Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Jong-Wha Lee
Korea University
Based on Lee, J.W., Koreas Economic Growth and Catch-up: Implications for China,
working paper, 2015
Outline
I.
Introduction
II.
III.
I. Introduction
Mean
8.5
8.0
Max
Min
Forecast
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
Note: Data are per capita GDP at chained PPP-adjusted international dollar and are
expressed in a proportional scale .
Source: Penn World Table 8.1 (Feenstra, Inklaar,and Timmer 2013).
CHINA
KOREA
JAPAN
Note: The figure shows the period average of relative per capita income and its growth rates over the
corresponding 5 years. 60 indicates 19601964,, and 10 indicates 20102014.
Source: Authors estimates based on data from Penn World Table 8.1 (Feenstra, Inklaar,and Timmer,
2013) and the IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2015 for 20122014
Country
Korea
Japan
China
Year
Per Worker
Output
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
0.13
0.23
0.40
0.55
0.61
0.43
0.62
0.72
0.72
0.69
0.05
0.05
0.06
0.08
0.15
Physical
Capital
Per Worker
0.12
0.17
0.29
0.52
0.79
0.31
0.63
0.77
1.00
1.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.08
0.18
Human Capital
Per Worker
Total Factor
Productivity
0.59
0.70
0.83
0.90
0.98
0.74
0.78
0.85
0.90
0.94
0.35
0.43
0.48
0.57
0.60
0.24
0.37
0.53
0.68
0.64
0.63
0.81
0.86
0.79
0.72
0.24
0.20
0.18
0.23
0.37
The gap of per worker output between Korea and the U.S.
has rapidly decreased over the period of 1970-2000.
The swift catch-up process is for the most part attributed
to physical and human capital accumulation rather than
total factor productivity growth.
The pace of Koreas catch-up slowed after 2000. This is
attributed mainly to little gain in productivity catch-up
during 20002010.
The catching-up speed is expected to slow down as Korea
now faces a much smaller gap in physical and human
capital stock from their long-run potential levels and
technology level is also closer to the world frontier.
11
Coeff.
(S. E.)
-0.0167*** (0.00217)
Investment/GDP
0.0388**
(0.0169)
-0.024***
(0.0046)
-0.00307
(0.00190)
0.00022*
(0.00013)
1/Life expectancy
-2.551***
(0.677)
Trade openness
0.00531*
(0.00319)
Government consumption
0.00105
(0.0130)
0.0171***
(0.00599)
-0.0116
(0.00981)
Democracy index
0.0534***
(0.0186)
Democracy index^2
-0.053***
(0.017)
0.0798***
(0.0270)
73; 713
Rule-of-law index
Inflation rate
12
Difference in
actual Growth
predicted Growth
0.0395
0.0123
0.0387
0.0232
0.0294
0.0268
(100.0%)
Initial income
Investment rate
Fertility
Schooling
Life expectancy
0.0309
0.0025
-0.0117
-0.0038
-0.0054
0.0196
0.0049
0.0021
-0.0044
-0.0022
0.0112
0.0043
0.0126
-0.0020
0.0003
(41.5%)
(16.2%)
(47.0%)
(-7.3%)
(1.2%)
0.000003
-0.0086
-0.0010
0.0112
0.0009
0.000002
0.000003
-0.0076
-0.0002
0.0097
0.0016
-0.0003
0.000021
-0.0020
-0.0001
0.0031
0.0020
-0.0026
(0.1%)
(-7.4%)
(-0.3%)
(11.4%)
(7.3%)
(-9.6%)
Government consumption
Rule of law
Inflation rate
Democracy
Openness
Terms of trade
13
Services
Manufacturing
14
Japan
China
US
0.24
0.22
0.18
0.55
Manufacturing
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Services
0.48
0.94
0.64
0.64
0.25
0.60
0.56
0.38
0.61
1.00
1.06
0.83
0.83
1.55
1.79
1.25
0.47
0.84
0.31
0.48
0.74
0.95
0.83
0.82
1.99
1.14
1.82
2.44
3.64
6.41
2.70
2.90
Construction
0.59
0.72
0.50
0.48
0.58
0.91
0.58
0.68
Industry
Others
Aggregate Economy
Source: Authors estimates from WORLD KLEMS Database (US), ASIA KLEMS Database (Korea, Japan),
and CIP 3.0 Database (China).
15
Manufacturing
Services
Others
12
9.94
10
8
7.02
7.58
5.54
5.47
5.58
4.73
4
2.45
2
0
1.22
19811990
2.09
19902000
1.13
1.2
20002010
16
10
9.4
9
8
7
5.5
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1980-2007
Capital
Labor
2011-2030
Education
Notes: The figures show the contribution to average GDP growth rate by each growth component. The figures for 2011-2030 are the projections
based on cross-country panel regressions for each growth component.
Source: Lee, J. and K. Hong, Economic Growth in Asia: Determinants and Prospects, Japan and the World Economy, March 2012
20
Population aging
Manufacturing
Services
Others
25
19.51
20
14.54
15
10.64
10
5.78
4.14
2.73
2.34
0
-0.7 -1.31
-5
19811990
-1.33
4.78
-0.19
19902000
20002010
22
(% in working-age population)
45
(percent)
China
Working-age population(LHS)
40
India
35
Japan
30
Korea, Rep.
U.S.
25
20
15
10
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
23
Leverage ratios
Liabilities
(In percent of GDP)
Return on assets
(In percent)
(In percent)
Source: IMF, Peoples Republic Of China 2015 Article IV ConsultationStaff Report; Press Release; and Statement By The Executive Director For The
Peoples Republic Of China, August 2015
24
Note: The democracy index is the Polity indicator, which is constructed as democracy less autocracy (converted from a -10 to +10
scale to a 0-1 scale, with 1 representing the highest level of democracy).
Source: Polity IV Project (www.systemicpeace.org)
25
Thank You
Jong-Wha Lee
E-mail: jongwha@korea.ac.kr
Tel.: +82-2-3290-1600