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Airline Industry
AEM 4160: Strategic Pricing
Yezy Lim, Vipin Sharma, Diana Wang, Tianyi Zhang
Agenda
Executive Summary
Industry Overview
Pricing Strategies
Recommendations
Executive Summary
Industry Overview
Pricing Strategies
Recommendations
Executive Summary
Why choose the airline industry?
Information Asymmetry
Dynamic pricing makes it hard for consumers to know how prices are set
Key results
1
Price per mile vs. Miles 50% decrease (500 to 1500 miles)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Executive Summary
Industry Overview
Pricing Strategies
Recommendations
2.90%
90%
2.00%
17.30%
80%
4.30%
70%
19.10%
60%
50%
23.10%
40%
30%
INDUSTRY
20%
31.30%
10%
0%
Wages
Other
Profit
Purchases
Depreciation
Marketing
Financial Performance
Revenue has been increasing, and employment has recovered after layoffs during the financial crisis.
180,000
620,000
160,000
610,000
140,000
600,000
120,000
590,000
100,000
580,000
80,000
570,000
60,000
560,000
40,000
550,000
20,000
540,000
530,000
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
Revenue
INDUSTRY
2011
2012
2013
2014
Employment
2015
2016
Employment
Revenue ($ in M)
Financial Performance
Average net profit has been increasing due to lower crude oil prices and increased demand after the
recession.
Average Net Profit in U.S. Airline Industry
25
120
20
10
80
5
0
60
-5
40
-10
-15
20
-20
-25
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
Net Profit ($ bn)
INDUSTRY
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
100
15
Financial Performance
The U.S. domestic airline industry has experienced growing operating income, but still remains less
profitable than other industries.
Average EBIT in U.S. Airline Industry
35
0.16
0.143
0.14
30
0.118
EBIT ($ bn)
0.1
20
0.068
15
0.08
0.057
0.06
10
0.03
0.034
0.04
0.02
0
0
2010
2011
2012
EBIT ($ bn)
INDUSTRY
2013
EBIT Margin
2014
2015
EBIT Margin
0.12
25
Industry Organization
There are three main types of airlines, with the four Major Carriers dominating about 67% of the total
market share. Major Carriers also offer full service to customers without the extra charges.
Description
Distinguishing
Factors
Market Share
(per airline)
Major
Airline
Hubs
Large market share
Higher prices
All-inclusive
pricing
14% - 20%
Low Cost
Carrier
1% - 5%
Regional
Airline
Centered to region
Can operate as part
of larger airline
Small aircrafts
Less than 2%
Examples
INDUSTRY
Competition
U.S. domestic airline industry has moderate competition over price, routes, and frequency in flights.
Industry
Rivalry
Threat of New Entrants - Low
Capital intensive (aircraft, hangar,
airfield space, labor, etc.)
Incumbents benefit from network
alliances, economies of scale,
proven safety record
INDUSTRY
Industry Concentration
U.S. domestic airline industry is highly concentrated among four airlines.
Market Share
HHI
CR4
American
0.199
0.040
0.199
Southwest
0.182
0.033
0.182
Delta
0.170
0.029
0.170
United
0.147
0.022
0.147
JetBlue
0.053
0.003
Alaska
0.045
0.002
Spirit
0.026
0.001
SkyWest
0.024
0.001
Frontier
0.019
0.000
Other
0.014
0.000
1296.81
0.70
INDUSTRY
Main Competitors
There are four major players in the market, three full service airlines and one low-cost carrier.
United Continental
Holdings Inc.
Includes: Delta
INDUSTRY
Major Mergers
Each major carrier undergoes one major merger each after 2008, with two small transactions occurring
before then, consolidating the main players in the industry to four major airlines.
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
INDUSTRY
2013
2014
2015
Midstream
Downstream
Airline Industry
Labor and Personnel
Operations
Maintenance
Sales and Marketing
Reservations and
Ticketing
Staff Personnel
INDUSTRY
Forwarding Industry
Travel
Agencies
Consumers
Courier Industry
INDUSTRY
Wet Lease
Damp Lease
~ Charter plane
No crew
Dry Lease
Airline
Traditional Travel
Agents
Online Travel
Agents
Customer
INDUSTRY
Direct
Distribution Airline Website
1958: Federal
Aviation Agency
(FAA) Created
1978: Airline
Deregulation Act
1980s:
Bankruptcies and
consolidations;
begin hub and spoke
model
INDUSTRY
2009: Airline
Safety and Pilot
Training
Improvement Act
2005: US Airways,
United, Delta, and
Northwest all file
for bankruptcy by
2005
Government Regulation
Prior to deregulation, the U.S. domestic airline industry was less competitive, served fewer passengers,
and yielded higher returns.
1978 Airline Deregulation Act dissolved the Civil Aeronautics Board (CAB), which regulated U.S. airlines on where
they could fly and fares
Before
After
INDUSTRY
Executive Summary
Industry Overview
Pricing Strategies
Recommendations
Strategy
Description
Example
Dynamic Pricing
Seasonality
Mileage programs
Bulk quantity discounts
Flight Distance
Versioning
PRICING STRATEGIES
Strategy
Description
Origin
Destination
PRICING STRATEGIES
Example
Description
Advanced Booking
Discriminating between high-fare and lowfare customers and their target buying times
by allowing customers to book in advance
Overbooking
Predatory Pricing
Example
JFK to BOS
$233 1 day in advance
$78 42 days in advance
$88 126 days in advance
Southwest
In fact, the majority of overbooked flights
depart with empty seats because the formula
we use to derive our booking levels is
carefully applied and quite conservative.
