Professional Documents
Culture Documents
by
Andrew Cook | Founder and CEO | Cook Investment
Firm
andrew.cook@cookinvestmentfirm.com
With the current good news surrounding widespread adoption of Bitcoin and the
somewhat relaxation in volatility. I understand that there are a lot of new
comers entering the Bitcoin community. Over the next 5 days I will be showing
people how to trade Bitcoins. Everything from how to read charts (which we'll
cover today), to how to make educated predictions about the market. We will
only be covering the basics; just enough to get your feet wet. There is a lot to
learn about trading and markets. Everything stated here is just advice, I am not
recommending you to do anything with trading, just friendly advice. Do your
research and due-diligence and never invest more than you're willing to lose.
My name is Andrew Cook. I am the founder and CEO of Cook Investment Firm.
We are a team of investment bankers and economist trading exclusively in
Bitcoin. Currently, we trade around 4,500 Bitcoins per month for over 350
investors. In the last six months our clients have seen an average return on
investment of 72%. We are based in Santiago, Chile and firmly believe that the
best way to make money with Bitcoin is through adoption, not trading. That is
why we work tirelessly with the community here in Chile to spread the word
about Bitcoin.
Enough about who I am and what I do. Let's get to learning. Before you start
trading Bitcoin you have to first understand what Bitcoin is. Of course Bitcoin is
a cryptocurrency, but because cryptocurrencies are so new and the lack of
general knowledge about them makes it difficult to trade them as such. In my
opinion there are two ways one can consider Bitcoin when trading: a commodity
(gold, silver) or a fiat currency (Dollar, Pound, Euro). This makes it easier to
trade because you can look at it like you are trading in a Forex market (i.e.
buying and selling dollars for euros or vice versa). This also allows you to see
your financial gains and losses easier, as well as keeping everything simpler.
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Table of Contents
Part 1: How to Make Money Trading Bitcoin..........................................................3
Price Indexes.................................................................................................3
Exchanges.....................................................................................................3
Sites Providing Market Data (Charts).............................................................3
Charts............................................................................................................4
Volume Explanation.......................................................................................5
Order Book Explanation.................................................................................6
Part 2: Indicators...................................................................................................7
Most Common Indicators...............................................................................7
MA (Moving Average) / EMA (Exponential Moving Average)..........................7
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence).......................................9
SAR (Stop and Reversal)..............................................................................10
RSI (Relative Strength Index).......................................................................11
Part 3: Trading Types and Strategies...................................................................12
Trading Strategies........................................................................................12
Short Term Trading (2 days or less).............................................................12
Long Term Trading (2 days or more)............................................................13
Moving Average Crossover Trading..............................................................13
Momentum Trading......................................................................................14
Technical Trading.........................................................................................15
Fundamental Trading...................................................................................16
Chinese News Trading..................................................................................16
Part 4: Diversity and Risk....................................................................................17
Trading diversity..........................................................................................17
Risk..............................................................................................................17
Part 5: Growing as Traders..................................................................................19
Websites to continue learning.....................................................................19
Keep up with Bitcoin news...........................................................................19
Podcast........................................................................................................20
Alarms.........................................................................................................20
References..........................................................................................................22
About this Document..........................................................................................23
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Part 1: How to Make Money Trading Bitcoin
Price Indexes
First things first, before buying or selling you must know what the price is. There
are many great indexes to see the price, here's a couple:
http://www.coindesk.com/price/
http://winkdex.com/#/
Exchanges
After you know the price, you need a place to buy and sell your Bitcoins. There
are some good and not so good options out there, here are a few that we like:
https://www.bitstamp.net/
https://www.kraken.com/
https://www.bitfinex.com/
Word to the wise, do not put more Bitcoins than you're willing to lose
in any exchange!
Once you have created and funded an account in one or more of the exchanges,
you need to learn when to buy and sell. This is where it gets complicated for
newcomers, but don't fret, we'll help you every step of the way. To know when
you need to buy or sell you have to have an idea of what is happening in the
market. Whether the price is rising or falling, if we are in a bearish market (down
trend) or a bullish market (up trend), etc. To find out this information you have
to look at market data or charts as their called in the investment world. Here are
a few:
https://bitcoinity.org/markets
http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/
But in our opinion, the most inclusive and less overwhelming to learn with is:
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/
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After you click, you are probably thinking, ......ughhhhh......I'm lost. Don't
worry, we'll walk you through it.
First thing you need to know is that there are generally three types of charts
when trading.
