Bmi Autos q32016

Q3 2016
www.bmiresearch.com
VIETNAM
AUTOS REPORT
INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2020
Published by:BMI Research
Vietnam Autos Report Q3 2016

Part of BMIs Industry Report & Forecasts Series

Published by: BMI Research
Copy deadline: April 2016
ISSN: 1749-0286
BMI Research
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2016 Business Monitor International Ltd

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DISCLAIMER
All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from sources believed to be accurate and reliable at the time of
publishing. However, in view of the natural scope for human and/or mechanical error, either at source or during production, Business Monitor
International Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from errors, inaccuracies or omissions affecting any part of the
publication. All information is provided without warranty, and Business Monitor International Ltd makes no representation of warranty of any kind
as to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained.

Part of BMIs Industry Report & Forecasts Series

Published by: BMI Research
Copy deadline: April 2016
ISSN: 1749-0286
BMI Research
Senator House
85 Queen Victoria Street
London
EC4V 4AB
United Kingdom
Tel: +44 (0) 20 7248 0468
Fax: +44 (0) 20 7248 0467
Email: subs@bmiresearch.com
Web: http://www.bmiresearch.com
2016 Business Monitor International Ltd

All rights reserved.
All information contained in this publication is
copyrighted in the name of Business Monitor
International Ltd, and as such no part of this
publication may be reproduced, repackaged,
redistributed, resold in whole or in any part, or used
in any form or by any means graphic, electronic or
mechanical, including photocopying, recording,
taping, or by information storage or retrieval, or by
any other means, without the express written consent
of the publisher.
DISCLAIMER
All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from sources believed to be accurate and reliable at the time of
publishing. However, in view of the natural scope for human and/or mechanical error, either at source or during production, Business Monitor
International Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from errors, inaccuracies or omissions affecting any part of the
publication. All information is provided without warranty, and Business Monitor International Ltd makes no representation of warranty of any kind
as to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained.
CONTENTS
BMI Industry View ............................................................................................................... 7
Key Views ............................................................................................................................................... 7
SWOT .................................................................................................................................... 8
SWOT ..................................................................................................................................................... 8
Industry Forecast .............................................................................................................. 10

Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Vietnam 2014-2020) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Latest Developments ............................................................................................................................... 10

Structural Trends ................................................................................................................................... 10
Passenger Vehicles .................................................................................................................................. 17
Table: Vietnam Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

Table: Vietnam, Top 10 Brands (all segments), 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Commercial Vehicles ................................................................................................................................ 18

Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Vietnam 2014-2020) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Industry Risk/Reward Index ............................................................................................. 20

Mature Hubs Out In Front ....................................................................................................................... 20
South East Asia On The Bubble ................................................................................................................. 21
Improved Volumes Lift Sri Lanka .............................................................................................................. 21
Company Profile ................................................................................................................ 22

GM Vietnam ........................................................................................................................................... 22
Mercedes-Benz Vietnam ............................................................................................................................ 23
Regional Overview ............................................................................................................ 24

Industry Trend Analysis ............................................................................................................................ 24
Table: Asia Autos Production Investments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
Thailand And Malaysia Look To Exports .................................................................................................... 25

Investment Targets Chinese Growth Segments ............................................................................................. 26
Myanmar A Work In Progress .................................................................................................................. 26
Demographic Forecast ..................................................................................................... 27

Table: Population Headline Indicators (Vietnam 1990-2025) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
Table: Key Population Ratios (Vietnam 1990-2025) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Vietnam 1990-2025) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Table: Population By Age Group (Vietnam 1990-2025) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Table: Population By Age Group % (Vietnam 1990-2025) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
Methodology ...................................................................................................................... 32
Industry Forecasts .................................................................................................................................. 32
Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 4

Sector-Specific Methodology .................................................................................................................... 33
Sources ................................................................................................................................................ 33
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ............................................................................................................... 34
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Index Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
Page 5
BMI Industry View

BMI View: Proposed cuts to the tax rates levied on smaller cars should provide fresh impetus to the new
vehicle sales market over H216. We still expect a slowing in growth from the elevated levels seen across
2015. We forecast 15.9% growth for the sector in 2016, with commercial vehicles to outperform passenger
cars.
Industrial Growth Favouring Commercial Vehicle Segments

Vehicle Sales By Segment, Units
500,000
75
400,000
50
300,000
200,000
25
100,000
0
2014
2015
2016f
2017f
2018f
2019f
2020f
Passenger car sales, units

Passenger car sales, units, % y-o-y
Commercial vehicle sales, units
Commercial vehicle sales, units, % y-o-y
f= BMI forecast. Source: VAMA, BMI
Key Views
Over our forecast period of 2016-2020 we expect 63% growth in new auto sales, to nearly 400,000 units.
We expect stronger growth in passenger car sales than in commercial vehicle sales over the 2016-2020
period, as incomes rise and tariffs on imported cars continue to fall.
Luxury tax proposals will dampen demand in the premium segment over 2016 and 2017.
Page 7
SWOT
SWOT
Vietnam Autos Industry SWOT
Strengths
Low manufacturing and labour costs.
Loose monetary conditions and historically low interest rates.
New vehicle sales grew at a stellar rate over 2015.

Strong demand for sub-compact and compact cars.
Weaknesses
Lack of production incentives hinder automotive sector's potential.
Undeveloped domestic supplier industry means automakers pay high import tariffs.
Underdeveloped road network.
High taxes represent a barrier to new vehicle ownership.

