Professional Documents
Culture Documents
1 .0 5
1 .0 0
169 Synergistic sponsor interest gives competitive edge. CLT is the
0 .9 5 119
only industrial Sreit with a sponsor whose business operations are
0 .9 0 synergistic with the trust. Its competitive strength lies in its large
0 .8 5
69
presence in the ramp-up logistics warehouse space in Singapore
0 .8 0 19 while sponsor CWT’s ability to offer a complete logistics solutions
package to leading 3PLs in Singapore and Asia Pacific encourages
A p r-1 0
C a c h e L o g is t ic s T r u s t (L H S ) R e la t iv e S T I IN D E X (R H S )
“tenant stickiness” within CLT’s properties. The alliance with
ARA will also add to its financial and capital markets skillset.
Forecasts and Valuation
Assuming S$100m of acquisitions in our forecasts. CLT’s
FY Dec (S$ m) 2010F* 2011F 2012F current gearing of c26% empowers the trust with a debt-funded
Gross Revenue 37 68 69 war-chest of cS$100m to a gearing limit of 35%, given its non-
Net Property Inc 36 67 68 credit rating status. On top of a ready pipeline from sponsor
Total Return 43 47 48 rd
CWT and C&P, the manager is looking at 3 party opportunities.
Distribution Inc 33 52 54
EPU (S cts) 4.2 7.3 7.5 We have assumed an additional S$100m of acquisitions at 8.0%
EPU Gth (%) n.a. 76 3 net property income yields in our numbers contributing from
DPU (S cts) 5.2 8.2 8.4 FY11 onwards.
DPU Gth (%) n.a. 57 3
NAV per shr (S cts) 86.2 84.8 83.4 Initiate with BUY, TP S$1.05 based on DDM. FY10-11F yields
PE (X) 22.8 13.0 12.6
Distribution Yield (%) 8.0** 8.6 8.8
of 8.0-8.6% which offers up to180 bps above the Sreit sector
P/NAV (x) 1.1 1.1 1.1 average of 6.9-7.2% and 560 bps above the 10 year bond yield,
Aggregate Leverage (%) 26.1 35.6 36.2 is attractive considering its sturdy earnings structure with limited
ROAE (%) 9.6 8.6 8.9 earnings downside. Catalysts for re-rating will hinge on CLT
acquiring assets to grow its asset base and earnings.
Consensus DPU (S cts): 6.4 8.4 8.5
www.dbsvickers.com
Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
sa: YM
Company Focus
Cache Logistics Trust
A showcase quality portfolio of logistics properties. Its initial Acquisition growth opportunities underpinned by well-
portfolio comprises 3.86msf GFA valued at S$729.9m, defined pipeline, S$100m worth of injections assumed.
97.3% of the space comprises ramp-up buildings with an Inorganic growth potential is underscored by the right of
average age of 2.1 years. An estimated 94.1% of the first refusals (ROFR) for the sponsor CWT’s, and C&P’s assets.
portfolio GFA is occupied by end-users, of which 85.2% are Based on the existing development pipeline, there is an
MNCs and come from the consumer, commodities estimated pool of 11 properties with a potential to be
/chemicals, food and cold storage, aerospace, courier, developed into an estimated 3msf of GFA or c78% of CLT’s
healthcare and hospitality sectors. Notable names include initial portfolio. This has not taken into account potential
DHL, Schenker, TNT and Nippon Express. third party assets that could be transacted. With a gearing
level of c26% after acquiring the initial portfolio & without a
Low beta proxy play in the growing logistics market. The credit rating in the near term, Cache’s gearing capacity
logistics industry is projected to grow to 13% of Singapore’s would be limited to 35%, implying an additional debt
GDP in 2012 from 9% in 2008, with an estimated 8.6-16% headroom of S$100 m, which we have assumed to be
CAGR in the freight forwarding and contract logistics utilised for new acquisitions in our numbers.
segments from 2007-2011. CLT is well positioned to benefit
from this projected growth given the good location of its Offering complete logistics solutions package. CLT stands
properties within the major logistics centers situated in out as the only industrial Sreit with a sponsor whose
Singapore’s east and west coasts. Simultaneously, the supply business operations are synergistic with the trust. CLT will be
of logistics real estate is expected to expand by a lower able to benefit from CWT’s expertise, experience and
CAGR of 3.5% from 2007-2011, underpinning the positive knowledge of the logistics and warehousing market in
outlook on rental rates and capital values of logistics Singapore and Asia Pacific as well as leverage on established
warehouse space. networks and relationships with major global logistics service
providers. In addition, the trust can also benefit from ARA’s
Highest yield protection amongst Sreits, backed by a broad network across the region. Apart from having a ready
combination of income stability and growth. CLT offers platform to leverage on the rapidly growing logistics sector,
strong earnings visibility backed by a triple net master lease these competitive advantages could provide CLT with a first
structure with inbuilt step-up rental clauses of 1.5% pa. CLT mover advantage when assessing real estate solutions for its
has the longest WALE of 6.4 years compared to other tenants, in our view.
industrial Sreits of up to 5 years, offering investors greater
income stability. Given the secured income stream from the Key risks that could impact CLT’s future distributions include
6.4 years weighted average lease expiry profile in the master operating risks such as (i) CLT’s ability to maintain current
lease agreement, CLT’s revenues are well protected. Hence, rentals during renewals given its single asset class exposure
this will provide strong yield protection for investors. which is facing increasing competition from other
warehouse owners locally and regionally, (ii) its heavy
dependence on its Sponsor when renegotiating its master
lease arrangement due to limited access to end user tenants
and (iii) interest rate volatility, which could result in higher
interest expenses.
