T sch SOS2

K. POPPER
S Khn cng ca Ch ngha Lch s

T sch SOS2

POPPER
S Khn cng ca Ch ngha Lch s

Ngi dch: Nguyn Quang A

Karl
POPPER
The Poverty of Historicism

ROUTLEDGE
London and New York

 tng nh n v s n ng, n b, v tr con thuc mi tn ngng hay dn tc

hay chng tc nhng ngi tr thnh nn nhn ca lng tin pht xt v cng sn vo
cc Qui lut Khng th Lay chuyn c ca Vn mnh Lch s.

MC LC
LI GII THIU
GHI CH LCH S
LI NI U

7
9
10

Dn nhp

12

I Cc thuyt phn t nhin ca ch ngha lch s

1 Khi qut ho
2 Th nghim
3 Tnh mi
4 Tnh phc tp
5 Tnh khng chnh xc ca Tin on
6 Tnh khch quan v s nh gi
7 Chnh th lun (Holism)
8 S Hiu bit Trc gic
9 Cc Phng php nh lng
10 Bn cht lun (Essentialism) i li Thuyt duy Danh (Nominalism)
II Cc thuyt theo t nhin ca ch ngha lch s
11 So snh vi Thin vn hc. Nhng Tin on Di hn v
nhng Tin on Qui m Ln
12 C s Quan st
13 ng hc X hi
14 Cc Qui lut Lch s
15 Tin tri Lch s i li vi Ci bin X hi (Social Engineering)
16 L thuyt v Tin trin Lch s
5

14
14
16
17
18
19
20
22
24
26
28
33
34
35
36
37
37
39

17 Din gii i li vi K hoch ho Thay i X hi

18 Kt thc Phn tch
III Ph phn Cc thuyt phn t nhin ca ch ngha lch s
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26

Mc tiu thc tin ca Ph phn ny

Cch tip cn K thut n X hi hc
Ci bin (Engineering) Dn dn i li Ci bin Khng tng
Lin minh Ti li vi Ch ngha Khng tng
Ph phn Chnh th lun
L thuyt Chnh th lun v Th nghim X hi
Tnh hay thay i ca cc iu kin Th nghim
Liu Khi qut ho Hn ch cc Thi k?

IV Ph phn Cc thuyt theo t nhin ca ch ngha lch s

27 C Qui lut v Tin ho? cc Qui lut v Xu hng
28 Phng php Rt gn. Gii thch Nhn Qu.
Tin on v Tin tri
29 S Thng nht Phng php
30 Cc Khoa hc L thuyt v Lch s
31 Logic Tnh hung trong Lch s.
Din gii mang tnh Lch s
32 L thuyt Ch nh v Tin b
33 Kt lun. S Hp dn Xc cm ca Ch ngha Lch s
CH MC

42
44
46
46
48
52
56
59
63
69
72
76
76
85
91
98
101
104
108
110

LI GII THIU

Bn c cm trn tay cun th chn* ca t sch SOS2, cun S khn cng ca Ch ngha
lch s ca Karl Popper, nh trit hc ln nht th k 20. ng ni ting v nhng nghin
cu phng php lun khoa hc. Cun Logic der Forschung [Logic Nghin cu] c
xut bn u tin nm 1934 v c dch sang ting Anh vi tiu Logic of Scientific
Discovery c nh hng mnh m n phng php khoa hc ca cc khoa hc t
nhin. Cun sch ny cng c xut x t cc nm 1930 v ln u tin c xut bn vo
cc nm 1944, 1945.
Cun sch ny ch ra rng lng tin vo vn mnh lch s ch l s m tn, v rng
khng th c s tin on no v din tin ca lch s loi ngi bng cc phng php
khoa hc hay duy l khc no.
Hc thuyt tin vo vn mnh lch s v tin vo vic c th tin on din tin ca lch
s, v trn c s c th ci bin x hi mt cch tng th cho ph hp vi cc qui lut
ny, c ng gi l ch ngha lch s (historicism). Trc khi ph phn ch ngha lch
s, trong hai chng u ng m t cc thuyt lch s ch ngha, v ch sau trong hai
chng cui ng mi ph phn n. Tc l, trong hai chng u ng i m t nghim
ngt ci m ng s tn cng trong hai chng cui. Cch lm ny c im hay l ph
phn ca ng s rt cht ch, r rng l n ph phn ci g; ch khng nh nhiu ph
phn m chng ta thng bt gp, khng nu tng minh ci mun ph phn l g, nn d
dn n nhm ln. Tuy nhin n cng c nhc im l, s c th c ngi cho rng ci
ng ph phn thc ra khng c thc, m ch do ng to ra. Phn xt cui cng l ca bn
c.
Li tng ca ng c th gy sc cho mt s bn c Vit Nam, v c l chnh v n
v v ni dung ca tiu lun ny m Vit Nam (v cc nc x hi ch ngha trc y)
tc phm ny ca Popper c t ngi bit n. Tuy vy, c k chng ta s bit c
rt nhiu vn m n nay chng ta cha bit hay khng c php bit, v c th gip
chng ta c phng php thch hp trong thc hin ci cch x hi, mt vic phi c
tin hnh lin tc, theo cch dn dn, t t, tng phn mt. Chng ta c th nhn li qu
kh ca mnh, ca cc nc x hi ch ngha, c th hc c t cc sai lm, th lm v
chc chn s vp phi sai lm khc, pht hin ra sai lm mi, sa chng v li th tip.
*

Cc quyn trc gm:

1. J. Kornai: Con ng dn ti nn kinh t th trng, Hi Tin hc Vit Nam 2001, Nh Xut bn
Vn ho Thng tin (NXB VHTT) 2002.
2. J. Kornai: H thng X hi ch ngha, NXB Vn ho Thng tin 2002
3. J. Kornai- K. Eggleston: Chm sc sc kho cng ng, NXB VHTT 2002
4. G. Soros: Gi kim thut ti chnh, sp xut bn
5. H. de Soto: S b n ca t bn, sp xut bn (Nh Xut bn Chnh tr Quc gia, 2004)
6. J. E. Stiglitz: Ch ngha x hi i v u?sp xut bn
7. F.A. Hayek: Con ng dn ti ch nng n, sp xut bn
8. G. Soros: X hi M, sp xut bn

 l cch tip cn th-v-sai, cch tip cn khoa hc c hiu qu khng ch trong cc

khoa hc t nhin v c trong cc khoa hc x hi.
Cun sch c th b ch cho cc hc gi, cc nh hoch nh chnh sch, v tt c
nhng ai quan tm n nhng vn phng php lun ca cc khoa hc x hi.
Mi ch thch ca tc gi c nh bng s. Tt c cc ch thch nh du sao (*) l
ca ngi dch. Bn dch chc cn nhiu thiu st mong bn c thng cm, lng th,
v ch bo; xin lin h theo a ch Tp ch Tin hc v i sng, 54 Hong Ngc Phch
H Ni [25/B7 Nam Thnh Cng], hoc qua in th thds@hn.vnn.vn hay
nqa@netnam.vn
H Ni 5-2004
Nguyn Quang A

GHI CH LCH S

Lun cn bn ca cun sch ny l lng tin vo vn mnh lch s ch l s m tn, v

rng khng th c s tin on no v din tin ca lch s loi ngi bng cc phng
php khoa hc hay duy l khc no truy nguyn ti ma ng 1919-1920. Phc tho
chnh c hon tt vo nm 1935; n c trnh by ln u tin, vo thng Ging hay
thng Hai 1936, nh mt bi mang ta S khn cng ca Ch ngha Lch s, mt
phin ring ti nh ca bn ti Alfred Braunthal Brussels. Ti bui gp ny, mt sinh
vin trc y ca ti c mt s ng gp quan trng cho tho lun. l Dr. Karl
Hilferding, chng bao lu sau l nn nhn ca Gestapo v ca nhng m tn ca
ch Th ba. Cng c mt mt s trit gia khc. Khng lu sau, ti trnh by mt bi
tng t trong Seminar ca Gio s Hayek, Trng Kinh t hc London. Vic cng b
b chm vi nm v bn tho ca ti b tp ch trit hc m ti np t chi. N c
cng b u tin, gm ba phn, trong Economica, N.S., vol. XI no. 42 v 43, nm 1944,
v vol. XII, no. 46, 1945. K t , mt bn dch ting (Milano, 1954) v mt bn dch
ting Php (Paris, 1956) c xut bn dng sch. Vn bn ca ln xut bn ny
c sot li, v c mt vi b sung.
K.R. P. 1957

LI NI U

Ti th chng minh, trong S Khn cng ca Ch ngha Lch s, rng ch ngha lch
s l mt phng php ti - mt phng php chng c kt qu g. Nhng ti khng
tht s b c ch ngha lch s.
K t , ti thnh cng bc b ch ngha lch s: Ti chng minh rng, v cc l
l logic nghim ngt, l khng th i vi chng ta tin on din tin tng lai ca
lch s.
L l cha ng trong mt bi bo, Thuyt Bt nh trong Vt l C in v Vt l
Lng t, m ti cng b nm 1950. Nhng ti khng cn tho mn vi bi bo ny.
Mt nghin cu tho mn hn c th thy trong mt chng v Thuyt Bt nh, mt
phn ca Ti bt: Sau Hai mi Nm (Postscript: After Twenty Years) cho cun Logic
ca Khm ph Khoa hc (Logic of Scientific Discovery) ca ti.
thng bo vi bn c v cc kt qu mi hn ny, ti d nh, bng vi li, a ra
phc ho ca s bc b ch ngha lch s ny. L l c th c tm tt trong nm khng
nh nh sau:
1. Din tin ca lch s loi ngi b nh hng mnh bi s gia tng hiu bit ca
con ngi. (Tnh ng n ca tin ny ngay c nhng ngi thy trong cc
tng, bao gm cc tng khoa hc ca chng ta, ch nh cc sn phm ph ca
s pht trin vt cht loi ny hay loi khc, cng phi tha nhn).
2. Chng ta khng th tin on, bng cc phng php duy l hay khoa hc, s gia
tng tng lai v hiu bit khoa hc ca chng ta. (Khng nh ny c th c
chng minh v mt logic, bng nhng cn nhc c phc ho di y).
3. Chng ta khng th, v th, tin on din tin tng lai ca lch s loi ngi.
4. iu ny c ngha rng chng ta phi bc b kh nng ca lch s l thuyt; tc l,
ca mt khoa hc x hi lch s c th tng ng vi vt l l thuyt. Khng th c
l thuyt khoa hc no v pht trin lch s dng lm c s cho tin on lch s.
5. Mc ch cn bn ca cc phng php lch s ch ngha (xem cc chng 11 n
16 ca cun sch ny) v th l sai lm; v ch ngha lch s sp .
L l, tt nhin, khng bc b kh nng ca mi loi tin on x hi; ngc li, n
hon ton tng thch vi kh nng kim tra cc l thuyt x hi- th d, cc l thuyt kinh
t- bng cch tin on nhng din bin no s din ra di cc iu kin nht nh.
N ch bc b kh nng tin on nhng din tin lch s chng mc chng c th b
nh hng bi s gia tng hiu bit ca chng ta.
Bc quyt nh trong lp lun ny l khng nh (2). Ti ngh rng t n c tnh
thuyt phc: nu c ci nh hiu bit gia tng ca con ngi, th hm nay chng ta
khng th bit trc ci chng ta s bit ngay ch ngy mai. y, ti ngh, l lp lun
vng chc, nhng n cha c tnh l mt chng minh logic ca khng nh. Chng
minh ca (2), m ti trnh by trong nhng cng b c nhc n, l phc tp; v ti
khng ngc nhin nu c th thy nhng chng minh n gin hn. Chng minh ca ti
bao gm vic chng t rng khng c (b) tin on no -bt lun l mt nh khoa hc
hay mt my tnh, c th tin on cc kt qu tng lai ca chnh n bng cc phng
10

php khoa hc. Cc n lc lm nh vy t kt qu ch sau s kin, khi qu mun cho

mt tin on; chng c th t kt qu ch sau khi tin on bin thnh din gii li.
L l ny, thun tu mang tnh logic, p dng cho cc b tin on khoa hc c bt k
phc tp no, bao gm c x hi ca cc b tin on tng tc vi nhau. Nhng
iu ny c ngha l khng x hi no c th tin on cc trng thi hiu bit tng lai
ca chnh n mt cch khoa hc.
L l ca ti kh hnh thc, v v th n c th b nghi ng l khng c my ngha
thc t, d cho tnh hp l logic ca n c cho l d nhin.
Tuy vy, ti th chng t tm quan trng ca vn trong hai cng trnh. Trong
cng trnh sau ca hai nghin cu ny, trong The Open Society and its Enemies (X hi
M v cc K th ca n), ti la chn mt s s kin t lch s ca t tng lch s
ch ngha, nhm minh ho nh hng dai dng v nguy hi ca n ln trit l x hi v
chnh tr, t Heraclitus v Plato n Hegel v Marx. Trong cng trnh trc ca hai
nghin cu ny, trong S Khn cng ca Ch ngha lch s (The Poverty of Historicism),
by gi c xut bn ln u tin bng ting Anh di dng sch, ti c ch ra tm
quan trng ca ch ngha lch s nh mt cu trc tr tu quyn r. Ti c gng phn
tch logic ca n - thng rt tinh t, cc k l th v rt d nh la v lp lun rng n
c yu im c hu v khng th sa c.
K.R. P.
Penn, Buckinghamsgire,
Thng 7, 1957
Mt vi trong cc nh ph bnh am hiu nht ca cun sch ny b tiu ca n
lm cho bi ri. N c nh m ch n tiu ca cun S Khn cng ca Trit hc
(The Poverty of Philosophy) ca Marx, tiu n lt n, li m ch n Philosophy
of Poverty (Trit hc ca s Khn cng) ca Proudhon.
K.R.P.
Penn, Buckinghamshire,
Thng 7, 1959

11

DN NHP

Mi quan tm khoa hc v cc vn x hi v chnh tr hu nh khng km xa so vi

mi quan tm khoa hc v v tr hc v vt l hc; v c cc giai on trong thi c
(Ti ngh n l thuyt chnh tr ca Plato, v su tp hin php ca Aristotle) khi khoa
hc x hi c th dng nh tin b hn khoa hc t nhin. Nhng vi Galileo v
Newton, thnh cng ca vt l hc vt s mong i, vt xa tt c cc khoa hc
khc; v t thi Pasteur, Galileo ca sinh hc, cc khoa hc sinh hc hu nh thnh
cng ngang vy. Nhng cc khoa hc x hi vn dng nh cha tm thy Galileo ca
mnh.
Trong nhng hon cnh nh vy, cc nh nghin cu lm vic trong ngnh ny hay
ngnh khc ca cc khoa hc x hi c bit quan tm n cc vn phng php; v
phn ln tho lun ca h v nhng vn ny c tin hnh vi ci nhn n cc
phng php ca cc khoa hc thnh cng hn, c bit l vt l hc. Th d, c n lc
c thc sao chp phng php thc nghim ca vt l, iu dn, trong th h ca
Wundt, n ci cch tm l hc; v t J. S. Mill, c cc n lc lp i lp li ci cch
phng php ca cc khoa hc x hi theo hng gn tng t. Trong lnh vc tm l
hc, nhng ci cch ny c th c mc thnh cng no , bt chp rt nhiu tht
vng. Nhng trong cc khoa hc x hi l thuyt, ngoi kinh t hc, chng c g ngoi
s tht vng t cc th nghim ny. Khi tho lun cc tht bi ny, mau chng ny sinh
cu hi liu cc phng php ca vt l hc thc s c p dng c cho cc khoa hc x
hi hay khng. Hay c l nim tin khng khng vo kh nng c th p dng chnh l ci
phi chu trch nhim v trng thi ng phn nn ca cc ngnh khoa hc ny?
Cch t vn ny gi mt s phn loi n gin cc trng phi t duy quan tm
n phng php ca cc khoa hc t thnh cng hn. Theo quan im ca chng v kh
nng c th p dng cc phng php ca vt l hc, chng ta c th phn loi cc trng
phi ny nh theo t nhin hoc nh phn t nhin; gn cho chng nhn theo t nhin
hay tch cc nu chng ng h vic p dng cc phng php ca vt l hc cho cc
khoa hc x hi, v phn t nhin hay tiu cc nu chng phn i s dng cc
phng php ny.
Liu mt nh nghin cu phng php tn thnh hc thuyt phn t nhin hay theo t
nhin, hoc chp nhn mt l thuyt kt hp c hai hc thuyt hay khng, s ch yu ph
thuc vo quan im ca ng ta v c trng ca khoa hc c xem xt, v c tnh ca
i tng ca n. Nhng thi m ng ta chp nhn s cng ph thuc vo quan im
ca ng ta v cc phng php ca vt l hc. Ti tin im sau cng ny l quan trng
nht. V ti ngh rng nhng sai lm ct yu trong hu ht tho lun v phng php lun
ny sinh t mt s hiu lm rt ph bin v cc phng php ca vt l hc. c bit, ti
ngh chng ny sinh t mt din gii sai v hnh thc logic ca cc l thuyt ca n, v
cc phng php kim tra chng, v v chc nng logic ca quan st v th nghim. Ti
cho rng nhng hiu lm ny c cc hu qu nghim trng; v ti s th bin minh lun
im ny cc chng 3 v 4 ca nghin cu ny. ti s c gng chng t rng cc
l l v hc thuyt khc nhau v i khi mu thun nhau, phn t nhin cng nh theo t
nhin, thc ra da vo mt s hiu sai lm v cc phng php ca vt l hc. Trong cc
12

chng 1 v 2, tuy vy, ti s gii hn mnh vic gii thch cc hc thuyt phn t
nhin v theo t nhin no to thnh mt cch tip cn c trng trong c hai loi
hc thuyt c kt hp.
Cch tip cn, m u tin ti mun gii thch, v ch ph phn mun hn, c ti gi
l ch ngha lch s. Thng gp n trong cc tho lun v phng php ca cc khoa
hc x hi; v n thng c dng m khng c nhn xt ph phn, hoc thm ch c
coi l d nhin. Ti hiu ch ngha lch s ngha l g s c gii thch y trong
nghin cu ny. S l nu ti ni y rng ti hiu ch ngha lch s l mt cch
tip cn i vi cc khoa hc x hi cho rng tin on lch s l mc ch chnh ca
chng, v cho rng mc ch ny c th t c bng khm ph ra cc nhp iu hay
hnh mu, cc qui lut hay xu hng lm c s cho tin ho ca lch s. V ti tin
chc rng cui cng cc hc thuyt lch s ch ngha nh vy v phng php chu trch
nhim v tnh trng thu no ca cc khoa hc x hi l thuyt (ngoi l thuyt kinh t),
trnh by ca ti v cc hc thuyt ny chc chn khng phi khng c thnh kin.
Nhng ti c gng ht sc bin h cho ch ngha lch s nhm tnh im cho ph
phn tip sau ca ti. Ti c gng trnh by ch ngha lch s nh mt trit l thng
nht c cn nhc k lng. V ti khng do d to ra cc l l ng h n m, theo
hiu bit ca ti, bn thn cc nh lch s ch ngha cha bao gi a ra. Ti hi vng,
bng cch ny, ti thnh cng xy p mt v tr tht s ng tn cng. Ni cch khc,
ti c gng hon thin mt l thuyt thng c a ra, nhng c l chng bao gi
trong mt dng c pht trin y . l l do v sao ti chn mt cch c cn
nhc k lng thut ng hi l l ch ngha lch s. Bng cch gii thiu n ti hi vng
trnh c tr chi ch n thun: v, ti hi vng, chng ai s b cm d nghi ng liu
bt k l l no c tho lun y c thuc v ch ngha lch s mt cch thc s hay
ng hay bn cht hay khng, hoc thut ng ch ngha lch s tht s hay chnh xc
hay thc cht c ngha l g.

13

I
__________________________

CC THUYT PHN-T NHIN

CA CH NGHA LCH S

Ngc li hon ton ch ngha t nhin phng php lun trong lnh vc x hi hc, ch
ngha lch s cho rng vi trong cc phng php c trng ca vt l hc khng th p
dng c cho cc khoa hc x hi, do nhng khc bit su sc gia x hi hc v vt l
hc. N bo chng ta, cc nh lut vt l, hoc cc nh lut t nhin c hiu lc mi
ni v mi lc; v th gii vt l c iu khin bi mt h thng cc i lng vt l
ng u bt bin trong khng gian v thi gian. Cc nh lut x hi hc, hoc cc nh
lut ca i sng x hi, tuy vy, li khc nhau cc ni v cc giai on khc nhau.
Mc d ch ngha lch s tha nhn rng c nhiu iu kin x hi in hnh m s ti
din u n c th c quan st, n t chi rng nhng s u n c th pht hin
c trong i sng x hi c c tnh ca nhng s u n khng th thay i c
ca th gii vt l. V chng ph thuc vo lch s, v vo nhng khc bit v vn ho.
Chng ph thuc vo tnh th lch s c bit. Nh th ta khng th, th d, ni m khng
nu r thm v cc qui lut kinh t, m ch c th ni v cc qui lut kinh t ca giai on
phong kin, hay ca thi k u cng nghip, v vn vn; lun lun nhc n giai on
lch s trong cc qui lut c ni n c cho l thnh hnh.
Ch ngha lch s khng nh rng tnh tng i lch s ca cc qui lut x hi lm
cho hu ht phng php ca vt l hc khng th p dng c cho x hi hc. Cc l l
lch s ch ngha in hnh m quan nim ny da vo lin quan n khi qut ho, th
nghim, tnh phc tp ca cc hin tng x hi, nhng kh khn ca tin on chnh
xc, v tm quan trng ca ch ngha bn cht phng php lun. Ti s tho lun ln
lt cc l l ny.

14

1 KHI QUT
HO
Theo ch ngha lch s, kh nng ca khi qut ho v thnh cng ca n trong cc khoa
hc vt l da vo tnh ng u ph bin ca t nhin: vo quan st- c l c m t
ng hn nh mt gi thit - rng trong cc hon cnh ging nhau nhng vic ging nhau
xy ra. Nguyn l ny, c cho l c hiu lc c trong khng gian v thi gian, c ni
l to c s cho phng php ca vt l hc.
Ch ngha lch s khng nh rng nguyn l ny nht thit v dng trong x hi hc.
Nhng hon cnh ging nhau ch xy ra trong phm vi mt giai on lch s duy nht.
Chng chng bao gi ko t mt giai on sang giai on khc. Do khng c s ng
u di hn trong x hi m cc khi qut ho di hn c th da vo - tc l, nu chng
ta b qua nhng s u n tm thng, nh c ch ngha v tha m t rng con ngi
lun sng theo nhm, hoc rng cung ca cc th no c gii hn cn cung ca cc
th khc, nh khng kh, l v hn, v ch c cc th trc c th c bt k gi tr th
trng hay trao i no.
Theo ch ngha lch s, mt phng php b qua s hn ch ny v c khi qut ho
nhng ng u x hi s ngm gi thit rng nhng s u n c ni n ko di
mun tha; cho nn mt quan im u tr v phng php lun quan im cho rng cc
khoa hc x hi c th ly phng php khi qut ho t vt l hc- s to ra mt l thuyt
x hi hc sai v la di mt cch nguy him. N s l mt l thuyt t chi, rng x hi
pht trin; hoc rng n tng thay i mt cch ng k; hoc rng s pht trin x hi,
nu c, c th tc ng n nhng tnh u n ca i sng x hi.
Cc nh lch s ch ngha hay nhn mnh rng ng sau cc l thuyt sai lm nh vy
thng c mt mc ch bin gii; v thc vy, gi thit v cc qui lut x hi hc khng
thay i c th d b lm dng cho cc mc ch nh vy. N c th xut hin, u tin,
nh l l rng cc th kh chu v khng c a phi c chp nhn v chng c cc
qui lut bt bin ca t nhin qui nh. Th d, cc qui lut khng lay chuyn c ca
kinh t hc c vin dn chng minh s v ch ca s can thip theo lut vo mc
c lng. Mt s lm dng bin gii th hai ca gi thit v tnh dai dng l n nui
dng cm nhn chung v tnh khng th trnh khi, v nh th v s sn sng cam chu
s khng th trnh khi mt cch yn lng v khng c khng c. Ci hin thi s ko
di mi mi, v cc mu toan tc ng n tin trnh ca cc s kin, hoc ngay c nh
gi n, l l bch: ta khng l l chng li cc qui lut t nhin, v cc mu toan vt b
chng ch c th dn n thm ho.
Nh lch s ch ngha cho rng, cc l l bo th, bin gii, thm ch an phn ny l h
qu tt yu ca i hi phng php theo t nhin phi c chp nhn trong x hi hc.
Ngi theo ch ngha lch s phn i chng bng xc nhn rng nhng s ng u
x hi khc xa s ng u ca cc khoa hc t nhin. Chng thay i t mt giai on
lch s sang giai on khc, v hot ng ca con ngi l lc lm thay i chng. V
15

nhng s ng u x hi khng phi l cc qui lut t nhin, m l nhn to; v mc d

c th ni chng ph thuc vo bn cht con ngi, chng l vy v bn cht con ngi
c nng lc thay i v, c l, iu khin chng. V vy cc th c th c lm tt
ln hay xu i; ci cch tch cc khng phi l v ch.
Cc xu hng ny ca ch ngha lch s hp dn nhng ngi cm thy bn phn phi
tch cc; can thip, c bit vo cng vic i, t chi chp nhn hin trng nh ci
khng th trnh khi. Xu hng hnh ng v chng li s tho mn thuc bt k loi
no c th c gi l ch ngha hnh ng. Ti s ni k hn v quan h ca ch ngha
lch s vi ch ngha hnh ng cc mc 17 v 18; nhng ti c th trch dn y mt
li ku gi ni ting ca Marx, mt nh lch s ch ngha ni ting, biu hin thi
hnh ng ch ngha mt cch ni bt: Cc trit gia ch l gii th gii theo nhng
cch khc nhau; vn tuy vy l bin i n.1

2 TH NGHIM
Vt l hc s dng phng php th nghim; tc l, n a ra s iu khin nhn to, s
c lp nhn to, v do m bo s ti to cc iu kin tng t, v s to ra nht
qun cc tc ng nht nh. Phng php ny hin nhin da vo tng rng u
cc iu kin l gng nhau, nhng th gng nhau s xy ra. Nh lch s ch ngha cho
rng phng php ny khng th p dng trong x hi hc. N cng chng ch g, anh ta
lp lun, ngay c gi nh c th p dng c. V cc iu kin ging nhau xut hin ch
trong phm vi gii hn ca mt giai on duy nht, kt qu ca bt k th nghim no s
c tm quan trng rt hn ch. Hn na, s cch li nhn to s loi b chnh nhng nhn
t quan trng nht trong x hi hc. Robinson Crusoe v nn kinh t n nht ca anh ta
chng bao gi c th l mt m hnh c gi tr ca mt nn kinh t m cc vn ca n
ny sinh chnh t tng tc kinh t ca cc c nhn v cc nhm.
H lp lun tip l khng th c cc th nghim c gi tr tht s no. Cc th nghim
qui m ln trong x hi hc chng bao gi l cc th nghim theo ngha vt l. Chng
khng c thc hin lm cho tri thc vi cng v nh th tin b, m t c
thnh cng chnh tr. Chng khng c thc hin trong mt phng th nghim tch bit
khi th gii bn ngoi; ng hn, chnh vic thc hin chng lm thay i cc iu kin
x hi. Chng chng bao gi c lp li di cc iu kin ging nhau mt cch chnh
xc v cc iu kin thay i bi s thc hin u tin ca chng.

Xem lun mi mt ca These on Feuerbach (1845) ca ng; xem c mc 17, di.

16

3 TNH MI
L l va c nhc ti ng bn chi tit thm. Ch ngha lch s, nh ti ni, t chi
kh nng lp li cc th nghim x hi qui m ln trong cc iu kin ging nhau mt
cch chnh xc, v cc iu kin ca ln thc hin th hai phi b nh hng bi s thc
l th nghim c thc hin trc . L l ny da vo tng rng x hi, ging
mt sinh vt, c mt loi k c m chng ta thng gi l lch s ca n.
Trong sinh hc, chng ta c th ni v lch s cuc sng ca mt sinh vt v mt sinh
vt tu thuc mt phn vo cc s kin qua. Nu cc s kin nh vy lp li, th i
vi cc sinh vt tri nghim s mt i c tnh mi ca chng, v tr nn m mu thi
quen. Nhng iu ny l chnh xc v sao tri nghim s kin lp li khng ht nh tri
nghim s kin ban u v sao tri nghim s lp li l mi. S lp li ca cc s kin
quan st c v th c th tng ng vi s ni ln ca cc kinh nghim mi trong mt
nh quan st. V n to ra cc thi quen mi, s lp li to ra cc iu kin mi, quen
thuc. Tng ton b cc iu kin bn trong v bn ngoi - di chng ta lp li mt
th nghim no trn mt v cng sinh vt v th khng th l ging nhau cho
chng ta ni v mt s lp li ch thc. V ngay c s lp li chnh xc cc iu kin
mi trng s kt hp vi cc iu kin ni ti mi trong sinh vt: c th hc qua tri
nghim.
Cng th, theo ch ngha lch s, ng vi x hi, v x hi cng tri nghim: n cng
c lch s ca mnh. N c th ch hc chm chp t nhng lp li (mt phn) lch s ca
n, nhng khng th nghi ng l n c hc, chng mc n b tu thuc vo qu kh
ca n. Cc truyn thng v lng trung thnh vi truyn thng v s on gin, s tin cy
v s nghi k, nu khc i c th khng ng vai tr quan trng ca chng trong i sng
x hi. S lp li tht s v vy phi l khng th trong lch s x hi; v iu ny c
ngha l phi cho rng cc s kin mang c tnh mi thc cht s ni ln. Lch s c th
t lp li- nhng chng bao gi cng mc, c bit nu cc s kin lin quan c tm
quan trng lch s, v nu chng c nh hng di lu ln x hi.
Trong th gii c vt l hc m t, chng g mi thc s v thc cht c th xy ra.
Mt ng c mi c th c sng ch, nhng chng ta lun c th phn tch n nh s
ti sp xp ca cc yu t nhng ci l bt k th g song khng mi. Tnh mi trong vt
l hc n thun l tnh mi v s sp xp hay t hp. Hon ton i lp vi iu ny,
tnh mi x hi, ging tnh mi sinh hc, l mt loi thc cht ca tnh mi, nh lch s
ch ngha khng khng. N l tnh mi tht s, khng th qui v tnh mi ca s sp xp.
V trong i sng x hi, cng cc nhn t c trong mt s sp xp mi chng bao gi
thc s l cng cc nhn t c. Ni chng g c th t lp li mt cch chnh xc, tnh
mi thc s phi lun hin ra. iu ny c coi l quan trng cho cn nhc v tin trin
ca cc giai on hay thi k mi ca lch s, mi trong s khc ln nhau v bn cht.
Ch ngha lch s cho rng chng g quan trng hn s ni ln ca mt thi k mi
thc s. Kha cnh v cng quan trng ny ca i sng x hi khng th c nghin
cu theo cng cch, m chng ta quen theo, khi gii thch cc tnh mi trong lnh vc
vt l bng cch coi chng nh s ti sp xp ca cc nguyn t quen thuc. D cho cc
phng php thng thng ca vt l hc gi nh c c ng dng cho x hi, chng
17

chng bao gi p dng c cho cc c tnh quan trng nht ca n: s phn chia thnh
cc thi k, v s ni ln ca tnh mi. Mt khi lnh hi c tm quan trng ca tnh mi
x hi, chng ta buc phi t b tng l vic p dng cc phng php vt l bnh
thng cho cc vn x hi hc c th gip chng ta hiu cc vn tin trin x hi.
C mt kha cnh na ca tnh mi x hi. Chng ta thy rng mi bin c x hi c
bit, mi s kin n nht trong i sng x hi, c th c cho l mi, theo mt ngha
no . N c th c phn loi vi cc s kin khc; n c th ging cc s kin
cc kha cnh no ; nhng n s lun l n nht theo mt cch rt xc nh. iu ny,
chng mc lin quan n gii thch sinh hc, dn n mt trng thi khc r rt vi
trng thi trong vt l hc. C th hnh dung rng, bng phn tch i sng x hi, chng
ta c th c kh nng khm ph ra, v hiu mt cch trc gic, bt c s kin c bit no
xy ra th no v v sao; rng chng ta c th hiu r rng nguyn nhn v kt qu ca n
cc lc gn vi n v nh hng ca n n cc s kin khc. Song chng ta tuy nhin
c th thy l mnh khng c kh nng trnh by cc qui lut chung, nhng ci c th
dng nh mt s m t cc mi lin kt nhn qu nh vy mt cch tng qut. V n c
th l tnh hung x hi hc c bit duy nht, khng phi khc, c th c gii thch
bng cc lc c bit m chng ta khm ph ra. V cc lc ny c th ng l n nht:
chng c th ni ln ch mt ln, trong tnh hung x hi c bit ny, v chng bao gi
tr li.

4 TNH PHC TP
Tnh th phng php lun va c phc ho c mt s kha cnh na. Mt c
tho lun rt thng xuyn (v s khng c tho lun y) l vai tr x hi hc ca
cc nhn vt v song no . Mt kha cnh khc ca cc kha cnh ny l tnh phc tp
ca cc hin tng x hi. Trong vt l hc chng ta i ph vi mt ch th t phc tp
hn nhiu; bt chp iu , chng ta cn n gin ho hn na mt cch nhn to bng
phng php c lp th nghim. Do phng php ny khng th p dng c trong x
hi hc chng ta i mt vi s phc tp gp i - mt s phc tp ny sinh do tnh
khng th c lp mt cch nhn to, v mt s phc tp do s thc l i sng x hi l
mt hin tng t nhin gi nh trc cuc sng tinh thn ca cc c nhn, tc l tm l
hc, ci n lt n li gi nh trc sinh hc, ci li gi nh trc ho hc v vt l
hc. S thc l x hi hc ng cui trong th bc ny ca cc khoa hc cho chng ta
thy mt cch r rng s phc tp kinh khng ca cc nhn t dnh lu n i sng x
hi. Cho d c s ng u x hi hc khng th bin i c, nh s ng u trong
lnh vc vt l, c th chng ta hon ton khng c kh nng tm ra chng, v s phc tp
kp ny. Song nu chng ta khng th tm ra n, th c t gi tr trong ch trng l tuy
th chng tn ti.
18

5 TNH KHNG
CHNH XC CA
TIN ON
S c ch ra trong tho lun v cc hc thuyt theo t nhin rng ch ngha lch s c
thin hng nhn mnh tm quan trng ca tin on nh mt trong nhng nhim v ca
khoa hc. (V kha cnh ny, ti hon ton ng , d ti khng tin rng tin tri lch s l
mt trong cc nhim v ca cc khoa hc x hi). Th nhng ch ngha lch s l l rng
tin on x hi phi l rt kh khn, khng ch v tnh phc tp ca cc cu trc x hi,
m cng v tnh phc tp l k ny sinh t lin kt gia cc tin on v cc s kin c
tin on.
tng rng s tin on c th c nh hng ln s kin c tin on l mt tng
rt c. Oedipus, trong truyn thuyt, git cha mnh ngi ng cha bao gi thy trc
; v iu ny l kt qu trc tip ca li tin tri khin cha ng t b ng. l l do
v sao ti gi tn hiu ng Oedipus cho nh hng ca s tin on ln s kin c
tin on (hoc, tng qut hn, cho nh hng ca mt mn thng tin ln tnh hnh m
thng tin dn chiu n), bt lun nh hng ny c xu hng gy ra s kin c tin
on, hay c xu hng ngn cn n.
Cc nh lch s ch ngha gn y ch ra rng loi nh hng ny c th l thch ng
cho cc khoa hc x hi; iu c th lm tng s kh khn a ra cc tin on chnh
xc v gy nguy him cho tnh khch quan ca chng. H ni rng cc hu qu v l c
th rt ra t gi thit rng cc khoa hc x hi tng c th c pht trin n mc
cho php cc d bo chnh xc ca mi loi s thc v s kin x hi, v gi thit ny v
th c th b bc thun tu trn c s logic. V, nu gi nh mt loi lch x hi, khoa
hc, mi nh vy c lp ra v tr nn quen bit (khng th gi b mt n lu v v
nguyn tc n c th c bt k ai ti khm ph ra) n s chc chn gy ra cc hnh
ng lm o ln cc tin on ca n. Gi s, th d, c tin on l gi c phn s
tng trong ba ngy v sau st gim. Hin nhin, mi ngi c quan h vi th trng
s bn vo ngy th ba, gy st gi vo ngy v chng minh tin on l sai. Tm li,
tng v mt lch chnh xc v chi tit ca cc s kin x hi l t mu thun; v cc
tin on x hi khoa hc chnh xc v chi tit v vy l khng th.

19

6 TNH KHCH
QUAN V S
NH GI
Khi nhn mnh nhng kh khn v tin on trong cc khoa hc x hi, chng ta thy
ch ngha lch s a ra cc l l da trn phn tch v nh hng ca cc tin on ln
cc s kin c tin on. Nhng theo ch ngha lch s, nh hng ny c th, di
nhng hon cnh nht nh, c nhng tc ng li quan trng ln nh quan st ang tin
on. Nhng suy xt tng t ng mt vai tr thm ch c trong vt l hc, ni mi quan
st u da trn s trao i nng lng gia nh quan st v ci c quan st; iu ny
dn n s bt nh, thng c th c b qua, ca cc tin on vt l, ci c
nguyn l bt nh m t. C th cho rng s bt nh ny l do mt tng tc gia
khch th c quan st v ch th ang quan st v c hai u thuc v cng th gii vt
l ca tc ng v tng tc. Nh Bohr ch ra, c nhng s tng t trong cc khoa
hc khc i vi tnh th ny trong vt l hc, c bit trong sinh hc v tm l hc.
Nhng chng u s thc l nh khoa hc v i tng ca ng ta li thuc v cng
mt th gii c tm quan trng hn trong cc khoa hc x hi, ni n dn n (nh
c chng t) mt s bt nh ca tin on, iu i khi c tm quan trng thc tin
ln.
Chng ta i mt, trong cc khoa hc x hi, vi mt tng tc y v phc tp
gia nh quan st v ci c quan st, gia ch th v khch th. Bit s tn ti ca cc
khuynh hng c th to ra mt s kin tng lai, v, hn na, bit rng bn thn tin
on c th gy nh hng ln cc s kin c tin on chc c nhng tc ng li ln
ni dung tin on; v cc tc ng li ny c th l loi lm suy yu nghim trng tnh
khch quan ca cc tin on v ca cc kt qu nghin cu khc trong cc khoa hc x
hi.
Mt tin on l mt bin c x hi c th tng tc vi cc bin c x hi khc, v
gia chng vi bin c m n tin on. N c th, nh ta thy, gip tin on s
kin ny; nhng c th d dng thy l n cng c th nh hng theo cch khc. N c
th, trong trng hp cc oan, thm ch gy ra s c n tin on: bin c c th
khng h xy ra nu gi nh n khng c tin on. thi cc khc s tin on v
mt s kin sp xy ra c th ngn cn n (n mc c th ni v nh khoa hc x hi,
ngi c hay v tnh khng tin on, l c th gy ra, hoc lm cho n xy ra). R
rng c nhiu trng hp trung gian gia hai thi cc ny. Hnh ng tin on ci g
, v vic king khng tin on, c hai c th c mi loi h qu.
By gi r rng l cc nh khoa hc x hi, vi thi gian, bit v nhng kh nng
ny. Mt nh khoa hc x hi, th d, c th tin on ci g , d kin trc l tin
20

on ca mnh s lm cho n xy ra. Hoc ng ta c th t chi rng mt s kin no

c d kin, bng cch y ngn cn n. V trong c hai trng hp ng ta c th tn
trng nguyn l c v nh m bo s khch quan khoa hc: v ni s tht v khng g
khc ngoi s tht. Nhng du cho ng ta ni s tht, chng ta khng th ni rng ng
ta tn trng tnh khch quan khoa hc; v bng vic a ra cc tin on (m cc bin
c sp ti s tho mn) ng ta c th nh hng n nhng bin c theo hng m
c nhn ng ta a thch.
Nh lch s ch ngha c th tha nhn l bc tranh ny c hi s lc, nhng ng ta
khng khng rng n lm ni bt mt im chng ta thy hu nh trong mi ti ca
cc khoa hc x hi. Tng tc gia nhng tuyn b ca nh khoa hc v i sng x hi
hu nh lun to ra cc tnh hung trong chng ta khng ch xem xt s tht ca
nhng tuyn b nh vy, m cng xem xt c nh hng thc t ca chng ln din tin
tng lai. Nh khoa hc x hi c th c gng tm s tht; nhng, ng thi, ng ta
lun tc ng mt nh hng xc nh ln x hi. Chnh s thc, l cc tuyn b ca ng
ta c nh hng, ph hu tnh khch quan ca chng.
Cho n y chng ta gi thit rng nh khoa hc x hi thc s c gng tm s
tht, v khng g khc ngoi s tht; nhng nh lch s ch ngha s ch ra rng tnh trng
c m t lm l ra nhng kh khn ca gi thit ca chng ta. V ni s thin v v
cc li ch c nh hng nh vy ln ni dung ca cc l thuyt v tin on khoa hc,
phi rt ng ng liu thin kin c th c xc nh v trnh hay khng. Nh th chng
cn ngc nhin thy rng trong cc khoa hc x hi c rt t ci ging s tm kim
khch quan v l tng i vi s tht m chng ta thy trong vt l hc. Chc c th thy
by nhiu khuynh hng trong khoa hc x hi nh c th thy bao nhiu trong i sng
x hi; c by nhiu lp trng nh c bao nhiu li ch. C th hi liu l l lch s ch
ngha ny khng dn n mt dng cc oan ca ch ngha tng i, cho rng tnh
khch quan, v l tng v s tht, hon ton khng th p dng c trong cc khoa hc
x hi ni ch thnh cng thnh cng chnh tr- l quyt nh.
minh ho cc l l ny nh lch s ch ngha c th ch ra rng mi khi c mt xu
hng c hu no trong mt giai on pht trin x hi, chng ta c th trng ch
thy cc l thuyt x hi hc nh hng n s pht trin ny. Khoa hc x hi nh th c
th hot ng nh mt b , gip sinh ra cc giai on x hi mi; nhng n cng c th
c dng ngang th, trong tay cc th lc bo th, lm chm tr nhng thay i x
hi sp xy ra.
Cch nhn nh vy c th gi kh nng phn tch v gii thch s khc nhau gia cc
hc thuyt v trng phi x hi hc khc nhau, bng cch dn chiu hoc n quan h
ca chng vi nhng thin v v li ch thnh hnh trong mt giai on lch s c bit
(mt cch tip cn i khi c gi l thuyt lch s-historism, v khng nn ln ln
vi ci ti gi l ch ngha lch s-historicism), hoc n mi lin h ca chng vi cc
li ch chnh tr hay kinh t hay giai cp (mt cch tip cn i khi c gi l x hi
hc tri thc).

21

7 CHNH TH
LUN (HOLISM)
Hu ht cc nh lch s ch ngha tin rng cn c mt l do su hn na v sao cc
phng php khoa hc vt l khng th p dng c cho cc khoa hc x hi. H l l
rng x hi hc, ging mi khoa hc sinh hc, tc l cc khoa hc cp n cc i
tng sng, khng c tin hnh theo cch ch nh, m phi theo cch by gi c gi
l chnh th - holistic. V cc i tng ca x hi hc, cc nhm x hi, khng bao gi
c coi n thun l tng s cc c nhn. Nhm x hi l nhiu hn tng n thun ca
cc thnh vin ca n, v n cng nhiu hn tng n thun ca cc quan h c nhn
thun tu tn ti bt k thi im no gia bt k thnh vin no ca n. iu ny c
th thy d dng ngay c trong mt nhm n gin gm ba thnh vin. Mt nhm do A
v B lp ra s khc v c tnh vi mt nhm c cng s thnh vin nhng do B v C lp
ra. iu ny c th minh ho vic ni rng mt nhm c lch s ring ca n c ngha l
g, v rng cu trc ca n ph thuc rt ln vo lch s ca n (xem c mc 3 trn v
Tnh mi). Mt nhm c th d gi nguyn vn c tnh ca n nu n mt mt vi
thnh vin t quan trng. V thm ch c th tng tng c l mt nhm c th gi
phn ln c tnh ban u ca n cho d ton b thnh vin ban u ca n c thay th
bng cc thnh vin khc. Nhng cng cc thnh vin , nhng ngi hin thi to
thnh nhm, c l c th to thnh mt nhm rt khc, nu h khng tham gia vo
nhm ban u tng ngi mt, m thay vo lp ra mt nhm mi. Tnh cch ca cc
thnh vin c th c nh hng ln ln lch s v cu trc ca nhm, song s thc ny
khng ngn cn nhm khi c mt lch s v cu trc ca ring mnh; n cng chng
ngn nhm khi c nh hng mnh n tnh cch ca cc thnh vin.
Mi nhm x hi u c cc truyn thng ring, nh ch ring, nghi l ring ca mnh.
Ch ngha lch s cho rng chng ta phi nghin cu lch s ca nhm, cc truyn thng
v nh ch ca n, nu chng ta mun hiu v gii thch n nh n l hin nay, v nu
chng ta mun hiu v c l nhn thy trc s pht trin tng lai ca n.
c tnh chnh th ca cc nhm x hi, s thc l cc nhm nh vy chng bao gi
c gii thch hon ton nh tng s n thun ca cc thnh vin ca chng, ri nh
sng ln s phn bit ca nh lch s ch ngha gia tnh mi trong vt l hc, ci thun
tu dnh n cc t hp hay sp xp mi ca cc nguyn t v nhn t khng mi, v tnh
mi trong i sng x hi, ci l thc s v khng th qui gin cho tnh mi n thun v
sp xp. Bi v nu cc cu trc x hi ni chung khng th c gii thch nh cc t
hp ca cc phn hay cc thnh vin ca chng, th r rng phi l khng th gii
thch cc cu trc x hi mi bng phng php ny.
22

Mt khc, cc cu trc vt l c th c gii thch n thun nh cc hnh trngconstellation, cc nh lch s ch ngha khng khng, hoc nh tng n thun ca cc
thnh phn ca chng, cng vi cu hnh hnh hc ca chng. Th d, xt h mt tri;
mc d c th l th i nghin cu lch s ca n, v du cho vic nghin cu ny c th
soi sng hin trng ca n, chng ta bit rng, theo mt ngha no , trng thi ny c
lp vi lch s ca h thng. Cu trc ca h thng, chuyn ng v din tin tng lai
ca n, hon ton c xc nh bi hnh trng hin ti ca cc thnh vin ca n. Cn c
vo v tr tng i, khi lng, v moment ca cc thnh vin ca n bt k thi im
no, chuyn ng tng lai ca h thng l hon ton xc nh. Chng ta chng cn thm
tri thc nh hnh tinh no gi hn, hoc hnh tinh no c a ti t bn ngoi: lch s
ca cu trc, mc d c th l th, chng to thnh ci g cho s hiu bit ca chng ta v
hnh vi ca n, v c ch ca n, v v din tin tng lai ca n. Hin nhin l mt cu
trc vt l khc xa bt k cu trc x hi no kha cnh ny; ci sau khng th c
hiu, cng chng th tin on tng lai ca n, m khng nghin cu cn thn lch s
ca n, cho d chng ta c y tri thc v hnh trng nht thi ca n.
Nhng cn nhc nh vy gi mnh m rng c mt mi lin h mt thit gia ch
ngha lch s v ci gi l l thuyt sinh hc hay hu c ca cc cu trc x hi- l thuyt
l gii cc nhm x hi bng s tng t vi cc c th sng. Tht vy, chnh th lun
c cho l mang c trng ca cc hin tng sinh hc ni chung, v cch tip cn
chnh th c coi l khng th thiu c trong xem xt lch s ca cc sinh vt nh
hng ra sao n hnh vi ca chng. Cc l l chnh th ca ch ngha lch s nh th
thch hp nhn mnh s ging nhau gia cc nhm x hi v cc sinh vt, mc d
chng khng nht thit dn n s chp nhn l thuyt sinh hc ca cc cu trc x hi.
Tng t, l thuyt ni ting v s tn ti ca tinh thn nhm, nh vt mang cc truyn
thng nhm, mc d bn thn n khng nht thit l mt phn ca l l chnh th, n lin
quan mt thit vi quan im chnh th.