Vietnam remains a poor country.
Opportunities
New vehicle ownership will remain out of reach for the majority of Vietnamese.
Proposed tax cuts should boost the local auto sales market over H216 and beyond.
The annual reduction of tariffs on CBU imports from ASEAN will give automakers a
chance to increase their domestic sales through imports.
ASEAN free trade agreement and Trans-Pacific Partnership are set to reduce tariffs
for ASEAN and TPP exporters into Vietnam.
Page 8
Vietnam Autos Industry SWOT - Continued
Threats
The elimination of import tariffs by 2018 will become an obstacle to further

development of Vietnam's domestic vehicle manufacturing.
Rising traffic congestion presents an obstacle to new car sales.
Renewed slowdown in the Vietnamese economy would lead to a fall in sales.
Page 9
Industry Forecast
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Vietnam 2014-2020)
2014
2015
2016f
2017f
2018f
2019f
2020f
Vehicle production, units, mn
0.09
0.11
0.13
0.15
0.17
0.20
0.24
Vehicle production, units, % y-o-y
26.8
21.7
16.8
16.6
16.2
16.4
16.6
Vehicle sales, units, mn
0.13
0.21
0.24
0.25
0.29
0.34
0.39
Vehicle sales, units, % y-o-y
40.6
56.2
15.9
4.7
15.0
16.3
16.6
f = BMI forecast. Source: National sources, BMI
Latest Developments
The government's decision to cut the special consumption tax rate on smaller cars from 45% to 40%,
effective July 2016 could present upside risks.
The establishment of a more substantial local production base could prove transformative in terms of
boosting domestic sales and developing a wider supplier segment.
In this context, a DongFeng-PSA Peugeot Citron joint venture (JV) is reportedly soon to begin local
vehicle assembly through a partnership with local assembler Thaco Group.
Russia has also negotiated a deal for some of its manufacturers to establish local production facilities to
produce a range of vehicles for the local market.
Total vehicle sales for Q116 up 23% y-o-y after a March recovery following two months of contraction.
Declines attributed to new calculation of special consumption tax on high-end cars and minibuses with
less than 24 seats, which is now based on retail price rather than the vehicles' cost, insurance and freight
price.
Structural Trends
Another Good Year Of Sales Growth In ProspectWe currently expect 15.9% growth for the sector, with
risks to the upside given strong domestic demand, with commercial vehicles to outperform passenger cars.
Proposed cuts to tax rates levied on smaller cars should provide to be a fresh impetus to Vietnam's new
vehicle sales market over H216.
Small cars below 1.5-litres are currently the most popular within Vietnam, accounting for about half of total
sales. In January 2018, the special consumption tax rate on this type of car is set to fall further, to 35%,
which should provide even more upside to our current forecasts. Taxes on cars with engines of 1.5 litres to
2.5 litres will stay at 45-50%, while cars with engines between 2.5 litres to 3 litres will rise from 50%, to
55%. Luxury cars with engines larger than 3 litres will see a tax increase to the 90-150%.
Page 10
We believe this move to cut taxes by a larger amount for smaller engine vehicles also means that there will
be a shift towards smaller cars on the part of Vietnamese consumers, as well as a welcome reduction in the
age of Vietnam's national automobile fleet.
Turning to the macroeconomic backdrop, we believe that demand will remain very strong for both
passenger cars and commercial vehicles across 2016. Our Country Risk team expect GDP growth of 6.3%
for 2016. GDP will be bolstered by a resilient export sector, strong foreign investor interest and robust
domestic demand. The services sector continues to grow strongly, boosted by higher tourist arrivals, which
will also represent a key source of demand for both rental cars and minibuses from local companies.
In 2016, our Country Risk team forecast strong private consumption growth of 6.4% and this will filter into
passenger car demand. Credit growth registered 12.1% y-o-y in September 2015, with Vietnam's
strengthening consumers having ramped up their borrowing, often to fund aspirational purchases such as a
new car, and we expect this to continue as employment prospects improve. We believe that Vietnam's large
population, rising affluence, and sustained remittance inflows are among the factors that will keep private
consumption growth robust at an average of 6.0% per annum over the next decade.
Over the near term, we highlight that commercial vehicle sales will continue to outperform passenger cars.
Vietnam has continued to attract strong inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) given its relatively low
wages, competitive manufacturing industries and attractive industrial policies. This in turn has bolstered
industrial production, exports and infrastructure investments leading to a strong growth in freight demand.
This should all translate into increased demand for commercial vehicles and we expect this to continue over
2016 and 2017.
Rounding out a propitious picture for auto sales, we are also expect 50 basis points of monetary easing by
the State Bank of Vietnam, as the central bank looks to support economic activity amid a low inflation and
lower global oil price environment. This would take the benchmark refinancing rate down to 6.0% by yearend. This lower interest rate environment should mean a lowering of auto financing rates for new and used
vehicle purchases, which will act as a support to both passenger car and light commercial vehicle sales over
2016 and 2017.
Looking beyond 2016, further stimulating sales over our forecast period will be the gradual decrease in
vehicle tariffs on vehicles assembled in the ASEAN region, which will place downward pressure on prices.
As part of the ASEAN free trade agreement Vietnam is required to lower its tariffs on imported vehicles
from the region from 40% in 2015 to 30% 2016, thus, as import tariffs drop by a quarter in 2016 consumers
will see their purchasing power increase. We believe these falling tax costs will actually be passed on to the
Page 11
consumer by autos dealers and manufacturers, owing to the growing scrutiny on auto companies by tax
authorities.
Further adding to the bullish picture for sales is the recent Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal, which
was signed in Auckland by 12 countries (including Vietnam) in February 2016. While the deal still requires
ratification from each member state's government, a process that is expected to take up to two years, if it is
put into practice it will help open up Vietnam's booming passenger car market to yet more international car
makers operating across the TPP region by removing significantly large tariff barriers on imported vehicles.
As a result, the added competition would also encourage further declines in prices and encourage more
consumers to purchase new vehicles.
Beyond the current year, therefore, we retain our long-held optimistic view on the medium-term outlook for
Vietnamese new car sales. We are expecting new vehicle sales to show growth of 63%, to take total new
vehicle sales to almost the 400,000 unit mark by 2020. We expect stronger growth in passenger car sales
than in commercial vehicles over the 2016-2020 period, as incomes rise and tariffs on imported cars
continue to fall.
Production Dominated By Thaco
Market leader Thaco - which assembles vehicles for Kia, Mazda and Peugeot - accounts for over half of
the new vehicle sales market. However, imported cars have seen rapid growth over recent years, now
making up around 40% of total sales, according to the Financial Times.
Other companies with local production facilities include: Ford, GM Vietnam, Hino, Isuzu, Toyota,
Vinamotor and Vinastar.
Page 12
Growing FDI A Boon For Auto Production