Page 2
Company Focus
Cache Logistics Trust
SWOT Analysis
Strengths Weakness
• Leveraging on the expertise of ARA and CWT. CLT has the • Tenant concentration risk. Having all its income under the
advantage of being able to leverage on ARA Asset master lease arrangement with CWT and C&P means that
Management’s Reit management expertise and in having CLT’s revenues are dependent on CWT and C&P’s ability
CWT Limited, one of Asia’s leading integrated logistics to make regular rental payments. However, (i) given the
providers as a sponsor, allowing CLT to tap on their long operating history of both master lessees and their
respective networks and relationships to source for potential leading positions in the logistics industry and (ii) the
acquisition opportunities of logistics properties in the Asia recovery of Singapore’s economy points towards an
Pacific. expansion in trade activities. As such, it is unlikely that the
master lessees will be unable to pay their contracted rents.
• Operator-owned warehouses. Being in the logistics business Furthermore, the considerable 12-month security deposits
and as an operator of warehouses, CWT has accumulated over the duration of the lease tenure provides further
considerable knowledge of logistics users’ requirements and downside protection.
experience in developing and managing logistics properties.
• Single asset class. Having a portfolio comprising primarily
• Properties are located in key logistic hubs. CLT’s properties ramp-up logistics warehouses means exposure to
enjoy strong underlying demand from end-users given prime increased volatility and risk in relation to demand from end
locations in Penjuru and Changi, which are located in close users. This compares to a portfolio that consists of other
proximity to Singapore’s sea and air ports. In addition, the industrial asset classes which may offer better
ability of end users to drive their delivery vehicles into all diversification.
floors is a critical selling point given enhanced cost efficiency
and quicker turnaround time. • Single market exposure. CLT’s properties are located in
Singapore, which puts it at risk to a prolonged downturn
• Ownership of unique warehouses. CLT is in possession of 2 in the economic performance of Singapore.
high quality warehouses in CWT Commodity Hub and CWT
Cold Hub. The former is the largest ramp-up facility in South • Lack of credit rating currently limits gearing to 35%. CLT
East Asia and is an approved warehouse from the London will not have a credit rating in the immediate term
Metal Exchange (LME), which generates extra demand for meaning it is limited to a gearing of up to 35% (debt/
space there. CWT Cold Hub on the other hand, is the only asset ratio) compared to 60% if it has obtained a rating.
ramp-up cold storage facility in Singapore, offering unbroken The initial gearing ratio of 25.5% will mean lesser debt
cold chain access. funding capacity to fund future acquisitions.
Opportunities Threats
• Visible pipeline for growth. CLT’s sponsor, CWT as well as • Competitive warehouses and new supply of ramp-up
C&P have given the Reit Right of First Refusals (ROFR) on 13 warehouses. CWT’s warehouses are located in various
properties located in the Asia Pacific region. This translates logistics hubs in Singapore where there are other
into a total net lettable area of over 3msf, which represents competing warehouses. In addition, with a further 1.5msf
78% of the initial portfolio. of new inventory to be completed over the next 2 years
resulting in new space, CLT faces the threat of increased
• Development expertise. Through the years, CWT has built pressure on rental rates.
warehouses to meet the incremental demand for space in
the Asia Pacific region. CLT will be able to tap on this
expertise to engage in potential development activities to
further deliver incremental returns to unitholders.
Page 3
Company Focus
Cache Logistics Trust
Trust Structure
Property manager. The property manager of CLT is Cache
Logistics focused trust. Cache Logistics Trust is a Singapore Property Management Pte Ltd, which is 40% owned by ARA
based real estate investment trust (S-Reit) established with and 60% owned by CWT. The property manager provides
the objective of investing in real estate used for logistics property management, lease management and project
purposes in Asia-Pacific, as well as real estate-related assets. management services to the trust.
