Afghan Stability- Engage

India
 1NC
Text: US should diplomatically and economically engage
India over the stabilizing of Afghanistan.

Alyssa Ayers 2015 (founding director of the India and South Asia practice at
McLarty Associates, the Washington-based international strategic advisory fir,
She received an AB magna cum laude from Harvard College, and an MA and
PhD from the University of Chicago) Why the US should work with India to
stabilize Afghanistan http://www.cfr.org/afghanistan/why-united-states-
should-work-india-stabilize-afghanistan/p36414
New Delhi's interests in a unified, stable, and independent Afghanistan
converge with Washington's. The Obama administration should substantially
escalate consultation with India and seek greater Indian involvement in areas
of its special capacitydemocracy, economics, and civilian securityby
undertaking the following steps: Preserve Kabul's delicate political
equilibrium. India and the United States should draw on their experiences
with democracy to advise the unity government in Kabul as it works with a
power-sharing structure unanticipated in the constitution. Given his
involvement, Secretary of State John Kerry should coordinate with India's
foreign minister, especially on the likely challenges of amending the Afghan
constitution to reflect the country's new governing structure. Advance
regional economic integration. Through its dynamic private sector and its
development support, India's assistance to Afghanistan has been fully
compatible with the U.S. New Silk Road initiative. New Delhi has become a
leader in regional economic mechanisms. U.S. officials should prioritize
connecting Afghanistan to the Indian market. This effort should include
pressing Pakistan to permit transit trade to the Attari road integrated check
post on the Indian edge of the India-Pakistan border to fulfill the letter and
spirit of the 2011 Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement. Seek budget
support from India for the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). It takes
around $4 billion annually to support the ANSF. The United States has been
the major sponsor over the years and should seek India's help. China has
stepped up assistance with a 2014 pledge of $327 million, though not
specifically for the ANSF. This topic should be raised by the U.S. ambassador
to India at the highest appropriate level and discussed by national security
advisors. Partner with India on counter-improvised explosive device (IED)
training. India's Institute of IED Management, a Central Reserve Police Force
academy, could be a node for ongoing training for Afghan forces, the police in
particular. The Pentagon's Joint Improvised Explosive Devise Defeat
Organization (JIEDDO) has been developing international partnerships on
counter-IED training, and India's institute provides a perfect opportunity to
develop a regional partnerespecially as JIEDDO shrinks in size. Partner with
India on ANSF support-function training. Literacy training remains a critical
ANSF need. The U.S. special inspector general assessed the NATO-run $200
million literacy program as having only "limited impact." India runs the
world's largest adult literacy program. Military emergency medicine is
another area of strong Indian talent. Logistics and supply-chain management
are also areas that could help the ANSF perform better in their challenging
terrain. The United States and India have had great success with joint training
for third countries, such as with agriculture extension training for African
countries. Shifting training for these support functions from the current
Western contractors model to India, which is closer and has greater regional
expertise, would offer more bang for the buck.
 2NC
Greater US- Indian engagement in Afghanistan solves
regional economic integration which is key to stability

Lisa Curtis 2015( Senior Research Fellow for South Asia in the Asian Studies
Center, of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for National Security
and Foreign Policy, at The Heritage Foundation was the White House-
appointed senior adviser to the assistant secretary of state for South Asian
affairs) http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2015/07/us-engagement-
required-afghanistan-must-avoid-an-iraq-style-breakdown

Afghanistans future economic success depends largely on its ability to

integrate with other economies in the region, namely Pakistan. Developing
greater economic links with its neighbors would enhance private-sector
investment in the countrys infrastructure and generate customs receipts,
thereby allowing Afghanistan to be less reliant on donor aid. Ghani has put
forth a development strategy based on regional connectivity through trade,
transit, and investments, in hopes of making Afghanistan a key transit
country for Central and South Asia. A modest step toward regional integration
was made last December when Pakistan, Afghanistan, Tajikistan, and
Kyrgyzstan formalized an agreement, the Central Asia South Asia Electricity
Transmission and Trade Project (CASA-1000), to allow the export of electricity
from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to Pakistan and Afghanistan. During Ghanis
visit to Washington, he and President Obama agreed to organize a meeting of
like-minded nations to discuss Afghanistan and regional integration on the
margins of the 2015 U.N. General Assembly. A Pakistani delegation led by
Trade Minister Khurram Dastgir Khan made an important visit to Kabul in mid-
April in which the two sides shared a draft preferential trade agreement
aimed at reducing transportation costs of traded goods. Ghani has said he
wants to double trade with Pakistan to $5 billion. To be fully successful,
though, regional economic integration must also include India. During
President Ghanis recent visit, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi called for
India to be part of the AfghanistanPakistan Trade and Transit Agreement to
allow goods to flow from Afghanistan via Pakistan to India. India has provided
$2.2 billion in aid to Afghanistan over the past decade, helping fund projects
including the new parliament building; the Zaranj-Delaram road connecting
Iran to Afghanistan; a transmission line from Pul-e-Khumri to Kabul; and the
Salma Dam. In 2011, a consortium of Indian companies won the bid to
develop the Hajigak iron ore mine in Bamiyan province, but the project has
stalled due to security concerns. Developing Afghanistans untapped mining
and minerals industry could hold the key to Afghanistans economic future. A
survey released in June 2010 by the U.S. Department of Defense said
Afghanistan may have untapped mineral resources worth over $1 trillion.
Turkmenistan has recently renewed its interest in the Turkmenistan
AfghanistanPakistanIndia (TAPI) pipeline project as it seeks to diversify
energy-export markets and reduce dependence on China as a consumer.[20]
The proposed pipeline, for which the Asian Development bank serves as
transaction advisor, remains delayed by lack of funding and interest from an
established international operator. Security concerns remain at the fore as
the proposed pipeline would cut across southern Afghanistan, where the
Taliban insurgency is strongest, and the Baluchistan province of Pakistan,
which also faces an active insurgency. The U.S. must maintain robust
engagement in Afghanistan, including through support for the Afghan security
forces and investments in economic projects that involve the private sector
and encourage regional economic integration. Ghanis attempts to foster
reconciliation with the Taliban, while welcome, are unlikely to bear fruit in the
near term since the Taliban likely calculates that a military solution could still
go in its favor. The Taliban is counting on international funding and military
support to dry up, weakening the Afghan Army and undermining political
stability.
 At: Pakistan Backlash
Engagement solves Pakistan backlash- recent agreements
prove

Alyssa Ayers 2015 (founding director of the India and South Asia practice at
McLarty Associates, the Washington-based international strategic advisory fir,
She received an AB magna cum laude from Harvard College, and an MA and
PhD from the University of Chicago) Why the US should work with India to
stabilize Afghanistan http://www.cfr.org/afghanistan/why-united-states-
should-work-india-stabilize-afghanistan/p36414

The United States endorses India's development and economic role in

Afghanistan and heralded the India-Afghanistan SPA, but has said little about
Indian security assistance. Support across civilian security areas necessary
for rule of law and shoring up Afghan forces could be an Indian strength.
Islamabad may object. The United States should discuss with Pakistani
officials the benefits of a larger Indian role, including in civilian security areas,
and be upfront about how greater stability in Afghanistan will benefit
Pakistan. Budget support and training in unobjectionable areas like literacy
and medicine, particularly with no boots on the ground, has not and will not
pose any risk to Pakistan. Reasonable proposals for Indian collaboration in
Afghanistan involving no Indian troops on the ground should not be subject to
a Pakistani veto. To alleviate Pakistani anxieties, the United States should
encourage New Delhi and Kabul to be transparent with Islamabad on their
joint efforts. With Pakistan and India now embedded together in regional
diplomatic mechanisms, added disincentives exist against Pakistani attempts
to deny Indian support to Afghanistan when it would clearly benefit the region
through greater stability. The most recent example of this changed dynamic
took place at the November 2014 SAARC summit. A regional electricity
agreementsupported by all SAARC countries except Pakistanultimately
secured unanimity after the SAARC countries counseled Pakistan to agree for
the betterment of the region.
 Aff Answers
Indian involvement is seen as strategic threat to Pakistan
leading to more terrorism and greater instability in
Afghanistan.

Nicole Waintraub 2010 (Senior Research Associate at the University of

Ottawa, olitical Studies atQueen's University; Public and International Affairs
atGraduate School of Public and International Affairs, University of Ottawa)
http://ploughshares.ca/pl_publications/india-pakistan-relations-and-the-
impact-on-afghanistan/

Some also see Indias involvement in Afghanistan as an effort to displace or

counterbalance Pakistans influence in the country, which some elements
within Afghanistan welcome (Bajoria 2009). India has strong ties to the so-
called Northern Alliance. Many of its leaders were educated in India, including
Afghan President Hamid Karzai (Bajoria 2009). As Indias power in
Afghanistan expands, especially its soft power, Pakistan is losing its position
of economic and strategic privilege. In its place is a power with possibly
hostile intentions against it. For example, Indias reconstruction and
development projects through Afghanistans Pashtun belt are seen as ways of
fomenting separatist movements in Pakistan. Pakistan sees Indias growing
influence, particularly its consular presence in Afghanistan, as a threat.
Shortly after the fall of the Taliban, India reestablished several
consulates.While India has legitimate consular interests in Afghanistan
Hindu and Sikh populations, commercial relations, and aid programsthere is
some speculation by Pakistan that India has also been using these consulates
as a cover for its intelligence agencies to carry out covert operations.
Islamabad believes that India is colluding with Afghan officials to stoke Baloch
separatism in Pakistan (Gundu & Schaffer 2008). For decades India and
Pakistan have contended for favourable positions within Afghanistan.
Throughout this struggle, Pakistan has seen Afghanistan as a vital source of
strategic depth. In early 2010, General Kayani, Pakistans Chief of the
Defence Staff, stated that a peaceful and friendly Afghanistan can provide
Pakistan a strategic depth (Hussain 2010). Though the meaning of this term
has changed over time, its persistence in Pakistans strategic vocabulary
evokes Pakistans perception of relations with Afghanistan as a way to defend
against other outside forces. Although Gen. Kayani was clear that strategic
depth must not be confused with control, Afghans remain highly sensitive
to such language. Pakistans military establishment has long viewed its
engagement in Afghanistan largely from the context of its struggle against
India. Thus Indias growing presence in Afghanistan contributes to Pakistans
fears of encirclement. Indias establishment of its first overseas air base in
nearby Farkhor, Tajikistan has further aggravated such fears (Gundu &
Schaffer 2008). Pakistans behind-the-scenes support for the Taliban is
believed to be rooted, in large part, in its concern that India is attempting to
encircle it by gaining influence in Afghanistan. The Taliban is thought to offer
Pakistan its best chance at neutralizing Indias regional power expansion
(Pakistan Policy Working Group 2010). This support has led to increased
instability in Afghanistan, both through heightened terrorist activity and
increased opium cultivation (Bajoria 2009). It has also further complicated the
international efforts at reconstruction as well as intensified the strain on the
already tenuous Afghanistan-Pakistan relationship. As calls for a Grand
Bargain increasingly include the Taliban, Pakistans ties with its various
strands will become all the more relevant.

Indian involvement is alreay high now- no reason US India

cooperation changes that

Business Standard 2016 6 things to know about the India-Afghanistan

relationship http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/5-
things-to-know-about-the-india-afghanistan-relationship-
116010400230_1.html
Over the past decade and a half, India and Afghanistan have seen their ties
deepening the process started with the Taliban government getting
toppled in December 2001. The growing ties have not sat well with all actors
in the region. There have been several attacks on Indian assets in the
country. The Indian consulate in Mazar-i-Sharif, a northern Afghan city, came
under attack on Sunday. Another attack, planned to be carried out on Indias
consulate in Afghanistan's eastern city of Jalalabad during Prime Minister
Modi's vsist to the country, was foiled by Afghanistans intelligence service
according to an Indian Express report. Here are 6 things to know about the
India-Afghanistan relations: 1) Bilateral trade Indias bilateral trade with
Afghanistan stood at $684.47 million in 2014-15, an increase of 0.20 per cent
over $683.10 million a year earlier, and 20.41 per cent higher than $568.44
million in 2010-11. Indias exports to Afghanistan in 2014-15 stood at $
422.56 million, while its imports from that country were worth $261.91
million. Despite the lack of direct land access, India is the second-largest
destination for Afghan exports. 2) Defence India, according to an International
Business Times report, delivered three Russia-made Mi-25 attack helicopters
to Afghanistan in December last year. Reports suggest it is to deliver an
additional helicopter soon. 3) Parliament building Prime Minister Narendra
Modi and Afghan President Mohammad Ashraf Ghani on December 25
inaugurated the newly built Afghan Parliament building. India has constructed
the new building at a cost of about $90 million, as a sign of friendship. 4)
Heart of Asia conference According to an Indian Express report, India will
host the Heart of Asia conference on Afghanistan this year. The previous
iteration of the meet was held in Pakistan in December last year. The
conference saw India and Pakistan attempt to sort out their strategic
concerns regarding Afghanistan. Pakistan, in particular, has been opposed to
any growth in Indian influence in the the country and views Afghanistan as
essential for achieving strategic depth. Despite India's requests for direct
land access to Afghanistan, Pakistan has refused to provide such facility over
its strategic concerns. Commenting on the alternate routes India could use to
access Afghanistan in the absence of direct land access, External Affairs
Minister Sushma Swaraj told the gathered ministers: India is also working
with Afghanistan and Iran to develop trilateral transit. Participation in
development of Chahbahar will augment our connectivity with Afghanistan
and beyond. 5) Indias role Commenting on India-Afghanistan ties, US State
Department Spokesperson John Kirby had in August last year said: India has
played a constructive role over several past years inside Afghanistan. Kirbys
statement had come as he urged other nations like China to do the same.
India has so far given financial assistance worth over $2 billion to Afghanistan
and has been involved in massive developmental efforts in the war-torn
country.
Asteroids 1- Kinetic Impactor
 1NC
Text: The United States Federal Government will have
NASA develop a Kinetic Impactor for the purpose of
asteroid deflection
NASA 2/11/13, Space agency belonging to the government, An
Innovative Solution to NASA's NEO Impact Threat Mitigation Grand Challenge
and Flight Validation Mission Architecture Development,
http://www.nasa.gov/directorates/spacetech/niac/2012_phaseII_fellows_wie.ht
ml
A Hypervelocity Asteroid Intercept Vehicle (HAIV) mission architecture, which
blends a hypervelocity kinetic impactor with a subsurface nuclear explosion
for optimal fragmentation and dispersion of hazardous near-Earth objects
(NEOs), has been developed through a 2011 NIAC Phase I study. Despite the
uncertainties inherent to the nuclear disruption approach, disruption can
become an effective strategy if most fragments disperse at speeds in excess
of the escape velocity of an asteroid so that a very small number of
fragments impacts the Earth. Thus, the proposed HAIV system will become
essential for reliably mitigating the most probable impact threat: NEOs with
warning times shorter than 10 years. It offers a potential breakthrough or
great leap in mission capabilities for mitigating the impact threat of NEOs.
The proposed Phase II study further develops the HAIV-based mission
architecture and explores its potential infusion options within NASA and
beyond. Direct intercept missions with a short warning time will result in
closing impact velocities of 10-30 km/s with respect to the target asteroid.
Given such a large arrival velocity correction requirement, a last-minute
rendezvous mission to the target asteroid is infeasible with existing launch
vehicles. Furthermore, state-of-the-art penetrating subsurface nuclear
explosion technology limits the penetrator's impact velocity to less than
approximately 300 m/s because higher impact velocities prematurely destroy
the nuclear fuzing mechanisms. Consequently, hypervelocity nuclear
interceptor/penetrator technology needs to be significantly advanced to
enable a last-minute NEO disruption mission with intercept velocities as high
as 30 km/s. The proposed HAIV system consists of a fore body (a leader
spacecraft) to provide proper kinetic-energy impact crater conditions for an
aft body (a follower spacecraft) carrying nuclear explosives. The proposed
concept exploits the inherent effectiveness of a subsurface nuclear explosion
for NEO disruption (fragmentation and dispersion). It is known that a generic
300-kt nuclear explosion at 3-m depth of burst has the ground-shock-coupling
enhancement factor of at least 20, which is equivalent to a simpler contact
burst of approximately 6-Mt. However, the proposed system's complexity
versus its benefits needs to be further investigated in the proposed Phase II
study. Thus, the primary objective of Phase II study is to further assess
various key issues such as performance robustness/sensitivity, mission
reliability, system/mission complexity vs. benefits, development time and
cost, and infusion path options of the proposed innovative solution to NASA's
NEO Impact Threat Mitigation Grand Challenge. A unique approach in our
Phase II study is to collaborate with the IDC (Integrated Design Center) of
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The IDC is a unique facility at
GSFC that brings engineers and customers together to conduct rapid space-
flight system and mission concept design studies. The IDC at NASA GSFC will
rigorously examine the technical feasibility and practical effectiveness of the
proposed HAIV system concept. Expanding on the IDC's technical assessment
of the proposed HAIV concept, our Phase II study team will further develop,
refine, and evaluate the HAIV-based mission architecture. The goals of the
Phase II study are to advance the HAIV technology from TRL 1-2 to TRL 3 and
to identify key enabling technologies required for the HAIV system. A 10-year
technology roadmap for NASA's NEO Impact Threat Mitigation Grand
Challenge as well as a near-term demo mission architecture for flight-
validating planetary defense technologies (but without carrying actual
nuclear explosives) will be developed in the Phase II study.
 2NC O/V
The CP has the US, with NASA as the advocate, develop a
kinetic impactor. The kinetic impactor will deflect the
asteroid of its course, preventing an asteroid from
impacting earth.
The kinetic impactor has the required research and has
been tested successfully
WILLIAM HARRIS 3/26/12, William Harris is a freelance writer stationed near
Washington, D.C. He holds a bachelor's degree in biology from Virginia Tech
and a master's degree in science education from Florida State University, 10
Ways to Stop a Killer Asteroid, http://science.howstuffworks.com/10-ways-to-
stop-asteroid.htm
If you've ever played pool, then you know about kinetic energy, which is the
energy possessed by any moving object. The kinetic energy of a struck cue
ball is what gets transferred to other balls on the table. Astronomers believe
the same principle could deflect an earthbound asteroid. In this case, the cue
ball is an unmanned spacecraft similar to the probe used in NASA's Deep
Impact mission (not to be confused with the movie). The mass of the Deep
Impact vessel was only 816 pounds (370 kilograms), but it was moving really,
really fast -- 5 miles (10 kilometers) per second [source: NASA]. Kinetic
energy depends on both the mass and speed of an object, so a small object
moving fast still has a lot of energy. When mission engineers slammed the
Deep Impact probe into the surface of the Tempel 1 comet in 2005, it was
slated to deliver 19 gigajoules of kinetic energy. That's the equivalent of 4.8
tons of TNT, enough to shift the comet ever so slightly in its orbit [source:
NASA]. Astronomers weren't looking to alter Tempel 1's trajectory, but they
know now it could be done, should an asteroid or comet set its sights on
Earth. Even with a success under their belt, scientists acknowledge the
enormous challenge of such a mission. It's sort of like hitting a speeding
cannonball with a speeding bullet. One wrong move, and you could miss your
target completely or hit it off-center, causing it to tumble or crack into pieces.
In 2005, the European Space Agency came up with the Don Quijote concept
to improve the odds of a kinetic impactor mission (see sidebar). You might
classify nuclear weapons or kinetic impactors as instant-gratification solutions
because their success (or failure) would be immediately apparent. Many
astronomers, however, prefer to take the long view when it comes to asteroid
deflection.
With Proper tests having been conducted in the squo, the
CP is a fool-proof scenario that solves for the asteroid
advantage.
Extensive research has gone into the Kinetic Impactor
Neoshield-2 4/8/15, Neoshield project, Kinetic impactor,
http://www.neoshield.net/mitigation-measures/kinetic-impactor/
The principle of the kinetic impactor mitigation method is that the NEO is
deflected following an impact from an impactor spacecraft. The principle of
momentum transfer is used, as the impactor crashes into the NEO at a very
high velocity of 10km/s or more. The mass and velocity of the impactor (the
momentum) are transferred to the NEO, causing a change in velocity and
therefore making it deviate from its course slightly. An explorer spacecraft is
also required, which allows accurate measurement of the NEOs orbit before
the impact. Additionally, the explorer can map the NEO, providing the
impactor with vital information such as its exact size, shape, rotation speed
and even chemical composition. Following the impact, the explorer once
again accurately measures the orbit of the NEO to confirm the success of the
impact in changing the NEOs course. The behavior of the impact itself, and
how the momentum is transferred to the NEO, is a key research topic for the
scientific side of the NEOShield project. For example, if the impact blasts
material from the surface of the NEO out into space this increases the
efficiency of the impact because this material transfers additional momentum
to the NEO. The kinetic impactor concept has been studied to phase A level
within Europe in the frame of the Don Quijote mission study. The experience
gained from this study has been used during the NEOShield project in
developing the detailed test mission design for the kinetic impactor
mitigation method.

The net benefit is the elections DA, it links to the plan and
the CP has no effect on the election.
The public doesnt care about NASA funding or space
NASA Watch 3/1/16, website dedicated to tracking things related to
NASA and space exploration, Space Is A Non-issue in Presidential Elections,
http://nasawatch.com/archives/2016/03/space-is-a-non-.html
Space is just a blip on the political radar. Rarely, if ever, has it had any
influence on a presidential election whatsoever - and then, it was fleeting and
usually on late night comedy shows. Nor is it likely to change during this
election. Besides, whatever you hear during the campaign will be revised and
reinterpreted after the election. The candidates forget the issue 2 minutes
after they answer a question about it. Nothing on the horizon suggests that
there will be a large increase in NASA's budget. Nor is anyone really targeting
NASA for drastic cuts. Given the large commitments the agency is already in
the middle of, and the prospect of flat budgets, it is unlikely that there will be
any seismic shifts. As for the #JourneyToMars - absent a large infusion of
money (again, not likely) the current pay-as-you-go, we-don't-need-a-plan
approach is simply not going to get us to Mars any sooner. The most that
space advocates should hope for after the dust settles is that the agency will
be held more accountable for its performance and that some budgetary and
policy stability will be injected into things already underway so as to make
them progress more efficiently.
 Aff Answers
Asteroid impact inevitable, the policy-making process is
too much of a blockade, the technology isnt advanced
enough, and stopping an asteroid is too expensive
Independent 6/29/15, online newspaper, How to stop an asteroid
hitting Earth: Would people co-operate to face a global peril?,
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/how-to-stop-an-asteroid-hitting-
earth-would-people-cooperate-to-face-a-global-peril-10353951.html
Meanwhile, after eight years of deliberating, in March the UN finally
announced the creation of a global early-warning system to protect the
planet from a potentially city-destroying, tsunami-causing or, worse,
civilisation-ending large space object. And in mid-April the planetary
defenders tested the concept in Frascati. Their mission: save the planet from
an asteroid possibly four times the size of a football field. The scenarios were
so realistic that their press releases had to be emblazoned with bright red
boxes proclaiming, "Exercise. Exercise. Not a Real World Event." At the
beginning of the game, participants learned that an asteroid, estimated to be
somewhere between 460 and 1,300ft in diameter, was apparently on course
to smash into Earth on 3 September 2022. They divided into three groups
national and international policymakers, the media and scientists and
played out over five days what humans might do. In the first year after the
asteroid's discovery (days one and two), the participants heard that scientists
had estimated a long "risk corridor" from south-east Asia to Turkey. As the
asteroid moved through its orbit, the experts refined their predictions, homed
in on its size and likely damage point, and advised policymakers on the
options. By August 2019 (day four), the participants learnt global
policymakers had agreed to fire six kinetic impactors, and they reached their
target six months later. However, a debris cloud then prevented participants
from knowing what had worked until January 2021 (day five), when it was
announced that two of the six KIs had missed, one had hit and fractured the
asteroid, and another had broken off a chunk that remained on a path
towards Earth but was hidden from view by sunlight. Two others hit the
remains of the now-broken asteroid, deflecting the largest piece of it. The
following year (later on day five), the participants learnt that the broken
fragment was still hurtling toward Earth and remained a significant hazard. It
would arrive on time, somewhere in India, Bangladesh or Myanmar. And
about a "month" before its impact, scientists were able to pinpoint the
object's size (about 261ft in diameter), as well as the likely time (9am) and
precise location (Dhaka, Bangladesh, population 15 million). They predicted
that the explosion would release 18 megatons of energy: similar to that
explosion in 1908 that flattened thousands of miles of Siberian forest. Chodas
says: "The number one lesson I took away is that we need infrared, in-space
telescopes to tell us more about the sizes of these objects." Johnson says that
the exercise proved that humans can mount an asteroid response and it can
be affordable, a key element when trying to prevent disasters that might not
occur in our lifetimes. ("A few hundred experts and a few hundred million
dollars per year," he says.) The astronaut Russell "Rusty" Schweickart says: "I
fear there's not enough of a collective survival instinct to really overcome the
centrifugal political forces. That is, in a nutshell, the reason we'll get hit"
But the exercise ended on a cliffhanger, with a massive, flaming rock closing
in on a teeming, impoverished Asian city. Having done the best they could,
the planetary defenders hung up their hero lanyards, packed their suitcases,
checked out of their hotels and headed for the airport, leaving the planet
forewarned.

Political blockades make the CP impossible

AAAS 8/23/9, Worlds largest general scientific society, Space Scientists
Weigh Technology, Diplomacy Challenges of Global Asteroid Threat,
http://www.aaas.org/news/space-scientists-weigh-technology-diplomacy-
challenges-global-asteroid-threat
In a symposium at the annual meeting of the AAAS Pacific Division,
Schweickart and Lu suggested that novel technology is available that would
allow humans to closely track such an asteroid and to redirect its orbit.
What's lacking, they said, is political recognition that asteroids will
periodically threaten Earth in the futureand that the time to plan and
prepare is now. "What do we do when we find one with our name on it?"
asked Schweickart, the pilot during the first manned test of the lunar module
during the Apollo 9 mission in 1969. Because so many nations could be
affected, and because their interests and abilities are so diverse, that is "a
big, difficult, geo-political issue."

CP fails, without more advanced tracking, we cannot stop

an asteroid in time
Elise Hu 3/20/13, international Correspondent, Seoul, South Korea,
Scientists: 'No Options' To Stop Massive Asteroids On Collision Course,
http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2013/03/20/174851714/scientists-no-
options-to-stop-massive-asteroids-on-collision-course
Without "a few years" warning, humans currently have no capacity to stop an
asteroid on a collision course with the planet, scientists told a Senate panel
Wednesday. "Right now we have no options," said former astronaut Ed Lu. "If
you dont know where they are, there's nothing you can do." Scientists are
calling for continued funding and support for NASA satellites and observation
programs that look for "near Earth objects." The scenario from Hollywood
blockbuster Armageddon is on the minds of lawmakers after two hulking
rocks exploded in the air over Russia in February. More than 1,000 people
were injured, bringing the risks of future incidents and measures to
prevent them into clearer focus.
Asteroids 2- PGS
 1NC
CP Text: The United States federal government should
launch ballistic missile technology from hypersonic
aircraft at an approaching asteroid
CP Text: The United States federal government should
sufficiently fund for the House Committee on Science,
Space, and Technology for the use of ballistic missiles
against asteroids
Nuclear missiles can solve an asteroid strike but funding
is lacking
Weinstein 11 (Atomic Bombs Vs. Asteroids, and Other Uses for Old
Nukes
His work has been focused on new uses for existing nuclear tech nology. The one he's most
passionate about is a peaceful application: using nuclear bombs to protect
the planet from "Earth killer" space objects. Dearborn's evangelism has convinced
several important supporters that "the nuclear option is the only useful
technology for large asteroids." A 2007 NASA study (PDF) concluded that atomic
explosions "are the technology of choice for deflecting" objects near Earth .
Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-Calif.), who sits on the House Committee on Science, Space,
and Technology, has made asteroid-killing nukes a personal cause. "We
should be able to spend hundreds of millions of dollars in order to protect us
from an asteroid or a comet that would do far more damage than the
terrorists could ever imagine," he explained in a hearing that trumpeted NASA's (and
Dearborn's) findings. Dearborn launched his anti-asteroid crusade on his own. For
several years, he paid his own way to present his views at scientific conferences. "The lab has
always encouraged scientists to become involved in research that's outside of the narrowest programmatic
views," he says. Only after the astronomy community took note did his bosses say, "Hey, maybe we should
be funding this."Teams of researchers are now working on the problem at
Livermore and Los Alamos, its sister lab in New Mexico. Nobody's better
qualified to figure out how an atomic explosion would affect a space objects
hurling toward Earth, Dearborn says. After all, "We have experience in making holes in the ground."
All the same, given the low short-term probability of an asteroid collision with
Earth, he concedes, "Probably we shouldn't drop everything and pour a whole lot of
resources into it." Government scientists have been dreaming up unusual applications for nuclear
weapons technology ever since the dawn of the Atomic Age. The '50s brought us Atomic Annie, the Army's
nuclear field cannon, and the Davy Crockett, a one-man field rocket tipped by a 50-pound warhead that
could level two city blocks. There was Operation Plowshare, which envisioned using nukes for civil
engineering, from widening the Panama Canal to extracting natural gas. NASA flirted with Project Orion, an
ambitious plan to launch a spaceship into interplanetary orbit with 800 atomic explosions. Critics of the
Little
nuclear weapons complex see the ongoing search for new ways to use nukes as wasteful, at best.
new research on atomic weapons is necessary , says Robert Civiak, a weapons
budget analyst who worked as a physicist at the Livermore lab in the '80s. Gauging the
behavior and reliability of a nuclear blast is "a mature science we've had for
70 years," he says. Many anti-nuclear activists suspect this is more about money than
science or national security. The nation's three main nuclear labs "are accustomed to the style in which
they were born," says Jay Coghlan, the director of Nuclear Watch New Mexico, a clearinghouse for open-
source information on the labs. "Large and lavish." While Dearborn has been promoting nuclear weapons
The
as a sci-fi savior, he's also been working on a new military applications for Cold War-era weaponry.
Prompt Global Strike system was conceived by the Pentagon under Defense
Secretary Donald Rumsfeld to solve a post-9/11 problem: What if the United
States had the need to immediately and stealthily strike a target halfway
around the world, beyond the range of bombers, drones, or Seal Team Six? The goal, Dearborn says,
was to develop something to address "situations when it's 'Oh my God, we've got to do
something and we've got to do it in the next few hours !'" In other words, the Osama
bin Laden problem on steroids. The military already had a weapon designed to solve
the time-sensitive delivery problem: intercontinental ballistic missiles. Of course,
dropping nukes on terrorist camps is a no-go. But if atomic warheads were swapped out for conventional
explosives, the Air Force stated in its 2003 transformation plan (PDF), ICBMs could accomplish the aim "of
holding terrorist-related targets at risk everywhere. It would also allow the US to project power almost
immediately in areas with no forward-deployed forces or easy access." In 2006, the Bush administration
pledged $1 billion to put two conventional ballistic missiles on each of its nuclear-launch submarines.
Dearborn and his colleagues got to work making ICBMs accurate enough to
pinpoint targets with non-nuclear payloads. That was never a concern when
the missiles were nuclear-tipped. "When throwing nuclear warheads, it's a lot like horseshoes,
in that closeness counts," he says. "The accuracy is not necessarily what you need for a conventional
weapon." The ICBM plan has well-placed champions. In 2008, University of Maryland public-policy
Ballistic missiles are
professor Steve Fetter extolled its virtues in a lecture at Princeton University.
cheap, plentiful, and the only PGS technology available in the short term, he
explained. He shrugged off the possibility that the Russians might mistakenly think an ICBM was part of a
nuclear attack. They would quickly realize that they weren't the target, Fetter stated; and if they
mistakenly assumed they were the target, his PowerPoint notes stated, " Russia would not
retaliate to launch of 2-4 missiles." In 2009, Fetter went on leave from Maryland to become
assistant director of the White House's Office of Science and Technology Policy. (He declined to talk on the
The Obama administration has continued funding for Prompt Global
record.)
Strike, but it is now focusing on delivering explosives via a hypersonic aircraft
just outside the Earth's atmosphere. Dearborn's been a part of that effort, too. Earlier this
year he participated in test shoots of modified Peacekeeper missiles , which then
launched a vehicle that streaked over the Pacific Ocean at 20 times the speed of sound.
 2NC
Tests have happened CP feasible
Good 13 (NASA's Actual Plan to Deflect an Approaching Asteroid Chris
Good, Political Reporter for ABC Today, he was previously an associate editor
at The Atlantic and a reporter for The Hill. May 21, 2013,
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/05/nasas-actual-plan-to-deflect-an-
approaching-asteroid/ - LK)
Asteroids are frightening things. With the approach ofQE2, a big one that would end
civilization, the galaxy briefly put Earth on notice. Thankfully, QE2 is slated to miss the
planet tonight. "Scientists have concluded that the asteroid poses no threat to planet Earth," White
House spokesman Josh Earnest told reporters on Friday, reassuring mankind it will live
another day. "I never really thought I'd be standing up here saying that, but I guess I am." But what
if an asteroid were headed straight for Earth ? NASA evidently has us covered. In 2005, in
a bill authorizing space-program funds, Congress asked NASA for a plan to identify, track
and deflect - yes, deflect - all manner of PHOs (potentially harmful objects) that
could pose a threat. The directive, according to NASA, is known as the George E. Brown Jr. Near-
Earth Object Survey Act, named after the late Democratic chairman of the Committee on
Science, Space and Technology, who died in 1999 and didn't live to see NASA's asteroid plan on
paper. Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, R-Calif., successfully included it in the 2005 bill . With
that congressional prompt, NASA considered many science-reality options, including
some that bore resemblance to film plots. Among the solutions NASA studied were firing a
nuclear missile at the asteroid, landing a nuclear bomb on the surface,
drilling into the great space rock and exploding a nuclear bomb there ( which
Bruce Willis attempted to do in the film, "Armageddon"), and all those same strategies with conventional
bombs.

CP funds the House Committee on Science, Space, and

Technology to buy the missiles from the developer,
Dearborn, both of which lack money but have the tech
 Aff
Perm do Both
PGS infeasible too expensive and tests failed
Acton 14 (James M. Acton is a senior associate in the Nuclear Policy
Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.
(Why Do We Need Hypersonic Strike Weapons, Exactly? Defense One,
September 17, 2014, http://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2014/09/why-do-we-
need-hypersonic-strike-weapons-exactly/94379/ - LK)
Its hard to dispute the notion that before spending billions of dollars on a
new weapon, the Pentagon ought to be able to explain what its for . So its
surprising how often this rule isnt followed. Take the Advanced Hypersonic Weapon . Just
tested last month, its the latest candidate technology being developed for the
Defense Departments Conventional Prompt Global Strike program, an effort
to develop long-range, ultra-fast, non-nuclear weapons . Following a successful
test in 2011, hopes were running high ,but the booster rocket went out of control and
was deliberately destroyed shortly after its launch from Alaska. If the test had gone
to plan, the rocket would have released a glider that would then have flownwithout powerfor about
Members of Congress will
4,000 miles across the Pacific at many times the speed of sound.
undoubtedly want to know about the causes of this failure and whether a do-
over is warranted (which it may well be since the glider itself never got the chance to perform). But
they should also be asking tough questions about how this weapon fits into
broader U.S. defense strategy.

Launching a missile at an asteroid fails scientists

Rogoway 16 (Tyler Rogoway is a defense journalist and photographer who
maintains the website Foxtrot Alpha for Jalopnik.com; Russians Want To
Launch An ICBM At A Near-Earth Asteroid And Nuke It In 2036 February 12,
2016, http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/russians-want-to-launch-an-icbm-at-a-
near-earth-asteroi-1758697417 - LK)
Hes probably right. Using a solid-fueled rocket does make a lot sense for this type of mission, and the idea
of turning the worlds deadliest weapon into something that could potentially save millions, or even billions
But the whole blowing a meteorite to smithereens thing is a
of lives, is intriguing.
little concerning. If the meteorite were not vaporized, it could turn one
big problem into many smaller problems that still could wreak havoc
on earth. If all of this sounds like doom-and-gloom, or a page out of a bad 90s disaster movie, know
that scientists have addressed this possibility of a large asteroid striking the
planet. Here is Neil DeGrasse Tyson giving a little narrative of what a hit from Apophis would look like
here on Earth:
Co-Financing CP-AIIB
 1NC
CP text: The US should ensure acceptance of ADB and
World Bank safeguards and reform the IMF in order to
boost co-financing with the AIIB in China and East Asia

Ensuring safeguards encourages ADB and World Bank co-

financing with the AIIB that maintains control of the US-
led MDBs over the AIIB
Orr, 5/4/16 --- US ambassador to the Asian Development Bank from 2010
to 2016 and is a member of the Pacific Forum CSIS Board (Robert M., PacNet
#39 - The Asian Development Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment
Bank: conditional collaboration? https://www.csis.org/analysis/pacnet-39-
asian-development-bank-and-asian-infrastructure-investment-bank-
conditional, - LK)
To the AIIBs credit, it seems to have heard the concerns about safeguard
policy and has engaged former officials from other MDBs to help craft
practical policies or at least deploy the right buzz words. They have an emphasis on transparency,
accountability, openness, and independence. As the new president, former ADB Vice President Jin Liqun
has said, the AIIB will be lean, clean, and green. The AIIB Secretariat plans to have 700
personnel, which is substantially less than the 2,000 employees at the ADB
headquarters. It is too early to tell whether the AIIB will adhere to these precepts, as it only opened its
doors in January of this year. The proof will be in the pudding, but there are already good signs . I am
encouraged by the extent to which the AIIB has reached out even before
opening to consult with other MDBs such as the ADB and World Bank.
Already AIIB officials are studying the feasibility of co-financing 18
projects proposed by the World Bank and eight submitted by the
ADB. Many of these could be approved by the AIIB Board as early as this summer. The ADB has
made it clear that there will be no co-financing with the AIIB until ADB safe -
guards are accepted, and this does not seem to have given the AIIB any pause. The AIIB, with
57 member countries, will have a different emphasis than the ADB , with its
expanded capital base moving into new areas such as education and healthcare. This will be a small
step from the ADBs comfort zone of infrastructure ; some have said that ADB really
stands for Asian Dams and Bridges. That said, the AIIB looks to remain in the
infrastructure and connectivity space. One area of governance that many have viewed with
discomfort is the AIIBs insistence on a non-resident Board of 12 members. A resident Board is viewed,
apparently, as an unnecessary cost, but it is necessary for efficient oversight. On the ADB Board when I or
my staff had concerns, arranging a face-to-face meeting with management could be done in minutes.
Emails and long distance phone calls were insufficient. Smaller MDBs like the Caribbean Development
Bank with a capital base of around $3 billion can handle this. But its hard to see how a mega-bank
like what the AIIB envisions will be able to sustain such fragile governance. It will be interesting
to see how nongovernmental organizations react to not having Board-level points of contact at the AIIB
headquarters year round and how that will manifest in member country capitals. There could be calls for
Board residency. Despite frequent denials, MDBs are fundamentally political
institutions. It is difficult to make decisions for vice presidents based purely on merit at that level.
Its hard to see how political factors could ever be totally excluded. This is true at the ADB. The
AIIB got its first taste of this when a European government assumed it would
receive one of the two VP slots that Europe was to get and it wound up going
to another. That capital thought it looked like a classic bait and switch. And already friction ensued. I
see many potentially positive outcomes with the AIIB . Infrastructure demands in developing
Asia far outstrip what the ADB and World Bank can provide so another player,
governed correctly, should be a[n] welcome addition. Ultimately, it will have
to be private capital that provides the lions share of the developmental and
infrastructure tools, but MDBs can send signals of stability and safer
investment returns to private investorssort of good housekeeping seals.
Conditional collaboration? Will collaboration between the ADB and AIIB be driven by governance
as both institutions develop a
conditionality? In the beginning, at least, my sense is yes,
better sense of how the AIIBs governance model will uphold adequate
safeguards that are vital to the ADB and, for that matter, the World Bank. It is
critically important for all MDBs to coordinate. It wont happen all the time as there may
be policy preferences that are different. The ADB may have a stricter code on environmental issues than
will the AIIB. Healthy competition between the two banks is not a bad thing and can act as a catalyst for
the existence of the AIIB will push the ADB to
important reforms in each institution. I think
widen and deepen reforms, which many stakeholders have advocated for
years. Competition can enhance that. It can act to improve the effectiveness of
safeguard regimes and the projects themselves. In the end, we will all benefit.

CP solves better than the case provides more money for

infrastructure development in key regions such as the
SCS, AIIB lacks funds & cant solve
Talley, 15 (3/22/15, Wall Street Journal (Online), U.S. Looks to Work With
China-Led Infrastructure Fund; Obama administration proposes co-financing
projects with new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, Proquest database
LK)
The World Bank, forged out of World War II, remains the leading international
development institution with 188 nations as members. But others have
emerged amid concerns about drawing more investment and attention to fast-growing regions.
Those include the Asian Development Bank, the African Development Bank, European
Investment Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank. The banks' loans are designed
to foster infrastructure and development projects that are often high-risk and long-term,
helping to lower the costs for governments that couldn't afford borrowing from the private sector. For the
most powerful lending countries, they cultivate regional growth prospects and can provide a political tool
for influencing smaller countries. Beijing has struggled to increase its influence within
the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank and the world's emergency
lender, the International Monetary Fund. But as the founder and one of the new bank's
largest shareholders, it will have the greatest say in which projects to pick . Infrastructure
needs around the world are enormous. Emerging countries need new ports, railways,
bridges, airports and roads to support faster growth. Developed economies, meanwhile,
must replace aging infrastructure. The Asian Development Bank
estimates its region alone faces an annual financing shortfall of $800
billion a year. The consulting firm McKinsey & Company estimates global infrastructure-investment
 the Asian Development Bank has just
needs through 2030 total $57 trillion. By comparison,
$160 billion in capital and the World Bank-which has co-financed with other
regional institutions for years--has around $500 billion. The China-led bank
plans to have a $50 billion fund to start. "We have every intention of sharing
knowledge and co-investing in projects throughout Asia," said Mr. Kim, who was
picked by President Barack Obama in 2012 as the U.S. nominee to lead the World Bank. "From the
perspective simply of the need for more infrastructure spending, there's no
doubt that we welcome the entry of the Asian Infrastructure Investment
Bank," Mr. Kim said.
2NC Solvency
 Overview/Explanation
Co-financing maintains the authority of US-led MDBs and upholds the
existing international order while forcing a Chinese acceptance of the
world order and not allowing for the AIIB to replace, prevents Chinese
hegemonic rise
US still asserts its dominance over China (so no link to Containment)
while boosting US-China coop by means of co-financing its
infrastructure projects.
 Multilat
CP solves the case More US supported co-financing will
strengthen multilateral ties and prevent Chinese
hegemonic rise
Talley, 15 (3/22/15, Wall Street Journal (Online), U.S. Looks to Work With
China-Led Infrastructure Fund; Obama administration proposes co-financing
projects with new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, Proquest database
LK)
Obama administration, facing defiance by allies that have signed up
WASHINGTON--The
to support a new Chinese-led infrastructure fund, is proposing that the bank
work in a partnership with Washington-backed development institutions, such
as the World Bank. The collaborative approach is designed to steer the new
bank toward economic aims of the world's leading economies and away from
becoming an instrument of Beijing's foreign policy. The bank's potential to promote new
alliances and sidestep existing institutions has been one of the Obama administration's chief concerns as
key allies including the U.K., Germany and France lined up in recent days to become founding members of
Obama administration wants to use existing
the new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. The
development banks to co-finance projects with Beijing's new organization .
Indirect support would help the U.S. address another long-standing goal: ensuring the
new institution's standards are designed to prevent unhealthy debt buildups,
human-rights abuses and environmental risks. U.S. support could also pave
the way for American companies to bid on the new bank's projects. "The
U.S. would welcome new multilateral institutions that strengthen the
international financial architecture," said Nathan Sheets, U.S. Treasury
Under Secretary for International Affairs. "Co-financing projects with existing
institutions like the World Bank or the Asian Development Bank will help
ensure that high quality, time-tested standards are maintained." Mr. Sheets
argues that co-financed projects would ensure the bank complements rather
than competes with existing institutions. If the new bank were to adopt the same
governance and operational standards, he said, it could both bolster the international financial system and
help meet major infrastructure-investment gaps. No decision has been made by the new Chinese-led bank
about whether it will partner with existing multilateral development banks, as the facility is still being
formed, thoughco-financing is unlikely to face opposition from U.S. allies . Zhu
Haiquan, a spokesman at China's embassy in Washington, said Beijing is open
to collaboration with the existing institutions and that the new bank "is built
in the spirit of openness and inclusiveness and will follow high standards. "It
will effectively cooperate with and complement the existing multilateral development banks such as the
World Bank and the Asian Development Bank to provide investment and financing for the infrastructure
World Bank President Jim Yong Kim said through a spokesman that
building in Asia," he said.
he and his lieutenants are already in "deep discussions" with the new Asian
Infrastructure Investment Bank "on how we can closely work together." The
U.S. suffered a diplomatic embarrassment last week after several of its key European allies publicly
rebuffed Washington's pleas to snub Beijing's invitations to join the bank and instead said they would be
founding members.Backing the new bank through co-financing could also help
the U.S. move past the diplomatic mess, reunite with its trans-Atlantic
allies on this issue and counter any perceptions that the U.S. is wholly opposed to the institution
as part of a China-containment strategy. "Our concern has always been...will it adhere to the kinds of high
standards that the international financial institutions have developed?" U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew
told U.S. lawmakers last week.Co-financing, combined with European membership,
"will make it more likely this institution largely conforms to the international
standards," said Matthew Goodman, an Asia expert at the Center for Strategic and
International Studies adviser and former economics director at the U.S. National
Security Council.

Co-financing will solve --- helps ensure China will be a

responsible stakeholder in international affairs
Dr. Kawai, 15 --- Professor at the University of Tokyos Graduate School of
Public Policy (last modified on 8/7/2015, Masahiro Kawai, ASIAN
INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT BANK: CHINA AS RESPONSIBLE
STAKEHOLDER?, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank in the Evolving
International Financial Order, http://spfusa.org/wp-
content/uploads/2015/07/AIIB-Report_4web.pdf, downloaded 6/1/16, JMP)
The skeptical view sees Chinas potential to use AIIB as an instrument for:
undermining existing MDBs particularly the World Bank and ADB by
adopting low standards in running the bank; alleviating its own economic
problems of excess capacity, slow growth, and energy and resource
insecurity; and expanding its geopolitical sphere of influence in Asia through
the One Belt, One Road initiative.
From this perspective, it would be prudent for Japan (and, for that matter, the
United States) to judge if AIIB will serve as a productive bank that facilitates
the provision of international public goods, or as a bank that mainly serves
Chinas economic and geopolitical interests. Japan, together with the United
States, needs to see if AIIB will be run as a financially sound bank, whose
operations include adequate environmental and social safeguards.
Given the lessons from IDBs collaboration with CAF and other sub-regional
MDBs in Latin America, encouraging the World Bank and ADB to work with
AIIB is the right course. It is in the best interest of the international
community to pull China and AIIB into the existing international financial
order and help make China a responsible international stakeholder .
 Empirics
ADB co-financing with the AIIB in Pakistan proves
solvency co-financing K2 coop, econ, and enviro
ADB 6-10-16 (ADB Approves First Cofinancing with AIIB for a Pakistan
Road Project Asian Development Bank: 67 members - 48 from within Asia
and the Pacific and 19 outside; News Release, June 10, 2016,
http://www.adb.org/news/adb-approves-first-cofinancing-aiib-pakistan-road-
project - LK)
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) today approved a $100
MANILA, PHILIPPINES
million loan for a highway project in Pakistan that will mark its first
cofinancing with the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). AIIB will provide a
$100 million loan subject to its board approval later this month. The United Kingdoms Department for
ADB as the
International Development (DFID) has also committed a $34 million grant for the project.
lead financier will administer both the AIIB loan and the DFID grant. This is a
historic milestone for ADB and AIIB as we jointly aim to meet the
pressing infrastructure needs in Asia and the Pacific region, said ADB
President Takehiko Nakao. The project has strategic value to Pakistan as it supports
north-south connectivity, new trade, and business opportunities, which will
boost jobs and cut poverty. The project is also an integral part of the Central
Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) corridor s. ADB and AIIB have
been preparing projects for cofinancing since last year. A
memorandum of understanding for collaboration was signed by Mr. Nakao
and AIIB President Liqun Jin at the time of ADBs Annual Meeting in Frankfurt,
Germany in early May. This project will fund the remaining 64-kilometer (km) long four-lane section of the
The project
M-4 National Motorway connecting Shorkot and Khanewal in Punjab province.
constitutes a key part of a 1,800 km CAREC transport corridor linking the port city of
Karachi in the south, to major primary production and population centers
including Lahore, Faisalabad, Islamabad and Peshawar , and on to Torkham on the
northern border with Afghanistan. ADB, based in Manila, is dedicated to reducing
poverty in Asia and the Pacific through inclusive economic growth,
environmentally sustainable growth, and regional integration. Established in 1966,
ADB in December 2016 will mark 50 years of development partnership in the region. It is owned by 67
In 2015, ADB assistance totaled $27.2 billion, including
members48 from the region.
cofinancing of $10.7 billion.

Co-financing boosts multilateral relations, including China

coop BRICS proves and US trying to join
Mehler, et al. 14 (Africa Yearbook Volume 10: Politics, Economy and
Society South of the Sahara ... Editors: Andreas Mehler is Director of the Arnold-Bergstraesser-
Instituts, Freiburg and Professor for Developmental Theory and Development Policy at the University Freiburg; Henning
Melber is Senior Advisor and Director Emeritus of the Dag Hammarskjld Foundation. He directed the Dag Hammarskjld
Foundation from 2006 to 2012. Henning has served as Senior Lecturer in International Relations at Kassel University,
Director of the Namibian Economic Policy Research Unit in Windhoek, and Research Director of the Nordic Africa Institute
in Uppsala. Henning is an Extraordinary Professor at the University of Pretoria and at the Centre for Africa Studies of the
University of the Free State in Bloemfontein. He is also a member of the Civil Society Reflection Group on Global
Development Perspectives. He holds a PhD in Political Sciences and Development Studies; Klaas van Walraven is a
historian and political scientist working on West Africa, in particular Niger. He is co-editor of the Africa Yearbook: Politics,
Economy and Society South of the Sahara, together with Andreas Mehler (Institute of African Affairs, Hamburg) and
Henning Melber (Dag Hammarskjld Foundation, Uppsala). In the past, he also wrote on issues concerning
democratisation and electoral politics. His original focus of study was on Africas international relations . Published
2014, Accessed on e-books, https://books.google.com/books?
id=aovPBAAAQBAJ&pg=PA510&lpg=PA510&dq=co+financing+strengthens+relations&source
=bl&ots=fj2QzZ9ORh&sig=yL_ul8-
Vz_n77AK1zl072rJOsPM&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiY4ozL0uTNAhVLWywKHTYnBaoQ6AEIJTA
B#v=onepage&q=co%20financing%20strengthens%20relations&f=false - LK)

In addition, two agreements were initiated under the BRICS interbank cooperation mechanism: the
BRICS Multilateral Infrastructure Co-Financing Agreement for Africa , which
paved the way for the establishment of co-financing arrangements for
infrastructure projects across the African continent ; and the BRICS Multilateral
Cooperation and Co-Financing Agreement for Sustainable Development, to
explore the drawing up of bilateral agreements aimed at establishing
cooperation and co-financing arrangements, specifically around
sustainable development and green economy elements . Critics, however, were less
than flattering about Pretoria acting as an interlocutor between the BRICS and Africa, especially since
two BRICS countries had formulated their own bilateral and regional
arrangements with African governments through interstate for a, such as the
India-Africa Forum Summit and the Forum on China-Africa Coop eration. The test
for Pretoria would be to assess its achievements as chair of the forum and against a very broad action plan
underpinned by meetings and consultations without any substantive outputs. At the end of June,
President Obama visited South Africa as part of a three-country African state
trip. The purpose of the visit was to meet with leaders from business,
government and civil society with a view to: reinforcing relations with
Washington; expanding economic growth, investment, and trade relations;
strengthening democratic institutions; and investing in the next generation of
African leaders. For both Pretoria and Washington, the visit was seen as critical in
identifying and reaffirming economic opportunities.

Germany proves co-financing improves multilateralism

and capital in emerging markets
Wezel 4 (Does Co-Financing by Multilateral Development Banks Increase
Risky Direct Investment in Emerging Markets? Evidence for German
Banking FDI Deutsche Bundesbank, Torsten Wezel is an Economist at the
IMF, and previously worked for the Deutsche Bundesbank and European
Central Bank, and graduate of WHU Otto Beisheim School of Management;
PDF accessed, https://www.bis.org/publ/cgfs22bubaw2.pdf - LK)
For the given set of German banking FDI projects in emerging markets the estimation
outcome verifies the hypothesized positive impact of having a multilateral
development bank acquire a stake in the foreign business venture . German
firms benefiting from co-financing on part of a multilateral agency have,
compared to their non-sponsored counterparts, invested a significantly higher amount of
equity capital on average (in absolute terms or relative to project size) that is subject to the risk
of expropriation or similarly harmful measures instigated by the foreign government. It is the
exposure to these specific political risks that the novel endogenous variable
of a sovereign risk-adjusted capital position seeks to capture. Moreover, the
matching approach has been shown to provide meaningfully different results than a simple comparison
over across-group averages.
 Heg
CP preserves US-led institutions and global governance,
keeping the current global order and regional stability
while preventing Chinese hegemony doesnt link to the
DA
Frost, 14 --- Senior Advisor at the East-West Centers Washington, D.C.,
office and a Visiting Distinguished Research Fellow at the National Defense
Universitys Institute for National Strategic Studies (December, Ellen L, Rival
Regionalisms and Regional Order: A Slow Crisis of Legitimacy,
http://www.nbr.org/publications/specialreport/pdf/free/021115/SR48.pdf LK)
Conclusions: Restoring Legitimacy and Direction to Asias Regional Institutions

The world is not yet witnessing the end of a stable Pacific, to quote Robert Kaplans dramatic prediction.53 No matter how their structure is
designed or how many economies they encompass, regional institutions that exclude the United States will not replace U.S. power as a key
organizing force. No other government can bring such massive resources to the table.

The real problem is not U.S. weakness, but a slow crisis of

legitimacy that diminishes the perceived value of both U.S.
leadership and U.S.-backed institutions. The erosion of
regional order in Asia threatens both the future stability of the
region and global governance. Both China and the United States attach
great value to regional stability, but they are on different paths. The
trend toward fragmentation and rival regionalisms calls for overcoming
organizational stovepipes and launching serious strategic thinking
and action on the part of the president and his White House aides,
leading policymakers in executive branch departments and agencies,
and congressional leaders. Unfortunately, top foreign policymakers in Washington are currently hobbled by budgetary constraints and
congressional roadblocks and distracted by crises in the Middle East, Ukraine, and West Africa (Ebola). Except for China, Asia is on hold. In addition, domestic political
action during much of 2015 and 2016 will be consumed by the November 2016 presidential election. Asian friends of the United States know that these swings in the
United States reputation and leadership come and go. (Recall, for example, the hand-wringing accompanying Japans economic rise in the 1980s.) They are right, but

steps should be taken now to stem the emerging fragmentation of

regional and global order and put U.S. influence on sounder footing. The
Obama administration has made some important moves, and President Obamas personal interest in Southeast Asia and willingness to travel there have helped re-
establish the United States as an active and constructive player. But that is not enough. Stalled trade legislation, sluggish growth in most Western economies, Chinas
mixed behavior in the region, U.S. political dysfunction, and the difficulty of winding down U.S. military engagement in the Middle East call for U.S. action on several fronts.

There are legitimate reasons why rival

Revive and Reform Global Institutions While Making Way for New Ones

regionalisms have emerged. It is both ridiculous and shameful that

developing countries remain underrepresented in existing regional and
global institutions such as the IMF and the ADB. The major powers governing such institutions should
adopt institutional arrangements that rectify this imbalance and adopt voting reforms without conditions. The White House should make the case for reforming both the

The resurgence of Chinas political and

IMF and the ADB along these lines in broad strategic terms.

economic influence in Asia is a fact of life. The United States should not
automatically oppose Chinas effort to create new organizations,
particularly the AIIB. Nor should it try to persuade like-minded allies and
partners to stay on the sidelines. They have their own concerns that are similar to Washingtons. Instead, U.S. officials should
continue to ask questions about governance and adopt a wait-and-see approach. In the case of the AIIB, for instance, it is appropriate to question whether the AIIB will
conduct high-quality project evaluation, practice open procurement, take into account environmental and social concerns, recruit staff on the basis of merit, submit to
thorough auditing, adopt safeguards against corruption and fraud, and adhere to transparent policies and procedures.54 Act Like a Leader Domestic political
dysfunction inflicts a high cost on U.S. foreign policy and national security. The failure thus far to ratify UNCLOS strikes other countries as senseless and hypocritical,
especially since the U.S. Navy claims to observe it. Likewise, inaction on IMF reform has contributed directly to the emergence of rival regionalisms. The absence of trade
promotion authority damages not only the credibility of U.S. negotiators in the TPP negotiations but also U.S. leadership more generally. Top-level administration officials
must appeal to a broader congressional audience by going beyond issue-specific, conventional arguments and instead making the case for ratification of UNCLOS and the
TPP and passage of TPA on broad strategic grounds. Executive branch officials, especially the president, must also do a better job of explaining what the rebalancing
strategy means and why allocating more budgetary resources and nonmilitary personnel to the Asia-Pacific makes sense, even at a time when parts of the Middle East are

Asian leaders will only believe in the U.S. rebalancing strategy

again in flames.

when they see it in action. But resources remain limited, and the policy
toolbox is still heavily weighted toward military hardware and joint
military exercises. American men and women in uniform vastly outnumber civilian officials. One goal of the rebalancing strategy is to reduce this
huge gap and bolster the United States political, economic, cultural, and diplomatic presence. The administration must fight more actively and at a higher level to obtain

The
congressional approval for the necessary resourcesand resist calls to divert them to the Middle East. Only the president can decide on such trade-offs.

United States may not be able or willing to fund major physical infrastructure projects comparable to those funded by China and, presumably, by the new AIIB, but it
can do more to build up Asias soft infrastructure. One example is
expanded English-language instruction, which would have a direct
economic effect in poorer ASEAN countries. Although more people are learning Mandarin, English is still the
language of not only international business but also science and technology. Further expansion of visiting fellowships for students and young professionals is another
relatively low-cost way of restoring the United States image as a generous leader. Good will is a strategic asset. Reinvigorate APECs Vision The United States should
take advantage of upcoming and future APEC summits to restore APECs role as an incubator of big ideas.55 Following former president Clintons example, the U.S.
president and his or her top lieutenants should recommit the United States to an FTAAP and express appreciation for Chinas support of this initiative. He or she should
explain to American audiences why this goal makes sense and where the TPP fits in this vision. Corresponding measures to improve employment prospects at home should
be a core part of this strategy. U.S. officials should not appear to be blocking Chinas effort to promote an FTAAP, because doing so feeds Chinese perceptions that the
United States wants to contain China. They are correct, however, that near-term conclusion of the TPP should take priority. At the 2014 APEC heads-of-state meeting in
Beijing, the United States warded off a feasibility study of the FTAAP, which would formally set the FTAAP in motion, and accepted the establishment of a strategic
study as a face-saving concession to Beijing. Carrying out the study groups mandate will be a low-profile, time-consuming job for trade experts. More months will pass as
APEC member governments study the results and discuss them with affected interest groups. Top-level leaders will not be involved for at least several years. Build on
Shared Strategic Interests and Continue to Contribute to Public Goods The postwar history of U.S.-led regional institutions underscores the importance of shared
strategic purpose. During the Cold War, opposition to the spread of Communism was the glue holding U.S.-led regional institutions together; when top-priority strategies
diverged, the organizations lost their unifying purpose. In todays Asia, all governments see constructive, mutually beneficial U.S.-China relations as a necessary
foundation of stability and growth. But beyond those basics, strategic interests differ. U.S. leadership is most effective when Washington avoids dueling with China or
imposing a grand strategy on the governments of the region and instead assigns equipment and personnel to noncontroversial, relatively nonpolitical areas such as health
and maritime safety. Progress in these fields is as important to the United States as to Asia and should be pursued even if allies and partners engage in free riding (which

Beijing gets credit from other governments for not telling

most of them probably will).

them what they should do, but the flip side of that stance is that no
one knows what Chinas ultimate goals in the region are. What goes on
in regional institutions, new or old, conforms to this pattern. There are
strong reasons to believe that China seeks to establish itself
as the dominant power in Asia while diminishing the role of the
United States as an external balancer. But how and toward what end does it hope to achieve this outcome? How far will the
United States go to accommodate a stronger China? The answers to these questions will have enormous bearing on the norms, composition, tasks, and future
achievements of regional institutions.
 SCS
ADB and World Bank co-financing with the AIIB is key to
resolve SCS disputes --- will force the AIIBs hand to
engage in co-financing, and provides twice the amount of
money for infrastructure
Taggart, 6/10/16 (Stewart, Chinas AIIB Voting Structure: South China
Sea Pressure Point? http://grenatec.com/chinas-aiib-voting-structure-south-
china-sea-pressure-point/ - LK)
Can the Asian Infrastructure Investment Banks (AIIB) voting structure moderate Chinese territorial
assertiveness in the South China Sea? Its an intriguing idea. AIIB votes require a 76% majority. China
holds 25% of the votes. Despite this Chinese veto, the AIIBs other shareholders can make a very strong
statement. The reason: the AIIBs professed independence from Chinese Communist Party control would
be severely questioned if China overruled other AIIB members. China wont want that. On the other hand:
the South China Sea is the Elephant in the Room with the AIIB. Given
Chinas increasing political isolation regarding its Nine-Dotted Line claim to
the entire South China Sea, China could use a political escape hatch . Suitably
united, the AIIBs other countries can provide it. The escape hatch would be for the AIIB to
fund infrastructure that can be used to service Joint Development Areas in
the South China Sea. These JDAs could be created in contested areas off
Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia and Taiwan. Oil, gas, methane hydrates, renewable
energy and even fisheries within the JDAs could then be jointly developed by Chinese and Southeast Asian
energy and fisheries companies. The beauty of JDAs is that countries with contesting claims to a proposed
offshore agree to set those territorial claims aside indefinitely while they cooperate to develop the
resources within the contested areas. Final territorial determination is postponed until far down the track.
All countries in the
At that point the stakes are lower because the resources have been developed.
region including China publicly support the concept of joint
development as a means of reducing risk of war in the South China Sea .
Given this, no one would be seen as backing down. Successful JDAs exist all over the
world. Three have operated successfully for decades in the Gulf of Thailand, adjacent to the South China
Sea. Therefore,Southeast Asias AIIB members, along with the AIIBs European members and
South Korea,could unite behind proposals for AIIB funding of the Association of
Southeast Asian Nation States (ASEAN) proposed Trans-ASEAN Gas Pipeline (TAGP) and
Trans-ASEAN Electricity Grid (TAEG). If China dug in its heels in opposition,
presumably due to conflict with its Nine-Dotted Line territorial claim, China
could probably muster 47% of the AIIBs votes in support of its position.
Support would likely come from Russia and the AIIBs Central Asian countries and Middle Eastern
European Union members of the AIIB would almost certainly unite in
countries.
favor of JDAs, along with South Korea and the AIIBs ASEAN members
themselves. Together, these would amount to another 47%. In other words, a
virtual tie. Turkey, Brazil and South Africa would represent wild card votes. In the end, such a
vote would offer only a pyrrhic victory for either side. It could open up such
large political divisions within the AIIB that the organization breaks apart. No
one wants that. To date, Chinas underestimated the blow back from its geopolitical over-reach in
the South China Sea. Its been made worse by Chinas domestic propaganda machine. Its been using the
South China Sea as a distracting nationalistic lightning rod to shift attention from issues like needed reform
The AIIB is an important
of domestic residency laws (the hoku system) pollution and corruption.
symbol for the Communist Party that Chinas emergence as a global player
represents the ripening fruit of decades of personal sacrifice by the Chinese
people. While its an overstretch to call the AIIB it a vanity project for China
it is something close. Given this, China will work hard to keep
controversial items off the AIIBs agenda. This gives other members an
avenue for getting Chinas attention that other avenues like appeals to UN
Tribunals havent. Happily, the issue of the South China Sea need not be framed in such naked
political terms. If the AIIB shies away from funding compelling infrastructure
projects in Southeast Asia like the TAGP and TAEG, others can step in.
These include the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the World Bank, the Green
Climate Fund and even Japans $200 billion export infrastructure
fund which alone boasts twice the capital of the AIIB. If these
organizations worked together to fund a common plan in the South China Sea
and share funding, the AIIBs hand could be forced. This would be
particularly so if the AIIB were internally divided along the voting lines
outlined above. The big issue here isnt a zero-sum involving one side or the other prevailing over
the legality/acceptability of Chinas Nine Dotted Line. The bigger issue is the preparation of the world
economy for the 21st Century. That means building out the infrastructure to enable more of Asias people
to join the global economy and to enable Asias economies (like everywhere) to progressively decarbonize
Given this, joint development in
and more sustainably steward their resources like fisheries.
the South China Sea can set a crucial precedent benefitting everyone
particularly China. Joint infrastructure in the region serving joint development
areas would represent a crucial first piece of Chinas own proposed One Belt,
One Road concept of deepening cross-border interconnections between Asias
economies. Taking this a few steps further State Grid Corp of China, Chinas
electricity power line state champion, envisages a global electricity grid by
2050. That idea isnt farfetched at all. Reaching agreement on core elements of
such networks in the next 10 years can put the world economy on the kind of
multi-decade economic trajectory that can increase wealth, pay the future
income streams to fund aging global populations and solve climate
change. Whats needed is to get global institutions and the worlds countries
in greater alignment. They can start in the South China Sea.
 Generic Case
U.S. is willing to work with the AIIB through co-financing
solves US-China cooperation
Fackler, 15 (3/31/15, Martin, New York Times (Online), Japan, Sticking
With U.S., Says It Won't Join China-Led Bank, Proquest database, JMP)
In a speech in San Francisco on Tuesday, the American Treasury secretary,
Jacob J. Lew, said that the United States was willing to work with an
institution like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, so long as it was
accompanied by high governance standards and worked alongside existing
international organizations.
"I was encouraged by my conversations in Beijing in which China's leaders
made clear that they aspire to meet high standards and welcome
partnership," he said.
He added that "having the A.I.I.B. cofinance projects with existing
institutions will help demonstrate a commitment to the highest
standards of governance, environmental and social safeguards, and
debt sustainability."

