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February 2017 The Security A review of the four

major developments
Times Challenges 25 in the South China
Sea in 2016 is instructive,

Chinese
as they form the
context for the Trump
administration as it
manages its relations
with Beijing.

takeout 1. In September

of the past year, President


Xi Jinping stated at a joint press

The Trump administration conference with President Barack


Obama at the White House that
adds uncertainty to the China would not militarize its
artificial islands. Nonetheless,
standoff in the South China
China has continued to consolidate
Sea | By Carlyle A. Thayer its military presence in
defiance of an Arbitral Tribunal

A
ruling that Chinas Nine-Dash
Line claim to the South China
Sea had no foundation in international
new phase of strategic law.
In 2016, China not only completed
the construction of three
uncertainty has
3-kilometer-long runways on
emerged in relations
Fiery Cross, Subi and Mischief
between China and the
reefs; it also built reinforced hangars
United States under the Trump
with space to accommodate
administration on a number of
24 fighters and three to four
issues, including maritime security
larger planes (such as bombers
in the South China Sea. Rising
and aerial tankers) on each reef.
tensions create the
China later added point defenses
prospect of a downturn
on all of its facilities housing antiaircraft
in bilateral relations
guns and surface-to-air
or, worse, a confrontation
missiles.
at sea or in

2.
the air over contested
waters. The Obama administration
successfully deterred South China Sea and
China from building an artificial the US and the Philippines
island and airfield at Scarborough announced the
Shoal in an unprecedented orchestration commencement of
of military power and joint naval patrols.
high-level diplomacy. In March In June, the USS
2016, American defense officials Ronald Reagan aircraft
reported unusual Chinese surveying carrier replaced the Stennis
activity around Scarborough on patrol duties and the US
Shoal. US and Australian intelligence deployed four EA-18 Growlers,
and analytical agencies later the worlds most advanced electronic
warned that China was poised to warfare aircraft, to the
take decisive and provocative Philippines. During the summer,
action, such as the construction three US destroyers conducted
of a fourth airfield. independent patrols in the waters
A Chinese airfield on Scarborough around the Spratly Islands and
Shoal would complete the two carrier strike groups, Stennis
triangle linking Woody Island in and Reagan, along with six
the Paracels with occupied features warships conducted a large-scale
in the Spratly Islands and exercise off the east coast of the
give China the ability to monitor Philippines.
virtually all aircraft and surface
ships passing over or through the
South China Sea.
3. In 2016, the US Navy conducted

Obama reportedly raised this three Freedom of

issue in a candid exchange with Navigation Operational Patrols

President Xi on the sidelines of (FONOP). In late January, the

the nuclear security summit in USS Curtis Wilbur cruised by

Washington in March. Triton Island in the Paracels; in

In April, the US conducted May, the USS William P. Lawrence

at least three passed near Fiery Cross

aerial patrols around Reef; and in October, the USS

Scarborough Shoal Decatur returned to the waters

using A-10 Thunderbolt near Triton. China responded to

ground attack the first FONOP by deploying

aircraft based in the J-11 fighters and surface-to-air

Philippines. The USS missiles to Woody Island.

John C. Stennis aircraft China responded to US military

carrier strike activities in the South China Sea

group returned to the by regularly shadowing and challenging


US Navy warships and
maritime reconnaissance aircraft, campaign, Trump repeatedly
and by conducting combat air called Beijing a currency manipulator
patrols, including nuclear capable and threatened to slap
bombers, over the South China higher tariffs on goods imported
Sea. In December, Chinese sailors from China. If Trump follows
seized and later returned a US through, a trade war could erupt.
underwater drone. Trump also tweeted criticism of
Chinas island-building in the

