MSFIN 211 FINAL PAPER

Articona, Chrisostomo
Camagay, Daniel
Cortez, Victoria Anne
Mamaril, Franchelle Marie
Reyes, Mark Lorenzo
EFFECT OF OIL PRICES AND INTEREST RATES ON VEHICLE SALES
ABSTRACT
Vehicle sales in the Philippines has been growing continuously for the past years.
It is interesting to note the factors that drive this boost in the automotive
industry. In this paper, we discuss how the fluctuation in oil prices and interest
rates affect the elasticity of vehicle sales. We chose oil prices (crude oil prices
multiplied with the foreign exchange rate) as one of the drivers under the
assumption that low oil prices increase vehicle sales. 5-year Treasury bill rates
were used for the interest rates since we have considered that availability of
good financing options aids vehicle purchasing power.

INTRODUCTION
As the year 2015 nears its curtain call, it leaves a mark in history as another year
of prosperity for the automotive industry in the Philippines. In 2014, CAMPI
(Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines, Inc.) and TMA (Truck
Manufacturers Association) reported an unprecedented 30% growth aggregate
car sales for both commercial and passenger vehicles finishing the year with a
total of 234,747 units sold compared to 181,283 units in 2013.
While the final tally for total car sales for this year has yet to be announced, first
half sales have shown no signs of slowing down. In the first half of 2015, sales
had already increased 21% year-on-year. CAMPI President Atty. Rommel Gutierrez
expressed confidence in reaching year-end targets (a record breaking 310,000

units), explaining that the automotive industry is riding with the other industries
growth.
The impressive performance of the automotive industry in the Philippines has led
to many economic changes in the country. New players in the field of public
transportation such as Uber and GrabCar have enticed many people to avail of
cars and rent them out for public use. This way, the vehicle is able to eventually,
with the help of proper financing, pay for itself. This innovative system has
proved to be lucrative for aspiring car owners and commuters alike. This has
resulted in the increase in the volume of vehicles on the road in Metro Manila.
This became noticeable with the advent of last years oil crisis. From this
perspective, the rapid growth in car sales (and car ownership transitively), has
proven to be a double-edged sword and the need for more efficient
transportation has become more pressing.
In this study, we have investigated the effects of oil prices and interest rates on
the demand for vehicles (passenger and commercial) in the Philippines. These
two factors are chosen under certain economic assumptions. The first
assumption is that cheaper oil prices lead to more cars on the road. This
assumption is derived from the observation that after the steep drop in oil prices
in 2014, traffic in the Philippines had worsened. Second, that buying a car is
easier if there are good financing options available for the public. Financing
options are driven by the rates on Treasury bills. Third, that total car sales can
ultimately be translated to the demand for cars. It is also in this light that this
experiment may be useful for the automotive industry for business and
regulatory purposes.

DATA DESCRIPTION

Data was obtained from Bloomberg (using the Bloomberg Markets trading
platform) from Jan 1996 (earliest data observed) to Sept 2015 (latest data
observed) on a per month timeframe. tot_sales denotes the total vehicle sales
for the month which is the sum of monthly passenger vehicle sales and monthly
commercial vehicle sales. Crude and forex both denote the monthly close of the
WTI and USD/PHP indices, respectively. A limitation arose in obtaining the 5-year
Philippine government Treasury bill rate as the earliest data available was only
from Nov 2007 to Sept 2015. Thus, upon inclusion of _5yr_tbill_100, the
regression only uses data from Nov 2007 to Sept 2015 where variable is present.

CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK AND METHODOLOGY

A regression model was determined to be the main backbone of the study, with
oil prices and interest rates as the main regressors affecting car sales.

After

careful discretion, it was found that a log-log model was closest to the underlying
reality. The model is as follows:
log(Y) = b0 + b1*log(X1) + b2*log(X2) + ui
Before moving forward, a deeper understanding of the regressors must first be
disclosed.

A. The Relationship of Fuel Prices and Vehicle Sales

The first assumption in the model states that oil prices determine how much cars
are on the road. From this assumption, we can derive that if oil is cheap, then a
certain portion of the commuting public would resort to buying cars and drive
their own cars for purposes of practicality.
Figure 1. Crude Oil Prices (Jan1996 - Sept 2015)

Crude_Oil

*Source: Bloomberg
The Fuels Institute (2015) discusses the general relationship between the
propensity to buy a car and the volatility of gas prices to be negatively correlated
(having negative elasticity). Figure 1 shows that the price of crude oil reached a
peak of $140/barrel in June 2008 when the demand for the commodity was
highest (during this time demand from Asia, particularly the fast-paced growth of
China and the stagnation of oil production from middle eastern states were the
key drivers for crude oil price appreciation) and drastically declined to almost
$40/barrel in January 2009 post the (sub-prime) financial crisis of 2008 - a 71%
decrease over the span of 6 months (Ro 2014).