CLT aims to generate regular and stable distributions to Ownership Structure of Asset Manager and Property
Manager
unitholders and to achieve long-term growth in distributions
per unit (“DPU”) and net asset value per unit, while
Asset Manager
maintaining an appropriate capital structure. 60% 40%
Trust Structure
Unitholders
Management
Services Trustee Fee
Manager Trustee
Cache Logistics Trust (CLT)
Management Acts on behalf of
Fee unitholders
Net property income Ownership of assets
Property
Management
Services
Property Properties
Manager
1) CWT Commodity Hub
Property 2) CWT Cold Hub
Management 3) Schenker Megahub
Fee 4) C&P Changi Districentre
5) Hi – Speed Logistics Centre
6) C&P Changi DC II
Page 4
Company Focus
Cache Logistics Trust
CCT
0.3%
Reit Management Manager Units and/ Base Fee: 0.5% p.a. of the value of consolidated assets (defined as total assets)
Fee or Cash Performance Fee: 1.5% p.a. of CLT’s Net Property Income
Acquisition Fee Manager Units and/ 1.0% of acquisition price paid including acquisition costs. To be pro-rated if
or Cash applicable to proportion of CLT’s interest
Divestment Fee Manager Units and/ 0.5% of sale price of any real estate sold or divested. To be pro-rated if
or Cash applicable to the proportion of CLT’s interest.
Project Property Cash For redevelopments/ developments, retrofitting and renovation of Singapore
Management Manager properties:
Fee - 3.0% of construction cost if costs are $2.0m or less
- Higher of S$60k or 2.0% of construction cost if costs are between $2.0m to
$20m
- Higher of $400k or 1.5% of construction cost if costs are between $20m to
$50m
- Fees mutually agreed between Manager, Trustee and Property Manager if
construction costs exceed $50m
Trustee Trustee Cash 0.03% p.a. on value of deposited property, subject to a minimum of S$15k per
Fee month and a maximum of 0.25% p.a. of value of deposited property, excluding
out of pocket expenses and GST
One-time inception fee of S$50k
Source: Manager, DBS Vickers
Page 5
Company Focus
Cache Logistics Trust
CWT is one of Southeast Asia’s largest logistics operators. One of largest asset managers in Asia ex-Japan. ARA is an
Established in 1970, CWT with its customized integrated Asian real estate fund management group listed on the SGX.
logistics capabilities, large scale warehousing facilities and Established in July 2002 by ARA Group CEO, John Lim, and
global distribution network, is one of the region’s leading Cheung Kong (Holdings) Limited, ARA’s assets under
logistics players. CWT’s principal businesses comprise management has grown substantially from $0.6 billion as of
integrated logistics solutions and international freight 31 Dec 2003 to $12.5bn as of 30 Sept 2009.
forwarding, as well as engineering maintenance and facilities
management services. Manages 5 Reits in 3 countries. ARA has an established track
record of managing publicly-listed Reits in Singapore, Hong
“Total logistics” solutions. CWT’s logistics strategy lies in the Kong and Malaysia with a diversified portfolio spanning office,
group’s holistic approach in providing a comprehensive range retail and industrial/office sectors. The publicly-listed Reits
of logistics solutions and complementary logistics services to currently managed by ARA are Suntec Reit (listed in
other logistics players such as DHL, Fedex, Schenker and Singapore), Fortune Reit (listed in Singapore), Prosperity Reit
Nippon Express. CWT offers close connectivity to support its (listed in Hong Kong) and AmFIRST Reit (listed in Malaysia).
customers’ global operations and supply chain management
requirements, making it a leader in many of the markets in Leverage on ARA’s capital markets expertise. The trust can also
which it participates whilst at the same time is able to establish benefit from ARA’s broad network across the region. Apart
and maintain strong relationships with its clientele from having a ready platform to leverage on the rapidly
growing logistics sector, these competitive advantages could
Operator backed REIT. CLT differentiates itself with provide CLT with a first mover advantage when assessing real
competitors with an operator as its sponsor and will be able to estate solutions for its tenants, in our view
benefit from CWT’s expertise, experience and knowledge of
the logistics and warehousing market in Singapore and Asia
Pacific as well as leverage on established networks and
relationships with major global logistics service providers. As
such, we believe that tenants will tend to be stickier to CLT
assets when compared to other pure space providers
Page 6
Company Focus
Cache Logistics Trust
Director & Head of Director & Head of Asset Finance Manager Investor Relations
Investment Management Ms Serina Lim Lan Hong Manager
Mr Ho Jiann Ching Mr Foo Say Chuang Ms Lum Yuen May
Source: Manager
Page 7
Company Focus
Cache Logistics Trust
CLT’s asset portfolio The largest component of CLT’s portfolio by GFA and value is
CWT Commodity Hub, accounting for 59.5% of portfolio GFA
Quality, well-located property portfolio. CLT stands out with its and 44% of value. CWT Cold Hub makes up 9% of GFA but
good quality, niche portfolio of primarily ramp-up logistics contributes 18% of property value as refrigerated facilities
warehouse properties. The portfolio comprises 6 buildings with typically command higher market values. The remaining 4
3.86msf of GFA. 97.3% of its portfolio by GFA comprises of properties make up 31-38% of GFA and portfolio value.