ADB & AIIB can cooperate

M2 Presswire, 5/2/16 (ADB, AIIB Sign MOU To Strengthen Cooperation
for Sustainable Growth, Proquest database, JMP)
FRANKFURT, GERMANY - Asian Development Bank (ADB) President Takehiko Nakao and Asian
Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) President Liqun Jin signed a memorandum of
understanding (MOU) here today on the sidelines of ADB's 49th Annual Meeting of the Board of
Governors. The agreement sets the stage for jointly financing projects.
ADB and AIIB are already discussing projects for cofinancing in the road and
water sectors. The first of these projects is expected to be Pakistan's M4 highway project, a 64-
kilometer stretch of motorway connecting Shorkot to Khanewal in Punjab Province. ADB and AIIB
agreed to strengthen cooperation, including cofinancing , at the strategic and
technical levels on the basis of complementarity, value added, institutional
strengths and comparative advantages, and mutual benefit , the MOU states. "I am
very pleased to have this framework of collaboration with a new and strong partner in Asia," said Mr.
Nakao. "ADB has been working closely with AIIB throughout its establishment process. We will further
strengthen our cooperation in promoting sustainable growth, reducing poverty, and combatting climate
change in the region." "I am delighted to take a further step forward in our partnership with ADB," Mr. Jin
said. "AIIB looks forward to deepening our already strong relationship and expanding our collaboration as
Through
we seek to address the significant infrastructure financing needs in the Asia region."
cofinancing, knowledge work, and joint policy dialogue with member
countries, the two institutions will work together in the areas including
energy, transportation, telecommunications, rural and agriculture
development, water, urban development, and environmental protection. The
two institutions will undertake regular high-level consultations and
joint data collection to promote the implementation of the Sustainable
Development Goals and the COP21 climate agreement. ADB, based in Manila, is
dedicated to reducing poverty in Asia and the Pacific through inclusive economic growth, environmentally
sustainable growth, and regional integration. Established in 1966, ADB in December 2016 will mark 50
years of development partnership in the region. It is owned by 67 members-48 from the region. In 2015,
ADB assistance totaled $27.2 billion, including cofinancing of $10.7 billion. AIIB, located in Beijing, is a
multilateral development bank that focuses on the development of infrastructure and other productive
sectors in Asia, including energy and power, transportation and telecommunications, rural infrastructure
and agriculture development, water supply and sanitation, environmental protection, urban development
and logistics.

Co-financing solves cooperation

Wu, 4/15/16 (Wendy, AIIB and World Bank reach deal on joint projects, as
China-led lender prepares to approve US$1.2 billion of funds this year,
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/1935932/aiib-
and-world-bank-reach-deal-joint-projects-china-led, CMR)
The Beijing-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the US-dominated
World Bank originally seen as rivals have signed an agreement to co-
finance projects. As part of the deal signed on Thursday which comes as the AIIB prepares to
announce its first batch of loans the two banks are discussing nearly a dozen jointly
financed projects in sectors including transport, water and energy in Central Asia, South Asia, and
East Asia. The AIIB is expected to begin lending from the second quarter of this year, after its high-profile
inauguration in January. Chinas Asian neighbours, such as Pakistan, are expected to benefit. The two
banks said the AIIB expected to approve US$1.2 billion in funds for development projects this year, with a
sizeable share expected to go on joint projects with the World Bank. Taiwan says it will not join Beijing-led
AIIB after rejecting condition that violates dignity Jin Liqun ( ), president of the AIIB, said the bank
was cooperating with both the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in approving the first
a huge amount of chemistry has already
batch of co-financed projects in June. I would say
been nurtured between the AIIB and the World Bank, the AIIB and the ADB ,
Xinhua quoted him as saying at an event hosted by the Asia Society Policy Institute in Washington
yesterday. The Beijing-led infrastructure bank has 57 members, but some major developed nations,
including the United States and Japan, have not joined. Its establishment was seen as an attempt by
Beijing to rival the World Bank and the ADB, which is presided over by Japan. Critics have expressed
concerns over whether the operation of the AIIB is transparent and up to international standards. Jim Yong
Kim, president of the World Bank, said the joint agreement was an important first step towards working
with a new partner to address the worlds huge infrastructure needs. The World Bank said it would
prepare and supervise the co-financed projects in accordance with its policies in areas such as
Yin, an associate professor with the
procurement, environment and social safeguards. Chu
University of International Relations in Beijing, said the banks cooperation was a
move to dispel doubts over the AIIB. China has strong competence in infrastructure
construction and is rich in capital, he said. But it lacks the ability to manage the funds and is short of
experience in communicating with foreign governments to process the projects. Therefore, it needs to
leverage others strengths. AIIB chief wants Hong Kong to raise and manage funds for lender Paul Haenle,
the agreement showed that the
director of the Carnegie-Tsinghua Centre for Global Policy, said
AIIB wanted to be part of the global financing system, rather than create a
new one. What Jin wants to do is to make sure the AIIB becomes a part of the
existing structure of multinational development banks , he said. But I think there is a
financial aspect too. [The two banks] cannot fund everything by themselves. They both need partners,
[and are] looking to private partnerships and also other multinational banks, too. The AIIB plans to hold a
board meeting at the end of this month to discuss procedures for new members. Canadian officials have
said they are looking closely at joining. Last month, asked about the possible entry of the US and Japan,
Jin said we are very patient and added that the bank was open and inclusive.
 AT: Squo Solves
The ADB, World Bank, and IMF have never all co-financed
with the AIIB, especially not in East Asia, AND
The only Squo co-financing is just the ADB with the AIIB in
Pakistan, not in China or the SCS, but proves feasibility
for increased future co-financing
ADB 6-10-16 (ADB Approves First Cofinancing with AIIB for a Pakistan
Road Project Asian Development Bank: 67 members - 48 from within Asia
and the Pacific and 19 outside; News Release, June 10, 2016,
http://www.adb.org/news/adb-approves-first-cofinancing-aiib-pakistan-road-
project - LK)
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) today approved a $100
MANILA, PHILIPPINES
million loan for a highway project in Pakistan that will mark its first
cofinancing with the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). AIIB will provide a
$100 million loan subject to its board approval later this month. The United Kingdoms Department for
ADB as the
International Development (DFID) has also committed a $34 million grant for the project.
lead financier will administer both the AIIB loan and the DFID grant. This is a
historic milestone for ADB and AIIB as we jointly aim to meet the
pressing infrastructure needs in Asia and the Pacific region, said ADB
President Takehiko Nakao. The project has strategic value to Pakistan as it supports
north-south connectivity, new trade, and business opportunities, which will
boost jobs and cut poverty. The project is also an integral part of the Central
Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) corridor s. ADB and AIIB have
been preparing projects for cofinancing since last year. A
memorandum of understanding for collaboration was signed by Mr. Nakao
and AIIB President Liqun Jin at the time of ADBs Annual Meeting in Frankfurt,
Germany in early May. This project will fund the remaining 64-kilometer (km) long four-lane section of the
The project
M-4 National Motorway connecting Shorkot and Khanewal in Punjab province.
constitutes a key part of a 1,800 km CAREC transport corridor linking the port city of
Karachi in the south, to major primary production and population centers
including Lahore, Faisalabad, Islamabad and Peshawar , and on to Torkham on the
northern border with Afghanistan. ADB, based in Manila, is dedicated to reducing
poverty in Asia and the Pacific through inclusive economic growth,
environmentally sustainable growth, and regional integration. Established in 1966,
ADB in December 2016 will mark 50 years of development partnership in the region. It is owned by 67
In 2015, ADB assistance totaled $27.2 billion, including
members48 from the region.
cofinancing of $10.7 billion.
 AT: Permutation
1. Cant perm CP is mutually exclusive The CP
maintains US-led MDBs and the existing international
order over the AIIB and Chinas push for new
organizations, forcing Chinas hand
2. Perm links to the DA engages China on a soft-line
strat that enables the AIIB to rise over existing financial
institutions plan is seen as appeasement by the U.S.

3. Joining the AIIB bad shifts power to China from the US

Orr, 5/4/16 --- US ambassador to the Asian Development Bank from 2010 to
2016 and is a member of the Pacific Forum CSIS Board (Robert M., PacNet
#39 - The Asian Development Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment
Bank: conditional collaboration? https://www.csis.org/analysis/pacnet-39-
asian-development-bank-and-asian-infrastructure-investment-bank-
conditional - LK)
Creation of the Chinese-sponsored Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) has won considerable
Some view the establishment
attention in many capitals, particularly in Washington and Tokyo.
of the AIIB as a challenge to the supremacy of the post-World War II Bretton Woods
order. Others see it as a symbol of shifting regional power in Asia. Some have
deep concerns about the AIIBs willingness to adhere to international
safeguards and open procurement. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) Washington
and Tokyo were less than thrilled with the creation of the AIIB to say the least.
Ironically, this is not the first time the US questioned the establishment of a
Multilateral Development Bank (MDB) in Asia. While the ADB has come to be regarded by
many as a Japanese-American bank, there were voices in Washington that opposed the ADB prior to its
the State Department
creation in 1966. Treasury Secretary C. Douglas Dillon and others in
feared that a new regional MDB would act as a financial resource lamprey to
a more established institution like the World Bank.
 AT: CP Links to the DA
Joining the AIIB shifts power to China from the US, CP
avoids
Orr, 5/4/16 --- US ambassador to the Asian Development Bank from 2010 to
2016 and is a member of the Pacific Forum CSIS Board (Robert M., PacNet
#39 - The Asian Development Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment
Bank: conditional collaboration? https://www.csis.org/analysis/pacnet-39-
asian-development-bank-and-asian-infrastructure-investment-bank-
conditional - LK)
Creation of the Chinese-sponsored Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) has won considerable
Some view the establishment
attention in many capitals, particularly in Washington and Tokyo.
of the AIIB as a challenge to the supremacy of the post-World War II Bretton Woods
order. Others see it as a symbol of shifting regional power in Asia. Some have
deep concerns about the AIIBs willingness to adhere to international
safeguards and open procurement. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) Washington
and Tokyo were less than thrilled with the creation of the AIIB to say the least.
Ironically, this is not the first time the US questioned the establishment of a
Multilateral Development Bank (MDB) in Asia. While the ADB has come to be regarded by
many as a Japanese-American bank, there were voices in Washington that opposed the ADB prior to its
the State Department
creation in 1966. Treasury Secretary C. Douglas Dillon and others in
feared that a new regional MDB would act as a financial resource lamprey to
a more established institution like the World Bank.
 Aff Answers
CP links to the DA co-financing is engagement
Wildau 16 (Japan and China-led development banks plan joint loan
Financial Times, Gabriel Wildau is a Reuters correspondent whose work has
been published by the New York Times, and is also the Beijing bureau chief of
the China Economic Quarterly; MARCH 21, 2016,
https://next.ft.com/content/15ec1210-ef55-11e5-a609-e9f2438ee05b - LK)
The Asian Development Bank is set to work with the Asian Infrastructure
Investment Bank on a loan project as the two seek to counter perceptions
they are rivals, the ADB chief said on Monday. The China-led AIIB is also consulting
with the ADB, which is dominated by Japan and the US , on procedures to ensure loan
projects include labour, environmental and anti-corruption safeguards , Takehiko Nakao, ADB
president, said in an interview. People want to depict ADB and AIIB as rivals and
[AIIB president] Mr Jin [Liqun] and I as rivals. But actually we are friends, and
ADB and AIIB can be partners, said Mr Nakao. Were already identifying projects for the
first batch of AIIB loans. One of them should be co-financing between AIIB and ADB.
China launched the AIIB last year, with 57 countries joining as founding members despite US objections.
The bank was an effort to increase Chinas influence in multilateral
institutions after years of grumbling that the International Monetary Fund,
World Bank and ADB were dominated by developed economies , analysts said.
Japan has held the ADB presidency since the bank was founded in 1966, while informal agreements have
meant US and European nationals lead the World Bank and IMF. Some officials have expressed concern
that the AIIB will lack transparency and adhere to lower standards for labour and environmental protection.
But Mr Nakao said that he and Mr Jin had discussed the need for safeguards .
Boost in annual green lending to $6bn by 2020 comes as bank seeks to stay
relevant We agreed that social and environmental protection considerations are important,
safeguard processes are important. We have been supporting the AIIB to
produce these policies and guidelines , he said. Mr Nakao has been a
staunch advocate of engagement with China despite some critics saying that as
a middle-income country, China no longer needs support from development
banks. The ADB approved a total of $1.7bn to Chinese local and central
government in 2015 and an additional $700m to companies, of $27bn in total
loan approvals. ADBs focus in China is on projects related to climate change and the
environment. The ADB has issued renminbi bonds both in China and offshore to
support its lending to the country , though Mr Nakao said there were no plans to make
renminbi loans to other borrowers. AIIB also said in January it would lend in US dollars. Last year the ADB
approved a $300m anti-pollution loan to the government of Hebei, Chinas most polluted province. Critics
said the so-called budget support loan was essentially a fiscal subsidy to Hebei to help plug a gap in its
operating budget. But Mr Nakao said the loan was an opportunity to deploy ADB expertise to influence
policy. Were doing this to have a stronger process upstream instead of just individual projects. We are
discussing how this money is used. Its not just a checking account, he said.
AIIB is good and permutation is best --- healthy
competition will improve multilateral development banks
Orr, 5/4/16 --- US ambassador to the Asian Development Bank from 2010
to 2016 and is a member of the Pacific Forum CSIS Board (Robert M., PacNet
#39 - The Asian Development Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment
Bank: conditional collaboration? https://www.csis.org/analysis/pacnet-39-
asian-development-bank-and-asian-infrastructure-investment-bank-
conditional, article downloaded 6/7/16, JMP)
Creation of the Chinese-sponsored Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) has won considerable attention in many
Some view the establishment of the AIIB as a
capitals, particularly in Washington and Tokyo.
challenge to the supremacy of the post-World War II Bretton Woods order. Others
see it as a symbol of shifting regional power in Asia. Some have deep
concerns about the AIIBs willingness to adhere to international safeguards
and open procurement. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) Washington and Tokyo were less than thrilled
with the creation of the AIIB to say the least. Ironically, this is not the first time the US questioned the establishment of a
Multilateral Development Bank (MDB) in Asia. While the ADB has come to be regarded by many as a Japanese-American
bank, there were voices in Washington that opposed the ADB prior to its creation in 1966. Treasury Secretary C. Douglas
Dillon and others in the State Department feared that a new regional MDB would act as a financial resource lamprey to a
more established institution like the World Bank. The crunch time came at the 1965 meeting of the United Nations
Economic Commission for Asia and the Far East in Wellington. The US delegation had been instructed not to pledge any
capital for an Asian regional bank. However, at the last minute, word came from the Johnson White House that the
president was not necessarily opposed. This allayed the concerns of policymakers who believed that White House support
greatly improved the possibility of persuading Congress to approve the ADB. With the presidents green light, the US
proceeded to become a capital contributor to the ADB. Now, years later, there is a discussion about whether the United
States might join the AIIB and, once again, one of the concerns is whether the Hill will acquiesce. Today, the ADB is the
largest of all regional banks. Next year, its equity will triple to around $53 billion from $18 billion with the merger of the
hard loan window, known as ordinary capital resources, and the soft loan Asian Development Fund. The latter will become
a 100 percent grant operation, a reform so significant that other MDBs are considering it as a future model. The two
largest shareholders of the ADB are the US and Japan with roughly 15.7 percent each, followed by China at 6.5 percent,
and India at six percent. Roughly 70 percent of the development portfolio is focused on five countries, including China. It
has not been easy for Capitol Hill to reconcile the fact that China is a main ADB borrower, given that China is the second
largest economy in the world with a growing rival development bank and a manned space program. Governance
structure of the ADB The Manila-based ADB has 67 member countries stretching from the Pacific Islands to Western
Europe. Its 24-member Board of Directors (BoD) reports to the Board of Governors. The US governor is the Secretary of
the Treasury. The BoD oversees the strategic direction of the Bank and approves the budget, policies, and all projects.
During my five-plus years as ambassador at the ADB, I recall many discussions with regional bilateral US ambassadors to
see whether we could get the ADB to support various projects or make sure we supported certain projects at the Board
level in the countries where they represented US interests. The Board is based at ADB Headquarters in Manila and has
the feel of a legislature. Serving on the Board often reminded me of my days as a Congressional staffer back in the 1970s.
This sense was even stronger after I became Dean of the Board, the first American in the history of the ADB. The
administration of the Bank also feels a little like the US government. The president, who has always been a Japanese
national from Japans Ministry of Finance, is the ADBs POTUS. The six vice presidents, who are regionally determined
and always include a US citizen, are similar to Cabinet officers. Below them are directors general who are akin to assistant
secretaries and from there the bureaucracy descends in a structure not unlike that of Washington, all answerable to the
country stakeholders on the BoD. The Bank has its equivalent of hearings where policies or projects can be questioned
and tweaked by Board members. By the time something goes to a formal Board meeting chaired by the ADB president, a
little tweaking can still occur but the passage of the project or policy is assured. Three countries on the Board represent
only one capital: Japan has one executive director (ED), as does China and the US. Since 1966, the US ED is an
ambassador and usually the only one on the BoD to hold that rank. The other ADB country stakeholders represent
constituencies of between five and 10 countries from the developed and developing world. Over the years, US priorities
at the ADB have focused on promoting accountability, improving transparency, and ensuring that ADB resources are used
effectively and efficiently, as well as encouraging support for countries important to US interests. These are goals that to
various degrees are usually consistent with other member countries. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank Chinese
President Xi Jinping announced the AIIB initiative in October 2013 during a visit to Southeast
Asia. The factors behind the announcement are multi-faceted. Some suspected a commercial rationale to push for more
Chinese market opportunities. Japan encountered the same suspicion when the ADB was created. Others speculated about
An
geopolitical objectives and what is perceived as tighter control of the governance structures by Beijing.
important element was the feeling by the Chinese that, despite their rise as a
great power and emergence as the second largest economy in the world,
they had not been sufficiently rewarded with capital share and voting power
rights in the World Bank and the ADB. In other words, the Chinese felt they were
being denied an opportunity to participate at their weight level. Initially, little
attention was paid to the AIIB. Some even thought that it might not get off the ground. By the time it was apparent that
the AIIB was here to stay, there wasnt much any nation could do about it. The main concerns about the AIIB are related to
governance and safeguard policies. Contrary to some media reports, the US position was not to discourage other
countries from joining the AIIB but to say if we were asked these are the questions we would raise with Beijing. The
controversy surrounding the creation of the AIIB was intense, as some countries worried about Washingtons reaction or
Tokyos or both. In October 2014, 22 Asian countries met in Beijing to sign a Memorandum of Understanding to establish
the AIIB; rapid progress in creating the bank ensued. The big break was when the United Kingdom announced its intention
to join the AIIB not necessarily pleasing other European nations who felt London had jumped the gun. However, shortly
thereafter other Europeans signed up. Japan and the US have not. It is difficult to see a near-term chance of their joining
To the AIIBs credit, it seems to
despite many voices in Tokyo and Washington advocating just that.
have heard the concerns about safeguard policy and has engaged former
officials from other MDBs to help craft practical policies or at least deploy the right buzz
words. They have an emphasis on transparency, accountability, openness, and independence. As the new president,
former ADB Vice President Jin Liqun has said, the AIIB will be lean, clean, and green. The AIIB Secretariat plans to have
700 personnel, which is substantially less than the 2,000 employees at the ADB headquarters. It is too early to tell
whether the AIIB will adhere to these precepts, as it only opened its doors in January of this year. The proof will be in the
I am encouraged by the extent to which the AIIB
pudding, but there are already good signs.
has reached out even before opening to consult with other MDBs such as the
ADB and World Bank. Already AIIB officials are studying the feasibility of co-financing 18 projects proposed by
the World Bank and eight submitted by the ADB. Many of these could be approved by the AIIB Board as early as this
summer. The ADB has made it clear that there will be no co-financing with the AIIB until ADB safeguards are accepted,
The AIIB, with 57 member countries, will have a
and this does not seem to have given the AIIB any pause.
different emphasis than the ADB, with its expanded capital base moving into
new areas such as education and healthcare. This will be a small step from
the ADBs comfort zone of infrastructure; some have said that ADB really
stands for Asian Dams and Bridges. That said, the AIIB looks to remain in the infrastructure and
connectivity space. One area of governance that many have viewed with discomfort is the AIIBs insistence on a non-
resident Board of 12 members. A resident Board is viewed, apparently, as an unnecessary cost, but it is necessary for
efficient oversight. On the ADB Board when I or my staff had concerns, arranging a face-to-face meeting with
management could be done in minutes. Emails and long distance phone calls were insufficient. Smaller MDBs like the
Caribbean Development Bank with a capital base of around $3 billion can handle this. But its hard to see how a mega-
bank like what the AIIB envisions will be able to sustain such fragile governance. It will be interesting to see how
nongovernmental organizations react to not having Board-level points of contact at the AIIB headquarters year round and
how that will manifest in member country capitals. There could be calls for Board residency. Despite frequent denials,
MDBs are fundamentally political institutions. It is difficult to make decisions for vice presidents based purely on merit at
that level. Its hard to see how political factors could ever be totally excluded. This is true at the ADB. The AIIB got its first
taste of this when a European government assumed it would receive one of the two VP slots that Europe was to get and it
I
wound up going to another. That capital thought it looked like a classic bait and switch. And already friction ensued.
see many potentially positive outcomes with the AIIB. Infrastructure demands
in developing Asia far outstrip what the ADB and World Bank can provide so
another player, governed correctly, should be a welcome addition. Ultimately,
it will have to be private capital that provides the lions share of the
developmental and infrastructure tools, but MDBs can send signals of
stability and safer investment returns to private investorssort of
good housekeeping seals. Conditional collaboration? Will collaboration between
the ADB and AIIB be driven by governance conditionality? In the beginning, at
least, my sense is yes, as both institutions develop a better sense of how the
AIIBs governance model will uphold adequate safeguards that are vital to the
ADB and, for that matter, the World Bank. It is critically important for all MDBs to coordinate. It
wont happen all the time as there may be policy preferences that are different. The ADB may have a stricter code on
Healthy competition between the two banks
environmental issues than will the AIIB.
is not a bad thing and can act as a catalyst for important reforms in
each institution. I think the existence of the AIIB will push the ADB
to widen and deepen reforms, which many stakeholders have advocated
for years. Competition can enhance that. It can act to improve the
effectiveness of safeguard regimes and the projects themselves. In
the end, we will all benefit.

Both can happen simultaneously

Dr. Kawai, 15 --- Professor at the University of Tokyos Graduate School of
Public Policy (last modified on 8/7/2015, Masahiro Kawai, ASIAN
INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT BANK: CHINA AS RESPONSIBLE
STAKEHOLDER?, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank in the Evolving
International Financial Order, http://spfusa.org/wp-
content/uploads/2015/07/AIIB-Report_4web.pdf - LK)
More specifically, the benefits of Japans participation in AIIB would include : Limiting
Chinas voting power by coordinating with Europe, Australia, New Zealand and like-minded developing member countries,
thus prodding China toward pursuing cooperative behavior; Raising AIIBs quality of governance, credit and banking
Creating synergy with the existing major
culture and environmental and social standards;
MDBs, such as the World Bank and ADB, in the form of co-financing and joint
project preparation and supervision; Positioning Japan as a reliable partner in Asias infrastructure
building and economic development; Ensuring adequate flows of information to Japanese businesses on infrastructure
projects financed by AIIB.
Heg- Asia Pivot
NEG
 1NC
Counterplan: The United States Federal Government
should substantially increase its military presence in the
Asia-Pacific Region.

The counterplan provides the military presence to comfort

allies and deter China, both of which maintain US heg
Krepinevich 15 (Andrew F. Krepinevich, Jr. is a defense policy analyst
formerly employed by the DOD who currently serves as President of the
Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. Foreign Affairs: How to
Deter China: The Case for Archipelagic Defense published March/April 2015.
Accessed July 11th 2016.
http://search.proquest.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/docview/1658669009/C5B71E
D5A0B043C6PQ/4?accountid=14667 NOTE that this link is to the ProQuest
page and thus wont work for people without a ProQuest account.) Fedora
By 2020, the navy and the air force
In the U.S. military, at least, the " pivot" to Asia has begun.
plan to base 60 percent of their forces in the Asia-Pacific region. The
Pentagon, meanwhile, is investing a growing share of its shrinking resources in
new long-range bombers and nuclearpowered submarines designed to
operate in high-threat environments. These changes are clearly meant to
check an increasingly assertive China. And with good reason: Beijing's
expanding territorial claims threaten virtually every country along what is
commonly known as "the first island chain," encompassing parts of Japan, the
Philippines, and Taiwan-all of which Washington is obligated to protect. But
to reliably deter Chinese aggression, the Pentagon will have to go
even further. Emerging Chinese capabilities are intended to blunt
Washington's ability to provide military support to its allies and partners .
Although deterrence through the prospect of punishment, in the form of air strikes and naval blockades, has a role to play
Washington's goal, and that of its allies and partners, should be to
in discouraging Chinese adventurism,
achieve deterrence through denial-to convince Beijing that it simply cannot
achieve its objectives with force. Leveraging the latent potential of U.S., allied, and partner ground
forces, Washington can best achieve this objective by establishing a series of
linked defenses along the first island chain-an "Archipelagic Defense"-and, in so doing,
deny Beijing the ability to achieve its revisionist aims through aggression or
coercion. THE RISKS OF REVISIONISM China claims that its rise is intended to be peaceful, but its actions tell a
different story: that of a revisionist power seeking to dominate the western Pacific. Beijing has claimed sovereignty over
not only Taiwan but also Japan's Senkaku Islands (known in China as the Diaoyu Islands) and most of the 1.7 million
square miles that make up the East China and South China Seas, where six other countries maintain various territorial and
maritime claims. And it has been unapologetic about pursuing those goals. In 2010, for example, China's then foreign
minister, Yang Jiechi, dismissed concerns over Beijing's expansionism in a single breath, saying, "China is a big country,
Consider Beijing's recent bullying in
and other countries are small countries, and that is just a fact."
the South China Sea. In March 2014, Chinese coast guard boats blocked the Philippines from accessing its
outposts on the Spratly Islands. Two months later, China moved an oil rig into Vietnam's exclusive economic zone,
The moves echoed earlier incidents in the East
clashing with Vietnamese fishing boats.
China Sea. In September 2010, as punishment for detaining a Chinese fishing boat captain who had rammed two
Japanese coast guard vessels, China temporarily cut off its exports to Japan of rare-earth elements, which are essential for
 China unilaterally declared an " air
manufacturing cell phones and computers. And in November 2013,
defense identification zone," subject to its own air traffic regulations, over the
disputed Senkaku Islands and other areas of the East China Sea, warning that
it would take military action against aircraft that refused to comply. Some have
suggested that as its military grows stronger and its leaders feel more secure, China will moderate such behavior. But the
Beijing's provocations have coincided with the
opposite seems far more likely. Indeed,
dramatic growth of its military muscle. China is now investing in a number of
new capabilities that pose a direct challenge to regional stability. For
example, China's People's Liberation Army is bolstering its so-called anti-access/ area-
denial capabilities, which aim to prevent other militaries from occupying or
crossing vast stretches of territory, with the express goal of making the
western Pacific a no-go zone for the U.S. military. That includes developing the means to
target the Pentagon's command-and-control systems, which rely heavily on satellites and the Internet to coordinate
operations and logistics. The pla has made substantial progress on this front in recent years, testing an antisatellite
China is
missile, using lasers to blind U.S. satellites, and waging sophisticated cyberattacks on U.S. defense networks.
also enhancing its capacity to target critical U.S. military assets and limit the
U.S. Navy's ability to maneuver in international waters . The pla already has
conventional ballistic and cruise missiles that can strike major U.S. facilities in
the region, such as the Kadena Air Base, in Okinawa, Japan, and is developing stealth combat
aircraft capable of striking many targets along the first island chain . To detect and
target naval vessels at greater distances, the pla has deployed powerful radars and
reconnaissance satellites, along with unmanned aerial vehicles that can
conduct long-range scouting missions. And to stalk U.S. aircraft carriers, as well
as the surface warships that protect them, the Chinese navy is acquiring
submarines armed with advanced torpedoes and high-speed cruise missiles
designed to strike ships at long distances. Beijing's actions cannot be
explained away as a response to a U.S. arms buildup . For the last decade,
Washington has focused its energy and resources primarily on supporting its ground troops in Afghanistan and Iraq. The
U.S. defense budget, which until recently stood at above four percent of the country's gdp, is projected to decline to less
Simply put, the Pentagon is shedding military
than three percent by the end of the decade.
capabilities while the pla is amassing them. Yet if the past is prologue, China will not seek to
resolve its expansionist aims through overt aggression. Consistent with its strategic culture, it wants to slowly but
inexorably shift the regional military balance in its favor, leaving the rest of the region with little choice but to submit to

China's maritime neighbors are

Chinese coercion. For the most part,

convinced that diplomatic and economic

engagement will do little to alter this basic fact. Several
of them, including Japan, the Philippines, and Vietnam, are increasingly
focusing their militaries on the task of resisting Chinese ambitions. They know
full well, however, that individual action will be insufficient to prevent
Beijing from carrying its vision forward . Only with U.S. material
support can they form a collective front that deters China from acts
of aggression or coercion. DETERRENCE THROUGH DENIAL If Washington wants to
change Beijing's calculus, it must deny China the ability to control the air and
the sea around the first island chain, since the pla would have to dominate
both arenas to isolate the archipelago. The United States must also
integrate allied battle networks and strengthen allied capabilities-
both of which will help offset the pla's efforts to destabilize the
region's military balance. By and large, those goals can be achieved with ground forces, which would
not replace existing air and naval forces but complement them. When it comes to air defenses, states along the first
island chain could buttress their ability to deny China access to airspace by employing army units equipped with highly
mobile and relatively simple short-range interceptor missiles (such as the Evolved Sea Sparrow, supported by giraffe radar
The U.S. Army, meanwhile, along with such allies as Japan,
systems to detect targets).
could operate more sophisticated, longer-range systems capable of
intercepting Chinese cruise missiles and destroying advanced Chinese
aircraft. Although not part of the first island chain, Vietnam is already enhancing its air-denial
capabilities and could contribute to a larger defense effort. Then there is the
task of denying the pla the sea control it would need to mount offensive
operations against the islands. Senior members of Congress have encouraged the U.S. Army to consider
resurrecting an artillery force for coastal defense , a mission it abandoned after World War II.
The idea is simple and compelling. Rather than risk sending warships within
range of pla defenses or diverting submarines from higher-priority missions,
the United States and its allies could rely on ground forces, based along the
first island chain and armed with mobile launchers and antiship cruise
missiles, to perform the same operations. Japan's military has done exactly that, placing
shorebased antiship cruise missile units on some of the Ryukyu Islands during military exercises. Vietnam has fielded
other frontline states could follow suit, either independently or with U.S.
similar systems. And
funding, training, and technical assistance. Another mission to which U.S. and allied ground
forces could contribute is naval mine warfare. Traditionally, naval ships lay and clear mines to restrict or allow transit
through narrow seas and straits. Although clearing mines will remain an inherently naval function, ground forces could
play a larger role in laying them, particularly if stationed near the key straits that link the East China and South China Seas
to the open oceans. Armed with the ability to emplace sea mines from land bases using short-range rockets, helicopters,
or _ barges, U.S. and allied ground forces could mT large stretches of sea fT at key chokepoints along the first island
chain would greatly complicate a Chinese naval offensive and hamper China's ability to harass allied naval forces. Nearby
coastal antiship missile batteries, meanwhile, could make mine-clearing operations risky for pla ships. Over the long run,
ground forces could also support operations against the pla's growing submarine force. A submarine relies heavily on its
stealth for defense; once noticed, it must evade contact or assume a high risk of destruction. By placing low-frequency
and acoustic sensors in the water around the first island chain, U.S. and allied forces could augment their ability to detect
the presence of pla submarines. Coastal artillery units could then use rocket-launched torpedoes to induce oncoming
If China invaded a U.S. ally or partner, even a
submarines to abandon their missions and retreat.
small number of U.S. ground troops could help local forces mount a
determined resistance. Modern conflicts in Southeast Asia and the Middle
East have demonstrated what a modest irregular ground force can achieve
with the help of modern weapons and capable advisers. Thanks to U.S. advisers and
airpower, an overmatched South Vietnamese army was able to withstand a full-scale assault by North Vietnamese forces
in 1972. Nearly three decades later, in 2001, a small contingent of U.S. Special Forces, backed by strike aircraft, helped
Afghanistan's Northern Alliance defeat the Taliban. And in 2006, Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon, with the assistance of
effort by U.S. ground
Iranian advisers, fought the Israeli Defense Forces to a standstill for a month. A similar
forces in the Pacific could make seizing and occupying territory an extremely
costly proposition for China, especially if local forces also had advanced
training and equipment. Access to short-range, precision-guided mortars, rockets, and shoulder-fired
antiaircraft missiles, for example, would maximize the lethality of small guerrilla resistance units. By shouldering greater
responsibility for denying the pla the air and sea control it needs to mount offensive operations, ground forces could
liberate U.S. and allied air and naval forces to perform the missions only they can accomplish, such as long-range
Should deterrence fail, these air and naval assets would
surveillance and air strikes.
prove critical to defending the first island chain and offsetting pla
advantages. For example, the pla can concentrate forces at any point along the first island chain far more rapidly
than can the United States and widely distributed. And it doesn't have to reconcile conflicting national interests. (In the
wake of a Chinese offensive against a single island, countries along the chain would likely want to keep their forces in
place to defend their homelands.) By reducing the demands on U.S. air and naval forces for such missions as air and sea
denial, ground forces would enable these air and naval forces to stand in reserve, ready to move quickly to defend a
To be successful, a policy of deterrence also needs to have
threatened link in the chain.
a credible threat of retaliation after the fact, and here, too, ground forces
could help. At present, the U.S. weapons that can launch a precise retaliatory strike are located on increasingly
vulnerable forward air bases and aircraft carriers. The Pentagon plans to address this problem in part by building new
submarines and long-range stealth bombers, but the cost of such hardware is high, especially given their relatively
modest payloads. Ground forces, by comparison, may offer a cheaper way to provide additional firepower. Unlike air and
naval forces, ground forces do not need to return to distant bases in order to rearm. They can store far more munitions
than even the largest bomber or warship, and they can place them in hardened bunkers that are better shielded from
attack.
 2NC/1NR OV
The plan triggers the Japan/Taiwan DA: both countries
have specified diplomatic and economic engagement as
approaches they dont trust. The Counterplan solves:
military presence in the Asia-Pacific region provides
support to allies like Japan and Taiwan, which makes them
less nervous while pre-emptively deterring China.
All thats the Krepinevich 15 evidence, which you should
prefer over their authors: he served on the personal staff
of three secretaries of defense and was appointed by one
to serve on the nine-member National Defense Panel: he
is as qualified as possible on the political effects of
military stationing
Dont vote on the perm: it still triggers the disad links:
only the counterplan alone solves
 Japan alliance solves
US Japan alliance key to US heg in East Asia
Chanlett and Rinehart 16 (Emma Chanlett-Avery Specialist in Asian
Affairs for the US Congressional Research Service and Ian E. Rinehart Analyst
in Asian Affairs for the US Congressional Research Service. Congressional
Research Service The U.S.-Japan Alliance. Published February 9, 2016.
Accessed July 9th 2016.) Fedora
The U.S.-Japan alliance has long been an anchor of the U.S. security role in
Asia. Forged in the U.S. occupation of Japan after its defeat in World War II, the alliance
provides a platform for U.S. military readiness in the Pacific . About
50,000 U.S. troops are stationed in Japan and have the exclusive use of 89 facilities. In exchange,
the United States guarantees Japans security. Security challenges in the
region, particularly nuclear and missile tests by North Korea and increased Chinese maritime
activities, have reinforced U.S.-Japan cooperation in recent years. The vitality of
the alliance is particularly salient as the Obama Administration renews its
focus on the AsiaPacific region through a strategic rebalancing. The U.S.-Japan
alliance, missing a strategic anchor since the end of the Cold War, may have found a new guiding rationale
in shaping the environment for Chinas rise.Since the early 2000s, the United States and
Japan have taken significant strides in improving the operational capability of
the alliance as a combined force, despite constraints. In addition to serving as
hub for forward-deployed U.S. forces, Japan provides its own advanced
military assets, many of which complement U.S. forces in missions like anti-
submarine operations. The joint response to a 2011 tsunami and earthquake in Japan
demonstrated the interoperability of the two. Cooperation on ballistic missile defense and
new attention to the cyber and space domains has also been strong. Japans
own defense policy has continued to evolve, and major strategic documents
reflect a new attention to operational readiness and flexibility.

US military presence in Japan key to maintain the US-

Japan alliance and deter Chinese aggression
Klingner 11 (Bruce Klingner specializes in Korean and Japanese affairs as
the senior research fellow for Northeast Asia at The Heritage Foundation's
Asian Studies Center. The Heritage Foundation Top 10 Reasons Why the U.S.
Marines on Okinawa Are Essential to Peace and Security in the Pacific
Published June 14th, 2011. July 10th, 2016.
http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2011/06/top-10-reasons-why-the-us-
marines-on-okinawa-are-essential-to-peace-and-security-in-the-pacific)
Fedora
Reason #1:The U.S. Marine presence is a tangible sign of Americas
commitment to defend Asia. U.S. forward-deployed forces in Asia are
indisputable signals of Washingtons commitment to the obligations of its 1960
security treaty with Japan to defend its allies and maintain peace and stability
in Asia. The U.S. Marines on Okinawa are an indispensable component of any
U.S. response to an Asian crisis. The Marine presence is also a clear rebuttal
to perceptions of waning United States resolve in the face of a rising and
assertive China. Withdrawing the U.S. Marines from Okinawa would
only affirm that perception and lead Asian nations to accommodate
themselves to Chinese pressure. As a senior U.S. military officer commented, U.S.
dominance is not a given. You have to be on the court to be in the game. Finally, an important question
remains: What impact would the removal of U.S. ground forces have on President Obamas much-hyped
The U.S. Marine presence deters
claim that the U.S. is now back in Asia? Reason #2:
aggression. U.S. Ambassador to Japan John Roos has explained that the fundamental role of
U.S. military forces in Japan is to make those who would consider the use of
force in this region understand that option is off the table. The forward
deployment of U.S. forces puts us in a position to react immediately to
emerging threats.[7] The December 2010 Japanese National Defense Program Guidelines
underscored Rooss comments by noting that the presence of U.S. armed forces in Japan gives countries in
the AsiaPacific region a strong sense of security by functioning as deterrence against and response to
contingencies in this region.[8] Foreign Minister Okada affirmed that the
presence of U.S.
Marines on Okinawa is necessary for Japans national security [since they] are
a powerful deterrent against possible enemy attacks and should be stationed
in Japan.[9] History has repeatedly shown that ground troops are necessary to
influence an opponent. Removing combat elements of the only rapidly
deployable U.S. ground force between Hawaii and India would degrade U.S.
deterrence capacity and limit response options. Reason #3: The U.S. Marine
presence enables the conduct of full-spectrum combat operations.
The Third Marine Expeditionary Force (III MEF) on Okinawa is a flexible, scalable,
tailored, self-contained, rapidly deployable, powerful military force that can
fulfill any contingency that might arise throughout the region. A combined arms force that
operates under the Marine Corps doctrine of Marine Air Ground Task Force (MAGTF), the III MEF is
comprised of organic ground, air, and logistics components under a single commander. A MAGTF requires
collocation of its ground, air, and logistics components to enable coordinated training of integrated units.
Ambassador Roos explained that the Marine helicopters on Okinawa enable the U.S.
to: Rapidly move our ground combat and support units on Okinawa across the island
chain that links Northeast and Southeast Asia to wherever they would be required . For
heavier and longer-range operations, the Marines would be supported by our
naval fleet in Sasebo, just a few days sailing time away, which could project
both Marine ground and air power anywhere in the region. The Marines on
Okinawa would arrive first on the scene to secure critical facilities, conduct
civilian evacuations, and provide forward land and air strike power.[10]
Lieutenant General Keith Stalder, former commander, U.S. Marine Forces Pacific, echoed Rooss comments,
noting that Okinawa Marines are trained to respond to dozens of different emergencies and contingencies:
When the 31st MEU [Marine Expeditionary Unit] is aboard ship in Okinawa, there is a 100 percent chance
they are about a days transit time to either a U.S. defense treaty ally, a threat to regional stability, or a
The U.S. Marine presence helps
perennial disaster relief location.[11] Reason #4:
America meet its commitment to defend Japan, including the
Senkaku Islands. The United States has pledged the lives of its sons and daughters to defend
Japan. As Lieutenant General Stalder succinctly explained, all of my Marines on Okinawa are willing to die
Indeed, as Prime Minister Kan commented,
if it is necessary for the security of Japan. [12]
Including the Marines in Okinawa, all U.S. troops stationed in Japan play a
major role in contributing to our nations safety and the regions stability .[13]
Kan stated: [W]e must never forget that in the context of the JapanU.S. alliance, members of the Japanese
Self-Defense Forces and the U.S. Marines, perhaps youth not even twenty years of age, have a mission to
be prepared to shed their own blood [for the defense of Japan] should a contingency arise. In response to
Chinese provocations, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton reassured Foreign Minister Maehara in November
2010 that the United States considered the Senkaku Islands to be Japanese territory under the bilateral
security treaty. The U.S. statement was a stronger affirmation than previous vague diplomatic comments
In addition to the Senkaku Islands, U.S. Marines are
on the sovereignty of the islands.
also critical to securing Japanese interests in Okinawa. For example, Defense Minister
Toshimi Kitazawa opposed moving U.S. Marines from Okinawa to Guam because, as he noted, these
troops a very important role in deterring against Chinese adventurism near
Okinawaif all the Marines in Okinawa were transferred to Guam, we cannot defend those islands.
[14] Further highlighting the Marines role in the Pacific, in February 2011, Admiral Robert Willard,
the Marine Corps had been integrated
commander of Pacific Command, announced that
into the new U.S. AirSeaBattle Concept battle plan , commenting that their
capabilities will be an enhancement to our joint force . A U.S. defense official added
that the revised strategy could use the Marines to retake islands in the East China or South China seas
after a Chinese attack. The official commented that the
Japanese and South China Sea
states dont have Marine Corps-type capabilities to stop a Chinese occupation
of islands.[15]

US-Japan ties deter China

Auslin 10 (Dr. Michael Auslin was an associate professor of history at Yale
University before becoming the resident scholar and the director of Japan
Studies at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), where he specializes in
Asian regional security and political issues. American Enterprise Institute:
The U.S.-Japan Alliance published January 7 th, 2010. Accessed July 10th,
2016. https://www.aei.org/publication/the-u-s-japan-alliance/) Fedora
Taking such an approach will also help the alliance work together to engage
China. Japan and the United States have common economic and political
interests with China, and coordinating outreach to China can help set clear
benchmarks for progress on many issues, including climate change, confidence building, and trade
promotion. It does not make sense for Tokyo and Washington always to deal with
Beijing independently given these common interests , although each country will follow its
own policies and national goals when talking with China. Given the concerns both the United States and Japan have about
Chinas military buildup or the effects of Chinese industry on pollution, joint efforts to begin dialogues with China or
The alliance has served as the
presenting a shared position may be extremely useful.
cornerstone of Japanese defense and East Asian stability for fifty years. It
has done so because of the willingness of both Japan and the United States to
bear heavy burdens. Without Japanese support and bases, there would be no
credible U.S. military presence in Asia. Without the alliance, there is no
assurance that the peace among the major powers in the past fifty years
would have continued, nor that they would have been able to develop their economies to the degree they
have. For this reason, the alliance should continue and maintain its core focus on
defending Japan and maintaining stability in East Asia.
 Taiwan alliance solves
Losing Taiwan ties decks US heg and ability to deter China
Colby 15 (Elbridge Colby is the Robert M. Gates Senior Fellow at the Center
for a New American Security (CNAS), where he focuses on issues relating to
defense strategy, deterrence, nuclear weapons, conventional forces, U.S.
alliances, space, intelligence, and related issues. The National Interest Asia
Goes Nuclear published January/February 2015. Accessed July 11 th, 2016.)
Fedora
This raises the third reason why nuclear weapons are likely to become more relevant in the Asia-Pacific.
This stems from the unfortunate fact that the United States may lose the conventional military advantage
it has historically enjoyed over China in maritime Asia. Such a loss would most plausibly be partial- China
would be unlikely to seize whole the conventional upper hand in the region. But, having gained the
advantage over some parts of the western Pacific, Beijing might, for example, attempt to force the United
States into a situation in which Washington would be unwilling to take the necessarily escalatory steps to
Beijing might gain conventional
overcome or push back Chinese attacks. For instance,
superiority around Taiwan and be able to block U.S. efforts designed to
defend the island. In such a case, the United States might need to broaden the war, possibly by
striking targets further into China and of greater value to the prc's leadership, in order to persuade Beijing
to agree to acceptable terms. The plausible threat of a limited Chinese nuclear response would prove a
substantial disincentive to pursuing such a course. A loss of U.S. conventional advantages in maritime Asia
could come about because of a U.S. lack of resolve or inattention, because of the scale and effectiveness
of China's substantial and ongoing military buildup, or because of some malign combination of both. Such
a shiftin the balance is more plausible in the foreseeable future regarding the western portions of the
the western
Pacific, but this apparent narrowing of the problem actually offers little comfort since
Pacific is home to Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the nations of Southeast
Asia, and is the eastern gateway to the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf.
Losing military primacy and thus regional strategic leadership there is hardly
compensated for by preserving it over the Samoan Islands. Moreover, military
primacy lost in the western Pacific is just as likely to be simply a stage on the
way to further erosion as it is to be the terminus of a shiftin the military
balance. In the event that the United States does lose its conventional
advantage, Washington may well seek to rely on its own nuclear weapons to
compensate for outright inferiority or for the inability of its conventional
forces to fight back in a way sufficiently controlled to suit U.S. interests in
limiting a conflict. This reliance would, in effect, be a return to U.S. policy during the Cold War, when
Washington relied on its nuclear forces to offset Soviet conventional superiority in Europe. In particular,
Washington would likely seek to exploit its superior ability to conduct a
limited nuclear war to deter China from taking advantage of its conventional
lead.
AFF
 CP makes China more agro
A bolstered US-Japan alliance pushes China over the
brink: theyre already nervous
Glaser and Farrar 15 (Bonnie S. Glaser is a senior adviser for Asia in
the Freeman Chair for China Studies, Center for Strategic and International
Studies. Brittney Farrar is a CSIS research intern and M.A. candidate in the
Security Studies Program at Georgetown University. The National Interest
Through Beijing's Eyes: How China Sees the U.S.-Japan Alliance published
May 12th, 2015. Accessed July 9th, 2016.
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/through-beijings-eyes-how-china-sees-the-
us-japan-alliance-12864?page=3) Fedora
Under the Xi administration, Beijings opposition to the strengthening of the
U.S.-Japan alliance has been shrill and explicit. In May 2014, Xi Jinping used his
keynote address as the chair of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence
Building Measures in Asia (CICA) to aver that U.S. alliances have no place in
the regional security architecture China is peddling, saying, A military
alliance which is targeted at a third party is not conducive to common
regional security. He then proposed that [s]ecurity problems in Asia should
be solved by Asians themselves, implying that not only are U.S. alliances irrelevant, but
the United States itself should play no role in making and enforcing regional
security rules. Six months later, Vice Foreign Minister Liu Zhenmin reaffirmed Xis vision at the
Peoples Liberation Armys fifth Xiangshan Forum, saying China is both a proponent and practitioner of
this Asian security concept. At the China Development Forum in March 2015, Foreign Minister Wang Yi
added to the drumbeat of criticism of U.S. military alliances. . . . we hope that parties may, by acting
along the trend of the times, explore a new type of partnership that is more inclusive and constructive,
that is not targeted at a hypothetical enemy or against a third party, Wang said. So far, remarks by
Chinese officials on the updated U.S.-Japan defense guidelines have been relatively mild. On April 30,
Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesperson Hong Lei said, The U.S.-Japan alliance is a bilateral arrangement
forged during the Cold War. The United States and Japan shoulder the responsibility of ensuring that a third
party's interests will not be damaged and peace and stability of the Asia-Pacific not be undermined by their
Chinese military analysts have reiterated
alliance. In nonauthoritative writings,
that the alliance is ill suited to current international conditions, while they
reveal concerns that the changes will make for more seamless and global
joint U.S.-Japan military operations that could endanger Chinese
security. In the wake of Abes visit to the United States, the Chinese will likely assess the U.S.-Japan
alliance as robust and therefore not vulnerable to Chinese pressure, at least through the end of Abes term
Beijing will probably not give up on efforts to
in office. Despite this assessment, however,
abolish U.S. regional alliances. Rather, China will focus its attention on
undermining U.S. alliances in Asia it deems more susceptible to Chinese influence. Such
attempts are already visible in Chinese pressure on South Korea to forego
deploying Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) systems to defend
against the growing threat from North Korean ballistic missiles.
 Rollback K2 East Asian stability
Turn: Japan and the US would be more secure and co-
operative with one another if Japan had to develop its
own military program
Mizokami 12 (Kyle Mizokami is a defense writer based in San Francisco.
The Atlantic Japan and the U.S.: It's Time to Rethink Your Relationship
published September 27th 2012. Accessed July 11th, 2016.
http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/09/japan-and-the-us-
its-time-to-rethink-your-relationship/262916/) Fedora
Fifty-twoyears ago, the United States and Japan signed the Treaty of Mutual
Cooperation and Security. Forged just 15 years after a brutal, racially charged war between the
two nations, the treaty was an exercise in realpolitik. It was written with an eye
toward not only Japan's security but the containment of communism across
Asia. The U.S.-Japan alliance is credited with nipping a resurgent Japanese
militarism in the bud, providing a backbone of stability for postwar Asia, and
giving the United States a base from which to confront China, Russia, and its
satellites. Today, Japan has fully recovered from the war to become the third-
largest economy in the world. The threat of communism has evaporated. Yet
despite the alliance's past successes, it's hard to conclude that it continues to
serve the United States and Japan well. The alliance freezes the relationship in time, forcing
both to adhere to antiquated policies. It views the regional security environment
through a Cold War lens, distorting how other countries are perceived.
Perhaps most importantly, it prevents Japan from evolving into a modern
state and accepting the responsibilities that come with it. It's accordingly time
to shelve the old security agreement between America and Japan.
Replacing it should be a new agreement in which both countries
share equal responsibilities and the Japanese people are encouraged to
take on a greater role worldwide. Scrapping the old treaty and replacing it
with a new one would make the alliance -- and the security of both
countries -- even stronger than before.
Helium 3- Infinite Energy
 Quick note
Hi there! The Mellino card and the NREL card dont necessarily need to read
together, but it just makes things a lot better if they are, because you have a
uniqueness claim saying that we can run on 100% renewables and another
that says they are already increasing now, so I guess you dont need them
both but it forms a stronger argument. That is all. Have fun =]
 1NC
CP Text: The USFG should substantially increase its
renewable energy research and development in the US.
Renewables already dramatically increasing in the squo
enhanced development is key
Mellino 15 Cole Mellino is a writer based in Cleveland, where he covers
news for EcoWatch and with the Energy team at the Center for American
Progress, which conducts research and analysis on energy and climate
change policy, "Renewables to Overtake Coal as World's Largest Power
Source, Says IEA," Nov 10, http://www.ecowatch.com/renewables-to-overtake-
coal-as-worlds-largest-power-source-says-iea-1882118437.html Audka
The International Energy Agency's (IEA) latest report found that "in advance of the critical COP21 climate summit in
Paris, there's a clear sign that an energy transition is underway. " The World Energy Outlook

2015 report, published today, found that "renewables contributed almost half of the world's new

power generation capacity in 2014 and have already become the second-
largest source of electricity (after coal)." More than 150 countries have submitted
climate pledges ahead of the Paris climate talks, and they are "rich in commitments
on renewables and energy efficiency," says the IEA. The report also found renewables are set
to become "the leading source of new energy supply from now to 2040." And
renewables will overtake coal as the largest source of electricity generation
by the 2030s. The IEA projects turbulent times ahead for coal: Coal has increased its share of the global energy mix from 23
percent in 2000 to 29 percent today, but the momentum behind coals surge is ebbing away and the fuel faces a reversal of fortune. China's
coal use will "plateau at close to today's levels," says the IEA, but India's energy demand will grow to 2.5 times its current rate. It remains to
be seen whether India will pursue the coal-heavy track that China followed. Coal demand is set to triple in India and Southeast Asia by 2040,

India is one of many countries aiming to become a so-

reports the Guardian. At the same time,

called "solar superpower," making a huge commitment to renewables at its

first big renewables trade convention earlier this year. And India lays claim to
the world's first airport powered entirely by solar energy. "Renewables-based generation
reaches 50 percent in the EU [European Union] by 2040, around 30 percent in China and Japan, and above 25 percent in the United States and
India," according to IEA estimates. The rapid growth in renewable energy will help emissions to slow "dramatically," says the IEA, but the
current emissions trajectory shows we are still heading for 2.7 degrees Celsius warming by 2100. The IEA warns that a "major course
correction" is still required to keep warming below the two degrees Celsius target. "As the largest source of global greenhouse-gas emissions,
the energy sector must be at the heart of global action to tackle climate change," said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. "World leaders

The IEA
meeting in Paris must set a clear direction for the accelerated transformation of the global energy sector," she added. "

stands ready to support the implementation of an agreement reached in Paris

with all of the instruments at our disposal, to track progress, promote better
policies and support the technology innovation that can fulfill the world's
hopes for a safe and sustainable energy future. " Yesterday, two reports found the Earth's climate has
passed two new milestones. The World Meteorological Organization's report found that greenhouse gas concentrations hit yet another new
record in 2014. Globally averaged CO2 levels above 400 parts per million will soon be "a permanent reality, the WMO Secretary-General
Michel Jarraud said. Meanwhile, the UK's Met Office report found that global warming is on track to exceed one degrees Celsius above pre-

we can rapidly transition to a low-

industrial levels by the end of the year. But several groups are outlining how

carbon future by expediting the deployment of renewable energy worldwide .

Just yesterday, NextGen Climate America released a new report showing that the transition to a clean

energy economy will drive economic growth for decades, create well-paying
jobs and increase household incomes . And in September, Greenpeace outlined a path for the world to transition
to 100 percent renewable energy by 2050. The impossible is becoming possible. The global breakthrough of renewable energy has happened
much faster than anticipated," said Emily Rochon, global energy strategist at Greenpeace International. The IEA is catching up on renewable

energy trends, but it is still failing to see the full potential of change," said Rochon. "We believe that with the right level of
policy support, the world can deliver 100 percent renewable energy for all by
2050.

The world can feasibly run on 100% renewables, and US

growth skyrockets effectiveness
NREL 15 United States' primary laboratory for renewable energy and
energy efficiency research and development Can the World Run on
Renewable Energy," April 23, can-the-world-run-on-renewable-energy AudKa
Without doubt, renewable energy is on a roll. Denmark is producing 43% of its energy from renewables, and
it aims for 70% by 2020. Germany, at more than 25% now and 30% soon, is going for 40% to 45% clean
power by 2025, 55% to 60% by 2035, and an incredible 80% by 2050. China, despite many challenges, is the
The United
worlds leading source of renewable investment, as well as the largest solar manufacturer.
States, with about 13% renewable energy generation, has some catching up
to do, though California (where some developers are incorporating solar into every house they build)
points the way forward. The Solar Energy Industries Association reports that the
solar market in the U.S. grew by 41% in 2013, and that it made up 20% of all
new generating capacity in that year. Both solar and wind are making strides. A global
Bloomberg survey predicted that solar will grow more than 20% internationally in 2014 (as it did between
2012 and 2013). And the Global Wind Energy Council projects that 2014 will be a very good year
internationally for wind as well, with dramatic increases over 2013 and at least 47 gigawatts of wind
installed around the world. Room for Growth But all this positive movement could obscure the fact that
renewable energy is still a very small part of the mix both in the U.S. and globally. The big percentage
increases start from a small base (even with its rapid growth, solar is still less than 1% of generation in the
U.S., and the official consensus is that the world will run on fossil fuel energy for the foreseeable future).
The International Energy Agencys World Energy Outlook 2013 reports,
Todays share of fossil fuels in the global mix, at 82%, is the same as it was
25 years ago; the strong rise of renewables only reduces this to around 75%
in 2035.

Renewables reduce CO2 emissions by 81 percent

EIA 16 US Energy Information Administration "Benefits of Renewable
Energy Use," April 1, http://www.ucsusa.org/clean_energy/our-energy-
choices/renewable-energy/public-benefits-of-renewable AudKa
Human activity is overloading our atmosphere with carbon dioxide and other global warming emissions, which trap heat, steadily drive up the
planets temperature, and create significant and harmful impacts on our health, our environment, and our climate. Electricity production
accounts for more than one-third of U.S. global warming emissions, with the majority generated by coal-fired power plants, which produce
approximately 25 percent of total U.S. global warming emissions; natural gas-fired power plants produce 6 percent of total emissions [1, 2]. In

most renewable energy sources produce little to no global warming

contrast,

emissions. According to data aggregated by the International Panel on

Climate Change, life-cycle global warming emissions associated with
renewable energyincluding manufacturing, installation, operation and maintenance, and dismantling and decommissioning
are minimal [3]. Compared with natural gas, which emits between 0.6 and 2 pounds of carbon dioxide equivalent per kilowatt-hour
(CO2E/kWh), and coal, which emits between 1.4 and 3.6 pounds of CO2E/kWh, wind emits only 0.02 to 0.04 pounds of CO2E/kWh, solar 0.07 to

Renewable electricity generation from

0.2, geothermal 0.1 to 0.2, and hydroelectric between 0.1 and 0.5.

biomass can have a wide range of global warming emissions depending on

the resource and how it is harvested. Sustainably sourced biomass has a low
emissions footprint, while unsustainable sources of biomass can generate
significant global warming emissions. Source: IPCC, 2011: IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources
and Climate Change Mitigation. Prepared by Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [O. Edenhofer, R. Pichs-
Madruga, Y. Sokona, K. Seyboth, P. Matschoss, S. Kadner, T. Zwickel, P. Eickemeier, G. Hansen, S. Schlmer, C. von Stechow (eds)]. Cambridge

Increasing the supply of

University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1075 pp. (Chapter 9).

renewable energy would allow us to replace carbon-intensive energy sources

and significantly reduce U.S. global warming emissions . For example, a 2009 UCS analysis found
that a 25 percent by 2025 national renewable electricity standard would lower

power plant CO2 emissions 277 million metric tons annually by 2025the
equivalent of the annual output from 70 typical (600 MW) new coal plants [4]. In addition, a
ground-breaking study by the U.S. Department of Energy 's National Renewable Energy Laboratory explored

the feasibility and environmental impacts associated with generating 80

percent of the countrys electricity from renewable sources by 2050 and
found that global warming emissions from electricity production could be
reduced by approximately 81 percent [5]
 2NC Overview
CP turns their [insert] scenario renewables are already available in the
status quo, but the US is behind increase in development is key to reverse
CO2 emissions globally thats Mellino and EIA evidence from the 1NC.
Emissions dramatically decrease as time goes on while renewable energy
can be feasibly 100% of all energy production thats the NREL. Solves better
than [insert] because they are available now and it does not trigger the
impact of the DA because of lack of co-op with China.
 Net Benefits
Renewables solve energy poverty Kenya proves
Cavanough 16 Australian Foreign Policy Fellow at Young Australians in
International Affairs Coal Won't Solve Energy Poverty, Renewables Will," June
27, http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/edward-cavanough/coal-wont-solve-
energy-poverty-renewables-will/ AudKa
The unfortunate primate's precarious exploration of Kenya's most important electrical source -- a hydro power plant operated
by the Kenya Electricity Generating Company -- resulted in it falling onto a transformer, short circuiting the nation's power
grid, and causing widespread blackouts and disruption in the process. While the episode exposed the vulnerabilities of

Kenya's national power gird, it also highlighted a growing trend among developing
countries to rely heavily on renewable energy to meet domestic and regional
demand. Kenya -- generating 75 percent of its total electricity production
from renewables -- ranks 16th in the world on this measure, below a diverse
set of countries that include many the world's poorest, according to the World
Bank data on renewable energy generation. The data shows that Paraguay and
Iceland lead the world in their reliance on renewable energy, with effectively
100 percent of their electricity generated through hydro and geothermal
power. Albania is equal top, only producing electricity from renewable
sources, although it is still somewhat reliant on imported, non-renewable
energy sources to meet demand. The next three countries on the list might also surprise: Mozambique,
Zambia and Tajikistan come in at four, five and six in their generation on renewable energy for their electricity needs.

These countries are financially destitute with enormous challenges associated

with their developing status. Tajikistan is the 'sick man' of Central Asia -- close to 50 percent of its GDP is
generated from Tajik expats sending remittances home from Russia, with much of the rest coming from the nefarious Afghan
opioid trade. But it relies on hydro-power for up to 96 percent of its energy needs. Mozambique and Zambia are hardly known
for their prosperous economies or progressive politics. Their reliance on renewable sources of energy -- again, primarily hydro
-- is a pragmatic and cost effective choice -- a choice that is being replicated throughout sub-Saharan Africa. For these

, renewable energy is not a luxury. It is a necessity . A closer examination

countries

of the World Bank data also demonstrates that across the various sub-
categories of countries, it is generally the developed, wealthier West that is
lagging behind in its embrace of renewables. 'High income' and 'High Income: OECD' countries
rely on renewable sources of energy for 19.4 and 20.2 percent of their electricity generation. This is close to the global
average of approximately 21 percent. 'Heavily indebted poor countries' and 'least developed countries', in contrast, utilise
renewable sources for 60.3 and 40.8 percent of their power generation. Australia sits near the bottom of the list, with only 10
percent of electricity consumption being sourced from renewables -- 11 percent below the world average.

Renewable Energy produces economic and environmental

benefits
Rinkesh 15 Conservative Energy Future Administrator Advantages of
Renewable Energy," July 8, http://www.conserve-energy-
future.com/advantages-and-disadvantages-of-renewable-energy.php AudKa
clean and results in little to no greenhouse and net carbon emissions. It
It is
will not deplete our natural resources and have minimal, if any, negative
impacts on the environment, with no waste products of Co2 and other, more toxic
take with different sources of energy. The environmental benefits of renewable energy
are innovative in that they will dramatically scale back on the amount of toxic
air pollution released into the atmosphere by other methods. Enables us to
protect the environment from toxic pollutions, which in turn keep people
healthier. 3. Reliable Energy Source: Our dependence on fossil fuels has increased considerably in last
few decades. The result is that our national security continues to be threatened by our dependence on fossil
fuels which are vulnerable to political instabilities, trade disputes, wars, and high prices. This impacts more
solar and wind plants are distributed over large
than just our national energy policy. Also,
geographical area and weather disruptions in one area wont cut off power to
an entire region. 4. Economic Benefits: Renewable energy is also cheaper and more
economically sound than other sources of generated energy. It is estimated
that as a result of renewable energy manufacturing, hundreds of thousands of
stable jobs will be created. Thousands of jobs have already been created in
numerous European countries like the United Kingdom and Germany , who have
adopted measures to manufacture renewable energy. Renewable energy amenities require a less amount of
Switching to renewable energy sources also
maintenance, which reduces the costs.
means that the future of our energy is returned back to the people : to
communities, families, farmers, and individuals.
 NB: Renewables Popular
Renewables popular among Americans specifically
independents
Handley 13 Meg Handley is a writer reporting on investing, energy
alternatives, and mutual funds at U.S. News & World Report, "Americans
Overwhelmingly Support Alternative Energy," April 1,
http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2013/04/01/poll-americans-
overwhelmingly-support-alternative-energyAudKa
Americans still
Despite the nation's newfound abundance of fossil fuels thanks to the so-called "Shale Gale,"
overwhelmingly support more development of alternative energy, according
to a new poll. Three-in-four Americans want the United States to pursue more
solar energy according to Gallup and another 71 percent favor further
development of wind power. Far fewer prioritized the expansion of oil production (46 percent) and nuclear
expansion (37 percent), and less than one-third of respondents supported ramping up
coal production. The survey found Americans' opinion on the nation's energy
options varied by political affiliation, with Democrats and independents
championing solar power, while natural gas was the top choice for Republicans. Almost 90 percent of
Democrats and nearly 75 percent of independents polled supported more solar power, compared to 68 percent among
Republicans. More than two-thirds of Republicans supported more development of the nation's natural gas resources,
compared to just 62 percent among independents and 59 percent of Democrats. Responses varied by geographic region
as well. Those living in the South tend to support more traditional energy sources, such as oil and coal, than those living in
more investment in solar was the top priority
other regions of the country. Nevertheless,
overall, regardless of where respondents lived and Americans "overall and
across political and socioeconomic groups generally are most likely to call for
more emphasis on solar and wind power ," the Gallup survey noted. But alternative energy sources
are still in their infancy in terms of technology and affordability according to Gallup, which means they have a long way to
go before achieving more significant contributions to U.S. domestic energy production.

