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Started week
Friday AM
Change
Change %
ytd
DJIA
19848.82
19816.69
-32.13
-0.16%
0.27%
NASDAQ
5555.16
5568.88
13.72
0.25%
3.45%
RUSSELL 2000
1371.51
1345.74
-25.77
-1.88%
-0.84%
S&P 500
2269.14
2274.41
5.27
0.23%
1.59%
35.14%
Stocks Overvalued
64.86%
14.72%
29.78%
SECTOR OVERVIEW
Sector
Change
MTD
YTD
Valuation
Last 12-M
Return
P/E
Ratio
Aerospace
0.50%
1.96%
1.96%
14.02% overvalued
22.06%
20.73
Auto-Tires-Trucks
0.05%
1.25%
1.25%
7.47% overvalued
41.71%
14.73
Basic Materials
-0.02%
4.96%
4.94%
13.36% overvalued
91.89%
28.66
Business Services
0.10%
0.37%
0.37%
11.70% overvalued
20.09%
24.41
0.27%
2.39%
2.97%
9.71% overvalued
26.81%
31.08
Construction
0.01%
0.58%
0.58%
10.57% overvalued
39.55%
20.4
Consumer Discretionary
-0.39%
0.59%
0.59%
4.60% overvalued
27.00%
24.35
Consumer Staples
-0.12%
1.25%
1.25%
5.93% overvalued
17.25%
23.88
Finance
0.31%
0.61%
0.61%
14.84% overvalued
25.75%
17.92
Industrial Products
0.33%
1.67%
1.67%
18.57% overvalued
38.55%
24.76
Medical
-0.30%
4.64%
4.64%
4.14% undervalued
7.73%
28.07
Multi-Sector Conglomerates
0.10%
1.77%
1.77%
19.26% overvalued
26.70%
20.16
Oils-Energy
-0.82%
2.35%
2.35%
17.69% overvalued
63.22%
27.37
Retail-Wholesale
0.01%
-0.16%
-0.16%
0.68% overvalued
13.48%
23.08
Transportation
0.36%
3.46%
3.46%
11.91% overvalued
32.94%
18.63
Utilities
-0.36%
1.32%
1.32%
10.99% overvalued
28.32%
22.04
Company Name
Market Price
Valuation
TSE
TRINSEO SA
62.35
N/A
171.20%
TX
TERNIUM SA-ADR
23.78
35.30%
119.98%
RYI
RYERSON HOLDING
10.65
-13.12%
218.86%
SSRI
9.89
N/A
157.22%
RYAM
RAYONIER ADV MT
15.51
N/A
120.31%
Company Name
Market Price
Valuation
FMSA
FAIRMOUNT SNTRL
12.55
N/A
888.19%
TECK
TECK RESOURCES
23.52
-6.99%
587.72%
CC
CHEMOURS COMPNY
24.26
N/A
575.77%
CLF
CLIFFS NATURAL
9.01
24.71%
552.90%
CDE
COEUR MINING
11.19
-11.49%
546.82%
Company Name
Market Price
Valuation
MT
ARCELOR MITTAL
8.09
-23.07%
128.53%
TECK
TECK RESOURCES
23.52
-6.99%
587.72%
RYI
RYERSON HOLDING
10.65
-13.12%
218.86%
FOE
FERRO CORP
14.07
-7.82%
57.74%
VALE
VALE SA
9.8
20.22%
320.60%
Company Name
Market Price
Valuation
UAN
CVR PARTNERS LP
6.15
270.96%
13.05%
SLCA
US SILICA HOLDI
57.49
85.31%
284.29%
ANDE
ANDERSONS INC
36.75
59.77%
44.34%
PVG
10.14
57.04%
142.58%
ALB
ALBEMARLE CORP
93.05
51.26%
92.17%
Find out what Wall Street Investment and Media Professionals already know,
ValuEngine offers sophisticated stock valuation and forecast research as well as a
variety of portfolio screening and creation tools.
ValuEngine Forecast
Target
Price*
Expected
Return
1-Month
31.19
-0.14%
3-Month
31.68
1.43%
6-Month
31.78
1.75%
1-Year
30.71
-1.66%
2-Year
38.13
22.10%
3-Year
40.15
28.58%
24.25% overvalued
Valuation Rank(?)
-0.14%
39
12-M Return
9.55%
Momentum Rank(?)
37
Sharpe Ratio
0.68
11.36%
Volatility
16.68%
Volatility Rank(?)
6.00%
313.89
Size Rank
20.81
19.63
PEG Ratio
3.47
Price/Sales
2.52
Price/Sales Rank(?)
Market/Book
3.76
Market/Book Rank(?)
24
84
75
78
31
100
61
35
12
41
33
Beta
1.18
Beta Rank
31
Alpha
-0.09
Alpha Rank
30
What's Hot
Market Overvaluation Remains Elevated
ValuEngine tracks more than 7000 US equities, ADRs, and foreign stock which
trade on US exchanges as well as @1000 Canadian equities. When EPS estimates are
available for a given equity, our model calculates a level of mispricing or valuation
percentage for that equity based on earnings estimates and what the stock should
be worth if the market were totally rational and efficient--an academic exercise to be
sure, but one which allows for useful comparisons between equities, sectors, and
industries. Using our Valuation Model, we can currently assign a VE valuation
calculation to more than 2800 stocks in our US Universe.
We now calculate that 64.86% of the stocks to which we can assign a valuation
are overvalued and 29.78% of those stocks are overvalued by 20% or more. These
numbers are similar to what we saw when we published our last valuation study in
November.
However, they have increased--and have ran slightly above--the levels needed
to declare our first valuation warning since June, 2015. At that time, the SP500 was at
the 2100 level. Needless to say, from our model's perspective, equities are nowhere
near as "cheap" as they were back in late June of this year in the aftermath of "Brexit."
The so-called "Trump rally" or "post-election uncertainty rally" has been a boon
for the stock markets. Almost every major index has made new highs and flirts with
them almost every day. Things have cooled off a bit in the new year, but still, we got
a nice pop to close out 2016.
Even the Fed decision to raise rates slightly in December did little to cool off the
ardor for equities. Of course, we believe that the central blank should refrain from
additional rate hikes until workers can fully benefit from the recovery. For now, we
caution investors to remain vigilant for a move to the downside and to consider
booking some profits and perhaps ad some protection against a downside move.
The chart below tracks the valuation metrics so far this Summer/Fall. It encompasses
the lead up to the election and the post-election rally. It shows levels in excess of 40%.
The chart below tracks the valuation metrics from January 2016. It shows levels in
excess of 40%.
This chart shows overall universe over valuation in excess of 40% vs the S&P 500 from
January 2014
This chart shows overall universe under and over valuation in excess of 40% vs the S&P
500 from March 2007*
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info@ValuEngineCapital.com or by phone at (407) 308-5686.
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