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methodology
Sebastian Thns
BAM Berlin, Division Buildings and Structures
ETH Zrich, Chair of Risk and Safety
Content
Limit state and uncertainty model for steel shells
Uncertainty model
Adaptive response surface methodology
ov = rRpl / rRcr
ov 0
ov = 1
ov 0
0 < ov < p ov = 1
p 0
ov = 2
p ov
ov
Thickness deviation f t
1.2
0.7
Yield Strength f y
LN
370
24.23
Component capacity C
Response Surface
Stress ratio M /
Response Surface
Response Surface
Response Surface
Numerical analysis
Methodological overview
Regression analysis
y = X +
1 x11 x1(r 1)
1 x
x 2(r 1)
21
X=
1
x
x
n1
n (r 1)
E ( y X, XS ) = XSb
Cov ( y X, XS ) = ( XS N 1XST + I )
1
T
( y - Xb ) ( y - Xb )
=np
=
p = rank( X)
l2
= F1/4
1
F ( (F + 2k + n 0 ) F 2
Qeff
1
(m)T 1 (m)
Min
n x N x dx
dx R
R
=
Q ( * )
Orthogonal design
Q-efficiency
7
n
v S dx
dx U r
Ur
Numerical analysis
Design augmentation
Response surface
Regression analysis
Reliability calculation
Reliability calculation with Monte Carlo,
FORM etc.
u2
w CDP
u1
u2
11
= arg min u T u
2
g ( u ( x)) = 0
g ( u 0 ) g ( u 0 ) u 0
T
g ( u 0 ) g ( u 0 )
T
u 0 + v = g(u 0 )
pf =
1 m fX ( x)
Ig ( x )
n k =1 h Y ( x )
hY (x) =
Reliability calculation
Importance sampling with a multivariate
Normal sampling density function
1
1
exp (x x* )CXX (x x* )
n/2
2
2
det
C
( )
XX
12
Tower segment I
Structural model
Shell element basis
Contact formulation for tripod-foundation
connection
Tower segment II
Upper brace
Lower brace
Pile guide
Reinforced concrete
Linear
springs
force
and
moment
13
Distr.
Mean
Stand.
Dev.
LN
1.0
Modulus of elasticity E
LN
210000 6300
LN
1.0
WB
0.4891 0.2256
0.6
0.1
Uncertainty model
Structural and loading models are
parameterised
Probabilistic models according to JCSS
Probabilistic Model Code
Derivation with sensitivity analysis
14
SegmentIII
Results
Buckling
..
Component8
4,07x107
Component9
6,61x107
Component
10
6,59x10
Component
11
<10
15
16