Professional Documents
Culture Documents
OF MOBILITY
CONTENTS
Introduction
Executive Summary
10
Major Themes
Environmental Regulation
Cost Pressure
The Developing Markets
Technology and Connectivity
Rapid Manufacturing and New Materials
11
18
22
29
38
Wildcard Scenarios
43
Conclusions
47
INTRODUCTION
LeasePlan commissioned this report on the
directions that personal mobility is likely to
take from now up to 2023. The report consulted
a wide range of sources in order to identify
the key trends most likely to shape this future.
The report is the first piece of primary research
that supports the activities of the LeasePlan
Fleet Strategy Board.
1. ENVIRONMENTAL
REGULATION
When the EU signed the Kyoto
treaty in 1997, this signaled their
intent to reduce long-term
environmental harm from carbon
emissions. Although the US
and China were not signatories,
manufacturers face collective
pressure to produce cleaner,
more energy-efficient vehicles.
There are obvious synergies with
technological developments around
new propulsion options, new energy
sources, and new ways of using
existing infrastructure.
2. COST PRESSURES
The need to recoup increased
environmental costs, at the national
level, combined with peak oil polluter
pays pricing, means that both the
base price of fuel and fuel taxation,
will rise.
There will be indirect costs from
increased congestion, as more road
space is allocated to High Occupancy
Vehicles (HOVs) and Electronic
Vehicles (EVs) and cycle routes. And
fewer new roads are likely to be built,
as planning wisdom sees that they
only encourage more driving until
congestion reverts to the mean.
3. EMERGING MARKETS
Vehicle manufacturers, keen to
service the most lucrative markets
that offer most potential growth, will
continue their shift in focus towards
the BRIC countries Brazil, Russia,
India and China.
Weve already seen manufacturers
such as Mercedes and BMW make
special versions of their vehicles for
these markets and the tastes of the
BRIC countries, particularly China
and Russia, will gradually begin to
influence the cars produced for the
European market. For example,
in response to Chinese and Russian
perception that premium means
4. TECHNOLOGY,
CONNECTIVITY
AND THE CAR
The ways in which consumers,
and their devices, connect to their
vehicles will open up some intriguing
possibilities. Cars will become
appified as their specialist hardware
is co-opted into software running on
the users own phone or tablet. The
cars systems will become a conduit
controlled by these personal devices.
This begs the question; if the unique
differentiators of your car are
defined by your personal device,
how much sense does it make to
own a car, rather than have access
whenever you need it? Consequently,
we could see a shift away from
personal ownership.
5. THE IMPACT ON
MANUFACTURING
New manufacturing techniques
like 3D printing will allow faster
turnaround of design concepts,
increased choice of personalisation,
and more niche models to be spun
off the same basic platform. The
lower break-even costs through
scale means more diversity,
personalisation, and product
risks being taken.
New materials will emerge in the
quest for lighter and more efficient
vehicles we spotlight the BMW
i3s carbon fibre reinforced plastic
construction to demonstrate what
this means for ownership and
repair costs.
10
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
ENVIRONMENTAL
REGULATION
Whenever the future of mobility is discussed,
the environment must be a prime consideration.
Between now and 2050, major climate change
mitigation initiatives will start to bite. At the
same time, a second billion people in emerging
nations will demand western standards of living
and freedom.
11
12
REGULATORY RESPONSE
13
[1] https://consultations.tfl.gov.uk/crossrail/2/
supporting_documents/Summary%20of%20Option
%20Development.pdf
[2] http://crossrail.co.uk
[3] EU Transport 2050 report
2030
2020
2010
6m
7m
8m
9m
Past Prediction
Todays Prediction
10m
Population
[4] http://www.london.gov.uk/media/mayor-pressreleases/2013/03/crossrail-for-the-bike-in-mayor-s913m-cycling-plan
[5] https://www.gov.uk/government/news/dft-andmayor-announce-plans-to-tackle-hgv-safety-andsupport-londons-cycling-revolution
14
15
ENERGY DENSITY
16
ENERGY SOURCES
[1] http://www.london.gov.uk/media/mayor-pressreleases/2013/03/crossrail-for-the-bike-in-mayor-s913m-cycling-plan
[2] http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_
id=110648
17
18
COST PRESSURE
Between the rising cost of fuel and increased
taxation, the cost of personal mobility will continue
to rise for the majority of drivers. However, the
perceived value of a car, at purchase, should
increase, as technological progress, appification
and smart manufacturing produces vehicles that
do more, more personally, for the same cost.
19
FUEL COSTS
TAXATION
20
PURCHASE PRICE
RUNNING COSTS
21
THE DEVELOPING
MARKETS
In many ways it is the newest markets that offer
car companies the greatest scope for innovation.
Since these markets have few preconceptions about
what the cars they buy should or should not feature.
Even as these markets develop through their early
stages, patterns or tastes (which can be quite
short-lived) emerge, and the motor manufacturers
do their best to cater to them.