ramp-up logistics properties. The average age of its properties
is approximately 2.12 years. The buildings are located near the Breakdown of CLT Portfolio by GFA
hub of sea and air logistics activities, which will ensure Schenker
continued demand for their warehouse space. Cold Hub 11% Changi DC
9% 9%
Hi-Speed Log
Property Portfolio
8%
Changi DC II
3%
Commodity
Hub
Source: Manager 60%
Hi-Speed Log
10%
Cold Hub
18% Changi DC II
3%
Source: Manager
Commodity
Hub
44%
Source: Manager
Property Portfolio
Property CWT Commodity CWT Cold Hub Schenker C&P Changi Hi-Speed Logistics C&P Changi DC Total/
Hub Megahub Districentre Centre II Average
Asset Class Ramp-Up logistics Ramp-up cold Ramp-Up logistics Ramp-Up logistics Ramp-Up logistics Cargo-lift logistics
facility storage logistics facility facility facility facility
facility
Land lease tenure LH 29 yrs from 19 LH 30+30 yrs from LH 30+30yrs from LH 30+30 yrs from LH 30+30 yrs from LH 30+30 yrs
Aug 2006 20 Dec 2005 1 Jun 2005 16 Aug 2005 16 Aug 2005 from 16 Feb 1996
GFA (msf) 2.30 0.34 0.44 0.36 0.31 0.11 3.86
Average Valuation 325.5 129.6 101.0 83.3 70.8 19.8 729.9
($m)
Purchase Price 323.0 122.0 99.0 82.0 69.5 17.7 713.2
(S$m)
Price ($psf) 141 357 225 225 225 167 185
Initial Annual Rent - 28.9 9.8 7.4 6.1 5.2 1.5 58.9
Triple Net ($m)
Initial Yield (%) 9.0% 8.1% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 8.6% 8.3%
Lease Term (years) 5 - 10 years 5 years over 6 years 5 years over 6 years 5 years 6.4 years
Occupancy (%) 90.6 94.4 100 100 100 79.4
Source: Manager, DBS Vickers
Page 8
Company Focus
Cache Logistics Trust
Catching logistics cycle at a low. CLT’s properties are valued at Driving value and growth
$729.9m or an average $189psf of GFA. Excluding CWT Cold
Hub, which carries a higher value of $379psf ($129.6m), the CLT’s business model has two major drivers of growth – from
average cost of the remaining assets is $171psf. organic means as well as through acquisitions. We expect near
term earnings to be organically driven and new acquisitions to
propel medium-term improvement.
In assessing the underlying capital value, we believe another
way of comparing capital values vis a vis other industrial Reits
Inbuilt organic growth from master lease – 1.5% p.a. CLT
would be to look at initial yields. The properties were
differs from other industrial Sreits in terms of its rental
purchased at net initial yields of between 7.5-9.0%, reflecting
structure. It derives income from master leases from its 6
levels during the 2005-2006 era, before the sharp yield
logistics properties. The master lease provides stable income
compression of the 2007-1H08 period.
with an in-built growth component. Under the terms of the
Selected Logistics Property Transactions agreement, CLT will buy and lease back the properties to
Date Property Company Initial yield
sponsors CWT and C&P for a triple net master lease amounting
Sep 05 Senkee Log Hub P1 Areit 7.2% to $58.9m in the first year. There is an annual rental escalation
Oct 05 1 Changi Sth Lane Areit 7.6% of 1.5% over the preceding year’s rent. The weighted average
Oct 05 Logishub@Clementi Areit 8.0% lease expiry profile is 6.4 years.
Nov 05 JEL Centre Areit 7.3%*
Jun 06 Logistics 21 Areit 6.6%*
Jun 06 Sembawang Kimtrans Log Centre Areit 6.9%* CLT Existing Revenue Profile
Oct 06 Jurong Log Hub MLT 6.7%* 70
Dec 07 Goldin Log Hub Areit 6.0%* 60
Mar 08 Sim Siang Choon Bldg Areit 6.1%*
Apr 08 Sealogistics MLT 7.9% 50
Jun 08 Menlo (Boon Lay Way) MLT 7.9% 40
Jun 08 Menlo (Benoi) MLT 8.4%
30
Dec 09 SH Cogent Logistics (Penjuru) MLT 9.0%
Note: * denotes estimated annualised net property income yields derived from 20
deducting estimated property management fees payable from annualised gross
revenue in Yr 1 over purchase price 10
0
Source: Various companies, DBS Vickers 10F 11F 12F 13F 14F 15F
Base rent Ann escalation
Source: DBS Vickers
The outlook for the logistics-warehousing sector remains
positive given the strong demand and limited supply outlook. Under the triple net lease structure, the Master Lessee will be
According to URA statistics, in general, multi-user warehouse responsible for ongoing property expenses such as land rent,
capital values had declined 24% from the peak in mid 2008 property tax, insurance, day-to-day maintenance (cleaning,
and are back to 2004 level while rentals have retraced 20% security, utilities, servicing of lifts and other M&E items).
from the peak to early 2007 levels. With the improving CLT’s responsibility would include structural repairs,
economic outlook and the projected strong growth in the replacement of structural parts, replacement of M&E items.
logistics sector, the logistics warehouse property sector has To this end, management expects to spend a capex of
stabilized is poised to remain robust going forward $1.7m over 2010 and 2011.
