu trnh l c th coi l hin tng ngu nhin nn lng l ca thi khong T no cng c th
coi l c trng khng ch ng qu trnh l. Ngoi ra, vic tnh ton tng lng l cn s dng tnh h
s dng chy trn l.
Tnh ton tng lng l hoc lng l cc thi on t ti liu lu lng thc o theo cng thc:

116

n 1
Q + Qi+1
W = i
ti+1
2
i=0

ti +1 = ti+ k ti

(7.102)

trong Qi - lu lng thi im th i; t0 ,tn - thi im bt u v kt thc trn l hoc bt u v kt

thc thi khong.
lu vc ln, qu trnh l ko di nhiu ngy, tnh tng lng l v lng l cc khong c th theo
bng lu lng bnh qun ngy:
n

W = 86400

(7.103)

i=0

0 v n- ngy bt u v kt thc trn l; Qi - lu lng bnh qun ngy.

tnh h s dng chy trn l v thu phng ng qu trnh l thnh ng qu trnh l thit k,
ngi ta thng phi ct nc ngm ri mi tnh tng lng sinh ra, sau khi thu phng xong mi cng
thm phn nc ngm. Song trong trng hp n gin th khi thu phng ng qu trnh l ngi ta
khng ct nc ngm.
Trong trng hp thiu ti liu thc o, ngi ta thng s dng quan h nh lng v quan h
lng l gia cc thi khong ca lu vc tng t. Ti nhng lu vc nh, kh nng iu tit ca lu vc
km, thi gian tp trung dng chy nhanh << TB, qu trnh l phn nh kh ng b vi qu trnh ma.
Khi din tch lu vc tng ln, kh nng iu tit ca lu vc tng ln lm cho ng qu trnh iu ha
hn, lc cc yu t mt m m ch yu l cc yu t c tc dng iu tit ca lu vc s ng vai tr
chnh lm cho dng ng qu trnh cc trn l khc nhau c xu th tng t nhau (xu th phn nh c
im ca lu vc), xu th tng t lm cho nh lng c quan h thng k nht nh. Qua phn tch hn
30 lu vc c din tch 100 km2 n 137400km2 min Bc nc ta cho thy s tng dn ca lng l WT
theo thi khong T ca tng trn l mt c s dao ng khc nhau. Song xt tr s bnh qun nhiu nm
WT hay ng vi mt tn sut no Wtp u th hin tnh quy lut r rng v cht ch. Quan h nh lng
v quan h lng l gia cc khong thng c dng parabn. Quan h lng l thi khong thng c
im gy T = 3 ngy (mt s t lu vc im gy ny khng r nt) nn ta c hai cng thc tnh tng
lng l cc thi khong nh sau:
WT = W1T m1

1 ngy < T 3 ngy

T
WT = W1 3
3
m1

trong : W1 - lng l mt ngy ln nht;

m2

T > 3 ngy

(7.104)

WT - lng l T ngy ln nht.

(Khi xy dng cng thc tc gi ly T ln nht l 30 ngy); m1,m2 thay i theo tng lu vc khng
thay i theo tn sut.

7. 8.2. Phng php xc nh qu trnh l

Tu theo mc ch s dng v tnh hnh ti liu, ngi ta a ra nhiu phng php xc nh qu trnh
l. Xc nh qu trnh l phc v cho d bo ngn hn th ng qu trnh l c xc nh phi gn vi l
thc xy ra.
Xc nh qu trnh l phc v cho thit k cc cng trnh th ng qu trnh l cn mang tnh cht
khi qut cao tho mn yu cu v thit k. ng qu trnh l c th xc nh trc tip t ti liu o lu
lng thc o nhng cng c th xc nh gin tip qua lng ma.

117

1. Phng php i biu theo mu

Phng php ny thng s dng tnh ton qu trnh l thit k trong trng hp chui o c
di, y l phng php linh hot nht dng cho c l mt nh ln nhiu nh. T chui qu trnh lu
lng l thc o, ta chn mt qu trnh l bt li nht i vi cng trnh gi l qu trnh l i biu, sau
sa li ng qu trnh cho nh hoc lng l ph hp vi tiu chun thit k.
2. Phng php m hnh hnh hc

Nhng sng va v nh sng l thng c dng mt nh cn i, qu trnh l thng c khi qut

bng mt m hnh hnh hc.
D.L Xklpxki kin ngh s ho qu trnh l mt nh theo phng trnh dng parabn:
- i vi mi ln:

Qt = Qm . tt

(7.105)

- i vi mi xung:

Qt = Qm . tx t

(7.106)

tx

trong : Qt - lu lng thi im t. i vi mi ln t k t lc bt u ln; i vi mi xung t k t nh

l;
Qm - lu lng nh l tnh theo cc cng thc cc mc trn

Thi gian l ln tl ly bng thi gian chy t ca nh l

L
=
(gi)
3,6v

(7.107)

v - tc chy t trung bnh ca nh l ly bng 0,7 vmax

vmax - lu tc trung bnh ca tuyn mt ct tnh ton, tng ng vi lu lng nh l Qm tnh c.

vmax cng c th tnh theo lu lng iu tra l.
tx = . tl

l t s tx/tl, m, n - ch s lu tha ca ng cong mi ln v mi xung, m,n, c th xc nh theo ti

liu thc o ca qu trnh mt con l n.Trong trng hp khng c ti liu lu lng thc o th m, n v
c xc nh t lu vc tng t.
G. A.Alecxyev dng ng cong Gurch m hnh ho qu trnh l n. Phng trnh tnh ton
qu trnh l c dng tng qut nh sau:

Qt = Qm 10
y x =

a ( 1 x ) 2

(7.108)

ti
- honh ca ng qu trnh l thit k tnh theo phn trm ca thi gian l ln tl; a - tham
tl

s c trng cho hnh dng ca qu trnh l, n ph thuc vo h s hnh dng qu trnh l f nh bng sau:
f
a

0,3
0,21

0,4
0,32

0,5
0,46

0,6
0,62

0,7
0,80

0,8
0,01

0,9
1,24

1,0
1,52

1,3
2,11

1,5
3,22

1,9
5,11

2,6
9,41

H s hnh dng l c tnh theo cng thc:

f =

118

Qm .tl
W

(7.109)

f c xc nh theo con l n thc o hoc ca lu vc tng t. chnh xc ca phng php ny ph

thuc ch yu vo mc chnh xc ca vic xc nh tl
3. Phng php cn nguyn dng chy

Phng php ny din t qu trnh hnh thnh l c to nn t tng cc lng ca dng chy thnh
phn hnh thnh trong cc phn din tch ca lu vc v chy qua mt ct o c cng thi gian.
Phng php ny c ngha rt thit thc i vi vic nhn thc s hnh thnh dng chy l, n c
th ng dng i vi cc lu vc ln v nh, cho c qu trnh l n cng nh l kp m phng php m
hnh ho ton hc khng th m t c.
Ti liu dng tnh ton qu trnh l theo phng php ny gm:
a) Qu trnh ma theo kt qu o ma t ghi
b) Bn lu vc c t l ln v c cc ng ng mc cao.
c) Nhng ti liu v tc chy t trn sn dc v li sng ca lu vc tnh ton hoc lu vc
tng t.
n gin ho vic tnh ton khi xc nh cc din tch chy cng thi gian, ta gi thit tc chy
t l hng s trong qu trnh hnh thnh ton b trn l nhng lu vc m dng chy mt chim u th
chy t trn sn dc nh hn chy tp trung trong sng, ngi ta v cc ng chy ng thi theo dng
chnh ln bn lu vc (trong trng hp cc dng ph ln ngi ta cng v cc ng chy ng thi c
theo ng ph) theo ti liu v tc chy t ca chng, khong cch gia cc ng chy ng thi l
l =

L
. Trong L l di dng chnh k t im xa nht ca lu vc n ca ra, n l s lng ng
n

chy ng thi (thng ly khong t 5 10).

Nh vy ta chia lu vc ra n +1 mnh din tch chy ng thi f1, f2,...fn+1 nn mi din tch c thi
gian chy t bng mt n v o
o =

n +1

L
k.v ( n + 1)

(7.110)

trong k - h s i n v; v= 0,7 vmax (vmax - tc ln nht mt ct ca ra).

Sau khi o c din tch cc mnh f1, f2,...fn+1 ta c hm phn phi din tch f = f() hoc cn gi l
ng cong chy t. Da vo kt qu o ma ca lu vc, khu tr tn tht ta c qu trnh ma hiu qu
biu th bng lng ma h1, h2... ca cc thi gian khong 0. Tn tht dng chy l thng thng c
tnh bng h s dng chy tng lng , nu khng c ti liu c th tnh theo lu vc tng t hoc bng
mt s phng php trnh by trn.
Hin nay do vic xy dng ng chy cng thi gian, s thay i lng tn tht trong qu trnh hnh
thnh dng chy l cha c nghin cu y , cha tm ra c phng php n gin v tin cy
xc nh din tch chy cng thi gian v xc nh qu trnh ma hiu qu, nn vic m rng ng dng
phng php cn nguyn dng chy xc nh qu trnh dng chy l trong thc t cn b nhiu hn ch.
Mt nhc im c bn ca phng php ny l khi lng tnh ton ln, nht l vi nhng con l c
ma di ngy. Tuy vy hin nay do c my tnh ln, nht l cc loi my chuyn dng cho d bo l v
tnh ton cho qu trnh l nn cc bi ton thy vn c gii quyt trong c trng hp lu vc thiu ti
liu thc o.
tnh qu trnh l t qu trnh ma, ngoi cc phng php trn cn c th p dng l thuyt v
ng lu lng n v. L thuyt ny do Sec- man a ra nm 1932 v hin nay vn c pht trin v

119

ng dng nhiu trong tnh ton v d bo. Ni dung ca phng php ng lu lng n v s c gii
thiu sau.

7.8.3. Thnh phn v s t hp nc l

Tnh cht l tng con sng ring r vn rt c lit, nhiu con sng hp li tnh cht l li cng hung
d hn, nht l trng hp l ln cc sng ng thi xut hin. S t hp nc l ca ba con sng ,
sng L, sng Thao thng l mi e do ln i vi ng bng sng Hng, c bit nguy him hn nu
n gp l ln ca sng Thi Bnh.Vic nghin cu y s t hp nc l l v cng cn thit i vi
cng tc phng chng l cho vng h lu. Trong giai on quy hoch lu vc, la chn phng n b tr
cng trnh c li nht cho chng lt thng phi tm hiu vic t hp nc l.
1. T hp lng nc l

T hp lng nc l l mt trong nhng i tng nghin cu chnh ca t hp nc l. Khi thit k

xy dng cc cng trnh trn sng nhnh phi xc nh lng nc l ca cc thnh phn v lng l t
hp. Lng l t hp ch l lng l ca sng chnh, lng l thnh phn l ch lng l ca sng chnh.
Gi s x1, x2... xn l lng l thnh phn ca cc sng nhnh, Z l lng l t hp, trng hp nhp khu
gia khng ng k ta c:
Z = x1 +x2+... +xn.

V x1, x2..., xn c coi l i lng ngu nhin nn Z cng l i lng ngu nhin, do cng mt
gi tr Z c th xy ra nhiu t hp khc nhau ca cc gi tr x1, x2, xn, iu dn n vic xc nh lng
l t hp cho thit k gp nhiu kh khn. Xu th hin nay xt t hp lng nc l ca cc sng chnh v
sng nhnh l thng k cc trng hp bnh qun, in hnh v tng ng.
Trng hp bnh qun l xt trung bnh trong nhiu nm, n cho ta thy mc ng gp trung bnh
ca cc sng nhnh vo sng chnh, n phn nh quy lut n nh ca lng l thnh phn v lng l t
hp. Song n khng xt c nhng trng hp bt li m khi thit k cc cng trnh ta phi xt ti.
Th d theo ti liu tng lng l ng b vi l ln nht Sn Ty xt s ng gp lng l ca
sng i vi lng l sng Hng (Sn Ty) ta thy sng ng gp lng l ng k vo lng l sng
Hng (khong 49,3%), sng L, sng Thao c t l ng gp xp x nhau. (Sng L chim 21% (cha k
sng Chy) sng Thao chim 20,5%) .
Trng hp in hnh l ly nhng trn l thc t xy ra trn lu vc tnh t l ng gp lng l
ca cc nhnh vo lng l sng chnh, n phn nh mt cch t nhin nht mt t hp l c. Nh vy
t kt qu thc o ta c th chn ra rt nhiu t hp in hnh.
Do khi thit k cc cng trnh ngi ta thng chn nhng in hnh bt li tc l l ln xy ra
cc lu vc sng ln m tuyn cng trnh khng khng ch c.
Th d trn lu vc sng Hng khi lng l 7 ngy, 15 ngy ln nht Sn Ty xp x nhau, nu ta
chn m hnh ph hp l in hnh l nm 1945 th lng l xy ra trn sng chim t l ln ti 50,9 54,8%, nu ta chn m hnh l nm 1971 th lng l xy ra trn sng L li chim t l ln hn so vi
nm 1945.
Trng hp tng ng: trong thit k cc cng trnh thng xy ra trng hp m bo nhim v
chng l cho vng h lu vi tn sut nht nh, ngi ta xy dng cng trnh trn mt sng nhnh ln
thng lu c tn sut thit k nc l tng ng vi vng h lu, lc phi xc nh lng l thnh
phn ca cc sng nhnh khc.

120

Bng 7.6. T l ng gp lng l ca cc sng cho sng Hng (trung bnh 57 nm)

T l ng gp

Lng l
=

W
WST

W7 ngy

W15 ngy

W30 ngy

Sng, trm
(Ha Bnh)
Thao (Yn Bi)
L (Tuyn Quang)
Khu gia

49,6%
20,5
22,0
7.9

49,3
20,8
20,8
9,1

49,1
20,3
20,2
10,4

Bng 7.7. T hp l theo in hnh trn lu vc sng Hng

W(109 m3)
% so vi
Sn Ty

Lng l 7 ngy
Sn
Ty

Ha
Bnh

in hnh l nm 1945

17,01

9 ,32
54 ,8

in hnh l nm 1971

17,0

6 ,59
38 ,8

Lng l 15 ngy

Yn
Bi
3 , 42
20 ,1
4 ,37
25 ,8

Tuyn
Quang

Sn
Ty

Ha
Bnh

Yn
Bi

Tuyn
Quang

3,34
20 , 2

31 , 09

15 ,97
50 ,9

6 , 46
20 ,8

7 , 02
22 ,5

4 ,93
29 , 0

31 , 78

12 ,9
40 , 6

7 , 43
23 , 4

7 , 79
24 ,5

2. S gp g ca lu lng nh l

Khi sng l vn ng trong sng thng xy ra trng hp bin dng lm cho nh l gim nh, cng
vi hin tng giao thoa sng l ni hp lu v nh l ca cc sng nhnh khng xut hin ng b, nn
ta khng th dng phng php cng tr nh lng l nghin cu s t hp.
Lu lng nh l ca sng chnh v cc sng nhnh v s gp g ca chng khng nhng ch ph
thuc vo cc tnh cht ca ma (cng ma, hng i ca ma, s thay i phn phi v thi gian v
khng gian ca ma) trn lu vc m cn ph thuc vo a hnh v hnh dng ca lu vc.
Nu a hnh ca lu vc t ct x, lng ma phn b u, mng li sng hnh cnh cy chy di th
s tp trung lu lng nh l ca cc sng nhnh v h lu s khng ng b, s ln gp g lu lng
nh l cc sng s t. Ngc li, nu cc sng c dng hnh nan qut th s tp trung lu lng nh l
gia cc sng nhnh s ng u. Nu a hnh ct x mnh s phn b ma s khng ng u tc tp
trung nc gia cc sng cng khc nhau, s gp g lu lng nh l gia cc sng xy ra t. Nh thng
ngun sng , mi tng quan lu lng nh l gia cc lu vc Nm Chin, Nm M, Nm P, Sui
Sp rt km, h s tng quan ton phn ca lu lng nh l gia 4 lu vc khong 0,5, h s tng
quan lu lng nh l gia lu vc Nm Chin, Sui Sp ch t 0,45. Ngc li sng L c dng hnh
nan qut trn nn a hnh t b ct x, ma tng i u, l ln hng nm cc nhnh sng thng xut
hin ng b, h s tng quan ca lu lng nh l gia cc trm Tuyn Quang, Chim Ho t ti 0,96;
Tuyn Quang, Hm Yn t ti 0,94.
S gp g gia l ln nht ca cc con sng v sng ln rt phc tp v tnh a dng ca cc kh hu
v mt m m cc sng ln ra, cc khu vc kh hu v mt m nu khc xa nhau th s xut hin
ng b gia l ln ca cc nhnh sng li cng t; nhng lu vc ln nh sng Cu Long dng ng qu
trnh l thng ln xung t t, sau xut hin l ln nht ca cc sng nhnh thng ch gy nn nhng
nh sng nhp nh trn nn ca con l ln. Theo ti liu thng k 57 nm (t 1912 - 1945 v 1956 - 1978)
s gp nhau ca con l ln nht hng nm trn ba sng nhnh v sng Hng nh bng 7.8
Qua bng thng k ta thy s ln gp g l ln nht ca sng v l ln nht ca sng Hng l
nhiu nht (chim 64,9%). Trong ring l ln nht ca sng gp l ln nht ca sng Hng l 26,3%,

121

cn li l cng gp vi l ln nht ca cc sng khc. S ln gp g gia l ln nht ca c ba sng vi l

ln nht ca sng Hng rt nh ch chim 12,3%. S ln gp g gia l ln nht ca 2 sng vi l ln nht
ca sng Hng chim 31,8% trong ch yu l sng + sng L, sng + sng Thao.
Bng 7.8. L ln nht ca cc sng gp nhau khi l sng Hng (ti Sn Ty) l l ln nht

S ln gp g %
Sng
Sng Thao
Sng L
Sng + Thao + L
Tng cng

Sng
Ha Bnh
15 *
26,3
5
8,8
10
17,5
7
12,3
37
64,9

Sng Thao Yn
Bi
5
8,8
9
15,8
3
5,5
7
12,3
24
42,1

Sng L
Tuyn Quang
10
17,5
3
5,5
3
5,5
7
12,3
23
40,1

Khng
do sng no

5
8,8

*Ring l ln nht ca tng sng gp l ln nht ca sng Hng

3. T hp ngun gc nc l

Trng hp lng l trong cc sng nhnh tng ng nhau, cc t hp lng l nh trnh by

trn khng cho thy lng l sinh ra trn lu vc ni no mnh, ni no yu. Lu vc sng L tnh n
Tuyn Quang ch chim din tch bng 3/5 din tch lu vc sng Thao tnh n Yn Bi, nhng ng gp
lng l cho sng Hng ln hn. V vy mun bit lng l ni no mnh hn, ni no yu hn ta phi so
snh vi din tch ca chng. Trn c s so snh t s lng l thnh phn ca tng nhnh sng vi lng
l t hp ln hay nh hn t s din tch ca nhnh sng so vi ton b lu vc m kt lun rng ngun
gc nc l ni mnh hay yu.

7.8.4. Ma l Vit Nam

Thi gian xut hin ma l:

S xut hin ma l, ma cn trn sng, sui nc ta c s phn ho r rt trong khng gian. Trong
ton lnh th c th chia ra cc vng c thi gian xut hin ma l khc nhau nh sau:
- Khu ng Bc v Ty Bc Bc B c ma l xut hin v kt thc sm nht so vi cc vng khc
trong c nc, ko di t thng VI n thng IX. L xut hin sau ma ma mt thng v kt thc cng vi
ma ma. Ring vng Ty Bc kt thc mun hn ma ma mt thng. Ma l cc sng sui nh thng
xut hin ngay sau khi c ma. L bt u v kt thc vng ny c lin quan n s hot ng sm ca
gi ma Ty Nam v cc hot ng thi tit nh bo v p thp nhit i.
- Cc khu cn li Bc B, bao gm lu vc sng , sng Thao, sng Chy, ng bng sng Hng,
h lu sng Thi Bnh v sng M c ma l bt u vo thng VI nhng kt thc vo thng X. S d ma
l vng ny kt thc mun hn l do ma ma y ko di n thng X, do hot ng mun ca gi ma
ng Nam v s hot ng ca bo v p thp nhit i dch dn v pha Nam.
- Khu vc t Thanh Ho n Ngh An bao gm lu vc sng Chu v sng C, ma l bt u t thng
VII, VIII n thng XI. Ti y ma l bt u mun hn ma ma chng hai ba thng, c xut hin l tiu
mn vo thng V n thng VII v dng phn phi l trong nm c hai nh. Sau thi k l tiu mn nc

122

trong sng gim khong t 1 - 1,5 thng v bt u ma l chnh do s hot ng ca bo v p thp nhit
i front cc.
- Khu vc H Tnh n o Hi Vn c ma l t thng IX n thng XII. Ma ma v ma l trng
nhau do cc sng ngn v dc.
- Khu vc Nam o Hi Vn n Bnh Thun c ma l t thng X n thng XII. Ma l xut hin
sau ma ma chng mt thng.
- Ty Nguyn ma ma bt u t thng V nhng ti thng VII hoc thng VIII mi xut hin l v
ko di ti thng XI hay thng XII.
- Nam Ty Nguyn v Ninh Thun c ma l t thng VII n thng XI. Ma l bt u chm hn
ma ma hai thng v kt thc chm hn mt thng.
- Ma l ng bng sng Cu Long t thng VII n thng XI hoc u thng XII.
Dng chy trong ma l

Dng chy ma l trn cc sng ngi Vit Nam chim t 60-90% tng lng dng chy nm. Nguyn
nhn chnh l do tnh phn phi ma khng u trong nm, ngoi ra cn do a hnh iu tit lu vc ca
cc sng sui trn lnh th.
Ti khu vc Nam Ngh An v Bc Qung Bnh dng chy ma l ch chim 50-60% lng dng chy
nm l do mt phn dng chy tp trung vo 1-2 thng l tiu mn.
Trong khi Ty Nguyn v ng Nam B lng nc ma l chim ti 90% tng lng dng
chy nm.
Ni chung lu vc sng cng nh th tnh iu tit ca lu vc cng km v s phn b dng chy
trong nm cng km iu ha.
Gi tr m un dng chy trn cc sng sui nc ta bin i t 25 - 250 l/skm2. Gi tr m un dng
chy l cao nht quan st thy ti Bc o Hi Vn (>200 l/skm2), thp nht ti Nam Ninh Thun (25
l/skm2).
Thi gian dng chy ba thng ln nht cng khng ng u ti cc vng trong nc, n ph thuc
vo tc tp trung ma trong nm.
Thi gian dng chy ba thng lin tc ln nht t sng M tr ra l t thng VI n thng VIII, sng
Chu v sng C VIII-X; H Tnh n Bc o Hi Vn IX-XI; Nam o Hi Vn n Ninh Thun X-XII;
Trung Ty Nguyn IX-XI v Nam Ty Nguyn VIII - X. Lng dng chy trung bnh ba thng, thng
chim ti 50-70% lng dng chy ton nm. Cc lu vc ng Trng Sn c dc ln, dng chy ba
thng chim 60-70%, cn cc lu vc c che ph tt, dng chy ba thng ln nht c khi ch chim 4050% dng chy nm.
Ti nguyn nc vi dng chy ln nht

Nc ch c xem l ti nguyn khi con ngi c th s dng. Ti nguyn nc tn ti hai hnh thc:
hnh thc li dng nc m khng gy tn tht v hnh thc tiu th nc. Nhng lnh vc li dng nc
bao gm thy in, giao thng thy, thy sn, du lch ngh ngi..., nhng lnh vc tiu th nc - nng lm
nghip, chn nui, dn sinh...
Nhng lnh vc ny i hi s lng nc, ch nc v cht lng nc khc nhau v i khi cn
mu thun vi nhau. i vi cc cng trnh li dng nc, nc trong ma ma c th m bo hot ng
ht cng sut ca cng trnh, nu nh dung tch iu tit ng. i vi cc quy hoch kinh t tiu th nc,

123

ngc li trong ma ma, c bit vng i ni, dng chy trn mt hay dng chy l gy ra nhng tc
hi i vi nng - lm nghip nh xi mn, ra tri, ngp ng.
1. Nc ta vn l nc nng nghip vi truyn thng lm la nc. Ngh la rt kn chn t ai. V
vy hu nh ton b dn s nc ta tp trung vo di ng bng ven bin trong chim tuyt i b phn
nn kinh t.
ng v mt kh hu sinh vt, hai ng bng ln nht nc ta l ng bng Nam B v ng bng
Bc B thuc hai kiu khc nhau, l kiu na rng l i vi ng bng Bc B v rng l i vi ng
bng Nam B. Vo ma ma, vn ni bt v nc l ng lt. Bin php duy nht hin nay l iu tit
bng nhiu hnh thc cc vng i ni pha trn. Bin php hu hiu nht m ta v ang tin hnh l
xy dng h cha Thc B v p Thy in Sng .
Nh chng ta bit ngha iu tit l cng trnh cng ln nu nh h nc cch xa ng bng.
Song ngha v thy nng s gim i. V thun li y i vi iu tit l, vai tr ca h Tnglsap i vi
ng bng sng Cu Long c ngha cc k to ln, mc d th vn iu tit l sng M Kng vn
cn nhiu mt phc tp. Mt u th ln ca Tnglsap l gim cng sut l mt cch ng k; c
im ny cng khng phi thuc tnh ca ring cng trnh m cn do vai tr ca ma bo trong hnh thnh
l gim i ng k. Ngc li, theo tnh ton vi dung tch 9 t m3 nc, h nc sng ch gi c 1/8
khi lng nc ma ca sng Hng v ng bng (khi lng nc ca l ton b lu vc sng Hng ti
Sn Ty l 72,9 t m3 nc). Thm vo , nc l ca lu vc sng Hng trong phm vi nc mt phn
do bo v xoy thun nhit i pht trin trn din rng. Vo ma l hin tng ngp ng ca ng bng
Bc B khng phi ch do l thng ngun m bao gm nhiu nguyn nhn kt hp.
Theo s liu phn tch ma do bo ca Phan Tt c, bnh qun nhiu nm lng nc do bo v
xoy thun (theo tc gi ma km vi gi mnh c tc 20m/s) ng bng Bc B chim 10 - 20 %.
Vn l ch, lng ma khng xy ra hng nm m tp trung vo mt s nm, trong nhng nm y,
tnh gin on theo thi gian ca lng ma nm cng cao v s tp trung theo cng cng ln. Vo
nhng nm y c th xy ra hn ngay trong ma ma ( y l hn i vi la nc, cy c canh ca
ng bng Bc B). Nhng lng ma nh vy thng xy ra ng thi cng vi l trong sng t thng
ngun. Yu t th ba cng gp phn gy ngp ng khng km quan trng chnh l hin tng nc dng
trong bo v xoy thun.
Hin tng nc dng bin lm cho vic tiu nc tr nn kh khn. Khc vi ng bng sng
Cu Long ni ring v ng bng Nam B ni chung, ba yu t gy ngp ng u lin quan ti bo v
xoy thun l nhng hin tng c tnh cht bt ng, kh d bo trc. Trong cc hin tng thin nhin,
bin ng nht l nhng hin tng kh tng thy vn m cc qu trnh kh tng thy vn trong vng
nhit i gi ma mang trong mnh mt nng lng tim tng di dng nhit m ln v bin ng mnh
m km theo cc oan. Hnh thi cc oan trong ma l chnh l ngp ng.
Trong qu trnh tin ti hon ton iu khin cc hin tng ny, trc mt cn tp trung tm hiu v
l trn c s nm c hin tng ngp ng, thi gian, cng sut v tn sut lp li c nhng
phng n s dng t ai trnh nhng thi k nguy him.
2. Nhng vn v nc trong qu trnh ma vng ni t ra phc tp hn. Trc ht xut pht t
c im a hnh min i ni nc ta l tnh cht phn bc ca a hnh. Cc sng ln u thch ng vi
cc cu trc lm c v mt h thng cc ni nh pht trin trn cc sn dc, tng phn vi s tha tht
ca cc li tiu nc trn cc mt bng, c bit vng cao nguyn vi v cao nguyn bazan, ni m
tim nng khai thc nng lm nghip cn ln.

