Tp ch Khoa hc HQGHN: Kinh t v Kinh doanh, Tp 31, S 3 (2015) 42-51

Xc nh im ngng trong quan h lm pht

v tng trng kinh t ti cc quc gia ASEAN

L Thanh Tng*
Trng i hc Tn c Thng,
19 Nguyn Hu Th, Tn Phong, Qun 7, Thnh ph H Ch Minh, Vit Nam
Nhn ngy 14 thng 7 nm 2014
Chnh sa ngy 10 thng 9 nm 2015; chp nhn ng ngy 25 thng 9 nm 2015

Tm tt: S pht trin n nh, bn vng ca nn kinh t ph thuc vo nhiu yu t, trong c

kim ch t l lm pht mc va phi. Bi vit ny c mc tiu xc nh im ngng trong
quan h lm pht v tng trng kinh t ti 9 quc gia ASEAN, s dng s liu bng trong giai
on 1990-2012. Kt qu nghin cu cho thy ngng lm pht ti cc quc gia ASEAN l 4%.
Nu t l lm pht bng hoc thp hn ngng ny th lm pht v tng trng kinh t c quan h
dng. Ngc li, nu t l lm pht vt qua ngng 4% th quan h lm pht v tng trng
kinh t li chuyn sang quan h m.
T kha: Ngng lm pht, tng trng kinh t, ASEAN.

1. Gii thiu khng phi l quan h tuyn tnh m l quan h

Theo l thuyt kinh t v m hin i, trong
qu trnh thc y tng trng kinh t, cc quc
gia cn phi quan tm n vic n nh mc gi
chung (n nh lm pht). Nu mun c tng
trng kinh t bn vng th cc quc gia phi
gn kt c gia t l tng trng cao vi t l
lm pht va phi v tng ng vi t l tht
nghip thp. Nhiu nghin cu chng minh
lm pht c tc ng m n tng trng kinh
t trong trung v di hn, cho thy lm pht km
hm tng trng [1, 2, 3].
Tuy nhin, ng lu , mt s nghin cu
li khm ph rng bn cht mi quan h gia
lm pht v tng trng kinh t trong di hn
_______
phi tuyn tnh [4, 5, 6]. C ngha l ti cc im
m t l lm pht va phi th lm pht v tng
trng kinh t c quan h dng (kch thch)
hoc lm pht khng tc ng n tng trng,
tuy nhin khi t l lm pht tng cao th lm
pht li c tc ng m (km hm) n tng
trng. Nh vy, nu lm pht cao km hm
tng trng kinh t th t l lm pht bao nhiu
l tt cho nn kinh t, mc 9% hay 6%, hoc
thm ch 0% c hp l khng? tr li cu
hi ny, phi xc nh c im ngng m
ti mi quan h gia lm pht v tng trng
kinh t thay i, chuyn t quan h dng sang
m. Bn cnh , nu xc nh c ngng
lm pht ng ngha vi vic xc nh c
khong m trong t l lm pht l ti u cho
tng trng kinh t lm cn c hoch nh,

T: 84-918796756 iu hnh chnh sch cho ph hp.

Email: lethanhtung@tdt.edu.vn
42
 L.T. Tng / Tp ch Khoa hc HQGHN: Kinh t v Kinh doanh, Tp 31, S 3 (2015) 42-51 43

