Professional Documents
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S&P Capital IQ
SELL
Recommendation
S&P Capital IQ Equity Analyst Erik Oja
Price
12-Mo. Target Price
$145.73 (as of Jul 22, 2016 4:00 PM ET) $155.00
Report Currency
USD
Investment Style
Large-Cap Growth
Summary Affiliated Managers Group, Inc., through its affiliates, operates as an asset
management company providing investment management services to mutual funds,
institutional clients and high net worth individuals in the United States.
Key Stock Statistics (Source S&P Capital IQ, Vickers, company reports)
52-Wk Range
$214.86 115.97
Trailing 12-Month EPS
$8.93
Trailing 12-Month P/E
16.3
$10K Invested 5 Yrs Ago
$14,065
12.84
14.48
11.3
53.8
Market Capitalization(B)
Yield (%)
Dividend Rate/Share
Institutional Ownership (%)
Price Performance
Beta
S&P 3-Yr. Proj. EPS CAGR(%)
S&P Quality Ranking
1.73
10
B
Relative Strength
Down
Volume
No Change
Above Avg.
STARS
Below Avg.
LOW
MEDIUM
HIGH
250
200
Share Price
$7.842
Nil
Nil
99
160
120
Revenue/Earnings Data
Volume(Mil.)
80
6
4
2
0
4
Revenue (Million $)
1Q
2Q
2016
--2015
635.0
-2014
593.1
636.3
2013
502.2
541.0
2012
--2011
426.3
462.3
3Q
--640.3
551.6
---
4Q
--641.2
594.0
---
Year
--2,561
2,189
---
E3.12
1.98
1.82
1.37
1.04
0.76
E4.20
E2.72
3.02
2.79
1.40
0.77
E12.84
9.28
8.01
6.55
3.28
3.11
1
A SOND J FMAM J J A SOND J FMAM J J A SOND J FMAM J J A SOND J FMAM J J A SOND J FMAM J J A S
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Past performance is not an indication of future performance and should not be relied upon as such.
Analysis prepared by Equity Analyst Erik Oja on May 12, 2016 04:33 PM, when the stock traded at $168.34.
Highlights
Q1 net inflows were quite strong at $23.6 million, following net outflows in Q4 and in Q3.
Market appreciation was positive in Q4 and Q1,
following a large $42.7 million hit last Q3. Folding in management's positive outlook, tempered
by our more conservative estimations, we see
AUM rising 8.3% in 2016. Further out, for 2017,
we project an 8% growth rate. AUM, of course,
is highly volatile for actively-managed equity
platforms such as AMG, and will decline
sharply during periods of uncertainty, as in August of 2015 and January/February 2016. AUM
growth peaked at +29%, year-over-year, in Q2
2014, and plunged to -38% Q4 2008.
We are concerned about the ratio of quarterly
revenue to quarter-ending AUM. This ratio,
which does not factor in all complexities of
AMG's business model, decreased in six of the
last nine quarters due to competition. However,
we project a 10.4% revenue decline in 2016. For
2017, we see the revenue/ AUM ratio stabilizing, and we project 6.7% revenue growth, on
8% AUM growth.
We project operating EPS of $12.84 for 2016 and
$14.48 for 2017.
Investment Rationale/Risk
Fiscal year ended Dec. 31. Next earnings report expected: Late
July. EPS Estimates based on S&P Capital IQ Operating Earnings;
historical GAAP earnings are as reported in Company reports.
Dividend Data
No cash dividends have been paid.
Past performance is not an indication of future performance and
should not be relied upon as such.
Please read the Required Disclosures and Analyst Certification on the last page of this report.
Redistribution or reproduction is prohibited without written permission.
This document is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors should seek
independent financial advice regarding the suitability and/or appropriateness of making an investment or implementing the investment strategies discussed in this document and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized.
Investors should note that income from such investments, if any, may fluctuate and that the value of such investments may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than they originally invested. Investors should seek advice concerning any
impact this investment may have on their personal tax position from their own tax advisor. Please note the publication date of this document. It may contain specific information that is no longer current and should not be used to make an investment decision.
Unless otherwise indicated, there is no intention to update this document.
Corporate Information
CORPORATE OVERVIEW. As of December 31, 2015, AMG managed $611 billion in assets through its affiliates across a broad range of asset classes and investment styles in three principal distribution channels:
Institutional, Mutual Fund and High Net Worth.
Investor Contact
B.S. Perryman (617-747-3300)
Institutional Distribution Channel: As of December 31, 2015, AMG managed $347 billion in assets (57% of
AMG's total AUM) for large institutional investors world-wide including sovereign wealth funds, foundations, endowments and retirement plans for corporations and municipalities. AMG's affiliates currently
manage assets for non-U.S. clients in more than 50 countries, including all major developed markets.
Office
777 South Flagler Drive, West Palm Beach, FL
33401.