Vietnam - Domestic Auto Production, Units (LHS); % chg y-o-y (RHS)
Source: VAMA, BMI
New Production Investments Will Face Old Problems
In line with this growing production and booming demand, Vietnam has seen a flurry of announcements
from foreign automakers declaring their intentions to begin, or ramp-up, manufacturing activities in the
country. We believe automakers are looking to establish operations in the country to capitalise on large
sales growth opportunities about to be unlocked by the introduction of free trade between ASEAN members
in 2018. However, we stress that that these automakers will still face significant operational challenges in
realising sales growth across the region over the long run.
Swarming Investment Providing Short-Term Support...
Recent inflows of investment will provide support to Vietnamese vehicle production up to the end of our
newly-extended forecast period to 2020 and we forecast output to grow an average of 12.4% annually over
the period. In March 2016, the Russia Today news website reported that the Russian automakers GAZ,
Kamaz and Sollers would soon be establishing local production facilities to produce a range of vehicles for
Page 13
the local market. According to Russia's Ministry of Industry and Trade, as cited by Russia Today, GAZ,
Kamaz and Sollers will be given a duty-free quota to import both cars and spare parts into Vietnam. This
will initially be set at 2,550 Russian vehicles over three years and 13,500 spare parts over five years. Over
time, the Russian carmakers plan to increase localisation of production to between 40-50% by 2025.
In May 2015, the China-based JV between PSA Peugeot Citron and Chinese automaker DongFeng also
announced it would begin production in partnership with Vietnam's largest assembler THACO Group.
Finally, Indian manufacturer Tata Motors announced its partnership with local distributor TMT Motor
JSC for the assembly of completely knocked down (CKD) kits of Tata models.
... But Long-Term Challenges Still Lurk
However, vehicle manufacturers in Vietnam remain uncompetitive compared with automakers elsewhere in
ASEAN owing to the country's small-scale production, its unfavourable tax policies, and its limited rate of
localisation.
In particular, local content requirements could prevent them from exporting to the broader ASEAN market
effectively once free trade in the region has begun. Given that these new entrants are all only considering
basic assembly of imported CKD and semi-knocked down kits, they face a high risk that their products will
fail to meet the 40% local content requirements of the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA). Thus, they may
not qualify for tariff-free exports from Vietnam, which would cut them off from the broader ASEAN
regional market.
This poses a major threat to KamAZ and Sollers' export ambitions in the region owing to the lack of a
Russia-ASEAN trade agreement. For the Peugeot-DongFeng JV and Tata, this poses less of a problem if
they are able to source components from India and China owing to ASEAN's free trade agreements with
these countries.
Nevertheless, the long-term barriers to growth that are weighing on producers already operating in the
country will weigh even more heavily on these new entrants owing to their relative inexperience in the
market, smaller scale and high dependence on imported components.
Page 14
Strong Outlook Hides Long-Term Weakness

Vietnam - Vehicle Production, Units
100,000
20
75,000
15
50,000
10
25,000
0
2013
2014
2015f
2016f
2017f
2018f
2019f
Vietnam - Vehicle production, units (LHS)

Vietnam - Vehicle production, units, % y-o-y (RHS)
f = BMI forecast. Source: OICA, BMI
Production Will Grow But Imports Still More Attractive
Despite the rise in auto production, the market will still be heavily reliant on imports for now due to the lack
of a strong presence of suppliers. We also see the gradual abolishment of vehicle import tariffs under the
ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) over the 2015-2019 period as a key threat to the Vietnamese auto
sector, in light of the AEC (see 'AEC: Integration To Reinforce Current Production Leadership' September
12 2014).
As tariffs are lowered, potential entrants will likely focus on their regional production facilities in Thailand
and Indonesia and import CBUs into Vietnam instead of establishing greenfield production facilities in the
country. Our trade balance forecast shows net imports rising from 2015 to 2019 as sales growth of imported
vehicles accelerates. This view is further supported by recent failures to encourage upstream investments in
the country. For example, Hyundai Motor recently pulled out of its USD185.5mn joint venture with Ho
Chi Minh-based Truong Hai Autmobile JSC to set up the county's first engine factory citing delays to the
Page 15
project. Without these upstream investments the industry remains largely focused on simple assembly
operations, which bodes poorly for the long-term sustainability of the industry.
Government Is Prioritising The Supplier Segment
The domestic spare parts and components sector in Vietnam is small at present, although the government is
making it a priority. Given rapid economic growth in the region, there is significant development potential
for the industry and the Ministry of Industry and Trade is looking to make the domestic industry more
competitive. As mentioned in the recently approved masterplan, the government aims to improve the
localisation rate of cars manufactured in Vietnam to 35% by 2020 and 65% by 2035.
The decision by Gentherm, a manufacturer of auto thermal management technologies, to open a new
manufacturing facility in the country is a positive for the sector. The company has said that this facility will
help it leverage Vietnam's competitive labour force and workplace environment and will support its
ambitious growth plans in Asia.
BMI also sees potential opportunities in the government's plans to create a national industry hub in the Chu
Lai Economic Zone, with the project aiming to increase the scale of domestic production which will
improve the competitiveness of the sector as import tariffs are eliminated under the ASEAN Free Trade
Agreement.
In December 2015, Chinese tyre manufacturer Sailun Jinyu Group announced plans to invest a maximum
of CNY1.3bn (USD200mn) in building a second tyre facility in Vietnam. The planned facility, which would
supply tyres for trucks and off-road equipment, is aimed to counter trade barriers in certain markets. The
facility would cater to the South American, North American and European markets as these markets do not
allow the sale of Chinese-manufactured tyres. The facility is expected to produce 1.2mn tyres for trucks and
buses, as well as 30,000 metric tonnes of off-road tyres. The construction of the factory is scheduled to take
three years.
Page 16
Passenger Vehicles
Table: Vietnam Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts
Passenger car production, units

