Flood damage assessment

Laboratory of emergency planning, CERM, Lecco 2014/2015

Daniela Molinari

Why does damage assessment is important for

emergency planning?

Daniela Molinari

Why does damage assessment is important for

emergency planning?

WE PLAN TO REDUCE LOSSES

We need to asses expected losses and potential damage reduction to

properly plan
Daniela Molinari

Damage, losses and disutilities

RISK = f (H, E, V)

There is no a common agreement among terms like damages, losses, impacts

Injury, harm; esp. physical injury to a thing

The sum of money claimed or adjudged to be paid in compensation for loss
or injury sustained

The interest lies in all the harmful effects of a flood on a community:

impacts on humans
Impacts on humans health and belongings
impacts on public infrastructures and costs to face the emergency
Impacts cultural heritage and ecological systems
impacts on industrial production and the economy
Daniela Molinari

Kinds of damages

DIRECT losses resulting from direct contact with the hazard (e.g. flood
damage to building)
INDIRECT losses are those resulting from the event but not from its
direct impact (e.g. business losses due to activity disruption). Occur in
space or time outside the flood event.

TANGIBLE losses concern things with a monetary value (e.g. buildings,

livestock, etc.)
INTANGIBLE losses regard things that cannot be bought and sold (such
as lives, heritage and environmental items, memorabilia, etc.)

Daniela Molinari

Kinds of damages

Daniela Molinari

Kinds of damages: exposed sector

Sector
Residential

Commercial

Farming

People
Public

Infrastructure
Environment

Cultural
heritage

Event costs

Structure + contents (direct)

Examples
Carpeting, painting, furniture

Indirect

Clean up, temporary housing

Intangible

Loss of memorabilia

Structure + contents (direct)

Carpeting, painting, stock, machinery

Indirect

Loss of income, additional cost, sandbags, pumps

Intangible

Loss of memorabilia

Physical damage (direct)

Livestock, crops, machinery

Indirect

Loss of income, repair fences, remove debris

Intangible

Loss of memorabilia

Physical (direct)

Death, injuries

Intangible
Structure (direct)

Stress, anxiety
Carpeting, painting

Contents (direct)

Furniture

Service interruption (indirect)

Health, school services

Intangible

Loss of "sense of community"

Physical (direct)

Lines, bridges, water tanks, plants

Service interruption (indirect)

Ecological (direct)

Electricity, water supply, traffic

Ecosystems

Service interruption (indirect)

Tourism, recreational activities

Intangible

Loss of "sense of community"

Physical (direct)

Museums, churches, historical buildings

Service interruption (indirect)

Tourism, recreational activities

Intangible

Loss of "sense of community"

Warning + emergency (indirect)

Evacuation, warning, shelters, sand bags

Intangible

Loss of trust

Types of damage

Daniela Molinari

Scales of damage assessment

SPATIAL SCALE: the spatial domain of the assessment

MICRO-SCALE the assessment is based on single elements at risk. For
instance, building infrastructure object, etc.
MESO-SCALE the assessment is based on spatial aggregations. Typical
aggregation units are land use units, e.g. residential areas, or administrative
units, zip code areas, etc.
MACRO-SCALE large-scale spatial units are the basis for damage
estimation. Typically, administrative units are used, e.g. municipalities,
regions, countries, etc.
TEMPORAL SCALE: the time window the assessment considers following the
occurrence of the event
SHORT-SCALE the assessment is based on damages occurring during
the event of its aftermath
LONG-SCALE the assessment is based on damages occurring also
several months after the occurrence of the event

Daniela Molinari

Scales of damage assessment

SPATIAL SCALE: the spatial domain of the assessment

MICRO-SCALE the assessment is based on single elements at risk. For
instance, building infrastructure object, etc.
MESO-SCALE the assessment is based on spatial aggregations. Typical
aggregation units are land use units, e.g. residential areas, or administrative
units, zip code areas, etc.
MACRO-SCALE large-scale spatial units are the basis for damage
estimation. Typically, administrative units are used, e.g. municipalities,
regions, countries, etc.
TEMPORAL SCALE: the time window the assessment considers following the
occurrence of the event
SHORT-SCALE the assessment is based on damages occurring during
the event of its aftermath
LONG-SCALE the assessment is based on damages occurring also
several months after the occurrence of the event

Closely linked to the scales is the context of the damage assessment (purpose,
required reliability, available data, available resources, etc.)