23

8 S HIU BIT
TRC GIC
Cho n nay chng ta ch yu cp n cc kha cnh c trng no ca cuc sng
x hi, nh tnh mi, tnh phc tp, tnh hu c, tnh chnh th, v cch m lch s ca n
chia thnh cc giai on; cc kha cnh m, theo ch ngha lch s, lm cho cc phng
php in hnh no ca vt l hc khng th p dng c cho khoa hc x hi. Mt
phng php tip cn lch s hn v vy c coi l cn thit trong nghin cu x hi. N
l mt phn ca quan im phn t nhin ca ch ngha lch s m chng ta phi c hiu
lch s ca cc nhm x hi khc nhau mt cch trc gic, v quan im ny i khi
c pht trin thnh hc thuyt phng php lun rt gn gi vi ch ngha lch s, mc
d khng kt hp vi n mt cch bt bin.
l hc thuyt rng phng php ring ca khoa hc x hi, ngc li vi phng
php ca khoa hc t nhin, da vo s hiu bit bn cht cc hin tng x hi. Nhng
s i lp v tri ngc sau thng c nhn mnh lin quan n hc thuyt ny. Vt l
hc hng ti s gii thch nhn qu: x hi hc nhm ti s hiu bit mc ch v
ngha. Trong vt l hc cc s kin c gii thch mt cch nghim ngt v nh lng,
vi s gip ca cc cng thc ton hc. X hi hc c hiu din tin lch s dng
nh tnh hn, th d, dng cc xu hng v mc tiu xung t nhau, hoc bng tnh
cch dn tc hay tinh thn thi i. y l v sao vt l hc hot ng vi khi qut ho
qui np cn x hi hc ch c th hot ng vi s gip ca s tng tng giao cm.
V cng l l do v sao vt l hc c th dn n nhng ng u c hiu lc ph qut,
cn x hi hc phi tho mn vi s hiu bit trc gic cc s kin n nht, v vai tr
m chng ng trong cc tnh hung c bit, xy ra trong khun kh cc cuc tranh u
ring ca cc li ch, cc xu hng, v cc s phn.
Ti kin ngh phn bit gia ba bin th khc nhau ca hc thuyt v hiu bit trc
gic. Bin th th nht khng nh rng mt s kin x hi c hiu khi c phn tch
bng cc lc lng gy ra n, tc l khi bit cc c nhn v nhm dnh lu, cc mc ch
v li ch ca h, v quyn lc m h c th s dng. Cc hnh ng ca cc c nhn
hoc nhm y c hiu nh ph hp vi mc ch ca h - nh thc y li th thc
t ca h hoc, ch t, li th tng tng ca h. Phng php x hi hc y c
ngh nh mt s ti to mang tnh tng tng ca cc hot ng hoc duy l hoc phi l,
hng ti cc mc ch nht nh.
Bin th th hai i xa hn. N tha nhn rng mt phn tch nh vy l cn thit, c
bit lin quan n s hiu bit cc hot ng c nhn hay cc hnh ng nhm. Nhng n
cho rng cn nhiu hn hiu i sng x hi. Nu chng ta mun hiu ngha ca mt
s kin x hi, th d mt hnh ng chnh tr no , th khng hiu, theo mc
ch lun, n c dn n th no v v sao. Ngoi ra, chng ta phi hiu ngha ca
n, tm quan trng ca s xut hin ca n. y ngha v tm quan trng c
ngha g? Nhn t quan im ti m t nh bin th th hai, cu tr li s l: mt s kin
24

x hi khng ch c nhng nh hng no , n khng ch dn, theo thi gian, n cc

s kin khc, m chnh s tn ti ca n lm thay i gi tr tnh th ca mt di rng cc
s kin khc. N to ra mt tnh hung mi, i hi mt s ti-nh hng v ti-din
gii mi i tng v mi hot ng trong lnh vc c bit . hiu mt s kin nh
vy, th d, vic to ra mt qun i mi mt nc no , cn phi phn tch cc
nh, li ch, v v.v. Nhng chng ta khng th hiu y ngha hoc tm quan trng
ca hnh ng ny m khng phn tch c gi tr tnh th ca n; th d, cc lc lng
qun s ca nc khc, hon ton cho vic bo v n cho ti thi im , by gi
c th tr nn hon ton khng tho ng. Tm li, ton b tnh th x hi c th thay
i, ngay c trc bt k nhng thay i thc s thm no xy ra, c v mt vt cht
hay tm l; v tnh th c th thay i t lu trc khi bt k ai nhn ra s thay i.
Nh vy hiu i sng x hi, chng ta phi i qu phn tch thun tu v cc nguyn
nhn v kt qu thc s, tc l phn tch v cc ng c, li ch, v phn ng do cc hnh
ng gy ra: chng ta phi hiu mi s kin nh biu din mt phn c trng no
trong ci ton th. S kin c c tm quan trng ca n t nh hng m n c trn ci
ton th, v tm quan trng ca n mt phn c xc nh bi ci ton th.
Bin th th ba ca hc thuyt hiu bit trc gic cn i xa hn na, trong khi chp
nhn mi th ca bin th th nht v th hai. N cho rng hiu ngha hay tm quan
trng ca mt s kin x hi, cn nhiu hn s phn tch v cn nguyn, kt qu, v gi
tr tnh th ca n. Ngoi mt nghin cu nh vy ra, cn phi phn tch cc xu hng v
xu th lch s c s, khch quan (nh s pht trin hay suy thoi ca cc truyn thng
hay th lc no ) thnh hnh ti giai on ang bn, v phn tch s ng gp ca s
kin i vi qu trnh lch s theo cc xu th nh vy bc l. Mt s hiu bit y
v V Dreyfus*, th d, ngoi mt phn tch v cn nguyn, kt qu, v gi tr tnh th
ca n ra cn cn n s thu hiu s thc rng n biu hin s tranh ginh gia hai xu
hng lch s trong s pht trin ca Cng ho Php, dn ch v chuyn quyn, tin b
v phn ng.
Bin th th ba ny ca phng php hiu bit trc gic, vi nhn mnh n cc xu
hng hay khuynh hng, l mt lp trng gi mc no n vic p dng suy
din bng tng t t mt giai on lch s sang giai on khc. V mc d n hon ton
cng nhn rng cc giai on lch s l khc nhau v bn cht, v rng khng s kin no
c th thc s t lp li trong mt giai on khc ca tin trin x hi, n c th tha
nhn rng cc xu hng tng t c th tr nn chi phi trong cc giai on khc nhau,
cc giai on, c l, rt xa nhau. Nhng s ging nhau hay tng t nh vy c cho l
c, th d, gia Hi Lp trc Alexander v Nam c trc Bismarck. Phng php
hiu bit trc gic, trong cc trng hp nh vy, gi rng chng ta phi nh gi
ngha ca cc s kin no bng so snh chng vi cc s kin tng t trong cc giai
on trc, sao cho gip chng ta tin on nhng tin trin mi khng bao gi
qun, tuy vy, rng nhng khc bit khng th trnh khi gia hai giai on phi c
tnh n mt cch thch ng.
Do , chng ta thy rng mt phng php c kh nng hiu ngha ca cc s kin
x hi phi i kh xa s gii thch nhn qu. N phi mang tnh chnh th; n phi hng
ti s xc nh vai tr do s kin y ng trong phm vi mt cu trc phc tp- trong ci
ton th bao hm khng ch cc thnh phn ng thi m c cc giai on k tip nhau
*

Afred Dreyfus mt s quan qun i Php, ngi Do thi b kt n lm gin ip cho c cui th k th
mi chn. Nh vn mil Zola t co vic to dng v ny.

25

ca din tin thi gian. iu ny c th gii thch v sao bin th th ba ca phng php
hiu bit trc gic hay da vo s tng t gia mt sinh vt v mt nhm, v v sao n
hay hot ng vi cc tng nh tng v mt tm tr hay tinh thn ca mt thi i,
ngun v gim th ca tt c cc xu hng hay khuynh hng lch s , nhng ci ng
mt vai tr quan trng trong xc nh ngha ca cc s kin x hi.
Nhng phng php hiu bit trc gic khng ch hp vi cc tng ca chnh th
lun. N cng rt ph hp vi nhn mnh ca nh lch s ch ngha v tnh mi; v tnh
mi khng th c gii thch mt cch nhn qu hay duy l, m ch c th lnh hi c
mt cch trc gic. S thy, hn th na, trong tho lun v cc hc thuyt theo t nhin
ca ch ngha lch s, rng c mi quan h rt mt thit gia chng v bin th th ba
ca chng ta v phng php hiu bit trc gic, vi s nhn mnh ca n ln cc xu
hng hay khuynh hng lch s. (Xem, th d, mc 16).

9 CC PHNG
PHP NH
LNG
Gia nhng i lp v tri ngc thng c nhn mnh lin quan n hc thuyt hiu
bit trc gic cc nh lch s ch ngha thng nhn mnh im sau. Trong vt l hc, h
ni, cc s kin c gii thch nghim ngt v chnh xc, dng nh lng, vi s gip
ca cc cng thc ton hc. X hi hc, mt khc, c gng hiu s tin trin lch s
dng nh tnh hn; th d, dng cc xu hng v mc ch xung khc nhau.
L l chng li tnh c th dng cc phng php nh lng v ton hc hon ton
khng l k i vi cc nh lch s ch ngha; v, thc vy, cc phng php nh vy i
khi b ngay c cc tc gi, vi cc quan im chng lch s ch ngha mnh m, bc b.
Nhng mt s l l c sc thuyt phc nht chng li cc phng php nh lng v
ton hc lm ni bt rt r quan im m ti gi l ch ngha lch s, v cc l l ny s
c tho lun y.
Khi chng ta xem xt s phn i s dng cc phng php nh lng v ton hc
trong x hi hc, mt s phn i mnh m phi hin ngay ra vi chng ta: thi ny c
v nh mu thun vi s thc l cc phng php nh lng v ton hc thc s c
dng rt thnh cng trong mt s khoa hc x hi. i din vi iu ny, lm sao c th
t chi rng chng c th p dng c?
Chng li s phn i ny, s i lp vi quan im nh lng v ton hc c th
c gi vng bi mt s l l c trng cho cch t duy chnh th.

26

Ti hon ton ng vi cc nhn xt ca bn, nh lch s ch ngha c th ni; song

vn cn mt s khc bit to ln gia cc phng php thng k ca cc khoa hc x hi
v cc phng php nh lng ton hc ca vt l hc. Cc khoa hc x hi chng bit
ci g c th so vi cc nh lut nhn qu ca vt l hc c trnh by bng ton hc.
Xt, th d, nh lut vt l rng (vi nh sng c bt k bc sng no) m (
rng ca khe h), qua mt tia sng xuyn qua, cng nh th gc khc x cng ln. Mt
qui lut vt l loi ny c dng: Di cc diu kin nht nh, nu ln A bin i theo
mt cch no , th ln B cng thay i theo mt cch c th d on c no .
Ni cch khc, mt qui lut nh vy by t s ph thuc ca mt i lng c th o
c vo mt i lng khc v cch theo mt i lng ph thuc vo i lng
khc c trnh by dng nh lng chnh xc. Vt l hc thnh cng trong biu
din mi nh lut ca n dng ny. t iu ny, nhim v u tin ca n l bin
tt c cc tnh cht vt l thnh cc khi nim nh lng. Th d, n thay th m t
nh tnh ca mt loi nh sng no th d, nh sng xanh vng chi - bng mt m
t nh lng: nh sng c bc sng no v cng no . Mt qu trnh m t
nh lng cc i lng vt l hin nhin l iu kin tin quyt cn thit cho vic trnh
by cc qui lut vt l nhn qu mt cch nh lng. Nhng iu ny cho php chng ta
gii thch v sao ci g xy ra; th d, di gi thit ca nh lut lin quan n
rng ca khe h v gc khc x, chng ta c th a ra mt gii thch nhn qu ca vic
tng gc khc x bng s thc l m gim.
Gii thch nhn qu, nh lch s ch ngha kin nh, cng phi c th vi cc khoa
hc x hi. H c th, th d, nhn gii thch ch ngha quc bng s bnh trng
cng nghip. Nhng nu xem xt th d ny chng ta thy ngay rng v vng i th biu
din cc qui lut x hi hc bng cc khi nim nh lng. V nu xem xt cch pht
biu no nh th, nh xu hng bnh trng lnh th tng ln vi cng cng
nghip ho (mt cch trnh by ch t l d hiu, mc d c l khng phi l mt m t
ng ca s thc) chng ta s mau chng thy rng chng ta khng c bt k phng
php no, phng php c th o xu hng bnh trng, hoc cng cng nghip
ho.
Tng kt li l l lch s ch ngha chng li cc phng php nh lng-ton hc,
l nhim v ca nh x hi hc a ra gii thch nhn qu ca nhng thay i tri
qua, trong tin trnh lch s, bng cc i lng x hi, th d, nh cc quc gia, cc h
thng kinh t, hay cc hnh thc chnh ph. V khng c cch no biu din cht lng
ca cc i lng ny bng cc khi nim nh lng, khng nh lut nh lng no c
th c trnh by. Nh th, cc qui lut nhn qu ca cc khoa hc x hi, nu gi nh
l c, th phi khc xa v mt c tnh vi cc nh lut vt l, v mang tnh nh tnh hn
l nh lng v ton hc. Nu cc qui lut x hi xc nh mc ca bt k th g, th
chng s ch lm vy bng nhng khi nim rt m h, v s cho php, nhiu nht, mt
thang rt th.
Dng nh cht lng- bt lun vt l hay phi vt l- ch c th c nh gi bng
trc gic. Cc l l m chng ta tho lun y v th c th dng h tr cc l l c
a ra ng h phng php hiu bit trc gic.

27

10 BN CHT
LUN(ESSENTIALISM)
I LI
THUYT DUY DANH
(NOMINALISM)
S nhn mnh tnh cht nh tnh ca cc s kin x hi dn thm n vn a v ca
cc khi nim biu th cht lng: n ci gi l vn v ci chung (problem of
universals), mt trong nhng vn c nht v cn bn nht ca trit hc.
Vn ny, m v n mt cuc chin ln din ra c lit sut Thi Trung c, c gc
r trong trit hc ca Plato v Aristotle. N thng c din gii nh mt vn thun
tu siu hnh; nhng ging nh hu ht cc vn siu hnh n c th c trnh by li
tr thnh mt vn v phng php khoa hc. Chng ta s ch cp n vn
phng php lun y, a ra mt phc tho ngn gn v vn siu hnh qua mt
on dn nhp.
Mi khoa hc u dng cc thut ng gi l cc thut ng chung (khi nim chung),
nh nng lng, tc , cc bon, trng, tin ho, cng l, quc gia, nhn
loi. Cc thut ng ny khc bit vi loi t m chng ta gi l cc t c nht hay cc
khi nim ring nh Alexander i , Sao chi Halley, Chin tranh Th gii ln
Th nht. Nhng thut ng nh th ny l cc tn ring, cc nhn gn cho cc s vt
ring bit c biu th bi chng theo qui c.
V bn cht ca cc t chung c s bn ci lu i v i khi n ra d di gia hai
phe. Mt phe cho rng cc t chung, khc cc tn ring ch do c gn vi cc thnh
vin ca mt tp (hp) hay mt lp ca cc th n l, hn l gn vi ch mt th n l.
Th d, t chung trng i vi phe ny chng l g khc m l mt ci nhn gn cho mt
tp hp ca nhiu th khc nhau th d nh bng tuyt, khn tri bn, v thin nga. y
l hc thuyt ca phe duy danh (nominalist). i lp vi n l mt hc thuyt theo truyn
thng c gi l thuyt duy thc (realism) - mt ci tn hi gy nhm ln, v l thuyt
duy thc ny cng c gi l duy tm. V vy ti kin ngh i li tn l thuyt
phn t nhin ny thnh bn cht lun (essentialism). Cc nh bn cht lun ph nhn
rng u tin chng ta gom mt nhm cc th ring bit li v gn nhn trng cho
chng; ng hn, h ni, chng ta gi mi th n l l trng v mt tnh cht ni ti
no m n chia s vi cc th trng khc, c th l mu trng. Tnh cht ny, biu
hin bng t chung, c coi nh mt i tng ng c nghin cu ht nh bn thn
cc s vt ring l. (Tn duy thc lun xut x t khng nh l cc i tng chung,
th d, sc trng, thc s tn ti, ngoi cc s vt ring l v cc tp hay nhm ca cc
28

s vt ring l). Nh th cc t chung c cho l biu th cc i tng chung, ht

nh cc t ring biu th cc th ring l. Cc i tng chung ny (Plato gi l Hnh
thc hay L tng) c ch r bng cc t chung cng c gi l bn cht.
Song duy thc lun khng ch tin vo s tn ti ca cc th chung (cc i tng
chung), n cng nhn mnh tm quan trng ca chng vi khoa hc. N ch ra, cc i
tng ring by t nhiu c tnh ph, cc c tnh khng quan trng g cho khoa hc.
ly mt th d t cc khoa hc x hi: kinh t hc quan tm n tin v tn dng, song n
khng n hnh th c bit ca cc ng tin, giy bc hay sc. Khoa hc phi lt i
ci ph v thu hiu ci bn cht ca cc s vt. Nhng bn cht ca bt k th g lun
lun l ci g chung.
Nhng nhn xt cui ny biu th mt s h lu phng php lun ca vn siu hnh
ny. Tuy vy, vn phng php lun m ti sp tho lun thc ra c th c xem xt
c lp vi vn siu hnh. Chng ta s tip cn n theo con ng khc- mt cch
trnh vn v s tn ti ca cc i tng chung v ring, v v s khc bit ca chng.
Chng ta s ch tho lun cc mc ch v phng tin ca khoa hc.
Trng phi ca cc nh t tng m ti kin ngh gi l cc nh bn cht lun
phng php c sng lp bi Aristotle, ngi ch trng l nghin cu khoa hc phi
i su vo bn cht ca cc s vt nhm gii thch chng. Cc nh bn cht lun phng
php c thin hng trnh by cc vn khoa hc di dng nh vt cht l g? hay
lc l g? hay cng bng l g? v h tin rng mt cu tr li thu o cho cc cu hi
nh vy, bc l ngha thc s hay bn cht ca cc khi nim ny v v vy bc l bn
tnh thc hay ng ca cc bn cht biu hin bi chng, t nht l iu kin tin quyt,
nu khng phi l nhim v ch yu, ca nghin cu khoa hc. Cc nh duy danh lun
phng php, tng phn vi iu ny, s t cc vn ca h di dng nh ming
vt cht ny ng x ra sao? hay n chuyn ng th no trong s hin din ca cc vt
th khc? V cc nh duy danh lun phng php cho rng nhim v ca khoa hc ch l
m t cc s vt ng x ra sao, v gi rng iu ny phi c tin hnh mt cch t
do bng cch a ra cc thut ng mi ni cn thit, hoc bng nh ngha li cc thut
ng c ni thy thun li trong khi vui v b qua ngha ban u ca chng. V h coi
cc t ch l cc cng c hu ch m t.
Hu ht mi ngi u tha nhn rng tuyt duy danh phng php lun chin
thng trong cc khoa hc t nhin. Vt l hc, th d, khng thm tra bn cht ca nguyn
t hay nh sng, m n dng cc thut ng ny vi t do cao gii thch v m t
cc quan st vt l no , v cng nh tn ca cc cu trc vt l quan trng v phc tp
no . Vi sinh hc cng vy. Cc nh trit hc c th i hi t cc nh sinh hc li
gii ca cc vn nh cuc sng l g? hay tin ho l g? v i khi mt s nh sinh
hc c th cm thy c thch tho mn cc i hi nh vy. Tuy nhin, khoa hc sinh
hc gii quyt tng qut cc vn khc, v chp nhn cc phng php gii thch v m
t rt ging cc phng php dng trong vt l hc.
Nh th trong cc khoa hc x hi chng ta trng i cc nh phng php theo t
nhin ng h thuyt duy danh, cn cc nh phng php phn t nhin ng h bn cht
lun. Th m thc ra bn cht lun dng nh thng th y; v n thm ch khng i
mt vi bt k s phn i rt mnh lit no. Cho nn c gi rng trong khi cc
phng php ca khoa hc t nhin cn bn l duy danh, khoa hc x hi phi theo

29

phng php bn cht lun.2 Ngi ta l l rng nhim v ca khoa hc x hi l hiu v

gii thch cc thc th x hi hc nh nh nc, hot ng kinh t, nhm x hi, v.v., v
rng iu ny ch c th c tin hnh bng thu hiu bn cht ca chng. Mi thc th
x hi hc quan trng gi nh trc cc thut ng chung cho s m t n v s v ngha
i a ra cc thut ng mi mt cch t do, nh c lm rt thnh cng trong cc khoa
hc t nhin. Nhim v ca khoa hc x hi l m t cc thc th nh vy mt cch r
rng v ng n, tc l, phn bit ci bn cht khi ci tnh c, ci ph; nhng iu
ny i hi tri thc v bn cht ca chng. Cc vn nh Nh nc l g?; v cng
dn l g? (c Aristotle coi l cc vn c bn ca cun Politics [Chnh tr hc] ca
ng), hoc tn dng l g? hay s khc bit cn bn gia linh mc v ngi theo mn
phi (hay nh th v mn phi) l g? khng ch l hon ton chnh ng, m chnh xc
l loi vn m cc l thuyt x hi hc c thit k tr li.
Mc d cc nh lch s ch ngha c th khc nhau v thi ca h i vi vn
siu hnh, v v kin ca h lin quan n phng php lun ca khoa hc t nhin, r
rng l h s c thin hng ng v pha bn cht lun v chng thuyt duy danh trong
chng mc lin quan n phng php lun ca khoa hc x hi. Thc vy, gn nh mi
nh lch s ch ngha m ti bit u c thi ny. Nhng ng xem xt liu c phi ch
xu hng phn t nhin ca ch ngha lch s gii thch cho iu ny, hay liu c bt k
l l lch s ch ngha c th no c th thc gic ng h bn cht lun phng php hay
khng.
u tin r rng l l l chng li vic dng cc phng php nh lng trong khoa
hc x hi c lin quan n vn ny. S nhn mnh n tnh cht nh tnh ca cc s
kin x hi, cng vi nhn mnh n hiu bit trc gic (ngc vi m t thun tu), biu
l mt thi lin quan mt thit vi bn cht lun.
Nhng c cc l l khc, in hnh hn ca ch ngha lch s, theo mt khuynh hng
t tng m by gi l quen thuc i vi bn c. (Tnh c, chng hu nh l cng cc
l l, theo Aristotle, dn Plato i pht trin l thuyt u tin v bn cht).
Ch ngha lch s nhn mnh tm quan trng ca thay i. By gi trong mi s thay
i, nh lch s ch ngha c th l l, phi c ci g thay i. Cho d chng c g l
khng thay i, chng ta phi c kh nng nhn din ra ci thay i c th ni v
s thay i ni chung. iu ny l tng i d trong vt l hc. Trong c hc, th d,
mi s thay i u l chuyn ng, tc l nhng thay i v khng-thi gian, ca cc
vt th vt l. Nhng x hi hc, ch yu quan tm n cc nh ch x hi, i mt vi
nhng kh khn ln hn, v cc nh ch nh vy l khng d nhn din sau khi chng
tri qua s thay i. Theo ngha m t n thun khng c kh nng coi mt nh ch
x hi trc mt s thay i l cng nh nh ch sau s thay i; n c th, t quan
im m t, l hon ton khc nhau. Mt m t theo t nhin ca cc nh ch chnh ph
ng thi Vng quc Anh, th d, c th phi trnh by chng hon ton khc ci m
chng l bn th k trc. Th m chng ta c th ni, trong chng mc c mt chnh
ph, n v bn cht l nh nhau, cho d n c th thay i mt cch ng k. Chc
nng ca n trong x hi hin i v bn cht tng t nh chc nng n tho mn khi
. Mc d hu nh chng c c tnh ng mun no cn nh c, nt ring bit bn cht
ca nh ch c duy tr, cho php chng ta coi mt nh ch nh mt dng c thay
i ca ci kia: chng ta khng th ni, trong cc khoa hc x hi, v nhng thay i hay
2

Xem mc vi ca chng 3 ca cun Open Society and Its Enemies ca ti, c bit ch thch 30, v mc ii
ca chng 11.

30

tin trin m khng gi nh trc mt bn cht khng thay i, v v th m khng tin

hnh ph hp vi bn cht lun phng php.
Tt nhin, r rng l mt s thut ng x hi hc, nh suy thoi, lm pht, thiu pht,
v.v., ban u c a ra theo phong cch duy danh thun tu. Nhng d c ng nh
th chng khng gi li c tnh duy danh ca chng. Khi iu kin thay i, chng ta
mau chng thy cc nh khoa hc x hi khng ng v liu cc hin tng no tht
s l lm pht hay khng; nh th v s chnh xc c th tr nn cn thit iu tra
nghin cu bn tnh cn bn (hay ngha thc cht) ca lm pht.
V th c th ni v bt k thc th x hi no rng n c th, trong chng mc lin
quan n bn cht ca n, c mt bt k ch no khc v di bt k hnh thc no
khc, v c th cng nh th thay i trong khi vn thc ra khng thay i, hoc thay i
khc hn cch m n th s thay i (Husserl). Mc ca nhng thay i kh d
khng th b hn ch a priori (mt cch tin nghim). L khng th ni loi thay i
no mt thc th x hi c th cng li v vn cn nh nhau. Cc hin tng m theo
cc lp trng no y c th khc nhau mt cch bn cht, li c th v bn cht nh
nhau theo cc lp trng khc.
T cc l l lch s ch ngha c pht trin trn, suy ra rng mt s m t trn tri
cc din tin x hi l khng th; hay ng hn, rng mt m t x hi hc chng bao gi
c th n thun l mt m t theo ngha duy danh. V nu m t x hi hc khng th
khng cn n bn cht, mt l thuyt v pht trin x hi s thm ch t c kh nng nh
vy hn. V ai dm t chi, rng cc vn nh xc nh v gii thch cc nt c trng
ca mt giai on x hi no , cng vi nhng cng thng v xu hng ni ti v
khuynh hng ca n, chc hn thch mi n lc p dng cc phng php duy
danh?
Bn cht lun v phng php do c th da vo l l lch s ch ngha, m thc t
dn Plato n bn cht lun siu hnh ca ng, l l ca Heraclite rng, nhng th thay
i thch m t duy l. Cho nn khoa hc hay tri thc gi thit trc mt ci g
khng thay i m vn y ht nh bn thn n - mt bn cht. Lch s, tc l m t s thay
i, v bn cht, tc l ci vn khng thay i trong lc s thay i din ra, hin ra y
nh cc khi nim tng quan. Nhng tng quan ny cn c mt khc ca n: theo mt
ngha no , bn cht cng gi thit trc s thay i, v do gi thit trc lch s.
V nu nguyn l v mt th vn cn y nguyn hay khng thay i khi s vt thay i
l bn cht (hay t tng, hay hnh thc, hay bn tnh, hay thc cht) ca n, th nhng
thay i m s vt tri qua lm sng t cc mt hay cc kha cnh hay cc kh nng khc
nhau ca s vt v v vy ca bn cht ca n. Bn cht, v vy, c th c din gii nh
tng hay ngun ca cc kh nng vn c trong s vt, v nhng s thay i (hay chuyn
ng) c th c din gii nh s thc hin hay s hin thc ho cc kh nng tim n
ca bn cht ca n. (L thuyt ny c xut x t Aristotle). Suy ra rng mt s vt, tc l
bn cht khng thay i ca n, c th c bit n ch thng qua nhng thay i ca
n. Nu, th d, chng ta mun khm ph ra liu mt vt no c phi c lm bng
vng hay khng, chng ta phi p n, hoc xt nghim n v mt ho hc, nh th lm
thay i n v bng cch y l ra mt s kh nng tim n ca n. Theo cng cch,
bn cht ca mt ngi nhn cch ca anh ta- ch c th c bit khi n t bc l ra
trong tiu s ca anh ta. p dng nguyn l ny vo x hi hc dn chng ta n kt lun
rng bn cht hay c tnh tht ca mt nhm x hi c th t tit l, v c bit n,
ch thng qua lch s ca n. Nhng nu cc nhm x hi c th c bit ch qua lch s
31

ca chng, th cc khi nim dng m t chng phi l cc khi nim lch s; v thc
vy, cc khi nim nh nh nc Nht Bn hay dn tc hay dng ging Aryan hu nh
khng th din gii nh bt k th g khc m ch nh cc khi nim da vo nghin cu
lch s. Cng ng vy vi cc giai cp x hi: giai cp t sn, th d, ch c th c
nh ngha bng lch s ca n: nh giai cp ln nm quyn thng qua cch mng cng
nghip, y cc a ch ra bn l, chin u vi v b nh bi bi giai cp v sn, v. v.
Bn cht lun c th c a vo vi l do rng n cho php chng ta pht hin ra
mt s ng nht trong cc s vt thay i, nhng n lt n, n cung cp mt s l l
hng mnh nht ng h hc thuyt rng cc khoa hc x hi phi chp nhn phng
php lch s; tc l, ng h hc thuyt ca ch ngha lch s.

32

II
__________________________

CC THUYT THEO-T NHIN

CA CH NGHA LCH S

Mc d ch ngha lch s v cn bn l phn t nhin, n chng h phn i tng rng

c mt yu t chung trong cc phng php ca cc khoa hc vt l v x hi. iu ny
c th l do s thc rng cc nh lch s ch ngha chp nhn, nh mt qui tc, quan
im (m ti hon ton chia s) rng x hi hc, ging vt l hc, l mt nhnh tri thc
hng ti, ng thi, l l thuyt v thc nghim.
Bng cch ni rng n l mt mn l thuyt chng ta mun ni rng x hi hc phi
gii thch v tin on cc s kin, vi s gip ca cc l thuyt hay ca cc nh lut
chung (m n c gng khm ph ra). Bng cch m t x hi hc nh mn thc nghim,
chng ta mun ni rng n c kinh nghim ng h, rng cc s kin m n gii thch
v tin on l cc s thc c th quan st c, v rng s quan st l c s cho vic
chp nhn hay bc b bt k l thuyt c xut no. Khi chng ta ni v thnh cng
trong vt l hc chng ta ghi nh n thnh cng ca cc tin on ca n: v thnh cng
ca cc tin on ca n c th din t l ht nh chng thc thc nghim ca cc nh
lut vt l hc. Khi chng ta i snh thnh cng tng i ca x hi hc vi thnh cng
ca vt l hc, th chng ta gi thit rng thnh cng trong x hi hc s cng nh vy ct
, v c bn, s cng c ca cc tin on. Suy ra rng cc phng php no tin
on vi s gip ca cc nh lut, v kim nghim cc nh lut bng quan st - phi
l chung cho vt l hc v x hi hc.
Ti hon ton ng vi quan im ny, bt chp s thc l ti coi n l mt trong
cc gi thit c bn ca ch ngha lch s. Song ti khng ng vi s pht trin chi tit
hn ca quan im ny ci dn n mt lot tng m ti s m t phn tip. Thot
nhn cc tng ny c th dng nh l cc h qu kh d hiu ca quan im chung
va c phc ho. Nhng thc ra, chng dnh n cc gi thit khc, c th l, cc hc
thuyt phn t nhin ca ch ngha lch s; v c bit hn, hc thuyt v cc qui lut
hay xu hng lch s.

33

11 SO SNH VI THIN
VN HC. D BO
DI HN V D BO
3
TON DIN
Cc nh lch s ch ngha hin i rt b n tng bi thnh cng ca l thuyt
Newton, v c bit bi nng lc d bo v tr ca cc hnh tinh trc mt thi gian di.
Kh nng v d bo di hn nh vy, h cho l, do c xc lp, chng t rng cc
m c lu i v tin tri tng lai xa khng vt qu cc gii hn ca ci c th t
c bi tr c con ngi. Cc khoa hc x hi phi hng ti tm cao ng vy. Nu l
c th i vi thin vn hc tin on thin thc [s che khut nhau ca cc thin
th], v sao li khng c th i vi x hi hc tin on cc cuc cch mng?
Tuy mc d chng ta nn hng cao nh vy, chng ta khng bao gi c qun, nh
lch s ch ngha s nhn mnh, rng cc khoa hc x hi khng th hi vng, v rng
chng khng nn n lc, t s chnh xc ca cc d bo thin vn hc. Mt lch khoa
hc chnh xc v cc s kin x hi, so snh c vi, th d, Nin gim Hng hi, c
chng t ( cc mc 5 v 6) l khng th v mt logic. Cho d cc cuc cch mng c th
c tin on bi cc khoa hc x hi, khng tin on no nh vy c th l chnh xc;
phi c mt bin bt nh v chi tit ca n cng nh v din tin thi gian ca n.
Trong khi tha nhn, v thm ch nhn mnh, cc thiu st ca cc tin on x hi
lin quan n chi tit v chnh xc, cc nh lch s ch ngha cho rng tm v ngha
quan trng ca cc tin on nh vy c th b cho cc thiu st ny. Nhng thiu st
ny sinh ch yu t tnh phc tp ca cc s kin x hi, t s lin kt vi nhau ca
chng, v t c im nh tnh ca cc khi nim x hi hc. Nhng mc d khoa hc
x hi v th b mp m, cc khi nim nh tnh ca n ng thi cho n mt s phong
ph no v tnh cht ton din v ngha. Cc th d ca cc khi nim nh vy l
xung t vn ho, s thnh vng, on kt, th ho, tnh tho dng. Cc tin
on thuc loi c m t, tc l cc tin on di hn m tnh mp m ca chng c
b li bng phm vi v tm quan trng ca chng, ti kin ngh gi l cc tin on trn
qui m ln hay cc tin on ton din. Theo ch ngha lch s, loi tin on ny l
ci x hi hc phi n lc.
Chc hn ng l cc tin on qui m ln nh vy cc tin on di hn vi tm
rng v c th hi m h- c th t c trong mt s khoa hc. Cc th d v tin on
quan trng v kh thnh cng c th thy trong lnh vc thin vn hc. Th d l d on
hot ng ca cc vt mt tri trn c s cc qui lut tun hon (quan trng cho thay i
thi tit) hay s thay i hng ngy hay theo ma v ion ho tng cao kh quyn (quan
3

Hai on vn u ca tit on ny by gi c chn vo th cho mt on vn di hn b b i

nm 1944 v thiu giy.

34

trng cho lin lc v tuyn in). Cc d bo ny ging vi cc tin on thin thc

chng mc chng cp n cc s kin trong tng lai tng i xa, nhng chng khc
d bo thin thc ch thng chng ch mang tnh thng k v trong mi trng hp t
chnh xc hn lin quan n chi tit, thi gian, v cc c im khc. Chng ta thy l
cc d bo ton din c l bn thn chng khng phi thc tin; v nu ni chung cc khoa
hc x hi ch c th t c cc d bo di hn, th kh r l chng ch c th l ci m
chng ta m t nh cc d bo ton din. Mt khc, suy ra t trnh by ca chng ta v
cc thuyt phn t nhin ca ch ngha lch s rng cc d bo ngn hn trong cc khoa
hc x hi rt b bt li. Thiu chnh xc chc hn nh hng ng k n chng, v do
bn tnh ca chng, chng ch c th cp n cc chi tit, cc c im nh hn ca
i sng x hi, v chng b gii hn cc giai on ngn. Nhng mt d bo chi tit m
li khng chnh xc v chi tit th tht chng c ch g. Nh vy, nu chng ta c quan
tm n d bo x hi ni chung, th cc d bo ton din (cng l cc d bo di hn)
cn li, theo ch ngha lch s, khng ch l hp dn nht m thc s l cc d bo duy
nht ng th lm.

12 C S QUAN ST
C s quan st phi th nghim cho mt khoa hc, theo mt ngha no ca t, l lun
mang tnh lch s. L th ngay c vi c s quan st ca thin vn hc. Cc s thc m
thin vn hc da vo c cha trong cc bn ghi chp ca i thin vn; cc bn ghi
thng bo vi chng ta, th d, rng ti mt thi im no (gi, giy) sao Thu c
ng Ny ng N quan st v tr no . Tm li, chng cho chng ta mt s ghi cc s
kin theo th t thi gian, hoc mt ghi chp v nhng quan st.
Tng t, c s quan st ca x hi hc ch c th cho di dng mt ghi chp v cc
s kin, y l cc bin c chnh tr hay x hi. S ghi chp cc bin c chnh tr v bin
c quan trng khc trong i sng x hi l ci ngi ta thng gi l lch s. Lch s
theo ngha hp ny l c s ca x hi hc.
Nc ci i ph nhn tm quan trng ca lch s theo ngha hp ny nh mt c s
kinh nghim cho khoa hc x hi. Nhng mt trong nhng khng nh c trng ca ch
ngha lch s, ci lin kt mt thit vi s ph nhn ca n v tnh c th p dng c
ca phng php th nghim, l lch s chnh tr v x hi, l ngun kinh nghim duy
nht ca x hi hc. Nh th nh lch s ch ngha hnh dung x hi hc nh mt mn l
thuyt v kinh nghim m c s kinh nghim ca n c to ring bi s ghi chp cc
s thc lch s, v mc ch ca n l a ra cc d on, tt nht l cc d bo ton
din. R rng, cc d bo ny cng phi c tnh lch s, v s kim chng chng bng
kinh nghim, s xc minh hay bc b chng, phi c cho lch s tng lai. Nh vy
a ra v kim chng cc d bo lch s ton din l nhim v ca x hi hc theo cch
nhn ca ch ngha lch s. Tm li, nh lch s ch ngha cho rng x hi hc l s hc
l thuyt.

35

13 NG HC X HI
S tng t gia khoa hc x hi v thin vn hc c th m rng thm. Phn thin vn
hc m cc nh lch s ch ngha thng xem xt, c hc thin th, da trn ng hc, l
thuyt v chuyn ng nh c xc nh bi cc lc. Cc tc gi lch s ch ngha
thng nhn mnh l x hi hc phi, theo cch tng t, da vo ng hc x hi, l
thuyt v vn ng x hi nh c cc lc lng x hi (hay lch s) xc nh.
Nh vt l bit rng, tnh hc ch l mt s tch ra t ng hc; tc l l thuyt gii
thch lm sao v v sao di nhng hon cnh nht nh khng c g xy ra, tc l v sao
s thay i khng xy ra; v n gii thch iu ny bng s cn bng ca cc lc chng
li nhau. Cn ng hc, mt khc, cp trng hp tng qut, tc l vi cc lc bng
nhau hay khng bng nhau, v c th c m t nh l thuyt gii thch lm sao v v
sao ci g xy ra. Nh th, ch ng hc c th cho chng ta cc nh lut c hiu lc
ph qut ca c hc; v t nhin l mt qu trnh; n chuyn ng, thay i, pht trin mc d i khi ch chm chp, lm cho vic quan st s pht trin c th kh khn.
S tng t ca cch nhn ny v ng hc i vi cch nhn v x hi hc ca nh
lch s ch ngha l hin nhin v khng cn bnh lun thm. Nhng, nh lch s ch
ngha c th cho rng, s tng t l su hn. ng ta, th d, c th cho rng x hi hc,
nh c ch ngha lch s hnh dung, l hi ging ng hc bi v n v bn cht l mt
l thuyt nhn qu; v s gii thch nhn qu ni chung l mt gii thch lm sao v v sao
cc s vt no xy ra. V c bn, mt gii thch nh vy phi lun c mt yu t lch
s. Nu ta hi ai b gy chn lm sao v v sao n xy ra, ta trng ch anh ta s ni v
lch s ca tai nn. Nhng ngay c mc t duy l thuyt, v c bit mc ca cc l
thuyt cho php d bo, mt phn tch lch s v cc nguyn nhn ca mt s kin l cn
thit. Th d in hnh ca nhu cu i vi mt phn tch nguyn nhn, nh lch s ch
ngha qu quyt, l vn v cn nguyn, hay cc l do bn cht, ca chin tranh.
Trong vt l hc, mt phn tch nh vy c thc hin bng xc nh cc lc tng
tc, tc l bi ng hc; v nh lch s ch ngha cho rng x hi hc phi n lc cng
nh th. N phi phn tch cc lc gy ra s thay i x hi v to ra lch s nhn loi.
T ng hc chng ta hc c cc lc tng tc to thnh cc lc mi ra sao; v ngc
li, bng phn tch cc lc ra cc thnh phn, chng ta c kh nng hiu thu cc nguyn
nhn cn bn hn ca cc s kin c xem xt. Cng nh vy, ch ngha lch s i hi
s tha nhn tm quan trng c bn ca cc lc lng lch s, bt lun tinh thn hay vt
cht; th d, cc t tng tn gio hay o c, hoc cc li ch kinh t. i phn tch, i
g mi bng bong ny ca cc xu hng v lc xung t nhau v thm nhp n, ln
n gc r ca n, n ng lc ph qut v cc qui lut ca bin i x hi- y l
nhim v ca cc khoa hc x hi, ch t theo mng tng ca ch ngha lch s. Ch
bng cch ny chng ta mi c th pht trin mt khoa hc l thuyt lm c s cho cc d
bo ton din m s xc nhn ca chng s c ngha l thnh cng ca l thuyt x hi.

36

14 CC QUI LUT LCH

S
Chng ta thy rng x hi hc, theo nh lch s ch ngha, l s hc l thuyt. Cc d
on khoa hc ca n phi da vo cc qui lut, v v chng l cc d bo lch s, d bo
v s bin i x hi, chng phi da vo cc qui lut lch s.
Nhng ng thi nh lch s ch ngha cho l phng php khi qut ho khng th p
dng c cho khoa hc x hi, v rng chng ta khng c gi thit nhng s ng
u ca i sng x hi l c hiu lc mt cch bt bin trong khng gian v thi gian, v
chng thng ch p dng cho mt giai on vn ho hay lch s no . Nh vy cc qui
lut x hi -nu c bt k qui lut x hi thc s no - phi c mt cu trc hi khc cc
khi qut ho thng thng da trn nhng s u n mt cht. Cc qui lut x hi thc
s phi c hiu lc ni chung. Song iu ny ch c th c ngha l chng p dng cho
ton b lch s loi ngi, ph mi giai on ca n hn l ch bao ph mt vi trong s
. Nhng khng th c cc s ng u x hi c cho l ng vt qu cc giai on
n nht. Nh vy cc qui lut c hiu lc ph qut duy nht ca x hi phi l cc qui
lut lin kt cc giai on k tip nhau. Chng phi l cc qui lut v pht trin lch s,
cc qui lut quyt nh qu t mt giai on sang giai on khc. y l ci cc nh
lch s ch ngha hiu khi ni rng cc qui lut duy nht ca x hi hc l cc qui lut
lch s.

15 TIN TRI LCH S

I LI CI BIN X
HI
Nh ch ra, cc qui lut lch s ny (nu c th khm ph ra chng) s cho php tin
on cc s kin thm ch rt xa, cho d khng chnh xc n pht v chi tit. Nh th
hc thuyt rng cc qui lut x hi thc s l cc qui lut lch s (mt hc thuyt ch yu
dn xut t tnh hiu lc hn ch ca nhng s ng u x hi) dn ta tr li, c lp vi
bt k n lc bt chc thin vn hc no, vi tng v d bo ton din. V n lm
cho tng ny c th hn, v n chng t l cc d bo ny c c tnh ca cc li tin
tri lch s.
X hi hc nh th tr thnh, theo nh lch s ch ngha, mt n lc gii vn c
v on trc tng lai; mc d khng phi tng lai ca c nhn m l ca cc nhm, v
37

ca loi ngi. N l khoa hc ca nhng th sp ti, ca s pht trin sp xy ra. Nu

n lc cung cp cho chng ta s thy trc c hiu lc khoa hc gi nh thnh cng,
th x hi hc s t ra c gi tr tht to ln cho cc chnh tr gia, c bit cho nhng ngi
c tm nhn vt qu nhng cp bch hin thi, cho cc chnh tr gia c thc v vn
mnh lch s. ng l mt s nh lch s ch ngha va lng tin on ch cc giai on
tip theo ca cuc hnh hng ca con ngi, v thm ch lm vic ny rt thn trng.
Nhng mt tng l chung cho tt c h- rng nghin cu x hi hc phi gip khm
ph ra tng lai, v rng n v vy c th tr thnh cng c hng u ca hot ng chnh
tr thc tin nhn xa trng rng.
T quan im gi tr thc dng ca khoa hc, tm quan trng ca cc tin on khoa
hc l r. Tuy vy, khng lun lun c hiu r l c th phn bit hai loi tin on
trong khoa hc, v v vy hai cch khc nhau l thc dng. Chng ta c th d bo (a)
mt cn bo sp xy ra, mt d bo c th c gi tr thc tin rt ln v n c th cho
php ngi dn kim ch tr n kp thi; nhng chng ta cng c th d bo (b) rng nu
mt ch tr n no c th ng vng vi bo, n phi c xy dng theo cch no
y, th d, vi tr tng pha bc bng b tng ct st.
Hai loi d bo ny hin nhin l rt khc nhau mc d c hai u quan trng v tho
mn cc c m lu i. Trong mt trng hp chng ta c ni v mt s kin m
chng ta chng c th lm g ngn chn. Ti s gi tin on nh vy l mt li tin
tri. Gi tr thc tin ca n l ch cnh bo chng ta v s kin c d bo, sao cho
chng ta c th trnh n n hay ng u vi n c chun b (c l vi s gip ca
cc d bo loi kia).
Ngc vi cc d on ny l cc d bo loi th hai m chng ta c th m t nh
cc d bo k thut (technological) v cc d bo loi ny to c s cho ngnh k thut
(engineering). C th ni, chng mang tnh xy dng, gi cc bc m ra cho chng ta
nu chng ta mun t kt qu nht nh. Phn ln vt l hc (gn nh tt c ngoi tr
thin vn hc v kh tng hc) a ra cc tin on dng m, xt t lp trng thc
tin, chng c th c m t nh d bo k thut. S phn bit gia hai loi tin on
ny i th trng vi tm quan trng t hn hay ln hn ca phn th nghim c thit
k i li vi n thun quan st nhn ni trong khoa hc c lin quan . Cc khoa hc
thc nghim in hnh c kh nng a ra cc d on k thut, cn cc khoa hc ch
yu p dng quan st khng c th nghim to ra cc li tin tri.
Ti khng mun c coi nh ng rng mi khoa hc, hoc thm ch mi tin on
khoa hc, cn bn mang tnh thc tin - rng chng nht thit hoc l mang tnh tin tri
hay k thut v khng th l bt k th g khc. Ti ch mun lu n s khc bit gia
hai loi tin on v cc khoa hc tng ng vi chng. Trong la chn thut ng tin
tri v k thut, ti chc chn mun m ch mt c im m chng bc l nu nhn t
quan im thc dng; nhng vic s dng thut ng ny ca ti chng c nh mun
ni rng quan im thc dng nht thit l u vit hn quan im khc, cng khng c
ng rng mi quan tm khoa hc ch gii hn cho cc li tin tri quan trng v mt thc
dng v cho cc tin on mang tnh k thut. Nu chng ta xem xt, th d, thin vn hc
th chng ta phi tha nhn rng nhng khm ph ca n ch yu l th v mt l thuyt
du cho chng khng phi khng c gi tr t quan im thc dng; nhng vi t cch l
cc li tin tri chng u ging nh cc d bo thi tit m gi tr ca chng cho cc
hot ng thc tin l kh hin nhin.

