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Executive Summary
13
22
28
The Trillion-Dollar Convergence: Capturing the Next Wave of Growth in Alternative Investments
Executive Summary
The Trillion-Dollar Convergence: Capturing the Next Wave of Growth in Alternative Investments
with ample room for new category leaders to emerge. Within the hedge fund
and private equity asset classes, for in-
stance, the top five firms by global assets collectively captured less than 10
percent market share in 2012a far cry
from the 50 percent share enjoyed by
the top five firms competing in traditional
fixed-income and large-cap equity. The
competitive landscape is also rapidly
evolving. The mainstreaming of alternatives is now driving a trillion-dollar convergence of traditional and alternative
asset management. Leading hedge
funds, private equity firms and traditional
asset managerswhich to date have occupied distinct niches in the investment
management landscapewill increasingly battle for an overlapping set of
client and product opportunities in the
The Trillion-Dollar Convergence: Capturing the Next Wave of Growth in Alternative Investments
The Trillion-Dollar Convergence: Capturing the Next Wave of Growth in Alternative Investments
continues to mature.
The Trillion-Dollar Convergence: Capturing the Next Wave of Growth in Alternative Investments
An Alternatives Boom
Built to Last
The Trillion-Dollar Convergence: Capturing the Next Wave of Growth in Alternative Investments
Exhibit 1
Alternative
investments
have grown
twice as fast as
non-alternatives
since 2005
63.9
CAGR
2005-13
56.7
5.4%
10.7%
57.0
51.6
50.9
48.1
46.9
42.9
40.3
46.0
42.8
Traditional
investments
37.1
Alternatives1
3.2
2005
52.0
4.1
2006
37.9
42.8
45.7
45.7
50.2
5.0
5.0
5.3
5.9
6.3
6.8
7.2
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Does not include retail alternatives (i.e., mutual funds, ETFs, and registered closed end funds).
fund-raising.
The Trillion-Dollar Convergence: Capturing the Next Wave of Growth in Alternative Investments
Exhibit 2
CAGR
2005-13
Total
10.7%
2.4
Real assets
11.3%
2.1
Private equity
9.1%
2.6
Hedge funds
11.4%
$6.3
$4.9
2.1
1.6
$3.2
1.0
2.3
1.9
1.1
1.1
2.0
2005
2008
2011
2013
$0.5
$0.8
$0.9
$0.9
$0.8
1
1.4
$1.1
$1.7
$2.0
Fund of funds
Retail alternatives
Growth
of traditional
assets =
5.4%
5.6%
1
12.6%
Vehicles providing non-accredited investors with exposure to alternatives strategies via registered vehicles: mutual funds, closed-end funds and ETFs.
The Trillion-Dollar Convergence: Capturing the Next Wave of Growth in Alternative Investments
Exhibit 3
Fixed
income
Equity
31.9
43.0
30.0
43.9
27
29
2013
2016E
25.1
26.2
2013
2016E
2013
29.4
2016E
Survey results exclude institutions with less than 10% of portfolio invested in alternative assets.
higher-yielding alternatives.
10
The Trillion-Dollar Convergence: Capturing the Next Wave of Growth in Alternative Investments
Exhibit 4
Three-quarters
of investors
expect to
maintain or
increase their
alternatives
allocations over
the next three
years
Expected change
through 20161
Percentage points
Corporate defined
benefit
23%
54%
44%
42%
Total
31%
63%
Insurance general
account & other
Taft-Hartley
Increase
57%
31%
31%
+6.6
87%
+7.8
85%
75%
26%
51%
88%
67%
27%
+7.5
+6.2
+6.1
78%
+6.7
Among institutions expecting to increase alternative allocations over the next 3 years.
11
The Trillion-Dollar Convergence: Capturing the Next Wave of Growth in Alternative Investments
Exhibit 5
By 2020,
alternatives could
account for
about 40% of
revenues in the
global asset
management
industry
~$98T
~$270B
8%
24%
21%
35%
28%
~$420B
7%
30%
26%
9%
12%
19%
14%
11%
23%
18%
14%
33%
12%
15%
2013
2020E1
2013
40%
2020E
The upshot is that alternatives now account for a disproportionate share of industry revenues, a state of affairs that
McKinsey expects will continue. In 2013,
12
The Trillion-Dollar Convergence: Capturing the Next Wave of Growth in Alternative Investments
The Trillion-Dollar Convergence: Capturing the Next Wave of Growth in Alternative Investments
The Granularity of
Growth in the
Alternatives Market
13
14
The Trillion-Dollar Convergence: Capturing the Next Wave of Growth in Alternative Investments
Exhibit 6
Pension funds
Corporates1
~2.0
~0.7
Insurance
SWFs
Endowments
& foundations
>10%
5-10%
<5%
High-net-worth
individuals
Large
Mid-sized
Small
Total
1
~0.6
~0.4
~0.9
~2.6
Includes corporate defined contribution plans as well as assets held on balance sheets of non-pension corporate entities.