Daniela Molinari

Scales of damage assessment:

emergency planning

10

SPATIAL SCALE: the spatial domain of the assessment

MICRO-SCALE the assessment is based on single elements at risk. For
instance, building infrastructure object, etc.
MESO-SCALE the assessment is based on spatial aggregations. Typical
aggregation units are land use units, e.g. residential areas, or administrative
units, zip code areas, etc.
MACRO-SCALE large-scale spatial units are the basis for damage
estimation. Typically, administrative units are used, e.g. municipalities,
regions, countries, etc.
TEMPORAL SCALE: the time window the assessment considers following the
occurrence of the event
SHORT-SCALE the assessment is based on damages occurring during
the event of its aftermath
LONG-SCALE the assessment is based on damages occurring also
several months after the occurrence of the event

Closely linked to the scales is the context of the damage assessment (purpose,
required reliability, available data, available resources, etc.)

Daniela Molinari

Damage significance

11

SI f (s, o / T , L, C )
significance (SI), it can be equal to 1 meaning damage is significant or 0
meaning damage is not significant
stakeholder (s), i.e. peoples role/responsibility; for example,
stakeholders can be private or public. Among private, citizens, insurers
and service providers can be identified. Public stakeholders include
instead public bodies like civil protection, local authorities, etc.
objective (o), i.e. the objective of the assessment; damage assessments
can be carried out for a variety of reasons: ex post to determine event's
impact, ex ante to estimate potential damage in order to choose among
different mitigation strategies, etc. We found that the objective is
univocally linked to T
temporal scale (T), the time scale of the assessment, i.e. the time window
the assessment considers after events occurrence;

spatial scale (L), i.e. the spatial domain of the assessment; damage
assessments can be carried out from the very local scale (e.g. single
building) to the very large scale (e.g. country level);
location (C), i.e. interviewees country. Roles and responsibilities vary
from country to country, according to their juridical apparatus.
Daniela Molinari

12

Damage significance

Subjective stakeholder spatial scale

Context
(s)
(L)
A
B
C
D
E
F
G

regional
regional
regional
local/mayor
local/mayor
local/mayor
local

region/state
affected area
municipality
municipality
municipality
municipality
province

objective, temporal scale

(o/T)
Ex-post, months to years
emergency, aftermath
planning, several years
Ex-post, months to years
emergency, aftermath
planning, several years
Ex-post, months to years

Daniela Molinari

Number of interviewees
Italy
Australia
Total
3
3
0
1
1
1
1

1
1
1
0
0
1
0

4
4
1
1
1
2
1

13

Damage significance

Sector
Residential

Type of damage

Structure + contents
Indirect
Intangible
Commercial
Structure + contents
Indirect
Intangible
Farming
Physical damage
Indirect
Intangible
People
Physical
Intangible
Public
Structure
Contents
Service interruption
Intangible
Infrastructures Physical
Service interruption
Environment
Ecological
Service interruption
Intangible
Cultural
Physical
heritage
Service interruption
Intangible
Local authorities Warning + emergency
Intangible

context
A
IT AU
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
0
1
1
0
1
0
0
1
1
0
0

Significance (SI)
context context context context
B
C
D
E
IT AU IT AU IT AU IT AU
1
1 n.s. 1
1 n.s. 1 n.s.
0
0 n.s. 1
1 n.s. 0 n.s.
0
0 n.s. 1
1 n.s. 1 n.s.
0
0 n.s. 1
0 n.s. 1 n.s.
0
0 n.s. 1
1 n.s. 0 n.s.
0
0 n.s. 1
0 n.s. 1 n.s.
0
0 n.s. 1
1 n.s. 1 n.s.
0
0 n.s. 1
1 n.s. 0 n.s.
0
0 n.s. 1
0 n.s. 1 n.s.
1
1 n.s. 1
1 n.s. 1 n.s.
0
0 n.s. 1
0 n.s. 1 n.s.
1
1 n.s. 1
1 n.s. 1 n.s.
0
0 n.s. 1
1 n.s. 0 n.s.
1
0 n.s. 1
1 n.s. 0 n.s.
0
0 n.s. 1
0 n.s. 1 n.s.
1
0 n.s. 1
1 n.s. 1 n.s.
1
1 n.s. 1
1 n.s. 1 n.s.
0
0 n.s. 1
1 n.s. 0 n.s.
0
0 n.s. 1
1 n.s. 0 n.s.
0
0 n.s. 1
0 n.s. 0 n.s.
1
0 n.s. 1
1 n.s. 0 n.s.
0
0 n.s. 1
1 n.s. 0 n.s.
0
0 n.s. 1
0 n.s. 0 n.s.
0
0 n.s. 0
1 n.s. 1 n.s.
1
0 n.s. 1
0 n.s. 0 n.s.