Charts
Candlestick charts provide the most information possible in the smallest amount
of space. Let's take a look at one and I'll show you how they work.
Candlestick Image
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The individual candlesticks generally tell you 4 things. What the price was when
it opened and closed. Also, how high the price became during the time frame, as
well as, how low the price dropped too. If the candlestick is green, the open is on
the bottom of the body and the close is on the top, showing that the price
closed higher than when it opened. If the candlestick is red, the open is on top
of the body and the close is on the bottom, showing that the price closed lower
than when it opened. Where as the upper and lower shadows show us the
difference between the high, the low, the open and the close. Now that you
have a good understanding about Candlestick charts you can start to form an
idea of what is happening in the market. If the chart is mainly green and going
upward, we are in a bullish (up) trend. If the chart is mostly red, we are in a
bearish (down) trend.
The second important thing is the time frame you are looking at. Each bar is a
time frame. If you are look at a chart that is for 10 minutes, each bar represents
10 minutes on the chart. You can not day trade when looking at a chart that
goes back for months and vice versa. For short term day trades you want to look
at charts any where from 1 minute to 30 minutes. For long term trades you want
to look at charts from 1 hour and up. At Cook Investment Firm we like 6 hour
charts for our long term trades. Always make sure your chart is adjusted
accordingly, you can make massive financial mistakes if it is not.
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Volume Explanation
The third thing you want to pay attention to is the volume. You can find that at
the bottom of the page. Here's a picture so you can see what I mean.
Volume Image
Volume plays a huge part in trends that are happening. It can tell you whether a
trend is here to stay or if it is just a false trend. If the price goes up but there is
very little volume to support it, odds are the price will go back down. However, if
the price goes up and there is a high amount of volume supporting it. You have
good reason to believe that the price / trend will stay. Volume can also tell you if
the price is trending up or down. If the volume bar is green, that signifies the
price is trending up or if the volume bar is red, that means the price is trending
down.
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There are two parts to the order book, Bids (red / bottom) and Asks (green /
top). The Bids are how much people are willing to buy Bitcoins for and the Asks
are how much people are will to sell Bitcoins for. This is important to take a look
at so you can see if someone sells 1,000 BTC where the price will fall to or vice
versa. The order book also gives you a good idea of how much support the
current trend has. If you see there are a lot less bids than asks. When someone
sells a large quantity the price will change drastically. In a perfect world the
difference between Bids and Asks should be equal (It would like a triangle),
although, this is almost never the case.
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Part 2: Indicators
I have chosen these for three reasons. They are all very common, they vary
greatly in what they can tell you and they are all on Bitcoinwisdom.com
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Moving Averages, are exactly what the name implies, they are moving
averages. A simple way to explain it is they smooth out the price fluctuations
over time. How they work is they take the average closing price over a certain
amount of time (which is changeable). This allows you to see more clearly what
is happening to the price over a period of time thus creating an easier way to
see the potential direction of the market. Because it's an average that needs
inputs to calculate it generally moves slower and less dramatic than the actual
price. Normally when using MA or EMA there are two or more lines. These lines
each have different parameters to show the price average. Generally speaking,
when these two lines cross most traders buy or sell, depending on which way
the trend is going.
Exponential Moving Averages, are the same as regular Moving Averages except
they react quicker to what the market is doing, which could be good and bad.
They change more rapidly, allowing you to see a trend forming faster than you
would with a regular Moving Average. That means you can buy or sell quicker
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and take the most of the opportunity. However, because they move quicker they
also make mistakes. They could lead you to buy or sell into a false signal.
Deciding on which one to use is like picking which child you love the most, you
can't. But they both have pros and cons that when used together can create
miraculous results.
MACD Image:
MACD, is a great indicator to tell if a trend is starting, normally way before the
MA or EMA will tell you one is. This allows you to get that extra jump you need
to ride the trend longer. But be wary, just because it's moving doesn't mean the
price is.
A MACD indicator has three important indicators rolled into one. There are two
moving averages, a slow and a fast one, also there is a histogram. The moving
averages are just like the ones mentioned before, except the almost always
move faster (but you can change the parameters). The histogram shows the
difference between the two moving averages. The farther apart the moving
averages are the bigger the histogram is. When the histogram is trending down
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this is a good indication that the price will also begin trending down. Although, it
could also work the other way. When the Histogram is trending up it is a good
indication that the price will also trend up. But not always, so pay attention. A
word to the wise, when the two moving averages on the MACD cross, the
histogram will always be at zero (or in the center of the line).