Source: Prequin; SWF Institute; National Association of College and University Business Officers; The Foundation Center; McKinsey Global Asset Management Growth Cube
and infrastructure).
The Trillion-Dollar Convergence: Capturing the Next Wave of Growth in Alternative Investments
Exhibit 7
There is a
distinct and
divergent set of
needs emerging
among large
and small
investor
segments
Smaller institutions
Investment priorities
Insourcing versus
outsourcing
Investment vehicles
Manager preferences
offices).
15
16
The Trillion-Dollar Convergence: Capturing the Next Wave of Growth in Alternative Investments
Exhibit 8
Small investors
strongly favor
large,
established
alternatives
managers with
broad offerings
attributes that
are less
important to
large investors
-4
Large asset
manager
-5
Part of a larger
organization (e.g., bank)
-7
-10
61
61
58
Negative
Positive
23
-20
-50
27
13
-5
Publicly listed firm
48
-43
17
17
The Trillion-Dollar Convergence: Capturing the Next Wave of Growth in Alternative Investments
Exhibit 9
Small investors
view risk
management as
a top-three
requirement for
alternatives firms;
large investors
focus much
more on
investment team
Small institutions
(<$2 billion AUM)
Large institutions
(>$10 billion AUM)
Investment strategy
58%
Investment strategy
57%
Investment strategy
63%
Risk management
48%
Consistency of returns
42%
Consistency of returns
60%
Consistency of returns
37%
Risk management
41%
Investment team
50%
Investment team
29%
Investment team
41%
47%
Target market
24%
25%
Existing relationship
27%
ties end. Larger, more sophisticated investors are moving further down the
18
The Trillion-Dollar Convergence: Capturing the Next Wave of Growth in Alternative Investments
Exhibit 10
Total
(Current alts
allocation)
Other real
assets
Infrastructure
Real
estate
Private
equity
Hedge
funds
Increase
Maintain
Decrease
Overall
Type
Endowments & foundations
Public defined benefit1
Insurance general account & other
Taft-Hartley plans
Corporate defined benefit
Size2
$0.5 billion-$2 billion
$2 billion-$10 billion
>$10 billion
1
Exhibit 11
Two-thirds of
large investors
will increase
allocations to
private-market
assets over the
next three years,
but small
investors will be
far more
tentative1
$0.5B$2B
33%
27%
$2B$10B
43%
36%
>$10B
45%
27%
Real estate
38%
33%
Infrastructure
37%
33%
75%
Increase
25%
27%
46%
32%
36%
31%
33%
29%
35%
63%
25%
Maintain
60%
40%
The Trillion-Dollar Convergence: Capturing the Next Wave of Growth in Alternative Investments
uid alternatives.
prepared to address.
Smaller institutions, too, have been expressing increased interest in real assets,
but have yet to make meaningful allocations beyond commodities and real estate
funds. One reason for this tentative approach is a lack of market depth and limited track records among managers in
19
20
The Trillion-Dollar Convergence: Capturing the Next Wave of Growth in Alternative Investments
Exhibit 12
Retail hedge
fund strategies
have grown
tenfold since
2005, with a
sharp
acceleration
since the
financial crisis
308
43
23
+43% p.a.
Other
Multi-strategy
Absolute return
Long/short
Credit
38
177
152
33
123
19
+22% p.a.
15
33
9 0
7 11 6
2005
44 6
8 1
18
11
2006
51
8 3
22
10
2007
73
9 3
9
47
8 3
2008
86
14
23
9
16
53
42
42
33
23 6
7
25
42
118
52
63
2011
2012
19
2009
2010
2013
tion models.
The Trillion-Dollar Convergence: Capturing the Next Wave of Growth in Alternative Investments
dispersed investors.
21
22
The Trillion-Dollar Convergence: Capturing the Next Wave of Growth in Alternative Investments
A Rapidly Evolving
Competitive Landscape,
With Room for New
Leaders
In stark contrast to the traditional world of asset
management, no true category leaders have yet emerged
in the alternatives market. The primary axis for competition
remains performance within a narrowly defined set of
product silos, and the market share of top firms remains
exceptionally low relative to other asset classes. Among
hedge funds and private equity asset classes globally, the
top five managers by assets collectively captured less than
10 percent market share in 2012a far cry from the 50
percent share enjoyed by the top five firms in traditional
fixed income and large-cap equities and the 75 percent
share of top ETF firms (Exhibit 13). The top five real estate
managers captured only 16 percent market share.