38

ng lu rng s khc bit ny gia tnh cht tin tri v k thut ca cc khoa hc
khng tng ng vi s khc bit gia cc d bo di hn v ngn hn. Mc d hu ht
tin on k thut l ngn hn cng c cc tin on k thut di hn, th d, v tui th
ca mt ng c. Ln na, cc tin tri thin vn c th hoc l ngn hn hoc l di hn,
v hu ht tin tri thi tit l tng i ngn hn.
S khc nhau gia hai mc tiu thc tin ny- tin tri v k thut v s khc nhau
tng ng trong cu trc ca cc l thuyt khoa hc lin quan, s c thy mun hn l
mt trong cc im chnh trong phn tch phng php lun ca chng ta. Lc ny ti ch
mun nhn mnh rng cc nh lch s ch ngha, kh nht qun vi lng tin ca h rng
cc th nghim x hi hc l v dng v khng th, l l ng h tin tri lch s- tin tri s
pht trin x hi, chnh tr v nh ch- v chng li ci bin x hi (social engineering),
nh mc tiu thc tin ca cc khoa hc x hi. tng v ci bin x hi, tc l k
hoch ho v xy dng cc nh ch, c l vi mc tiu chn li hay kim sot hay y
nhanh cc din bin x hi sp xy ra, t ra i vi mt s nh lch s ch ngha l c
th. i vi nhng ngi khc, iu ny dng nh l mt s m ng khng th lm
ni, hoc l vic b qua s thc rng k hoch ho chnh tr, ging mi hot ng x hi,
phi di s thng tr b trn ca cc lc lng lch s.

16 L THUYT V TIN
TRIN LCH S
Nhng cn nhc ny a chng ta n rt gn tm ca tp cc l l m ti kin ngh
gi l ch ngha lch s, v chng bin minh cho s la chn ci nhn ny. Khoa hc x
hi chng l g khc lch s: y l lun . Tuy vy, khng phi lch s theo ngha
truyn thng ca mt s bin nin ca cc s thc. Loi lch s m cc nh lch s ch
ngha mun ng nht vi x hi hc khng ch nhn lui li vo qu kh m cng nhn
hng v tng lai. N l vic nghin cu cc lc hot ng v, trc ht, cc qui lut
ca tin trin x hi. Do , n c th c m t nh l thuyt lch s, hay s hc l
thuyt, v ch c cc qui lut x hi c hiu lc ph qut mi c coi nh cc qui lut
lch s. Chng phi l cc qui lut v qu trnh, v thay i, v pht trin- khng phi cc
qui lut gi v nhng s bt bin hay ng u b ngoi. Theo cc nh lch s ch ngha,
cc nh x hi hc phi c t c tng chung v cc xu hng rng ln m cc c
cu x hi thay i ph hp vi chng. Nhng bn cnh iu ny, h phi c gng hiu
cc nguyn nhn ca qu trnh ny, hot ng ca cc lc chu trch nhim v thay i.
H phi c gng trnh by cc gi thuyt v cc xu hng chung nm di s pht trin
x hi, nhm cho con ngi c th iu chnh mnh i vi nhng thay i sp xy ra
bng cch rt ra cc li tin tri t cc qui lut ny.
Quan nim ca nh lch s ch ngha v x hi hc c th c lm r thm bng cch
theo di s phn bit m ti nu ra gia hai loi d on khc nhau v s phn bit
lin quan gia hai loi khoa hc. Ngc li vi phng php lun lch s ch ngha,
chng ta c th hnh dung mt phng php lun nhm ti khoa hc x hi k thut. Mt
39

phng php lun nh vy s dn n nghin cu cc qui lut chung ca i sng x hi

vi mc ch tm ra tt c cc s tht khng th thiu c nh c s cho cng vic ca
mi ngi tm cch ci cch cc nh ch x hi. Khng nghi ng g l c cc s thc
nh vy. Th d, chng ta bit nhiu h thng Khng tng phi thc tin n gin v
chng khng xem xt cc s thc mt cch thch ng. Phng php lun k thut m
chng ta ang xem xt s hng vo cung cp cc cng c trnh cc kin trc phi thc
tin nh vy. N s l phn lch s ch ngha, nhng chng h phn lch s. Kinh nghim
lch s s phc v n nh ngun thng tin quan trng nht. Nhng, thay cho vic c tm
ra cc qui lut v pht trin x hi, n s tm cc qui lut a dng, cc qui lut p t
nhng hn ch ln vic xy dng cc nh ch x hi, hoc tm cc tnh u n khc
(mc d nhng iu ny, cc nh lch s ch ngha ni, khng tn ti).
Cng nh dng cc l l ngc li thuc loi c tho lun ri, nh lch s ch ngha
c th nghi ng kh nng v tnh hu dng ca mt cng ngh x hi nh vy. Hy gi
s, ng ta c th ni, rng k s x hi vch t m mt k hoch cho mt cu trc x
hi mi, c h tr bi loi x hi hc c ta hnh dung ra. Chng ta gi s rng k
hoch ny l c thc t ln hin thc theo ngha rng n khng mu thun vi cc s thc
quen bit v cc qui lut ca i sng x hi; v chng ta thm ch gi s rng k hoch
c h tr bi mt k hoch na thc tin ngang th bin i x hi nh vn c hin
nay sang cu trc mi. Cho d c ng nh th, cc l l lch s ch ngha chng t rng
mt k hoch nh vy s khng ng xem xt nghim tc. N vn l mt c m phi
hin thc v Khng tng, chnh v n khng tnh n cc qui lut v pht trin lch s.
Cc cuc cch mng x hi khng phi do cc k hoch duy l gy ra, m do cc lc
lng x hi gy ra, th d, do nhng xung t li ch. tng c xa v mt ng vuatrit gia, ngi a cc k hoch c suy ngh cn thn no vo thc tin, l mt
chuyn c ba ra v li ch ca gii qu tc a ch. Ci tng ng dn ch ca
chuyn ba ny l s m tn rng s ngi c thin ch s c th c l l duy l
thuyt phc thc hin cc hnh ng c k hoch. Lch s chng t rng thc t x hi
l hon ton khc. Tin trnh din tin lch s chng bao gi c nh hnh bi cc cu
trc l thuyt, du cho xut sc n u, d cho cc s nh vy c th, phi tha nhn,
c nh hng no , cng vi nhiu nhn t t duy l (hay thm ch phi l) khc. Ngay c
nu mt k hoch duy l c trng vi cc li ch ca cc nhm hng mnh n s chng
bao gi c thc hin theo cch m n c hnh dung, bt chp s thc rng cuc u
tranh thc hin n khi s tr thnh mt nhn t ch yu trong qu trnh lch s. Kt
qu tht s lun lun rt khc cu trc duy l. N s lun lun l kt qu ca hnh trng
nht thi ca cc lc lng tranh ua nhau. Hn na, kt qu ca k hoch ho duy l
khng th tr thnh mt cu trc n nh di bt k hon cnh no; v s cn bng lc
lng nht thit thay i. Mi ci bin x hi (social engineering), bt k n t ho n
u v tnh hin thc v v tnh khoa hc ca n, u chu s phn vn l mt m c
Khng tng.
Cho n by gi, nh lch s ch ngha tip tc, l l c hng chng kh nng thc
tin ca ci bin x hi c h tr bi khoa hc x hi l thuyt no , v khng chng
li tng ca bn thn mt khoa hc nh vy. Tuy vy, n c th c m rng d
dng chng minh tnh khng th ca bt k khoa hc x hi no thuc loi cng ngh.
Chng ta thy rng s m ng phiu lu ci bin c tnh thc tin chu s phn
tht bi v cc s thc v qui lut x hi rt quan trng. Nhng iu ny hm khng ch
rng mt s phiu lu nh vy khng c gi tr thc tin m cng hm rng n yu v
40

mt l thuyt, v n b qua cc qui lut x hi duy nht quan trng tht s - cc qui lut
pht trin. Khoa hc m n c cho l da vo cng phi b st cc qui lut ny, v
khc i th n s chng bao gi cung cp c c cho cc cu trc phi thc t n vy.
Bt k khoa hc x hi no, khng thuyt ging tnh khng th ca kin trc x hi duy l
l hon ton m qung i vi cc s thc quan trng nht ca i sng x hi, v phi
b qua cc qui lut x hi duy nht c tnh hp l tht s v tm quan trng tht s. Cc
khoa hc x hi tm cch to c s cho ci bin x hi, v vy, khng th m t ng cc
s thc x hi. Bn thn chng l khng th.
Nh lch s ch ngha s i hi rng bn cnh ph phn mang tnh quyt nh ny cn
c cc l do khc na t chi x hi hc cng ngh. Mt l do, th d, l chng b qua
cc kha cnh ca din tin x hi nh s ni ln ca tnh mi. tng rng chng ta c
th xy dng cc cu trc x hi mi mt cch duy l trn c s khoa hc hm rng
chng ta c th to ra mt thi k lch s mi t nhiu chnh xc theo cch chng ta lp
k hoch. Th m nu k hoch da vo mt khoa hc bao trm cc s thc x hi, th n
khng th tnh n cc c tnh mi thc cht, ch n nhng tnh mi v sp xp (xem
mc 3). Nhng chng ta bit rng mt thi k mi s c tnh mi tht s ring ca n mt l l phi lm cho bt k k hoch ho chi tit no l v ch, v bt k khoa hc no
m n da vo u khng ng.
Nhng cn nhc lch s ch ngha ny c th p dng cho mi khoa hc x hi, bao
gm c kinh t hc. Kinh t hc, v vy, khng th cho chng ta bt k thng tin c gi tr
no lin quan n ci cch x hi. Ch c gi-kinh t hc c th tm cch to mt c s
cho k hoch ho kinh t duy l. Kinh t hc khoa hc tht s ch c th gip tit l cc
ng lc ca pht trin kinh t thng qua cc giai on lch s khc nhau. N c th gip
chng ta nhn thy trc cc nt phc ho ca cc giai on tng lai, nhng n khng
th gip chng ta pht trin v a vo hot ng bt k k hoch chi tit no cho bt k
thi k mi no. Ci ng vi cc khoa hc x hi khc phi ng vi kinh t hc. Mc
ch cui cng ca n ch c th bc trn qui lut kinh t v vn ng ca x hi loi
ngi (Marx).

41

17 DIN GII I LI
LP K HOCH
THAY I X HI
Quan im lch s ch ngha v pht trin x hi khng ng thuyt nh mnh n cng
chng dn n khng hot ng- hon ton ngc li. Hu ht cc nh lch s ch ngha
c cc khuynh hng rt r rt hng ti ch ngha tch cc (xem mc 1). Ch ngha
lch s nhn ra y rng nhng mong mun v suy ngh ca chng ta, cc c m v
l l ca chng ta, s s hi v tri thc ca chng ta, cc li ch v nng lc ca chng ta,
u l cc lc lng pht trin x hi. N khng dy rng chng c th to ra ci g;
n ch tin on rng c cc m c ca ta ln nhng ci m l tr ca ta xy dng ln s
chng bao gi xy ra theo k hoch. Ch c cc k hoch khp vi dng lch s ch yu
l c th c kt qu. By gi ta c th thy chnh xc loi hot ng c cc nh lch s
ch ngha tha nhn l hp l. Ch c cc hot ng nh vy l hp l, cc hot ng hp
vi, v thc y cho, cc thay i sp xy ra. Vic x hi l hot ng hp l c
a chung duy nht m ra cho chng ta, l hot ng duy nht c th da vo s nhn xa
trng rng khoa hc.
Mc d khng c l thuyt khoa hc no c th trc tip khuyn khch hnh ng (n
ch c th lm nn lng cc hnh ng phi thc tin no y), gin tip, n c th c v
nhng ngi cm thy mnh phi lm ci g . Ch ngha lch s dt khot to loi c
v ny. N thm ch cho l tr con ngi mt vai tr no ng; v n l l l khoa
hc, khoa hc x hi lch s ch ngha, ci ch ring n c th ni cho chng ta hng
ca bt k hnh ng no cn ly nu mun n trng vi hng ca cc thay i sp xy
ra.
Tin tri lch s v din gii lch s nh vy phi tr thnh c s ca bt k hot ng
x hi c suy ngh k v thc t no. V vy, din gii lch s phi l cng vic trung
tm ca t duy lch s ch ngha; v i snh vi s thc n tr thnh nh vy. Mi
suy ngh v mi hnh ng ca cc nh lch s ch ngha hng ti din gii qu kh,
nhm d on tng lai.
Ch ngha lch s c th cho nim hi vng hay c v cho nhng ngi mun thy mt
th gii tt p hn khng? Ch mt nh lch s ch ngha ngi c quan im lc quan
v pht trin x hi, tin vo n l tt hay c l mt cch ni ti, theo ngha hng thc
cht ti mt trng thi tt hn, hp l hn, mi c th cho mt nim hi vng nh vy.
Nhng quan im ny chng khc g l mt lng tin vo nhng php thn k chnh tr v
x hi, v n ph nhn i vi l tr con ngi quyn lc to ra mt th gii hp l hn.
Thc vy, mt s tc gi lch s ch ngha c uy tn lc quan on trc s tin ti ca
mt vng quc t do, trong cng vic con ngi c th c lp k hoch da trn l
tr. V h dy rng qu t vng quc ca s tt yu trong nhn loi hin ti buc
phi chu ng sang vng quc t do v l tr khng th do l tr gy ra, m - mt cch k

42

diu- ch do s tt yu th bo, do cc qui lut pht trin lch s m qung v khng lay
chuyn c, m h khuyn chng ta nn phc tng.
Nhng ngi mun tng nh hng ca l tr trong i sng x hi c th ch c ch
ngha lch s khuyn i nghin cu v din gii lch s, nhm pht hin ra cc qui lut
pht trin ca n. Nu s din gii nh vy tit l rng cc thay i p li mong mi ca
h sp xy ra, th mong mun l hp l, v n thng nht vi tin on khoa hc. Nu s
pht trin sp ti c xu hng theo chiu khc, th mong mun lm cho th gii hp l
hn ho ra l hon ton khng hp l; i vi cc nh lch s ch ngha th n ng ch l
mt m c Khng tng. Ch ngha tch cc c th c bin minh chng no n ng
vi cc thay i sp xy ra v thc y chng.
Ti chng t ri rng phng php theo t nhin, theo cch nhn ca ch ngha lch
s, ng mt l thuyt x hi hc xc nh- l thuyt rng x hi khng pht trin hay
thay i mt cch ng k. By gi chng ta thy rng phng php lch s ch ngha
ng mt l thuyt x hi hc tng t mt cch l k l thuyt rng x hi s nht thit
thay i nhng theo mt qu o c xc nh trc khng th thay i, thng qua cc
giai on c xc nh trc bi tnh tt yu khng lay chuyn c.
Khi mt x hi khm ph ra qui lut t nhin xc nh s vn ng ring ca n,
thm ch khi n chng th nhy qua c cc giai on tin trin t nhin ca n, cng
khng loi b c chng bng mnh lnh [nguyn vn bng nt bt]. Nhng ngn ny
n c th lm: rt ngn v gim bt s au . Cch trnh by ny ca Marx,4 i din
tuyt vi cho lp trng lch s ch ngha. Mc d n khng dy t b hnh ng n
cng chng dy thuyt nh mnh tht, ch ngha lch s dy v s v ch ca bt k n
lc no thay i nhng s thay i sp xy ra; mt loi thuyt nh mnh l k, mt
thuyt nh mnh lin quan n cc xu hng lch s. Phi th nhn, li h ho hot
ng ch ngha Cc trit gia ch din gii th gii theo nhng cch khc nhau:
im quan trng, tuy vy, l bin i n5 - c th nhn c nhiu ng tnh ca cc nh
lch s ch ngha (hiu th gii y l x hi loi ngi ang pht trin) v s nhn
mnh ca n v thay i. Song n mu thun vi cc hc thuyt quan trng nht ca ch
ngha lch s. V nh by gi chng ta thy, chng ta c th ni: Nh lch s ch ngha
ch c th din gii s pht trin x hi v gip n theo cc cch khc nhau; im quan
trng, tuy vy, l chng ai c th thay i n.

4
5

Li ni u ca Capital (T bn lun).
Li h ho ny cng l ca Marx (Theses on Feuerbach); xem trn, cui mc 1.

43

18 KT THC PHN
TCH
C th cm thy rng nhng s trnh by cui ca ti lch khi nh c cng khai th
nhn ca ti l trc tin phc ho cc lp trng lch s ch ngha cng sc nt v cng
thuyt phc cng tt trc khi chuyn sang ph phn n. V nhng trnh by ny c gng
chng t rng thin hng ca mt s nh lch s ch ngha n ch ngha lc quan hay
ch ngha tch cc b chnh kt qu ca bn thn phn tch lch s ch ngha lm tht bi.
iu ny c th dng nh ng s buc ti rng ch ngha lch s l khng nht qun.
V ngi ta c th trch ti l khng ngay thng i cho php ph phn v ma mai ln
vo s trnh by.
Tuy nhin, ti khng ngh s trch mc ny l ng. Ch nhng ngi u tin l cc
nh lc quan ch ngha hay tch cc ch ngha, ri sau l lch s ch ngha, mi c th
coi cc nhn xt ca ti l ph phn theo mt ngha bt li. (S c nhiu ngi cm thy
nh vy: nhng ngi ban u b ch ngha lch s hp dn v thin hng ca h ti ch
ngha lc quan hay ch ngha tch cc). Nhng vi nhng ngi trc ht l lch s ch
ngha, cc nhn xt ca ti phi xut hin khng nh mt ph phn cc hc thuyt lch s
ch ngha ca h m ch nh mt ph phn cc mu toan gn n vi ch ngha lc quan
hay ch ngha tch cc.
Nh vy hn khng phi mi dng ca ch ngha tch cc b ph phn l khng tng
hp vi ch ngha lch s, m ch mt s dng ngng cung hn ca n. Nh so snh vi
phng php theo t nhin, mt nh lch s ch ngha thun tu s l l, ch ngha lch s
c c v s tch cc, v s nhn mnh ca n n thay i, tin trnh, vn ng; tuy nhin
chc chn n khng khuyn khch mt cch m qung mi loi hnh ng nh cc hnh
ng hp l nhn t quan im khoa hc; nhiu hnh ng kh d l phi thc t, v s tht
bi ca chng c th c khoa hc thy trc. iu ny, ng ta c th ni, l l do v sao
ng ta v cc nh lch s ch ngha khc p t cc hn ch ln phm vi ca ci h tha
nhn l hnh ng hu ch, v v sao mt s nhn mnh n cc hn ch ny l cn thit
cho bt k s phn tch r no ca ch ngha lch s. V ng ta c th cho l hai trch dn
ca Marx ( mc trc) khng mu thun vi nhau, m b sung cho nhau; rng mc d
trch dn th hai (v l trch dn c hn) xt ring n c l c v hi tch cc ch ngha
qu, cc hn ch ng n ca n c trch dn th nht qui nh; v nu trch dn th
hai hp dn cc nh tch cc ch ngha cc oan v khin h i theo ch ngha lch s, th
trch dn th nht phi ch cho h cc gii hn ng n ca bt k hnh ng no, d l
n v th c lm gim s ng tnh ca chng.
Dng nh i vi ti v cc l do ny m trnh by ca ti l khng bt cng, m n
ch lm r ci nn lin quan n ch ngha tch cc. Tng t, ti khng ngh l nhn xt
khc ca ti mc trc, theo ch ngha lc quan lch s ch ngha ch da vo ring
nim tin (v l tr b ph nhn c vai tr to ra mt th gii hp l hn), li c coi l mt
ph phn bt li cho ch ngha lch s. N c th c v bt li cho nhng ngi trc ht
l cc nh lc quan ch ngha hay cc oan. Ngc li, trong phn tch ny nh lch s
ch ngha nht qun s ch thy mt cnh bo hu ch chng li tnh cht lng mn v
44

Khng tng ca c ch ngha lc quan ln ch ngha bi quan trong cc hnh thc thng
thng ca chng, v ca c ch ngha duy l na. ng ta s khng khng l ch ngha
lch s khoa hc tht s phi c lp vi cc yu t nh vy; rng chng ta n gin phi
phc tng cc qui lut pht trin hin c, ht nh chng ta phi phc tng nh lut hp
dn.
Nh lch s ch ngha thm ch c th i xa hn na. ng ta c th thm rng thi
hp l nht l, ta phi iu chnh h thng gi tr ca mnh sao cho ph hp vi nhng
thay i sp xy ra. Nu iu ny c lm, ta n mt dng c th c bin minh ca
ch ngha lc quan, v bt k s thay i no u nht thit l mt s thay i tt hn,
nu c nh gi theo h thng gi tr .
Cc tng loi ny thc t c mt s nh lch s ch ngha tin v thm ch
c pht trin thnh mt l thuyt o c lch s ch ngha kh nht qun (v kh ph
bin): ci tt v mt o c l ci tin b v mt o c, tc l ci tt v mt o c l
ci i trc thi i ca n ph hp vi cc tiu chun ng x nh s c chp nhn
trong giai on tng lai.
L thuyt o c lch s ch ngha ny, ci c th c m t nh ch ngha hin i
o c hay ch ngha v lai o c (c ci i chiu ca n trong ch ngha hin i
hay ch ngha v lai thm m) ph hp tt vi thi chng bo th ca ch ngha lch
s; n cng c th c coi nh mt tr li cho cc cu hi no lin quan n gi tr
(xem mc 6, v Tnh Khch quan v nh gi). Trc ht, n c th c coi nh mt
du hiu rng ch ngha lch s - m, trong nghin cu ny, ch c kho st nghim tc
chng mc nh mt hc thuyt v phng php c th c m rng v pht trin
thnh mt h thng trit hc y . Hoc, ni cch khc: dng nh khng phi l
khng chc rng phng php lch s ch ngha c th c xut x nh mt phn ca mt
din gii trit hc chung ca th gii. V khng nghi ng g rng, t quan im lch s
mc d khng t quan im logic, cc phng php lun thng l cc sn phm ph ca
cc quan im trit hc. Ti c nh kho st cc trit l lch s ch ngha ny ni
khc.6 y ti s ch ph phn cc hc thuyt phng php lun ca ch ngha lch s,
nh chng c trnh by trn.

T cng trnh ny c vit, The Open Society and Its Enemies c xut bn. (London 1945;
cc ln ti bn c sa li, Princeton 1950, London 1952, 1957; ti bn ln th t, London 1961). Ti m ch
y ti chng 22 ca cun sch ny, c nhan The Moral Theory of Historicism.

45

III
__________________________

PH PHN CC THUYT
PHN-T NHIN

19 MC TIU THC
TIN CA PH PHN
NY
y khng cn tr li cho cu hi, liu ng c tht ca s iu tra khoa hc l kht
vng bit, tc l, s t m thun tu l thuyt hay v dng, hoc ng hn chng ta
phi hiu khoa hc nh mt cng c gii quyt cc vn thc tin ny sinh trong
cuc u tranh v cuc sng hay khng. Phi tha nhn rng nhng ngi bo v quyn
ca nghin cu thun tu hay c bn xng ng mi s ng h trong cuc u tranh
ca h chng li quan im thin cn, ng tic li hp thi, rng nghin cu khoa hc
ch c bin minh nu n chng t l mt khon u t lnh mnh.7 Nhng ngay c
quan im hi cc oan (m c nhn ti thin v) rng khoa hc tr nn c ngha nht
chnh nh mt trong nhng s phiu lu tinh thn ln nht m con ngi tng bit n c
th c kt hp vi s tha nhn tm quan trng ca cc vn thc tin v cc kim
chng thc tin cho s tin b ca khoa hc, bt lun ng dng hay thun tu; v thc
tin l v gi cho suy t khoa hc, c nh mt kch thch ln nh mt dy cng. Chng
cn theo ch ngha thc dng nh gi cao cu ni ca Kant:

Vn l mt vn c xa. Ngay c Plato i khi tn cng nghin cu thun tu. V nhng ngi bo
v n, xem T. H. Huxley, Science and Culture (1882), p. 19 f., v M. Polanyi, Economica, N. S., vol. VIII
(1941), pp. 428 ff. (ngoi cc sch c trch dn , xem c Veblen, The Place of Science in Modern
Civilisation, pp. 7 ff.)

46

Chy theo mi thch bt cht ca tnh t m, v cho nim am m hiu bit

chng b hn ch no ngoi cc gii hn v kh nng ca chng ta, iu ny chng
t mt s hm h tr tu xng vi khoa hc. Nhng chnh s sng sut l ci c gi
tr v la chn, t v s cc vn c by ra, chn ra cc vn m li gii ca
chng l quan trng cho nhn loi.8

p dng iu ny cho cc khoa hc sinh hc v c l nhiu hn cho cc khoa hc x

hi l r rng. Ci cch cc khoa hc sinh hc ca Pasteur c tin hnh di s kch
thch ca cc vn rt thc tin. V ngy nay cc nghin cu x hi c s cp bch vt
qu s cp bch ca nghin cu ung th. Nh Gio s Hayek ni, phn tch kinh t
chng bao gi l sn phm ca s t m tr tu tch bit v ci v sao ca cc hin tng
x hi, m l ca mt s thi thc mnh lit ti kin thit mt th gii gy ra s bt
mn su sc;9 v mt s khoa hc x hi, khc kinh t hc, vn cha chp nhn quan
im ny, chng t bi s cn ci ca cc kt qu ca chng rng s suy on ca chng
cn n s hn ch thc tin n chng no.
S cn thit i vi kch thch ca cc vn thc tin cng r ngang th khi chng ta
xem xt vic kho st cc phng php nghin cu khoa hc, v c bit hn, cc
phng php khi qut ho hay cc khoa hc x hi l thuyt m chng ta quan tm
y. Cc cuc tranh lun c kt qu hn v phng php lun c truyn cm hng bi
cc vn thc tin i mt vi nh nghin cu; v gn nh tt c cc tranh lun v
phng php khng c truyn cm hng nh vy c c trng bi s bi lng tm
vt v ch lm cho phng php lun mang ting xu trc nh nghin cu thc hnh.
Phi nhn ra rng cc cuc tranh lun phng php lun thuc loi thc tin hn khng
ch l hu ch m cng l cn thit. Trong pht trin v ci thin phng php, cng nh
ca bn thn khoa hc, chng ta hc ch bng th v sai, v chng ta cn s ph phn ca
nhng ngi khc nhm tm ra sai lm ring ca mnh; v s ph phn ny cng quan
trng hn v a cc phng php mi vo c th c ngha l mt s thay i mang tnh
cn bn v cch mng. Tt c iu ny c th c minh ho bi cc th d nh a cc
phng php ton hc vo kinh t hc, hoc a ci gi l cc phng php ch quan
hay tm l hc vo l thuyt gi tr. Mt th d mi y l s kt hp ca cc phng
php ca l thuyt ny vi cc phng php thng k (phn tch cu). Cuc cch mng
cui cng ny v phng php mt phn l kt qu ca cc cuc tranh lun ko di v
rt ph phn; mt s thc m t ngi bin h cho nghin cu phng php chc chn
c th ly ra nim c v.
Cch tip cn thc tin cho nghin cu c cc khoa hc x hi v phng php ca
chng c nhiu ngi theo ch ngha lch s ch trng, nhng ngi hi vng rng h
s c kh nng bin i cc khoa hc x hi thnh mt cng c hng mnh trong tay cc
nh chnh tr bng cch dng cc phng php lch s ch ngha. Chnh s nhn ra ny
v nhim v thc tin ca cc khoa hc x hi l ci cung cp mt ci g ging mt
nn tng chung cho tho lun gia cc nh lch s ch ngha v mt s i th ca h; v
ti sn sng ly lp trng ca mnh trn nn tng chung ny ph phn ch ngha lch
s nh mt phng php ngho nn, khng c kh nng mang li cc kt qu m n ha
hn.

8
9

Kant, Dreams of a Ghost Seer, Part II, ch. III (Werke, ed. E. Cassirer, vol. II, p. 385).
Xem Economica, vol. XIII (1933), p. 122.

47

20 CCH TIP CN K
THUT N X HI
HC
Mc d ch ca ti trong nghin cu ny l ch ngha lch s, mt hc thuyt phng
php m ti khng tn thnh, hn l cc phng php m, theo ti, thnh cng, v ti
khuyn ngh pht trin chng thm na v c thc hn, trc tin s hu ch cp
ngn ngn n cc phng php thnh cng, tit l cho c gi bit thin kin ring
ca ti v lm r quan im lm c s cho ph phn ca ti. thun tin, ti s gn
cho cc phng php ny ci nhn k thut tng phn.
Thut ng cng ngh x hi (v thut ng k thut x hi, ci bin x hi10 c
a ra mc tip cn hn th) chc s gy nghi ng, v gy kh chu cho nhng ngi
m n gi nh n cc k hoch x hi ca cc nh k hoch ho tch cc ch ngha,
hay ngay c ca cc nh k tr. Ti nhn ra mi nguy him ny, cho nn ti chua thm
t tng phn, c b li nhng lin tng khng mong mun v by t nim tin chc
ca ti rng v vu dn dn (i khi n c gi th), kt hp vi phn tch ph phn, l
cch ch yu t cc kt qu thc tin trong khoa hc x hi cng nh t nhin. Cc
khoa hc x hi c pht trin ch yu thng qua ph phn cc kin ngh ci thin x
hi hay, chnh xc hn, thng qua cc cc n lc tm ra liu hnh ng kinh t hay
chnh tr c bit no chc c to ra kt qu k vng, hoc mong mun hay khng.11
Cch tip cn ny, tht ra c th c gi l cch tip cn kinh in, l ci ti ngh khi ti
nhc n cch tip cn k thut cho khoa hc x hi, hoc cho k thut x hi tng phnpiecemeal social technology.
Cc vn k thut trong lnh vc khoa hc x hi c th mang tnh t nhn hay
cng cng. Th d, nghin cu k thut qun tr kinh doanh, hay nghin cu nh hng
ca cc iu kin lm vic c ci thin ln u ra, thuc nhm th nht. Nhng nghin
cu nh hng ca ci cch nh t hay ca bo him y t ph qut, hay ca n nh gi
c bng cc cng c to n, hay ca vic a ra cc loi thu nhp khu mi, v. v., ln,
th d, s qun bnh ho thu nhp, thuc nhm th hai; cng th vi cc vn thc tin
cp bch nht hin nay, nh kh nng kim sot cc chu k thng mi; hay vn liu
k hoch ho tp trung, hiu theo ngha nh nc qun l sn xut, c tng thch vi s
kim sot chnh quyn mt cch dn ch v c hiu qu hay khng; hay vn xut khu
dn ch sang Trung ng th no.

10

V mt bo cha cho thut ng ny, xem ch thch 10 trang 58 di y.

So snh vi F. A. von Hayek, Economica, vol. XIII (1933), p. 123. kinh t hc pht trin ch yu
nh kt qu ca iu tra kho st v bc b cc kin ngh Khng tng k tip nhau
11

48

S nhn mnh ny v cch tip cn k thut thc tin khng c ngha rng phi loi tr
bt k vn l thuyt no c th ny sinh t phn tch cc vn thc tin. Ngc li,
chnh mt trong cc im nhn ch yu ca ti l cch tip cn k thut chc t ra c kt
qu trong to ra cc vn thun tu l thuyt quan trng. Nhng bn cnh vic gip
chng ta trong nhim v cn bn v la chn cc vn , cch tip cn k thut p t mt
k lut ln cc thin hng suy on ca chng ta (m, c bit trong lnh vc x hi hc
d dn chng ta n lnh vc ca siu hnh hc); v n buc cc l thuyt ca chng ta
phi tun theo cc tiu chun xc nh, nh cc tiu chun v tnh sng sa v tnh c th
kim tra thc tin. C l c th trnh by quan im ca ti v cch tip cn k thut bng
cch ni rng x hi hc (v c l cc khoa hc x hi ni chung) phi tm kim thc ra
khng phi cc Newton hay Darwin ca mnh,12 m ng hn l cc Galileo, hay
Pasteur ca mnh.
iu ny v cc dn chiu trc ca ti n s tng t gia cc phng php ca cc
khoa hc x hi v khoa hc t nhin chc cng gy nhiu phn i nh s la chn
thut ng cng ngh x hi v k thut x hi, ci bin x hi ca chng ta (iu ny
bt chp s d dt quan trng c biu l bi t tng phn). Chnh v th tt hn cho
ti ni rng ti hon ton nh gi cao tm quan trng ca cuc chin chng ch ngha
t nhin phng php lun gio iu hay ch ngha khoa hc - scientism (dng t ca
Gio s Hayek). Tuy nhin ti khng thy v sao chng ta li khng s dng s tng t
ny chng no n cn c kt qu, cho d chng ta tha nhn rng n b lm dng mt
cch ti t v b l gii sai trong mt s gii. Ngoi ra, kh khn lm chng ta mi c th
c mt l l mnh m chng li cc nh t nhin ch ngha gio iu ny hn l l l
chng t rng mt s phng php m h cng kch v c bn l cng cc phng php
c dng trong cc khoa hc t nhin.
S phn i trc tin chng li ci m chng ta gi l cch tip cn k thut l n ng
s chp nhn mt thi tch cc ch ngha i vi trt t x hi (xem mc 1), v
rng chnh v th n lm cho chng ta c thnh kin chng li quan im chng can thip
hay th ng ch ngha: quan im rng nu chng ta bt mn vi cc iu kin x hi
v kinh t hin ti, l chnh bi v chng ta khng hiu chng hot ng th no v v sao
s can thip tch cc ch c th lm cho s vic ti t hn. By gi ti phi th nhn rng
ti chc chn khng c thin cm vi quan im th ng ny, v rng thm ch ti tin
l mt chnh sch ca ch ngha chng can thip ph qut l khng th ng vng c
ngay c v l do thun tu logic, v nhng ngi ng h n nht nh s kin ngh can
thip chnh tr nhm ngn chn can thip. Tuy nhin, bn thn cch tip cn k thut l
trung lp trong chuyn ny (nh thc ra n phi vy), v chng h khng tng thch vi
ch ngha chng can thip. Ngc li, ti ngh rng ch ngha chng can thip i hi
mt cch tip cn k thut. V khng nh rng ch ngha can thip lm cho vn ti t
hn l ni rng cc hnh ng chnh tr no s khng c cc tc ng no - tc l,
khng c nhng tc ng mong mun; v mt trong cc nhim v c trng nht ca bt
k cng ngh no l i ch ra ci g l khng th t c.

12

Xem M. Ginsberg, trong Human Affairs (do R. B. Cartell v nhng ngi khc ch bin), tr. 180. Phi
tha nhn, tuy vy, rng s thnh cng ca kinh t hc ton hc chng t rng ch t mt khoa hc x hi
tri qua cch mng Newton ca n.

49

B cng xem xt im ny k lng hn. Nh ti ch ra ni khc,13 mi nh lut

t nhin u c th c pht biu bng khng nh rng mt th no khng th xy
ra; tc l mt cu c dng ca mt ngn ng: Khng th mang nc trong sng c.
Th d, nh lut bo ton nng lng c th c pht biu bng: Khng th xy dng
ng c vnh cu, v nh lut v entropy bng: Khng th xy dng mt my c hiu
sut mt trm phn trm. Cch pht biu cc nh lut t nhin ny l cch pht biu lm
cho tm quan trng cng ngh l hin nhin v v th n c th c gi l dng k
thut ca nh lut t nhin. Nu by gi chng ta xem xt ch ngha chng can thip
theo nh sng ny, th chng ta thy ngay rng n c th c php biu tt bng cc cu
c dng: Khng th t c cc kt qu nh th v nh th, hay c l, khng th t
c cc mc ch nh th v nh th m khng c cc tc ng i km nh th v nh
th. Nhng iu ny chng t rng ch ngha chng can thip c th c gi l mt hc
thuyt k thut in hnh.
N, tt nhin, khng phi l duy nht trong lnh vc khoa hc x hi. Ngc li,
ngha ca phn tch ca chng ta nm s thc rng n lu n s tng t tht s cn
bn gia cc khoa hc t nhin v khoa hc x hi. Ti ngh ti s tn ti ca cc nh
lut hay gi thuyt x hi hc tng t nh cc nh lut hay gi thuyt ca cc khoa hc
t nhin. V s tn ti ca cc nh lut hay gi thuyt x hi hc (khc vi ci gi l cc
qui lut lch s) nh vy thng b nghi ng,14 by gi ti s a ra mt lot th d:
Chng ta khng th a ra cc loi thu nng nghip v ng thi gim gi sinh hot.
Trong mt x hi cng nghip, chng ta khng th t chc cc nhm p lc ngi tiu
dng hu hiu nh c th t chc cc nhm p lc ngi sn xut no . Chng ta
khng th c mt x hi k hoch ho tp trung vi mt h thng gi thc hin cc chc
nng ch yu ca gi c cnh tranh. Chng ta khng th c cng n vic lm y
m khng c lm pht. Mt nhm th d khc c th ly ra t lnh vc chnh tr hc
quyn lc: Chng ta khng th a ra mt ci cch chnh tr m khng gy ra cc hu
qu no khng ng mong mun nhn t quan im ca cc mc ch t ra (v vy,
cn phi ch ti chng). Chng ta khng th a ra mt ci cch chnh tr m khng
cng c cc lc lng chng i, i th mc t l vi phm vi ca ci cch. (iu
ny c th coi l mt h qu k thut ca nh l Lun c cc nhm li ch gn vi status
quo [hin trng]). Chng ta khng th lm mt cuc cch mng m khng gy ra s
phn ng. Thm vo cc th d ny chng ta c th a ra hai nh lut m chng ta c
th gi l nh lut cch mng ca Plato (ly t quyn th tm ca Republic) v nh
lut tham nhng ca Lord Acton: Chng ta khng th tin hnh mt cuc cch mng
thnh cng nu giai cp thng tr khng b yu i do s chia r ni b hay b nh bi
trong chin tranh. Chng ta khng th cho mt ngi quyn lc trn nhng ngi
khc m khng cm d hn ta lm dng n - mt s cm d tng i th vi quyn lc
nm c, v rt t ngi c kh nng cng li s cm d .15 Chng c g c gi
13

Xem Logic of Scientific Discovery (1959) ca ti, mc 15. ( Cc nh tn ti dng ph nh). L

thuyt c th c i snh vi Logic, Cun V, Chng 5, Mc 2 ca J. S. Mill.
14
Xem, th d, M. R. Cohen, Reason and Nature, tr. 356 ff[v cc trang tip]. Cc th d trong vn bn hnh
nh bc b quan im phn-t nhin ch ngha c bit ny.
15
Mt pht biu tng t ca qui lut tham nhng ny c C. J. Friedrich tho lun trong tc phm
Constitutional Government and Politics (1937) rt l th v mt phn mang tnh k thut ca ng. ng ni
v qui lut ny rng tt c cc khoa hc t nhin khng th kiu hnh v mt gi thuyt duy nht ngang
tm quan trng cho loi ngi (tr. 7). Ti khng nghi ng v tm quan trng ca n; nhng ti ngh rng
chng ta c th thy v s qui lut c tm quan trng ngang vy trong cc khoa hc t nhin, nu chng ta

50

thit y v sc mnh ca bng chng sn c ng h cc gi thuyt ny m s trnh

by chng chc chn cn nhiu ch ci thin. Chng n thun l cc th d v loi
cc tuyn b m k thut tng phn c th th tho lun, v chng minh.

tm kim chng gia cc qui lut tm thng hn l gia cc qui lut tru tng hn. (Hy xem cc qui
lut nh con ngi khng th sng m khng c thc phm, hoc cc ng vt c xng sng c hai ging
[c, ci]). Gio s Friedrich c khng khng ng h lun rng cc khoa hc x hi khng th c li
ch t p dng cc phng php ca khoa hc t nhin (op. cit. tr. 4). Nhng, mt khc, ng c t c s
cho l thuyt v chnh tr hc ca mnh trn mt lot cc gi thuyt m v tnh cht ca chng cc on trch
tip theo (op. cit. tr. 14ff [v cc trang tip]) c th cho mt tng: s tn thnh v s e d u l sinh
lc, to ra quyn lc; cng nhau chng xc nh cng ca tnh th chnh tr; v bi v cng ny
c xc nh bi ln tuyt i ca s tn thnh hay e d hay ca c hai, n c l c th hin tt nht
bng ng cho ca hnh bnh hnh ca hai lc ny: s tn thnh v s e d. Trong trng hp gi tr
bng s ca n s bng cn bc hai ca tng ca bnh phng ca gi tr bng s ca s tn thnh v e d.
y l n lc p dng nh l Pythagoras cho mt hnh bnh hnh ca cc lc (tuy khng r v sao chng
li vung gc vi nhau) ci l qu m h c th o c, i vi ti dng nh l mt th d khng phi
ca ch ngha phn t nhin m ng l ca mt loi ch ngha t nhin hay ch ngha khoa hc m, ti
tha nhn, cc khoa hc x hi chng c li ch g t n. C th lu rng cc gi thuyt ny kh c
th trnh by dng k thut, trong khi, th d, qui lut tham nhng m tm quan trng ca n c
Friedrich nhn mnh rt thch ng, li c th c trnh by dng .
V nn lch s ca quan im khoa hc ch ngha m cc vn ca l thuyt chnh tr c th c
hiu bng hnh bnh hnh ca cc lc, xem cun sch ca ti, The Open Society and Its Enemies (ti bn
c sa cha), ch thch 2 ca chng 7.

51

21 CI BIN TNG
PHN i li KHNG
TNG
Bt chp nhng lin tng ng ch trch gn vi thut ng k thut, ci bin
[engineering],16 ti s dng thut ng ci bin x hi tng phn m t s p dng
thc tin ca cc kt qu k thut tng phn. Thut ng l hu ch v c nhu cu v mt
thut ng bao ph cc hot ng x hi, t nhn cng nh cng cng, m thc hin
mc tiu hay mc ch no , n s dng mt cch c thc tt c cc tri thc cng
ngh sn c.17 Ci bin x hi tng phn ging cng vic ca k s vt l trong vic coi
cc mc ch l vt qu phm vi cng ngh. (Tt c ci m cng ngh c th ni v cc
mc ch l liu chng c tng thch vi nhau hay khng hoc c th thc hin c
hay khng). Trong kha cnh ny n khc vi ch ngha lch s, ch ngha coi cc mc
ch ca cc hot ng ca con ngi l ph thuc vo cc lc lng lch s v nh th
thuc lnh a ca n.
Ht nh nhim v chnh ca k s l thit k cc my mc v tu sa v bo qun
chng, nhim v ca k s ci bin x hi tng phn l thit k cc nh ch x hi, v ti
t chc v vn hnh cc t chc tn ti ri. Thut ng nh ch x hi c s dng
y theo ngha rt rng, bao gm cc hi ng mang tnh t nhn cng nh cng cng.
Nh th ti s dng n m t mt doanh nghip, bt lun l mt ca hiu nh hay mt
cng ti bo him, v cng nh th mt trng hc, hay mt h thng gio dc, cng an,
hay mt Nh th, hay mt to n. K thut vin hay k s ci bin x hi tng phn tha
nhn rng ch mt thiu s cc nh ch x hi l c thit k mt cch c ch trong
khi tuyt i a s ng l ch mc ln nh kt qu khng c ca cc hnh ng ca
con ngi.18 Nhng d anh ta c th b s thc quan trng ny gy n tng n u, vi
16

Gio s Hayek chng li vic dng thut ng k thut x hi social engineering (theo ngha tng
phn, dn dn, t t) v cng vic k thut in hnh i hi s tp trung mi tri thc lin quan vo mt
ngi duy nht, trong khi in hnh cho mi vn x hi thc s l tri thc cn dng khng th c tp
trung nh vy. (Xem Hayek, Collectivist Economic Planning, 1935, tr. 210). Ti tha nhn rng s thc
ny c tm quan trng cn bn. N c th c trnh by bng mt gi thuyt k thut: Trong phm vi mt
nh chc trch k hoch ho chng ta khng th tp trung tri thc lin quan cho cc nhim v nh tho
mn cc nhu cu c nhn, hay s dng cc k nng v nng lc c chuyn mn ho. (Mt gi thuyt
tng t c th c xut v tnh khng th tp trung ho sng kin lin quan n cc nhim v tng
t). Vic s dng thut ng k thut x hi, ci bin x hi-social engineering by gi c th c bo v
bng cch ch ra rng k s phi s dng tri thc k thut biu hin trong cc gi thuyt ny nhng ci thng
bo cho anh ta v nhng hn ch ca sng kin ring ca anh ta cng nh ca tri thc ring ca anh ta.
Xem c ch thch 43 trang 82 di y.
17

Bao gm, nu c th nhn c, c tri thc lin quan n cc hn ch ca tri thc, nh c gii thch
ch thch trc.
18
Hai quan im - rng cc nh ch x hi hoc l c thit k hoc l chng ch mc ln tng ng
vi cc quan im ca cc nh l thuyt Kh c X hi v cc nh ph phn h, th d, Hume. Nhng

52

t cch mt k thut vin hay k s anh ta s xem xt chng t quan im chc nng hay
cng c.19 Anh ta s thy chng nh cc cng c cho cc mc ch xc nh no , hay
nh c th hon ci phc v cho cc mc ch no ; nh cc my hn l nh cc
sinh vt. iu ny, tt nhin, khng c ngha rng anh ta s b qua nhng khc bit cn
bn gia cc nh ch v cc cng c vt l. Ngc li, k thut vin phi nghin cu
nhng khc bit cng nh nhng s tng t, trnh by kt qu ca mnh dng cc gi
thuyt. V thc vy, khng kh trnh by cc gi thuyt v cc nh ch dng k
thut nh cc th d sau y chng t: Chng ta khng th xy dng cc nh ch hon
ton m bo, tc l, cc nh ch m hot ng ca chng khng ph thuc rt nhiu
vo nhn s: cc nh ch, nhiu nht, c th lm gim s khng chc chn ca yu t
nhn s, bng cch gip nhng ngi lm vic cho cc mc tiu d kin ca cc nh
ch, m thnh cng phn ln ph thuc vo sng kin v hiu bit ring ca h. (Cc
nh ch ging nh cc pho i. Chng phi c thit k kho v c nhng ngi bo
v tho ng).20
Cch tip cn c trng ca k s ci bin t t l th ny. Ngay d l anh ta c l c
th p mt s l tng lin quan n x hi nh mt tng th c th, th d phc li
chung ca x hi- anh ta khng tin vo phng php ti thit k n nh mt tng th. Bt
lun cc mc ch ca anh ta l g, anh ta c t chng bng nhng iu chnh v ti iu
chnh nh, nhng iu chnh c th lin tc c ci thin. Cc mc ch ca anh ta c
th thuc cc loi khc nhau, th d, tch t ca ci hay quyn lc cho cc c nhn no ,
hay cho cc nhm no ; hay phn pht ca ci v quyn lc; hay bo v cc quyn
no ca cc c nhn hay nhm, v. v. Nh th ci bin x hi cng cng hay chnh tr
c th c cc xu hng cc k khc nhau, ton tr cng nh t do. (Cc th v cc chng
trnh t do su rng cho ci cch tng phn c W. Lippmann a ra di tiu The
Agenda of Liberalism Chng trnh ngh s ca Ch ngha t do21). K s ci bin t
t, ging nh Socrates, bit l mnh bit t bao nhiu. Anh ta bit rng chng ta c th
hc ch t cc sai lm ca mnh. Do , anh ta lun tin tng bc mt, cn trng so snh
cc kt qu mong i vi cc kt qu t c, v lun lun coi chng cc hu qu
Hume khng t b quan im chc nng hay cng c ch ngha ca cc nh ch x hi, v ng ni
rng con ngi khng th lm m khng c chng. Lp trng ny c th c trau chut thnh mt gii
thch kiu Darwin v tnh cht cng c ca cc nh ch khng c thit k (th d ngn ng): nu chng
khng c chc nng hu ch no, th chng chng c c hi tn ti. Theo quan im ny, cc nh ch
khng c thit k c th ni ln nh cc h qu khng ch ca cc hnh ng duy l: ht nh mt
ng i c th c hnh thnh m khng c bt k ch no lm vy do ngi dn thy thun tin
s dng mt ng mn c ri (nh Descartes quan st). Hu nh chng cn nhn mnh, tuy vy, rng
cch tip cn k thut l kh c lp vi mi vn v xut x.
19
V cch tip cn chc nng, xem, th d, Anthropology as Basis of Social Science ca B. Malinowski
trong Human Affairs ( ed. Cattel), c bit cc tr. 206 ff. v cc trang 239ff.
20
Th d ny, khng nh rng hiu sut ca cc b my nh ch b hn ch, v rng hot ng ca cc
nh ch ph thuc vo vic cung cp nhn s ph hp, c l c th c so snh vi cc nguyn l ca
nhit ng hc, nh nh lut bo ton nng lng ( dng trong n loi tr kh nng ch to ng c
vnh cu). Vi t cch nh vy, n c th c i snh vi mu toan khoa hc ch ngha khc pht
trin mt php tng t gia khi nim vt l v nng lng v mt s khi nim x hi hc nh quyn lc;
xem, th d, Power (1938) ca Bertrand Russell, tr. 10f., ni loi mu toan khoa hc ch ngha loi ny
c th. Ti khng ngh l im chnh ca Russell - rng cc dng quyn lc khc nhau nh s giu c,
sc mnh tuyn truyn, sc mnh th bo, i khi c th c chuyn i ln nhau - c th c trnh
by dng k thut.
21
W. Lippmann, The Good Society (1937), Ch. XI, cc tr. 203ff. Xem c W. H. Hutt, Plan for
Reconstruction (1943).