Page 9
Company Focus
Cache Logistics Trust
Mitigating tenant concentration risk. Although CWT and Master Lessees’ Direct Counterparty as % of Occupied GFA
C&P are the master lessees with CLT, there is minimal risk of
CWT related
overexposure to these two entities. In terms of tenants, an entities
estimated 94.1% of CLT occupied portfolio area is leased by 21%
end users with the top 5 end users accounting for 56.5% of
the occupied GFA. These tenants are in a variety of trade
sectors including industrials/ consumer, commodities/ 3PLs
54%
chemicals, food/ cold storage, healthcare, courier and
hospitality. 3rd party end-
users
25%
Breakdown of Tenants by Trade Sector
Food and cold
storage
8%
Source: Manager
Aerospace
6%
Courier To minimise income volatility risk at CWT Commodity Hub,
2%
given its significant share of the trust income, CWT has in place
Heathcare
4% 3 separate lease agreements in relation to the property in the
Hospitality
Industrial/consumer 4%
event that the Master lease Agreement is not renewed after 5
53% years. The terms of the 3 leases will range from 1-5 years.
Comodities/chemical
23%
Source: Manager
MNCs
85%
SMEs
9%
Govt Agencies
6%
Source: Manager
Page 10
Company Focus
Cache Logistics Trust
Acquisition growth – matter of time Impact of New Acquisition as a % FY11 distributable income
Initial NPI Yield (%)
Acquisition ($m) 7% 7.5% 8% 8.5%
Rights of first refusal (ROFR). CLT has a clear and visible 100 1.6% 3.0% 5.1% 6.5%
acquisition growth strategy through its right of first refusal
Source: DBS Vickers
(ROFR) for its sponsor CWT’s as well as C&P’s assets. The
ROFR applies to 13 assets located in regional logistics hub
Development activities
consisting of a total gross floor area (GFA) of 3msf, c78 % of
the total GFA of the initial portfolio.
CLT’s sponsor, CWT, pioneered the development of ramp-up
logistics warehouses in Singapore and currently owns about
Assets in Sponsor’s ROFR
a quarter of the ramp up warehouse stock in Singapore. The
Sponsor assets Location GFA (sf) Est Completion
CWT ROFR
experience and expertise generated from these
CWT Hub 3 S’pore 834,480 2011 developments is expected to benefit CLT in its future
CWT Hub 1 S’pore 375,233 2007 development activities. As such, we believe CLT would be
Jinshan Districentre China 145,816 2007 able to leverage and benefit from this skill set and optimise
CWT Tianjin Logistics Hub China 84,668 2010 returns should it undertake any development activities in the
Others Regional 811,892
future.
2,252,089
C&P Hldgs ROFR
30 Penjuru Lane 47,492 Completed An important part of CWT’s success lies in developing strong
C&P Hub 3 723,151 Completed relationships with the global 3PLs and to focus on providing
770,643 complementary logistics services as an enabler for their
Total 3,022,732
respective businesses. In our view, the ability to work closely
Source: Manager, DBS Vickers
with the global logistics players, understanding their needs
Assuming S$100m of acquisitions by end FY10/ beginning and business trends would allow CWT and CLT to provide
FY11 in our forward estimates. CLT’s current aggregate the required services and real estate solutions, thus allowing
leverage (gearing) is at c26% and based on a 35% gearing CLT to have a competitive advantage in this market segment
limit (for REITs without a credit rating), would translate to a over an independent landlord.
further c$100m of debt that the trust can take on.
Page 11
Company Focus
Cache Logistics Trust
Page 12
Company Focus
Cache Logistics Trust
Steady increase in supply. The warehouse industry has seen an Demand - little speculative activity. The Singapore logistics
average steady growth in total supply of 3% since 2000. The sector historically does not face much speculative building
eastern, western and northern regions of Singapore saw higher activity largely due to government planning and site restrictions.
growth largely driven by excellent connectivity and proximity to Therefore, fluctuations in demand and supply for warehouse
expressways, ports and airports and their status as logistics hubs space hinge largely on Singapore’s GDP growth and the state of
in Singapore. global trade.
Occupancy levels trending up since 2006. Average occupancy Using historical performance as a guide, over the past decade,
levels have been on a steady up-trend since 2006 from a low of we note that changes in demand and supply track closely the
86% and have remained relatively stable at 92-94% levels growth/contraction of Singapore’s GDP.
despite the global economic crisis in 2008-2009.
