Min Trung - Ty Nguyn

NH GI TC NG CA NGNH DU LCH
N TNG TRNG KINH T TNH BNH NH BNG M HNH KINH T LNG
? NG TH THANH THY

Ngnh du lch (DL) c xem l ngnh

kinh t mi nhn gp phn thc y
tng trng kinh t Bnh nh. Tuy
nhin, trong thc t ngnh ny
ng gp nh th no vo tng trng
kinh t a phng? y l vn cn
phi lng ha mt cch c th. Do
m hnh nh gi tc ng ca ngnh
du lch n tng trng kinh t l mc
tiu ca bi nghin cu xc nh mi
quan h ca ngnh du lch vi tng
trng kinh t.

1. L thuyt xy dng m hnh

Doanh thu du lch
(bin c lp: TOUR)

Tng trng kinh t

(bin ph thuc: GDP)

Lng khch du lch

(bin c lp: LK)

Tc gi xy dng m hnh kim tra tc ng ca

ngnh du lch n tng trng kinh t tnh Bnh
nh l m hnh tuyn tnh tng qut vi ba bin
c la chn vo m hnh l GDP (i din cho tng
trng kinh t) bin ph thuc; TOUR (doanh thu du
ThS., Trng i hc Quy Nhn.

20

Phat trien

GDP t = 0 + 1 TOURt + 2 LKt + u t (1)

Trong , GDP l tng sn phm a phng theo
gi so snh, TOUR l doanh thu du lch theo gi so
snh, LK l lng khch du lch, u l sai s ca m
hnh.
Tuy nhin vic s dng m hnh ny trong nghin
cu vn tn ti mt s hn ch nht nh, v y l
m hnh ch c ba bin s l GDP, doanh thu du lch
v lng khch du lch; trong khi , trn thc t c
nhiu yu t khc ca ngnh du lch tc ng n
tng trng kinh t, do khi s dng m hnh ny
c nhiu yu t tc ng n tng trng kinh t
khng c kim sot nh chi tiu ca khch du lch,
vn u t du lch, ngun nhn lc, ti nguyn du
lch,...
2. C s d liu hi quy
Da vo phn mm Eviews hi quy. Trong :
+ Bin ph thuc: GDP (t ng)

Hnh 1. M hnh tng quan gia ngnh du lch

v tng trng kinh t

lch) v LK (lng khch du lch) i din cho ngnh

du lch l bin c lp. Do , m hnh nghin cu c
dng nh sau:

Kinh te - Xa hoi
a Nang

+ Bin c lp: TOUR doanh thu (t ng), LK

lng khch (lt).
Thi k la chn nghin cu nh lng v tc
ng ca ngnh du lch n tng trng kinh t
Bnh nh l t nm 1995 n 2014. Tc gi thu thp
s liu GDP theo gi so snh v doanh thu du lch
theo gi hin hnh t Nin gim thng k tnh Bnh
nh v S Thng mi Du lch Bnh nh. Tuy nhin,
doanh thu du lch khng c tnh theo gi so snh,

Min Trung - Ty Nguyn

do , tnh c ch tiu ny, tc gi da vo ch

tiu ch s gi GDP (DGDP = GDP danh ngha/GDP thc
t) quy i t doanh thu du lch theo gi hin hnh
sang doanh thu du lch theo gi so snh.
Bng 1. Tng doanh thu du lch, du khch v
tng sn phm a phng tnh Bnh nh
giai on 1995 - 2014
TOUR
(theo
gi
hin
hnh
- t
ng)

TOUR
(theo
gi so
snh
- t
ng)

1,1377

27,231

23,93

73270

2627,6
2869,8
3071,4
3359,3
3661,3
3873,9
4173,6
4565,4
5047,5
5607,7
6287,6
7086,4

1,1883
1,197
1,2555
1,2447
1,2542
1,2694
1,3953
1,4267
1,6186
1,8351
1,9428
2,0982