53

khng mong mun nhng khng trnh khi ca bt k ci cch no; v anh ta s trnh
tin hnh cc ci cch c phc tp v phm vi lm cho anh ta khng th tch bch cc
nguyn nhn v tc ng, v bit ci g anh ta thc s ang lm.
S my m v vu t t nh vy khng ph hp vi tnh kh chnh tr ca nhiu nh
tch cc ch ngha. Chng trnh ca h, cng c m t nh chng trnh ci bin x
hi- social engineering, c th c gi l ci bin chnh th-holistic hay ci bin
Khng tng- Utopian engineering.
Ci bin x hi chnh th hay Khng tng, ngc vi ci bin x hi t t, chng bao
gi mang tnh t nhn m lun lun mang tnh cng cng. N nhm ti t chc li
ton b x hi ph hp vi mt k hoch hay s xc nh; n nhm ti vic chim
ly cc v tr then cht22 v ti vic m rng quyn lc ca Nh nc cho n khi
Nh nc tr nn gn nh ng nht vi x hi,23 v, hn na, t cc v tr then cht
ny n nhm ti kim sot cc lc lng lch s to hnh cho tng lai ca x hi ang
pht trin: hoc bng cch chn s pht trin ny li, hay bng nhn thy trc din tin
ca n v iu chnh x hi theo n.
C l c th ny sinh cu hi, liu cc cch tip cn tng phn v chnh th c m t
y l khc nhau cn bn, v chng ta khng a ra cc gii hn cho phm vi ca cch
tip cn t t. Nh cch tip cn ny c hiu y, ci cch hin php, th d, ng l
nm trong phm vi ca n; ti cng s chng loi tr kh nng ca mt lot ci cch tng
phn c th do mt xu hng chung gy cm hng, th d, do mt xu hng tin ti s
bnh qun ho ln hn v thu nhp. Theo cch ny, cc phng php t t c th dn n
nhng thay i ca ci thng c gi l cu trc giai cp ca x hi. C th hi, liu
c bt k s khc bit no gia cc loi ci bin tng phn tham vng hn ny v cch
tip cn chnh th hoc Khng tng hay khng? V cu hi ny c th thm ch tr nn
khn thit hn nu chng ta xem xt iu , khi c gng nh gi nhng hu qu kh d
ca ci cch c xut no , k thut vin ci bin tng phn phi n lc nht
c lng cc tc ng ca bt k bin php no ln ton b x hi.
Tr li cu hi ny, ti s khng th vch mt ng ranh gii chnh xc gia hai
phng php, nhng ti s th a ra quan im rt khc nhau m k thut vin chnh th
v tng phn xem xt cng vic ci cch x hi. Cc nh chnh th bc b cch tip cn
tng phn do l qu khim tn. S bc b ca h, tuy vy, khng hon ton hp vi thc
tin ca h; v trong thc tin h lun lun b trt li vo vic p dng hi ba bi v
vng v du cho nhiu tham vng v tn nhn, ci v c bn l mt phng php tng
phn nhng khng c tnh thn trng v t-ph bnh ca n. L do l, trong thc tin,
phng php chnh th ho ra l khng th thc hin c; nhng thay i chnh th
c th lm cng ln bao nhiu, th nhng tc ng tr li khng d kin v phn ln
khng mong i cng ln by nhiu, buc k s chnh th phi dng cch ng bin tng
phn. Thc ra, cch lm ny l c trng cho k hoch ho tp trung hay tp th hn l
cho can thip tng phn thn trng v khim tn hn; v n lin tc dn k s Khng
tng n vic lm cc th m anh ta khng c nh lm; tc l, n dn n hin tng
kht ting v k hoch ho khng c k hoch (unplanned planning). Nh vy s khc
22

Thnh ng ny K. Mannheim thng dng trong cun Man and Society in an Age of Reconstruction ca
ng; xem Ch mc, Index, v th d, cc tr. 269, 295, 320, 381. Cun sch ny trnh by k lng nht mt
chng trnh chnh th v lch s ch ngha m ti c bit v v th c la ra y ph phn.
23
Xem Mannheim, ibid., tr. 337. on ny c trch y hn mc 23, ni n cng c ph phn.
(Xem ch thch 33 tr. 73 di y).

54

bit gia ci bin Khng tng v tng phn ho ra, trong thc tin, l mt s khc bit
khng phi v qui m v phm vi, m v s thn trng v v s chun b sn sng i vi
nhng iu bt ng khng trnh khi. Ta cng c th ni rng, trong thc tin, hai
phng php khc nhau theo cch khc ch khng phi v qui m v phm vi - ngc
vi ci chng ta ch i nu so snh hai hc thuyt lin quan n cc phng php thch
hp v ci cch x hi duy l. Trong hai hc thuyt ny, ti cho rng mt ci ng, trong
khi phng php khc l sai v nht thit dn ti cc sai lm c th sa cha c nhng
trm trng. Trong hai phng php, ti cho rng mt l c th, trong khi phng php
khc n gin khng tn ti: khng th thc hin c.
Mt trong nhng khc bit gia cch tip cn Khng tng hay chnh th v cch tip
cn tng phn v th c th c pht biu theo cch ny: trong khi k s ci bin tng
phn c th tn cng vn ca mnh vi mt u c m v phm vi ca ci cch, nh
chnh th khng th lm iu ny; v anh ta quyt nh trc ri rng mt s ti thit
ton b l c th v cn thit. S thc ny c cc h qu su rng. N lm cho nh Khng
tng c nh kin chng li cc gi thuyt x hi hc nht nh, cc gi thuyt nu ra
cc hn ch i vi kim sot nh ch; th d, gi thuyt c nhc ti trn trong mc
ny, by t tnh bt nh do yu t nhn s, do nhn t con ngi. Bng vic bc b a
priori [mt cch tin nghim] cc gi thuyt nh vy, cch tip cn Khng tng vi
phm cc nguyn l ca phng php khoa hc. Mt mt, cc vn gn vi tnh bt
nh ca nhn t con ngi phi buc nh Khng tng, bt lun anh ta thch n hay
khng, phi th kim sot nhn t con ngi bng cc cng c nh ch, v phi m rng
chng trnh ca mnh sao cho bao trm khng ch bin i x hi, theo k hoch, m
cng c bin i con ngi.24 Vn chnh tr, v vy, l t chc nhng thi thc ca
con ngi theo cch sao cho chng s hng nng lc ca h n cc im chin lc
ng n, v li ton b qu trnh pht trin theo hng mong mun. Dng nh, tut
khi s ch ca nh Khng tng c tin l s thc rng chng trnh ca anh ta bao
hm mt s th nhn tht bi, ngay c trc khi anh ta khi ng n. V n thay i hi
ca anh ta rng chng ta phi xy dng mt x hi mi, ph hp cho cuc sng ca con
ngi, bng i hi rng chng ta phi nho nn con ngi cho ph hp vi x hi mi
ca anh ta. iu ny, r rng, loi b bt k kh nng no kim tra thnh cng hay tht
bi ca x hi mi. V nhng ngi khng thch sng trong x hi mi bng cch h
ch tha nhn rng h vn cha thch hp sng trong ; rng nhng thi thc con
ngi ca h cn c t chc thm. Nhng khng c kh nng kim tra, th mi i
hi, rng mt phng php khoa hc c s dng, u tan bin mt. Cch tip cn
chnh th l khng tng thch vi mt thi khoa hc thc s.
K thut ci bin Khng tng khng phi l mt trong nhng ch chnh ca nghin
cu ny, nhng c hai l do v sao n c xem xt ba mc tip theo, cng vi ch
ngha lch s. Th nht, v di tn k hoch ho tp th (hay tp trung), n l hc thuyt
rt thi thng m t k thut tng phn- piecemeal technology v ci bin tng
phn- piecemeal engineering phi c phn bit r rt. Th hai, v ch ngha Khng
tng khng ch ging ch ngha lch s trong s th ch ca n vi cch tip cn tng
phn, m cng thng thng xuyn hp lc vi h t tng lch s ch ngha.

24

Vn Bin i Con ngi l tiu ca mt chng ca cun sch Man and Society ca K.
Mannheim. Trch dn tip theo l t chng , tr. 199f.

55

22 LIN MINH TI LI
VI CH NGHA
KHNG TNG
Mill nhn ra r rng s i lp gia hai cch tip cn phng php lun m ti gi l
k thut tng phn v ch ngha lch s. ng vit, c hai loi kho st x hi hc.25
loi th nht, cu hi c xut l, th d, tc ng ca vic a ra b
phiu ph thng, trong iu kin hin thi ca x hi s l g? Nhng cng c mt
kho st th hai Trong cu hi, khng phi l tc ng ca mt nguyn nhn
cho trc trong mt trng thi no ca x hi s l g, m l cc nguyn nhn no
gy ra cc Trng thi X hi ni chung?

Xt rng cc Trng thi X hi ca Mill tng ng chnh xc vi ci chng ta gi l

cc giai on lch s, r rng l s phn bit ca ng gia hai loi kho st x hi hc
tng ng vi s phn bit ca chng ta gia cch tip cn k thut tng phn v cch
tip cn ca ch ngha lch s; v iu ny cn hin nhin hn nu chng ta theo st hn
m t ca Mill v loi kho st x hi hc th hai m (di nh hng ca Comte) ng
tuyn b l u vit hn loi th nht, m ng m t nh s dng ci ng gi l phng
php lch s.
Nh c ch ra trc ( cc mc 1, 17 v 18), ch ngha lch s khng i khng
vi ch ngha tch cc. X hi hc lch s ch ngha thm ch c th c din gii nh
mt loi cng ngh c th gip (nh Marx din t) rt ngn v lm nh bt cn au
ca mt giai on lch s. V thc vy, trong m t ca Mill v phng php lch s
chng ta c th thy tng ny c trnh by theo cch rt ging cch ca Marx.26
Phng php c phn tch c im y l ci m theo cc qui lutv
tin b x hi phi c tm ra. Vi s gip ca n chng ta sau ny c th thnh
cng khng ch trong nhn xa vo lch s tng lai ca nhn loi, m c trong xc
nh loi cng c nhn to no c th c s dng y nhanh s pht trin t
nhin chng mc m n c li27 Cc ch dn thc tin nh vy, da trn c s
ca ngnh cao nht ca x hi hc suy on, s to thnh phn cao qu nht v li
ch nht ca Ngh thut Chnh tr.

25

Xem J. S. Mill, Logic, Book VI, ch. X, mc I.

Logic, Book VI, ch. X, mc 8. on tng t ca Marx (c trch mc 17) ly t li ni u ca ln
xut bn u tin ca Capital T bn Lun.
27
Nhn xt ny chng t rng Thuyt V Li ca Mill ngn ng khi nh ngha c li-beneficial nh
ng ngha vi tin b-progressive; tc l, bt chp thuyt tin b ca ng, ng khng tn thnh l
thuyt o c lch s ch ngha (so snh mc 19) nh c pht trin bi Spencer v Engels (v ngy nay
bi C. H. Waddington; xem Science and Ethics ca ng).
26

56

Nh on trch ny cho bit, s khc bit gia cch tip cn ca ti v cch tip cn
lch s ch ngha khng phi trong chng mc m cch trc c tnh k thut m l c
tnh k thut tng phn. Trong chng mc ch ngha lch s c tnh k thut, cch tip cn
ca n khng l tng phn, m l chnh th.
Cch tip cn ca Mill c chng t rt r rng l chnh th khi ng gii thch ng
hiu Trng thi ca X hi (hay giai on lch s) l g: Ci c gi l mt trng thi
ca x hi, ng vit, l trng thi ng thi ca tt c cc s thc hay hin tng x
hi ln hn. Cc th d v nhng s thc ny inter alia [khng k nhng ci khc] l:
Trng thi ca cng nghip, ca ci v phn phi n; x hi phn chia thnh cc giai
cp, v cc quan h ca cc giai cp vi nhau; cc nim tin chung m h nui
dng; hnh thc chnh ph ca h, v ci quan trng hn ca cc lut v tp qun ca
h. Tm li, Mill c trng cc trng thi ca x hi nh sau: Cc trng thi ca x hi
ging nh cc thi k trong c th; chng l tnh trng khng phi trong mt hay vi
c quan hay chc nng, m l ca ton b c th.28
Chnh chnh th lun ny l ci phn bit trit nht ch ngha lch s khi bt k k
thut tng phn no, v l ci lm cho lin minh ca n vi cc loi no ca ci bin
x hi chnh th hay Khng tng l c th.
y chc chn l mt lin minh hi l k; v nh chng ta thy ( mc 15) c mt
xung t rt r rng gia cch tip cn chnh th v cch tip cn ca k s hay k thut
vin x hi, vi iu kin chng ta hiu k thut ci bin x hi l xy dng cc nh ch
x hi theo k hoch. Theo quan im ca ch ngha lch s, cch tip cn lch s ch
ngha chng li bt c loi ci bin x hi no mt cch trit ht nh cch tip cn ca
mt nh kh tng hc i vi cch ca nh o thut lm ma; v vy, cc nh lch s ch
ngha tn cng ci bin x hi (ngay c cch tip cn tng phn) nh Khng tng.29 Bt
chp iu , chng ta thy ch ngha lch s rt thng xuyn lin minh vi ng cc
tng , cc tng in hnh ca ci bin x hi chnh th hay Khng tng, nh
tng v cc bn thit k cho mt trt t mi, hay v k hoch ho tp trung.
Hai i din c trng ca lin minh ny l Plato v Marx. Plato, mt ngi bi quan,
tin rng mi thay i hay hu nh mi thay i - u suy i; y l qui lut ca ng v
pht trin lch s. V vy, k hoch Khng tng ca ng nhm ti chn mi thay i;30
ci ngy nay c th c gi l k hoch tnh. Mt khc, Marx mt ngi lc quan, v
c th (ging Spencer) l mt ngi ng h mt l thuyt o c lch s ch ngha. V
vy, k hoch Khng tng ca ng l mt x hi pht trin hay ng hn l mt x hi
b hm li. ng tin on, v c thc y mt cch tch cc, mt s pht trin t
cc trong mt x hi Khng tng l tng khng bit n s p bc chnh tr hay
kinh t no: nh nc tiu vong, mi ngi hp tc t do theo nng lc ca mnh, v mi
nhu cu u c tho mn.
Yu t mnh nht trong lin minh gia ch ngha lch s v ch ngha Khng tng,
khng nghi ng g, l cch tip cn chnh th l chung cho c hai. Ch ngha lch s quan
tm n pht trin, khng phi pht trin cc kha cnh ca i sng x hi, m l pht
trin x hi nh mt tng th; v ci bin Khng tng cng vy l chnh th. C hai
u b qua mt s thc quan trng s c xc lp mc tip - s thc rng ci tng
28

Mill, ibid., mc 2 (ti nhn mnh).

Xem cc mc 15 n 17; c bit xem Socialism, Utopian and Scientific [Ch ngha x hi, Khng tng
v Khoa hc] ca Engels.
30
Ti tho lun iu ny chi tit trong The Open Society and Its Enemies.
29

57

th theo ngha ny chng bao gi c th l i tng ca kho cu khoa hc. C hai u

khng hi lng vi v vu tng phn v my m tn mn: h mun theo cc phng
php trit hn. V c nh lch s ch ngha ln nh Khng tng dng nh b n
tng, v i khi thm ch b xao xuyn su sc, bi kinh nghim thay i mi trng x
hi (mt kinh nghim thng l khng khip, v i khi c m t nh mt tai ho x
hi). V vy, c hai, h u c hp l ho s thay i ny, mt ngi bng cch tin on
din tin ca pht trin x hi, v ngi khc bng cch khng khng rng phi kim sot
nghim ngt v hon ton s thay i, hoc thm ch phi chn n li hon ton. S kim
sot phi l hon ton, v trong bt k lnh vc no khng c kim sot nh vy ca
i sng x hi, c th c cc lc lng nguy him n np, cc lc lng gy ra nhng
thay i khng lng trc c.
Mt mi lin kt khc gia nh lch s ch ngha v nh Khng tng l c hai u tin
rng cc mc tiu hay mc ch ca h khng phi l chuyn la chn, hay l chuyn
quyt nh o c, m l h c th khm ph ra chng mt cch khoa hc trong phm vi
lnh vc kho cu ca h. (V im ny, h khc vi k thut vin hay k s ci bin tng
phn, ht nh vi k s vt l). C nh lch s ch ngha ln nh Khng tng u tin rng
h c th tm ra cc mc tiu hay mc ch tht ca x hi l g; th d, bng cch xc
nh cc xu hng lch s ca n, hoc bng cch chun on cc nhu cu ca thi i
h. Nh th h d chp nhn mt loi no ca l thuyt o c lch s ch ngha
(xem mc 18). Khng ngu nhin l hu ht cc tc gi, nhng ngi ch trng k
hoch ho Khng tng, u ni vi chng ta rng k hoch ho l n gin khng th
trnh c, v lch s i theo hng ny; v chng ta phi lp k hoch, bt lun mun
hay khng.31
Theo cng phong cch lch s ch ngha, cc tc gi ny qu trch cc i th ca
mnh l lc hu v tinh thn, v tin rng nhim v ch yu ca h l p tan thi quen c
k ca t duy, v tm ra cc cha kho mi cho s hiu bit th gii ang thay i.32 H
khng nh rng khng th nh hng n hay thm ch lm trch i mt cch thnh
cng cc xu hng ca s thay i x hi cho n khi chng ta t b cch tip cn tng
phn, hay tinh thn my m tn mn. Nhng c th nghi ng liu t duy mc k
hoch ho33 mi c g mi m hay khng nh n c cho l, v chnh th lun dng
nh l c trng ca t duy kh c xa, t Plato tr i. ch thn ti tin rng mt l l
bin h kh tt cho quan im rng cch t duy chnh th (d v x hi hay v t
nhin), cn rt xa mi i din cho mt trnh cao hay giai on mi nht v pht trin
ca t duy, m l c trng ca giai on tin-khoa hc.
31

Xem, th d, Man and Society ca K. Mannheim, tr. 6 (v nhiu ch khc), ni ng bo chng ta rng
Chng cn bt k la chn no gia k hoch ho v khng k hoch ho, m ch c s la chn gia
k hoch ho tt v ti m thi; hoc The Planning of Free Societies (1942) ca F. Zweig, tr. 30, ngi
tr li cho cu hi liu mt x hi c k hoch ho hay khng c k hoch ho l c a chung hn
bng cch ni rng cu hi ny khng ny sinh, v n c chiu hng pht trin lch s hin ti tr li
cho chng ta ri.
32
K. Mannheim op. cit. [sch dn], tr. 33; cc trch dn tip theo l ibid [cng t ], tr.7.
33
K. Mannheim, ging nh Comte, phn bit ba mc pht trin ca t duy: (1) th v sai hay khm ph
ngu nhin, (2) pht minh, (3) k hoch ho (ibid. tr. 150f.) ti rt khng tn thnh hc thuyt ca ng, i
vi ti phng php th v sai (1) dng nh ti gn phng php ca khoa hc hn bt k phng php
no ca cc mc khc.- Mt l do thm cho vic coi cch tip cn chnh th l tin-khoa hc l n cha
ng mt yu t ca ch ngha cu ton. Mt khi chng ta nhn ra, tuy vy, rng chng ta khng th to ra
thin ng trn tri t m ch c th ci thin s vic mt cht, chng ta cng phi nhn ra rng chng ta
ch c th ci thin chng tng t mt.

58

23 PH PHN CHNH
TH LUN
Sau khi tit l thin kin ring ca mnh, v phc ho quan im lm c s cho ph
phn ca ti cng nh s i lp gia cch tip cn tng phn v ch ngha lch s v ch
ngha Khng tng, by gi ti bt u cng vic chnh ca mnh, kho st cc hc
thuyt lch s ch ngha. Ti bt u vi mt ph phn ngn gn ca chnh th lun, v
ci ny by gi ho ra l mt trong nhng v tr ct yu ca l thuyt cn tn cng.
C mt s m h c bn trong vic s dng t ton b-whole trong vn khoa chnh
th lun. N c dng biu th (a) tng th (totality) tt c cc tnh cht hay kha
cnh ca mt s vt, v c bit tng tt c cc quan h tn ti gia cc thnh t ca n,
v (b) cc tnh cht hay kha cnh c bit nht nh ca s vt c ni n, c th l
nhng ci lm cho n hin ra nh mt cu trc c t chc thay v l mt ng n
thun. Ci ton b theo ngha (b) c lm thnh i tng nghin cu khoa hc, c
bit bi ci gi l trng phi tm l hc Gestalt*; v thc ra chng c l do v sao chng
ta li khng nghin cu cc kha cnh nh vy nh cc s u n ca cu trc (th d,
tnh i xng) c th thy trong cc s vt nht nh nh cc sinh vt, hay cc trng
in, hay cc my mc. C th ni v cc th c cc cu trc nh vy, nh l thuyt
Gestalt din t, rng chng l nhiu hn tng gp nhiu hn tng n thun ca thnh
phn ca chng.
Bt k th d no ca l thuyt Gestalt c th c dng chng t rng nhng ci
ton b theo ngha (b) l rt khc nhng ci ton b theo ngha (a). Nu, cng vi cc nh
l thuyt Gestalt, chng ta suy xt th mt giai iu l nhiu hn tp hp hay trnh t n
thun ca cc m m chng ta chn ra xem xt. N l mt kha cnh c th phn bit
r rng khi cc kha cnh khc, nh cao tuyt i ca m u tin ca cc m ny,
hay cng trung bnh tuyt i ca chng. V cn c cc kha cnh Gestalt khc thm
ch tru tng hn cc kha cnh ca giai iu, th d, nhp iu; v xem xt nhp iu
chng ta b qua ngay c cao tng i, ci l quan trng vi giai iu. Bi l chn lc
nh vy, nghin cu v mt Gestalt, v cng vi n, v bt k ci ton b theo ngha (b)
no, l khc bit r rng vi nghin cu ci tng th, tc l, ci ton b theo ngha (a).
Cho nn s thc l nhng ci ton b theo ngha (b) c th c nghin cu mt cch
khoa hc khng c vin dn n nhm bin h cho i hi hon ton khc rng nhng
ci ton b theo ngha (a) c th c nghin cu cng th. i hi sau phi b bc b.
Nu chng ta mun nghin cu mt s vt, chng ta nht thit phi chn ra cc kha cnh
nht nh ca n. L khng th i vi chng ta quan st hay m t ton b mt ming
ca th gii hay ca t nhin; thc ra, ngay c ton b mt ming nh nht cng chng
th c m t nh vy, v mi m t nht thit phi mang tnh chn lc.34 Thm ch c
*

Gestalt ting c c ngha l dng, hnh.

H. Gomperz, Weltanschauungslebre, II/I (1908), tr. 63, ch ra rng mt mu ca th gii, th d nh s
v cnh bc dc ca mt con s, c th c m t bng cc tuyn b rt khc nhau nh sau, mi tuyn b
tng ng vi mt kha cnh ca n: Con chim ny ang bay! Mt con s bay ln! - Nhn xem, c
mt con vt y. C ci g chuyn ng y. Nng lng c chuyn i y. y khng
34

59

th ni rng nhng ci ton b theo ngha (a) chng bao gi c th l i tng ca bt

k hot ng khoa hc hay hot ng khc no. Nu ly mt sinh vt v vn chuyn n
sang mt ch khc, sau ta quan h vi n nh vi mt c th sng, b qua nhiu kha
cnh khc ca n. Nu chng ta git n, th chng ta hu hoi cc tnh cht nht nh
ca n, nhng chng bao gi tt c. Thc ra, c l chng ta khng th ph hu tng th
ca cc tnh cht ca n v ca tt c cc mi quan h ni ti gia cc thnh phn ca n,
ngay c nu chng ta p nt hay t chy n.
Nhng s thc rng nhng ci ton th theo ngha tng th khng th l i tng
nghin cu khoa hc, hay ca bt k hot ng no khc nh iu khin hay ti xy
dng, dng nh tut khi s ch ca cc nh chnh th lun, ngay c nhng ngi
trong s h nhng ngi tha nhn, nh mt qui tc, rng khoa hc mang tnh chn lc.35
H khng nghi ng kh nng hiu bit khoa hc v nhng ci ton b x hi (theo ngha
tng th) v h da vo tin l ca tm l hc Gestalt. V h tin l s khc bit gia cch
tip cn Gestalt v s nghin cu nhng ci ton b x hi (social wholes) theo ngha (a),
bao hm cu trc ca tt c cc s kin x hi v lch s ca mt thi i, da ch n
thun vo s thc rng mt Gestalt c th c lnh hi bng cm nhn trc gic trc
tip, cn nhng ci ton b x hi l qu phc tp thong nhn l c th hiu c,
cho nn chng ch c th c lnh hi t t sau suy ngh ko di, trong mi yu t
c ghi chp, so snh, v kt hp.36 Tm li, cc nh chnh th lun khng thy,
rng cm nhn Gestalt n gin chng dnh dng g n nhng ci ton b theo ngha (a)
c, rng mi s hiu bit, bt lun trc gic hay tn mn, u phi c cc kha cnh tru
tng, v rng chng ta chng bao gi c th lnh hi cu trc c th ca bn thn thc
ti x hi.37 Do b qua im ny, h khng khng rng phi b sung nghin cu chi tit
vn vt ca cc chuyn gia bng mt phng php tch hp hay tng hp hng ti
xy dng li ton b qu trnh; v h khng nh rng x hi hc s tip tc b qua vn
cn bn chng no cc chuyn gia t chi xem xt cc vn ca h nh mt tng
th.38 Nhng phng php chnh th lun ny nht thit ch n thun l mt chng
trnh. Chng bao gi h nu ra c mt th d v m t khoa hc ca mt tnh trng x
hi ton b, c th. V n khng th c trch dn, v trong mi trng hp nh vy c
th lun d ch ra cc kha cnh b b qua; cc kha cnh tuy th li c th l quan
trng nht trong bi cnh khc no .
phi l mt trng hp v chuyn ng vnh cu. Con vt ng thng b hong s! R rng l chng
bao gi c th l nhim v ca khoa hc i hon tt mt danh mc nh vy, mt danh mc nht thit l v
tn. F. A. von Hayek, trong Ethics, vol. LIV (1943), ch thch 5, phc ho mt ph phn ch ngha lch s
rt ging vi ph phn c xut y trong vn bn.
35

K. Mannheim (op.cit., tr. 167) m t khoa hc chn lc hay tru tng nh mt giai on qua mi
khoa hc phn u cho s chnh xc u phi tri qua.
36
Vi ba trch dn tip theo hy so snh vi Mannheim, op.cit., tr. 184; xem c tr. 170, ch thch, v tr.
230.
37
Ibid., tr. 230. Hc thuyt rng chng ta c th nhn c mt loi hiu bit c th v bn thn thc ti
c bit k nh mt phn ca ci c th c m t v mt k thut nh ch ngha thn b; v s h ht
cho nhng ci ton bcng th.
38
Xem op. cit., th d, cc tr. 26 v 32. Ph phn thuyt chnh th ca ti khng c ngha rng ti phn i
li yu cu khn thit cho s hp tc gia cc ngnh khoa hc khc nhau. c bit khi chng ta i mt vi
mt vn tng phn xc nh c th c y mnh bi s hp tc nh vy, chng ai i m c chng li
vic . Nhng y l chuyn rt khc vi k hoch lnh hi nhng ci ton b c th bng mt phng
php tng hp c h thng, hay ci g thuc loi y.

60

Th m cc nh chnh th lun khng ch c k hoch nghin cu ton b x hi bng

mt phng php khng th dng c, m h cng c k hoch iu khin v ti kin
thit x hi ca chng ta nh mt tng th. H tin tri rng quyn lc Nh nc nht
thit tng ln cho n khi Nh nc tr nn gn ng nht vi x hi.39 Trc gic c
on ny by t l r. N l trc gic ton tr.40 Tuy nhin, ngoi vic truyn t trc
gic ny, li tin tri cn c ngha g? Thut ng x hi, tt nhin, bao gm mi quan h
x hi, k c mi quan h c nhn; cc quan h ca b m i vi a con cng nh cc
quan h ca vin chc lo phc li tr em i vi mi ngi trong hai m con. V nhiu l
do nn hon ton khng th kim sot c tt c, hay gn nh tt c, cc mi quan h
ny; ngay ch v mi l do l mi s kim sot mi i vi cc quan h x hi chng ta li
to ra mt lot cc quan h x hi mi cn phi kim sot. Tm li, tnh khng th ny l
tnh bt kh logic.41 (N lc ny dn ti mt s hi qui [quay lui] v tn; tnh hnh ging
nh th nghin cu ton b x hi - vic phi bao hm c chnh nghin cu y). Th
nhng khng c nghi ng g l cc nh Khng tng c k hoch, chnh xc hn, i th
ci khng th; v h bo chng ta, bn cnh cc th khc, rng thm ch c th nho nn
s giao thip c nhn theo mt cch thc t hn.42 (Tt nhin, chng ai nghi ng l
nhng ci ton b theo ngha (b) c th c nho nn hay kim sot hay thm ch to ra,
ngc vi nhng ci ton b theo ngha (a); chng ta c th to ra mt giai iu; song
iu ny chng lin quan g n cc m c kim sot ton b Khng tng c).
Ngn y v ch ngha Khng tng. Trong chng mc lin quan n ch ngha lch s,
tnh hnh cng tuyt vng nh vy. Cc nh chnh th lch s ch ngha thng qu
quyt, bng n , rng phng php lch s l tho ng cho nghin cu ci ton b theo
ngha tng th.43 Nhng khng nh ny da vo mt s hiu lm. N l kt qu ca s
kt hp mt nim tin ng n rng s hc, ngc vi cc khoa hc l thuyt, quan tm
n cc s kin c th ring l v cc c nhn ring r hn l n cc qui lut chung tru
tng, vi mt nim tin sai lm rng cc c th c th c th c ng nht vi nhng
ci ton b theo ngha (a). Nhng chng khng th; v s hc, ging nh bt k loi kho
st khc no, ch c th cp n cc kha cnh c la chn ca i tng m n
quan tm. Sai lm i tin l c mt s hc theo ngha chnh th, mt s hc v cc Trng
thi ca X hi biu hin ci ton b ca c th x hi hay tt c cc s kin x hi v
lch s ca mt thi i. tng ny xut pht t mt quan nim trc gic v lch s
ca nhn loi nh mt dng khng l v ton din ca s pht trin. Song mt lch s
nh vy khng th c vit. Mi lch s thnh vn u l lch s v mt kha cnh hp
no ca s pht trin tng th ny, v du sao cng ch l lch s rt khng y
ngay c ca kha cnh khng y c bit c la ra ny.
Cc xu hng chnh th ca ch ngha Khng tng v ch ngha lch s thng nht
trong tuyn b c trng sau:

39

Xem op. cit., tr. 337; v ch thch 17 tr. 62 trn.

Cch trnh by c trch l gn ng nht vi cch trnh by ca C. Schmitt.
41
Cc nh chnh th lun hi vng l c cch thot khi kh khn ny bng cch t chi tnh hp l ca
logic m, h ngh, c thay th bi bin chng. Ti th chn ng li ny trong What is
Dialectic?, Mind, vol. 49 N. S., tr. 303ff.
42
Xem K. Mannheim, op. cit., tr. 202. C th lu rng mt thuyt chnh th tm l hc l rt thi thng
hin nay vi cc nh l thuyt gio dc.
43
Hc thuyt rng lch s cp n ci ton b c th ring l, c th l cc c nhn, s kin hay thi
i, c bit c Troeltsch tuyn truyn. S ng n ca n lin tc c Mannheim gi thit.
40

61

Chng ta chng bao gi phi dng ln v iu khin ton b h thng ca t

nhin mt cch y nh chng ta buc phi lm hin nay vi x hi ca mnh, v
v th chng ta chng bao gi phi o su vo lch s v cu trc ca cc th
gii c th ca t nhin. Nhn loi hng ti iu tit ton b cuc sng x hi ca
n du cho n chng bao gi th m nhn to ra mt t nhin th hai44

Tuyn b ny minh ho nim tin sai lm rng nu chng ta mun, nh cc nh chnh th

lun, cp ton b h thng t nhin mt cch y , s hu ch i chp nhn
phng php lch s. Nhng cc khoa hc t nhin, nh a cht hc, chp nhn phng
php ny cn xa mi thu hiu ton b h thng ch ca h. Tuyn b ny cng
minh ho quan im sai lm rng c th dng ln hay iu khin hay iu tit ci
ton b theo ngha (a). Rng chng ta chng bao gi phi dng ln v iu khin ton b
h thng t nhin chc chn l ng, n gin v chng ta thm ch khng th dng ln
v iu khin mt ming duy nht ca mt b my vt l trong ci ton b ca n.
Nhng vic nh vy khng th lm c. Chng l cc m c Khng tng, hay c l
l nhng s hiu lm. V i bo chng ta rng ngy nay chng ta buc phi lm mt vic
bt kh thi v mt logic, c th l dng ln v iu khin ton b h thng x hi, v i
iu tit ton b cuc sng x hi, ch l mt mu toan in hnh e do chng ta vi
cc lc lng lch s v nhng pht trin sp xy ra nhng ci lm cho k hoch ho
Khng tng l khng trnh khi.
Ngu nhin, tuyn b c trch dn l mt s th nhn l th v s thc rt quan trng
rng khng c s tng t vt l ca k thut ci bin chnh th hay ca khoa hc tng
ng. Theo ui s tng t gia khoa hc t nhin v x hi v th chc chn l hu ch
lm r vn y.
a v logic ca chnh th lun l th y: tng m chng ta c c v xy dng
mt x hi mi trn .
C th thm mt nhn xt ph phn v nhng ci ton b theo ngha (b), m ti tha
nhn c a v khoa hc. Chng cn rt li bt k th g ti ni, ti phi ch ra s tm
thng cng nh tnh m h ca tuyn b rng ci ton b l nhiu hn tng ca cc
phn ca n, mt iu him khi ngi ta nhn ra. Ngay c ba qu to trn mt chic a
l nhiu hn tng n thun, trong chng mc l phi c cc quan h no gia
chng (qu ln nht c th hoc khng nm gia hai qu kia, v. v.): cc quan h khng
c suy din ra t s thc l c ba qu to, v l ci c th c nghin cu mt cch
khoa hc. Cng th, s i lp gia cch tip cn nguyn t v Gestalt c qung co
nhiu l hon ton v cn c, ch t trong chng mc lin quan n vt l nguyn t: v
vt l nguyn t khng n thun ly tng ca cc ht c bn ca n, m n nghin cu
cc h thng ht t quan im lin quan mt cch xc nh nht vi ci ton b theo
ngha (b).45
Ci m hu ht cc nh l thuyt Gestalt hin nhin mun khng nh l s tn ti hai
loi ca cc th, cc ng trong chng ta khng th thy r bt k trt t no, v
nhng ci ton b, trong mt trt t hay mt i xng hay mt s u n hay mt
44

K. Mannheim, op. cit., tr. 175 f. (ti nhn mnh).

Xem, th d, nguyn l loi tr Pauli.- i vi nh khoa hc x hi, cc tng nh cnh tranh hay phn
cng lao ng phi l r l cch tip cn nguyn t hay c nhn ch ngha chng bng cch no ngn
chng ta khi s nhn ra rng mi c nhn tng tc vi tt c nhng ngi khc. (Trong tm l hc tnh
hnh li khc, v thuyt nguyn t dng nh khng thch hp y- bt chp nhiu n lc th p dng
n).

45

62

h thng hay mt k hoch cu trc c th c tm thy. Nh th, mt cu nh Cc c

th l ton b bn thn n rt gn thnh s tm thng rng, trong mt c th, chng ta
c th phn bit trt t no . V li, mt ci gi l ng, nh mt qui tc, cng c mt
kha cnh Gestalt nh th d c nhc n nhiu v trng in. (Hy xem cch u n
theo p sut tng ln trong mt ng ). Nh vy s phn bit khng ch l tm
thng, m l cc k m h; v khng th p dng cho cc loi khc nhau ca cc s vt,
m ch cho cc kha cnh khc nhau ca cng th.

24 L THUYT CHNH
TH V TH NGHIM
X HI
T duy chnh th lun l c bit c hi trong nh hng ca n ln l thuyt lch s ch
ngha v cc th nghim x hi (c trnh by chi tit mc 2 trn). Mc d k thut
vin ci bin tng phn s ng vi quan im chnh th rng cc th nghim x hi
ton din hay chnh th, nu ni chung c th, l cc k khng thch hp cho cc mc
ch khoa hc, anh ta s dt khot phn i gi thit, chung cho c ch ngha lch s v
ch ngha Khng tng, rng cc th nghim x hi, l thc tin, phi mang tnh cht
ca cc n lc Khng tng khi t chc li ton b x hi.
Tin li bt u s ph phn ca chng ta vi vic tho lun mt phn i rt hin
nhin i vi chng trnh Khng tng, c th l chng ta khng c tri thc thc
nghim cn thit cho mt nhim v nh vy. Cc bn thit k ca k s vt l da trn k
thut thc nghim; tt c cc nguyn l to c s cho cc hot ng ca anh ta c kim
chng bng cc thc nghim. Nhng cc bn thit k chnh th lun ca k s x hi
khng da trn bt k kinh nghim thc tin c th so snh no. Nh vy s tng t
c cho l c gia k thut vt l v k thut ci bin x hi chnh th b sp ; k hoch
ho chnh th c coi mt cch ng n l Khng tng, v cc k hoch ca n n
gin chng h c c s khoa hc.
i mt vi ph phn ny, k s Khng tng chc c l tha nhn nhu cu v kinh
nghim thc tin, v v k thut th nghim. Nhng anh ta s cho l chng ta s chng bao
gi bit bt k th g v nhng vn ny nu chng ta lng l lm cc th nghim x
hi, hay k thut ci bin chnh th, ci theo quan im ca anh ta cng th. Chng ta phi
bt u, anh ta l l, s dng bt lun tri thc no chng ta c, d nhiu hay t. Nu chng
ta c tri thc no v thit k my bay ngy nay, ch l v ngi i tin phong no
, ngi khng c tri thc ny, dm thit k mt my bay v mang n ra th. Nh
vy nh Khng tng thm ch c th cho rng phng php chnh th lun m anh ta
ch trng chng l g khc m l phng php thc nghim p dng cho x hi. V anh
ta, cng nh nh lch s ch ngha, cho rng cc th nghim qui m nh, nh mt th
nghim trong ch ngha x hi thc hin mt nh my hay mt lng hay thm ch
63

mt qun huyn, s l hon ton khng thuyt phc; cc th nghim Robinson-Crusoe

bit lp nh vy khng ni cho chng ta iu g v i sng x hi hin i trong X hi
V i. H thm ch xng ng ci tn nho Khng tng theo ngha (Marxist) trong
t ny hm b qua cc xu hng lch s. (n trong trng hp ny c th l xu
hng ti mt s ph thuc ln nhau ngy cng tng ca i sng x hi b b qua).
Chng ta thy rng ch ngha Khng tng v ch ngha lch s thng nht trong quan
im l mt th nghim x hi (nu c ci nh vy) c th c gi tr ch nu c tin
hnh mt qui m chnh th. nh kin ph bin rng ri ny ko theo nim tin rng
chng ta him khi v th tin hnh cc th nghim c k hoch ho trong lnh
vc x hi, v rng, gii thch cc kt qu ca cc th nghim ngu nhin c
tin hnh n by gi trong lnh vc ny, chng ta phi quay v lch s.46
Ti c hai l do phn i quan im ny: (a) rng n b qua cc th nghim tng phn
nhng ci l c bn cho mi tri thc x hi, tin-khoa hc cng nh khoa hc; (b) rng
cc th nghim chnh th chc c l khng ng gp nhiu cho tri thc thc nghim ca
chng ta; v rng chng c th c gi l cc th nghim ch theo ngha trong t
ny l ng ngha vi mt hnh ng m kt qu ca n l khng chc chn, nhng
khng phi theo ngha trong t ny c dng ch mt phng tin thu nhn tri
thc, bng so snh cc kt qu nhn c vi cc kt qu d kin.
Lin quan n (a) c th ch ra rng quan nim chnh th v cc th nghim x hi b
mc khng gii thch s thc rng chng ta c rt nhiu tri thc thc nghim v i sng
x hi. C s khc bit gia mt mt nh doanh nghip, hay nh t chc, hay chnh tr
gia, hay tng c kinh nghim v ngi khng c kinh nghim. l mt s khc bit
v kinh nghim x hi ca h; v v kinh nghim nhn c khng ch qua quan st, hay
bng suy ngm ci m h quan st, m bng n lc t c mc tiu thc tin no
. Phi tha nhn rng tri thc thu nhn c bng cch ny thng l loi tin-khoa
hc, v v th ging tri thc nhn c bng quan st ngu nhin hn l tri thc nhn
c bng cc th nghim khoa hc c thit k cn thn; nhng y khng phi l l do
t chi rng tri thc c ni n da trn th nghim hn l ch trn quan st. Mt
ngi bn tp phm m mt ca hiu mi l tin hnh mt th nghim x hi; v ngay c
mt ngi ng xp hng trc mt nh ht nhn c hiu bit k thut thc nghim m
anh ta c th s dng bng cch t v trc vo ln sau, y li l mt th nghim x
hi. V chng ta khng c qun rng ch cc th nghim thc tin dy nhng ngi
mua v nhng ngi bn bi hc trn th trng rng gi chc s gim vi tng cung, v
ln vi tng cu.
Cc th d v cc th nghim tng phn trn mt qui m ln hn mt cht c th l
quyt nh ca mt nh c quyn thay i gi sn phm ca mnh; vic mt cng ti
bo him t nhn hay cng cng a ra mt loi bo him y t hay bo him vic lm
mi; hoc vic a ra mt loi thu doanh thu mi, hay mt chnh sch chin u vi
cc chu k thng mi. Tt c cc th nghim ny u c tin hnh vi cc mc ch
thc tin hn l khoa hc. Ngoi ra, cc th nghim c mt s hng ln hn tin hnh
vi mc ch c tnh ton tng hiu bit ca h v th trng (tt nhin, nhm tng li

46

y cng l quan im ca Mill khi ng ni v cc th nghim x hi rng chng ta r rng chng bao
gi c nng lc th bt c th g. Chng ta ch c th theo di nhng ci m t nhin to ra,nhng s
tip din ca cc hin tng c ghi trong lch s (Xem Logic, Book VI, ch. VII, mc 2).

64

nhun cc giai on sau) hn l vi mc ch tng li nhun ca h ngay lp tc.47

Tnh hnh l rt ging tnh trng ca k s vt l v cc phng php tin-khoa hc m
theo hiu bit k thut ca chng ta trong cc vn nh xy dng tu thu hay ngh
thut hng hi thu nhn c u tin. Dng nh chng c l do v sao cc phng
php ny li khng c ci thin, v cui cng c thay th bng mt cng ngh mang
tnh khoa hc hn; tc l, bi mt cch tip cn c h thng hn theo cng hng, da
trn t duy ph phn cng nh trn th nghim.
Theo quan im tng phn ny, khng c s phn chia rch ri gia cc cch tip cn
th nghim tin-khoa hc v khoa hc, d l vic p dng c thc cc phng php
ngy cng khoa hc hn, tc l, cc phng php ph phn l rt quan trng. C hai cch
tip cn c th c din t, v c bn, nh s dng phng php th v sai. Chng ta
th, tc l, chng ta khng ch ghi chp mt s quan st, m l thc hin cc n lc
gii quyt mt s vn t nhiu thc tin v xc nh. V chng ta tin b nu, v ch
nu, chng ta sn sng hc t sai lm ca mnh: nhn ra cc sai lm ca chng ta v s
dng chng mt cch ph phn thay cho kin tr vi chng mt cch gio iu. Mc d
phn tch ny c th c v tm thng, n m t, ti tin, phng php ca tt c cc khoa
hc thc nghim. Chng ta sn sng cng thoi mi hn v c thc hn gnh chu
ri ro ca th nghim, v theo di cc sai lm m chng ta lun mc phi cng ph phn
hn, th phng php ny cng mang tnh khoa hc hn. V cng thc ny bao ph
khng ch phng php th nghim, m c mi quan h gia l thuyt v th nghim na.
Mi l thuyt u l s th nghim; chng l cc gi thuyt mang tnh thm d, th
xem chng c hot ng khng; v mi s cng c thc nghim u n gin l kt qu
ca cc kim nghim c tin hnh theo tinh thn ph phn, mt n lc tm ra cc l
thuyt ca chng ta sai u.48
i vi k thut vin hay k s ci bin tng phn cc quan im ny c ngha, nu anh
ta mun a ra cc phng php khoa hc vo nghin cu x hi v vo hot ng chnh
tr, rng ci cn n nht l vic chp nhn mt thi ph phn, v s tha nhn rng
khng ch th m c sai cng l cn thit. V anh ta phi hc khng ch ch i cc sai
lm, m phi tm ra chng mt cch c thc. Tt c chng ta u c mt im yu phi
khoa hc l lun ngh mnh l ng, v nhc im ny hnh nh l c bit ph bin
gia cc chnh tr gia chuyn nghip v nghip d. Nhng cch duy nht p dng ci
g ging phng php khoa hc trong hot ng chnh tr l tin ln vi gi thit rng
khng th c nc i chnh tr no li khng c nhng bt li, khng c cc h qu khng
mong mun. Coi chng cc sai lm ny, tm ra chng, v a chng ra cng khai, phn
tch chng, v hc t chng, y l ci mt chnh tr gia khoa hc cng nh nh khoa hc
chnh tr phi lm. Phng php khoa hc trong hot ng chnh tr c ngha rng ngh
thut kho lo v thuyt phc bn thn chng ta rng chng ta chng phm sai lm
no, v b qua chng, v che giu chng, v v li cho ngi khc v chng, c
47

Sidney v Beatrice Webb, Methods of Social Study (1932), cc tr. 221 ff., cho cc th d tng t v cc
th nghim x hi. Tuy vy, h khng phn bit gia hai loi th nghim c gi l tng phn v chnh
th, mc d ph phn ca h v phng php th nghim (xem tr. 226, s trn ln cc tc ng) l c
bit thuyt phc nh mt ph phn cc th nghim chnh th (m dng nh h ngng m). V li, ph
phn ca h li kt hp vi l l v tnh hay bin i m ti coi l khng hp l; xem mc 25 di y.
48
Mt phn tch y hn v cc phng php ca vt l hc hin i theo ng hng c phc ho
y c th thy trong cun Logic of Scientific Discovery ca ti; xem c What is Dialectic? Mind, vol. 49,
cc tr. 403 ff. Xem c, th d, Tinbergen, Statistical Testing of Business Cycle Theories, vol. II, tr. 21: Xy
dng mt m hnh l vn v th v sai, v.v.