Currently, the price of crude oil has reverted to this level after recovering
slightly in the past years. Meanwhile, sales of both passenger and commercial
vehicles in the Philippines rose to unprecedented highs during this period (see
Figure 2).

Figure 2. Vehicle Sales - Passenger, Commercial, and Total (Jan 1996 Sept 2015)

Tot_Sales

Pass_Sales

Comm_Sales

*Source: Bloomberg
It can be seen in the data that total vehicle sales in the Philippines was only
slightly affected by the 2008 crisis. According to Guinigundo (2009), the
domestic markets of EM Asia were somehow insulated from the shocks of the
crisis which would explain the slight decrease in total vehicle sales.

In the

financial markets, however, this will lead to a different story and one which can
explain the steep rise of vehicle sales moving forward.

B. The Relationship of Interest Rates and Vehicle Sales

The second assumption claims that financing options are driven by interest rates.
This is an accurate assumption considering manufacturers are always tied with
financial institutions for their offerings. Flexible loans are now readily available
for those qualified. The attractiveness of buying a car though mainly is founded
upon whether or not one can afford it and the financial support from the banks
make this possible. This banks on the mantra that favourable interest rates lead
to favourable financing. But what constitutes favourable interest rates?
Figure 3. 5-yr PHL T-bill Yield, in percent (Nov 2007 to Sept 2015)

5yr_Tbill

Source* Bloomberg
Chisasa (2013) lists "higher costs when buying on credit" as one of the major
decision points prospective auto buyers consider when buying an automobile. In
particular, the relationship between interest rates and the propensity to buy a
car is also negative (having negative elasticity). Furthermore, Chisasa (2013)
found that consumers prefer contracts with lower payment streams even if it
means paying a higher total cost; thus, a longer borrowing tenor is preferred.
This relationship can also be seen in the local setting. Guinigundo (2009) notes
that the crisis of 2008 had a large effect on interest rate yields, in sovereign
bonds and government securities but started to normalize thus after as inflation
started to cool off. Benchmark interest rates in the Philippines (the 5-year T-bill
rate is used for this purpose) was on a downward trend since the financial crisis
of 2008 currently at ~3.49% almost 2.9 percentage points down from its high of
6.35% during the crisis (Figure 3). As stated in the previous section, domestic
vehicle sales rose significantly during this period.

C. Empirical Framework (Model Specification)

Finally we go back to the model. Following the ideas presented in other studies,
Hypotheses are formulated. Since the study purposes to find the link between

car sales and crude oil prices and interest rates (negative relationship), the
following hypotheses are created:
H0(interest rates): interest rates have a negative and significant influence in car sales
H1(interest

rates)

: interest rates do not have a negative and significant influence in

car sales
H0(crude

oil)

: the price of crude oil has a negative and significant influence in car

sales
H1(crude oil): the price of crude oil does not have negative and significant influence
in car sales
Like earlier mentioned, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) is used to estimate the
general specification of the model below:
log(Y) = b0 + b1*log(X1) + b2*log(X2) + ui
And the hypothesized model is therefore,
log(tot_sales) = b0 + b1*log(crude_forex) + b2*log(_5yr_100) + ui
where,
tot_sales

total domestic vehicle sales (passenger and

commercial)
crude_forex =

price of crude oil (WTI) * USD/PHP exchange rate; the

variables crude (which denotes $/barrel of West Texas

Intermediate crude used as a benchmark in oil pricing) is
multiplied by the variable forex (which denotes the USD/PHP
exchange rate) to eliminate any multicollinearities that may
arise from the two variables
_5yr_100

5-year Philippine Treasury Bill benchmark rate (in

percent) / 100
A log-log model is used in order to denote the elasticity of the dependent
variable with respect to the regressors.

