NHP MN DN S HC

GV: ThS. Trn Th Tuyt Nga

P : Tng s dn

V : s lt khm bnh/ngi/nm
T : tng s lt khm/nm

T=VxP
i ng NVYT: y, bc s,
iu dng, h sinh,
C s khm, cha bnh,
PHCN

Khng i

1.KHI NIM DN S V DN S HC
Dn c

Tp hp nhng ngi cng c tr trn

mt lnh th nht nh (x, huyn, tnh,
quc gia, chu lc, hay ton b tri t)

Dn c ca mt vng lnh th l khch

th nghin cu chung ca nhiu b mn
khoa hc.

1.KHI NIM DN S V DN S HC
Dn s

L dn c c xem xt, nghin cu

gc : quy m v c cu

- Quy m v c cu dn s trn mt lnh

th khng ngng bin ng
Dn s hc

L mn hc nghin cu v dn s, v c
bn lin quan n quy m, c cu v s
pht trin dn s.
United Nation, 1958
4

1.KHI NIM DN S V DN S HC
John Graunt (1620 1674)

The

founder of Mordern
Demography

Pht

trin phng php

thng k v iu tra dn s
c s cho DSH hin i

Sng

lp Bng sng

1.KHI NIM DN S V DN S HC

Nm 1855, Achille Guillard (1799

1876) vit tc phm i cng v

thng k con ngi hay Dn s hc so
snh

nh

du s ra i ca mn DSH

1.KHI NIM DN S V DN S HC

Nm 1945 A Landry -Chuyn lun v dn s

hc: phn bit dn s hc nh lng (bin
ng v lng) v dn s hc nh tnh (bin
ng v cht)

Nm 1959 cc nh khoa hc ca 7 nc (M,

Php, Anh, c, Thy in, Brazil, v n )
xut: DSH nghin cu s lng, phn b v c
cu dn s, cng nh s vn ng t nhin, vn
ng c hc v vn ng x hi ca n.
7

1.KHI NIM DN S V DN S HC

Nm 1969, DSH c nh ngha l mn

khoa hc nghin cu dn s trn c 2 gc
: trng thi tnh v trng thi ng.

Trng thi tnh gm 3 b phn ch yu: quy m,

c cu v phn b dn s ti mt thi im nht
nh.

Trng thi ng gm 3 trng thi ch yu: bin

ng t nhin, bin ng c hc v bin ng
x hi.
8

1.KHI NIM DN S V DN S HC

Dn s c nh

Gia nh

Dn s ng

Th h ng sinh

Dn s gi/tr

Th h sinh sn

T sut th

on h - nghin cu
on h

T sut c trng

Gi ha dn s

Mc sinh thay th

Xung lng dn s

S o on h

S o thi k

Dn s n nh

Xem sch Bi ging Dn s

9

1.KHI NIM DN S V DN S HC
H
Mt hoc nhiu ngi sng trong mt n v nh . H gm
nhng ngi khng c quan h h hng hoc nhng ngi c
quan h huyt thng, hoc nhn nui.
Th h sinh sn
Tp hp cc ph n m nhim chc nng sinh sn trong mt
thi k.
on h
Nhm ngi c chung c im nhn khu hc c kho st
theo chiu thi gian.
T sut th
L hin tng nhn khu hc xut hin trong sut thi k so vi
ton b dn s.
T sut c trng
S d kin nhn khu xy ra nhm ring bit no so vi dn
s chnh nhm ring bit .
10

1.KHI NIM DN S V DN S HC
DS n nh: ds c mc sinh thp, mc t thp v duy tr
trong thi gian di.

DS c nh: ds n nh c s sinh bng s cht.

DS ng: ds khng c nhp c v xut c.

Tng sng ngi t 65 tui tr ln so vi ton b dn s:

< 4%

: dn s tr

4 <7%

: dn s trng thnh

7%

: dn s gi
11

1.KHI NIM DN S V DN S HC
DS gi ha_(aging population): Mt ds c gi l gi ha
khi s ngi t 65 tui tr ln chim t 7%- 9,9% dn s.

DS gi_aged pop.

: 10%- 19,9%.

DS rt gi_very aged pop.

: 20% - 29,9%.

DS siu gi_hyper aged pop.

: >=30%.

(The aging popualtion in Vietnam, UNFPA)

Ch s gi ha (aging index) c tnh bng s ngi t 60

tui tr ln so vi 100 ngi di 15 tui. (theo UN)
12

1.KHI NIM DN S V DN S HC
(% 60+)
180

158

150

129

120

92

90
56

60
30

16

17

24

1989

1999

37

35

2007

2010

0
1979

2020

2030

2040

2050

Ch s gi ha ca Vit Nam
(Ngun: S liu 1979-2007 t Tng cc Thng k; s liu 2010-2050 t D bo dn s 2008
13 ca LHQ)

2.I TNG V LNH VC NGHIN CU

I TNG NGHIN CU

Ti sx dn s theo ngha hp: l qu trnh

thay th khng ngng cc th h dn s k
tip nhau thng qua cc s kin sinh v t.