124

Hn na, lnh th i ni nc ta rt khng ng nht v mt sinh kh hu, bao gm t rng kn

thng xanh ma m nhit i, ni cao, rng kn thng xanh ma m nhit i na rng l v rng l vi
s khc bit r rt v cu trc cn cn nc nh nu cc phn trn. Hai c im nu trn cn b phc
tp ho bi s khc nhau v ch ma, ch ma ma h gn lin vi gi ma v ch ma ma thu
gn lin vi bo v mt ch chuyn tip cc vng ni cao n gi nhiu hng.
Nhng c im nu trn to ra nhng mu thun trong s dng nc vo ma ma. Cc cng
trnh li dng nc thng phn b ni t dc, chia ct, i nc nm thp trong khi cc i tng tiu
th nc nm trn cao, sng sui tha, ngun nc khng n nh, nc trn mt tu thuc nhiu vo ch
ma.
Thm vo , hu ht cc cao nguyn t ph nhiu u tri qua nhng giai on canh tc nng ry,
thc vt thng cc din th thoi ho, do cu trc cn cn nc b ph hu cc mc khc nhau.
tch v gi nc gim i. phc v nng nghip, pht huy tim nng t ai y vn gi nc,
gi mu l bin php hng u. Mc d nhn dn ta vn c truyn thng lm la nc ng bng, nhng
kinh nghim khai thc cc vng i ni, lm nng nghip c ti v c bit l kinh nghim trng cc cy
cng nghip cn ht sc hn ch.
Cc vng i ni nc ta mi ch c khai thc mnh m t nhng nm 1950 tr li y m ch yu
l mu. Mt trong nhng kh khn hin nay chnh l khu chuyn t mt nn sn xut t nng lm ry
thnh nn sn xut chuyn canh cc cy trng qu, n nh vi mt k thut canh tc m, gi mu mt cch
khoa hc v hin i.
Vic lm ny cn phi c thc nghim theo cc quy trnh nghim tc ng vi iu kin t nhin a
dng, c bit l vn kh hu sinh vt. Vn cp bch l phi nhanh chng thc nghim o c bc tot
hi trong cc iu kin t nhin a dng- c bit l iu kin kh hu sinh vt. Nh chuyn vin Lin hp
quc Kostewaram nhn nh: ni ti s dng tim nng nhit m vng nhit i gi ma tc l cp
ti nhn thc v qu trnh bc tot hi.
Nghin cu qu trnh bc tot hi trn quan im h thng: t, nc, cy trng v mi quan h ca
chng theo phng thng ng v nm ngang chnh l c s quy hoch cy trng nng sut cao n nh,
chn ng hin tng xi mn, ra tri. Cn tn ti mu thun cn lu na l: do s tch ri gia cc i
tng li dng v tiu th nc trong khng gian nn quy hoch pht trin kinh t x hi thng nht v
hon chnh khng th khng gia tng cc chi ph vo giao thng v truyn ti nng lng.
Vng i ni nc ta phong ph v nc, c bit vo ma ma, ngun li thy nng to ln. Song c
im ca l lin quan vi cc nguyn nhn hnh thnh n r rt trong khng gian. Nhng c im ny ca
l nh ln v cng l quyt nh vn u t ca cng trnh, quy m v s bn vng ca cng trnh.
C l nh quan trc thy vn khng th no qun c nhng trn l qut nhng vng chu nh hng
ca bo.
Ti nguyn nc v vic khai thc s dng hp l n lun lun l vn thi s v i hi nhng s
nghin cu c chiu su hn na trong khoa hc thy vn.

125

Chng 8
DNG CHY B NHT
Lu lng nc b nht l mt trong nhng c trng thy vn c bn, thng c s dng nhiu
trong cc qui hoch xy dng, ti tiu, s dng nc trong sinh hot v bo v mi trng.
Dng chy b nht l ch tiu iu chnh s phn phi dng chy trong nm, c bit l i vi cc
cng trnh i hi s vn hnh lin tc nh cng nghip nng,
thy in v.v..
Nh vy cc thng tin v lu lng nc cc tiu p ng nhu cu nh gi dng chy t nhin ca
sng ngi cng nh nh gi mc hot ng kinh t qua dng chy sng ngi.
Cc c trng tnh ton ch yu ca dng chy b nht l dng chy trung bnh thng hoc dng chy
trung bnh 30 ngy, thm ch dng chy trung bnh ngy m quan trc vo thi k kit.
Nu thi k kit trn sng ngn (t hn hai thng) hoc khng lin tc (ma kit xen ln ma l) th
kh c thng no khng c l, khi ta chn 30 ngy lin tc tnh c trng lu lng b nht. lm
c iu ta dng cc ng qu trnh nc cc nm quan trc chn mt thi k quan trc c 30
ngy nc kit lin tc lm thi k
tnh ton.
Nu ngay c vic chn mt thi k tnh ton 30 ngy cng gp kh khn th phi s dng thi k ngn
hn, nhng khng ngn hn 23-25 ngy trnh nh hng ca l trong tnh ton.
Dng chy trung bnh 30 ngy cc tiu lun nh hn dng chy trung bnh thng theo lch, bi vy
nu hiu ca chng khng sai khc qu 10% th nn s dng dng chy trung bnh thng.
Nu s dng ng tn sut th dng chy b nht ng vi tn sut t 75-97%.

8.1. TNH TON DNG CHY B NHT KHI C S LIU QUAN TRC
Khi tnh ton dng chy b nht ca sng ngi c quan trc thy vn v dng chy, di chui c
coi l xc nh xc sut tnh ton nm ca lu lng nc cc tiu nu nh sai s lch qun
phng tng i ca chui quan trc n khng vt
qu 15%.
Khi quan trng nht l cc nm nc t hay nhm nm theo sng tng t. H s bin i dng
chy cc tiu cc sng khng cn v khng ng bng nm trong khong 0,2-0,4. iu cho php s
dng tnh ton cc chui c t 8-15 nm. Tuy nhin nu h s bin i vo khong 0,7-1 i hi phi
ko di chui quan trc ti 20-40 nm.
Lu lng nc b nht vi tn sut tnh ton c xc nh bng vic s dng ba tham s Q, Cv , Cs
nh xc nh vi chun dng chy nm. Gi tr dng chy trung bnh ca lu lng l gi tr trung bnh
s hc tnh ring cho tng ma. Khi khng k chui c tnh ton vi 30 gi tr hay t hn (23-25 gi
tr).
Vic xy dng cc ng cong m bo dng chy b nht c tin hnh ring cho tng thi k theo
cc qui tc nh i vi dng chy nm. Nu gi tr dng chy b nht c nhng gi tr bng 0 do nc sng
ngi kh cn th tham s c trng ca chui c th ly theo phng php gii gii tch Alecxyev vi
ng cong m bo thc nghim c lm trn. Nu gi tr n vt qu gi tr cho php, cn phi tin
hnh ko di chui bng phng php tng t. Khi chn sng tng t trc ht cn ch n tnh ng
b v cc iu kin thy a cht ca cc lu vc ang xt. thc hin iu , cn nghin cu cc m t
a cht v bn vng nghin cu cng nh bn vng xc nh dng chy cc tiu xy dng cho

126

lnh th. V mt iu quan trng na khi chn sng tng t l cc sng phi c nh gi cng mt
hng theo kch c (din tch lu vc) hoc s chnh lch i lng l t nht.
Khi thiu c sng tng t v n > 40% th cn xt chui nh l thiu ti liu

quan trc.

8.2. TNH TON DNG CHY B NHT KHI KHNG C TI LIU QUAN TRC
Tnh ton lu lng nc b nht vi m bo cho trc i vi sng ngi cha nghin cu trong
trng hp ti liu thc t khng p ng tnh ton theo cc cng thc xc sut thng k, cn phi a v
mt trong cc phng php sau y:
1. Xc nh cc c trng cn tm ca dng chy b nht vi vic s dng cc quan trc ri rc v
dng chy v ti liu lu vc sng tng t.
2. Xc nh cc gi tr tnh ton dng chy trn c s khi qut ho qua ba tham s: chun dng chy
b nht, h s bin i v h s bt i xng theo ti liu ca cc sng c nghin cu.
3. S dng cc h s chuyn i t dng chy b nht ca mt tn sut m bo xc nh (cho trc)
ca dng chy cn tm.
Phng php th ba ngy nay c ng dng rng ri trong thc t qui hoch xy dng. Khi dng
chy b nht vi sut m bo cho trc l lu lng nc 30 ngy b nht ng 80 % sut m bo.
Khng ph thuc vo phng php tnh ton cc c trng cn thit ca dng chy b nht ( chun
hay l sut m bo dng chy cho trc) c xc nh bi hai phng php c bn: theo bn ng
ng dng chy hay theo cc mi ph thuc gia dng chy b nht vi cc iu kin a l t nhin chnh.
Mi phng php u c gii hn s dng nht nh: bn dng cho cc lu vc sng trung bnh, cn cc
quan h vng: sng nh.
Sng nh l cc sng hon ton khng c nui dng bng nc ngm. Kch thc lu vc c
coi l nh (kch thc gii hn) c xc nh bng cch xy dng mi quan h gia mun dng chy b
nht 30 ngy vi din tch lu vc. Cc quan h nh vy c xy dng cho cc vng ng nht v iu
kin a l t nhin (v tr a l, a hnh, m v.v..).
i vi vng tha m c din tch lu vc ln hn 20 km2 v lu vc ln hn 50 km2 trong vng m
bin ng s dng cng thc:

Qmin = ( F f ) n

(8.1)

vi Qmin- lu lng b nht 30 ngy; F - din tch lu vc sng ngi; f-din tch trung bnh ca vng khng
c dng chy hoc din tch trung bnh lu vc ngm; a, n - tham s c trng cho m ca vng cho
v cng thay i dng chy khi tng din tch lu vc. Khi din tch lu vc nghin cu nh hn din
tch lu vc trung bnh vng th dng chy b nht nhn gi tr 0.
Cng thc (8.1) khng dng c cho vng b chi phi bi s iu tit do ao h hoc c hin tng
thy vn karst.
Theo cc mi quan h ph thuc c cc phng php sau.
1. xc nh gi tr trung bnh nhiu nm(chun) m un dng chy ngy m b nht s dng
phng trnh:

Mnd = aM30 b

(8.2)

127

vi M nd - m un dng chy ngy m trung bnh b nht (l/skm2); M30 - m un dng chy 30 ngy m
b nht xc nh theo cc phng php tnh ton cho lu vc va v nh; a v b - cc tham s xc nh
theo cc quan h vng.
2. xc nh lu lng ngy m b nht ng sut m bo 80% s dng

phng trnh:

Q80% nd = kQ80% th

(8.3)

Q80%th - lu lng b nht 30 ngy (thng) ng vi tn sut m bo 80%; k - h s chuyn i, xc nh

theo bng quan h vng.

Tn ti mi quan h:
Q p = Q80%

(8.4)

vi Qp - lu lng nc ngy m (thng) b nht sut m bo tnh ton; - h s khng ph thuc vo

ma xc nh v din tch lu vc.
Ngoi vic xc nh dng chy b nht cn nghin cu c thi k kh cn ca sng ngi nh l mt ti
liu rt cn thit cho ngi s dng tin liu trc, nht l khi tnh ton c s dng cng thc (8.1).

8.3. TNH HNH DNG CHY KIT VIT NAM

Ma cn (kit) l thi k nc sng cn kit. Ngun cung cp nc sng trong ma cn l nc ngm
v mt s trn ma trong ma.

8.3.1. Cc thi k dng chy kit

Cn c vo lng nc v tnh bin ng ca n c th chia ma cn ra ba giai on:
- Giai on u ma cn: y l thi k chuyn tip t ma l sang ma cn, nc sng cn di do.
- Giai on gia ma cn: l thi k nc sng cn nht, ngun nc sng do nc ngm cung cp l
chnh.
- Giai on cui ma cn: thi k chuyn tip t kit sang ma l, nc sng tng ln r rt do nhng
trn ma u ma cung cp.
Tuy ma cn ko di t 7-9 thng nhng tng lng dng chy trong ma cn chim t 10 - 40%
dng chy nm. Dng chy ma cn ln nht Trung Trung B ni c l tiu mn, t nht Nam Ninh
Thun.

8.3.2. Nc trong ma kh v cc vn v nc
Nh trn nu, mc d c s lin tc ca gi ma ng bc trn lnh th nc ta, nhng do s
khc bit ca cc khi kh v mt nhit m v ng lc, ma kh trn t nc ta rt phc tp v c s
phn ho trong khng gian r rt.
iu biu hin rt r rng trong cc kiu thm trn quan im h sinh thi hay cc kiu cnh quan
c pht hin trong nhng nm gn y.
Khi nim ma kh trn quan im tng hp ny ng vi thi k m nc trong sng c ngun gc
nc ngm v n hon ton khc vi khi nim ma trong thy vn m chng ti cp nhng phn
trc.
Trong ma kh cc qu trnh bc hi tng mnh, lng nc trong t v nc ngm gim i r rt;
mt khc s chuyn ng ca cc tng di ln cng vi s chuyn ng ngang gy ra tp trung cao
cc c t c hi cho cy trng.

128

a) Hu qu ca s kh hn trong ma kh vng ng bng Bc B l nhng hin tng sng mui.

Nhng ni chu nh hng ca sng mui nng l nhng thung lng hng v ng bc v c lng nc
ngm thp nht.
y l hin tng c th c lin quan vi nc trong ma kh v cc kiu cnh quan na rng l c
ma kh lnh.
b) ng bng Nam B li xut hin hin tng phn. N c trng cho kiu cnh quan rng rng l
vi ma kh nng.

129

Chng 9
DNG CHY RN
Dng nc vi bt k qui m no u thc hin mt cng m gi tr ca n ph thuc vo lng nc
chy v cao nc chy trn on . Mt phn nng lng c chi vo vic bo mn v xi l trn
sn dc, b v y sng ngi, vn chuyn sn phm theo dng chy. Sn phm vt cht rn v cht ha
tan mang theo dng nc c gi l dng chy rn.
C hai loi xi mn c bn l xi su v xi ngang. Xi su c trng cho vng thng lu v xi
ngang c trng cho vng trung, h lu sng ngi.
Kho st qu trnh hnh thnh ph sa sng ngi ch ra rng, vng cung cp ph sa ch yu ca sng
ngi l vt cht t b mt lu vc v mng li sng sui nh u ngun. Phn ln cc vt cht b bo mn
lng ng v tch t ti cc ch trng trn lu vc v chn sn, ca sui, mt phn vt cht ht mn tham
gia vo lng sng di dng ph sa l lng. Mt phn ph sa khi xm nhp vo sng b gi li cc
cng trnh v.v.. nn cc o c ti cc trm thy vn khng tin hnh c.
Mt lng ph sa trong sng do s bo mn y v hai b trong qu trnh chuyn ng ca dng nc
gy nn bi chuyn ng ri v di chuyn theo dng nc di hai dng: l lng v di y gi l ph sa l
lng v ph sa di y. Ph sa l lng trong sng chim i b phn. min ng bng, ph sa y ch
chim khong 10% ph sa l lng, min ni t 10-20 % hoc hn na.
Khi nghin cu v tnh ton dng chy rn ch yu quan tm n ph sa l lng.
Ph sa l lng bao gm c cc mui ha tan v cc hp cht ho hc khc tri theo dng nc.
Do vy ph sa (dng chy rn) tu trung gm ba thnh phn chnh: 1) ph sa l lng; 2) ph sa y;
3) vt cht ha tan.
Thng tin v dng chy rn v phng php tnh ton chng khng km phn quan trng so vi cc
c trng dng chy khc. Cc c trng v cng bo mn t sn dc v lng sui rt cn thit cho
cc qui hoch xy dng. Khi thit k v vn hnh h cha ngi ta quan tm nhiu n lng v iu kin
lng ng vt cht trong sng. S liu ny cn phc v cho giao thng ng thy v cc cng trnh th
khc.
Thng thng cc thng tin v dng chy rn t hn so vi thng tin v dng chy nc k c v s
lng ln cht lng do h thng quan trc v cht lng dng c o cha m bo tin cy cao.
Khi gii quyt mt s bi ton thc t thng dng cc phng php gin tip tnh ton dng chy
rn l phng php tng t hoc bn ho. Gi tr trn bn thng l c trng c nc sng S0
hoc m un dng ph sa l lng MS0 c xc nh theo cng thc:

S0 =
M S0 =

QS 0 3
10
Q0

(9.1)

QS 0 31,5.10 6
10 3.F

(9.2)

vi S0 v MS0 - tng ng l c trung bnh nhiu nm (g/m3) v m un dng chy ph sa l lng trung
bnh nhiu nm (T/km2.nm); QS0 v Q0 - lu lng trung bnh nhiu nm ca ph sa l lng (kg/s) v nc
(m3/s). F- din tch lu vc (km2).

130

Cc nghin cu cho thy cc qu trnh hnh thnh dng chy rn c qui nh bi nhiu yu t cn
c tnh n khi tnh ton lc c cng nh khng c quan trc.

9.1. CC YU T HNH THNH DNG CHY RN

Cc yu t ch yu hnh thnh dng chy rn xc nh cng v qui m xi mn trn b mt lu
vc bao gm: 1) cng v qui m dng chy mt; 2) dc ca sn v y sng; 3) trng thi b mt
lu vc v mc thm thc vt; 4) hot ng kinh t nhn sinh. Mt nhm th hin nng lc cng ph
ca dng chy, nhm kia l sc khng ca mt m. Phng chung ca s pht trin xi mn v hnh
thnh dng chy rn l cc iu kin kh hu (a i) v ph thuc vo thm thc vt, tnh cht t v
cc a hnh nh. Trong s cc iu kin kh hu th cng ma ng vai tr quan trng, sau l ch
nhit v gi, m ca t ai.
Cng xi mn b mt lu vc th hin r nht vo ma ma l khi tnh cht ca ma (cng ,
qui m) quyt nh vt cht ban u tch ra khi b mt lu vc v sau l cc yu t mt m.
Ma ro tc ng c hc vt l ln vt cht bc khi b mt lu vc nhiu lng xi mn
tng. Ma dm th ngc li.
dc ln vn tc dng chy mnh nng lng ti vt cht ln ph sa mang vo sng ngi
nhiu hn, dc nh th ngc li.
Thm thc vt dy ma st ln b mt lu vc lng vt cht cun khi lu vc gim v ngc
li.
Kt cu t bn vng xi mn b mt nh vt cht t b bo mn ph sa gim. Khi c hot
ng kinh t nhn sinh trn b mt lu vc cu trc t ai b ph v xi mn tng ph sa tng.
Din tch lu vc ln vt cht nhiu ph sa ln v ngc li.

9.2. TNH TON DNG CHY PH SA

Cc c trng chung ca dng chy rn v cc chi tit ca n c xc nh ph thuc vo i tng
thit k.
Khi c quan trc h thng khng t hn 15-20 nm, cc tham s dng chy nm ca ph sa l lng
c tnh theo ti liu o c thy vn. nh gi s b tin cy ca ti liu gc v tnh hiu qu ca
thi k quan trc, ngi ta thng phn tch quan h th ca lu lng ph sa trung bnh nm QSn v lu
lng nc nm Qn. Chui c coi l c hiu qu nu cc im tng thch phn b tng i u v ph
hp vi thay i lu lng nc trong tm gi tr ca chng vi sut m bo t 5-95% (hoc 75%) v
lch ca mt vi im ring bit khng vt qu 20-25% so vi ng trung bnh. i vi sng ngi c
ch nc phc tp vi cc im phn tn, cn c chui di ln hn mi c th c mt quan h cht
ch c. Quan h loi ny xy dng ring cho ma l v ma kit theo s liu lu lng trung bnh thng
ca ph sa v nc.
Nu chui l hiu qu th tham s dng chy nm ca ph sa: lu lng ph sa trung bnh nhiu nm,
h s bin i v bt i xng ca chng c xc nh theo phng php gii - gii tch hoc phng
php momen vi vic xy dng cc ng cong m bo thc nghim v l thuyt.
Vi thi k quan trc dng ph sa khng hiu qu khi m lng nc thi k sai khc vi tr s
trung bnh nhiu nm trong gii hn 20%, chun dng chy ph sa xp x c tnh theo cng thc:
QS 0 =

Q0
QS
Qtb

tb

(9.3)

131

vi Q0 v QS0 - tng ng chun lu lng v ph sa; Qtb v QStb - lu lng nc v ph sa trung bnh cho
thi k ng quan trc (n nm). Gi tr cc h s bin i ca lu lng ph sa l lng Cv trong trng
hp ny c xc nh theo cc quan h a phng hoc tng t, cn Cs ly bng 2 Cv .
Vi cc chui quan trc ph sa ngn (t hn 15-20 nm) v c quan h lu lng ph sa v lu lng
nc nm v quan h th hin r bin dao ng lng nc, tnh ton cc tham s dng chy ph sa
nm c thc hin bng phng php gii bi quan h QSn=f(Qn). Theo cc quan h ca lu lng
nc v ph sa, khi bit lu lng nc trung bnh nhiu nm tnh c lu lng ph sa nhiu nm.
Cc phng php thng k xc nh cc tham s tnh ton ca ph sa theo ti liu quan trc QS0
c coi l nu sai s lch qun phng tng i QS0 10 15%. Tnh QS0 theo cng thc phn
trn v nu QS0 c xc nh bng phng php gii th gi tr QS0 c tnh nh sau:

QS 0 =

100Cvp ln
n

n 2

QN
1,
N Q2 n

1 + r 2

(9.4)

vi N- s nm quan trc dng chy nc; n - s nm ng quan trc dng chy nc v ph sa; Cvp ln - h
s bin i ph sa l lng cho n nm; r - h s tng quan gia i lng dng chy nc v ph sa nm;
QN v Qn - lch qun phng dng chy nm cho thi on n v tng s N nm.
Tnh bin i ca dng chy ph sa nm c tnh vi lng ng lng h vi chui t hn 50 nm
hoc bit lng ph sa vi cc thi on lng nc khc nhau. Khi s dng chui quan trc hoc tnh
ton lu lng nc v ph sa vi sp xp theo th t gim dn v chn dng chy ph sa xc sut b i
vi vic nhm cc nm c tn sut khc nhau.
S phn b dng chy ph sa trong nm vi chui quan trc khng t hn 8-10 nm c xc nh
bng cch tnh cc lu lng ph sa thng trung bnh cho cc nm c trng: dng chy ph sa trung bnh,
ln nht v nh nht. Theo ti liu cc nm xc nh cc gi tr lu lng ph sa cho tng ma.
Phn b cc gi tr c nc trung bnh ngy cho di dng bng, cha s ngy c c khng
vt qu cc gi tr sau: 50, 100, 200, 500, 1000, 2000, 10 000 v 50 000 g/m3.
Khi khng y ti liu quan trc tnh ton trc tip hoc thiu trn vn mi c trng v tham s
ca dng chy rn ngi ta xc nh theo sng tng t. Vic la chn sng tng t da trn vic phn
tch v so snh cc yu t ch o xc nh s hnh thnh dng chy ph sa hai sng. Cc lu vc cn c
cc gi tr dc, th nhng, che ph, cy xi ao h v m ly gn nhau. Kch thc din tch lu
vc khng chnh nhau qu 3-5 ln. cao lu vc khng chnh nhau qu 500 mt. Cng nn tnh n c
s iu tit dng chy do h cha v cc vng vnh... Tnh ton bng phng php sng tng t c tin
cy nu trn c hai sng tin hnh kho st s b mt nm quan trc ng b cc o c thy vn. c
trng chnh ca dng chy rn l chun dng chy ph sa l lng nm ca sng cha nghin cu thng
xc nh theo bn c sng ngi v bng phng php ni suy gia cc lu vc nghin cu vi
gi tr a v trung tm lu vc:
QS0

S0 M0 F
106

(9.5)

vi QS0 - lu lng trung bnh nhiu nm ca ph sa l lng (chun) kg/s; S0 - c trung bnh nhiu nm
ca nc (chun) g/m3; M0 - m un dng chy trung bnh nhiu nm ca nc ti tuyn tnh ton l/skm2;
F - din tch lu vc tnh ton, km2.
Bn thn c trn bn mang tnh a i v ko theo n l dng chy rn. Khi ni suy cn tun
th cc nguyn tc v cc yu t nh hng. Trong thc t s dng bn c c xy dng cho
nhng lu vc ln v va, khng tnh n iu tit trn cc lu vc nn kt qu nhn c thng thin b.