Daniela Molinari

context
F
IT AU
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
1
1
1
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0

context
G
IT AU
1 n.s.
1 n.s.
0 n.s.
1 n.s.
1 n.s.
0 n.s.
1 n.s.
1 n.s.
0 n.s.
1 n.s.
0 n.s.
1 n.s.
1 n.s.
1 n.s.
1 n.s.
1 n.s.
1 n.s.
1 n.s.
0 n.s.
0 n.s.
1 n.s.
1 n.s.
0 n.s.
1 n.s.
0 n.s.

Damage significance

Daniela Molinari

14

Damage significance: emergency planning

Sector
Residential

Type of damage

Structure + contents
Indirect
Intangible
Commercial
Structure + contents
Indirect
Intangible
Farming
Physical damage
Indirect
Intangible
People
Physical
Intangible
Public
Structure
Contents
Service interruption
Intangible
Infrastructures Physical
Service interruption
Environment
Ecological
Service interruption
Intangible
Cultural
Physical
heritage
Service interruption
Intangible
Local authorities Warning + emergency
Intangible

context
A
IT AU
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
0
1
1
0
1
0
0
1
1
0
0

context
B
IT AU
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0

Significance (SI)
context context context
C
D
E
IT AU IT AU IT AU
n.s. 1
1 n.s. 1 n.s.
n.s. 1
1 n.s. 0 n.s.
n.s. 1
1 n.s. 1 n.s.
n.s. 1
0 n.s. 1 n.s.
n.s. 1
1 n.s. 0 n.s.
n.s. 1
0 n.s. 1 n.s.
n.s. 1
1 n.s. 1 n.s.
n.s. 1
1 n.s. 0 n.s.
n.s. 1
0 n.s. 1 n.s.
n.s. 1
1 n.s. 1 n.s.
n.s. 1
0 n.s. 1 n.s.
n.s. 1
1 n.s. 1 n.s.
n.s. 1
1 n.s. 0 n.s.
n.s. 1
1 n.s. 0 n.s.
n.s. 1
0 n.s. 1 n.s.
n.s. 1
1 n.s. 1 n.s.
n.s. 1
1 n.s. 1 n.s.
n.s. 1
1 n.s. 0 n.s.
n.s. 1
1 n.s. 0 n.s.
n.s. 1
0 n.s. 0 n.s.
n.s. 1
1 n.s. 0 n.s.
n.s. 1
1 n.s. 0 n.s.
n.s. 1
0 n.s. 0 n.s.
n.s. 0
1 n.s. 1 n.s.
n.s. 1
0 n.s. 0 n.s.

Daniela Molinari

15

context context
F
G
IT AU IT AU
1
1
1 n.s.
0
1
1 n.s.
1
1
0 n.s.
1
1
1 n.s.
1
0
1 n.s.
1
1
0 n.s.
1
1
1 n.s.
1
1
1 n.s.
1
1
0 n.s.
1
1
1 n.s.
1
1
0 n.s.
1
0
1 n.s.
1
0
1 n.s.
1
0
1 n.s.
1
1
1 n.s.
1
1
1 n.s.
1
1
1 n.s.
1
0
1 n.s.
0
0
0 n.s.
1
1
0 n.s.
Direct
to buildings
1
0
1 damage
n.s.
0 Direct
0
1 damage
n.s.
to people
1
1
0 n.s.
indirect damage to
0 Direct
0
1 and
n.s.
and publig goods
0 infrastructures
0
0 n.s.

Current state of the art: a general overview

16

(i) direct damages are usually present in any damage assessment:

- damage to residential and commercial buildings

(i) indirect losses are often roughly estimated

(ii) intangibles are frequently ignored or simply mentioned, without any
attempt of evaluation.