Ti sx dn s theo ngha rng: l qu trnh

thay th khng ngng cc th h dn s k
tip nhau thng qua cc s kin sinh, t v
di c.
14

2.I TNG V LNH VC NGHIN CU

LNH VC NGHIN CU
o Dn s hc nh lng
Trng thi ng
Trng thi tnh
Vn ng t nhin
Quy m DS
Vn ng c hc
C cu / cu trc DS
Vn ng x hi
Phn b DS
o Dn s hc nh tnh
Cht lng dn s
Th cht
Tr tu
Kh nng ti sinh sn
15

3.O LNG S THAY I QUY M DN S

Sinh
Nhp c

Dn s

Xut c

T vong
Phng trnh cn bng dn s:

Pt - P0 = (B-D) + (I E)

16

QU DN S

L s bin i s lng dn s do tc ng ca
mc sinh, mc cht thay i trong dn s

Chuyn i dn s t mc sinh v t cao sang

mc sinh v t thp

Khi nim qu dn s c pht trin t thc

t lch s pht trin dn s ca Chu u v M,

sau p dng rng ri cho dn s cc nc.

17

QU DN S

18

QU DN S

Giai on 1: T sut sinh cao, t sut t cao, t

Giai on 2: T sut sinh cao, t sut t gim, t

Giai on 3: T sut sinh gim, t sut t tng

Giai on 4: T sut sinh v t u thp v khng

sut pht trin t nhin khng tng hay tng t.

sut pht trin t nhin tng cao.

i thp, t sut pht trin t nhin gim.

i, t sut pht trin thp, khng i trong thi

gian di, dn s n nh.
19

QU DN S
Cc nc pht trin

Cc nc ang pht trin

Mc sinh v t thp trong

thi gian di

Trc CTTG II, mc sinh v t

cao

Mc sinh v t gim u
sut hn 200 nm

Mc t gim nhanh sau CTTG

II.

T sut gia tng dn s cao T sut gia tng dn s t cc

nht TK XIX l 1i na sau TK XX, khong 2.5
2%/nm
3.5%/nm.

20

QU DN S

Cc nc Chu u, M, Canada, c, New Zealand,

Nht, Trung Quc hon tt 4 giai on ca qu
dn s

ng , M Latinh, Trung ng, Nam Phi hu ht

giai on 3.

Nam (Pakistan), cn Sahara giai on 2

21

QU DN S
Sau giai on 4 l g?

Quy m dn s n nh vi mc sinh v t cn bng?

Hoc

T sut sinh tip tc gim v quy m dn s tip tc

gim?

VD: Cc nc Ty u ang tri qua giai on

mc sinh tip tc gim quy m dn s tip tc
gim

22

4.TNH HNH DN S TH GII

T ngi

Nm/nm d bo

Khong cch

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

1800
1930
1960
1974
1987
1999
2011
2025
2050
2100

130
30
14
13
12
12
14
25
50

23

4.TNH HNH DN S TH GII

4.TNH HNH DN S TH GII

25

4.TNH HNH DN S TH GII

26

Source: the Economist

4.TNH HNH DN S TH GII

Ngun: PBR, 2016

27

4.TNH HNH DN S TH GII

10 thnh ph c dn s nhiu nht th gii, 2015,2016

28

4.TNH HNH DN S TH GII

10 thnh ph c dn s nhiu nht th gii, 2015, 2016

29

4.TNH HNH DN S TH GII

30

4.TNH HNH DN S TH GII

31

5.TNH HNH DN S VIT NAM

Nm

Dn s (triu ngi)

Tc tng dn s (%)

1945

23

0,64

1955

25

3,4

1965

35

3,2

1975

47,6

3,2

1985

60

2,5

1990

66,7

2,2

1999

76,3

2,0

2009

85,8

1,2

2013

90

1,1

32

Ngun: Ti liu Dn s hc c bn, 2011

5.TNH HNH DN S VIT NAM

Tng iu tra dn s 0 gi ngy 1/4/2009

Quy m ds: >85,8 triu ngi

So vi 1999: tng 9,5 triu ngi (tng 952.000

ngi/nm)

3 n v cp tnh c quy m ds >3 triu ngi:

Tp.HCM (7,2 triu) , HN (6,5 triu), Thanh Ha (3,4
triu)

Mc gia tng dn s tip tc gim, t sut tng bnh

qun nm gim t 1,7% (1989-1999) xung 1,2%
(1999-2009)

33

Ngun: Bo co kt qu chnh thc tng iu tra dn s v nh 1/4/2009

5.TNH HNH DN S VIT NAM

Tng iu tra dn s 0 gi ngy 1/4/2009

Tng t sut sinh lin tc gim t nm 2006 v t

di mc thay th, nhng quy m dn s vn tip tc
tng do s lng ph n n tui sinh tng

T sut cht tr em di 1 tui gim cn 36,7 %0

T sut cht th gim, ch yu l do s lng ngi

gi tng mnh

T trng dn s <15 tui gim cn 24,5% so vi

33,1% (1999)

Ch s gi ha tng v cao hn mc trung bnh ca

cc nc khu vc N , tng ng Indonesia v
Phillipine, thp hn Singapore v Thi Lan
34

Ngun: Bo co kt qu chnh thc tng iu tra dn s v nh 1/4/2009

5.TNH HNH DN S VIT NAM

35

Ngun: Tng cc Thng k, 2016

5.TNH HNH DN S VIT NAM

36