132

 c cc sng nh thng cao hn sng c ti liu xy dng trn bn cho nn dng bn cn a

thm mt h s hiu chnh, xc nh theo cng thc:

S0 M

= K c S0

(9.6)

vi S0 - c trung bnh nhiu nm ca nc sng trong vng a i xc nh theo bn ; Kc - h s

chuyn i.
H s bin i dng chy nm ca ph sa l lng cc sng cha nghin cu cng xc nh theo
phng php sng tng t nhng cn tnh n cc quan h a phng.
H s bt i xng cc sng cha nghin cu thng c ly bng hai ln gi tr h s bin i. Ph
sa y thng chim khng ng k so vi ph sa l lng v thng khng vt qu 20% vng ng
bng; 30-35% vng ni.

9.3. TNH TON LNG NG H CHA

Khi tnh ton lng ng h cha v thi gian phc v cn c mi tham s ph sa l lng v ph sa y
do sng ngi mang n, xc nh lng vt cht do xi ngang mang n t b h cha v cc nhn t lng
ng khc.
Lng ph sa t b xc nh bng cc c trng trc a bn on thung lng sng c h cha, t
, vn tc v hng gi, sng trong h.
Cn lm r thnh phn v lng ph sa trm tch y h tnh ch sng ngi pha di p, do
khng ph sa y nn xy ra xi mn mnh v.v..
nh gi phn b ph sa trong lng h cn c cc thng tin v cc gi tr v phn b vn tc dng
chy trong h vi cc ht ph sa l lng c ln thy lc cho trc.
Vi iu tit nhiu nm v h s iu tit ln thc hin c nhng tnh ton khong ho ca nc
vi thang thnh phn ho hc.
nh gi gn ng thi on trung bnh lng ng ca h vi trm tch ph sa u theo cc chu k
khc nhau s dng cng thc:
T =

Wn
Ws (1 )

(9.7)

vi T - thi on lng ng trung bnh ca h (nm); Wn - th tch cht ca h; Ws - th tch ph sa tng

trung bnh nhiu nm; - phn chuyn i ca ph sa khi h cha (%).
Gi tr Ws c tnh theo cng thc:
Ws =

Qs0 .31,5.10 3

(9.8)

- mt trung bnh ca trm tch y T/m3.

9.4. L BN
L bn l dng hn hp nc v t (60%) mnh, ngn vi sc ph hu gh gm trn cc lu
vc sng nh min ni. L bn xut hin khi c dng chy mt mnh do ma ln, v h cha trn cc
sn y vt cht b phong ho.
Cc yu t thun li xut hin l bn l:
1. Cnh quan vng i ni - dc sn lu vc v thung lng ln. dc dng chy ln.

133

2. S xut hin trn cc sn, thung lng v y sng mt lng ln cc vt cht rn, b ri - sn
phm ca xi mn.
3. Xut hin ma t ngt vi cng ln nhng lng t.
Thc vy l bn hay xut hin ti cc lu vc vng ni vng sa mc hay bn sa mc t cc lu vc
nh c ma ln.
Cng xi mn mnh m trn cc lu vc c l bn l nh cc yu t kh hu, a mo lu vc
v cc sn. Khi xy ra l qut, mt khi lng ln vt cht nm trong trng thi mt cn bng cho nn ch
cn mt tc ng nh (ma ln) l ko theo mt chuyn ng ln ca khi vt cht xung pha di v
cun theo cc vt cht mi trn qu o chuyn ng v hnh thnh l bn .
L bn c th cha ti 600 -1000 kg ph sa trn 1 m3 nc trong khi sng ngi c c cao ch
c 150 kg/m3.
Th tch bn do mt con l mang theo c th tnh theo cng thc:
WS = S F = 1000 g (t ) F ,

(9.9)

vi Ws - th tch ph sa m3; s - th tch ring lng vt cht a ra m3/km2; hm trng s g (t) - lp bn

a ra mt ln, mm; F - din tch lu vc, km2.
Gi tr gn ng ca th tch bn a ra c th tnh theo cng thc th tch bnh thng ca l c
tnh ti lng ph sa:
(9.10)
W S = 1000 HF 0 ,
vi H - lp nc ma to l, mm; - h s dng chy; F - din tch lu vc km2; 0 - lng th tch ph sa
trong mt m3 nc. Gi tr H v ly theo qui phm tnh ma l.
L bn l mt hin tng tai bin thin nhin nguy him nhng cha c nghin cu k. Gn y
Vit Nam cng xut hin nhiu l qut gy nhiu hu qu nghim trng cho i sng v tn ph mi
trng. Cn c s quan tm ng mc phng chng, bo v i sng ngi dn, bo v mi trng.

134

Chng 10
M HNH HO TON HC DNG CHY
M hnh ho - l mt phng php khoa hc y hiu lc gip con ngi xm nhp su vo bn
cht ca nhng hin tng t nhin hoc x hi phc tp. Mc ch m hnh ho l to dng hin tng
sao cho thng qua vic nghin cu n, con ngi thu nhn c nhng thng tin mi cn thit. Nu vic
dng hin tng c thc hin bi tp hp cc h thc ton hc (phng trnh - bt ng thc, iu kin
lgic, ton t...) chng ta c m hnh ton hin tng .
Trong 30 nm gn y, din ra s pht trin su rng vic m hnh ho nhng hin tng v h
thng t nhin khc nhau. M hnh ho dng chy cng nm trong tro lu . nhiu nc hon thnh
cng vic s v xy dng cc m hnh ton dng chy. Vn m hnh ho dng chy c tho lun
trn nhiu hi ngh quc t. S xut bn v m hnh ho dng chy ln n con s vi trm.
Mt trong nhng vn then cht ca tnh ton thy vn l lun lun nh gi lng dng chy v
mt l do no khng trc tip o c c. Khi thit k h nc hoc mt h thng thy li, ngnh thy
vn lun lun phi nh gi " chui dng chy tng lai ra sao, bao gm nhng t hp nhm nm nhiu
nc, t nc th no, kh nng dng chy cc oan l bao nhiu v.v.. . "Ch khi c li gii cho nhng cu
hi ny, chng ta mi c th xut m hnh, kch thc cng trnh cn xy dng. Khng phi ngu nhin
m hai nh thy li X Vit ni ting X.L. Kristky v M.F. Menkel pht biu" bn cht kinh t nc ny
nm ngay trong qu trnh dng chy". Nh qun l thy li v h thng thy li lun lun phi bn khon,
"c th ch n dng chy bng bao nhiu trong mt vi ngy ti". D on chnh xc iu ny nng cao
ng k hiu qu hot ng ca cng trnh. im chung ca cc vn nu trn l nh thy vn lun lun
phi nh gi " c th ch i nhng g t nhin?". Tm li, ta cn phi m hnh ho nhng hin tng
thy vn.
M hnh ho dng chy - l ch to dng chy, cn m hnh ton- quy trnh, cng ngh ca vic
ch to . Cn khng nh mt iu: "M hnh ton khng th no trng hp hon ton vi m hnh thc,
(hin tng)". Do vy, m hnh ton hon ton khng ph thuc n tr vo hin tng nghin cu. iu
ny ct ngha v sao trong vi chc nm gn y ra i hng chc m hnh dng chy cng m phng
mt hin tng.

10.1. PHN LOI M HNH DNG CHY

Trn hng trm m hnh hnh thnh dng chy hin hnh, c th thng nht tch ra hai loi m hnh
phn bit: m hnh tt nh v m hnh ngu nhin. S phn bit ny cng nm ngay trong mc ch m
hnh ho: Ch to chui dng chy trong tng lai phc v bi ton thit k hay d bo ngn hn dng
chy phc v bi ton qun l - iu khin h thng thy li.

10.1.1. M hnh ngu nhin

Quan nim xc sut ln u c Hazen a vo trong thy vn t nm 1914. Ngy nay, dng chy
c coi l mt qu trnh ngu nhin.
Vi quan im ny, trong cu trc cc m hnh ngu nhin khng c cc nhn t hnh thnh dng chy
v nguyn liu xy dng m hnh chnh l bn thn chui dng chy qu kh, phi di c th bc
l ht bn tnh ca mnh. S tht, dng chy l hin tng nhiu nhn t. Tng nhn t dng chy n lt
mnh li l hm ca v vn cc nhn t khc m quy lut bin i ca chng con ngi cha m t c.

135

Do vy, trong kt cc cui cng, tng hp ca v vn cc mi quan h tng h phc tp, dng chy biu
hin l mt hin tng ngu nhin. Do tnh ngu nhin c th hin nhiu nht dng chy nm v iu
tit nhiu nm dng chy, lp m hnh ny hon ton khng nh gi c kh nng pht sinh cng nhng
din bin ng lc ca qu trnh, m ch yu l sn sinh ra nhng th hin mi y hn ca mt qu
trnh ngu nhin. Ngy nay, lnh vc ny ca m hnh ho dng chy c tch ra thnh mt chuyn ngnh
ring ca thy vn di tn gi- m hnh ho thy vn.

10.1.2. M hnh tt nh
Mc d bn cht ca dng chy l ngu nhin, cng tha nhn tn ti nhng giai on hnh thnh
dng chy, trong nhng thnh phn tt nh ng vai tr ch yu. Qu trnh hnh thnh mt trn l do
ma ro l mt th d minh ho. Nh vy, nu nhng m hnh ngu nhin l m hnh to chui dng chy
th m hnh tt nh hnh thnh dng chy.
Trong vic m hnh ho hnh thnh dng chy c hai cch tip cn:
1. Cch tip cn vt l - ton: Bi ton bin i ma thnh dng chy c th c gii cho cc khu
vc nghin cu theo cch sau. Trn c s phn tch ti liu quan trc ma v dng chy cho nhiu lu vc
thuc vng a l - kh hu khc nhau, tin hnh nghin cu chi tit cc hin tng vt l to nn qu trnh
hnh thnh dng chy v xy dng nhng quy lut tng ng, c biu din di dng phng trnh, cc
cng thc ton v.v.. Ni chung, cc phng trnh, cc cng thc u ch l cc cch biu din ba quy
lut chung nht ca vt cht trong trng hp ring c th:

a) Bo ton vt cht (phng trnh lin tc hoc cn bng nc),

b) Bo ton nng lng (phng trnh cn bng ng lc hay phng trnh chuyn ng th hin
nguyn l Dalambera),
c) Bo ton ng lng ( phng trnh ng lng).
Sau , c cc c trng a hnh- thy vn a mo lu vc, m ban u, qu trnh ma cng cc
c trng kh tng, c th trc tip bin i ngay qu trnh ma thnh qu trnh dng chy mt ct ca
ra lu vc theo cc phng trnh v cc cng thc c thit lp. Trong trng hp tng qut, nhng
cng thc c biu din di dng cc phng trnh vi phn o hm ring th: c trng a hnh - thy
a mo lu vc ng vai tr cc thng s phng trnh (cc hng s hoc trong trng hp chung s bin
i theo thi gian) qu trnh ma cho chng ta iu kin bin, cn trng thi lu vc cho chng ta iu kin
ban u. H Saint - Venant cng vi nhng phng php s c th gii n cho ta mt minh ho v cch tip
cn ny trong vic m hnh ho giai on cui cng hnh thnh dng chy- giai on chy trn b mt lu
vc v trong mng li sng.
Lnh vc ny ca m hnh ho dng chy c nhng c th v phng php nghin cu ring bit
khng th thiu c nhng ti liu nghin cu c bn cng vi nhng ti liu nghin cu rt chi tit v tn
km v a hnh, v cc c trng thy a mo khu vc, cc c trng din bin ca ma theo khng
gian...
Khc t s dng b ti liu chi tit v a hnh - a mo cng cc c trng khc v lu vc, chng
ta ch c mt cch coi lu vc nh l mt h ng lc. V trong vic m hnh ho s hnh thnh dng chy,
s dng cch tip cn thng s ho.
2. Cch tip cn thng s ho l cch tip cn th trng da trn vic s dng ti liu quan trc ng
b gia ma v dng chy. iu ny cho php la chn cc thng s ca cc biu thc ton hc theo ti
liu o c.

136

T nhng nim vt l (cn nguyn) s xy dng cu trc chung m hnh, cha hng lot cc thng
s cng cc gi tr ban u ca chng c gng xut pht t nhng ngha vt l. Sau theo ti liu quan
trc ma - dng chy ca nhiu trn l trn mt lu vc c th, tin hnh xc nh b thng s.
Khi m hnh ho, lu vc sng hot ng nh mt ton t bin i hm vo q(t) - m t lng nc
n b mt lu vc thnh hm ra Q(t) - m t qu trnh dng chy hnh thnh. Hai cch tip cn trn dn
n 2 dng ton t lu vc L1 v L2:
Q = L1(Q, q, x, y, z) {q(x,y,z)}

(10.1)

z = f(x,y)
Q = L2(Q,q,t){q(t)}.

(10.2)

Ton t L2 - cch tip cn thng s ho m t s chuyn i hm vo thnh hm ra khng ph thuc

vo tng im c th ca lu vc, c ngha l loi b s thay i theo khng gian cc c trng lu vc.
Trong trng hp ny c th coi cc thng s tp trung ti mt im. Do nhng m hnh c xy dng
theo cch thng s ho c gi l m hnh cc thng s tp trung.
Ton t L1 m t s chuyn i c xt s phn b khng u theo khng gian khng nhng ca cc
c trng lu vc m cn c hm vo v hm ra. l nhng m hnh c thng s ri (phn b) hay c
gi l nhng m hnh vt l - ton.
Cc ton t lu vc khng ph thuc hm vo v hm ra:
L(Q, q, t) L(t)

t y c th rt ra nguyn l xp chng:
L{q1(t) + q2(t} = L{q1(t)} + L{q2(t)}.
L{ cq(t)} = cL{q)t}

Vi nhng m hnh dng, ton t lu vc khng ph thuc vo thi gian:

L(Q,q,t) L(Q,q)

Nu m hnh tuyn tnh dng

L(Q,q,t) L.

y l m hnh n gin nht, c s dng trong trng hp khng c thng tin g v cc c trng
lu vc.
Nhng m hnh c thng s tp trung (ton t lu vc dng L2) n lt mnh li c chia lm hai
loi: M hnh "hp en" v m hnh " quan nim".
M hnh " hp en". "Hp en" - thut ng dng trong iu khin hc ch nhng h thng m cu
to v cc thng s ca n hon ton khng r rng, ch c th c xc nh trn c s nhng thng tin
vo - ra. Trong thc t sn xut, i khi xut hin tnh hung khi cn xy dng nhng quan h ma - dng
chy cng ch c nhng quan trc u vo (ma) u ra (dng chy) h thng. Nhng trng hp ny
buc phi coi lu vc l mt "hp en". Tnh trng thiu thng tin v lu vc ch cho php xy dng nhng
m hnh th s nht; khi xy dng chng ngi ta cng hon ton khng c thng tin g v lu vc ngoi
vic coi n l mt h thng tuyn tnh v dng. Do vy, trong thy vn: m hnh "hp en" ng ngha vi
m hnh tuyn tnh - dng.

Lp m hnh "hp en" xut hin kh sm vo thi k u ca s pht trin m hnh thy vn tt
nh. Ngy nay lp m hnh ny ch cn tn ti vi t cch m t mt giai on cui trong s hnh thnh
dng chy - giai on chy: giai on bin i lp cp nc trn lu vc thnh dng chy ca ra.

137

M hnh quan nim: Qu trnh bin i ma thnh dng chy - mt qu trnh phi tuyn phc tp gm
nhiu giai on. Cng vi s pht trin ca l thuyt hnh thnh dng chy, m hnh quan nim ra i. C
th nh ngha m hnh quan nim l loi m hnh c m t bi mt tp hp cc quan h ton hc, tng
quan h biu din tng mt ring ca qu trnh, nhng kt hp li chng m hnh ho c qu trnh trn vn.
Vi s xut hin ca my tnh in t vo gia nhng nm 50, lp m hnh "hp en" hon ton li bc
trc nhng m hnh "quan nim" cho php m t y hn, chnh xc hn qu trnh " ma -dng chy"
c hnh thnh t hng lot cc qu trnh thnh phn ma, bc hi, in trng, thm thc vt, nc thm,
chy mt, st mt, ngm... Ngy nay, c th thy hng lot cc m hnh quan nim rt pht trin nh m
hnh SSARR (M), TANK (Nht), STANFORD - 4 (M), CLS (), HMC (Lin X), SMART (Bc Ailen),
GIRARD - 1( Php).v.v...

10.1.3. M hnh ng lc - ngu nhin

Trong nhng nm gn y xut hin nhng xu hng lin kt cch tip cn tt nh v ngu nhin
vo vic m t cc hin tng thy vn. Vic xt tnh ngu nhin ca cc qu trnh trong m hnh tt nh
din ra theo 3 phng hng:
1. Xt sai s tnh ton nh mt qu trnh ngu nhin v tr thnh mt thnh phn trong cc m hnh tt
nh.
2. S dng cc m t xc sut - thng k (lut phn b) ca cc tc ng kh tng - thy vn vi t
cch l hm vo ca m hnh tt nh.
3. Xt cc quy lut phn b xc sut theo khng gian ca tc ng kh tng - thy vn vo lu vc.
Vi nhng tng ny hnh thnh nhng m hnh ng lc - ngu nhin. Do s phc tp ca vn
, lp m hnh ny mi ch giai on u ca s khai sinh. S phn loi m hnh nu trn c trnh by
nh trn hnh 10.1
M hnh ton dng chy

M hnh tt nh

M hnh ngu nhin

M hnh thng s tp trung

M hnh hp en

M hnh thng s phn phi

M hnh quan nim

M hnh vt l - ton

Hnh 10.1. S phn loi m hnh ton - dng chy

M hnhng lc - ngu nhin

138

10.2. NHNG NGUYN L CHUNG TRONG VIC XY DNG M HNH " HP EN" - LP
M HNH TUYN TNH DNG
Khi xy dng m hnh "hp en" chng ta hon ton khng c thng tin g v cc c trng lu vc
cng vi nhng qu trnh xy ra trn n ngoi gi thit: lu vc l h thng tuyn tnh - dng. Cn lm
sng t, trong nhng iu kin no c th coi lu vc hoc on sng l h tuyn tnh - dng?
1. Nh phn trn nu, m bo nguyn l "xp chng", cu to h thng cng nhng c trng
ca n khng c ph thuc vo hm vo (tc ng) v hm ra (phn ng). iu ny cn c ngha rng:
Cc c trng thy a mo lu vc v on sng ( dc mt nc, h s nhm, tc truyn l v thi
gian chy truyn) khng c ph thuc vo lu lng nc. Nh vy h thy vn khng phi l tuyn
tnh, nhng gi thuyt v tnh tuyn tnh ca n trong nhiu trng hp t ra rt hu ch vi t cch l s
xp x ban u.
2. Nu nh thi gian ca qu trnh hnh thnh dng chy nh hn nhiu so vi khong thi gian trong
nhng c trng ca lu vc hay on sng c nhng thay i ng k th c th coi lu vc (on
sng) l mt h dng (vi ngha l khng thay i theo thi gian).
Trng hp tng qut, hot ng ca mt h ng lc tuyn tnh - dng c m t bi nhng
phng trnh vi phn thng, lin h phn ng h thng Q(t) vi tc ng q(t):

d nQ
dQ
d nQ
dq
+
...
+

Q
(
t
)
=

+ ... + 1
+ 0 Q(t )
1
0
n
n
n
dt
dt
dt
dt

(10.3)

Cc h s i, i l cc hng s m t c trng ca lu vc (on sng).

Nh vy, cng c ton hc m t v phn tch nhng m hnh hp en l l thuyt phng trnh vi
phn thng tuyn tnh. Trong khi xy dng cc m hnh "hp en" v dng chy, cc tc gi thng kt
hp s m t ton hc vi s tng t vt l thng qua cc nguyn t vt l. Hai nguyn t vt l c bn
nht, c mt hu ht trong cc m hnh "hp en" khc nhau l: B cha tuyn tnh Ai v knh tuyn tnh.
1. B cha tuyn tnh Ai, l b cha tng trng c lu lng chy ra t l thun vi th tch nc
trong :
Qi = CiWi

(10.4)

Nh s thy r sau ny, hot ng ca b cha tuyn tnh lun lun c c s m t bi ton t c
bn c dng:

Ai = ai

d
+ bi ,
dt

(10.5)

trong , ai v bi l cc c trng ca b cha. Mt b cha tuyn tnh c th c mt hoc vi ca vo, mt

hoc vi ca ra. Cc m hnh dng chy khc nhau cng mt phn do s kt hp khc nhau ca b cha
tuyn tnh.
M hnh dng chy vng ni do nhm nghin cu I.M. enhixp xut hai b cha thng ng.
Trong m hnh TANK, M.Sugawara s dng nhiu b mc ni tip - song song. M hnh Kalinhin Miliukp - Nash gm nhiu b cha tuyn tnh mc ni tip.
2. Knh tuyn tnh: l knh tng trng c chiu di x vi thi gian chy truyn khng i vi
mi cp lu lng Q. Nh vy, khi lan truyn trn knh tuyn tnh, hnh dng ng qu trnh lu lng
khng b bin dng. C ngha, nu hm vo q = f(t), th hm ra:
Q=f(t-).

139

B tuyn tnh c tc dng lm bin dng (bt) sng l, knh tuyn tnh c tc dng dch chuyn sng
l. l hai nguyn t c bn nht to nn m hnh khc nhau. Trong m hnh ca Dooge J.C.I., cc b
tuyn tnh v cc knh tuyn tnh c mc xen k tng i mt.
Din tch lu vc c chia thnh n phn bi cc ng ng thi. Tng din tch b phn c coi l
mt cp knh tuyn tnh v b tuyn tnh. Nh vy, lng nc n b th i gm 2 b phn: dng chy t
b (i-1) qua knh tuyn tnh vo b i v lng ma ri trc tip xung b i. M hnh ca Dooge trc tip
hon thin m hnh ca Nash.
Khi xy dng m hnh, tu thuc vo kh nng iu tit ca lu vc cng s cm nhn tinh t ca
ngi xy dng, quyt nh s b cha, kiu kt hp gia chng v vi cc knh tuyn tnh. Nn lu
la chn cu trc n gin nht m vn m bo chnh xc. S phc tp ho m hnh i khi t ra tha
v dn n lu tch sai s tnh ton. Trong vic xc nh b thng s, m hnh phc tp, nhiu thng s, s
thng gp phi hiu ng "r qu k" khi xy dng m hnh, hon ton c th s dng cc loi b cha phi
tuyn v knh phi tuyn. Trong mc ny ch trnh by nhng k thut c bn nht ca vic xy dng lp
m hnh tuyn tnh - dng.

10.2.1. Mt s cu trc m hnh tuyn tnh c bn

1. m phng tc dng iu tit ca lng sng trn on sng c lng nhp khu gia, ngi ta s
dng k thut mc ni tip cc b tuyn tnh.
q1
Q0

q2
Q1

q3
Q2

A2

A1
R1

qn
Qn-1

A3
R2

An
R3

Rn

Hnh 10.2. S mc ni tip cc b tuyn tnh

Hot ng ca b tuyn tnh ny c m t bi phng trnh vi phn dng:

dWi
= Qi 1 + qi Qi Ri .
dt

(10.6)

Cc lu lng ra khi b t l thun vi lng nc trong b:

Qi = CiWi

(10.7)

Ri = iWi

(10.8)

dWi 1 dQi
=
dt
ci dt

(10.9)

t (11.7) v (11.8) ta c

Ri =

i
ci

Qi .

(10.10)

Thay (10.9), (10.10) vo (10.6), ta c:

ai
140

dQ1
+ bi Qi = Qi 1 + qi
dt

i = 1,2,..., n

(10.11)

vi ai =

1
,
ci

bi = 1 +

i
ci

Qu trnh truyn l trn on sng c m t bi h n phng trnh vi phn:

dQ1
+ b1Q1 = Q0 + q1
dt
dQ2
a2
+ b2 Q2 = Q1 + q2
dt
a1

...........................................

an

dQn
+ bn Qn = Qn 1 + qn .
dt

(10.12)

H (10.12) tng ng vi mt phng trnh vi phn bc n. t c iu , ta tin hnh nh

sau: Gii phng trnh th hai trong h i vi Q1, ly o hm ca n, thay Q1 v

dQ1
tm c vo
dt

phng trnh th nht s c:

a1a 2

d 2 Q2
dQ
dq
+ (a1b2 + a 2 b1 ) 2 + b1b2 Q2 = Q0 + q1 + ...a1 2 + b1q2
2
dt
dt
dt

(10.13)

hoc:

d
d

a1 + b1 a 2 + b2 Q2 = Q0 + q1 + a1 + b1 q2 .
dt
dt

dt

Tng t gii phng trnh th ba trong (10.12) i vi Q2, ly o hm bc 1, bc 2 i vi Q2 v th

vo (10.13). Tip tc thut ton ny i vi Qn v cui cng ta c:
n 1
n d
k d

=
+
+
+
a
b
Q
Q
q

ai + bi q k +1 .

i
i
0
1

dt

k =1 i =1
i =1 dt

(10.14)

Nh vy v tri ca phng trnh dng (10.3) lun c th a v dng tch ca cc ton t Ai dng
(10.4) nh trong (10.14).
Trong trng hp cc b tuyn tnh Ai u nh nhau ai=a v bi=b i vi mi i:
n

n 1
d

a + b Q = Q0 + a + b qk +1

dt

k =0 dt

(10.15)

Kt hp vi lng nhp khu gia phn b u trn on sng qk=q vi mi k:

AnQ=Q0 + q(1+ A + A2 +... + An-1)

(10.16)

vi A l ton t t (11.4)
Trong trng hp khng c lng nhp khu gia qi = 0.

n d

ai dt + bi Q = Q0

i =1

(10.17)

v nu nh cc b tuyn tnh nh nhau:

n

a + b Q = Q0 .
dt

(10.18)

141

2. m t tc dng iu tit lu vc thng s dng k thut mc ni tip - song song n b tuyn

tnh, tng trng cho cc tng t dn nc khc nhau:
Q0 = R0 - lng cp nc trn b mt lu vc.
n

Q = Qi - lu lng nc ti mt ct ca ra lu vc.
1

Ri - lu lng ra ti b Ai nhng vo b Ai+1 tng trng cho s thm.