Passenger car production, units, % y-o-y
Passenger car sales, units
Passenger car sales, units, % y-o-y
2014
2015e
2016f
2017f
2018f
2019f
2020f
38,900
44,735
51,445
56,589
62,248
68,473
75,320
0.0
15.0
15.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
76,991
114,960
132,204
137,492
160,866
190,260
224,507
32.4
49.3
15.0
4.0
17.0
18.3
18.0
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National sources, BMI
Latest Developments
In contrast to global trends, sedans and hatchbacks have been outperforming SUV sales within Vietnam
at the present time.
Looking at sales for the month of March 2016 (most recent data available), locally assembled cars
accounted for more than 80% of total sales, according to VAMA.
Truong Hai Auto Corporation (Thaco) had 44.7% market share in March 2016, followed by the local
units of Japanese carmaker Toyota and US carmaker Ford.
The luxury segment continues to show stellar growth; however, luxury tax proposals threaten to raise
vehicle prices further from their already inflated levels, which could lead to a slowing of sales growth
within this segment over 2016/17.
Looking to tap into the long-term potential of the Vietnamese market, in March 2016 Swedish luxury
carmaker Volvo Car Corporation announced that it would be commencing local sales from Q316, in
partnership with local dealer Euro Auto.
Euro Auto will build two showrooms in Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi, with Volvo's long-term aim to
obtain a 5-8% market share within the luxury sub-segment.
Table: Vietnam, Top 10 Brands (all segments), 2015
Brand
Sales
Market Share (%)
Toyota
50,285
24.1
Thaco Truck
36,300
17.4
Thaco Kia
21,310
10.2
Ford
20,740
9.9
Vinamazda
20,359
9.8
8,312
4.0
Honda
Page 17
Vietnam, Top 10 Brands (all segments), 2015 - Continued
Brand
Sales
Market Share (%)
Chevrolet
7,345
3.5
Isuzu
7,091
3.4
Suzuki
5,885
2.8
Mercedes-Benz
4,361
2.1
Source: VAMA, BMI
Commercial Vehicles
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Vietnam 2014-2020)
2014
2015e
2016f
2017f
2018f
2019f
2020f
Commercial vehicle production, units, mn
0.05
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.11
0.13
0.16
Commercial vehicles production, units, % y-o-y
33.2
40.0
18.0
21.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
Commercial vehicle sales, units

53,752 91,280 106,797 112,671 126,642 144,120 165,319

46.0
69.8
17.0
5.5
12.4
13.8
14.7
Latest Developments
For 2016, we believe that commercial vehicle sales (+17%) will outperform passenger car sales (+15%)
for the third year in a row.
The commercial vehicle segment will continue to benefit from growing demand in the country's freight
transport sector, which is being bolstered by robust export growth and foreign direct investment despite
the slowdown in the broader ASEAN region.
Within the light commercial vehicle (LCV) segment, a strong economic backdrop should lead to more
investment in fleet renewal by small to medium-sized Vietnamese businesses.
Local producer Thaco remains the dominant player within the CV segment, with its Thaco Truck unit
selling 36,300 units over 2015 for a market share of 17.4% (all segments).
Other leading brands selling in the Vietnamese LCV market are Ford, Isuzu and Vinamotor.
Within the heavy commercial vehicle (HCV) segment, Thaco and Hino remain the market leaders.
Page 18
Sales Race Ahead Of Output Due To Tough Operating Environment

Commercial Vehicle Sales & Production, % chg y-o-y
80
60
40
20
0
2014
2015e
2016f
2017f
2018f
2019f
2020f

Commercial vehicles production, units, % y-o-y
Page 19
Industry Risk/Reward Index

The latest update of our Risk/Reward Index for the Autos sector in Asia shows that although the bigger,
more developed markets are not necessarily the ones attracting investment, they still score highest for their
business environment and production potential. It is also worth noting that the regional average score is
what all markets are being compared with, suggesting that even the outliers have room for improvement.
Business Environment Lifts Mature Markets

Asia Autos Risk/Reward Index
Scores out of 100, with 100 the best; higher scores = higher rewards/lower risk. Source: BMI
Mature Hubs Out In Front

While there has been little movement in country positions since our last update (see 'Asia Autos RRI:
Positive Moves Make For Crowded Index', January 26), this in itself says something about the stability of
the leading markets, even if they do not offer the highest growth opportunities. Indeed, Japan and South
Korea are not countries where foreign investors would look to produce and growth potential is limited as a
result, but their low risk profile in comparison to the rest of the region is what marks them out.
This idea of relative performance is important when looking at the ratings, as the positions alone do not tell
the full story. The Regional Average for both the Risk and Reward scores is where we make the intersection
Page 20
point for our four segments. For Risk in Asia, the regional average is 62.5 but for Reward just 44.6, both out
of 100 with higher scores for each category denoting lower risk and higher reward. This means, therefore,
that when we look at these markets in terms of their attractiveness, it is important to remember this is a
comparison against each other, not globally.
This is perhaps best reflected in the case of Australia, which is still in the 'Low Risk, High Reward'
segment, despite the ongoing demise of its autos manufacturing sector. It is largely the low risk element of
its score (80.3) keeping it in that area, while its Reward score is just 53.5, moving it down closer to the
regional average, with just a reasonably positive sales growth outlook bolstering its Rewards.
South East Asia On The Bubble

The leading South East Asian markets are clustered around the Regional Average point, making them the
most likely to move between segments at any given point. Strong industry policy sees Thailand and
Malaysia in the most attractive 'Low Risk, High Reward' segment, even at a time when domestic sales are
weak. This is one drawback that we have previously highlighted for the Philippines which offers substantial
potential on the sales side, but lacks incentives for investors. With the introduction of the Comprehensive
Automotive Resurgence Strategy in December, the government is looking to attract more investment into
domestic production but so far it is too early to judge the strength of the program.
Improved Volumes Lift Sri Lanka