Infrastructure and retail alternatives vehicles are somewhat
more concentrated, with the top five managers maintaining
a 25 to 35 percent market share.
23
The Trillion-Dollar Convergence: Capturing the Next Wave of Growth in Alternative Investments
Exhibit 13
The alternatives
market remains
highly
fragmented, with
ample room for
new category
leaders to
emerge
$1.9
$1.9
$0.6T
$0.2T
68%
73%
$0.6T
$2.1T
$2.6T
84%
91%
92%
9%
8%
Private
equity
Hedge
funds
24%
Rest
40%
Top five
managers
76%
50%
60%
50%
32%
ETFs
Large-cap
domestic
equities3
U.S. taxable
fixed
income2
27%
U.S. retail
alts4
Infrastructure
16%
Real
estate5
Includes short term, intermediate term, long-term, multi-sector, high yield, bank loan, and retirement income categories.
Alternatives investment strategies in 40 Act funds; excluding REIT and precious metal funds.
Source: McKinsey Global Asset Management Growth Cube; Morningstar; Strategic Insight; Preqin; Institutional Investor
A trillion-dollar convergence is
well underway
model portfolios).
24
The Trillion-Dollar Convergence: Capturing the Next Wave of Growth in Alternative Investments
Exhibit 14
Unregistered
Expansion to illiquid investment strategies
(e.g., direct lending)
Hedge
funds
Private
equity
Br
oa
de
nin
Pr
gr
(e. odu
eta
g., ct
il a
i
ma nn
cc
es
ste ova
st
r l tio
of
im n
un
ite to
ds
d p tap
ar ill
tne iq
u
rsh idi
ips ty
)
gh
ou
hr
et
as
tb
t
en
en
cli ds
cli )
of fun
ve ds
on ct
ati un
ati A
rn f f
fic 40
lte d o
rsi of
f a fun
ve h
g o g.,
Di unc
nin (e.
la
de s
oa on
Br oluti
s
The convergence
of traditional and
alternative asset
management is
well underway
Alternative
Product
vehicle
Traditional
asset management
Registered
Liquid
Liquidity
Illiquid
The Mainstreaming of
Alternatives: Fueling the Next
Wave of Growth in Asset
Management, McKinsey &
Company, 2012.
institutional space.
25
The Trillion-Dollar Convergence: Capturing the Next Wave of Growth in Alternative Investments
Exhibit 15
Four successful
business
models are
emerging within
the alternatives
industry, each
with a unique
value
proposition
Wide
Single-strategy boutique
(2013 AUM: ~$2.9 trillion)
Specialist platform
(2013 AUM: ~$1.4 trillion)
Narrow
Low
Centralization of platform
High
vance in alternatives.
26
The Trillion-Dollar Convergence: Capturing the Next Wave of Growth in Alternative Investments
Exhibit 16
Specialist
boutiques are
losing share to
more scalable
business models,
as the
alternatives
industry matures
and
institutionalizes
Change, 2008-13
Percentage points
~$5.0T
~$7.2T
24
25
+1
10
15
+5
Specialist platforms
20
19
-2
41
-4
Single-strategy boutique
45
2008
1
2013
alternatives solutions.
one-stop shop for a full set of client investment needs. Unique strengths of
firms pursuing this model include the
The Trillion-Dollar Convergence: Capturing the Next Wave of Growth in Alternative Investments
natives market:
27
28
The Trillion-Dollar Convergence: Capturing the Next Wave of Growth in Alternative Investments
Thriving in the
Converging Alternatives
Market:
Six Imperatives for
Management
Asset managers with a meaningful alternatives franchise
and those seeking to build onewill need to make
deliberate choices about where to play and how to
position themselves in a rapidly evolving competitive
landscape. Six sets of actions are critical to defining and
executing a successful strategy in alternatives (Exhibit 17).
29
The Trillion-Dollar Convergence: Capturing the Next Wave of Growth in Alternative Investments
Exhibit 17
Six building
blocks of a
successful
alternatives
strategy
Aspirations
Drivers of
alternative
economics
Client
segmentation
and insights
Smart
distribution
Outcome-oriented
product strategy
Governance
and operating
model
30
The Trillion-Dollar Convergence: Capturing the Next Wave of Growth in Alternative Investments
incentivize it appropriately.
Distribution and client service will increasingly be critical for alternatives franchises
seeking growth.
