Background Briefing:

Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123

South China Sea: Tillerson Call

to Arms
Carlyle A. Thayer
January 12, 2017

[client name deleted]

Rex Tillerson stated before the Senate Armed Services Committee confirmation
hearing, Were going to have to send China a clear signal that, first, the island-building
stops and, second, your access to those islands also is not going to be allowed.
We request your assessment of the following:

Do you think it is feasible for the U.S. to try to prevent China from accessing
the islands, and if so, how do you think China would respond?
And what other options does the U.S. have in terms of taking tougher action
in the South China Sea?

ANSWER: Tillerson is partly echoing a Trump tweet a while back and taking things a
step further. This should provoke a counter barrage from Chinese media threatening
all sorts of push back.
Under international law two of the Chinese-occupied features that host 3 kilometre
long runways are low-tide elevations and, according to the Arbitral Tribunal that heard
the Philippines claim against China, "are not subject to appropriation. In other
words, they belong to the Philippines. If "possession is nine tenths of the law" China
is an immoveable position. The U.S. will find no support from the Philippines for its
actions; condemnation is more likely.
Tillersons proposal would provoke a serious confrontation that could quickly develop
into armed conflict. China is poised to emplace anti air and surface to surface missiles
on the features it occupies. It can put 25 jet fighters on each of three airfields it has
built if it wishes. The U.S. Navy could see itself confronting fishing boats, maritime
militia, Coast Guard and Chinese navy ships.
For the U.S. to do what Tillerson says would be a major operation on a par with the
Cuban missile crisis and the naval quarantine that President John Kennedy imposed.
The one option the U.S. has is to send task forces through the Spratly islands on a
regular basis, and sail close to Chinese-occupied rocks. China hasn't declared base
lines or any 12 nautical mile territorial sea in the Spratlys. Up to now the U.S. has
shown inordinate respect for a fictional maritime zone the 12 nautical miles
territorial sea that China hasnt declared. In China's eyes the waters around the

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Spratly are Chinese waters and the entire area is a "military alert (or security) zone."
U.S. actions should be focused of pressuring China to bring its claims into line with
international law and comply with the award by the Arbitral Tribunal.
It is time for some tough U.S. action but at the moment Xi Jinping seems to be all
"sweetness and light" in trying to arrange a meeting with Donald Trump at the Davos
Summit.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, South China Sea: Tillerson Call to Arms, Thayer
Consultancy Background Brief, January 12, 2017. All background briefs are posted on
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.