Trong vi thp k gn y, ngoi v tr a 2. Tng quan mt s nghin cu v ngng

chnh tr quan trng th cc nc Hip hi cc lm pht trn th gii
Quc gia ng Nam (ASEAN) cng c
Mi quan h gia lm pht v tng trng
nhiu th mnh trn mt s phng din nh
kinh t l mt ch kinh t v m quan trng
chi ph nhn cng r, c cu dn s tr, thu
v c nhiu chuyn gia kinh t quan tm
nhp bnh qun u ngi ngy cng cao, mi
nghin cu. Mt trong nhng nghin cu u
trng kinh doanh nng ng, thu ht c
tin v vic tn ti ca ngng lm pht l
nhiu vn u t nc ngoi. Hin nay,
nghin cu ca Fischer (1993), trong tc gi
ASEAN c cng ng quc t nhn nhn l
pht hin ra mi quan h dng gia lm pht
mt trong nhng khu vc c tng trng kinh
v tng trng ti cc t l lm pht thp, tuy
t mnh nht ti chu , thm ch xt trn bnh
nhin khi lm pht tng cao th quan h li
din ton th gii. Tuy nhin, ASEAN ch yu
chuyn sang m [4]. Pht hin ny tip tc c
bao gm cc quc gia ang pht trin nn
khng nh qua kt qu nghin cu ca Sarel
thng phi i mt vi nhng bin ng ca
(1996) [5], Ghosh v Phillips (1998) [6].
lm pht. Lm pht c xem nh mt trong
nhng nguyn nhn gy bt n v m, st gim Tip theo, nghin cu thc nghim c
tng trng kinh t ti nhiu quc gia trong Khan v Senhadji (2001) tin hnh trn mt
khu vc. mu ln vi 140 quc gia pht hin ra
ngng lm pht m theo tng trng v
Mc tiu nghin cu ca bi vit l s dng
lm pht c quan h dng nu t l lm pht
m hnh kinh t lng tr li thu o hai
thp hn hoc bng mc ngng, sau
cu hi sau: (i) C tn ti im ngng trong
chuyn sang mc m nu t l lm pht vt
quan h tng trng kinh t v lm pht ti cc
im ngng [8]. Cc tc gi pht hin ngng
quc gia ASEAN khng? (ii) Nu c th
lm pht l 3% ti cc quc gia cng nghip v
ngng lm pht ny l bao nhiu? Qua vic tr
11% i vi cc quc gia ang pht trin.
li cc cu hi trn, bi vit k vng s b sung
thm vo c s l thuyt nghin cu v ngng Nghin cu ca Kremer v cng s (2009)
lm pht cng nh cung cp thm thng tin thc hin trn mt mu kh ln vi 124 quc
tham kho cho cc i tng hu quan trong gia trong giai on 1950-2004 ch ra rng lm
vic xc nh lm pht mc tiu thi gian ti. pht mc tiu ti cc nc cng nghip ha
ch nn bng hoc thp hn mc 2%, cn i
Bn cnh , do tc gi s dng s liu t
vi cc quc gia cha cng nghip ha th mc
ngun c s d liu ca Ngn hng Pht trin
lm pht vt qu 17% s km hm tng trng
chu (ADB) (4 b d liu l Key Indicators
kinh t [9]. Nghin cu ca Villavicencio v
for Asia and the Pacific 1999, 2006, 2008,
Mignon (2011) vi 44 quc gia cho thy ti cc
2013) nhng hin ti trong c s d liu ny
nc pht trin, quan h tng trng v lm
cha cp nht y s liu ca Lo. Do ,
pht l dng nu t l lm pht di v bng
nghin cu ny ch gii hn trong phm vi 9
3%, cn vt qu mc ny th s chuyn sang