Qi - lu lng ra khi b Ai tng trng cho dng chy mt.

Hot ng ca tng b Ai c m t bi phng trnh:

dWi
= Ri 1 Qi Ri
dt

Qi = Ci Wi
Ri = i Wi .

(10.19)
(10.20)

Q0=R0

A1

A2

Q1

Q2
Q

A3

Q3

An

Qn

Hnh 10.3. S mc ni tip - song song cc b

Qu trnh iu tit trn ton lu vc c m t bi h phng trnh tuyn tnh:

ai
a1 =

1
,
c1

dQi
i= 1,2,3,..., n
+ bi Qi = Qi 1
dt
c
c (c + i )
c +
b1 = 1 1 vi ai = i 1 , bi = i 1 i
.
c1
ci i 1
ci i 1

Nh vy tng t thut ton trnh by trn c th vit:

142

(10.21)
(10.22)

d
a1 + b1 Q1 = Q0

dt

a1 dt + b1 a 2 dt + b2 Q2 = Q0

.................................................

i
d

b
Q
Q
a
=
+
0
k i
k dt

k =1
................................................

n d

=
b
Q
Q
a
+

k
k
n
0

dt

k
1
=

(10.23)

Nhn hai v ca (n-1) phng trnh u ca (10.23) vi ton t dng:

k = i +1

d
+ bk )
dt

(a k

ri tin hnh cng tt c . Phng trnh (10.23) s c:

n

(a
k =1

d
k dt + bk ) ( Q1

( ak

k= 2

Nhng v: Q =

+ Q2 + ... + Qn ) =
n

d
+ bk )
dt

( ak

k=3

d
+ bk )
dt

+ ... + ( an

d
+ bn )
dt

+ 1 Q0

(10.24)

ta c:

( ak

k =1

d
+ bk ) Q
dt

n 1 n
( ak
=

j
=
1
k = +1

d
+ bk + 1) Q0
dt

Trong vic m phng s iu tit ca lu vc do mi quan h (10.22), cc b ch c th tng t nhau

t b th hai tr i:
ai=a; bi=b i=2,3,...,n.

Trong trng hp ny:

d
d
( a1 + b1 )( a + b) n 1 Q
dt
dt

n
d
(a
=
dt

j =1

+ b)

j Q .

(10.25)

10.2.2. Hm nh hng. Biu thc ton hc lp m hnh tuyn tnh

T l thuyt phng trnh vi phn tuyn tnh tnh o hm thng thy rng nghim ca phng trnh
(10.3) tho mn nhng iu kin ban u: Q(t0) = Q0,Q'(t0) = .... = Q0(n-1) c th biu din di dng:

~
Q(t ) = Q (t ) + Q (t )

(10.26)

trong :

~
Q (t ) - nghim ca phng trnh thun nht
143

Q (t ) - nghim ring ca phng trnh khng thun nht tho mn iu kin ban u bng 0.
Q(t0) Q'(t0) Q(n-1)(t0) 0.

Do tnh cht tuyn tnh Q (t ) c th biu din di dng mt t hp tuyn tnh ca n nghim ring
ca phng trnh thun nht.
n
~
Q (t ) = C k Qk (t )

(10.27)

k =1

trong Ck - cc hng s c xc nh bi iu kin ban u qua vic gii h phng trnh i s tuyn
tnh sau:

C1Q1 (t 0 ) + C2 Q2 (t 0 ) + ... + Cn Qn (t 0 ) = Q0

C1Q'1 (t 0 ) + C2 Q' 2 (t 0 ) + ... + Cn Q' n (t 0 ) = Q'0

.
L L LL L L L

( n 1)
( n 1)
( n 1)
( n 1)
C1Q (t 0 ) + C2 Q (t 0 ) + ... + Cn Q (t 0 ) = Q0

(10.28)

nh thc ma trn h s v tri l nh thc Vronski ti t0:

Q1 (t 0 )
= Q'1 (t 0 )
Q1

( n 1)

Q2 (t 0 )...

Qn (t 0 )

Q' 2 (t 0 )...

Q ' n (t 0 )

(t 0 ) Q2

( n 1)

(t 0 ) Qn

( n 1)

(10.29)

(t 0 )

Do cc nghim Qi (t ) (i=1,2,...,n) c lp tuyn tnh nn h lun lun tn ti mt nghim duy nht c

th xc nh theo cng thc Crame:

Ck =

k
,

trong k l nh thc nhn c t nh thc Vronski sau khi thay ct th k trong (10.29) bng ct cc
iu kin ban u:

Q0

Q' 0
K
( n1)
Q

0
Trong ton hc chng minh, vi iu kin ban u bng 0, phng trnh ph tr ca (10.3) c
dng:

Q( P) =

L ( P )
L ( P )

q( P)

trong : P = a + ib (a>0) - mt s phc;

L(P)=nPn + n-1Pn-1 + ... + 1P + 0
L(P)=nPn + n-1Pn-1 +...+ 1P + 0
Q( P) Q( t) v q( P) q( t)

c ngha l Q(P) v q(P) l cc to hnh ca Q(t) v q(t) nhn c bng bin i Laplace:

144

(10.30)

Q( P ) = e P.t Q(t )dt

0

q ( P ) = e P.t q (t )dt .
0

Hm P ( P) =

L ( P )
L ( P )

c gi l hm truyn, v(10.30) c vit di dng:

Q(P)=P(P).q(P)

(10.31)

T (10.31) suy ra:

t

P ( t )q ( ) d

Q(P)

v theo nh l v nguyn bn duy nht ta c:

t

Q (t ) =

P ( t )q ( ) d

(10.32)

Biu thc (10.32) c gi l tch phn Duhamel v cng chnh l nghim ring ca phng trnh
vi phn tuyn tnh khng thun nht vi cc iu kin ban u bng 0.
Q (t ) =

P ( t )q ( ) d

(10.33)

t0

Hm P(t-) trong (10.32) c gi l hm nh hng v l nguyn bn ca hm truyn P(P):

L ( P )

P (t )

L ( P )

= P( P) .

Trong qu trnh xy dng m hnh hm truyn P(P) lun lun c th xc nh c d dng v sau
s dng bng tra to hnh - nguyn bn ca php bin i Laplace xc nh hm nh hng P(t).
M hnh hm tuyn tnh u c dng chung l:
Q (t ) =

i
Q (t ) +

P ( t )q ( ) d

(10.34)

t0

Biu thc (10.34) l dng tng qut ca tt c m hnh "hp en". Cc m hnh "hp en" c phn
bit vi nhau bi:
1. Dng gii tch hm nh hng P(t-);
2. Cch xc nh hm nh hng;
3. Cch xt Qi (t).
Vi chc nng ca mnh m hnh "hp en" m t qu trnh chy iu tit ca lng dn lu vc vi
nhng tng t khc nhau. Do vy ngy nay m hnh "hp en" l b phn khng th thiu c trong cc
m hnh "quan nim" s hnh thnh dng chy.

10.3. GII THIU CC M HNH HP EN TRONG TNH TON THY VN

10.3.1. M hnh Kalinhin - Miuliakp - Nash
Nm 1958, khi nghin cu s lan truyn sng x h lu cc trm thy in, G.P.Kalinhin v

145

P.I.Miuliakov chia on sng ra n on nh di tn gi "cc on sng c trng".

Cc on sng c trng c chn c di sao cho tn ti mi quan h n tr tuyn tnh gia
lng nc trong n vi lu lng chy ra.
Nh vy thc cht "on sng c trng" l mt b tuyn tnh, m c ch hot ng c m t bi:
dWi
= Qi 1 Qi
dt
Wi = iQi

trong i - thng s mang ngha thi gian chy truyn trn "on sng chy truyn c trng th i".
Hai phng trnh trn tng ng vi mt phng trnh:

dQi
+ Qi
dt

i 1

Nh vy ton t Ai trong trng hp ny c dng:

d
A =
+ 1 vi ai =i, bi=1.
i
i dt
Mc ni tip n "on sng c trng" tng t nhau, phng trnh (10.17) tr thnh:
n

d
1 +1 Q = Q
0 vi i=1 v bi=1.
dt

Cc nghim ring ca phng trnh thun nht c dng:

Qi (t ) = t i 1 e

v hm nh hng tr thnh:

1 t

P (t ) =

(
1
)!
1
1

n 1

(10.35)

Cng thc tng t cng c Nash tm ra khi gi thit rng lu vc c cu to t n b cha tuyn
tnh vi quan h n tr - tuyn tnh gia th tch nc v lu lng.
Nh phn tch, hm nh hng Kalinhin - Miuliacp - Nash c hai thng s n v l trng hp
ring ca hm nh hng 3 thng s. Vic a thm thng s b vo lm hm nh hng "do" hn, ngoi
vic d thch nghi vi vic xt tc dng iu tit ca lng sng, cn kh nng xt c cn cn nc (cc
tn tht bc hi, mt nc...).

10.3.2. ng lu lng n v
Phng php ln u tin do Sherman ngh vo nm 1932, sau ny c nhiu tc gi khc pht
trin v hon thin. Ni dung ca phng php da trn 3 lun im:
a. ng qu trnh lu lng, c hnh thnh t lng ma hiu qu 1 in (25,4 mm) ri u trn
khp khu vc trong mt n v thi gian, l c trng khng i ca mt khu vc. (ng qu trnh
c gi l ng lu lng n v).
b. ng qu trnh lu lng, c hnh thnh t n in ri u trn khp lu vc trong mt n v
thi gian, c th nhn c bng cch nhn tung ng lu lng n v vi n.

146

c. ng qu trnh lu lng, c hnh thnh t lng ma hiu qu ri u trn khp lu vc trong

1 s n v thi gian, c th nhn c bng cch cng cc ng qu trnh c hnh thnh do lng ma
trong tng n v thi gian.
Phn tch 3 lun im trn thy rng chng hon ton tng ng vi nguyn l xp chng v vic
tnh dng chy ti mt ct ca ra t qu trnh ma hiu qu vi iu kin n v thi gian t 0 hon ton
theo biu thc:
t

Q (t ) =

P ( t )q ( ) d

t0

trong P(t-) - ng lu lng n v; q() - qu trnh ma hiu qu.

Nh vy, thc cht ng qu trnh lu lng n v l hnh nh ca hm nh hng trong m hnh
"hp en" v chng c phn bit vi cc m hnh "hp en" khc bi tnh c o ring bit trong vic
xc nh hm nh hng thng qua ng lu lng n v.
Cch n gin nht xc nh ng lu lng n v c rt ra t chnh nh ngha ca n: Chn
nhng trn l do lng ma ri u trong mt n v thi gian, ri chia tng tung cho tng lng l.

10.4. NGUYN L XY DNG M HNH "QUAN NIM" DNG CHY

Cch tip cn trong vic xy dng m hnh "quan nim" l cch tip cn thng s ho:
1. Cho dy cc s liu quan trc v ma X(t) v dng chy mt ct ca ra

lu vc Q(t).

2. Cn tm ton t chuyn i tt nht t ma ra dng chy.

Cu trc ca ton t cng cc thng s ca n, ni chung l khng c sn.
Tuy nhin, trong hc thuyt dng chy c nhng c s l thuyt v thc nghim v s hnh thnh
dng chy ni chung v trn 1 s lu vc c th. iu dn n hnh thnh 1 s thng tin v cc lp ton
t cn thit cng phm vi bin i cc thng s ca chng (l thuyt thm, tch ng, nh hng ca rng,
dng chy sn dc, chy ngm v.v...).
Xy dng m hnh gm 2 giai on:
- Thit lp cu trc m hnh
- Xc nh thng s m hnh.

10.4.1. Xy dng cu trc m hnh

y l khu xc nh nhng quan h ton hc m t din bin hin tng.
Trong cng vic ny, nh m hnh phi rt am hiu hin tng, hiu r nhng tc ng chnh n din
bin hin tng v c tr tng tng phong ph khi qut ho hin tng. Khi thit lp cu trc m
hnh hnh thnh dng chy, cn phc tho s khi v tng qu trnh thnh phn cng s tc ng tng
h gia chng.
Trong m hnh Stanford-4, nc c th c trao i theo hai chiu: i xung v i ln. Vi mt s
m hnh khc, nc ch c mt chiu i xung (m hnh SSARR). Nt chung ca cc m hnh quan nim l
u s dng cc b cha m t cc dng tn tht v iu tit khc nhau, do vy, phng trnh tnh ton
ch o trong m hnh l phng trnh cn bng nc. Vic a ra b cha ngm vo m hnh cho php
m hnh m t c c phn dng chy ma kit.

147

Ni chung, s hnh thnh dng chy trn cc lu vc c th rt khc nhau, do vy khng c mt m

hnh vn nng no dng cho tt c mi trng hp. Nh thit k m hnh phi nm vng hin tng c th
c s ci bin cn thit.
Ni chung, khi thit lp m hnh hnh thnh dng chy cn cp v gii quyt nhng vn sau:
1. Vn ma trn lu vc (hm vo): c cn hiu chnh s liu ma ti cc im (bng thng
hoc my t ghi)? Nu cn, cch hiu chnh. C cn hiu chnh s phn phi khng u ca ma theo
khng gian? Nu cn, cch hiu chnh?
2. Vn tn tht do thm thc vt, do tch ng trn mt lu vc, do thm, cch xt tc ng ca
m ban u. Nhng gi thit no v din bin qu trnh thm, c xt n c tnh ca tng th nhng? Nu
c, nh th no?
3. C xt n tn tht do bc hi? Nu c, cch xt (vi chi tit no xt n cc yu t kh tng:
tc gi, nhit khng kh, thiu ht bo ha v.v...).
4. Cch tch qu trnh dng chy ngm ra khi dng chy tng cng ti mt ct ca ra lu vc?
5. C xt dng chy st mt (nu c, cch xt)? C xt lng nc hi quy t tng th nhng vo
sng?
6. C xt tnh hung dng chy khng phi c hnh thnh ln ton b din tch lu vc (c nhng
ch trng khp kn) nu c, bng cch tnh din tch hiu qu?
7. Cch xt chuyn ng sng l trong mng sng-s giao thoa ca sng l trn dng chnh vi cc
sng nhnh, s bt sng l v.v...
8. Bng cch no xt c mt b phn trn ng qu trnh lu lng c gy ra bi lng nc
tn li ca trn l trc v.v...
Gii quyt nhng vn nu trn, thit lp nhng cng thc m t qu trnh, ng thi lun lun phi
suy xt: Nhng i lng no trong cc cng thc cho di dng nhng gi tr s xc nh, nhng i
lng no c th c tnh theo nhng cng thc vt l v nhng i lng no ng vai tr thng s cn
phi xc nh nh nhng ti liu quan trc vo - ra. Ch sau khi gii quyt nhng vn nu trn mi c th
thit lp mt cu trc ca m hnh. Cn ch rng m hnh ton dng chy l mt chnh th thng nht,
cc qu trnh thnh phn lin quan vi nhau mt cch mt thit v hu c, do vy xt nh hng ca mt
qu trnh no n dng chy ch c th lm c sau khi xy dng trn vn m hnh. Ngoi ra cc
nhn t hnh thnh dng chy rt bin ng theo khng gian. Nu c c ch hot ng v s liu quan trc
ca mt qu trnh no ti mt im, th khng th chuyn rp khun cho ton khu vc (Vai tr ca tng
qu trnh thnh phn bin i t im ny sang im khc, t lu vc ny sang lu vc khc). iu ny
dn n vic la chn cu trc m hnh quan nim mang tnh m mm, cm nhn. iu ny cng ct ngha
v sao vic lp ghp nhng kt qu nghin cu hin i v tng qu trnh thnh phn (ma, thm, bc hi,
im trng, dng mt, st mt, ngm v.v...) ca nhiu tc gi khc nhau mong c c mt m hnh tt
tht bi. iu ny cng cho thy v sao cc m hnh quan nim khc xa nhau c v cu trc ln s liu
ban u s dng.
Do vy vic xy dng m hnh mang y tnh sng to cng vi vic am hiu tng tn hin tng
trn tng lu vc c th.

10.4.2. Xc nh thng s m hnh

Cc m hnh thng s tp trung u cha ng nhiu thng s cn c xc nh trn c s nhng ti
liu quan trc vo-ra ca h thng. V mt ton hc, c hai phng trnh thit lp thng s m hnh:

148

phng php ti u ho v phng php gii bi ton ngc. Phng php thng dng trong thc t hin
nay l kh-sai c coi l phng n th s nht ca phng php ti u ho.
1. Phng php ti u ho. y l bi ton thun, cho bit thng s vo v b thng s m hnh, cn
xc nh hm ra ca h thng. Thc cht ti u ho l bi ton iu khin h thng. Mc tiu iu khin l
hm ra phi ng vi tn hiu o c, cn bin iu khin l chnh vc t thng s m hnh.

Cn phi xc nh biu thc ton hc ca mc tiu:

K =

[Q (t ) Q (t , a ) ]
n

fQ (t ) dt min

(10.36)

i =1 0

trong : n - tng s trn l, T - thi gian mt trn l,

~
Q(t ), Q(t , a) - cc qu trnh o c v tnh ton,

a=(a1, a2, am) - vc t thng s m hnh.

Hm f(Q(t) c a vo nhm tng t trng nhng tung l ln (nhl). Cn xc nh vc t a

hm mc tiu K t cc tiu. Ngy nay c nhiu thut ton ti u mnh tm cc tr ca nhng
phim hm mc tiu phc tp. Mt trong nhng thut ton thng dng l thut ton Rosenbroc. Nhng
y, bn thn nhng phng php ton hc khng gii quyt s chnh xc ca nhng thng s cng nh s
thnh cng ca qu trnh ti u ho. Mt ln na, chng ta thy ni ln vai tr cng nhng kinh nghim v
s hiu bit hin tng vt l ca ngi thit lp m hnh. Sau y trnh by nhng kinh nghim c tnh
nguyn tc trong vic iu hnh qu trnh ti u.
a) Nguyn tc la chn s liu. Trong qu trnh ti u, mt s thng s t ra khng nh hng g ti
hm mc tiu. Nguyn nhn chnh ca hin tng ny l trong nhng s liu dng ti u, cha c nhng
s liu xc nh r rt vai tr ca cc thng s. khc phc tnh trng ny, nhng s liu dng trong qu
trnh ti u phi bao gm nhng trn l c iu kin hnh thnh ht sc khc nhau: ln, nh, dng.
chnh xc ca cc thng s ph thuc nhiu vo chnh xc, mc i biu v khi lng ca nhng ti
liu ban u. Nhng trn l khng tin cy s gy ra nhng sai lch ng k cho tng thng s ring bit.
Do vy, ti u phi chn nhng trn l c tin cy cao nht.
b) Nguyn tc tin hnh: c hai cch tin hnh qu trnh ti u:
Cch 1: Ti u ring r tng trn l, c cc b thng s khc nhau, sau ly b thng s trung
bnh cho tt c cc trn.
Cch 2: Tin hnh ti u ng thi cho nhiu trn l, c mt b thng s chung cho tt c cc trn
l. Kinh nghim cho thy hai cch ti u ny cho kt qu rt khc nhau. Vi tng trn l, lun lun tm
c mt thng s thch hp. Do c th ring ca tng trn l, mt s thng s c th b sai lch. iu
ny dn n cc b thng s ca cc trn l rt khc nhau. m bo ngha ca cc thng s, m bo
bn vng, n nh ca chng, ti u phi s dng nhiu trn l. Kinh nghim cho thy s liu dng
ti u khng t hn 5 qu trnh dng chy khc nhau.
c) Nguyn tc phc tp ho dn m hnh, do gio s Kuchmen ra. Thc cht ca n l vic ti u
ho c tin hnh theo tng giai on. Trong b thng s m hnh, trng lng ca tng thng s khng
ng u nhau, tnh cht ca cc thng s cng khng ging nhau, c thng s nh hng ti nh, c
thng s ch nh hng n tng lng, c thng s nh hng ti nhnh ln, c thng s nh hng ti
nhnh xung... Tht sai lm nu a tt c nhng thng s vo ti u cng mt lc. Vic phc tp ho
dn cu trc m hnh c bt u bng vic th nghim m hnh n gin nht, bao gm cc thng s ti
thiu. Trn c s ti u c cc thng s , m hnh s c chnh xc ho nh vic a dn thm
cc thng s mi, m t chnh xc thm hin tng. tng giai on, cc thng s c ti u mt cch

149

c lp trn c s cc thng s ca giai on trc nhn nhng tr s ban u bng cc tr s c ti

u.
2. Phng php gii bi ton ngc. y l bi ton bit cc thng tin vo - ra ca h thng, cn xc
nh b thng s m hnh. Tnh cht ca bi ton ny l phi chnh, c ngha l nhng sai s khng ln lm
ca s liu ban u (dng gii bi ton ngc) s dn n nhng sai s rt ln ca nhng i lng cn
xc nh. Th d khi gii bi ton thun, nhng c trng ca lu vc ( dc, sn dc, kh nng thm
ca t, thm thc vt, a hnh b mt lu vc v.v) rt bin ng theo khng gian; chng cn phi c
trung bnh ho theo mt cch no v cch trung bnh ho ny d sao cng t nh hng ti kt qu tnh
ton - dng chy mt ct ca ra lu vc.

Khi gii bi ton ngc, nhng thay i nh trong s liu ban u (qu trnh dng chy) c th tng
ng vi nhng thay i rt ln ca cc c trng lu vc, do vy cng nh hng rt ln n cc thng s
m hnh. Trong nhng nm 70, nhng nh ton hc X Vit Tikhnp, Lavrenchev, Ivanov xy dng l
thuyt bi ton phi chnh. Nhng cng trnh ton hc ny mi ch dng vic gii phng trnh Volte bc
mt. Gio s Kuchmen vn dng l thuyt ny trong vic xc nh cc thng s ca hm nh hng
Kalinhin-Miuliakp-Nash.
Nh vy, l thuyt ton phi chnh mi ch p dng c trong m hnh tuyn tnh n gin nht, vn
dng nhng m hnh n gin quan nim, ngoi nhng thnh tu trn, l thuyt ny cha p ng c.

10.5. GII THIU M HNH QUAN NIM

10.5.1. M hnh TANK
M hnh TANK ra i nm 1956 ti Trung tm Quc gia Phng chng l lt Nht, tc gi l M.
Sugawar. T n nay m hnh c hon thin dn v ng dng rng ri nhiu ni trn th gii.
Cu trc m hnh Tank

Lu vc c din t nh mt chui cc b cha sp xp theo 2 phng thng ng v nm ngang.

Gi thit c bn ca m hnh l dng chy cng nh dng thm v cc hm s ca lng nc tr trong cc
tng t. M hnh c hai dng cu trc n v kp.
1. M hnh TANK n
Dng ny khng xt s bin i ca m t theo khng gian, ph hp vi nhng lu vc nh trong
vng m t quanh nm.
Lu vc c din t bi bn b cha xp theo chiu thng ng. Mi b cha c mt hoc mt vi
ca ra thnh bn v mt ca ra y. Lng ma ri xung mt t i vo b trn cng. Sau khi khu tr
tn tht bc hi mt phn s thm xung b di theo ca ra y, mt phn cung cp cho dng chy
trong sng theo cc ca ra thnh bn.
Quan h gia lng dng chy qua cc ca vi lng m trong cc b l tuyn tnh:
Y = (X-H),

(10.37)

Y0 = .X.

(10.38)

trong :, -h s ca ra thnh bn v y, H- cao ca ra thnh bn.

Theo cu trc trn, m hnh TANK m phng cu trc m trong cc tng t ca lu vc. Lng dng
chy hnh thnh t cc b th hin c tnh cc thnh phn dng chy mt, st mt v dng chy ngm.
Dng chy hnh thnh t tt c cc b cha m t s bin dng dng chy do tc dng iu tit ca dng
sng l lp nc c sn ban u trong sng.

150

2. H thc c bn ca m hnh
a) Ma bnh qun lu vc (P)
n

i =1

i =1

P = Wi .x1 / Wi

(10.39)

Trong : n-s im o ma; Xi lng ma ti im th i, Wi - trng s ca im ma th i. Theo

M.Sugawara Wi s c trn l mt trong bn s sau: 0,25; 0,5; 0,75; 1,0.
b) Bc hi lu vc (E)

0,8 EVT
0,75(0,8 EVT h f ) + h f
E=

0,6 EVT

khi XA PS E 0
khi XA PS E < 0
v XA PS H f > 0
XA < PS.

(10.40)

c) C cu truyn m b cha trn cng c chia lm hai phn: trn v di, gia chng xy ra s
trao i m. Tc truyn m t di ln T1 v trn xung T2 c tnh theo cng thc:
XA
(10.41)
)TB
T1 = TB0 + (1
PS
XS
(10.42)
T2 = TC 0 + (1
)TC
SS

trong : XS, SS - lng m thc v lng m bo ha phn di b A; TBo, TB, TCo, TC-cc thng s
truyn m, theo MSugawar, chng nhn nhng gi tr:
TB = TB0 = 3 mm/ ngy m,
TC = 1mm/ ngy m,
TC0 = 0,5mm/ ngy m.
d) Dng chy t b A. Lng nc i vo b A l ma (P). Dng chy qua cc ca bn (YA1, YA2) v
ca y (YA0) c xc nh theo cc cng thc sau:
Hf XA + P-PS

(10.43)

YA0 = HfA0

(10.44)

( H f HA1 ); khi H f > HA1

YA1 =
0 khi H f HA1 .

