You are on page 1of 6

The Smartphone Market in the US: 2010-

2015
Covering, shipments, subscriptions, content and services,
traffic, and drivers to take up

Coda. Coda Research Consultancy

1
Coda. Coda Research Consultancy

The Smartphone Market in the US: 2010-


2015

Steve Smith PhD


Research Director

Coda Research Consultancy

Released April 2010

For more information about this product, please email steve.smith@codarc.co.uk, or call
+44 (0)7779 610004

European office:
Coda Research Consultancy Ltd
95 Wodeland Avenue
Guildford
Surrey
GU2 4LD
England

© Coda Research Consultancy Ltd, 2010


All rights reserved. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, or stored in any retrieval system of any
nature, without prior written permission of Coda Research Consultancy Ltd, except where this is expressly permitted under the Copyright Designs
and Patents Act 1988 or the Copyright and Rights in Databases Regulations 1999.

This report draws upon research and analysis conducted by Coda Research Consultancy. Use of this report by any third party for whatever
purpose should not, and does not, absolve such third party from using due diligence in verifying the report’s contents. Any use which a third party
makes of this document, or any reliance on it, or decisions to be made based on it, are the responsibility of such third party. Coda Research
Consultancy, its affiliates and representatives accept no duty of care or liability of any kind whatsoever to any such third party, and no
responsibility for damages, if any, suffered by any third party as a result of decisions made, or not made, or actions taken, or not taken, based on
this document. Coda Research Consultancy does not make investment recommendations, in this report or otherwise, and nothing in this report
should be interpreted as an opinion by Coda Research Consultancy either on market forecasts or on the prospects of specific companies.

2
Introduction

Document at a glance:
Type – US market and behavioral assessment, with forecasts to 2015
Printed page length – 62
Figures – 54
Number of forecasts – 15

Having achieved a 17% penetration rate in 2009, Coda Research Consultancy projects that
smartphone shipments in the United States will increase by +19% CAGR between 2010 and 2015, to
reach 138m.

At the core of this growth is accelerating demand by handset subscribers to access the mobile
internet, and Coda projects that traffic generated by smartphones will increase 50 fold by 2015. This
demand will have a massive impact upon carriers, but also represents a massive opportunity for
eCommerce revenues.

This study focuses upon the smartphone market and user behavior. Together with forecasts to 2015,
this study examines:

 Smartphone manufacturer profiles


 Smartphone shipments and smartphone ownership
 Vertical vs horizontal business models
 Mobile internet users via smartphones to 2015
 Smartphone mobile internet traffic to 2015
 Drivers to take-up:
o Mobile video, including forecasts to 2015
o Social networking, including forecasts to 2015
o Mobile working
o Location based services
o Mobile banking and mobile payments
 Applications, including:
o Drivers to usage
o App stores across operating systems
o Paid vs free applications
o Native apps vs paid apps
o Games applications
o Top future applications

3
Contents

Methodology...........................................................6 Applications..........................................................53
Drivers to smartphone purchase ............................. 53
Smartphone manufacturer profiles ........................7 Application stores .................................................. 53
Apple ...................................................................... 7 Applications downloaded to devices ........................ 55
RIM ........................................................................ 7 Apple Application genres ........................................ 56
Samsung................................................................. 8 Paid vs free applications......................................... 56
Palm ....................................................................... 8 Native apps – advantages and disadvantages .......... 58
Motorola ................................................................. 8 Web apps – advantages and disadvantages............. 58
LG ........................................................................ 9 Games applications ................................................ 59
HTC ........................................................................ 9 Top future consumer applications ........................... 60

Smartphone subscribers.......................................10 Bibliography .........................................................61


Smartphone vs feature phone subscribers ................10
Smartphone subscribers by operating system ...........10 About Coda Research Consultancy .......................62
Smartphone subscriber forecast to 2015 ..................11

Smartphone shipments ........................................13


Top selling smartphones Q4 2009............................13
Smartphone shipments 2009, by operating system ...14
Smartphone shipments 2010 forecast, by operating
system .............................................................14
Smartphone shipment forecast to 2015....................15

Vertical vs horizontal business models.................18


Vertical business model: advantages and
disadvantages ..................................................18
Horizontal business model: advantages and
disadvantages ..................................................18

Mobile internet user forecasts via smartphones ..19


Mobile internet user split: smartphones vs feature
phones forecast to 2015....................................19
Mobile internet users via smartphones forecast to
2015 ................................................................19

Smartphone data traffic forecasts via mobile


carriers .................................................................21
Monthly data traffic forecasts to 2015 ......................21
Impacts of smartphone data traffic upon carriers......23
Flat rate pricing ......................................................23
Tiered pricing .........................................................24
Carrier performance................................................25

4G rollout..............................................................29
Sprint.....................................................................29
Verizon ..................................................................29
T-Mobile.................................................................30
AT&T .....................................................................31

Drivers to take-up ................................................32


Accessing the mobile internet ..................................32
Convergence ..........................................................33
Video: An in-depth view, with forecasts ...................33
Social networking ...................................................42
Mobile workers .......................................................46
Location based services...........................................46
Mobile banking .......................................................48
Mobile payments ....................................................51
Music .....................................................................52

