CC YU T RI RO NH HNG N CHI PH U T

XY DNG CNG TRNH THY IN VA V NH VIT

NAM
Tm tt: Hin nay ti Vit Nam, lng in nng do thy in sn xut chim mt t trng
ln trong c cu sn xut in, ng vai tr quan trng cho an ninh nng lng Quc gia. T
nm 2005 tr li Nh nc u t kh nhiu cng trnh thy in trn khp c nc, trong
thy in va v nh c ch trng v nng cao. Tuy nhin, cc d n u t xy dng thy
in vn cha c quan tm tha ng, nhiu cng trnh thy in cha c quan tm ng
mc gp rt nhiu s c v ri ro trong qu trnh TXD. Do vic xc nh cc yu t ri ro
c th nh hng n chi ph u t xy dng thy in va v nh l mt vn ht sc
quan trng v cn thit trong giai on hin nay. Bi bo ny xut danh mc cc yu t ri
ro c kh nng nh hng n chi ph u t xy dng cng trnh thy in va v nh Vit
Nam nhm gip cho ngi lm cng tc qun l v cc n v lin quan ch ng hn trong
vic iu hnh v qun l d n gip gim thit hi trong qu trnh u t xy dng.
1. GII THIU CHUNG
Hn 10 nm tr li y Nh nc u t
kh nhiu cng trnh thy in trn khp c
nc, trong thy in va v nh c
ch trng v nng cao. Tuy nhin trong nhiu
nm qua nhiu tnh cha quan tm y
n cng tc quy hoch, cp php mt cch
d dng i vi cc d n thy in va v
nh m cha quan tm ng mc n cng
tc thm nh, thit k, xy dngThy in
nh tr thnh phong tro mang tnh t pht,
thiu s qun l v ch o thng nht kh
nhiu tnh.
Vic chnh ph loi b 424 d n thy
in, chim 34,2%, trong tng s 1.239 d n
cho thy mc km hiu qu v ri ro trong
u t xy dng i vi cng trnh thy in
va v nh l rt cao.
Vit Nam, vic nhn nhn nh gi cc
ri ro cc d n vn cha c quan tm
tha ng, nhiu s c, ri ro trong qu trnh
u t xy dng cng trnh m suy cho cng
l ri ro gy thit hi n chi ph u t xy
dng cc d n. Do vic nhn dng, phn
tch, xc nh v nh gi mc nh hng
bi cc yu t ri ro n chi ph u t xy
dng d n c gii php phng trnh v
gim thiu c ngha ht sc quan trng v
cn thit.

2. PHNG PHP NGHIN CU

Phng php tng hp, phn tch, thng
k, so snh;
Phng php nghin cu tng quan t cc
nghin cu th gii v trong nc.
3. KT QU NGHIN CU
3.1. Phn tch v nh gi cc nghin cu
ri ro ca cc tc gi Vit Nam
Nghin cu ca Trn Hong Tun (2014)
Nghin cu cc nhn t nh hng n chi
ph v thi gian hon thnh d n trong giai
on thi cng trng hp nghin cu trn a
bn Cn Th.Nghin cu nhn dng v
a ra c 26 yu t c kh nng nh hng
n chi ph v thi gian hon thnh d n.
Nghin cu ca nhm tc gi Nguyn
Quc Tun, Lu Trng Vn v H Ngc
Phng (2005) Phn tch ri ro v chi ph
ca d n TXD trong giai on thi cng.
Mc tiu chnh ca nghin cu ny l nhn
dng cc nhn t ri ro tc ng n chi ph
ca nh thu trong giai on thi cng t
thit lp m hnh m phng phn tch ri
ro tc ng n chi ph ca nh Thu.
Nghin cu Cc nhn t nh hng n
s bin ng chi ph ca d n xy dng ca
nhm tc gi Nguyn Th Minh Tm, Cao
Ho Thi (2009). Mc tiu ca nghin cu l

xy dng m hnh xc nh nguyn nhn gy

bin ng gia chi ph k hoch v chi ph
thc t ca d n ng thi xut mt s
gii php gii quyt vn nhm nng cao
hiu qu cng tc qun l chi ph.
3.2. Phn tch v nh gi cc nghin cu
ri ro ca cc tc gi trn th gii
Mai S Hng & Jianqiong Wang (2016),
nghin cu xc nh cc yu t ri ro gy
chm tr trong hp ng EPC cc d n xy
dng thy in Vit Nam. Nhm tc gi
nghin cu ch ra nhng c im ca cc ri
ro tim n dn n s chm tr trong tin
xy dng cc d n thy in. Nhm tc gi
a ra c 7 yu t ri ro chnh dn n s
chm tr tin xy dng gm cc yu t
sau: ri ro t hp ng (B1), ri ro chnh tr
v php lut (B2), ri ro t cng ngh (B3),
ri ro t cc iu kin t nhin v mi trng
x hi (B4), ri ro t nn kinh t (B5), ri ro
trong vic qun l d n (B6), ri ro t cc
nh thu (B7).
S.Kucukali (2011) nh gi ri ro ca cc
nh my thy in bng cch s dng logic
tp m tip cn. Nghin cu da trn cc
cuc phng vn chuyn gia lnh vc nghin
cu a ra cc yu t ri ro nh hng n
d n TXD thy in nh: a cht, vn
s dng t, cc vn v mi trng, kt
ni h thng in, nh hng ca cng ng
v ngi s dng cc vng xung quanh, ti
chnh (tnh trng ca lm pht v li sut),
thin tai, chnh tr, c s h tng. Da trn
kt qu kho st v phn tch cho thy nhng
ri ro c lin quan nht l cc vn v a
cht thy vn v vn mi trng c nh
hng rt ln n d n
Theo nghin cu ca Carneiro v Ferreira
(2012); Agrawal (2012); Cucchiella et al
( 2012); Leach et al (2011); Nikolic et al
(2011); Rangel (2008) v Cleijne v
Ruijgroks (2004) nhng loi ri ro tim nng
ln khi u t xy dng cc nh my thy
in nh c cho l c lin quan n d n:
xy dng/hon thnh, cng ngh, a cht,
thy vn, kinh t, ti chnh, chnh tr, mi
trng, thin nhin v vn ha x hi...

