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Background Briefing:
United States Policy Towards
East Asia Under Trump
Carlyle A. Thayer
January 12, 2017

[client name deleted]

Q1. President-elect Donald Trump has announced his top priority actions during his
first 100 days office. Which issues do you pay attention to the most?
ANSWER: Two of Trump's priorities have attracted my attention. The first is Trump's
policies to reduce taxes and spend on infrastructure to create more jobs in the United
States in order to boost the economy. Second, Trump will devote considerable
resources to defeating the Islamic State throughout the Middle East.
Regarding the first priority, there is a danger that Trumps' policy will stoke inflation
and cause the U.S. dollar to rise in value. This will make it more difficult for the United
States to export goods. Allied to this, is the danger to creating friction with China if
Trump tries to impose higher tariffs on Chinese goods.
Q2. Trump states clearly that he is going to withdraw the U.S. from the TPP. What do
you think about the prospect of "another kind of TPP"?
ANSWER: Trump is being lobbied by Japan and Australia to renegotiate the TPP. If
Trump does give notice of a U.S. withdrawal this will not take effect until January 2018.
Trump has stepped back from many of his campaign pledges or modified his policies
considerably. It is up to new Cabinet members with responsibility in this area to
provide alternate paths to revising areas of the TPP that Trump find objectionable.
Pulling out of the TPP is more symbolic than actual since it has not come into effect.
The bottom line is that Trump will have to see that the failure of U.S. to promote trade
liberalisation in the Asia-Pacific will only strengthen China's influence.
Q3. How will Trump evaluate the importance of continents in his foreign policy? Will
Asia (and especially South China Sea dispute) still have much priority in comparison to
Middle East or Europe?
ANSWER: Clearly the Middle East will have top priority. Trump plus his National
Security Adviser Michael Flynn and his Secretary of Defense James Mattis will all try
to defeat Islamic State and seek to enlist Russian cooperation in this effort. Relations
with China come next in priority. Southeast Asia is not a top priority for the Trump
Administration at this moment in time. We will have to wait and see who the new
Secretary of State will appoint as his deputies and who Donald Trump will appoint as
ambassadors to ASEAN and its ten members.

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Q4. During the very last days of his term in office, Secretary of State John Kerry will
visit to Vietnam. What do you conclude from this?
ANSWER: Secretary Kerry is visiting Vietnam because it is one of the success stories of
Obama's policy of rebalancing. The two sides reached an agreement on
comprehensive partnership, the Secretary General of the Vietnam Communist Party
was received in The White House, and President Obama made a visit to Hanoi. Because
Southeast Asia in general does not have top priority it is likely that there will be
continuity in US policy towards Vietnam rather than abrupt change in the short term.
Secretary Kerry's visit will highlight the fundamentals of the comprehensive
partnership - trade, investment, education, science and technology, defence and
security cooperation etc. These fundamentals will not suddenly change. The key here
is to get Trump to agree to attend the APEC summit in Hanoi and to make an official
visit at the same time.
5. What do you think about the triangle of power (1) US - China, (2) US - Russia and (3)
Russia - China under the Trump presidency?
ANSWER: It is clear that Trump will try to improve relations with Russia both to deal
with the threat of Islamic international terrorism and as leverage in U.S. relations with
China. It is possible that Trump will concede a sphere of Russian interest in Syria and
eastern Europe in exchange for cooperation on global issues. Russia needs to have the
U.S. embargo lifted so its economy can improve. It is evident that Russia-China
collaboration up to now has been a marriage of convenience - both opposed the
Obama Administration. China is too powerful for the U.S. to leverage its relations with
Beijing against Moscow. However, it is not in Beijing's interest to confront the U.S.
Trump hopes to get China to make economic concessions. In other words, Trump
seeks to make the United States the pivot in this triangular relationship and
undermine collaboration between China and Russia against the United States,

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, United States Policy Towards South East Asia
Under Trump, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, January 12, 2017. All
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.