RESULTS
Unit Root Test
Tables 1-3 (in Appendix) show the ADF test results for the variables tot_sales,
crude_forex, and _5yr_100 which is summarized in Table 1-3.1 below:
Table 1-3.1
Augmented Dickey-Fuller
ADF t-stat 1%
5%
-

10%

tot_sales
crude_for

0.677175

3.45949

2.87426
-

-2.57363

ex

-2.114348

-3.4581
-

2.87365
-

-2.5733

_5yr_100

-1.338364

3.50145

2.89254

-2.58337

Variable

The results show that all three variables contain a unit root and thus are nonstationary (ADF t-stat > critical values). To correct for non-stationarity, we have
obtained the first difference of crude_forex (Table 4) and _5yr_100 (Table 5).
tot_sales becomes non-stationary after getting the second difference (Table 6).
Table 4-6.1
Augmented Dickey-Fuller (first and second
ADF

difference)
t-

Variable

stat

1%
-

5%

10%

D(tot_sales,

3.4594

2)
D(crude_forex

9.54987
-

2.87426
-

2.57363

, 1)
D(_5yr_100,

11.5714
-

-3.4581
-

2.87365
-

-2.5733
-

1)

9.64399

3.5022

2.89288

2.58355

Discussion of the Results of the Regression

The model was estimated using OLS and White heteroskedasticity-consistent
standard errors and covariance to correct for the presence of heteroskedasticity
(see Table 7 for full test results). A summary of Table 7 is shown in Table 7.1
below:
Table 7.1
Elasticity of Vehicle Sales w.r.t. Crude Oil and 5-yr T-bill Rates
coefficient
std. error
t-stat
p-value

9.914485
0.729054
13.59911*
0*
crude_forex
-0.2436
0.084159
-2.894539*
0.0047*
_5yr_100
-0.527788
0.062774
-8.407792*
0*
*significant at 5% level
At first glance, the regressors seem to be significant at the 5% significance level.
The model also seems to be a good fit with R 2 = 0.472882. However, the test
also yielded a low Durbin-Watson statistic of 0.386853, well below the lower
bound of the model's Durbin-Watson critical interval, i.e. (D L, DU) = (1.623, 1.703)
which meant serial autocorrelation is present among the variables. This was
corrected by adjusting for AR(1) which yielded results in Table 8 and summarized
in Table 8.1 below.
Table 8.1
Introduction of Lagged Variables AR(1) to correct for Serial AC
coefficient
std. error
t-stat
p-value

9.82903
0.989602
9.93231
0
crude_forex
-0.446054
0.202422
-2.203589*
0.0301*
crude_forex
(lag)
_5yr_100
_5yr_100 (lag)

0.209827
-0.198246
-0.338275

0.207093
0.234077
0.243462

1.013202
-0.846928
-1.389438

0.3137
0.3993
0.1682

*significant at 5% level
The new regression shows that correcting for serial autocorrelation, only the
variable crude_forex is significant at the 5% level. However, the model now has a
higher R2 = 0.483131 but a lower Adjusted R 2 = 0.459901 due to the addition of
variables.

CONCLUSION
Based on the results obtained, we can say that almost 50% of the change in
demand for cars can be explained by the elasticity of oil prices and interest
rates. Also, after considering autocorrelation, the crude_forex variable is
considered to be significant, while the _5yr_100 variable is rendered to be
insignificant. Thus, we reject the HO for _5yr_100 and accept Ho for crude_forex.
Possible reasons for the low correlation could arise from the lack of drastic
changes in the regressors. It is possible that the model may provide more
substantial results if 2015 data is included. These results are conclusive at 5%
confidence level and are subject to the limitation of the model. So in part, we
recommend that further refinement of the model be done by introducing new
factors that drive vehicle sales.

SOURCES
Fuels Institute, Fuel Prices and Auto Sales: A Five Year Persective 2015. 2015
Ro, Sam. Business Insider (www.businessinsider.com).
http://www.businessinsider.com/annotated-history-crude-oil-prices-since-18612014-12. December 19, 2014.
Guinigundo, Diwa C. The impact of the global financial crisis on the Philippine
financial system an assessment. 2009.
Scully, Matt and Bloomberg. Interest rate hike could cripple auto sales, increase
loan risk. Chicago Tribute (www.chicagotribune.com).
http://www.chicagotribune.com/classified/automotive/ct-interest-rate-hike-couldcripple-auto-sales-20151013-story.html. October 13, 2015.
Chisasa, Joseph and Winnie Dlamini. An Empirical Analysis Of The Interest RateVehicle Purchase Decision Nexus
CAMPI,.
'2014
Another
Banner
Year
For
The
Automotive'.
http://www.campiauto.org/2014-another-banner-year-automotive-industry/.
November 29, 2015