Daniela Molinari

Current state of the art: a general overview

17

(i) direct damages are usually present in any damage assessment:

- damage to residential and commercial buildings

(i) indirect losses are often roughly estimated

(ii) intangibles are frequently ignored or simply mentioned, without any
attempt of evaluation.

Daniela Molinari

Current state of the art: a general overview

18

(i) direct damages are usually present in any damage assessment:

- damage to residential and commercial buildings

(i) indirect losses are often roughly estimated

(ii) intangibles are frequently ignored or simply mentioned, without any
attempt of evaluation.

2%
11%

19%

First aid
2%

Cultural Heritage
Infrastructure
Industry

42%

23%

Agricolture
Residential

Umbria Flood (November 2012)

Daniela Molinari

Current state of the art:

direct, tangible damages

19

Depth-damage curves are the

standard tool to estimate
direct damage to buildings

R=f(H, E,V)

DAMAGE TO BUILDING STRUCTURE

(Source: USACE)
1.4
1.2

damage (%)

0.8
0.6
one storey - basement

0.4

more storeys - basement

one storey - no basement

0.2

more storeys - no basement

0
0

water depth (m)

Daniela
Molinari
Molinari
D.

Current state of the art:

direct, tangible damages

20

Depth-damage curves are the

standard tool to estimate
direct damage to buildings

R=f(H, E,V)

DAMAGE TO BUILDING STRUCTURE

(Source: USACE)
1.4
1.2

damage (%)

0.8
0.6
one storey - basement

0.4

more storeys - basement

one storey - no basement

0.2

more storeys - no basement

0
0

water depth (m)

Daniela
Molinari
Molinari
D.

Current state of the art:

direct, tangible damages

21

Depth-damage curves are the

standard tool to estimate
direct damage to buildings

R=f(H, E,V)

DAMAGE TO BUILDING STRUCTURE

(Source: USACE)
1.4
1.2

damage (%)

0.8
0.6
one storey - basement

0.4

more storeys - basement

one storey - no basement

0.2

more storeys - no basement

0
0

water depth (m)

Daniela
Molinari
Molinari
D.

Current state of the art:

direct, tangible damages

22

Depth-damage curves are the

standard tool to estimate
direct damage to buildings

R=f(H, E,V)

DAMAGE TO BUILDING STRUCTURE

(Source: USACE)
1.4
1.2

damage (%)

0.8
0.6
one storey - basement

0.4

more storeys - basement

one storey - no basement

0.2

more storeys - no basement

0
0

water depth (m)

Daniela
Molinari
Molinari
D.

Current state of the art:

direct, tangible damages

23

Depth-damage curves are the

standard tool to estimate
direct damage to buildings

R=f(H, E,V)

DAMAGE TO BUILDING STRUCTURE

(Source: USACE)
1.4
1.2

damage (%)

0.8
0.6
one storey - basement

0.4

more storeys - basement

one storey - no basement

0.2

more storeys - no basement

0
0

water depth (m)

Daniela
Molinari
Molinari
D.

Current state of the art:

direct, tangible damages

24

Empirical approach:
Curves definition

using data collected after flood events

Synthetic approach:

using data derived via what if questions

Daniela Molinari

Current state of the art:

direct, tangible damages

25

Relative functions

Absolute functions

the percentage of property value approach

is implemented that is damage is described
as a share of the total unit value, per every
inundation depth.

supply directly the value of damage per every

inundation depth

STANDARD METHOD
damage to buildings (content + structure)

MCM METHOD
damage to residential sector

1,200

1000,00
900,00

1,000

800,00
700,00

0,600

low rise
single and farm

0,400

intermediate
0,200

high rise

damage (/m2)

damage (-)

0,800

600,00
500,00
400,00
300,00

200,00
100,00

0,000
0

10

12

14

depth (m)

0,00
0,00

0,50

1,00

1,50

2,00

depth (m)

Daniela Molinari

2,50

3,00

3,50

Current state of the art:

direct, tangible damages

26

averaging methods: an average loss per flooded unit is supplied

e.g. RAM - Australia

Data are not enough/of good

quality to infer damage
mechanisms

Daniela Molinari

Current state of the art:

direct, tangible damages
Depth-damage curves are
implemented also at the
meso-scale

Daniela Molinari

27

Current state of the art: indirect, tangible losses

28

Indirect damages includes a variety of damages:

- business interruption
- service interruption

Short term

- altered migration flows

- relocation of industries

Long term

- depressed housing values

Compared to direct effects, indirect damages are much more
difficult to estimate. Indirect damage are induced by the direct
damage and trasmitted through the physical or economic system
The magnitude of indirect damage is determined by the
boundaries in space and time of the damage assessment.