32,037
32,677
33,003
33,366
44,899
50,09
54,485
60,279
74,989
89,975
109,92
142,72

26,96
27,30
26,29
26,81
35,8
39,46
39,05
42,25
46,33
49,03
56,58
68,02

86200
87924
92320
96819
120890
146396
162579
183340
275000
380000
450000
560000

7810,7
8494,1
9364,3
10325
11155
12110
13281

2,4742
2,5582
3,0784
3,4761
3,6256
3,7148
3,9376

189,9
212,95
298,27
363,19
453,89
520,08
602,46

76,75
83,24
96,89
104,48
125,19
140
153

712800
835000
1040000
1176500
1462314
1696284
2084400

GDP
thc
t
(t
ng)

DGDP

1995

2388,7

1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014

Nm

LK
(lt)

Bng 2. Kt qu c lng m hnh (1)

Dependent Variable: GDP
Method: Least Squares
Sample: 1995 2014
Included observations: 20
Variable

Coefficient Std. Error

3. La chn m hnh ti u
Trn c s l thuyt v b s liu thu thp c,
tin hnh hi quy m hnh hi quy kinh t lng da
vo phn mm Eviews 6 vi mc ngha 5% (tc
tin cy 95%) nhm xc nh mi quan h gia TOUR,
LK v GDP ti Bnh nh. Trn c s nh gi, kim
nh cc m hnh (v hin tng a cng tuyn, t
tng quan, tnh dng v khc phc cc gi thit b vi
phm) t chn ra m hnh tt nht phn nh mi
quan h gia ngnh du lch v tng trng kinh t ti
tnh Bnh nh. Kt qu hi quy cc m hnh c th
hin nh sau:

Prob.

TOUR
LK

124,9851 21,45101 5,826537

-0,002740 0,001422 -1,926087

0,0000
0,0710

-81,20155 567,3978 -0,143112

0,8879

R-squared

Ngun: Nin gim thng k tnh Bnh nh v S

Thng mi Du lch Bnh nh

t-Statistic

0,986717Mean dependent var 6358,030

Adjusted
R-squared
S.E. of
regression
Sum squared
resid
Log
likelihood

0,985154S.D. dependent var

3413,234

415,8855Akaike info criterion 15,03618

2940333.Schwarz criterion

15,18554

-147,3618Hannan-Quinn criter 15,06533

F-statistic

631,3943Durbin-Watson stat 1,042318

Prob(Fstatistic)

0,000000

Da vo kt qu c lng bng 2 cho thy gi

tr 2 = -0,00274. iu ny c ngha LK (lt khch)
c mi tng quan m (tng quan nghch) vi tng
trng kinh t (GDP). Tuy nhin, theo s liu thc t
bng 1 cho thy lt khch (LK) tng ln lm cho GDP
cng c xu hng tng ln. Cho nn, m hnh c kh
nng c khuyt tt a cng tuyn. V vy, tc gi thc
hin phn tch tng quan (correlation) cc bin s
c c kt qu bng 3 nh sau:
Bng 3. Phn tch tng quan (Correlation)
gia TOUR; LK v GDP
Correlation
GDP
TOUR
LK

GDP

TOUR

LK

1
0,99187
0,97989

0,99187
1
0,99390

0,97989
0,99390
1

Ngun: S liu tnh ton ca tc gi da vo Nin

gim thng k tnh Bnh nh
Kt qu tng quan gia cc bin s u ln hn
0,8. y l du hiu ca hin tng a cng tuyn rt
cao. Cho nn tc gi quyt nh b bin LK ra khi
m hnh (1). Do m hnh nghin cu c vit li:
GDP t = 0 + 1 TOURt + ut (2) v kt qu hi quy m
hnh (2) nh sau:

Phat trien

Kinh te - Xa hoi
a Nang

21

Min Trung - Ty Nguyn

Bng 4. Kt qu c c lng m hnh (2)

Bn cnh , tc gi c th thc hin kim nh t

tng quan i vi sai s theo phng php BreuschGodfrey (Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test).