Renewables overwhelmingly popular

Butterfield 15 Dara Butterfield is a global reporter from Scotland who
now focuses her stories primarily in the US and focuses on energy policy and
global warming, "Energy company polls shows popular support for onshore
renewables," May 26, Audka
A new survey has revealed strong public support and almost no opposition
to onshore wind and solar farms. The findings come a day after a government poll highlighted
public opposition to fracking, with 28% saying they actively oppose shale gas and just 3% strongly
supporting the controversial extraction technique. The results of the independent survey published today
show that solar is the most popular form of energy generation amongst the
public, with 76% of people saying they support it. Meanwhile the results show most
people back onshore wind with 59% of respondents saying that they support the
technology. Just 4% of the public are opposed to solar farms while 8% say
they are opposed to onshore wind farms. Alasdair Cameron, Renewables Campaigner,
Friends of the Earth, said: Renewable energy like wind and solar power is incredibly popular, and it is
frankly astonishing that the Government continues to make it harder for people to use it. Failing
to
back renewables now is like attacking mobile phones in the early 1990s
renewables are already far cheaper than nuclear and closing in on gas from
new power stations.
 UQ
Renewables are becoming cheap to produce and
companies are investing
Randall 16 Tom Randall is the Director of Environmental & Regulatory
Affairs of the John P. McGovern, MD Center for Environmental and Regulatory
Affairs of The National Center for Public Policy Research in Washington, DC.,
"Wind and Solar are Crushing Fossil Fuels," April 6,
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-06/wind-and-solar-are-
crushing-fossil-fuels AudKa
Wind and solar have grown seemingly unstoppable. While two years of crashing prices for oil, natural gas, and coal triggered dramatic

renewables have been thriving. Clean energy investment

downsizing in those industries,

broke new records in 2015 and is now seeing twice as much global funding as
fossil fuels. One reason is that renewable energy is becoming ever cheaper to produce. Recent solar and wind
auctions in Mexico and Morocco ended with winning bids from companies that
promised to produce electricity at the cheapest rate, from any source,
anywhere in the world, said Michael Liebreich, chairman of the advisory board for Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF).
"We're in a low-cost-of-oil environment for the foreseeable future," Liebreich said during his keynote address at the BNEF Summit in New York
on Tuesday. "Did that stop renewable energy investment? Not at all." Here's what's shaping power markets, in six charts from BNEF:

Renewables are beating fossil fuels 2 to 1 Investment in Power Capacity, 2008-2015 Investment in Power
Capacity, 2008-2015 Source: BNEF, UNEP Government subsidies have helped wind and solar get a foothold in global power markets, but

The cost of solar power has fallen to 1/150th of

economies of scale are the true driver of falling prices:

its level in the 1970s, while the total amount of installed solar has soared
115,000-fold. As solar prices fall, installations boom Source: BNEF The reason solar-power
generation will increasingly dominate: Its a technology, not a fuel. As such, efficiency

increases and prices fall as time goes on. What's more, the price of batteries
to store solar power when the sun isn't shining is falling in a similarly
stunning arc. Just since 2000, the amount of global electricity produced by solar
power has doubled seven times over. Even wind power, which was already
established, doubled four times over the same period. For the first time, the
two forms of renewable energy are beginning to compete head-to-head on
price and annual investment. An industry that keeps doubling in size Renewables share of power generation. Scale is
shown in doublings. Renewables share of power generation. Scale is shown in doublings. Source: BNEF Meanwhile, fossil fuels have been
getting killed by falling prices and, more recently, declining investment. It started with coalit used to be that lower prices increased demand
for fossil fuels, but coal prices apparently can't fall fast enough. Richer OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development)
countries have been reducing demand for almost a decade. In China, coal power has also flattened. Only developing countries with rapidly
expanding energy demands are still adding coal, though at a slowing rate. Coal phases out in wealthier countries first What does that look like
on a country-level basis? The world's first coal superpower, the U.K., now produces less power from coal than it has since at least 1850. Canary
in the coal mine: U.K. Source: BNEF Source: BNEF More recently it's the oil and gas industry that's been under attack. Prices have tumbled and
investments have started drying up. The number of oil rigs active in the U.S. fell last month to the lowest since records began in the 1940s.
Producersfrom tiny frontier drillers to massive petrol-producing nation-statesare creeping ever closer to insolvency. "What we're talking
about is miscalculation of risk," said BNEF's Liebreich. "We're talking about a business model that is predicated on never-ending growth, a
business model that is predicated on being able to find unlimited supplies of capital." The chart below shows independent oil producers and
their ability to pay their debt.1 The pink quadrant at the bottom right represents the greatest threat to a company's solvency. By 2015, that
quadrant starts to fill up, and Liebreich warned, "It's going to get uglier." U.S. oil patch heads to the insolvency zone Source: BNEF Source:
BNEF Oil and gas woes are driven less by renewables than by a mismatch of too much supply and too little demand. But with renewable
energy expanding at record rates and with more efficient carsincluding all-electric vehiclessiphoning off oil profits at the margins, the
fossil-fuel insolvency zone is only going to get more crowded, according to BNEF. Natural gas will still be needed for when the sun isn't shining
and the wind isn't blowing, but even that will change as utility-scale batteries grow cheaper. The best minds in energy keep underestimating

Since 2000, the International Energy Agency has raised its

what solar and wind can do.

long-term solar forecast 14 times and its wind forecast five times. Every time
global wind power doubles, there's a 19 percent drop in cost, according to
BNEF, and every time solar power doubles, costs fall 24 percent. And while
BNEF says the shift to renewable energy isn't happening fast enough to avoid
the catastrophic legacy of fossil-fuel dependenceclimate changeit's
definitely happening.
Aff
 Renewables Fail
Renewables Fail cant cut CO2 emissions and cause
economic collapse
Page 14 Lewis Page is a journalist and author, covering many beats
including aerospace, defense, enterprise and consumer IT, science, energy,
transport and business, "Renewable energy 'simply WON'T WORK': Top
Google engineers," Nov14,
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/11/21/renewable_energy_simply_wont_wor
k_google_renewables_engineers AudKa
Two highly qualified Google engineers who have spent years studying and
trying to improve renewable energy technology have stated quite bluntly that
renewables will never permit the human race to cut CO2 emissions to the
levels demanded by climate activists. Whatever the future holds, it is not a
renewables-powered civilisation: such a thing is impossible . Both men are Stanford PhDs, Ross
Koningstein having trained in aerospace engineering and David Fork in applied physics. These aren't guys who fiddle about with websites or data analytics or "technology"
of that sort: they are real engineers who understand difficult maths and physics, and top-bracket even among that distinguished company. The duo were employed at

RE<C was
Google on the RE<C project, which sought to enhance renewable technology to the point where it could produce energy more cheaply than coal.

a failure, and Google closed it down after four years . Now, Koningstein and Fork have explained the
conclusions they came to after a lengthy period of applying their considerable technological expertise to renewables, in an article posted at IEEE Spectrum. The two men
write: At the start of RE<C, we had shared the attitude of many stalwart environmentalists: We felt that with steady improvements to todays renewable energy

we
technologies, our society could stave off catastrophic climate change. We now know that to be a false hope ... Renewable energy technologies simply wont work;

need a fundamentally different approach. One should note that RE<C didn't restrict itself
to conventional renewable ideas like solar PV, windfarms, tidal, hydro etc. It
also looked extensively into more radical notions such as solar-thermal,
geothermal, "self-assembling" wind towers and so on and so forth. There's no
get-out clause for renewables believers here. Koningstein and Fork aren't alone. Whenever somebody with a decent
grasp of maths and physics looks into the idea of a fully renewables-powered civilised future for the human race with a reasonably open mind, they normally come to the
conclusion that it simply isn't feasible. Merely generating the relatively small proportion of our energy that we consume today in the form of electricity is already an
insuperably difficult task for renewables: generating huge amounts more on top to carry out the tasks we do today using fossil-fuelled heat isn't even vaguely plausible.

so much renewable generation and

Even if one were to electrify all of transport, industry, heating and so on,

balancing/storage equipment would be needed to power it that astronomical

new requirements for steel, concrete, copper, glass, carbon fibre,
neodymium, shipping and haulage etc etc would appear. All these things are made using
mammoth amounts of energy: far from achieving massive energy savings,
which most plans for a renewables future rely on implicitly, we would wind up
needing far more energy, which would mean even more vast renewables
farms - and even more materials and energy to make and maintain them and
so on. The scale of the building would be like nothing ever attempted by the
human race. In reality, well before any such stage was reached, energy would become horrifyingly
expensive - which means that everything would become horrifyingly
expensive (even the present well-under-one-per-cent renewables level in the UK has pushed up utility bills very considerably). This in turn
means that everyone would become miserably poor and economic growth
would cease (the more honest hardline greens admit this openly). That, however, means that such expensive luxuries as welfare states and pensioners,
proper healthcare (watch out for that pandemic), reasonable public services, affordable manufactured goods and transport, decent personal hygiene, space programmes

(watch out for the meteor!) etc etc would all have to go - none of those things are sustainable without
economic growth.
Market Barriers prevent development
Moskovitz 16 David Moskovitz is an energy and regulatory consultant,
whose clients include the U.S. Department of. Energy, NARUC, and many U.S.
and. Canadian utilities, "Barriers to Renewable Energy Technologies," April 1,
http://www.ucsusa.org/clean_energy/smart-energy-solutions/increase-
renewables/barriers-to-renewable-energy.html#.V4FDKfkrLIU AudKa
Market research shows that many customers will purchase renewable power even if it costs somewhat more than conventional power.[1]

both economic theory and experience point to significant market

However,

barriers and market failures that will limit the development of renewables unless
special policy measures are enacted to encourage that development.[2] These hurdles can be grouped into four categories:

commercialization barriers faced by new technologies competing with mature

technologies price distortions from existing subsidies and unequal tax
burdens between renewables and other energy sources failure of the market
to value the public benefits of renewables market barriers such as inadequate
information, lack of access to capital, "split incentives" between building
owners and tenants, and high transaction costs for making small purchases
Commercialization Barriers To compete against mature fossil fuel and nuclear technologies renewables must overcome two major barriers to

will
commercialization: undeveloped infrastructure and lack of economies of scale. Infrastructure Developing new renewable resources

require large initial investments to build infrastructure . These investments increase the
cost of providing renewable electricity, especially during early years . Examples
include Prospecting: Developers must find publicly acceptable sites with good resources and with access to transmission lines.

Potential wind sites can require several years of monitoring to determine whether they are suitable. Permitting: Permitting issues for
conventional energy technologies are generally well understood, and the process and standards for review are well defined. In contrast,
renewables often involve new types of issues and ecosystem impacts. And standards are still in the process of development.

Marketing: In the past, individuals had no choices about the sources of their electricity. But electricity deregulation has opened the
market so that customers have a variety of choices. Start-up companies must communicate the benefits of renewables to customers in order
to persuade them to switch from traditional sources. Public education will be a critical part of a fully functioning market if renewables are to

succeed. Installation, operation, and maintenance : Workers must be trained to install, operate, and maintain
new technologies, as well as to grow and transport biomass fuels. Some renewables need operating experience in regional climate conditions
before performance can be optimized. For example, the optimal spacing of wind turbines is likely to be different on New England ridgelines
than on agricultural land in the Midwest.
 Links to Elections
General Public does not support Hillarys renewables plan
CP links to the DA
Adler 15 Ben Adler is a journalist in New York City where he covers
environmental politics and policy, with a focus on climate change, energy and
urban development, "Hillary Clinton has a renewable energy plan, but she still
needs one for fossil fuels," July 28, http://grist.org/climate-energy/hillary-
clinton-has-a-renewable-energy-plan-but-she-still-needs-one-for-fossil-fuels-2/
AudKa
Theres an argument to be made that the president must not overplay his or
her [their] hand. Perhaps doing everything theoretically possible to clamp down
on fossil fuels would be too unpopular with the public, which tends to favor
both fossil fuel production and carbon regulation. But wherever the strongest negotiating position
might be, it surely isnt giving the fossil fuel industry what it wants without getting anything in return before the negotiation has even begun.
Human Rights Credibility
 1NC Shell
Counterplan: the United States Federal Government
should issue an assessment of international human rights
conditions that includes extensive self-criticism

American self-criticism on human rights violations key to

HR cred
Carasik 14 (Lauren Carasik is a clinical professor of law and the director of
the international human rights clinic at the Western New England University
School of Law. AlJazeera: Human rights for thee but not for me published
March 12th, 2014. Accessed July 8th, 2016.
http://america.aljazeera.com/opinions/2014/3/the-us-lacks-
moralauthorityonhumanrights.html) Fedora
Secretary of State John Kerry unveiled the State Departments
Last month U.S.
comprehensive annual assessment of human rights around the globe. It
painted a grim picture of pervasive violations. Notably absent from the
report, however, was any discussion of Washingtons own record on
human rights. The report elicited sharp rebukes from some of the countries
singled out for criticism. Many of them questioned the United States
legitimacy as self-appointed global champion of human rights . China
issued its own report, 154 pages long, excoriating the U.S. record on human rights
and presenting a list of Washingtons violations . Egypts Foreign Ministry called the report
unbalanced and nonobjective and censured the U.S. for appointing itself the worlds watchdog. Ecuador,
Russia and Iran also criticized the report. By signaling that the world cares about human rights violations,
the report provides a useful tool for advocates.While the omission of any internal
critique is unsurprising, that stance ultimately undermines the State
Departments goals of promoting human rights abroad. Abuses
unfolding around the world demand and deserve condemnation. But
it is difficult for the U.S. to don the unimpeachable mantle, behave
hypocritically and still maintain credibility. North-south schism It is tempting to
dismiss the scolding as retaliatory howls by authoritarian states, but their critiques have long
been echoed by others. Pointing to simmering divisions over human rights standards, China argued
that developing countries face a different set of challenges from their more developed counterparts. This
ideological debate has permeated rights discourse and often underscores a north-south schism. The divide
has its roots in the history of human rights.In 1945, still reeling from the atrocities of World War II,
world powers gathered in Paris to forge a multilateral agreement that would
form the foundation of freedom, justice and peace in the world. Those
principles were enshrined in the nonbinding Universal Declaration of Human
Rights (UDHR). The U.N. then adopted two covenants that would have the
force of law: one focused on civil and political rights and the other on
economic, social and cultural rights. Together with the UDHR, they form the
International Bill of Human Rights. The covenants were meant to be universal, interdependent
and indivisible and equally treated, but they do not exist in a political vacuum. Although the U.S.
was instrumental in creating this international framework, it has resisted
conforming to many of the norms for which there is an emerging international
consensus. The U.S. holds sacred its commitment to civil and political rights, such as those protected
by its robust and revered Bill of Rights and proclaims itself a beacon of freedom and justice in the world.
Critics argue that the rhetoric exceeds the reality on the ground. Economic and social rights are far more
States must
contested, in part because they require affirmative duties that affect resource allocation:
take progressive action toward providing housing, food, education, health
care and a host of other rights. The U.S. has been singularly unwilling to
ratify key international human rights instruments, reinforcing its status as an
outlier in the field. The U.S. purports to be evenhanded. But geopolitical
interests influence the tenor and content of its assessments, leading some
critics to accuse the U.S. of sacrificing human rights at the altar of political
expediency. For example, the U.S. has been accused of blunting its appraisal of allies such as Saudi
Arabia, Bahrain, Mexico, Uzbekistan, Honduras and Israel. Economic interests also factor in. Critics decry
the sale of arms to countries that by Washingtons own assessment are complicit in human rights abuses.
While politically and economically self-interested maneuvering is inevitable, not all countries issue an
ostensibly definitive and unvarnished report on the state of global human rights. In December during
Human Rights Week, U.S. President Barack Obama issued a proclamation reaffirming the United States
unwavering support for the principles enshrined in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Yet
global headlines are dominated by high-profile U.S. human rights
transgressions indefinite detention at Guantnamo Bay, torture,
extraordinary rendition, extrajudicial assassination by drones that claims the
lives of innocents in addition to its targets, the aggressive pursuit of whistle-
blowers and data collection that violates privacy both at home and abroad.
Advocates criticize a litany of other human rights abuses, such as mass
incarceration (the U.S. has 5 percent of the worlds population but 25 percent
of its inmates, with disproportionate representation among minority groups),
the death penalty (including post-execution revelations that raise serious
doubt about already questionable convictions), racial profiling, the
disenfranchisement of felons, sentences of life without parole for juvenile
offenders, gun violence, solitary confinement, the shackling of pregnant
inmates and many others.

The counterplan doesnt directly engage with China,

which means the ______ DA doesnt link to it.
(Insert any DA here with an engagement link: appeasement, high standards,
Japan, or Taiwan are just a handful of the DAs you could run with this)
 2NC Extension Shell
The CP has the United States federal government issue an international
report on human rights and for the first time identify the US as engaging in
human rights violations, this is the first step towards removing the current
hypocracy and reverse the alt causes by moving them to forefront- that is
carasik 2014

US double standards on human rights prevent us from

addressing them. Only self-criticism ends that double
standard.
Nanfang Daily 14 (Nanfang Daily is one of the least restricted press
outlets in China. Nanfang Daily: Lets See Americas Real Face as a Human
Rights Defender Published December 12th 2014. Accessed July 9th 2016.
http://watchingamerica.com/WA/2014/12/19/lets-see-americas-real-face-as-a-
human-rights-defender/) Fedora
Dec. 10 is World Human Rights Day. The United States, which has always prided itself
on being a human rights defender, is now drowning in criticism because of its
prisoner torture scandal. The U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee recently had to release the CIA
torture report because of internal and external pressure, something that should have been done more
than six months ago. The report included details of the torture widely in use after 9/11, exposed
the severe human rights violations in the United States, and completely
removed the mask of hypocrisy the U.S. wore as a so-called human rights
defender. Article 5 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights declares, No one shall be subjected
to torture or to cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment. Yet, even after the declaration was
passed, the United States has publicly refused to follow its principles. After 9/11, the U.S. president at the
time, George W. Bush, approved the CIA's use of extreme interrogation methods on fundamentalist
suspects, so that U.S. laws did not need to be followed, and the suspects did not need to be given
In fact, during actual operations, the CIA's interrogation methods
protection.
widely surpassed Bushs approved and legal criteria. Just as the report has
revealed, waterboarding, sleep deprivation, sexual abuse, and other torture
methods, although long-banned by the United Nations, were actively used by
the CIA, and they were just the tip of the iceberg. While the CIA's methods
have been widely criticized, no U.S. officials have been penalized for them , and
numerous Republican senators and Bush-era administrators have even exclaimed that the report is
nonsense. For the U.S. government, promoting hegemonism rude interference in the sovereignty of
other countries and the use of torture methods is nothing new. The United States has always used the
banner of counterterrorism for the past 10-plus years to trample on the human rights of other countries. In
Afghanistan and Iraq, scandals of the U.S. militarys prisoner abuse, accidental killings of civilians, and
even corpse abuse have never stopped. In Guantanamo Bay, brutal interrogation methods used on
prisoners were exposed in 2004. Such evidence exposed the blatant U.S. disrespect for the human rights
of other countries. Within the United States, the record of human rights is just as despicable. The recent
New York and Ferguson riots and protests have shown the fundamental racism problems in the United
States, the American societys double-standards for people of different races, and the deep-rooted, unfair
treatment of African-Americans. In addition, the neverending shooting incidents and the long-term, large-
scale surveillance of the United States via the PRISM program, all managed to show the real face of the
No countrys human rights record is flawless. However, the
human rights defender.
United States is used to standing on the moral high ground and habitually
criticizing and commenting on the human rights issues of other countries and
regions, while obscuring and not discussing its own human rights situation .
Even as the prisoner abuse scandal worsened, the U.S. government still shamelessly tried to dictate for
other countries. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and U.S. Ambassador to China Max Baucus released a
statement on World Human Rights Day, expressing their concern for human rights in China. We know that
a countrys own people have the most right to speak about the situation, so how could we allow a country
with a tattered record to be the arbitrator, and let it act like a saint, criticizing others? Ever since the
Peoples Republic of China was founded, especially in the 30-plus years after its opening up and reforming,
human rights in China have made great strides a fact that anyone without any political prejudice can
admit. The U.S. disregard for the truth and smearing of China could only expose its own hypocrisy and
double-standard on human rights. The United States is a typical detractor on
Chinas human rights, and it never sees, nor admits, its own
shortcomings. The U.S. government has always used a double-standard ,
whether for human rights, counterterrorism, trade or other areas; it has always given
itself the most leeway and harshly treated others . It can be said that the
human rights defender mask the United States wears has long been shed, but the U.S. is still relaxed and
willful. It will let domestic and international society keep on criticizing its record, while still sticking to the
status quo, without any self-criticism and reflection, and continues to smear other countries from time to
time. I wonder how the United States got its nerve and confidence, and what its using to improve its
A country that cannot really understand the real
international image and soft power?
meaning of human rights, nor see the improvement of other countries in the
area, other than adding noncredible, negative feedback to other countries,
can only bring disorder, conflict and instability to international society. It is
time for the United States to shift its attention to its domestic situation, look
at its own problems, seriously reflect and correct its human rights problems,
and stop its baseless accusations of other countries.

Even if we dont win short term US domestic reform, the

act of clarifying the difference between a human rights
abuse and simply cultural differences enables a strong
international framework for US human rights credibility.

Posner 14 (Eric Posner is a professor at the University of Chicago Law

School. The Guardian: The case against human rights published December
4th, 2014. Accessed July 9th, 2016.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2014/dec/04/-sp-case-against-human-
rights) Fedora
Orconsider, as another example, the right to freedom of expression. From a
global perspective, the right to freedom of expression is hotly contested. The
US takes this right particularly seriously, though it makes numerous
exceptions for fraud, defamation, and obscenity. In Europe, most
governments believe that the right to freedom of expression does not extend
to hate speech. In many Islamic countries, any kind of defamation of Islam is
not protected by freedom of speech. Human rights law blandly acknowledges
that the right to freedom of expression may be limited by considerations of
public order and morals. But a government trying to comply with the
international human right to freedom of expression is given no specific
guidance whatsoever. Thus, the existence of a huge number of vaguely
defined rights ends up giving governments enormous discretion . If a
government advances one group of rights, while neglecting others, how does one tell whether it complies
with the treaties the best it can or cynically evades them? The central problem with
human rights law is that it is hopelessly ambiguous The reason these
kinds of problems arise on the international but not on the national
level is that within countries, the task of interpreting and defining vaguely
worded rights, and making trade-offs between different rights, is delegated to
trusted institutions. It was the US supreme court, for example, that decided that
freedom of speech did not encompass fraudulent, defamatory, and obscene
statements. The American public accepted these judgments because they
coincided with their moral views and because the court enjoys a high degree
of trust. In principle, international institutions could perform this same function. But the
international institutions that have been established for this
purpose are very weak. In truly international human rights
institutions, such as the UN human rights council, there is a drastic
lack of consensus between nations. To avoid being compelled by international
institutions to recognise rights that they reject, countries give them little power. The multiple
institutions lack a common hierarchical superior unlike national courts and
thus provide conflicting interpretations of human rights, and cannot compel
nations to pay attention to them. That is why, for instance, western countries have been able
to disregard the human rights councils endorsement of defamation of religion, the idea that criticism of
Islam and other religions violates the human rights of those who practice those religions.
 AT china dont care
China has specifically outlined hypocricy in Human Rights
analysis as an obstruction of American Human Rights
Credibility.
Baculinao 4/14 (Eric Baculinao is the Beijing bureau chief at NBC News.
NBC News China on U.S. Criticism on Human Rights: 'Hold Up a Mirror
published April/14/2016. Accessed July 8th 2016.
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/china/china-u-s-criticism-human-rights-hold-
mirror-n555826) Fedora
BEIJING China condemned America's human-rights record on Thursday, alluding to the
White House campaign and suggesting that "money politics and family politics went from bad to worse."
The broadside came amid heightening tensions in the South China Sea where the U.S. is conducting war
China's document was prepared by a
games with the Philippines to counter China's maritime claims.
was a response to a
Cabinet office and was released by the state-run Xinhua News Agency. It
global human-rights survey issued Wednesday by the State Department which
criticized China and other countries. The U.S. report cited China's "particularly severe"
crackdown on the legal community and "extralegal measures" of enforced disappearances and house
arrest against government critics. "The United States made comments on the
human-rights situation in many countries while being tight-lipped
about its own terrible human-rights record and showing not a bit of
intention to reflect on it," Xinhua said. "Since the U.S. government
refused to hold up a mirror to look at itself, it has to be done with other
people's help." China alleged the "wanton infringement" of civil rights and
"rampant gun-related crimes" in the United States, citing a toll of 13,136 killed and 26,493
injured by gun violence last year. Xinhua said 965 people had shot dead by U.S.
police. "The frequent occurrence of shooting incidents was the deepest impression left to the world
concerning the United States in 2015," the news agency said. It added that 560,000 people
were homeless and said that 33 million Americans didn't have health
insurance. The report has tallied more than 6,000 airstrikes in Syria and
Iraq, allegedly causing "between 1,695 and 2,239" civilian deaths.
Aff answers
 Plan solves better
Chinas undermines HR cred of other countries worldwide:
addressing them directly is key
Breslin and Sceats 12 (Shaun Breslin is an Associate Fellow, Asia
Program at Chatham House and Professor of Politics and International Studies
at Warwick University. Sonya Sceats is an Associate Fellow, International Law
at Chatham House. She specializes in human rights issues. Chatham House:
China and the International Human Rights System published in October of
2012. Accessed July 9th, 2016.) Fedora
Chinas successful manoeuvring within the UN Commission on Human Rights
was an inspiration for other states attempting to shield themselves from
scrutiny. By the turn of the century, seeking and securing election to this body was de rigueur for
chronic violators such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Libya, Sudan, Saudi Arabia and Zimbabwe.
In 2005, UN SecretaryGeneral Kofi Annan publicly warned the Commission that its poor performance was
casting a stain on the reputation of the UN as a whole, and in the same year the General Assembly voted
to abolish it and replace it with a Human Rights Council. China understood that the creation of the Human
Rights Council was both a threat and an opportunity for its agenda to avoid censure, and it engaged
heavily in the institution-building negotiations. Its main argument was that processes geared towards
finger-pointing should be replaced by dialogue and cooperation. When it became clear that country
resolutions would continue to form part of the Councils toolbox, China strenuously lobbied for a procedural
provision requiring, first, support from one-third of the membership before such a resolution could be
tabled and, second, support from two-thirds of the membership for adoption.49 This proposal was not
accepted, although a responsibility was placed on states proposing country resolutions to ensure the
broadest possible support for their initiatives (preferably 15 members), a measure widely perceived as an
effort to spare embarrassment for China.50 China also sought to clip the wings of the special procedures
that had emerged as among the strongest of the Commissions mechanisms. The special procedures were
maintained, but a review was commissioned in order to explore, among other things, how they could be
strengthened and rationalized. The Human Rights Councils flagship universal periodic review (UPR)
process, requiring every member state of the UN to participate in a peer evaluation of its human rights
performance, can be seen as consistent with Chinas long-term insistence that means should be found to
promote dialogue and cooperation on human rights matters, even if stronger enforcement tools such as
country resolutions were retained. It was agreed that the UPR would be conducted in an objective,
transparent, non-selective, constructive, non-confrontational and non-politicized manner and that, without
prejudice to a states legal obligations, the review would take into account the level of development and
specificities of countries.51 In a context where there is strong political reluctance to stimulate initiatives
targeting China (see below), the opportunity afforded by UPR for the Council to hold a three-hour
discussion of human rights in China has been welcomed by many diplomats and NGOs. From the
perspective of Chinas interests, the most advantageous aspect of the transition to the Council lay,
however, in the new equitable geographical distribution of seats, with a greater share of seats (26 out of
47) for the Asia and Africa groups from which it had traditionally secured its support, and a diminution of
the Wests share to just seven seats (a further six states were for the group of East European states). China
was among the first states elected to the Council at its launch in 2006 and was re-elected in 2009. At the
end of 2012 it will stand down after serving the maximum two consecutive terms. This provides an ideal
opportunity for a stocktaking and evaluation of Chinas contributions during the first six years. An empirical
study of Chinas activities within the Council up to and including the 20th regular session between 18 June
and 6 July 2012 makes it possible to assess its position in that body. Chinas formal activities are examined
via an analysis of session reports, other documentation and webcasts of the Councils first 20 regular
sessions and 19 special sessions, supplemented by insights into Chinas informal activities shared by
diplomats, other government and UN officials, and human rights NGOs active in Geneva. The remainder of
this chapter sets out the findings of this study. Is China untouchable in the Human Rights Council?
Chinas human rights record has received remarkably little attention
in the Human Rights Council despite strong evidence of serious
human rights abuses in recent years, including crackdowns on Tibetan and
Uighur protesters, and on intellectuals, lawyers and political activists
associated with both the Charter 08 movement and efforts to spark a Chinese
Jasmine revolution in 2011. Although these and other episodes of repression
have made international headlines, the situation of human rights in
China has remained firmly off the Councils agenda. Clearly this reflects the
new balance of power within the Human Rights Council, but there is also a sense of defeatism among
many Western diplomats about the utility of using even an unsuccessful China resolution as a lever. One
senior European diplomat in Geneva said that these days no one would dare table a resolution on
the Chinese government has managed to dissuade states
China52 and another that
from action now people dont even raise it .53 A small number of diplomats expressed a
view that more should be done to increase the focus on China in the
Council, especially given the ineffectiveness of the bilateral human
rights dialogues (see below), but they concede that vehicles other than a resolution would need
to be found. Despite this failure to table a China resolution, the country is often
criticized by Western states during general debates under various agenda
items, including item 4 on Human rights situations that require the Councils
attention. China invariably demands a right of reply and defends its record
while also retaliating against its critics. For example, when Sweden raised concerns about
the violent suppression of protesters in Tibet in 2008, China justified its efforts to maintain its national
integrity while ensuring security in Tibet and retorted that [a]cts of violence against children in Sweden
were alarming and the Swedish Government should rather take actions in this regard.55 After the EU
responded to Chinas crackdown on Uighur protesters in Xinjiang in July 2009 by emphasizing the
importance of freedom of expression, the right to peaceful assembly and the rights of detainees, China
responded by describing the protests as violent crimes organized by separatists and expressed its great
concern about discrimination against Roma and other ethnic minorities and migrants in EU member states
and the incitement of religious hatred in the fight against terrorism.56 Chinas strongest counter-attacks
are, however, directed at the United States.58 In 2008, after the latter raised concerns about Tibet in a
general debate under an agenda item concerning the Vienna Declaration and Programme of Action, China,
after interrupting three times to object on a point of order, protested that the Tibet issue is solely Chinas
internal affair, it falls outside the purview of the Council (the Chinese government and many ordinary
Chinese people regard any support for the Dalai Lama by other states as a calculated attempt to damage
Chinas interests rather than an act of principle stemming from a genuine desire to promote human rights).
Addressing the US delegation directly, the Chinese delegate declared: You should reflect on your record of
massive violation of human rights in Iraq and other places in the world. One may ask what other country in
the world dares to violate human rights so blatantly.59 In 2010, after the United States mentioned Chinas
clampdowns on ethnic minorities, human rights activists and public-interest lawyers in its item 4
statement, China replied by highlighting the gross problem of domestic violence, and a huge gap between
rich and poor as well as racial discrimination and the systematic violation of the rights of indigenous
China objected that various criticisms in the
peoples.60 In a session later that year,
Council by the United States and EU ran counter to the spirit of the human
rights dialogues, thereby reminding the West of the origins of these dialogues
in political deals designed to end confrontation with China in the
Commission.61 Any criticism of China in the Human Rights Council by the
High Commissioner or the special procedures similarly meets with a robust response. For
instance, in late 2009 when the current High Commissioner, Navi Pillay, condemned Chinas use of
violence in the context of the disturbances in Xinjiang and Tibet, China rebuked her both for point[ing]
fingers at sovereign states and for straying from the principles of objectivity and impartiality and
mandate given to [the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, OHCHR] by the General
China seeks to avoid negative attention from the special
Assembly.62
procedures by restricting their access to the country. Despite pressure from
the EU and Western states during the human rights dialogues, China has
refused to issue a standing invitation to the special procedures and defends
this in terms of its sovereignty.63 Any criticism from those allowed to visit
China is rejected. Even the Special Rapporteur on the right to food, a mandate that China has
warmly supported, was accused of unfounded analysis and misunderstanding the Chinese system after
raising concerns about food security for vulnerable groups including nomadic people in the autonomous
regions and internal migrant workers.64 When the Special Rapporteurs on torture and on human rights
while countering terrorism, and the Working Groups on arbitrary detention and on enforced or involuntary
disappearances, criticized Chinas detention practices in their joint report on secret detention in the
China joined a number of developing and developed
counter-terrorism context,
states in expressing concern about the methodology of the study and
refused the allegations in the report against the authorities in China.65

YOU SHOULD INSERT IMPACT CALC OF YOUR CASE VERSUS THE NET BENEFIT
DISAD(S) HERE!
 HR Cred Fails
International HR cred no longer matters: the US does
better when it goes alone on Human Rights
Schaefer 12 (Brett D. Schaefer is the Jay Kingham Fellow in International
Regulatory Affairs at Heritage's Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom.
Heritage: Issue Brief #3717 on United Nations. The U.N. Human Rights
Council Does Not Deserve U.S. Support published September 5 th, 2012.
Accessed July 9th, 2016.
http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2012/09/the-un-human-rights-
council-does-not-deserve-us-support) Fedora
The African Unions decision to nominate Sudan for the United Nations
Human Rights Council (HRC) elicited justifiable outrage. Pressure from human rights
groups and governments led Kenya to announce its own election bid, causing Sudan to withdraw. This was
a welcome development; the notion of the genocidal government sitting on the most visible U.N. human
rights body was outrageous. However,notorious human rights violators like Cuba,
China, and Russia currently sit on the Council; and even after Sudans
withdrawal, other African countries with dismal human rights records remain
virtually assured of election. The lack of membership standards is a key
reason behind the Councils poor record and, sadly, there is little
chance for establishing such standards. The Administrations current
strategy of focusing limited diplomatic capital on annually blocking a
particularly egregious country while other, only slightly less objectionable
states win election is a losing game. Instead of lending credibility to this
flawed institution, the U.S. should seek to eliminate it and work to establish a
more effective human rights body with rigorous membership standards.
Sudanese Candidacy: Emblematic of Fundamental Flaws Sudan has a repressive government
accused of massive human rights violations, including genocide in Darfur and
brutally repressing ethnic and religious minorities in other parts of the
country. Sudan deserves intense scrutiny by the Council; it should not be
passing judgment on other states records as a HRC member. Nonetheless,
until Kenya announced its decision to run, Sudan was nearly certain to win a
seat on the Council. This was due to the absence of meaningful membership
standards provided by the General Assembly when it established the HRC:[1]
Council members must be U.N. member states. The 47 Council seats would be allocated by regional group:
13 for Africa; 13 for Asia; 6 for Eastern Europe; 8 for Latin America and the Caribbean; and 7 for Western
Europe and other states (WEOG). Countries would be elected by secret ballot and must receive an absolute
majority in the General Assembly (97 out of 193 countries). Conversely, it takes a two-thirds vote (129
votes) to suspend the rights of membership in the Council [for] gross and systematic violations of human
rights. Countries would be elected for three-year terms, with a third of the seats being elected annually.
Countries may serve a maximum of two consecutive terms (six years), after which they shall not be
eligible for immediate re-election, and have to wait at least one year before seeking another term.
Countries were urged to take into account the contribution of candidates to
the promotion and protection of human rights and their voluntary pledges
and commitments made thereto. However, this is not mandatory. Clean Slate
Candidacy Because there are no meaningful human rights standards,
any countryeven those with deplorable records like Sudanare eligible.
Regional groups frequently game the system to facilitate their candidacies by offering the same number of
candidates as there are open seats. This practice, referred to as offering a clean slate, maximizes the
chances for each candidate to receive the 97 vote majority necessary to win a seat. This was the situation
before Kenya was convinced to run by human rights groups and governments opposed to Sudans
candidacy.[2] The Africa Group offered five candidates for the five open African seats on the Council.[3]
With only five candidates for five seats, Sudan was a virtual lock to win. When Kenya entered, the African
slate became competitive.[4] Sudan decided to withdraw shortly after, likely to avoid the embarrassment
of losing. Sudans withdrawal is obviously positive. However, none of the 2013 African candidates have
good human rights records. Freedom House ranks Cote dIvoire, Gabon, and Ethiopia as not free, and
Sierra Leone and Kenya as merely partly free.[5] Thus, even though Sudan has withdrawn, when
combined with previously elected countries the African group will be represented on the Council in 2013 by
seven not free countries (more than in any previous year), four partly free countries, and only 2 free
Deficiencies in membership are one of the key reasons behind the
countries.
Councils fundamental shortcomings: bias against Israel, willful inattention to
serious human rights situations, and a weak and politicized Universal Periodic
Review (UPR).[6] The lack of meaningful membership standards are likely
permanent after nearly all of the substantive reform proposalsincluding U.S.
proposals establishing stronger criteria for candidates and requiring regions
to offer competitive slateswere rejected during the 2011 review.[7] Bereft of
institutional filters, those opposed to human rights violators being elected to the HRC are forced to mount
annual campaigns hoping to block their election. But not every unworthy candidate can be the focus of
such an effort, thus only the most egregious are targeted each year while the slightly less awful candidates
win election. The 2013 candidates likely to win election with poor to terrible human rights records are: Cote
dIvoire, Ethiopia, Gabon, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Pakistan, Sierra Leone, United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela.
[8] 2013: A Brief Window of Opportunity Africa is not the only region to offer a clean slate to ensure that
countries with poor human rights records have greater chances of winning a seat on the Council. Every
region except WEOG has offered the same number of candidates as vacancies in 2013. This situation,
along with the fact that Freedom House ranks all five WEOG candidates (for three vacancies) as free,
makes projecting the human rights composition of the Council for 2013 simple: the number of free
countries should increase from 20 to 23 and the number of not free countries should decrease from 12 to
10. This improvement is not due to more prudent selection, but from the requirement for countries that
served two consecutive terms to cycle off the Council for at least one year. This means that not free
countries like Cameroon, China, Cuba, Russia, and Saudi Arabiawhose terms end in 2012cannot run for
China, Cuba, and Russia have been instrumental in
re-election this year.
undermining the work of the Council and their 2013 absence could open a
brief window for a more effective Council before they are almost certainly re-
elected next year. However, this temporary opportunity should not be
confused with fundamental improvement. Council membership is likely to
reach new lows in 2014, when those countries are eligible to return. The brevity
of the potential window speaks volumes. Moreover, considering the number of countries
with deplorable human rights records cycling off the Council, it is
disappointing that the membership is set to improve so little in 2013. Time
for a New Approach The U.S. should reject this institutionalized bias,
mediocrity, and ineffectiveness. Instead, the U.S. should: Not seek
re-election and eschew the Council unless direct U.S interests are involved; Propose
eliminating the Council and shifting its responsibilitiessuch as receiving the reports of the special
and Establish a more effective alternative
proceduresto the 3rd Committee;
body outside the U.N. to examine and promote human rights
practices. The Obama Administration has sought to positively influence the Council, but these efforts
have rarely been successful and, when so, modest. Most notably, the 2011 review failed to institute
the HRC will continue to be
meaningful reforms, particularly membership standards. As a result,
dysfunctional, differing only in degrees from disappointing to shameful, and
fall far short of the standard that the premier U.N. human rights body should
meet.
Korean Econ- Deregulate
 1NC
South Korean Econ CP
CP Text: South Korea should ease regulations on its
service sectors to induce tangible economic growth

S. Korea needs bold deregulation of service markets to

substantially increase GDP and solve dip in economy
experts urge quick decision time
Yonhap 16 [ June 30, 2016, Yonhap was established on December 19, 1980, through the merger of
Hapdong News Agency and Orient Press. It maintains various agreements with 78 non-Korean news
agencies, and also has a services-exchange agreement with North Korea's Korean Central News Agency
(KCNA) agency, signed in 2002.[1] It is the only Korean wire service that works with foreign news agencies, [2]
and provides a limited, but freely available, selection of news on its website in Korean, English, Chinese,
Japanese, Spanish, Arabic and French.
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/business/2016/06/30/0501000000AEN20160630001800320.html ]

South Korea should ramp up efforts to ease

SEOUL, June 30 (Yonhap) --
regulations on its labor, corporate and financial sectors to help
stimulate the sputtering economy, an expert said Thursday. "The level of
deregulation for the sectors has not improved much over the past 14 years," Choi Jin-woo, a professor who
"The country should push for
teaches at Korea University in Seoul, said at a seminar.
stronger deregulation to induce tangible economic growth." The Korea Economic
Research Institute (KERI) under the Federation of Korean Industries, the nation's big business lobby,
organized the seminar on deregulation tasks for the South Korean economy's
new leap forward. The professor claimed the score for South Korea's labor, financial
and corporate deregulation stood at 6.86 points out of a full 10 in 2013, up a
mere 0.6 point from 2000. Choi said an analysis of members of the Organization for
Economic Cooperation and Development shows a country's economy grows
by an additional 1.5 percentage points when it deregulates the labor,
corporate and financial sectors by 10 percent. The Park Geun-hye
administration has pushed for a series of legislation to reform four major
sectors -- labor, finance, education and public services . But the efforts have failed to
make tangible progress due to a lack of parliamentary support. In a meeting with economic ministers
Wednesday, Park again stressed the need for deregulation. "We need to make
efforts to pass the labor reform bill quickly, which will help create jobs and
thus support those who have lost jobs in the restructuring process ," she said. At
the seminar, Byun Yang-kyu, a senior KERI economist, urged the government relax
regulations on the use of labor. "Many direct regulations on the use of
manpower result in a lack of jobs for wage workers and an increase in the
number of self-employed people. Such regulations should be eased ." The
government's reform push comes as Asia's fourth-largest economy remains in the doldrums in the face of
stubbornly weak domestic demand and falling exports stemming from sagging overseas demand for its
products. On Tuesday, the finance ministry also cut its growth outlook for this year to 2.8 percent from an
earlier 3.1 percent, citing unfavorable domestic and external factors, including Britain's decision to leave
the European Union. The ministry also announced a plan to set up an extra budget of 10 trillion won
(US$8.7 billion) in the second half to bolster the sputtering economy.
Korean Gov. on board to deregulate seven service sectors
to create 250,000 jobs and bolster GDP 4.7 trillion Won
-Won= Korean currency
KITA 16 [The Korea International Trade Association(KITA) was established in 1946 with the objective of
advancing the Korean economy through trade, and is currently the largest business organization in Korea
with over 71,000 member companies. Representing the interests of Korea's global traders, KITA serves a
diverse range of roles including: providing hands-on support to trade companies, drawing trade
cooperation from the private sector, formulating new trade strategies, nurturing trade professionals and
building trade infrastructure. With a widely established network of 13 domestic offices and 10 overseas
branches in major cities, KITA has consolidated its position as a leading business organization dedicated to
assisting SMEs in gaining foreign market entry and has actively contributed towards Korea's recent
achievement of 1 trillion dollars in trade volume. 2016-07-06 S. Korean gov`t to introduce new policies to
boost services sectorhttp://www.kita.org/global/ecoView.do?seq=17071&searchWrd=&pageIndex=1]

The South Korean government would allow further deregulation in the

medical services, tourism, and financial services in an aim to bolster the
services sector and domestic demand to help create jobs and growth amid
uncertainties on the external trade front. Through the set of tax, subsidy, and
other policy incentives to seven services sectors - health and medical care,
tourism, contents, education, finance, software, and logistics , the
government hopes to create 250,000 jobs and bolster up to 0.2
percentage point in growth by 2020. The government will increase the
list of household emergency drugs such as pills for cold, indigestion, and
fever that can be sold at convenience stores to 20 from 13 items.
Telemedicine services to remote places will also be expanded. The finance
industry will be allowed to use a wider range of consumer data without
personal information such as identities for marketing and development
purpose. Overlapped red tapes on hospitality infrastructures in nature reserve
will be lifted. Selective buffer zones in mountain areas including the highland
running across the Korean Peninsula from north to south will make places for
hotels and restaurants. The government will work on developing customized
tourism packages and programs to meet needs of different nationals. Some of
the restrictions on large companies access to the software market to protect
startups and smaller companies such as Internet of Things, cloud computing,
and big data service will be relaxed. The state will ease regulations related to
personal information protection while maintaining the privacy policy to
promote big data service sector. The government will extend as many
incentives to the services sector as offered to manufacturers. It will offer an
equal scope of tax benefits to the services providers excluding a few sectors
like gambling and bar and other entertainment as reserved for
manufacturers. The budget for policy loans via seven state financial
institutions including Korea Development Bank, Industrial Bank of Korea, and
Korea Credit Guarantee Fund to services sector will be increased to
54 trillion won ($46 billion) by 2020 from 39 trillion won last year .
The services portion in government procurements will go up to 30
percent by 2020 from 18.2 percent of last year. Subsidies for research
and development would be raised to up the share in the service sector to 6
percent from 3 percent. A total of 4.7 trillion won will be earmarked for
R&D projects related to service industry until 2021.

S. Korea economic deregulation good- Boosts FDI by $20

billlion
-Specifics on what shall be deregulated and how (workforce/ labor)
- FDI =foreign direct investment
Yonhap 15 [ Aug 26, 2015, Yonhap was established on December 19, 1980, through the merger of
Hapdong News Agency and Orient Press. It maintains various agreements with 78 non-Korean news
agencies, and also has a services-exchange agreement with North Korea's Korean Central News Agency
(KCNA) agency, signed in 2002.[1] It is the only Korean wire service that works with foreign news agencies, [2]
and provides a limited, but freely available, selection of news on its website in Korean, English, Chinese,
Japanese, Spanish, Arabic and French.
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/business/2016/06/30/0501000000AEN20160630001800320.html ]

SEJONG, Aug. 26 (Yonhap) -- South Korea will ease additional regulations governing
the country's free economic zones as part of efforts to boost foreign direct
investment (FDI), the government said Wednesday. "The government will remove the
remaining red tape to help transform free economic zones into a stronghold
for foreign investment while also improving their working conditions to ensure
the inflow of advanced and trained workers," the Ministry of Trade, Industry
and Energy said in a press release. The latest measures were approved at an economy-
related ministers' meeting held in Seoul. They also follow a series of deregulation
measures aimed at attracting more foreign investment, which included
raising a ceiling on the foreign ownership of an aviation maintenance and
operations firm in an free economic zone to 100 percent from 50 percent .
Under Wednesday's steps, the government will increase the allowed ratio of foreign
employees to the total workforce to 30 percent from the current 20 percent at
any given firm in free economic zones. Such a limit on the number of foreign
workers is designed to create more jobs for local laborers, but it often creates
difficulties for foreign employers in finding local workers who are able to
speak their language, the ministry said. The government will also revise related
regulations to allow businesses in free economic zones to submit their import-
export related reports via e-mail, instead of hard copy . Such measures will help
boost the country's FDI to over US$20 billion for the first time in its history, the
ministry said. In the first seven months of the year, new FDI pledged to the country shrank 5.2 percent
from the same period last year to $10.78 billion, according to the ministry. The amount, however, marks
FDI pledges spiked
the second-highest for the cited period in the country's history. In 2014, new
30.6 percent on-year to reach a record high of $19 billion with the amount of
new FDI arriving here also surging 17.1 percent to a new high of $11.52
billion.
Restructuring and Deregulation of the Korean Economy
solves --holds the key to boosting growth potential- long
term solvency Korean economy
Kyung-ho 16 [Kim Kyung-ho is a leading journalist and analyst for the Korea Herald concerning
domestic economic problems, 2016/07/06Restructuring and deregulation holds key to boosting growth
potential http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20160706000970]

Korea needs to accelerate industrial restructuring and

[THE INVESTOR]
deregulation as its growth potential continues to weaken , economists here say.
According to the Ministry of Strategy and Finance, the Korean economy grew by 0.5 percent from a year
earlier in the first quarter of this year and fiscal spending made a 0.5 percent contribution to quarterly
growth. This means that Asias fourth-largest economy would have barely grown in the cited period without
measures to expand fiscal expenditure. The government front-loaded 60 percent of the 2016 budget in the
first half of the year to prop up the slumping economy as consumer spending and corporate investment
continued to remain sluggish. Announcing economic policy directions for the second
half of the year last week, policymakers forecast the Korean economy will
expand by 2.8 percent in 2016, on the conditions that a supplementary
budget worth 10 trillion won ($8.58 billion) and other fiscal stimulus
measures are put into place. But many economists regard the growth target, which was revised
down from the earlier projection of 3.1 percent, as still out of reach . In a report
released a day after the governments announcement, the Korea Economic Research
Institute, a private think tank, predicted the economy would grow by as low
as 2.3 percent this year. The planned supplementary budget would be the
third to be drawn up by President Park Geun-hyes administration, which has
front-loaded budgetary spending in the early part of the year since being
installed in February 2013. This repeated pattern of drawing up an extra budget to avoid a fiscal
cliff that might be caused by front-loaded fiscal expenditure has led to Koreas national debt increasing
from 489.8 trillion won in 2013 to 645.2 trillion won this year .
The ratio of national debt to
gross domestic product rose from 34.3 percent to 40.1 percent over the cited
period, according to figures from the Finance Ministry. An aggressive fiscal
input is needed to prevent the economy from being stuck in a low-
growth rut, said a ministry official, asking not to be named. Most economists agree it
is somewhat necessary to strengthen fiscal roles to bolster growth,
as domestic demand is slumping and global economic conditions are
becoming more volatile in the aftermath of the U.K.s vote last
month to leave the European Union. They note, however, the habitual reliance on short-
term fiscal stimulus unaccompanied by structural reform and deregulation has weakened the countrys
economic fundamentals. What is urgently needed is to step up efforts to
boost the countrys declining growth potential, said Lee Geun-tae, a researcher
at the LG Economic Research Institute. The gap between the governments growth
target and the actual growth rate has been widening in recent years , despite
repeated fiscal stimulus, which may be viewed as showing that Korea is losing long-term growth
momentum.The country has seen traditional manufacturing industries, which
had driven its economic expansion in the past, making less contributions or
even dragging growth. A report released by the Korea Institute for
Industrial Economics and Trade last week showed overseas
shipments by Koreas major industrial sectors, such as steel,
shipbuilding and petrochemicals, decreased at a more rapid pace
than overall exports. In the first half of this year, exports by such industries fell by
11.8 percent, while overall exports dropped by 10.8 percent . The steeper fall in
exports by the main industrial sectors stems from intensifying competition with emerging economies,
China is catching
particularly China, amid slowing growth in global trade. According to the report,
up with Korea in most of the major manufacturing sectors . With Koreas quality
competitiveness at 100, comparative figures for China range from 90 to 100
in steel, petrochemicals, textile, consumer electronics, display panels and
information and communication devices. The institute predicted Korea will be able
to keep a competitive edge over China in a small number of high-tech
products, key materials and parts after five years . Worsening economic and
industrial conditions raise an urgent need for Korea to accelerate
efforts to nurture next-generation industries that can ensure the
sustainable growth of its economy in the coming decades, experts note.
Lee Sang-geun, a professor of business administration at Sogang University in Seoul , said the
country should no longer dwell on its established position in traditional
manufacturing sectors and has to focus on areas of industrial convergence,
including artificial intelligence, robotics, drones, Internet of Things and virtual
reality technology. Korea will be left behind in the global tide if it is unable to
make a successful push to develop new industries, he said. The government
has pledged to boost long-term growth potential by matching
structural reforms in public, labor, financial and education sectors
with industrial renovation. But critics indicate this pledge has yet to be backed by
substantial and concrete support for corporate ventures into new fields that could create more
jobs for young talented people. Drastic deregulation, which has been delayed
despite policymakers active gestures, should be an essential part of this support ,
they say.

The Korean service sector is choking under piles of

regulations hampering its economic growth
KJD 15 [It runs mainly news and feature stories by staff reporters, and some stories translated from the
Korean language newspaper. The Korea JoongAng Daily is currently sold together with the International
New York Times. Mar 20, 2016 Deregulate the service
sectorhttp://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/article/Article.aspx?aid=3002141 ]

The service sector that the government promised to bolster to stimulate

growth in domestic demand and create jobs is still choking under piles of
regulations. In March last year the government pledged to reduce red tape
by a whopping 10 percent and nurture seven promising service areas by
drastically scrapping regulations. But according to a survey by the Federation
of Korean Industries, regulations in the service sector grew 13.5
percent over the past year. About 71.1 percent of the new regulations
targeted the seven promising service areas the government had identified to
promote to boost domestic demand in a big way. The government has
been discouraging - instead of encouraging - the service sector through
additional regulations. Sadly, various bills aimed at promoting the sector
have been gathering dust in the National Assembly. The Basic Law on
Services Sector Development has been pending in the legislature for nearly
three years. A bill to promote the tourism industry has also been shelved for
more than two years. It takes more than 600 days on average for a service-
related bill to pass through the legislature. The promise to revive the
economy through the revitalization of domestic demand and by creating
decent jobs for young people was just rhetoric. Companies and young job-
seekers have been hurt by the delay. According to job data just released by
Statistics Korea, joblessness among young people hit 11.1 percent in
February, the highest since the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s.
Including those who have given up on looking for jobs, the unemployment
rate went as high as 12.5 percent. The protracted slowdown in domestic
demand and the service sector combined contributed to fewer job
opportunities for the young. Needless to say, deregulation is the fastest
and easiest way to stimulate the economy and create jobs . The
effect would be immediate in the service sector. Instead of all the
rhetoric, the government and legislature must really act in order to boost the
service sector and domestic demand. Without immediate action, the
country could find itself in the middle of a lengthy stagnation and a
flood of jobless young people.

Deregulation of retail sector revives domestic demand- k2

sustainable growth
Choi Sung-jin 16 [Choi Sung-jin is a leading writer and journalist on the Business and Money
section in the Korea Times News source. Quotes Ahn Seung-ho {head of the Korea Distribution Association
(KDA0} 2016-01-25 Deregulation of retail sector revives domestic demand
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/biz/2016/01/123_196258.html]

Economists here and abroad have said that Korea needs to move
from manufacturing to services for its next economic takeoff. One
such way is to expand and upgrade the distribution sector, a pillar of the
service industry, analysts say. Korea's aging heavy industries, such as
shipbuilding, steel and petrochemicals, have been reeling from falling
demand and rising costs, and its more recent moneymakers, including
semiconductors, automobiles and mobile devices, are also seeing warning
signs in the export market amid fiercer competition with newcomers, they
note. To maintain the vigor of domestic consumption, one of two axes
boosting the national economy, the government needs to develop the retail
industry, now struggling with undue regulations and stiffer competition from
global giants, they said. "By deregulating the distribution sector, the
government can increase investment, employment and
consumption," an industry executive said. They cited E-mart Town in Ilsan,
north of Seoul, which opened last June, as an example. The hypermarket, 2.5
times larger than a football stadium, is a complex of home appliances,
groceries, restaurants and leisure activities, the only discount outlet in the
nation that had cars lining up to enter it even before it opened. It has
everything from culinary hot spots to drone and robot stores, attracting
consumers of all categories and emerging as a futuristic, experience-sharing
retail outlet. Industry analysts say the distribution sector is the only way out
of the current protracted slump. Major department stores such as Lotte,
Shinsegae and Hyundai, and even small social commerce sellers such as
Coupang, are making investments in the sector exceeding a trillion won each.
Massive investments lead to employment. Together, Lotte and Shinsegae
hired 15,000 workers last year, overwhelming major exporters. Coupang
plans to invest 1.5 trillion won ($1.25 billion) through next year and employ
40,000 to beef up its delivery staff. Politicians and bureaucrats seem to think
somewhat differently, however, stressing the need for co-prosperity with
traditional outdoor markets and mom-and-pop stores, industry sources said. A
case in point is the bill proposed last year in the National Assembly, which
aims at restricting the opening of supersize stores by large retailers. This
regulatory mindset has resulted in a decrease in consumption of 2 trillion won
a year, damaging even the small vendors the bill was intended to help, they
added. "Upgrading the domestic retail industry cannot be done without
enlarging the sector," said Ahn Seung-ho, head of the Korea Distribution
Association. "To reignite domestic demand, the government and political
community need to relax regulations and draw a new industrial map."
However, a civic activist said the key for any sustainable growth will lie in
how to harmonize the interests of both the gigantic and small retailers by
shaping policies that minimize overlapping areas of service.
 AFF
Regulatory reform net better than Deregulation.
Deregulations kill enviro. Deregulation kills gender equity
in workplace.
White 14 [MARCH 28, 2014 Regulatory Reform- deregulation versus better regulation Simon White is
an independent policy advisor who works with national, regional and city governments, business
organisations and development agencies to formulate and implement strategies for enhanced economic
growth, business development and job creation. He has worked throughout Australia, Asia and
Africa .http://simonwhite.com.au/2014/03/28/regulatory-reform-deregulation-versus-better-regulation/]

It seems that governments around the world are paying greater attention to regulatory reform. While
reform is a continuous activity of all governments, more and more are becoming aware of how the
accumulation of regulation can quash business growth and constrain economic competitiveness. It is
interesting to see the ways these reforms are being introduced and the potential savings governments
there is great danger that can
claim will be made. However, among these crusades,
undermine the value of good regulation . The removal of environmental
regulation, which some are calling green tape, is being parcelled up in the
name of relief for small business. Is this going too far? In Korea this month, the
government announced it will cut the total number of regulations on business activities to 80 percent of
the current level by 2016 through its Deregulation Drive. The plan was unveiled during a seven-hour
marathon meeting led by President Park Geun-hye on national television and translates into the removal of
2,200 regulations and a drop in the total from more than 15,000 to just over 13,000. This is considered
important to spur greater levels of economic growth in Korea. On 28 March, Finance Minister Hyun Oh-seok
presided over the first ministerial-level meeting on the matter to inspect, evaluate, and come up with
follow-up measures to President Park Geun-hyes three-year economic innovation plan. They
pinpointed 52 regulations that could be improved . Hyun said 41 of the regulations can
be addressed immediately, with 27 of them to be amended in the first half of this year. This site contains
an interesting interview on Koreas reform efforts with Dr. Kim In-chul, professor of
International economics at Sung Kyung Kwan University. He talks about
creating the right incentives for reform and how the government as learned
from the previous governments attempts at regulatory reform. He also
describes the adoption of the one-in, one-out system or the regulation
cap and the use of sunset clauses. Last year I reported on some the the UK government
initiatives in this field, which included the Red Tape Challenge. The RTC is gaining
momentum. Some 3,000 pieces of regulation have been identified for action.
They will either be improved or scrapped. An Excel document containing this list can be downloaded from
here. David Camerons announcement can be found here. So we have trawled through thousands of pieces of regulation from the serious to
the ridiculous, and we will be scrapping or amending over 3,000 regulations saving business well over 850 million every single year. Thats
half a million pounds which will be saved for businesses every single day of the year. The infographic below promotes the savings of cutting
red tape. In Australia, the new Coalition Government has introduced Repeal Day. See the governments Cutting Red Tape site. Two Repeal Days
will be held each year. The first was on 19 March 2014 and the second will be during the Autumn session of Parliament. When introducing the
initiative into Parliament this month, Prime Minister Tony Abbott said the red tape repeal would remove 9,500 unnecessary or counter-
productive regulations and 1,000 redundant acts of Parliament. Removing just these will save individuals and organisations more than $700
million a year, every year, he said. The Liberal Partys own policy document on regulatory reform will save one billion Australian Dollars
annually. The use of parliamentary sitting days for the repeal of legislation and regulation has been used in other jurisdictions to repeal
redundant or unnecessary legislation. In the United States, the House of Representatives holds repeal days that are known as the Corrections
Calendar. The Corrections Calendar contains a list of bills that focus on changing laws, rules, and regulations that are judged to be out-dated or
unnecessary. These bills are considered by the House of Representatives and debate is limited to one hour. For a bill on the Corrections
Calendar to pass the House of Representatives a three-fifth majority vote of those present is required. In Australia, the first repeal day was
organised by the Western Australian Government on 8 November 2012, which was used to repeal five acts from the statute book. Later this
year, the Australian Senate will debate the Omnibus Repeal Day (Autumn 2014) Bill 2014, available here. This Bill, which was passed by the
Parliament this week (on 26 March 2014) is described as: a whole of government initiative to amend or repeal legislation across ten portfolios.
The Bill brings forward measures to reduce regulatory burden for business, individuals and the community sector that are not the subject of

Does
individual stand-alone bills. There are two questions that arise from this growing push for regulator reform. The first is:
business actually benefit from these reforms? The second: Are red-tape
reduction strategies being used to remove good and proper
regulation? Does regulatory reform help business? The red-tape reduction
initiatives described above are all justified by the savings they will produce for business and consumers.
There is no question that, in most countries, there are too many regulations, often old and outdated, but
also unnecessary and inefficient, that increase the cost of doing business and that these increases have a
broader influence on competitiveness. Campaigns that aim to identify and remove these are important and
necessary. However, it is easy to get caught up in a public relations exercise that imply all these
regulations have an equal influence. For example, a recent article by Peter Martin, the economics editor of
The Age newspaper in Melbourne, quotes Professor Fred Hilmer, former chair of the National Competition
Policy Review Committee, and author of the Hilmer Report the 1995 National Competition
Policy. Ill give you a silly example, he said referring to his own experience as vice-chancellor of the
University of NSW. Under the Audit Act, a university has to file accounts to the Parliament for every one of
its subsidiaries. That would be a book centimetres thick. We dont. No one does it. And theyll repeal it.
While removing useless, unenforced regulation is not a bad thing to
do, as Peter Martin says, removing laws that cause actual damage
is harder. John Wanna from the Australian National University similarly
describes deregulation exercises as smoke and mirrors : Parliament is unrelentingly
cranking out thousands of new amendments and regulations each session, yet governments will
periodically want to appear to be reducing the regulatory burden on the community and especially
business as a productivity measure. Reporting requirements, compliance frameworks and other
accountability impositions are increasing at a far faster rate than any rolling back of out-dated
There are some big deceptions behind regulations and the Abbott-
regulations
they claim the abolition of these regulations sitting
Frydenberg initiative. One is that
on the statute books will miraculously save millions of dollars and make us
more competitive. Yet most of the ones destined for abolition are truly
anachronistic laws and regulations (some decades and even centuries old)
that hardly apply to modern business . The take home of all this is that while red-tape
reduction is a good thing, the repeal of old and out-dated laws and regulations is a normal part of the work
of parliaments and governments. While thousands of laws and regulations will be
removed or improved, the challenge is to focus efforts on those that have the most impact on business
and the economy. In the Australian instance, many of the problematic laws and regulations faced by
business are created by local and state governments. These will not be affected by the Federal
Governments Repeal Day efforts. Cutting what we shouldnt the chaining colour of tape The second
question Ive raised concerns the danger of using regulatory reform campaigns to remove or alter
A case in point is regulation that protects the
regulation that serves a useful purpose.
environment. Whether by design or accident, red-tape reduction is now
including so-called green-tape. The Australian Governments reform programme consistently
uses the term red and green tape, as does the Coalition policy. Similarly, in the UKs Red Tape Reduction
campaign, the British Prime Minister announced that by this month next year the Department for
Environment, Food and Rural Affairs will have slashed 80,000 pages of environmental guidance saving
businesses around 100 million per year. While environmental regulation should not be
excluded from assessments that might improve its effect and efficiency, there
appears to be a danger that the scope of a general deregulation agenda is
widening. All regulation, whether good or bad, imposes a cost on business . All
costs are not bad. The purpose of deregulation should not be to remove as
much regulation as possible, but to balance the cost on business
with the benefits to the broader community and the environment .
Another regulatory issue that is possibly affected by the deregulation push in
Australia concerns gender audits. Beth Gaze, from the University of Melbourne, is concerned that
the requirement for employers to report on the gender makeup of their
workforce could easily fall victim to a deregulatory agenda . She describes how
the Workforce Gender Equality Act of 2012 requires employers to provide annual information on several
gender equality indicators, including the gender composition of the workforce and governing bodies such
as councils or boards of directors; pay equity between women and men in the workforce; and the
availability and use of flexible working arrangements for male and female parents and carers. Pay equity
data shows the current pay gap between men and women is 17.5% and has consistently been between
15% and 18% over the past two decades. This suggests that little or no progress has
occurred in moving towards workforce gender equality. Is reporting
by employers unjustifiable and wasteful red tape? asks Gaze. It applies only to
employers of more than one hundred people and not to small businesses. Do the benefits of
reporting justify the extra time and effort? Information on an employers
workforce and how it changes from year to year allows both assessment of
the employers progress on gender equity, and identification of effective
practices. This knowledge is not available from anywhere else and is essential to understanding both
progress and the barriers to progress in gender equity at work. Reports will give shareholders, employees,
job seekers and the public a concrete view of whether a companys expressed commitment to gender
equity at work has led to improvements in practice. While this legislation has been in the governments
indicates it will delay these changes and consult further.
deregulation sights, government currently
There are substantial benefits to be gained from a regulatory reform
effort that reduces the burden of unnecessary and onerous regulation
on business, while improving the quality and efficiency of the
regulation we require. The term red tape is typically used to describe excessive regulation or
rigid conformity to formal rules that is considered redundant or overly bureaucratic. This does not apply to
Most regulation exists for good reason and while it might
all regulation.
need updating from time to time, it should not be thrown out with
the proverbial bathwater. The greatest challenge in all this effort it to identify those barriers
that have the greatest impact on economic performance. This is where the full benefits of reform can be
realised.