(10.45)

3. Pht trin m hnh Tank trn nn tng hc thuyt m t v hc thuyt dng chy sn dc

Nh cc m hnh nhn thc khc, m hnh Tank cha mt lng thng s kh ln. Trong tc phm
ca M.Sugawar nhng thng s ny cha c miu t v mt vt l. Do vy, nh K.Linsley nhn nh,
m hnh ch c th c thit lp cho mt lu vc sau nhiu ln th sai. iu ny i hi ngi s dng
phi c kinh nghim v c mc am hiu m hnh nht nh. Phn ny gii thiu nhng hon thin m
hnh v mt vt l, nhm gip ngi s dng la chn thng s c c s v d dng hn.
B A m phng b mt lu vc v cc tng t trong vng thong, trong b A c t ra nhng mc m
khc nhau ca lu vc (HS, HA3, HA2, HA1, PS, SS).
Trong qu trnh chuyn ng trn mt lu vc hng v lng sng mt phn nc c gi li tm
thi trn sn dc.
Hin nhin c th gi nh rng nhng phn khc nhau trong b A m phng nhng dng tr nc
khc nhau trn mt sn dc.

151

Theo cc kt qu th nghim ca I.X. Vaxiliep v A.P. Ivanop, sau khi ti bo ha cho t, phn phi
m theo chiu thng ng c dng nh sau: phn di ca tng th nhng c m kh cao, gn t
m ton phn (ATP), v rng n thuc tng mao dn. Ln trn, m gim dn v cch mt thong
ca nc ngm 1 khong no (cng ln khi thnh phn ht cng nng), m t mt tr s nh nht v
khng i m ng rung (AR). Nc cha trong tng th nhng khi m cha t n m
ng rung lun trong trng thi treo v mt kh nng chy xung di.
Dng nh, lng m cha trong tng th nhng bo ha n m ng rung khng c kh nng
di chuyn. Nhng thc t khng nh vy. Cc kt qu nghin cu ca A.F. Bonsacop, M.M. Abramva
khng nh trong qu trnh bc hi, lng m treo chuyn ng ln trn thnh dng, c ngha l c tnh lin
tc. Tnh lin tc tn ti khng ch vi m ng rung m cn c th nh hn nhiu. Nhng ch n mt
gii hn nht nh. M,M. Abramva gi m m lng m treo mt kh nng di chuyn ln trn di tc
dng ca bc hi l m gin on mao dn hay cn gi l m cy ho (ACH).
Gi nh "phn di" ca b A (hnh 10.4) m phng tng t t st mt sn dc n gii hn trn
ca tng mao dn (TMD). l vng m treo. Bn cht vt l ca thng s SS - m ng rung
(AR). Bn cht ca lng m XS - nc mao dn. C ch duy nht tiu hao lng m XS l bc hi:
(DACH) XS SS (DADR).

(10.46)

P E

A3

A2

XAHA3

A1
HA2
HA1
PS
SS

XS
A0

QCH
B1

XB
HB
B0
CH2

C1

XC

XCH

HC

C0
CH

XD

D1

Hnh 10.4. M hnh TANK n

152

CH1

Hiu s SS - XS xc nh lng tn tht khng hon li do t gi, v c thc hin bi qu trnh

truyn m t trn xung T2. Bn cht qu trnh l giai on u ca qu trnh thm (giai on thm khng
n nh). Giai on ny din ra kh nhanh. Nh vy qu trnh T2 ch l qu trnh truyn m t tng trn
xung tng di ca b A v kt thc khi tng di t n m ng rung, sau l qu trnh thm n
nh c thc hin qua cc ca y cc b. Bn cht cc lng m XB, XC, XD nc trng lc.
Ngay trn b mt sn dc tn ti mt lp mng t lng m thot i do bc hi v bc hi qua l.
Lp mng ny c m phng bi phn trn ca b A v c tnh ca n c nh gi bi thng s PS.
Thng s PS cn bao hm c lng nc in trng trn mt lu vc. Nu khng c lp nc in
trng, gi tr ca PS ch xp x lp bc hi trong thi on tnh ton t. Bn cht qu trnh truyn m t
di ln T1 l qu trnh bc thot hi nc t cc tng t khc nhau thng qua con ng mao dn. y l
im tng t ca m hnh TANK vi m hnh Stanford.4, khi cho rng lng nc trong cc tng t c
s trao i hai chiu.
Qu trnh T1 khng xy ra khi v ch khi:
XA PS + E

(10.47)

c ngha l khi lng m lm bo ha phn trn b A, in trng v bc hi. Ngun m cung cp cho qu
trnh T2 l XA, ngun cung cp cho qu trnh T1 ly t cc b B, C, D(XB, XC, XD).
Nh vy 5 qu trnh trao i m theo phng thng ng u c th xy ra song song, mi qu trnh
u c nhng iu kin tn ti ring, quy lut din bin ring, chng b sung m cho nhau hoc tiu hao
m ca nhau:
S1
S2
S3
S4

QCH

Hnh 10.5. M hnh TANK kp

. Ma
. Bc hi

153

. Thm qua cc ca y
. Truyn m ln T1
. Truyn m xung T2
Trong cc dng tn tht cn cha cp n vai tr ca thm ph thc vt. Hon ton hp l nu cho
rng thng s HA1 m nhn chc nng .
Dng chy mt ch xut hin khi XA > PS + HA1 thng s HA2, HA3, xc nh c im cu to ring
bit ca sn dc v khng c ngha vt l c nh, biu thc (PS + HA1 - XA + SS - XS) xc nh lp tn
tht ban u.Gi tr ca HA1, xp x vi lp nc ma khng gy ra l v iu ny hon ton c th xc
nh c khi i chiu qu trnh ma v qu trnh dng chy.
Cc thng s HB, HC, HD nh gi cc tn tht ban u trn cc tng khng thm tng i. Theo s
nghin cu ca gio s A. N.Bephany cng cc cng s ca ng, qu trnh thm qua tng khng thm
tng i trit gim rt nhanh theo thi gian. S thm n nh t c ch sau 15 -30 pht ngay c trong
trng hp cc tng t hon ton kh. Trong thc t thi on tnh ton t thng ln hn nhiu thi gian
ny v iu cho php coi HB, HD l cc hng s. Gi tr ca HB, HC, HD ch vo khong vi mm.
Trong m hnh, tc dng iu tit ca sn dc t ng c xt thng qua cc b cha xp theo
chiu thng ng. Nhng hiu qu ca tc ng ny khng mnh v c th coi tng dng chy qua cc
ca bn ca b YA2 + YA1 + YB2 + YC1 + YD1 ch l lp cp nc ti mt im. y l mt yu im ca
m hnh TANK so vi cc m hnh khc nh SSARR. Bn thn tc gi M.Sugawara nhn thc r iu ny
v khc phc n bng cch cho php dch chuyn nhn to nh l i mt thi gian T.
C th s dng thm mt b cha tuyn tnh XK m phng tc ng iu tit sn dc. Nh vy,
tng dng chy (YA2 + YA1 + YB2 + YC1 + YD1) trc khi vo b iu tit lng sng CH phi qua b iu
tit sn dc XK. C ch hot ng ca b XK nh sau:
Tnh lp cp nc ti mt im ti thi im:
CK (I) = YA 2 + YA1 +YB2 + YC1 + YD1 ,

(10.48)

QCH = XK1 . CK (I-1) + XK2 . CK (I) + XK3 . QCH,

(10.49)

trong XK1, XK2, XK3 l cc thng s v m bo iu kin XK1 + XK2 + XK3 = 1. Hin nhin, nu trong
(10.49) cho XK2 = 1; XK1 = XK3 = 0 th b XK mt tc dng v tr li nguyn bn m hnh TANK ban
u.
4. M hnh TANK kp

Trong cu trc kp c s bin i m ca t theo khng gian nh hnh 10.5. Lu vc c chia

thnh cc vnh ai c m khc nhau. Mt vnh ai c din t bng mt m hnh TANK n. V
nguyn tc s lng vnh ai c th bt k, trong thc t tnh ton thng ly 4 vnh ai, mi vnh ai c 4
b, tng cng ton m hnh cha 16 b. Vi s m phng ny trn ton lu vc c nhng phn m, phn
kh bin i theo quy lut nht nh. Khi ma bt u, phn lu vc m t s pht trin t khu hp ven
sng lan dn n nhng vng cao hn theo th t S4, S3, S2, S1 (Si biu th vnh ai th i so vi ton lu
vc).
Ngc li khi ma kh bt u, do lng m cung cp t dn hoc khng c, lu vc s kh dn bt
u t nhng vnh ai cao nht n vnh ai thp hn theo th t S1, S2, S3, S4. Trong cu trc kp, lp
nc t do trong mi b c chuyn ng theo hai hng: thng ng v nm ngang. Mi b cha nhn
c nc t pha b trn cng vnh ai v t pha tri cng tng. Trong dng ny, m hnh c thm cc
thng s Si (i = 1, 2, 3, 4).

154

5. Chin lc d tm thng s

Trong hi ngh quc t v l v tnh ton l (15-12 thng 8 - 1976, Leningrat) M. Sugawara nhn nh:
" Do cu trc phi tuyn vi cc b cha sp xp theo chiu thng ng, cha c phng php ton hc hu
hiu no xc nh cc thng s ca m hnh TANK, cch duy nht l th sai". Quan im ny c mt
s nh ng dng tn ng.
Phng php th sai khng gy kh khn g ln i vi nhng ngi c kinh nghim s dng m
hnh. Nhng i vi nhng ai cha quen m hnh, khi s dng cch th sai s rt lng tng v gp phi kh
khn. Gio s L. C. Kuchmen v V.I.Koren cng by t rng m hnh TANK hin nay c coi l mt
trong nhng m hnh tt nht, nhng do c qu nhiu thng s, trong c nhng thng s c phn nghn
(0.001) gy phn e ngi v kh khn vi ngi s dng cha quen m hnh. Ngoi cch th sai, cn thit
phi xy dng nhng thut ton khch quan d tm thng s. Nm 1979, M. Sugawara xut phng
php "la chn t ng thng s m hnh". S la chn t ng c thc hin khng phi bng cc
phng php ti u ho (tm kim cc tr phim hm mc tiu) m bng cch th sai, nhng c thc
hin t ng trn my tnh. Nm 1984 chng ti vn dng phng php ti u ho Rosenbroc kt hp vi
nguyn l "phc tp ho dn m hnh" do gio s L.C.Kuchmen xut.
a) Phng php th sai

Phng php th sai i hi ngi s dng phi nm vng tnh nng hot ng ca tng thng s.
Ton b cc thng s ca m hnh TANK c th chia lm 2 loi: thng s c th nguyn (HS, PS, SS, HA3,
HA2, HA1, HB, HC, HD, H, TB, TB0,TC, TC0) v thng s khng th nguyn (A1, A2, A3, A0, B1, B0, C1, C0,
D1, D0, XK1, XK2, XK3, CH4, CH2). Hin nhin l cc thng s th nguyn s thay i theo thi on tnh
ton t. Bn cht ca cc thng s ny l cc thng s tn tht, khi kt hp vi cc thng s ca y s gy
nn hiu qu tr trong qu trnh dng chy. Cc thng s ca bn (A1, A2, A3, B1, C1, D1) trc tip tc ng
n ln nh l, trong A1, A2, A3 tc ng n cc nh l ln.
Tnh nng hot ng ca cc thng s ca bn v cc thng s ca y c th c m t tng qut
nh sau:
- lm thay i dng ng qu trnh, cn phi iu chnh (+). Th d, mun ng qu trnh
nhn hn, phi tng (+) v ngc li.
- lm thay i tng lng dng chy trn l, cn iu chnh /(+). Th d, mun lm tng lng
dng chy m khng bin i dng qu trnh, cn phi tng v gim , gi (+) khng i v ngc li.
Trong qu trnh th sai, phi lun lun theo di s cn bng nc hp l trong tng b. Lng m
trong tng b (XA, XS, XB, XC, XD, XCH) lin tc bin i trong qu trnh tnh ton, sau mt chu k cc
lng m ny phi t c nhng tr s hp l.
Th d, chu k hot ng ca b nc ngm D l mt nm (t cui ma kit nm nay n u ma l
nm sau), sau mt nm hot ng, XD cui ma kit phi t tr s hp l ph hp vi phng trnh cn
bng nc vit cho mt nm (X =Y + Z U). Chnh lch gia XD u v cui nm phi ph hp vi
U. Trong c mt chui nm hot ng XD khng c nh hn mt gi tr tng ng vi mt lu lng
dng ngm n nh. Nu b D c xu hng tr nhiu hn tho, XD s c xu th ln dn theo thi gian,
dng chy kit cc nm cng v sau cng ln v ngc li. Bt k s ph v cn bng nc no trong cc
b u dn n s khng n nh ca b thng s v s bt hp l trong thnh phn dng mt, dng st mt
v dng ngm. Khi tin hnh th sai, cn phi nm c y cc thng tin v cc thnh phn dng chy,
v cc thnh phn trong phng trnh cn bng nc tng b, ng lc cc din bin cng nguyn nhn gy
ra s mt cn bng, t c sch lc hiu chnh thch hp. Cc b C, B, A s c cc chu k hot ng

155

ngn hn. Ngay trong b A chu k hot ng ca phn trn v phn di rt khc nhau. Phn trn ca chu
k tng ng vi thi gian mt trn l, phn di c chu k hot ng xp x mt nm. Nu thy XS sau
khi t n trng thi bo ha SS ri khng thay i na th chng t PS chn qu ln, lng m trong
phn trn lun lun bc hi.
b) La chn t ng thng s m hnh theo M. Sugawara

Ch ny ch p dng i vi cc thng s ca bn v ca y. Thot u, cc thng s ca bn v

ca y nhn nhng gi tr sau: A1 = A2 = A0 = 0,2; B1 = B0 = 0,05; C1 = C0 = 0,01; D1 = 0,001. Quy c
k hiu dng chy qua cc ca bn A2, A1, B1, C1, D1 ln lt tng ng l Y1, Y2, Y3, Y4, Y5 (H.10.6).
A2
A1

Y1
Y2

A0
B1
Y3

B0

C1
Y4

C0

D1
Y5

Hnh 10.6. Dng chy t cc b A,B,C,D

Ton b qu trnh dng chy c chia lm 5 thi on 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 tng ng vi s hot ng ca 5

ca bn: A2, A1, B1, C1, D1. Quy tc chia thi on nh sau:
Thi on 1: Nhng ngy m dng chy qua ca A2 ng vai tr chnh s thuc thi on 1, ngha l
khi t s gia Y1vi tng dng chy ln hn C ( C - mt hng s).
Y1 C ( Y1 + Y2 + Y3 + Y4 + Y5) = CY

Thi on 2: khi
Y1 < CY v (Y1 + Y2) > CY.

Thi on 3: khi
(Y1 +Y2)< CY v(Y1 +Y2 + Y3) > CY.
Thi on 4: khi

156

(Y1 +Y2 + Y3) < CY v (Y1 +Y2 + Y3 + Y4) > CY.

Thi on 5: phn cn li.

C c th c chn trong cc gi tr sau: 0; 0,5; 0,25; 0,1; 0,05.

Gi tr C = 0,1 t ra tt i vi cc sng ca Nht. Trong tng thi on 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 tng lng dng

chy v hnh dng ng nc rt ca qu trnh thc o v tnh ton c nh gi bi cc tiu chun sau:

~
RQ( I ) = Q ( N ) / Q( N )
N

I = 1,...,5

~
~

log Q ( N 1) log Q ( N )
RD = N
I = 1,L ,5 .
1 log Q( N 1) log Q( N )

N
~
trong Q l lu lng thc o, Q l lu lng tnh ton, I l ch s ca cc thi on, N l s ngy ca
mi thi on I m c hiu s [Q(N-1) - Q(N)] dng.
Nguyn l ca vic t ng iu khin thng s nh sau:
- Khi RQ(I) > 1 RQ(I) < 1, phi gim (tng) thng s ca bn, v tng (gim) thng s ca y. Vic
ny c thc hin t ng bng cch chia thng s ca bn cho RQ(I ) v nhn thng s ca ca y
vi

RQ(I ) .

- Khi RD(I) > 1 RD(I) < 1, phi gim (tng) c hai thng s nh nhau. Vic iu khin ny c thc
hin bng cch chia c hai thng s ca bn cho RD(I). Nguyn l iu khin nu trn a n cc cng
thc iu khin sau:
A0=A0(( RQ (1) /RD(1) + ( RQ ( 2) /RD(2)).(1/2)

AM1 = A1/( RQ ( 2) .RD(2)).

A2 = (A1 + A2)/( RQ (1) .RD(1) - AM1
A1 = AM1
B0 = B0 RQ(3) / RD(3)
B1 = B1 / RQ(3) / RD(3)
C0 = C0 . RQ ( 4) / RD(4)
C1 = C1 / RQ ( 4) / RD(4)
D1 = D1/RD(5).
Cn kim tra lng nc c cung cp t cc b trn. Nu RQ(5) > 1, RQ(5) < 1, phi gim(tng)
cc thng s ca y ca cc b trn. S iu khin lng nc cung cp cho b D c thc hin bng
iu khin C0 ca b C, sau s bin i trong b C do vic iu khin C0 gy ra s c b tr bi cc
iu khin B0 v v.v.. Vi cch thc nh vy, s c cc cng thc iu khin tip sau:
C0 = C0/RD(5)
B0 = B0/ RQ( 5)
A0 = A0

RQ( 5) .

Trong mt s trng hp, gi tr ca RQ(I) v RD(I) c th rt khc 1. Khi xut hin nhng trng
hp , chng ta gii hn RQ(I) v RD(I) trong phm vi (1/2, 2) c ngha l gi tr RQ(I) v RD(I) ln hn

157

2 s c ly bng 2, v nhng gi tr nh hn 1/2 s c ly bng 1/2.

Trong qu trnh iu khin cn lu h iu khin nu trn c th khng hi t. C ngha l sau mt
vi ln tnh lp (thng c t hn 15 ln) kt qu thu c kh tt, nhng sau kt qu li ti i khng
phc hi li c. Mt trong nhng nguyn nhn l RD(I) chu tc ng ca nhiu yu t ngu nhin km
tin cy. gim tc ng ca RD(I) c th thay RD(I) = RD (I ) hoc RD(I) = 4 RD ( I ) . RD (5) l km tin
cy nht, do vic iu khin thng s b D phi rt thn trng. Rt nhiu trng hp RD(5) ph hng
ton b h iu khin thng s nu trn.
c) Ti u ho thng s m hnh
B thng s m hnh c thit lp theo phng php Rosenbroc vi hm mc tiu ca qu trnh iu
khin thng s nu trn.

K =

n T

[Q(t) Q(t, A)] dt min

2

i =1 0

Trong : n -s qu trnh a vo tt u; T -thi gian 1 qu trnh, A - vc t thng s c m s theo

bng sau:
A

10

11

12

T.S

A1

A2

A3

HA1

HA2

HA3

A0

B1

C1

D1

HB

HC

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

T.S

HD

B0

C0

D0

XK1

XK2

XK3

CH1

CH1

TB

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

T.S

TB0
T
C
TC0
PS
SS
KZ
XA
XS
XC
XD
XCH
Phng php ti u ho khng th thnh cng nu a tt c cc thng s vo ti u ng thi. y,
ti u ho c coi l th sai t ng theo hm mc tiu K vi thut ton Rossenbroc. iu c ngha l
thut ton ti u phi mm do cho php la chn c cc thng s mong mun a vo ti u, do vy
cc thng s u c gn nhn nh bng trn. Qu trnh ti u thng s m hnh phi tun theo nhng
nguyn tc c trnh by trn.
d) Mt s nhn xt
M hnh TANK c nhiu c quan nghin cu ng dng: Trng i hc Thy li, Vin Kh tng
- Thy vn, Vin Thit k Thy li Quc gia, Cng ty Kho st Thit k in 1, Cc D bo thy vn v.v..
Trong qu trnh ng dng ni ln mt s vn :
1. M hnh kh th hin s "tr" ca dng chy so vi ma. Vi c im ny, m hnh thch ng vi
cc lu vc nh. iu ny c th khc phc c bng cch ni tip thm mt s b tuyn tnh v knh
tuyn tnh biu din tc dng iu tit ca lu vc v lng sng. Hon ton c th s dng lp m hnh"
hp en" nu trn trong cng vic ny.
2. Do m hnh c cu to t cc b tuyn tnh, cc thng s ca ra trong mt s trng hp t ra
km nhy. Trn mt s lu vc, dng chy mt ng vai tr ng k (l ln nhanh, rt nhanh), c s phn
ho r rt trong s hnh thnh cc cp lu lng, qu trnh dng chy tng i nhy cm vi qu trnh
ma, nn s dng b nc mt (b A) di dng phi tuyn. Th d, ca A1 th l bc 2, ca A2, A3 c th l
s bc cao hn.

158

3. Xt iu kin ban u. Trong m hnh, tt c cc qu trnh thnh phn nh bc thot nc, tn tht
trn thm thc vt trao i m gia cc vng v cc b thm, in trng, thm thnh dng mt, dng st
mt, dng ngm, din ton l trn sn dc v trong sng c lin kt vi nhau thng qua vic bin i
cc m XA, XS, XB, XC, XD, XCH trong tng b. Rt quan trng vic xt cc m ny ti u thi k
tnh ton. Vic xt iu kin ban u c th tin hnh theo th php sau:
- xt cc m ban u trong phn trn, phn di b A (XA0, XS0) nn chn thi im ban u
tnh ton l lc t c bo ha, thiu ht m trong t coi nh bng 0 ( th d sau mt trn ma ln
gy l r rt). Trong nhng trng hp ny c th coi:
XA0 = PS + HA1,
XS0 = SS.
- C c s cho rng XA, XS c quan h vi m lu vc, do vy, trc thi im tnh ton,
XA0, XS0 c th c xc nh qua mi rng buc ca chng i vi m t theo gio s N.Ph. Befanhi:
Jw= x1 + 0,7x2-4 + 0,5x5-9 + 0,3x10-14 + 0,2x15-30 + 0,1x31-60
y, x1 - lng ma mt ngy trc thi im; x2-4 - lng ma trong ngy 2, 3, v 4 trc thi
im tnh ton v. v..
- nh gi m ban u trong cc b khc (XB0, XC0, XCH0) hon ton c th gi nh tn ti cc
mi quan h bn vng gia chng vi lu lng trc l Q0.
- m XD0 ban u thit lp theo v tr s Q0 bng cch tnh ngc sau khi bit XA0, XS0, XB0,
XC0, XCH0.

10.5.2. M hnh SSARR

M hnh SSARR do Rockwood xut t nm 1956. Khi xy dng m hnh ny ngi ta quan nim
rng h thng sng ngi d phc tp cng ch gm cc thnh phn c bn sau:
- Cc lu vc sng nh,
- Cc h cha t nhin v nhn to,
- Cc on sng.
Do ngi ta xy dng m hnh ton hc cho tng loi, sau cng tp hp li ta s c m hnh ton
hc ca c h thng sng. Cc m hnh ton hc thnh phn u s dng hai phng trnh c bn l
phng trnh lin tc v phng trnh tr lng.
Phng trnh lin tc l:
(1/2)[(I1 + I2)t] - (1/2)[(Q1 + Q2)t] = S2 - S1

(10.51)

trong I1, I2 - lu lng chy vo u v cui thi on tnh ton t; Q1, Q2 - lu lng chy ra u
v cui thi on t; S1, S2 l dung tch h cha u v cui thi on t.
Phng trnh tr lng ca h cha l:

dS
dQ
= Ts
dt
dt

(10.52)

hay vit di dng sai phn:

S = TsQ.

(10.53)

Thay (10.53) vo (10.51) ta c:

159

Q + Q2
I1 + I 2
t 1
t = Ts (Q2 Q1 ) .
2
2
t I m =

(10.54)

I1 + I 2
v qua bin i ta c:
2

t
t

Q2 TS +
= Q1 TS
+ I m t ,
2
2

t
t

Q2 TS +
= Q1 TS +
Q1t + I m t,
2
2

Q2 =

(I m Qt )t + Q .
t
TS +
2

(10.55)

Nh vy nu bit c lu lng chy vo trung bnh Im lu lng chy ra u thi khong tnh
ton Q1 v thi gian tr nc ca h Ts th c th tnh c lu lng chy ra cui thi khong tnh ton
Q2 theo phng trnh (10.55).
1. M hnh lu vc
- Lng nc n ca mt lu vc kn gm c lng ma v tuyt ri (Hnh 10.7). Mt phn ca
lng nc n ny c gi li trn b mt lu vc lm m t, mt phn bay hi vo kh quyn, phn
cn li s to thnh 3 kiu nh sau:
- Chy trn trn mt t,
- Chy ngm trong t v lp t pha trn,
- Chy ngm trong lp t tng sau, (xem hnh 10.7).
Ngi ta hnh dung mi qu trnh chy k trn nh chy qua mt chui cc h k tip nhau. Lng
nc chy vo h cha u tin ca chui h cha ny chnh l lng chy vo ca h cha tip theo. Tp
hp lng nc chy ra t h cha cui cng chnh l lng nc chy ra ca c lu vc.
tnh c lng nc chy vo ca cc h cha u tin ta phi tnh c ton b lng nc n
ca lu vc, sau tch ring phn tham gia dng chy st mt v dng chy ngm.
a) Tnh lng nc ma trung bnh trn lu vc
Ngi ta thng tnh lng ma trung bnh ngy theo cng thc:

XN =

1 n
ai .xi
n i=1

(10.56)

trong :
xi - lng ma o c trm th i trong mt ngy;
n - s trm o ma trn ton lu vc;
ai - h s trung bnh tnh theo phng php hnh nhiu cnh hoc ly bng t s gia lng ma trung
bnh hng nm trn phn lu vc tng ng v lng ma trung bnh hng nm ti trm o ma th i.
XN - lng ma trung bnh ngy tnh ton.
Khi thi khong tnh ton t ngn hn mt ngy th lng ma trung bnh trong khong thi gian t
l:
Xt = b.XN
vi b l h s chuyn i.
160

(10.57)

b) Tnh m ca t
H s dng chy ph thuc ch yu vo m ca t trn lu vc. Ngi ta ch dng ch s m A
biu th m ca t.
A2 = A1 + (X-Y) - K1E

(10.58)

vi A1, A2- ch s m u v cui khong t

X, Y - lng ma v lng dng chy trong thi khong t
E - lng bc hi ngy, tnh trung bnh trn ton lu vc. Nu trn lu vc c n trm bc hi th:

E=

1 n
i Ei .
n i =1

(10.59)

i - h s trung bnh;
Ei - lng bc hi ngy o c trm th i;
K1 - h s chuyn i, n thay i theo m ca t.
K1 = f1(A).
Trng hp thiu ti liu bc hi hng ngy th dng tr s bc hi trung bnh thng ET nhn vi h s
chuyn i K2. Lc m ca t tnh theo cng thc:

A2 = A1 + ( X Y )

t
K 2 ET .
24

(10.60)

c) Tnh lp dng chy

Lp dng chy, tng cng l Y = X, vi l h s dng chy ph thuc vo m ca t.
Lp dng chy tng cng ny c phn chia thnh 3 thnh phn ng vi dng chy mt, dng chy
st mt v dng chy ngm.
Lp dng chy ngm trong mt gi l:

Yng = K 3

Y
t

(10.61)

K3 - l h s chy ngm, n ph thuc vo ch s thm P:

K3 = f3(P).
Ch s thm P tnh nh sau:
t
Y
P2 = P1 + 24
P1
T + t
t
2

P1, P2 - ch s thm u v cui thi khong t

T - thi gian tr nc bin i t 30 n 60 gi.
Vic phn chia thnh dng chy mt Ym v dng chy st mt Ysm da vo cc gi thit sau:
- Dng chy mt t tr s ln nht Ymmax v gi nguyn v tr s khi G ln hn 200% ca Ymmax
-

Dng chy mt nh nht Y mmin bng 10% ca G, vi:

G = Ym + YSm = Y - Yng

Khi lp dng chy mt trong mt gi l:

Ym = f4(G)
Khi Ym < Ymmax th:

161


G
Ym = 0,1 + 0,2.
Ym max

Nu Ym Ymmax th ly Ym = Ymmax
YSm = G - Ym.
d) Tnh lu lng chy ra ca lu vc

Sau khi thc hin phn chia lng ma hiu qu thnh 3 phn: lng nc tham gia dng chy mt,
st mt v dng chy ngm, ta coi l lng nc chy vo ca 3 h cha u tin trong 3 h cha tng
tng vi 3 cch to thnh dng chy. Nu bit s h cha ca tng chui n1, n2, n3 v thi gian tr nc
TS1, TS2, TS3ta c th tnh c lu lng chy ra t h cui cng bng cch s dng lin tip cng thc
(10.58). Lu lng chy ra ca lu vc l tng ca cc lu lng chy ra t 3 h cha sau cng.
e) iu chnh thng s

Cc thng s c m hnh lu vc l:
- Cc thng s tnh ma bnh qun trn lu vc ai, b,
- Cc thng s tnh bc hi K1, K2, i,
- Cc thng s n, n2, n3, TS1, TS2, TS3 v T.
- Quan h gia h s dng chy v m = f2(A),
- Quan h tnh lp dng chy ngm K3 = f3(P),
-

Quan h phn chia dng chy mt v dng chy ngm Ym = f4(G).

