Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Cambodia Cancels Australian
Counter-Terrorism Exercise
Carlyle A. Thayer
February 18, 2017

[client name delted]

Cambodia has cancelled military exercises with the Australia. Cambodias Defense
spokesmen are saying they're too "busy working on election affairs."
Q1- Are you surprised by how far Cambodia is moving away from Australia, the U.S.
and others? How much further do you think it could go?
ANSWER: Yes I am surprised by the actions Hun Sen has taken against the United
States and Australia (and France if rumours are confirmed). It is counter-productive to
the development of professionalism in the Royal Cambodian Armed Forces. There are
three possible explanations in descending order of likelihood.
First, Hun Sen is making a pre-emptive strike against countries expected to be critical
of how the communal elections are run. In other words, if there is marked government
interference in the communal elections, certain countries can be expected to make
diplomatic and political protests and in some cases cancel military-to-military
cooperation as a sanction.
Second, less likely, Hun Sen fears the emergence of an anti-China group in the officer
corps and wants to cut off their conduits to external militaries.
Third, least likely, Hun Sen does not want foreign military personnel inside Cambodia
during the run up to and after the commune elections in mid-year for fear they might
be caught up in or intervene in domestic politics.
Q2. - Does Australia have anything to lose with Cambodia cancelling these exercises
and moving toward China? What's at stake for Australia?
ANSWER: If foreign criticism of the communal elections intensifies and is followed up
with a suspension of military cooperation and/or suspension of aid to the Cambodian
government, Hun Sen is likely to take further punitive action to demonstrate his
independence. This could take the form of withdrawing Cambodian military officers
from defence courses in Australia. Of course this will only make the Cambodian
Peoples Party regime more reliant and dependent on China.
Australias most recent Defence White Paper gave priority to regional military
engagement. The cancellation of counter-terrorism exercises will be a major setback
for Australia. Military-to-military cooperation is one conduit for Australia to gain an
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insight into and possibly shape or influence Cambodian policies. The loss of this
conduit will reduce one major means of influence on the Hun Sen regime.
Q3. - What do you think the response will be from Australia (and some of these other
countries)?
ANSWER: Australia will take the cancellation of counter-terrorism exercises on the
chin. Privately Australia is likely to query why this decision was taken and counter-
argue that Cambodia is the real looser. Australian special forces have a very high
international reputation for their professionalism and their Cambodian counter-parts
will forfeit the opportunity to gain valuable experience. Counter-terrorism is
sometimes viewed as the low hanging fruit in military-to-military cooperation
because it is directed against a transnational threat and not a particular country. The
United States is unpredictable at the moment because the upper levels of the
bureaucracies at the Defense and State Departments have not been filled. Cambodia
runs the risk that under Trump future military-to-military cooperation may not be
resumed. Whats in it for the United States, Trump may well ask?

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Cambodia Cancels Australian Counter-

Terrorism Exercise, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, February 28, 2017. All
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