nc l Brunei, Campuchia, Indonesia,
m, tuy nhin i vi cc quc gia ang chuyn
Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore,
i (nhm thu nhp trung bnh) th ngng lm
Thi Lan v Vit Nam. Thi gian nghin cu
pht l 17% [10]. Tip theo, nghin cu ca
cng c gii hn trong giai on t nm
Ghazouani (2012) vi s liu ca 19 quc gia
1990-2012 [7].
44 L.T. Tng / Tp ch Khoa hc HQGHN: Kinh t v Kinh doanh, Tp 31, S 3 (2015) 42-51
khu vc Bc Phi v Trung ng trong giai on
1961-1990 cho thy ngng lm pht ca cc
quc gia ny l 10% [11].
Bn cnh cc nghin cu s dng mu ln,
mt s nghin cu li thc hin trn s liu ti
tng quc gia nh cng trnh ca Hasanov
(2010) ti Azerbaijani. Tc gi pht hin
ngng lm pht trong quan h tng trng v
lm pht ti quc gia ny, trong tng trng
v lm pht c quan h dng nu t l lm
pht 13%, ngc li quan h l m nu t l
lm pht > 13% [12]. Nghin cu ca Salami v
Kelikume (2010) ti Nigeria cho thy nu s
dng s liu giai on 1980-2008 th ngng
lm pht l 8%, tuy nhin khi m rng s liu
trong giai on 1970-2008 th ngng lm pht
ch mc 7% [13].
3. Tng trng kinh t v lm pht ti cc
quc gia ASEAN giai on 1990-2012
3.1. Tng trng kinh t
Trong vi thp k gn y, cc quc gia
ASEAN c cng ng quc t nhn nhn nh
mt trong nhng khu vc c kinh t pht trin
nhanh, nng ng, thu ht u t mnh nht th
gii. D bo trong th k XXI, chu - Thi
Bnh Dng ni chung v ASEAN ni ring s
l a bn ch yu thc y tng trng kinh t
chu , thm ch c k vng nh mt cc
tng trng mi ca th gii [14].
Mc d vy, qu trnh tng trng kinh t
ti cc quc gia ASEAN cng khng hon ton
n nh trong hn hai thp k tr li y. Sau
khi tng trng kinh t trung bnh ca ASEAN
t mc 5,8% vo nm 1990, n nm 1991,
mc tng trng t ngt st gim kh mnh
2,8% khi chin tranh vng Vnh n ra v gi
du m tng cao t bin. Tuy nhin, tng
trng kinh t ca ASEAN ngay lp tc phc
hi tr li mc 5,6% vo nm 1992 v lin tc
t trn 7% trong giai on 1993-1995 (nm
1993 l 7,1%; nm 1994: 7,7%; nm 1995:
7,4%) [7].
Tuy nhin, tng trng kinh t ca ASEAN
li st gim mnh vo nm 1997 khi cuc
khng hong ti chnh tin t chu bng n
ti Thi Lan, tip lan sang Malaysia,
Philippines, Singapore v tip tc nh hng
tiu cc n cc quc gia trong khu vc. Cuc
khng hong ko t l tng trng kinh t
trung bnh ca ASEAN t 6,8% nm 1996
xung cn 4,7% nm 1997 v gim mnh
xung mc -1,98% nm 1998 [7].
Nn kinh t cc nc ASEAN dn tr li
trng thi n nh v tng trng kinh t phc
hi ln mc 5,92% nm 1999 v 7,2% nm
2000. Nhng n nm 2001, tng trng kinh
t trung bnh ca ASEAN li st gim xung
2,9%, sau tng ln 6,1% nm 2002 v t
6,05% nm 2003. Tip theo, trong giai on
nm 2004-2007, ASEAN lin tc c mc tng
trng trung bnh trn 6%/nm, nhp tng
trng ny c duy tr kh n nh trong c