Daniela Molinari

Current state of the art: indirect, tangible losses

percentages of direct damages

surrogate values (e.g. the cost of renting an equivalent home)

ad-hoc methods grounded on economics (e.g. loss of valueadded, opportunity cost, CGE, input-outputetc.) as well as other
scientific disciplines (e.g. the origin-destination matrix for the
evaluation of road disruption costs)

Daniela Molinari

29

Current state of the art: indirect, tangible losses

30

Indirect damages includes a variety of damages:

- business interruption
- service interruption

Short term

- altered migration flows

- relocation of industries
- depressed housing values

Long term

FUNCTIONAL AND
SYSTEMIC
VULNERABILITY
ANALYSIS Of
INFRASTRUCTURE AND
CRITICAL SERVICES

Compared to direct effects, indirect damages are much more

difficult to estimate. Indirect damage are induced by the direct
damage and trasmitted through the physical or economic system
The magnitude of indirect damage is determined by the
boundaries in space and time of the damage assessment.

Daniela Molinari

A case of functional vulnerability in depth:

transport system
FUNCTION: accessibility

Only one link with the right side of the river the area con be isolated

Daniela Molinari

A case of functional vulnerability in depth:

transport system
FUNCTION: usability

CRITERIO di FRUIBILITA' STRADALE

1,00

stabilit_persone
0,90

pericolosit edifici
0,80

stabilit_veicoli

altezza [m]

0,70
0,60
0,50
0,40
0,30
0,20
0,10
0,00
0

velocit [m/s]

Stability of humans and vehicles is compromised

problems from emergency activities an regular users

Daniela Molinari

A case of systemic vulnerability in depth:

transport system
SYTEMIC LINKS within & among transport network and other items/systems CAN AFFECT THE
FUNCTIONALITY OF THE NETWORK ITSELF (and vice versa)

SYSTEMIC LINKS (examples):

- Bridges: flooded bridges could cut
transport connections
- Other lifelines: dependence on other
lifelines (e.g. electric) damaged by flood
- Landslides: induced hazards could damage
the transport system
- Road transport configuration (redundancy):
flood could affect areas where essential
links are displaced
- Main services displacement: emergency
services could be isolated because of flood

Daniela Molinari

Current state of the art: intangibles

34

Intangible damages includes a variety of damages:

- damage to people
- damage to environment

Direct or Indirect

- damage to cultural heritage

Intangible costs do not necessarily have to be expressed in monetary

terms in order to be included in decision support frameworks (e.g. In
emergency plans or in Multicriteria Analysis frameworks they can be
included as non-monetary)
Ad hoc/sector specific methods for (non monetary) damage estimation

Daniela Molinari

Current state of the art: intangibles

35

MONETARY ESTIMATION
Main difficulties in their assessment

ethical objections

How can we prize a life or an historical monument?

How can we value a worsening in the landscape?

availability of data

the few existing data usually refer only to the

number of injured (or dead) people with the
problem of gaining information for the
modelling of other types of intangibles

Common approach to monetary evaluation:

use and non-use values that individuals derive from environmental or health
goods and services.
Use values relate to the direct, indirect or even optional use
non-use values relate to the value individuals derive from just knowing that a
certain environmental good exists or that it is being preserved for future
generations

Daniela Molinari

Dealing with damage variability

Damage depends on both hazard and vulnerability factors

Daniela Molinari

36

Dealing with damage variability: hazard factors

the depth of flooding,
the velocity of flooding,
the sediment and the contaminant load,
the duration,
the time of the year when the event occurs

e.g. damage to buildings

METHOD
USACE
Vulnerability factors

1) Water depth

Daniela Molinari

MCM
1) Water depth
2) Duration

37

Dealing with damage variability: vulnerability

factors

38

VARIABILITY IS HIGHER and MULTIFACET and depends on:

The exposed element
The spatial context
e.g. damage to buildings

METHOD
USACE
Vulnerability factors

1) Number of floors:
one story
more stories
split levels
2) Presence of basement
yes
no

Daniela Molinari

MCM
1) Kinds
detached
semi-detached
terrace
bungalow
flat
2) Age
1919-1944
1945-1964
1965-1974
1975 -1985
post 1985
3) Social class of inhabitants
4 classes

Dealing with damage variability: vulnerability

factors

39

A set of proposed indicators..