22
BRIC
23
24
25
BRAND ACQUISITIONS
Volvo, for example, was a strongselling brand and key technical centre
for Ford when it was sold to Chinas
Geely. Volvo is showing two new
concepts at the 2013 Frankfurt motor
show designed to herald a new
direction that will sell in the West
and the East. Other brands that
continue to sell well in Western
markets will soon be affordable
for consumers in the expanding
Chinese economy. Meanwhile MG
and Saab are tentatively returning
to retail operations in Europe.
26
MARKET EXPECTATIONS
27
EXPANSION INTO
EUROPEAN MARKET
SOLUTIONS FOR
MEGACITIES
28
[1] h
ttp://www.carnewschina.com/2013/01/10/
china-buys-more-cars-than-europe-for-the-firsttime/
[2] http://www.autonews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/
article?AID=/20130730/OEM01/130739984/
toyota-production-to-top-10-million-vehicles-thisyear-report-says#axzz2dRaKv8sP, CAR Magazine
September 2013
29
TECHNOLOGY AND
CONNECTIVITY
Since 2007, a quiet revolution has been underway.
The bulk of our most personal interactions
with technology have shifted away from fixed
environments such as a PC at a desk to the personal
sphere, first with smartphones providing a pervasive
bubble of connectivity, and latterly with tablets
taking over many of the functions that a laptop
would previously serve.
Steve Jobs described this world as a place where PCs
became analogous to trucks, performing specialised
tasks for professional users, and tablets took over
the car role of day-to-day interactions with the
internet. With this in mind, the key themes of the
coming decade are those of pervasive connectivity,
software and services that support our lives, and the
expansion of the new superpowers these devices
give us into whatever environments surround us.
APPIFICATION
30
31
EXAMPLES IN ACTION
32
NEW INTERACTIONS
33
34
35
36
Google recently claimed its selfdriving cars may only be 3-5 years
from market [6]. It is unlikely that a
company like Google, with its native
understanding of mass resource
management and network effects
and its advertising-driven revenue
model, would release a product like
this into the market with a traditional
purchase model. It is not
unimaginable that users will
subscribe to a cloud of cars
model where a car is guaranteed
to arrive within minutes when
called, and be ready-tailored to
the users preferences when it does
arrive. The user can then drive or be
driven to their destination, at which
point the car disappears to serve
the next user, removing any need
for parking. This kind of network
management could also provide
OBJECTS OF DESIRE
37
[1] T
he Appification Of Everything Will Transform The
Worlds 360 Million Web Sites Forbes
http://www.forbes.com/sites/
anthonykosner/2012/12/16/forecast-2013-theappification-of-everything-will-turn-the-web-intoan-app-o-verse/2/
[2] Nokia unveils its connected car platform:
Here Auto Tech News and Analysis
http://gigaom.com/2013/08/30/nokia-unveils-itsconnected-car-platform-here-auto/
[7] http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/11/20/ateenage-question-a-car-or-a-smartphone/?_r=0
RAPID MANUFACTURING
AND NEW MATERIALS
As the need for greater efficiency bites, cars will
increasingly be built from weight-saving materials
other than steel and glass. BMWs recently
launched i3 makes extensive use of Carbon Fibre
Reinforced Plastic for both bodywork and structural
applications. BMW claims that its designed-in
reparability means CFRP will be no more expensive
to repair than a steel component [1], but there will
be a natural ramp-up time for dealerships to
acquire the experience and equipment required,
and it is unclear what possibilities there will be for
out-of-network repairs. The i3 is a premium small
hatchback, but the technology will filter down
rapidly. Ford is already exploring ways of reducing
CFRP production costs [2].
38
39
MODEL PROLIFERATION
40
LESSENING USE
OF PLASTICS
SPOTLIGHT: BMW i3
41
BUILT AROUND
THE CUSTOMER
42
[1] N
ew BMW i3 can its carbon-fibre panels
be repaired?
http://paultan.org/2013/08/06/new-bmw-i3-can-itscarbon-fibre-panels-be-repaired/
[4] http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/
cars/2013/06/27/wood-fisker-bmw-ram-lexus-gses/2413611/
43
WILDCARD
SCENARIOS
44
WILDCARD SCENARIOS
UK ENERGY CRUNCH
45
WILDCARD SCENARIOS
LIMITATION OF
MINERAL SUPPLY
46
WILDCARD SCENARIOS
ENERGY DENSITY
BREAKTHROUGH
ALTERNATE ECONOMIC
RECOVERY SCENARIOS
47
CONCLUSIONS
48
CONCLUSIONS
49
AND FINALLY...
We are clearly closing in on the
end of the internal combustion era,
but reports of the death of the petrol
car have clearly been exaggerated.
Within the timescales covered by this
report, the combustion engine will
continue to command no less than
85% of the new-purchase market,
and a commensurately larger
portion of total vehicle stock.
However, drivers will pay handsomely
to own and drive those vehicles, and
will spend longer sitting in traffic in
them. As a result, cars will act as a
fourth space distinct from home,
work and public spaces, where
owners are entertained, express
themselves and get things done.