A change in tax structure which boosted Sri Lanka's new vehicle sales over 2015 and, therefore, sees the
country offering far more market potential, has also moved the market further along the Rewards axis into
the 'High Risk, High Reward' segment. This means that while there is a much bigger market to target now, it
is still faced with the issues of an underdeveloped country, particularly in terms of its infrastructure and
frequent labour unrest. That said, it has attracted investment from the likes of Volkswagen and potentially
Maruti Suzuki, reflecting the market's increased reward prospects.
Page 21
Company Profile
GM Vietnam
Latest
Developments
Strategy
GM Vietnam has a diversified presence over new and used car sales, production,
servicing and auto parts, as well as over 20 years' experience of working in the local
market.
Chevrolet models remain popular across both passenger car and commercial vehicle
segments.
Company could look to increase domestic production if demand for vehicles rises
over the medium term.
GM Vietnam retains a relatively small market share (3.5%) within Vietnam at present.
In 2016, the company will continue to face strong competition from Ford and other
brands which have similar market share.
In 2011, GM Vietnam decided to align its operations to make Chevrolet its retail brand
and sells its cars under that brand in the country. However, it continues to provide aftersales care and spare parts for owners of Daewoo cars.
The company is headquartered in Hanoi's Thanh Tri district and has a manufacturing
plant in the same proximity with an annual assembly capacity of 30,000 units. GM
Vietnam works with 17 dealers in major cities in the country and in 2015 sold a total of
7,345 units of locally assembled vehicles, with its most popular model being the Cruze
LS.
Page 22
Mercedes-Benz Vietnam
Latest
Developments
Mercedes-Benz Vietnam has a diversified presence over new and used car sales,
production, servicing and auto parts, as well as 20 years' experience of working with
Mercedes-Benz on the local market.
In 2015, Mercedes-Benz sold 4,361 units in Vietnam, sufficient to place it in 10th
position for the year.
Company could look to boost domestic production if demand for vehicles rises over
the medium term.
Mercedes-Benz's market share in the premium segment currently stands at around
72%.
Mercedes-Benz's CV range is also proving increasingly popular.
Mercedes-Benz will remain one of the leading distributors of luxury cars within
Vietnam over 2016.
Strategy
Mercedes-Benz announced it delivered 1,522 cars to customers in the first six months
of 2015, posting a y-o-y increase of 37.6%. The growth momentum came mostly from
the new C-Class and the S-Class. With 570 cars delivered, the C-Class is the brand's
best-selling model in Vietnam in the first six months and took an 86% share of its
competitive segment. At least 233 S-Classes were sold during the same period,
counting for 89% share of its premier league. The significant growth pushed the
Mercedes-Benz's market share in the premium segment from 54% to 72%.
Company Data
Year established: 1995

General Director: Michael Behrens
No. of employees: 500-600
Page 23
Regional Overview
Industry Trend Analysis
BMI View: Strong industry policy is driving investment throughout the region, whether it is for production
for export to healthier markets, as is the case in Malaysia and Thailand, or subsidies to drive the nascent
but growing NEV segment in China.
In BMI's regular round-up of production investments, we track the latest projects from the production side
of the industry and analyse trends that we see developing on a regional basis. In doing so, we hope to build
a picture of any potential hubs that may be developing, as well as company strategy in terms of production
bases and export programmes.
Table: Asia Autos Production Investments
Date
Country
Announced
Jan-16
Jan-16
Feb-16
Feb-16
Feb-16
Feb-16
Malaysia
China
China
India
China
Myanmar
Feb-16
China
Mar-16
South
Korea
City/State/
Region
Kedah
Shanghai
Hubei
Maharashtra
n/a
Bago
Company
BAIC
Shanghai-GM
Renault and
Dongfeng
FCA
VW
Nissan
Dalian
Panasonic
Gwangju
Joylong
Automobile
Value
Brief Description
Date
Onstream
MYR200mn
(USD46mn)
Joint venture electric vehicle

plant with an initial annual
production capacity of
2,000-3,000 units
CNY8bn
(USD1.2bn)
New plant for production of the

Cadillac CT6 hybrid, with an
annual production capacity of
160,000 units
2016
USD1.2bn
First Chinese production facility

with an annual production
capacity of 150,000 units rising
to 300,000 later, starting with
production of the Kadjar SUV
2016
USD280mn
Expansion of existing facility to

add three new Jeep models to
the line
2017
USD4.5bn
Ramping up production of new

plug-in hybrid and SUV models,
with a total of 15 new energy
vehicles to be launched over
the next five years
2016-20
n/a
New vehicle plant with an

10,000 units
JPY50bn
(USD443mn)
New joint venture EV battery

plant, with an annual production
capacity of 200,000 units for
both domestic and export sale 2017
USD213mn
New electric vehicle plant with

an annual production capacity
of 100,000 units for domestic
Q3 2016
2018
2020
Page 24
Asia Autos Production Investments - Continued
Date
Country
Announced
City/State/
Region
Company
Value
Brief Description
Date
Onstream
sales and export to South East

Asia
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
May-16
May-16
May-16
China
China
China
Thailand
Malaysia
Thailand
Fuzhou
Beijing
Nanjing
Prachinburi
TBC
Chonburi
Daimler
EUR200mn
(USD224mn)
Bogward Group USD723mn
NextEV
Honda
Toyota
SAIC
Production of the V-Class MPV

at an existing facility
2016
New assembly line for the BX7
crossover at Foton Motor's
multipurpose plant, with an
160,000 units
2016
CNY3bn
(USD458mn)
New plant for the production of

electric vehicle engines, with an
280,000 units, to supply other
EV manufacturers
H216
THB17.15bn
(USD485mn)
New vehicle and engine

assembly plant with a maximum
annual capacity of 120,000
units, creating 1,400 new jobs 2016
JPY30bn
(USD275mn)
New plant for the production of

small vehicles with an initial
50,000 units, rising eventually to
100,000
2018
THB40bn
(USD1.1bn)
New joint venture plant with