Demand/ Supply of Warehouse Space vs GDP
Stock of Warehouse Space - Islandwide 6.0
mil sq f t % G row t h Y oY
12%
Annual Supply
80 94%
Annual Demand 10%
5.0 GDP Growth RHS
70 92%
8%
60
90% 4.0
6%
50
88%
m sqft
40 3.0 4%
86%
30 2%
84% 2.0
20
0%
10 82%
1.0
-2%
- 80%
2000Q1 2001Q3 2003Q1 2004Q3 2006Q1 2007Q3 2009Q1 - -4%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F
WH Space Occ
Source: URA, DBS Vickers
Source: URA, DBS Vickers
Further new supply – largely pre-committed. A total of 6.2msf
Global recession in 2008-2009: weakness in rents/occupancy.
of warehouse space (8% increase in warehouse inventory) is
Weakness in average warehouse occupancy and rental rates
expected to complete over the next few years. Out of this
observed in recent quarters (starting from 4Q08 – 3Q09), can
supply, we estimate that 70-75% of this space could be
be largely attributed to weaker trade demand attributable to
potentially pre-committed or demand driven. This is based on
the global financial crisis.
the assumption that spaces termed as “single user” warehouse
development is driven by demand for more space and fully
Warehouse Capital Value and Rental Index vs GDP
taken up by its user.
140 20%
(X)
Projected Total New Supply of Warehouse Space
120 15%
Total Space New supply % of Current
msf) (msf) supply 100 10%
Warehouse 73.8 6.2 8%
80 5%
Source: URA, Areit, DBS Vickers
60 0%
Selected Major New Warehouse Space
Total Space (msf) % of new supply 40 -5%
Big Box at Jurong East by TT
Intl (some delay expected) 1.0 16% 20 -10%
Warehouse at Jurong Pier by
Yang Kee Holdings 0.9 15% 0 -15%
Warehouse at Jurong Pier by 1998Q4 2000Q2 2001Q4 2003Q2 2004Q4 2006Q2 2007Q4 2009Q2
C&P holdings 0.7 11% WH Price Index WH Rental Index GDP Growth YoY RHS
Warehouse at Mandai Estate 0.5 8% Source: URA, MTI, DBS Vickers
Mixed Development at Mandai
Estate – CMM Marketing
Mgmt Pte Ltd 0.3 5%
Warehouse at Simei by
Storhub Self Storage 0.3 5%
Page 13
Company Focus
Cache Logistics Trust
84 0.6
0.4
82
0.2
80 -
1998Q4 2000Q2 2001Q4 2003Q2 2004Q4 2006Q2 2007Q4 2009Q2
Page 14
Company Focus
Cache Logistics Trust
West
Jalan Nuroh 1.8 80%
Penjuru 6.4 Islandwide Changi Jurong Tuas Ramp-up
Tuas 2.0
Source: Colliers, DBS Vickers
Toh Tuck 0.2
Total Stock 15.3
Source; DBS Vickers, Colliers Ramp-up warehouses demonstrated resilience. These
warehouses also enjoyed relative resilience through the recent
Limited new supply. The relatively large size and shape crisis in 2008-2009. This was reflected in Jurong Logistics Hub
requirement of each property development is both its selling performance (in the portfolio of publicly listed Mapletree
and limiting factor. While the size allows for the storage of large Logistics Trust (MLT) since 2006) over the period with
and bulky items, the need to have large land parcels of a occupancy levels trending upwards and rents remaining stable.
specific shape in order to construct these properties in land-
scarce Singapore limits the development of future ramp-up Case Study: Jurong Logistics Hub operational performance
Occupancy Revenues Average Rent ($
warehouse.
(%) ($m) psf/mth)
2006 96.4% 2.8* 1.05
According to property consultant Colliers, new supply of ramp-
2007 99.8% 14.7 1.03
up facilities entering the market in the next 3 years is estimated
2008 99.7% 16.5 1.03
at about 1.5 msf (or c10% of current supply) at 2 locations.
2009 96.6% 17.3 1.04
* Note: Partial recognition (purchased in Oct 06)
Resilient demand from end users for ramp-up developments. Source: MLT annual reports, DBS Vickers
Users, especially logistics service providers and manufacturers
have accepted the ramp-up warehouse concept, given the Sustained demand for ramp-up warehouse facilities. Looking
attractiveness of having direct vehicular access to the ahead, with an improved economic outlook and global trade
warehouse. This modern feature translates to more efficient use environment, we believe that demand for warehouse space will
of various floors of space, ease of delivering goods straight to continue to be strong. In addition to this, the operational
specific loading docks at respective warehouse units, allowing efficiencies of ramp-up warehouses stand out and we believe
fast and efficient loading, resulting in improved operational this will translate to strong demand for such space.
efficiency, effective allocation of manpower and resources, and
cost and time savings. In addition, given the lack of significant competition from new
supply and the lack of large land parcels allocated for such use,
Strong utilization rates of 98%. Utilization levels at ramp-up it is expected that occupancy levels and rentals for ramp up
warehouses are relatively high, evidenced by the better than logistics warehouses will be sustainable in 2010.
average occupancies of c98% as of 3Q09 amongst ramp-up
warehouses. This is higher than the average occupancy of
average warehouse properties in Jurong and Tuas.