Mutual Fund Distribution Channel: As of December 31, 2015, AMG managed $176.0 billion in assets (29% of
AMG's total AUM) as advisory or sub-advisor to mutual funds and other retail-oriented products. These
funds are distributed globally to retail and institutional clients directly and through intermediaries, including independent investment advisors, retirement plan sponsors, broker-dealers, major fund marketplaces
and bank trust departments. Through AMG Funds, its U.S. retail distribution platform, AMG provides access to the U.S. mutual fund wholesale distribution channel and wrap sponsor platforms, and provides its
affiliates with a single point of contact for retail intermediaries such as banks and brokerage firms.
High Net Worth Distribution Channel: As of December 31, 2015, AMG managed $88 billion in assets (14% of
AMG's total AUM) as advisor to ultra-high net worth individuals and family trusts. Direct services to these
clients include customized investment counseling, investment management and fiduciary services.
Through its affiliates, AMG provides advisory services to high net worth individuals through managed account relationships with intermediaries. Through its global distribution platform, AMG provide its affiliates
with managed account distribution and administration capabilities.
As of year-end 2015, AMG and its affiliates had approximately 3,200 employees. AMG was founded in 1993.
FINANCIAL TRENDS. Assets under management (AUM) rose at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of
more than 24% from the start of 2009 through the end of 2014. However, in 2014, asset growth slowed to a
15.4% rate, with 82% of the growth from net inflows of $68 billion, and the remaining 18% of growth from
$15 billion in market appreciation of assets. AUM fell 1.4% in 2015.
At December 31, 2015, total assets were $7.8 billion, of which $4.4 billion, or about 56%, consisted of goodwill and intangibles. We consider AMG's balance sheet to be at the mid-point of asset management peers,
in terms of liquidity. At December 31, AMG's total debt-to-equity was 42%, well below the median of peers,
and total debt-to-capital was 30%, also below peers.
AMG's interest coverage ratios trail the peer group median. In the 12-months ended December 31, 2015,
AMG's EBIT to interest expense was 8.9X, below the peer median. Total debt to EBITDA was 2.0X, at the
peer median.
AMG considers cash net income to be an important measure of its financial performance, since acquired
assets do not generally depreciate or require replacement, and since they generate deferred tax expenses
that are unlikely to reverse. AMG defines cash net income as net income plus amortization and deferred
taxes related to intangible assets, plus affiliate depreciation.
Telephone
800-345-1100.
Fax
617-747-3380.
Email
info@amg.com
Website
http://www.amg.com
Officers
Chrmn & CEO
S.M. Healey
Pres & COO
N. Dalton
Board Members
S. T. Byrne
G. P. Earle
S. M. Healey
P. T. Ryan
D. D. Churchill
N. Ferguson
T. P. Palandjian
J. J. Zeitlin
Domicile
Delaware
Auditor
PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS
Founded
1993
Employees
3,200
Stockholders
20
5+
5
HIGHEST
$218.90 Analysis of the stock's current worth, based on S&P Capital IQ's
93
LOWEST = 1
Price/Sales
Price/Pretax Income
P/E Ratio
% LT Debt to Capitalization
Avg. Diluted Shares Outstg (M)
2015
NA
8.38
17.71
0.67
57.2
2014
4.84
12.23
27.42
0.72
58.4
2013
5.62
14.24
34.11
0.65
56.7
2012
NA
13.93
39.64
0.78
53.0
HIGHEST = 100
AMG scored higher than 93% of all companies for which an S&P
Capital IQ Report is available.
Volatility
Insider Activity
Investability
Quotient
Percentile
Technical
Evaluation
LOWEST
LOW
AVERAGE
HIGH
UNFAVORABLE
NEUTRAL
FAVORABLE
1 Year
3 Years
5 Years
9 Years
14.13
41.73
13.21
23.32
NA
NA
For further clarification on the terms used in this report, please visit www.spcapitaliq.com/stockreportguide
Company Financials Fiscal Year Ended Dec. 31
Per Share Data ($)