Charoen Pokphand Group for
the production of right-handdrive models, eventually to
become a global RHD hub, with
an annual production capacity
of 300,000 units
TBC
n/a = not available; TBC = to be confirmed. Source: BMI
Thailand And Malaysia Look To Exports
Thailand and Malaysia stand out as recurring targets for production investment in this latest round-up, even
though the outlook for domestic sales in both countries is far from promising. This is a result of attractive
industry policy, coupled with the ASEAN Economic Community integration, which are encouraging
companies to produce for export in these countries.
Thailand has long been a regional production hub thanks to its attractive and flexible industrial policy and
we are now seeing the same from Malaysia since the introduction of its Energy Efficient Vehicle (EEV)
programme (see 'EEVs To Boost Production Hub Potential', November 28 2014). The healthy growth
outlook for other markets in South East Asia, particularly the likes of Vietnam and the Philippines, means
Page 25
there is still a growth market for exports from these countries (see 'Growing Consumer Base To Support
BMW Exports', May 6).
Investment Targets Chinese Growth Segments
In China, investment projects are targeting those segments that continue to show growth, even as the overall
market slows from its previous highs. The new energy vehicle (NEV) and SUV/MPV segments are the
biggest draws and in the case of Volkswagen, it has allocated investment into both segments under a
USD4.5bn five-year plan to launch new NEVs and SUVs (see 'VW Moving To Plug Into Niche Vehicle
Segments', February 19).
Investment in hybrid, plug-in hybrid and pure electric vehicle production is being driven by the incentives
on offer from the government for the production and purchase of these vehicles. Indeed, Shanghai-General
Motors' plan to produce the Cadillac CT6 hybrid in Shanghai is a milestone for the country, as it will be the
only market with domestic production of the model.
The level of interest in NEVs from both manufacturers and consumers has also attracted battery maker
Panasonic to build a new plant in the country, showing that the subsidies are having a positive impact
across the entire NEV supply chain.
Myanmar A Work In Progress
Myanmar makes a welcome appearance in this latest round-up, reflecting the growing interest in the market
and its growth potential since opening up. However, the small scale and gradual ramping up of the facility
planned by Nissan Motor is symbolic of the industry's cautious approach to a market that is still low on
spending power, particularly for high-end items such as new vehicles.
The advantage of domestic production, however, is that companies can avoid the country's high import tax
and offer more competitively priced vehicles, which might be more affordable for at least some of the
country's more affluent consumers. In that respect, any companies targeting Myanmar are doing so knowing
it will be a slow burning project but they can build up brand presence by being early movers (see 'Nissan's
Production A Long-Term Play', February 19).
Page 26
Demographic Forecast
Demographic analysis is a key pillar of BMI's macroeconomic and industry forecasting model. Not only
is the total population of a country a key variable in consumer demand, but an understanding of
the demographic profile is essential to understanding issues ranging from future population trends to
productivity growth and government spending requirements.
The accompanying charts detail the population pyramid for 2015, the change in the structure of
the population between 2015 and 2050 and the total population between 1990 and 2050. The tables show
indicators from all of these charts, in addition to key metrics such as population ratios, the urban/rural split
and life expectancy.
Population
(1990-2050)
150
100
50
2050f
2045f
2040f
2035f
2030f
2025f
2020f
2015f
2010
2005
2000
1990
Vietnam - Population, mn
f = BMI forecast. Source: World Bank, UN, BMI
Page 27
Vietnam Population Pyramid

2015 (LHS) & 2015 Versus 2050 (RHS)
Source: World Bank, UN, BMI
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Vietnam 1990-2025)
1990
2000
2005
2010
2015f
2020f
2025f
68,209
80,285
84,203
88,357
93,447
98,156
102,092
na
1.1
0.9
1.0
1.1
0.9
0.7
Population, total, male, '000
33,583
39,551
41,469
43,626
46,224
48,590
50,510
Population, total, female, '000
34,625
40,734
42,734
44,730
47,223
49,566
51,581
Population ratio, male/female
0.97
0.97
0.97
0.98
0.98
0.98
0.98
Population, total, '000

Population, % y-o-y
na = not available; f = BMI forecast. Source: World Bank, UN, BMI
Table: Key Population Ratios (Vietnam 1990-2025)
Active population, total, '000

Active population, % of total population
Dependent population, total, '000
Dependent ratio, % of total working age
1990
2000
2005
2010
2015f
2020f
2025f
38,808
49,712
55,795
61,655
65,572
67,775
69,459
56.9
61.9
66.3
69.8
70.2
69.0
68.0
29,401
30,573
28,408
26,702
27,875
30,381
32,633
75.8
61.5
50.9
43.3
42.5
44.8
47.0
Page 28
Key Population Ratios (Vietnam 1990-2025) - Continued
Youth population, total, '000
1990
2000
2005
2010
2015f
2020f
2025f
25,494
25,416
22,866
20,919
21,576
22,487
22,335
65.7
51.1
41.0
33.9
32.9
33.2
32.2
3,907
5,157
5,542
5,783
6,298
7,893
10,298
10.1
10.4
9.9
9.4
9.6
11.6
14.8
Youth population, % of total working age

Pensionable population, '000
Pensionable population, % of total working age
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Vietnam 1990-2025)
1990
Urban population, '000
2020f
2025f
13,815.9 19,568.8 22,971.6 26,853.7 31,391.9 36,120.7
40,780.9
Urban population, % of total