SAR Image
My favorite thing about the SAR, indicator is it is so simple even your cat can
use it. Stop and Reversal literally means the trend has stopped and is reversing
the other way. When the dots are below the candlesticks: buy. When the dots
are above the candlesticks: sell. That simple. Personally, I only use this to
confirm my suspicions about what the market is doing. There is an Achilles
tendon though, it is horrible in a sideways market (when the candlesticks are
flat), you will only lose money, I promise you.
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RSI (Relative Strength Index)
RSI Image
The RSI, is an identifier that can tell you if the market is oversold or overbought.
The RSI reads on a scale from 0 to 100. If the line is below 30, you can easily
assume that too many people sold and the price will start to come up. If the line
is above 70, too many people bought and the price will surely come down. The
big question is how much, that is something that this indicator cannot tell you.
But it can definitely help you see if a trend is on the way. If the RSI line is
showing below center (50) for a while it is very probable the price will start
trending up.
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Part 3: Trading Types and Strategies
Trading Strategies
Now that's out of the way, let's get down to business. Trading strategies. I am
not a mystic nor a guru. There is no magical formula that will allow you to make
perfect trades. There also is not an easy route. If you want to make good or
even great trades you must put in the time and effort it takes to gather the
information, look at the patterns, follow the news and finally make the trade. But
even when all of those things fall into place you still can make a horrible trade.
Sell when Bitcoin is at the lowest it's been in weeks or buy when it's at its
highest. Remember speculation is speculation, it should never be considered
something else.
Basic trading strategy is: Buy low, Sell high. Saying that is 100 times easier than
actually doing it. We'll be looking at some ways we can maximize this possibility.
Momentum Trading
Technical Trading
Fundamental Trading
Chinese News Trading (Only applies to Bitcoin, mostly a joke, but still
functional)
The basic idea of short term trading is to take advantage of small gains and
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losses throughout the day. This type of trader normally trades a few times
during the day or at least once every two days. This strategy in theory can work.
Although personally I have never seen it. Most day traders (as there also known)
lose more money then they make. Maybe they will make profits for one week or
even two, but eventually they will almost always lose. Generally speaking day
traders lose out on big long term changes in the market, because they are so
focused on the day instead of the month. Many people trade this way and for
some it does work. I've just never seen them.
Long term trading is the idea that big changes happen over time and to take
advantage of those changes you need to wait. An average long term trader, at
most, trades once every 2 days. They can also go years without making a single
trade. This style of trading is a lot more relaxed and less stressful than short
term trading. You can relax and watch the price slowing zig-zag up or down
depending on the market and only worry when it changes direction. Because
this type of trading does not take advantage of the small or even medium
changes you can miss out on that 5% gain. Long term trading is by far the
safest way to trade. It is very hard to lose in long term trading, as long as you
react when the time is right.
Know that you have an idea of what kind of trader you want to be, you can
choose a strategy. There are many to choose from and I think it's best that all
new traders try a bit of each. Some are emotional, some are logical but they all
work when in the right hands.
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Image 1
Momentum Trading
Momentum trading is probably the simplest here, but the least effective in
making profits. The basic idea is you wait for a trend to have some momentum
behind it and jump on or off. See the image [2] in the next page, where I show
you where you jump on. This is a very good and safe way to trade. However, it
only works on long term trades and one should not expect huge gains from this
style of trading.
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Image 2
Technical Trading
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is doing. We always need to find a reason behind what the price is doing, which
can create massive headaches and an addiction to coffee, but there are
benefits. Believe or not 70% of the time, markets really do follow trends and
technical traders are normally the first to profit from it. However, that other 30%
of the time, that markets do not follow trends, we lose, massively in most cases.
If you don't like math nor geometry technical trading is probably not for you. But
everyone should have a bit of knowledge about it. It can only help you.
Fundamental Trading
This is mostly a joke, but surprisingly it works quite well. Every time China
releases a news statement about how they are banning Bitcoin. Sell! Almost
every time they do, the price takes a massive hit, ~20% is common. Then after
three or four days the price will level out and start going back up. That is your
time to buy. You might think I'm crazy, but this so far is the most profitable way
to trade Bitcoins in the last 6 months. Timing is everything though, miss it by an
hour and you might as well just hold on to your coins. They normally release
news on Friday mornings 2:00 a.m. (GMT), so keep you eyes open. Just a
reminder, do not take this seriously, even though it has worked.