Ma ri

Tuyt tan

Lng nc n

Ch s
m A

Lm m t

Sinh dng chy

Ch s
thm P

Chy ngm

Chy di mt

Chy trn mt

Dng chy
Hnh 10.7. S m hnh lu vc SSARR

162

Cc thng s v quan h k trn c la chn gi tr ti u thng qua vic tnh th dn sao cho s sai
khc gia lu lng thc o v lu lng tnh ton l nh nht.
Cho ti nay, vic iu chnh cc thng s ca m hnh SSARR cn cha c t ng ho, v th n
cn l mt cng vic rt phc tp v ph thuc nhiu vo kinh nghim ca ngi iu chnh m hnh.
trn k ra nhiu thng s v quan h, nhng ch c 4 loi sau nh hng nhiu nht ti kt qu tnh ton.
- Cc h s tnh ma trung bnh lu vc ai, b,
- H s TS1 ca dng chy mt,
- Quan h h s dng chy v m = f2(A),
- Quan h ca h s chy ngm vi ch s thm K3 = f3(P).
Ngi ta chn cc thi k c ng qu trnh bin i nhiu (ma l nm nc ln) iu chnh
thng s, sau th li cho cc nm khc.
2. M hnh dng chy trong sng

Dng sng c coi nh bao gm mt chui h cha k tip nhau, mi h cha ng vi mt on

sng di t 6 n 10 km. Thi gian tr nc TS ca on sng tnh theo quan h:
TS =

K4
Qn

vi K4, n l cc hng s thc nghim.

Cng c th tnh TS theo quan h TS = f(Q) ly ra t ti liu thc o.
Lu lng chy ra t on ny c dng lm lu lng chy vo on tip theo. Vic la chn cc
gi tr ca K4, n v chiu di tnh ton ca cc on sng c lm theo cch th dn.
3. M hnh h cha

i vi h cha t nhin, lu lng chy vo h coi nh bit, nu tnh c thi gian tr nc TS

th tnh c lu lng chy ra theo phng trnh (10.58). TS bin thin theo mc nc h: TS = f(H). Vi
mi h cha quan h TS =f(H) c xc nh sn t trc, do bit lu lng chy vo th tnh c
ngay lu lng chy ra.
cc h cha nhn to, ngoi ng cong TS = f(H) cn cn phi bit thm Hmax, Hmin, ng cong H
~ Q khi H > Hmax v kh nng tho qua h ng vi cc cp mc nc, nu l h chy theo ch c iu
tit th phi tnh n s iu tit ny. Lu lng chy ra tnh ton phi nh hn kh nng tho qua ca h
v mc nc tnh ton phi ln hn Hmin.
4. M hnh h thng sng

H thng sng bao gm cc lu vc nh, cc h cha v cc on sng. Nhng m hnh thnh phn
ny bit, khi ghp li trong m hnh h thng sng cn phi ch n nh hng ca nc vt, hoc
lng nc ly ra ti rung v lng nc chy thm vo on sng do ma trn ng rung, hoc do
nc sau khi ti rung xong c tho ra sng. Tt c qu trnh tnh ton c thc hin trn my
tnh theo cc chng trnh mu.

10.6. M HNH DIN TON CHU TH

nhng dng chy qua ng bng, nu khng c bao bc th lc ma l n, nc sng s dng
ln v chy trn ra ng rung hai bn b, khi dng chy khng ch theo chiu dng sng m cn theo
chiu vung gc vi dng sng na. m t qu trnh ny, r rng khng th dng h phng trnh Saint

163

-Venant, v h phng trnh ny ch m t qu trnh chuyn ng khng n nh, bin i chm ca nc

chy mt chiu trong sng. Ngi ta c nh m t s chuyn i ca dng l qua vng ng bng ngp
lt ging nh s truyn i ca thy triu ngoi bin v chng u truyn i theo c hai chiu vung gc vi
nhau. Phng trnh biu din s truyn i ca thy triu bin c lp ra t lu vi gi thit l mt
vng bin th su ca nc khng chnh lch nhau qu nhiu. vng ng bng ngp lt gi thit ny
khng cn ng na, cho nn khng th c c kt qu nu nh p dng phng trnh truyn thy triu
tnh truyn l qua vng ng bng. Trong cc nm 1962 - 1966, khi kho st vng ng bng h lu sng
M- Kng, ngi ta nhn thy rng chiu su ca vng "ng bng b ngp hon ton" l rt khc nhau,
n mc khng th coi chiu su nc mi ni l nhng i lng cng cp. Ngay c khi l ln nht,
ng bng vn cn nhiu ni khng b ngp v hnh thnh nhiu cha nc ranh gii gia cc ngng
trn. Cn c vo thc t a hnh ngi ta chia b mt lu vc thnh nhiu , cc ny li c xp thnh
cc tng lin tip nhau sao cho mt ch trao i nc vi cc khc cng tng v nhng tng trn
k trc v sau n. y l mt gii php sng to cho php m t gn ng dng chy hai chiu ng
bng m khi lng tnh ton li gim i rt nhiu so vi vic dng phng trnh truyn thy triu. Cch
chia lu vc thnh nhiu v tnh ton trao i nc gia cc nh ni trn chnh l ni dung m
hnh en-ta (Delta) do Prysman (Preissman) v Cunge a ra.
Sau khi chia b mt lu vc thnh nhiu , ngi ta tha nhn hai gi thit l:
- Th tch nc trong mi l hm bc nht ca mc nc trong .
- Lu lng chy gia hai l hm bc nht ca mc nc hai y cng mt thi im, ngha l
b qua lc qun tnh tc ng ti lu lng chy gia hai . Ngi ta chng minh rng vng ng
bng, sai s do b qua lc qun tnh l rt nh.
Phng trnh cn bng nc vit cho th i l:

Si

k
dz
= Pi + Qi, k
dt
i =1

(10.62)

trong Pi l lng ma hiu qu trn mt th i, n thay i theo thi gian t; Pi = f1(t). Gi tr Pi bit
c t ti liu o c ma v thm.Si - din tch mt nc th i ng vi su thay i th cng bin i
theo Si = f2(zi), Qi,k l lu lng nc chy t th i vo th k, theo gi thit Qi,k l hm bc nht ca Zi
v Zk.
Qi ,k = f3 ( Zi , Zk )

Lng nc chy gia hai lin nhau c th tun theo cc qui lut chy loi sng v loi b trn. Khi
chy loi sng, dng chy khng chy tn tht cc b v lu lng tnh theo cng thc Stric-l:
Qi,k = AR2/3J1/2

(10.63)

vi
A: l din tch mt ct t gia hai th i v th k.
R: bn knh thy lc ca A v J l tc mt nc, l hng s. V A, R, J, u l hm s ca mc
nc gia hai i v k cho nn:
Qi , k = f ( Z i , k )

(10.64)

vi Zi,k = Zi + (1 ) Z k . y hng s 1.
Khi chy loi b trn th thng gp hn c loi chy qua p trn nh rng. Lu lng qua ngng
ca trn ph thuc vo kch thc ca trn, mc nc thng lu v mc nc h lu. Cc cng thc tnh
ton trnh by trong cc gio trnh thy lc.
164

Gi s la chn mc thi gian tnh ton l t, thi im u t = n.t bit iu kin u l gi tr

n
su mc nc tt c cc , vy l bit, ta tnh c Qi, k bng cch ly tng cng lu lng chy

qua cc mt xung quanh ca th i. Ch s n cc k hiu Qi ,k Z i biu th cc i lng Q, Z thi im

t = nt

Ly tch phn phng trnh (10.62) trong khong thi gian t ta c:

n
S Z = P ( )t + t Q ( )
i i
i
i, k
k =1

(10.65)

vi l thi im nm gia n.t v (n+1)t:

n.t < < (n+1)t

Cn lu lng chy t th i sang th k l:

Q ( ) = Q n + 1 + (1 )Q n
i, k
i, k
i, k
hng s t chn trong khong 0 1
Nu chn = 0 th Qi , k ( ) = Qin, k , do tt c cc s hng v phi ca phng trnh (11.65) l
bit, ta tnh ngay c gi tr Zi v tri, t tnh ra c Zi thi im (n + 1)t theo cng thc:
Zin +1 = Zin + Zi .
V mt c cu tnh ton, chn = 0, s rt n gin. Nhng = 0 ta phi chn t nh, sao
cho c th coi lu lng Qi,k khng thay i nhiu trong khong t, bo m iu kin:
Qi, k ( ) = Qin, k .

Thng ta phi chn t < 30 pht. Vic chn t nh, dn ti thi gian tnh trn my tnh tng ln
nhiu. Ngi ta thng chn 0 c th la chn t di hn (t 6 gi n 72 gi). Khi chn 0
phng trnh (10.65) c gii theo phng php s m.
Nu chn =1 ta c:

Qi, k

( )

= Qin, k+1 .

(10.66)

Qin, k+1 -l lu lng chy t th i sang th k thi im t = (n+1)t ta cha bit c cho nn
n +1

dng php khai trin Taylo chuyn Qi, k thnh mt chui cc gi tr thi im t = nt bit. Khi b
n +1

qua cc v cng b bc cao, khai trin Taylo ca Qi, k l:

n +1
i, k

=Q

n
i, k

Qin, k
+
Z i
Zi

Qin, k
Z k .
Zk

(10.67)

Thay (10.66) v(10.67) vo(10.65) v sp xp li cc n s Zi, Zk ta c:

Si
Qin, k
Qin, k

Z k + Li .
+

Z
+
t
i

k Zi

k Zk

(10.68)

phng trnh (11.68), Zi, Zk l s thay i mc nc cc th i v th k chnh l cc n s

phi tm, cn li tt c cc thnh phn khc bit thi im nt.
ng vi mi ta vit c mt phng trnh tuyn tnh dng (10.68). Nu lu vc gm m th ta vit
mt h m phng trnh tuyn tnh bc nht vi m n s. H phng trnh ny lc no cng gii c bng
cc phng php quen bit.

165

10.7 M HNH HO CHUI DNG CHY

Chui dng chy thc X(1),... X(n) c th c c trng bi mt b cc thng s thng k.

= {1, ..., n}
Th d: 1- tr s trung bnh, 2 - khong lch qun phng hoc phng sai, 3 - mmen tm bc 3
hoc h s lch Cs . T chui quan trc, lun lun c th thu c cc c lng i vi mi i. M hnh ho
chui dng chy c ngha l xc nh ton t chuyn i chui cc s ngu nhin (1),..., (n) thnh chui
dng chy Y1, Y2,..., Yn sao cho m bo s tng t thng k no :
Y (i) = L(){(i)}, i= 1,2,..., n.

Bn thn ton t chuyn i L cng ph thuc vo b thng s thng k c dng lm tiu chun
tng t. Cc m hnh ngu nhin c quy thnh tng lp tu thuc vo tiu chun tng t , cn bn
thn tng m hnh c th c phn bit bi chnh ton t L. Trong thy vn, lp m hnh ngu nhin c
bit quan trng l lp m hnh ngu nhin Markov. T chui dng chy nhn to (m hnh) c chiu di n
tin hnh xy dng b thng s , tng ng vi b thng s thc o. Ta ni rng chui dng chy m
hnh tng t vi chui thc o nu:

i 0 vi mi i khi n.
Nh vy i l c lng thu c t chui quan trc c chiu di n, nhng trong khi m hnh ho, i
ng vai tr c trng ca tng th. Hin nhin ln m hnh ho khng gp phn lm tng thng tin trong
vic xc nh cc thng s i m ngc li, chnh cc thng s i l c s ca vic m hnh ho. Do vy,
khi bt u m hnh ho, b thng s i phi c xc nh tin cy. iu ny hon ton ph thuc
vo chiu di n ca chui quan trc {Xi}. Vic b sung thng tin (phc hi s liu) v dng chy ca chui
quan trc c thc hin bi cc m hnh tt nh "ma - dng chy" c trnh by trong phn trn.

10.7.1. B thng s thng k ca chui dng chy

Chui dng chy y khng ch n thun l chui dng chy nm. Trong vic thit k h cha
hoc h thng thy li phi cn n chui dng chy c thi on ngn hn nh chui dng chy thng.
Dng chy thng j nm t c quy c k hiu X(t/j). Cu trc xc sut ca chui dng chy c nh gi
bi b thng s sau:
1. Tr s bnh qun (k vng ton):

M ( j) =

1 n
X (t / j )
n t =1

2.Phng sai:

2 ( j) =

1 n
2
[ X ( t / j ) M ( j )]
n t =1

3. H s lch:
nk
3
x(t / j ) M ( j )
1 t =1
C ( j) =
s
n
3 ( j)

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4. H s tng quan dng chy thng j thuc nm t v t+k:

nk

1
r (kj ) =
nk

x(t / j ) x(t + k / j )
t =1

(kj ) (k ' j )

vi:

x(t / j ) = X (t / j ) M (kj ); x(t + k / j ) = X (t + k / j ) M (k ' j )

M (kj ) =

1
nk

1
(kj ) =
n k

nk

X (t / j ); M (k ' j ) =
t =1

x (t / j )

t =1

nk

1/ 2

1
nk

nk

X (t + k / j )
t =1

1
; (k ' j ) =
n k

x (t + k / j )

t =1

nk

1/ 2

5. H s tng quan dng chy thng u vi thng v thuc cc nm khc nhau t v t+k:
nk

1
r (k , u , v) =
nk

x(t / u ) x(t + k / v)
t =1

(k , u ) (k ' , v)

Trong thc t tnh ton thy li, b thng s thng c chn lm tiu chun tng t nh sau:

= {M, ,

Cs

}{r}

vi:
M = {M(j),j}, = {(j), j}

Cs

= { Cs (j), j}

r = {r(k,J),j v K = 1; r(k,u,v), u v k = 0}

Nh vy, b thng s nu trn ch cp n tng quan dng chy cc thng 2 nm k nhau v

gia cc thng trong cng mt nm. Mt qu trnh ngu nhin c c im nh trn c gi l qu trnh
ngu nhin Markov, v chui dng chy c sn sinh theo tiu chun tng t nu trn l mt xch
Markov n.

10.7.2. M hnh ho chui dng chy nm

Qu trnh dao ng dng chy c th quy c tch lm 2 b phn: a) dao ng dng chy nm v b)
dao ng dng chy trong nm. Chui dng chy nm c th c coi l 1 xch Markov n - dng. Do s
phn bit, 2 b phn ny c m hnh ho ring bit v sau tin hnh kt hp li. Nh vy, m hnh
ho chui dng chy c th chia lm 2 giai on:
1. M hnh ho chui dng chy nm.
2. Xt phn phi dng chy trong nm.
Vi gi thit chui dng chy nm tun theo lut phn b xc sut Gamma (Pierson III), m hnh ho
chui dng chy nm c thc hin theo cng thc truy hi:
K i+1 = 1 + r( ki 1) + i+1Cv (1 r 2 ) + 2 r (1 r) ki

trong Ki+1 h s mun dng chy nm th (i + 1), c xc nh theo gi tr Ki ca nm ng trc, c

xt tng quan dng chy 2 nm k nhau (r - h s tng quan gia Ki+1 v Ki). Hai s hng u trong cng
thc truy hi biu din tr bnh qun c iu kin Ki+1 theo Ki. Khi m hnh ho chui dng chy nm, cn

167

phi xt s phn b ngu nhin xung quanh tr bnh qun iu kin Ki+1. S phn b ny c xc nh bi
ng tn sut iu kin vi cc thng s:
a. Tr bnh qun iu kin
Ki+1 = 1 + r(Ki-1)
b. H s Cv iu kin
C
v i +1

1 / 2
C (1 r 2 ) + 2r(1 r) K
v
i
=
1 + r( K 1)
i

c. H s Cs iu kin
Cs i+1 =

2Cv (1 r 3 ) + 3r(1 r) 2 K i .

(1 r) 2 + 2 r(1 r) K i

3/ 2

S hng th 3 trong phng trnh truy hi phn nh dao ng ca i lng ngu nhin iu kin
xung quanh k vng ca n.
Ki+1= K

i+1+i+1

Cvi+1 .

K thut to chui dng chy nm gm 3 bc sau

1. Pht s ngu nhini+1 v coi n ng vai tr tn sut.
2. Xc nh i+1 (khong lch tiu chun iu kin) theo i+1, Cv , Cs .
i +1
i +1
3. Tnh Ki+1 theo cng thc truy hi v lu lng bnh qun nm
Qi+1 =Q0.Ki+1

vi Q0 chun dng chy nm.

Bng thut ton ny, chng ta bin i chui s ngu nhin

1, 2,.... n
thnh chui dng chy nm nhn to c di n tu :
Q1, Q2,..., Qn

10.7.3. Xt phn b dng chy trong nm

m hnh ho chui dng chy c xt phn phi khng u trong nm, vin s G.Svanidze xut
phng php Fragmen.
Fragmen q(t) l ng qu trnh lu lng biu din di dng phn n v so vi lu lng bnh
qun nm Q . Vic chia cc lu lng cho cng mt hng s lm thay i dng ng qu trnh, trong khi
vn bo ton cc mi quan h thng k bn trong gia dng chy gia cc thng. Cc mi quan h ny
rt phc tp v c tnh ca chng cha c khm ph.
Ngoi cc mi quan h gia dng chy cc thng trong nm, cn cn gii quyt mi quan h gia
lng dng chy nm vi hnh dng ng qu trnh. Hin nhin, lu lng bnh qun nm l mt ch tiu
nh gi mc nc ca mt nm, v gia n vi tn sut dng chy tn ti mi quan h hm s. Vy,
gia tn sut dng chy v hnh dng ng qu trnh lu lng c tn ti mi quan h no khng? Hay
ni cch khc: Nhng nm nhiu nc (P < 0,33), nhng nm trc trung bnh (P 0,33 0,66), nhng
nm t nc (P > 0,66) s liu c dng phn phi dng chy trong nm khc bit hn? V ch tiu nh gi
hnh dng ng qu trnh lu lng c th chn h iu tit dng chy t nhin (do Xokolovski xut)

168

hay h s phn phi dng chy khng u trong nm d (do Andryanov ngh). Gia hai h s ny tn ti
mi quan h: + d =1
Thy rng q = Q/ Q l cc h s mun c tr s bnh qun q = 1,0; - phn dng chy c bn ca
qu trnh; d - phn dng chy l. Cc tr s thay i hng nm v tr s bnh qun trong c thi k quan
trc n nm s biu din dng dinh dng ca mt con sng. Nhng cng trnh nghin cu v lnh vc ny
cho thy h s ph thuc vo cnh quan a l v cc iu kin t nhin khc ca lu vc v bin ng
trong mt din rng t 0,1 cho cc vng bn sa mc n 0,85 cho cc vng sng m t (c mt ao h
20%).
Chn hoc d lm thng s hnh dng, c th tin hnh xc nh gi tr cho tng nm i vi mt
con sng c th v xy dng quan h tn sut dng chy nm P. c im ca mi quan h ny rt khc
nhau, vi nhiu sng l mt quan h tuyn tnh, i khi nghch bin. Trong nhiu trng hp c th mi
quan h ny khng tn ti.. xt mi quan h gia lng dng chy nm vi dng phn phi dng chy
trong nm, cc Frangmen c phn loi v a vo cc " hp ng" khc nhau. Cc hp ng c xp
theo mc nhiu nc, t nc. Chng hn c th phn chia ba loi hp ng; hp t nc, bao gm
nhng Fragmen c tn sut dng chy ln hn 0,66; hp nc trung bnh c P = 0,33, P = 0,66 v hp
nhiu nc c P < 0,33. S hp ng c th t 3 n 10, ph thuc vo mc cht ch ca quan h gia
v P. Theo kinh nghim thc t, s hp nn ly t 3 5. Vic tng s hp khng a n mt s chnh
xc ho no thm, m i khi t ra tha.
Phng php Fragmen i hi 2 php th ngu nhin, (pht 2 chui s ngu nhin i v i). Chui i
dng to chui lu lng bnh qun nm Qi theo thut ton m t phn trn. Sau khi c Qi, tin hnh
chn "hp ng" Fragmen. Dng Fragmen c th c xc nh theo s ngu nhin th 2 i theo s rt
ngu nhin mt qu cu c nh s ra khi "hp ng" chn v sau li hon tr li. Bng cch nhn
cc tung ca Fragmen c chn vi lu lng bnh qun nm Qi s c ng qu trnh lu lng m

~ , trong n l tng s
hnh. Xc sut lp li nguyn vn mt qu trnh lu lng rt nh v bng 1/n. n
~ - di chui m hnh 1000 nm c to ra t 50 Fragmen, xc
Fragmen (bng tng s nm quan trc) n
sut lp li mt ng trong s 1000 ng l 0,0005. Phng php Fragmen cng c lun chng trn
phng din l thuyt. TheoV. C Pugartov, mt hm ngu nhin bt k c th c biu din di dng
mt s t hp tuyn tnh cc hm ngu nhin c bn dng sau:
X(t) = f(t),

trong - i lng ngu nhin thng thng, cn f(t) hm s khng ngu nhin. gi l php phn
tch chnh tc hm ngu nhin. Mt tp hp bt k cc th hin ca hm ngu nhin X(t) c th thu c
bng cch bin i n gin t l th X(t) theo trc tung. y tt c cc tnh ngu nhin c tp trung
vo h s , cn mi ph thuc ca n vo thi gian c tp trung vo hm f(t).
Phng php Fragmen cng da trn vic p dng cc hm ngu nhin c bn:
Qi (t) = Qi qi (t )

trong tnh ngu nhin c tp trung vo lu lng bnh qun nm Qi , cn tnh ph thuc thi gian
c biu hin qua Fragmen qi (t).

10.8. CC PHNG PHP XC NH THNG S

Vic xc nh cc thng s ca m hnh ton hc rt quan trng v nh hng trc tip n kt qu
tnh ton. M hnh tnh ton d p dng mt s lu vc cho kt qu rt tt, nhng rt kh p dng

169

c lu vc chng ta ang cn tnh ton, nu nh khng tm ng gi tr cc thng s ca m hnh.