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Company Focus
Cache Logistics Trust
Gross revenue 37 68 69
Property expenses (1) (1) (1)
Net Property Income 36 67 68
Other Operating expenses (4) (7) (6)
Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0 0 0
Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (6) (13) (13)
Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0 0 0
Net Income 26 47 48
Tax 0 0 0
Minority Interest 0 0 0
Preference Dividend 0 0 0
Net Income After Tax 26 47 48
Total Return 43 47 48
Non-tax deductible Items (10) 5 6
Net Inc available for Dist. 33 52 54
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Company Focus
Cache Logistics Trust
Financials –Balance Sheet • Loan facilities lined up. We would like to note that CLT
has in place a loan commitment from Macquarie Bank Ltd,
• Property value of $729.9m. Our FY10 balance sheet, Standard Chartered Bank and DBS Bank secured over the
includes the following assumptions: i) CLT will purchase the properties totaling c$225.2m (consisting of a TLF of up to
initial portfolio at $713.2m, representing a c2% discount to $200.3m and a RCF of $25m) and will mature 4 years from
independent valuations, ii) CLT to revalue the properties up to the date of the first draw-down.
its independent valuations (as of latest date) iii) inclusive of
capitalized acquisition costs, total property value works out to CLT has drawn down S$191m of its current existing facilities,
be $730.7m. and we have assumed an all in cost of 4.5% in our models.
• Total loan of $191m. We have assumed that CLT will • Asset acquisition of S$100m in FY11F. We have assumed
draw down $191m as part consideration to purchase the a S$100m debt funded acquisition in our forward estimates.
initial portfolio inclusive of upfront costs. This is expected to bring gearing up to 35% level.
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Company Focus
Cache Logistics Trust
Pre-Tax Income 26 47 48
Dep. & Amort. 0 0 0
Tax Paid 0 0 0
Associates &JV Inc/(Loss) 0 0 0
Chg in Wkg.Cap. 2 2 0
Other Operating CF 0 0 0
Net Operating CF 28 48 48
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Company Focus
Cache Logistics Trust
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Company Focus
Cache Logistics Trust
Valuation
Initiate with BUY, TP S$1.05 based on DDM. We initiate Our base case DDM model uses distribution payment
coverage on CLT with a target price of S$1.05 based the forecasted for the next 10 years, 100% payout ratio and is
dividend discount method (DDM). We believe that DDM is discounted by a cost of equity of 8.48% (Risk free rate
an appropriate valuation metric as its distribution income is assumption of 3.25%, beta of 0.85x).
projected to be steady and as such, readily quantified.
Distributions amount to approximately 112% of net income Total return of 19%. Our target price of S$1.05 offers a
as part of the manager’s fees are payable in units. total return of 19% from last closing price of S$0.95 backed
by a solid FY10F -11F dividend yield of annualised 8.0-8.6%
Number of units (m) 634.4 638.3 642.1 646.0 649.9 653.8 657.8 661.7 665.6 669.6 669.6
Assumptions
Risk free rate 3.25%
Mkt risk premium 6.2%
Beta 0.85x
Cost of equity 8.5%
Debt / Equity ratio 30/70
Cost of debt 4.5%
Terminal Growth 1%
Source: DBS Vickers
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Company Focus
Cache Logistics Trust
Retail/Mixed
CapitaMall Trust 1.82 BUY 2.02 10% 4.8% 5.1% 5.2% 1.19
CapitaRetail China Trust 1.20 HOLD 1.20 0% 6.7% 7.0% 7.1% 1.09
Frasers Centrepoint Trust 1.31 BUY 1.63 24% 5.8% 6.2% 6.4% 1.06
Starhill Global Reit 0.54 BUY 0.73 35% 10.4% 7.4% 8.1% 0.66
Suntec REIT 1.31 BUY 1.47 12% 9.0% 7.4% 7.1% 0.73
Retail/Mixed Average 7.3% 6.6% 6.8% 0.95
Industrial
A-REIT + 1.82 HOLD 2.11 16% 7.1% 7.5% 7.8% 1.17
Ascendas India Trust + 0.93 BUY 1.14 23% 8.1% 8.6% 9.3% 1.03
Mapletree Logistics Trust 0.83 BUY 0.93 13% 7.3% 7.4% 7.8% 0.93
Cambridge Ind Trust 0.48 BUY 0.54 13% 10.9% 10.5% 10.3% 0.81
Industrial Average 8.4% 8.5% 8.8% 0.98
Hospitality
Ascott Residence Trust 1.09 BUY 1.44 32% 6.6% 6.9% 7.7% 0.83
CDL Hospitality Trust 1.71 BUY 2.20 29% 5.0% 6.7% 7.3% 1.20
Hospitality Average 5.8% 6.8% 7.5% 1.01
Healthcare
Parkway Life 1.36 BUY 1.51 12% 5.7% 6.0% 6.1% 0.99
Cache Logistics Trust 0.95 BUY 1.05 11% - 8.0%* 8.6% 1.08
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Company Focus
Cache Logistics Trust
Board of Directors
Mr Lim Hwee Chiang John Non-Executive Director Mr Lim is the Group Chief Executive Officer and an Executive Director of ARA. He is
also a Director of ARA Asset Management (Singapore) Limited (manager of Fortune
REIT), ARA Trust Management (Suntec) Limited (manager of Suntec REIT), ARA Asset
Management (Prosperity) Limited (manager of Prosperity REIT listed in Hong Kong) and
Am ARA REIT Managers Sdn. Bhd. (manager of AmFIRST REIT listed in Malaysia) and
Chairman of APM Property Management Pte. Ltd. and Suntec Singapore International
Convention & Exhibition Services Pte. Ltd.