INDICATOR

DESCRIPTION

a) Location

Hazard level depends on building location

b) Type of use

Contents value (and, consequently, damage) depends on buildings use (e.g. residential,
commercial, public service, etc.)

c) Level of maintenance

Well maintained buildings better face the impacts of floods than crumbling

d) Age

Age is usually linked to the level of maintenance

e) Materials

Some materials (like concrete and masonry) are more resistant to the flood impacts than
others (e.g. timber, plasterboard, etc.)

f) Number of storeys

The presence of more than one storey allows people to move contents to upper floors

g) Presence of basement

Basements can be flooded also in case of minor events (small water depth)

h) Number of openings
at street level

Openings at street level make water to easily enter the building

i) Height from street level

If ground floor is higher than street level water is hindered to enter the building

l) Presence of vulnerable
equipments

If vulnerable equipments are present in more flood prone floors than damage can be higher

Daniela Molinari

Dealing with damage variability: vulnerability

factors

40

A set of proposed indicators..

INDICATOR

DESCRIPTION

a) Location

Hazard level depends on building location

b) Type of use

Contents value (and, consequently, damage) depends on buildings use (e.g. residential,
commercial, public service, etc.)

c) Level of maintenance

Well maintained buildings better face the impacts of floods than crumbling

d) Age

Age is usually linked to the level of maintenance

e) Materials

Some materials (like concrete and masonry) are more resistant to the flood impacts than
others (e.g. timber, plasterboard, etc.)

f) Number of storeys

The presence of more than one storey allows people to move contents to upper floors

g) Presence of basement

Basements can be flooded also in case of minor events (small water depth)

h) Number of openings
at street level

Openings at street level make water to easily enter the building

i) Height from street level

If ground floor is higher than street level water is hindered to enter the building

l) Presence of vulnerable
equipments

If vulnerable equipments are present in more flood prone floors than damage can be higher

Daniela Molinari

Dealing with damage variability

Damage depends on both hazard and vulnerability factors

assessment procedures have historically focused on a

small number of explanatory variables
(i.e. the depth of flooding and few vulnerability features)

flood damage assessments are currently associated with

large uncertainties just because these few variables are not
able to describe the variability of damage data

Daniela Molinari

41

Dealing with damage variability

Damage depends on both hazard and vulnerability factors

assessment procedures have historically focused on a

small number of explanatory variables
(i.e. the depth of flooding and few vulnerability features)

flood damage assessments are currently associated with

large uncertainties just because these few variables are not
able to describe the variability of damage data

Daniela Molinari

42

Other challenges in damage assessment:

the economic rationale
Financial approach

Economic approach

Financial evaluations look at

damage from a perspective of a
single person or an enterprise,
neglecting public affairs and
focussing on the impact of the
disaster on the firm/person
profit rather than the impact on
the whole economy

43

Significance
of types of
damage
changes

Economic evaluations have a

broader perspective and
want to assess the impact on
national or regional welfare

THE CHOICE ACTUALLY DEPENDS ON THE

STAKEHOLDER THE ANALYSIS IS PERFORMED FOR

Daniela Molinari

Other challenges in damage assessment:

the economic value

44

1) CURRENT PRICE vs. FUTURE INCOME

From an economic point of view the value of a good is the present value of
the income ow it generates over the rest of its life span. Therefore, adding
stock and ow values in a ood damage evaluation can lead to double
counting
problem of double counting
2) REPLACEMENTS COST vs. DEPRECIATED VALUE

Depreciated values of durable consumer goods reect the value of a good

at the time when the ood damage actually occurs, whereas replacement
values usually involve some form of improvement. Using replacement
values overestimates the damage.
problem of over-estimation

Daniela Molinari

Other challenges in damage assessment:

models transfer
Existing damage functions are site
specific, strictly valid for the area where
they have been derived