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Part 4: Diversity and Risk
Trading diversity
The simplest way to explain trading diversity is in a saying, Don't put all of your
eggs in one basket. Do not spend your entire bitcoin fund on one trade. Maybe
it will be a great trade, but even if it's a sure thing don't do it. One mistake and
all of your bitcoins are gone, and no one wants that. I suggest staggered
trading. When the price starts to come up or go down, start buying or selling in
increments. For example, at the first sign of an up trend starting go in with only
5% or 10% of your total capital. After the trend looks like it will be staying for a
while go in with another 5% or 10%, so on and so forth until you are comfortable
with the amount that is in. Word to the wise though, never go in 100%.
Another way to go about this is different profiles all together. One long term, one
medium term and one short term (ie. One you trade daily, one you trade once a
month, and one you trade once or twice a year). This the best way to minimize
you losses while still maintaining the ability to make money. For example at
Cook Investment Firm we break it down in to five profiles and then break those
down into 3 profiles. This allows us to maintain a certain amount of control
across all profiles. I highly suggest trading this way, or at least break it down
into two profiles. It will keep you sane and lower your overall stress when
trading. Which brings us into to the next part.
Risk
With great opportunity comes great risk and Bitcoin is no different. Trading is
serious business. It is not for everyone is should never be taken lightly. When
you break trading down the only word you wind up with is gambling. Traders are
basically gamblers. There is a fine line that separates us. Gamblers don't have
the same formulas and tools that traders have (at least kind of work). And when
we buy $50,000 USD of Apple or Microsoft, no one bats an eye. But if you were
to go to a casino and put even $10,000 USD on red at a roulette wheel, I am
sure your family would have a heart attack. I know many people think there is a
big difference. But is there really?
Trading, just like gambling can become a serious addiction with life changing
consequences. That first time you increase your holding by 10% is like no other.
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You just want more and more until you can never get enough. Most addicted
traders feel such a drive to get that extra .1% that they will risk vast fortunes
just to get it. I have to tell you, it's not worth it.
Checking the Bitcoin price every minute will change everything except the price.
Your friends will slowly disappear, your hair will start to fall out (or a least
faster), the amount of money you spend on coffee alone will skyrocket and what
will you gain from it. Probably nothing. The best trades are not made minute to
minute, they are made week to week, month to month or even year to year.
Recently someone told me about there experience, here's what they wrote:
I started trading back during the last November run up. I quickly
became over invested in it and it began to consume my daily living.
When I would be out and about I would have to constantly check
Bitcoinwisdom every 5 or 10 minutes on my phone. At home I would
have the charts open 24/7 and if I would wake up in the night I would
have to go and check the charts before returning to bed. My behavior
began to irritate my girlfriend and also negatively impact my mood. It
really wasn't healthy and I knew it wasn't. It didn't feel good and I
wouldn't recommend it to anyone.
Being overly consumed by anything is just bad for your mental health.
I learned rather quickly that I didn't want to be consumed by my desire
to maximize my profits to the furthest extent, it just simply wasn't
worth it. I settled on just getting my stash an holding, because there is
so much more peace of mind that way. I don't really bother with
altcoin trading anymore and I just watch for big price movements
while staying up to date with the news in the Bitcoin ecosystem.
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Part 5: Growing as Traders
Free websites and tools to help you continue growing as traders and keep you
update with everything in the Bitcoin world
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Coindesk [ http://www.coindesk.com/ ] - Generally good writing and
interesting articles. They have many stories a day and most of them are
unique. Highly recommend in my opinion.
Podcast
Alarms
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That is all folks. I want to personally thank you for taking the time and reading
this. As well as the last 4 post. Most people thought this was a promotion for my
company, it really wasn't. I just want to help the Bitcoin community. I feel that
we have an awesome tool (bitcoin) and that we need to share it with the world.
If I have sparked something inside just one person, I feel as if I have done my
job. It has been great reading all your comments (even the not so nice ones)
and I'd love if all of you kept this discussion about trading open.
If you have any questions or concerns you can contact me here, on Reddit, or
the IRC: Acook3, but the best way is through email:
andrew.cook@cookinvestmentfirm.com
Also if you'd like to learn a little more about my company and what we do, you
can visit our website: https://cookinvestmentfirm.com
Happy investing!
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References
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About this Document
First of all I am not the original author nor do I claim any credits for the
articles.
The above text, is a compilation of a five part articles posted on Reddit about
how to trade Bitcoins. I have compiled them into one big book like text for
easier reading. Most changes from the original text involve the placing of the
images, the addition of titles, reformatting and putting the information about the
author at the end.
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