Effective regulations boost econ growth and save GDP

proper regulations improves international business and
trade
Rumney 15 [28 Oct 15 Emma Rumney is a reporter at Public Finance International. She also writes
for Public Finance in the UK. Good regulations can boost growth
http://www.publicfinanceinternational.org/news/2015/10/good-regulations-can-boost-growth-says-oecd ]

More effective regulation can act as a lever for economic growth, according to
the OECD. The OECD Regulatory Policy Outlook 2015 found that even small
efforts to fix regulatory shortcomings can have a tangible positive impact on
economic activity and well-being, and encouraged governments to further
improve their law-making. Angel Gurra, OECD secretary general, said:
Governments tend to focus their energy on getting their tax and spending
policies right and often overlook a third lever that can support economic
growth regulation. The report argues that making regulations more
accountable and evidence-based pays dividends. It cited cases such as
Australia, where reduced regulatory costs increased gross domestic
product by 1.3%. Cutting red tape in the UK had saved businesses
10bn over four years, while simplified regulation delivered savings
of 1.25bn in Belgium, it said. OECD governments and industries
save 153m a year through regulatory cooperation that reduces
chemical testing and uses harmonised formats and work sharing, it added.
The report argues that international cooperation in law making is essential for
creating global rules and standards, addressing trade frictions and
environmental risks and reducing the risk of regulatory failures such as the
2008 financial crisis or the recent VW emissions test scandal. In tracking how
OECD countries develop, implement and review their laws and regulations it
found that only a third of the 34 nations have a clear policy for international
regulatory cooperation. One third have no policy at all on regulatory
compliance and enforcement, while two-thirds have no system for evaluating
laws once they are implemented. Such poor coordination on regulation
between countries hampers business and trade, the OECD said.
Governments trying to shake off anaemic growth must address shortcomings
in regulation and ensure laws work as well in practice as they do on paper.
Laws need to be not just well designed, but well implemented, properly
evaluated and consistently applied across sectors, jurisdictions and borders,
Gurra said.
Korea Regime Collapse
CP: Reverse NKSEA
 1NC Shell

Text: The United States federal government should

overturn the North Korea Sanctions Enforcement act

Biggest threat to NK collapse is recent US designation of

NK as primary money launderer- reversal would be
sufficient to stop collapse
John Power 6/3/16 John Power is a journalist who has been based in Seoul,
South Korea since 2010 http://thediplomat.com/2016/06/will-us-money-
laundering-designation-hurt-north-korea/ ob
The move by the United States to designate North Korea a primary money
launderer leaves it more isolated from global finance than ever, barring
financial institutions with U.S. accounts from doing business with the regime.
The Treasury Department announced Wednesday it would ban institutions
from carrying out dollar transactions for or on behalf of a North Korean
banking institution. While American banks had already been prohibited from
doing business with North Korean institutions, the new measures have the
potential to scare foreign banks off from any dealings with Pyongyang. Banks
in relatively regime-friendly countries such as China and Singapore would risk
being cut off from the dollar, and even face prosecution, if they provided
services to North Korean concerns. Enjoying this article? Click here to
subscribe for full access. Just $5 a month. In a press release on the Treasurys
website, Adam J. Szubin, acting under secretary for Terrorism and Financial
Intelligence, said, The regime is notoriously deceitful in its financial
transactions in order to continue its illicit weapons programs and other
destabilizing activities. While its unclear how much pain the banking rules
could inflict on Pyongyang, which heavily relies on cash thanks to existing
sanctions, some observers portrayed them as a game changer. This is,
without question, the single most powerful sanction the United States has
ever imposed on North Korea, Joshua Stanton, a drafter of the recently-
enacted North Korea Sanctions Enforcement Act, wrote on his blog One Free
Korea. Calling the developments the death knell for leader Kim Jong-uns
byungjin policy of developing the economy and nuclear weapons at the same
time, Stanton said the regime would face unprecedented financial pressure.
By cutting off his access to his sources of regime-sustaining hard currency, it
denies him a viable, long-term strategy for financial survival unless he
commits, irreversibly, to disarmament and reform, he wrote.
 2nc Extension Shell

CP reverses recent sanctions that are targeted at NK

financial institutions and leadership- these are the
sanctions causing NK regime to collapse thats Power in
6/3- reversal prevents that collapse without linking to the
net benefit.

Regime was successfully growing economy prior to recent

round of sanctions- NKSEA is key

George A. Lopez 7/8/16 (professor of peace studies in the University of Notre

Dame's Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies. Lopez served on the
United Nations panel of experts for monitoring and implementing U.N.
sanctions on North Korea from 2010-2011) Real North Korea Sanctions
http://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2016-07-08/new-us-sanctions-on-
north-korea-will-really-matter ob
No one should underestimate the significant step taken in U.S. action to
designate 10 of North Korea's most powerful domestic leaders and five
repressive government entities they manage as directly responsible for
systematic torture, extrajudicial killings and running forced labor camps and
political prisons for tens of thousands. In topping the designation list, North
Korean leader Kim Jong Un joins current tyrants Bashar Assad of Syria and
Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe, as well as former brutal dictators Charles Taylor
and Moammar Gadhafi, as blacklisted heads of state. The U.S. State
Department report announcing the measures was particularly clear about
Kim's direct responsibility for the criminal actions of his governmental
agencies and those who direct them. With these new, specific designations,
Treasury stifles the recent uptick in economic interaction between numerous
nations and global economic actors and North Korea, as the latter's charm
offensive has focused on stimulating new financial and trade ventures not
prohibited by nuclear and missile sanctions. These new sanctions prohibit
U.S. business exchange of any type with those named and freeze whatever
assets any of them still hold in the U.S. The measures are meant to cripple
any economic activity between non-U.S. entities that might want to engage
with the North's leadership in such a venture.
Thus, these new sanctions provide further strength to existing U.S. and U.N.
counter-proliferation sanctions against North Korea. Now a broad array of
military, technology, trade, banking and domestic police and security
agencies and the individuals who direct them are international pariahs.
With continued commitment to enforcement, over time these sanctions may
well deteriorate the powerful, central control and existing resource base of
these repressive agencies. And they widen the circle of North Korean elites
who are deprived of the financial benefits they garner by propping up the
repressive regime.
 2NC Solvency Cards
Act cuts off access to financial institutions and sanctions
banks that continue to do business with NK leadership

Stanton 2016 (advised the House Foreign Affairs Committee on the drafting of
the North Korea Sanctions Enforcement Act, blogger for onekorea.org)
http://www.weeklystandard.com/on-north-korea-ed-royce-leads-a-bipartisan-
coup-against-a-bipartisan-failure/article/2000670 ob

If the NKSEA becomes law, it will greatly strengthen our relatively weak
sanctions on North Korea and legislate a return to the only strategy that has
ever worked against it cutting off its access to the global financial system,
and stranding its billions of dollars in regime-sustaining slush funds in
Chinese and European banks. It would require the Treasury Department to
follow and block the money that funds the army, secret police, and elites that
keep Kim Jong-un in power; and pays for his luxury cars, ski resorts, dolphin
aquariums, waterparks, and copious diet, while the vast majority of his
subjects go hungry. Critically, it would also impose secondary sanctions on
third-country banks that launder the proceeds of its illicit activities, arms
deals, and forced labor, and help sustain its proliferation and human rights
abuses.
 CP Doesnt Link to Elections

Doesnt link to elections- NK not perceived as large threat

to US, voters more concerned with ISIS and anti-terrorism
efforts

Reich 2016 (Professor in The Division of Global Affairs and The Department of
Political Science, Rutgers University Newark)
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/the-conversation-us/should-america-be-
focusin_b_9674522.html Should America Be Focusing On ISIS When North
Korea Poses an Existential Threat? ob
It is understandable that Americans focus their attention on the Middle East.
The media supplies a daily stream of news about Americas continued war
with the Islamic State, or ISIS. And the recent attacks in Europe and San
Bernardino, have made terrorism a major issue in this years election,
whether initiated by Jihadists recruited from at home or abroad. Poll numbers
at the end of last year suggested that a majority of Americans think that
President Obama is not taking the threat from ISIS seriously enough. They
believe that an overwhelming use of force would end the threat. Indeed, a
more recent poll suggested that a plurality of those questioned believe the
U.S. is losing the war on terrorism. But is this where Americans should be
focusing their attention if they are looking for large-scale threats? As
someone who studies security issues, I believe that a recent cluster of events
- North Koreas missile and nucleartests, Chinas uncharacteristic reaction
and the comments of G7 officials - provides us with some clues. Existential
threats must be...well, existential The fact is that ISIS does not pose what has
fashionably been termed an existential threat to the United States. The
word existential is increasingly used by politicians and analysts with little
regard for its meaning beyond a large-scale threat. But Ted Bromund, a
foreign policy analyst at the conservative Heritage Foundation, offers this
more comprehensive definition: An existential threat is one that would
deprive the United States of its sovereignty under the Constitution, would
threaten the territorial integrity of the United States or the safety within U.S.
borders of large numbers of Americans, or would pose a manifest challenge
to U.S. core interests abroad in a way that would compel an undesired and
unwelcome change in our freely chosen ways of life at home. Clearly,
Jihadism as an ideology cant do that to Americans. And despite the recent
concerns expressed by President Obama, there is little chance that groups
like ISIS can detonate a nuclear weapon in the U.S. Even the admittedly
terrifying release of a dirty bomb wouldnt kill casualties on a massive scale.
As the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission succinctlyphrased it, A dirty
bomb is not a Weapon of Mass Destruction but a Weapon of Mass
Disruption where contamination and anxiety are the terrorists major
objectives. The very long struggle with North Korea The American public,
particularly Republican voters, may continue to focus attention on terrorism,
but they should be focusing their attention on developments in North Korea.
Arguably, the events unfolding there far more threatening. The U.S. has a
long and violent history of struggle with North Korea, dating back to the
bloody war that took place in the early 1950s and cost 36,574American lives.
The truce between the two Koreas was never concluded by a peace
agreement. In defense of South Korea, the U.S. has been in a perpetual state
of limbo ever since, caught between war and peace. Most Americans either
dont understand this or dont care very much, with only 16 percent of
Americans polled naming North Korea as Americas greatest enemy in a
recent survey. But the North Koreans certainly do. The Demilitarized Zone - a
148-mile-long strip of land that separates North and South Korea - is
protected by 37,000 troops to its south and is home to over a million
landmines. Indeed, the fact that the U.S. lays mines there is theprimary
reason often given for its failure to sign the 1998 Global Landmine Treaty.
North Korea is an impoverished country that has been propped up by China,
its only major ally, since the end of World War II. The Chinese dont want a
reunited, more powerful Korea on their doorstep, let alone one allied to the
United States. China is North Koreas biggest trading partner, and the Chinese
have repeatedly provided diplomatic support to stave off the imposition of
U.N. sanctions. Comprehensive figures on aid or trade with North Korea are
hard to find. But the U.N. routinely provides emergency assistance to stave
off the occasional famine. North Korea has been brutally ruled by 33-year-old
Kim Jong-un for five years. He succeeded his father, Kim Jong-il, who led the
country for 17 years. To Americans, North Korea seems like a caricature of an
evil dictatorship drawn in a Hollywood movie (as indeed it was,
controversially, in the 2014 movie The Interview). It is one they only
occasionally hear about, usually when an American foolhardy enough to visit
there is detained on charges that baffle most Americans. The North Koreans
then extort some prize in exchange for the prisoners release. This usually
involves the visit of a high-level dignitary to plea for clemency, as Jimmy
Carter did in 2010. Just this January, Otto Frederick Warmbier, a visiting
American student, was detained in January on the grounds that he had
committed a hostile act by allegedly removing a political banner from a
hotel and was sentenced to 15 years of hard labor in March. Is there a real
North Korean threat? To many Americans, then, North Korea seems an
appalling place. But they regard it as distant, backward and relatively
harmless.
 Aff Answers
Sanctions not key- circumvented by illegal online
gambling revenue that goes directly to regime

Steven Stradbrooke 7/7(Writer for Calvin Ayre, online gambling

enwsource)NORTH KOREAS ILLEGAL ONLINE GAMBLING EARNS REGIME
CLOSE TO A BILLION DOLLARS
http://calvinayre.com/2016/07/07/business/north-kore-illegal-online-gambling-
activity-worth-864m/
North Korea earns close to one billion dollars per year from illicit internet
activity, primarily via illegal online gambling businesses. Yoo Dong-ryol, head
of the Korea Institute of Liberal Democracy and a former senior researcher at
the Korean National Police University, made the claim at the South Korean
militarys annual security conference in Seoul on Thursday. Yoo said North
Korea operates tens of hubs in China and Southeast Asia aimed at
generating sorely needed foreign currency to prop up the isolated regime.
Collectively, Yoo estimated these hubs earn around KRW 1t (US $864m) by
developing and selling illegal gambling programs, operating gambling sites
using names of foreign nationals and stealing cyber money through hacking.
Korea JoongAng Daily quoted Yoo saying illegal gambling software programs
are sold for tens of millions of won, with further lucrative charges for
upgrades. Yoo said the North hires local residents in other Asian countries to
run the gambling sites, with the profits split six to four or half-and-half. The
conference also heard from an intelligence official who claimed the North
Korean gambling software was embedded with malicious code that was
used to hijack computers for mass cyber attacks. Yoo said the North had
recently added 800 hackers, bringing the regimes total hacking force to
6,800 individuals. Last October, South Koreas National Intelligence Service
estimated there were a total of 1,100 North Korean agents running online
gambling sites that directly targeted South Korean bettors. Other agents were
reportedly targeting online role-playing gamers by selling prized in-game
virtual items.

Regime circumvents sanctions with illegal online

activities- repeal isnt sufficient.

Korea Joongang Daily 7/8/16 (South Korean Daily online newspapers )

http://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/article/article.aspx?
aid=3021011&amp;cloc=joongangdaily%7Chome%7Cnewslist1
North Korea is operating a lucrative gambling business in cyberspace to earn
hundreds of millions of dollars, circumventing the international communitys
sanctions, a security expert on the reclusive communist state said Thursday.
The Norths Reconnaissance General Bureau and IT offices are earning about
1 trillion won ($864 million) annually through illicit activities in the
cyberspace, including gambling businesses, said Yoo Dong-ryol, head of the
Korea Institute of Liberal Democracy. Yoo made the analysis at an annual
security conference jointly hosted by the militarys Defense Security
Command and Defense Security Research Institute. The North is operating
tens of hubs in China and Southeast Asia, where crackdowns are relatively
weak, to earn foreign currency, Yoo said. It is earning about 1 trillion won a
year by developing and selling illegal gambling programs, operating gambling
sites using names of foreign nationals and stealing cyber money through
hacking. Yoo, a former senior researcher at the Korean National Police
Universitys Police Science Institute, said illegal gambling software programs
are sold for tens of million won each and upgrade fees are also high. The
North also operates illegal gambling sites by hiring locals and split the profits
six to four or half-and-half, he said. From each hub, the North is collecting
over 10 billion won on average. In 2014, a group of North Koreans were
arrested in Cambodia for operating an illegal gambling site. At the time, the
Cambodian police confiscated about 10 billion won ($8.6 million) from them.
In 2012 and 2013, South Koreans were arrested by the Seoul police on
charges of operating illegal gambling sites using North Korean programs.
Intelligence experts believe the countrys cyber operations units are all
participating in the gambling industry. North Korean programs sold in the
South were embedded with malicious code, an intelligence official said.
Computers on which the gambling programs were downloaded were used as
zombie computers for cyber attacks. The North is using the programs to earn
money and for cyber terrorism, so we must be alert. Yoo said the North
operates about 20 cyber operations units with 6,800 hackers. About 800
were recently added. They are not only engaged in hacking activities, but
also communicate with spies using social media and 160 pro-North Internet
sites and manipulate public opinion. He said the North will try to expand its
influence over the South through cyberspace. We must create a cyber
security law to establish the legal ground for online searches and seizures
and revise the military criminal law to reinforce cyber security.

Links to politics- broad coalitional support for NKSEA

Stanton 2016 (advised the House Foreign Affairs Committee on the drafting of
the North Korea Sanctions Enforcement Act, blogger for onekorea.org)
http://www.weeklystandard.com/on-north-korea-ed-royce-leads-a-bipartisan-
coup-against-a-bipartisan-failure/article/2000670 ob
Six days after North Koreas fourth nuclear test, and just hours before
President Obama would address the Congress for his final State of the Union
speech, the House of Representatives passed the North Korea Sanctions
Enforcement Act (NKSEA) by a vote of 418-2. (Full disclosure: I worked with
Foreign Affairs Committee staff to draft the legislation.) If the NKSEA becomes
law, it will greatly strengthen our relatively weak sanctions on North Korea
and legislate a return to the only strategy that has ever worked against it
cutting off its access to the global financial system, and stranding its billions
of dollars in regime-sustaining slush funds in Chinese and European banks. It
would require the Treasury Department to follow and block the money that
funds the army, secret police, and elites that keep Kim Jong-un in power; and
pays for his luxury cars, ski resorts, dolphin aquariums, waterparks, and
copious diet, while the vast majority of his subjects go hungry. Critically, it
would also impose secondary sanctions on third-country banks that launder
the proceeds of its illicit activities, arms deals, and forced labor, and help
sustain its proliferation and human rights abuses. Senate leaders are now
working to merge two versions of the House bill into a bipartisan compromise,
which Majority Leader Mitch McConnell expects the Senate to act on soon. In
the eleventh hour of his presidency, with his diplomatic efforts stalled, the
president has little reason to veto the bill. The overwhelmingly bipartisan
result was the fruit of more than two years of tough negotiation and patient
coalition-building by Ed Royce, the California Republican who chairs the
Foreign Affairs Committee. In the end, Nancy Pelosi directed House
Democrats to vote for the bill. (The two dissenting votes came from Justin
Amash and Thomas Massie, Republican "non-interventionists" in the Ron Paul
mold.) Because President Obama cannot lift legislative sanctions unilaterally,
the NKSEA would put strict conditions on any deal with Iran's main supplier of
missile technology, and with Syria's main supplier of nuclear and chemical
weapons technology, for years to come. And because Congress's rejection of
the president's "strategic patience" was so broad, it cannot be dismissed as
party-line posturing. For years, Royce had seethed at the gullible diplomacy
that traded billions of dollars in aid for Pyongyang's broken promises. So did
Korean-American voters in Royce's Orange County district, who worried about
Pyongyang's growing threat to their ancestral homeland, and its horrific
atrocities against their ethnic brethren. Unlike the State Department, Royce
could see the incoherence of simultaneously subsidizing and sanctioning the
same target at the same time. As the son of a soldier who witnessed the
liberation of Dachau, he objected to sidelining North Korea's crimes against
humanity, including its own ghastly concentration camps, from the State
Department's diplomatic agenda. He objected just as strenuously when
Republicans did it, calling the policy "a bipartisan failure." At a 2007 hearing,
Royce was among the most outspoken dissenters when the Bush
Administration lifted most U.S. sanctions against North Korea to get an
agreement strikingly similar to the one President Clinton had signed in 1994,
and which Bush had denounced and walked away from in his first term, amid
evidence that North Korea was cheating on the deal. Royce rightly saw an
opportunity to unite security hawks from both parties who were concerned
about North Korea's proliferation and support for terrorism, and conservatives
and liberals who were equally incensed about its crimes against humanity.
The Democratic members and staff who joined this effort were often
surprisingly tough in their negotiations with the State Department, and the
relative bipartisan comity in the Foreign Affairs Committee improved its
efficiency in producing tough legislation. And let no one say that Royce, a
strong opponent of the President's Iran agreement, did so by sacrificing the
toughness of his rhetoric, his principles, or his legislation. After years of
appeasement, billions of dollars in aid, broken agreed frameworks, nuclear
tests, and unmourned atrocities, Ed Royce led a rebellion by a united House
of Representatives I repeat, aunited House of Representatives against
ten years of soft-line North Korea policies, driven from the State Department's
East Asia Bureau, that had spanned two presidencies of both parties. There
was no special wizardry behind this, other than the competent practice of old-
fashioned political coalition-building. Tended carefully, that coalition could
last for years to come, and make the difference between an ephemeral and
symbolic victory, and a decisive and enduring one. That is how politics is
done right.
Korean War- Precision Strike
 1NC
The United States Federal Government should use
precision airstrikes neutralize North Korean ballistic
missile launch capabilities

Solves reunification, prevents North Korea induced

extinction, and doesnt escalate
Suri 13 (Jeremi Suri is a professor of history and public affairs at The
University of Texas at Austin. The New York Times Bomb North Korea, Before
Its Too Late published April 12th, 2013. Accessed July 13th 2016.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/13/opinion/bomb-north-korea-before-its-too-
late.html?_r=0) Fedora
SINCE February, the North Korean government has followed one threatening move with another. The spiral began with an
underground nuclear test. Then the North declared the armistice that ended the Korean War invalid. The young dictator
Kim Jong-un followed with a flurry of threats to attack civilian targets in South Korea, Japan and the United States. Earlier
this week, North Korea closed the Kaesong Industrial Complex, the only facility where citizens from North and South Korea
the North is openly threatening (and visibly preparing) to fire
work together. And now
a mobile-launcher-based Musudan missile with a range that could reach many of
the places Mr. Kim has menaced in his public statements. American
intelligence agencies believe that North Korea is working to prepare even
longer-range delivery systems to carry the nuclear warheads already in its
arsenal. The Korean crisis has now become a strategic threat to Americas
core national interests. The best option is to destroy the North Korean missile
on the ground before it is launched. The United States should use a precise
airstrike to render the missile and its mobile launcher inoperable. President
Obama should state clearly and forthrightly that this is an act of self-defense in
response to explicit threats from North Korea and clear evidence of a
prepared weapon. He should give the leaders of South Korea, Japan, China
and Taiwan advance notice before acting. And he should explain that this is a
limited defensive strike on a military target an operation that poses no
threat to civilians and that America does not intend to bring about regime
change. The purpose is to neutralize a clear and present danger. That is all. If
North Korea is left to continue its threatening behavior, it will jeopardize the
fragile economies of the region and it will encourage South Korea and Japan
to develop their own nuclear weapons a policy already advocated by
hawks in both countries. Most of all, North Korean threats will encourage
isolated states across the world to follow suit . The Iranians are certainly watching. If North Korea
can use its small nuclear arsenal to blackmail the region with impunity, why shouldnt the mullahs in Tehran try to do the
same?The United States and its allies in East Asia have a legitimate right to
self-defense and they have a deep interest in deterring future threats on this
scale. Thanks to precise satellite reconnaissance, striking the North Korean missile on the ground would be much
easier than after it was launched. Since the United States cannot possibly know the missiles trajectory before a launch,
and Mr. Kim has said he is targeting America and its allies, we have reason to believe that civilians face serious danger.
Since a missile on the ground is an obvious and largely undefended target,
we can be reasonably sure that a strike would destroy it and preserve
regional stability and the safety of our allies. An American pre-emptive strike
would also re-establish necessary red lines for North Korea and other
countries in similar circumstances. As President Xi Jinping of China stated earlier this month, No one
should be allowed to throw a region and even the whole world into chaos for selfish gains. By eliminating the most recent
The United
North Korean missile threat, the United States will reduce the threat posed by the Norths arsenal.
States would also reassure everyone in the region, and those watching from
other parts of the world, that although it is not seeking regime change,
America and its allies will not be blackmailed by threatened missile launches.
The North Korean government would certainly view the American strike as a provocation, but it is unlikely that
Mr. Kim would retaliate by attacking South Korea, as many fear. First, the
Chinese government would do everything it could to prevent such a reaction.
Even if they oppose an American strike, Chinas leaders understand that a
full-scale war would be far worse. Second, Mr. Kim would see in the American
strike a renewed commitment to the defense of South Korea. Any attack on
Seoul would be an act of suicide for him, and he knows that . A war on the Korean
Peninsula is unlikely after an American strike, but it is not inconceivable. The North Koreans might continue to escalate,
and Mr. Kim might feel obligated to start a war to save face. Under these unfortunate circumstances, the United States
and its allies would still be better off fighting a war with North Korea today, when the conflict could still be confined largely
to the Korean Peninsula. As North Koreas actions over the last two months have shown, Mr. Kims government is willing to
escalate its threats much more rapidly than his fathers regime did. An unending crisis would merely postpone war to a
later date, when the damage caused by North Korea would be even greater. Chinas role in a potential war on the Korean
Peninsula is hard to predict. Beijing will continue to worry about the United States extending its influence up to the
Chinese border. If armed hostilities erupt, President Obama should be prepared for direct and close consultations with
Chinese leaders to negotiate a postwar settlement, in a larger multinational framework, that respects Beijings legitimate
security interests in North Korea. The United States has no interest in occupying North Korea. The Chinese are unlikely to
Destroying the North Korean missile before it is
pursue an occupation of their own.
launched is the best of bad options on the Korean Peninsula. A prolonged crisis
would undermine regional security and global efforts to stop nuclear
proliferation. And a future war would be much worse . The most prudent
move is to eliminate the most imminent military threat in self-
defense, establish clear and reasonable limits on future belligerence, and
maintain allied unity for stability not forced regime change in the region.
This is the kind of pre-emptive action that would save lives and maybe even
preserve the uneasy peace on the Korean Peninsula.
 Doesnt aggravate China
China will not intervene if US attacks North Korea
Chinese Foreign Service Official, Interview with South Korean Correspondent

Shin Joo Hyun, 3/26/16

China will not intervene militarily even if North Korea

Seoul Newspaper reported that
diplomatically fails to solve the nuclear problem and the United States
attacks North Korea, quoting a Chinese foreign service official. In the interview with
Seoul Newspaper, the Chinese government official said, China will not deploy
troops to protect North Korea. This position is shared widely among the policy
makers in Beijing, and Pyongyang is probably aware of this fact. On the other
hand, as it is likely China will continue its efforts to protect North Korea, when asked what such efforts will
be, the official answered that food and energy assistance, pressure on America to soften hard-line policy,
and diplomatic assistance through the United Nations Security Council will continue. Seoul Newspaper
reported, Although China wishes for the reunification of the Korean peninsula through North-South
agreement in the long term, China will not oppose reunification where North Korea is absorbed into South
Korea. The report went a step further and revealed that, For China, the foremost interest it to maintain
Chinese government official call for much attention
border security. Such assertions made by the
since they signify that the 1961 DPRK-China Agreement on Friendly Cooperation
and Business Assistance and its article on automatic military intervention is
no longer considered binding. However, recently China has been displaying the traditional
brotherly relationship with North Korea, and because it has been consistently opposed to putting sanctions
on North Korea, it is unclear whether such perspectives are also pervasive among the high level officials in
the official expressed how Chinese military intervention
Beijing. Furthermore,
against the US is unlikely, yet China will continue its efforts to protect and maintain the current
North Korean regime. Such an assertion seems to say that China will evade direct
military confrontation with the US, which it presumes very unlikely. China has
been consistent with its official position that it supports North Korea, especially regarding matters of North
Korean defectors and the North Korean nuclear issue that can create a crisis for Kim Jong Il due to the
political relationships and confrontational attitude toward the US. China has consistently held its official
position that checks U.S. policy, and is able to support North Korea in the matters regarding defectors and
nuclear issues that have the potential to create a crisis for Kim Jong Il.
 AT situation probz fixes itself
Attacking now key: even if North Korea retaliates, they
dont yet have the ability to cause extinction
Thompson 16 (Mark Thompson is a National Security Correspondent for
TIME Magazine: Is It Time to Attack North Korea? published March 9 th 2016.
July 13th, 2016. http://time.com/4252372/north-korea-nuclear-missile-attack/)
Fedora
Taking out North Koreas two major nuclear sites with air strikes would be
dangerous but probably not too difficult, U.S. officials say. The possibility of North Korean
retaliation against Seoul, South Koreas capital of 10 million and only 35 miles from North Korea, would be
the more advanced North Koreas nuclear
a complicating factor, they concede. Yet
arsenal becomes, the tougher it will be to dismantle peacefully. Its slow but
steady progress on the nuclear front is something that the U.S. and the rest
of the world has been unable to stop . Our policy right along, Defense Secretary William
Perry told TIME in his flying stateroom over the Atlantic 22 years ago, has been oriented to try to keep
North Korea from getting a significant nuclear-weapon capability. That effort has failed. In fact, in 2006,
the U.S. should attack a
Perry and Ashton Carterthe current defense secretaryargued that
North Korean missile before it could be launched . The U.S. didnt attack, and the
missile test failed. Somewhere down the road, Americans might not be so
lucky.

North Korea rapidly developing its nuclear program now:

the tactical strike must happen ASAP
Kim 16 (Cynthia Kim is an Ex Public Affairs Intern for the U.S. Committee for
Human Rights in North Korea. Financial Review: North Korea vows to rapidly
advance its nuclear attack capabilities published May 1 st, 2016. Accessed
July 13th, 2016. http://www.afr.com/news/world/asia/north-korea-vows-to-
rapidly-advance-its-nuclear-attack-capabilities-20160501-goj9tn) Fedora
North Korea vowed to make rapid advancements on nuclear attack
capabilities if South Korea and the US continue with joint military drills, with the warning coming days
before predictions that the nation may conduct its fifth nuclear test for the Worker's Party Congress on May
6. "Our capability to make nuclear attacks will make fast advancement every time enemies conduct war
exercises," the regime's official news agency reported, citing an unidentified spokesman at its foreign
ministry. North Korea called a joint military drill between South Korea and the US "the worst military
provocation". The statement came after North Korea's failed attempts to fire missiles this week, and days
South
before Kim Jong Un's regime is scheduled to hold its first ruling party congress in decades.
Korean President Park Geun Hye said Pyongyang has completed preparations
to conduct its fifth nuclear test and vowed to seek stronger sanctions against
North Korea if it conducts the test. North Korea have offered to halt its
nuclear test if the US and South Korea would suspend defensive drills. US
President Barack Obama dismissed the proposal.
Answers
 2AC must read
The CP fails: exacerbates China tensions, undermines US-
Japan relations, and South Korea resists the plan, which
prevents re-unification
Kelly 15 (Robert E Kelly is an associate professor of international relations
in the Department of Political Science and Diplomacy at Pusan National
University. National Interest: The Ultimate Nightmare: Why Invading North
Korea Would be a Really Bad Idea published January 30 th, 2015. Accessed
July 14th, 2016. http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/the-ultimate-
nightmare-why-invading-the-north-korea-really-12157?page=2 WARNING:
MULTIPLE MAC USERS WITHOUT ADBLOCK HAVE REPORTED GETTING
A VIRUS FROM THIS CITE) Fedora
Invading North
Thankfully, the general response has been quite negative (here, here and here).
Korea is a terrible idea, and it is worth laying out why in some detail. I do not intend this as a
particular shot against Gobry I do not know him personally but rather against this general idea, as it
does come up now and then. In 1994, the Clinton Administration came close to launching a massive air
campaign against the North (well-discussed here). Then in the first term of President George W Bush,
regime change was the watchword and North Korea was on the axis of evil. If the Iraq invasion had
worked out, it appears other states were on the Bush hit list. Neoconservatives (neocons) love to loathe
North Korea. (Recommended: 5 Japanese Weapons of War China Should Fear) I should note, however, that
in my seven years working in Korea on Korean security issues, I have never heard a reputable Korean
analyst argue for preemptive attack in an op-ed, at a conference, on TV, and so on. Nor have any of my
hundreds of students over the years argued for this. This is a Western debate that has little resonance with
the people who would mostly carry the costs already a big problem for Gobry's argument. 1. Moral
Revulsion Is Not Enough: Gobry, and President Bush who placed North Korea on the axis of evil,
both share an admirably strong moral revulsion towards North Korea which motivates
their hawkishness. (Recommended: 5 Chinese Weapons of War Japan Should Fear) Certainly that
revulsion is warranted. There is little dispute that North Korea is the worst country on earth,
although perhaps the emerging ISIS 'state' is giving it a run for its money. The moral argument against
North Korea became clear as early as the 1950s, when Kim Il-sung solidified control of the North and
turned it into a cult of personality so servile and vicious scholars began using the neologism
Kimilsungism to describe it. But there are of course many nasty, awful dictatorships. Perhaps none as
awful as North Korea, but certainly huge numbers of people have suffered in many other states, both
powerful and weak. Mao's China comes to mind, as does Cambodia under Pol Pot, or Zimbabwe and Syria-
ISIS today. (Recommended: Russian Nuclear Weapon 101) For a brief moment under George W Bush, after
his second inaugural address, it looked as if promoting freedom around the world might actually become
US foreign policy, thereby justifying widespread global military pre-emption. But that was always wildly
impractical, and the American public rejected it immediately. And if there is anything we have learned from
regime change in places like Iraq and Libya it is that the unintended consequences and bloodletting can be
South Koreans really,
extreme. (Recommended: 5 U.S. Weapons of War China Should Fear) 2.
really don't want to invade North Korea: Much of the Western debate on
North Korea assumes that South Korea will simply go along with whatever
decisions emerge from Washington. I thought the same before I moved to Korea. Like many, I
figured that the ROK was a democratic ally standing shoulder to shoulder with the US for freedom,
democracy, and so on. But South Korean foreign policy is far more realist. I have been arguing for a long
time that South Koreans are not neocons and that they really don't want to up-end the status quo if it is
South Koreans fear the cost of
likely to be costly. Polls have shown for years that
unification, increasingly don't see North Koreans as a fellow people (for whom
they should make a huge sacrifice), and don't think North Korea is a huge threat. The
polls also show they dislike Japan almost as much as, if not more than, North Korea, they dislike
conscription, and worry a lot that the US might do something rash and provoke a
war. Neocons like Gobry may see this as a moral failing South Koreans slacking on the defense of
democracy and their historic responsibility to end the world's worst tyranny. I will admit myself that I think
Far
South Koreans need to step up more on this. But that is ultimately for South Koreans to decide.
more South Koreans would like to see the two Koreas slowly grow
together after North Korea has changed on its own (for example, by a
coup, by Chinese pressure, or by internal breakdown). There are lots of hawks in
South Korea (try here and here), but not even the most extreme argue for a
preemptive invasion. 3. North Korea has Nuclear Weapons: If the first two
reasons are a little soft, this one strikes me as a show-stopper. The US has never fought a
sustained conflict against a nuclear power. Indeed, the very reason North
Korea built nuclear weapons was to deter US offensive action . It is hardly a leap of
logic to think that the North would launch once US ground forces arrived on its territory. Gobry assumes,
far too blithely,
that the US could find all the missiles and hit them before
they launch. That is a helluva gamble, and certainly not one South
Korea or Japan, the likely targets, want to make. At the very least, we cannot go
over the heads of Seoul and Tokyo if we choose to seriously strike the North. 4. The (North) Korean
People's Army Would Probably Fight: This is a tricky debate, because we have no good
opinion data on KPA morale. We guess at readiness based on drills and the ferocious-looking marches
through Kim Il-sung Square and so on. But we don't know. The neocon position in such situations is to
again assume the best that rogue state armies are paper tigers and would collapse quickly. Certainly the
Iraqis did in 1991 and 2003. And I would agree that KPA would suffer revolts if pushed into an offensive
against the South. But a US invasion would justify all the propaganda Northern soldiers have heard for
decades. Overnight they would go from a conscript army used primarily as slave labor on construction
projects to defenders of the nation against a long-foretold invasion. Do we have any sense that the US
military would be greeted as liberators? That is yet another huge gamble, because if we are wrong, it is a
war against a state where almost every able-bodied male has extensive military training. Even in Iraq, the
insurgency showed how tenacious third-world nationalism is and how easy it is for such feelings to ignite
when faced with armed foreigners, however noble their intentions. 5. The People's Liberation Army Might
A US invasion would also set US-Chinese relations back by
Fight Too:
decades, and almost certainly push the US and China into a larger,
violent, heavily militarized cold war throughout Asia. Neocons who loathe
China's repressive oligarchy might not care, but post-Iraq, that frightening insouciance about the world's
second largest economy would almost certainly be a minority opinion in the West, and definitely would be
among America's Asian allies who would carry most of the costs of militarized Sino-US competition. Indeed,
if the US invasion spun out of control which is easy to envision given the
North's nuclear weapons and the size of the KPA China (and Japan) could easily get
chain-ganged in. China went to war in 1950 to keep the Americans off the Yalu River, and that was a
war the North started. If the US were to invade, America would suddenly look like
an aggressive, aggrandizing power. It would be easy to see the PLA fight once
again for essentially the same reasons. 6. Reconstruction would fall to the US: Here is yet
another Iraq lesson neocons seem blind to. When regimes like Libya or North Korea are decapitated,
Gobry's assumption is simply that South Korea
something new needs to be put in place.
would absorb ex-North Korea. And it probably would in more traditional
collapse scenarios. But if the US were to proactively invade North Korea, it
would be easy to see Southern and global opinion arguing that this is yet
another mess made by belligerent Washington that it should clean up . And
there is also the potential for a nasty insurgency by Kimist dead-enders, a
point Gobry does not even consider. Neocons really need to learn a few
lessons from Iraq and the war on terror about the use of American force .
 CP causes escalation
Invading North Korea would risk possible miscalc and
nuke war
Harry J. Kazianis, 1/16/15, Masters Degree (ALM) focusing on
international relations from Harvard University, The week, Why
invading North Korea would be insane,
(http://theweek.com/articles/532678/why-invading-north-korea-
insane)
The North Korean regime is the closet thing to Nazi Germany still in existence. Toppling it would free an
enslaved people. There is perhaps no government on Earth that more deserves to be cast into the dustbin
few military experts have pitched the idea of invading the Hermit
of history. Yet
Kingdom. That is because opening such a Pandora's box would unleash hell on
East Asia. Desperate for survival, Pyongyang would have every incentive to
use all its nuclear bombs and other weapons of mass destruction, threatening
the lives of millions of innocent people. So while I tip my hat to Pascal-Emmanuel Gobry for
making the case for invasion in The Week, in what amounted to an impassioned plea to rid our planet once
and for all of this evil cancer, a dispassionate review of the facts demonstrates why very few have
Here is why an invasion would be a great cause for regret:
endorsed such an idea.
Kim Jong Un will have learned the lessons of the Gulf War Suppose Washington did
decide to dispose of the evil thugs in Pyongyang. How would it proceed? It would start by heavily
bolstering the amount of military assets within striking distance of North Korea. This would involve bringing
in multiple aircraft carrier battle groups, increasing the number of troops in South Korea for a ground
invasion, moving in large amounts of land-based aircraft, and boosting missile defenses in South Korea,
Japan, and allied bases. In many respects, the U.S. would be dusting off an integral component of the 1991
The
Gulf War playbook build a large attack force that can overwhelm the enemy. Simple, right?
problem is that such a massive military mobilization can't be hidden . North
Korea would instantly realize what was up. Pyongyang would certainly have a
clear incentive to strike hard and fast knowing it constituted its best chance
for survival. Here we see the great folly of Saddam Hussein: allowing coalition
forces to build one of the world's most powerful fighting forces on his
doorstep. Kim would realize his best chance maybe his only chance
would be to strike with everything in his arsenal at the first sign of a build-up.
North Korea would use its nukes Why would a nation with less wealth than Ethiopia put billions
of dollars into acquiring nuclear weapons? The answer is simple: to ensure that anyone
considering imposing regime change won't take the risk. If Washington ever
decided it was time to take the regime down, what reason would Pyongyang
have from holding back? None. While there is debate whether Kim's
missiles have the range or accuracy to hit the continental U.S., it
does seem likely they could hit Seoul or Tokyo one hell of an
atomic parting gift. Kim knows all too well he would never be able to defeat
an allied invasion he may just decide to take as many souls down with him
as possible. And it has chemical and biological weapons Don't forget those. In a 2012
report on North Korea's military, the U.S. Department of Defense noted that "North Korea probably
has had a longstanding chemical weapons (CW) program with the capability
to produce nerve, blister, blood, and choking agents and likely possesses a
CW stockpile. North Korea probably could employ CW agents by modifying a variety of conventional
 the regime could
munitions, including artillery and ballistic missiles." Some reports estimate that
possess as much as 5,000 metric tons of chemical weapons. While opinions vary
regarding North Korea's biological weapons capabilities, the same report sees such a program as a strong
possibility, noting,
"North Korea continues to research bacterial and viral biological
agents that could support an offensive biological weapons program.
Infrastructure, combined with its weapons industry, gives North Korea a
potentially robust biological warfare capability." Imagining a nightmare
scenario involving even a small cache of chemical or biological weapons is
not hard. A handful of such weapons launched at Seoul could create a panic not seen since the Sept. 11
terrorist attacks. Even just one attack with such fearsome weapons on a civilian target must be avoided.
North Korea could retaliate in many unforeseen ways The above is just a small sample
Other challenges could
of the possible challenges allied forces would face in invading North Korea.
include North Korean sleeper cells launching Charlie Hebdo style attacks in
South Korea or even Japan, or armed forces lobbing missiles at areas
containing nuclear materials (essentially ballistic "dirty bombs"). And we have
not even touched on the estimated cost of rebuilding North Korea, or the fact
that China may have strong motives to intervene. Clearly North Korea is a stain on
human history that needs to be expunged. But the North Korean regime has had over six
decades to plot out its response to an invasion. It is something we should
keep in mind.
 North Korea uses nukes
North Korea will use nukes
John Everard 1/6/16, former British ambassador to North Korea, "It is
dangerous to assume that North Korea won't ever use a nuclear weapon,
The Telegraph,
(http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/12084881/It-is-
dangerous-to-assume-that-North-Korea-wont-ever-use-a-nuclear-
weapon.html)
It is dangerous to assume that North Korea won't ever use a nuclear weapon
Kim Jong-un has threatened a 'merciless sacred war of justice '. Could that involve a
hydrogen bomb? Documents drawn up by planners from Chinas Peoples Liberation Army that were leaked
Kim Jong-un may
to Japanese media include proposals for detaining key North Korean leaders
believe that the North Korean regime could survive a nuclear counter-strike
Was North Korea's test on January 6 really a hydrogen bomb? If it was, would it be able to deliver such a
Even if it has the technical capability does it have the intent or
bomb to a target?
would North Korea's leaders assess that a nuclear attack would invite
devastating nuclear retaliation and so the end of their regime (and perhaps of
North Korea as a state)? In order to establish whether the blast was in fact a hydrogen bomb, experts will
need to gather and analyse air samples, which will take them at least a few days. But a hydrogen bomb
would probably have produced a blast of greater than the 5.1 magnitude recorded, so quite possibly
the bomb was a fission device of the kind that North Korea has tested before .
In a sense it does not matter. A blast that size could flatten a city, whether it was
from a fission or a fusion device. North Korea could one day bring a submarine close to its
target which might include cities on the west coast of the USA and use a short-range missile North
Korea has been working hard on delivery systems for its nuclear weapons. It is
probably not yet able to mount a nuclear warhead on a missile, as this would require miniaturisation, which
is a difficult technology to master. It has shown that it can launch missiles into space but not yet that it
could bring a warhead down from space on to a target. To do this it would need to stop the missile spinning
But in May and again
out of control or burning up on re-entry again, both difficult technologies.
in December last year it attempted to launch a missile from a submarine.
These tests failed but when North Korea eventually masters this technology it could sidestep the problems
of intercontinental ballistic missiles because it could simply bring a submarine close to its target which
might include cities on the west coast of the USA and use a short-range missile. North Koreans celebrate
It is dangerous
as they watch a news broadcast on a video screen outside Pyongyang Railway Station
to assume that North Korea would never really use a nuclear weapon.
Although we may think that this would mean the end of the regime it is not
clear whether the regime thinks this. In the strange, closed world of North Korea it is quite
possible that the leadership has convinced itself that craven foreigners would not dare to counter-attack if
it used a nuclear device. Moreover, North Korea has an elaborate system of defensive tunnels like Tora
the regime believes that it could retreat
Bora in Afghanistan, but much more extensive. If
to these tunnels and survive a nuclear counter-strike then it will be less
reluctant to use its own nuclear weapons.
Mars Colonization- Get off
the rock
 1NC Shell
Text- The US should grant sole legal authority to initiate,
administer and supervise the marketing, merchandizing,
sponsorship, broadcasting and licensing of human
colonization of Mars to a viable private company for
funding of a permanent mars colony.

Rhawn Joseph 2010 (Ph.D. from the Chicago Medical School and completed
his training at Yale University Medical School (in the department of Neurology
and Neuropsychology) Marketing Mars: Financing the Human Mission to Mars
and the Colonization of the Red Planet Journal of Cosmology, 2010, Vol 12,
peer reviewed journal.

The conquest of Mars and the establishment of a colony on the surface of the
Red Planet could cost up to $150 billion dollars over 10 years. These funds
can be easily raised through a massive advertising campaign, and if the U.S.
Congress and the governments of other participating nations, grant to an
independent corporation (The Human Mission to Mars Corporation, a
hypothetical entity), sole legal authority to initiate, administer, and supervise
the marketing, merchandizing, sponsorship, broadcasting, and licensing
initiatives detailed in this article. It is estimated that $10 billion a year can be
raised by clever marketing and advertising thereby generating public
awareness and enthusiasm, and through the sale of Mars' merchandise
ranging from toys to clothing. With clever marketing and advertising and the
subsequent increase in public interest, between $30 billion to $90 billion can
be raised through corporate sponsorships, and an additional $1 billion a year
through individual sponsorships. The sale of "naming rights" to Mars landing
craft, the Mars Colony, etc., would yield an estimated $30 billion. Television
broadcasting rights would bring in an estimated $30 billion. This comes to a
total of up to $160 billion, and does not include the sale of Mars' real estate
and mineral rights and other commercial ventures.
 2NC Extension
Doesnt link to ________ because CP doesnt involve
engagement with China. Counter plan doesnt use US
federal budget- just grants a monopoly to a company
dedicated to Mars colonization

CP is the only way to guarantee US space leadership while

avoiding contentious US political fights for duration of the
mission.

Rhawn Joseph 2010 (Ph.D. from the Chicago Medical School and completed
his training at Yale University Medical School (in the department of Neurology
and Neuropsychology) Marketing Mars: Financing the Human Mission to Mars
and the Colonization of the Red Planet Journal of Cosmology, 2010, Vol 12,
peer reviewed journal.

Advertising increases public awareness and enthusiasm, not just to buy

products (Brigs and Stuart 2006), but to attend and watch movies and
sporting events (Gerbrandt 2010). To generate public demand for a mission to
Mars requires that the message be repeated in a variety of mediums, TV
commercial, print ad, radio ad, and online (Brigs and Stuart 2006). Over 30
major corporations spend over $1 billion each year in advertising all of which
significantly impacts public awareness and increases sales (Brigs and Stuart
2006). Hollywood movie studios effectively use advertising in a variety of
mediums (particularly TV and online) to successfully generate public interest
in very short time periods (Gerbrandt 2010). According to Brigs and Stuart
(2006), the numbers prove that the "surround-sound" approach is a big
winner. They also note it is best to display the product name and logo for the
duration of an ad. Likewise, the human mission to Mars must be advertised
and marketed as a product and as entertainment, and must use a product
name and logo to generate brand identity. Further, the marketing campaign
must be targeted and tailored to those who might be the most interested in
what a human mission to Mars might offer, i.e. adventure, drama, and life
and death competition with clear winners and losers. World wide, sports is a
$185 billion dollar a year industry which generates much of its income from
television and radio broadcasting, merchandizing, sponsorships, advertising,
online and mobile media, magazines and periodicals, and athlete
endorsements (Miller 2009). The Human Mission to Mars, can be marketed
and sold as the ultimate sports and reality TV extravaganza with the
conquest of an entire planet as the ultimate prize. Astronauts from around
the world, each with their compelling life stories, would compete against one
another to be selected for the Mars' teams; Mars' teams would compete
against one another to be the first to land on the Red Planet, and all
astronauts would be competing against the possibility of death. Astronauts
would be marketed for what they are: heroes and athletes in superb physical
and mental condition. Merchandise, from toys to clothing, featuring anything
and everything associated with the Human Mission to Mars, can be marketed
and sold, including official astronaut jerseys, with the names of favorite
astronauts emblazoned on front and back. Then there are product
endorsements by the most popular astronauts, with all income going to
support and pay for the Human Mission to Mars. It is important to recognize
sex differences in behavior and thinking; a field of study this author
pioneered many years ago (Joseph 1979, 1985, 2000, 2001a,b, 2002; Joseph
and Gallagher 1980; Joseph et al., 1978 ). From a marketing perspective it is
important to target traditional female interests: love, romance, and the
prospect of a Martian marriage and the first baby to be born on Mars. Mars'
fashions, Mars' styles, magazines and books featuring the lives and loves of
the astronauts with all income going to support and pay for the Human
Mission to Mars. 5. MARKETING REALITY What could be more "real" than a
Human Mission to Mars, where Astronaut heroes must overcome a grueling,
competitive ordeal, with the "survivors" winning the right to face death while
taking part in the ultimate adventure of all time? "Reality TV" is the number 1
money maker for broadcast and cable TV (Rose 2009). When the TV show
"Survivor" was first aired in 2000, it spawned a revolution in "reality" TV
broadcasting, with 51.69 million viewers watching the summer phenomenon's
final episode, more than any other program that season (Kissell 2000).
"Survivor" knockoffs have since been produced in every major TV market and
country throughout the world. Is the world interested in astronauts? The 1983
Hollywood film, "The Right Stuff" which featured the competitive life-
threatening ordeals of the first astronauts, was among the top 12 films,
variably ranked 6 to 12, among all feature films released, from October 21,
1983 through March 4, 1984 (BoxOfficeMojo.com). Then there is the reality of
the landing on Mars; the establishment of a Mars' colony; and the ultimate
adventure: exploration of the Red Planet. How many might "tune in" world-
wide to watch the first humans land on Mars, and what might advertisers,
sponsors, merchandisers, and television broadcasters pay for the privilege of
association or to broadcast all that transpires? Lessons learned from the
marketing of professional sports may provide the answers. 6. MARKETING
AND MERCHANDIZING: LESSONS FROM PROFESSIONAL SPORTS The following
international marketing model, is in part based on the marketing strategy
employed by the UEFA Champions League, which has become one of the
worlds premier sports competitions with television stations in all continents
bidding for television rights (Clegg, 2010; Thompson and Magnus 2003).
Specifically, the UEFA Champions League, consists of soccer (football) teams
from throughout Europe, and is broadcast to over 200 countries with a
worldwide cumulative audience tuning in over 4 billion times per season. The
Champions League final between Barcelona and Manchester United in May of
2009, drew an audience of 109 million, which is three million more than the
2010 Super Bowl between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Arizona Cardinals
(BBC 2010). The UEFA marketing model has demonstrated that the key to
successful income generation begins with successful marketing and a
centralized marketing approach directed by a single organization (in this
case, The Human Mission to Mars Corporation). The centralized organization
must have complete responsibility for negotiating all media rights and for
creating "brand" and "name" identity. However, financial success also require
the cooperation of three key partners: Television, Merchandizers, and
Sponsors (Thompson and Magnus 2003). 6A. Branding: If the Human Mission
to Mars begins as an international effort, with astronauts from countries
throughout the world vying and competing to become members of the Mars'
team, this would guarantee world wide interest and enhance all income
possibilities. Astronauts from various countries could be marketed as national
heroes and celebrities, who wear uniforms designating their home nations,
thus creating national Brand identities and promoting the purchasing of
Mission to Mars merchandise world wide. 6B. Rights To Astronauts: Exclusive
media rights to all astronauts and their families must be acquired by THMMC
such that they can only be interviewed, appear as guests on TV shows, or
provide product endorsements with paid THMMC approval. This would include
exclusive right to their images and pictures, life stories, family stories 6C.
Astronauts as Athletes and Heroes. Astronauts would be accurately marketed
as athletes and heroes and would be required to compete against each other,
in a variety of Olympic style events, reality TV events, and game-show
events, to win a place on one of the Mars teams. Mars teams would also
compete against one another to win the right to journey to Mars. These
competitions would be aired on TV, as sporting and reality TV events. As
astronauts from nations throughout the world would participate initially, this
would ensure world wide interest. 6D. Merchanizing and Logo: This would
include an official "Logo" featuring the concept of a Human Mission To Mars
and a musical anthem to generate excitement, passion and feelings of
prestige. The official "Logo" would appear on all products and merchandise so
that buyers would know that the merchant was an active supporter, and that
part of the proceeds were going to support the Mission to Mars. According to
the Sports Licensing Report (2010), licensing and merchandizing income from
Major League Baseball (MLB), the National Football League (NHL), and
National Basketball League (NBA), exceeds $10 billion a year. Apparel are the
most popular merchandise, particularly team jerseys with the names of the
most popular stars (e.g. Brett Favre, Vikings; Drew Brees, Saints; Peyton
Manning, Colts) emblazoned on the front and back. Merchandizing The
Human Mission to Mars (THMM) requires that astronauts be rightly
characterized as heroic and glamorized as stars and celebrities.
Merchandizing would also include THMM-related toys, equipment, vehicles,
action figures, posters, magazines, books, comics, video games, puzzles,
DVDs, and movie-TV-Book adaptations. Consider for example, "Star Wars"
movie merchandise which encompasses everything from lunch pails to bed
sheets. Annual income from Star Wars merchandise and video-games is
approximately $ 1.5 billion a year (Greenberg, 2007). In total Star Wars
merchandise has grossed over $14 billion in retail sales (Greenberg, 2007;
Sydell 2007). If THMMM were paid 25% of the gross sales of merchandise this
could come to at least $2.5 billion a year and $10 billion in five years. If
THMMM manufactured and distributed as well as sold this merchandise (thus
cutting out the "middle men"), the profits could be more than $10 billion a
year. 6E. Corporate Sponsors: Each sponsor would receive exclusivity in its
product area on TV, with commercial airtime spots and program sponsorship.
Laws would also be passed to make it impossible for non-sponsors to
associate with the Mars Mission. Further the number of sponsors would be
limited domestically and internationally thereby increasing the advertising
and prestige value of sponsorship. Sponsor packages would include
identification on TV interview backdrops and in the VIP and press areas. This
would generate a multiplying media effect offering high levels of
recognition to the sponsors for which they would pay dearly. Bidding for
sponsorships for the Human Mission to Mars, would begin at $1 billion and
could easily range as high as $10 billion per sponsor. General Motors, for
example, paid $1 billion to sponsor the U.S. American Olympic team for the
2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing (MSNBC 2010). However, the price of
sponsorship varies depending on if one is sponsoring an entire national team,
or the Olympics in general. For example, the top 12 official sponsors for the
2008 games paid over $866 million. Sponsorships for the 2012 games in
London is expected to gross nearly $3 billion of which over $1 billion will
come from companies headquartered in England (Rossingh 2010). Therefore,
world wide, and given that the Human Mission to Mars would generate world
wide attention for years, it can be estimated that THMMC could easily raise
$10 billion if limited to 10 sponsors paying $1 billion each. Sponsorships can
also be licensed to limited time periods, such as sponsoring the initial Part 1
of the Human Mission to Mars (from inception to entering Mars' orbit), or Part
2 (the landing on the surface of Mars) or Part 3 (exploring the Red Planet).
Again, even if limited to 10 sponsors for each Part of the mission, this would
come to $30 billion at a minimum. Increase the sponsors to 30 for each Part,
and we have $90 billion. 6F. Individual Sponsors: Children, teenagers, and
adults, from throughout the world, will want to feel they are part of this effort
and they should be made to feel they are not just part, but have contributed.
These individuals would influence and recruit their peers, might organize fund
raising efforts and clubs, consume Mars merchandize, and watch Human
Mission to Mars programming. Therefore, individual sponsorship will also be
offered scaled in terms of age-range and income. For example, children (or
their parents) who contribute $10 to $100.00 will receive official certificates
naming them "Mars Cadets". Wealthy adults who contribute $100,000.00 (or
who raise $100,000 in contributions) would receive an official Plaque naming
them a "Mars Pioneer" and would be invited to events featuring and allowing
them to meet the astronauts. Those contributing or raising $1 million would
be designated "Mars Ranger" and would be given opportunities to attend
special events and meet with individual astronauts. If 1,000 wealthy adults
from around the world contribute (or raise) at least $1 million that comes to
$1 billion. It is estimated that at least $1 billion could be raised from
individual sponsors. 6G. Protecting Exclusive Sponsoring and Brand Name
Rights: Using the Olympics as a illustrative example, the overall Olympics
brand consists of many different elements such as official names, phrases,
designs, trademarks, and so on; and the same would be true of the Human
Mission to Mars. As is the case with the Olympics (and the NFL, MLB, NBA,
etc), these brands would require legal protection to combat "ambush
marketing" (Soldner 2010). For example, the Olympic Symbol Protection Act
of 1995 provides the legal framework to protect the exclusive rights of official
sponsors and to control advertising methods of competitors who seek indirect
means of associating their products with the Olympic Games (Soldner 2010).
Therefore, the U.S. Congress, and all other nations who wish to participate in
the Human Mission to Mars, would need to pass similar laws. Thus, all
merchants and corporations who wish to be associated with the Mars mission
must pay for the privilege. These laws would ensure that sponsors pay top
dollar for the privilege and that adequate funds will be available to make the
Mars endeavor a success. 6H. Naming Rights: Corporations and other entities
or persons, would be offered the right to bid for "naming rights" for terms
lasting for Part 1, or Part 2, or Part 3 of the Human Mission to Mars. These
would include "naming rights" for A) each "Mars Team" of astronauts, B) the
Mars Crafts ferrying the astronauts to Mars, C) the Mars landers, D) the Mars
base camp, E) Mars Colony, F) Mars Vehicles, G) and so on. It is estimated
that corporations would pay up to 10 billion dollars for "naming rights".
Consider, for example, the cost of "naming rights" for basketball, baseball
and football stadiums. Staples paid $100 million dollars to rename the L.A.
Arena, home to the Los Angeles Lakers basketball team, the "Staples Center."
Minute Maid paid $170 million to name a ballpark in Houston, the "Minute
Maid Park". Reliant Energy paid over $300 million to rename a football
stadium, in Houston. Numerous corporation have done the same for massive
exposure in a very limited geographical area. These include Citigroup, Bank
of America, Wachovia, Citizens Bank, and so on, with Citigroup paying $400
million to name the New York Met's football stadium "Citi field." "Named"
stadiums can be found in Australia, Japan, China, Finland, Canada, Israel, the
United Kingdom etc. (Badenhausen 2006). Since corporations are willing to
pay up to $400 million to have their name on a single stadium located in a
single city and with limited national and world wide exposure, and on a
structure which will quickly become forgotten and insignificant in the annals
of history, it can be predicted they would be willing to pay billions for "naming
rights" to Mars landing craft or the Mars base camp or colony as their names
will go down in history and become famous world wide. Therefore, naming
rights will be auctioned to corporations who will bid against one another to
have the Mars Landing Crafts , Colonies, Base Camps and vehicles named
after their companies (e.g. the Google Mars Express, the Microsoft Mars
Lander) with bidding starting at $10 billion dollars. It is estimated that at
least $30 billion can be raised through the sale of "naming rights." 6I.
Television and Broadcasting: All aspects of training, competition, selection,
the journey to and landing and exploration of Mars, would be filmed 24/7, and
then sold or licensed to broadcasters, documentary film-makers, and online
and print media outlets. THMMC could also work with producers to cut (or
direct) this footage to create 30 minute programs in the style of TV shows
such as "Survivor", "Dancing with the Stars", "American Idol", as well as
game and other reality-type shows. A single U.S. American realty TV show,
American Idol, brings in on average $625000 for a single 30 second ad,
earning over 7 million every 30 minutes (Forbes Reports, April 2009). The
Human Mission to Mars and the actual landing and exploration of the planet
will be the greatest reality show in the history of humanity and it too could be
packaged as a 30 minute program aired several times a week with a
superbowl like extravaganza planned for the actual landing on the red planet.
Exclusive broadcast rights could also be sold to national broadcasters who
would assume responsibility for distribution and advertising. Or conversely,
The Human Mission to Mars Corporation (THMMC) could establish The THMMC
Channel which would license and distribute live and canned footage to every
television broadcaster that provides national territorial coverage. Since the
astronauts would initially represent different nations world wide, this would
insure world wide interest and a willingness of national broadcasters to give
air time to the Mission to Mars. The UEFA Champions League has the
exclusive right to sell all TV rights on an exclusive basis to a single
broadcaster per territory for a period lasting several years (Thompson and
Magnus 2003). Estimates are that total broadcast income, world wide, is over
$2 billion a year (2008/09 UEFA Financial Report). However, these funds to
not include income from sponsorships, videos, DVDs, advertising,
merchandise, or product endorsements. Further, only a fraction of the billions
in annual income are derived from the U.S.A. In the U.S.A. there is relatively
little interest in UEFA Champions League as compared to baseball, basketball,
and football. The United States of America is the richest nation on Earth,
America will be leading the way to Mars, and America is therefore the number
one market for the Human Mission to Mars. Thus, to fully grasp the income
potential the U.S. market must be considered separately. 7. USA BROADCAST
RIGHTS: LESSONS FROM BASEBALL, BASKETBALL, FOOTBALL Sports is about
conquest: invading and conquering territory and overcoming a determined
foe. The Human Mission to Mars would be the greatest adventure in the
history of humanity. Mars' astronauts would be competing against death for
the greatest prize of all time: The conquest of an entire planet. U.S.A.-based
broadcasters would therefore compete and bid against one another to
broadcast this great sporting adventure. It is estimated that American
broadcasters might pay up to $30 billion dollars for exclusive rights to
broadcast this footage. Consider the following: 7A. Baseball: A single sports
franchise, the Chicago Cubs earns approximately $42 million a year just for
local broadcasting rights sold to Comcast SportsNet Chicago and WGN TV and
which comes to $420 Million over 10 years (Peters 2010). In 2003, Fox Sports
paid baseball owner Tom Hicks, $550 million in a fifteen year deal, for rights
to broadcast the Dallas Stars and Texas Ranger baseball games (Andrews
Dallas Star, 2003). Collectively, over 15 professional baseball teams in the
U.S. earn $256 Million a year for local broadcast rights, with the New York
Yankees Yes TV network grossing over $340 million in 2006 (Jacobson 2008).
In addition Major League Baseball Advanced Media earns over $400 million a
year by streaming videos of live baseball games (Jacobson 2008). In 2007,
DirectTV paid $700 million to Major League Baseball, for a seven year deal
which allows subscribers to see up to 80 out-of-market baseball games a
year. Collectively Major League Baseball grosses over $1 billion a year in
broadcast fees. 7B. Basketball: The National Basketball Association (NBA)
earns $930 million a year from broadcasting rights, i.e. approximately 10
billion over 10 years (Cohen 2007; Gradizadio Business Report 2010; Schnietz
et al., 2005). In 2010, CBS and Time Warner Cable Network paid the National
College Athletic Association $10.8 billion dollars for a 14 year deal giving
them the TV, Internet, and wireless rights to air the annual men's basketball
tournament held each spring and featuring 68 college basketball teams
(Szalai 2010). 7C. Football: Between 2004 and 2006, the National Football
League (NFL) received over 20 billion dollars from CBS, NBC, FOX, and ESPN
to broadcast games locally and nationally, in deals spanning from 4 to 7
years (Sports Business Daily 2007). 8. BROADCAST RIGHTS TO PART 1, 2,
AND 3 OF THE HUMAN MISSION TO MARS Sports as entertainment grosses
over $185 billion dollar a year. Major sports, such as American baseball,
basketball and football, gross over $10 billion a year in broadcasting,
licensing, merchandizing, and media rights. A Human Mission to Mars
followed by the exploration and colonization of the red planet, would be a
multi-year endeavor, and broadcasting and related sponsorship rights could
be sold separately for each phase of the endeavor. Part 1: Competition
between astronauts, Picking the crews, the launch and the journey to Mars.
Part 2: Arriving in orbit and then landing on Mars. Part 3: Exploration and
colonization. What might be the potential income of a multi-hour program
featuring Part 2, the landing and first human on Mars? The American
Superbowl may provide an answer. According to TNS Media Intelligence 30-
second commercials during the 2010 Super Bowl sold for around $2.8 million
each, totaling around $62 million every 60 minutes (with 11 commercials
every 30 minutes on average). However, whereas 100 million watch the
Superbowl, 2 billion might watch humans land on Mars and then emerge from
the space craft to wonder the Martian surface over the following days. Part 2,
the landing and first wonderings on the surface of the Red Planet, could
average out to $10 billion dollars in advertising revenue over 24 hours. Then
there are the sales of DVDs of this footage which could be packaged and sold
within a few hours delay in real time. Therefore, using American and world
wide sports as a guide, including viewership for world wide premier sporting
events such as World Cup, Championship League, and the Super Bowl,
coupled with the examples from American reality TV, it could be estimated
that broadcasters would pay a minimum of $10 billion for exclusive rights to
Part 1, 2 and 3 for a total of $ 30 billion dollars minimum. 9. MINERAL RIGHTS
AND MARTIAN REAL ESTATE Article II of the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, which
was ratified by the United States and 61 other countries explicitly states that
"Outer Space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, is not subject to
national appropriation by claim of sovereignty, by means of use or
occupation, or by any other means." This treaty, however, says nothing about
personal or corporate claims of private ownership or individual or corporate
rights to extract and mine minerals and ores. Nor is the planet Mars explicitly
mentioned in the 1967 Treaty. Although the Space Treaty does not bar private
ownership of "celestial bodies", this does not mean that someone can simply
say: "I own Mars". Legal precedent requires possession. Consider, for
example, maritime salvage law (also known as Admiralty and Maritime Law,
and the Law of Salvage), which explicitly states that to claim ownership, the
party making the claim must first make contact with and secure the property
which must be beyond or outside a nation's national territory (Norris, 1991;
Shoenbaum, 1994). In terms of "salvage" the original owner is entitled to a
percentage of whatever is recovered. In the case of Mars, there are no
original owners (and if there were, they are long dead and gone). Therefore,
although some may argue that the 1967 treaty bars national ownership of
Mars, the treaty does not apply to private ownership. This means that those
who first arrive on Mars, may claim Mars (or all areas of Mars explored by
humans) as private property. They may also sell portions of this property to
other private parties or corporations. What might humans of Earth pay to own
an inch or acre of Mars? Traditionally, mineral resources within national
territory, belong to the government ruling that territory. Corporations and
individuals must license the right to extract and sell those resources.
Therefore, if those who first take possession of Mars form a government, they
may claim ownership of all mineral and other resources (e.g. minerals,
metals, gemstones, ores, salt, water). However, in the early history of the
United States, private owners owned both "surface rights" and "mineral
rights" and they had the right to sell, lease, or give away these rights.
According to the Mars Mineral Spectoscropy Database of Mount Holyoke
College, a wide variety of over 50 minerals may exist on Mars. Gold, silver,
platinum, and other precious metals are likely to exist in abundance above
and below the Martian surface; spewed out by volcanoes, and produced by
ancient hydrothermal activity and circulating goundwater which acted as a
concentrater. Therefore, once humans land on Mars, Martian mineral rights
can be sold to the highest bidders, and Martian real estate can be sold by the
inch or acre, with all these funds going to support the Human Mission to Mars
and the colonization of the Red Planet. A succession of Presidents and NASA
administrators have voiced interest in a human mission to Mars. However,
they have also proposed vague, fanciful dates so many decades into the
future. Even if a serious 20-year or 30-year plan were to emerge, it would
have to survive for decades through multiple NASA and U.S. government
administrations to ultimately succeed. Success is not just unlikely, but will be
too late, as the ESA, China, Russia, Japan, and other nations are already
planning on making it to Mars in the next two decades. The United States of
America, the American people, and American business will be the big losers.
The Human Mission to Mars must commence now, and it must be an
international effort. The conquest of Mars and the establishment of a colony
on the surface of the Red Planet could cost 150 billion dollars over 10 years.
These funds can be easily raised if the U.S. Congress and other participating
nations, grants and enacts legislation to give sole marketing, licensing, and
fund-raising authority to an independent corporation (such as the
hypothetical Human Mission to Mars Corporation) which initiates and
supervises the marketing, merchandizing, sponsorship, broadcasting, and
licensing initiatives detailed in this article. The United States Congress and all
participating nations must also enact legislation and pass laws to protect
these fund-raising efforts and those who sponsor, donate to, and partner with
THMMC to make a Human Mission to Mars a reality. The sole mission of The
Human Mission to Mars Corporation should be to raise $150 billion to fund a
Human Mission to Mars and the colonization of the Red Planet, and this can
be accomplished by initiating and following the detailed plans discussed in
this article. It is estimated that $10 billion a year can be raised through clever
advertising and marketing and the sale of merchandise. Following a massive
advertising campaign which increases public interest, between $30 billion to
$90 billion can be raised through corporate sponsorships, and an additional
$1 billion a year through individual sponsorships. The sale of naming rights
would yield an estimated $30 billion. Television broadcasting rights would
bring in an estimated $30 billion. This comes to a total of between $100
billion to $160 billion, and does not include other commercial ventures and
the sale of real estate and mineral rights.