N.p.,

Santos, Nina. '2015: The Year When The Oil Crisis Finally Comes To An End'.
CNNMoney. N.p., http://money.cnn.com/2014/12/05/news/economy/oil-powershift//. Web . November 29, 2015
Santos, Nina. '2015: The Year When The Oil Crisis Finally Comes To An End'.
CNNMoney. N.p., http://www.philstar.com/business/2015/07/10/1475095/vehiclesales-zoom-21-first-half. Web . November 29, 2015

APPENDIX
Null Hypothesis: TOT_SALES has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 12 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=14)

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic

Test critical values:
1% level
5% level
10% level

t-Statistic

Prob.*

0.677175
-3.459494
-2.874258
-2.573625

0.9914

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(TOT_SALES)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/29/15 Time: 16:40
Sample (adjusted): 1997M02 2015M09
Included observations: 224 after adjustments
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

TOT_SALES(-1)
D(TOT_SALES(-1))
D(TOT_SALES(-2))
D(TOT_SALES(-3))
D(TOT_SALES(-4))
D(TOT_SALES(-5))
D(TOT_SALES(-6))
D(TOT_SALES(-7))
D(TOT_SALES(-8))
D(TOT_SALES(-9))
D(TOT_SALES(-10))
D(TOT_SALES(-11))
D(TOT_SALES(-12))
C

0.012657
-0.263672
-0.223555
-0.023670
-0.041631
0.081967
0.024579
0.185510
0.014649
0.066979
-0.119476
-0.072486
0.415410
-63.86862

0.018692
0.068252
0.069892
0.070629
0.070646
0.070869
0.070658
0.070976
0.071822
0.071911
0.072468
0.070641
0.066746
198.1396

0.677175
-3.863212
-3.198582
-0.335128
-0.589289
1.156601
0.347860
2.613687
0.203964
0.931412
-1.648678
-1.026114
6.223784
-0.322341

0.4990
0.0001
0.0016
0.7379
0.5563
0.2487
0.7283
0.0096
0.8386
0.3527
0.1007
0.3060
0.0000
0.7475

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0.442639
0.408136
949.2676
1.89E+08
-1846.289
12.82891
0.000000

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat

68.65625
1233.894
16.60972
16.82295
16.69579
1.960348

Table 2. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test (crude_forex)

Null Hypothesis: CRUDE_FOREX has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 1 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=14)

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic

Test critical values:
1% level
5% level
10% level

t-Statistic

Prob.*

-2.114348
-3.458104
-2.873648
-2.573298

0.2393

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(CRUDE_FOREX)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/29/15 Time: 16:56
Sample (adjusted): 1996M03 2015M09
Included observations: 235 after adjustments
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

CRUDE_FOREX(-1)
D(CRUDE_FOREX(-1))
C

-0.024277
0.277736
65.93739

0.011482
0.062861
33.17643

-2.114348
4.418273
1.987477

0.0356
0.0000
0.0480

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0.089642
0.081794
247.7985
14245749
-1627.406
11.42243
0.000019

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat

6.791082
258.6001
13.87579
13.91996
13.89360
2.012925

Table 3. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test (_5yr_100)

Null Hypothesis: _5YR_100 has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=11)

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic

Test critical values:
1% level
5% level
10% level

t-Statistic

Prob.*

-1.338364
-3.501445
-2.892536
-2.583371

0.6089

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(_5YR_100)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/29/15 Time: 16:57
Sample (adjusted): 2007M12 2015M09
Included observations: 94 after adjustments
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

_5YR_100(-1)
C

-0.037655
0.001539

0.028135
0.001445

-1.338364
1.065106

0.1841
0.2896

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0.019098
0.008436
0.004245
0.001658
381.0561
1.791218
0.184076

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat

-0.000304
0.004263
-8.065023
-8.010910
-8.043165
1.939425

Table 4. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test D(tot_sales, 2)

Null Hypothesis: D(TOT_SALES,2) has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 10 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=14)

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic

Test critical values:
1% level
5% level
10% level

t-Statistic

Prob.*

-9.549873
-3.459494
-2.874258
-2.573625

0.0000

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(TOT_SALES,3)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/29/15 Time: 17:14
Sample (adjusted): 1997M02 2015M09
Included observations: 224 after adjustments
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