Dependent Variable: GDP

Method: Least Squares
Sample: 1995 2014
Included observations: 20
Variable

Coefficient Std. Error

t-Statistic

TOUR

83,92047 2,536841

33,08070

0,0000

956,2371 191,3479

4,997374

0,0001

Prob.

R-squared

0,983818Mean dependent var 6358,030

Adjusted
R-squared

0,982919S.D. dependent var

3413,234

S.E. of
446,0932Akaike info criterion 15,13357
regression
Sum squared
3581984.Schwarz criterion
15,23315
resid
Log
-149,3357Hannan-Quinn criter. 15,15301
likelihood
F-statistic

1094,333Durbin-Watson stat

Prob(Fstatistic)

0,000000

0,502541

Da vo bng 4, gi tr R2 = 0,98 > gi tr DurbinWatson = 0,5. y l du hiu ca hi quy gi mo.

Cho nn, tc gi tin hnh phn tch tc ng trong
di hn mi lin h gia s gia tng doanh thu du
lch v tng trng kinh t Bnh nh bng cc kim
nh sau:
3.1. Kim nh tnh dng

Bng 5. Kim nh nghim n v (ADF)

t-Statistic
(GDP)

t-Statistic
(TOUR)

Augmented Dickey-Fuller
test statistic

1,767041

9,556871

1% level
5% level
10% level

-2,728252
-1,966270
-1,605026

-2,692358
-1,960171
-1,607051

Ngun: S liu tnh ton ca cc gi da vo Nin

gim thng k tnh Bnh nh

Phat trien

Gi thuyt ca kim nh:

Ho: Khng c tng quan bc nht
H1: Bc b gi thuyt Ho
Bng 6. Kim nh t tng quan (BreuschGodfrey Serial Correlation LM Test)
F-statistic
Obs*Rsquared

17,39844
10,11583

Prob. F(1,17)
Prob. ChiSquare(1)

0,0006
0,0015

Ngun: S liu tnh ton ca cc gi da vo Nin

gim thng k tnh Bnh nh
Da vo bng 6, gi tr Prob=0,0006 < 0,05. Nh
vy, kt qu kim nh cho thy, vi mc ngha
5% th m hnh (2) c khuyt tt tng quan bc
nht, iu ny chng t gi tr 0 = 956,2371 v 1 =
83,92047 trong kt qu c lng bng 4 khng
ng v cha phi l kt qu ti u nht. Tc gi tin
hnh khc phc khuyt tt t tng quan bc nht
bng phng php lp Corchan - Orcutt (s dng k
thut sai phn tng qut) v kt qu nh sau:
Bng 7. Kt qu c lng m hnh (2) sau khi
s dng phng php lp CorchanOrcutt
Dependent Variable: GDP
Method: Least Squares

kim tra tnh dng ca cc chui s liu, tc

gi thc hin kim nh nghim n v theo phng
php ADF (Augmented Dickey-Fuller). Vi cc chui
s liu thu thp c, kt qu kim nh ADF bng
5 ch r chui s liu GDP dng mc tin cy 90% v
chui s liu TOUR u dng mc tin cy 90%; 95%
v 100%.

22

3.2. Kim nh t tng quan

Kinh te - Xa hoi
a Nang

Sample (adjusted): 1996 2014

Included observations: 19 after adjustments
Convergence achieved after 58 iterations
Variable

Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic

Prob.