This also takes out the solvency off the aff advantage
because it indicts the likelihood of a two governments
engaging in the long term funding necessary to
successfully colonize mars and ability to maintain public
support. Absent a mechanism for funding at some point
the support for funding will waiver and the mission will
become unsuccessful.
 Aff Answers
China cooperation necessary- tech and decreased Russian
support

Shannon Tiezzi June 05, 2014 (A.M. from Harvard University and her B.A. from
The College of William and Mary. Shannon has also studied at Tsinghua
University in Beijing. ) http://thediplomat.com/2014/06/report-to-reach-mars-
nasa-must-work-with-china/

Report: To Reach Mars, NASA Must Work With China A National Research
Council report recommends lifting the ban on NASA-Chinese cooperation. The
U.S. space program should seek to expand its cooperation with China, a new
report has found. The report by the National Research Council, titled
Pathways to Exploration Rationales and Approaches for a U.S. Program of
Human Space Exploration, laid out recommendations for the future of U.S.
space agency NASA. Congress ordered the report in 2010; the results of the
four-year investigation were released Wednesday. NASA is banned from
cooperating with China on projects under a 2011 appropriations law that
states: None of the funds made available by this Act may be used for the
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) or the Office of
Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) to develop, design, plan, promulgate,
implement, or execute a bilateral policy, program, order, or contract of any
kind to participate, collaborate, or coordinate bilaterally in any way with
China or any Chinese-owned company unless such activities are specifically
authorized by a law enacted after the date of enactment of this Act. Enjoying
this article? Click here to subscribe for full access. Just $5 a month. The ban
reflects congressional unease about high-tech cooperation with China in any
field. There are also restrictions limiting the extent of mil-to-mil cooperation
with China as well as a ban on certain high-tech exports. Frank Wolf, the
Representative behind the anti-China clause, explained his reasoning. We
dont want to give them the opportunity to take advantage of our technology,
and we have nothing to gain from dealing with them, he said back in 2011.
He also cited moral concerns over working with the Chinese government:
Would you have a bilateral program with Stalin? Scientists, however, have
been far less supportive of the ban. Last October, when it came to light that
Chinese scientists had been banned from attending a NASA conference, the
news sparked outrage and boycotts among American scientists. Geoff Marcy,
a U.S. scientist considered to have been on the short-list for the 2013 Nobel
Prize in physics, called the ban completely shameful and unethical. NASA
eventually backtracked and re-invited the Chinese scientists, in part after
Rep. Wolf said that NASA was not prohibited by law from interacting with
individual Chinese citizens. Though Wolf argued the law had been
misinterpreted, he stood firm behind the blanket ban on cooperation between
NASA and Chinese government entities. However, the backlash over the
conference drew new attention to the ban, with many speaking out against it.
Since then, there have been signs NASA is seeking a change. And such a
change may be possible: with Rep. Wolf announcing he will not seek
reelection this year, the ban on NASA-China cooperation will lose its strongest
supporter. In January, officials from Chinas National Space Administration
were included in an international meeting hosted by the U.S. State
Department. Because funding was provided by State, not NASA, it did not
violate the 2011 law. The meeting was a rare opportunity for U.S. and
Chinese officials to talk about potential space cooperation. Still, NASA
Administrator Charles Bolden cautioned against too much optimism: Human
spaceflight is not something thats going to happen with [the] U.S. [and]
China in the foreseeable future, because we are forbidden from doing that by
law, he reminded reporters. Now, the NRCs report officially calls for a
reexamination of the 2011 ban. This policy, while driven by congressional
sentiment, denies the U.S. partnership with a nation that will probably be
capable of making truly significant contributions to international collaborative
missions, the report said. Given the rapid development of Chinas
capabilities in space, it is in the best interests of the United States to be open
to its inclusion in future international partnerships, it continued. The report
also recommended that NASA turn its focus to sending a manned mission to
Mars, calling the red planet the horizon goal for human space exploration.
Yet the NRC cautioned that this goal could not be reached without more
extensive international cooperation. Were really talking about international
collaboration of a different scale than what has been conducted in the past,
Jonathan Lunine, co-chair of the NRC panel, told reporters. Even while the
NRC highlighted the need for international efforts, Russia is drastically scaling
back its space cooperation with the U.S. in response to Western sanctions
stemming from the Ukraine crisis. Russia has announced that it will withdraw
from the International Space Station in 2020, and will cease selling the RD-
180 engine that currently powers the U.S. Atlas 5 rocket. With Russia
withdrawing (at least temporarily) from space cooperation with the U.S.,
cooperation with China becomes all the more vital. Current federal law
preventing NASA from participating in bilateral activities with the Chinese
reduces substantially the potential international capability that might be
pooled to reach Mars, the report found.

150 billion dollar cost estimate it wrong- closer to 500

billion meaning CP cant solve- their cards are hyper
specific about the fundraising potential of a corporation
set on colonizing mars
ISU Space Studies Program 2011 (A team of 41 researchers, 7 of which are
doctorates in their field who met to produce a report on the viability of
colonizing mars) COOPERATION OF HUMANS AND ROBOTS FOR MARS
http://swfound.org/media/169327/charm_cooperation_humans_robots_mars.p
df
The long-stay scenario requires advancements in countermeasures to
mitigate the effects of reduced gravity and radiation on the human body
during the transit, in orbit and on the surface. This area is considered one of
the greater challenges of a long-duration mission such as this. Regarding the
political and societal aspects, the mission requires a very high level of
international cooperation and political awareness largely because of the costs
and the technological advancements needed. However, the potential prestige
and impact on society for such a scenario would likely be greater than any of
the other scenarios proposed. The research and development of necessary
technologies up to the mission's launch will require substantial and long-term
investments. The last raw estimate of potential cost foresees a total of
around USD 500 billion, or perhaps more, to put humans on Mars and return
them safely to the Earth (Taylor, 2010). The financial impact on the nations
involved will be very strong but the benefits will be also great in terms of
national technological advancement prior to the mission, national prestige
during the mission and spin-off technologies after the mission. The spin-off
potential is probably greater than for the short-duration mission due to the
necessity to develop ISRU capabilities.
Miscalc (Space)- Fund
Satellite Videos
 1NC
CP text: The USFG should fund optical satellite imagery-
delivery companies including UrtheCast to implement
video cameras on the all sides of its satellites to monitor
approaching objects

Chances for space miscalc increasing in squo, more video

cameras must be funded past proves feasible
Selding 15 (UrtheCast Shelves New ISS Camera To Focus on Satellite Constellation
Peter B. de Selding is the Paris bureau chief for SpaceNews. He is responsible for coverage of
all European military, civil and commercial space programs for SpaceNews and
SpaceNews.com and also covers international regulatory organizations such as the
International Telecommunications Union. He earned a bachelors degree in political science at
Washington College in Chestertown, Maryland, and a masters degree in Journalism from
Missouri-Columbia School of Journalism, and studied German at the German Language Institute
in Berlin. November 12, 2015, http://spacenews.com/urthecast-shelves-new-iss-camera-to-
focus-on-satellite-constellation/ - LK)

UrtheCast said Nov. 10 it is refocusing its investment away from

International Space Station-mounted cameras toward a planned
constellation of Earth-imaging satellites. In an earnings call with investors, the Vancouver,
British Columbia-based Earth-observation imagery and services startup said it
had 100 million Canadian dollars ($75 million) in firm orders as of Sept. 30, plus 30 million
Canadian dollars in options. UrtheCast said it had signed non-binding memoranda of
understanding with two prospective customers for a total of 370 million Canadian dollars.
Construction of the 16-satellite constellation will not begin until at least some
portion of this amount is transformed into binding commitments. UrtheCast
transformed itself this year with the purchase of Deimos Imaging of Spain and
Deimos two in-orbit optical Earth-imaging satellites . The Demos acquisition took effect
July 15, giving UrtheCast some 75 days of revenue from the acquisition in the three months ending Sept.
30.During the same period, the company began initial operations of its high-
resolution video camera, which was installed on the Earth-facing side of the
space station alongside UrtheCasts medium-resolution still camera . Deimos had
expected to report more than $40 million in revenue for 2015, with the summer months being the most
active as is the case for most optical satellite imagery-delivery companies .
UrtheCast officials declined during the Nov. 10 earnings call to say how much of their revenue and backlog
came with the Deimos purchase, and how much from the companys two ISS-mounted
cameras. The high-resolution video cameras pointing platform provided by
UrtheCast partner RSC Energia of Kaliningrad, Russia was defective and required new
cabling and a software patch. Full operations are expected to begin in the coming months.
UrtheCast had been investing in a second-generation camera system
for the space station, but has shifted focus to prepare for a 16-
satellite constellation of eight optical and eight synthetic-aperture radar satellites in low Earth
orbit, all to be built by small-satellite specialist Surrey Satellite Technology Ltd. (SSTL) of Britain.
UrtheCast Chief Executive Scott Larson declined to speculate on when construction might
begin, but confirmed that the company would be using customer
commitments to finance construction of the satellites and would not
commit to major spending before firm backlog was in place. These are long,
technical agreements with a dozen or so interested groups, Larson said. Weve moved two of these to
MoUs for a total of about 370 million dollars. The funnel [of interested prospective customers] is big and
The second-generation camera system for the space
were incredibly happy.
station a dual-mode camera plus a synthetic aperture radar will
now be put on hold to support development of the constellation . Larson
said one reason was a slip in the schedule of the new sensors deployment, and the second reason is that
The company will no
the constellation appears to be a more promising use of capital.
longer proceed with the installation of the sensors on the
International Space Station, Larson said, adding that UrtheCast remains bullish
on the future use of the station as an Earth observation platform. One of the two
customers that signed constellation-related MoUs had also signed an MoU valued at $65 million for data
from UrtheCasts second-generation camera system. Larson said a portion of that has now been shifted to
the constellation as part of a non-binding MoU, totaling $175 million, with the same customer. UrtheCast
has not disclosed the level of firm backlog it would need before contracting with SSTL to begin hardware
construction for the constellation. The company has said it would be launching the satellites in 2019 or
2020 and did not change that estimated schedule during the Nov. 10 conference call. UrtheCast divides
its business into two categories: engineering and support services; and Earth observation data sales.
The company is developing a Web-based imagery distribution platform , which it
recently made open-source instead of obliging application developers to sign non-disclosure agreements.
Outside observers have said the platform could become UrtheCasts most-valuable
asset over time. For the three months ending Sept. 30, UrtheCast reported 4.2 million Canadian
dollars in revenue from about 20 customers using its four in-orbit cameras two Deimos
satellites and the two space station cameras and 5.1 million Canadian dollars in revenue from
engineering services. Another 400,000 Canadian dollars came from Canadian government research and
development grants. The Earth observation data revenue carries the highest gross-profit margin, of 80-85
percent, Larson said, but engineering services is also very profitable.

The United States federal government and China both

have access to the video feeds means they can watch
what hits the satellites that solves miscalc
Neal 14 (Two New HD Cameras on the Space Station Will Livestream Earth From
Orbit Meghan Neal is a managing editor for Vice news and a writer for the Atlantic
based in New York; January 28, 2014, http://motherboard.vice.com/blog/two-new-hd-
cameras-on-the-space-station-will-livestream-earth-from-orbit - LK)
Astronauts sometimes say that the view of Earth from the cosmosa modest floating ball with a whole universe outside
its bordersgives you a new perspective on human life. Now anyone with an internet connection
can get that same view of the planet from 200 miles above, in HD. Urthecast,
one of the crop of startups launching satellites into space to capture high-resolution
imagery of the Earth, installed two cameras onto the International Space
Station yesterday, a video camera that will capture footage at 1 meter per
pixel resolution, and the static camera that will take shots at 5 meters per
pixel. That's the same level of detail youd get if you snapped a photo from a few feet away. Cosmonauts
Oleg Kotov and Sergey Ryazansky took a six-hour space walk to affix the
cameras to the spacecraft. NASA got the whole thing on filmcheck out the
video above. The cameras are now sending data back to a Mission Control Central
near Moscow. Urthecast plans to run a test phase before releasing any footage , but
the images on the companys website give you an idea of what to expect. Companies like Skybox and
Planet Labs are also using space-based cameras to get images and video of the
globe in unprecedented detail. Skybox is also selling Big Data analytics and insights
gleaned from its real-time surveillance; Planet Labs has a fleet of 28 microsatellites, similar to
CubeSats, that will monitor the planet from low orbit. But Urthcast's story is pretty unique. When
it was first starting out, it piqued the curiosity of the Russian spy agency, the RKA, who got
in touch with the Canadian company and offered up its segment of the Space Station , provided
it got to keep all the images of Russia. Once partnered up with Russia, the company raised
millions of dollars to install the cameras onto the spacecraft which, as you'd imagine,
is not an easy thing to do. Cosmonauts tried and failed in December; yesterday's space walk was the
second try, and was successful. Like the other spy satellites, Urthecast will rent out
the cameras for a price. Businesses or governments with deep
enough pockets can commission detailed HD imagery of certain
parts of the globe. It can be used to monitor forests, animal migration, factories, and so on. Getting
this level of quality images from space is definitely a landmark moment for
satellite photography. But theres something unsettling about being watched from above round the clock. The ISS
cameras are capable of capturing objects as small as cars, boats,
and groups of people from orbitbut not individuals, the company said. Not yet, at least. Another
comforting detail: The deal between Urthecast and Russia's space agency

specifies that the cameras can only be used for peaceful

purposes.

That solves their IL to miscalc by monitoring what caused

these in-orbit accidents that are thought to be Chinese-
launched missiles, or ASATs therefore determining how
we respond
 2NC
Video cameras on satellites can detect approaching
objects and send to government agencies
Shu 13 (Until space travel is available, we can ride virtually onboard
Ecuadors first satellite Digital Trends, Les Shu is an editor for Digital Trends
and an expert on current technology especially in the area of aviation; April
25, 2013, http://www.digitaltrends.com/photography/ecuador-launches-first-
satellite-with-earthcam-streaming-video-camera-onboard/ - LK)
Designed and built entirely in Ecuador, the small satellite will orbit approximately 400 miles above the
the satellite will be used for
planet. Named after the winged horse of Greek mythology, Pegasus,
technology demonstration, as well as to help
scientific research, education, and
detect near-Earth objects. For the rest of us, theres a visual treat in store. EXA has
partnered with EarthCam to mount a live streaming camera on the satellite
that users can tap into from the Web. EarthCam is a New Jersey-based
company that provides webcam content and services to companies and
government agencies for monitoring purposes; their Earthcam.com network of
global webcams let you visit sites like Times Square as a virtual tourist, and soon you can add outer space
to the list of places (befitting the companys name). Once the satellite is in orbit, viewers will be able to log
on and view the Earth and beyond. (EXA had started an Indiegogo campaign last year to help raise funds
for the video-streaming component, but it seems they had raised only $1,125 of the $450,000 goal; we are
assuming EarthCam helped fund the rest.)

That solves miscalc

Forden 7 (After China's Test: Time For a Limited Ban on Anti-Satellite Weapons
Arms Control Association, Geoffrey Forden is a research associate with the Science,
Technology, and Society Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He
served as chief of the multidisciplinary analysis section of the UN Monitoring,
Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC). April 2, 2007,
http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2007_04/Forden#bio - LK)

The situational awareness of objects in space that tracking provides

is important for two reasons: in avoiding collisions between
satellites, particularly for geostationary satellites and for the International
Space Station, and preventing false alarms by the North American
Aerospace Defense Command early-warning radars misidentifying a
satellite for an incoming warhead.[18] The Stimson Center 's code has
been designed to avoid bans on activities that would simulate attacks on
satellites because of the definitional problems discussed above. As a result,
countries unfortunately could still test complete ASAT systems under the
proposed code by using close flybys.
 AT: Video cameras cant track an ASAT missile
Video cameras watch ASAT movements
Forden 7 (After China's Test: Time For a Limited Ban on Anti-Satellite Weapons
Arms Control Association, Geoffrey Forden is a research associate with the Science,
Technology, and Society Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He
served as chief of the multidisciplinary analysis section of the UN Monitoring,
Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC). April 2, 2007,
http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2007_04/Forden#bio - LK)

China 's ASAT weapon hit its target, the obsolete Feng Yun-1C weather
satellite, almost head on with a rapid closing speed of just more than 8
kilometers per second.[3] To accomplish this, it almost certainly used an
onboard optical tracker. This is basically a video camera that would see the
satellite as a bright star, albeit one that moved very fast relative to the other
stars. If so, China has been developing this weapons system for quite some
time with previous flight tests of the tracking system, perhaps mounted on
experimental satellites.

That means, although we cant stop the missile, we can

tell if it was a missile launched by China or another
country, or something else that hit the satellite and that
independently solves miscalc
 AT: Perm
Perm still engages China, that links to the DAs, while the
CP doesnt means the CP is net better
 Aff
Perm do Both can have China join the ISS and fund more
video cameras on satellites
The aff increases shared tech and space info between
countries, meaning theyll share space surveillance
footage and camera technology that solves net better
than the CP
Video cameras already exist on satellites, video
surveillance must be shared with other countries and
space debris must be limited massive solvency deficits
to the CP
Forden 7 (After China's Test: Time For a Limited Ban on Anti-Satellite Weapons
Arms Control Association, Geoffrey Forden is a research associate with the Science,
Technology, and Society Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He
served as chief of the multidisciplinary analysis section of the UN Monitoring,
Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC). April 2, 2007,
http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2007_04/Forden#bio - LK)
Many feel that these definitional problems are impossible to overcome if international agreement is to be
reached.[13] In answer to this, the Henry L. Stimson Center , in collaboration with a number of other
nongovernmental organizations, has proposed a Code of Conduct for Space-Faring Nations. This code is
to avoid creating persistent space debris
still evolving,[14] but its key feature is a pledge
by following the guidelines of the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination
Committee (IADC).[15] Such a pledge would go a long way in protecting the
world's economic interests in outer space by creating an international taboo
against creating dangerous space junk. It would be an effective first step
in banning the weaponization of space if it can strengthen the
political commitments to the IADC's guidelines , guidelines with which the major
space-faring nations' technical experts have already agreed. Another important aspect of the
proposed code is the call for nations of the world to share space surveillance
data. Through a series of radars, ground-based optical telescopes, and even a
camera onboard a satellite, the United States observes and tracks almost all
the objects in space with diameters greater than 10 centimeters . The parameters
necessary to calculate the orbits for most of these are provided on a website open to the public.[16]
Other countries also maintain such observations but do not share them. It
would be an important confidence-building measure for all countries to share
this information. It would even improve satellite tracking because
satellites are occasionally lost for days or months at a time because of a
lack of observations at a crucial moment.[17] The situational awareness of objects in space
that tracking provides is important for two reasons: in avoiding collisions between satellites, particularly for
geostationary satellites and for the International Space Station, and preventing false alarms by the North
American Aerospace Defense Command early-warning radars misidentifying a satellite for an incoming
warhead.[18] The Stimson Center 's code has been designed to avoid bans on
activities that would simulate attacks on satellites because of the definitional problems
discussed above. As a result, countries unfortunately could still test complete
ASAT systems under the proposed code by using close flybys.
Miscalc-No First Use
 1NC
No First Use key to peacecurrent policies are failures
Krepon 16, Michael, co-founder of the Stimson Center. He worked
previously at the Carnegie Endowment, the State Department, and on Capitol
Hill. He has written over 400 articles and is the author or editor of twenty-one
books, including Better Safe than Sorry: The Ironies of Living with the Bomb;
Anti-Satellite Weapons, Deterrence and Sino-American Relations; and
Deterrence Stability and Escalation Control in South Asia. He was given the
Thrse Delpech Memorial Award for lifetime achievement in non-
governmental work to reduce nuclear dangers by the Carnegie Endowment
for International Peace in 2015, July 5, ALLIANCES AND NO FIRST USE,
<http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1201550/alliances-and-no-first-
use/>.
Beyond a generalized argument over reassurance, the case for
maintaining a first-use posture rests on localities around the periphery of
Russia and China and on the Korean Peninsula where the correlation of
conventional capabilities is likely to be insufficient for a prompt
conventional defense. Another argument, as noted above, is that by
adopting a No First Use posture, Washington would embolden Mr. Putin, Xi
Jinping, or Kim Jong-un to engage in riskier behavior. These arguments have
merit, but they arent decisive. The United States cannot afford to have
sufficient conventional capabilities everywhere they might be needed to repel
attacks promptly. But neither can the United States afford to cross the nuclear
threshold first in these contingencies. Answers must therefore be found
in maintaining adequate conventional forces in reserve, mobility,
agility, allies, and financial instruments that punish states that wage
war or seek to coerce allies. Since the Cold War ended if not before a
first-use posture by the United States has not influenced limited
wars and lesser military contingencies. (Exam question: Why didnt
Saddam Husseins use chemical weapons, but Bashar al-Assad did?) Nor has
a first-use posture prevented serious crises or assured positive
outcomes in crises. To believe otherwise to believe that maintaining a
first-use posture could help with limited wars and lesser military
contingencies is to disbelieve what has transpired over the past two
decades

No First Use could influence Asian nuclear policy

ACA 16, June 30, The Arms Control Association is a national nonpartisan
membership organization dedicated to promoting public understanding of
and support for effective arms control policies. Through its public education
and media programs and its magazine, Arms Control Today, we provide
policy-makers, the press and the interested public with authoritative
information, analysis and commentary on arms control proposals,
negotiations and agreements, and related national security issues, Take
Nuclear First-Use Off the Table,
<https://www.armscontrol.org/ACT/2016_07/Focus/Take-Nuclear-First-Use-Off-
the-Table>.
the risks of nuclear weapons use are still far too high, in part because
the policies developed to justify their possession and potential use
remain largely the same. Early in his presidency, President Barack Obama
made clear that he sought to put an end to Cold War thinking and pledged
to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in our national security strategy and
urge others to do the same. On June 6, deputy national security adviser Ben
Rhodes pledged that the president will continue to review whether there are
additional steps that can be taken to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in
our own strategies and to reduce the risk of inadvertent use. One very
important step would be for Obama to declare that the United States
will not be the first to use nuclear weapons. Such a decision could
unwind dangerous Cold War-era thinking and greatly strengthen U.S.
and global security. Limiting the circumstances under which the United
States would use nuclear weapons was a goal laid out by the Nuclear
Posture Review Report in 2010, which said the United States should pursue
the objective of making deterrence against a nuclear attack the sole
purpose of the nuclear arsenal. Nevertheless, current policy still leaves
several dangerous and destabilizing nuclear weapons-use options on the
table, including the option to use nuclear weapons first in a conflict to pre-
empt a real or suspected nuclear attack, to counter the possible use of
chemical or biological weapons, or to halt a massive conventional military
threat against U.S. forces or allies. Today, the United States and Russia still
deploy thousands of nuclear warheads on hundreds of bombers, missiles, and
submarines. Current U.S. strategy requires that there are enough nuclear
forces available to destroy nearly 1,000 enemy targets, many in urban areas,
and that these weapons can be launched within minutes of a decision to do
so. Maintaining such a capability plays a large role in compelling
Russiaand may soon help to lead Chinato field a sizable portion
of their nuclear forces in a launch-under-attack mode in order to
avoid a disarming nuclear strike. This, in turn, increases the chance that
nuclear weapons might be used or dispersed by U.S. adversaries in a crisis.
As Obama correctly said in 2008, the requirement for prompt launch is a
dangerous relic of the Cold War. Such policies increase the risk of catastrophic
accidents or miscalculation. By adopting a no-first-use policy, the
United States could positively influence the nuclear doctrines of
other nuclear-armed states, particularly in Asia. Such a shift in U.S.
declaratory policy could also alleviate concerns that U.S. ballistic missile
defenses might be used to negate the retaliatory potential of China and
Russia following a pre-emptive U.S. nuclear attack against their strategic
forces. Shifting to a no-first-use policy would not, in any way, undermine
the U.S. ability to deter nuclear attack by another state. It is well
established that U.S. nuclear forces and command-and-control systems could
withstand even a massive attack, and given the size, accuracy, and diversity
of U.S. forces, the remaining nuclear force would be more than
sufficient to deliver a devastating blow to any nuclear aggressor.
 2NC Solvency
NFU is key to avoid miscalc and first step towards
disarmament

Bo June 2016 Zhou Bo is an honorary fellow with Center of China-American

Defense Relations, Academy of Military Science, PLA, China. New
Consideration of Chinas No-First-Use of Nuclear Weapons Is Needed
http://www.chinausfocus.com/peace-security/new-consideration-of-chinas-no-
first-use-of-nuclear-weapons-is-needed/
The best way to a world without nuclear weapons is to reduce the role of
nuclear weapons in national security. For that to happen, nuclear-weapon
states should, among others, abandon the policies of nuclear deterrence and
pledge no-first-use of nuclear weapons. Here are some reasons: First of all,
no-first-use demonstrates the moral responsibility of nuclear weapon states.
After the Cold War, China has broken quite a few taboos in defense policies
such as no joint exercises with foreign countries, no stationing troops abroad
and no military base overseas. But China vows it will never change its nuclear
policies of not being the first to use nuclear weapons at any time and in any
circumstance and not to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-
nuclear-weapon states or nuclear-weapon-free zones. China is not the
strongest power either in nuclear weapons or in conventional weapons. If
China can make such a commitment, why cant the US, Russia, Britain and
France do the same? It is a shame for the strongest military powers with
superiority in conventional weapons to talk about using nuclear weapons
first. Secondly, a pledge of no-first-use does no harm to the nuclear capability
of the nuclear-weapon states. A commitment of no-first-use is defensive in
nature, but it doesnt exclude nuclear retaliation. If a nuclear power decides
to launch a nuclear strike against another nuclear power, it has to consider
the assured nuclear retaliation from the other side. Therefore a first use by
one nuclear power against another is highly improbable. Thirdly, no first use
is the best means to avoid miscalculations. Reportedly there are some 800
weapons the US and Russia each keep that can be fired within seconds.
During the Cold War there were quite a few cases of false alarms of nuclear
attacks from two superpowers. Former US Secretary of Defense William Perry
believes that the US at least three times received false alarms when the
military thought the Soviets had launched a nuclear attack, and we know of
at least two (false alarms) in the Soviet Union. Finally, the allegation that the
US needs nuclear weapons to protect its allies does not really hold water.
How likely is the DPRK to launch a pre-emptive nuclear strike on American
troops or American allies ROK and Japan? No matter how DPRK tries to bluff
about its nuclear capability, it has only done four nuclear tests. The maturity
of its nuclear technology is questionable. Its possession of nuclear weapons is
more for survival rather than a suicidal attack. A no-first-use is a natural step
forward from de-targeting of nuclear weapons at each other. In September
1994, China and Russia declared mutual no-first-use and de-targeting. In June
1998, China and the US declared mutual de-targeting. In May 2000, China,
together with the other four nuclear-weapon states, issued a joint statement
declaring that their nuclear weapons are not targeted at any country. So far
China remains the only nuclear weapon state that pledges no first use,
although India, a de facto nuclear-weapon state, made a similar promise. In
January 1994, China formally presented a draft text of the Treaty on the No-
First-Use of Nuclear Weapons to the other four nuclear-weapon states. Could
they accept Chinas proposal one day? For quite some time the US was not
warm towards Chinas proposal of de-targeting. The US believed de-targeting
was not verifiable and intentions could change overnight. But the nuclear test
of India and Pakistan in 1998 prompted US to quickly accept the Chinese
proposal to show solidarity. This eventually led to the joint de-targeting
agreement among five nuclear-weapon states in 2000. President Obama
admitted that a world without nuclear weapons may not be seen in his
lifetime. That, however, should not be an alibi for inaction. The US and
Russian arms reduction has slowed down. It should continue to the extent
that Britain, France and China which have much smaller nuclear arsenals
agree to join in the disarmament. At same time, Chinas no-first-use pledge
deserves new consideration by other nuclear powers. It doesnt cripple their
nuclear capabilities. It boosts confidence that a world free of nuclear weapons
is eventually possible.
 Solves Prolif
Lack of NFU drives Chinese modernization- failure to
reverse leads to high alert status by china making miscalc
likely

Rabia Akhtar July 2016 Ph.D in Security Studies from Kansas State University.
Assessing the Impact of Chinas MIRVs on South Asia
https://www.stimson.org/content/sav-review-series-china-belated-embrace-
mirvs-jeffrey-g-lewis

Second, Chinese nuclear forces are vulnerable to a U.S. first strike ,

particularly since China has a no first use (NFU) policy, but the United States
does not. It is anybodys guess whether the United States would be
tempted to conduct a pre-emptive strike in the event of a crisis given its
massive and precise conventional and nuclear capabilities. This
vulnerability has pushed the Chinese to modernize their nuclear arsenal,
which is neither as sophisticated nor as modern as the U.S. or Russian
variants. This is where MIRVing becomes important. China is
already putting multiple warheads on its largest missiles (the DF-5 and,
perhaps, the DF-41) and may develop smaller warheads in the future.
According to Lewis, silo-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs)
remain vulnerable to attack, but Chinese MIRVed DF-5s that survived a
U.S. first strike would pose the greatest challenge possible to U.S. missile
defenses. (p. 110) But the debate has moved beyond mere survivability
and the lack of credible nuclear retaliatory counterweight to supporting
launch-on-warning status, a readiness posture that the United States
currently maintains (with a variation of launch-on-attack). T his shift to
high-alert status, if made by China as a move to strengthen its fragile
deterrence vis--vis the United States, would add to the already precarious
strategic stability in the region, pulling India and Pakistan towards
reconsidering their readiness postures.

China nuclear modernization triggers allied prolif

Francis P. Sempa 2016 (He is an attorney, an adjunct professor of political
science at Wilkes University, and a contributing editor to American
Diplomacy) A new study reaches sobering conclusions on the potential for
nuclear proliferation. http://thediplomat.com/2016/02/nuclear-instability-in-
the-asia-pacific-region/

Other developments in this area provide additional reasons for concern.

Russia and Pakistan have doctrinally indicated that they will use nuclear
weapons first against opponents conventional forces. China is reconsidering
its declared no first use policy. Russia, China, and North Korea have
constructed or expanded underground nuclear complexes to both hide and
protect nuclear forces. Twenty-four nations have acquired ballistic missile
systems capable of delivering nuclear warheads.
Although much has been written about Chinas rise as a global power and
potential peer competitor to the United States, less attention has been paid
to Chinas growing nuclear arsenal and capabilities. Sokolski notes Chinas
efforts to modernize its nuclear-capable missiles; its production of sufficient
weapons-grade plutonium and uranium to make as many as 1200 nuclear
weapons; its development and deployment of ballistic missile submarines; its
construction and deployment of the DF-41 ICBM; its deployment of multiple
independently targetable warheads (MIRVs) on the DF-5 missiles; and its
increased uranium enrichment capacity, which will enable China to build
more than five hundred nuclear weapons per year by the year 2020. These
trends threaten to undermine the effectiveness of the U.S. extended nuclear
umbrella to Japan and South Korea, and cast doubts on Americas ability to
protect Taiwan, the Philippines, Australia, and other allies in the region. That,
in turn, could lead Japan and South Korea, and perhaps other vulnerable
countries, to seek their own nuclear deterrent. These trends, Sokolski
writes, invite disorder. How much depends on how well the United States,
Russia, China, and other key states deal with them.
 NFU Solves Deterrence
No First Use solves deterrence
Collin and Ware 16, Jean-Marie and Alyn, Alyn Ware is the Global Coordinator
of Parliamentarians for Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament. He also serves as the
International Representative of the Peace Foundation, Director of Aotearoa Lawyers for Peace,
Consultant at Large on the Committee on Nuclear Policy (USA) and the International
Association of Lawyers Against Nuclear Arms, Jean-Marie Collin is an independent consultant
working on national security issues in France. His area of expertise covers French nuclear
weapons, nuclear proliferation, NATO, Arms Control, Environment and Security and cluster
bombs, July 12, European Parliaments Demand No-First-Use Obamas
Nuclear Agenda Analysed, <http://www.indepthnews.net/index.php/nuclear-
abolition/527-european-parliaments-demand-no-first-use-obama-s-nuclear-
agenda-analysed>.
The Tbilisi Declaration is extremely significant because the 54 OSCE
parliamentary delegations supporting it include four of the nuclear-armed
States (France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States), as well as
all the NATO countries and all the former Soviet countries. In addition it
comes at a time when U.S. President Obama is considering next steps in
implementing his Prague Vision for a nuclear-weapon-free world. The
Washington Post reported on July 10 that a no-first-use policy is one of
the options being considered. If adopted, this would be a
fundamental shift in policy and a monumental step toward a nuclear-
weapon-free world. It could re-start the stalled nuclear reduction talks
with Russia, and kick-start pluri-lateral negotiations, i.e. amongst the
P5 (China, France, Russia, United Kingdom and United States) along with
India and Pakistan, explains Collin. Pluri-lateral nuclear disarmament
measures are unlikely to take place if nuclear doctrines continue to include
the option of first-use of nuclear weapons, notes Alyn Ware, PNND Global
Coordinator. Such doctrines imply that these weapons will continue to be
required to meet a range of threats including from conventional, chemical or
biological weapons. However, if the purpose of nuclear weapons is
changed to one of providing deterrence only against the nuclear
weapons of a potential enemy, then nuclear disarmament becomes
possible, as long as it can be verified, he adds. More simply put, he
explains, if nukes are to deter all sorts of evil, regardless of whether or not
they are effective against such threats, then we will hold onto nukes as long
as there is evil in the world. But if nukes are just to deter other nukes,
then we can work to eliminate the nukes together, jointly removing
the reason for keeping nukes.
 NFU Solves US/Russian Miscalc
No First Usage deescalates tensions with Russia
Cohen 16, Stephen, Stephen F. Cohen is professor emeritus of Russian
studies, history, and politics at New York University and Princeton University.
A Nation contributing editor, his recent book, Soviet Fates and Lost
Alternatives: From Stalinism to the New Cold War, is available in paperback
from Columbia University Press, July 13, Can Europe Stop Washingtons
Military Provocations on Russias Borders?
<https://www.thenation.com/article/can-europe-stop-washingtons-military-
provocations-on-russias-borders/>.
Extreme anti-Russian resolutions at the Warsaw Summit also revealed,
according to Cohen, another recurring feature of the preceding 40-year
Cold War: an increasingly public struggle between pro-detente
doves and militaristic hawks. Remarkably, prior to and even at the
summit, leaders of major NATO countriesGermany, France, and Italymade
clear that they do not regard Russia as an enemy or a threat, casting doubt
on NATOs military buildup on its new Eastern Front and the renewal of
economic sanctions against Russia. This vital political struggle to end or
at least curtail the new Cold War now is under way in Europe. But
even though Washington controls (and largely finances) NATO, no such high-
level struggle has broken out in the United States, where the political-media
establishment appears to be almost monolithically proCold War. Indeed,
Cohen thinks that only two leading American politicians have indicated
interest in any kind of dtente with Russia: Donald Trump, by a number of
elliptical but still undeveloped public statements; and possibly President
Obama. In last weeks broadcast, Cohen and Batchelor discussed reports that
Obama wants to achieve some kind of rapprochement with Putins
Russia as part of his foreign-policy legacy instead of the new Cold
War. Last weeks evidence was confirmed by reports that Obama had
proposed to Putin real US-Russian military cooperation against the Islamic
State in Syria. This week there was an additional report that Obama is
preparing to propose to Putin new mutual steps in the area of nuclear-arms
control, including taking warheads off high alert status and adoption of a
no-first-use doctrine by Washington and Moscow. Both measures
would considerably reduce the growing risk of nuclear war.
 AT: Hurts Deterrence
No scenario where difference between conventional and
nuclear deterrent matters, allies still believe in US nuclear
deterrent

ACT June 2016 (Arms Control Today- is a private, non-profit membership

organization dedicated to public education and support of effective arms
control measures pertaining to nuclear, chemical, biological, and
conventional weapons) Take Nuclear First-Use Off the Table
https://www.armscontrol.org/ACT/2016_07/Focus/Take-Nuclear-First-Use-Off-
the-Table
Shifting to a no-first-use policy would not, in any way, undermine the U.S.
ability to deter nuclear attack by another state. It is well established that U.S.
nuclear forces and command-and-control systems could withstand even a
massive attack, and given the size, accuracy, and diversity of U.S. forces, the
remaining nuclear force would be more than sufficient to deliver a
devastating blow to any nuclear aggressor. Given the overwhelming U.S.
conventional military edge, there is no plausible circumstance that could
justifylegally, morally, or militarilythe use of nuclear weapons to deal with
a non-nuclear threat. U.S. nuclear weapons are useless in deterring or
responding to nuclear terrorism or to a potential chemical, biological, or
cyberattack by state or nonstate actors. A no-first-use policy would not
undermine confidence in U.S. defense commitments to key allies. Even if
there were to be a conventional military conflict with a nuclear-armed state,
such as Russia in the Baltic Sea region or elsewhere, the employment of
nuclear weapons would be counterproductive because it would trigger an
uncontrollable and potentially suicidal escalation of nuclear weapons use. As
a result, the threat of nuclear weapons first-use to counter non-nuclear
attacks lacks credibility. In remarks delivered in Hiroshima May 27, Obama
declared that among those nations like my own that hold nuclear stockpiles,
we must have the courage to escape the logic of fear and pursue a world
without them. Yes, we must. A U.S. no-first-use policy would reduce the risk
of nuclear catastrophe, improve the prospects for further Russian nuclear
cuts, and draw China into the nuclear risk reduction process. It would put a
spotlight on the dangerous nuclear doctrines of Pakistan and North Korea,
where the risk of nuclear weapons use is perhaps most severe, and challenge
them to reconsider the first-use option.
 NFU Solves Prolif Cred
No first usage is the first step towards a peaceful future
Falk 16, John, Richard Falk is Albert G. Milbank Professor Emeritus of
International Law at Princeton University and Visiting Distinguished Professor
in Global and International Studies at the University of California, Santa
Barbara. He has authored and edited numerous publications spanning a
period of five decades, most recently editing the volume International Law
and the Third World: Reshaping Justice (Routledge, 2008), He is currently
serving his third year of a six year term as a United Nations Special
Rapporteur on Palestinian human rights, July 10, Why Arms Control is the
Enemy of Nuclear Disarmament, <http://mwcnews.net/focus/analysis/59785-
nuclear-disarmament.html>.
arms control measures unless tied to a disarmament scenario make
the retention of nuclear weapons less prone to accident, inadvertent
use, and unnecessary missions while reinforcing the logic of deterrence
and indirectly expressing the view that a reliable nonproliferation
regime is the best that can be hoped for ever since the nuclear genie
escaped confinement. Such an approach makes the advocacy of nuclear
disarmament appear to be superfluous idealism, at best, and an imprudent
challenge to deterrence and realism, at worst. There is a coherent
argument for such a posture, but it is not one that credible supporters of
a nuclear zero or nuclear disarmament should feel comfortable with as it
undercuts their supposed priority to eliminate the weaponry once and for all,
although moving to zero by verified stages. This contrasts with the central
undertaking of the arms control community to live with nuclear weapons
as prudently as possible, which translates into nonproliferation,
safety, prudent foreign policy, non-provocative weapons
development and deployment, and trustworthy crisis management.
Printed below is a recent editorial of the Arms Control Association proposing
the American adoption of a no first use policy as a crucial
declaratory step in advancing their agenda of nuclear prudence. Its
line of argument well illustrates the overall nuclearist logic of the arms
control establishment, which also tries to justify its proposal by showing
that nuclear weapons are not needed to fulfill Americas worldwide
geopolitical ambitions.
 NFU is XO- Doesnt Cost PC
No First Usage solves and doesnt link to PTX
Japan Times 16, Japans oldest English language newspaper. The
company was founded in 1897 and is today the countrys only independent
English-language newspaper, July 12, Column says Obama weighing
declaration of no first use nuclear policy,
<http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/07/12/world/politics-diplomacy-
world/column-says-obama-weighing-declaration-no-first-use-nuclear-
policy/#.V4WBT_krKYk>.
U.S. President Barack Obama is considering declaring a no first use
policy for Americas nuclear arsenal as part of a set of nuclear policy options
he is expected to promote in his final six months in office, according to a
column carried in the Monday edition of the Washington Post. If Obama were
to declare the policy, it would represent a landmark change in the U.S.
nuclear posture. It would also weaken the countrys nuclear deterrent as
Republican lawmakers argue, and spark concern among Japan, South Korea
and other allies under the U.S. nuclear umbrella. Quoting several U.S. officials
briefed on the options, columnist Josh Rogin wrote the Obama administration
is also considering scaling back budgets for modernizing the countrys
nuclear arsenal and seeking a U.N. Security Council resolution affirming a ban
on the testing of nuclear weapons. Such options represent Obamas call
to reduce the role of nuclear weapons and eventually rid the world
of such weapons in his 2009 address in Prague. Rogin cited opponents in
Congress as saying the administration is not taking into consideration how
big changes in U.S. unclear policy would affect allies that live under the U.S.
nuclear umbrella, especially in Europe and Northeast Asia. According to the
column, national security Cabinet members held two meetings in recent
weeks to review options for executive actions on nuclear policy. Many of the
options on the table are controversial, but none of them require
formal congressional approval.

Obama can make it happen without congress

Burke 16, Cathy, July 11, Cathy Burke is a contributor for NewsMax,
Obama Plans More Nuclear Disarmament in Final Days,
<http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/Obama-Plans-Nuclear-
Disarmament/2016/07/11/id/738032/>.
national security members in the Obama administration's cabinet, known as
the Principals Committee, had two meetings to review options for
executive actions on nuclear policy none of which require formal
congressional approval and many of which are controversial and have
already drawn the ire of GOP congressional leaders. "By focusing on nuclear
weapons, Obama sees an opportunity to cement a foreign policy
legacy despite setbacks and incomplete efforts in several other areas," Rogin
writes. "But by doing it unilaterally, without congressional buy-in, and in a
hurried way, he risks launching policies that might not last much longer than
his presidency." Rogin, citing unnamed U.S. officials, reports nuclear cutback
options include: Implementing a "no first use" policy for the United
States' nuclear arsenal, which Rogin notes would be a "landmark
change" in the country's nuclear posture. Pursuit of a U.N. Security
Council resolution affirming a ban on the testing of nuclear weapons. Offering
Russia a five-year extension of the already achieved "New START" treaty's
limits on deployed nuclear weapons. Cancellation or delay of development of
a new nuclear cruise missile, called the Long-Range Stand-Off weapon,
because it's designed for a limited nuclear strike something Obama doesn't
believe the United States needs. Cutting back long-term plans for
modernizing the nation's nuclear arsenal, which the Congressional
Budget Office reports will cost about $350 billion over the next decade.
Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker and Senate Armed
Services Committee Chairman John McCain are already up in arms, Rogin
notes.
 K/T Legacy
Key to Obama Legacy
Rogin 16, Josh, Columnist at Bloomberg View and Political Analyst at CNN,
The Daily Beast, Foreign Policy Magazine, Congressional Quarterly, George
Washington UniversityJuly 10, Obama plans major nuclear policy changes in
his final months <https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-
opinions/obama-plans-major-nuclear-policy-changes-in-his-final-
months/2016/07/10/fef3d5ca-4521-11e6-88d0-6adee48be8bc_story.html>.
Opponents in Congress also believe the administration is not taking into
consideration how big changes in U.S. nuclear policy would affect allies that
live under the U.S. nuclear umbrella, especially in Europe and Northeast Asia.
But arms control advocates, Democratic lawmakers and former officials are
pressing the administration to announce as many new policies as possible.
For them, Obama has one last chance to make good on his nuclear
promises. Its pretty clear the Prague agenda has stalled, said Joe
Cirincione, president of the Ploughshares Fund, which supports groups
advocating for nuclear nonproliferation. There isnt anything that the
president does that isnt criticized by his opponents, so he might as
well do what he wants. Hes relishing his last days in office. By focusing
on nuclear weapons, Obama sees an opportunity to cement a foreign
policy legacy despite setbacks and incomplete efforts in several
other areas. But by doing it unilaterally, without congressional buy-in, and in
a hurried way, he risks launching policies that might not last much longer
than his presidency.

Obama adamant about nuclear drawbackkey to

disarmament
The Barack Obama 16, POTUS, March 30, Obama: How we can make
our vision of a world without nuclear weapons a reality,
<https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/obama-how-we-can-make-our-
vision-of-a-world-without-nuclear-weapons-a-reality/2016/03/30/3e156e2c-
f693-11e5-9804-537defcc3cf6_story.html?tid=a_inl>.
Of all the threats to global security and peace, the most dangerous
is the proliferation and potential use of nuclear weapons. Thats why,
seven years ago in Prague, I committed the United States to stopping
the spread of nuclear weapons and to seeking a world without them. This
vision builds on the policies of presidents before me, Democrat and
Republican, including Ronald Reagan, who said we seek the total
elimination one day of nuclear weapons from the face of the Earth.
Thursday in Washington, Ill welcome more than 50 world leaders to our
fourth Nuclear Security Summit to advance a central pillar of our Prague
Agenda: preventing terrorists from obtaining and using a nuclear weapon.
Well review our progress, such as successfully ridding more than a dozen
countries of highly enriched uranium and plutonium. Nations, including the
United States, will make new commitments, and well continue
strengthening the international treaties and institutions that
underpin nuclear security. Given the continued threat posed by
organizations such as the terrorist group we call ISIL, or ISIS, well also join
allies and partners in reviewing our counterterrorism efforts, to prevent the
worlds most dangerous networks from obtaining the worlds most dangerous
weapons. Beyond preventing nuclear terrorism, weve made important
progress toward the broader vision I outlined in Prague. First, were taking
concrete steps toward a world without nuclear weapons. The United States
and Russia remain on track to meet our New START Treaty
obligations so that by 2018 the number of deployed American and Russian
nuclear warheads will be at their lowest levels since the 1950s. Even as the
United States maintains a safe, secure and effective nuclear arsenal to deter
any adversary and ensure the security of our allies, Ive reduced the number
and role of nuclear weapons in our national security strategy. I also have
ruled out developing new nuclear warheads and narrowed the contingencies
under which the United States would ever use or threaten to use nuclear
weapons. Second, were strengthening the global regime including
the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty that prevents the spread of
nuclear weapons. Weve succeeded in uniting the international community
against the spread of nuclear weapons, notably in Iran. A nuclear-armed Iran
would have constituted an unacceptable threat to our national security and
that of our allies and partners. It could have triggered a nuclear arms race in
the Middle East and begun to unravel the global nonproliferation regime.
After Iran initially rejected a diplomatic solution, the United States mobilized
the international community to impose sanctions on Iran, demonstrating that
nations that fail to meet their nuclear obligations will face consequences.
After intense negotiations, Iran agreed to a nuclear deal that closes every
single one of its paths to a nuclear weapon, and Iran is now being subjected
to the most comprehensive inspection regimen ever negotiated to monitor a
nuclear program. In other words, under this deal, the world has prevented yet
another nation from getting a nuclear bomb. And well remain vigilant to
ensure that Iran fulfills its commitments. Third, were pursuing a new
framework for civil nuclear cooperation so countries that meet their
responsibilities can have access to peaceful nuclear energy. The international
fuel bank that I called for seven years ago is now being built in Kazakhstan.
With it, countries will be able to realize the energy they seek without
enriching uranium, which could be at risk of diversion or theft.
 Aff Answers
NFU Kills deterrence and leads to China Russian
expansionism

Dr. Keith B. Payne 7/6/16 ( president of National Institute for Public Policy,
head, Graduate Department of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State
University (Washington area campus) and a former deputy assistant secretary
of defense.)
http://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2016/07/06/once_again_why_a_no-
first-use_policy_is_a_bad_very_bad_idea_109520.html
The Obama Administration reportedly is seriously considering adopting a No-
First-Use (NFU) nuclear policy.[1] A prospective NFU policy would be a US
commitment never to be the first to use nuclear weaponsas opposed to
existing policy that retains some ambiguity regarding when and if the US
would use nuclear weapons. An NFU policy would eliminate that ambiguity for
US adversaries. It sounds warm and progressive, and has long been a policy
proposal of disarmament activists. NFU has, however, been rejected by all
previous Democratic and Republican administrations for very sound reasons,
most recently by the Obama Administration in 2010. The most important of
these reasons is that retaining a degree of US nuclear ambiguity helps to
deter war while adopting an NFU policy would undercut the deterrence of war.
How so? Under the existing policy of ambiguity, potential aggressors such as
Russia, China, North Korea or Iran must contemplate the reality that if they
attack us or our allies, they risk possible US nuclear retaliation. There is no
doubt whatsoever that this risk of possible US nuclear retaliation has deterred
war and the escalation of conflicts. In fact, the percentage of the world
population lost to war has fallen dramatically since US nuclear deterrence
was established after World War II.[2] That is an historic accomplishment. The
fatal flaw of the warm and progressive-sounding NFU proposal is that it tells
would-be aggressors that they do not have to fear US nuclear retaliation even
if they attack us or our allies with advanced conventional, chemical, and/or
biological weapons. They would risk US nuclear retaliation only if they attack
with nuclear weapons. As long as they use non-nuclear forces, a US NFU
policy would provide aggressors with a free pass to avoid the risk now posed
by the US nuclear deterrent. Promising potential aggressors that they can use
modern conventional, chemical or biological weapons against us or our allies
without fear of possible US nuclear retaliation will encourage some to
perceive greater license to do precisely that. Numerous historical case
studies demonstrate without a doubt that some aggressors look for such
openings to undertake their military moves to overturn a status quo they
deem intolerable. They do not need to see a risk-free path to pursue
aggression, only a path that allows them some vision of success, however
improbable that vision may seem to others. The great advantage of current
US nuclear policy is that the US nuclear deterrent helps to shut down the
possibility that would-be aggressors contemplate such paths.

NFU allows Russia/China expansion

Dr. Keith B. Payne 7/6/16 ( president of National Institute for Public Policy,
head, Graduate Department of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State
University (Washington area campus) and a former deputy assistant secretary
of defense.)
http://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2016/07/06/once_again_why_a_no-
first-use_policy_is_a_bad_very_bad_idea_109520.html

A US NFU policy would be particularly dangerous at a time when both Russia

and China may be armed with chemical and biological weapons and are
pursuing expansionist policies in Europe and Asia, respectively, to overturn
the status quo.[3] Russia is by far the strongest military power in Europe. It
has moved repeatedly against neighboring states since 2008, forcibly
changing established borders in Europe for the first time since World War II
and issuing explicit nuclear first-use threats in the process. Only several
months ago, Russia reportedly rehearsed the invasion of Norway, Finland,
Sweden and Denmark in a military exercise involving 33,000 troops.[3] In
Asia, China is the strongest military power and is expanding its reach against
US allies, including by building and militarizing islands in the South China
Sea. At a time when key US allies face unprecedented threats from powerful
neighbors, the US should not reduce the calculation of risks Russia and China
must confront in their respective expansionist drives by adopting a US NFU
policy. Indeed, saying so should be considered a breathtaking
understatement in a world in which aggressors still exist, as do advanced
conventional, chemical and biological weapons, and another world war using
only such modern non-nuclear weapons could cause death levels far
beyond the 80-100 million souls lost in World Wars I and II.

NFU causes allied prolif

Dr. Keith B. Payne 7/6/16 ( president of National Institute for Public Policy,
head, Graduate Department of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State
University (Washington area campus) and a former deputy assistant secretary
of defense.)
http://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2016/07/06/once_again_why_a_no-
first-use_policy_is_a_bad_very_bad_idea_109520.html
In addition, the Obama Administration declares nuclear nonproliferation to be
its highest nuclear policy goal.[5] Yet, US adoption of an NFU policy would
mean that the United States could no longer assure allies with its nuclear
umbrella. No longer would their foes confront the deterring risk of US nuclear
retaliation should those foes consider a devastating conventional, chemical or
biological attack on US allies and partners. Pulling down the US nuclear
umbrella so precipitously would compel some allies and partners who have
foregone nuclear weapons in the past, on the basis of the promised US
nuclear deterrence umbrella, to consider acquiring their own nuclear
weapons. This could include South Korea and Japan. As such, additional
nuclear proliferation is virtually an inevitable consequence of a US NFU policy.
Sanction China CP
 1NC
CP text: The United States federal government Treasury
Department should impose targeted, limited sanctions on
China
CP solves the entire case - Targeted sanctions solve
Chinese aggressive policies including the SCS conflict and
cyber activity, while gaining multilateral support and
boosting the U.S.
Cooper and Lorber 16 (The Right Way to Sanction China The
National Interest; February 23, 2016; Zack Cooper is a fellow with the Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and
International Studies (CSIS), where he focuses on Asian security issues. Prior to joining CSIS, Mr. Cooper worked as a research fellow at the
Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. He previously served on the White House staff as assistant to the deputy national security
adviser for combating terrorism. He also worked as a civil servant in the Pentagon, first as a foreign affairs specialist and then as a special
assistant to the principal deputy under secretary of defense for policy. Mr. Cooper received a B.A. from Stanford University and an M.P.A. and
M.A. from Princeton University, where he is a doctoral candidate in security studies. Eric B. Lorber is an Adjunct Fellow at the Center for a New
American Security, focusing on issues related to economic sanctions and financial security. He is concurrently a senior associate at the
Financial Integrity Network, where he advises financial clients on issues related to economic sanctions, anti-money laundering, and regulatory
compliance. Prior to joining FIN, he was an associate in the Washington, D.C. office of Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher, where he advised clients in the

areas of international trade regulation, compliance, and anti-corruption, with particular emphasis and experience assisting clients in complying
with the economic sanctions and embargo regulations administered by the U.S. Department of the Treasurys Office of Foreign Assets Control
(OFAC). While in law school, Eric worked in the Office of Chief Counsel at OFAC and in the Office of Terrorist Financing and Financial Crime at

the Treasury Department. His commentary on sanctions and related issues has appeared in Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, The National
Interest, Cato Unbound, The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Middle East Policy Journal, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, and Reuters, among
others. Mr. Lorber graduated from the University of Pennsylvania Law School, where he received the Noyes E. Leech Award for highest

achievement in international law and was a member of the Moot Court Board and a Arthur Littleton and H. Clayton Louderback Legal Writing
Instructor. He graduated from Columbia University, where he earned a Bachelor of Arts in Political Science, magna cum laude and with
departmental honors, and was awarded the Charles Beard Prize for academic achievement. Mr. Lorber is admitted to practice in Maryland and

the District of Columbia and currently maintains a Secret-level security clearance. He is a Term Member of the Council on Foreign Relations and
a Next Generation National Security Fellow at the Center for a New American Security., http://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-right-way-
sanction-china-15285 - LK)

Over the last five years, the United States has struggled to influence
Chinese behavior. Washingtons responses to Beijings increasingly
assertive activities have been largely ineffective . Yet U.S. leaders are now
considering a new option: economic sanctions. Conventional wisdom holds that
the U.S.-Chinese economic relationship is too big to fail and that Washington
therefore has little economic leverage with Beijing . Indeed, U.S. policymakers should be
realistic that extensive sanctions against China would be unwise and infeasible .
Nevertheless, certain limited, conduct-based sanctions may be able
to shape Chinese behavior at an acceptable cost. The surprising aspect
of the debate in Washington over whether to sanction China is that it took so
long to emerge; within the last decade, the United States has sanctioned every one of its major
national-security concerns other than China. Iran, Russia, North Korea and terrorist groups have found
themselves facing not only U.S. unilateral sanctions, but extensive international sanctions regimes.
President Barack Obama issued an
Acknowledging the need for more effective policy options,
executive order providing the Treasury Department authority to sanction
state and nonstate actorsincluding Chinese entitiesengaging in malicious cyber
activity. Last year, the administration threatened to impose sanctions on a number of Chinese persons in
candidates have suggested
the lead up to President Xis state visit. Likewise, various presidential
that the United States impose sanctions against Chinese agencies or
businesses involved in cyber attacks against economic targets. Yet China is not
Russia or Iran, and trying to impose an extensive sanctions regime on Beijing
would be both unwise and ultimately ineffective . Given Chinas global economic
importancenotwithstanding its recent economic troublesU.S. policymakers would struggle
to attract the international support required to implement an extensive
sanctions regime in response to cyber attacks or regional coercion. In addition,
unlike the Russian or Iranian economies, which are dependent on energy exports, the Chinese economy is
highly diversified and would be much more resilient to sanctions. Even if such sanctions could be
constructed, China has the economic heft and political influence to hit back and do real damage to both
U.S. companies and broader U.S. interests. If Beijing viewed extensive economic sanctions as an effort to
undermine the economic basis of the Chinese Communist Partys ruleparticularly in the aftermath of
Chinas recent economic stumblesBeijings response could be highly escalatory. In short, Chinas global
importance and its enormous economy inoculate it against the type of extensive sanctions levied on Russia
and Iran.Nevertheless, the United States has a set of more targeted
economic options for shaping Chinese behavior. These options would
need to be limited and designed to deter or reverse specific destabilizing
activities undertaken by Chinese individuals, companies or agencies. While these
options are far from perfect, they may provide policymakers better responses than
threatening to use military forceor watching idly as China alters the status
quo. STARTING IN THE mid-2000s, the United States began employing highly
sophisticated and targeted economic sanctions. Washington found new ways to
pressure rogue actors by leveraging the dollars importance in the world financial system, private
firms reputational concerns and the fact that the United States is the hub for many technologies
necessary for economic development abroad. The construction of sophisticated sanctions
regimes effectively rehabilitated sanctions as an effective tool of foreign policy
after they fell out of favor in the late 1990s. In the case of Iran, the United States
used its position as the financial capital of the worldand its largest market to force foreign
companies to abandon their business with the Islamic Republic. The U.S. Treasury
Department threatened companies with a choice: either do business in U.S. financial markets (and have
access to U.S. dollars for transactional purposes) or do business in Iran. A large number of foreign firms
consequently ceased doing business with Iran, exerting economic pressure on the Islamic Republic. This
ability to impose biting sanctions wasat least in partresponsible for
bringing Iran to the negotiating table and ultimately concluding the nuclear
deal. Similarly, the United States has imposed sophisticated sanctions on
Russia that target Moscows ability to refinance its massive external debt and
prevent its firms from developing key energy resources. These sanctions
leverage U.S. asymmetric advantages, such as technological superiority
and attractive capital markets. The sanctions prevent U.S. energy companies from providing
Russian firms with cutting-edge technologies to develop difficult-to-reach oil resources. U.S. and European
Union sanctions also prohibit Western financial firms from dealing in new Russian debt or equity with more
than a thirty-day maturity period. This makes it difficult for Russian companies to secure the necessary
Policymakers have seen the powerful
financing to service the countrys massive debt.
impact of these sanctions and concluded that they can be used to address a
wider range of foreign policy issues. As U.S. Treasury official David S. Cohen noted in a 2014
speech, [f]inancial power has become an essential component of our countrys
national security toolkit. That fact may mean that we are called on to use it more frequently and
in more complex ways than we have in previous decades. Not surprisingly, U.S.
policymakers have grown more interested in employing sanctions to counter
Chinese activities. White House officials have threatened to sanction perpetrators of cyber attacks.
Likewise, policymakers have investigated whether sanctions could blunt
Chinas increasingly assertive maritime activities. Based on public statements
and private discussions, it is clear that the administration is moving closer to
employing economic leverage to shape Chinese behavior. YET EFFECTIVELY using
extensive sanctions to deter Chinese economic espionage and maritime assertiveness is likely to prove
difficult. First, imposing extensive sanctions would be politically difficult within the United States. Most U.S.
policymakers recognize that Chinas rise presents many opportunities for the United States. Chinas
economic dynamism has pulled hundreds of millions out of poverty and energized regional and global
economies. Beijings growing political influence could help alleviate shared problems such as climate
change and nuclear proliferation. Chinas increasingly capable military could even cooperate with the
United States to conduct humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, noncombatant evacuation and
peacekeeping operations abroad. For these reasons, the Obama administration has
attempted to focus its relationship with China on shared interests rather than divergent perspectives.
to
Imposing extensive economic sanctions on China would seriously damage bilateral ties. For example,
authorize sanctions against China for its activities in the South China Sea, U.S.
law requires the president declare a national emergency in response to an unusual and extraordinary
threat to the United States. While such a declaration is pro forma under most U.S. sanctions programs,
declaring that Chinas actions pose an extraordinary threat to the United States would be a major political
step and appears unlikely during the current administration.
 2NC
These sanctions would specifically target Chinese energy
companies in the SCS
Glaser 15 (Conflict in the South China Sea CSIS Bonnie S. Glaser is senior
advisor for Asia, Freeman chair in China studies, and senior associate, Pacific
Forum, at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. April 2015;
http://www.cfr.org/asia-and-pacific/conflict-south-china-sea/p36377 - LK)
The United States should be prepared to respond to future Chinese coercive
acts including using U.S. naval forces to deter China's continuing use of "white hulled" paramilitary
vessels. Other responses, such as imposing economic sanctions on Chinese energy
companies should they drill in contested waters , are also conceivable but should
not be specified in advance.