Nghin cu ca Neha Chhabra v cng s

(2013) nghin cu xc nh cc yu t ri ro
trong cc d n thy in nh, c khong 37
bin c nguy c nh hng n cc d n
thy in nh trn ton th gii. Trng hp
nghin cu in hnh Uttarakhand SHP
thng qua s dng phng php phng vn
trc tip cc chuyn gia c kinh nghim t
15-18 nm trong ngnh cho kt qu c tng
cng 32/37 yu t ri ro ni trn c xc
nh c nh hng n d n thy in nh
trong giai on xy dng v vn hnh.
Theo
Patrick
WIEMANN,
Gerald
MLLER, James SENIOR U.K (2007)
nghin cu v qun l ri ro trong thy in
nh, ct nc thp th c rt nhiu ri ro khc
nhau, chia thnh 4 loi chnh: th nht l cc
ri ro v kinh t - ti chnh (ri ro vt chi
ph, ri ro gi, nguy c lm pht, thit hi i
vi bn th 3); th 2 l cc ri ro v k thut,
cng ngh (s chm tr t cc nh cung cp,
nh hng ca thi tit, s c k thut, hiu
sut lm vic, ri ro ca s i mi, yu t
bt kh khng); th 3 l cc ri ro v kinh t
x hi (nhng thay i trong lut, thay i v
thu, yu t chnh tr tc ng) v cui cng
l ri ro v mi trng ( nhim ting n,
cht lng nc, thc vt v ng vt).
Nghin cu cng ch ra rng qun l ri ro
l phi nhn thc c tt c cc loi ri ro
v phi c chin lc loi b hay gim
thiu mt cch hiu qu gip cc bn c y
thng tin v a ra quyt nh tt hn.
3.3. Phn tch nhn dng cc yu t ri ro
c bn nh hng n chi ph u t xy
dng thy in va v nh
Trn c s cc nghin cu tc gi tng
hp c danh mc cc yu t ri ro c bn
(32 yu t) c sp xp thnh 6 nhm c
kh nng nh hng n chi ph TXD cng
trnh Thy in va v nh Vit Nam
(Bng 1.1). Tc gi nhn thy c rt nhiu
im chung v mt s loi ri ro gia quc
gia pht trin v ang pht trin. Tuy nhin
cc yu t ri ro li xut hin nhiu hn cc
quc gia ang pht trin ni lut php cn

yu, cha cht ch v cn nhiu yu t bt

n.
Bng 1.1. Cc yu t ri ro tc ng n chi ph u t xy dng d n Thy in va v nh

4. KT LUN
T nhng phn tch trn, tc gi kin ngh
cc vn tip tc nghin cu nh sau:
+ Tip tc nghin cu la chn, b
sung, iu chnh nhm cc yu t ri ro trong
TXD thy in va v nh ph hp vi tnh
hnh v iu kin thc t Vit Nam trong
giai on hin nay v trong tng lai;
+ S dng hai phng php nghin cu
nh tnh v nghin cu nh lng xc
nh kt qu cho nghin cu;
+ Xc nh nhm yu t chnh c nh
hng ln n chi ph TXD thy in va
v nh, ng thi xut gii php i ph,
kim sot mt s yu t ri ro .
5. TI LIU THAM KHO
Ting Vit:
[1] Nguyn Th Minh Tm, Cao Ho Thi
trng i hc Bch Khoa, HQG HCM
(2009) Cc nhn t nh hng n s bin
ng chi ph ca d n xy dng Tp ch
pht trin khoa hc v cng ngh s 01/2009
[2] Nguyn Quc Tun, Lu Trng Vn v
H Ngc Phng (2005) Phn tch ri ro v
chi ph ca d n u t xy dng trong giai
on thi cng i hc Bch Khoa Thnh
ph HCM.

[3] Trn Hong Tun (2014), Cc nhn t

nh hng n chi ph v thi gian hon
thnh d n trong giai on thi cng trng
hp nghin cu trn a bn Cn Th, tp
ch Khoa hc trng i hc Cn Th.
Ting Anh:
[4] Agrawal, A., 2012. Risk mitigation
strategies for renewable energy project
financing. Strategic Planning for Energy and
the Environment, 32(2), 9-20.
[5] Carneiro, P and Ferreira.P. 2012. The
economic, environmental and strategic value
of biomass. Renewable Energy, 44, 17-22.
[6] Hung, M.S. and Wang, J.Q. (2016)
Research on Delay Risks of EPC
Hydropower Construction Projects in
Vietnam. Journal of Power and Energy
Engineering, 4, 9-16
[7] Leach, A., Doucet, J., and Nickel, T.,
2011. Renewable fuels: Policy effectiveness
and project risk. Energy Policy, 39(7), 40074015. 14
[8] Nikolic, D. M., Jednak, S., Benkovic, S.,
and Poznanic, V., 2011. Project finance risk
evaluation of the Electric power industry of
Serbia. Energy Policy, 39(10), 6168-6177.

[9] Patrick WIEMANN, Gerald MLLER,

James SENIOR (2007) Risk management and
resolution strategies for established and novel

technologies in the
hydropower market.

low

head,

small