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Big Data Analytics of Smart Meter Data using

Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS)


S.M. Sulaiman P. Aruna Jeyanthy and D. Devaraj
Department of Computer Science and Engineering Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering
Kalasalingam University Kalasalingam University
Anand Nagar, Krishnankoil, Tamil Nadu, India 626 126 Anand Nagar, Krishnankoil, Tamil Nadu, India 626 126
Email: sul sm@yahoo.com Email: arunadarwin@yahoo.com, deva230@yahoo.com

AbstractThe ever increasing human population and the Sustainability: Incorporating renewable energy sources
associated demand for electricity has challenged the power sector into existing power grid
to modernize its equipments and operations. This renovation
One of the important components of the Smart Grid is the
activity has made the existing grid to incorporate Information
and Communication Technologies (ICT). Installation of Smart Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) an integrated system
Meter is one of the significant changes due to developments in the of smart meters, communications networks, and data manage-
power sector that establishes two-way communication between ment systems which enables two-way communication between
the Utility and the consumers. The Smart meters collect data at Utilities and consumers. Smart Meters offer collection of fine-
high velocity leading to tremendously huge volume of data and
grained (usually every seconds or few minutes) energy con-
have been classified as Big Data. Uncovering useful information
from these Smart Meter data is a Big Data challenge. In this sumption data in an automated manner. The data accumulated
paper, Smart Meter data is used to forecast the average electricity at very high velocity from these smart meters evolves into
load for every hour on daily basis. The proposed method uses Big Data. Retrieving useful information from these mountain
Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) to predict the of data is a real challenge. In fact, a new area named Meter
load ahead of 24 hours from present day meter readings. The
Data Analytics (MDA) has received significant interest in the
experimental results are promising with the overall prediction
accuracy of 84.02% . research community [2], [3]. One of the significant feature in
KeywordsSmart Meter, Big Data, Load Forecasting, ANFIS Meter Data Analytics is Load forecasting which predicts future
expected power demand based on past history of electrical
I. I NTRODUCTION power consumption.
Load forecasting adds intelligence to the Smart Grid which
Electricity consumption is increasing day by day due to enables the Utilities to schedule the operations of power
growing global population. In order to meet the rising electric- generators. The consumers also benefit from forecasts to plan
ity demand, power plants are now using conventional energy their loads appropriately in the case of variable tariff based on
sources such as coal, gas, oil and nuclear power. Most of time of power consumption. The Smart Meter technology thus
these energy sources produce carbon dioxide (CO2 ) as a by leads to understanding of ones energy consumption, demand
product. According to [1], 25.9% of the carbon emission are flexibility and better choices on tariff plans at the consumer
due to the use of high carbon fuels in these power plants. With side. In order to prevent load shedding, Utilities can control the
an effort to reduce (CO2 ) emission, many countries impose operation of high power heating and cooling loads if granted
strict regulations to the power sector to generate cleaner and access to them by the customers.
cheaper energy. One way to produce clean energy is the The problem of load forecasting has received wide atten-
use of renewable energy sources like solar and wind that tion and there are many attempts to solve this issue since
requires advanced power infrastructure which the existing grid 1990 [4]. Several soft-computing techniques have been used
is lagging due to constructional deficiencies. Smart Grid is the such as artificial neural network (ANN) [5][8], neuro-fuzzy
solution to solve the above mentioned problems. method [9] and fuzzy logic [10] to name a few. In addition,
Addition of ICT into the existing grid transforms the current some researchers have also used other techniques like time
grid to Smart Grid, one that functions more cooperatively, series analysis [11] and support vector regression (SVR) [12].
responsively and organically. The major driving factors for However most of the earlier works had no access to fine
todays Smart Grid are: grained electrical consumption data from residential buildings
Capacity: Providing sufficient power supply to meet the due to device limitations and the less frequent manual reading
growing demand. habits.This paper works on a high volume, high resolution (two
Reliability: Continuous delivery of high-quality electrical of the three pillars of Big Data) smart meter data collected
energy without any block-out. from a residential building. The work applies one of the
Efficiency: Ensuring less power generation loss, transmis- hybrid soft-computing technique called ANFIS to predict the
sion loss and distribution loss in the entire grid system average hourly load of the house using past day consumption
recordings. C. Fuzzy if-then rules
II. A DAPTIVE N EURO F UZZY I NFERENCE S YSTEM The base of fuzzy inference systems are a set of if-then rules
Artificial Neural Network and Fuzzy Systems are two of relating the input features to the output. The fuzzy inference
the principal constituents of soft-computing [13][15]. In fact, rules are of the form:
Artificial neural network and Fuzzy system are two comple- R1 : if x1 is A1 and x2 is A2 then y1 is B1
mentary concepts. Artificial neural networks have the ability to where xi is Ai is known as antecedent or premise and yi is
learn from data while the fuzzy system are rule based model. Bi is known as consequent or conclusion. A set of such fuzzy
Fuzzy logic have been applied to a variety of applications and if-then rules are used to build the fuzzy inference system (FIS)
still receives significant attention in the research community. called knowledge base.
The fuzzy system itself doesnt have learning capability and D. Fuzzy Inference System
it has to borrow this ability from other techniques. In 1990s,
Dr. Roger Jang developed a hybrid soft-computing technique The process of establishing input-output mappings using
named adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system by integrating fuzzy logic is called fuzzy inference.The fuzzy inference
the best features of Artificial neural networks and fuzzy system works on the basis of a collection of fuzzy rules
systems [16]. ANFIS have both learning and reasoning ability called knowledge base. The development of such rules are very
which improves the prediction accuracy of the model. Within important for a fuzzy inference system. This requires in most
fuzzy logic, ANFIS plays an essential role in the induction cases the knowledge about the system under consideration.
of rules from observations. The following subsection provides Hence, the experience of a human expert is transferred in
a brief overview of the concepts and techniques involved in the formulation of fuzzy rules. Typically this is not a single
ANFIS. step development rather this involves several trials to finally
conclude a concrete set of fuzzy rules. However, in the
A. Fuzzy sets absence of a human expert still a system can be modelled
Fuzzy logic has its foundation derived from fuzzy set theory, if a set of observations (prior knowledge) are available. These
in which a variable is a member of one or more sets as observations are used to train a supervised learning technique
defined by a function called its membership function [17]. such as ANFIS. The ANFIS then learns the behaviour of the
Unlike the classical set theory, Fuzzy logic allows the use system from the presented observations to formulate the fuzzy
of linguistic variables whose values are words rather than rules as well as to tune the parameters of related membership
numbers. This enables one to compute with words instead functions.
of numbers. Although words are inherently less precise than
numbers, computing with words exploits the tolerance for E. Structure of ANFIS
imprecision which is closer to human reasoning process. The proposed ANFIS is a multilayer neural network as
A fuzzy set is a class of objects with a continuum of grades shown in Fig.1. As indicated in the figure the system has
of membership. Such a set is described by a membership func- five layers. Layer 1 has adaptive nodes where the input data
tion (MF) which assigns to each object a grade of membership is applied. Layer 2 has fixed nodes whose output determines
ranging between zero and one [18]. The grade determines rule strength. In Layer 3 there are fixed nodes which computes
whether an element is in the set (one), not in the set (zero) and the normalized firing strength. Layer 4 has adaptive nodes that
partially in the set (zero grade one). Formally, a fuzzy computes consequent parameters. The fifth layer has a single
set A in the universe of discourse X is defined as: node that computes the output which corresponds to prediction
A = {(x, A (x))|x X} (1) data. Layer 2 to 4 are called hidden layers which describes
membership functions and the fuzzy rules.
where A (x) defines the membership of x in A.
III. ANFIS DEVELOPMENT
B. Membership Functions
The core of a fuzzy system is a set of membership functions The technique used in this paper for forecasting hourly load
that defines the boundaries of fuzzy linguistic variables. In- is an ANFIS model based on first-order Tagaki-Sugeno type
stead of crisp boundaries, these membership functions defines fuzzy inference system. The steps involved in development of
a smooth boundary that ranges from zero to one. There are the ANFIS model are presented in following subsections.
many varieties of membership functions available from which A. Training and Test Data Generation
one can choose depends on problem requirements. Of the
Any forecasting model requires input data for training. In
several types of membership functions available, the most
most cases this input data describes the possible functional
commonly used membership functions in practice are the
environment of the system under consideration. In load fore-
triangular membership function and trapezoidal membership
casting problem, the readings are acquired using appropriate
function. In ANFIS, generally Gaussian membership functions
data logging infrastructure installed at homes. The smart meter
are used which is defined as:
at the site collects power consumption information and sends
(x c)2
them to a computer server. The data accumulated at the server
Gaussian(x : , c) = e 2 2 (2) is then used to build the ANFIS model.
Fig. 1. Architecture of ANFIS

