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(MANE 4015 )
Instructor: Dr. Sayyed Ali Hosseini
Winter 2015
Lecture #6
Lecture #6
least
Lecture #6
Lecture #6
( ) or via
Lecture #6
points (e.g.
failure times)
Choose interval width to divide data set into groups and plot data.
==
1 + 3.3 log#$
Lecture #6
Example #1
70 components were tested and their time to fail was noted. The first
one failed in 21 hours and the last one failed in 84 hrs. Plot the failure
distribution function ( ). What is the probability that the component
will survive more than 55hrs?
39, 54, 21, 42, 66, 50, 56, 62, 59, 40, 41, 75, 63, 58
32, 43, 51, 60, 65, 48, 61, 27, 46, 60, 73, 36, 38, 54
60, 36, 35, 76, 54, 55, 45, 71, 54, 46, 47, 42, 52, 47
62, 55, 49, 39, 40, 69, 58, 52, 78, 56, 55, 62, 32, 57
45, 84, 36, 58, 64, 67, 62, 51, 36, 73, 37, 42, 53, 49
Lecture #6
Example #1 Solution
, ** -
==
20 29
30 39
40 49
50 59
60 69
70 79
80 89
1 + 3.3 log
84 21
=
= 8.8
1 + 3.3 log#$ 70
/ - 0 12
2
11
16
20
14
6
1
3/ = 4
Lecture #6
* 10
( ) = 4/
2/70 = .03
13/70 = .185
29/70 = .41
49/70 = .7
63/70 = .9
69/70 = .98
70/70 = 1
Example #1 Solution
: 3-;< *2
= 1 0 .7 = 0.3
> 55
* =:
> 55 = 1 :
Lecture #6
55 = 1
55
Lecture #6
10
C ( @ ) =
B
C ( @ ) =
is the
by:
+1
0.3
+ 0.4
Lecture #6
11
Example #2
The following are the times to fail (min) for 14 components, 97, 82,
72, 126, 113, 117, 103, 127, 127, 207, 154, 159, 199, 139. Plot the
failure distribution function Q(t) for the component. Use mean rank.
Lecture #6
12
Example #2 Solution
B
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
. ; - 0
72
82
97
103
113
117
126
127
127
139
154
159
199
207
( )
( ) = /( + 1)
1/15 = 0.0667
2/15 = 0.1333
3/15 = 0.2
0.266
0.333
0.4
0.466
0.533
0.6
0.667
0.733
0.8
0.866
0.933
Lecture #6
13
Example #2 Solution
From ( ) vs @ plot, you can determine for example the probability
that the component will last longer than 150 min.
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
Q(t)
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
72
82
97
103
113
117
126
127
127
139
154
159
199
207
Lecture #6
14
DEF
DEF
ln
Lecture #6
15
/= I+J =
ln
K -< =
Lecture #6
16
#
#DL F
= * -< -0
Lecture #6
17
1
K -< =
Lecture #6
18
Example #3
The failure times for 10 components were recorded to be 11.2, 6.8,
5.2, 16.8, 17.8, 32.0, 23.4, 25.4, 19.6, 44.8. Determine whether this
components failure times can be model as exponential distribution.
And if it can, estimate the parameter .
Lecture #6
19
Example #3 Solution
B
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
.;
5.2
6.8
11.2
16.8
17.8
19.6
23.4
25.4
32.0
44.8
( ) = /( + 1)
1/11 = .0909
2/11 = 0.1818
3/11 = 0.2727
4/11 = 0.3636
5/11 = 0.4545
6/11 = 0.5454
7/11 = 0.6363
8/11 = 0.7272
9/11 = 0.8181
10/11 = .0909
Lecture #6
1/(1 ( ))
1.1
1.22
1.37
1.57
1.83
2.2
2.75
3.66
5.5
11
20
Example #3 Solution
Plot ln
#
#DL F
6.8
11.2
16.8
17.8
19.6
23.4
25.4
32
44.8
/
0.18 0.09
0.09
K -< =
K -< =
K -< =
= 0.056
I
6.8 5.2
1.6
If its a curve then its not exponential.
MANE4015 Reliability and Maintenance
Lecture #6
21
/
(I# , /# )
(IS , /S )
/ = I+J
/ /S
(IQ , /Q )
I
Lecture #6
22
T /@ /
@V#
T /@ I@ J
@V#
WK
= I/ I Q JI = 0
W
=
Answer is:
I/ =
I/ I . /Y
IQ
T I@ /@
@V#
I Q
J = /Y I
and
IQ =
WK
= /Y I J = 0
W
and
T I@Q
@V#
Lecture #6
23
F [
D Z
Lecture #6
24
DEF
F [
D Z
ln ln B
DEF
ln B( ) =
ln
_
ln ln B
= ` ln
= ` ln ` ln ^
Lecture #6
25
ln ln B( )
K -< = `
` ln ^
ln[ ]
Lecture #6
26
Example #4
100 items are tested and the # of failures and times were observed.
Does the data fit a Weibull distribution?
32;2
# -0 0
; ( -2 *)
2 ( )
17
12
Lecture #6
35
18
54
24
73
30
85
36
27
Example #4 Solution
B( )
I I * = ln ( )
/ I * = ln [ B( )]
1
= 6,
1
= 100,
=B 6 =
12
18
24
30
36
0.96
0.83
0.65
0.46
0.27
0.15
1.79
2.48
2.89
3.18
3.4
3.58
0.27
0.64
=4
100 4
= 0.96
100
ln ( 1) = ln (6) = 1.79
ln ln B
= ln ln B 6
= 3.2
Lecture #6
28
Example #4 Solution
1
0.5
0
0
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
-2.5
-3
-3.5
Lecture #6
29
Example #4 Solution
K -< =
/
1.68 (3.2))
1.52
K -< =
K -< =
= 2.203
I
2.48 1.79
0.69
As a result, ` 2.20
^ =?
c I *
Lecture #6
R.Qe
= 25.79
30