65

thay th bng ngh thut ti ba v chp nhn trch nhim v chng, v th hc t chng,
v v p dng tri thc ny sao cho chng ta c th trnh chng trong tng lai.
By gi chng ta quay sang im (b), ph phn quan im l chng ta c th hc t
cc th nghim chnh th, hay chnh xc hn, t cc bin php c thc hin qui m
gn ti m c chnh th (v cc th nghim chnh th theo ngha trit rng chng t
chc li ton b x hi l khng th c c v mt logic, nh ti ch ra mc
trc). im ch yu ca chng ta rt n gin: kh kh c kh nng t ph phn cc
sai lm ring ca mnh, nhng chc hn gn nh khng th i vi chng ta gi mt
thi ph phn i vi cc hnh ng ca chng ta, cc hnh ng dnh dng n cuc
sng ca nhiu ngi. Ni cch khc, rt kh hc t cc sai lm rt ln.
L do ca iu ny gm hai loi: k thut cng nh o c. V qu nhiu vic xy ra
ng thi, l khng th ni bin php c bit no chu trch nhim v bt k kt qu
no; hay ng hn, nu chng ta qui mt kt qu no cho mt bin php no y, th
chng ta c th lm vy ch trn c s ca hiu bit l thuyt no c t trc, ch
khng t th nghim chnh th c ni n. Th nghim ny khng gip chng ta qui cc
kt qu c bit cho cc bin php c bit; tt c ci chng ta c th lm l qui ton b kt
qu cho n; v iu ny c th c ngha bt k l g, chc chn rt kh nh gi. Ngay
c cc n lc ln nht m bo mt tuyn b c nhiu thng tin, c lp, v ph phn
v cc kt qu ny cng khng chc thnh cng. Nhng xc sut cho cc n lc nh
vy c tin hnh l nh, c th b qua; ngc li, rt c th l s khng c tho lun
t do v k hoch chnh th v cc h qu ca n. L do l mi n lc k hoch ho qui
m rt ln u l mt nhim v, ni nh i, chc hn gy ra bt tin ng k cho nhiu
ngi, v trong mt thi gian kh di. Do lun lun c mt xu hng phn i k
hoch, v than phin v n. K s Khng tng phi ngoi tai nhiu trong s nhng
phn nn ny nu anh ta ni chung mun t ti ch no ; thc ra, s l mt phn cng
vic ca anh ta l i chn nhng s phn i phi l. Nhng cng vi chng anh ta chc
hn cng chn c nhng ph phn hp l. V n thun s thc l phi kim ch s by
t bt mn lm gim ngay c s by t tho mn nhit tnh nht thnh v ngha. Nh vy
s kh tm hiu chc chn cc s thc, tc l hu qu ca k hoch ln mi cng dn;
v khng c cc s thc ny th ph phn mang tnh khoa hc l khng th c.
Nhng kt hp k hoch ho chnh th v cc phng php khoa hc cn gp kh khn
c bn hn so vi c biu l ra cho n y. Nh k hoch chnh th b qua s thc
rng d tp trung quyn lc nhng khng th tp trung tt c tri thc nm ri rc trong
u ca nhiu c nhn, v s tp trung ho chng l cn thit cho vic nm quyn lc tp
trung mt cch khn kho.49 Nhng s thc ny c cc h qu su rng. Khng c kh
nng bit chc c ci g trong u ca rt nhiu c nhn, anh ta hn phi c n gin ho
cc vn ca mnh bng cch loi b nhng s khc bit ring: anh ta phi c kim sot
v rp khun cc li ch v nim tin bng gio dc v tuyn truyn.50 Nhng n lc ny

49

Nhn xt rng khng th c tri thc cn cho k hoch ho tp trung vo bt k mt ci u duy nht no
l ca Hayek; xem Collectivist Economic Planning, tr. 210. (Xem c ch thch 10 tr. 58 trn).
50

Mt trong cc im mu cht ca l thuyt chnh tr ca Spinoza l tnh khng th bit v khng th kim
sot ci m ngi khc ngh. ng nh ngha s chuyn ch nh mu toan t ci khng th lm c,
v hnh s quyn lc ni n khng th dng c. Phi nh rng, Spinoza khng chnh xc l mt
ngi theo t tng t do; ng khng tin vo s kim sot ch nh ca quyn lc, m ngh rng mt hong
t c quyn hnh s quyn lc ca mnh ti gii hn thc t ca n. Th m ci Spinoza gi l chuyn

66

 s dng quyn lc trn tinh thn phi ph hu kh nng cui cng ca vic tm ra ci
ngi dn thc s suy ngh, v n r rng khng tng hp vi biu l t do ca t duy,
c bit ca t duy ph phn. Cui cng, n phi ph hu tri thc; v s tng thm v
quyn lc cng ln bao nhiu, th s mt mt tri thc cng nhiu by nhiu. (Quyn lc
chnh tr v tri thc x hi nh vy c th c pht hin ra l b cho nhau, dng t
theo ngha ca Bohr. V c th thm ch ho ra l minh ho r duy nht ca thut ng
kh hiu nhng thi thng ny).51
Tt c nhng nhn xt ny hn ch vn phng php khoa hc. Chng ngm tha
nhn gi thit khng l rng chng ta chng cn nghi ng lng nhn t c bn ca k s
Khng tng k hoch ho, ngi c ban cho quyn lc ch t gn bng quyn lc c
ti. Tawney kt thc mt tho lun v Luther v thi i ca ng vi cc t sau: Thi i
ca Machiavelli v Henry VIII, nghi ng v s tn ti ca nhng con k ln v k ging,
tm thy thc n cho tnh c tin ca n trong th phng cc con qui vt, Hong t
sng bi Tri, him c .52 y thay cc t nhng con k ln v k ging bng
Hong t sng bi Tri; thay hai tn bng tn ca nhng th tng ng hin i hin
nhin hn ca chng, v thay Hong t sng bi Tri bng nh chc trch k hoch
ho nhn t: v chng ta c mt m t v tnh c tin ca ring thi i chng ta. Tnh c
tin ny s khng b tn cng y; nhng c th nhn xt rng, gi thit lng nhn t v
gii hn v khng thay i ca cc nh k hoch hng mnh, phn tch ca chng ta vn
chng t rng c th chng bao gi h bit c liu cc kt qu ca cc bin php ca
h c ph hp vi cc nh tt lnh ca h hay khng.
Ti khng tin rng c th a ra bt k ph phn tng ng no chng phng php
tng phn. Phng php ny c th c dng, c bit hn, tm ra, v u tranh chng
li, cc tai ho ln nht v khn cp nht ca x hi, hn l tm ra, v u tranh cho,
ci tt cui cng no (nh cc nh chnh th lun c thin hng lm). Nhng mt
cuc chin c h thng chng li nhng ci xu xc nh, chng li cc hnh thc xc
nh ca bt cng hay bc lt, v s au kh c th trnh c nh i ngho hay tht
nghip, l mt vic rt khc vi n lc thc hin mt bn thit k l tng xa vi v x
hi. Thnh cng hay tht bi c nh gi d hn, v chng c l do c hu v sao
phng php ny li dn n s tch t quyn lc, v n nn ph phn. Hn na, mt
cuc u tranh nh vy chng li nhng ci xu xc nh v cc mi nguy him c th
chc c nhiu kh nng tm c s ng h ca i a s hn l mt cuc chin u cho
s thit lp mt iu Khng tng, d l tng nh c th t ra vi cc nh k hoch.
iu ny c l c th soi nh sng no ln s thc l trong cc nc dn ch t bo v
chng li s xm lc, c th nhn c s ng h thch ng cho cc bin php su rng
cn thit (chng thm ch c th mang tnh cht ca k hoch ho chnh th) m khng
cm ph phn cng khai, trong khi cc nc chun b cho mt cuc tn cng hay tin

ch, v tuyn b l n mu thun vi l tr, li c cc nh k hoch ho chnh th coi mt cch ngy th

nh mt vn khoa hc, vn bin i con ngi.
51
Niels Bohr gi hai cch tip cn l b nhau nu chng l (a) b cho nhau theo ngha thng thng v
(b) nu chng loi tr ln nhau theo ngha rng chng ta cng s dng mt th nhiu bao nhiu th chng ta
c th s dng th kia t by nhiu. Mc d trong vn bn ti nhc ch yu n tri thc x hi, c th cho
rng s tch t (v tp trung) quyn lc chnh tr l b cho tin b v tri thc khoa hc ni chung. V s
tin b khoa hc ph thuc vo s cnh tranh t do ca t duy, do vo quyn t do t duy, v v vy,
cui cng, vo quyn t do chnh tr.
52
R. H. Tawney, Religion and The Rise of Capitalism, ch. II, cui mc ii.

67

hnh chin tranh xm lc, nh mt qui tc ph phn cng khai phi b cm, nhm huy
ng s ng h cng khai bng cch by t s xm lc nh s phng th.
By gi chng ta c th quay li i hi ca nh Khng tng rng phng php ca
anh ta l phng php th nghim tht s p dng cho lnh vc x hi hc. Ti ngh, ph
phn ca chng ta xua tan i hi ny. iu ny c th c minh ho thm bi s
tng t gia k thut vt l v k thut ci bin chnh th. C th tha nhn rng cc my
mc vt l c th c lp k hoch thnh cng theo cc bn thit k, v vi chng, ngay
c ton b mt nh my sn xut ra chng, v.v. Nhng tt c iu ny l c th ch v
nhiu th nghim tng phn c tin hnh t trc ri. Mi chic my l kt qu ca
rt nhiu ci tin nh. Mi model phi c pht trin bi phng php th v sai, bi
v s iu chnh nh. Cng ng th vi lp k hoch mt nh my sn xut. K hoch
dng nh l chnh th c th thnh cng ch v chng ta vp phi mi loi sai lm
nh ri; nu khc i c mi l do l n c th dn n cc sai lm ln.
Nh vy s tng t gia k thut vt l v k thut x hi, nu xt k lng hn, quay
ra chng k s chnh th v ng h k s ci bin x hi tng phn. Thnh ng k thut
x hi-social engineering, m ch n s tng t ny, b nh Khng tng chim
ot m khng c mt cht quyn no.
Vi im ny, ti kt thc cc nhn xt ph phn ca mnh v ch ngha Khng tng,
v by gi tp trung vo tn cng ng minh ca n, ch ngha lch s. Ti tin l mnh
cho mt cu tr li i vi lun im lch s ch ngha lin quan n cc th nghim
x hi, tr l l rng cc th nghim x hi l v dng v vic lp li chng di cc iu
kin ging ht l khng th. By gi chng ta s xem xt l l ny.

68

25 TNH HAY THAY I

CA CC IU KIN
TH NGHIM
Nh lch s ch ngha cho rng phng php th nghim khng th p dng c cho cc
khoa hc x hi v chng ta khng th, trong lnh vc x hi, ti to tu mt cch chnh
xc cc iu kin th nghim ging nhau. iu ny a chng ta n gn tm ca lp
trng lch s ch ngha. Ti tha nhn c th c ci g trong lun im ny: khng
nghi ng g y c mt s khc bit gia cc phng php vt l v x hi hc. Tuy
nhin, ti khng nh rng lun im lch s ch ngha da trn mt s hiu lm th thin
v cc phng php th nghim ca vt l hc.
u tin hy xem xt cc phng php ny. Mi nh vt l thc nghim u bit rng
nhng th rt khng ging nhau c th xy ra di ci dng nh l cc iu kin hon
ton ging nhau. Thot nhn hai dy in c th trng ging ht nhau, nhng nu mt dy
c i cho dy kia trong mt ci my in, s khc bit ny sinh c th l rt ln. Xem
xt k lng hn (th d, qua mt knh hin vi), chng ta c th thy l chng khng
ging nhau nh thot u chng c v. Nhng thng tht rt kh tm ra mt s khc
bit v iu kin ca hai th nghim dn n cc kt qu khc nhau. Nghin cu lu di
v thc nghim cng nh v l thuyt, c th l cn thit nhm tm ra tnh ging nhau no
l quan trng, v mc ging nhau no l . Vic nghin cu ny c th phi c
tin hnh trc khi chng ta c kh nng m bo cc iu kin ging nhau cho cc th
nghim ca mnh, v trc khi chng ta thm ch bit cc iu kin ging nhau trong
trng hp ny ngha l g. Th m, phng php thc nghim c p dng lun lun.
Nh vy chng ta c th ni rng cu hi v ci g c coi l cc iu kin ging
nhau ph thuc vo loi th nghim, v c th c tr li ch bng s dng cc th
nghim. Quyt nh a priori [trc] v bt k s khc bit hay s ging nhau c quan
st, du cho chng ni bt n u, liu chng c quan trng hay khng cho mc ch ti
lp mt th nghim, l vic khng th lm c. Cho nn chng ta phi phng php
th nghim t lo ly cho mnh. Nhng cn nhc tng t cng hon ton ng cho vn
c tranh lun nhiu v cch li nhn to cc th nghim khi cc tc ng quy ry. R
rng, chng ta khng th cch li mt thit b chng li mi tc ng; th d, chng ta
khng th bit a priori liu nh hng ca v tr ca cc hnh tinh hay ca mt trng ln
mt th nghim vt l l ng k hay c th b qua. Loi cch li nhn to no, nu c, l
cn thit, chng ta c th hc ch t kt qu ca cc th nghim, hay t cc l thuyt m,
n lt chng, li c kim chng bng cc th nghim.
Di nh sng ca nhng cn nhc nh vy, l l lch s ch ngha rng cc th nghim
x hi b cn tr mt cch tai ho bi tnh hay thay i ca cc iu kin x hi, v c
bit bi nhng thay i do pht trin lch s, mt hiu lc ca n. Nhng khc bit ni
bt, m nh lch s ch ngha bn tm vi chng nhiu n vy, tc l, nhng khc bit
gia cc iu kin thnh hnh trong cc thi k lch s khc nhau, khng nht thit gy ra
69

bt k kh khn khc thng no cho khoa hc x hi. C th th nhn rng nu gi nh

chng ta t nhin c chuyn vo mt thi k lch s khc, c l chng ta thy rng
nhiu k vng x hi ca chng ta, c hnh thnh trn c s cc th nghim tng phn
c thc hin trong x hi ca chng ta, gy tht vng. Ni cch khc, cc th nghim
c th dn n nhng kt qu khng lng trc c. Nhng chnh cc th nghim dn
chng ta n khm ph ra s thay i v cc iu kin x hi; cc th nghim dy chng
ta rng cc iu kin x hi no thay i vi thi k lch s; ht nh cc th nghim
dy nh vt l rng nhit si ca nc c th thay i theo v tr a l.53 Ni cch
khc, thuyt v s khc bit gia cc thi k lch s, cn xa mi lm cho cc th nghim
x hi l khng th, n n thun ch l s pht biu ca gi thit rng, nu chuyn sang
mt thi k khc, chng ta phi tip tc thc hin cc th nghim tng phn ca mnh,
nhng phi tnh n cc kt qu gy ngc nhin hay tht vng. Thc ra, nu chng ta bit
mi th v cc thi trong cc thi k lch s khc nhau, th l t cc th nghim c
thc hin trong tr tng tng ca chng ta. Cc nh s hc c th gp kh khn v din
gii cc ghi chp no , hoc h pht hin ra cc s thc chng t rng mt vi tin bi
ca h din gii sai bng chng lch s no . Nhng kh khn ny v din gii lch
s l bng chng duy nht ca chng ta v loi bin i lch s m nh lch s ch ngha
ngh n; nhng chng chng l g m l s khc nhau gia cc kt qu k vng v thc
t ca cc th nghim tng tng [trong t duy] ca chng ta. Nhng ngc nhin v tht
vng ny l nhng ci, bng phng php th v sai, dn n nhng ci thin v kh
nng ca chng ta din gii cc iu kin x hi l thng. V ci, m chng ta t
c bng th nghim tng tng trong trng hp din gii lch s, l ci cc nh nhn
loi hc t c trong cng vic thc tin trn thc a. Cc nh kho st hin i,
nhng ngi thnh cng trong iu chnh cc k vng ca mnh vi cc iu kin c l
khng km xa l so vi iu kin ca Thi , c thnh cng l nh cc th nghim
tng phn.
Mt s nh lch s ch ngha nghi ng kh nng ca nhng iu chnh thnh cng nh
vy; v thm ch h bo v thuyt ca mnh v tnh v dng ca cc th nghim x hi
bng l l rng, nu c dch chuyn vo cc thi k lch s xa xi, qu nhiu th
nghim x hi ca chng ta dn n tht vng. H khng nh rng chng ta khng c
kh nng iu chnh cc tp qun t duy ca mnh, v c bit cc tp qun ca mnh
v phn tch cc s kin x hi, theo cc iu kin gy hoang mang ny. Nhng s hi
nh vy i vi ti c v l mt phn ca chng cung lon lch s ch ngha- ni m
nh v tm quan trng ca bin i lch s; nhng ti phi th nhn l kh xua tan cc
ni s hi trn c s a priori. Rt cuc, kh nng iu chnh mnh vi mi trng
mi, thay i t ngi ny sang ngi khc, v dng nh chng c l do v sao chng ta
li ch i mt nh lch s ch ngha (ngi c cc quan im ch bi nh vy) rng anh
ta s c kh nng thch nghi u c ca mnh vi cc thay i mi trng x hi mt cch
thnh cng. Hn na, vn cn ph thuc vo tnh cht ca mi trng mi. Kh nng
rng mt nh nghin cu x hi c th thy mnh b n tht trc khi anh ta thnh cng
trong thch nghi bn thn, bng th v sai, vi cc tp qun n tht ngi, khng th b
loi tr nhiu hn kh nng rng, trong x hi k hoch no , nghin cu ca anh ta
53

Trong c hai trng hp- cc thi k lch s v v tr a l- chng ta c th thy, dng cc l thuyt c
kim chng bng cc th nghim, rng bt k dn chiu no n cc v tr khng gian hay thi gian u c
th c thay th bng s m t chung no v cc iu kin quan trng thnh hnh nht nh, nh tnh
trng gio dc, hay cao.

70

c th kt thc trong mt tri tp trung. Cc nhn xt tng t tuy vy cng ng trong

lnh vc vt l hc. C nhiu ni trn th gii ni cc iu kin vt cht thnh hnh cho
nh vt l t c hi sng st, hoc c hi iu chnh mnh theo cc iu kin ny bng th
v sai.
Tm li, dng nh khng c bt k c s no cho khng nh lch s ch ngha c v
hp l rng tnh hay thay i ca cc iu kin lch s lm cho phng php thc nghim
khng th s dng c cho cc vn ca x hi, hoc cho khng nh, im ny,
rng nghin cu x hi l v c bn khc nghin cu t nhin. L chuyn hon ton khc
nu chng ta tha nhn, trong thc tin, rng thng rt kh cho nh khoa hc x hi
chn v thay i tu cc iu kin th nghim ca mnh. Nh vt l v tr tt hn mc
d i khi anh ta cng i mt vi cc kh khn tng t. Nh kh nng thc hin cc th
nghim trong cc trng hp dn bin i, hay di cc iu kin nhit cc oan, l
rt hn ch. Nhng chng ta khng c qun rng nhiu kh nng m ra cho nh vt l
ngy nay l khng thc tin trc y khng lu, khng phi v nhng kh khn vt l
m v kh khn x hi, tc l v chng ta khng sn sng chu ri ro chi tin cn thit
cho nghin cu. Tuy vy, s thc rng nhiu kho st vt l by gi c th c tin hnh
di cc iu kin thc nghim t ng ch, trong khi nh khoa hc x hi li v th rt
khc. Nhiu th nghim rt ng mong mi s vn ch l cc c m cho thi gian di
trc mt, bt chp vic chng khng mang tnh Khng tng m mang tnh tng phn.
Trong thc tin, anh ta thng phi da qu nhiu vo cc th nghim thc hin trong c,
v vo phn tch cc bin php chnh tr c thc hin di cc iu kin, v theo mt
cch, rt ng ch trch nhn t quan im khoa hc.

71

26 KHI QUT HO B
HN CH CC THI
K?
S thc rng ti tho lun vn v cc th nghim x hi trc tho lun ni chung
vn v cc qui lut, hay l thuyt, hay gi thuyt, hay khi qut ho x hi hc,
khng c ngha l ti ngh rng cc quan st v th nghim theo cch no hay cch
khc ng u tin v mt logic hn cc l thuyt. Ngc li, ti tin rng cc l thuyt l
trc i vi cc quan st v th nghim, theo ngha nhng ci sau l quan trng ch trong
quan h ti cc vn l thuyt. Hn na, chng ta phi c cu hi trc khi chng ta c
th hi vng rng quan st hay th nghim c th bng cch no gip chng ta a ra
mt cu tr li. Hoc din t theo phng php th v sai, th phi i trc sai; v nh
chng ta thy ( mc 24), l thuyt hay gi thuyt lun mang tnh thm d v l mt
phn ca th, trong khi quan st v th nghim gip chng ta gt b cc l thuyt bng
cch chng t rng chng sai. V vy, ti khng tin vo phng php khi qut ho, tc
l, vo quan im rng khoa hc bt u vi nhng quan st t n dn ra cc l thuyt
bng qu trnh khi qut ho hay qui np no . ng hn, ti tin rng chc nng ca
quan st v th nghim l khim tn hn gip chng ta kim tra cc l thuyt ca mnh
v loi b cc l thuyt khng qua c kim chng; cho d phi tha nhn rng qu
trnh gt b ny khng ch kim tra suy on l thuyt, m cng kch thch n th li nav thng li sai, v li b bc, bng nhng quan st v th nghim mi.
Trong mc ny, ti s ph phn lun im lch s ch ngha (xem mc 1) rng trong
cc khoa hc x hi tnh hp l ca mi khi qut ho, hay ch t ca cc khi qut ho
quan trng nht, b gii hn thi k lch s c th trong nhng quan st lin quan
c thc hin. Ti s ph phn lun im ny m khng trc tin i tho lun vn
liu ci gi l phng php khi qut ho c bo v c hay khng, bt chp nim tin
chc chn ca ti l n khng; v ti ngh rng lut im lch s ch ngha c th b bc
m khng cn chng t rng phng php ny l khng c hiu lc. Vic tho lun cc
quan im ca ti v phng php ny, v v cc quan h gia l thuyt v th nghim ni
chung, v vy, c th c hon li. N s c cp li mc 28.
Ti bt u ph phn ca mnh v lun im lch s ch ngha vi th nhn rng hu
ht ngi dn sng trong mt thi k lch s no s c thin hng ti nim tin sai
rng nhng s u n m h quan st thy quanh mnh l cc qui lut ph qut ca i
sng x hi, ng vi mi x hi. Tht vy, i khi chng ta ch nhn ra rng bn thn
chng ta nng niu cc nim tin nh vy khi, mt nc khc, chng ta thy rng cc tp
qun v n ung, v xng h, v.v. ca chng ta chng c chp nhn nh chng ta gi
thit mt cch u tr. Suy ra kh hin nhin l nhiu trong s cc khi qut ho khc ca
chng ta, bt lun c thc hay khng, c th thuc cng loi, mc d chng vn khng
b thch thc v chng ta khng th du hnh vo mt thi k lch s khc. (Kt lun ny

72

c, th d, Hesiod54 rt ra). Ni cch khc, phi th nhn rng c th c nhiu s u

n trong i sng x hi ca chng ta ch c trng cho thi k ring ca chng ta, v
rng chng ta c thin hng coi nh hay b qua hn ch ny. n mc (c bit trong
thi k bin ng x hi nhanh) chng ta c th bit c vi ni au bun rng chng ta
da vo cc qui lut mt hiu lc.55
Nu cc lun im lch s ch ngha ch dng li y, th chng ta ch c th ln n
anh ta lm mt thi gian v mt im kh tm thng. Nhng ng tic, anh ta khng
nh nhiu hn. Anh ta khng khng rng tnh hnh to ra nhng kh khn khng xut
hin i vi cc khoa hc t nhin, trong cc khoa hc x hi chng ta chng bao gi
c gi thit, rng chng ta khm ph ra mt qui lut ph qut tht s, v chng ta
chng bao gi bit liu n lun ng trong qu kh hay khng (v cc ghi chp ca chng
ta c th khng ) hoc c ng trong tng lai hay khng.
Chng li nhng i hi nh vy, ti khng chp nhn rng tnh hnh c m t theo
cch no l ring cho cc khoa hc x hi, hoc rng n gy ra bt k kh khn ring
no. Ngc li, hin nhin l mt s thay i v mi trng vt l ca chng ta c th
lm ny sinh cc kinh nghim kh ging nhng kinh nghim ny sinh t mt s thay i
v mi trng x hi hay lch s ca chng ta. Liu c s u n hin nhin v ai cng
bit no hn s k tip nhau ca ngy v m? Th m n sp khi ta bc qua vng
cc. C l rt kh so snh cc kinh nghim vt l vi kinh nghim x hi, nhng ti
ngh rng mt s tan v nh vy c th ng l ngc nhin nh bt k s tng t no
xy ra trong lnh vc x hi. Ly mt th d khc, cc mi trng lch s hay x hi ca
x Crete nm 1990 v ca Crete ba ngn nm trc kh c th ni l khc nhiu hn cc
mi trng a cht hay vt l ca Crete v ca Greenland [Bng o]. Mt s di chuyn
t ngt khng c chun b t mt mi trng vt l sang mi trng khc, ti ngh, c
th c nhiu kh nng to ra cc kt qu tai ho hn l mt s thay i tng ng v mi
trng x hi.
Dng nh r i vi ti rng nh lch s ch ngha nh gi qu cao tm quan trng
ca nhng khc bit hi d thy gia cc thi k lch s khc nhau, v rng anh ta nh
gi thp cc kh nng ca ti kho lo khoa hc. ng l cc qui lut do Kepler khm
ph ra ch c hiu lc i vi cc h thng hnh tinh, nhng hiu lc ca n khng gii
hn h thng Mt tri ni ng sng v h thng c ng quan st.56 Newton
khng phi lui v mt x ca v tr ni ng c th quan st cc vt th chuyn ng
54

Cng kt lun ny l c s ca ci gi l x hi hc tri thc c ph phn y cc trang 143f., v

chng 23 ca cun Open Society ca ti.
55
K. Mannheim, Man and Society, tr. 178, vit v ngi dn thng quan st th gii x hi mt cch
sng d, rng trong cc thi k tnh, trong mi trng hp, anh ta khng c kh nng phn bit gia mt
qui lut x hi chung tru tng v cc nguyn l ring ch c trong mt thi i no , v trong cc thi k
bin ng ch cht t th s khc bit gia hai loi ny l khng r rng i vi ngi quan st. Mannheim
gi cc nguyn l ring ny, nhng ci ch thnh hnh trong mt thi i no y, l principia media [cc
nguyn l mi trng]; xem ch thch 51 trang 93 di y. i vi tnh hnh trong mt thi k ni cu
trc x hi lin tc thay i, xem Mannheim, op. cit., tr. 179f.
56
Cc qui lut Kepler c Mill chn nh cc th d v ci ng gi, theo Bacon, l axiomata media [cc
tin mi trng], v l do l chng khng l cc qui lut chung v chuyn ng m ch l cc qui lut
(gn ng) v chuyn ng hnh tinh: xem Logic, Book, VI, ch. V, mc 5. Axioma media tng t ca mt
khoa hc x hi c th l cc qui lut ng cho mi h thng x hi thuc mt loi no , hn l nhng
s u n ngu nhin hn ca mt thi k lch s cho trc. Ci sau c th c so snh, khng phi vi
cc qui lut Kepler, m, th d, vi nhng s u n trong trt t ca cc hnh tinh trong h mt tri ca
chng ta.

73

khng b nh hng ca cc lc hp dn v cc lc khc thy tm quan trng ca qui

lut qun tnh. Mt khc, qui lut ny, cho d chng vt no trong h thng ny chuyn
ng ph hp vi n, khng mt tm quan trng ca n trong h thng Mt tri. Tng
t, dng nh chng c l do v sao chng ta li khng c kh nng to ra cc l thuyt x
hi hc, nhng l thuyt l quan trng cho mi giai on x hi. Nhng s khc bit
ngon mc gia cc giai on ny hon ton khng phi l du hiu rng cc qui lut nh
vy l khng th tm thy, chng hn nhng s khc bit ngon mc gia Crete v
Greenland c th chng t rng khng c qui lut vt l no ng cho c hai khu vc.
Ngc li, nhng s khc bit ny dng nh, ch t trong mt vi trng hp, c tnh
tng i hi ht (nh nhng khc bit v tp qun, xng h, nghi l, v.v.), v t nhiu
cng ng th vi nhng s u n c cho l c trng ca mt thi k lch s no
hay ca mt x hi no (v by gi chng c mt s nh x hi hc gi l principia
media).57
i vi im ny, nh lch s ch ngha c th tr li rng nhng s khc bit v mi
trng x hi l c bn hn cc s khc bit v mi trng vt l; v nu x hi thay i,
th con ngi cng thay i; v iu ny hm mt s thay i v mi s u n, v
mi s u n x hi u ph thuc vo bn cht con ngi, vo nguyn t ca x hi.
Tr li ca chng ta l cc nguyn t vt l cng thay i vi mi trng ca chng (th
d, di tc ng ca cc trng in-t, v.v.), khng phi bt chp cc qui lut vt l,
m ph hp vi cc qui lut ny. V li, tm quan trng ca cc thay i c vin vo
ca bn cht con ngi l ng ng, v rt kh nh gi.
By gi chng ta chuyn sang lun im lch s ch ngha l trong cc khoa hc x hi
chng ta chng bao gi c gi thit rng chng ta khm ph ra qui lut ph qut tht
s v chng ta khng th chc chn liu tnh hiu lc ca n c m rng ra qu cc thi k
trong chng ta quan st thy l n ng hay khng. iu ny c th c tha nhn,
nhng ch trong chng mc l n cng p dng cho cc khoa hc t nhin na. Trong cc
khoa hc t nhin, r rng, chng ta chng bao gi hon ton chc chn liu cc qui lut
ca chng ta l c hiu lc ph qut thc s hay khng, hoc liu chng ch ng trong
mt thi k no (c l ch trong thi k n ca v tr) hoc ch cc vng no (c
l trong mt vng c trng hp dn tng i yu) hay khng. Bt chp tnh khng th
m bo chc tnh hiu lc ph qut ca chng, chng ta khng chua thm trong trnh
by cc qui lut t nhin mt iu kin ni rng chng c khng nh ch cho thi k
57

K. Mannheim, op. cit., tr. 177, a ra t principia media vi dn chiu n Mill (ngi ni v axioma
media; xem ch thch trc) biu th ci ti gi l nhng khi qut ho gii hn thi k lch s c th
trong nhng quan st lin quan c thc hin; xem, th d, on vn sau ca ng (op. cit., tr. 178; so
snh vi ch thch 49 ca ti trang 91 trn y): Ngi dn thng quan st th gii x hi mt cch
sng d, hiu cc s kin trc ht bng v tnh dng principia media nh vy, ci l cc nguyn l
ring thng dng ch trong mt thi i no . (Mannheim, loc. cit.[ ch dn] , nh ngha principia
media ca mnh bng cch ni rng chng l, trong phn tch cui cng, cc lc ph qut trong mt s sp
xp c th nh chng c tch hp t cc nhn t hot ng khc nhau mt ch cho trc ti mt thi
im cho trc - mt s kt hp c bit ca nhng hon cnh c th chng bao gi lp li). Mannheim
tuyn b rng ng ta khng theo ch ngha lch s, ch ngha Hegel, v ch ngha Marx trong tht bi ca
chng tnh n cc nhn t ph qut (op. cit., tr. 177 f.). Do , lp trng ca ng ta l nhn mnh
tm quan trng ca cc khi qut ho c gii hn cc thi k lch s c th hay ring bit, trong khi th
nhn rng chng ta c th xut pht t chng, bng mt phng php tru tng, n cc nguyn l
chung cha ng trong chng. (Chng li quan im ny, ti khng tin rng cc l thuyt tng qut hn c
th nhn c bng tru tng ho t nhng s u n ca cc tp qun, cc th tc php l, v.v.,
nhng ci, theo cc th d do Mannheim a ra cc trang 179 ff., to thnh principia media ca ng).

74

m chng c quan st l ng, hoc c l ch trong phm vi thi k v tr hc hin

thi. Chng phi l du hiu ca s thn trng khoa hc ng khen ngi nu gi nh
chng ta chua thm mt iu kin nh vy, m ch l du hiu rng chng ta khng hiu
th tc khoa hc.58 V mt nh quan trng ca phng php khoa hc l chng ta
phi tm kim cc qui lut vi mt phm vi hiu lc v hn.59 Nu gi nh chng ta tha
nhn cc qui lut m bn thn chng b thay i, th s thay i chng bao gi c th
c gii thch bng cc qui lut. s l s tha nhn rng thay i n gin l huyn
diu. V s l kt thc ca tin b khoa hc; v nu chng ta thc hin cc quan st
khng c mong i, khng cn phi xem xt li cc l thuyt ca chng ta: gi thuyt
ad hoc rng cc qui lut thay i s gii thch mi th.
Cc l l ny ng cho cc khoa hc x hi khng km cho cc khoa hc t nhin.
Vi im ny ti kt thc s ph phn ca mnh v cc thuyt quan trng hn ca cc
thuyt phn t nhin ca ch ngha lch s. Trc khi tip tc tho lun mt s thuyt t
c bn hn, tip theo ti s quay sang mt thuyt ca cc hc thuyt theo t nhin, c th
l thuyt cho rng, chng ta phi tm kim cc qui lut ca pht trin lch s.

58

Thng c gi rng thay cho c gng mt cch v ch theo tm gng ca vt l hc trong x hi

hc, v tm cc qui lut x hi hc ph qut, s tt hn i theo tm gng ca mt x hi hc lch s ch
ngha trong vt l hc, tc l hot ng vi cc qui lut c gii hn cc thi k lch s. Cc nh lch s
ch ngha nhng ngi khc khoi nhn mnh tnh thng nht ca vt l hc v x hi hc l c bit thin
v suy ngh theo cch ny. Xem Neurath, Erkenntnis, vol. VI, tr. 399.
59
Cng nh ny trong vt l hc dn n, th d, i hi rng s dch chuyn quan st c cc
m tinh vn xa xi phi c gii thch; v nu khng c nh ny, th s hon ton l gi thit
rng cc qui lut v tn s nguyn t thay i vi cc vng khc nhau ca v tr, hay vi thi gian. V
cng nh l ci dn l thuyt tng i n pht biu cc nh lut chuyn ng, nh nh lut cng
tc , v.v., ging nhau cho cc tc cao v thp (hoc cho cc trng hp dn mnh v yu), v khng
tho mn vi cc gi thit ad hoc cho cc lnh vc khc nhau v tc (hay v hp dn). V mt tho lun
v Tnh bt bin ca cc Qui lut T nhin, v s phn i ca n i vi Tnh ng u ca T nhin,
xem Logic of Scientific Discovery ca ti, mc 79.

75

IV
__________________________

PH PHN CC THUYT
THEO-T NHIN

27 C QUI LUT V
TIN HO? CC QUI
LUT
V CC XU HNG
Cc thuyt ca ch ngha lch s m ti gi l theo-t nhin c nhiu im chung vi
cc thuyt phn t nhin ca n. Chng, th d, b nh hng ca t duy chnh th, v bt
ngun t mt s hiu lm cc phng php ca cc khoa hc t nhin. V chng tiu biu
cho mt n lc sao chp lm lc cc phng php ny, chng c th c gi l khoa
hc ch ngha (theo ngha ca Gio s Hayek60). Chng c trng cho ch ngha lch s
ng nh cc thuyt phn t nhin ca n c trng, v c l cn quan trng hn. Nim
tin, c bit hn, rng nhim v ca cc khoa hc x hi l i bc trn qui lut tin ho
ca x hi nhm on trc tng lai ca n (quan im c trnh by cc mc 14
n 17) c l c th c coi nh thuyt lch s ch ngha trung tm. Mt mt, v chnh
quan im ny v x hi chuyn dch qua mt lot cc giai on l ci gy ra s tng
phn gia mt th gii x hi bin i v mt th gii vt l khng thay i, v bng cch
y khch l ch ngha phn t nhin. Mt khc, cng quan im lm ny sinh nim tin
60

Xem F. A. von Hayek, Scientism and the Study of Society, Economica, N.S., vol. IX, c bit tr. 269.
Gio s Hayek dng t ch ngha khoa hc nh ci tn cho s bt chc m qung phng php v
ngn ng ca khoa hc. N c dng y, ng hn, nh tn cho s bt chc ci nhng ngi nht
nh hiu lm l phng php v ngn ng ca khoa hc.

76

theo t nhin v khoa hc ch ngha- vo ci gi l cc qui lut t nhin v s ni tip

nhau; mt nim tin m, trong thi ca Comte v Mill, c th cho l c nhng tin
on di hn ca thin vn hc, v gn y c ch ngha Darwin, ng h. Tht vy,
mt thi thng mi y v ch ngha lch s c th c xem thun tu ch nh mt
phn ca mt v ch ngha tin ho - mt trit l c nh hng ca mnh ch yu da vo
s va chm hi k l gia mt gi thuyt khoa hc li lc v cc ng vt v thc vt trn
tri t, v mt l thuyt siu hnh c hn m, tnh c, l mt phn ca mt nim tin tn
gio c xc lp.61
Ci m chng ta gi l gi thuyt tin ho l mt s gii thch v mt lot quan st sinh
hc v c thc vt hc th d, v nhng s ging nhau nht nh gia cc loi v cc
ging khc nhau - bng gi thit v t tin chung ca cc dng c h hng vi nhau.62 Gi
thuyt ny khng phi l mt qui lut ph qut, cho d cc qui lut ph qut no ca
t nhin, nh cc qui lut v di truyn, tch bit, v t bin, c tham gia vo s gii
thch. ng hn, n c tnh cht ca mt tuyn b lch s c bit (ring hay c th). (N
c cng a v nh tuyn b: Charles Darwin v Francis Galton c chung mt ngi
ng). S thc rng gi thuyt tin ho khng phi l mt qui lut ph qut ca t nhin63
m l mt tuyn b lch s c bit (hoc, chnh xc hn, n nht) v t tin ca mt s
thc vt v ng vt trn tri t, hi b lm m h bi s thc rng t gi thuyt
thng c dng c trng cho a v ca cc qui lut ph qut ca t nhin. Nhng
chng ta khng c qun rng t ny thng xuyn c dng vi mt ngha khc. Th
d, c th chc chn ng khi coi mt chn on y hc mang tnh thm d nh mt gi
thuyt, cho d mt gi thuyt nh vy mang c trng n nht v lch s hn l mang
tnh cht ca mt qui lut ph qut. Ni cch khc, s thc rng mi qui lut t nhin u
l cc gi thuyt khng c lm ri s ch ca chng ta khi s thc rng khng phi
mi gi thuyt u l qui lut, v rng c bit hn, cc gi thuyt lch s, nh mt qui
tc, khng l ph qut m l cc tuyn b n nht v mt s kin ring bit, hay v mt
s cc s kin nh vy.
Nhng c th c mt qui lut v tin ho? C th c mt qui lut khoa hc theo ngha
m T. H. Huxley ch khi ng vit: phi l mt trit gia thiu nhit tnh, ngi
nghi ng rng khoa hc s sm mun c c qui lut v tin ho ca cc dng hu c

61

Ti ng vi Gio s Raven, trong tc phm Science, Religion, and the Future (1943) ca mnh, khi
ng gi mu thun ny l mt cn bo trong mt tch tr thi Victoria; mc d sc mnh ca nhn xt
ny c l b lm suy yu i mt cht bi s ch ca ng ti hi nc vn bc ln t chic tch - ti cc
H thng V i ca Trit hc Tin ho do Bergson, Whitehead, Smuts, v nhng ngi khc to ra.
62
Cm thy hi b hm do bi khuynh hng ca nhng ngi theo thuyt tin ho i nghi ng bt k ai
l theo ch ngha ngu dn, nhng ngi khng chia s thi xc cm ca h i vi thuyt tin ho nh
mt thch thc to tn v phn ng i vi t duy truyn thng, tt hn cho ti ni y rng ti
thy ch ngha Darwin hin i l mt gii thch thnh cng nht ca cc s thc quan trng. Mt minh ho
tt v thi xc cm ca nhng ngi theo thuyt tin ho l tuyn b ca C. H. Waddington (Science
and Ethics, 1942, tr. 17) rng chng ta phi chp nhn chiu hng tin ho l tt n gin bi v n l
tt; mt tuyn b cng minh ho s thc rng nhn xt tit l sau y ca Gio s Bernal v cuc tranh ci
v ch ngha Darwin (ibid., tr. 115) vn cn ngc nhau: khng phi l khoa hc phi chin u vi
mt k th bn ngoi, l Nh th; m l Nh th trong bn thn cc nh khoa hc.
63
Ngay c mt tuyn b nh Mi ng vt c xng sng u c chung mt i t tin khng phi l mt
qui lut ph qut ca t nhin, bt chp t mi; v n dn chiu ti cc ng vt c xng sng tn ti
trn tri t, hn l ti mi c th c cu to c coi l c trng cho cc ng vt c xng sng bt k
ch no v thi gian no. Xem cun Logic of Scientific Discovery ca ti, mc 14 f.

77

- v trt t khng thay i ca chui nhn qu v i m tt c cc dng hu c, c xa

v hin i, u l cc mi lin kt?64
Ti tin rng cu tr li cho cu hi ny phi l Khng, v rng tm kim qui lut v
trt t khng thay i trong tin ho c l khng th thuc phm vi ca phng php
khoa hc, d trong sinh hc hay trong x hi hc. Cc l do ca ti rt n gin. S tin
ho ca cuc sng trn tri t, hay ca x hi loi ngi, l mt qu trnh lch s n
nht. Mt qu trnh nh vy, chng ta c th gi thit, din ra ph hp vi mi loi qui
lut nhn qu, th d, cc qui lut ca c hc, ho hc, ca di truyn v tch bit, ca
chn lc t nhin, v.v. S m t ca n, tuy vy, khng phi l mt qui lut, m ch l
mt tuyn b lch s duy nht. Cc qui lut ph qut a ra nhng khng nh v trt t
khng thay i no , nh Huxley din t, tc l v tt c cc qu trnh thuc loi no
; v cho d khng c l do v sao s quan st mt trng hp n nht li khng khin
chng ta trnh by mt qui lut ph qut, cng nh v sao, nu chng ta may mn, chng
ta li khng nhm trng s tht, r rng l bt c qui lut no, c din t bng cch
ny hay cch khc, phi c kim nghim bi cc trng hp mi trc khi n c th
c khoa hc coi l nghim tc. Nhng chng ta khng th hi vng kim nghim mt
gi thuyt ph qut, cng chng th tm ra mt qui lut t nhin c th chp nhn c
i vi khoa hc, nu chng ta mi mi b gii hn s quan st mt qu trnh duy nht.
S quan st mt qu trnh duy nht cng khng th gip chng ta on trc s pht trin
tng lai ca n. S quan st cn thn nht mt con nhng ang pht trin khng gip
chng ta tin on s bin ho ca n thnh mt con bm. p dng cho lch s x hi
loi ngi v chng ta ch yu quan tm n chnh iu ny y- lp lun ny ca
chng ta c H. A. L. Fisher din t vi cc t th ny: Nhiu ngi pht hin ra
mt mu , mt nhp iu, mt hnh mu c xc nh trc trong lch s ti ch
thy mt tnh trng khn cp k tip nhau, ch mt qu trnh khng l duy nht, v l
duy nht, nn khng th c khi qut ho no65
Lm sao c th chng li s phn i ny. Nhng ngi tin vo qui lut tin ho c th
gi hai lp trng ch yu. H c th (a) t chi lun im ca chng ta rng qu trnh
tin ho l duy nht; hoc (b) khng nh rng trong mt qu trnh tin ho, ngay nu n
l duy nht, chng ta c th phn bit mt xu hng hay khuynh hng hay chiu hng,
v rng chng ta c th trnh by mt gi thuyt ni r xu hng ny, v kim nghim gi
thuyt ny bng thc nghim. Hai lp trng (a) v (b) khng loi tr ln nhau.

64

Xem T. H. Huxley, Lay Sermons (1880), tr. 214. Nim tin ca Huxley vo mt qui lut tin ho l rt
khc thng v thi cc k ph phn ca ng i vi tng v mt qui lut ca s tin b (khng th
trnh khi). S gii thch dng nh l ng khng ch phn bit r rng gia tin ho t nhin v tin b,
m l ng cho rng (mt cch ng n, ti tin vy) hai th chng c my lin quan. Phn tch l th ca
Julian Huxley v ci ng gi l s tin b tin ho (Evolution, 1942, cc tr. 559 ff.) i vi ti dng nh
khng lm phong ph thm my cho iu ny, mc d n c nh thit lp mt mi lin kt gia tin
ho v tin b. V ng tha nhn rng tin ho, du cho i khi l tin b, thng xuyn hn n khng
phi th. (V iu ny v v nh ngha ca Huxley v tin b, xem ch thch 26 tr. 117 di y). Mt
khc, s thc rng mi pht trin tin b c th c coi nh tin ho, l hu nh khng hn s tm
thng. (S k tip nhau ca cc loi mang tnh tri c cho l tin b theo ngha ca ng c th n
thun ch c ngha rng chng ta quen dng t cc loi mang tnh tri cho cc loi thnh cng nht m
chng l cc loi tin b nht).
65
Xem H. A. L. Fisher, History of Europe, vol. I. tr. vii (ti nhn mnh). Xem c F. A. von Hayek, op. cit.,
Economica, vol X, tr. 58, ng ph phn n lc i tm cc qui lut ni theo bn cht ca s vic chng
khng th c tm thy, trong s k tip nhau ca cc hin tng lch s duy nht v xy ra mt ln.