Sanctions could reduce tensions in the SCS

CFR 5-27-16 (Chinas Maritime Disputes Council on Foreign Relations; Shen Dingli
Professor of International Relations, Fudan University Elizabeth Economy C.V. Starr Senior
Fellow and Director for Asia Studies, CFR Richard Haass President, CFR Joshua Kurlantzick
Senior Fellow for Southeast Asia, CFR Sheila A. Smith Senior Fellow for Japan Studies, CFR
Simon Tay Chairman, Singapore Institute of International Affairs; published Febraury 2016,
updated May 27, 2016, http://www.cfr.org/asia-and-pacific/chinas-maritime-
disputes/p31345#!/p31345 - LK)

the parties to the dispute could respond to a rise

Despite extensive trade ties,
in tensions by imposing economic sanctions. In response to a Chinese
action, for instance, the United States could sanction financial
transactions, the movement of some goods and services, and even
travel between the two countries. In retaliation, Beijing could bar U.S. exports and cut
back on its extensive holdings of U.S. Treasuries. Claimants could also manipulate exports and relaunch
boycotts of goods. Signals of such a response have already been seen: in 2012 Chinese protesters
launched a wave of boycotts of Japanese-made products. Japan also accused China of halting exports of
rare earth minerals after a territorial spat in 2010a charge Beijing deniedcausing a commodities crisis
for resource-dependent Japan.
 AT: Permutation
CP mutually exclusive definitely cant sanction China and
still expect to be able to join the bank, one boosts
economic engagement and the other cuts it off the 2
cant happen in the same world
Here are some warrants the aff increases infrastructure
development in the SCS by regional companies via the
AIIB, yet the CP is sanctioning those companies meaning
they wouldnt be able to build infrastructure
 AT: Targeted Sanctions Fail
US targeted sanctions on terrorist organizations prove
they can freeze individuals, groups, and corporations in
their actions solves SCS
Terlingon 10 (The United States and the UN's Targeted Sanctions of
Suspected Terrorists: What Role for Human Rights? Carnegie Council: Ethics
& International Affairs, Volume 24.2; Yvonne Terlingon is the head of Amnesty
International's United Nations Office in New York since 2001 and is one of the
foremost experts in UN human rights institutions while also being a member
of the Steering Committee of the 1 for 7 Billion; summer 2010,
https://www.carnegiecouncil.org/publications/journal/24_2/essays/002.html/:pf
_printable - LK)
A central element of US policy in combating the financing of terrorism
is the UN targeted sanctions regime of alleged members and associates of al-Qaeda and the
Taliban under the ''listing procedure,'' established by Security Council Resolution 1267 in 1999. The council
acted in response to attacks on US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania the previous year that were blamed
on Osama bin Laden. That resolution, passed fully two years before the attacks of 9/11, and strengthened
in subsequent binding resolutions, all of which exclude references to human rights,3 oblige all UN member
states to freeze the assets of and impose travel bans on individuals and entities whose names appear on
the ''Consolidated List'' maintained by the al-Qaeda and Taliban Sanctions Committeein UN shorthand,
The Sanctions Committee, composed of all fifteen members of the Security
''the 1267 Committee.''
Council, has the power to identify and ensure the freezing of assets of
individuals, groups, and corporations associated with al-Qaeda and the
Taliban anywhere in the world, and it is assisted by an eight-member Monitoring Team. One
expert observer, Eric Rosand of the Center on Global Counterterrorism Cooperation, has called the
Sanctions Committee ''one of the UN's least transparent and least representative fora.''4 In the weeks
following September 11, 2001, the United States swiftly added some 200 names to the Consolidated List.
Since other members of the Security Council were at that time given a mere forty-eight hours (which has
now been extended to five days) to challenge a listing, and since states were usually given no more details
than a name, those put on the list were usually there to stay. As of March 10, 2010, there were 498 names
on the list: 137 individuals associated with the Taliban, 258 individuals associated with al-Qaeda, and 103
Certainly, states
entities associated with al-Qaeda. Many of them have been on the list for nine years.
are obliged to protect their citizens from terrorist acts, and few would
question that freezing assets and banning travel of suspected terrorists and
their associates can help prevent terrorist acts and may be an important
counterterrorism tool. Moreover, as the High Commissioner for Human Rights has recognized,
''the system of targeted sanctions represents an improvement over
the former system of comprehensive sanctions.''5 However, the targeted
sanctions regime has come under increasingly sharp criticismincluding in some countries that are
permanent members of the Security Council themselvesfor its lack of transparency and the total absence
of due process guarantees in the ''listing and de-listing'' procedure of suspected terrorists. Countries find
themselves torn by their obligation under Article 103 of the UN Charter to implement binding Security
Council resolutions, on the one hand, and their obligations to uphold equally binding human rights treaties,
on the other.
The absence of such basic legal safeguards, largely at the
insistence of China, Russia, and the United States, and acquiesced to by most
other Security Council members, is all the more surprising in a regime established by a
principal organ of the United Nations, which is bound by its Charter to ''act in conformity with the principles
of justice and international law.'' Indeed, the absence of procedural fairness and the consequent
implications for the authority of the UN as a beacon of international law attracted the concern of then UN
Secretary-General Kofi Annan after world leaders, some from countries whose nationals appeared on UN
 fair and clear
sanctions lists, in 2005 formally urged the Security Council ''to ensure that
procedures exist for placing individuals and entities on sanctions lists and for
removing them as well as for granting humanitarian exemptions. ''6
Incorporating basic legal safeguards in such a sanctions regime is essential
not only from a human rights perspective but also to ensure the system's
effectiveness as an important counterterrorism tool. Effectiveness depends, in part, on
whether the measures are, and are perceived to be, legitimate. Many countriesnotably in Europehave
become increasingly reluctant to propose new names to be added to the list. So what are the problems
with the ''listing'' procedure? Quite a few.
 Aff
Perm do both can sanction China in the SCS and still join
the bank
Turn sanctions escalate SCS conflict and major
solvency deficit to the CP- doesnt establish direct
communication
Glaser 12 (Armed Clash in the South China Sea Council on Foreign Relations;
Bonnie S. Glaser, Senior Advisor for Asia, Center for Strategic and International
Studies; April, 2012; http://www.cfr.org/asia-and-pacific/armed-clash-south-china-
sea/p27883 - LK)
Dispatching air and naval forces to the immediate vicinity of an armed clash to defend U.S. interests and deter further
escalation should always be considered an option. Such actions, however, must be balanced against the possibility that
they will produce the opposite effect, encouraging an even stronger response from China and causing further escalation of
a confrontation. A less risky option would be to threaten nonmilitary consequencesdiplomatic and economic
sanctionsto force China to back off and deter further military action. But here again such measures may only
inflame hostilities and escalate the crisis. It is also doubtful in any case
whether such measures would be supported by many in the region given
China's economic importance. Several less provocative responses might
contain a budding crisis while avoiding further escalation. One option for
the United States would be to encourage a mediated dialogue between
involved parties. However, while Southeast Asian states may welcome a neutral mediator, China would probably
oppose it. Thus, such an effort would likely fail. Direct communication between military
officials can be effective in de-escalating a crisis. States involved should
establish communication mechanisms, include provisions for both scheduled
and short-notice emergency meetings, and mandate consultation during a
crisis. Emergency meetings would focus on addressing the specific
provocative action that brought about the crisis . Operational hotlines,
including phone lines and radio frequencies with clear protocols and points of
contact, should also be set up. To be effective, hotlines should be set up and used prior to
a crisis, though even then there is no guarantee that they will be used by both sides if a crisis erupts. China and
Vietnam have already agreed to establish a hotline; this could be a model for
other states in the region and China. The goal would not be to resolve underlying issues, but to
contain tensions in the event of a minor skirmish and prevent escalation.
More solvency deficits to the CP doesnt enforce any
Chinese transparency, code of conduct, or foreign policing
against a Chinese attack makes aggression inevitable
Glaser 15 (Conflict in the South China Sea CSIS Bonnie S. Glaser is senior
advisor for Asia, Freeman chair in China studies, and senior associate, Pacific
Forum, at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. April 2015;
http://www.cfr.org/asia-and-pacific/conflict-south-china-sea/p36377 - LK)
China may have moderated some of its intimidation tactics for now, it continues to seek
Although
greater control over the sea and airspace in the South China Sea. Moreover,
various attempts to persuade China, along with the other claimants, to freeze
destabilizing behavior such as land reclamation have not succeeded. Beijing
continues to drag its feet on negotiating a binding code of conduct (CoC) with the Association of Southeast
Asian Nations (ASEAN) and has rejected Manila's attempt to resolve its territorial dispute through
arbitration under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Halting Chinese land
the United States can press China to be
reclamation activities may not be possible, but
transparent about its intentions and urge other nations to do the same. While
remaining neutral on sovereignty disputes, the United States should encourage all parties
to pursue their claims peacefully and in accordance with international law. The
United States should also press China to accept constraints on its behavior in a CoC and
dissuade China from taking actions that increase the risk of conflict . Several of
the recommendations in CFR's 2012 analysis of potential conflict in the South China Sea remain to be
implemented; in particular, the United States should ratify UNCLOS. In addition, the
United States should take the following steps: In the absence of progress between China and ASEAN on a
the United States should encourage
binding CoC to avert crises in the South China Sea,
ASEAN to develop its own draft CoC containing risk-reduction measures and a
dispute-resolution mechanism. The United States should then work with ASEAN to convince
Beijing to sign and implement it. The United States should continue to help the
Philippines and Vietnam enhance their maritime policing and security
capabilities, for example through better surveillance systems, so they can deter
and respond to China entering the water and airspace in their EEZs with
impunity. Similar assistance should be extended to Malaysia if requested.

Targeted sanctions are dont have international support

and the CP doesnt access UN procedural fairness means
it fails only shown to work multilaterally and on terrorist
organizations
Terlingon 10 (The United States and the UN's Targeted Sanctions of
Suspected Terrorists: What Role for Human Rights? Carnegie Council: Ethics
& International Affairs, Volume 24.2; Yvonne Terlingon is the head of Amnesty
International's United Nations Office in New York since 2001 and is one of the
foremost experts in UN human rights institutions while also being a member
of the Steering Committee of the 1 for 7 Billion; summer 2010,
https://www.carnegiecouncil.org/publications/journal/24_2/essays/002.html/:pf
_printable - LK)
Certainly, states are obliged to protect their citizens from terrorist acts, and few would question that
freezing assets and banning travel of suspected terrorists and their associates can help prevent terrorist
acts and may be an important counterterrorism tool. Moreover, as the High Commissioner for Human
Rights has recognized, ''the system of targeted sanctions represents an improvement over the former
system of comprehensive sanctions.''5 However, the targeted sanctions regime has
come under increasingly sharp criticismincluding in some countries
that are permanent members of the Security Council themselvesfor its lack
of transparency and the total absence of due process guarantees in the
''listing and de-listing'' procedure of suspected terrorists. Countries find themselves
torn by their obligation under Article 103 of the UN Charter to implement
binding Security Council resolutions, on the one hand, and their obligations to uphold equally
binding human rights treaties, on the other. The absence of such basic legal safeguards,
largely at the insistence of China, Russia, and the United States, and
acquiesced to by most other Security Council members , is all the more surprising in a
regime established by a principal organ of the United Nations, which is bound by its Charter to ''act in
the absence of procedural
conformity with the principles of justice and international law.'' Indeed,
fairness and the consequent implications for the authority of the UN as a
beacon of international law attracted the concern of then UN Secretary-General Kofi
Annan after world leaders, some from countries whose nationals appeared on UN sanctions lists, in 2005
formally urged the Security Council ''to ensure that fair and clear procedures exist for placing individuals
and entities on sanctions lists and for removing them as well as for granting humanitarian exemptions.''6
Incorporating basic legal safeguards in such a sanctions regime is essential not only from a human rights
perspective but also to ensure the system's effectiveness as an important counterterrorism tool .
Effectiveness depends, in part, on whether the measures are, and
are perceived to be, legitimate. Many countriesnotably in Europehave
become increasingly reluctant to propose new names to be added to the list.
So what are the problems with the ''listing'' procedure? Quite a few.
Space Debris- UN Database
CP
 1NC
Text: The UN should create a mandatory space object
database

UN database solves space miscalc-China would join

RT News 16, RT covers major issues of our time for viewers wanting to
Question More and delivers stories overlooked by the mainstream media to
create news with an edge. RT provides an alternative perspective on major
global events, and acquaints international audience with a Russian viewpoint.
RT is the winner of the 2013 Monte Carlo TV Festival Award for the best 24-
hour newscast. In 2010, RT became the first Russian TV channel to be
nominated for the prestigious International Emmy award in the News
category, June 26, Russia to reveal location of US military satellites in free
space database report < https://www.rt.com/news/347744-russia-satellites-
database-norad/>.
Russias own data on near-Earth objects including military satellites
not covered by the open catalog of the North-American warning system
NORAD could soon be made publicly available as a comprehensive
database, Russian media report. Russia is planning to set up a free database
on thousands of near-Earth objects, including those not publicly listed in open
catalogs of the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD),
Izvestia newspaper reported on Tuesday. NORAD doesnt only track Santa at
Christmas its database also provides details on thousands of satellites
launched, destroyed or still functioning. While the catalog does not disclose
data on Americas own military or dual-use satellites (or those of allies
Japan, France, Germany and Israel among them), as Izvestia says, it does
feature Russias defense satellites.At a Vienna meeting of the UN
Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space in mid-June, Russia
proposed to create a similar UN-run database collecting,
systemizing, sharing and analyzing information on objects and
events in outer space. Such an international database would be
available to any country that has capabilities in the areas of human
spaceflight, launches or satellites. Russias written proposal presented at
the meeting encouraged governments to share their own data banks on
scheduled and performed space launches as well as functioning space
objects and in-orbit operations. Russias proposal to create the UN-run
database reportedly encountered US resistance, with a diplomatic source
explaining to Izvestia: The Americans want to keep their monopoly on
regulating outer space traffic Plus, the US military is not keen on disclosing
information on a number of defense-related objects. Meanwhile, Russias
own space objects database will go online at any rate, as the country
already has enough telescopes, radars and observation stations to detect any
human-made body orbiting Earth, the report claimed. Our network spots
approximately 40 percent more [space] objects than you can find in open
American databases, Igor Molotov, senior research fellow of the Russian
Academy of Sciences, told the newspaper. We have several times more
telescopes than NORAD, he said, adding that Russian observation stations
are able of covering larger areas of space because of better weather
conditions. The databases would apparently help make orbit
operations more secure and hazard-free, but would also contribute
to shedding more light on the militarization of outer space, which
Moscow has opposed for many years. Russia and China have long been
advocates of weapons-free space, contributing to a number of important
international regulations in the UN and beyond.

US would join UN database

SI 16, Sputnik International is a major new media brand with modern
multimedia centers run by the Russian government, June 25, US Should
Welcome Russian Space Plan- Ex-Pentagon Analyst,
<http://sputniknews.com/politics/20160625/1041932175/russian-space-data-
plan.html>.
Russia will publicly release its own database of Earth orbiting satellites, Viktor
Shilin, head of the Russian delegation at the 59th session of the UN
Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space, told the Russian
newspaper Izvestia. The Russian proposal is also in accord with the
Open Skies policy that US administrations have pursued since
President Dwight D. Eisenhower proposed it at his 1955 summit in Geneva
with Soviet Premier Nikolai Bulganin, Spinney noted. The Treaty on Open
Skies was signed in 1992, entered into force on January 1, 2002 and
currently includes 34 state parties. The treaty establishes a program of
unarmed aerial surveillance flights over the entire territory of its
participants. The United States and Russia are both signatories. In addition
to tracking non-military satellites and space debris, the Russian catalog will
include data which the United States Space Command does not make public.
However, the Russian proposal would only reveal to the American public and
populations around the world what the US, Russian and Chinese governments
already know, Spinney pointed out. The Russian proposal would improve
transparency and trust between Moscow and Washington, but it would
also reveal to the US public the extent of their own military surveillance
system across the world, Spinney observed.
2NC
 Overview
The CP solves for space miscalc--A UN satellite database
for members with satellite capability would provide
transparency for all space orbiting objects and prevent
and alert of satellites and known debris.
There are several net benefits to the CP. The first is the
external (insert country) DA. By forgoing direct
engagement with China, tensions do not trigger the DA.
The second US international credibilityby publicly
adhering to the Open Skies Treaty of 1992, designed to
have increased transparency in the skies. The third is
overall coverageby including all nations with satellite
capability, the CP would have a far more comprehensive
reach than the plan.
 CP Solves Better
Database key for space safety-would catalog satellites
and known debrismore than just China
Mizokami 16, Kyle, Kyle Mizokami writes on defense and security issues in
Asia, particularly Japan. He is the founder and editor for the blogs Japan
Security Watch and Asia Security Watch. Contributor at The Daily Beast, The
Atlantic.com, Salon, The Japan Times and The Diplomat, June 27, Russia Will
Tell the World Where U.S. Military Satellites Are
<http://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/news/a21546/russia-
planning-to-expose-us-military-satellites/> .
According to Russian state news agency Izvestia, the Russian delegation to
the UN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space has proposed a
United Nations database on space objects. The data would be donated
by Russia as a "public service" and catalog all known satellites and
"space debris", which ranges from tools lost by astronauts to retired
satellites. The database would be similar to the one currently curated by the
North American Aerospace Defense Command. NORAD's database is
generally considered the authority on space objects, but leaves out American,
French, German, Israeli, Japanese and other allied military satellites. It
includes Russian satellites. While exposing U.S. military satellites isn't
unusualprivate citizens discovered the latest U.S. spy satellite within a
matter of days with little more than a camera taking long exposuresthis
might be the first time a foreign government has done so. China has
publicly supported the Russian initiative. Russia claims their global
network of observatories in 31 countries results in a database with 40 percent
more objects that the NORAD database. The database could inform
relevant parties of potentially dangerous events such as collisions. In
other words, it's for safety!
 US Hypocrisy Now
Anger growing surrounding US hypocrisy of Open Skies
RT News 14, RT covers major issues of our time for viewers wanting to
Question More and delivers stories overlooked by the mainstream media to
create news with an edge. RT provides an alternative perspective on major
global events, and acquaints international audience with a Russian viewpoint.
RT is the winner of the 2013 Monte Carlo TV Festival Award for the best 24-
hour newscast. In 2010, RT became the first Russian TV channel to be
nominated for the prestigious International Emmy award in the News
category, August 2,Lies, hypocrisy, propaganda: Russia slams US over
claims of nuclear treaty violations, <https://www.rt.com/news/177464-
russia-nuclear-treaty-us-claims/>.
Washington initiated the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), but
it is the United States who has not yet ratified this important
agreement, Russias statement says, adding that American nuclear
laboratories seem to be actively lobbying for maintaining US nuclear test
sites in the state of preparedness for new full-scale nuclear explosions.
Russia also resented insinuations about possible non-compliance with
the terms of the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC) and the
Chemical Weapons Convention, where Washington has chided Moscow of
engaging in dual-use biological activities and providing incomplete data
about such facilities operations. They obviously bet on the ignorance of
the general public about the fact that the United States has the highest in
the world number (up to 5,000) of biosafety level 3 laboratories (BSL-3), of
which, according to the US Government Accountability Office, at least 1,356
had a license for work with selected (highly dangerous) pathogenic agents.
All of those facilities are dual-use, while selected pathogens are directly
relevant to the BTWC, Moscow said. Almost one-third of the US report was
devoted to the America claims to the implementation by other states of
multilateral agreements, including the Open Sky Treaty. The report's
authors are tripping over themselves to "prove" that Russia has
somehow created obstacles to the implementation of the Treaty,
Moscow says, adding that most of the issues presented, of purely technical
nature, were long ago referred to. The ministry however still rebuffed a
couple of further examples, to demonstrate how the facts are distorted in
the US report. Finishing off its litany of complaints Russian Foreign Ministrys
document wholly rejects all US objections to Russias commitment to
international treaties. The US report is a catalogue of cooked-up quibbles
about others, without a single attempt to look at their own reflection
in the mirror.
 Would Bring Cred
Open access for all key to safety and brings international
cred to members
Palmer 16, Coburn, An experienced news man, Coburn Palmer has written
national, state and local news for eight different news outlets including the
USA Today and SF Weekly. A graduate from the San Francisco State University
school of Journalism he has experience covering government, crime and
neighborhood beats. Coburn has been a leader of award winning newsrooms
and has also won several personal awards for outstanding articles, June
26,Russia and China Sign Alliance to Threaten US Supremacy, Target Military
Satellites, <http://www.inquisitr.com/3247550/russia-and-china-sign-space-
alliance-to-threaten-u-s-supremacy-targets-military-satellites/>.
This political stance helped push China and Russia into a space alliance
designed to protect their interstellar rights, promote cooperation in peaceful
space exploration, and further the development of interstellar vehicles,
according to Sputnik News. The Russian and Chinese governments
have signed an agreement on measures to protect technologies in
connection to cooperation on peaceful space exploration and usage
as well as creation and exploitation of launch vehicles and land-based space
infrastructure. Russia is attempting to expand its influence with the
international community in space affairs and originally intended its catalog
of near-Earth objects to be part of a UN database. The Union of
Concerned Scientists estimates there are some 1,380 satellites and
500,000 pieces of space junk orbiting Earth, and Russia insists its
comprehensive catalogue would increase safety, according to the
DailyMail. The Russian Federation proceeds to establish a national
information service, whose function shall be to provide open access to the
results of monitoring objects and events in outer space. Retired U.S.
Defense Department analyst Franklin Spinney said America should
welcome cooperation with Russia in space affairs, according to Sputnik News.
My gut reaction is that the Russian move should (but probably will not) be
viewed as a constructive move. Russias intention to publicize the
location of U.S. military satellites is also in line with the Open Skies
Treaty signed in 1992 that includes 34 other countries and was designed
to regulate unarmed aerial surveillance flights.
 AT: US Wont Join
Every aff card saying that US engages with China and that
China wants it shows US will too. Outside nations wont
bother them because its not open to entire public, just
UN members that have satellites. Additionally,
international cred outweighsopen skies treaty
compliance would vastly increase nuclear trust (see US
hypocrisy now)
 Aff Answers
UN database could increase terrorismAmericans wont
risk it
Mizokami 16, Kyle, Kyle Mizokami writes on defense and security issues in
Asia, particularly Japan. He is the founder and editor for the blogs Japan
Security Watch and Asia Security Watch. Contributor at The Daily Beast, The
Atlantic.com, Salon, The Japan Times and The Diplomat, June 27, Russia Will
Tell the World Where U.S. Military Satellites Are
<http://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/news/a21546/russia-
planning-to-expose-us-military-satellites/>.
The tracks of mostif not allAmerican spy satellites are known to major
governments, but countries with limited means, such as North Korea,
are less informed about them. Terrorist groups such as the Islamic
State, if they know anything, have to rely on incomplete public
databases. Knowing a spy satellite's predicted path makes it
possible to hide things from prying eyes above. Airplanes, particularly
secret ones, can be stored inside hangars, steam-producing power plants can
be turned off, vehicles can be covered with camouflage netting, and so on.
Izvestia claims Moscow reached out to Washington to create a single,
comprehensive database, but that the Americans "wanted to preserve
their monopoly." That makes little sense considering if the Russian
database really did contain 40 percent more objects it would almost certainly
become the dominant database.

US wont joinwant to leave citizens in dark about

surveillance practices
Palmer 16, Coburn, An experienced news man, Coburn Palmer has written
national, state and local news for eight different news outlets including the
USA Today and SF Weekly. A graduate from the San Francisco State University
school of Journalism he has experience covering government, crime and
neighborhood beats. Coburn has been a leader of award winning newsrooms
and has also won several personal awards for outstanding articles, June 26,
Russia and China Sign Alliance to Threaten US Supremacy, Target Military
Satellites, <http://www.inquisitr.com/3247550/russia-and-china-sign-space-
alliance-to-threaten-u-s-supremacy-targets-military-satellites/>.
It would be similar to the list maintained by the North American Aerospace
Defense Command (NORAD). China, Russia and many other countries
already know the location of U.S. military satellites so the only
people left in the dark are everyday citizens of the Earth who may be
unaware of the extent of Americas surveillance capability, reports Sputnik
News. The real threatwould be that the American people should be
amazed by the shear scope of our presence, compared to that of the
Russians and Chinese. One thing is sure, the space race is heating up

US wont joinrestrictions on space miscalc outside of

China invite unwanted outsiders in info
Bodner 15, Matthew, Foreign Affairs, Defense and Space Correspondent at
The Moscow Times / Defense News Moscow Correspondent with a degree
from Miami University, December 9, UN Adopts Russian Initiative Restricting
Space Weapons,<http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/air-
space/space/2015/12/09/un-adopts-russian-initiative-restricting-space-
weapons/77031986/>.
The United Nations General Assembly has adopted a Russian-led resolution
calling for a nonbinding restriction against the first placement of
weapons in outer space, a measure that has been strongly criticized
by the US for not going far enough. Russia has been promoting the
resolution for several years but failed to push the draft through a UN
committee focusing on disarmament issues. The US has been at the
forefront of the effort against the Russian resolution, which is backed
by Moscow-friendly nations like China and Syria. It is noteworthy that the
only government objecting to the substance of our initiative is the
United States, which for many years has stood in almost complete isolation
trying to block successive efforts of the international community to
prevent an arms race in outer space, the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a
statement posted on its website Tuesday.

Turn: US not joining would further fuel tensions and

anger, increasing the risk and probability of aff impacts
Solar Flare-Shut Down the
Grid
 1NC
Plan: The United States Federal Government should use
regular detection procedure and temporarily shut off the
grid in the event of a predicted solar flare of detrimental
magnitude.
Shutting down the grid is already possible and detection
can occur 20 hours before an impact
Lovett 12quoting Tom Bogdan, Ph.D. in Physics from UChicago, Director of
the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations Space Environment
Center AND Rodney Viereck, Leader of the Data and Instrumentation
Group Research Division NOAA Space Environment Center, March 8 (Richard, National
Geographic News, March 8, 2012, http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2012/03/120308-solar-flare-storm-sun-space-weather-science-
aurora/, ZBurdette)

Even now, the center's Bogdan said, the most damaging emissions from big
storms travel slowly enough to be detected by sun-watching satellites well
before the particles strike Earth. "That gives us [about] 20 hours to determine
what actions we need to take," Viereck said. (Related pictures: "Multicolored
Auroras Sparked by Double Sun Blast" [August 2011].) In a pinch, power
companies could protect valuable transformers by taking them offline before
the storm strikes. That would produce local blackouts, but they wouldn't last
for long. "The good news is that these storms tend to pass after a couple of
hours," Bogdan added. Meanwhile, scientists are scrambling to learn
everything they can about the sun in an effort to produce even longer-range
forecasts.

Microgrids can repower during downtime

Pierce 14 Erin Pierce U.S. Department of Energy Former Digital
Communications Specialist, Office of Public Affairs, "Top 9 Things You Didn't
Know About America's Power Grid," Nov 20, http://energy.gov/articles/top-9-
things-you-didnt-know-about-americas-power-
gridhttp://www.ecowatch.com/renewables-to-overtake-coal-as-worlds-largest-
power-source-says-iea-1882118437.html Audka
Microgrids, which are localized grids that are normally connected to the more
traditional electric grid but can disconnect to operate autonomously , are another
way in which the reliability and resiliency of the grid can be improved. Microgrids use advanced smart grid
technologies and the integration of distributed energy resources such as
backup generators, solar panels and storage. Because they can operate
independently of the grid during outages, microgrids are typically used to
provide reliable power during extreme weather events . As part of the Obama
Administrations commitment to rebuild communities affected by Superstorm Sandy, the Department is partnering with
microgrids to help keep the
the State of New Jersey and other organizations to examine the use of
power on during future extreme weather events.
 2NC Overview
Temporary grid shutdown solves 100% of the impact
detention of solar flares is possible 20 hours before a
strike and operators can temporarily shut down the grid
in a pinch thats Lovett, and Microgrids can repower
during downtime thats Peirce. Solves the [Insert DA]
because it requires no engagement with China which
triggers the DA.
 Solvency
Temporary shutdown reduces CO2 emissions and reaps
economic benefits
Fesmire 07 Bob Fesmire is a Strategic Communications Manager at ABB
with over fourteen years of experience in the energy industry, "Energy
Efficiency in the Power Grid," July 9,
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2007/07/energy-efficiency-in-
the-power-grid-49238.html AudKa
using less energy means paying
The "business case" for energy efficiency is fairly straightforward:
less for energy. But a simple cost-benefit analysis might overlook some very
important benefits that efficiency brings. At this point, there is little doubt that regulation of
carbon dioxide is coming, with the power sector as a primary target. While there are technologies both available and in
easiest ton of CO2 to
development to mitigate CO2 emissions from power plants, the fact remains that the
remove from the atmosphere is the one that is not emitted in the first place .
Greater energy efficiency in the T&D system means lower emissions in generation to deliver the same amount of
consumed energy. Greater efficiency also has a direct impact on the role of renewables,
specifically in terms of the percentage of the total fuel mix they account for .
Lowering the amount of energy consumed (or lost) effectively increases the
share of renewables in the total, assuming the gains are offset by reducing the amount of energy
produced from traditional generation sources. Fuel conservation and diversity is another
strong selling point for efficiency, and here the benefits extend well beyond economic and even
environmental considerations. Reducing US dependence on foreign fuel suppliesbe
they oil, natural gas or even coalpays obvious dividends from a security standpoint, and the less we
use, the less we have to buy. Finally, within the context of the power system itself, it's important to recognize how
interrelated energy efficiency is with grid reliability. In many areas of the US, transmission constraints have reached the
point where they not only cost consumers billions of dollars in congestion charges, they threaten the integrity of the
power system itself. Over the past twenty years, the situation has continued to deteriorate to the point where now the
question of installing a new line is nearly moot in some locations. By the time it was completed, demand would long since
have outstripped the ability of the local grid to meet it, so a short-term solution must be implemented in the interim.
vital to the integration of renewables like wind and
Improving transmission capacity is also
solar which are often located far from the loads they must serve . For that reason,
the cause of efficiency in the T&D system is in perfect alignment with that of
expanding renewable generation. As renewable energy technologies continue
to grow in importance, the potential impact of energy efficiency cannot be
overstated. With the array of technologies and methodologies now available, efficiency stands ready to play a much
larger role in the energy equation.

Grid tech becoming increasingly better in the US alone

solar flares wont touch em
(CP is a temporary solution while we independently develop tech capable of
adaptation)

DOE 15 US Department of Energy is a Cabinet-level department of the

United States Government concerned with the United States' policies
regarding energy and safety in handling nuclear material, "Smart Grid," Sept
17, http://energy.gov/oe/services/technology-development/smart-grid AudKa
Smart grid generally refers to a class of technology people are using to
bring utility electricity delivery systems into the 21st century, using
computer-based remote control and automation. These systems are made possible by two-way
communication technology and computer processing that has been used for decades in other industries. They are beginning to be used on

electricity networks, from the power plants and wind farms all the way to the consumers of electricity in homes and businesses. They
offer many benefits to utilities and consumers -- mostly seen in big
improvements in energy efficiency on the electricity grid and in the energy
users homes and offices. For a century, utility companies have had to send workers out to gather much of the data
needed to provide electricity. The workers read meters, look for broken equipment and measure voltage, for example. Most of the devices

utilities use to deliver electricity have yet to be automated and computerized. Now, many options and products
are being made available to the electricity industry to modernize it. The
grid amounts to the networks that carry electricity from the plants where it
is generated to consumers. The grid includes wires, substations,
transformers, switches and much more. Much in the way that a smart phone these days means a phone
with a computer in it, smart grid means computerizing the electric utility grid. It includes adding two-way digital

communication technology to devices associated with the grid. Each device

on the network can be given sensors to gather data (power meters, voltage
sensors, fault detectors, etc.), plus two-way digital communication between the device in the field and the utilitys
network operations center. A key feature of the smart grid is automation technology that

lets the utility adjust and control each individual device or millions of devices
from a central location. The number of applications that can be used on the smart grid once the data communications
technology is deployed is growing as fast as inventive companies can create and produce them . Benefits include

enhanced cyber-security, handling sources of electricity like wind and solar

power and even integrating electric vehicles onto the grid. The companies
making smart grid technology or offering such services include technology
giants, established communication firms and even brand new technology firms.

Grid collapse happens when the grid is left running during

a solar flare Britain proves shutting off solves 12 hour
timeframe
Gray 15 (Are YOU prepared for a major solar storm? World will have just 12
hours warning if the sun erupts Daily Mail UK, Richard Gray is the first
iphoneography teacher in England and probably all over Europe, and recently
featured in major newspapers and on-line medias like BBC, Daily Mail or The
Sun; July 30, 2015, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-
3178801/Are-prepared-major-solar-storm-World-just-12-hours-warning-sun-
erupts.html )
The report warns that GPS systems could go down for up to three days at a
time, leaving train networks and shipping badly affected. While mobile phones and
landlines are expected to be unaffected, satellite communication and high frequency
radio communication used by shipping and aircraft, could also go down for
several days. Power grids could also be effected, leading to black outs in
some areas. The document warns that the most harmful element of severe space weather is a major
coronal mass ejection, where huge eruptions blast high energy particles out into space. Like a never-
ending rain shower, cosmic rays pour down on Earth everyday. These high-energy particles, triggered by
thesolar flares, make their presence felt when they create the northern lights or
disrupt power grids. Over the years, a number of studies have argued that, at high doses, these
rays can permanently damage human DNA, causing birth defects. Now, a Nasa-funded study has found
It also warns that major solar
radiation from solar events is too weak to damage cells on Earth.
flares caused by a build-up of magnetic energy that releases blasts of
radiation across the solar system, can also pose a risk . The report states: 'Space
weather results from solar activity. Solar activity can produce X-rays, high energy
particles and Coronal Mass Ejections of plasma. 'Where such activity is
directed towards Earth there is the potential to cause wide-ranging impacts.
'These include power loss, aviation disruption, communication loss , and
disturbance to (or loss) of satellite systems.' While there is a steady stream of particles
buffeting the planets of the solar system from the sun known as the solar wind flares and eruptions
send intense blasts of radiation and particles. These vary in frequency with the activity of the sun and
often blast off in directions far away from the Earth. However, severe solar events are thought to threaten
the Earth every 100 years or so. The last major coronal mass ejection to hit the Earth, known as the
Carrington event, was a powerful geomagnetic solar storm in 1859 and is thought to have been the
biggest in 500 years. At the time technology was still relatively underdeveloped ,
although Telegraph systems all over the world failed and pylons threw
sparks. A large solar flare in March this year knocked out radio transmissions
in some parts of the world. The UK government's Space Weather Preparedness Strategy said on
that occasion it took the blast of energy and particles 18 hours to reach the
Earth. But it added: 'It is therefore likely that our reasonable worst case scenario
would only allow us 12 hours from observation to impact. ' The strategy
warns that while the UK power network would likely be able to cope with a major
space weather event, other countries are less well prepared. It said: 'The GB
Power Grid is likely to be more resilient than that of some other countries to
the effects of severe space weather for a range of reasons: shorter power
lines, a mesh like grid system with the ability to close sections and route
power around them and, a more reliant design for new and replacement
transformers.' 'Nonetheless, for the GB grid, our relatively high latitude, long coast line and geology
are factors that increase risk.' The report also warns that Britain's supergrid
transformers have been damaged in the past and could be vulnerable to a
major space weather event. It said voltage instability could also lead to local
blackouts that could last several hours. This would mean householders should ensure
they have candles and emergency lighting to cope for that amount of
time. It recommends preparing for a solar storm in much the same way as
other natural disasters such as flooding or major storms. The report warned far
greater impacts will be felt due to the loss of signal from GPS satellites caused by a solar storm, which
could last for around three days. It said oil drilling relies heavily on GPS for accuracy and could result in a
fall in oil production for the days after the storm. This could lead to short term impacts on fuel for
Drivers should also carry maps to help them navigate while the GPS
motorists.
network is down. However mobile phone networks and landline services are unlikely to be affected,
meaning these can still be used. High frequency communication networks used by aircraft and shipping
would go down for several days, which together with the loss of GPS could mean shipping is suspended.
Trains also rely upon GPS systems and so may not be able to run for up to three days after the storm hits.
The report said: 'Global Positioning System satellites are hardened to the effects of space weather so are
protected against the direct impacts. 'However, the connection with the satellites might be lost for up to
three days. The impact of its loss or the effectiveness of mitigation - is not yet fully
understood.' The report also says that a solar storm would also increase the exposure of airline
passengers to radiation, but says the risk to health would be 'minimal'. It says passengers will not need to
seek medical advice. The report suggests Britain needs to improve its alerts and warning systems for
It also says
solar storms. The Met Office recently launched a Space Weather forecasting service.
power and communication infrastructure should be updated to
include backups. Companies and emergency services are urged to have plans in place to deal
with the impacts too.
 Impact D to Solar Flares
Solar flares are extremely rare, especially one with any
impact no probability or magnitude
Odenwald 15 (Dr. Sten Odenwald is a NASA Astronomer, also works at ADNET/Catholic
University, The Day the Sun Brought Darkness NASA, July 31, 2015,
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/sun_darkness.html - LK)

Twenty years later, the March 1989 'Quebec Blackout' has reached legendary stature, at least among
electrical engineers and space scientists. It is a dramatic example of how solar storms can affect us even
storms as powerful as this are rather rare. It
here on the ground. Fortunately,
takes quite a solar wallop to cause anything like the conditions leading up to
a Quebec-style blackout. Typical solar activity 'sunspot' cycles can produce least
two or three large storms, so it really is just a matter of chance whether
one will cause a blackout or not. As it is for hurricanes and tornadoes, the more we can learn
about the sun's 'space weather,' the better we can prepare for the next storm when it arrives.

No extinction - Long time gap for solar flare warning, grid

hits in past had no impact, similar to effect of a storm on
Earth, we already had our large solar flare for these 100
years, many services stay protected and rest is short term
Gray 15 (Are YOU prepared for a major solar storm? World will have just 12
hours warning if the sun erupts Daily Mail UK, Richard Gray is the first
iphoneography teacher in England and probably all over Europe, and recently
featured in major newspapers and on-line medias like BBC, Daily Mail or The
Sun; July 30, 2015, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-
3178801/Are-prepared-major-solar-storm-World-just-12-hours-warning-sun-
erupts.html - LK)
While there is a steady stream of particles buffeting the planets of the solar
system from the sun known as the solar wind flares and eruptions send intense blasts of radiation and particles. These
vary in frequency with the activity of the sun and often blast off in directions far away from the Earth. However, severe solar

events are thought to threaten the Earth every 100 years or so. The last
major coronal mass ejection to hit the Earth, known as the Carrington event,
was a powerful geomagnetic solar storm in 1859 and is thought to have been
the biggest in 500 years. At the time technology was still relatively underdeveloped, although Telegraph systems all over
the world failed and pylons threw sparks. A large solar flare in March this year knocked out radio

transmissions in some parts of the world. The UK government's Space Weather Preparedness Strategy
said on that occasion it took the blast of energy and particles 18 hours to reach the

Earth. But it added: 'It is therefore likely that our reasonable worst case scenario would only allow
us 12 hours from observation to impact .' The strategy warns that while the UK power
network would likely be able to cope with a major space weather
event, other countries are less well prepared. It said: 'The GB Power Grid is likely to be more
resilient than that of some other countries to the effects of severe space weather for a range of reasons: shorter power lines, a mesh
like grid system with the ability to close sections and route power around them and, a more reliant design for new and replacement
transformers.' 'Nonetheless, for the GB grid, our relatively high latitude, long coast line and geology are factors that increase risk.' The

report also warns that Britain's supergrid transformers have been damaged in the past
blackouts that could
and could be vulnerable to a major space weather event. It said voltage instability could also lead to local
last several hours. This would mean householders should ensure they have candles and
emergency lighting to cope for that amount of time . It recommends preparing for a solar
storm in much the same way as other natural disasters such as flooding or
major storms. The report warned far greater impacts will be felt due to the loss of signal from GPS
satellites caused by a solar storm, which could last for around three days. It said oil
drilling relies heavily on GPS for accuracy and could result in a fall in oil production for the days after the storm. This could lead

to short term impacts on fuel for motorists . Drivers should also carry maps to
help them navigate while the GPS network is down. However mobile phone networks and

landline services are unlikely to be affected, meaning these can still

be used. High frequency communication networks used by aircraft and shipping would go down for several days, which together
with the loss of GPS could mean shipping is suspended. Trains also rely upon GPS systems and so may not be able to run for up to three days

'Global Positioning System [GPS] satellites are hardened

after the storm hits. The report said:

to the effects of space weather so are protected against the direct impacts.
'However, the connection with the satellites might be lost for up to three days. The impact of its loss or the effectiveness of mitigation - is not

a solar storm would also increase the exposure of

yet fully understood.' The report also says that

airline passengers to radiation, but says the risk to health would be

'minimal'. It says passengers will not need to seek medical advice. The report suggests
Britain needs to improve its alerts and warning systems for solar storms. The Met Office recently launched a Space Weather forecasting

Companies and
service. It also says power and communication infrastructure should be updated to include backups.

emergency services are urged to have plans in place to deal with the impacts too.
 Aff Answers
Turning off the grid cant solve
A) Satellites
Odenwald 15 (Dr. Sten Odenwald is a NASA Astronomer, also works at ADNET/Catholic
University, The Day the Sun Brought Darkness NASA, July 31, 2015, lk
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/sun_darkness.html)

In space, some satellites actually tumbled out of control for several hours.
NASA's TDRS-1 communication satellite recorded over 250 anomalies as high-energy
particles invaded the satellite's sensitive electronics. Even the Space
Shuttle Discovery was having its own mysterious problems . A sensor on one of the
tanks supplying hydrogen to a fuel cell was showing unusually high pressure readings on March 13. The
problem went away just as mysteriously after the solar storm subsided.

B) Radio communication
Gray 15 (Are YOU prepared for a major solar storm? World will have just 12 hours warning if the sun
erupts Daily Mail UK, Richard Gray is the first iphoneography teacher in England and probably all over
Europe, and recently featured in major newspapers and on-line medias like BBC, Daily Mail or The Sun; July
30, 2015, LK http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3178801/Are-prepared-major-solar-storm-
World-just-12-hours-warning-sun-erupts.html)

The report warns that GPS systems could go down for up to three days at a
time, leaving train networks and shipping badly affected . While mobile phones and
landlines are expected to be unaffected, satellite communication and high frequency
radio communication used by shipping and aircraft, could also go down for
several days.

Turn - Grid shutdown kills agriculture systems

Eccleston 11
Chief Consultant for the Environmental Planning and NEPA Services Corporation and Stuyvenberg,
Environmental Project Manager, US Nuclear Regulatory Comission, 2011 (Charles and Andrew,
Environmental Quality Management, The Perfect Electrical Storm? Volume 20, Issue 3, Article first
published online: 14 MAR 2011, DOI 10.1002/tqem / Spring 2011 / 43 Published online in Wiley Online
Library (wileyonlinelibrary.com) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/tqem.20288/pdf , accessed 7-2-
11, ASR)

power outages would ripple across the infrastructure, with

According to Kappenman,
water distribution affected within several hours; perishable foods and
medications lost in about 1224 hours; and immediate or eventual loss of
heating/ air conditioning, sewage disposal, phone service, transportation, fuel
re-supply and so on.13 Recovering from such damage could take years.
Imagine losing electricity for a year or more: no water, no lights, no phone or
cellular service, no electric heating in frigid winters, no modern
communication devices (such as computers). Some people might say, Ill simply load up
my SUV with supplies and head for a safer location. In that case, theyd better have the SUV fueled to the
No power means no
brim. Remember that gasoline is stored underground in service station tanks.
operational gasoline pumps. Could you simply start walking to the grocery store, and perhaps
get the side benefit of some exercise? Unfortunately not. No power means no fuel, no farm
equipment, and no modern agricultural system. Even if farmers could still
grow enough food to feed more than their immediate families, lack of power
would mean no fuel processing, no fuel for distribution trucksand thus no
food on the shelves of local markets. We wouldnt even be able to flush the
toilet. Why? Because with no electricity, there would be no water pumped into houses. In short , loss of
electrical power on the scale modeled by Kappenman would lead to a
fullfledged national emergencyperhaps equal in impact to a nuclear war or
a massive asteroid collision. The only people who might escape unscathed
from such an event are those few who do not rely on modern technology,
such as Amish communities. And even they might not escape incursions from
their newly deprived neighbors.

Turn - Short blackouts add up to huge economic deficits

Allianz 12 electric energy and natural gas Energy Risks - the dangers of power cuts and
blackouts Allianz, 2012, http://www.agcs.allianz.com/insights/expert-risk-articles/energy-risks/- AudKa)

While the majority of power failures from national grids last only a few hours , some
blackouts can last days or even weeks, completely shutting down production at companies and critical infrastructures
such as telecommunication networks, financial services, water supplies and hospitals. Furthermore, it is likely that power
blackouts will become more frequent owing to the lack of incentives to invest in aged national grid infrastructures in
Europe and the US, as well as the fact that energy from decentralized, volatile renewable sources is not well aligned to
as more and more grids are
work on electricity grids that were designed 50 or 60 years ago. Also,
interconnected, a blackout in one region can trigger a domino effect that
could result in supra-regional blackouts . Heightened risk from terrorism, cyber
attacks and solar flares also highlights how vulnerable the worlds energy
grids are to systemic failure. Research shows that the financial impacts of even a small
power cut can be catastrophic. Analyses from blackout events in the US show that a 30-minute
power cut results in an average loss of US$15,709 for medium and large
industrial clients, and nearly US$94,000 for an eight-hour interruption. Even
short blackouts which occur several times a year in the US add up to an
annual estimated economic loss of between US$104 and US$164 billion.
Trade Wars- Stable Exchange
Rates CP
 1NC
Text: The United States Federal Government should
establish a system of stable exchange rates with the
nations of the G-20 to prevent currency and trade wars
LEWIS E. LEHRMAN and JOHN D. MUELLER 4/19/16, Lewis Lehrman is an
American investment banker, businessman, Republican politician, economist,
and historian, He was presented the National Humanities Medal, He was a
member of the Advisory Committee of the Abraham Lincoln Bicentennial
Commission and the Lincoln Forum. In addition to co-authoring Money and
the Coming World Order and The Case for Gold, Lehrman's has written Lincoln
at Peoria: The Turning Point, The True Gold Standard, Newly Revised and
Enlarged, Second Edition, Money, Gold, and History and Lincoln "by littles,
John D. Mueller is the Lehrman Institute Fellow in Economics and Director of
the Economics and Ethics Program at the Ethics and Public Policy Center. Mr.
Mueller specializes in the relation of modern economic theory to its Judeo-
Christian and Greco-Roman origins, its practical application to personal,
family, and political economy, and the interaction of economics, philosophical
worldviews, and religious faith. Mr. Mueller retired in January 2015 as
president of LBMC LLC, a firm in Washington, D.C. specializing in economic
and financial-market forecasting and economic policy analysis. He has more
than 35 years experience in those fields, Monetary Reform or Trade War,
http://www.wsj.com/articles/monetary-reform-or-trade-war-1461104951
The solution is to establish a level trade playing field with a system of
stable exchange rates among the nations of the G-20, or at least the G-
7, to which emerging countries will conform. Such a solution would require
the next president to bring together the major world leaders to establish
stable exchange rates to avoid trade and currency wars that inevitably lead
to protectionism and sometimes to real wars. This international monetary
solution of stable exchange rates would eliminate the burden and privilege of
the dollars reserve-currency role. Neither tax, nor regulatory, nor budget
reforms, however desirable, will eliminate currency wars. To restore Americas
competitive position in production, manufacturing and world trade, stable
exchange rates are the only solution tested in the laboratory of U.S. history
from President Washington in 1789 until 1971. Stable exchange rates have
proven throughout history to establish the most reliable level playing field for
free and fair world trade. There are no perfect solutions in human affairs. But
the history of the past three centuries suggests that stable exchange rates ,
resulting from adoption of currencies mutually convertible to gold at
statutory fixed parities, are the least imperfect solution to avoid
currency and trade wars.
 O/V
The CP has the US establish an international system of
stable exchange rates. This will prevent currency
devaluation, trade wars, and will make the economy more
secure.
A common exchange system will prevent fluctuations and
will be beneficial for the world economy, prefer our highly
qualified and successful economist
James Tobin july/October 1978, James Tobin was an American economist who
served on the Council of Economic Advisers and the Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System, and taught at Harvard and Yale Universities. He
developed the ideas of Keynesian economics, and advocated government
intervention to stabilize output and avoid recessions, A Proposal for
Monetary Reform, https://www.globalpolicy.org/social-and-economic-
policy/global-taxes-1-79/currency-transaction-taxes/45989-a-proposal-for-
monetary-reform.html
But first let us pay our respects to the "one world" ideal. Within the United
States, of course, capital is extremely mobile between regions, and has been
for a long time. Its mobility has served, continues to serve, important
economic functions: mobilizing funds from high-saving areas to finance
investments that develop areas with high marginal productivities of capital;
financing trade deficits which arise from regional shifts in population and
comparative advantage or from transient economic or natural shocks. With
nationwide product and labor markets, goods and labor also flow readily to
areas of high demand, and this mobility is the essential solution to the
problems of regional depression and obsolescence that inevitably occur.
There is neither need for, nor possibility of, regional macroeconomic policies.
It would not be possible to improve employment in West Virginia or reduce
inflation in California. Even temporarily, by changing the parity of a local
dollar with dollars of other Federal Reserve Districts. With a common
currency, national financial and capital markets, and a single
national monetary policy, movements of funds to exploit interest
arbitrage or to speculate on exchange rate fluctuations cannot be
sources of disturbances and painful interregional adjustments.

The CP is the only tested solution to work, thats Lehrman

and Mueller
Chinese economists and government officials would be
onboard with the CP, proves that the CP solves for Trade-
wars
Bejeing Review 27/3/9, A Chinese newspaper, Reform International Monetary
System Faster, http://www.bjreview.com.cn/G20_Summit/2009-
03/27/content_188158.htm
Xie's comments came two days after Zhou Xiaochuan, the central bank
governor, said that it was necessary to displace the US dollar with a super-
sovereign reserve currency. Zhou also said the Special Drawing Rights, a
currency basket of the dollar, the euro, the British pound and the yen, had
the potential to become an international reserve currency. It was unclear if
Zhou's comments also represented those of the government's. Zhou's idea
echoed rising concerns over the instability of the US dollar, as the US
government's massive stimulus package was likely to inject significant
liquidity into the system, thereby deepening the risk of inflation. That could
also lead to a depreciation of the greenback, which would mean losses for
China's $1.95-trillion foreign exchange reserves.
 AT: Dollar Key
The dollar is unsustainable, and its collapse is inevitable,
prefer our specific scenario
JERRY ROBINSON 5/18/11, economist, investor, and best-selling author, The
Future of Oil and the End of the Dollar,
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/jerry-robinson/the-future-of-oil-
and-the-end-of-the-dollar
Because Americas fiat monetary system is debt-based, it requires perpetual
growth. The petrodollar system creates a constant source of global demand.
Therefore, without this constant and growing global demand for the U.S.
dollar, Americas debt-based financial system will break down. Without the
constant global dollar demand created by the petrodollar system, foreign
central banks would lose virtually every reason to view the U.S. dollar as a
safe haven. Consequently, dollars held by global central banks, which
currently runs in the trillions, could come flooding back to Americas shores
causing massive inflation. In an effort to control the rampant inflation created
by this flood of dollars, the Federal Reserve would be forced to sop up the
excess liquidity by drastically increasing interest rates quite possibly to
double digits. Higher interest rates would destroy the fragile U.S. economy,
perpetuate the ongoing housing crisis, and bring U.S. consumption to a
standstill. In the end, the U.S. dollar would lose its position as the key reserve
currency which would bring our debt-based monetary system to a final day of
reckoning.
 AFF
The dollar cant be replaced, its the most stable currency
and key to the world economy
Michael Ivanovitch 4/4/16, Dr. Michael Ivanovitch is an independent analyst
focusing on world economy, geopolitics and investment strategy. He served
as a senior economist at the OECD in Paris, international economist at the
Federal Reserve Bank of New York and taught economics at Columbia
Business School, This is why dollar alternatives are non-starters,
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/04/this-is-why-dollar-alternatives-are-non-
starters.html
Still, all this noise about the SDR has a serious message for Washington: The
world economy cannot function without a truly global currency, because
savers and investors need a stable unit of account, a widely accepted means
of payment and a reliable store of value. That's what the SDR can't match,
and won't be able to match anytime soon, if ever. Sadly, that is also the lost
promise of the euro a currency born out of enormous efforts and sacrifices
since the late 1960s. A sound dollar is irreplaceable But all that gives no
reason for smugness and complacency. Those constantly yelling at the Fed to
print more money to support equity markets should think again. The best the
Fed can do for everybody, including those asking for sure fire puts, is to run
an honest currency that will provide stable purchasing power rather than
permanent uncertainty, volatile business cycles and stealthy taxes through
inflating consumer prices. Only an economic system based on credible price
stability can provide a framework where savers and investors make their
resource allocations with predictable price and credit cost parameters.

The dollar is key to stability and is used worldwide

Investopedia no date, Investopedia is the world's leading source of financial
content on the web, ranging from market news to retirement strategies, etc,
The U.S. Dollar's Unofficial Status as World Currency,
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/07/unofficial_dollarization.asp
Stability is one of the major factors that explains why a number of countries
have adopted the U.S. dollar as official currency. The U.S. dollar has never
been devalued, and its notes have never been invalidated. For countries all
too familiar with bank failures, devaluation and inflation, the stability of the
U.S. dollar brings with it a certain amount of peace of mind. Business is easier
to conduct when a stable currency is used. Unofficial dollarization can be so
prevalent in some countries that more U.S. currency is in circulation than
local currency. Once this happens, it can be difficult to reverse. Ironically, the
very stability that dollarization brings can be a curse to local governments, as
they lose the power to control inflation and fiscal policy. However, to many,
what is a curse to the government is a blessing to others.
The Bretton-Woods System proves the CP is unsustainable
Matthew Yglesias 5/3/12, Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American writer. He
writes about economics and politics, Bretton-Woods Was Unsustainable,
http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2012/05/03/bretton_woods_was_unsus
tainable.html
I don't want to get too deep in the weeds with Amity Schlaes on the gold
standard but her praise of the Bretton-Woods system is more interesting
because the strong performance of the world economy during that era
attracts a lot of praise from different ideological sides. I wouldn't even
characterize it as a gold standard system at all nearly so much as a "dollar
standard" with pegged exchange rate. But however you characterize is it, the
thing that Bretton-Woods nostalgics tend to forget is that the Nixon
administration didn't abandon it as part of some pet ideological scheme. It
fell apart because the system was unworkable and unsustainableits
operations required a level of U.S. economy hegemony within the capitalist
bloc that was appropriate to the 1950s but didn't reflect reality once postwar
rebuilding occurred in Europe and Japan. Things were looking very raggedy by
the end of the Johnson administration, and when Nixon finally pulled the plug
it was because he had no choice. It is true that the Bretton-Woods years were
prosperous, and it's even arguably true that the Bretton-Woods system
contributed to that prosperity for much of its life. But it was dropped because
it stopped working. The United States couldn't retain the volume of gold
reserves needed to make the system work without the active cooperation of
our major trade partners and they didn't want to cooperate. And that's just a
specific case of the general point that you can't have a multilateral system of
fixed exchange rates unless all the participants agree on what to do. The
circumstances of the early Cold War facilitated that level of agreement, but
it's a really hard trick to pull off.
Warming CP 1- CSS
 1NC Shell
Text: The USFG should build Carbon Capture and Storage
plants to mitigate the adverse effects of warming
CCS tech feasible now and would solve warming
Magill 14, Bobby, Bobby Magill is a Senior Science Writer at Climate
Central, focusing on energy and climate change. Prior to joining Climate
Central, Bobby covered Western energy and environmental issues as a
freelance writer for Popular Mechanics and as an award-winning reporter for
the Fort Collins Coloradoan, Commended reporter from Columbia Journalism
Review, April 23, Carbon Capture Faces Hurdles of Will, Not Technology,
<http://www.climatecentral.org/news/carbon-capture-faces-hurdles-of-will-
not-technology-17321>. JG
If human-caused climate change is to be slowed enough to avert the
worst consequences of global warming, carbon dioxide emissions from
coal-fired power plants and other pollutants will have to be captured and
injected deep into the ground to prevent them from being released into
the atmosphere. Such is the scenario the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change paints in its recent report outlining ways climate change can be
mitigated as civilizations across the globe continue to burn fossil fuels with
little sign theyll stop anytime soon.But that scenario hinges on a huge
question: How realistic and feasible is it for carbon sequestration, also
known as carbon capture and storage, or CCS, to be implemented
globally in the coming decades and on such a wide scale that it helps to
vastly reduce greenhouse gas emissions? Scientists say that if the will
and incentives exist, CCS can be one of the biggest of many
solutions to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere.
And there's no mistaking how critical the IPCC thinks carbon capture is to
saving mankind from the ravages of climate change. In order to keep the
global average temperature from warming no more than 2C by the
year 2100 relative to the global temperature prior to 1900, the
concentration of carbon dioxide must be capped at 450 parts per
million. (Global CO2 concentrations hit 400 ppm for the first time last year.)
To do that, global greenhouse gas emissions in 2050 must be between 40 and
70 percent lower than they were in in 2010. That would be a huge feat, and
would require vast decarbonization, according to the IPCC. That means a
major rollout of renewable energy technology that emits no carbon at all, a
global emphasis on energy efficiency and, among other things, capturing
emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and burying them deep
underground or storing them elsewhere forever. In fact, all fossil fuel power
generation without CCS would need to be totally phased out.The total amount
of carbon that would need to be diverted from being emitted into the
atmosphere is stunning: Current global atmospheric CO2 emissions total
roughly 30 gigatons, or 30 billion metric tons per year. That's about the
equivalent of 1 billion barrels of compressed CO2 per day, or more than 10
times the amount of oil transported around the globe on a daily basis, Ruben
Juanes, associate professor in energy studies at the Massachusetts
Institute of Technology and an expert in CCS, said. "Of course, we don't
expect to take our current emissions to zero, or that one single technology
will do it, but this does give a sense for the scale of the problem," he
said. A viable technology to deal with such a large amount of CO2 should
need to divert 1 gigaton of CO2 per year from the atmosphere, and there's
only one technology capable of doing that CCS, he said. "If one wants to
dismiss CCS because of the scale at which it should be implemented, the
same (or worse) can be said about all other mitigtation technologies," Juanes
said. "It is a curse of the scale of the problem." The IPCC report says the
technology needed to implement carbon capture and storage operations
exists today, but outside of fossil fuel extraction and refining, CCS has
never been applied on a wide scale, or at any major electric power plant
burning fossil fuels. Carbon sequestration works basically like this: CO2 is
captured from a coal-fired power plant, compressed, and then injected into an
air-tight rock formation thousands of feet underground, isolated from the
atmosphere forever. Five of these kinds of carbon storage operations exist
today worldwide.

CSS is a bipartisan gain

Garman and Reicher 15, David and Dan, David Garman is the
Founding Dean of the School of Freshwater Studies at University of Wisconsin-
Milwakuee, Daniel Reicher is Executive Director of the Steyer-Taylor Center for
Energy Policy and Finance at Stanford University, November 16, Republicans
and Democrats can agree on carbon capture, <http://thehill.com/opinion/op-
ed/260321-republicans-and-democrats-can-agree-on-carbon-capture>. JG
On energy issues, as with so much else, Democrats and Republicans seem to
disagree about almost everything these days. Republicans support the
Keystone XL pipeline and want to end the ban on crude oil exports, positions
that most Democrats oppose. Democrats favor long-term extensions of tax
incentives for renewable energy and Environmental Protection Agency
regulations on greenhouse gases, positions most Republicans oppose. Yet,
amid the bickering, one of Americas most promising and potentially
transformative energy technologies remains a policy and political
orphan, even as it demonstrates unique energy, economic and emissions
benefits. The technology is carbon capture and storage or CCS the
process whereby emissions of CO2 from power plants and industrial
operations are captured and stored safely underground. Intriguingly, for a
country mired in partisan gridlock, CCS provides specific policy benefits
that each party truly wants. For Republicans (and some coal state
Democrats), CCS represents a way to more fully utilize Americas vast
coal and natural gas reserves while increasing domestic oil production
through the use of enhanced oil recovery a process where the
captured CO2 is injected into older oil fields to increase yield at low cost.
For Democrats, CCS represents a way to cut CO2 emissions, not only
from fossil fuel power plants but also from industrial sources such as oil
refineries, cement plants and ethanol facilities.
2NC
 Overview
The Counterplan solves their entire warming advantage.
The Magill evidence shows that Carbon Capture and
Storage (or CCS) technology is a ready and feasible
alternative to cut fossil fuel emissions in a concise fashion
. There are two net benefits to the CP. First is the Politics
DA- The Garman and Reicher evidence proves that CCS is
a bipartisan initiative, providing alternative ways to
create jobs for the right and emissions cuts for the left.
Second is the internal net benefit of speed and efficiency
of the CCS technology-Magill shows that the technology is
capable of solving.
 CP Solves Better
Cutting Carbon Emissions key to solve warming
emissions cuts save 175,000 lives
Williams 16, Casey, Casey Williams is an editorial fellow of the Huffington
Post with a degree from Duke University, February 23, Cutting Carbon
Emissions Could Save Lives Sooner Than You May Think
<http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/cutting-carbon-emissions-could-save-
175000-lives_us_56cc91bfe4b0928f5a6d52a1>. JG
Slashing carbon emissions wont just ease global warming. It could also
save thousands of lives in the U.S. by drastically reducing deaths caused
by air pollution. The cuts in carbon emissions needed to limit the rise of
global temperatures to 2 degrees Celsius (or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) would
significantly reduce other kinds of air pollution, according to a new
study by researchers at Duke University and the NASA Goddard Institute for
Space Studies. The study, published Monday in Nature Climate Change,
showed that these cuts in pollution could prevent the premature
deaths of up to 175,000 people in the U.S. by 2030 and save around
$250 billion annually in associated health costs. The new research
sheds light on how tackling climate change can result in not only long-term
benefits, but can also address health issues in the short term, said Drew
Shindell, professor of climate sciences at Duke and lead author of the study.
Many people view climate change as a future problem, but our analysis
shows that reducing emissions that cause warming many of which also
contribute to air pollution would benefit public health here and now, he
said in a statement. The health and economic benefits associated with easing
global warming could sway peoples priorities, Rachel Cleetus, lead economist
and climate policy manager at the Union of Concerned Scientists, who was
not involved in the study, told The Huffington Post on Tuesday. There are now
very good here-and-now public health reasons to make the shift to cleaner
energy, she said. Reducing carbon emissions especially from power
plants and vehicles prevents other pollutants, such as sulfur oxides,
mercury and lead, from spewing into the atmosphere. Shindell and his
research team calculated how much emissions from these co-pollutants
would decrease if the U.S. were to slash carbon emissions in the
transportation and energy sectors by 75 and 63 percent, respectively. The
researchers then calculated the number of premature deaths caused by those
co-pollutants each year by looking at medical data documenting the links
between chemical exposure and death. Using that data, researchers were
able to figure out how many deaths from air pollution could be avoided under
their emissions reduction scenarios. They found that cutting emissions from
transportation by 75 percent could prevent up to 120,000 premature deaths
by 2030. Reducing emissions from energy production by 63 percent
could prevent up to 175,000 deaths over the same period. The
researchers also found that preventing these early deaths would save the
country around $250 billion in public health costs every year. When the global
health and climate effects of reduced emissions are taken into account, the
long-term savings would roughly quintuple, according to a press release.