4
Table of Figures

Figure 14. Average upload and download carrier


speeds via smartphones ..................................... 27
Forecasts Figure 15. Typical throughout speeds, comparing 3G
with LTE ............................................................ 29
Forecast 1. Smartphone subscribers, 2009-2015............11
Figure 16. Sprint WiMax coverage map by city ............. 30
Forecast 2. Smartphone subscribers as share of all
mobile handset subscribers, 2009-2015................12 Figure 17. The emerging mobile ecosystem.................. 32
Forecast 3. Smartphone shipments, 2009-2015 .............15 Figure 18. The convergence of functions onto the
smartphone ....................................................... 33
Forecast 4. Smartphone share of all mobile handset
shipments, 2009-2015.........................................15 Figure 19. Mobile video user age composition,
compared with TV and internet ........................... 36
Forecast 5. Mobile internet users via smartphones,
2009-2015..........................................................20 Figure 20. Mobile video penetration by age .................. 36
Forecast 6. Smartphone data traffic vs feature phone Figure 21. Mobile video content viewed, by genre ........ 37
traffic, 2009-2015 ...............................................21 Figure 22. Top ten mobile video channels visited by
Forecast 7. Smartphone vs feature phone % data users ................................................................. 37
traffic split, 2009-2015 ........................................21 Figure 23. What 13-17 year old mobile video users
Forecast 8. Smartphone data traffic per subscriber, watch ................................................................ 38
2009-2015..........................................................22 Figure 24. Social networking users accessing
Forecast 9. Mobile internet video users, 2009-2015 .......34 Facebook, MySpace and Twitter, 2009 vs 2010 .... 43
Forecast 10. Paid mobile video service subscribers, Figure 25. Mobile social networking users by age ......... 45
2009-2015..........................................................34 Figure 26. Location based usage among smartphone
Forecast 11. Mobile video subscription revenues, owners, by smartphone brand............................. 47
2009-2015..........................................................42 Figure 27. Per-transaction costs by banking channel ..... 49
Forecast 12. People accessing social networking. Figure 28. Barriers to take-up of mobile banking .......... 50
Smartphones vs feature phones, 2009-2015 .........43 Figure 29. Mobile banking – Top future activities .......... 51
Forecast 13. Mobile social networking users as % of Figure 30. Application usage across operating systems . 53
mobile subscribers. Feature phone vs Figure 31. Numbers of applications available, by app
smartphone users, 2009-2015 .............................44 store ................................................................. 54
Forecast 14. Mobile banking users, 2009-2015 ..............48 Figure 32. Visits to App stores, by store ....................... 55
Forecast 15. Mobile banking user as % of handset Figure 33. Average number of applications on
subscribers, 2009-2015 .......................................49 smartphones, by operating system ...................... 55
Figure 34. Top ten Apple App Store application genres . 56
Figure 35. Average application downloads per month:
iPhone vs Android vs Palm users ......................... 57
Other Figures Figure 36. Free vs paid applications, by app store......... 57
Figure 1. Feature phone vs smartphone users, Mar Figure 37. Percentage of users who purchase at least
2010 ..................................................................10 one application per month, iPhone vs Android vs
Palm users......................................................... 58
Figure 2. Smartphone subscriptions by operating
system ...............................................................11 Figure 38. Average weekly playing time – iPhone vs
Nintendo DS vs Sony PSP users........................... 59
Figure 3. Top selling smartphones 4Q09 .......................13
Figure 39. Top future consumer applications ................ 60
Figure 4. Smartphone shipments by operating system,
2009 ..................................................................14
Figure 5. Smartphone shipments by operating system,
2010 forecast......................................................14
Figure 6. Top post paid countries .................................16
Figure 7. Proportion of smartphone owners who
would and would not recommend their device ......17
Figure 8. Mobile internet user split: smartphone users
vs feature phone users ........................................19
Figure 9. Mobile internet user penetration across
smartphone brands .............................................20
Figure 10. Smartphone OS penetration vs OS traffic
share..................................................................22
Figure 11. Impact of smartphone penetration on
network utilization...............................................25
Figure 12. Selected cities with low mobile internet
carrier reliability via smartphones.........................26
Figure 13. Mobile internet reliability by carrier ...............27

5
About Coda Research Consultancy

Coda Research Consultancy specializes in providing critical insight into market developments and
behavior around new media, technologies and services in order to help IT and media professionals,
business executives, and investors make fact-based decisions around strategy, service provision and
product development.

Coda employs a variety of rigorous quantitative and qualitative research procedures. It draws upon a
range of disciplines, and collaborates with top commercial and academic organizations.

Coda Research Consultancy is led by Dr Steve Smith, an internationally acknowledged research


specialist with extensive experience consulting for media and technology companies.

To find out more, visit www.codarc.co.uk, or contact us below:

European office
95 Wodeland Avenue
Guildford
Surrey
GU2 4LD
England
Tel: +44(0)7779 610004
Email: steve.smith@codarc.co.uk

62

You might also like