45

STANDARD METHOD
1.2

Damage [-]

1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4

0.2
0.0

Models transfer in space, time or across

processes must be justified by model
validation

10

Water depth [m]

low rise

intermediate

high rise

umbria_data

1) RELATIVE DAMAGE FUNCTIONS vs. ABSOLUTE DAMAGE FUNCTION

economic value independence

2) FEW EXPLANATORY VARIABLES
context independence

Daniela Molinari

12

14

Reviews on damage assessment

46

Merz, B., Kreibich, H., Thieken, A., Schwarze, R.: Assessment of economic flood
damage, Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci, 10, 1697-1724, 2010

Meyer, V., Becker, N., Markantonis, V., Schwarze, R., van den Bergh, J. C. J. M.,
Bouwer, L. M., Bubeck, P., Ciavola, P., Genovese, E., Green, C., Hallegatte, S.,
Kreibich, H., Lequeux, Q., Logar, I., Papyrakis, E., Pfurtscheller, C., Poussin, J.,
Przyluski, V., Thieken, A. H. and Viavattene, C.: Review article: Assessing the
costs of natural hazards state of the art and knowledge gaps, Nat. Hazards
Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1351-1373, 2013.

Daniela Molinari

47

Kinds of damages

DIRECT losses resulting from direct contact with the hazard (e.g. flood
damage to building)
INDIRECT losses are those resulting from the event but not from its
direct impact (e.g. business losses due to activity disruption). Occur in
space or time outside the flood event.

TANGIBLE losses concern things with a monetary value (e.g. buildings,

livestock, etc.)
INTANGIBLE losses regard things that cannot be bought and sold (such
as lives, heritage and environmental items, memorabilia, etc.)

POTENTIAL losses in case no mitigation measures have been

implemented
ACTUAL losses in presence of a successful mitigation measure

Daniela Molinari

How actual damages can be evaluated?

48

the case of EWSs/emergency preparedness

WARNING change in the depth- damage curves

Mitigation Action

Description

Effect on potential damage

Hazard mitigation (HM)

reduction of water depth

damage reduction from 1 to 2

Vulnerability and Exposure

mitigation (VEM)

Reduction of potentila
damage (i.e. new curve)

damage reduction from 1 to 3

Daniela Molinari

How actual damages can be evaluated?

49

the case of EWSs/emergency preparedness

Effect of HM hydraulic analysis

Effect of VEM fixed percentage reduction in averaging potential damage

Daniela Molinari

How actual damages can be evaluated?

50

the case of EWSs/emergency preparedness

Effect of HM hydraulic analysis

Effect of VEM fixed percentage reduction in averaging potential damage
ACTUAL DAMAGES MOSTLY DEPEND ON HOW PEOPLE RESPOND TO A WARNING
Aspects (or explanatory variables) that have been recognized as crucial in shaping
people response:
disaster characteristics (e.g. riverine or flash flood, presence of environmental
cues and/or indicators, etc.)
situational context such as the time of the day or the day of the week, lead time,
etc.
local context including socio-political culture, preparedness, disaster education,
previous experience, community involvement, etc.

community context including people age, gender, length of residency, ethnicity,

income, education, personality, family context, etc.
warning characteristics including timing, warning source (which involves
credibility), mode of communication and warning message (which involves
coverage), etc.
AVAILABLE METHODS TRY TO DESCRIBE ACTUAL
DAMAGES BY MEANS OF THESE EXPLANATORY
VARIABLES
Daniela Molinari

Actual damages estimation: current approach

51

ACTUAL/POTENTIAL DAMAGES RATIO

Actual damages as a function of warning time (Days curve)

Actual damages as a function of warning time and flood depth (Chatterton and Farrell)

Daniela
Daniela Molinari
Molinari

Actual damages estimation: current approach

52

ACTUAL/POTENTIAL DAMAGES RATIO

Actual damages as a function of warning time and experience (Handmer and Smith, RAM and
BTE)

Actual damages as a function of

warning time, experience and flood depth
(Handmer and Smith)

Daniela
Daniela Molinari
Molinari

How actual damages can be evaluated?

Warning costs

53

Few data and no methods exist instead to evaluate warning costs (i.e.
costs of forecasting, warning dissemination, first aid, etc.) for which adhoc analyses are thus required

Daniela Molinari