Bundling
PRICING STRATEGIES
Hotel + Flight
Seat + beverages, food, services
Factor
Description
Example
Number of Competing
Airlines in a Given Airport
Mergers
PRICING STRATEGIES
Dataset Introduction
Bureau of Transportation Statistics Flight Origin and Destination Survey. Much of the analysis focuses
on three years: 2010, 2011 and 2015.
10% Sample of U.S. Domestic Flight Tickets
~3M+ Data Points per Quarter
1
2
2.5
Round Trips
PRICING STRATEGIES
One-way
Passengers
Column1
1.
Unique Itinerary ID
2.
Number of Passengers
3.
4.
Miles flown
5.
Airline
2010
52000
50000
50075
47963
50000
48000
46479
48202
45848
48000
46000
46002
44000
43194
46000
44000
42000
42000
40000
Routes
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q1
Q4
2015
52000
50699
48985
50000
47124
48000
46000
44828
45761
44000
42000
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Quarter
PRICING STRATEGIES
Q2
Q3
Q4
Number of Passengers
50000
JFK to LGA
LGA to JFK
40000
SFO to JFK
JFK to SFO
30000
LAS to SFO
LAS to LAX
20000
LAX to JFK
JFK to LAX
10000
LAX to SFO
SFO to LAX
0
2008Q3 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2013Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4
Quarter
PRICING STRATEGIES
PRICING STRATEGIES
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
-1
PRICING STRATEGIES
11
13
PRICING STRATEGIES
0.5
0.45
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q5
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q5
Quarter
AA
PRICING STRATEGIES
UA
WN
DL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q5
Major Mergers:
American Airlines & U.S. Airways American Airlines
Southwest & AirTran Southwest
Delta & Northwest Delta
United & Continental United Airlines
Announcement
price/mile
Completion
price/mile
American
2013, Q4
0.236
2015, Q4
0.256
Southwest
2010, Q3
0.182
2011, Q2
0.189
Delta
2008, Q3
0.223
2010, Q1
0.255
United
2010, Q2
0.227
2011, Q4
0.236
PRICING STRATEGIES
620
Prices (dollars)
600
580
560
540
520
500
480
460
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Quarter
JFK to LAX
PRICING STRATEGIES
LAX to JFK
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
580
530
480
R = 0.3545
430
380
580
530
480
R = 0.1992
430
380
330
330
400 420 440 460 480 500 520 540 560 580 600
330
350
580
530
R = 0.0616
480
430
380
330
400 420 440 460 480 500 520 540 560 580 600
EWR Prices (dollars)
PRICING STRATEGIES
370
Correlation Coefficient:
(EWR, JFK): 0.248
(JFK, LGA): 0.446
(EWR, LGA): 0.595
390
Prices (dollars)
Q1
Q1
500
475
450
425
400
375
350
325
300
275
250
225
200
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q2
Q3
Q4
Quarter
HOU
PRICING STRATEGIES
IAH
Q2
Q3
Q4
120000
Prices (dollars)
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Quarter
HOU
PRICING STRATEGIES
IAH
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Executive Summary
Industry Overview
Pricing Strategies
Recommendations
Investment Recommendation
International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects the industry to double net profit for 2016, due to
cheap oil and increased demand for air travel; we recommend investing in fast growth carriers.
Why Invest?
RECOMMENDATIONS
RECOMMENDATIONS
Questions?
Sources
In Order of Presentation:
Title Image:
https://tau0.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/terrell_flyin_0912_02.jpg
Industry and Market Share:
http://aviationweek.com/blog/law-changed-airline-industry-beyond-recognition-1978
http://seekingalpha.com/article/644991-in-depth-drilldown-of-the-airline-industry-part-1?page=2
http://www.statista.com/statistics/250577/domestic-market-share-of-leading-us-airlines/
IBIS World Domestic Airlines in U.S.:
http://clients1.ibisworld.com.proxy.library.cornell.edu/reports/us/industry/default.aspx?entid=1125
Aircraft Leasing:
http://www.globalplanesearch.com/aviation_library/leasing_definition.htm
More on Aircraft Leasing:
https://www.quora.com/How-does-the-airplane-leasing-business-work-Why-do-airlines-buy-the-planes-then-sell-them-to-a-leasing-company-and-then-lease-it-back
Product / ticket distribution:
http://pwc.blogs.com/industry_perspectives/2015/09/airline-ticket-distribution-how-airlines-might-reduce-global-distribution-system-gds-fees-by-encoura.html
Net Profit, EBIT, and EBIT Margin Graphs:
http://www.iata.org/whatwedo/Documents/economics/Central-forecast-end-year-2015-tables.pdf
Deregulation:
http://www.onthecommons.org/magazine/airline-deregulation-triumph-ideology-over-evidence
http://aviationweek.com/blog/law-changed-airline-industry-beyond-recognition-1978
Government regulation timeline:
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/flyingcheap/etc/cronfaa.html
GDS:
http://www.economist.com/node/21560866
Air Carrier Summary Data:
http://www.transtats.bts.gov/databases.asp?Mode_ID=1&Mode_Desc=Aviation&Subject_ID2=0
IAH vs. HOU Prices:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424053111904009304576528580064496902
Airlines at Hobby Airport:
http://www.skyscanner.com/flights-to/hou/airlines-that-fly-to-houston-hobby-airport.html
Airlines at IAH Airport:
http://www.skyscanner.com/flights-to/iah/airlines-that-fly-to-houston-george-bush-intercntl.-airport.html
Priceline Ticket Samples:
https://www.priceline.com/home/
Southwest Ticket Samples:
https://www.southwest.com/