TOUR

41,90125 15,25174 2,747309

0,0143

104565,6 2035143. 0,051380

0,9597

AR(1)

0,997159 0,056362 17,69207

0,0000

R-squared

0,996886Mean dependent var 6566,942

Adjusted
R-squared

0,996497S.D. dependent var 3372,836

S.E. of
regression

199,6269

Sum squared
resid

637614,4Schwarz criterion

Akaike info
criterion

13,57472
13,72384

Min Trung - Ty Nguyn

Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
Inverted AR
Roots

Hannan-Quinn
13,59995
criter.
2561,181Durbin-Watson stat 1,675592
0,000000

-125,9598

1,00

3.3. Kim nh tnh n nh (Ramsey Reset)

T m hnh la chn, tc gi kim nh dng
hm ng, vi gi thuyt ca kim nh l:
Ho: Dng hm ng
H1: Bc b gi thuyt Ho.
Bng 8. Kim nh tnh n nh (Ramsey Reset)
F-statistic
Obs*Rsquared

2,667689
3,110058

Prob. F(1,15)
Prob. ChiSquare(1)

0,1232
0,0778

Ngun: S liu tnh ton ca tc gi da vo Nin

gim thng k tnh Bnh nh
Tr s Prob. F c gi tr 0,1232 > 0,05. Vi mc
ngha 5%, c th kt lun dng hm ca m hnh (2)
l dng hm ng.
4. Kt qu v tho lun
T cc bc nh gi, kim nh m hnh tt nht
c la chn phn nh mi quan h gia TOUR v
GDP ti tnh Bnh nh l m hnh (2) vi kt qu c
lng bng 7 v gi tr 0 = 104565,6 v 1 = 41,9 l
ti u nht c m t bi phng trnh nh sau:

cc bin trong m hnh c mi tng quan cao. Hn

na, gi tr R2 (R Square) bng 0,99 kh cao, iu ny
ni ln thch hp ca m hnh l 99% hay ni cch
khc l khi cc yu t khc khng i th TOUR gii
thch c 99% s bin thin ca GDP ti Bnh nh.
Phng trnh (*) cho thy, doanh thu du lch tc
ng tch cc n GDP theo xu hng c 1 n v
tng ln ca doanh thu du lch c th lm tng 41,9
n v GDP v tc ng ny c ngha v mt thng
k. T c th kt lun rng c mi quan h tch cc
gia pht trin ngnh du lch v tng trng kinh t
tnh Bnh nh.
Nh vy, kt qu kim tra m hnh kinh t lng
chng minh doanh thu du lch c tc ng tch
cc n tng trng kinh t. iu ny c th khng
nh rng, nu ngnh du lch ca Bnh nh pht huy
c nhng li th v pht trin ng hng th chc
chn s thc y tng trng kinh t ca tnh Bnh
nh.
Kt lun
Trn c s phn tch hi quy, tc gi kim tra,
o lng tc ng ca ngnh du lch n tng trng
kinh t tnh Bnh nh trong giai on 1995 - 2014.
Vic xc nh m hnh ti u l c s nh gi tc
ng ca ngnh du lch i vi tng trng. Qua ,
cho bit doanh thu du lch to ra c bao nhiu
n v GDP cho nn kinh t. l c s a ra
chnh sch pht trin ngnh du lch thc y tng
trng kinh t.

GDP = 104565,6 + 41,9 TOUR (*)

N.T.T.T.

Kt qu hi quy ca m hnh bng 7, cho thy gi

tr P-value ca h s nh hn 0,05 nn h s m hnh
c ngha thng k. Gi tr R iu chnh (Adjusted R
Square) c gi tr 0,996497 cho thy mi quan h gia

TI LIU THAM KHO

1. Nguyn Trng Hoi. 2009. D bo v phn tch d liu
trong kinh t v ti chnh. H Ni: Thng k.
2. Cng thng tin in t tnh Bnh nh. www.
binhdinh.gov.vn.
3. Cc thng k. Nin gim thng k Bnh nh 2001,
2010 v 2014.
4. S Vn ha, Th thao & Du lch Bnh nh. Bo co tnh
hnh hot ng du lch hng nm.

Phat trien

Kinh te - Xa hoi
a Nang

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