thi k trn [7].
Tuy nhin, tng trng kinh t ca c
ASEAN t ngt chng li trong nm 2008 (t
l tng trng trung bnh gim xung mc
3,6%) khi cuc khng hong kinh t th gii
bng pht ti M v nhanh chng lan rng ton
cu. Tip , trong nm 2009, tng trng kinh
t ca cc quc gia ASEAN st gim rt mnh,
t l tng trng trung bnh c khu vc ch cn
khong 0,8%, trong mt s quc gia c mc
tng trng m nh Thi Lan -0,9%, Singapore
-0,8%, Malaysia -1,5%. n nm 2010, nh
chnh sch kch cu c thc hin ti nhiu
quc gia trong khu vc nn tng trng kinh t
phc hi mnh (t l tng trng trung bnh t
7,2% nm 2010), tuy nhin tng trng li st
gim trong nm 2011 khi ch t mc 4,6% v
nhch ln mc 4,9% nm 2012. Nh vy, s
 L.T. Tng / Tp ch Khoa hc HQGHN: Kinh t v Kinh doanh, Tp 31, S 3 (2015) 42-51
liu thng k cho thy dng nh cc quc gia
ASEAN vn cha ly li c tng trng
n nh nh giai on trc khng hong kinh
t th gii nm 2008 [7].
3.2. T l lm pht
Tng t nh tng trng kinh t, nhn
chung trong thi k 1990-2012, lm pht ti cc
quc gia ASEAN c nhiu giai on bin ng
mnh. Sau khi lm pht trung bnh tng cao, t
mc hai con s trong giai on 1990-1993 th
lm pht gim xung mc mt con s trong giai
on 1994-1997 (nm 1994: 7,4%; nm 1995:
7,9%; nm 1996: 6,3%; nm 1997: 6,1%) [7].
Tuy nhin, lm pht li t ngt tng cao
ln mc hai con s vo nm 1998 (14,2%) khi
cuc khng hong ti chnh tin t xut pht t
Thi Lan lan rng ra c ASEAN. Sau , t l
lm pht ca khu vc dn n nh v gim v
mc 6,5% trong nm 1999, ri gim mnh
xung mc 1,8% nm 2000 v tng ln 4,9%
nm 2001 [7].
Trong giai on 2002-2007, cng vi
phc hi kinh t ca khu vc, lm pht trung
d
Hnh 1: T l tng trng kinh t cc nc ASEAN, 1990-2012.
Ngun: Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific [7].
45
bnh cng n nh mc mt con s (nm
2002: 8,6%; nm 2003: 5,9%; nm 2004: 3,9%;
nm 2005: 4,5%; nm 2006: 6,8%; nm 2007:
6,23%) [7]. Sau , do tc ng tiu cc ca
cuc khng hong kinh t th gii, t l lm
pht trung bnh ca cc quc gia ASEAN t ngt
tng ln mc 11% nm 2008 v cng trong nm
ny tng trng kinh t khu vc gim xung mc
3,6%. Tip theo, lm pht st gim mnh xung
mc 1,9% nm 2009 v dn n nh mc 4,3%
nm 2010, tng nh ln mc 5,9% nm 2011 v
gim xung 3,4% nm 2012 [7] (Hnh 1).
3.3. Kho st mi quan h gia tng trng
kinh t v lm pht
Kt qu kho st thc nghim bng th
chui thi gian (Hnh 3) cho thy kh r: Nhiu
giai on lm pht tng cao tng ng vi tng
trng kinh t gim mnh (in hnh l cc nm
1991, 1998, 2008). Bn cnh , trong cc giai
on 1994-1996 v 2002-2007, tng trng
kinh t ti ASEAN lin tc t mc cao (dao
ng trn di 7%) th lm pht cng n nh
mc mt con s.
46 L.T. Tng / Tp ch Khoa hc HQGHN: Kinh t v Kinh doanh, Tp 31, S 3 (2015) 42-51