CCS solves warming

Herzog 16, Howard J., Senior Research Engineer in MIT Energy Initiative,
July 7, Carbon Capture is Technically Feasible, and It can be Financially
Feasible <http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2016/07/07/clean-coal-or-
a-dirty-shame/carbon-caputre-is-technically-feasible-and-it-can-be-financially-
feasible>. JG
Carbon dioxide capture and storage addresses a major weakness of
fossil fuels by reducing their carbon dioxide emissions to near zero.
It has several strengths. Unlike wind or solar, it can produce power when its
needed. It is the most efficient form of clean energy for energy-
intensive industries like cement, refineries, petrochemicals and iron and
steel. Its compatible with our fossil fuel infrastructure, which supplies
over 80 percent of the commercial energy used today, and its capacity to
produce negative emissions when combined with biomass-fired power plants.
Carbon capture has been demonstrated successfully at about two
dozen projects worldwide that each store about a million tons or more of
carbon dioxide a year. Most problems with the Kemper project are due
to issues not directly related to the carbon capture technology.
However, in todays marketplace, carbon capture is generally too expensive.
That is because policy is not in place to set significant limits on carbon
dioxide emissions. Therefore, it is cheaper to emit carbon dioxide to the
atmosphere than to capture and store it. But based on many studies that
were summarized in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Assessment Report 5, having more options, including carbon capture,
lowers costs for meeting carbon dioxide stabilization targets. The
magnitude of climate change is so large, we need as many options as
possible, including renewables, nuclear, and carbon capture. But arguing that
renewables can do it alone is a very risky proposition. One weakness of wind
and solar is their intermittency. But proponents are now claiming energy
storage can solve that problem.
 AT: Tech Fails
Carbon Capture Technology an important step forward
from coal-Canadian experiments prove
Canadian Press 16, in partner with CleanTeach Canada, Cleantech
Canada delivers the latest news and insight on the global green economy.
Our award-winning editors and expert contributors connect businesses and
entrepreneurs with information on cleantech financing, market development
and growth strategies. July 6, Carbon capture important to Canada, the
world, Natural Resources minister says North American leaders affirm carbon
capture and storage technology is one of the avenues to a low-carbon
future,<http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/sustainability/carbon-
capture-important-to-canada-world-natural-resources-minister-says-
171598/>. JG
Federal Natural Resources Minister Jim Carr says a carbon capture storage
project in Saskatchewan is very important for Canada and for the world. Carr
toured SaskPowers Boundary Dam 3 project in Estevan, Sask. July 6a site
that has been a source of significant controversy both within
Saskatchewan and across Canada. The retrofitted coal-fired power
plant captures carbon dioxide and re-purposes it for other uses or
sequester. Carr said Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, U.S. President Barack
Obama and Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto all pointed to carbon
capture and storage (CCS) as one of the roads to a low-carbon economy
when they met in Ottawa last week. The Saskatchewan plant, which officially
opened in 2014, is one source of debate around the future of energy in
Canada and the world, however. In addition to criticizing troublesome cost
overruns and maintenance issues at the facility, opponents view carbon
capture technology as a stopgap between fossil fuels and truly clean sources
of power such as renewables. Proponents point to the the drastic
improvement the CCS process has over traditional coal-fired
generation.

CCS Tech fully affordable and functional by 2022

Reuters 16, Reuters is the news and media division of Thomson Reuters.
Thomson Reuters is the world's largest international multimedia news
agency, providing investing news, world news, business news, technology
news, headline news, small business news, news alerts, personal finance,
stock market, and mutual funds information available on Reuters.com, video,
mobile, and interactive television platforms, July 4, Norway says could
achieve full carbon capture and storage by 2022,
<http://www.reuters.com/article/us-norway-ccs-idUSKCN0ZK1LW>. JG
By 2022, Norway could realize every step in the development of a
technology many see as critical to reducing global carbon emissions,
carbon capture and storage (CCS), it said on Monday. Oslo said it could
capture carbon dioxide from an industrial plant, transport it by ship
and inject it into an empty North Sea oil and gas reservoir for 4.3
billion to 7.6 billion crowns ($915 million to $515 million) by 2022. If it
goes ahead with the plan, it could help lower carbon emissions
worldwide: the International Energy Agency says deployment of carbon
capture and storage (CCS) technology is critical to reducing carbon emissions
but wide adoption of the technology has been frustrated partly due to
high costs. In 2014 Canada's Saskatchewan Power opened the world's first
coal-fired power plant retrofitted with CCS and there are now 15 large-scale
CCS projects in operation, according to the Global CCS Institute, an
Australian-based lobby. But the transportation and storage infrastructure is
still problematic, with a large up-front investment needed. Oslo said it could
be possible to set up every step in the process within six years,
according to a feasibility study released on Monday by the Norwegian
oil and energy ministry. "The cost for planning and investment for such a
chain is estimated at between 7.2 and 12.6 billion crowns (excluding VAT)," it
said in a statement, adding the cost estimates had an uncertainty of 40
percent on the lower and upper end of the scale. Three firms could
capture gas at their plants, said the ministry: carbon dioxide at an
ammonia plant run by fertiliser-maker Yara International and at a waste
incinerator owned by Oslo city council, and flue gas at a cement factory
owned by Germany's HeidelbergCement in southern Norway. The carbon
dioxide could then be transported by ship, said the ministry, citing North
Sea gas infrastructure operator Gassco. Finally it could be transported via
pipeline from an onshore installation and into an empty oil and gas
reservoir in the North Sea, said the ministry, citing oil firm Statoil. The
government said it would present further CCS plans in the 2017 state budget
in October. If the scheme goes ahead, it would be a big step for Norway: it
had to drop plans in 2013 for a costly large-scale project to capture carbon
dioxide that the then government once compared in ambition to sending
people to the Moon.

CCS Works
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory 09, November, Pacific
Northwest National Laboratory is transforming the nation's ability to predict
climate change and its impacts. This research was supported and funded by
the U.S. Department of Energy; the Ministry of Science and Technology of the
People's Republic of China; the multilateral Carbon Sequestration Leadership
Forum; the many public and private sector sponsors of the PNNL-led Global
Energy Technology Strategy Program, China Shows Promise in Carbon
Capture and Storage, <https://www.pnl.gov/science/highlights/highlight.asp?
id=685>. JG
China's rapid industrial growth has come at a pricethe country now ranks
as the world's top emitter of carbon dioxide, the chief culprit in global
warming. But new research points to a cost-effective, promising option
to dramatically reduce industrial greenhouse gas emissions while meeting
China's growing energy demands. Pacific Northwest National
Laboratory scientists, working with their Chinese partners, showed that
China has adequate deep geologic storage capacity for carbon dioxide
storage to meet likely demand for more than 100 years. Furthermore,
these natural storage reservoirs already are located near many of China's
stationary carbon dioxide-emission sources. Why it matters: Carbon dioxide
capture and storage (CCS) technologies may represent a cost-effective,
viable option to help China continue to meet its growing energy demands
while also delivering deep and sustained reductions in industrial
greenhouse gas emissions. This research defines the pivotal role that CCS
technologies can play in cost effectively reducing China's greenhouse gas
emissions over the course of this century. Until now, the discussions around
China's options were limited. "A lot of the policy dialogue and technical
discussions have this really sharp dichotomy: Either China continues to use its
vast supplies of coal and bad things happen to the environment, or they
agree to forgo the use of this valuable coal and bad things happen to their
economy," stated James Dooley, PNNL scientist and co-author of the report.
Dooley leads CCS research for the Joint Global Change Research
Institute (a collaboration of PNNL and the University of Maryland) and the
Global Energy Technology Strategy Project. But the new study shows there is
a much-needed third option for addressing these twin challengeslarge-scale
deployment of carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage technologies. The
study is the first to map enormous and widely distributed deep geologic CO2
storage formations in China that could allow for long-term, cost-
effective, large-scale deployment of CCS. The mapping of over 2,300
billion metric tons of theoretical geologic CO2 storage capacity in 90 onshore
storage formations represents a vast and valuable domestic natural resource
for China. The team has also identified an additional 780 billion metric tons of
CO2 capacity in 16 offshore geologic formations along mainland China's
heavily developed coastal regions, which could prove immensely valuable in
this part of China where there is strong potential demand for storage. The
Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum(Offsite link) awarded the
team its recognition award for this project in October 2009.
 AT: Kemper Plant
Kemper failure is an outlierthe tech is varied and strong
Plumer 16, Brad, Senior editor at Vox.com, where he oversees the site's
science, energy, and environmental coverage. He was previously a reporter
at the Washington Post covering climate and energy policy, July 6, A flagship
clean coal plant is a flailing mess. Does that mean the technology is
doomed?< http://www.vox.com/2016/7/5/12098504/kemper-ccs-problems-
clean-coal>. JG
The Kemper project is just one example of carbon capture and storage
(CCS), a catchall term for techniques in which CO2 is captured at an emission
source and then sequestered underground. But CCS can come in many
flavors, which makes generalizing from a single project tricky.
Worldwide, there are 15 CCS projects currently in operation and 7 more on
the drawing board. Four are coal plants, but theres also a natural gas
processing plant, an iron/steel facility, a fertilizer plant, an ethanol plant, and
so on. And they often use very different technologies to capture
and/or store the CO2:
 AT: Unpopular
Calls and action on going green have momentum and are
only getting louder
Roberts 12, David, Correspondent for Vox and Grist on Climate and
Politics, July 7, U.S. leads the world in cutting CO2 emissions so why arent
we talking about it? <http://grist.org/climate-policy/u-s-leads-the-world-in-
cutting-co2-emissions-so-why-arent-we-talking-about-it/>. JG
One thing that jumps out is that renewables are growing much faster in
some places than others. South Dakota now gets 22 percent of its electricity
from wind, Iowa 19 percent. The top two states in total installed wind are
Kansas and Texas. The top two for wind jobs are Iowa and Texas. Thats three
red states and a deeply purple one a wedge separating clean energy
from the climate culture wars. That portends accelerating changes in the
political economy. Also driving changes in political economy: 29 states and
D.C. now have mandatory renewable energy standards.Installed wind
and solar have doubled in the U.S. since Obama took office. Costs for
solar are plunging like crazy and onshore wind power may be competitive
with fossil fuels without subsidies by 2016. The National Renewable Energy
Laboratory says the U.S. could get 80 percent of its power from renewables
by 205o. Given that official projections of renewable energy growth have
been consistently beneath the mark, its not unreasonable to think we may
be underestimating future growth. And renewables dont have to get
that big to start making waves. The sun shines most when the most
electricity is being used peak demand so it serves to sharply reduce
peak prices. Turns out thats where utilities make a lot of their money. U.S.
utilities are being forced to crank off coal plants when peak prices drop and
then crank them back on afterwards. It is no fun to turn coal plants on and off
its slow, laborious, and kills their economics. More and more, utility
managers are turning toward upgraded, smarter grids and more flexible,
responsive mid-load plants (i.e. natural gas). By hacking off peak prices,
renewables will make the dynamics even worse for coal, well before
they reach a large proportion of total electricity. So renewables are a
bigger part of this story than they appear, and getting bigger.

Carbon initiatives are popular with consumers-proven in

banking sector
Wright 06, Christopher, Christopher Wright is a London-based contributor
to the Ecosystem Marketplace, August 1Carbon Neutrality Draws Praise,
Raises Expectations for
HSBC<http://www.ecosystemmarketplace.com/articles/carbon-neutrality-
draws-praise-raises-expectations-for-hsbc/>. JG
HSBC's commitment to carbon neutrality has received critical acclaim
by observers inside and outside the industry. Most recently, it was
named the first overall winner of the annual FT Sustainable Banking Award,
based on the recommendations of a panel of sustainable finance experts in
the banking industry. Banktrack, the NGO network, has also referred to
HSBC's commitment to carbon neutrality as an example of leadership in the
market. However, earlier this year, it produced a scathing report on the
environmental and social policies of 39 banks across 13 categories, with
failing grades scattered across the board. In this company, HSBC and ABN
AMRO came out on top, both earning an overall D+. Among hundreds of
individual rankings, only the policies of two banks received the highest
possible grade; Rabobank's adoption of the UN Draft Norms on Human Rights
and HSBC's adoption of the World Commission on Dams standards, as part of
its Freshwater Infrastructure Policy. Alongside its sector guidelines for
forestland and forest products, chemicals, and most recently, energy, this
policy shows how HSBC is among the leaders in adopting well-
recognized policies and standards in the banking sector. In
implementing these policies, HSBC, along with other banks, favors a
strategy of engagement, in which its sustainability expertise is brought to
bear in cases where clients are not complying with its policies, but are
showing credible progress towards doing so. "Rather than walk away from
clients in high-risk sectors, we believe the responsible way forward is to try
and work with them," explains Sullivan. "This would allow us to share our own
growing expertise and the positive experiences of our most committed clients
within our global client base. We want to try and make difficult transactions
doable." In making the case for constructive engagement, Sullivan refers to
cases where clients are based in countries that are in the process of
upgrading their policies and regulations, such as the new E.U. member states
in Eastern Europe. But for critics, leadership in sustainable finance is
most effective when driven by the courage to take a stance.
"Withdrawing financing on grounds that the client is in breach of
environmental and social standards delays the project and exerts a
chilling effect in the market by making other investors nervous," says
Lohmann. "It sends an important message." He has met with villagers
adversely affected by the Trans Thai-Malaysia Gas Pipeline, a joint enterprise
between Petronas of Malaysia and the Petroleum Authority of Thailand (PTT),
financed by a Barclays-led syndicate that includes HSBC. Lohmann, alongside
other civil society groups, accuses the project of violating the rights of
project-affected communities in Songkhla province of Thailand. "HSBC's
involvement in this project demonstrates that the argument of constructive
engagement does not hold water," he says. Citing client confidentiality, HSBC
would not confirm or deny its involvement in the project or any other, but
claimed it ensures that every project it finances complies with the Equator
Principles and its own environmental and social policies.
Aff
 2AC
CCS failstoo costly for incentive
Plumer 16, Brad, Senior editor at Vox.com, where he oversees the site's
science, energy, and environmental coverage. He was previously a reporter
at the Washington Post covering climate and energy policy, July 6, A flagship
clean coal plant is a flailing mess. Does that mean the technology is
doomed?< http://www.vox.com/2016/7/5/12098504/kemper-ccs-problems-
clean-coal>. JG
I dont want to be too rosy about coal CCS. The technology faces some
serious challenges overall. For starters, any plant that captures and buries
its CO2 will always be more complex and costly than a counterpart
that simply dumps its carbon into the air. Among other things,
capturing CO2 usually requires a lot of extra energy an issue known
as "parasitic load." That means coal CCS cant ever possibly compete
against conventional coal without the aid of carbon pricing or
regulations or subsidies. Southern plans to offset some of Kempers extra
cost by injecting the CO2 into old oil fields in order to recover some
previously inaccessible crude oil (a technique known as enhanced oil
recovery). But this clearly isnt a long-term climate solution. At a certain
point, someone will have to pay extra to store the CO2 underground
permanently. Coal plants with CCS also tend to be big, complex projects
and hence more vulnerable to delays and cost overruns. The Two Elk
Energy Park, a long-delayed coal CCS plant in Wyoming, suffered from these
exact issues. And similar problems are bogging down many large nuclear
plants. Better project management can help, but it may not solve all of coal
CCSs cost problems.

CCS failsrequires too much power for large scale

effectiveness
EWContributor 15, EcoWatch is one of the nation's leading
environmental news sites engaging millions of readers every month. We are
at the forefront of uniting all shades of green to ensure the health and
longevity of our planet. EcoWatch is leading the charge in using online news
to drive fundamental change, providing original content from our team of
reporters and feature insights from prominent environmental and business
leaders. We aggregate and curate news from more than 50 media partners
and hundreds of environmental and science organizations from around the
world, July 2, Once Hailed As Solution to Climate Change, Carbon Capture
and Storage 'Is Not Happening'<http://www.ecowatch.com/once-hailed-as-
solution-to-climate-change-carbon-capture-and-storage-i-1882061566.html>.
JG
The problem is that despite this enthusiasm and the fact that CCS (also
called carbon sequestration) is technically possible, it is not happening.
It is cheaper and easier to build wind and solar farms to produce electricity
than it is to collect and store the carbon from coal-powered plants emissions.
For years CO2 has been used by injecting it into old oil wells to extract more
fuel, but the cost of building new plants just to store the gas is
proving prohibitive. Hundreds of plants were expected to be up and
running by 2030, but so far none has been built. Despite this, the IEA and
governments across the world are relying on CCS to save the planet
from climate change. For example, official policy in the UK still envisages up
to 50 industrial plants and power stations using CCS being linked to CO2
pipelines which would inject the gas into old oil and gas wells, removing it
from the atmosphere forever. But research by Mads Dahl Gjefsen, a
scientist at the TIK Centre of Technology, Innovation and Culture at the
University of Oslo, Norway, says pessimism prevails within the
industry about the future of carbon capture and storage in both the U.S.
and the European Union (EU). Cost too high Collecting liquid carbon dioxide
by pipeline from large plants powered by coal is designed to allow steel,
cement and chemical industries to continue to operate without making
climate change worse. But the cost is proving so high that plants are
not being built. This is partly because the penalties imposed by
governments in the form of a carbon tax or charges for pollution
permits are so low that there is no incentive for carbon capture.
Another problem is that the technology for removing carbon from fossil
fuels, either before or after combustion, uses 40 percent more fuel to
achieve the same amount of power. In conferences designed to promote
the technology enthusiasts wonder how long they can continue, despite the
fine promises that it was this technology that would save the oil and gas
industry, Gjefsen says. He gives the example of Norway, which has invested
billions of kroner in the research and development of CCS. In 2007 the former
prime minister, Jens Stoltenberg, said that CCS would be Norways moon
landing. However, a full-scale treatment plant at the industrial site at
Mongstad never came to fruition. The technology proved too energy-
intensive and costly for large-scale use.

CCS failscant actually keep it in the ground

Chu 15, Jennifer, writer for Pennenergy and MIT Technology Review,
January 30, MIT study challenges feasibility of carbon capture and storage
http://www.pennenergy.com/articles/pennenergy/2015/01/mit-study-
challenges-feasibility-of-carbon-capture-and-storage.html JG
Carbon sequestration promises to address greenhouse-gas emissions by
capturing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and injecting it deep below the
Earths surface, where it would permanently solidify into rock. The U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency estimates that current carbon-sequestration
technologies may eliminate up to 90 percent of carbon dioxide emissions
from coal-fired power plants. While such technologies may successfully
remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, researchers in the
Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences at MIT have
found that once injected into the ground, less carbon dioxide is
converted to rock than previously imagined. The team studied the
chemical reactions between carbon dioxide and its surroundings once the gas
is injected into the Earth finding that as carbon dioxide works its way
underground, only a small fraction of the gas turns to rock. The
remainder of the gas stays in a more tenuous form. If it turns into
rock, its stable and will remain there permanently, says postdoc Yossi
Cohen. However, if it stays in its gaseous or liquid phase, it remains
mobile and it can possibly return back to the atmosphere. Cohen and
Daniel Rothman, a professor of geophysics in MITs Department of Earth,
Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, detail the results this week in the
journal Proceedings of the Royal Society A. Current geologic carbon-
sequestration techniques aim to inject carbon dioxide into the subsurface
some 7,000 feet below the Earths surface, a depth equivalent to more than
five Empire State Buildings stacked end-to-end. At such depths, carbon
dioxide may be stored in deep-saline aquifers: large pockets of brine that can
chemically react with carbon dioxide to solidify the gas. Cohen and Rothman
sought to model the chemical reactions that take place after carbon dioxide is
injected into a briny, rocky environment. When carbon dioxide is pumped
into the ground, it rushes into open pockets within rock, displacing
any existing fluid, such as brine. What remains are bubbles of
carbon dioxide, along with carbon dioxide dissolved in water. The dissolved
carbon dioxide takes the form of bicarbonate and carbonic acid, which
create an acidic environment. To precipitate, or solidify into rock,
carbon dioxide requires a basic environment, such as brine.

CCS Tech unpopular from both sides- links to PTX

Amy and Ritter 15, Jeff and Karl, Karl Ritter is AP bureau chief, Nordic &
Baltic region. Also covering climate change, from UN negotiations to Arctic
melt, Jeff Amy is a writer for the Associated Press based in Jackson, December
3, 'Clean coal' technology fails to capture world's attention
<http://cnsnews.com/news/article/clean-coal-technology-fails-capture-worlds-
attention>. JG
The Kemper County power plant was supposed to be up and running
by now, showing the world how to burn coal without spewing climate-
warming carbon pollution into the air. Instead, the coal plant towering over
pine trees and pastures in rural Mississippi is looking like another monument
to the unfulfilled promise of carbon capture technology. Construction costs
have ballooned to $6.5 billion, at least three times the original estimate,
making Kemper one of the most expensive power plants ever built and
pushing up electric bills for Mississippi Power's 186,000 customers. After
repeated delays, the project now has a completion date of June 30, or two
years behind schedule, and there are doubts even that deadline will be met.
Even some of those who supported the plant have turned against it,
advising others to think long and hard before trying something similar.
"I can't imagine that a regulator would approve this. I can't imagine
that a company would approve this," said Cecil Brown, a Democrat
recently elected to the Mississippi Public Service Commission. As a state
legislator, he voted in ways that aided construction of the Kemper plant.
Carbon capture entails catching the carbon emissions from a power plant or
cement or steel factory and injecting them underground for permanent
storage. It's a proven technology that would allow the world to keep burning
coal, oil and gas for energy while releasing little of the heat-trapping gas that
scientists say is the main cause of global warming. Despite decades of
research and pilot projects, however, carbon capture is still waiting for its
breakthrough, illustrating how hard it is for the world to do something about
global warming even when the tools are there. In 2013, Norway pulled the
plug on a major carbon capture project it had likened to the moon landing,
citing spiraling costs. Another big setback came on Nov. 25, just days ahead
of the U.N. climate talks in Paris, when Britain abruptly canceled 1 billion
pounds ($1.5 billion) in funding for carbon capture technology, raising doubts
about the fate of two projects competing for the money. While high costs are
the main problem, carbon capture also faces opposition from
environmentalists. Groups like Greenpeace and WWF say climate action
should be geared toward 100 percent renewable energy such as wind
and solar power, not toward throwing a lifeline to fossil fuels.
 CSS Artificial Trees
Mechanism
This is a specific mechanism to add as a plank to the CSS
cp as a way to just kinda sidestep any indicts over tech
feasibility.
 1NC Solvency
Text: The United States Federal Government should mass
produce artificial trees for direct air capture.
Hilary Whiteman 6/22/9, Hilary Whiteman is CNN's senior digital
producer in Hong Kong where she writes features and edits the CNN
International homepage, 'Synthetic tree' claims to catch carbon in the air,
http://www.cnn.com/2009/TECH/science/06/22/synthetic.tree.climate.change.
ccs/
LONDON, England (CNN) -- Scientists in the United States are developing a
"synthetic tree" capable of collecting carbon around 1,000 times faster than
the real thing. As the wind blows though plastic "leaves," the carbon is
trapped in a chamber, compressed and stored as liquid carbon dioxide. The
technology is similar to that used to capture carbon from flue stacks at coal-
fired power plants, but the difference is that the "synthetic tree" can catch
carbon anytime, anywhere. "Half of your emissions come from small,
distributed sources where collection at the site is either impossible or
impractical," said Professor Klaus Lackner, Ewing-Worzel Professor of
Geophysics in the Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering at
Columbia University. "We aim for applications like gasoline in cars or jet fuel
in airplanes. We are going after CO2 that otherwise is nearly impossible to
collect," he told CNN. While the idea of carbon-catchers may sound far-
fetched, an early model has been built and Lackner is in the process of
writing a proposal for consideration by the U.S. Department of Energy.
 2NC O/V
The CP would mass produce artificial trees that would
capture CO2 in the air. This will help reduce the
greenhouse effect which will lower the global
temperature.
Artificial trees solve for global climate change
Gaia Vince 10/4/12, Gaia Vince is a freelance British environmental
journalist, broadcaster and non-fiction author. She writes for The Guardian,
and, in a column called Smart Planet, for BBC Online. She was previously
news editor of Nature and online editor of New Scientist. She also wrote the
award winning, Adventures in the Anthropocene: A Journey to the Heart of the
Planet We Made
Klaus Lackner, director of the Lenfest Center for Sustainable Energy at
Columbia University, has come up with a technique that he thinks could solve
the problem. Lackner has designed an artificial tree that passively soaks up
carbon dioxide from the air using leaves that are 1,000 times more efficient
than true leaves that use photosynthesis. "We don't need to expose the
leaves to sunlight for photosynthesis like a real tree does," Lackner explains.
"So our leaves can be much more closely spaced and overlapped even
configured in a honeycomb formation to make them more efficient." The
leaves look like sheets of papery plastic and are coated in a resin that
contains sodium carbonate, which pulls carbon dioxide out of the air and
stores it as a bicarbonate (baking soda) on the leaf. To remove the carbon
dioxide, the leaves are rinsed in water vapour and can dry naturally in the
wind, soaking up more carbon dioxide. Lackner calculates that his tree can
remove one tonne of carbon dioxide a day. Ten million of these trees could
remove 3.6 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide a year equivalent to about 10%
of our global annual carbon dioxide emissions. "Our total emissions could be
removed with 100 million trees," he says, "whereas we would need 1,000
times that in real trees to have the same effect." If the trees were mass
produced they would each initially cost around $20,000 (then falling as
production takes over), just below the price of the average family car in the
United States, he says, pointing out that 70 million cars are produced each
year. And each would fit on a truck to be positioned at sites around the world.
"The great thing about the atmosphere is it's a good mixer, so carbon dioxide
produced in an American city can be removed in Oman," he says.

Artificial trees are the best option available and solves

better than the aff.
Artificial trees are cheap and have already been tested.
Lin Edwards 8/28/9, Lin has been a professional writer and editor for
over 20 years. She has also had short stories, poems and a children's book
published, along with hundreds of non-fiction articles. For the last couple of
years Lin has been concentrating on writing for online markets. Lin has
degrees in Biochemistry/Chemistry and Literature/Composition, and a
Diploma in Freelance Journalism. She is currently studying towards a Master's
degree, Forests of Artificial Trees Could Slow Global Warming,
http://phys.org/news/2009-08-forests-artificial-trees-global.html
One proposal was the building of forests of artificial trees. Each synthetic tree
could capture up to 10 tons of CO2 a day, which is thousands of times more
than a real tree. Each tree would cost around $24,400, and a forest of
100,000 of them could be constructed within the next couple of decades
using existing technologies. A forest that size would be able to remove 60%
of the UK's total CO2 emissions. Globally, forests of five to ten million trees
could absorb all the CO2 from sources other than power plants. The trees
would have a special synthetic filter that absorbs carbon dioxide. When the
filters had absorbed their load of CO2 they would be replaced with new filters
and the old ones would be stored in empty gas and oil reservoirs, such as
depleted oil wells in the North Sea. The trees are already at the prototype
stage and their design is well-advanced. The prototype is the size of an
average shipping container.
 AFF answers
The artificial trees will be too expensive to be effective.
David Biello 5/16/13, David Biello is a journalist covering environmental
issues in the United States and internationally. In 2009 Biello won an
Internews Earth Journalism Award, 400 PPM: Can Artificial Trees Help Pull
CO2 from the Air?, http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/prospects-for-
direct-air-capture-of-carbon-dioxide/
Yet, therein lies what may prove the ultimate challenge of such direct air
capture: cost. On the one end, no one is willing to pay to suck CO2 out of the
air at present and, on the other, few are willing to pay for CO2 either to be
stored or used. An estimate from the American Physical Society (pdf)
suggested that such air capture might cost roughly $600 per metric ton of
CO2 captured, which makes even Lackner's bulky resin trees into the Tesla
Roadster of emission reductions. Capturing a gas that makes up just 0.04
percent of the air may prove too energy intensive and too expensive to
sustain. Then again, given the climate change impacts already seen at
present greenhouse gas concentrations, the world may not have much
choice. Lackner and colleagues argued in a paper published last July in
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences that air capture may prove
the only way to deal with greenhouse gas emissions from transportation, all
those tailpipes and engine exhausts on the world's millions of cars, airplanes
and other vehicles. "Given the enormity of the global climate challenge, we
think this [air capture research and development] needs to be scaled up
urgently," the research team wrote. Already, the $25-million Virgin Earth
Challenge Prize for CO2-reduction technologies has identified Lackner's work,
along with four other air capture schemes, for award consideration. The other
possibilities include biochar and biofuels with CO2 capture as well as efforts
to enhance natural processes that capture CO2 like rock weathering and
vegetation regrowth.

Artificial trees dont have a way to get rid of the CO2 and
will be hard to mass produce.
Richard Schiffman 2/8/13, Richard Schiffman is an environmental
journalist whose work has appeared in the Washington Post, NPR, the New
York Times, Reuters and elsewhere. He is also the author of two biographies
and a widely published poet, Can Carbon-Mopping Artificial Trees Slow
Climate Crisis?, http://www.yesmagazine.org/planet/can-carbon-mopping-
artificial-trees-slow-climate-crisis
The principle is not new. Similar technologies have been used in the enclosed
spaces of submarines and space shuttles to scrub the air of excess carbon
dioxide. What is novel in Lackner and Wrights approach is mainly their
outsized ambition, and the knotty technological problems which
implementing it globally would entail. They are still trying to find a cost-
effective way to further purify the CO2 after it comes off the plastic leaves,
and to securely bury the gas underground or below the ocean floor. Their
biggest challenge, however, is not technical but economic: How to
manufacture and market the artificial trees cheaply enough and in sufficient
quantities to begin to make a real dent on global warming. In order for this to
happen, there needs to be equal economic incentives for taking CO2 out of
the atmosphere as there currently are for putting it in through the
combustion of fossil fuels.

Removing the CO2 costs massive amounts and there

arent enough development s for the technology to be
feasible.
TheGaurdian 1/12/16, British newspaper, Could artificial trees be part
of the climate change solution?,
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jan/12/artificial-trees-fight-
climate-change
The Center for Negative Carbon Emissions is developing technology that it
says is 1,000 times as effective as trees, per unit of biomass. The group is
located in the desert because its technology responds well to warm, dry air
and requires less energy in that environment. Operating in cooler climates,
such as Boston, would add expenses. Once the technology is fully built out,
the group estimates it will be removing carbon dioxide for about $100 a
tonne. As is, theres no resemblance to a tree as scientists including those
at Arizona State focus on making the carbon-removal process effective and
affordable rather than beautiful to look at. More developments are needed for
it to be cost-effective and spread around the world. Since 2007, the Global
CCS Institute says, the global investment in carbon capture and storage has
been less than $20bn, about one-hundredth of the investment into renewable
technologies.
Warming CP 2-Cloud Seeding
CP
Julia Gyourko
 Notes on Cloud Seeding
The file contains info surrounding two similar types of
cloud seeding that could be easily confused. The main one
is using salt water on cumulus (the thick, fluffy kind of
clouds) that increases their reflectivity. Another method
(in the neg blocks) is seeding cirrus clouds (the thin, high
in the atmosphere wispy clouds) that are made of ice
crystals using aerosols such as mineral dust to allow more
heat to escape out of the atmosphere. Similarly, the
drought add-ons use the same method of spraying
aerosols into cumulus clouds.
 1NC
Text: The USFG should sufficiently fund cloud seed to
combat the effects of climate change
Cloud seeding solvescumulus seeding reflects back heat
Chan 15, Louise, current environmental reporter for Tech Times, formerly
teacher at MIT International School, Balsam Brands, Department of Science
and Technology, November 18,Scientists Want To Combat Global Warming
With Controversial Cloud Seeding,
<http://www.techtimes.com/articles/108049/20151118/scientists-want-to-
combat-global-warming-with-controversial-cloud-seeding.htm>.
One of the proposals to combat climate change comes from the University of
Washington's Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean
(JISAO) which believes that climate engineering techniques can be
humanity's weapon against the continuing increase in temperature
and extreme weather worldwide. More specifically, JISAO scientists
believe that misting the clouds with saltwater, a cloud reflectivity
modification technique would help in brightening up the clouds and
aid it with reflecting sunlight back to lessen amount of heat that will
enter through the atmosphere. "If you can reflect away some of that
radiation... you will cool the planet," Tom Ackerman, an atmospheric
scientist at JISAO said. Ackerman directs this specific research on climate
change at JISAO. "People have this sort of innate response that somehow
we're tinkering with Mother Nature, and we shouldn't be doing that,"
Ackerman said, explaining why there have been oppositions to such plans.
However, he also said that humans already emit carbon dioxide into the
atmosphere due to fossil fuel use. Clive Hamilton, an Australian ethicist,
argued against using Geoengineering as a remedy to climate problems. He
believes that the humanity's attitude is what needs to be changed in order to
reach a long term solution. "Technofixes-technical solutions to social
problems-are appealing when we are unwilling to change ourselves
and our social institutions... There is a long history of technological
interventions
2NC
 Overview
The CP solves for warmingthe Chan evidence shows us
that by spraying cumulus clouds with sea water, their
reflective ability will increase and then reflect more
sunlight back towards space, resulting in a cooling effect
that can combat warming.
The net benefit is the (insert country) DA. By not
engaging with China, we avoid escalating tensions and
thus the entire DA.
 Cloud Seeding Solves
Cloud seeding with ocean spray works
Cartlidge 08, Edwin, Cartlidge is a writer and journalist for the magazine
Physics World, a member magazine for the Institute of Physics and has a
degree in Physics, September 4, Cloud-seeding ships could combat climate
change, <http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/news/2008/sep/04/cloud-
seeding-ships-could-combat-climate-change>.
It should be possible to counteract the global warming associated with
a doubling of carbon dioxide levels by enhancing the reflectivity of low-
lying clouds above the oceans, according to researchers in the US
and UK. John Latham of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in
Boulder, US, and colleagues say that this can be done using a
worldwide fleet of autonomous ships spraying salt water into the air.
Clouds are a key component of the Earths climate system. They can both
heat the planet by trapping the longer-wavelength radiation given off from
the Earths surface and cool it by reflecting incoming shorter wavelength
radiation back into space. The greater weight of the second mechanism
means that, on balance, clouds have a cooling effect. Lathams proposal,
previously put forward by himself and a number of other scientists, involves
increasing the reflectivity, or albedo, of clouds lying about 1 km above the
oceans surface. The idea relies on the Twomey effect, which says that
increasing the concentration of water droplets within a cloud raises
the overall surface area of the droplets and thereby enhances the
clouds albedo. By spraying fine droplets of sea water into the air,
the small particles of salt within each droplet act as new centres of
condensation when they reach the clouds above, leading to a greater
concentration of water droplets within each cloud.

Even cirrus seeding can mitigate the effects of climate

change
Smythe 13, Jane, Undergraduate student at Yale Goephysics and Geology
and Studying New Haven pollution with the use of lidar, and the hydrological
response to geoengineering in global climate models, December 10, Cloud
Seeding: A Geo-Engineered Response to Climate Change?
<http://climate.yale.edu/news/cloud-seeding-geo-engineered-response-
climate-change>.
Clouds, air pollutants, and the underlying landscapes all impact Earths
energy budget in complex and competing ways. Atmospheric scientists from
Yale and Tokyos Todai University gathered at a YCEI sponsored forum in
September to share how they use climate models to study how humans affect
this nuanced systemand how we can possibly counteract global
warming by manipulating cloud formation. Though high-altitude cirrus
clouds reflect some incoming solar radiation, they also strongly absorb
heat radiated from the Earths surface, causing temperatures to rise.
Some climate scientists argue that dispersing tiny aerosol particles in the
atmosphere would allow the ice crystals that make up cirrus clouds to grow
larger, and thus fall faster, reducing the cloud lifetime. Altering clouds with
particle injection would thus reduce cirrus coverage and allow more
heat to escape the earth. Yale scientist Trude Storelvmo recently tested
this thought experiment with a global climate model. At the YCEI forum,
Professor Storelvmo shared how releasing aerosols in mid to high
latitude regions could cool surface temperatures to pre-industrial
levels. Her model results show that the interactions of cirrus clouds and
aerosol particles, such as mineral dust or bismuth tri-iodide, can reduce cloud
lifetimes and their warming effects on Earth. The technique is not without
risks, warned Storelvmo. Seed too few particles and the effects wont be
strongly felt; too many and the particles may overstimulate cloud growth,
heating the planet. Done properly, however, cloud seeding could undo
decades of warming.

Cloud seeding tech is possible

Gohring 12, Nancy, Nancy Gohring is a free-lancer in Seattle who
frequently writes about telecommunications and an associate writer with the
University of Washington, August 20, Experiment would test cloud
geoengineering as way to slow warming,
<http://www.washington.edu/news/2012/08/20/experiment-would-test-cloud-
geoengineering-as-way-to-slow-warming/>.
University of Washington atmospheric physicist Rob Wood describes a
possible way to run an experiment to test the concept on a small scale
in a comprehensive paper published this month in the journal Philosophical
Transactions of the Royal Society. unusual water craft with three large
sprayers shooting water into the sky A conceptualized image of an
unmanned, wind-powered, remotely controlled ship that could be used to
implement cloud brightening. The point of the paper which includes
updates on the latest study into what kind of ship would be best to spray the
salt water into the sky, how large the water droplets should be and the
potential climatological impacts is to encourage more scientists to consider
the idea of marine cloud brightening and even poke holes in it. In the paper,
he and a colleague detail an experiment to test the concept. What were
trying to do is make the case that this is a beneficial experiment to do, Wood
said. With enough interest in cloud brightening from the scientific
community, funding for an experiment may become possible, he said.
The theory behind so-called marine cloud brightening is that adding
particles, in this case sea salt, to the sky over the ocean would form
large, long-lived clouds. Clouds appear when water forms around particles.
Since there is a limited amount of water in the air, adding more particles
creates more, but smaller, droplets. It turns out that a greater number of
smaller drops has a greater surface area, so it means the clouds reflect a
greater amount of light back into space, Wood said. That creates a
cooling effect on Earth.
 Drought Add-On
Cloud Seeding is the key to solving drought
Evans 16, Carter, Current CBS correspondent and former CNN
correspondent, March 12, Could cloud seeding help with California's
drought? <http://www.cbsnews.com/news/could-cloud-seeding-help-with-
californias-drought/>.
"There are 10 of these locations throughout the San Gabriel Mountains," said
Kerjon Lee of the L.A. County Department of Public Works. The DPW has
paid a half million dollars to a cloud seeding contractor promising to
make more rain. Lee says it's not just hocus pocus. "This actually comes
with a lot of science behind it," Lee told CBS News. Cloud seeding works
when silver iodide particles are sprayed into a saturated cloud. They act
like a nucleus, which attracts super-cooled water vapor that freezes
into ice. Once the ice becomes heavy enough, it falls and melts to
become rain. "It is wishful thinking," said Graeme Stephens, who studies
clouds and weather systems for NASA. "It's been shown under certain
circumstances it works but in a very marginal way," Stephens said. "And even
then, it would be difficult to prove how much increases actually occur." L.A.
County officials insist they can get up to 15 percent more rainfall,
with no health risks. Lee said the process will not contaminate the water
supply. "No, absolutely not," he said. "Cloud seeding is absolutely safe."
And he said it could make a big difference. "Based on our 50-year study, I
think we can get an additional 1.5 billion gallons a year," Lee
estimated. That would be a welcome sight in Southern California's depleted
reservoirs

Cloud Seeding is the cheap solution to drought

Daigneau 14, Elizabeth, Managing Editor of GOVERNING, previously, she
was the assistant to the editor at Foreign Policy magazine. She graduated
from American University in 2002 with a Bachelor of Arts degree in journalism
and literature, January, Dried Up and Maxed Out, California Tries to Make It
Snow,<http://www.governing.com/topics/transportation-infrastructure/gov-
california-tries-to-make-snow.html>.
What to do when the rain wont come? If youre California, you seed
the clouds. At least thats what water managers, utilities and ski-resort
operators in the state are hoping to do this winter. 2013 was the driest year
on record for the Golden State. So officials there plan to spray silver iodide
into the clouds in an effort to squeeze every last possible snowflake out of
them and replenish state water resources. Cloud seeding has been
around for almost 70 years now, since Vincent Schaefer, a self-taught
chemist, dumped six pounds of dry ice into the clouds over the Berkshire
Mountains in Massachusetts in 1946, making them snow. The experiment led
to speculation that cloud seeding could fight drought, control storms,
reduce hail and quench forest fires. Indeed, today about 10 states,
mostly in the West, have cloud-seeding operations to combat such conditions.
In Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, Utah and Wyoming, cloud-
seeders are hired to increase the snowpack. In Kansas and Texas, they work
to induce rain, and in North Dakota, they induce rain before the clouds can
produce crop-damaging hail. Cloud seeding is the process of spreading either
dry ice or more often silver iodide into the upper part of clouds to try to
stimulate the precipitation process and form rain or snow. With the recent
glut of extreme droughts, floods, forest fires and other adverse weather
conditions, interest in cloud seeding is growing. Jeff Tilley, director of
weather modification at the Desert Research Institute (DRI), part of the
Nevada system of higher education, told the San Francisco radio station
KQED that the practice of cloud seeding has become more and more
scientifically robust over the last 10 to 15 years. As a result, we now know
much more about how to seed clouds properly, he said, what techniques
work under what conditions. But while the technology is better, there is still
a dearth of good evidence on whether cloud seeding really works, or what, if
any, the long-term consequences are of altering nature. There does seem
to be a general consensus that cloud seeding isnt harmful to the
environment. The amount of silver iodide used is so little, according
to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, that there is no
reason to fear any toxic effects. As for complaints that cloud seeding robs
Peter to pay Paul: Weather experts say theres not a shred of evidence that
shows cloud seeding affects snow and rainfall downwind of specific areas.
The biggest debate is over how much extra water cloud seeding actually
generates. The DRI estimates that cloud seeding produces about a 10
percent increase in snowpack. A 2013 report by the California Department of
Water Resources estimated an average snowpack increase of just 4 percent.
That lack of certainty is one reason why the weather modification world is
eagerly awaiting the results of a Wyoming study to be completed later this
year. The state has invested $13 million since 2005 in a project to determine
whether cloud seeding really increases the amount of snowpack in several of
the states mountain ranges. It is the first rigorous and comprehensive
study of the field, and many believe it will bring new credibility to
cloud seeding. Similarly, Colorado recently asked cloud-seeding programs
in the state to do more stringent target and control evaluations, comparing
seeded areas with comparable geographic areas that arent targeted. Cloud
seeding isnt a panacea for water woes, but its one of the cheaper solutions.
The National Resources Defense Council (NRDC) reports that building and
operating a desalination plant, for example, costs between $1,000 and
$2,000 for every acre-foot of water it yields. Cloud seeding, on the
other hand, yields that same acre-foot of water for $5 to $15.

Cloud Seeding solves droughts

Pelley 16, Janet, Pelley is a member of the American Chemical Society and
the Sierra Club of Canada with a degree in ecology from the University of
Minnesota, May 26, Does cloud seeding really
work?<http://cen.acs.org/articles/94/i22/Does-cloud-seeding-really-
work.html>.
Terry Krauss, a meteorologist with the Alberta Severe Weather
Management Society, a nonprofit agency funded by insurance firms [says]
. Our data show that the seeding may have avoided up to C$100
million in damage to homes and cars, he says. On a severe storm day,
he adds, even a 1% reduction in hail intensity will more than pay for the
annual C$4 million cost of Albertas hail suppression program. Not only has
cloud seeding been used to mitigate hailstorms for years, it has also
been used to try to enhance rain- and snowfall for water storage in
reservoirs and in the ground. These small-scale projects are not to be
confused with geoengineering schemes that propose tinkering with the
planets weather by modifying Earths ability to reflect solar energy.
Currently, more than 50 countries worldwide participate in cloud-seeding
operations. And these operations are growing in popularity. Almost half of
the worlds population will be living in water-stressed areas by 2030,
according to estimates from the United Nations. This year, the United Arab
Emirates (U.A.E.) awarded $5 million to rain enhancement researchers in
Japan, Germany, and the U.A.E. to address the problem. So it seems odd then
that cloud seeding, so heavily touted, hasnt actually been statistically proven
to work. After the method was first tested 70 years ago, enthusiasm for cloud
seeding led to experiments that claimed annual precipitation increases of
10% or more. But the studies lacked statistical rigor. And running control
experiments in cloud-seeding studies is a challenge: Once a cloud is treated,
you cant measure how much it would have rained or snowed if left
unseeded. Even the basic mechanics underlying the crystallization of water
molecules on seeding agents remains mysterious. After the 1980s, with few
results to show for the millions of dollars invested in research, studies on
weather modification dropped to a trickle. Yet over the past decade,
advances in remote-sensing and modeling and new work on the
physics of ice formation are reviving hopes for a more solid scientific
footing for cloud seeding.
 AT: US wont do it
Fiat means that the CP happens.
 AT: Geoengineering Bad
Ignoring geoengineering on principle ensures massive
negative effects of climate change
Bloomberg Editorial Board 15, February 26, Geoengineering Is
Good Insurance, <https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2015-02-
26/geoengineering-is-good-insurance>.
The smart response to these uncertainties is to insure against them.
That means, first and foremost, shifting away from fossil fuels, ideally by
means of a carbon tax. But "geoengineering" technologies that arrest
climate change in other ways -- by removing greenhouse gases from the
atmosphere or by reflecting sunlight back into space -- are worth
exploring, too. Geoengineering makes many people uneasy -- and for
good reason. It involves risks of its own. The most aggressive types of
intervention could cause ozone loss, new weather patterns, crop failure and
famine; there may be other risks besides. Yet, as a pair of new reports for
the National Academy of Sciences argue, this shouldn't stand in the
way of more research. Geoengineering comes in different forms, with
different levels of risk. One approach is to remove carbon from the
atmosphere. At the moment, this looks prohibitively expensive, but better
technology could lower the cost. The other is adding particles to the upper
atmosphere to deflect the sun's rays. That might be cheaper and faster, but
it's also riskier. It's similar to what happens when a volcano erupts. That's
how scientists know it has a cooling effect. It's also why they're concerned
about side effects, such as loss of ozone and changes in weather systems. In
both cases, more research is needed, and it's an investment worth
undertaking. The view that geoengineering should be rejected in
principle, because it's wrong to mess with the climate in this way,
ignores the possibility that drastic remedies may be needed to
forestall an eventual climate catastrophe.
 2AC
Cloud seeding failswindow for success too small
Ball 13, Philip, Philip Ball is a freelance science writer. He worked previously
at Nature for over 20 years, first as an editor for physical sciences (for which
his brief extended from biochemistry to quantum physics and materials
science) and then as a Consultant Editor, Philip has a BA in Chemistry from
the University of Oxford and a PhD in Physics from the University of Bristol,
March 4, Geoengineering: Goldilocks effect to Cloud Seeding,
<http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20130304-the-trouble-with-cloud-
seeding>.
Its quite a promise. Using existing technology, we could engineer clouds to
cancel the entire warming caused by human activity from pre-industrial times
to present day. But cloud seeding, the latest of many geo-engineering
proposals to mitigate climate change, has a drawback: get it only a bit
wrong, and you make the problem worse. That, however, has been the
worry with proposed technical fixes to the climate all along. We could fire a
fleet of little mirrors into an orbit around the Sun that locks them in place to
deflect sunlight from the Earth. But if it goes wrong, we could be plunged into
an ice age. Manipulating the clouds has been a popular idea with
would-be geo-engineers, but these proposals face the fact that the
climate effects of clouds are among the hardest parts of the climate
system to understand and predict, so we cant be too sure what the
results will be. The new suggestion examined by climate scientist Trude
Storelvmo of Yale University and her co-workers targets the cirrus ice
clouds that extend their thin and wispy tendrils in the upper troposphere, at
altitudes of about 5-15 kilometres. The researchers say that these thin clouds
are known with confidence to have a net warming effect on our planet,
since their ice crystals re-emit infrared radiation absorbed from the sun-
warmed surface back down towards ground. So if we can make cirrus
thinner still, well let out more heat and cool the globe. This idea was
first suggested in 2009 by David Mitchell and William Finnegan of the Desert
Research Institute in Nevada. It relies on a rather counterintuitive effect: the
warming influence of cirrus cloud could be reduced by adding tiny seed
particles to the upper troposphere that actually encourage the formation of
the ice crystals from which the clouds are made. So how does that work? The
ice crystals of cirrus clouds generally form spontaneously in moist, cold air.
But seed particles, if present in the right concentration, could grab
all the water vapour to produce a small number of large ice crystals,
preventing the formation of lots of unseeded little ones. This would
have two consequences. First, the resulting clouds would be more transparent
just as big blobs of water in oil create a more transparent mixture as salad
dressing separates out, compared with the milky, opaque emulsion you get
when you shake it into lots of tiny droplets. Thinner clouds absorb less
radiation from the warm ground, allowing more to escape into space.
Second, clouds made from larger ice particles have shorter lives, because the
big crystals sink down through the atmosphere under gravity. One of the
advantages of climate engineering via clouds is that the effects are transient:
if it doesnt go to plan, the process can be stopped and all will return to
normal in a matter of weeks. Mitchell and Finnegan suggested that one could
seed cirrus clouds by releasing particles from aircraft. They also suggested a
good material for the seeds, the somewhat exotic (but not excessively costly)
compound bismuth tri-iodide, as it is known to promote ice formation on its
surface. But will this work as planned? Thats what Storelvmo and colleagues
have now studied by using a climate model that incorporates a description of
cirrus cloud formation. They find that to get climate cooling, one has to
use just the right concentration of seed particles. Too few, and cirrus
clouds form just as they do normally. But if there are too many seeds, they
generate more ice crystals than would have formed in their absence, and the
clouds are actually thicker, trapping even more heat. If we get the seed
concentration right, the effect is dramatic: the cooling is enough to offset all
global warming. But this Goldilocks window is quite narrow. Whats
more, the researchers say, finding the precise boundaries of the window
requires more information than we have at present, for example about the
ability of bismuth tri-iodide to seed ice formation, and the rates at which the
ice crystals will settle through the atmosphere. So attempting this sort of
engineering prematurely could backfire even if the effect would be quite
short-lived, we should hold fire until we know more.

Geoengineering badencourages unsustainability that

tech cant resolve
Conway 14, Eric, Eric Conway is a scientist at the NASA Jet Propulsion
Laboratory, Just 5 questions: Hacking the planet,
<http://climate.nasa.gov/news/1066/just-5-questions-hacking-the-planet/>.
What would geoengineering solve, and what would it not solve?
Geoengineering is not a cure. At best, its a Band-Aid or tourniquet; at
worst, it could be a self-inflicted wound. By itself, hacking the climate
system wont fix the way society manages the planet, and in fact it can de-
incentivize [effective management]. If geoengineering is perceived as a
silver bullet that offers the illusion of consequence-free carbon pollution,
then theres no incentive to control emissions that are the root cause of the
problem. Even if geoengineering could be made to work safely, we
would have to continuously ramp it up to keep pace with
accelerating emissions and thats not sustainable. The climate has a
lot of inertia; once it starts moving in a certain direction it may be difficult to
stop. The carbon we are pumping into the atmosphere today is essentially
permanent; natural processes take thousands of years to remove it. There
may also be irreversible tipping points cliffs, or points of no return that
could cause dramatic, abrupt climate changes like shifts in ocean circulation
or irreversible melting of the Greenland ice sheet. Generally, we dont
understand the risks of geoengineering well. Engineering the planet
could make things worse, and it could cause serious social and political
issues. All of these things suggest to me that geoengineering should be
seen as a highly uncertain insurance policy or emergency response, not a
solution

Cloud seeding technology not ready

Lamb and Silverman 08, Robert and Jacob, Robert Lamb is a Senior
writer and podcaster for Stuff to Blow Your Mind and a degree in creative
writing from the University of Tennessee, Jacob Silverman holds a B.A. in
English and creative writing from Emory University, where he also studied
Russian and history, and is a contributing writer at science.com, ND Can
China control the weather?
<http://science.howstuffworks.com/nature/climate-
weather/meteorologists/cloud-seeding2.htm>.
Despite some successful tests, cloud seeding still has many problems.
The fundamental concern is: Does it work? It may be a chicken-and-egg
conundrum -- would it have rained in a given area without the use of cloud
seeding, and would it have rained less? Cloud seeding also depends
heavily on environmental conditions like temperature and cloud
composition. In 2003, the United States National Academy of Sciences
declared that 30 years of studies had not produced "convincing"
evidence that weather modification works [source: Associated Press].
On the other hand, the American Meteorological Society claims that some
studies on cloud seeding show a 10 percent increase in rain volume. Cloud
seeding is quite expensive, though potentially cheaper than other
projects, like diverting rivers, building new canals or improving irrigation
systems. Then again, the allure of cloud seeding may redirect attention and
funding from other projects that could be more promising. Then there are
questions about altering weather. Are some areas taking moisture out of the
air that would have fallen as rain in another region? And if regions are
experiencing drought due to climate change, isn't effort better spent tackling
the causes of global warming? Despite reassurances from cloud-seeding
companies, concerns also remain about exposure to silver iodide
toxicity and soil contamination.

Cloud seeding Fails at stopping drought- Philippine

experiment shows
Alipala and Santos 16, Julie and Dennis, Julie Alipala is Director of the
National Union of Journalists of the Philippines and a writer for the Philippine
Daily Inquirer, Dennis Santos is a journalist for the Philippine Daily Inquirer,
March 2,Cloud seeding fails, <http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/769921/cloud-
seeding-fails>.
It was a lesson about not learning a lesson. Officials, were warned
against wasting funds on artificially generating rain, declared cloud
seeding a failure in easing the effects of the El Nio phenomenon in
the city. For 12 days until Feb. 28, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical
and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) and the Philippine Air
Force conducted cloud-seeding operations at a cost of 1.3 million.
But Teotimo Reyes Jr., department manager of water production of
Zamboanga City Water District (ZCWD), said the effects of the drought
brought by El Nio had not eased. We did not see or experience any
increase in the water stream, the ground [remains] very dry, Reyes
said. In January, while the cloud-seeding operations were still being planned,
vegetable farmers in the city already urged authorities to abandon the idea,
citing past cases and amid an admission from a weather specialist that it
might actually do more harm than good. Annaliza Pabayos, a vegetable
farmer in Barangay San Roque here, said that in the past, cloud seeding killed
vegetables. I prefer to fetch water from the river to my field, Pabayos said.
Celestiano Ahamad, a farm caretaker in Barangay Dita, agreed with Pabayos.
Cloud seeding dries up the leaves of corn, cassava and sweet potato, he
said. Instead of spending for cloud-seeding operations, he said, the
government should allocate fuel to farmers so they can use their water
pumps to draw water from rivers. Maribel Enriquez, Pagasa chief
meteorologist here, said cloud seeding, indeed, increases the salt
concentration in rain. If (cloud seeding-induced) rainwater falls on
farms and through osmosis, the leaves will wither,
Warming CP 3-Cloud
Computing
 Cloud Computing CP
CP text: The United States Federal Government should
reform the NSAs program of undermining encryption
standards and introducing surveillance backdoors in
software and the cloud

CP boosts the cloud computing sector and also solves

Chinese IP theft, improving US-China relations because
China fears the surveillance other countries/companies
wont join in data sharing on the cloud because for the
same reason
Castro and McQuinn 15 (Beyond the USA Freedom Act: How U.S. Surveillance Still Subverts U.S.
Competitiveness ITIF: Information Technology and Innovation Foundation; Daniel Castro (B.S. in foreign service from Georgetown University
and an M.S. in information security technology and management from Carnegie Mellon University) is vice president at the Information
Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF) and director of the Center for Data Innovation, an affiliate of ITIF, specializing in privacy, security,
intellectual property, Internet governance, e-government, and accessibility for people with disabilities. His work has been quoted and cited in
numerous media outlets, including The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, NPR, USA Today, Bloomberg News, and Bloomberg
Businessweek. Castro was named to FedScoops list of the top 25 most influential people under 40 in government and tech. In 2015, U.S.
Secretary of Commerce Penny Pritzker appointed Castro to the Commerce Data Advisory Council. Castro previously worked as an IT analyst at
the Government Accountability Office (GAO) where he audited IT security and management controls at various government agencies. He
contributed to GAO reports on the state of information security at a variety of federal agencies, including the Securities and Exchange
Commission and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. In addition, Castro was a visiting scientist at the Software Engineering Institute in
Pittsburgh, PA, where he developed virtual training simulations to provide clients with hands-on training of the latest information security tools.
Alan McQuinn (graduate of the University of Texas at Austin with a B.S. in public relations and political communications) is a research analyst
at the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation. His research areas include cybersecurity, privacy, virtual currencies, e-government,
Internet governance, and commercial drones. He was previously a telecommunications fellow for Representative Anna Eshoo (D-CA). July 9,
2015, https://itif.org/publications/2015/06/09/beyond-usa-freedom-act-how-us-surveillance-still-subverts-us-competitiveness - LK)

revelations about pervasive digital

Almost two years ago, ITIF described how
surveillance by the U.S. intelligence community could severely harm the
competitiveness of the United States if foreign customers turned away from U.S.-made
technology and services. Since then, U.S. policymakers have failed to
take sufficient action to address these surveillance concerns; in some
cases, they have even fanned the flames of discontent by championing weak information
security practices. In addition, other countries have used anger over U.S.
government surveillance as a cover for implementing a new wave of
protectionist policies specifically targeting information technology. The
combined result is a set of policies both at home and abroad that sacrifices robust competitiveness
of the U.S. tech sector for vague and unconvincing promises of improved national security. ITIF estimated
even a modest drop in the expected foreign market share
in 2013 that
for cloud computing stemming from concerns about U.S. surveillance
could cost the United States between $21.5 billion and $35 billion by 2016. Since then, it has become clear
the cloud computing sector, has under-
that the U.S. tech industry as a whole, not just
performed as a result of the Snowden revelations . Therefore, the economic impact of
U.S. surveillance practices will likely far exceed ITIFs initial $35 billion estimate. This report catalogues a
wide range of specific examples of the economic harm that has been done to U.S. businesses. In short,
foreign customers are shunning U.S. companies . The policy implication of this is clear:
Now that Congress has reformed how the National Security Agency (NSA) collects bulk domestic phone
it is
records and allowed private firmsrather than the governmentto collect and store approved data,
time to address other controversial digital surveillance activities by the U.S.
intelligence community. The U.S. governments failure to reform many of the
NSAs surveillance programs has damaged the competitiveness of the U.S.
tech sector and cost it a portion of the global market share. This includes programs
such as PRISMthe controversial program authorized by the FISA Amendments Act, which allows for
warrantless access to private-user data on popular online services both in the
United States and abroadand Bullrunthe NSAs program to undermine
encryption standards both at home and abroad . Foreign companies have seized on these
controversial policies to convince their customers that keeping data at home is
safer than sending it abroad, and foreign governments have pointed to
U.S. surveillance as justification for protectionist policies that
require data to be kept within their national borders . In the most
extreme cases, such as in China, foreign governments are using fear of
digital surveillance to force companies to surrender valuable intellectual
property, such as source code. In the short term, U.S. companies lose out on contracts, and over the
long term, other countries create protectionist policies that lock U.S. businesses out of foreign markets.
This not only hurts U.S. technology companies, but costs American jobs and weakens the U.S. trade
balance. To reverse this trend,ITIF recommends that policymakers: Increase
transparency about U.S. surveillance activities both at home and abroad.
Strengthen information security by opposing any government efforts to
introduce backdoors in software or weaken encryption . Strengthen U.S. mutual legal
assistance treaties (MLATs). Work to establish international legal standards for
government access to data.

2 ILs to solving warming:

1. If companies around the globe join the cloud, it would
massively reduce CO2 emissions yearly just through
energy efficiency alone
Foster 11 (Pete Foster is writer, researcher and consultant on sustainable
ICT (information and communications technology) for the Guardian. Cloud
computing a green opportunity or climate change risk? August 18, 2011,
https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/cloud-computing-climate-
change - LK)
Cloud computing enables users to to share resources and carry out tasks
remotely. Rather than using your own local PCs or servers to do the work, you connect to a remote data
centre, often provided by an IT services or software company. It means more computing is migrating to
From a low carbon perspective it's no bad thing. Data
purpose-built data centres.
centres tend to be more energy efficient than individual servers distributed
around an organisation and, while there is still vast room for improvement, many
companies are working to make their computing facilities more energy
efficient. Software and IT services suppliers, for example, have been vying to be seen as the greenest
provider apart from the PR value there is a great deal of money to be saved in greater energy efficiency.
There is also growing evidence of the extent of energy and
emissions that can be saved from cloud computing. A report from cleantech
market intelligence firm Pike Research found that the adoption of cloud computing
will lead to a 38% reduction in worldwide expenditure by 2020, compared
data centre energy
to what would otherwise be used.
The Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) reached a
similar conclusion, finding that large US companies that use cloud computing
will be able to save $12.3bn in energy costs and 85.7 million metric tons of CO2
emissions annually by 2020. The energy savings are equivalent to 200 million
barrels of oil enough to power 5.7 million cars for one year.