Rural population, '000
2000
20.3
24.4
2005
27.3
2010
30.4
2015f
33.6
36.8
39.9
54,393.7 60,716.8 61,232.2 61,504.1 62,055.7 62,036.0
61,311.7
Rural population, % of total
79.7
75.6
72.7
69.6
66.4
63.2
60.1
Life expectancy at birth, male, years
66.0
68.4
69.3
70.2
71.2
72.1
73.1
Life expectancy at birth, female, years
75.1
78.1
79.2
80.0
80.6
81.1
81.6
Life expectancy at birth, average, years
70.5
73.3
74.3
75.1
75.9
76.7
77.4
Table: Population By Age Group (Vietnam 1990-2025)
1990
2000
2005
2010
2015f
2020f
2025f
Population, 0-4 yrs, total, '000
9,211
7,244
6,751
7,265
7,740
7,601
7,108
8,512
9,119
7,130
6,648
7,221
7,698
7,562
7,769
9,052
8,983
7,005
6,614
7,187
7,664
7,277
8,401
8,941
8,877
6,972
6,583
7,156
6,570
7,610
8,242
8,764
8,803
6,908
6,522
5,938
7,019
7,408
8,022
8,664
8,705
6,823
5,079
6,300
6,863
7,223
7,932
8,572
8,616
3,842
5,746
6,190
6,718
7,146
7,850
8,488
2,447
4,938
5,663
6,096
6,640
7,065
7,766
2,003
3,710
4,880
5,592
6,004
6,543
6,968
Page 29
Population By Age Group (Vietnam 1990-2025) - Continued
1990
2000
2005
2010
2015f
2020f
2025f
1,956
2,331
3,658
4,801
5,467
5,875
6,410
2,033
1,873
2,223
3,501
4,625
5,275
5,681
1,658
1,779
1,723
2,055
3,314
4,392
5,023
1,402
1,759
1,599
1,551
1,894
3,066
4,081
1,021
1,313
1,520
1,390
1,369
1,682
2,739
747
977
1,073
1,254
1,158
1,150
1,424
426
593
726
809
957
893
895
221
334
382
479
541
649
613
70
131
176
208
265
305
370
15
40
52
73
88
114
133
Population, 100+ yrs, total, '000
11
16
23
30
39
Table: Population By Age Group % (Vietnam 1990-2025)
1990
2000
2005
2010
2015f
2020f
2025f
Population, 0-4 yrs, % total
13.50
9.02
8.02
8.22
8.28
7.74
6.96
12.48
11.36
8.47
7.52
7.73
7.84
7.41
11.39
11.28
10.67
7.93
7.08
7.32
7.51
10.67
10.46
10.62
10.05
7.46
6.71
7.01
9.63
9.48
9.79
9.92
9.42
7.04
6.39
8.71
8.74
8.80
9.08
9.27
8.87
6.68
7.45
7.85
8.15
8.18
8.49
8.73
8.44
5.63
7.16
7.35
7.60
7.65
8.00
8.31
3.59
6.15
6.73
6.90
7.11
7.20
7.61
2.94
4.62
5.80
6.33
6.43
6.67
6.83
2.87
2.90
4.34
5.43
5.85
5.99
6.28
2.98
2.33
2.64
3.96
4.95
5.37
5.57
2.43
2.22
2.05
2.33
3.55
4.47
4.92
2.06
2.19
1.90
1.76
2.03
3.12
4.00
1.50
1.64
1.81
1.57
1.47
1.71
2.68
1.10
1.22
1.27
1.42
1.24
1.17
1.40
0.63
0.74
0.86
0.92
1.02
0.91
0.88
Page 30
Population By Age Group % (Vietnam 1990-2025) - Continued
1990
2000
2005
2010
2015f
2020f
2025f
0.33
0.42
0.45
0.54
0.58
0.66
0.60
0.10
0.16
0.21
0.24
0.28
0.31
0.36
0.02
0.05
0.06
0.08
0.09
0.12
0.13
Population, 100+ yrs, % total
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.03
0.04
Page 31
Methodology
Industry Forecasts
BMI's industry forecasts are generated using the best-practice techniques of time-series modelling and
causal/econometric modelling. The precise form of model we use varies from industry to industry, in each
case being determined, as per standard practice, by the prevailing features of the industry data being
examined.
Common to our analysis of every industry is the use of vector autoregressions. Vector autoregressions allow
us to forecast a variable using more than the variable's own history as explanatory information. For
example, when forecasting oil prices, we can include information about oil consumption, supply and
capacity.
When forecasting for some of our industry sub-component variables, however, using a variable's own
history is often the most desirable method of analysis. Such single-variable analysis is called univariate
modelling. We use the most common and versatile form of univariate models: the autoregressive moving
average model (ARMA).
In some cases, ARMA techniques are inappropriate because there is insufficient historic data or data quality
is poor. In such cases, we use either traditional decomposition methods or smoothing methods as a basis for
analysis and forecasting.
BMI mainly uses OLS estimators and, in order to avoid relying on subjective views and encourage the use
of objective views, we use a 'general-to-specific' method. BMI mainly uses a linear model, but simple nonlinear models, such as the log-linear model, are used when necessary. During periods of 'industry shock', for
example poor weather conditions impeding agricultural output, dummy variables are used to determine the
level of impact.
Effective forecasting depends on appropriately selected regression models. BMI selects the best model
according to various different criteria and tests, including but not exclusive to:
R2 tests explanatory power; adjusted R2 takes degree of freedom into account;
Testing the directional movement and magnitude of coefficients;
Hypothesis testing to ensure coefficients are significant (normally t-test and/or P-value);
All results are assessed to alleviate issues related to auto-correlation and multi-collinearity.
Page 32
BMI uses the selected best model to perform forecasting.
Human intervention plays a necessary and desirable role in all of BMI's industry forecasting. Experience,
expertise and knowledge of industry data and trends ensure that analysts spot structural breaks, anomalous
data, turning points and seasonal features where a purely mechanical forecasting process would not.
Sector-Specific Methodology
A number of principal criteria drive our extrapolations and forecasts for each autos variable.
Production And Sales
At a general level, we approach our forecasting from both a micro and a macro perspective, assessing the
expansion plans of relevant multinationals/indigenous firms, while also taking account of the prevailing
economic outlook. In this latter respect, our projections for macro variables such as industrial output,
private consumption, government investment, monetary policy and GDP growth play a key role.
Figures for production are derived from a generic source (thereby ensuring maximum comparability
between country data-sets), and include all vehicles with four wheels or more. For sales, we rely on data
from government agencies and national automobile associations. Unless otherwise stated, sales numbers
include domestically produced and imported vehicles, but not exports. The sector's contribution to GDP is
projected by taking the US dollar production value as a proportion of nominal GDP, using our own
macroeconomic and demographic forecasts.
Auto Imports And Exports
These variables are mainly calculated at the micro level, using individual company reports. Changes in
government policy, particularly with regard to tariffs and quotas, also have a significant bearing.
Sources
Aside from government departments and official company reports, we rely on the International
Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (OICA), other established think tanks, institutes, and
international and national news agencies.
Page 33
Risk/Reward Index Methodology