Tuy nhin, cu hi t ra l: Trong giai pht ti cc quc gia ASEAN c trnh by

on 1990-2012, liu c tn ti im ngng
m ti quan h lm pht v tng trng kinh
t ca ASEAN chuyn t dng sang m
khng? Nu ch quan st Hnh 3 s thy ti cc
nm 2001 v nm 2010, khi t l lm pht mc
thp th lm pht tng tng ng vi t l tng
trng kinh t cng tng ln (quan h dng).
Tuy nhin, khi lm pht vt ln cao trong nm
2002 v 2011, ngay lp tc tng trng kinh t st
gim (quan h m).
Nh vy, kt qu phn tch s b trn s liu
thc t phn no chng minh cho thy s tn
ti ca mt im ngng m ti quan h lm
pht v tng trng kinh t ca ASEAN chuyn
du t dng sang m.
4. M hnh v s liu s dng cho nghin cu
Da trn c s khung l thuyt c pht
hin v pht trin bi Fischer (1993), Sarel
(1996), Ghosh v Phillips (1998) cng nh m
hnh kinh t lng v xc nh im ngng
trong mi quan h lm pht v tng trng kinh
t c xy dng bi Khan v Senhadji (2001)
[4, 5, 6, 8], phng trnh xc nh ngng lm
nh sau:
Trong phng trnh (1), bin ph thuc
GRGDPit (Growth of Real GDP) l t l tng
trng kinh t; cc bin gii thch gm c INFit
(Inflation) l t l lm pht; INVit (Investment)
l t l ca tng u t trong nc trn GDP;
EXit (Export) l t l tng trng ca kim ngch
xut khu ca quc gia i ti nm t. Cui cng,
DUt l bin gi, c xc nh nh sau:
1 : INFt > k
DU t =
0 : INFt k
Theo Khan v Senhadji (2001), tham s k
chnh l ngng lm pht cn xc nh [8].
Quan h lm pht v tng trng kinh t c
m t nh sau: (i) T l lm pht thp hn hoc
bng ngng k: 1; (ii) t l lm pht cao hn
ngng k: (1 + 2); lm pht cao ngha l cc
h s hi quy c lng c u c ngha
thng k v sau tng (1 + 2) c hiu l
tc ng ca lm pht n tng trng. Qua
im k (im ngng lm pht), quan h lm
pht v tng trng kinh t c s i du, ngha
l 1 > 0 nhng (1 + 2) < 0.

GRGDPit = 0 + 1 INFit + 2 DU t (INFit k) + 3 INVit + 4 EX it + u it (1)

f

Hnh 2: T l lm pht cc nc ASEAN, 1990-2012.

Ngun: Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific [7].
 L.T. Tng / Tp ch Khoa hc HQGHN: Kinh t v Kinh doanh, Tp 31, S 3 (2015) 42-51 47

Hnh 3: Mi quan h gia tng trng v lm pht ca ASEAN.

Ngun: Tc gi tnh ton t Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific [7].

Thc hin c lng cho cc gi tr ca phng trnh (1) c c lng vi b d liu

tham s k c la chn vi th t tng ln (1,
2, 3, 4) v gi tr k ti u phi tha mn iu
kin: Cc h s hi quy (1 v 2) u c
ngha thng k, gi tr ca tng bnh phng
phn d: RSS (Residual Sum of Squares) thu
c t kt qu hi quy phng trnh (1) l nh
nht v h s xc nh R2 l ln nht [8].
tnh ton phng trnh (1), bi vit s
dng s liu bng hn hp (panel data), c
ly theo nm trong giai on 1990-2012. Nh
vy, c tng cng 207 quan st (9 quc gia x 23
nm). n v tnh ca tt c s liu cc bin
nghin cu l %. Ton b s liu c ly t b
c s d liu Key Indicators for Asia and the
Pacific ca ADB trong cc nm 1999, 2006,
2008 v 2013 [7].
5. Kt qu nghin cu
xc nh im ngng m ti quan
h gia lm pht v tng trng kinh t ti cc
quc gia ASEAN chuyn t dng sang m th
bng hn hp. Trong , cc ngng lm pht
c la chn th nghim trong khong k = 1
n k = 9. Sau , qua so snh cc kt qu thu
c, ngng lm pht ti cc quc gia
ASEAN c xc nh ti mc k m ti kt
qu tha mn ng thi 4 iu kin: (i) Cc h
s hi quy 1 v 2 c ngha thng k; (ii) c
s chuyn du trong quan h lm pht v tng
trng kinh t khi i qua ngng k; (iii) gi tr
RSS l nh nht; (iv) gi tr R2 ln nht.
Kt qu c lng phng trnh (1) xc
nh ngng lm pht vi k = 1 n k = 9 c
trnh by trong Bng 1.
Nh vy, kt qu hi quy vi k = 1 n
k = 9 cho thy ti ngng lm pht k = 4 p
ng y tt c cc iu kin m Khan v
Senhadji (2001) a ra. Theo , k = 4 chnh l
ngng m ti quan h lm pht v tng
trng kinh t ti cc quc gia ASEAN chuyn
t dng sang m. Kt qu tnh ton vi m
hnh kinh t lng (1) cng hon ton tng
ng vi kt qu kho st trn s liu thc t
48 L.T. Tng / Tp ch Khoa hc HQGHN: Kinh t v Kinh doanh, Tp 31, S 3 (2015) 42-51