78

Lp trng (a) truy nguyn v mt tng rt c xa- tng rng vng i v sinh,
u th, thanh nin, trng thnh, gi, v cht p dng khng ch cho ring tng ng vt
v thc vt, m cho c cc x hi, chng tc, v c l cho c ton b th gii. Thuyt c
xa ny c Plato s dng trong din gii ca ng v s suy tn v sp ca cc
quc gia th thuc Hi Lp v ca ch Persian (Ba T).66 Machiavelli, Vico,
Spengler, v gn y Gio s Toynbee trong tc phm Study of History b v ca mnh,
s dng n mt cch tng t. T quan im ca thuyt ny, lch s c tnh lp li, v
cc qui lut v vng i ca cc nn vn minh, th d, c th c nghin cu theo cng
cch nh chng ta nghin cu vng i ca mt loi ng vt no .67 Chnh mt h qu
ca thuyt ny, mc d l h qu m nhng ngi sng to ra n hu nh khng c
nh, lm yu s phn i ca chng ta, s phn i da trn tnh duy nht ca qu trnh
tin ho hay lch s. By gi ti khng c nh (ti cm thy chc chn l trong on
c trch dn Gio s Fisher cng khng) ph nhn rng lch s i khi t lp li mnh
trong cc kha cnh no , cng khng ph nhn rng s tng t gia cc loi no
ca cc s kin lch s, nh s ni ln ca cc chnh th chuyn ch trong Hi Lp c v
trong cc thi k hin i, c th l quan trng cho nh nghin cu x hi hc v quyn
lc chnh tr.68 Nhng r rng l tt c cc th d lp li ny li dnh lu n cc hon
cnh ht sc khng ging nhau, v c th nh hng ng k ln pht trin tip theo. Cho
nn chng ta khng c l do hp l no k vng v bt k s lp li hin nhin ca s
pht trin lch s ci s tip tc chy song song vi nguyn mu ca n. Phi tha nhn,
mt khi chng ta tin vo qui lut v cc vng i lp li- mt nim tin t c nh
cc suy on tng t, hay c l c tha k t Plato chng ta chc chn khm ph ra
s xc nhn n gn nh mi ni. Nhng iu ny n thun ch l mt trong nhiu th
d ca cc l thuyt siu hnh dng nh c xc nhn bi cc s thc cc s thc,
nu xem xt k lng hn, ho ra l c la chn theo nh sng ca chnh cc l thuyt
m chng c cho l phi kim nghim.69
66

Plato m t chu k ca Nm V i trong The Statesman; xut pht t gi thit rng chng ta sng trong
thi suy i, ng p dng thuyt ny trong The Republics cho tin ho ca cc th Hi Lp, v trong Laws
cho ch Ba T.
67
Gio s Toynbee khng khng rng phng php ca ng l iu tra nghin cu theo kinh nghim
vng i ca 21 mu k quc ca loi sinh vt nn vn minh. Nhng trong khi ng chp nhn phng
php ny, th ng thm ch khng b chi phi bi bt k mong mun no chng li l l (c trch
trn) ca Fisher; ch t, ti khng thy bt k du hiu no v mt mong mi nh vy trong cc bnh lun
ca ng v l l ny m ng tho mn gt b nh mt biu l ca lng tin Phng Ty hin i vo
quyn tuyt i ca kh nng; xem A Study of History, vol. V, tr. 414. Ti khng ngh rng s m t c
im ny l cng bng i vi Fisher, ngi tip tc on c trch dn bng nhng li sau: S thc
ca tin b c vit r rng v y trn cc trang ca lch s; nhng tin b khng phi l mt qui lut
ca t nhin. Ci m mt th h kim c c th b th h tip theo nh mt.
68
Trong sinh hc tnh hnh l tng t chng mc s lng ln ca nhng tin ho (th d, ca cc ging
khc nhau) c th c coi nh c s cho cc khi qut ho. Nhng s so snh ny ca nhng tin ho n
thun ch dn n s m t v cc kiu (loi) ca cc qu trnh tin ho. Tnh hnh cng th trong lch s x
hi. Chng ta c th thy rng cc kiu no ca cc s kin c lp li y , nhng nh kt qu
t so snh nh vy khng t ra c qui lut no m t hoc din tin ca mi qu trnh tin ho (nh qui lut
v cc chu k tin ho) hay din tin ca mi tin ho ni chung. Xem ch thch 26 di y.
69
Hu nh c th ni v mi l thuyt rng n ph hp vi nhiu s thc: y l mt trong nhng l do v
sao c th ni v mt l thuyt l n c cng c ch khi chng ta khng c kh nng tm ra cc s thc
bc b, hn l nu chng ta c kh nng tm thy cc s thc ng h; xem mc 29 di y, v cun Logic
of Scientific Discovery ca ti, c bit chng X. Mt th d ca th tc b ph phn y, ti tin, l kho
st c cho l mang tnh kinh nghim ca Gio s Toynbee v vng i ca ci c ng gi l loi nn

79

Quay sang lp trng (b), nim tin rng chng ta c th thy r, v ngoi suy, xu
hng hay chiu hng ca chuyn ng tin ho, u tin chng ta c th nhc n rng
nim tin ny nh hng n, v c dng ng h, mt s gi thuyt chu k i
din cho lp trng (a) . Th d, Gio s Toynbee by t cc quan im sau mang c
trng ca lp trng (b) ng h lp trng (a): Cc nn vn minh khng phi l cc
trng thi tnh ca x hi m l cc chuyn ng ng hc thuc loi tin ho. Chng
khng ch khng th ng yn, m chng khng th o chiu m khng lm tan v qui
lut chuyn ng ring ca chng.70 Ti y chng ta gn nh c tt c cc yu t
thng thy trong cc tuyn b ca lp trng (b): tng v ng hc x hi (ngc li
vi tnh hc x hi); v cc chuyn ng tin ho ca cc x hi (di tc ng ca cc
lc x hi); v v cc chiu hng (v din tin, v tc ) ca cc chuyn ng nh vy
m chng, h ni, khng th o chiu li m khng ph v qui lut chuyn ng. Cc
thut ng in nghing tt c u c ly t vt l hc sang cho x hi hc, v s chp
nhn chng dn n mt lot hiu lm th thin ng kinh ngc, nhng rt c trng
cho s lm dng mang tnh khoa hc ch ngha ca cc th d vt l hc v thin vn hc.
Phi tha nhn, nhng s hiu lm ny khng my tai hi ngoi phn xng lch s ch
ngha. Trong kinh t hc, th d vic dng thut ng ng hc (so vi thut ng ng
hc v m thi thng hin nay) l khng th ch trch, nh phi c chp nhn bi
ngay c nhng ngi khng thch thut ng ny. Nhng ngay c vic s dng ny cng
c xut x t n lc ca Comte p dng s phn bit gia tnh hc v ng hc ca
nh vt l vo x hi hc; v khng th c nghi ng g v s hiu lm th bo to c s
cho n lc ny. V loi x hi m nh x hi hc gi l tnh tng t mt cch chnh
xc vi cc h thng vt l m nh vt l gi l ng (du cho c gi l dngstationary). Th d in hnh l h thng mt tri; n l nguyn mu ca mt h thng
ng theo ngha ca nh vt l; nhng v n mang tnh lp li (hay dng), do n khng
tng ln hay pht trin, do n khng chng t bt k s thay i cu trc no (tr cc thay
i khng thuc phm vi ca ng hc thin th v nhng ci v th c th c b qua
y), n tng ng, khng nghi ng g, vi cc h thng x hi m nh x hi hc c th
gi l tnh. im ny c tm quan trng ng k lin quan ti nhng i hi ca ch
ngha lch s, trong chng mc thnh cng ca cc tin on di hn ca thin vn hc
hon ton ph thuc vo tnh lp lp li ny, v theo ngha ca nh x hi hc mang
tnh tnh, ca h thng mt tri - v s thc rng y chng ta c th b qua bt k triu
chng ca mt s pht trin lch s no. V vy chc chn l mt sai lm gi thit rng
nhng tin on ng hc di hn ny ca mt h thng dng (stationary) li thit lp
kh nng tin tri lch s ton din ca cc h thng x hi khng dng (non-stationary).
vn minh (xem ch thch 8 trn). ng dng nh b qua s thc rng ng phn loi ch cc thc th,
nhng ci ph hp vi nim tin a priori ca ng vo cc vng i, nh cc nn vn minh. Th d, Gio s
Toynbee tng phn cc nn vn minh ca ng (op. cit., vol. 1, cc tr. 147 n 149) vi cc x hi
nguyn thu nhm thit lp thuyt ca mnh rng nhng ci ny khng th thuc v cng loi-species
mc d chng c th thuc v cng ging-genus. Nhng c s duy nht ca s phn loi ny l mt trc
gic a priori vo bn cht ca cc nn vn minh. iu ny c th thy t l l ca ng rng hai th ny hin
nhin l khc nhau nh voi khc th - mt l l trc gic m nhc im ca n tr nn r rng nu chng
ta xem xt trng hp v s khc nhau ca ch St. Bernard v ch Bc Kinh. Nhng ton b cu hi (liu
hai th c thuc v cng loi hay khng) l khng th cho php c, v n da trn phng php khoa hc
ch ngha, phng php coi cc tp th gi nh chng l cc thn th vt l hay sinh hc. Mc d phng
php ny thng b ph phn (xem, th d, F. A. von Hayek, Economica, vol. X, cc tr. 41 ff.) nhng ph
phn ny cha bao gi nhn c tr li tho ng.
70
Toynbee, op. cit., vol. 1, tr. 176

80

S dng cc thut ng khc c lit k trn t vt l hc sang cho x hi ko theo

nhng hiu lm rt ging th. Thng s p dng ny l hon ton v hi. Khng c hi
g, th d, nu chng ta m t nhng thay i trong t chc x hi, trong cc phng php
sn xut, v. v, nh nhng chuyn ng. Nhng chng ta phi thy r rng l n thun
chng ta ang s dng mt n d, v li l mt n d hi d gy lm lc. V trong vt l
hc khi chng ni v chuyn ng ca mt vt th hay ca mt h thng cc vt th, th
chng ta khng c nh ng rng vt th hay h thng c ni n tri qua bt k s
thay i bn trong hay cu trc no, m ch l n thay i v tr tng i ca n i vi
mt h thng to (c chn mt cch tu ) no . Ngc vi iu ny, nh x hi
hc hiu s chuyn ng ca x hi l mt s thay i cu trc hay ni ti no . Anh
ta, do , s cho rng mt chuyn ng ca x hi phi c gii thch bng cc lc
trong khi nh vt l cho rng ch nhng thay i ca chuyn ng, ch khng phi bn
thn chuyn ng, phi c gii thch.71 Cc tng v tc ca chuyn ng x hi,
hay v ng i , hay din tin, hay chiu ca n, tng t l v hi chng no chng
c dng ch truyn t n tng trc gic no ; nhng nu c dng vi bt k
th g ging nh s kiu k khoa hc, th chng n thun tr thnh bit ng khoa hc
ch ngha, hay chnh xc hn, bit ng chnh th lun. Phi tha nhn, bt k loi thay
i no ca mt nhn t x hi c th o c th d, tng dn s - c th c trnh
by bng th nh mt ng, ht nh qu o ca mt vt th chuyn ng. Nhng r
rng l mt biu nh vy khng miu t ci m ngi ta hiu l chuyn ng ca x
hi ch rng mt dn s dng c th tri qua mt chn ng x hi trit . Tt nhin,
chng ta c th kt hp bt k s lng no ca cc biu nh vy vo mt biu din a
chiu duy nht. Nhng mt biu kt hp nh vy khng th c ni l i din cho
qu o chuyn ng ca x hi; n khng ni cho chng ta nhiu hn so vi cc biu
n l cng nhau; n khng biu din bt k chuyn ng no ca ton b x hi, m
ch l nhng thay i ca cc kha cnh c chn lc. tng v chuyn ng ca bn
thn x hi tng rng x hi, ging nh mt vt th vt l, c th nh mt tng th
chuyn ng dc theo mt qu o no v theo mt chiu no n thun ch l
mt s ln ln chnh th lun.72
Hi vng, c bit l, mt ngy p tri no y chng ta c th tm thy cc qui lut
chuyn ng ca x hi, ht nh Newton tm thy cc qui lut chuyn ng ca cc
vt th vt l, chng l g khc m l kt qu ca nhng s hiu lm ny. V khng c
chuyn ng no ca x hi theo bt k ngha no tng t hay ging vi chuyn ng
ca cc vt th vt l, nn khng th c qui lut no nh vy.
71

iu ny l vy v nh lut qun tnh.- V mt th d ca mt n lc khoa hc ch ngha in hnh

tnh cc lc chnh tr vi s tr gip ca nh l Pythagoras, xem ch thch 9 ca chng III trn.
72
S ln ln do ni v chuyn ng, lc, chiu, v.v. to ra c th c o bng cch n ci m
Henry Adams, mt s gia M ni ting, hi vng mt cch nghim tc xc nh din tin ca lch s
bng cch c nh v tr ca hai im trn ng i ca n - mt im nm th k th mi ba, im kia
trong thi i ring ca ng. ng ta ni vi mnh v n ca ng: Vi s gip ca hai im nyta
hi vng phng chiu ng i ca lch s ra pha trc v ra pha sau mt cch v tn, bi v, ng lp
lun bt k hc tr no cng c th thy rng con ngi nh mt lc phi c o bng chuyn ng, t
mt im c c nh (The Education of Henry Adams, 1918, tr. 434 f.). Nh mt th d mi y hn, ti
c th trch nhn xt ca Waddington (Science and Ethics, tr. 17 f.) rng mt h thng x hi l mt ci
g m s tn ti ca n v bn cht dnh dng n chuyn ng dc theo mt qu o tin ho, v
rng (tr. 18 f.) bn cht ca cng hin ca khoa hc cho o c hc l s khm ph bn cht, c tnh
v chiu ca qu trnh tin ho trn th gii nh mt tng th

81

Nhng, h s ni, s tn ti ca cc xu hng hay khuynh hng trong thay i x hi

kh c th nghi ng: mi nh thng k c th tnh ton nhng xu hng nh th. Nhng
xu hng ny khng so snh c vi nh lut Newton v qun tnh? Cu tr li l: cc
xu hng tn ti, hoc chnh xc hn, gi thit v cc xu hng thng l mt cng c
thng k hu ch. Song cc xu hng khng phi l cc qui lut. Mt tuyn b khng
nh s tn ti ca mt xu hng l mang tnh tn ti, khng phi ph qut. (Mt qui lut
ph qut, mt khc, khng khng nh s tn ti; ngc li: nh c chng t cui
mc 20, n khng nh tnh khng th c ca iu ny hay iu khc.73) V mt tuyn b
khng nh s tn ti ca mt xu hng ti mt thi im v mt a im no s ch
l mt tuyn b mang tnh lch s c nht, khng phi mt qui lut ph qut. Tm quan
trng v thc tin ca tnh trng logic ny l ng k: trong khi chng ta c th t c s
cho cc tin on khoa hc trn cc qui lut, chng ta khng th (nh mi nh thng k
thn trng u bit) t c s cho chng ch trn s tn ti ca cc xu hng. Mt xu
hng (chng ta li c th ly tng dn s nh mt th d) ko di hng trm thm ch
hng ngn nm c th thay i trong vng mt thp k, hay thm ch nhanh hn th.
Quan trng ch ra rng cc qui lut v cc xu hng l nhng th hon ton khc
nhau.74 Khng c my nghi ng rng thi quen ln ln cc xu hng vi cc qui lut,
cng vi quan st trc gic v cc xu hng (nh tin b k thut), khch l cc thuyt
trung tm ca ch ngha tin ho v ch ngha lch s- cc hc thuyt v nhng qui lut
khng lay chuyn c ca tin ho sinh hc v v nhng qui lut khng th o ngc
ca chuyn ng x hi. V cng s ln ln v trc gic ny cng khch l hc thuyt ca
Comte v nhng qui lut ca s k tip nhau - mt thuyt vn cn rt c nh hng.
S phn bit, ni ting t Comte v Mill, gia cc qui lut v ng tn ti, c cho l
tng ng vi tnh hc, v cc qui lut ca s k tip, c cho l tng ng vi ng
hc, phi tha nhn c th c din gii theo mt cch hp l; tc l nh s phn bit
gia cc qui lut khng vin dn n khi nim thi gian, v cc qui lut hm cha thi
gian (th d, cc qui lut ni v tc ).75 Nhng y khng hon ton l ci Comte v
nhng ngi theo ng ngh. Khi ni v cc qui lut ca s k tip nhau, Comte ngh v
cc qui lut xc nh s k tip nhau ca mt chui ng ca cc hin tng trong trt
t m trong chng ta quan st chng. By gi quan trng l phi nhn ra rng cc qui
lut ng ca s k tip nhau, nh Comte tng tng ra chng, khng tn ti.
Chng chc chn khng tn ti trong phm vi ng hc. (Ti thc s hiu l ng hc).
Cch tip cn gn nht i vi h trong lnh vc khoa hc t nhin v c l l ci ng
ngh ti l cc chu k t nhin nh cc ma, cc tun trng, s tr li ca cc t
thin thc [s che khut nhau ca cc thin th], hay c l s u a ca qu lc. Nhng
cc tnh chu k ny, m trong vt l hc c cho l c tnh ng hc (mc d dng), li
73

Xem cun Logic of Scientific Discovery ca ti, mc 15, ni a ra cc l do coi cc tuyn b tn ti

l mang tinh siu hnh hc (theo ngha phi khoa hc); xem c ch thch 28 di y.
74
Mt qui lut, tuy vy, c th khng nh rng di cc hon cnh nht nh (cc iu kin ban u) cc
xu hng nht nh c th xut hin; hn na, sau mt xu hng c gii thch nh vy, c kh nng
pht biu mt qui lut tng ng vi xu hng; xem c ch thch 29 di y.
75
C th ng nhc n rng kinh t hc cn bng khng nghi ng g l ng (theo ngha hp l i lp
vi ngha theo Comte ca t ny), cho d thi gian khng xut hin trong phng trnh ca n. V l
thuyt ny khng khng nh rng cn bng c thc hin bt c u; n n thun ch khng nh rng
mi s nhiu lon (v nhiu lon xy ra lin tc) ko theo mt s iu chnh - bng chuyn ng tin ti
cn bng. Trong vt l hc, tnh hc l l thuyt v cc cn bng v khng phi v cc chuyn ng ti cn
bng; mt h thng tnh y khng di chuyn.

82

l tnh hn l ng theo ngha ca Comte; v trong mi trng hp chng kh c th

c gi l cc qui lut (v chng ph thuc vo cc iu kin c bit thnh hnh trong
h thng mt tri; xem mc sau). Ti s gi chng l cc ta-qui lut [quasi-law] ca s
k tip.
im mu cht l th ny: mc d chng ta c th gi thit rng bt k s k tip nhau
thc t no ca cc hin tng din ra theo cc qui lut ca t nhin, rt quan trng
nhn ra rng trn thc tin khng chui no ca, th d, ba hay nhiu s kin c th lin
kt vi nhau mt cch nhn qu li din ra theo bt k mt qui lut n nht no ca t
nhin. Nu gi lm rung cy v qu to ca Newton ri xung t, chng ai ph nhn
rng cc s kin ny c th c m t bng cc qui lut nhn qu. Nhng khng c mt
qui lut ring duy nht no, nh qui lut hp dn, thm ch cng chng c mt tp duy
nht no ca cc qui lut, m t s k tip nhau thc s hay c th ca cc s kin lin
kt vi nhau mt cch nhn qu; ngoi qui lut hp dn, chng ta phi xem xt n cc
qui lut gii thch p sut gi; gii thch cc chuyn ng git ca cnh cy; ng sut
cng trong cung qu to; vt thm do va p ca qu to gy ra; cc qu trnh ho hc
do vt dp gy ra k tip sau tt c nhng th ny, v. v. tng rng bt k chui hay s
k tip nhau c th no ca cc s kin (tr cc th d nh chuyn ng ca mt qu lc
hay ca h thng mt tri) c th c m t hay gii thch bng bt k mt qui lut no,
hay bng bt k mt tp xc nh no ca cc qui lut, n gin l tng sai lm. Chng
c qui lut no ca s k tip nhau, cng khng c qui lut ca tin ho.
Th m Comte v Mill tng tng cc qui lut lch s ca h v s k tip nhau
nh cc qui lut xc nh mt chui cc s kin lch s trong trt t ca s xut hin thc
t ca chng. iu ny c th thy t cch m Mill ni v mt phng php, m
ct li l c gng, bng nghin cu v phn tch cc s thc chung ca lch s
khm ph ra qui lut ca s tin b; qui lut , mt khi c xc nh, phi
cho php chng ta tin on cc s kin tng lai, ht nh sau vi s hng ca
mt chui s v tn trong i s, chng ta c kh nng d ra nguyn l v s u
n trong cu to ca chng, v tin on cc s hng cn li bt k no ca
chui m ta thch.76

Bn thn Mill ph phn phng php ny; song ph phn ca ng (xem on u ca

mc 28) tha nhn hon ton kh nng tm thy cc qui lut ca s k tip nhau tng t
nh cc qui lut ca cc chui ton hc, du cho ng by t s nghi ng liu trt t ca
s k tip nhau m lch s by ra cho chng ta c th ng u nghim ngt
c so snh vi mt chui ton hc hay khng.77
By gi chng ta thy l khng c qui lut no xc nh s k tip nhau ca mt
dy ng nh vy ca cc s kin.78 Mt khc, c th c cc xu hng mang c tnh
ng ny; th d, s tng dn s. V vy c th ng rng Mill ngh n cc xu hng
nh vy khi ng ni v cc qui lut ca s k tip nhau. V s nghi ng ny c xc
76

Mill, Logic, Book VI, ch. X, mc 3. V l thuyt cc tc ng tin b ca Mill ni chung, xem c Book
III, ch. XV, mc 2 f.
77
Mill dng nh b qua s thc rng ch cc chui n gin nht, nh cc chui cp s cng v cp s
nhn, mi l cc chui m vi s hng l d ra nguyn l ca chng. D to ra cc chui ton hc
phc tp hn trong hng ngn s hng c th khng khm ph ra qui lut cu to ca chng cho
d c mt qui lut nh vy.
78
V cch tip cn gn nht ti cc qui lut nh vy, xem mc 28, c bit l ch thch 29 trong mc .

83

nhn bi bn thn Mill khi ng m t qui lut lch s ca mnh v tin b nh mt xu

hng. Tho lun qui lut ny, ng by t nim tin rng xu hng ci thin chung mt xu hng tin ti mt trng thi hnh phc hn v tt hn- s tip tc, tr nhng
ngoi l ngu nhin v nht thi. y l mt nh l ca khoa hc (tc l ca khoa
hc x hi). Vic, rng Mill phi tho lun nghim tc vn liu cc hin tng ca x
hi loi ngi c quay trn theo mt qu o hay khng hoc liu chng c di chuyn,
v pha trc, theo mt ng i79 hay khng, l hp vi s ln ln c bn gia cc qui
lut v xu hng, cng nh vi tng chnh th lun rng x hi nh mt tng th c
th di chuyn- th d, ging nh mt hnh tinh.
Nhm trnh s hiu lm, ti mun lm r l ti tin rng c Comte v Mill c nhng
cng hin v i cho trit hc v phng php lun khoa hc: Ti ngh, c bit, v nhn
mnh ca Comte n cc qui lut v tin on khoa hc, v ph phn ca ng i vi l
thuyt bn cht lun ca tnh nhn qu; v v hc thuyt ca ng v ca Mill v s thng
nht ca phng php khoa hc. Tuy nhin hc thuyt ca h v cc qui lut lch s ca
s k tip nhau, ti tin, chng hn mt su tp ca cc n d c p dng sai.80

79

Xem Mill, loc. cit. Mill phn bit hai ngha ca t tin b; theo ngha rng, n ngc li vi s thay
i c chu k nhng khng hm s ci thin. (ng tho lun s thay i tin b theo ngha ny mt cch
y hn, op. cit., Book III, ch. XV). Theo ngha hp, n ng s ci thin. ng dy rng s kin tr tin
b theo ngha rng l mt vn v phng php (ti khng hiu im ny), v theo ngha hp hn l mt
nh l ca x hi hc.
80
Trong nhiu tc phm lch s ch ngha v tin ho ch ngha thng l vic khng th pht hin ra n
d kt thc u v l thuyt nghim tc bt u u. (Xem th d cc ch thch s 10 v 13 ca mc
ny). V thm ch chng ta phi i mt vi kh nng l mt s nh lch s ch ngha c th ph nhn rng
c mt s khc bit gia n d v l thuyt. Th d, hy xem xt trch dn sau t nh phn tm hc Dr.
Karin Stephen: Ti tha nhn rng gii thch hin i m ti th xut c th khng hn mt n
dti khng ngh chng ta phi xu h v cc gi thuyt khoa hc thc ra tt c u da trn n d. L
thuyt sng v nh sng c l ci g khc? (i snh vi Science and Ethics, ca Waddington, tr. 80,
xem c tr. 76 v hp dn). Nu gi nh phng php ca khoa hc vn l phng php ca bn cht lun,
tc l phng php ca vic hi n l ci g? (i snh vi mc 10 trn), v nu l thuyt sng ca nh
sng gi nh l tuyn b bn cht lun rng nh sng l chuyn ng sng, th nhn xt ny c th c
bin minh. Song s vic l, mt trong nhng khc bit chnh gia phn tm hc v l thuyt sng ca nh
sng chnh li l, trong khi ci trc vn v c bn mang tnh bn cht lun v n d, cn ci sau th khng.

84

28 PHNG PHP RT
GN. GII THCH
NHN QU. TIN DON
V TIN TRI
Ph phn ca ti i vi thuyt v cc qui lut lch s ca s k tip nhau vn cha c
thuyt phc mt kha cnh quan trng. Ti th chng t rng cc chiu hng hay
cc xu hng m cc nh lch s ch ngha pht hin ra trong s k tip nhau ca cc s
kin c gi l lch s, khng phi l cc qui lut, nhiu nht nu l cc xu hng. V
ti ch ra v sao mt xu hng, ngc vi mt qui lut, ni chung li khng c dng
nh c s cho cc tin on khoa hc.
Nhng i vi ph phn ny, Mill v Comte, ti tin, l duy nht gia cc nh lch s
ch ngha kha cnh ny, vn c th cho mt li p li. Mill c l c th tha nhn mt
s ln ln no gia cc qui lut v cc xu hng. Nhng ng c th nhc nh chng ta
rng bn thn ng ph phn nhng ngi ln ln mt s ng u ca s k tip
nhau mang tnh lch s vi mt qui lut thc s ca t nhin; rng ng cn thn
nhn mnh rng mt s ng u nh vy c th ch l mt qui lut kinh nghim81
(thut ng hi gy lm lc); v rng n ch c coi l chc chn, nu trn c s s ph
hp ca suy din a priori vi bng chng lch s n c qui v a v ca mt qui lut
tht ca t nhin. V ng c th nhc nh chng ta rng thm ch ng a ra qui tc
cng bch rng ng bao gi a ra bt k khi qut ho no t lch s vo khoa hc x
hi tr phi c th ch ra l do cho vic ,82- tc l, bng cch suy din n t cc qui
lut t nhin tht s no , c th c thit lp mt cch c lp. (Cc qui lut m ng
ngh n l cc qui lut v bn cht con ngi, tc l cc qui lut tm l hc). Th tc
ny v qui cc khi qut ho lch s hay khi qut ho khc v mt tp no ca cc qui
lut c tnh khi qut cao hn, c Mill gi l phng php suy din ngc, v ng
bin h n nh phng php lch s v x hi hc ng n duy nht.
Ti sn sng tha nhn rng c sc thuyt phc no trong li p li ny. V nu
chng ta thnh cng trong qui mt xu hng v mt tp cc qui lut, th chng ta c th
c bin minh v s dng xu hng ny, ging nh mt qui lut, nh mt c s ca cc
tin on. Mt s rt gn, hay suy din ngc nh vy, c th gp phn vo vic lp ci
81

Trch dn ny v trch dn tip l t Mill, Logic, Book VI, ch. X, mc 3. Ti coi thut ng qui lut kinh
nghim-empirical law (do Mill dng nh tn cho mt qui lut c mc ph bin thp) l rt khng may
bi v tt c cc qui lut khoa hc u mang tnh kinh nghim: tt c chng u c chp nhn hay b gt
b trn c s ca chng c kinh nghim. (V cc qui lut kinh nghim ca Mill, xem c op. cit., Book III,
ch. VI v Book VI, ch. V, mc 1). S phn bit ca Mill c C. Menger chp nhn, ngi i chi cc
qui lut chnh xc vi cc qui lut kinh nghim; xem The Collected Works, vol. II, cc tr. 38 ff., v 259
ff.
82
Xem Mill, op. cit., Book VI, ch. X, mc 4. Xem c Comte, Cours de philosophie positive, IV, tr. 335.

85

h su toang hoc gia cc qui lut v cc xu hng. Sc thuyt phc ca li p tr ny

cn ni bt thm na bi s thc l phng php suy din ngc ca Mill l mt m t
kh (d chp v) ca mt th tc c dng khng ch trong cc khoa hc x hi m
trong mi khoa hc, v phm vi vt xa c lng ring ca Mill.
Bt chp nhng th nhn ny, ti tin rng ph phn ca ti vn ng, v rng s ln
ln c bn mang tnh lch s ch ngha ca cc qui lut vi cc xu hng l khng th
bo v c. Nhng chng minh iu ny, cn mt phn tch k lng v phng
php rt gn hay suy din ngc.
Khoa hc, chng ta c th ni, i din vi cc vn , ti mi thi im ca s pht
trin ca n. N khng th bt u vi nhng quan st, hay vi thu thp s liu, nh
mt s nh nghin cu phng php tin vy. Trc khi chng ta c th thu thp s liu,
mi quan tm ca chng ta v s liu thuc loi no phi c gi ln: u tin lun
lun l vn . Vn n lt n li c th c gi bi cc nhu cu thc tin, hoc
bi cc nim tin khoa hc hay tin-khoa hc m, v l do ny hay l do khc, cc nim tin
dng nh cn c xem xt li.
M mt vn khoa hc, nh qui tc, ny sinh t nhu cu cn mt s gii thch. i
theo Mill, chng ta s phn bit hai trng hp chnh: gii thch mt s kin ring hay
c bit, v gii thch s u n hay qui lut no . Mill din t n nh sau:
Mt s thc ring l c coi l c gii thch bng cch ch ra nguyn nhn
ca n, tc l, bng cch pht biu mt qui lut hay cc qui lut m s thc ring
l mt trng hp. Nh vy mt ho hon c gii thch khi chng minh c
rng n xy ra do mt tn la ri xung mt ng cht t; v theo cch tng t,
mt qui lut c coi l c gii thch khi mt qui lut hay cc qui lut khc
c ch ra, m bn thn qui lut c ni n l mt trng hp v c th
c dn ra t (cc) qui lut khc ny.83

Trng hp gii thch mt qui lut l trng hp suy din ngc, v v th l quan
trng trong khung cnh ca chng ta.
S gii ngha ca Mill v mt gii thch, hoc hay hn v mt gii thch nhn qu, v
c bn hon ton c th chp nhn c. Nhng cho cc mc ch nht nh n khng
chnh xc; v s thiu chnh xc ny ng mt phn quan trng trong vn m chng ta
quan tm y. V th ti s pht biu li vn , v ch ra nhng khc bit gia quan
im ca Mill v ca ti l u.
Ti xut rng cho mt gii thch nhn qu ca mt s kin c th no th c
ngha l suy din mt tuyn b m t s kin ny t hai loi tin : t cc qui lut ph
qut no , v t cc tuyn b c bit hay c th no m chng ta c th gi l cc
iu kin ban u c th. Th d, chng ta c th ni l chng ta cho mt gii thch
nhn qu v s t ca mt si dy no , nu chng ta nhn thy l si dy ny ch c
th mang mt trng lng mt pound, v dy chu mt trng lng hai pound. Nu
chng ta phn tch s gii thch nhn qu ny, th chng ta thy dnh n hai yu t to
thnh khc nhau. (1) Mt s gi thuyt mang c tnh ca cc qui lut t nhin; trong
trng hp ny, c l l: Vi mi dy c cu trc s cho trc (c xc nh bi vt
liu, b dy, v.v., ca n) c mt trng lng c trng w sao cho si dy s t nu bt
83

Mill, op. cit., Book III, ch. XII, mc 1. V cch dn ra hay suy din ngc ci m ng gi l cc qui
lut kinh nghim, xem c lib.cit., ch. XVI, mc 2.

86

k trng lng no nng hn w c treo ln n; v Vi mi dy c cu trc s1, trng

lng c trng w l mt pound. (2) Cc mnh c th (c bit) no cc iu
kin ban u - gn vi s kin c bit c ni n; trong trng hp ny, chng ta c
th c hai mnh : Si dy ny c cu trc s1, v Trng lng c treo ln si dy l
hai pound. Nh th chng ta c hai cu thnh, hai loi mnh khc nhau m cng nhau
chng mang li mt gii thch nhn qu y : (1) Cc mnh ph qut mang c
trng ca cc qui lut t nhin; v (2) cc mnh c th lin quan n trng hp c
bit c ni n, c gi l cc iu kin ban u. M t cc qui lut ph qut (1)
chng ta c th rt ra, vi s gip ca cc iu kin ban u (2), mnh c th sau
(3): Si dy ny s t. Kt lun ny (3) c th c gi l mt d on c th. Cc
iu kin ban u (hay chnh xc hn trng thi c chng m t) thng c ni n
nh nguyn nhn ca s kin c ni n, v d on (ng hn, s kin c m t
bi d on) nh kt qu; th d, chng ta ni t mt trng lng hai pound ln mt si
dy ch c kh nng chu c mt pound l nguyn nhn, v dy t l kt qu.84
Mt gii thch nhn qu nh vy, tt nhin, s c th chp nhn c v mt khoa hc
ch nu cc qui lut ph qut c kim nghim v cng c tt, v nu chng ta cng c
bng chng c lp no ng h nguyn nhn, tc l cc iu kin ban u.
Trc khi tip tc phn tch s gii thch nhng s u n hay cc qui lut, c th
nhn thy l nhiu th ni ln t phn tch ca chng ta v s gii thch cc s kin n
nht. Mt l, ta chng bao gi c th ni v nguyn nhn v kt qu mt cch tuyt i,
m phi ni rng mt s kin l nguyn nhn ca mt s kin khc -kt qu ca n- trong
quan h i vi qui lut ph qut no . Tuy vy, cc qui lut ph qut ny rt thng
xuyn l tm thng (nh trong th d ca chng ta) n mc, nh mt qui tc, chng ta
coi chng l nghim nhin thay cho dng chng mt cch c thc. Hai l, vic dng
mt l thuyt tin on mt s kin c th no li ng l mt kha cnh khc ca
vic dng n gii thch mt s kin nh vy. V v chng ta kim nghim mt l
thuyt bng cch so snh cc s kin c tin on vi cc s kin quan st c thc
s, phn tch ca chng ta cng ch ra cc l thuyt c th c kim nghim ra sao. Liu
chng ta dng mt l thuyt cho mc ch gii thch, tin on, hay cho mc ch kim
nghim, ph thuc vo mi quan tm ca chng ta; n ph thuc vo cu hi cc mnh
no c chng ta coi l cho trc hay khng c vn , v cc mnh no chng ta
coi l cn ph phn v kim nghim thm. (Xem mc 29).
Gii thch nhn qu mt s u n, c mt qui lut ph qut m t, l hi khc s
gii thch mt s kin n nht. Thot u, ta c th ngh rng tnh th l tng t v
rng qui lut c ni n phi c rt ra t (1) cc qui lut tng qut hn no , v
(2) cc iu kin c bit no tng ng vi cc iu kin ban u nhng khng n
84

on vn ny, phn tch s gii thch nhn qu ca mt s kin c th, l gn nh mt trch dn t cun
Logic of Scientific Discovery ca ti, mc 12. Hin ti, ti cm thy c thin hng gi mt nh
ngha ca nguyn nhn da trn ng ngha hc ca Tarski (m ti khng bit khi cun sch c
vit), theo cch nh sau: S kin (n nht) A c gi l nguyn nhn ca s kin (n nht) B khi v ch
khi t mt tp ca cc mnh ph qut ng (cc qui lut t nhin) dn n mt php ko theo quan trng
(material implication) m thnh phn u tin ca n (implicans) ch nh (designates) A v thnh phn
cui ca n (implicate) ch nh B. Tng t, chng ta c th nh ngha khi nim ca mt nguyn nhn
c chp nhn mt cch khoa hc. V khi nim ng ngha hc ca ch nh (designation), xem Carnap,
Introduction to Semantics (1942). Dng nh nh ngha trn c th c ci thin bng cch dng ci m
Carnap gi l cc khi nim tuyt i. - V mt vi nhn xt lch s lin quan n vn ca nguyn
nhn, xem ch thch 7 chng 25 ca cun The Open Society and Its Enemies ca ti.

87

nht, v dn chiu n mt loi hon cnh no . Tuy vy, iu ny khng phi vy, v
cc iu kin c bit (2) phi c pht biu tng minh trong trnh by ca qui lut m
chng ta mun gii thch; v nu khc i th qui lut ny s n gin mu thun vi (1).
(Th d, nu vi s gip ca l thuyt Newton chng ta mun gii thch qui lut rng
mi hnh tinh chuyn ng theo qu o elp, th chng ta u tin phi nu r trong trnh
by qui lut ny cc iu kin di chng ta c th khng nh tnh hp l ca n, c
l di dng: Nu nhiu hnh tinh, m khong cch gia chng l xa cho s ht ln
nhau ca chng l rt nh, chuyn ng xung quanh mt tri nng hn rt nhiu, th mi
hnh tinh chuyn ng gn theo mt hnh elp vi mt tri l mt tiu im). Ni cch
khc, trnh by mt qui lut ph qut m chng ta th gii thch phi bao gm mi iu
kin ca s hp l ca n, v nu khc i chng ta khng th khng nh n mt cch ph
qut (hay nh Mill ni, mt cch v iu kin). Do , gii thch nhn qu ca mt s
u n khng l g khc s suy din ra mt qui lut (cha cc iu kin m di s
u n c khng nh l hp l) t mt tp ca cc qui lut ph bin hn c
kim nghim v xc nhn mt cch c lp.
Nu so snh s miu t ca chng ta v s gii thch nhn qu vi miu t ca Mill,
chng ta thy rng khng c khc bit ln trong chng mc lin quan n qui cc qui lut
v cc qui lut ph bin hn, tc l, trong gii thch nhn qu ca cc s ng u. Song
tho lun ca Mill v gii thch nhn qu ca cc s kin n nht, khng c s phn
bit r gia (1) cc qui lut ph qut, v (2) cc iu kin ban u. iu ny, ch yu, do
s thiu r rng ca Mill trong vic dng t nguyn nhn m i khi ng hiu l cc s
kin n nht, v i khi l cc qui lut ph qut. Chng ta s chng t iu ny nh
hng ra sao n gii thch hay rt gn cc xu hng.
Khng th nghi ng, s rt gn hay gii thch cc xu hng l c th v mt logic. Gi
s, th d, rng chng ta thy mi hnh tinh u tin dn n gn mt tri. Th h thng
mt tri s l mt h thng ng hc theo ngha ca Comte; n s pht trin, s c mt
lch s, vi mt xu hng xc nh. Xu hng s c th c gii thch d dng trong vt
l hc Newton bng gi thit (m chng ta c th thy chng c c lp) rng khng gian
gia cc hnh tinh c vt cht c sc cn no nhi y th d, mt loi kh no .
Gi thit ny s l mt iu kin ban u c th mi m chng ta phi a thm vo cc
iu kin ban u thng thng cho cc v tr v moment ca cc hnh tinh mt thi
im nht nh. Chng no iu kin ban u mi cn duy tr, chng ta s c mt thay
i c h thng hay mt xu hng. Nu chng ta gi thit thm rng s thay i l ln,
th n phi c mt nh hng c h thng rt r rt ln sinh hc v lch s ca cc loi
khc nhau trn tri t, k c lch s loi ngi. Th d ny chng t chng ta c th, v
nguyn l, gii thch ra sao cc xu hng tin ho v lch s- thm ch cc xu hng
chung, tc l cc xu hng dai dng sut qu trnh pht trin c xem xt. Hin nhin
l cc xu hng ny s tng t nh cc ta-qui lut ca s k tip nhau (cc tnh chu k
theo ma) c nhc ti mc trc, vi s khc bit l chng s mang tnh ng.
Chng s, do , tng ng, thm ch gn gi hn so vi cc ta-qui lut tnh, vi
tng m h ca Comte v Mill v cc qui lut tin ho hay lch s ca s k tip nhau.
By gi nu c l do gi thit s ko di ca cc iu kin ban u c lin quan th, r
rng, chng ta c th gi thit rng cc xu hng ny hay cc ta qui lut ng s ko
di, nh th chng c th c dng, nh cc qui lut, lm c s cho cc tin on.
Khng nghi ng rng cc xu hng c gii thch nh vy (nh chng ta c th gi
chng), hay cc xu hng sp c gii thch, ng mt vai tr ng k trong l thuyt
88

tin ho hin i. Tr mt s xu hng nh vy gn vi s tin ho ca cc dng sinh vt

no nh cc loi c v v t gic, dng nh l mt xu hng chung tin ti s lng
tng ln v tnh a dng tng ln ca cc dng sinh vt tri ra trn mt din rng ca cc
iu kin mi trng tr thnh c th gii thch c bng cc qui lut sinh hc (cng vi
cc iu kin ban u a ra cc gi thit no lin quan n mi trng tri t ca
cc sinh vt v chng, cng vi cc qui lut, bao hm, th d, s hot ng ca c ch
quan trng c gi l chn lc t nhin).85
Tt c iu ny dng nh chng li chng ta, v thc ra ng h Mill v ch ngha lch
s. Nhng khng phi vy. Cc xu hng c gii thch c tn ti, nhng s ko di ca
chng ph thuc vo s ko di ca cc iu kin ban u c th no (m n lt n
c th i khi l cc xu hng).
Mill v cc nh lch s ch ngha theo ng li b qua s ph thuc ca cc xu hng
vo cc iu kin ban u. H hot ng vi cc xu hng gi nh chng l v iu kin,
ging nh cc qui lut. S ln ln qui lut vi xu hng86 ca h khin h tin vo cc xu
hng v iu kin (v v th tng qut); hoc, nh chng ta c th ni, vo cc xu
hng tuyt i;87 th d, trong mt khuynh hng lch s chung n tin b -mt
khuynh hng ti mt trng thi tt hn v hnh phc hn. V nu h ni chung c xem
xt vic rt gn hay qui cc khuynh hng ca h v cc qui lut, h tin rng cc
khuynh hng ny c th c dn ngay lp tc t ring cc qui lut ph qut m thi,
nh cc qui lut ca tm l hc (hay c l ca ch ngha duy vt bin chng, v.v.).

85

V mt tho lun ca cc xu hng tin ho, xem J. Huxley, Evolution (1942), ch. IX. Lin quan n l
thuyt v S Tin b Tin ho ca Huxley (op. cit., ch. X) dng nh vi ti l, tt c ci c th c
khng nh mt cch va phi l: xu hng chung tin n s a dng tng ln ca cc dng, v. v., ch
cho tuyn b rng s tin b (nh ngha ca Huxley c tho lun di y) i khi xy ra, i khi
khng; rng tin ho ca mt s dng i khi l tin b, trong khi hu ht l khng; v rng khng c l do
chung v sao chng ta phi k vng rng cc dng s xut hin trong tng lai cc dng s lm cho tin b
thm. (So vi lun im ca Huxley th d, op. cit. tr. 571- rng, nu loi ngi b qut sch, s tin b
na l cc k khng chc chn. Mc d cc l l ca ng khng thuyt phc c ti, chng ko theo mt
hm m ti c thin hng ng ; c th l, s tin b sinh hc l, nh n l, ci g ngu nhin).
V nh ngha ca Huxley v s tin b tin ho nh hiu qu sinh hc chung tng ln, tc l, nh s kim
sot tng ln i vi mi trng v c lp vi mi trng, ti cm thy ng thnh cng trong trnh by
mt cch tho ng nh ca nhiu ngi, nhng ngi dng khi nim ny. Hn na, ti tha nhn,
cc khi nim c nh ngha khng ly ngi lm trung tm; chng khng cha s nh gi no. Th
m, i gi mt s gia tng v hiu qu hay v kim sot l tin b dng nh i vi ti l s by t mt
s nh gi; n by t nim tin rng hiu qu hay s kim sot l tt, v rng s lan rng ca cuc sng v
s chinh phc vt cht cht ca n l ng mong mi. Nhng chc chn l c th chp nhn cc gi tr
rt khc. Ti khng ngh v vy rng i hi ca Huxley rng ng cho nh ngha khch quan ca s
tin b tin ho, thot c ch ngha ly con ngi lm trung tm [anthropomphism] v cc nh gi gi
tr, l c th duy tr c. (Xem op. cit., tr. 559; c tr. 565, l l chng quan im ca J. B. S. Haldane rng
tng v tin b mang tnh ly con ngi lm trung tm [anthropocentric]).
86
Rng trong trng hp ca Mill s ln ln ny chu trch nhim ch yu v nim tin ca ng vo s tn
ti ca ci ti gi l xu hng tuyt i c th thy bng nghin cu cun Logic ca ng, Book III, ch.
XVI.
87
C cc l do logic no cho vic coi nim tin vo mt xu hng tuyt i l phi khoa hc hay siu hnh
hc (so vi ch thch 14 chng ny). Mt xu hng nh vy c th c trnh by bng mt mnh
tn ti khng-c th hay c khi qut ho (Tn ti mt xu hng nh th v nh th), m chng ta
khng th kim nghim v khng c s quan st no v s lch khi xu hng c th bc b mnh ny;
v chng ta lun c th hi vng rng, v di hn, nhng s lch theo chiu ngc li s iu chnh vn
u vo y.

89

y, chng ta c th ni, l sai lm trung tm ca ch ngha lch s. Cc qui lut pht

trin ca n ho ra l cc xu hng tuyt i; cc xu hng, m, ging cc qui lut,
khng ph thuc vo cc iu kin ban u, v a chng ta theo mt chiu no vo
tng lai mt cch khng th cng li c. Chng l c s ca cc li tin tri v iu
kin, ngc li vi cc tin on khoa hc c iu kin.
Nhng c th ni g v nhng ngi thy l cc xu hng ph thuc vo cc iu kin
ban u, v th tm ra cc iu kin ny v trnh by chng mt cch tng minh? Cu
tr li ca ti l ti khng c tranh chp no vi h. Ngc li: khng th c nghi ng g
l c cc xu hng. V th chng ta c nhim v nng n v gii thch chng mc
chng ta c th, tc l xc nh cc iu kin chnh xc nht mc c th m di cc
iu kin chng c hiu lc. (Xem mc 32).88
im quan trng l cc iu kin ny rt d b b qua. Th d, c mt xu hng tin
n tch t cc t liu sn xut (nh Marx din t). Nhng chng ta hu nh khng
cho rng n ko di khi dn c gim nhanh; v mt s gim nh vy n lt n li c
th ph thuc vo cc iu kin ngoi kinh t, th d, vo cc sng ch bt ng, hay c
th hnh dung l ph thuc vo tc ng sinh l hc (c l sinh ho hc) trc tip ca mi
trng cng nghip. Thc ra, c v s cc iu kin kh d; v c kh nng thm tra
cc kh nng ny trong vic tm kim cc iu kin tht ca mt xu hng, chng ta lin
tc phi c hnh dung ra cc iu kin m di xu hng c ni n s bin mt.
Nhng y chnh l ci nh lch s ch ngha khng th lm. Anh ta tin vng chc vo xu
hng a thch ca mnh, v cc iu kin m di n s bin mt i vi anh ta l
khng th tng tng ni. S khn cng ca ch ngha lch s, chng ta c th ni, l s
ngho nn v tr tng tng. Nh lch s ch ngha lin tc mng nhic nhng ngi
khng th tng tng s thay i trong th gii nh b ca h; th m dng nh bn
thn nh lch s ch ngha li km v tng tng, v anh ta khng th hnh dung mt s
thay i v cc iu kin ca s thay i.

88

Nu chng ta thnh cng trong xc nh cc iu kin ring hon ton hay y c ca mt xu hng
n nht t, th chng ta c th trnh by qui lut ph qut: Mi khi c cc iu kin thuc loi c th s c
mt xu hng thuc loi t. tng v mt qui lut nh vy l khng th ch trch c nhn t quan im
logic; nhng n rt khc tng ca Comte v Mill v qui lut ca s k tip nhau ci, ging nh mt xu
hng tuyt i, hay qui lut ca mt chui ton hc, c trng cho s din tin chung ca cc s kin.
Ngoi ra, lm sao chng ta c th xc nh rng cc iu kin ca chng ta l ? Hay ci l cu hi cng
th: lm sao chng ta c th kim nghim mt qui lut c dng nh trn? (Chng ta khng c qun rng
chng ta ang tho lun lp trng (b) ca mc 27, lp trng dnh dng n i hi rng xu hng c th
c kim nghim.) kim nghim mt qui lut nh vy chng ta phi c ht sc to ra cc iu kin m
di n khng ng; cho mc ch ny chng ta phi th chng t rng cc iu kin thuc loi c l
khng , v rng ngay c vi s hin din ca chng, mt xu hng loi t khng lun lun xut hin. Mt
phng php ging th ny (c phc tho mc 32) s khng th ch trch c. Nhng n khng th
p dng c cho cc xu hng tuyt i ca nh lch s ch ngha, v chng l nhng vic i cng tt yu
v c mt khp ni ca i sng x hi, v khng th c loi b bi bt k can thip kh d no vi cc
iu kin x hi. (Chng ta y li c th thy tnh cht siu hnh ca nim tin vo cc xu hng khng
c th, nh cc xu hng chung; cc mnh by t mt nim tin nh vy khng th c kim nghim;
xem c ch thch trc).