BMI's Risk/Reward Index (RRI) provides a comparative regional ranking system evaluating the ease of
doing business and the industry-specific opportunities and limitations for potential investors in a given
market. The RRI system divides into two distinct areas.
Rewards
Evaluation of sector's size and growth potential in each state, and also broader industry/state characteristics
that may inhibit its development. This is further broken down into two sub categories:
Industry Rewards. This is an industry-specific category taking into account current industry size and
growth forecasts, the openness of market to new entrants and foreign investors, to provide an overall
score for potential returns for investors.
Country Rewards. This is a country-specific category, and the score factors in favourable political and
economic conditions for the industry.
Risks
Evaluation of industry-specific dangers and those emanating from a state's political/economic profile that
call into question the likelihood of anticipated returns being realised over the assessed time period. This is
further broken down into two sub categories:
Industry Risks. This is an industry-specific category whose score covers potential operational risks to
investors, regulatory issues inhibiting the industry and the relative maturity of a market.
Country Risks. This is a country-specific category in which political and economic instability,
unfavourable legislation and a poor overall business environment are evaluated to provide an overall
score.
We take a weighted average, combining industry and country risks, or industry and country rewards. These
two results provide an overall RRI, which is used to create our regional ranking system for the risks and
rewards of involvement in the autos industry in a particular country.
For each category and sub-category, each state is scored out of 100 (100 being the best), with the overall
RRI a weighted average of the total score. As most of the countries and territories evaluated are considered
by BMI to be 'emerging markets', our index is revised on a quarterly basis. This ensures that the score
draws on the latest information and data across our broad range of sources, and the expertise of our analysts.
Page 34
In constructing this index, the indicators in the table below have been used. Almost all indicators are
objectively based. Given the number of indicators/datasets used, it would be inappropriate to give all subcomponents equal weight. The weighting given is described in the table.
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Index Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
Weighting, %
Rewards
70, of which
Industry Rewards
65, of which
Vehicle ownership, % of population
10
Total vehicle stock, mn
10
Total production
10
Production growth, five-year forecast average
10
Total vehicle sales
10
Sales growth, five-year forecast average
10
Country Rewards
35, of which
Urban/rural split
10
Rigidity of employment
10
Labour costs
10
GDP per capita, USD
10
Risks
30, of which
Industry Risks
50, of which
Regulatory environment
10
Competitive landscape
10
Country Risks
50, of which
Corruption
10
Bureaucracy
10
Market orientation - openness
10
Legal framework
10
Long-term monetary risks
10
Long-term external risks
10
Long-term financial risks
10
Long-term policy continuity
10
Source: BMI
Page 35

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Q3 2016

Published by:BMI Research

Vietnam Autos Report Q3 2016

Part of BMIs Industry Report & Forecasts Series

2016 Business Monitor International Ltd

Vietnam Autos Report Q3 2016

Part of BMIs Industry Report & Forecasts Series

2016 Business Monitor International Ltd

Vietnam Autos Report Q3 2016

Industry Forecast .............................................................................................................. 10

Latest Developments ............................................................................................................................... 10

Latest Developments ............................................................................................................................... 17

Commercial Vehicles ................................................................................................................................ 18

Latest Developments ............................................................................................................................... 18

Industry Risk/Reward Index ............................................................................................. 20

Company Profile ................................................................................................................ 22

Regional Overview ............................................................................................................ 24

Thailand And Malaysia Look To Exports .................................................................................................... 25

Demographic Forecast ..................................................................................................... 27

Business Monitor International Ltd

Vietnam Autos Report Q3 2016

Business Monitor International Ltd

Vietnam Autos Report Q3 2016

BMI Industry View

Industrial Growth Favouring Commercial Vehicle Segments

Passenger car sales, units

f= BMI forecast. Source: VAMA, BMI

Business Monitor International Ltd

Vietnam Autos Report Q3 2016

Low manufacturing and labour costs.

Loose monetary conditions and historically low interest rates.

New vehicle sales grew at a stellar rate over 2015.

Lack of production incentives hinder automotive sector's potential.

Underdeveloped road network.

High taxes represent a barrier to new vehicle ownership.

Business Monitor International Ltd

Vietnam Autos Report Q3 2016

Vietnam Autos Industry SWOT - Continued

The elimination of import tariffs by 2018 will become an obstacle to further

Rising traffic congestion presents an obstacle to new car sales.

Renewed slowdown in the Vietnamese economy would lead to a fall in sales.

Business Monitor International Ltd

Vietnam Autos Report Q3 2016

Vehicle production, units, mn

Vehicle production, units, % y-o-y

Vehicle sales, units, mn

Vehicle sales, units, % y-o-y

f = BMI forecast. Source: National sources, BMI

Business Monitor International Ltd

Vietnam Autos Report Q3 2016

Business Monitor International Ltd

Vietnam Autos Report Q3 2016

Production Dominated By Thaco

Business Monitor International Ltd

Vietnam Autos Report Q3 2016

Growing FDI A Boon For Auto Production

Source: VAMA, BMI

New Production Investments Will Face Old Problems

Swarming Investment Providing Short-Term Support...

Business Monitor International Ltd

Vietnam Autos Report Q3 2016

... But Long-Term Challenges Still Lurk

Business Monitor International Ltd

Vietnam Autos Report Q3 2016