D(TOT_SALES(-1),2)
D(TOT_SALES(-1),3)
D(TOT_SALES(-2),3)
D(TOT_SALES(-3),3)
D(TOT_SALES(-4),3)
D(TOT_SALES(-5),3)
D(TOT_SALES(-6),3)
D(TOT_SALES(-7),3)
D(TOT_SALES(-8),3)
D(TOT_SALES(-9),3)

-10.85351
8.656664
7.307450
6.009580
4.751808
3.661046
2.685654
1.987669
1.395521
0.956150

1.136509
1.113096
1.059961
0.971783
0.857408
0.718888
0.572194
0.420463
0.279834
0.155139

-9.549873
7.777101
6.894074
6.184076
5.542064
5.092655
4.693606
4.727340
4.986961
6.163197

0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000

D(TOT_SALES(-10),3)
C
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0.477587
33.11817
0.931914
0.928382
959.8730
1.95E+08
-1849.839
263.7933
0.000000

0.062360
64.16153

7.658507
0.516169

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat

0.0000
0.6063
48.10714
3586.754
16.62356
16.80633
16.69734
2.005814

Table 5. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test D(crude_forex, 1)

Null Hypothesis: D(CRUDE_FOREX) has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=14)

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic

Test critical values:
1% level
5% level
10% level

t-Statistic

Prob.*

-11.57143
-3.458104
-2.873648
-2.573298

0.0000

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(CRUDE_FOREX,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/29/15 Time: 17:14
Sample (adjusted): 1996M03 2015M09
Included observations: 235 after adjustments
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

D(CRUDE_FOREX(-1))
C

-0.731148
4.689091

0.063186
16.29202

-11.57143
0.287815

0.0000
0.7737

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0.364946
0.362221
249.6371
14520254
-1629.648
133.8980
0.000000

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat

-1.027302
312.5892
13.88637
13.91581
13.89824
2.004897

Table 6. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test D(_5yr_100, 1)

Null Hypothesis: D(_5YR_100) has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=11)

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic

Test critical values:
1% level
5% level
10% level

t-Statistic

Prob.*

-9.643989
-3.502238
-2.892879
-2.583553

0.0000

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(_5YR_100,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/29/15 Time: 17:11
Sample (adjusted): 2008M01 2015M09
Included observations: 93 after adjustments
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

D(_5YR_100(-1))
C

-0.999857
-0.000237

0.103677
0.000443

-9.643989
-0.535756

0.0000
0.5934

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0.505452
0.500018
0.004260
0.001652
376.6809
93.00652
0.000000

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat

8.01E-05
0.006025
-8.057655
-8.003190
-8.035663
2.010544

Table 7. OLS Regression Result; log-log

Dependent Variable: LOG(TOT_SALES)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/29/15 Time: 15:26
Sample (adjusted): 2007M11 2015M09
Included observations: 95 after adjustments
LOG(TOT_SALES) = C(1) + C(2)*LOG(CRUDE_FOREX) + C(3)
*LOG(_5YR_100)

C(1)
C(2)
C(3)

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

9.914485
-0.243600
-0.527788

0.729054
0.084159
0.062774

13.59911
-2.894539
-8.407792

0.0000
0.0047
0.0000

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0.472882
0.461423
0.199473
3.660625
19.87238
41.26693
0.000000

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat

9.537419
0.271806
-0.355208
-0.274559
-0.322620
0.386853

Table 8. Correcting for Autocorrelation using AR(1)

Dependent Variable: LOG(TOT_SALES)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/29/15 Time: 16:02
Sample (adjusted): 2007M12 2015M09
Included observations: 94 after adjustments
White heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors & covariance
LOG(TOT_SALES) = C(1) + C(2)*LOG(CRUDE_FOREX) + C(3)
*LOG(CRUDE_FOREX(-1)) + C(4)*LOG(_5YR_100) + C(5)
*LOG(_5YR_100(-1))

C(1)
C(2)
C(3)
C(4)
C(5)
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
Prob(Wald F-statistic)

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

9.829030
-0.446054
0.209827
-0.198246
-0.338275

0.989602
0.202422
0.207093
0.234077
0.243462

9.932310
-2.203589
1.013202
-0.846928
-1.389438

0.0000
0.0301
0.3137
0.3993
0.1682

0.483131
0.459901
0.199715
3.549844
20.61016
20.79768
0.000000
0.000000

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
Wald F-statistic

9.540349
0.271752
-0.332131
-0.196850
-0.277487
0.436019
22.80194