90

29 S THNG NHT
CA PHNG PHP
Ti m ch trong mc trc rng cc phng php suy din c phn tch c
s dng rng ri v l quan trng nhiu hn l, th d, Mill bao gi ngh n. Gi
ny s c tho lun t m thm, ri mt cht nh sng vo s tranh chp gia ch
ngha theo t nhin v ch ngha phn t nhin. Trong mc ny ti s xut hc thuyt
v tnh thng nht ca phng php; tc l, quan im rng tt c cc khoa hc l thuyt
hay khi qut ho u dng cng phng php, bt lun chng l cc khoa hc t nhin
hay x hi. (Ti hon vic tho lun cc khoa hc lch s cho n mc 31). ng thi,
mt s hc thuyt ca ch ngha lch s m ti cha kho st s c cp n, nh
cc vn ca Khi qut ho; ca Bn cht lun; ca vai tr ca Hiu bit Trc gic; ca
Tnh khng chnh xc ca Tin on; ca Tnh phc tp; v ca p dng cc Phng
php nh lng.
Ti khng c khng nh rng khng c khc bit no gia cc phng php ca cc
khoa hc l thuyt t nhin v x hi; nhng s khc bit nh vy r rng l c, thm ch
gia bn thn cc khoa hc t nhin vi nhau, cng nh gia cc khoa hc x hi khc
nhau. (Hy so snh, th d, phn tch cc th trng cnh tranh v phn tch cc ngn ng
Romance). Nhng ti ng vi Comte v Mill v vi nhiu ngi khc, nh C.
Menger rng cc phng php trong hai lnh vc v cn bn l nh nhau (cho d cc
phng php m ti ngh n c th khc cc phng php m h ngh ti). Cc phng
php lun ct vic cung cp nhng gii thch nhn qu suy din, v kim nghim
chng (thng qua cc tin on). Phng php ny i khi c gi l phng php
mang tnh gi thuyt-suy din,89 hoc thng xuyn hn l phng php gi thuyt, v n
khng t s chc chn tuyt i cho bt k mnh khoa hc no m n kim nghim;
ng hn, cc mnh ny lun lun vn mang c tnh ca cc gi thuyt thm d, du
cho c tnh thm d ca chng c th khng cn hin nhin sau khi chng vt qua
rt nhiu kim nghim nghim ngt.
Bi v tnh thm d hay tnh tm thi ca chng, cc gi thuyt c hu ht cc nh
nghin cu phng php coi nh tm thi theo ngha rng cui cng chng phi c
thay th bi cc l thuyt c chng minh (hoc ch t bi cc l thuyt c th c
chng minh l c xc sut cao, theo ngha no y ca php tnh xc sut). Ti tin rng
quan im ny l sai v rng n dn n hng lot kh khn hon ton khng cn thit.
Nhng vn ny90 y tng i khng quan trng. Ci quan trng l nhn ra rng
89

Xem V. Kraft, Die Grundformen der wissenschaftlichen Methoden (1925).

Xem cun Logic of Scientific Discovery ca ti, m mc ny da vo, c bit hc thuyt v kim
nghim bng suy din (ch ngha suy din deductivism) v thuyt v tnh d tha ca bt k s qui
np thm no, v cc l thuyt lun vn mang tnh gi thuyt ca chng (gi thuyt lun-hypotheticism),
v hc thuyt rng cc kim nghim khoa hc l cc n lc chn tht chng minh cc l thuyt l sai
(thuyt loi tr-eliminationism); xem c tho lun v tnh c th kim nghim [testability] v tnh c th
chng minh l sai [falsifiability].
S i lp c ch ra y gia ch ngha suy din v ch ngha qui np, trong kha cnh no tng
ng vi s phn bit c in gia ch ngha duy l v ch ngha kinh nghim: Descartes l mt nh suy
90

91

trong khoa hc chng ta lun lun quan tm n cc gii thch, tin on, v kim
nghim, v rng phng php kim nghim cc gi thuyt lun l nh nhau (xem mc
trc). T gi thuyt cn c kim nghim th d, mt qui lut ph qut- cng vi cc
mnh khc no m v mc ch ny c coi l khng c vn - th d, cc iu
kin ban u no chng ta suy ra d on no . Sau chng ta i chiu d on
ny, mi khi c th, vi cc kt qu th nghim hay nhng quan st khc. S thng nht
vi chng c coi l s lm vng thm hay s cng c ca gi thuyt, tuy nhin khng
nh chng minh cui cng; s khng thng nht r rt c coi l s bc b [refutation]
hoc s chng minh l sai [falsification].
Theo phn tch ny, khng c s khc bit ln gia gii thch, tin on v kim
nghim. S khc bit khng phi l khc bit v cu trc logic, m ng hn l s khc
bit v nhn mnh; n ph thuc vo ci g chng ta coi l vn ca mnh v ci g
chng ta khng coi l nh vy. Nu vn ca chng ta khng phi l tm mt d on,
m l i tm cc iu kin ban u hay cc qui lut ph qut no (hay c hai) m t
chng ta c th suy din ra mt d on cho trc, th chng ta ang kim mt gii
thch (v d on cho trc tr thnh explicandum [ci cn c gii thch]). Nu
chng ta coi cc qui lut v cc iu kin ban u l cho trc (hn l phi c tm) v
s dng chng ch suy din ra d on, nhm qua nhn c thng tin mi no ,
din ch ngha, v ng hnh dung mi khoa hc nh cc h thng suy din, trong khi cc nh kinh
nghim Anh, k t Bacon tr i, tt c u hnh dung cc khoa hc nh thu thp nhng quan st m t
nhn c cc khi qut ho bng qui np.
Nhng Descartes tin rng cc nguyn l, cc tin ca h thng suy din, phi l chc chn v hin
nhin r rng v dt khot. Chng da trn s thu hiu ca l tr. (Chng l tng hp v hp l a priori,
theo ngn ng ca Kant). Ngc li vi iu ny, ti coi chng nh cc phng on mang tnh thm d,
hay cc gi thuyt.
Cc gi thuyt ny, ti cho rng, v nguyn l phi l c th bc b c: chnh y ti ri xa hai nh
suy din ch ngha hin i v i nht, Henry Poincar v Pierre Duhem.
C Poincar v Duhem u nhn ra tnh khng th ca vic hnh dung cc l thuyt ca vt l hc nh
nhng khi qut ho mang tnh qui np. H nhn ra rng cc php o quan st m chng to thnh ci c
cho l xut pht im cho cc khi qut ho, ngc li, li l nhng din gii di nh sng ca cc l
thuyt. V h t chi khng ch ch ngha qui np, m c nim tin duy l ch ngha vo cc nguyn l tng
hp, c hiu lc a priori hay cc tin . Poincar din gii chng nh l ng mt cch gii tch, nh cc
nh ngha; Duhem (ging nh Hng y gio ch Bellarino v Gim mc Berkeley) din gii chng nh cc
cng c, nh cc phng tin xp th t cc qui lut thc nghim cc qui lut thc nghim m, ng
ngh, nhn c bng qui np. Cc l thuyt nh th khng th cha hoc thng tin ng hay thng tin sai:
chng chng l g m ch l cc cng c, v chng ch c th l thun tin hay bt tin, kinh t hay phi kinh
t; mm do v tinh t, hay cng nhc v th thin. (Nh th, Duhem ni, i theo Berkeley, khng th c
cc l do logic v sao chng ta li khng chp nhn tt c hai hay nhiu l thuyt mu thun ln nhau.) Ti
hon ton thng nht vi c hai tc gi v i ny trong t chi ch ngha qui np cng nh lng tin vo
tnh hp l tng hp, a priori ca cc l thuyt vt l. Song ti khng th chp nhn quan im ca h rng
khng th a cc h thng l thuyt kho st kim nghim. Mt s trong s chng l c th kim
nghim c, ti ngh; tc l, c th bc b c v nguyn tc; v v th chng l tng hp (hn l gii
tch); mang tnh kinh nghim (hn l tin nghim a priori); v giu thng tin (hn l n thun mang tnh
cng c). Lin quan n ph phn ni ting ca Duhem i vi cc th nghim quyt nh, ng ch chng t
rng cc th nghim quyt nh chng bao gi c th chng minh hay thit lp mt l thuyt; nhng khng
u ng chng t rng cc th nghim quyt nh khng th bc b mt l thuyt. Phi tha nhn, Duhem
ng khi ng ni rng chng ta c th kim nghim ch cc h thng l thuyt to ln v phc tp hn l cc
gi thuyt b c lp; nhng nu chng ta kim nghim hai h thng nh vy m chng ch khc nhau duy
nht mt gi thuyt, v nu chng ta c th thit k cc th nghim bc b h thng th nht trong khi li
h thng th hai c cng c rt tt, th chng ta c th c c s hp l nu chng ta qui s tht bi ca
h thng th nht cho gi thuyt m hai h thng khc nhau.

92

th chng ta ang th lm mt d on. (y l trng hp chng ta p dng cc kt qu

khoa hc ca chng ta). V nu chng ta coi mt trong cc tin , tc l hoc mt qui
lut ph qut hoc mt iu kin ban u, nh l c vn , v coi d on nh ci g
cn c so snh vi cc kt qu ca kinh nghim, th chng ta ni v mt kim nghim
ca tin c vn .
Da vo kt qu ca cc kim nghim chng ta la chn cc gi thuyt ng vng vi
kim nghim, hay loi b cc gi thuyt khng ng vng, v v vy cc gi thuyt ny
b loi ra. Quan trng nhn ra cc h qu ca quan im ny. Chng l th ny: mi
kim nghim u c th c din gii nh n lc gt b cc l thuyt sai - tm cc
im yu ca mt l thuyt nhm loi b n nu n b kim nghim chng minh l sai.
Quan im ny i khi c coi l nghch l; mc tiu ca chng ta, h ni, l i thit lp
cc l thuyt, khng phi i loi b cc l thuyt sai. Nhng ng v mc tiu ca chng ta
l i thit lp cc l thuyt tt nht m chng ta c th, nn chng ta phi kim nghim
chng nghim ngt nht m chng ta c th; tc l, chng ta phi c tm ra li ca chng,
chng ta phi c chng minh chng l sai. Ch nu chng ta khng th chng minh
c chng l sai bt chp cc n lc tt nht ca mnh th chng ta mi c th ni rng
chng vt qua cc kim nghim nghim ngt. y l l do v sao khm ph ra cc
trng hp xc nhn mt l thuyt c ngha rt t nu chng ta khng th, v tht bi,
khm ph ra nhng s bc b. V nu chng ta khng c tnh ph phn chng ta s
lun lun tm thy ci mnh mun: chng ta s tm, v thy, cc th d xc nhn, v chng
ta s b qua, v khng nhn thy, bt k th g c th nguy him cho cc l thuyt yu
chung ca mnh. Bng cch ny qu d nhn c ci dng nh l bng chng
khng th chng li ni, ng h mt l thuyt m, nu c tip cn mt cch ph phn,
c th b bc b. lm cho phng php la chn bng loi b hot ng, v m bo
rng ch cc l thuyt ph hp nht cn li, th phi lm cho cuc u tranh ca chng v
s tn ti l gay gt i vi chng.
y, trn nhng nt i cng, l phng php ca tt c mi khoa hc c kinh
nghim hu thun. Nhng phng php m theo chng ta nhn c cc l thuyt hay
gi thuyt ca chng ta th sao? V cc khi qut ho qui np, v cch m chng ta i t
quan st n l thuyt th sao? i vi cu hi ny (v vi cc thuyt c tho lun
mc 1, trong chng mc chng cha c cp n trong mc 26) ti s cho hai cu tr
li. (a) Ti khng tin rng chng ta tng a ra cc khi qut ho qui np theo ngha
rng chng ta bt u vi cc quan st v c gng dn ra cc l thuyt t chng. Ti tin,
nh kin rng chng ta tin hnh theo cch ny, l mt loi o th, v rng chng giai
on no ca pht trin khoa hc chng ta li bt u m khng c ci g mang bn
cht ca mt l thuyt, nh mt gi thuyt, hoc mt nh kin, hoc mt vn - thng
l mt vn k thut m theo cch no n hng dn cc quan st ca chng ta, v
gip chng ta la chn t v s cc i tng quan st ra nhng ci c th l l th.91
Nhng nu tnh hnh l vy, th phng php loi b - ci chng l g khc phng php
th v sai c tho lun mc 24- li lun lun c th c p dng. Tuy vy, ti
khng ngh l cn phi khng khng vi im ny cho tho lun hin thi ca chng ta.
V chng ta c th ni (b) rng nhn t quan im ca khoa hc th chng lin quan g
vic liu chng ta nhn c cc l thuyt ca mnh bng chp ly cc kt lun v cn c
91

V mt th d ng ngc nhin v cch theo ngay c nhng quan st thc vt hc c hng dn bi

l thuyt (v trong chng thm ch c th b nh kin nh hng), xem O. Frankel, Cytology and
Taxonomy of Hebe, ect., trong Nature, vol. 147 (1941), tr. 117.

93

hay n thun bng vp phi chng (tc l, qua trc gic), hay khc i bng mt th tc
qui np no . Cu hi, Anh u tin tm ra l thuyt ca mnh th no? lin quan, nh
n tng lin quan, n vn hon ton ring t, ngc li vi cu hi, Anh kim
nghim l thuyt ca mnh th no? l cu hi tht s quan trng v mt khoa hc. V
phng php kim nghim c m t y l mu m; n dn n cc quan st mi, v
n quan h cho v ly ln nhau gia l thuyt v quan st.
M tt c th ny, ti tin, khng ch ng cho cc khoa hc t nhin m cho c cc
khoa hc x hi. V trong cc khoa hc x hi cn thm ch hin nhin hn trong cc
khoa hc t nhin rng chng ta khng th nhn thy v quan st cc i tng ca mnh
trc khi chng ta ngh v chng. V hu ht cc i tng ca khoa hc x hi, nu
khng phi tt c, u l cc i tng tru tng; chng l cc kin trc l thuyt. (Ngay
c chin tranh hay qun i u l cc khi nim tru tng, du iu ny nghe c th
l k i vi mt s ngi no . Ci c th l nhng ngi b git; hay nhng ngi
n ng v n b mc ng phc, v.v.). Cc i tng ny, cc kin trc l thuyt ny
c dng din gii kinh nghim ca chng ta, l kt qu ca vic xy dng cc m
hnh nht nh (c bit ca cc nh ch), gii thch cc kinh nghim nht nh - mt
phng php l thuyt quen thuc trong cc khoa hc t nhin (ni chng ta xy dng cc
m hnh ca mnh v cc nguyn t, phn t, cht rn, cht lng, v.v.). N l mt phn
ca phng php gii thch bng rt gn, hay suy din t cc gi thuyt. Rt thng
xuyn chng ta khng c thc v s thc rng chng ta hot ng vi cc gi thuyt
hay cc l thuyt, v v th chng ta nhm ln cc m hnh l thuyt ca mnh vi cc th
c th. y l loi sai lm qu ph bin.92 S thc rng cc m hnh thng c dng
theo cch ny, gii thch v bng cch ph hu - cc thuyt ca bn cht lun
phng php (so mc 10). N gii thch chng, v cc m hnh c c tnh tru tng hay
l thuyt, v nh th chng ta c th cm thy rng chng ta thy n nh mt loi linh
hn hay bn cht vnh cu trong hay ng sau cc s kin thay i, c th quan st c.
V n ph hu chng bi v nhim v ca l thuyt x hi l i xy dng v phn tch cc
m hnh x hi hc ca chng ta mt cch thn trng bng cc thut ng m t hay duy
danh, ni cch khc, bng cc thut ng v cc c th, v cc thi , k vng, quan h
v.v. ca h, - mt nh c th c gi l ch ngha c nhn phng php lun.
Tnh thng nht ca cc phng php ca cc khoa hc t nhin v x hi c th c
minh ho v bo v bi phn tch hai on trch t Scientism and the Study of Society ca
Gio s Hayek.93
Trong on u ca cc on ny, Gio s Hayek vit:
Nh vt l mun hiu cc vn ca cc khoa hc x hi vi s gip ca s
tng t t lnh vc ring ca mnh c th phi tng tng mt th gii trong
anh ta bit bng quan st trc tip bn trong cc nguyn t v chng c kh
nng lm cc th nghim vi cc ming vt cht cng chng c c hi quan st
nhiu hn nhng tng tc ca tng i t nguyn t trong mt thi gian hn ch.
T kin thc v cc loi nguyn t khc nhau anh ta c th xy dng cc m hnh
theo mi cch khc nhau trong chng c th kt hp thnh cc n v ln hn v
lm cho cc m hnh ny ti to cng chnh xc hn tt c cc tnh cht ca vi
92

Vi on vn ny v on vn tip theo, so vi F. A. von Hayek, Scientism and the Study of Society

phn I v phn II, Economica, vols. ix v x, ni ch ngha tp th phng php lun b ph phn v ch
ngha c nhn phng php lun c tho lun chi tit .
93
V hai on trch xem Economica, vol. ix, tr. 289 f. (ti nhn mnh).

94

trng hp trong anh ta c th quan st cc hin tng phc tp hn. Nhng

cc qui lut ca th gii v m m anh ta c th dn ra t hiu bit ca mnh v th
gii vi m s lun lun vn mang tnh suy din; bi v s hiu bit hn ch ca anh
ta v cc s liu ca tnh hnh phc tp, cc qui lut ny hu nh chng bao gi cho
php anh ta tin on chnh xc kt qu ca mt tnh th c bit; v anh ta chng bao
gi c th xc minh chng bng th nghim c kim sot- mc d chng c th b
bc b bi s quan st cc s kin m theo l thuyt ca anh ta l khng th c
c.

Ti tha nhn l cu u tin ca on trch ny ch ra nhng khc bit no gia

khoa hc t nhin v x hi. Nhng phn cn li ca on trch, ti tin, bin h cho s
thng nht hon ton ca phng php. V nu y l m t ng n v phng php
ca khoa hc x hi, v ti khng nghi ng, th n chng t rng n ch khc cc loi
din gii v phng php ca khoa hc t nhin m chng ta loi b. Ti ngh ch yu
n din gii qui np ch ngha, cho rng trong cc khoa hc t nhin chng ta tin
hnh mt cch c h thng t quan st n l thuyt bng phng php khi qut ho no
, v rng thm ch chng ta c th xc minh, hay c l thm ch chng minh, l thuyt
ca mnh bng phng php qui np no . Ti ch trng mt quan im rt khc
y - mt din gii ca phng php khoa hc nh mang tnh suy din, gi thuyt, chn
lc bng cch chng minh l sai, v.v. V m t ny v phng php ca khoa hc t
nhin hon ton thng nht vi m t ca Gio s Hayek v phng php ca khoa hc
x hi. (Ti c mi l do tin rng din gii ca ti v cc phng php ca khoa hc
khng b nh hng bi bt k hiu bit no v cc phng php ca cc khoa hc x
hi; v u tin khi ti pht trin n, ti ch ngh n cc khoa hc t nhin,94 v ti
hu nh chng bit g v cc khoa hc x hi).
Nhng ngay c cc khc bit c m ch cu u tin ca on trch cng khng
ln nh n thot u c v. Khng nghi ng g l chng ta c hiu bit trc tip hn v
bn trong ca nguyn t con ngi so vi chng ta c v cc nguyn t vt l; nhng
hiu bit ny mang tnh trc gic. Ni cch khc, chng ta chc chn dng hiu bit ca
chng ta v chnh mnh nh khung cc gi thuyt v vi ngi khc, hay v tt c mi
ngi. Nhng cc gi thuyt ny phi c kim nghim, chng phi tri qua phng
php la chn bng loi b. (Trc gic ngn cn mt s ngi ngay c vic hnh dung
rng c ai li c th khng thch ko s c la). ng l, quan st trc tip khng gip
nh vt l khi anh ta nh khung cc gi thuyt ca mnh v cc nguyn t; tuy nhin,
anh ta kh thng xuyn s dng loi tng tng hay trc gic yu thch no lm
cho anh ta d cm thy rng mnh quen thn mt vi thm ch bn trong ca cc nguyn
t - vi ngay c tnh kh tht thng v nh kin ca chng. Nhng trc gic ny l
chuyn ring t ca anh ta. Khoa hc ch quan tm n cc gi thuyt m trc gic ca
anh ta c th truyn cm hng, v cng ch nu chng c cc h qu phong ph, v nu
chng c th c kim nghim mt cch ng n. (V kh khn khc c cu u
tin ca Gio s Hayek nhc n, tc l kh khn tin hnh th nghim, xem mc 24).
Vi nhn xt ny c th cng ch ra cch ta nn ph phn thuyt lch s ch ngha c
trnh by mc 8, tc l, thuyt cho rng khoa hc x hi phi dng phng php hiu
trc gic.
Trong on trch th hai, Gio s Hayek, ni v cc hin tng x hi, ng vit:
94

So vi Erkenntnis, III, tr. 426 f., v Logik der Forschung, 1934, ca ti m tiu ph ca n c th dch
ra l: V Nhn thc lun ca cc Khoa hc T nhin.

95

s hiu bit ca chng ta v nguyn l theo cc hin tng ny c to ra, s

him khi, nu c bao gi, cho php chng ta tin on kt qu chnh xc ca bt k
tnh trng c th no. Trong khi chng ta c th gii thch nguyn l trn cc hin
tng no c to ra v t s hiu bit ny c th loi tr kh nng ca cc kt
qu no , th d kh nng cng xut hin ca cc s kin no , s hiu bit ca
chng ta theo mt ngha s ch mang tnh ph nh, tc l n s ch cho php chng
ta loi tr cc kt qu no nhng khng cho php chng ta thu hp di ca cc
kh nng hp n mc ch cn li mt kh nng.

on trch ny, thay cho m t mt tnh th ring bit i vi cc khoa hc x hi, n

m t mt cch hon ho c tnh ca cc qui lut t nhin m, thc ra, chng bao gi c
th lm nhiu hn l loi tr cc kh nng no . (Khng th mang nc bng sng;
xem mc 20). c bit hn tuyn b rng, nh mt qui tc, chng ta s khng c kh
nng tin on kt qu chnh xc ca bt k trng thi c th no m ra vn v tnh
khng chnh xc ca cc tin on (xem mc 5, trn). Ti dm chc rng cng c th
ni chnh xc th v th gii vt l c th. Ni chung, chng ta c th tin on cc s
kin vt l ch bng dng cch li th nghim nhn to. (H thng mt tri l trng hp
c bit -s cch li t nhin ch khng phi cch li nhn to; mt khi s cch li ca n b
ph hu do s xm nhp ca mt vt th l ln, tt c d on ca chng ta nht thit
v). Chng ta cn rt xa mi c kh nng tin on, ngay c trong vt l hc cc kt
qu chnh xc ca mt tnh trng c th, nh mt cn ma ging, hay mt ho hon.
C th a thm mt nhn xt rt ngn v vn ca tnh phc tp (xem mc 4).
Khng nghi ng g rng tnh phc tp ca n lm cho vic phn tch bt k tnh trng x
hi c th no l cc k kh khn. Nhng cng ng th vi bt k tnh trng vt l c th
no.95 nh kin ph bin rng cc tnh trng x hi l phc tp hn cc trng thi vt l
dng nh ny sinh t hai ngun. Mt trong s l chng ta buc phi so snh nhng
th khng nn c so snh; ti hiu mt mt l cc trng thi x hi c th v mt khc
l cc trng thi vt l th nghim c cch li mt cch nhn to. (Nhng ci sau c l
phi c so snh, ng hn, vi trng thi x hi c cch li mt cch nhn to nh
mt nh t, hay mt cng ng th nghim). Ngun th hai l mt lng tin c xa rng
m t mt trng thi x hi phi bao hm cc trng thi tinh thn v thm ch c th ca
tt c mi ngi lin quan (hay c l n phi thm ch c th qui c v cho chng).
Nhng lng tin ny khng c bin minh; n thm ch cn t c bin minh hn i
hi phi l rng m t mt phn ng ho hc c th phi bao hm m t ca cc trng thi
nguyn t v di-nguyn t ca tt c cc ht c bn lin quan (mc d ho hc thc ra
c th qui v vt l hc). Lng tin ny cng ch ra cc du vt ca quan im ph bin
rng cc thc th x hi nh cc nh ch hay cc hip hi l cc thc th t nhin c th
nh mt m ngi, hn l cc m hnh tru tng c xy dng din gii cc quan
h tru tng c la chn no gia cc c nhn.
Nhng thc ra, c cc l do chnh ng, khng ch cho nim tin rng khoa hc x hi l
t phc tp hn vt l hc, m cho c nim tin rng cc tnh trng x hi c th ni chung
l t phc tp hn cc trng thi vt l c th. V trong hu ht cc trng thi x hi, nu
khng phi tt c, c mt yu t ca tnh duy l. Phi th nhn rng, con ngi hu nh
khng bao gi hnh ng hon ton duy l (tc l, nh h lm nu h c th s dng ti
95

Mt l l gn tng t c th thy trong C. Menger, Collected Works, vol. II (1883 v 1933), tr. 259-60.

96

u mi thng tin sn c t bt c mc ch no m h c th c), nhng tuy vy, h

hnh ng t nhiu hp l; v iu ny lm cho vic xy dng cc m hnh tng i n
gin v cc hnh ng v tng tc ln nhau ca h l c th, v dng cc m hnh
ny nh cc php gn ng.
im cui ny dng nh vi ti, tht s, biu l mt s khc bit ng k gia cc
khoa hc t nhin v x hi c l l s khc bit quan trng nht v cc phng php
ca chng, v cc khc bit quan trng khc, tc l cc kh khn c th v tin hnh cc
th nghim (xem cui mc 24) v v p dng cc phng php nh lng (xem di
y), l cc khc bit v cp hn l v loi. Ti ni n kh nng chp nhn, trong
khoa hc x hi, ci c th c gi l phng php ca cu trc logic hay duy l, hay c
l phng php zero.96 Ti hiu y l phng php xy dng mt m hnh trn gi
thit v tnh duy l hon ton (v c l c trn gi thit v nm c y thng tin) t
pha tt c nhng c nhn lin quan, v v c lng s chnh lch gia ng x tht s
ca ngi dn v ng x ca m hnh, v dng ci sau nh mt loi to zero.97 Mt
th d ca phng php ny l s so snh gia ng x thc t (di nh hng ca, th
d, nh kin truyn thng, v.v.) v ng x m hnh c k vng trn c s ca la
chn thun tu logic, nh c cc phng trnh ca kinh t hc m t. Th d, o
tng Tin l th ca Marschak c th din gii theo cch ny.98 N lc p dng phng
php zero cho mt lnh vc khc c th thy trong so snh ca P. Sargant Florence gia
logic ca hot ng qui m ln trong cng nghip v phi logic ca hot ng thc
t.99
Nhn tin ti mun nhc n rng c nguyn l ca ch ngha c nhn phng php
lun, ln nguyn l ca phng php zero v xy dng cc m hnh duy l, u khng
hm vic chp nhn phng php tm l hc trong kin ca ti. Ngc li, ti tin rng
cc nguyn l ny c th kt hp vi quan im100 rng cc khoa hc x hi l tng i
c lp vi cc gi thit tm l hc, v rng tm l hc c th c coi, khng nh c s
ca mi khoa hc x hi, m nh mt khoa hc x hi ga nhng khoa hc x hi khc.
Trong kt thc mc ny, ti phi nhc n ci ti coi l s khc bit ch yu khc gia
cc phng php ca mt s khoa hc t nhin v x hi. Ti mun ni n cc kh khn
c th lin quan n p dng cc phng php nh lng, v c bit cc phng php
o lng.101 Mt s trong nhng kh khn ny c th, v c, khc phc bng vic
p dng cc phng php thng k, th d trong phn tch cu. V chng phi c khc
phc nu, th d, mt s phng trnh ca kinh t hc ton hc cung cp c s ngay c
cho cc ng dng ch mang tnh nh tnh n thun; v khng c o lng nh vy
chng ta thng khng bit liu mt s tc ng chng li c vt qu tc ng c
96

Xem gi thit khng-null hypothesis c tho lun trong J. Marschak, Money illusion and Demand
Analysis trong The Review of Economic Statisyics, vol. XXV, tr. 40. Phng php c m t y
dng nh trng mt phn vi ci c Gio s Hayek, ngi i theo Menger, gi l phng php kt
hp [compositive].
97
Ngay c y c th ni, c l, rng vic dng cc m hnh duy l hay logic trong cc khoa hc x hi,
hay m hnh zero, c s tng t mang mng trong cc khoa hc t nhin, c bit trong nhit ng hc
v trong sinh hc (xy dng cc m hnh c hc v cc m hnh sinh l hc ca cc qu trnh v cc c
quan). (So c vi vic s dng cc phng php bin phn).
98
Xem J. Marschak, op. cit.
99
Xem P. Sargant Florence, The Logic of Industrial Organizations (1933)
100
Quan im ny c pht trin y hn ch. 14 ca Open Society ca ti.
101
Nhng kh khn ny c Gio s Hayek tho lun, op. cit. tr. 290f.

97

tnh bng nh tnh n thun hay khng. Nh th nhng cn nhc nh tnh n thun
i khi c th rt d gy lm ln; d lm ln ht nh, dng li ca Gio s Frisch, c th
ni rng khi mt ngi c cho thuyn ra pha trc, th con thuyn li b y ra pha sau
v p lc do chn anh ta gy ra.102 Nhng khng th nghi ng l c mt s kh khn cn
bn y. Trong vt l hc, th d, cc tham s ca chng ta, v nguyn tc, c th qui
gn v mt s t cc hng s t nhin- mt s rt gn c tin hnh thnh cng trong
nhiu trng hp quan trng. Khng phi vy trong kinh t hc; y bn thn cc tham
s trong cc trng hp quan trng nht l cc bin s thay i nhanh.103 iu ny c
nhin lm gim tm quan trng, tnh c th din gii, v tnh c th kim nghim ca cc
php o ca chng ta.

30 CC KHOA HC L
THUYT V LCH S
Lun v s thng nht ca phng php khoa hc, m s p dng ca n cho cc khoa
hc l thuyt va c ti bo v, c th c m rng, vi nhng hn ch nht nh,
thm ch cho lnh vc ca cc khoa hc lch s. V c th lm iu ny m khng t b
s phn bit c bn gia cc khoa hc l thuyt v lch s- th d, gia mt bn l x hi
hc hay l thuyt kinh t hay l thuyt chnh tr, v bn kia l s hc x hi, kinh t v
chnh tr- mt s phn bit c cc s gia gii nht ti xc nhn mt cch rt thng
xuyn v dt khot. l s phn bit gia mi quan tm n cc qui lut ph qut v
mi quan tm n cc s thc c bit. Ti mun bo v quan im, rt thng b cc nh
lch s ch ngha cng kch l quan im c h, rng s hc c c trng bi mi
quan tm ca n ti cc s kin thc t, n nht, hay c th, hn l ti cc qui lut
hay nhng khi qut ho.
Quan im ny hon ton tng thch vi phn tch phng php khoa hc, v c bit
vi gii thch nhn qu, c trnh by cc mc trc. Tnh hnh n gin l th ny:
trong khi cc khoa hc l thuyt ch yu quan tm n tm ra v kim nghim cc qui lut
ph qut, cc khoa hc lch s coi mi loi qui lut ph qut l nghim nhin v ch yu
quan tm n tm ra v kim nghim cc tuyn b c nht. Th d, cho trc mt
explicandum-ci cn gii thch c nht -mt s kin c bit - h c th tm cc iu
kin ban u c bit m chng (cng vi mi loi qui lut ph qut c th c cho l t
l th) s gii thch iu cn gii thch . Hoc h c th kim nghim mt gi thuyt
n nht cho trc, cng bi cc tuyn b n nht khc, nh cc iu kin ban u, v
bng cch suy din t cc iu kin ban u ny (li vi s gip ca mi loi qui lut
ph qut t l th) ra cc d on mi no , ci c th m t mt s kin xy ra
trong qu kh xa xi, v c th i cht d on vi bng chng kinh nghim c l
vi t liu hay nhng nghi chp, v.v.

102
103

Xem Econometrica, 1 (1933), tr. 1 f.

Xem Lionel Robbins, trong Economica, vol. V, c bit tr. 351.

98

Theo ngha ca phn tch ny, tt c gii thch nhn qu ca mt s kin c nht c
th c ni l lch s trong chng mc nguyn nhn lun lun c m t bi cc
iu kin ban u c nht. V iu ny thng nht hon ton vi tng ph bin rng
gii thch mt s vic mt cch nhn qu l i gii thch v sao n xy ra v n xy ra
th no, tc l, k lch s ca n. Nhng ch trong s hc chng ta mi thc s quan
tm n gii thch nhn qu ca mt s kin c nht. Trong cc khoa hc l thuyt,
nhng gii thch nhn qu nh vy ch yu phc v cc mc ch khc - kim nghim
cc qui lut ph qut.
Nu nhng cn nhc ny ca ti l ng n, th mi quan tm nng bng n cc vn
xut x, m mt s nh tin ho v lch s ch ngha by t, nhng ngi coi khinh s
hc c h v mun ci bin n thnh mt khoa hc l thuyt, c t ra hi khng ng
ch. Cc cu hi v xut x l cc cu hi v th no v v sao. Chng l tng i
khng quan trng v mt l thuyt v thng ch c mt s quan tm lch s c th.
Chng li phn tch ca ti v gii thch lch s104, c th l l rng s hc c s dng
cc qui lut ph qut ngc vi tuyn b mnh m ca rt nhiu nh s hc rng s hc
khng c bt k s quan tm no n cc qui lut nh vy. i vi iu ny anh ta c th
tr li rng mt s kin n nht l nguyn nhn ca mt s kin n nht khc- kt qu
ca n- ch mang tnh tng i so vi cc qui lut ph qut no .105 Nhng cc qui
lut ny l tm thng n mc, l mt phn ca hiu bit chung ca chng ta n mc,
chng ta khng cn nhc n chng v him khi n chng. Nu chng ta ni rng,
nguyn nhn ci cht ca Giordano Bruno l do b thiu chy trn cc, chng ta chng
cn nhc n qui lut ph qut rng mi sinh vt u cht nu b phi ra nng gt. Nhng
mt qui lut nh vy c gi thit mt cch ngm nh trong gii thch nhn qu ca
chng ta.
Trong s cc l thuyt m s gia chnh tr gi nh trc, tt nhin, c cc l thuyt no
ca x hi hc- th d, x hi hc v quyn lc. Nhng s gia s dng ngay c cc l
thuyt ny, nh mt qui tc, m khng c thc v chng. ng ta dng chng ch yu
khng nh cc qui lut ph qut gip ng ta kim nghim cc gi thuyt c th ca
mnh, m nh ngm nh trong thut ng ca ng ta. Ni v cc chnh ph, quc gia,
qun i, ng ta dng, thng mt cch v thc, cc m hnh do phn tch x hi hc
khoa hc hay tin khoa hc cung cp (xem mc trc).
Cc khoa hc lch s, c th nhn xt, khng ng hon ton mt mnh v thi ca
chng vi cc qui lut ph qut. Bt k khi no chng ta bt gp mt ng dng tht s
ca khoa hc cho mt vn n nht hay c th chng ta gp phi tnh th tng t.
Nh ho hc thc tin, th d, ngi mun phn tch mt hp cht cho trc no th
d, mt mu - hu nh khng xem xt bt k qui lut ph qut no. Thay vo , anh
ta p dng, c l chng suy ngh nhiu, cc k thut thng thng no m, nhn t
quan im logic, l cc kim nghim ca cc gi thuyt n nht nh hp cht ny cha
104

Phn tch ca ti c th c i snh vi phn tch ca Morton G. White, Historical Explanation

(Mind, N. S., vol. 52, tr. 212 ff.), ngi t c s cho phn tch ca mnh ln l thuyt gii thch nhn qu
ca ti, nh c C. G. Hempel ch ra. Tuy nhin ng i n kt qu rt khc. B qua mi quan tm c
trng ca nh lch s ch ngha n cc s kin c nht, ng gi rng mt gii thch l c tnh lch s
nu n c c trng bng vic s dng cc khi nim (v cc l thuyt) x hi hc.
105
Max Weber pht hin ra iu ny. Cc nhn xt ca ng trang 179 ca cun Gesammelte Aufstze
zur Wissenschaftslehre (1922) l s thy trc st nht m ti bit i vi phn tch c a ra y.
Nhng ng phm sai lm, ti tin, khi ng gi rng s khc bit gia khoa hc l thuyt v khoa hc
lch s l mc khi qut ca cc qui lut c dng.

99

lu hunh. Mi quan tm ca anh ta ch yu l quan tm mang tnh lch s - s m t

ca mt tp ca cc s kin c th, hay ca mt vt th vt l n l.
Ti tin rng phn tch ny lm r mt s tranh ci ni ting gia cc nh nghin cu
no v phng php ca s hc.106 Mt nhm lch s ch ngha khng nh rng s
hc, khng ch lit k cc s thc m c gng trnh by chng trong loi no ca lin
h nhn qu, phi quan tm n vic trnh by cc qui lut lch s, v tnh nhn qu c
ngha, c bn, l s xc nh bi qui lut. Nhm khc, cng bao gm cc nh lch s ch
ngha, li l l rng ngay c cc s kin duy nht, cc s kin xy ra mt ln v chng c
g chung v chng c, c th l nguyn nhn ca cc s kin khc, v rng chnh loi
to ra kt qu ny l ci s hc quan tm n. By gi chng ta c th thy rng c hai
nhm ng mt phn v sai mt phn. Qui lut ph qut v cc s kin c th cng l cn
thit cho bt k gii thch nhn qu no, nhng ngoi cc khoa hc l thuyt, cc qui lut
ph qut thng gi t quan tm.
iu ny dn chng ta n cu hi v tnh duy nht ca cc s kin lch s. Trong
chng mc chng ta quan tm n gii thch lch s ca cc s kin in hnh, chng
nht thit phi c coi nh in hnh, nh thuc v cc loi hay cc lp ca cc s kin.
V ch khi phng php suy din ca gii thch nhn qu mi c th p dng c. S
hc, tuy vy, quan tm khng ch n gii thch cc s kin c th m c n m t ca
mt s kin c th nh n l. Mt trong nhng nhim v quan trng nht ca n khng
nghi ng g l i m t nhng bin c l th trong s c o hay duy nht ca chng; tc
l, bao hm cc kha cnh m n khng c gii thch mt cch nhn qu, nh s xy ra
ng thi tnh c ca cc s kin khng c lin h nhn qu. Hai nhim v ny ca s
hc, vic g cc mi nhn qu v m t cch tnh c m cc mi ny an xen nhau, u
cn thit, v chng b sung cho nhau; mt lc mt s kin c th c xem l in hnh,
tc l t quan im gii thch nhn qu ca n, v khi khc nh duy nht.
Nhng cn nhc ny c th c p dng cho vn v tnh mi, c tho lun
mc 3. S phn bit a ra gia tnh mi v sp xp v tnh mi bn cht tng
ng vi s phn bit hin thi gia lp trng v gii thch nhn qu v lp trng nh
gi cao tnh duy nht. Trong chng mc tnh mi c th c phn tch v tin on mt
cch duy l, n chng bao gi c th l bn cht. iu ny xua tan thuyt lch s ch
ngha rng khoa hc x hi phi p dng c cho vn tin on s ni ln ca cc s
kin mi v bn cht- mt i hi c th ni l da cui cng vo mt phn tch khng
ca tin on v ca gii thch nhn qu.

106

Xem, th d, Weber, op. cit., tr. 8 f., 44 f., 215 ff., 233 ff.

100

31 LOGIC TNH HUNG

TRONG S HC.
DIN GII LCH S
Nhng y l tt c ? Chng cn bt k g trong i hi lch s ch ngha v mt ci
cch s hc- v mt x hi hc ng vai tr ca s hc l thuyt, hay mt l thuyt pht
trin lch s ? (Xem cc mc 12 v 16). Chng cn bt k g trong tng lch s ch
ngha v cc giai on; v tinh thn hay phong cch ca mt thi i; v cc xu
hng lch s khng th cng ni; v nhng vn ng lm say m tm hn ca cc c
nhn v tro dng nh nc l cun cc c nhn i, thay v b cc c nhn x y? Chng
ai, ngi c, th d, nhng suy xt ca Tolstoy trong Chin tranh v Ho bnh chng nghi ng g, ng l nh lch s ch ngha, nhng ng ni r cc ng c ca mnh
mt cch chn tht - v s di chuyn ca ngi Phng Ty sang Phng ng v s di
chuyn ngc li ca nhng ngi Nga sang Phng Ty,107 li c th ph nhn rng ch
ngha lch s tho mn mt nhu cu thc s. Chng ta phi tho mn nhu cu ny bng
cung cp ci g tt hn, trc khi chng ta c th hi vng mt cch nghim tc gii
thot khi ch ngha lch s.
Ch ngha lch s ca Tolstoy l mt phn ng chng li mt phng php vit s,
phng php ngm chp nhn s ng n ca nguyn l v s lnh o; mt phng
php qui nhiu qu nhiu, nu Tolstoy ng, nh chng nghi ng g l ng ng cho
ngi v i, cho th lnh. Tolstoy c ch ra, ti ngh mt cch thnh cng, nh hng
nh ca cc hnh ng v quyt nh ca Napoleon, Alexander, Kutuzov, v ca cc lnh
t ln khc ca 1812, nu chng ta so snh vi ci c th c gi l logic ca cc s
kin. Tolstoy ch ra, mt cch ng n, tm quan trng b b qua nhng v cng to ln
ca cc quyt nh v hnh ng ca v s c nhn v danh nhng ngi chin u,
t chy Moscow, v nhng ngi pht minh ra phng php chin tranh du kch.
Song ng tin l ng c th thy loi no ca tnh xc nh trong cc s kin ny - s
phn, cc qui lut lch s, hay mt k hoch. Trong phin bn ca ng v ch ngha lch
s, ng kt hp c ch ngha c nhn phng php lun ln ch ngha tp th; tc l, ng
trnh by mt s kt hp rt in hnh, in hnh ca thi ng, v, ti e, ca c thi i
chng ta, ca cc yu t c nhn ch ngha-dn ch v tp th ch ngha-dn tc ch
ngha.
Th d ny c th nhc nh chng ta rng c mt s yu t lnh mnh trong ch ngha
lch s; n l phn ng chng li phng php u tr v din gii lch s chnh tr ch nh
chuyn v cc nh chuyn ch ln v cc v tng v i. Cc nh lch s ch ngha cm
thy mt cch ng n rng c ci g tt hn phng php ny. Chnh cm nhn ny
l ci lm cho tng v tinh thn - ca mt thi i, ca mt dn tc, ca mt qun
i - li quyn r n vy.
M ti th chng h c thin cm cht no vi nhng tinh thn ny- c hnh mu l
tng ln hin thn duy vt v bin chng ca chng v ti hon ton ng cm vi
107

iu ny thy trc cc vn mi y c Gio s Toynbee bn chi tit nhng khng tr li c.

101

nhng ngi khinh r chng. Th m ti cm thy rng chng cho bit, ch t, s tn ti

ca mt k h, mt ch m nhim v ca x hi hc l lp n vi mt ci g hp l
hn, nh mt phn tch ca cc vn ny sinh trong khun kh mt truyn thng. Cn
kh nng cho mt phn tch chi tit hn ca logic ca cc tnh hung. Cc s gia gii
nht thng s dng khi nim ny mt cch t nhiu v thc: th d, Tolstoy khi ng m
t v sao khng phi s quyt nh m l s bt buc l ci khin qun i Nga b
Moscow m khng chin u v rt lui v cc v tr ni h c th kim c ci n. Vt
qu logic tnh hung ny, hay c l l mt phn ca n, chng ta cn ci g ging mt
phn tch cc phong tro x hi. Da vo ch ngha c nhn phng php lun, chng ta
cn nghin cu cc nh ch m qua cc tng c th lan rng v quyn r cc c
nhn, cch m cc truyn thng mi c th c to ra, v cch m cc truyn thng hot
ng v tan v. Ni cch khc, cc m hnh c nhn ch ngha v ch nh lun
(institutionalist) ca chng ta v cc thc th tp th nh cc dn tc, hay chnh ph, hay
th trng phi c b sung bng cc m hnh v cc tnh hung chnh tr cng nh v
cc phong tro x hi nh tin b khoa hc v cng nghip. (Phc ho ca mt phn tch
v tin b c th thy mc tip theo). Cc m hnh ny sau c th c cc nh lch
s dng, mt phn nh cc m hnh khc, v mt phn cho mc ch gii thch, cng vi
cc qui lut ph qut m h s dng. Nhng ngay c iu ny cng khng ; n vn
khng tho mn mi nhu cu thc t m ch ngha lch s c tho mn.
Nu chng ta xem xt cc khoa hc lch s di nh sng ca so snh gia chng v
cc khoa hc l thuyt, th chng ta c th thy rng s thiu quan tm ca chng ti cc
qui lut ph qut t chng vo a v kh khn. V trong khoa hc l thuyt cc qui lut,
cng vi cc th khc, ng vai nh nhng trung tm ca s ch m cc quan st lin
quan n, hay nh cc quan im m t cc quan st c tin hnh. Trong s hc cc
qui lut ph qut, m phn ln mang tnh tm thng v c dng mt cch v thc, c
l khng th thc hin chc nng ny. Ci g khc phi th ch n. V khng nghi ng
g, khng th c s hc m khng c mt quan im; ging nh cc khoa hc t nhin,
s hc phi mang tnh chn lc tr phi n mun b cht ngt trong mt dng l ca s
liu ngho nn v ri rc. N lc theo ui cc chui nhn qu vo qu kh xa xi chng
gip c g, v mi tc ng c th m chng ta c th bt u vi, li c rt nhiu
nguyn nhn tng phn; tc l, cc iu kin ban u l rt phc tp, v hu ht li chng
my ng quan tm.
Cch duy nht thot khi kh khn ny, ti tin, l a quan im chn lc c
hnh dung trc vo s hc mt cch c thc; tc l, vit loi lch s m chng ta quan
tm. iu ny khng c ngha l chng ta c th vn hay nho nn cc s thc cho n
khi chng hp vi mt khung kh ca cc tng c hnh dung trc, hoc rng
chng ta c th b qua cc s thc khng ph hp.108 Ngc li, mi bng chng sn c,
c nh hng n quan im ca chng ta, phi c xem xt thn trng v khch quan
(theo ngha ca tnh khch quan khoa hc, c tho lun mc tip). Song n c
ngha l chng ta khng phi lo lng v tt c cc s thc hay cc kha cnh, nhng ci
khng c nh hng n quan im ca chng ta, v v th khng ng quan tm i vi
chng ta.
Cc cch tip cn chn lc nh vy hon thnh cc chc nng trong nghin cu lch s
m theo cch no tng t nh cc chc nng ca cc l thuyt trong khoa hc. Nh
108

V mt ph phn hc thuyt rng mi hiu bit lch s l tng i, xem Hayek, trong Economica,
vol. X, tr. 55 ff.