B. Data Pre-processing [0, 1]. The normalization techniques used in this paper is given
The corpus for Smart Meter data usually supplies the power in Equation 5.
consumed by individual electrical circuits in the building under Xoriginal Xmin
consideration. The independent readings have at least the Xnormalized = (5)
Xmax Xmin
following three entries:
D. Training and Testing of ANFIS
1) Time instance at which the reading is measured ex-
pressed in Unix Time Stamp The ANFIS model has to be presented with the training and
2) The power consumed by a circuit in kilo watt (KW) test data in order to build the fuzzy inference system whose
3) The identity of the circuit membership function parameters are later adjusted using either
a back-propagation algorithm alone, or in combination with a
It is important to note that if the power consumption of
least squares type of method. Generally, the experimental data
the circuit is zero (i. e. the circuit is not operational) at the
is split into two groups namely training set and test set. The
time of measurement, there is no entry for the circuit at that
proposed system is trained with 80% of the experimental data
time instance. This would result in variable length feature if
the training set and remaining 20% of data is used as unseen
raw data is considered for information processing. So it is
test data to evaluate the performance of the proposed system.
customary to derive fixed length features.
The normalised training data is fed to the ANFIS to tune the
ti +3599
X X membership function parameters and to generate the fuzzy if-
Ni = 1 i, i = 1, 2, ..., 24 (3) then rules of the ANFIS model. The test set will be used to
j=ti Tj =j determine the efficiency of the ANFIS model.
IV. E XPERIMENTS AND R ESULT A NALYSIS
ti +3599
1 X X
Load forecasting is performed on the Smart* dataset from
Loadi = Pj i, i = 1, 2, ..., 24 (4)
Ni Umass Trace online Repository [19]. This is an open data
j=ti Tj =j
supporting load forecasting even at fine grained time units.
where Pj is the power consumed by a circuit at time j. The power consumption measurements are acquired from three
Equation 3 counts the number of measurements Ni from all houses identified as Home A, Home B and Home C [20].
equipments for 3600 seconds; i.e. number of loads (operational The measurements include average real and apparent power
equipments) measured for one hour. Equation 4 computes the consumed measured at every seconds, power consumption by
average power consumed for an hour. The derived information each circuit at the mains panel, real power usage from all
is then concatenated to form fixed length feature vector for plug loads measured at every 2.5 seconds. Tracking system is
every hour. provided in houses under consideration to follow the on-off-
dim events in all lights, motion sensing, door/trigger sensing,
C. Data Normalization and thermostat sensors. Apart from energy consumption data,
The dynamic range of numeric data when used in pattern power generation data like average electricity generation from
recognition, can impact the performance of the classifier. The solar panels and micro wind turbines at every five seconds
dynamic range refers to the difference between minimum and and environmental data measured at every minute via weather
the maximum value of power consumption. If the dynamic sensors both inside and outside the houses are also available.
range is too large, the higher values can numerically dominate In this paper, the analysis is accomplished over real power
the lower values during training. To utilize the strength of all measured at every second from Home A. Readings for a period
feature values, the dynamic range is generally normalized to of three months starting from 1st of May 2012 to 31st July
0.6 1.5
Actual Actual
ANFIS ANFIS
0.5

