8/18/2016

ClintongainswitheducatedwhitevotersFT.com

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Hillary Clinton

Clinton gains with educated white voters

Democrat has strong advantage among a historical bedrock of Republican support

Getty
AUGUST 18, 2016 12:35 PM

by: Shawn Donnan in Washington

PatBiswanger,alawyerfromPhiladelphiaswesternsuburbs,hasforthepastquarter
centurybeenaRepublicandonorandpartyactivist.Butinthisyearspresidentialelection
thegrandmotherplanstovoteforDemocratHillaryClintonandismountingherown
campaignwithconservativefriendsonbehalfofthemuchvilifiedformersecretaryofstate.
HillaryClintonisprobablythemostscrutinised,investigatedandpilloriedpersononthe
faceoftheearthoverthepast25years,saysMrsBiswanger,whosupportedOhiogovernor
JohnKasichduringtheRepublicanprimaries.Everybodyhasbeentryingtogetherand
theyhaveneverfoundanything.Eventhisemailstuffdoesnotamounttomuch.
The60yearoldgraduateoftheUniversityofPennsylvania,whereRepublicannominee
DonaldTrumpwenttobusinessschool,ismuchmorethanaRepublicandefector,however.
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SheispartofanunusualwaveinthisyearscampaignthathighlightsjusthowmuchMr
TrumpspresidentialrunisupendingAmericanpolitics.
Ifamultitudeofpollstakeninrecentmonthsholdtrue,MrsClintonispoisedtobecome
thefirstDemocraticpresidentialcandidatesince1952whenthisdatawerefirstcollected
towinamongwhitecollegeeducatedvoterslikeMrsBiswanger.
Traditionally,whiteuniversityeducatedvotershavebeenaproxyforthesortof
managementclassAmericansonwhichRepublicanshavedependedforsupportsincethe
secondworldwar.In2012RepublicanMittRomneynationallycarried56percentofwhite
voterswithabachelorsdegreeorhighertoPresidentBarackObamas42percent,
accordingtoexitpolldata.
ButthisyearpollsshowMrsClintonwinningthosevotersbothnationallyandinimportant
battlegroundstatessuchasMrsBiswangersPennsylvania.
AWashingtonPost/ABCpoll(https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginiapolitics/tru
mpunpopularityfuelswideleadforclintoninnewvirginiapoll/2016/08/15/ea0e15406
30711e6be4e23fc4d4d12b4_story.html)releasedthisweekfoundMrsClintonwitha53
37percentedgeoverMrTrumpwithwhiteuniversitygraduatesintheswingstateof
Virginia,agroupMrRomneycarried5444percentin2012.InColorado,anotherstate
thatjustweeksagoseemedtobeheadedforatightcontest,sheiswinning5833percent
withwhiteuniversitygraduates,accordingtoaQuinnipiacpoll(https://www.qu.edu/image
s/polling/ps/sco08172016_crosstabs_Spk79cr.pdf),witheightin10ofthatgroupdeclaring
thattheyhaveanunfavourableviewoftheNewYorkbusinessmanturnedeconomic
populist.
ThosenumbershighlighttherisksinvolvedinMrTrumpsmovethisweektoreshuffle(htt
p://next.ft.com/content/0b4a4790645411e68310ecf0bddad227)hiscampaignstaffin
whatisseenasarebufftomainstreamRepublicanswhowanthimtotonedownhisrhetoric
andreachouttocentristvoters.

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MrTrumpandhisnewcampaignleadershipappearintentonamplifyingtheprovocative
antiimmigrantandprotectionistnationalismthathelpedhimsecurethesupportof
workingclassvotersintheRepublicanprimaries,butthatportionoftheelectorateis
diminishing.Moreover,courtingthemappearstodriveawayoneoftheRepublicanpartys
mosthistoricallyreliablesourcesofsupportinthegrowingpopulationofcollegeeducated
whitevoters.
The2012electionmarkedthefirstinUShistoryinwhichwhitevoterswithahighschool
educationorlesswerenotamajorityofeligiblevoters.Thisyearthegrouprepresentsjust
45percentoftheelectorate,accordingtoWilliamFrey,ademographerattheBrookings
Institution.
Thelongtermscenarioisthatsortofstrategy[ofplayingtothefearsofwhitebluecollar
workers]cantwinforRepublicansanditmightnotworkforDonaldTrumpthistime,says
MrFrey.
Thetrendisalsoaccelerating.Some70percent(http://www.bls.gov/news.release/hsgec.nr
0.htm)ofthe3mAmericanswhograduatedfromhighschoolin2015enrolledinacollege
oruniversity.In1980lessthan50percent(https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d15/tabl
es/dt15_302.70.asp?current=yes%C2%A0)did.
AccordingtoMrFreyscalculations,theresultingshareofcollegeeducatedwhitevotersin
theeligiblepopulationhasbeengrowingbyonepercentagepointineachofthepastfour
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presidentialelectionssothatthisyeartheymakeupaquarterofeligiblevoters.Meanwhile,
theshareofhighschooleducatedvotershasbeenfallingbythreepercentagepointsper
electionoverthatsameperiod.

AlargepartofthisyearsswingtoMrsClintonamonguniversityeducatedvotersappearsto
beamongwomenhopingtoelecttheUSsfirstfemalepresident,MrFreysays.Evenfor
manyeducatedwomen,however,oneofthemotivationstovotefortheformerfirstladyhas
becometostopMrTrump.
SarahAsby,a38yearoldmanageratacomputergamescompanyinNorthCarolina,
supportedselfproclaimedsocialistBernieSandersintheDemocraticprimariesandwill
onlyreluctantlyvoteforMrsClinton.
Shebelievesthepoliticalsystemisbroken,butherchoicehasbecomeaboutrejectingwhat
sheseesasMrTrumpsfrighteningcandidacy.Icantevenfathomaworldwherehewins
thiselectionbecauseitistooterrible,shesays.
ForPatBiswangerthegnawingquestioniswhetherafterthiselectionRepublicanswillbe
abletocountonhersupportagaininapresidentialrace.
Sheremainsloyaltoherlocalparty.[DonaldTrump]hasntchangedthat,shesays.But
[thisyear]hasmademewonderhowtheRepublicanpartyisevergoingtorecoverfromthis

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onanationallevel.Andwhethertheyareeveragaingoingtohaveacandidatewhoisgoing
toappealtome.
Printasinglecopyofthisarticleforpersonaluse.Contactusifyouwishtoprintmoreto
distributetoothers.TheFinancialTimesLtd.

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