102

th c th hiu c rng chng thng c coi l cc l thuyt. V tht vy, cc

tng him hoi vn gn vi nhng cch tip cn ny m c th c trnh by dng cc
gi thuyt c th kim nghim c, bt lun n nht hay ph qut, c th c coi nh
cc gi thuyt khoa hc. Nhng nh mt qui tc, nhng cch tip cn hay cc quan
im lch s ny khng th c kim nghim. Chng khng th b bc b, v nhng xc
nhn hin nhin v th chng c gi tr g, du cho chng c nhiu nh sao trn tri.
Chng ta s gi quan im chn lc hay tiu im ca mi quan tm lch s nh vy, nu
n khng th c trnh by nh mt gi thuyt c th kim nghim, l mt din gii lch
s.
Ch ngha lch s lm ln cc din gii ny l cc l thuyt. y l mt trong nhng sai
lm ch yu ca n. Th d, c kh nng din gii lch s nh lch s ca u tranh
giai cp, hay ca u tranh ca cc chng tc v uy quyn ti cao, hay nh lch s ca cc
t tng tn gio, hay nh lch s ca cuc u tranh gia x hi m v x hi ng,
hay nh lch s ca tin b khoa hc v cng nghip. Tt c nhng th ny l cc quan
im t nhiu l th, v vi t cch nh th l hon ton khng th ch trch c. Nhng
cc nh lch s ch ngha khng trnh by chng nh th; h khng thy rng nht thit
c mt tnh a nguyn ca cc din gii m v cn bn cng mc ca c tnh gi m
ln tnh tu tin (d cho mt vi trong s chng c th ni bt ln nh tnh phong ph ca
chng - mt im c tm quan trng no ). Thay vo , h gii thiu chng nh cc
hc thuyt hay cc l thuyt, khng nh rng mi lch s u l lch s ca u tranh
giai cp, v. v. V nu h thc s thy quan im ca mnh l phong ph, v rng nhiu
s thc c th c sp xp v din gii theo nh sng ca n, th h nhm ln iu ny
l mt s xc minh, hay thm ch mt chng minh cho hc thuyt ca h.
Mt khc, cc s gia c in nhng ngi phn i mt cch ng n th tc ny li
c th d dng phm sai lm khc. Nhm ti tnh khch quan, h cm thy nht nh phi
trnh bt k quan im chn lc no; nhng v iu ny l khng th, h thng chp
nhn cc quan im m khng c thc v chng. iu ny hn lm tiu tan cc n lc
ca h l khch quan, v ngi ta c l khng th c tnh ph phn vi quan im
ring ca mnh, v thc c v cc hn ch ca n, m khng bit v n.
Li ra khi th b ny, tt nhin, l phi r rng v s cn thit chp nhn mt quan
im; tuyn b quan im mt cch r rng, v lun lun thc rng n l mt trong
nhiu quan im, v rng cho d c t mc mt l thuyt, n c th khng kim nghim
c.

103

32 L THUYT CH NH
CA S TIN B
lm cho xem xt ca chng ta t tru tng, ti s th trong mc ny phc ho,
nhng nt rt ngn gn, mt l thuyt ca tin b khoa hc v cng nghip. Ti s c
minh ho bng th d, theo cch ny, cc tng c pht trin bn mc trc; c
bit l cc tng ri khi tm l hc v logic tnh hung, v v ch ngha c nhn
phng php lun. Ti chn th d v tin b khoa hc v cng nghip bi v khng nghi
ng g y l hin tng truyn cm hng cho ch ngha lch s hin i th k mi
chn, v bi v trc y ti tho lun vi quan im ca Mill v ti ny.
Hy nh li, Comte v Mill cho rng tin b l mt xu hng v iu kin v tuyt
i, xu hng c th qui v cc qui lut ca bn cht con ngi. Qui lut ca s k tip
nhau, Comte vit, khng nn c chp nhn mt cch dt khot trc khi n c qui
mt cch hp l v l thuyt tch cc ca bn cht con ngi, ngay c khi phng php
quan st lch s vi mi uy quyn c th hnh dung c ch ra nh vy109 ng tin
rng qui lut v tin b c th c suy din t mt khuynh hng trong cc c nhn thc
p h ngy cng hon thin bn cht con ngi. V mi th Mill theo ng hon ton, c
gng qui qui lut tin b ca ng v ci m ng gi l tnh tin b ca tm tr con
ngi110 m lc thc p u tin l mong mun tin nghi vt cht tng ln. Theo c
Comte v Mill tnh cht v iu kin hay tuyt i ca xu hng hay ta-qui lut ny cho
php chng ta suy din t n ra cc bc hay cc pha u tin ca lch s, m khng i
hi bt k iu kin hay quan st hay s liu lch s ban u no.111 V nguyn tc, ton
b din tin ca lch s phi c th c suy ra nh vy; kh khn duy nht, nh Mill
din t, l mt chui di nh vy, mi on k tip nhau gm cc phn cn c s
lng cng ln hn v a dng hn, c l khng th c tnh bi kh nng ca con
ngi.112
Nhc im ca s qui gn ny ca Mill dng nh l hin nhin. Cho d chng ta
tha nhn cc tin v suy din ca Mill, vn khng suy ra l tc ng x hi hay lch
s s l ng k. Hn na, cc tin da ch trn mt mt ca bn cht con ngi m
khng xt n cc mt khc nh tnh hay qun hoc li bing. Nh vy u chng ta
quan st iu tri ngc hon ton vi s tin b c Mill m t, chng ta cng c
th qui nhng quan st ny cho bn cht con ngi. (Thc vy, chng phi mt trong
nhng cng c ph bin nht ca ci gi l cc l thuyt lch s gii thch s suy tn v
sp ca cc ch bng cc c im nh tnh li nhc v thin hng n qu mc
sao?) Thc ra chng ta c th hnh dung rt t s kin m chng khng th c gii
thch mt cch hp l bng vin dn n cc thin hng no ca bn cht con
ngi. Nhng mt phng php c th gii thch mi th ng ra li chng gii thch
c ci g c.

109

Comte, Cours de philosophie positve, IV, tr. 335.

Mill, Logic, Book VI, ch. X, mc 3; trch dn tip l t mc 6 ni l thuyt c pht trin chi tit hn.
111
Comte, op. cit., IV, tr. 345.
112
Mill, loc. Cit., mc 4.
110

104

Nu chng ta mun thay l thuyt u tr n sng st ny bng mt l thuyt ng vng

c hn, chng ta phi tin hnh hai bc. Th nht, chng ta phi c tm ra cc iu
kin ca s tin b, v cho mc ch ny chng ta phi p dng nguyn l c nu ra
mc 28: chng ta phi tng tng ra cc iu kin m di s tin b b ngng li.
iu ny dn ngay lp tc n nhn thc rng ring thin hng tm l hc khng th l
gii thch s tin b, v cc iu kin c th c tm thy m n c th ph thuc
vo. Nh vy chng ta phi, bc tip theo, thay th l thuyt v cc thin hng tm l
hc bng ci g tt hn; ti xut, bng mt phn tch ch nh (v k thut) ca cc
iu kin ca s tin b.
Lm th no c th ngn s tin b khoa hc v cng nghip li? Bng ng ca, hay
kim sot, cc phng th nghim nghin cu, bng cm hay kim sot cc tp ch khoa
hc v cc phng tin tho lun khc, bng ngn cn cc hi ngh v hi tho khoa hc,
bng ngn cn cc trng i hc v cc trng khc, bng cm sch, in n, vit, v, cui
cng, cm pht biu. Tt c cc th c th b cm, b ngn cn (hay b kim sot) u l
cc nh ch x hi. Ngn ng l mt nh ch x hi m thiu n th s tin b khoa hc
l khng th ngh ti, v khng c n th chng th c khoa hc cng khng c s pht
trin v truyn thng tin b. Vic vit l mt nh ch x hi, v cng th l cc t chc
in n v xut bn v tt c cc cng c nh ch khc ca phng php khoa hc. Bn
thn phng php khoa hc c cc kha cnh x hi ca n. Khoa hc, v c bit l s
tin b khoa hc, l kt qu khng phi ca cc n lc bit lp m ca s cnh tranh t
do ca t duy. V khoa hc cn ngy cng nhiu cnh tranh gia cc gi thuyt v ngy
cng nhiu kim nghim cht ch. V cc gi thuyt cnh tranh nhau cn n i din c
nhn, c th ni: chng cn nhng ngi bin h, chng cn mt hi thm on, v thm
ch cng chng. S i din c nhn ny phi c t chc mt cch ch nh nu chng
ta mun m bo rng n hot ng. V cc nh ch ny phi c tr tin v c lut
php bo v. Cui cng, s tin b ph thuc rt nhiu vo cc nhn t chnh tr; vo cc
nh ch chnh tr, bo v quyn t do t tng: vo dn ch.
C tm quan trng no rng ci thng c gi l tnh khch quan khoa hc,
mc no , da trn cc nh ch x hi. Quan im u tr rng tnh khch quan khoa
hc da vo thi tinh thn v tm l ca c nhn nh khoa hc, vo s o to, s thn
trng, v s v t khoa hc ca ng ta, gy ra quan im h nghi nh mt phn ng rng
nh khoa hc chng bao gi khch quan. T quan im ny, s thiu khch quan ca h
c th c b qua trong cc khoa hc t nhin ni nhng am m ca h khng b kch
ng, nhng i vi cc khoa hc x hi ni dnh dng n cc nh kin x hi, thin
kin giai cp, v cc li ch c nhn, n c th l tai ho. Hc thuyt ny, c pht trin
chi tit bi ci gi l x hi hc tri thc (xem cc mc 6 v 26), hon ton b qua tnh
cht x hi hay nh ch ca tri thc khoa hc, v n da vo quan im u tr rng tnh
khch quan ph thuc vo tm l ca c nhn nh khoa hc. N b qua s thc rng c
tnh kh khan ln s cch bit ca ch ca khoa hc t nhin chng ngn cn tnh
thin v v t li khi can thip vo cc nim tin c nhn ca nh khoa hc, v rng nu
gi nh chng ta phi ph thuc vo s v t ca ng ta, th khoa hc, ngay c khoa hc
t nhin, s hon ton khng th c c. Ci m x hi hc tri thc b qua chnh l x
hi hc ca tri thc- l tnh cht x hi hay cng cng ca khoa hc. N b qua s thc
rng chnh c tnh cng cng ca khoa hc v ca cc nh ch ca n, c tnh p t k

105

lut tinh thn ln c nhn nh khoa hc, v duy tr tnh khch quan ca khoa hc v
truyn thng ca n v tho lun mt cch ph phn cc tng mi.113
Trong mi quan h ny, c l ti c th cp n cc thuyt khc c trnh by
mc 6 (Tnh Khch quan v S nh gi). L l l, v nghin cu khoa hc v
cc vn x hi bn thn n phi nh hng n i sng x hi, cho nn i vi nh
khoa hc x hi ngi thc c v nh hng ny l khng d gi thi khoa hc
ng n v tnh khch quan v t. Nhng chng c g khc thng i vi khoa hc x
hi trong tnh th ny. Nh vt l hay mt k s cng trong cng tnh th. Khng cn l
mt nh khoa hc x hi anh ta cng c th nhn ra rng pht minh v mt my bay hay
tn la mi c th c nh hng to ln n x hi.
Ti va phc ho vi iu kin ch nh m tin b khoa hc v cng nghip ph thuc
vo. Quan trng l phi nhn ra rng hu ht cc iu kin ny khng th c gi l
iu kin cn, v tt c chng cng nhau khng l iu kin .
Cc iu kin khng phi l cn, v khng c cc nh ch ny (ngn ng c l l ngoi
l) tin b khoa hc khng phi l hon ton khng th. Rt cuc, tin b c to
ra t li ni n t vit, v thm na (du cho s pht trin sm ny, ni ng n, c l
cha phi l tin b khoa hc).
Mt khc, v iu ny quan trng hn, chng ta phi nhn ra rng vi t chc nh ch
tt nht trn i, tin b khoa hc mt ngy no c th dng li. Th d, c th xut
hin mt dch bnh ch ngha thn b. Chng ta khng loi tr c kh nng ny, v mt
s tr thc c phn ng vi tin b khoa hc (hay vi nhng i hi ca mt x hi m)
bng cch rt lui vo ch ngha thn b, mi ngi c th phn ng theo cch ny. C th
i ph vi mt kh nng nh vy c l bng ngh ra thm mt tp na ca cc nh ch
x hi, nh cc nh ch gio dc, lm nn lng tnh cng kiu v c v tnh a dng.
T tng ca s tin b v s truyn b nhit tnh ca n cng c th c tc ng no .
Nhng tt c iu ny khng lm cho tin b l chc chn. V chng ta khng th loi tr
kh nng logic, th d, ca mt vi khun hay virus truyn ham mun v ci Nit Bn.
Nh vy chng ta thy rng ngay c cc nh ch tt nht cng chng bao gi c th
hon ton m bo. Nh ti ni trc y, cc nh ch ging cc Pho i. Chng
phi c thit k kho v phi phn cng kho ngi canh gc. Nhng chng ta chng
bao gi c th m bo rng ngi ng s c nghin cu khoa hc hp dn. Chng ta
cng chng m bo c rng s c nhng ngi c u c tng tng, c khiu ngh
ra cc gi thuyt mi. V cui cng, v nhng chuyn ny phn nhiu ph thuc hon
ton vo vn may. Bi v s tht khng biu l ra, v l mt sai lm i tin nh Comte v
Mill tin - rng mt khi cc chng ngi (m ch n Nh Th) b d b, th s tht s
hin ra r rng cho mi ngi nhng ngi thnh tht mun thy n.
Ti tin rng kt qu ca phn tch ny c th c khi qut ho. Nhn t con ngi
hay c nhn s vn l yu t phi l trong hu ht, hay tt c, cc l thuyt x hi ch nh.
Ti tin, hc thuyt tri ngc rao ging vic qui cc l thuyt x hi v tm l hc, theo
cng cch nh chng ta c qui ho hc v vt l hc, da vo mt s hiu lm. N ny
sinh t lng tin sai rng ch ngha tm l phng php lun ny l mt h qu cn thit
ca ch ngha c nhn phng php lun - ca mt hc thuyt hon ton khng th b bc
113

Mt ph phn y hn ca ci gi l X hi hc Tri thc c th tm thy ch. 23 ca cun Open

Society and Its Enemies ca ti. Vn v tnh khch quan khoa hc, v s ph thuc ca n vo ph phn
duy l v tnh c th kim nghim lin-ch quan, cng c tho lun trong ch. 24, v, t mt quan
im hi khc, trong cun Logic of Scientific Discovery ca ti.

106

b rng chng ta phi c gng hiu mi hin tng tp th nh do cc hnh ng, cc

tng tc, cc mc tiu, nhng hi vng, v suy ngh ca nhng ngi ring l, v nh do
cc truyn thng c nhng c nhn to ra v duy tr. Song chng ta c th l c nhn
ch ngha m khng cn chp nhn ch ngha tm l. Phng php zero v xy dng
cc m hnh duy l khng phi l mt phng php tm l hc m ng hn l mt
phng php logic.
Tht ra, tm l hc khng th l c s ca khoa hc x hi. Th nht, v bn thn n ch
l mt trong cc khoa hc x hi: bn cht con ngi thay i ng k vi cc nh ch
x hi, v s nghin cu n v th gi nh trc mt s hiu bit cc nh ch ny. Th
hai, v cc khoa hc x hi ch yu quan tm n cc h qu khng lng trc, hay
nhng hu qu, ca cc hot ng ca con ngi. V khng lng trc trong khung
cnh ny c l khng c ngha l khng c nh mt cch c thc- khng ch ;
ng hn n c trng cho cc hu qu, nhng ci c th xm phm mi li ch ca tc
nhn x hi, bt lun c thc hay khng: du cho mt vi ngi c th cho rng thch
ni non v tnh mch c th c gii thch v mt tm l hc, s thc rng, nu c qu
nhiu ngi thch ni, th h khng th th hng s tnh mch , n khng phi l
mt s thc tm l hc; m loi vn ny nm chnh gc r ca l thuyt x hi.
Th l chng ta t mt kt qu gy sng st tri ngc vi phng php vn cn thi
thng ca Comte v Mill. Thay cho qui nhng cn nhc x hi hc v c s b ngoi
vng chc ca tm l hc v bn cht con ngi, chng ta c th ni rng nhn t con
ngi l nhn t bt trc v ng ngnh cui cng trong i sng x hi v trong mi
nh ch x hi. Tht vy y l yu t rt cuc khng th c kim sot hon ton bi
cc nh ch (nh Spinoza thy u tin114); v mi n lc kim sot hon ton n hn
phi dn n s chuyn ch; iu c ngha l, n quyn nng tuyt i ca nhn t con
ngi tnh kh tht thng ca vi ngi, hay thm ch ca mt ngi.
Nhng liu c th kim sot nhn t con ngi bng khoa hc- ngc tnh kh tht
thng khng? Khng nghi ng g, sinh hc v tm l hc c th gii quyt, hay s sm
c kh nng gii quyt, vn ci bin con ngi. Th nhng nhng ngi th lm
iu ny nht thit phi ph hu tnh khch quan ca khoa hc, v nh th c bn thn
khoa hc, v c hai u da vo s cnh tranh t do ca t duy; tc l, vo quyn t do.
Nu s pht trin ca l tr mun tip tc, v tnh hp l con ngi mun duy tr, th chng
bao gi c gy tr ngi cho tnh a dng ca cc c nhn v kin, mc tiu, v ch
nh ca h (tr cc trng hp cc oan khi quyn t do chnh tr b nguy him). Ngay
c s vin dn n mc ch chung du cho c tuyt vi v hp dn v mt xc cm n
u, ch l mt s ku gi xo b mi kin o c i ch v xo b nhng ph phn
cho v cc l l ny sinh. N l li ku gi xo b t duy duy l.
Ngi theo thuyt tin ho, i hi kim sot khoa hc bn cht con ngi, khng
nhn ra rng i hi ny mang tnh t st n th no. ng lc chnh ca tin ho v
tin b l s a dng ca vt cht ci c th tr thnh i tng cho la chn. Trong
chng mc lin quan n s tin ho ca con ngi, th chnh l quyn t do l k
quc v khc, khng ging hng xm l khng ng vi a s, v i theo con ng
ring ca mnh.115 Kim sot chnh th lun, vic hn dn n s lm ngang bng nhau

114

Xem ch thch 44 trn.

Xem Waddington (The Scientific Attitude, 1941, tr. 111 v 112), ngi m c ch ngha tin ho ca ng
ln o c khoa hc ca ng khng ngn khi ph nhn rng quyn t do ny c bt k gi tr khoa
115

107

khng ch ca cc quyn con ngi m c ca tm tr con ngi, s c ngha l s kt

thc ca tin b.

33 KT LUN. S QUYN
R XC CM CA
CH NGHA LCH S
Ch ngha lch s l mt phong tro rt c xa. Cc dng c nht ca n, nh cc hc
thuyt v vng i ca cc th v cc chng loi, thc s c trc quan im mc ch
lun th s rng ng sau nhng phn quyt m qung ca s phn c cc mc ch c
che y.116 Mc d s thn thnh ho ny ca cc mc ch c che du l rt xa vi
cch suy ngh khoa hc, n li cc du n khng th nhm ln ln ngay c cc l
thuyt lch s ch ngha hin i nht. Mi phin bn ca ch ngha lch s u by t
cm nhn b cc lc khng th cng ni cun vo tng lai.
Cc nh lch s ch ngha hin i, tuy vy, dng nh khng bit v tnh c xa ca
hc thuyt ca mnh. H tin - v s sng bi ch ngha hin i ca h c th cho php
ci g khc?- rng loi ch ngha lch s ring ca h l thnh tu mi nht v to bo
nht ca tr tu con ngi, mt thnh tu mi ng kinh ngc n ni ch vi ngi tin
b cao mi lnh hi c. H tin, thc vy, rng chnh h nhng ngi khm ph ra
vn ca s thay i - mt trong nhng vn c nht ca siu hnh hc suy on. i
snh cch suy ngh ng ca h vi cch suy ngh tnh ca tt c cc th h trc, h
tin rng s tin b ring ca h tr nn c th l nh vo s thc rng by gi chng ta
sng trong mt cuc cch mng, cuc cch mng lm tng tc pht trin ca
chng ta n mc l s thay i x hi by gi c th c tri nghim trc tip trong
vng ca mt i ngi duy nht. Cu chuyn ny, tt nhin, ch l thn thoi. Cc cuc
cch mng quan trng xy ra trc thi i chng ta, v k t thi Heraclitus s thay
i c khm ph ra ht ln ny n ln khc.117
trnh by mt tng thing ling n vy nh l to bo v cch mng, ti ngh,
l tit l mt ch ngha bo th v thc; v chng ta, nhng ngi lng ngm s nhit
tnh ln lao ny v thay i, c th t hi liu y khng ch mt l mt mt ca thi
nc i hay khng, v liu khng c s khng c thm kn no , cng ln vy, cn
phi khc phc hay khng. Nu ng vy, iu ny c th gii thch s hng hi sng o
hc no. on ny c ph phn trong cun The Road to Serfdom [Con ng dn ti Ch Nng n]
ca Hayek, tr. 143
116
Ph phn vn c hay nht ca hc thuyt mc ch lun m ti bit (v tc gi ca n l ngi chp
nhn quan im tn gio v c bit l thuyt sng th) c th thy trong chng cui ca cun The
Political Philosophies of Plato and Hegel ca M. B. Foster.
117
Xem cun The Open Society and Its Enemies ca ti, c bit ch. 2 f., c ch. 10, ni ti lp lun rng
chnh s tht bi ca th gii khng thay i ca mt x hi ng th s l ci, mt phn, chu trch nhim
cho s cng thng ca nn vn minh, v cho s sn sng chp nhn s tin nghi gi to ca ch ngha ton
tr v ca ch ngha lch s.

108

m vi n trit l c l v sp ny c tuyn b l s khm ph mi nht v do v

i nht ca khoa hc. Chng phi chnh cc nh lch s ch ngha l nhng ngi s
thay i nht hay sao? Chng phi chnh s s hi ny l ci lm cho h bt lc cng cc
n vy phn ng mt cch hp l i vi s ph phn, v l ci lm cho nhng ngi
khc d phn ng n vy i vi gio hun ca h hay sao? C nh cc nh lch s ch
ngha c th bi thng cho chnh h v s tht bi ca mt th gii khng thay i bng
cch bm vo nim tin rng s thay i c th c on trc bi v n c cai tr bi
mt qui lut khng thay i.

109

CH MC
(Trang c ch t tip theo l trang thut ng c gii thch; trang c
ch c tip theo l trang t xut hin trong ch thch)

A
Acton, Lord 57
Ad hoc 95
Adams, Henry 105c
Alexander i , Alexander the
Great 20, 24
A priori; tin nghim
Aristotle 1, 24, 25, 27, 29
m nhc; music 70
n d (php); metaphor 104-5,
110

B
Bacon, Francis 92n, 121c
Bn cht lun; essentialism 245t, 27-30, 36, 126; ~ phng
php lun; metodological ~
25t, 26-7, 28-9, 36, 109-10,
126
Bellarmino, Hng y gio ch;
Cardinal 122c
Berkeley, Gim mc; Bishop
122c
Bernal, J. D. 97c
Bi quan, ch ngha xem ch
ngha bi quan
Bin chng (php); dialectics
73, 80c, 138
Bismarck, O. von 20
Bohr, Niels 12, 83
Bruno, Giordano 134
B (tnh); complemetarity 83

C
Cch li cc nhn t; isolation of
factors 7, 10, 86, 129; xem c

tru tng ho; kha cnh;

chnh th lun
Cch mng; revolution 42, 57,
148-9; qui lut v ~ ca Plato;
Platos law of ~ 57
Cch tip cn k thut;
technological approach 53-6,
65-6
Ci cch; reforms 60-2
Ci chung, vn ca nhng;
problem of universals 23-5t
Can thip, ch ngha;
interventionism 55-6
Cnh tranh; competition 75-6c;
v t duy; of thought 143, 147
Carnap, Rudolf 114c
Cattell, R. B. 54c, 60c
Cu ton, ch ngha xem ch
ngha cu ton
Cu trc x hi; social structure
15-17, 20, 40, 41
Chc chn; certainty 121
Chn on; prognosis 114t, 1223
Chn l, s tht; truth 145
Chin tranh v Ho bnh 136-7
Chin tranh; war 36, 125
Chnh ph; governments 28
Chnh th lun; holism 15-17,
20, 60-2, 66, 67-8, 69, 70t-8,
82, 105, 147 (xem c l thuyt
hu c v x hi); nh mt
cch tip cn th thin; as a
primitive approach 69
Chnh tr, hc, hot ng;
politics 27, 38, 52, 57, 66, 81,
82-3, 143; ~ khoa hc;
scientific ~ 80-1

Ch ngha tp th; collectivism

64, 137-8
Ch ngha thn b; mysticism 72,
145
Ch ngha theo t nhin; pronaturalism 2t-3, 5-6, 45-6, 47,
54-5, 96-7, 103-6
Ch ngha tch cc; activism 67t, 44, 45, 46-7, 48, 55, 61, 65
Ch ngha t do; liberalism 61
Ch ngha x hi; socialism 77
Chc nng (thuyt);
functionalism 59-60
Chng minh l sai (s);
falsification 120-5, 126-7
Chuyn ch (s, ch );
tyranny 82-3, 101, 137
Cohen, M. R. 56c
Comte, August 65, 69c, 97,
103, 106, 107, 109, 110, 116,
119c, 120, 141, 145, 146
C sinh vt hc; palaeontology
97
Cng c; instruments 26; cc
nh ch nh cc ~;
institutions as 59-60
Cng ngh x hi xem k thut
x hi
Cng c, lm vng thm, chng
thc; corroboration 31-2, 80,
102, 114, 122c, 123

Chnh xc (tnh); exactness 11,

71-2
Ch ngha bi quan; pessimism
67
Ch ngha c nhn (phng
php lun); individualism
(methodological) 75-6c, 126,
131, 137-8, 146
Ch ngha can thip;
interventionism 55-6
Ch ngha cu ton;
perfectionism 69c
Ch ngha duy danh, xem thuyt
duy danh
Ch ngha hnh ng xem Ch
ngha tch cc
Ch ngha hin i; modernism
48, 148
Ch ngha khoa hc;
scientism 54-5t, 57c, 96t, 97,
103, 104-5
Ch ngha kinh nghim;
empiricism 121-2c
Ch ngha lc quan; optivism 45,
46-7, 48, 67
Ch ngha lch s, lch s ch
ngha; historicism, historicist
3t, 8-9, 27-9, 30, 34-6, 37-8,
40-1, 43, 44-9, 52, 59, 64, 65,
66-8, 73-4, 78, 87-8, 90-1, 92,
94, 96-7, 103-4, 106, 110c,
118, 119-20, 135, 136-7, 140,
141, 148-9; bc b ~;
refutation of ~ xi-xiii
Ch ngha phn t nhin; antinaturalism 2t-3, 17, 26, 56-7,
87, 91; xem c bn cht lun;
chnh th lun; l thuyt hu
c v x hi
Ch ngha tm l hc;
psychologism, 141, 142, 1434, 145-7

D
Dn ch (nn); democracy 84,
143
Dng k thut ca cc qui lut;
technological form of laws
56-8, 60, 128
o c (hc); ethics 48, 66c,
67, 68, 81-2, 84, 105c, 147;
xem c gi tr
Descartes, Ren 59c, 121c

151

Darwin, Charles, (ch ngha ~;

Darwinism) 54, 59c, 97-8
Din gii lch s; interpretation
of history 44-5, 46, 87-8, 13940
Dreyfus, Alfred 20
D bo xem tin on
D on xem tin on
Duhem, Pierre 121-2c
Duy danh, thuyt, ch ngha;
xem thuyt duy danh
Duy l (hnh ng, tnh);
rational action, rationality
59c, 130, 145; xem c logic
tnh hung

F
ff. (v [cc trang] tip theo)
Fisher, H. A. L. 100, 1001
Florence, P. Sargant 131
Foster, M. B. 148c
Frankel, O. 124c
Friedrich, C. J. 57c
Frish, Ragnar 132

G
Galileo Galilei 1, 54
Galton, F. 98
Gestalt 70-2, 76
Gi thuyt; hypothesis 41, 56,
60, 80, 90, 95, 97, 110c, 113,
121-3, 125, 127-8; ~ lch s;
historical ~ 98, 100, 139-40,
143
Gi tri, l thuyt xem l thuyt
gi tr
Gi tr; values 48-9, 117c; xem
c o c hc
Gii thch (s); explanation 18,
29, 31, 36, 112-15, 123; ~ lch
s; historical ~ 132-5, 137-9,
141-2
Gio dc; education 73, 83,
87c, 145
Ginsberg, M. 54c
Gomperz, H. 71c

a cht hc; geology 75

a l hc; geography 87, 92
iu chnh; adjustment 88
iu kin th nghim;
experimental conditions 85-7,
89, 129
nh ch x hi; social
institutions 16, 28, 40-1, 59t60, 66-7, 125, 130, 138, 143,
145, 146; nhn t con ngi
trong ~; the human factor in
60, 63-4, 145-7; phn tch ch
nh; institutional analysis
142-5
c ti, l thuyt v nh ~ nhn
t; theory of benevolent
dictator 83-4
ng hc x hi; social
dynamics 9-10, 35-6, 67-8,
103-4, 107-8, 116, 148

H
Haldane, J. B. S. 117c
Halley, Edmund 24
Hng hi; navigation 80
Hayek, F. A. von 51, 53c, 55,
56c, 71c, 83c, 96, 100c, 102c,
126-7, 128, 130c, 131c, 147c
H thng x hi; social systems
103-4, 105c
Hegel, G. W. F. 93c

E
Engels, F. 66c, 67c

152

Kh tng hc; meteorology 389, 67

Kha cnh; aspect 70-1, 74, 139
Khoa hc x hi, x hi hc;
social science, sociology 27-8,
30, 31, 42-3, 51, 53, 56, 125,
131, 146; s lc hu ca ~;
backwardness of ~ 1-3, 51;
phng php ca ~ xem
phng php; nhim v ca ~;
task of ~ 26-7, 31, 33-4, 37-8,
40-1, 47-8, 51, 52, 53-4, 96-7,
126; ~ k thut; technological
~ 41, 42-3
Khoa hc, ch ngha xem ch
ngha khoa hc
Khoa hc; science 50-1, 72,
127-8; ~ ng dng; applied ~
38-9, 50-2, 123, 135; ~ lch
s; historical ~ 132-6, 138-9;
c tnh cng cng ca ~;
public character of ~ 143-5,
147; ~ l thuyt hay khi qut
ho; theoretical or
generalizing ~ 50-2, 125
Khng chnh xc (tnh);
inexactitude 11-12, 33-4, 1289
Khng tng, ch ngha ~;
Utopia, Utopianism 41, 42,
45, 48, 67-8, 74-5, 78, 83, 85
Khuynh hng xem xu hng
K thut (ci bin); engineering
59-60, 68, 76-7, 79, 85, 144; ~
x hi; social ~ 38-9t, 40, 42,
53, 58-9t, 66-7 (xem c cng
ngh); ~ x hi tng phn;
piecemeal social ~ 58-9t, 61,
62, 63, 79, 85; ~ x hi Khng
tng; Utopian social ~ 61t-4,
67-8, 77
K thut x hi; social
technology 41, 53, 79-80; ~

Hempel, C. G. 134c
Henry VIII 84
Heraclitus 29, 148
Hesiod 91
Hin i, ch ngha; modernism
48, 148
Ho hc; chemistry 129-30, 135
Hume, David 59c
Husserl, Edmund 28
Hutt, W. H. 61c
Huxley, Julian 99c, 117c
Huxley, T. H. 50c, 98-9

I
Ibid (Latin):
nh trn
K
Kant, I. 51
Kepler, Johannes 92, 93
K hoch, lp; planning 40, 434, 45, 58c; nh chc trch ~
nhn t; benevolent ~
authority 83-4; ~ ngu hng
hay khng c k hoch;
improvised or unplanned ~
63; ~ Khng tng hay ton
din hay chnh th hay tp th
ch ngha; Utopian or largescale or holistic or collectivist
~ 64, 67, 68-9, 73, 74-5, 77,
81-5
Khch quan, tnh xem tnh
khch quan
Khi qut ho; generalizations
5-6, 7, 18, 37, 90, 93, 100,
101-2, 111, 122c, 124, 127;
xem c quy np (ch ngha)
Kh c x hi; social contract
59c

153

Logic tnh hung; situational

logic 138f.; xem c tnh duy l
Lng nhn t, s c ti, v k
hoch ho; benevolence,
dictatorship, and planning 834
Luther, Martin 83

tng phn; piecemeal ~ 53t,

54-60, 65-7
Kim sot; control 40, 68, 7273, 82-3; ~ t duy; of thought
142-3, 146-7
Kim tra xem trc nghim
King k (iu); taboo 91
Kinh nghim, ch ngha;
empiricism 121-2c
Kinh t hc; economics 2, 51,
52, 55, 56, 75-6c, 78-9, 107c,
131-2; cch tip cn lch s
ch ngha i vi; historicist
approach to 4-5, 6, 43-4, 119;
cch mng Newton trong ~ l
thuyt; Newtonian revolution
in theoretical 54c
Kraft, V. 121c
Kutuzov, M. I. 137

M
Machiavelli, Niccolo 84, 100
Malinowski, B. 60c
Mannheim, K. 61c, 62c, 64c, 69,
69c, 72, 72c, 73c, 74, 75c,
91c, 93-4c
Marschak, J. 131
Marx, Karl, Ch ngha ~;
Marxism 44, 46, 65, 67, 78,
93c, 119
Menger, Carl 120, 129c, 130c
Mill, J. S. 1-2, 56c, 65-6, 78c,
93c, 97, 106, 108-13, 115-16,
117-18, 119c, 120, 141-2,
145, 146
M hnh; models 125-6, 130-1,
134, 138
Mi trng; environment 87-8,
92-4
Mi, tnh xem tnh mi

L
Lc quan, ch ngha xem ch
ngha lc quan
Lao ng, phn cng; division of
labour 75-6c
L thuyt gi tr; value theory 52
L thuyt hu c ca x hi;
organic theory of society 8,
17, 20, 66, 74, 100-1; xem c
chnh th lun
Lch s; history 8-9, 29, 30, 345, 36, 49, 41, 74, 77-8, 87,
132-40; phn chia ~ thnh cc
giai on; divison of ~ into
periods 9, 37
Lippmann, W. 61
Loi tr (ch ngha, thuyt);
eliminationism 121-5
Loc. cit. (latin loco citalo: ch
trch dn)
Logic of Scientific Discovery
56c, 80c, 95c, 98c, 102c,
106c, 114c, 121c

N
Napoleon 137
Neurath, O. 94c
Newton, Isaac 1, 32, 54, 92-3,
105-6, 107, 115
Ngn ng; language 26, 59,
143, 144-5
Ng ngha hc; semantics 11415; ~ ca A. Tarski 114c
Nguyn t (ch ngha);
atomism, atoms 76, 94, 125,
126, 127-8

154

Ph phn (s), phng php ph

phn; criticism, critical
method 52, 53, 69, 79-80, 81,
124, 144, 147; cc nh ch
bo v; institutions to
safeguard 84, 143; cc th
nghim Khng tng b chn
bi ~; Utopian experiments
suppressed by ~ 82-4
Phc tp (tnh, ); complexity
10, 71-2, 129-30
Phng php nh lng;
quantitative method 21-3,
131-2
Phng php kt hp;
compositive method 130c
Phng php zero xem zero
Phng php, phng php
lun; method, methodology
24, 48-9, 51-2, 63, 64, 79-83,
90, 94-5, 109-10, 111-14,
120-1, 127; ~ lch s;
historical ~ 65, 74-5; ~ chnh
th lun; holistic ~ 71-2, 77; ~
chnh tr; political ~ 80-1; tnh
hu dng thc tin ca;
pratical usefulness of ~ 52;
cc kha cnh x hi ca ~;
social aspects of ~ 82-3, 1423; ~ x hi hc; sociological ~
1-2, 16-18, 41, 68-9, 80, 89,
109, 111-12; xem c ch
ngha phn t nhin; bn cht
lun; khi qut ho; gi
thuyt; ch ngha qui np;
thyt duy danh; tnh khch
quan; tin on; ch ngha
theo t nhin; tnh duy l;
khoa hc; kim chng
Plato 1, 24, 25, 27, 50c, 57, 67,
69, 100-1, 102
Poincar, Henri 121-2c
Polanyi, M. 50c

Nhn cch, tnh cch;

personality 15-16, 30, 74
Nhn khu hc; demography
105, 106, 119
Nhn loi hc; anthropology
59, 88
Nhn qu (tnh, gii thch);
causality, causal explanation
18, 22-3, 108, 112-16, 134;
quan im lch s ch ngha
v; historicist view of 10, 23,
36; trong lch s; in history
133-6; xem c gii thch
Nhm, tinh thn nhm; group,
group-spirit 15-17, 20-1, 30,
137-8; xem c chnh th lun
Nit bn; Nirvana 145

O
Oedipus, hiu ng; effect 11t,
13-14
Open Society and its Enemies,
The 49c, 58c, 67c, 114c, 131c,
148-9c
Op cit (latin, opere citalo: tc
phm dn)

P
Pasteur, Louis 1, 54
Pauli, W. 76c
Phn cng lao ng; division of
labour 75-6c
Phn loi (s); classifications
102c
Phn tch cu; demand analysis
52, 132
Phn t nhin, thuyt, ch ngha
xem ch ngha phn t nhin
Pht trin, x hi hay lch s;
social or historical
development 28, 29, 37, 40-1,
42, 43, 45, 46, 74, 104, 118

155

Robbins, Lionel 132c

Robinson Crusoe 7, 77
Russell, Bertrand 60c
Rt gn; reduction 111-12t,
115-16, 118, 125, 141-2, 1456

Pythagoras 58c, 104c

Q
Quan im; point of view 139-40
Quan st, s; observations 31,
34, 39, 78, 89-90, 112, 124,
138
Qui lut; laws 40-1, 55-7, 94-5,
98-100, 105-7, 112-15 (xem
c gi thuyt; gii thch); ~
nhn qu; causal ~ 22-3, 99,
107-8, 112-14; ~ lch s;
historical ~ 3, 4-5, 23, 32, 367, 40, 45, 98, 108-9, 110-11,
135; ~ lch s ca tin ho v
ca s k tp nhau; historical
~ of evolution and succession
97, 98-9, 106-10, 116, 118,
119c, 141; ~ t nhin; natural
~ 4, 22, 31-2, 55-6, 91-4; ~ x
hi hc; sociological 5-6, 23,
36-7, 40-1, 46, 56-7, 90-1,
106 (danh mc th d v 567); cc ~ x hi hc p dng
cho nghin cu lch s;
sociological laws applied to
historical study 34; dng k
thut ca ~; technological
form of 55-8
Qui v, qui gn xem rt gn
Quy np (ch ngha, thuyt);
inductivism 121-2c, 124-5,
127; xem c khi qut ho
Quyn lc; power 56-7, 60-1,
82-3, 84, 134
Quyn t do v khoa hc;
freedom and science 82-3,
142-7

S
Schmitt, C. 73c
Sinh hc; biology 1, 8, 10, 12,
26, 51, 97-9, 101-2, 116, 124,
130-1c; xem c chnh th lun;
l thuyt hu c v x hi
Socrates 61
Spencer, H. 66c, 67
Spinoza, B. de 83c, 146
Sprengler, O. 100
Status quo 57
Stephen, K. 110c
S tht xem chn l
Suy sp v sp ca cc
ch; decline and fall of
empires 142

T
Tarski, Alfred 114c
Tawney, R. H. 83-4
Tm l hc, ch ngha xem ch
ngha tm l hc
Tm l hc; psychology 1-2, 10,
12, 70-2, 75-6, 110c, 111; ~
nh mt khoa hc x hi; as a
social science 131, 146-7
Tp th, ch ngha; collectivism
64, 137-8
Tp trung ho; centralization 82
Tham nhng, Qui lut ca Lord
Acton v; Lord Actons Law
of corruption 57
Thn b, ch ngha, thuyt;
mysticism 72, 145

R
Raven, Charles E. 97c
Republic 57, 100-1

156

Thuyt phn t nhin xem ch

ngha phn t nhin
Thuyt theo t nhin xem ch
ngha theo t nhin
Thuyt v li; utilitarionism 66c
Tin b, thuyt tin b;
progress, progressivism 48,
65-6, 99c, 101c, 108, 109t,
117c, 118, 141-2, 145; ~ khoa
hc; scientific ~ 83, 94-5, 1423, 144-5, 147
Tin on; prediction 11, 31-2,
33, 37-9, 111,115, 122-3; ~
trong thin vn hc; in
astronomy 32-3; ~ lch s;
historical ~ 3, 35-6; ~ di hn
hay ton din; long-term or
large-scale ~ 32-3, 37, 39,
104; ~ trong kh tng hc; ~
in meteorology 38-9; tin tri
i li k thut; prophetic vs.
technological 38-40; ~ ngn
hn; short-term ~ 34, 39; ~
trong khoa hc x hi; ~ in
social science 13, 31, 33
Tin ho (s, thuyt); evolution,
evolutionism 46, 97-9, 100,
103, 105c, 106, 116-17, 147
Tin tri lch s; historical
prophecy 11, 38-40, 44-5,
104, 110-11, 118; i li tin
on k thut;
vs.technological prediction
xem tin on
Tn ngng xem tn gio
Tinbergen, J. 80c
Tnh cch xem nhn cch
Tnh ng u ca t nhin;
uniformity of nature 5, 94-5
Tnh ng u ca vin cnh;
uniformity of outlook 145
Tnh duy nht; uniqueness 1001, 135-6

Thay i (s); change 27-30, 35,

40-1, 44, 45-7, 48, 67, 68, 69,
87, 88, 91, 92, 94-5, 97, 1034, 106, 120, 148-9; gii thch
~; explanation of 95; siu
hnh hc v; metaphysics of
148
Theo t nhin, thuyt, ch ngha
xem ch ngha theo t nhin
Th nghim ct yu; crucial
experiment 122c
Th nghim, cc iu kin; xem
iu kin th nghim
Th nghim; experiment 90, 1267, 129 (xem c quan st); ~ ct
yu; crucial ~ 122c; th d v
cc ~ tng phn; examples of
piecemeal ~ 78-9; ~ x hi;
social ~ 7, 8, 39, 40, 76-81,
85, 86, 88, 129
Thin ng trn tri t;
heaven on earth 69c
Thin vn hc; astronomy 32,
33, 34, 35, 37, 39, 92-3, 97,
103-4; xem c vt l hc
Thng k hc; statistics 33, 52,
106; cc phng php thng
k trong kinh t hc;
statistical methods in
economics 52
Th xem trc nghim
Th bc ca cc khoa hc;
hiearchy of sciences 10, 1456
Th v sai; trial and error 69c,
80, 88, 90, 124
Thuyt chc nng; functionalism
59-60
Thuyt duy danh; nominalism
24t; ~ phng php lun;
methodological ~ 25-6t, 27
Thuyt duy thc; realism 24
Thuyt lch s; historism 14-15t

157

T nhin, theo, phn xem ch

ngha theo, phn t nhin
Ta-qui lut; quasi-law 107,
116
Tng t (s); similarity 85-6,
97
Tng t, s, php; analogy 20,
60, 75, 77
Tng tng (s); imagination
119-20
Tuyn truyn; propaganda 83,
145

Tnh hnh, tnh hung; situation

4, 9-10, 19-20, 57c, 87, 91-2
Tnh hc; statics 35, 67, 103-4,
107, 116
Tnh khch quan; objectivity
13t-14, 140, 143-4, 147
Tnh mi; novelty 8-10, 16, 21,
43, 136
Tnh nh d trong thi
Michiavelli v Henry VIII (v
thi ca ng b Webb v
Stalin); credulity in the age of
Michiavelli and Henry VIII
(and in that of the Webbs and
Stalin) 83-4
Ton hc; mathematics 21-2, 52,
109; kinh t hc ton hc;
mathemathical economics 52,
54c, 131
Tolstoy, L. N. 136-7, 138
Toynbee, A. 100, 101, 102,
102c, 103, 137c
Tn gio; religion 97, 145, 149
Trc nghim, tnh c th trc
nghim c; tests, testability
31-2, 51, 64, 76-7, 81, 90, 99100, 102, 115, 119c, 120-3,
125, 127-8, 139-40, 143
Tri thc, hn ch ca;
limitations of knowledge 58-9,
71-2, 82-3
Troeltsch, E. 74c
Trc gic; intuition 125, 127-8;
hiu bit trc gic; intuitive
understanding 17-21, 27, 713, 127-8
Tru tng (ho, s); abstract,
abstraction 70, 72, 74-75,
93c, 126, 129-30
Truyn thng; tradition 16, 17,
146
T do, ch ngha; liberalism 61

V
Vn minh (cc nn);
civilizations 101, 102c, 103
Vn , cc; problems 112, 123,
124; tnh cht cng ca ~;
public character of ~ 53-4;
la chn ca ~; selection of ~
50-2, 53-4, 112; ~ l thuyt,
trc th nghim; theoretical
~, prior to experiments 89-90
Vt l hc; physics 1, 4, 9, 12,
16, 17-18, 21-3, 26, 27-8, 31,
35-6, 38-9, 56, 59, 76, 85-6,
87, 88, 89, 94-5, 103-4, 105-6,
107-8, 110c, 115, 116, 122c,
130-1, 132
Veblen, Thorstein 50c
V li, thuyt xem thuyt v li
Vico, Giambattista 101
Vng i; life cycle 100, 101,
101c, 102c
Vua-trit gia; philosopher-king
42

W
Waddington, C. H. 66c, 97c,
105c, 110c, 147c
Webb, Sidney v Beatrice 79c
Weber, Max 134c, 135c

158

White, M. G. 134c
Wundt, W. M. 1

Xc nhn; conformation 102,

124, 139-40; xem c chng
thc
Xu hng; trends 19-21, 29, 32,
36, 40-1, 77, 100, 103, 109,
110-12, 116-19, 141

X
X hi hc tri thc; sociology of
knowledge 14-15t, 91, 143-4
X hi hc xem khoa hc x hi
X hi nh mt tng th;
society as a whole 61-4, 656, 68, 72-3, 74-5, 77, 81, 105,
109
X hi, cc h thng xem h
thng x hi

Z
Zero, phng php; zero method
130-1t, 145-6
Zweig, F. 69c

T sch SOS2
Karl Popper, S Khn cng ca Ch ngha Lch s
Lng tin vo vn mnh lch s ch l s m tn. Hc thuyt tin
vo vn mnh lch s v tin vo vic c th tin on din tin
ca lch s, v trn c s c th ci bin x hi mt cch
tng th cho ph hp vi cc qui lut ny, l hc thuyt ngho
nn, dn ti vic ci bin con ngi cho ph hp vi cc qui
lut khch quan , dn ti hu hoi tnh khch quan ca
khoa hc v bn thn khoa hc v c hai th ny ph thuc
vo s cnh tranh t do ca t duy. Chng ta th v sai, v ch
c th th hc c t cc sai lm ca mnh. X hi cng c
th c ci thin, lm cho x hi t do hn, nhn bn hn,
nhng ch c th tin hnh dn dn, tng phn, t bc ny
sang bc khc mt cch thn trng thng qua th v sai. y
l phng php ca ci cch, cng l phng php ca cc
khoa hc. l thng ip quan trng nht ca cun sch ny
cho chng ta, nhng ngi thnh tht mun ci cch. V ng
thi cng l mt th thch: liu chng ta c kh nng hc t
cc sai lm ca mnh hay khng?

159

viii
Karl R. Popper sinh Vin, th o, nm 1902. Cng nh
nhiu ngi Do Thi khc, b ch ngha Pht xt e do trong
cc nm 1920-1930, ng di c sang New Zealand, sau sang
Anh. ng c nh gi l trit gia v i nht ca th k hai
mi. ng ni ting trong lnh vc trit hc khoa hc, trit
hc lch s, v phng php lun khoa hc. Cc cng trnh
ni ting nht ca ng gm: Logik der Forschung (1934)
[Logic of Scientific Discovery (1959) ]; Poverty of Historicism
(1944-1945) [Cun sch ny]; The Open Society and Its
Enemies (1945).

viii