4. Vietnam responded to Chinas South China Sea.


On Dec. 2, President-elect
militarization of the Trump took a telephone call
Spratly Islands. During the first from Tsai Ing-wen, the president
half of the year Vietnam reportedly of the Republic of China on
placed Extended Range Artillery Taiwan. Trumps action marked
rocket launchers on five of its the first time in 36 years that a US
features in the Spratlys. Vietnam president or president-elect had
also extended the length of its spoken to the government leader
airfield on Truong Sa Lon Island, of Taiwan.
reportedly to deploy maritime On Dec. 8, China dispatched
patrol aircraft. its only aircraft carrier, the Liaoning,
In contrast, the Philippines, to sail in the waters off
under the new administration of Taiwan in a pointed response to
Rodrigo Duterte, took a number Trumps telephone call with President
of actions that undermined the Tsai. China also deployed
close military cooperation with the a Xian H-6 nuclear-capable
US established under the Aquino bomber on a patrol around Chinas
administration. Duterte terminated Nine-Dash Line claim to the
joint patrols with the United South China Sea.
States and lurched to embrace After China criticized his telephone
China. Dutertes actions threaten conversations, Trump
to undermine the US-Philippines tweeted: Did China ask us if
Mutual Defense Treaty. Dutertes it was OK to build a massive
opening towards China gives Beijing military complex in the middle of
every incentive to downplay the South China Sea? I dont think
its military assertiveness in favor so! In an interview with The Wall
of diplomacy. Street Journal on Dec. 4, Trump
The election of US President was asked whether he supported
Donald Trump has raised the level the One-China policy, Trump
of strategic uncertainty between replied: Everything is under negotiation,
China and the United States. including One-China.
During the presidential election
While Trumps tweets and comments region with our traditional allies
raised the temperature in in Southeast Asia.
Beijing-Washington relations, Tillersons comments added
they paled by comparison to the another pressure point to Sino-
furor that followed comments American relations that are
by Rex Tillerson, Trumps then already strained. This was immediately
nominee for secretary of state, at evident when the hawkish
his confirmation hearing before Chinese Global Times shot back:
the Senate Foreign Relations "Tillerson had better bone up
Committee on Jan. 11. on nuclear power strategies if
During his testimony, Tillerson he wants to force a big nuclear
called Chinas construction and power to withdraw from its own
militarization of artificial islands territories. [] If Trump's diplomatic
in the South China Sea akin team shapes future Sino-US
to Russias taking Crimea from ties as it is doing now, the two
the Ukraine. When Tillerson was sides had better prepare for a
asked whether he supported a military clash.
more aggressive posture against On Jan. 20, White House
China, he responded: Were spokesperson Sean Spicer was
going to have to send China a asked at a press conference
clear signal that, first, the islandbuilding whether Trump agreed with
stops and, second, your Tillersons comments. Spicer
[Chinas] access to those islands replied: I think the US is going
also is not going to be allowed. to make sure that we protect
Tillerson characterized Chinas out interests there [in the South
construction of artificial China Sea]. Its a question of
islands in the South China Sea if those islands are in fact in
as extremely worrisome, for international waters and not
if China were able to dictate part of China proper, then yeah,
access to the South China Sea, were going to make sure that we
it would threaten the entire defend international territories
global economy. He used the from being taken over by one
term illegal actions to brand country. Chinas state media
Chinas island-building in the immediately retorted that the
South China Sea and its declaration United States would need to
of an Air Defense Identification wage war to stop China from
Zone in the East China accessing its sovereign territory.
Sea. The way weve got to deal In its first days in office the
with this, he concluded, is Trump administration has created
weve got to show back up in the strategic uncertainty among allies
and foes over US policy towards
China and raised the possibility
of a confrontation in the South
China Sea. The Obama administration
has been widely viewed
by its critics as being weak in
response to Chinese militarization
of the South China waters. It
remains to be seen if the remarks
by Trump and his top officials are
to be taken as the first building
blocks of a new and more assertive
US policy toward China, or
if they are merely the opening
gambit to extract trade concessions
from Beijing.

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