Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Vietnam Commissions Sixth
Kilo-class Submarine
Carlyle A. Thayer
February 28, 2017

[client name deleted]

In an important event today the Vietnam People's Navy (VPN) is holding flag-hoisting
ceremony for its sixth Kilo-class submarine. This is the final submarine that Vietnam
ordered from Russia.
This event is considered as the most significant turning point for VPN. We request your
assessment of the significance of this development.
Where do you think this turning point will lead to in 2017 for the Vietnam People's
Navy? And what do you expect to follow in the years ahead?
ANSWER: With the commissioning of the sixth Varshavyanka-class (or Enhanced Kilo-
class submarine) the Vietnams Peoples Navy will move into a new dimension -
undersea warfare. The induction of these six submarines is just the beginning of a long
process of development. Now that Vietnam has these submarines it will have meet
the expected high costs of maintenance, servicing, repairs and training. This may have
a significant impact on the defence budget.
The crews of Vietnams submarines have been trained in Russia and India. In the case
of India it has been reported that the submariners have only received basic orientation
training, much of it in the classroom. These crews need to be trained in advanced
warfare and gain experience at sea.
Vietnams submariners will need to develop a range of skills that can only come from
constant operations and exercising. At the moment observers report that Vietnams
submarines are basically learning how to dive, navigate and return to port.
Much work needs to be done to make these submarines a formidable military
capability. For example, Vietnams submarine force needs to develop an acoustic
library of the sounds of surface ships picked up by the subs sonar. This will enable
Vietnam to distinguish between foreign warships from different countries and
distinguish between the sounds of different commercial vessels that transit the South
China Sea. This information is needed if Vietnam is forced to defend itself in a conflict.
The Varshavyanka-class is known for its stealth but without an acoustic library they
will have difficulty in targeting hostile ships.
On a more positive note, Vietnams submarines can exercise with Vietnams surface
fleet so both can gain experience in surface-subsurface warfare. Vietnams anti-
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submarine warfare forces, such as the Gepard frigates, can gain experience in trying
to identify and track the Varshavyanka-class submarines. Vietnams submarines can
gain experience in evading detection and tracking surface vessels to attack (if
necessary).
Because of the growth of submarine fleets in China and Southeast Asia there is the
possibility of collisions between submarines. There is also the possibility of a mishap.
So Vietnam needs to develop the capability and skill to conduct an emergency rescue
operation for an affected submarine.
Perhaps the biggest hurdle the Vietnam Peoples Navy faces is to become a separate
military service that is not under the land-orientated Vietnam Peoples Army. Vietnam
has only just begun to study and develop its own doctrine for submarine operations
at the strategic, operational and tactical levels. Vietnam will have of necessity to
develop a combined force that integrates the army, navy, air and missile forces to
operate seamlessly in a time of crisis or conflict.
If I may use a football analogy, Vietnams submarine fleet is like a pick-up team of
players who must gain experience before they become n cohesive team. And in order
to test their coaching and training they will need to practice against other teams.
Vietnam will need to gradually but regularly cooperate and exercise in submarine
operations with regional and other countries if it is to develop its submarine fleet to
its greatest capacity.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam Commissions Sixth Kilo-class

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