Tangible Book Value
Cash Flow
Earnings
S&P Capital IQ Core Earnings
Dividends
Payout Ratio
Prices:High
Prices:Low
P/E Ratio:High
P/E Ratio:Low
2015
NM
11.37
9.28
NA
Nil
Nil
230.63
141.68
25
15
2014
NM
10.12
8.01
NA
Nil
Nil
219.39
174.43
27
22
2013
NM
8.87
6.55
6.67
Nil
Nil
217.48
132.98
33
20
2012
NM
5.39
3.28
3.85
Nil
Nil
132.33
94.32
NM
NM
2011
NM
8.91
3.11
3.22
Nil
Nil
113.00
70.27
36
23
2010
NM
7.32
2.81
2.81
Nil
Nil
102.06
58.08
36
21
2009
NM
2.43
1.38
1.38
Nil
Nil
73.50
27.99
53
20
2008
NM
1.71
0.57
0.57
Nil
Nil
118.36
17.93
NM
NM
2007
NM
4.99
4.58
4.58
Nil
Nil
136.51
98.67
30
22
2006
NM
4.21
3.74
3.74
Nil
Nil
108.58
79.58
29
21
NA
NA
NA
93.3
1,091
23.6%
516
NA
NA
NA
NA
87.9
1,014
22.5%
452
NA
NA
NA
NA
109
864
22.5%
361
367
NA
NA
NA
111
495
16.9%
174
205
NA
NA
NA
101
453
20.6%
360
171
NA
NA
NA
91.1
379
24.2%
287
139
842
281
45.7
78.1
241
11.6%
59.5
59.5
1,158
415
46.6
73.9
177
11.8%
23.2
23.2
1,370
574
42.1
76.9
569
18.8%
182
182
1,170
490
39.0
58.8
454
19.1%
151
151
723
NA
7,698
NA
1,897
2,627
NA
NA
591
2.0
30.7
NA
NA
NA
628
NA
6,319
NA
1,386
2,134
NA
NA
503
3.0
26.8
NA
NA
NA
581
NA
6,187
NA
1,635
2,084
NA
NA
286
2.4
31.7
NA
NA
NA
550
NA
5,219
NA
1,198
1,866
NA
NA
472
2.1
28.9
NA
6.8
19.6
429
NA
5,291
NA
1,392
1,800
NA
NA
361
1.9
33.3
NA
6.6
19.8
369
586
3,391
227
964
1,110
2,815
2.57
105
2.6
34.3
7.1
1.8
5.4
476
641
3,246
213
1,471
1,093
3,003
9.55
69.8
3.0
49.0
2.0
0.7
3.0
358
650
3,396
316
1,998
469
3,046
16.8
224
2.1
71.6
13.3
6.0
37.6
202
554
2,666
288
1,379
499
2,367
21.5
190
1.9
58.3
12.9
6.1
23.0
Data as originally reported in Company reports.; bef. results of disc opers/spec. items. Per share data adj. for stk. divs.; EPS diluted. E-Estimated. NA-Not Available. NM-Not Meaningful. NR-Not Ranked. UR-Under
Review.
Redistribution or reproduction is prohibited without written permission.
Industry Performance
S&P 1500
Sector
Sub-Industry
90%
70%
% Change
50%
30%
10%
-10%
-30%
-50%
--Erik Oja
-70%
-90%
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Sub-Industry : Asset Management & Custody Banks Peer Group*: Investment Management Cos. - Larger
Stock
Symbol
Stk.Mkt.
Cap.
(Mil. $)
Recent
Stock
Price($)
52
Week
High/Low($)
AMG
7,842
145.73
214.86/115.97
BlackRock Inc
Eaton Vance
Federated Investors 'B'
Franklin Resources
INVESCO Ltd
Janus Capital Group
Legg Mason Inc
State Street Corp
T.Rowe Price Group
BLK
EV
FII
BEN
IVZ
JNS
LM
STT
TROW
59,966
4,108
3,132
20,614
11,871
2,644
3,490
23,060
18,391
363.05
37.64
31.38
35.17
28.45
14.82
33.11
58.24
74.12
369.33/275.00
39.72/26.44
34.53/22.76
47.03/30.56
39.48/23.02
16.57/11.07
52.57/24.93
79.80/50.60
79.00/63.57
Peer Group
Beta
Yield
(%)
P/E
Ratio
Fair
Value
Calc.($)
1.73
Nil
16
218.90
93
NA
30.2
1.51
1.61
1.32
1.63
2.06
2.04
1.30
1.55
1.42
2.5
2.8
3.2
2.0
3.9
3.0
2.7
2.3
2.9
19
18
18
13
14
20
NM
13
16
342.90
37.60
38.90
NA
32.60
16.60
43.20
78.70
87.30
A
B+
B
B+
NR
B+
B
B+
A-
99
96
88
97
87
97
75
95
83
NA
16.4
NA
NA
18.8
NA
NA
NA
NA
14.5
57.7
21.9
14.5
45.9
14.2
28.3
30.3
Nil
NA-Not Available NM-Not Meaningful NR-Not Rated. *For Peer Groups with more than 15 companies or stocks, selection of issues is based on market capitalization.
S&P Return on
Quality IQ
Revenue
Ranking %ile
(%)
LTD to
Cap
(%)
Buy/Hold
Hold
Weak Hold
BH
WH
Sell
S
No Opinion
BUY
AMG Trend
BH
H
WH
S
1000
1000
1000
2014
2015
2016
Buy
Buy/Hold
Hold
Weak Hold
Sell
No Opinion
Total
% of Total
50
50
0
0
0
0
100
6
4
0
0
0
0
10
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2015
2017
20
16
12
8
2015
Fiscal Years
2017
2016
2017 vs. 2016
Q2'17
Q2'16
Q2'17 vs. Q2'16
2016
Avg Est.
15.23
12.93
18%
High Est.
15.69
13.08
20%
Low Est.
14.48
12.54
15%
# of Est.
11
10
10%
Est. P/E
9.6
11.3
-15%
NA
3.01
NA
NA
3.11
NA
NA
2.96
NA
9
9
0%
NM
48.4
-100%
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North America
24.6%
48.0%
27.4%
100%
Europe
17.8%
57.8%
24.4%
100%
Asia
30.0%
45.0%
25.0%
100%
Global
23.7%
49.6%
26.7%
100%
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