0.4 1
KW

KW
0.3

0.2 0.5

0.1

0 0
0 5 10 15 20 25 0 5 10 15 20 25
Hour Hour

1.5 0.6
Actual Actual
ANFIS ANFIS
0.5

1 0.4

KW
KW

0.3

0.5 0.2

0.1

0 0
0 5 10 15 20 25 0 5 10 15 20 25
Hour Hour

Fig. 2. Load Predicted for some randomly selected days

2012 were included in the original dataset. The days with load forecast values determined for some randomly selected
incomplete readings are not taken for the experiments. days are plotted in Fig.2. A reasonable overall prediction
The MATLAB R
Fuzzy Logic ToolboxTM is used to build accuracy of 84.02% is achieved. Table I presents hourly model
the ANFIS. As the MATLAB R
Fuzzy Logic ToolboxTM limits performance in terms of prediction accuracy averaged over
the no of ANFIS output to only one, an FIS structure for all test samples. It is evident from Table I that the model
each of the 24 hours is developed. The number of membership performance is relatively high for some hours of the day when
function is fixed to two and type is set as Gaussian. During compared to other duration where the model does not offer
the course of training, the FIS is tuned to establish the desired high performance. The dynamic usage patterns of residential
input/output relationship using the hybrid ANFIS learning customers during the day time for example could be one of
algorithm. The training set is presented to the ANFIS model the reason for this performance variation.
many times (iterations or epochs), until desired accuracy is
obtained. The testing data set is used for model validation to V. C ONCLUSIONS AND F UTURE WORK
see how well the ANFIS model predicts the corresponding A detailed analysis of a Big Data class smart meter readings
data set output values. The testing data set lets you check is done to predict the average hourly load of a residential
the generalization capability of the resulting fuzzy inference building is performed. The high resolution data was processed
system. to give a two dimensional time-series representation. A hybrid
Two different tolerance intervals are set to report prediction soft-computing technique ANFIS is used to build the predic-
results. For low valued loads, say below 1KW, the tolerance tion model. Smart* dataset is used to evaluate the proposed
is set to 100 watts for all other load values the prediction model. From the promising experimental results, there is
deviations are allowed up to 10% of actual value. The possibility to improve short term load for house hold power
number of correct predictions from the model is counted to consumption from Smart meter data using hybrid models. This
report the overall performance of the proposed model. The prediction will be highly reliable as most developing countries
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21 98.82
22 100
23 98.82
24 94.12
Overall 84.02

started installing smart meter which increases the availability


of data.

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