Vi nhng m hnh t thng s, vic xc nh cc thng s ti u c th lm bng tay kt hp vi
th, v d tm hai thng s x, k ca phng php Muskingum, nhng khi thng s ca m hnh tng ln vi
hng chc thng s th vic tnh ton cc thng s ti u s ch thc hin c trn my tnh in t.
Ni chung, vic gii bi ton ti u gm 3 giai on:
- Lp m hnh ton hoc m t cc qu trnh thc t.
- La chn hm mc tiu, tc l chn tiu chun nh gi kt qu.
- Xc nh cc gi tr ti u ca cc thng s.
Giai on u c xt cc tit trc, by gi chng ta nghin cu tip giai on cui.
1. Hm mc tiu

Hm mc tiu c dng ph bin nht trong thy vn c dng:

F =

(Q
i =1

Q t ) i2

(10.69)

vi (Q - Qt) l chnh lch gia gi tr o v gi tr tnh ton thi im t = i.t vi i = 1,2,3...n. nh gi

theo hm mc tiu dng (10.69) rt n gin, d dng nhng c nhc im l n coi sai s tnh ton bt k
thi im no cng c ngha nh nhau. Thc t khi tnh ton l, nhng sai s gy ra phn thp khng
quan trng lm, cn sai s gy ra phn nh l th tc hi ln hn, do ngi ta chn hm mc tiu c
dng:

F =

i =1
m
n

(Q
j =1

Q t ) 2j + 2 ( Q dm

Qt

) 2 + 5 (T d Tt )
i

(10.70)

hoc c dng:
n Q
Td Tt
Ld Lt
dm Q tm
F =
+
+

Qdm
Td
Ld i
i =1

(10.71)

trong i l s trn l c tnh i = 1,2...n cn j l s thi on tnh ton trong 1 trn l j = 1,2...m. (Q Qt) l chnh lch gia lu lng thc o Q v lu lng tnh ton Qt thi im t=jt tnh t khi bt u
trn l. Qdm l lu lng nh l thc o, cn Qtm l lu lng nh l tnh ton.
Td, Tt tng ng l thi gian l thc o v tnh ton. L,Lt l thi gian ko di ca trn l thc o v tnh
ton. Ni chung tt c hm mc tiu s dng trong thy vn u l hm phi tuyn ca cc thng s, do
vic la chn cc thng s ti u thng phi tnh qua nhiu ln lp.
2. La chn thng s ti u: C hai phng php thng hay s dng nht:

- Phng php d tm theo hng dc nht: Cho hm mc tiu F vi n thng s: x1, x2,..., xn.
F = F(x1, x2,..., xn) = F(x).

cho gn ta dng ton t . Nu f l mt hm s no trong khng gian ba chiu x,y,z th f l

mt vect.
f =

f
f
f
i+
j+
k
x
y
z

vi i, j, k l ba vc t n v ch phng cc trc 0x, 0y, 0z trong h trc to cc. Hm mc tiu F c

n thng s nn n c biu din trong khng gian n chiu. Ngi ta chng minh rng nu nh hm

170

mc tiu F l lin tc v F ti Xk l xc nh th vect F(Xk) biu th phng ngn nht i v pha cc tr

ca hm F(x). Qu trnh tm thng s hm F(x) nh nht trnh by phn trc.
- Theo phng php Rosenbroc : Phng php ny cng b vo nm 1969 v ang c ng dng
rng ri trong nhiu ngnh khc nhau. Ni dung ca thut ton l xt hm mc tiu di dng ma trn n
chiu t gii ma trn tm nh thc ph hp qua cc php tnh lp la chn cc thng s hm mc
tiu F(x) t gi tr nh nht.

10.9. KT QU NGHIN CU NG DNG M HNH TON THY VN VIT NAM

Nhng thnh tu c bn trong lnh vc ng dng, nghin cu m hnh ton thy vn Vit Nam c
phn nh kh y trong Hi tho Quc gia v ng dng m hnh ton thy vn v thy lc trong pht
trin v qun l ti nguyn nc ti H Ni nm 1988. M hnh c hon chnh v sm c ng dng ti
Vit Nam l m hnh SSARR u tin lnh vc thy vn cng trnh v sau c nghin cu ng dng
cho d bo l khu vc ng bng sng Cu Long c tnh n nh hng triu v cc pha l trn b. M
hnh SSARR cng c ci tin v ng dng d bo l cho sng Hng - mt h thng sng phc tp ca
ng bng Bc B, bc u cho nhng kt qu ng khch l.
M hnh TANK c ng dng Vit Nam vo cui nhng nm 1980. M hnh tng i n gin,
c ngha vt l trc quan, thch hp vi cc lu vc sng sui va v nh.
Mt s m hnh truyn thng c p dng t trc nh m hnh Kalinhin - Miuliacp, phng
php din ton lng gia nhp khu gia c vn dng kh linh hot trong cc lnh vc tnh ton v d bo
thy vn.
Vic kt hp cc phng php truyn thng v cc m hnh SSARR, TANK, NAM... ang c trin
khai trong nhiu d n nghin cu ng dng.
Kt qu s dng cc m hnh SSARR, TANK, NAM cho cc lu vc sng sui nh cho thy cc c
trng trung bnh ca dng chy nm, dng chy ma v cc thng cng nh phn phi dng chy tnh t
cc m hnh trn t yu cu v chnh xc cho giai on qui hoch.
Ngoi ra cc m hnh chui thi gian, m hnh ARIMA cng c ng dng c hiu qu trong vic
m phng v d bo dng chy thng, dng chy nm.

171

Chng 11
QUN L CHT LNG V BO V MI TRNG NC
Ngun nc rt phong ph bao gm ngun nc mt v nc ngm trong lng Tri t.
Nc l thnh phn c bn ca c th sinh vt, l mi trng ca s sng. Ngy nay mc pht trin
ca kinh t rt nhanh, nhu cu v nc ngy cng tng. Vn s dng hp l ngun nc v bo v
ngun nc trong sch l mt vn ln, cp thit i vi con ngi hin nay v trong tng lai.
p ng yu cu trn, i vi cc ngnh dng nc phi nghin cu cc vn :
- nh gi cht lng ca ngun nc s dng.
- nh gi v d bo mc nhim bn ngun nc, nghin cu cc bin php hn ch i n loi
tr tnh trng nhim ngun nc.
cng l hai ni dung ch yu gii thiu trong chng ny.

11.1. NGUN NC V MI TRNG

Nc l mt ngun ti nguyn thin nhin, mt thnh phn ca cnh quan a l, ca mi trng sng.
C nhiu khi nim v mi trng sng (cn gi l mi trng t nhin, mi trng xung quanh) trong
mt khi nim ngy cng c chp nhn rng ri cho rng "Trong mi trng sng, cc hot ng a
dng v phc tp ca cc sinh vt, c bit l hot ng ca con ngi din ra thng xuyn lin tc,
gy ra nhng bin i bn trong ca cc yu t mi trng ni chung v ngun nc t nhin ni ring".
Mt trong nhng bin i l lm thay i cht lng ngun nc v mt mc cao s gy nn tnh
trng nhim ngun nc.
Ngc li, s thay i ca mi trng nc, trong mt quy m ln cng gy nn nhng bin i
ca mi trng xung quanh. Gia mi trng nc v mi trng t nhin lun duy tr mt mi quan h
tng h. Hiu bit su sc mi quan h l rt cn thit bo v v ci to t nhin.

11.1.1. Ngun nc trn Tri t

Theo ngun gc pht sinh th nc trn Tri t c hai loi: nc s sinh v nc kh tng. Nc s
sinh c to thnh bi cc dung dch thy nhit t lng su Tri t phun ln t li. Nc kh tng l
nc t nhin, c chu trnh tun hon trong kh quyn, thy quyn, a quyn qua cc qu trnh bc hi ma - bc hi. So vi nc kh tng, nc s sinh c khi lng rt nh. Ngy nay, nh nhng thnh tu
khoa hc v trc a, thy vn, kh tng, con ngi c th c lng c khi lng nc trn Tri t.
Lng nc trn Tri t gm nc trn b mt Tri t v nc di t.
Ngun nc trn b mt Tri t l 1454.106km3 trong i dng l 13700.106km3, cn li l nc
trn sng h, m ly, nc bng tuyt a cc. Trong phm vi b dy v Tri t 16km, lng nc
ngm khong 400.106km3, khng k nc lin kt trong cc nham thch l khong 1800.106km3. Ngoi ra
mt phn nc dng hi cha trong tng kh quyn quanh Tri t.
Trong qu trnh tun hon ca nc, mi nm mt bin bc hi chng 449.000 km3, lc a khong
71.100 km3. Hi nc t bin theo gi vo lc a hng nm gy ma khong 108.400 km3 nc. Nh vy
dng chy mt v dng chy ngm hng nm chy t lc a ra bin khong 37.000 km3.So vi tng lng
nc chung trn Tri t th lng nc ny khng ng k, nhng n li c ngha v cng quan trng
i vi i sng con ngi v cc sinh vt sng trn lc a. l ngun nc s dng ca con ngi.

172

Ngun nc s dng ca con ngi phn b khng u theo khng gian v thi gian. Theo khng
gian, do nh hng ca iu kin kh hu, mt m tng ni m lng ma c th rt khc nhau. Ni ma
nhiu lng ma nm c th my ngn mm, ni ma t ch vi trm mm, thm ch khng ma. Th d
lng ma trung bnh ti Haoai 12.092, R-uy-ni- ng 12.000 mm, Ca-m-run 10.470 mm v mt s vng
xch o l nhng ni ma nhiu.
Vit Nam, ma rt phong ph, tm ma Bc Quang thuc thung lng sng L, lng ma nm bin
i t 1.500 n 2.500mm. Ma rt t l cc vng sa mc, lng ma nm thng di 100mm. Trn ton
Tri t lng ma nm bnh qun l 880mm, trn cc lc a t 670 n 750mm.
V bc hi bnh qun nm trn cc i dng 930 n 1.070mm, trn lc a t 420 n 500 mm. Nh
vy, trn i dng, lng bc hi hng nm ln hn lng nc n 100 mm, cn trn lc a, lng ma
ln hn lng bc hi n 250 mm.
Lng nuc tha trn lc a chnh l lng dng chy trn cc dng sui chy ra i dng. Do ma
phn b khng u m lng dng chy trn cc sng sui cng phn b khng u. Trong 144,5. 106 km2
lc a, c 6.106 km2 hon ton khng c dng chy. Mt t ao h nhng vng ch yu l do nc
ngm cung cp nn nc tng i mn.
Vng dng chy rt ngho chim khong 32 triu km2, trong chu u v chu 18 triu km2, chu
Phi 9 triu km2, chu c 4 triu km2, cn li l mt s vng chu Nam M.
Vng c dng chy rt phong ph thuc lu vc ca 21 con sng t 10 vn km2 n 1 triu km 2
chim ht 28,4 triu km2. Sng Hng v sng M Kng cng thuc loi sng va c lng dng chy ln.
Theo thi gian, s phn b khng ng u th hin c tnh bin i theo ma ca ma v dng
chy, l ma ma v ma kh hay ma l v ma kit. Ma ma, l cng l ma nc hay gy ng.
Ma kh, kit cng l ma thiu nc cho con ngi.
Mc pht trin kinh t khng u trn th gii khin cho nhu cu s dng nc cng khng ging
nhau gia cc nc, cc khu vc. Vn tha nc, thiu nc tr thnh vn quan trng i vi s pht
trin ca loi ngi hin ti v tng lai.

11.1.2. S dng ngun nc mt, nc ngm

1. Nhu cu s dng nc

C th phn thnh hai loi nhu cu s dng nc, nhu cu nc cho sinh hot v nhu cu nc cho
cc ngnh kinh t cng nghip, giao thng vn ti. Ngy nay, nhu cu nc bnh qun ti thiu cho sinh
hot ca mi ngi/ngy l 5lt. cc nc pht trin, nhu cu nc mi ngi bnh qun trn 500
lt/ngy. Ch tnh mc nc 250 lt/ngy th mt triu dn H Ni mi ngy cng cn 25 vn m3, trong
nm c th dng cn hai h cha nh h Sui Hai (H Ty), t cho thy lng nc dng cho sinh hot
con ngi khng phi l nh, nht l trong cc nc pht trin. Trc y, vi 4,7 t dn s th gii, nhu
cu nc sinh hot t 9 n 10 t m3 mi ngy. D tnh sau nm 2.000 dn s th gii n trn 6 t ngi,
khi nhu cu nc sinh hot s cn ln hn nhiu.
Nhu cu nc cho cc ngnh kinh t cng rt ln, ch yu cho cng nghip v nng nghip. i vi
nng nghip, nc l nhu cu thit yu cho sinh trng v pht trin ca cy trng. Vic m bo nhu cu
nc cho cy trng c tc dng quyt nh i vi nng sut cy trng. V vy vic pht trin cc bin php
thy li, m bo ch ng ti tiu nc l rt quan trng trong pht trin nng nghip. Nhu cu nc
dng cho cng nghip cng rt ln, nht l trong cc nc cng nghip pht trin; nc dng trong cng
nghip ra sch cc cht bn trong cc vt liu sn xut, nho ra vt liu, lm dung mi cho cc

173

phn ng ho hc trong quy trnh sn xut, lm ngui thit b, lm lnh sn phm... Th d trong mi giy
ng h, mt nh my nhit in 1 triu kw cn t 60 n 70m3 nc lm ngui my. Lng nc cn
sn xut ra mt s loi sn phm cng nghip c trnh by trong bng sau.
Lng nc trn ch mt t 10 n 15% trong qu trnh sn xut, cn li nc cha cc cht bn, cht
c ca qu trnh sn xut sinh ra gi l nc thi cng nghip. Nc thi cng nghip cha qua x l tho
chy vo ngun nc s gy nn tnh trng nhim.
2. Khai thc v s dng ngun nc ngy nay

Nc l mt ti nguyn thin nhin v cng qu gi, con ngi ngy cng c gng khai thc, s dng
c ngun nc mt v mt nc ngm. Mc khai thc s dng ngun nc hin nay cn khc nhau gia
cc nc, cc khu vc.
Ngun nc mt c s dng, khai thc trit nht vo mc ch pht in. Nhiu nc trn th
gii t trng thy in trong ton sn lng in quc gia t ti nh cao nh Thu S, Na Uy, Thy
in xp x 100%; i Nh Lan, Cng G 95%, Cng ha Dn ch Nhn dn Triu Tin 90%... Ngoi pht
in, ngun nc mt c s dng rng ri cho nhiu mc ch khc nh ti, nui c, giao thng
thy, nc dng cho cng nghip... Nhm hn ch nhng nh hng phn b ngun nc mt khng u
gia cc vng, ngy nay c nhiu h thng cng trnh, knh dn ln c xy dng dn nhng lng
nc khng l t vng ny sang vng khc s dng.
Trong s 37.000 t m3 nc tun hon trn a lc trong mt nm, lng nc cha di t gn
13.000 t chim 35%. Cng vi khai thc s dng ngun nc mt, ngun nc ngm ngy cng c ch
khai thc, cung cp nc cho sinh hot, nc ti cho cy trng. Hung - ga - ri bt u khai thc
mt ti nc ngm tr lng khong 4.000 t m3. Nhng nc c nhiu cng trnh khai thc nc ngm
hin nay l Lin X (c), M, Hungari,... vng San ph rng xt c c trn 2.000 my bm ngm ti
cho 54.000 hc ta. Dng nc ngm cung cp nc cho sinh hot thnh ph th nc no cng c. Mt
s ni trn th gii khai thc nc ngm qu mc gy ra tnh trng st ln nghim trng.
Ti nhng khu tp trung dn c, khu cng nghip nhng nc pht trin, ngun nc c s dng
trit nhng tnh trng thiu nc vn xy ra ti nhiu ni. Ngc li, ngun nc ng k cha c s
dng trong nhng nc km pht trin.
Sn phm
Nhm
Gang
Cao su
Kn
Thp
Du ho
Giy
Si
Ni lng
Cht do
M chnh
Nc chm
Min
ng
Luyn thp
Cn thp
Phn m
Phn ln
Vi

174

n v sn phm
(tn)

Lng nc cn
(m3)

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1.000m

1500
31
2.500
1.400
25
18
200- 900
600
2.500-3.500
500
5.000
300
100
100
165
140
630
130
50

3. Vn thiu nc

Trc y vi th k, vn thiu nc cha c t ra, v vi mc pht trin x hi thi , nhu

cu nc ca con ngi cha phi l ln. Hn na dn s th gii cn thp so vi hin nay. Ngy nay hin
trng khc hn. Dn s th gii u th k XX l 1.617 triu ngi v d kin nm 2.000 lng nc
tiu th trn th gii dng trong ti vo khong 7.000 t m3, nc sinh hot 600t m3, nc cho cng
nghip 10.700 t m3, cho nhu cu khc 400 t m3.
Ngy nay, tnh trng thiu nc, nhim ngun nc xy ra ti nhiu ni. Theo thng k hin nay
c 60% din tch t ai trn th gii thiu nc, thm ch thiu c nc trong sinh hot mc cn thit.
150 triu ngi ang c tr trn din tch . nh gi mc thiu nc trong tng khu vc trn th
gii, hi ngh bn v nc ca cc nc X hi ch ngha hp nm 1963 ti Vacsava ngh dng h s
C biu th mc thiu nc nh sau:
H s C l t l gia tng lng dng chy trong nm ca khu vc trn tng lng nc tiu th ca
khu vc , tnh theo tiu chun 250 m3 mt u ngi.
C = 20 thuc khu vc m bo ngun nc tng i cao.
C = 20 10 ngun nc bo m, nhng phi c s phn phi trong khu vc.
C = 10 5 ngun nc rt hn ch, cn dn nc vng khc ti.
C < 5 thiu nc nghim trng, cn c bin php khn trng cung cp thm.

Trong hi ngh nh gi Ba Lan v Hung ga ri c C = 8, nhng v dn s pht trin nn n nm

1980 C = 6 v nm 2.000 C = 4. Lin X c, nhng nc cng ha nh Ukraina c C = 5, nm 1980 c
C = 4 nhng nc cng ha thiu nc; Mn-a-vi C = 40 thuc khu vc di do v nc, cn y
mnh vic khai thc. Ti nhiu ni, tnh hnh thiu nc cng trm trng hn do tnh trng mt phn ngun
nc, ch yu l nc mt b nhim bn do cc ngun nc thi sinh hot v cng nghip gy ra.

11.1.3. nh hng ca mi trng i vi cht lng nc sng, vn nhim nc hin nay

Mi trng a l, ni ngun nc hnh thnh v vn chuyn khng ngng c nh hng rt nhiu n
cht lng nc sng. Phn tch cc c tnh ho hc ca nc v lin h vi nhng c im a cht, th
nhng, tnh hnh hot ng kinh t ca con ngi ca lu vc sng c th thy gia chng c mt mi
quan h kh r rng. Sng Hng thuc loi c hm lng ph sa ln nht th gii (hm lng ph sa trung
bnh trm Sn Ty l 1,3kg/m3, ma h n 3,5 kg/m3, cc i n 14 kg/m3). l kt qu ca qu
trnh xm thc ca dng sng trn nn th nhng a cht ca vng sng chy qua.
Cc hot ng kinh t ca con ngi lm nh hng n cht lng ngun nc v l nguyn nhn
chnh gy nhim ngun nc hin nay. nh hng ny mt mt trc tip gy ra do cc ngun nc thi
sinh hot, rc ri cc khu dn c, th, mt khc gin tip qua vic lm thay i cc thnh phn cnh
quan a l nh hng cht lng ngun nc c tch lu t nm ny sang nm khc, vi tc cng
tng dn, quy m cng ln dn, gy ra hu qu nhim ngun nc. Tc pht trin nhim ngun nc
ph thuc nhiu yu t, trong quan trng l mc pht trin kinh t, mc tng dn s v tnh hnh s
dng, bo v ngun nc ca mi nc. Tnh trng nhim ngun nc hin nay tr nn trm trng
nhiu nc, nht l nhng nc pht trin. M, hng chc cc trung tm cng nghip thi ra khong 94
t m3 nc thi c c. Lng nc thi ny tp trung trong nhng khu vc nht nh, nn nc nhiu
sng b nhim ti mc khng dng c. Nhiu sng h, sinh vt b tiu dit hon ton do cht c.
Vit Nam ngun nc t nhin rt phong ph, cha c s dng ng k. Ni chung mc tp
trung dn c v khu cng nghip cn rt thp nn tnh hnh nhim ngun nc cha thnh trm trng.

175

Tuy nhin, do tnh trng nc thi nh my cng nghip chy ra cc sng khng qua x l nhim, nn
tng ni, tng lc tnh hnh nhim ngun nc ln ti mc bo ng, nht l cc on xung quanh
mt s nh my cng nghip ln nh nh my in Yn Ph (H Ni), nh my in Ninh Bnh, khu cng
nghip Vit Tr... Kt qu phn tch mu nc thi cho thy tiu chun cht lng nc thi ca nhng nh
my ny vt qu xa gii hn cho php. y cng l mt vn cn gii quyt trong qu trnh pht trin
nn kinh t ca t nc ta.

11.1.4. nh hng ca cc cng trnh thy li, p nc n mi trng

Vic xy dng cc cng trnh thy li, p nc ln, h thng ti tiu cng trnh khai thc nc
ngm s gy nn nhng bin i ng k n tnh hnh ngun nc, kh hu a phng, bi lng xm thc,
lng cc cht dinh dng, ph sa... trong khu vc cng trnh v vng h lu cng trnh.
Trong vn ny, vic phn tch nhng nh hng ca p nc ln n mi trng l mt vn
c ch nhiu v mt s kt lun c rt ra t nghin cu thc t ca nhiu ngi. nh hng ny
bao gm nhng nt chnh sau:
1. To nn mt kiu kh hu a phng nhng khu vc h. Sau khi xy dng p do mt vng rt
rng thuc lng h b ngp nc, lp ph thc vt t nhin c thay bng din tch mt nc h, lm tng
ng k lng bc hi, lm bin i m, nhit , tnh hnh ma...
2. Lm bin i tnh hnh ngun nc (nc mt, nc ngm), do tng nhng tn tht thm vo lng
h, tn tht bc hi mt nc h. nhng h khng c iu tra tnh ton k cng, nhng tn tht ny
c th lm gim ng k lng tr nc trong h cha. mt s h trn th gii p dng bin php
chng bc hi mt h, nh mt s h ln M, h N-van (Lin X); ngi ta phun ln mt h mt lp
mng mng, ch yu l axit bo, v ru c mch cc bon di, c th gim 50% lng tn tht do bc hi.
nc ta, lng nc mt do bc hi thng chim t 5 n 10% dung tch hu ch ca h cha.
3. Xy ra qu trnh bi lng trong lng h cha, trong nhiu nm s lm gim dung tch cha nc ca
h v qu trnh xm thc nhng on sng h lu p, cc knh dn nc ln v c th nhng khu vc
sng kh xa cng trnh.
4. Lm thay i cht lng nc s dng h lu, th d nh gim ng k lng ph sa trong nc,
lng cc cht dinh dng, hoc lm thay i mn nhng sng gn bin... nhng nh hng ny trong
mt mc nht nh c th gy tc ng xu ti mi trng sinh thi ca c, lm gim ngun li c t
nhin ca khu vc.
Ngoi p nc, cc cng trnh khc khai thc s dng ngun nc cng u c nh hng n
mi trng, th d hin tng st ln h thp mc nc ngm do khai thc nc ngm qu mc gy nn,
cng xut hin v lan rng nhiu ni trn th gii gy bao kh khn cho con ngi.

11.2. KIN THC C S NH GI CHT LNG NC

Nc sng ngi, h ao cha nhiu cc cht hu c, v c, cc loi vi sinh vt khc nhau. T l thnh
phn ca cc cht trn c trong mt mu nc phn nh cht lng nc ca mu. B tr nhng v tr ly
mu, phn tch nh tnh, nh lng, thnh phn cc cht trong mu nc trong phng th nghim l ni
dung ch yu nh gi cht lng v pht hin tnh trng nhim ngun nc.

11.2.1. Nhng thng s vt l, ho hc, sinh hc ca cht lng nc

C ba loi thng s phn nh cc c tnh khc nhau ca cht lng nc l thng s vt l, thng s
ho hc v thng s sinh hc.

176

1. Thng s vt l. Thng s vt l bao gm mu sc, mi, v, nhit ca nc, lng cc cht rn l

lng v ha tan trong nc, cc cht du m trn b mt nc.

Phn tch mu sc ca ngun nc cn phn bit mu sc thc ca nc v mu sc ca nc khi

nhim bn. Loi v mt cht bn lm thay i mu sc ca nc. Nc t nhin khng mu khi nhim
bn thng ng sang mu sm. Cn lng cc cht rn trong nc c phn nh qua c ca nc.
2. Thng s ho hc. Thng s ho hc phn nh nhng c tnh ho hc hu c v v c ca nc.

a) c tnh ho hu c ca nc th hin trong qu trnh s dng xy ha tan trong nc ca cc loi

vi khun, vi sinh vt phn hu cc cht hu c.
Nc t nhin tinh khit hon ton khng cha nhng cht hu c no c. Nc t nhin nhim
bn th thnh phn cc cht hu c trong nc tng ln, cc cht ny lun b tc ng phn hu ca cc vi
sinh vt. Nu lng cht hu c cng nhiu th lng xy cn thit cho qu trnh phn hu cng ln, do
lng xy ha tan trong nc s gim xung, nh hung n qu trnh sng ca cc sinh vt nc. Phn
nh c tnh ca qu trnh trn, c th dng mt s thng s sau:
- Nhu cu xy sinh hc BOD(mg/l)
- Nhu cu xy ho hc COD(mg/l)
- Nhu cu xy tng cng TOD(mg/l)
- Tng s cc bon hu c TOC (mg/l).
Cc thng s trn c xc nh qua phn tch trong phng th nghim mu nc thc t. Trong cc
thng s, BOD l thng s quan trng nht, phn nh mc nhim bn nc r rt nht.
b) c tnh v c ca nc bao gm mn, cng, pH, axt, kim, lng cha cc ion
Mangan (Mn), Clo (Cl), Sunfat (SO4), nhng kim loi nng nh Thy ngn (Hg), Ch (Pb), Crm (Cr),
ng (Cu), Km (Zn), cc hp cht cha Ni t hu c, amniac (NH3,NO2, NO3) v Pht pht (PO4).
3. Thng s sinh hc. Thng s sinh hc ca cht lng nc gm loi v mt cc vi khun gy
bnh, cc vi sinh vt trong mu nc phn tch. i vi nc cung cp cho sinh hot yu cu cht lng
cao, cn c bit ch n thng s ny.

11.2.2. Nhu cu oxy sinh hc BOD

1. Khi nim

Cc cht bn trong nc phn ln l cc cht hu c, chng khng phi l nhng cht c cho cc
sinh vt sng. Chng khng nh hng n pH. Trong nc, hu ht cc cht hu c b tc ng phn
hu ca cc vi sinh vt thnh cc hp cht n gin. Trong qu trnh vi sinh vt cn xy. Nu lng cht
hu c trong nc cng ln v mt vi sinh vt cng cao th lng xy cn thit cho qu trnh phn hu
yu cu cng nhiu. Lng xy cn thit cc vi sinh vt phn hu cc cht hu c trong mt n v mu
nc l nhu cu xy sinh hc BOD. n v ca BOD l mg/l. Thng thng xc nh BOD ngi ta
phn tch mu nc trong iu kin nhit 200 C trong thi gian 5 ngy. BOD o c gi l BOD5.
Phn tch BOD trong mt mu nc th nghim cha trong mt bnh thy tinh c th thy qu trnh s
dng xy ca t bo vi sinh vt chia thnh hai giai on. u tin nhn ca t bo vi sinh vt dng xy
phn hu cc cht hu c, ly nng lng cho n ln ln. Giai on ny din ra trong khong t 18 n 36
gi. Tip theo l giai on cc t bo vi sinh vt dng xy xy ho hay cho qu trnh trao i cht bn
trong cc t bo vi sinh vt. Giai on ny khng di hn 20 ngy. Tc ca phn ng trong giai on
u thng gp t 10 n 20 ln tc ca giai on sau, nn ng cong BOD trong giai on u cng
rt dc, sau thoi dn.