2. Widespread cloud computing key to timely solutions on

climate change important data
Jararweh, et al., 15 (Climate Change above the Cloud: Accelerating Climate
Change Research with Cloud Computing Infrastructure ResearchGate, Yaser Jararweh is a
Ph.D. in Distributed Computing, Information Science, and Operating Systems from Jordan
University of Science and Technology; Mahmoud Al-Ayyoub is a Ph.D. in Computer
Communications (Networks), Algorithms, Theory of Computation at the Jordan University of
Science and technology; Izzat Alsmadi is a PhD in software engineering including Computer
Security and Reliability, and Computer Communications (Networks); and Darrel Jenerette at the
University of California, Riverside; May 2015,
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/277476603_Climate_Change_above_the_Cloud_Accel
erating_Climate_Change_Research_with_Cloud_Computing_Infrastructure - LK)

The analysis of large-scale data for the purpose of extracting patterns is

applicable to several research fields. However, the size of this data is rapidly
growing on a daily basis creating a need for new computing paradigms
capable of handling such growing data efficiently . Cloud computing is one
of the possible solutions to satisfy this pressing need. In this paper, a
cloud computing based study for large scale climate related historical data
from Jordan is conducted. The main focus is to accelerate the experimental
part of the climate research using the cloud computing
Infrastructure which will lead to faster results generation. Climate
change research is receiving a lot of interest as the climate change
phenomena is expected to have a direct as well as an indirect impact on human
life. However, the amount of computational resources required to conduct such
research in a useful and practical manner is very high. This work aims at
accelerating the climate changes related research by exploiting the
seemingly limitless cloud computing resources. This will help in
faster results generation and accurately building climate models in
reasonable time. Also, we are planning to have a cloud based portal for climate
researchers who are not computing experts [1]. For the experiments and analysis, we use time
series functions from different applications including R-Package-forecast and
WEKA time series. Some of the time series methods are: ARIMA, ar, HoltWinters and StructTS. The
initial analysis shows that ARIMA can be the best choice for our data and forecasting. Autoregressive
Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) time series algorithms or models include an explicit statistical model.
This allows for non-zero autocorrelations
It can handle irregular components of time series.
in the irregular component. ARIMA models are defined for stationary time series. Some
preprocessing methods are used to make a time series stationary. An example of
those is the function (diff) in R-Package [2].
2NC
 2NC Read First
International engagement on the cloud is key to solve
climate change - projects for smart cities, environmental
monitoring, and energy management
EUBCF 4-13-16 (European-Brazilian collaborative projects together to
innovate the Cloud Computing sector EU-Brazil Cloud Forum is the center on
cloud computing collaboration between Europe and Brazil, especially over
climate topics, and is working to widen its database of collaboration stories in
both the EU and Brazil, to map researchers and projects and deliver a better
understanding of the status of ICT research in the two regions. April 13,
2016, http://eubrasilcloudforum.eu/eu-brazil-cloud-research-initiatives - LK)
At the meeting we discovered once more that the cloud computing landscape is very active between the
two regions. EUBrazilCloudConnect project (www.eubrazilcloudconnect.eu, 2014-2016) made available, to
of cloud computing tools and a programming
different communities of scientists, a set
models to help their research on Vascular Simulation, Leishmaniasis, Climate Change and
Biodiversity, while fostering EU-Brazil international coop eration in distributed
computing infrastructures. The FIBRE project (http://fibre.org.br, 2018) created a platform for
experimentation and education on computer networks, for the academic community benefit. Thanks
to portability of data, it will be now integrated to major worldwide
infrastructures. Smart cities, Energy, Security, Emergency management: thats where
EU-Brazil IT research is currently working. Other projects were invited to join the table which
have just begun but have clear objectives in mind. Like the EUBRA-BIGSEA project (http://www.eubra-
bigsea.eu, 2016-2018), which addresses advanced QoS cloud, capturing, federating and annotation of
The goal is to transfer this
large volumes of data, with special focus on security and privacy.
technology to a real user scenario with high social and business impact,
namely on smart cities. Or the FUTEBOL project (www.ict-futebol.org.br 2016-2018) which aims to
find the convergence point between optical and wireless networks. The goals are not only to create these
facilities in Europe and Brazil, but also to showcase experiments, have new partners using FUTEBOL
research infrastructure, attend ETSI technical committee meetings and liaise with telecom operators.
Based on computer power and energy, HPC4E (https://hpc4e.eu/ 2016-2018) focuses on
high performance computing, with applications on atmosphere, biomass and
geophysics energies. It will benefit the hydrocarbon, biofuels and wind farm
sectors. The SecureCloud project (http://www.securecloudproject.eu/, 2016-2018) will
develop new services for cloud computing users , applications for industrial partners,
software for managing secure containers, transfer technology between researchers and
cloud computing companies. Finally, the Rescuer project (http://www.rescuer-project.org/ 2013-
2016) focuses on industrial areas and large-scale events to develop an interoperable computer-basis
solution to support command centres quickly in emergencies & crises through a reliable analysis of
Sustainability, energy management,
crowdsourcing information with open data.
assisted health and environment monitoring, were identified as the
most critical topics where cooperation is needed, with research gaps
and opportunities where cloud computing can have a beneficial
relevant role.
Countries are disengaging from the cloud because of US
electronic surveillance
Deibert 13 (Ronald Deibert is a professor of political science at the
University of Toronto, where he is director of the Canada Centre for Global
Security Studies and the Citizen Lab at the Munk School of Global Affairs. He
is author of Black Code: Inside the Battle for Cyberspace (Signal/McClelland
& Stewart, 2013). US surveillance will cause other countries to bypass US
web infrastructure, abandon cloud computing June 12, 2013 LK)
when it comes to communications, hes right.
As jarring as his response was, the fact of the matter is
there is no border separating Canadian from U.S.
Practically speaking,
telecommunications though thats not true the other way around. Primarily, this one-way
dependence is a product of history and economics. Canadians communications
are inextricably connected to networks south of the border and subject to the
laws and practices of the U.S. over which we, as foreigners, have no say or
control. For American citizens, the recent NSA scandal has touched off soul-searching
discussions about the legality of mass surveillance programs, whether they violate the
Fourth and Fifth Amendments of the U.S. Constitution, and whether proper oversight and
accountability exist to protect American citizens rights. Indeed, with respect to
the case of PRISM, NSAs secret set of tools used to collect data about
overseas Internet communications, some argue the program actually enhances those safeguards for
Americans because it appears that collection of company data was segregated in
such a way to limit the collection to foreign citizens. As reassuring as this
may be for Americans, for the rest of us non-Americans who enjoy our Gmail, Google Docs, and Facebook accounts, its
While cyberspace may be global, its infrastructure
definitely unsettling: Were all fair game.
most definitely is not. For example, a huge proportion of global Internet traffic
flows through networks controlled by the United States , simply because eight of 15 global
tier 1 telecommunications companies are American companies like AT&T, CenturyLink, XO Communications and,
significantly, Verizon. The social media services that many of us take for granted are also mostly provided by giants
headquartered in the United States, like Google, Facebook, Yahoo! and Twitter. All of these companies are subject to U.S.
law, including the provisions of the U.S. Patriot Act, no matter where their services are offered or their servers located.
Having the worlds Internet traffic routed through the U.S. and having those
companies under its jurisdiction give U.S. national security agencies an
enormous home-field advantage that few other countries enjoy. But there
are unintended consequences of the NSA scandal that will undermine U.S.
foreign policy interests in particular, the Internet Freedom agenda
espoused by the U.S. State Department and its allies. The revelations that
have emerged will undoubtedly trigger a reaction abroad as
policymakers and ordinary users realize the huge disadvantages of
their dependence on U.S.-controlled networks in social media, cloud
computing, and telecommunications, and of the formidable resources that are
deployed by U.S. national security agencies to mine and monitor those
networks. For example, in 2012, Norwegian lawmakers debated a ban on the use by
public officials of Googles and Microsofts cloud computing services. Although
shelved temporarily, this type of debate will almost certainly be resurrected and
spread throughout Europe and other regions as the full scope of U.S.-
based foreign directed wiretapping and metadata collection sinks in.
Already we can see regional traffic to the United States from Asia, Africa and
even Latin America gradually declining, a trend that is almost certainly going
to accelerate as those regions ramp up regional network exchange points and
local services to minimize dependence on networks under U.S. control. Many of
the countries in the Southern Hemisphere are failed or fragile states; many of them are authoritarian or autocratic
regimes. No doubt the elites in those regimes will use the excuse of security to adopt more
stringent state controls over the Internet in their jurisdictions and support local
versions of popular social media companies over which they can exact their own nationalized
controls a trend that began prior to the NSA revelations but which now
has additional rhetorical support. In the age of Big Data, the revelations
about NSAs intelligence-gathering programs touched many nerves . The issue
of surveillance wont go away, and Americans will need to figure out the
appropriate safeguards for liberty in their democracy. Its an important debate,
but one that doesnt include us foreigners that now make up the vast majority of the
Internet users. Americans would do well to consider the international
implications of their domestic policies before they come home to
bite them.
 Cloud Solves Climate Change globally
International engagement on the cloud is key to solve
climate change - projects for smart cities, environmental
monitoring, and energy management
EUBCF 4-13-16 (European-Brazilian collaborative projects together to
innovate the Cloud Computing sector EU-Brazil Cloud Forum is the center on
cloud computing collaboration between Europe and Brazil, especially over
climate topics, and is working to widen its database of collaboration stories in
both the EU and Brazil, to map researchers and projects and deliver a better
understanding of the status of ICT research in the two regions. April 13,
2016, http://eubrasilcloudforum.eu/eu-brazil-cloud-research-initiatives - LK)
At the meeting we discovered once more that the cloud computing landscape is very active between the
two regions. EUBrazilCloudConnect project (www.eubrazilcloudconnect.eu, 2014-2016) made available, to
of cloud computing tools and a programming
different communities of scientists, a set
models to help their research on Vascular Simulation, Leishmaniasis, Climate Change and
Biodiversity, while fostering EU-Brazil international coop eration in distributed
computing infrastructures. The FIBRE project (http://fibre.org.br, 2018) created a platform for
experimentation and education on computer networks, for the academic community benefit. Thanks
to portability of data, it will be now integrated to major worldwide
infrastructures. Smart cities, Energy, Security, Emergency management: thats where
EU-Brazil IT research is currently working. Other projects were invited to join the table which
have just begun but have clear objectives in mind. Like the EUBRA-BIGSEA project (http://www.eubra-
bigsea.eu, 2016-2018), which addresses advanced QoS cloud, capturing, federating and annotation of
The goal is to transfer this
large volumes of data, with special focus on security and privacy.
technology to a real user scenario with high social and business impact,
namely on smart cities. Or the FUTEBOL project (www.ict-futebol.org.br 2016-2018) which aims to
find the convergence point between optical and wireless networks. The goals are not only to create these
facilities in Europe and Brazil, but also to showcase experiments, have new partners using FUTEBOL
research infrastructure, attend ETSI technical committee meetings and liaise with telecom operators.
Based on computer power and energy, HPC4E (https://hpc4e.eu/ 2016-2018) focuses on
high performance computing, with applications on atmosphere, biomass and
geophysics energies. It will benefit the hydrocarbon, biofuels and wind farm
sectors. The SecureCloud project (http://www.securecloudproject.eu/, 2016-2018) will
develop new services for cloud computing users , applications for industrial partners,
software for managing secure containers, transfer technology between researchers and
cloud computing companies. Finally, the Rescuer project (http://www.rescuer-project.org/ 2013-
2016) focuses on industrial areas and large-scale events to develop an interoperable computer-basis
solution to support command centres quickly in emergencies & crises through a reliable analysis of
Sustainability, energy management,
crowdsourcing information with open data.
assisted health and environment monitoring, were identified as the
most critical topics where cooperation is needed, with research gaps
and opportunities where cloud computing can have a beneficial
relevant role.
International free access to the cloud computing sector is
uniquely key to solving climate change in China and India
Kshetri 10 (Cloud Computing in Developing Economies IEEE: Institute of
Electrical and Electronics Engineers; Nir Kshetri is a professor in the Bryan
School at UNC Greensboro, and an expert in cyber crime and cyber security.
One of the first scholars to investigate cybercrime from a business angle,
Kshetri regularly speaks to industry groups on ways to protect assets stored
in the cloud. Kshetri is the author of The Global Cybercrime Industry:
Economic, Institutional and Strategic Perspectives. October, 2010, PDF
accessed at https://libres.uncg.edu/ir/uncg/f/N_Kshetri_Cloud_2010.pdf - LK)
Universities in China, Qatar, and Turkey are among the 17 educational institutions worldwide participating in the IBM Cloud Academy, which allows access to a range of

Chinese universities can access a supercomputer to analyze data

educational resources. In addition,

on disease-spread patterns and climate changes . Likewise, Indian

universities are banking on the cloud to develop innovative research and education
activities. The Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur, and other academic institutions have also adopted the cloud. Although less well known in the global IT map,
Vietnam has recently come into the limelight due to its contributions to development of the cloud, especially in e-education. Vietnamese government institutions and
universities use the cloud to develop education programs. Vietnam National University (VNU) has established a cloud platform. IBM and VNU have signed a memorandum
of understanding about using the cloud to build IT skills. E-health. Another visible application of the cloud is in healthcare. India's ICICI Bank's insurance arm has used
Zoho's Web-based applications to develop services such as personalized insurance for patients with diabetes. The company adjusts premiums based on how well policy-
holders stick to a fitness plan. 1 Likewise, in May 2009, IBM opened a Healthcare Industry Solution Lab in Beijing. The lab will work with hospitals and rural medical
cooperatives. The Guang Dong Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine has implemented a suite of healthcare data-sharing and analytics technologies, known as Clinical
and Health Records Analytics and Sharing. CHAS combines input from traditional Chinese medicine and modern Western medicine. Hospitals use CHAS to share electronic
medical records (EMRs) incorporating this data across the hospital network. E-commerce, e-business, and supply chain. Yet another major application of the cloud has
been in ecommerce and supply-chain management. In China, IBM's pilot project Yun (Chinese for "cloud") lets businesses select and implement cloud services. The
platform dynamically allocates storage, server, and network resources without human input. The Wang Fu Jing department store, one of China's largest retailers with more
than 10 million customers, has deployed cloud computing in supply-chain management, which it uses to share information with its network of retail stores and implement
business-to-business e-commerce. In Korea, banking, telecommunications, and IT hosting services use the cloud; while in South Africa, Nedbank is automating its
business processes through the cloud. Emerging application areas. Emerging application areas in developing countries include e-government, eenvironment, and
telecommuting. Vietnam's Ministries of Education and Training, Science and Technology, and Information and Communications have jointly developed cloud-based

In China, scientists have access

academic programs that offer computing courses, free software tools, and business case studies.

to a supercomputer that lets them analyze climate change data. In West Africa, the UK's

Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research is negotiating with

Amazon to sponsor a researcher for free access to cloud services.

Strong cloud computing is essential to effective climate

change adaptation strategies
Li et al 15 (Zhenlong Li,1 Chaowei Yang,1,* Baoxuan Jin,1,2 Manzhu Yu,1
Kai Liu,1 Min Sun,1 and Matthew Zhan1,3, 1NSF Spatiotemporal Innovation
Center, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States of America
2Yunnan Provincial Geomatics Center, Yunnan Bureau of Surveying, Mapping,
and GeoInformation, Kunming,Yunnan, China 3Department of Computer
Science, University of TexasAustin, Austin, Texas, United States of America
University of Vigo, SPAIN, "Enabling Big Geoscience Data Analytics with a
Cloud-Based, MapReduce-Enabled and Service-Oriented Workflow
Framework," http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4351198/)
Geoscience observations and model simulations are generating vast amounts
of multi-dimensional data. Effectively analyzing these data are essential for
geoscience studies. However, the tasks are challenging for geoscientists because processing the massive

amount of data is both computing and data intensive in that data analytics requires complex procedures and

multiple tools. To tackle these challenges , a scientific workflow framework is proposed for big geoscience data analytics.
In this framework techniques are proposed by leveraging cloud computing , MapReduce,
and Service Oriented Architecture (SOA). Specifically, HBase is adopted for storing and managing big geoscience data across distributed
computers. MapReduce-based algorithm framework is developed to support parallel processing of geoscience data. And service-oriented
workflow architecture is built for supporting on-demand complex data analytics in the cloud environment. A proof-of-concept prototype tests

the performance of the framework. Results show that this innovative framework significantly
improves the efficiency of big geoscience data analytics by reducing the
data processing time as well as simplifying data analytical procedures for
geoscientists. Go to: Introduction Geoscience data are a core component driving geoscience advancement [1]. Understanding

the Earth as a system requires a combination of observational data recorded by

sensors and simulation data produced by numerical models [2]. Over the past half century humans capability to explore the
Earth system has been enhanced with the emergence of new computing, sensor and information technologies [3]. While the technological
advancements accelerate collecting, simulating and sharing geoscience data, they also produce Big Data for geosciences from at least two
aspects. First, massive amounts of multi-dimensional data recording various physical phenomena are taken by the sensors across the globe,
and these data are accumulated rapidly with a daily increase rate of terabytes to petabytes [4]. For example the meteorological satellite
Himawari-9 collects 3 terabytes data from space every day [5]. Second, supercomputers enable geoscientists to simulate Earth phenomena
with finer spatiotemporal resolution and greater space and time coverage, producing large amounts of simulated geoscience data.

Effectively processing and analyzing big geoscience data are

becoming critical to challenges such as climate change, natural disasters,
diseases and other emergencies. However, the ever growing big geoscience
data exceed the capacity of computing and data management technologies [6].
This is particularly true in climate science, which normally produces hundreds of terabytes of data
in model simulations [2,7]. In this paper, we first take big climate data analytics as a case study to exemplify three challenges in big
geoscience data processing and analyzing and then demonstrate how our proposed solution could address these challenges. 1.1 A Study Case:

Climate change is one of the biggest contemporary concerns

Climate Model Sensitivity

for humankind due to its broad impacts on society and ecosystems worldwide [8]. Information about
future climate is critical for decision makers , such as agriculture
planning, emergency preparedness, political negotiations and intelligence [9].
However, a major problem the decision makers face is that different climate

models produce different projected climate scenarios due to unknown model uncertainties. Testing
the sensitivity of input parameters of a climate model is a standard modeling practice for determining the model uncertainties [10]. To do this,
perturbed physics ensembles (PPEs) run a model hundreds or thousands of times with different model input parameters, followed by analyses
of the model output and input to identify which parameter is more sensitive to simulated climate changes (diagnostic). Climate@Home
(http://climateathome.com/climate@home) is a project initiated by NASA to advance climate modeling studies [11]. In this project to study the
sensitivity of ModelE (http://www.giss.nasa.gov/tools/modelE/, global climate model developed by NASA), 300 ensemble model-runs (PPE-300)
are required for each experiment, sweeping seven atmospheric parameters in each model-run input (Table 1). The simulation period is from
December 1949 to January 1961 with a 4 x 5 spatial resolution and a monthly time resolution. Each model run generates 10 gigabytes data
in four dimensions (3D space and 1D time) with 336 climatic variables and totally three terabytes of data for the PPE-300 experiment. Table 1
Table 1 Seven tested atmospheric parameters in the PPE-300 experiment. To identify which of the 336 output variables are sensitive to the
seven input parameters, the three terabytes model output is analyzed. Specifically, the following steps are taken: S1. Simulation: Run ModelE
300 times sweeping seven input parameters; S2. Preprocess: Convert model output (monthly .acc files) into NetCDF files, and combine
monthly data to reduce the file numbers; S3. Management: Store and manage the NetCDF files in a file system or database; S4. Process: For
each of the 336 variables in each of the 300 runs, calculate the annual global and 10-year mean. S5. Analysis: Conduct linear regression
analysis for each Parameter-Variable (P, V) pair (totally 336*7 pairs) using the 300 runs; and S6. Visualization: Identify and plot the variables
most affected by the parameters. 1.2 Challenges Posed by Geoscience Data Analytics Geoscience data analytics poses three computing
challenges as exemplified in the climate model sensitivity study case. C1. Big data or data intensity: Storing, managing, and processing
massive datasets are grand challenge in geosciences [12,13,51]. For example, one PPE-300 experiment produces 3 terabytes of climate data.
A scalable data management framework is critical for managing these datasets. Furthermore, geoscience data analytics need to deal with
heterogeneous data formats (e.g., array-based data, text files, and images), access distributed data sources, and share the result. Different
data access protocols (e.g., FTP, HTTP) and data service standards (e.g., WCS, WFS, and OpenDAP) are normally involved in each steps
input/output. Hence, a mechanism to encapsulate these heterogeneities is essential. C2. Computing intensity: Multi-dimensions and
heterogeneous data structures are intrinsic characteristics of geoscience data [14]. Processing and analyzing these complex big data are
computing intensive, requiring massive amounts of computing resources. In the case study, S4 is computing intensive given the terabytes of
4-D data. A parallelization-enabled algorithm is one key to accelerate these processes. Another computing intensive aspect is climate
simulation (S1), where each model-run requires 5 days to simulate a single 10-year scenario. Traditional computing cannot finish the 300
model-runs with reasonable effort and time [15]. In addition, parallelization requires more resources since processing threads are running at
the same time. Therefore, supplying adequate computing resources is another key to tackle the computing intensity challenge. C3. Procedure
complexity: Geoscience data analytics normally require complex steps with a specific sequence [16]. For example, the study case needs six
steps (S1 to S6) from data generation (simulation) to visualization. A workflow platform tailored for handling these procedures is critical for
managing, conducting and reusing the processes. In addition, conducting each step requires different tools, libraries and external processing
services. To accomplish an analytics task, geoscientists normally need to discover appropriate tools/libraries, write their own programs/scripts
and deal with Linux command lines. For example, S2 requires data format conversion tools, and S4 requires specific tools using libraries. And,

A mechanism to integrate these

for S5 and S6, scientists need to program using R script or other languages.

heterogeneous tools and libraries is essential . Cloud computing is a new computing paradigm
characterized by its on-demand self-service, broad network access, resource pooling, rapid elasticity and measured service [17]. Cloud

computing provides potential computing solutions to the management,

discovery, access, and analytics of the big geoscience data for intuitive
decision support [4].
 CP Boosts Cloud
Countries are disengaging from the cloud because of US
electronic surveillance
Deibert 13 (Ronald Deibert is a professor of political science at the
University of Toronto, where he is director of the Canada Centre for Global
Security Studies and the Citizen Lab at the Munk School of Global Affairs. He
is author of Black Code: Inside the Battle for Cyberspace (Signal/McClelland
& Stewart, 2013). US surveillance will cause other countries to bypass US
web infrastructure, abandon cloud computing June 12, 2013 LK)
when it comes to communications, hes right.
As jarring as his response was, the fact of the matter is
Practically speaking, there is no border separating Canadian from U.S.
telecommunications though thats not true the other way around. Primarily, this one-way
dependence is a product of history and economics. Canadians communications
are inextricably connected to networks south of the border and subject to the
laws and practices of the U.S. over which we, as foreigners, have no say or
control. For American citizens, the recent NSA scandal has touched off soul-searching
discussions about the legality of mass surveillance programs, whether they violate the
Fourth and Fifth Amendments of the U.S. Constitution, and whether proper oversight and
accountability exist to protect American citizens rights. Indeed, with respect to
the case of PRISM, NSAs secret set of tools used to collect data about
overseas Internet communications, some argue the program actually enhances those safeguards for
Americans because it appears that collection of company data was segregated in
such a way to limit the collection to foreign citizens. As reassuring as this
may be for Americans, for the rest of us non-Americans who enjoy our Gmail, Google Docs, and Facebook accounts, its
While cyberspace may be global, its infrastructure
definitely unsettling: Were all fair game.
most definitely is not. For example, a huge proportion of global Internet traffic
flows through networks controlled by the United States , simply because eight of 15 global
tier 1 telecommunications companies are American companies like AT&T, CenturyLink, XO Communications and,
significantly, Verizon. The social media services that many of us take for granted are also mostly provided by giants
headquartered in the United States, like Google, Facebook, Yahoo! and Twitter. All of these companies are subject to U.S.
law, including the provisions of the U.S. Patriot Act, no matter where their services are offered or their servers located.
Having the worlds Internet traffic routed through the U.S. and having those
companies under its jurisdiction give U.S. national security agencies an
enormous home-field advantage that few other countries enjoy. But there
are unintended consequences of the NSA scandal that will undermine U.S.
foreign policy interests in particular, the Internet Freedom agenda
espoused by the U.S. State Department and its allies. The revelations that
have emerged will undoubtedly trigger a reaction abroad as
policymakers and ordinary users realize the huge disadvantages of
their dependence on U.S.-controlled networks in social media, cloud
computing, and telecommunications, and of the formidable resources that are
deployed by U.S. national security agencies to mine and monitor those
networks. For example, in 2012, Norwegian lawmakers debated a ban on the use by
public officials of Googles and Microsofts cloud computing services. Although
shelved temporarily, this type of debate will almost certainly be resurrected and
spread throughout Europe and other regions as the full scope of U.S.-
based foreign directed wiretapping and metadata collection sinks in.
Already we can see regional traffic to the United States from Asia, Africa and
even Latin America gradually declining, a trend that is almost certainly going
to accelerate as those regions ramp up regional network exchange points and
local services to minimize dependence on networks under U.S. control. Many of
the countries in the Southern Hemisphere are failed or fragile states; many of them are authoritarian or autocratic
regimes. No doubt the elites in those regimes will use the excuse of security to adopt more
stringent state controls over the Internet in their jurisdictions and support local
versions of popular social media companies over which they can exact their own nationalized
controls a trend that began prior to the NSA revelations but which now
has additional rhetorical support. In the age of Big Data, the revelations
about NSAs intelligence-gathering programs touched many nerves . The issue
of surveillance wont go away, and Americans will need to figure out the
appropriate safeguards for liberty in their democracy. Its an important debate,
but one that doesnt include us foreigners that now make up the vast majority of the
Internet users. Americans would do well to consider the international
implications of their domestic policies before they come home to
bite them.

CP key to protect data on the cloud, squo fails

Gutwirth, et al., 14 (Reloading Data Protection. Multidisciplinary Insights and
Contemporary Challenges Serge Gutwirth is a professor of human rights, legal theory, comparative law
and legal research at the Faculty of Law and Criminology of the Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB), where he
studied law, criminology and also obtained a post-graduate degree in technology and science studies. Until
2010 he also held a part-time position of lecturer at the Faculty of law of the Erasmus University Rotterdam
where he taught philosophy of law. He has been a visiting scientist and/or lecturer at the University of
Sydney, the University of Georgia (Athens, USA), the University of Ghana (Accra) and at the Facults
Universitaires Saint-Louis (Brussels). Currently, Serge Gutwirth is particularly interested both in technical

legal issues raised by technology (particularly in the field of data protection and privacy) and in more
generic issues related to the articulation of law, sciences, technologies and societies.He is the director of
the research center Law, Science, Technology & Society (LSTS) at the Vrije Universiteit Brussel. Published
2014, accessed on google e-books at https://books.google.com/books?
id=uI3HBAAAQBAJ&pg=PA17&lpg=PA17&dq=%22problems%22+
%22cloud+computing+sector
%22&source=bl&ots=DQUm8PXUXW&sig=yiE2al8PrdWE7E42hEFJ7ob-
ZCY&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjktPXsgezNAhWMExoKHYPKB9EQ6AEIQjAD#v=onepage&q=
%22problems%22%20%22cloud%20computing%20sector%22&f=false - LK)

problems related to data protection in the Internet need a

First of all,
special attention of the regulators. Problems concerning data protection
in social networks, cookies, behavioral advertising, cloud computing as well as problems
related to privacy on smart phones demand a specific approach. It is clear that
these are all transnational problems, and as such they need a supranational response.
Nonetheless, it is important to address these questions , in order to solve the
problems and demands in the national level. The proposed law 2126 of 2011,
commonly referred to as the Civil Framework for the Internet, deals among many issues, also with data
protection on the Internet. It aims to establish a set of rights to all Internet users in Brazil and announces
asguiding principles both the protection of privacy and protection of
personal data, under the terms of the law. In this context , both the Civil
Framework for the Internet and the Data Protection draft bill are certainly
important steps in this direction, although they dont address all these
specific questions, regarding online privacy.
Econ Net Benefit
 2NC Module
Backdoors are causing a huge decline in the cloud
computing sector now reform prevents a massive US
economic collapse
Greene 15 (Samantha Greene - joined ITIF (Information Technology and
Innovation Foundation) as Communications Director. Previously, she spent
five years at The Fratelli Group, a DC-based public affairs firm focused on
policy advocacy campaigns. She has a Masters of Public Policy from
Georgetown University and a Bachelors of Arts in Communication from the
University of Pennsylvania Tarnished by Association with Ongoing US
Surveillance Policies, Tech Sector Likely to Lose More Than $35 Billion in
Sales 6/9/15 - http://www.itif.org/publications/2015/06/09/tarnished-
association-ongoing-us-surveillance-policies-tech-sector-likely) TK

WASHINGTONShortly after Edward Snowden revealed extensive U.S. government surveillance, the Information Technology and
Innovation Foundation (ITIF) estimated that the U.S. tech sector could lose
between $21.5 billion and $35 billion over three years if U.S. cloud computing
providers saw even a modest drop in their foreign market share due to
concerns about electronic surveillance. Since then, it has become clear
that the U.S. tech industry as a whole, not just the cloud computing
sector, has under-performed as a result of these spying concerns. Therefore,
the total economic impact of U.S. surveillance practices will likely far exceed
ITIFs initial $35 billion estimate. ITIF is releasing a new report today, Beyond the
USA Freedom Act: How U.S. Surveillance Still Subverts U.S.
Competitiveness, which catalogues a wide range of specific examples of
the economic harm that has been done to U.S. businesses as result of
unreformed government surveillance practices, and it proposes a series of reforms designed to improve security,
protect transparency, and increase cooperation and accountability in the global technology ecosystem. Foreign customers are

increasingly shunning U.S. companies, and governments around the world

are using U.S. surveillance as an excuse to enact a new wave of protectionist
policies. This is bad for U.S. companies, U.S. workers, and the U.S.
economy as a whole, notes Daniel Castro, Vice President of ITIF and co-author of the report. Now that Congress
has passed the USA Freedom Act, it is imperative that it turn its
attention to reforming the digital surveillance activities that
continue to impact our nations competitiveness. The report
recommends policymakers level the playing field for the U.S. tech sector by
implementing a series of reforms such as increasing the transparency of its surveillance practices,
opposing government efforts to weaken encryption or introduce
backdoors in software, and strengthening its mutual legal assistance
treaties with other nations. In addition, it should combat anti-competitive practices by other nations through the establishment of
international legal standards for government access to data and pushing for trade agreements to include bans on digital protectionism. Over the last few years, the

U.S. governments failure to meaningfully reform its surveillance practices

has taken a serious economic toll on the U.S. tech sector and the total cost
continues to grow each day, adds Castro. Other countries are scrambling to take
advantage of this opportunity, and if policymakers fail to address this
issue head on, these losses will be locked in permanently. Ultimately,
Congress must decide how many American jobs it is willing to sacrifice in
pursuit of intelligence gathering and find a better balance between economic
interests and national security interests.

Economic decline causes nuclear war studies prove

Royal 10 (Jedediah, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense,
2010, Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises, in Economics of War
and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215)

Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the

likelihood of external conflict. Political science literature has contributed a moderate
degree of attention to the impact of economic decline and the security and defence behaviour of
interdependent stales. Research in this vein has been considered at systemic, dyadic and national levels.
Several notable contributions follow. First, on the systemic level. Pollins (20081 advances Modclski and
rhythms in the global
Thompson's (1996) work on leadership cycle theory, finding that
economy are associated with the rise and fall of a pre-eminent
power and the often bloody transition from one pre-eminent leader to
the next. As such, exogenous shocks such as economic crises could
usher in a redistribution of relative power (see also Gilpin. 19SJ) that leads
to uncertainty about power balances, increasing the risk of
miscalculation (Fcaron. 1995). Alternatively, even a relatively certain
redistribution of power could lead to a permissive environment for
conflict as a rising power may seek to challenge a declining power
(Werner. 1999). Separately. Pollins (1996) also shows that global economic cycles combined with parallel
leadership cycles impact the likelihood of conflict among major, medium and small powers, although he
suggests that the causes and connections between global economic conditions and security conditions
remain unknown. Second, on a dyadic level. Copeland's (1996. 2000) theory of trade expectations
suggests that 'future expectation of trade' is a significant variable in understanding economic conditions
and security behaviour of states. He argues that interdependent states arc likely to gain pacific benefits
if the
from trade so long as they have an optimistic view of future trade relations. However,
expectations of future trade decline, particularly for difficult to
replace items such as energy resources, the likelihood for conflict
increases, as states will be inclined to use force to gain access to those
resources. Crises could potentially be the trigger for decreased trade expectations either on its own
or because it triggers protectionist moves by interdependent states.4Third, others have
considered the link between economic decline and external armed
conflict at a national level. Mom berg and Hess (2002) find a strong
correlation between internal conflict and external conflict ,
particularly during periods of economic downturn. They write. The
linkage, between internal and external conflict and prosperity are
strong and mutually reinforcing. Economic conflict lends to spawn
internal conflict, which in turn returns the favour . Moreover, the
presence of a recession tends to amplify the extent to which
international and external conflicts self-reinforce each other (Hlomhen? &
Hess. 2(102. p. X9>Economic decline has also been linked with an
increase[s] in the likelihood of terrorism (Blombcrg. Hess. &Wee ra pan a, 2004).
which has the capacity to spill[s] across borders and lead to external
tensions. Furthermore, crises generally reduce the popularity of a sitting
government. "Diversionary theory" suggests that, when facing
unpopularity arising from economic decline, sitting governments
have increased incentives to fabricate external military conflicts to
create a 'rally around the flag' effect. Wang (1996), DcRoucn (1995), and Blombcrg.
Hess, and Thacker (2006) find supporting evidence showing that economic decline and use of force arc at
least indirecti) correlated. Gelpi (1997).Miller (1999). and Kisangani and Pickering (2009) suggest that Ihe
tendency towards diversionary tactics arc greater for democratic states than autocratic states, due to the
fact that democratic leaders are generally more susceptible to being removed from office due to lack of
domestic support. DeRouen (2000) has provided evidence showing that periods of weak economic
performance in the United States, and thus weak Presidential popularity, are statistically linked lo an
economic scholarship positively
increase in the use of force. In summary, rcccni
correlates economic integration with an increase in the frequency of
economic crises, whereas political science scholarship links economic
decline with external conflictal systemic, dyadic and national levels.' This implied
connection between integration, crises and armed conflict has not featured prominently in the economic-
security debate and deserves more attention.
 Turns US-China relations

Disengagement will cause a new world war with US-China

and nuclear terrorism
Panzner 8 (Financial Armageddon: Protecting Your Future from Four
Impending Catastrophes Michael J. Panzner, (graduate of Columbia
University) 30-year veteran of the global financial markets who has worked in
New York and London for such leading companies as HSBC, Soros Funds, ABN
Amro, Dresdner Bank and J.P. Morgan Chase., He is a New York Institute of
Finance faculty member specializing in Equities, Trading, Global Capital
Markets and Technical Analysis, May 6, 2008 LK) [we do not endorse some of the
security rhetoric in this card]

The rise in isolationism and protectionism will bring about ever more heated
arguments and dangerous confrontations over shared sources of oil, gas, and other key
commodities, as well as factors of production that must, out of necessity be acquired from less-than-
friendly nations. Whether involving raw materials use in strategic industries or basic
necessities such as food, water, and energy, efforts to secure adequate
supplies will take increasing precedence in a world where demand seems
constantly out of kilter with supply. Disputes over the misuse, overuse, and pollution of the
environment and natural resources will become more commonplace. Around the world, such
tensions will give rise to full-scale military encounters, often with
minimal provocation. In some other instances, economic conditions will serve
as a convenient pretext for conflicts that stem from cultural and religious
differences. Alternatively, nations may look to divert attention away from
domestic problems by channeling frustration and populist sentiment towards
other countries and cultures. Enabled by cheap technology and the waning
threat of American retribution, terrorist groups will likely boost the
frequency and scale of their horrifying attacks, bringing the threat
of random violence to a whole new level. Turbulent conditions will
encourage aggressive saber rattling and interdictions by rogue nations running amok.
Age-old clashes will also take on a new, more heated sense or urgency. China
will likely assume an increasingly belligerent posture towards Taiwan, while
Iran may embark on overt colonization of its neighbors in the Mideast. Israel, for its part, may
look to draw a dwindling list of allies from around the world into a growing
number of conflicts. Some observers, like John Mearsheimer, a political scientist at
the University of Chicago, have even speculated that an intense
confrontation between the United States and China is inevitable
at some point. More than a few disputes will turn out to be almost wholly ideological. Growing
cultural and religious differences will be transformed from wars of words to battles soaked
in blood. Long-simmering resentments could also degenerate quickly, spurring the basest of
human instincts and triggering genocidal acts. Terrorists employing
biological or nuclear weapons will vie with conventional forces using jets, cruise
missiles, and bunker-busting bombs to cause widespread destruction. Many will
interpret stepped-up conflicts between Muslims and Western societies as the
beginnings of a new world war. As events unfold, unsettling geopolitical tensions and the
continuing economic collapse will weigh heavily on the familiar routines of everyday life, forcing many
Americans to wonder when, or if, it will ever end.
 AT: Links to DA K2 Containment
Cloud computing is key to broader tech innovation
Kehl et al 14 (Danielle Kehl is a Policy Analyst at New Americas Open Technology Institute (OTI).
Kevin Bankston is the Policy Director at OTI, Robyn Greene is a Policy Counsel at OTI, and Robert Morgus is
a Research Associate at OTI)
(New Americas Open Technology Institute Policy Paper, Surveillance Costs: The NSAs Impact on the
Economy, Internet Freedom & Cybersecurity, July 2014)
It appears that little consideration was given over the past decade to the potential economic
repercussions if the NSAs secret pro- grams were revealed.38 This failure was acutely demonstrated
by the Obama Administrations initial focus on reassuring the public that its programs primarily affect
non-Americans, even though non-Americans are also heavy users of American companies products.
Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg put a fine point on the issue, saying that the government blew it in
its response to the scandal. He noted sarcasti- cally: The government response was, Oh dont worry,
were not spying on any Americans. Oh, wonderful: thats really helpful to companies [like Facebook]
trying to serve people around the world, and thats really going to inspire confidence in American
internet companies.39 As Zuckerbergs comments reflect, certain parts of the American technology
industry are particularly vulnerable to international backlash since growth is heavily dependent on
foreign markets. For example, the U.S. cloud computing industry has grown from an
estimated $46 billion in 2008 to $150 billion in 2014, with nearly 50 percent of worldwide cloud-
computing revenues com- ing from the U.S.40 R Street Institutes January 2014 policy study
new products and services that rely on cloud
concluded that in the next few years,
computing will become increasingly pervasive. Cloud computing is also
the root of development for the emerging generation of Web-based applications
home security, out- patient care, mobile payment, distance learning, efficient energy use and
it is a research area where
driverless cars, writes R Streets Steven Titch in the study. And
the United States is an undisputed leader .41 This trajectory may be
dramatically altered, however, as a consequence of the NSAs surveillance
programs.

Tech industry key to econ Wall Street rally in stocks

proves aids against China key to sustained stock
market
Renick 9-3-15 (Wall Street Rallies Amid Global Respite Bloomberg News
via the Miami Herald, Oliver Renick (graduate of Cornell University) is a
reporter for Bloomberg Business News in New York, article accessed from the
Washington Post at http://washpost.bloomberg.com/Story?docId=1376-
NU1A386JTSER01-5CR613UMTUO3K5T3VAUFS21IB5 - LK)
Stocks surged as a tech rally helped stage a rebound that propelled
the Dow nearly 300 points and pushed the Nasdaq up 2.5 percent . U.S.
stocks rallied, after the Standard & Poors 500 Index posted one of its
steepest drops this year, amid a respite from a global equities selloff. After pacing
the rout yesterday, technology shares led the rebound as Apple Inc. and
Microsoft Corp. rose more than 3.6 percent. H&R Block Inc. jumped 7.5
percent after announcing a stock buyback plan. McDonalds Corp. and Home Depot
Inc. added at least 2.7 percent. A gauge of U.S. airlines rallied the most in more
than seven months. Energy shares erased a decline along with oil, with crude closing higher
after lurching between gains and losses. A surge in the final minutes pushed the S&P 500
up 1.8 percent to 1,948.86 at 4 p.m. in New York, closing at the session high after
the gauge fell 3.8 percent over the previous two sessions. Equities jumped in early
trading and then trimmed their gains by more than half before an afternoon rebound along with oil prices. The Dow
Jones Industrial Average added 293.03 points, or 1.8 percent, to 16,351.38.
The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 2.5 percent . Chinas going to be closed
the next few days and that means there wont be this negative lead-in to
markets in the morning so that will be a nice reprieve, said Stephen Carl, principal and
head equity trader at Williams Capital Group LP. The date for a potential rate raise is certainly going back and forth and
with the recent volatility in the market and situation overseas, people dont have much conviction on when it will be.
 Backdoors on Cloud -> Econ Decline
Surveillance backdoors on the cloud computing sector are
causing a massive recession disengagement, billion
dollar loses, and crushed innovation
Waits 14 (Julian Waits - President and Chief Executive Officer
forThreatTrack Security, guiding the company's growth as it traverses the
enterprise security market with threat analysis, awareness, and defense
solutions that combat advanced persistent threats (APTs), targeted attacks,
zero-day threats, and other sophisticated malware In Fog of Cyberwar, US
Tech is Caught in Crossfire 7/9/14 - http://www.darkreading.com/cloud/in-
fog-of-cyberwar-us-tech-is-caught-in-crossfire/a/d-id/1279214) TK
The escalation of state-backed cybercrime is very real, and increasingly
alarming. The situation is a national security risk and is being taken seriously by the federal government. However, the disclosure of
the USs own cyber counter-terror tactics, and the reaction from around the
world, has created a dangerous situation for the US economy, with
technology firms particularly in the crosshairs. The dangers to US businesses
are compounded by a growing number of revelations about the NSA and its
tactics. As the seriousness of the situation grows, so does the potential for ramifications in the tech industry. A recentreport in Bloomberg News revealed that
the Chinese government is already pressuring its banks to remove all high-
end IBM servers. Its also been reported in The New York Times that China wants to ban the use of Cisco products in its government-owned businesses.
The Chinese government isnt alone in its wariness of US spying -- news that
the NSA took advantage of the Heartbleed bug to gather intelligence without
disclosing it created worldwide outrage . Many would argue that the government should
be protecting businesses and its citizens, and not exploiting them for
surveillance purposes. While the disclosure of US cyber counter-terror tactics should come as no surprise -- the threat of state-backed bad actors
stealing intellectual property or worse is a critical one -- the government has put US businesses in

harms way. In November Facebook, Google, Apple, Yahoo, Microsoft, and AOL sent a letter to Congress supporting the creation of a
privacy advocate to represent the interests of civil liberties when it comes to
the NSAs counter-terror surveillance efforts. Distrust of the US intelligence community at
home and abroad is eroding consumer confidence and hampering US
technology firms in their pursuit of global business. This could
ultimately lead to a tech recession at a time when the sector should be
showing historic and unprecedented growth . The cloud of cyberwar This scenario is not far-
fetched. Dean Garfield, president and CEO of the Information Technology Industry Council, said that tens of
billions of dollarsare at stake for US cloud providers, and many US tech vendors
are already hearing complaints. He appealed to the US House of Representatives Judiciary Committee for greater
transparency over surveillance and s tronger oversight, including a civil liberties advocate at the US Foreign Intelligence
Surveillance Court. "Made in the USA" is no longer a badge of honor, but a basis for questioning the integrity and the
Many countries are using the NSA's
independence of US-made technology, Garfield said.

disclosures as a basis for accelerating their policies around forced localization

and protectionism. This protectionism can be thought of as a "Balkanization"
of the Internet, and it is incredibly dangerous not just to US technology
interests, but to broader business interests. Cloud computing is an
advancement that no one wants to walk away from, but if more
countries take the protectionist stance that Germany has taken,
which includes strict rules that govern where data needs to be
physically located, it will become both a technological nightmare and
financial disaster to provide services that meet current levels. While it is
unlikely that every country in the world will create specific, unique, and stringent rules about how and where data is stored, it becomes a major issue if even a few elect to
follow that path. A US technology vendor trying to do business in Germany will, in many cases, now need to have a data center in country, hire employees there to
manage it, and comply with a host of regulations. Doing so is complex and creates unnecessary challenges to companies that, often times, are still in formative stages.

its incredibly cost-prohibitive. This arrangement is helpful to no one -- it hurts businesses,

More importantly,

and it slows the pace of innovation, especially in protectionist countries.

US surveillance backdoors are massively hurting the cloud

computing industry causing a huge economic fallout and
loss of engagement
Danielle Kehl et al 14, Policy Analyst at New Americas Open Technology
Institute (OTI). Kevin Bankston is the Policy Director at OTI, Robyn Greene is a
Policy Counsel at OTI, and Robert Morgus is a Research Associate at OTI, New
Americas Open Technology Institute Policy Paper, Surveillance Costs: The
NSAs Impact on the Economy, Internet Freedom & Cybersecurity
https://www.newamerica.org/downloads/Surveilance_Costs_Final.pdf BFH
Trust in American businesses has taken a significant hit since the initial
reports on the PRISM program suggested that the NSA was directly tapping into the servers of nine U.S.
companies to obtain customer data for national security investigations.28 The Washington Posts original
story on the program provoked an uproar in the media and prompted the CEOs of several major companies
to deny knowledge of or participation in the program.29 The exact nature of the requests made through
the PRISM program was later clarified,30 but the public attention on the relationship
between American companies and the NSA still created a significant trust
gap, especially in industries where users entrust companies to store sensitive personal and commercial
data. Last years national security leaks have also had a commercial and financial
impact on American technology companies that have provided these
records, noted Representative Bob Goodlatte, a prominent Republican leader and Chairman of the
House Judiciary Committee, in May 2014. They have experienced backlash from both
American and foreign consumers and have had their competitive standing in
the global marketplace damaged.31 Given heightened concerns about the NSAs ability to
access data stored by U.S. companies, it is no surprise that American companies offering
cloud computing and webhosting services are among those experiencing the
most acute economic fallout from NSA surveillance. Within just a few weeks of the
first disclosures, reports began to emerge that American cloud computing companies like
Dropbox and Amazon Web Services were starting to lose business to overseas
competitors.32 The CEO of Artmotion, one of Switzerlands largest offshore hosting II. Direct Economic
Costs to American Companies Last years national security leaks have also had a
commercial and financial impact on American technology companies that
have provided these records. They have experienced backlash from both American and foreign
consumers and have had their competitive standing in the global marketplace damaged. -Rep. Bob
Goodlatte, Chairman of the House Judiciary Committee 8 Surveillance Costs: The NSAs Impact on the
Economy, Internet Freedom & Cybersecurity providers, reported in July 2013 that his company had seen a
45 percent jump in revenue since the first leaks,33 an early sign that the countrys perceived neutrality
and strong data and privacy protections34 could potentially be turned into a serious competitive
advantage.35 Foreign companies are clearly poised to benefit from growing fears about the security
ramifications of keeping data in the United States. In a survey of 300 British and Canadian businesses
25 percent of respondents indicated that they
released by PEER 1 in January 2014,36
were moving data outside of the U.S. as a result of the NSA revelations . An
overwhelming number of the companies surveyed indicated that security and data privacy were their top
they want to know exactly where their data is
concerns, with 81 percent stating that
being hosted. Seventy percent were even willing to sacrifice performance in
order to ensure that their data was protected.37 It appears that little consideration was
given over the past decade to the potential economic repercussions if the NSAs secret programs were
revealed.38 This failure was acutely demonstrated by the Obama Administrations initial focus on
reassuring the public that its programs primarily affect non-Americans, even though non-Americans are
also heavy users of American companies products. Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg put a fine point on the
issue, saying that the government blew it in its response to the scandal. He noted sarcastically: The
government response was, Oh dont worry, were not spying on any Americans. Oh, wonderful: thats
really helpful to companies [like Facebook] trying to serve people around the world, and thats really going
to inspire confidence in American internet companies.39 As Zuckerbergs comments reflect, certain parts
of the American technology industry are particularly vulnerable to international backlash since growth is
heavily dependent on foreign markets. For example, the U.S. cloud computing industry has grown from an
estimated $46 billion in 2008 to $150 billion in 2014, with nearly 50 percent of worldwide cloud-computing
revenues coming from the U.S.40 R Street Institutes January 2014 policy study concluded that in the next
few years, new products and services that rely on cloud computing will become increasingly pervasive.
Cloud computing is also the root of development for the emerging
generation of Web-based applicationshome security, outpatient care,
mobile payment, distance learning, efficient energy use and driverless cars ,
writes R Streets Steven Titch in the study. And it is a research area where the United States is an
undisputed leader.41 This trajectory may be dramatically altered, however, as a consequence of the
NSAs surveillance programs. Economic forecasts after the Snowden leaks have predicted significant,
ongoing losses for the cloud-computing industry in the next few years . An
August 2013 study by the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF) estimated that
could cost the American cloud computing
revelations about the NSAs PRISM program
industry $22 to $35 billion over the next three years.42 On the low end, the ITIF
projection suggests that U.S. cloud computing providers would lose 10
percent of the foreign market share to European or Asian competitors, totaling in about
$21.5 billion in losses; on the high-end, the $35 billion figure represents
about 20 percent of the companies foreign market share. Because the cloud
computing industry is undergoing rapid growth right nowa 2012 Gartner study predicted global spending
on cloud computing would increase by 100 percent from 2012 to 2016, compared to a 3 percent overall
growth rate in the tech industry as a whole43vendors in this sector are particularly vulnerable to shifts in
the market. Failing to recruit new customers or losing a competitive advantage due to exploitation by rival
companies in other countries can quickly lead to a dwindling market share. The ITIF study further notes
that the percentage lost to foreign competitors could go higher if foreign governments enact protectionist
trade barriers that effectively cut out U.S. providers, citing early calls from German data protection
authorities to suspend the U.S.-EU Safe Harbor program (which will be discussed at length in the next
section).44 As the R Street Policy Study highlights, Ironically, the NSA turned the competitive edge U.S.
companies have in cloud computing into a liability, especially in Europe.45 In a follow up to the ITIF study,
Forrester In a survey of 300 British and Canadian businesses released by PEER 1 in January 2014, 25
percent of respondents indicated that they were moving data outside of the U.S. as a result of the NSA
revelations. New Americas Open Technology Institute 9 Research analyst James Staten argued that the
think tanks estimates were low, suggesting that the actual figure could be as high as $180 billion over
three years.46 Staten highlighted two additional impacts not considered in the ITIF study. The first is that
U.S. customersnot just foreign companieswould also avoid US cloud providers, especially for
international and overseas business. The ITIF study predicted that American companies would retain their
domestic market share, but Staten argued that the economic blowback from the revelations would be felt
at home, too. You dont have to be a French company, for example, to be worried about the US
government snooping in the data about your French clients, he wrote.47 Moreover, the analysis
highlighted a second and far more costly impact: that foreign cloud providers, too, would lose as much
as 20 percent of overseas and domestic business because of similar spying programs conducted by other
governments. Indeed, the NSA disclosures have prompted a fundamental re-examination of the role of
intelligence services in conducting coordinated cross-border surveillance, according to a November 2013
report by Privacy International on the Five Eyes intelligence partnership between the United States, the
United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.48 Staten predicts that as the surveillance landscape
around the world becomes more clear, it could have a serious negative impact on all hosting and
outsourcing services, resulting in a 25 percent decline in the overall IT services market, or about $180
billion in losses.49 Recent reports suggest that things are, in fact, moving in the direction that analysts like
Castro and Staten suggested.50 A survey of 1,000 [Information and Communications Technology (ICT)]
decision-makers from France, Germany, Hong Kong, the UK, and the USA in February and March 2014
found that the disclosures have had a direct impact on how companies around the world think about ICT
and cloud computing in particular.51 According to the data from NTT Communications, 88 percent of
decision-makers are changing their purchasing behavior when it comes to the cloud, with the vast majority
indicating that the location of the data is very important. The results do not bode well for recruitment of
new customers, either62 percent of those currently not storing data in the cloud indicated that the
revelations have since prevented them from moving their ICT systems there. And finally, 82 percent
suggested that they agree with proposals made by German Chancellor Angela Merkel in February 2014 to
have separate data networks for Europe, which will be discussed in further detail in Part III of this report.
Providing direct evidence of this trend, Servint, a Virginia-based webhosting company, reported in June
2014 that international clients have declined by as much as half, dropping from approximately 60 percent
of its business to 30 percent since the leaks began.52 With faith in U.S. companies on the decline, foreign
companies are stepping in to take advantage of shifting public perceptions. As Georg Mascolo and Ben
Scott predicted in a joint paper published by the Wilson Center and the New America Foundation in
October 2013, Major commercial actors on both continents are preparing offensive and defensive
strategies to battle in the market for a competitive advantage drawn from Snowdens revelations.53 For
example, Runbox, a small Norwegian company that offers secure email service, reported a 34 percent
jump in customers since June 2013.54 Runbox markets itself as a safer email and webhosting provider for
both individual and commercial customers, promising that it will never disclose any user data
unauthorized, track your usage, or display any advertisements.55 Since the NSA revelations, the
company has touted its privacy-centric design and the fact that its servers are located in Norway as a
competitive advantage. Being firmly located in Norway, the Runbox email service is governed by strict
privacy regulations and is a safe alternative to American email services as well as cloud-based services
that move data across borders and jurisdictions, company representatives wrote on Frankly I think the
government blew it... The government response was, Oh dont worry, were not spying on any Americans.
Oh, wonderful: thats really helpful to companies trying to serve people around the world, and thats really
going to inspire confidence in American internet companies. -Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Facebook ,, 10
Surveillance Costs: The NSAs Impact on the Economy, Internet Freedom & Cybersecurity its blog in early
2014.56 F-Secure, a Finnish cloud storage company, similarly emphasizes the fact that its roots [are] in
Finland, where privacy is a fiercely guarded value.57 Presenting products and services as NSA-proof or
safer alternatives to American-made goods is an increasingly viable strategy for foreign companies
hoping to chip away at U.S. tech competiveness.58

Backdoors are causing a huge decline in the cloud

computing industry - costing billions and ruining
multilateral relations
Danielle Kehl et al 14, Policy Analyst at New Americas Open Technology
Institute (OTI). Kevin Bankston is the Policy Director at OTI, Robyn Greene is a
Policy Counsel at OTI, and Robert Morgus is a Research Associate at OTI, New
Americas Open Technology Institute Policy Paper, Surveillance Costs: The
NSAs Impact on the Economy, Internet Freedom & Cybersecurity
https://www.newamerica.org/downloads/Surveilance_Costs_Final.pdf BFH

the NSA
This paper has attempted to quantify and categorize a variety of the costs of
surveillance programs, demonstrating the negative impact on the U.S. and
global economy, American foreign policy interests, and the security of the
Internet itself. Our findings indicate that the actions of the National Security Agency have
already begun and will continue to cause significant damage to the interests
of the United States and the global Internet community. American
companies have reported declining sales overseas and lost
business, especially as foreign companies turn protection from NSA
spying into a competitive advantage. This erosion in trust threatens to do the
most immediate damage to the cloud computing industry, which could
lose billions of dollars in the next three to five years as a result. The rise of
proposals from foreign governments looking to implement data localization requirements or much
stronger data protection laws could also compound these losses and force changes to the architecture
In its foreign policy objectives, the United States has lost
of the global network itself.
significant credibility not only with respect to the Internet Freedom agenda,
but also in terms of broader bilateral and multilateral relations with both
friendly and adversarial nations. Revelations about the extent of NSA surveillance have
already colored a number of critical interactions with nations such as Germany and Brazil in the past
the NSA has seriously undermined Internet security in the past
year. And finally,
decade, by weakening international encryption standards, mandating the
insertion of backdoors into Internet products, stockpiling security
vulnerabilities rather than responsibly disclosing them to vendors, and
carrying out a variety of other offensive hacking operations.
 AT: Permutation
CP is mutually exclusive doesnt engage China in any
way actually solves relations without boosting Chinas
power
Perm links to the DAs

They say the CP engages China on the cloud, but it just

removes surveillance on the cloud, which incentivizes
other countries to share data on it and use it, but doesnt
engage China in any way, especially not directly
 Aff Answers
Perm do Both
CP links to DAs engages China on the cloud
Even after surveillance curtailment, cloud still declines
multiple solvency deficits to the CP, doesnt increase
transparency or strengthen agreements
Lauchlan 15 (ITIF life after NSA isnt any easier for cloud firms
Diginomica, Stuart Lauchlan is a freelance journalist and co-founder of digital
enterprise site diginomica, who has been commenting on the business cloud
and other software industry (IT) phenomena for 24
years.http://diginomica.com/2015/06/16/itif-life-after-nsa-isnt-any-easier-for-
cloud-firms/ - LK)
Those claims havent gone away despite the USA Freedom Act coming in
supposedly to reform the NSAs practices. Two years ago, the industry-funded think
tank Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF) estimated that
the NSA surveillance would cost cloud computing companies somewhere
around $21.5 billion to $35 billion. But last week it upped that figure to an
unspecified amount. Daniel Castro and Alan McQuinn, authors of a new ITIF report,
say: Since then, it has become clear that the US tech industry as a whole, not
just the cloud computing sector, has under-performed as a result of the
Snowden revelations. Therefore, the economic impact of US surveillance
practices will likely far exceed ITIFs initial $35 billion estimate. ITIF hit out at what
it sees as a lack of strong enough action by the US government to address the situation the impact of
Foreign companies have seized on these controversial
programs such as PRISM:
policies to convince their customers that keeping data at home is safer than
sending it abroad, and foreign governments have pointed to US surveillance as justification for
protectionist policies that require data to be kept within their national borders. In the most extreme cases,
such as in China, foreign governments are using fear of digital surveillance to force companies to surrender
valuable intellectual property, such as source code. In the short term, U.S. companies lose
out on contracts, and over the long term, other countries create protectionist policies that lock U.S.
businesses out of foreign markets. This not only hurts U.S. technology companies, but costs American jobs
and weakens the US trade balance. Certainly there are signs that countries around the world are
toughening up their stance on sovereignty. Russia, for instance, has passed a new law requiring all tech
firms operating within its borders to store information about their customers in servers located within the
Russian territory. The likes of Salesforce and NetSuite are building data centers in European countries in
order in part to satisfy localisation of data concerns, particularly in order to target the public sector in
countries such as the UK. To improve the prospects for US cloud providers, ITIF wants the government to:
Increase transparency about US surveillance activities both at home and
abroad. Strengthen information security by opposing any government efforts to introduce backdoors in
software or weaken encryption. Strengthen US mutual legal assistance treaties
(MLATs). Work to establish international legal standards for government
access to data. Complete trade agreements like the Trans Pacific Partnership
that ban digital protectionism, and pressure nations that seek to erect
protectionist barriers to abandon those efforts. How social firms measure up One
sign of the ongoing pressures facing US firms was the release last week of a
transparency report by Amazon. Despite running the largest public cloud
infrastructure business in the world, the firm had resisted pressure to publish
such a report. Facebook published its first report in 2013, while Google has done the same since
2010.

Businesses wont joindata centers vulnerabletheir 1NC

author
Foster 11, Pete, Pete Foster is a writer, researcher and consultant on
sustainable ICT (information and communications technology) at The
Guardian, August 11, Cloud computing a green opportunity or climate
change risk? <https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/cloud-
computing-climate-change>.
But cloud computing comes with its own issues of security and
reliability. Companies are often reluctant to trust their data and computing
to a remote supplier and climate change itself may make cloud
computing less attractive. The Foresight Programme from the UK's Government
Office for Science produces in-depth studies looking at major issues 20-80 years in the future. It
recently published a report on the International Dimensions of Climate Change that identifies a
significant vulnerability from cloud computing . As more data centres
are needed, and with the UK a relatively expensive location, more will be going
offshore, but that makes them potentially more vulnerable to climate
change impacts. The report points out that data storage facilities have already
suffered from flooding and cites the Vodafone data centre in Ikitelli,
Turkey, which was affected by flash flooding in 2009, putting a quarter of the local
network at risk. Similarly, in August 2009 the rainfall from Typhoon Morakot caused rivers to flood
in Taiwan flushing large volumes of sediment into the ocean. This led to several submarine landslides
which broke at least nine communications cables 4000m down. It disrupted the Internet and
telecommunications between Taiwan, China, Hong Kong and other parts of Southeast Asia. The study also
makes the point that over 95% of global communications traffic is handled by just one million kilometres of
undersea fibre-optic cable. Rising sea levels increase the risk of flooding of coastal cable facilities and may
also affect the stability of the seabed, making cables more vulnerable. It makes worrying reading. While we
we're already too far down the road
are all fighting to try and minimise climate change,
to stop some of the inevitable impacts. It's ironic that one IT trend that could help
reduce greenhouse gas emissions cloud computing may well itself be a victim
of the impact.

Turndigitizing the world bad for climate change

proliferates resource consumption
Lewis 12, Marlo, Senior Fellow in Environmental Policy at the Competitive
Enterprise Institute, where he writes and researches global warming, energy
policy, and regulatory process reform, September 25, Cloud Computing:
Friend or Foe of Kyotoism?<http://www.globalwarming.org/2012/09/25/cloud-
computing-friend-or-foe-of-kyotoism/>.
the digital warehouses use about 30 billion watts of
Worldwide,
electricity, roughly equivalent to the output of 30 nuclear power
plants, according to estimates industry experts compiled for The Times. Data centers in the
United States account for one-quarter to one-third of that load , the
estimates show. Jeremy Burton, an expert in data storage, said that when he worked at a computer
technology company 10 years ago, the most data-intensive customer he dealt with had about 50,000
gigabytes in its entire database. (Data storage is measured in bytes. The letter N, for example, takes 1
byte to store. A gigabyte is a billion bytes of information.) Today, roughly a million gigabytes are
processed and stored in a data center during the creation of a single 3-D animated movie, said Mr. Burton,
now at EMC, a company focused on the management and storage of data. Just one of the companys
clients, the New York Stock Exchange, produces up to 2,000 gigabytes of data per day that must be stored
the proliferation of
for years, he added. The impact of the Internet or, more broadly,
digital technology and networks on energy consumption and greenhouse gas
emissions has been a contentious topic since 1999, when technology analyst Mark P. Mills published a
study provocatively titled The Internet Begins with Coal and co-authored with Peter Huber a Forbes
column titled Dig more coal: The PCs are coming. Mills and Huber argued that digital networks, server
farms, chip manufacture, and information technology had become a new key
driver of electricity demand. And, they said, as the digital economy grows, so does
demand for super-reliable power the kind you cant get from
intermittent sources like wind turbines and solar panels . Huber and Mills touted the
policy implications of their analysis. To wire the world, we must electrify the
world. For most nations, that means burning more coal. The Kyoto agenda
imperils the digital economy, and vice versa. Others notably Joe Romm and researchers at the Lawrence
Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) argued that the Internet was a minor contributor to electricity
demand and potentially a major contributor to energy savings in such areas as supply-chain management,
telecommuting, and online purchasing. Although Millss ballpark estimates 8% of the nations electric
supply absorbed by Internet-related hardware and 13% of U.S. power consumed by the all information
technology were likely much too high in 1999, they may now be close to the mark. On the question of
basic trend and direction, Mills was spot on. Critics scoffed at Millss contention that, in 1999, computers
and other consumer electronics accounted for a significant share of household electricity consumption. Ten
the International Energy Agency (IEA)
years later, in Gadgets and Gigawatts,
reported that in many OECD country households, electronic devices
a category that includes televisions, desktop computers, laptops, DVD players and recorders, modems,
printers, set-top boxes, cordless telephones, answering machines, game consoles, audio equipment,
consumed more electricity
clocks, battery chargers, mobile phones and childrens games
than did traditional large appliances. The IEA projected that to operate those devices,
households around the world would spend around $200 billion in
electricity bills and require the addition of approximately 280
Gigawatts (GW) of new generating capacity by 2030.

Cloud cant solve warming only shares data on its

processes but doesnt create material solutions or
plausible alternatives to fossil fuels
Cloud Computing bad for the environmentrelies on dirty
sources and requires vast amounts of electicity
Matthews 13, Richard, Richard Matthews is a consultant, eco-
entrepreneur, green investor and author of numerous articles on sustainable
positioning, eco-economics and enviro-politics. He is the owner of The Green
Market Oracle, a leading sustainable business site and one of the Webs most
comprehensive resources on the business of the environment, September 12,
How Environmentally Sustainable is Cloud Computing and Storage?
<http://globalwarmingisreal.com/2013/09/12/sustainable-cloud-computing/>.
The cloud industry has also been called secretive, slow to change its practices,
and overly optimistic in its environmental assessments. The massive
energy requirement of cloud computing can create environmental problems.
According to a 2012 report in the New York Times, data centers use 30 billion watts of
electricity per year globally and the U.S. is responsible for one-third of that amount (10
the IT industry is responsible for as
billion watts). A Gartner report indicated that
much greenhouse gas generation as the aviation industry (2 percent of the
worlds carbon emissions). Just one of these massive server farms can consume the
energy equivalent of 180 000 homes. According to a McKinsey & Company report
commissioned by the Times, between 6 and 12 percent of that energy powers actual computations; the
rest keeps servers running in case of a surge or crash. This is an industry dirty secret,
an anonymous executive told the Times. However, cloud supporters counter that this
may be better understood as a necessary evil if data companies are to ensure that they are able to provide
reliable service at all times. Greenpeace has published a report, A Clean Energy Road Map for Apple, that
follows up on the organizations April How Clean is Your Cloud? report. These studies indicate that
many cloud providers use energy sources that are neither clean nor
sustainable. The Greenpeace analysis showed that tech companies like Akamai and Yahoo! are the
most environment-friendly while companies like Amazon, Apple and Microsoft each rely heavily on power
Cloud computing is almost directly responsible for the
from fossil fuels.
carbon intensity increase at Apple, which gets 60 percent of its
power from coal.

Businesses weary of securitywont join

Page 11, Douglas, July 1, Douglas Page is a freelance writer for Hospitals
and Health Networks in Pine Mountain, Calif. IT Forecast: Warming, with a
Chance of Cloud Computing, <http://www.hhnmag.com/articles/4412-it-
forecast-warming-with-a-chance-of-cloud-computing>.
Some experts say, 'Look again'. The risks of exposing sensitive patient
data, especially in a public cloud, remains a concern. A common
mistake is assuming the cloud is a solution per se. Cloud computing is the
evolution of software as a service. "Organizations often place an
inordinate amount of faith in cloud technology and security without
doing due diligence," says Robert Parisi, senior vice president, Marsh USA,
an insurance broker and risk adviser. Data security easily is neglected in the
rush to adopt electronic health solutions to take advantage of HITECH Act
incentives. "Moving your information into a cloud does not
simultaneously outsource security management. Hospitals remain
responsible," says Chris Steel, PA Consulting Group. Attorney Roy Hadley, of
Barnes & Thornburg LLP, predicts that as hospitals move to the cloud,
security breaches will become more prevalent. "Security lapses could
collectively cost hospitals billions every year," he says. In public clouds,
data can be spread across several locations, or even across
continents, depending on where the vendor hosts the information. Mike
Garzone, chief technology officer of Computer Sciences Corp.'s health care
group, says "hospitals must also consider the potential issues of dealing
with privacy laws that vary by jurisdiction." One solution is to opt for a
private cloud, which can be restricted to affiliate organizations as part of a
community connecting providers, labs and peripheral services. In some
cases, the distinction between public and private clouds is blurring. Some
public cloud providers now offer a ring-fenced portion of the cloud as private.
"We see clients taking different cloud services for different needs, integrated
seamlessly," says Andrew Greenway, who leads the global cloud computing
program for Accenture. IT efficiencies rather than cost savings are what
currently drive interest in cloud computing. Hospitals trying to mitigate data
center-capacity limitations or increase disaster-recovery capability see it as
an option to expand capacity. Scott Nichols, IT director and chief security
officer of Mission Internal Medical Group, Orange County, Calif., says cloud
computing makes sense for delivering information to multiple sites and users.
"It gives you a central location to host your service and move away
from single-server installations at multiple sites that can cause IT
management nightmares," he says.

NSA surveillance does not hurt cloud computing

Nicole Henderson, APRIL 9 2015 Nicole Henderson is the Editor in Chief
of the WHIR, where she covers daily news and features online. She has a
bachelor of journalism from Ryerson University in Toronto. "Impact of NSA
Surveillance on US Cloud Providers Not as Bad as We Thought: Forrester,"
Web Host Industry Review, http://www.thewhir.com/web-hosting-news/impact-
nsa-surveillance-us-cloud-providers-not-bad-thought-forrester)

Its been two years since Edward Snowden leaked details of the NSAs
PRISM surveillance program, and although analysts predicted an exodus
from US-based cloud and hosting services in response to the revelations, it
hasnt exactly worked out that way, a new report finds . Forrester released
a new report last week that suggests concerns around international
customers severing ties with US-based hosting and cloud companies
were overblown. Lost revenue from spending on cloud services and
platforms comes to just over $500 million between 2014 and 2016 . While
significant, these impacts are far less than speculated, as more
companies reported taking control of security and encryption
instead of walking away from US providers, Forresters principal
analyst serving security and risk professionals Edward Ferrara said in a
blog post. Snowden recently told a crowd of cloud and hosting providers
that use of encryption is growing, and encrypted traffic has doubled since
2013. In 2013, Forrester predicted that US cloud providers cloud lose up to
$180 billion in business by 2016 due to concerns around the scope of
NSAs PRISM program. According to NextGov, Forrester finds that 26
percent of enterprises based in Asia Pacific, Canada, Europe and Latin
America have stopped or reduced their spending with US-based firms
for Internet-based services. Thirty-four percent said these concerns
were related to fears of US surveillance, while others said they want to
support businesses in their own country, or data sovereignty rules prevent
them from storing data abroad.