Mr Lim brings to the board more than 28 years of experience in real estate. Prior to
founding ARA, from 1997 to 2002, he was an Executive Director of GRA (Singapore)
Pte. Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Prudential (US) Real Estate Investors.
Mr Liao Chung Lik Non-Executive Director Mr Liao is a Director of CWT Limited and a number of private companies. He is
currently the Deputy Group Managing Director of C&P Holdings Pte Ltd, in charge of
the Group’s finance and assisting the Group Managing Director in overseeing the
activities of the Group. In 1994, Mr Liao was promoted to Deputy Managing Director
of the C&P Group to assist the Managing Director of the C&P Group in the day-to-day
running of the C&P Group. In October 2004, Mr Liao assisted the Managing Director
of the C&P Group in the successful acquisition of CWT Limited.
Mr Jimmy Yim Wing Kuen Independent Director Mr Yim sits on the Boards of Concord Energy Pte Ltd, CWT Limited, Twentieth Century
Fox Film (East) Pte Ltd, Alife Ltd, Low Keng Huat (Singapore) Ltd and Singapore
Medical Group Limited. He is currently the Managing Director of the Litigation &
Dispute Resolution Department of Drew & Napier LLC, a leading legal practice in
Singapore, established since 1889. He was admitted to the Singapore Bar in 1983 and
is one of the earliest batches of Senior Counsel being appointed in January 1998. His
practice covers a range of civil and commercial law, criminal law and international
commercial arbitrations.
Ms Stefanie Yuen Thio Independent Director Ms Thio is the joint managing director of TSMP Law Corporation and is the head of its
corporate practice. She was admitted to the Singapore Bar in 1994 and her areas of
expertise include mergers and acquisitions, equity capital markets, corporate
transactions and regulatory advice. Her clients have included logistics companies, real
estate investment trusts and real estate investment trust managers. Prior to joining
TSMP Law Corporation in 1998 when it was established, she practised law at Khattar
Wong & Partners from 1994 to 1996, and thereafter at Yeo Wee Kiong & Partners
from 1996 to 1998. Ms Thio graduated from the National University of Singapore with
an LLB (Hons) degree in 1993.
Mr Moses K. Song Non-Executive Director Mr Moses K. Song has extensive experience in Asian real estate both in a principal
investing and legal advisory capacity. He is currently the Director, Corporate Business
Development of ARA, responsible for leading the business development efforts of the
ARA Group.Prior to joining ARA in 2009, Mr Song was a Principal and served as the
Chief Operating Officer of Lubert-Adler Asia Advisors Pte. Ltd., the Asia investment
platform of US-based real estate private equity firm Lubert-Adler Partners, L.P., where
he was responsible for North Asia investment opportunities.
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Company Focus
Cache Logistics Trust
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Company Focus
Cache Logistics Trust
Unbroken cold chain access. CWT Cold Hub offers users CWT Cold Hub location
unbroken cold chain access (i.e. goods being moved are not
exposed to ambient temperatures) while moving goods in CWT Cold H ub
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Company Focus
Cache Logistics Trust
Schenker Megahub
Schenker Megahub
Page 25
Company Focus
Cache Logistics Trust
Page 26
Company Focus
Cache Logistics Trust
Home to Nippon Express. Hi-Speed Logistics Centre is the Hi-Speed Logistics Centre location
national head office and air cargo branch of Nippon
Express (Singapore) Pte Ltd whose operations include
warehousing, international freight transportation,
inventory management, trade facilitation, regional
transhipment, vendor-managed inventory and hubbing
solution concepts are conducted.
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Company Focus
Cache Logistics Trust
C&P Changi DC II
C&P Changi Districentre II
C&P Changi DC II
Page 28
Company Focus
Cache Logistics Trust
DBSV recommendations are based an Absolute Total Return* Rating system, defined as follows:
STRONG BUY (>20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame)
BUY (>15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps)
HOLD (-10 to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10 to +10% for large caps)
FULLY VALUED (negative total return i.e. > -10% over the next 12 months)
SELL (negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable catalysts within this time frame)
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ANALYST CERTIFICATION
The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that the views about the
companies and their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views. The analyst also certifies that no part of
his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly, or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. As of
9 Jun 2010, the analyst and his / her spouse and/or relatives who are financially dependent on the analyst, do not hold interests in the
securities recommended in this report (“interest” includes direct or indirect ownership of securities, directorships and trustee positions).
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Company Focus
Cache Logistics Trust
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