5. Define an outcome-oriented product
strategy that clearly aligns investment
capabilities and strategies across the enterprise toward priority client investment
outcomes. For example, how does the
current product set and near-term pipeline
map against the core investor priorities of
growth, volatility management, inflation
protection, income generation and interest-rate risk mitigation? What role do alternatives play in the delivery of a broader
set of multi-asset investment solutions?
Pooneh Baghai
Onur Erzan
Cline Duftel
Ju-Hon Kwek
The authors would like to acknowledge the contributions of Kevin Cho, Sacha Ghai, Aly Jeddy,
Owen Jones, Bryce Klempner, Carrie McCabe, Gary Pinkus and Nancy Szmolyan to this report.
The Trillion-Dollar Convergence: Capturing the Next Wave of Growth in Alternative Investments
APPENDIX
Defining Alternative Investments
Definitions of alternative investments vary considerably because of the relative youth of
the category and the dynamic nature of the industry. For the purposes of this paper,
alternative investments are defined as a class of investments that offer return streams
with a fundamentally different set of correlations and/or risk-return profiles than traditional asset classes such as stocks, bonds and cash.
Exhibit A
Defining
alternative
investments
Hedge funds
(~$2.6 trillion global AUM)
Private equity
(~$2.1 trillion)
Real assets
(~$2.4 trillion)
Real estate
Long/short equity
Leveraged buyouts
Relative value
Growth investing
Infrastructure
Event-driven
Venture capital
Agricuture
Global macro
Mezzanine capital
Energy
Multi-strategy
Distressed
Commodities
At the core of alternatives sit three broad categories of investments. These are
sometimes referred to as institutional quality alternatives, because they are typical
of what would be held by sophisticated institutional investors, such as pension funds
or endowments.
Hedge Funds: A wide-ranging set of private investment vehicles that invest in the
public markets, typically employing strategies that involve leverage and the use of derivatives. Key hedge fund categories include equity long-short, relative value, event
driven, global macro and multi-strategy
Private equity: A set of closed-end investment vehicles with fixed lock-up periods
that invest in both equity and debt that are not publicly-traded. Key categories are
leveraged buy-outs, growth equity, venture capital, mezzanine financing and distressed investing.
31
32
The Trillion-Dollar Convergence: Capturing the Next Wave of Growth in Alternative Investments
assets through a variety of closed- and open-ended fund vehicles. Key categories include real estate, infrastructure, agriculture, timberland and energy. Commodities
which are sometimes classified as a distinct asset class are included in this category as well.
Beyond these individual asset classes, there is an additional layer of funds of funds
investment vehicles that provide broad exposure to a wide range of alternatives investment managers and strategies. The bulk of these vehicles are focused on hedge
funds, although there are meaningful fund of fund assets in private equity (and to a
lesser extent real assets). Multi-asset fund of funds that deliver broad-based exposure
across alternative asset classes are a small but emerging category.
The final category is retail alternatives. This refers to a broad array of strategies that
are designed to deliver alternatives exposure via registered retail vehicles, including
mutual funds, closed-end funds and exchange-traded funds. These registered retail
vehicles create restrictions on the underlying investment strategies that can be employed (e.g., liquidity requirements and restrictions on the use of derivatives and leverage), but provide managers with access to a broad base of retail investors.
33
The Trillion-Dollar Convergence: Capturing the Next Wave of Growth in Alternative Investments
Joe Ngai
Director, Hong Kong
joe_ngai@mckinsey.com
Kurt MacAlpine
Principal, New York
kurt_macalpine@mckinsey.com
Onur Erzan
Director, New York
onur_erzan@mckinsey.com
Frdric Vandenberghe
Director, Brussels
frederic_vandenberghe@mckinsey.com
Rogerio Mascarenhas
Principal, Sao Paulo
rogerio_mascarenhas@mckinsey.com
Martin Huber
Director, Dusseldorf
martin_huber@mckinsey.com
Gemma DAuria
Principal, Dubai
gemma_dauria@mckinsey.com
Fabrice Morin
Principal, Montreal
fabrice_moran@mckinsey.com
Philipp Koch
Director, Munich
philipp_koch@mckinsey.com
Cline Duftel
Principal, New York
celine_dufetel@mckinsey.com
Matteo Pacca
Principal, Paris
matteo_pacca@mckinsey.com
Alok Kshirsagar
Sebastien Lacroix
Director, Mumbai
Principal, Paris
alok_kshirsagar@mckinsey.com sebastien_lacroix@mckinsey.com
Jill Zucker
Principal, New York
jill_zucker@mckinsey.com
34
The Trillion-Dollar Convergence: Capturing the Next Wave of Growth in Alternative Investments
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