177

2. Cng thc BOD

Qu trnh s dng xy trong th nghim trn c th biu th di dng cng thc ton hc nh sau:
Gi L l lng xy ha tan trong nc. Trong qu trnh s dng xy ca vi sinh vt, s bin i ca L
theo thi gian c dng:

dL
= KL
dt

(11.1)

trong : K- h s tc trung bnh ca phn ng trung bnh BOD.

Tch phn ta c:
Lt = L0e-Kt

(11.2)

trong L0- tng s lng xy s dng trong phn ng, Lt - BOD cn li thi im t.
t y = L0- Lt th y l tng s xy s dng hoc BOD s dng sau thi gian t, th phng trnh
(11.2) c th vit thnh:
y = L0(1- e - Kt)

(11.3)

y = L0(1 - 10K't)

(11.4)

hoc
trong : K' - h s tc trung bnh ca phn ng trn c s c s 10. Quan h gia K v K' nh sau:
K = 2,303K'

Loi nc thi

K'(1/ ngy)

Nc thi cha x l

0,15- 0.28

Nc thi qua b phn lc

0,12 - 0,22

Nc thi x l vi sinh vt

0,06 - 0,10

Nc sng t nhim bn

0,04 - 0,08

Trong phng trnh (11.3) h s K ph thuc s lng v c tnh t nhin ca nhng cht hu c c
trong ngun nc thi. i vi dng nc thi giu cht hu c, tc s dng xy trong giai on mt rt
nhanh nn h s K ln. i vi dng nc thi x l, lng cht hu c cn thp, cho nn hu ht lng
xy dng trong giai on 2. H s K trong trng hp ny thp hn trng hp trn nhiu.
Hai h s K, K' u l n s trong phng trnh BOD, chng c th tnh ton gin tip da vo s liu
thc o.
3. S xy ho trong phn ng BOD.

S xy ho trong th nghim BOD nh trn xy ra thnh hai giai on:

xy ho cc hp cht cha cc bon (cc bon nt ho) v xy ho cc hp cht cha nit (nit rt ho).
S xy ho cc hp cht cha cc bon xy ra u tin v c th hin nh phng trnh BOD (11.3)

y = L0 (1 e Kt )
v theo qu trnh

CxHyOz CO2 + H2O

S xy ho hp cht cha ni t tip sau qu trnh cc b nt ho theo qu trnh:

NH3 NO2 NO3

178

vi tc chm hn.
Trong mt s iu kin, c th c hai qu trnh xy ho trn xy ra ng thi. Nhng ni chung, s ni
t rt ho ch bt u khi nhu cu cc bon tho mn. Biu thc ton hc ca phn ng s gm hai phn.

y = L0 (1 e K1t ) + LN (1 e K 2t )
trong :
L0 - nhu cu xy ho ti a cho cc bon nt nt ho;
LN - nhu cu xy ho ti a cho ni t rt ho
K1 - h s tc ca s cc bon nt ho;
K2 - h s tc ca s ni t rt ho.

11.2.3. COD, TOD, TOC

1. COD l nhu cu xy ho hc tc nhu cu xy ho cn thit cho xy ho hc cc cht trong mt n
v mu nc (mg/l). Nu bit c phng trnh phn ng ho hc th c th tnh c lng COD theo l
thuyt. Th d xy ho 1.000mg phnol:

C6H5OH7+7O2 CO2+3H2O
COD l thuyt =(1.000)(224)/94 = 2.383mg.
Khng phi tt c cc cht hu c u d dng b xy ho hc. Cc loi ng, cc cht bo c cu
trc mch phn nhnh thng d b xy ho hon ton. Cn benzen, toluen khng b xy ho. Cc axt
amin, cc axt c cu trc mch thng c th hon ton b xy ho khi c cht xc tc l sunfat
nhm(Ag2SO4) tham gia.
Ngoi cc tnh l thuyt, COD cng c trong s tay ''Nhng phng php tiu chun kim tra cht
lng nc v nc thi''.
2. TOD l nhu cu xy tng cng, cn thit cho hai qu trnh xy sinh hc (BOD) v xy ho hc
(COD). n v mg/l.
3. TOC l tng s cc bon hu c trong mt n v mu nc. TOC c xc nh nh dng c phn
tch cc bon.

Trong th nghim ny, mt mu nc, hoc nc thi c a vo mt ng vi nhit t 900 n

1.000 0C, nc s bc hi, cc cht c cc bon s b xy ho hon ton nh cht xc tc C ban v lung
xy thi qua. Lung kh gm CO2' O2, hi nc s c dn n bnh ngng t, cn kh CO2, O2 tip tc
dn n my phn tch hng ngoi. Lng cc bon hu c s c xc nh v v trn biu bng b
phn t ghi.

11.3. THNH PHN V NGUN GC NC THI

Nhng cht bn, nc thi gy nhim ngun nc c ngun gc t:
- Nc thi sinh hot, nc cng rnh th.
- Nc thi cng nghip.
- Nc thi t nng nghip chn nui.

11.3.1. Nc thi sinh hot

Nc thi sinh hot thng cha lng nc ln cc cht hu c trc tip chy ra sng h qua h

179

thng cng rnh thnh ph khng qua mt qu trnh x l no.

Trc kia, khi thnh ph cn nh, mc tp trung dn c cn thp, th lu lng nc thi sinh
hot, nc cng rnh cn t, nc sng cn kh nng pha long v chuyn i tt c cc cht bn. Ngy
nay lng nc thi sinh hot ln hn nhiu v s pht trin thnh ph thng vt xa ngoi d kin ban
u, cng nh mt dn c rt cao, cc cht rn ha tan khng ln.

11.3.2. Nc thi cng nghip

c tnh nc thi cng nghip tu thuc vo ngnh cng nghip. Th d mt s ngnh nh:
- Cng nghip thc phm: nh sn xut ru bia, b sa, ch bin cc sn phm nng nghip, chn
nui... Nc thi t cng nghip thc phm c thnh phn tng t nh nc thi sinh hot, nc cng
rnh th nhng giu cc cht hu c hn.
c tnh nc cng rnh th

Thnh phn

Phm vi bin i mg/l

Cht rn ha tan

100- 600

Tng s cht rn

450- 1.250

BOD(5 ngy ti 200c)

100- 500

NH3

5- 35

Cht hu c cha ni t

5- 50

- Nc thi t cng nghip dt, da, giy cng nhiu cht hu c c th x l nh nc thi sinh hot,
tuy nhin, vic x l ho hc i khi trc qu trnh x l bnh thng.
- Nc thi t cng nghip sn xut cht t nh lc du, khai thc kh t,.... , hoc t cng nghip
ho hc nh sn xut phn bn, ho cht, thng cha t cc cht hu c, nhng li cha nhiu cht ho
hc, cht c c hi cho mi trng sng.

11.3.3. Nc thi t nng nghip, chn nui

Nc thi t nng nghip gm ch yu lng nc t ng rung qua qu trnh canh tc chy tr li
sng h. Ngun nc thi ny cha mt lng nht nh cc cht hu c, v c trong thnh phn cc loi
phn bn, mt s cht c c trong thuc tr su. So vi ngun nc thi sinh hot, nc thi cng nghip,
ngun nc ny t gy nhim hn, mt phn chy trc tip vo ngun nc mt trong qu trnh tiu nc,
mt phn thm xung t cung cp cho dng chy ngm.
Trong khu vc chn nui vi quy m ln, lng nc thi ca chn nui l rt ng k cn c ch
x l ng mc.

11.4. CHT LNG NC DNG V TIU CHUN CHT LNG NC

11.4.1. Cht lng nc dng
Mi ngnh dng nc yu cu mt cht lng nc khc nhau. i vi pht in v chng l, do cc
cng trnh trn sng thng nm thng lu cc ngun sinh ra cht nhim, nn c th t ch n cc
cht nhim v nh hng ca chng ti cht lng nc.
i vi nc ti, cn ch hn n cht lng v cc khu ti v t canh tc thng tp trung h
lu sng v cc ngun gy nhim. Thng s quan trng nh hng ti cht lng nc ti l mn,

180

c o bng tng s cht rn ha tan (TDS) trong nc. TDS nh hng trc tip ti s pht trin ca cy
trng. Khi TDS ln hn 1.000mg/l tc pht trin ca cy s b hn ch r rt. Thng s khc l kim,
biu th qua ch s hp th Natri (Na) ca nc, y cng l thng s quan trng ca cht lng nc ti.
i vi nc dng cho sinh hot i hi cht lng phi c bit cao hn cc ngnh dng nc khc
v c lin quan trc tip ti sc kho ca con ngi. Hin nay vic cung cp nc cho sinh hot trong cc
nc pht trin v cc nc ang pht trin c nhng c im khc nhau: Trong nhng nc pht trin,
a s dn c dng nc cung cp t cc nh my cp nc. Lng nc ny ly t ngun nc mt hoc
nc ngm, qua mt qu trnh lc v x l lm sch c bit. Ngc li trong cc nc ang pht trin
v km pht trin ngun nc mt vn cn c dng ch yu v trc tip trong sinh hot ca phn ln dn
c khng qua x l nhim. T c im ny cho thy ngun nc mt nhng nc ang pht trin phi
c bo v v phi m bo cht lng cao hn so vi yu cu cht lng thng thng cc nc pht
trin.
bo v sc kho con ngi, nc cung cp cho sinh hot cn hon ton tinh khit, khng mu
khng mi, khng c cc vi khun gy bnh v duy tr mc thp nht cc cht hu c, v c trong nc.
Cht lng nc dng cho cng nghip c hai mc khc nhau: nc c cht lng cao dng trong
cc qu trnh chng ct cng nghip ho hc un, hp ca cng nghip ch bin thc phm,... v nc c
cht lng thp hn dng cho qu trnh lm lnh sn phm, lm ngui thit b, my mc. Ngun nc
ngm, qua x l c bit thng l ngun ch yu cung cp nc c cht lng cao, cn ngun nc mt,
cung cp nc cht lng thp hn cho cng nghip.
i vi nc cho nui c cn kh b ht nhng cht c hi i vi i sng ca c. nh hng ca
chng ph thuc lng cht c. nh hng nhim c s tng khi nhit nc gim thp.
Trong cc khu vc nhim, do nc thi sinh hot hay nc thi cng nghip thc phm, lng xy
ha tan trong nc s gim i do s phn hy cht hu c, l ngun thc n cho c. Nhng nu lng
cht hu c qu ln so vi nhu cu ca c th li l nguyn nhn gy nhim, lm gim lng xy ha
tan, nh hng ti i sng ca c. Nhu cu xy cho c c nhiu ngi nghin cu v kt lun
khong thi gian duy tr lng xy ha tan 4mg/l c coi l mc thp nht c c th sinh sng c.

11.4.2. Tiu chun cht lng nc

Tiu chun cht lng nc nh r gii hn cho php ca cht lng nc dng v nc thi. Cc
tiu chun cht lng nc c ban hnh p ng yu cu chng nhim ngun nc v bo v ngun
nc t nhin trong sch.
C hai loi tiu chun cht lng nc: tiu chun nc dng v tiu chun nc thi. Tiu chun
cht lng nc dng nh r nhng thng s cht lng ch yu v phm vi bin i ca n cho mi
ngnh dng nc.
Th d: Tiu chun cht lng nc dng cho sinh hot quy nh r gii hn khng vt qu ca cc
vi sinh vt trong nc, lng cc cht rn ha tan, thnh phn cc cht ho hc. Tiu chun nc dng cho
nui c quy nh gii hn ca pH, lng xy ha tan trong nc, nhit nc, lng cc cht c
trong nc.
Tiu chun cht lng nc thi quy nh gii hn cht lng cho php ca cc dng nc thi, nu
chng mang cc cht nhim c t l cao th phi c x l t c tiu chun ny trc khi thi ra
ngun nc sng ngi. Tiu chun cht lng nc thi c quan h cht ch ti cht lng ca ngun
nc, vic quy nh chng cn m bo mc lan rng v xem xt hiu qu kinh t ti a ca vic bo v
ngun nc trong sch vi vn u t cc cng trnh lc, x l nc thi cho tng ngnh s dng nc.

181

Trong qu trnh pht trin kinh t, cc tiu chun cht lng nc khng ngng c nng cao do yu cu
s dng nc v s pht trin k thut x l nc thi.

11.5. PHN TCH NHNG NH HNG NHIM TRONG T NHIN

Cc loi cht bn, nc thi trong nc t nhin l nhn t c bn gy nn bin i cht lng nc
theo thi gian v theo chiu dng chy.
l kt qu ca s truyn thy ng lc hc, ca cc phn ng sinh hc, ha hc gy nn do hot
ng ca cc vi sinh vt, cc loi thc vt nc, BOD v lng xy ha tan l nhng thng s ch yu,
thay i mnh m do qu trnh nhim. Tnh ton v d bo nhng bin i ca chng l ni dung c bn
trong phn tch nhng nh hng nhim trong ngun nc.

11.5.1. S bin i v xy ha tan trong khu vc nhim

Nc t nhin lun c mt lng xy ha tan nht nh, cn thit cho qu trnh sng ca cc sinh vt
trong nc. Lng xy ny c cung cp t nhiu ngun khc nhau, v n cng b tiu hao trong nhiu
qu trnh nh xy ho sinh hc, ho hc, s tiu dng ca cc sinh vt sng... Lng xy ha tan trong
nc ti a l mc xy ha tan bo ha, thng ly bng 9m/l.
Khi ngun nc t nhin b nhim, c bit do cc dng chy nc thi sinh hot hoc nc thi t
cng nghip thc phm giu cc cht hu c, nhu cu xy cn thit cho cc vi sinh vt phn hu cc
cht hu c tng ln, lng xy ny c ly t lng xy ha tan trong nc, nh vy xy ha tan s b
gim i, mc nhim cng tng. S thiu ht xy ny s c b do qu trnh xm nhp xy t khng
kh vo trong nc. Do s xm nhp xy t khng kh s tng dn vi s thiu ht xy. T im ny
tr i tc xm nhp xy s ln hn tc s dng xy, ng cong xy ha tan bt u tng v dng
chy, c th coi t im ny tr i khng chu nh hng ca nhim.

11.5.2. Ngun cung cp v tiu th xy trong nc

1. Ngun cung cp xy

Lng xy ha tan trong nc ch yu do xy xm nhp t khng kh v xy sinh ra trong qu trnh

quang hp ca cc loi ru, to v thc vt trong nc cung cp.
a) Lng xy xm nhp t khng kh cung cp cho nc t l thun vi thiu ht xy ph thuc
mc xo trn nhiu lon trong ni b khi.
S xm nhp xy t khng kh vo nc c th biu th bng cng thc:
dc K L A
=
(C s C L )
dt
V
trong :
C - lng xy xm nhp t khng kh vo trong nc;
A- din tch mt tip xc vi khng kh;
V- th tch khi nc
CS- mc nc xy ha tan bo ha
CL- mc nc xy ha tan hin ti
(CS - CL) - thiu ht xy ha tan D
KL - h s truyn xy.

182

(11.5)

Gi H l su dng chy trung bnh trong sng nn

A 1
= , phng trnh (11.5) c th vit:
V H

dc K L
=
.D = K 2. D
dt
H

1
A
ch p dng cho trng hp mt nc yn tnh.
=
V
H

trong : K2 l h s xm nhp xy. Ch rng

Vi mt nc nhiu ng mnh c th ly

(11.6)

A 1,5
=
V H

H s xm nhp K2 ph thuc tc chy ca dng nc c th xc nh theo quan h:

K2 =

C.V n
Hm

(11.7)

trong : V- tc dng nc ; C - h s ph thuc c tnh ca dng chy; m v n - s m ph thuc

nhng iu kin chy.
H s xm nhp K2 cn c th tnh theo cng thc nh cng thc Thastown - Kerenc:

K 2 = 10,8 1 +
1/ 2
( gH )

trong :

1/ 2

1 / 2

S. g

(11.8)

g - gia tc trng trng;

S - tc mt nc
K2 - n v l l/ngy.

b) Lng xy do quang hp ph thuc mt to v nng lng bc x mt tri c to hp th.

Trong ngun nc c mt to cao, tc ca quang hp c th gi thit bin i theo hnh sin v xy
ha tan trong nc, trong lng xy ha tan tng dn trong thi gian ban ngy. Ban m lng xy ha
tan li gim dn do s dng xy ca to trong qu trnh h hp ca chng.
2. Ngun tiu th xy ha tan

xy ha tan trong nc b tiu th trong cc qu trnh xy ho sinh hc cc cht hu c trong nc,

trong qu trnh thi ra lp cc cht lng y, trong s h hp ca to v cc loi thc vt trong nc.
a) Qu trnh h hp ca cc loi thc vt cn dng mt phn lng xy ha tan. Qu trnh ny xy ra
ban m, khng ph thuc vo bc x Mt Tri, c th gi thit tc khng thay i. Lng xy ha tan
tiu dng trong h hp ca to v thc vt nc bin i mnh.
b) Qu trnh xy ho sinh hc cc cht hu c BOD cn cho qu trnh xy ho sinh hc c th biu th
di dng:

L x = L0 e

K1
x
v

(11.9)

trong Lx - BOD ti v tr x; L0 - BOD ti x = 0

K1 - tc xy ha trong dng chy, so vi h s tc phn ng xy ho trong ng ca th
nghim BOD (h s K) th K1 lun lun ln hn K do s xo trn theo chiu di dng chy v tc ng ca
y sng.

c) Lp cht lng ng y cng dng mt lng xy ng k cho s thi ra chng. Trong nhng
sng tc chy ngm, s lng ng nhng ht cht hu c th c th lm gim BOD trong sng. Ti

183

nhng thi im khc, khi tc dng chy tng ln cng c th a tr li dng chy nhng ht ny, lm
tng BOD trong dng chy. Lng xy trong dng chy lun khuch tn vo trong lp cht lng ng pha
trn (lp ho kh) cung cp xy cn thit cho qu trnh thi ra cht hu c. S dng xy trong lp cht
lng ng c th biu th theo phng trnh ca Moore v Thoma:

5 + 160W
ta
1 + 160W

ym = 3,14(10 2 y0 )CT W

(11.10)

trong :
ym - nhu cu xy ln nht hng ngy (g/m2);
y0- BOD5 ca hp cht lng ng ti 20 oC (g/kg)
W- tc lng ng ngy (kg/m2)
ta - thi gian lng ng (ngy);
CT- h s hiu chnh nhit

11.5.3. M hnh tnh ton s bin i BOD - xy ha tan theo chiu dng chy
Gi s nc thi phn b u trn mt ct sng, da vo nguyn l cn bng xy, phng trnh bin
i ca xy ha tan trong h thng nc ang xt c th vit nh sau:

2c
c
c
=
v

2
x
x
t

(11.11)

trong :
C - biu xy ha tan trong ngun nc,
v- tc dng chy theo hng x,

- h s truyn nhiu ng,

S - ngun cung cp v tiu th xy cho nc sng.

Vi dng chy t nhin, s xo trn ri (th d xo trn theo chiu di dng chy) khng ng k,
phng trnh trn c th vit gn thnh:

c
c
= v
S
t
x

(11.12)

Gi s ngun cung cp tiu th xy gm:

- xy xm nhp t khng kh K2(Cs - C),
- xy cung cp do quang hp P,
- Nhu cu xy sinh hc BOD = K1L,
- xy cho h hp ca to = R,
- xy dng trong lp cht lng y = S.
Phng trnh trn tr thnh:
c
c
= v
K 1 L + K 2 (C S C ) + P R S
t
x

(11.13)

trong : Cs - mc xy ha tan bo ha; L - nhu cu xy sinh hc BOD; v- tc dng nc; x- khong

cch trong trng thi chy n nh

184

c
= 0 v do (Cs - C) = D phng trnh (11.3) c th tch phn, dng:
t

Lx = L0 e

k1
x
v

s c:
C = Cs

K 1 L0
K 2 K1

k
k
k

x
x
x
kv x
S+ RD
e
e v ( C s C 0 ).e v
1 e v
K2

D=

K1 L0 kv x
e e
K2 K1
1

k
2x
v

+ D0 e

k
1x
v

S + R D
1 e
K2

k
2x
v

(11.14)
(11.15)

trong :
D0 - thiu ht xy ha tan ban u; K2 - h s xm nhp xy t khng kh;

Nu nh hng ca to v lp cht lng ng n xy ha tan khng ng k th dng cui ca

phng trnh (11.15) tr thnh:
D=

K 1 L0
K 2 K1

k
k

x
x
kv x
e
e v + D 0 e v

(11.16)

y l phng trnh Strit t php(Streeter - Phelps) thng c s dng rng ri phn tch nh
hng nhim bn ngun nc t nhin.
im ti hn trong ng cong c th xc nh theo cc phng trnh sau:
k
1x
K1
D =
Le v
c K2 0

(11.17)

D ( K K 1 )
K
v
x =
ln 2 1 0 2

c K 2 K 1 K 1
K 1 L0

(11.18)

X
t = c
c
v

Cc h s K1, K2 trong cc phng trnh trn c th tnh ton da trn kt qu phn tch cc ti liu
thc o cht lng nc.

11.6. CC BC C BN D BO V NH GI NH HNG NHIM BN CA

NGUN NC
i vi cc ngnh dng nc, tnh ton v d bo thay i trong cht lng nc v nh hng ca
chng c th tin hnh theo nhng bc c bn sau:
1. Phn tch cc loi nc thi, cht bn sinh ra t tt c cc ngun gc khc nhau trong khu vc
nghin cu v tnh ton lng cc loi nc thi v cht bn .
2. Tnh ton v s lng v cht lng ca ngun nc mt trong khu vc. Nghin cu cc dng phn
b tn sut v c trng thng k ca ti liu thc o v s lng v cht lng nc, nu c th, xem xt
lch s ca s bin i cht lng nc trong khu vc.
3. Tm hiu nhng t liu v nhng vn nhim xy ra hoc ang xut hin trong ngun nc
mt a phng.
4. Nu cn thit cho chng trnh nghin cu, din t v s lng v cht lng ca ngun nc ngm
trong khu vc, ch n su ca mt nc ngm v hng ca dng chy ngm. Tm hiu s s dng
nc ngm v nhim ngun nc ngm khu vc.
5. Thu thp nhng ti liu v tnh hnh kh hu v nhng yu t kh tng c bn nh ma bc hi,

185

nhit , trong ch nhng tr s trung bnh thng.

6. Phn tch xc nh nhng tiu chun cht lng nc c th p dng trong khu vc, nu ra nhng
k thut x l v thi gian cn thit t c nhng tiu chun cht lng trn.
7. Tm tt nhng cng trnh nghin cu v cc cht thi hu c trong khu vc. ng thi, nu nhng
thng tin cn thit v tnh hnh nhit, bi lng cc cht v c, cc loi vi khun trong ngun nc a
phng. Cn ch ra nhng ngun chnh gy nhim i vi mi trng.
8. Tnh ton nhng nh hng nhim ngun nc thng qua vic tnh lng nhng cht nhim
hng ngy theo s liu thu thp c. Ch nu r nhng thng s cht lng nc thu c l tt hoc
cha tt so vi tiu chun cht lng nc dng.
9. nh gi nhng bin i cht lng nc do xy dng cc cng trnh trong khu vc gy nn ch
yu gm:
- Cc loi cng trnh, thi gian xy dng v bt u hot ng ca chng
- Nhng bin i cht lng nc ca dng chy do cng trnh gy nn.
- Phm vi on sng h lu b gim cht lng nc.
- nh hng ca s gim cht lng nc vi dng nc h lu nh th no.
- Nhng bin php k thut cn thit trong khi xy dng cng trnh gim n ti thiu s nhim.
10. Nu trong khu vc, s nhim vt qu tiu chun cht lng th phi tip tc tin hnh o c
cc thng s cht lng nc phc v cho nghin cu khng ch s nhim.

186

TI LIU THAM KHO

Ting Vit
1. Cao m, H Vn Khi v nnk, 1993. Thy vn cng trnh, NXB Nng nghip, H Ni.
2. Phm Quang Hnh, 1986. Cn bng nc lnh th Vit Nam, NXB KH&KT, H Ni.
3. Nguyn Vit Ph, Hong Nim v nnk, 1984. Dng chy sng ngi Vit Nam, NXB KH&KT, H
Ni.
4. Nguyn Vn Tun, Nguyn Th Phng Loan, Nguyn Th Nga v Nguyn Thanh Sn, 1991. Thy
vn i cng TI, TII, NXB KH&KT, H Ni.
5. Ng nh Tun, L Thc Cn v nnk, 1985. Tnh ton thy vn, NXB Nng nghip, H Ni.
6.Trn Tut , Trn Thanh Xun, Nguyn c Nht, 1987. a l thy vn sng ngi Vit Nam, NXB
KH&KT, H Ni.
7. Tiu chun ngnh Tng cc KTTV, H Ni, 1990.
8. Ven Techow, avid R. Maidment, Larry W. Mays, 1994. Thy vn ng dng, NXB Gio dc.

HYDROLOGICAL CALCULATION
Nguyen Thanh Son

The book Hydrological calculation presents the methods of analisys and calculation hydrological
characteristics, the behavior of the phenomena and curen proceses in time and space that serve the
assessment of water resources of territories. In the book incluced the new knowledge of present hydrology
and hydrology of Vietnam.
This text book is designed for of Hydrometeorology faculty of Hanoi University of Science and serves
as a reference for experts in hydrology in irrigation and agrotechnique as well.

187