(phn 3.3 v Hnh 3). iu c ngha, nu t
l lm pht trung bnh ti cc quc gia ASEAN
4% th lm pht tng ln s tc ng thc y
tng trng kinh t nhanh hn (quan h dng).
Tuy nhin, nu t l lm pht trung bnh > 4%
th lm pht tng s tc ng km hm, lm tng
trng kinh t chm li (quan h m). T ,
mi quan h gia lm pht v tng trng kinh
t ti cc quc gia ASEAN c m t bng
phng trnh (2):
GRGDP = 1,733191 + 0,492694INF
0,543058DU * (INF-4) + 0,069956INV +
0,116044EX (2)
Theo phng trnh (2), khi t l lm pht
trung bnh ti cc quc gia ASEAN 4%, lm
pht tng 1% s tng ng vi t l tng trng
tng ln 0,492694% (bin gi DU = 0). Tuy
nhin, nu t l lm pht trung bnh > 4% (bin
gi DU = 1) th lm pht tng 1% s lm tng
trng gim tng ng -0,050364% (0,492694%
- 0,543058%). Bn cnh , t l tng u t
trong nc trn GDP (INV) v tng trng xut
khu (EX) cng ng thi c mi quan h dng
vi tng trng kinh t (GRGDP) vi ngha
thng k ln lt l 5% v 1%.
6. Kt lun v hm chnh sch cho Vit Nam
Bi vit s dng d liu bng vi 207 quan
st trong giai on 1990-2012 ti 9/10 quc gia
ASEAN (tr Lo) vi mc tiu nghin cu l
xc nh im ngng m ti quan h lm
pht v tng trng kinh t ti cc quc gia
ASEAN c s i du, chuyn t dng (lm
pht tng s kch thch tng trng) sang m
(lm pht tng s km hm tng trng). Kt
qu nghin cu khng nh: (i) Tn ti im
ngng l k = 4% m ti quan h lm pht
v tng trng ti cc quc gia ASEAN c s
i du t dng sang m; (ii) nu t l lm
pht trung bnh 4% th lm pht tng 1%
tng ng vi t l tng trng trung bnh ca
ASEAN tng 0,49%; ngc li t l lm pht
trung bnh > 4% th lm pht tng 1% tng
ng vi t l tng trng trung bnh ASEAN
gim 0,05%.
Bn cnh , t phn tch s liu thng k
v kt qu nghin cu c th rt ra mt s
thng tin tham kho cho cc nh qun l trong
lnh vc c lin quan ti Vit Nam nh sau:

Bng 1: Kt qu tnh ngng lm pht vi phng trnh (1)

Bin ph thuc: GRGDP
S quan st: 207
k Bin H s Thng k t Xc sut
C 1,790634 2,020690 0,0305 R2 0,25066
INF 1,296833 2,178308 0,0305 RSS 2906,004
1 DU*(INF-1) -1,337619 -2,235413 0,0265
INV 0,081121 2,563192 0,0111
EX 0,121051 5,968761 0,0000
C 1,471176 1,651510 0,1002 R2 0,263426
INF 1,012218 2,814729 0,0054 RSS 2858,044
2 DU*(INF-2) -1,058493 -2,910428 0,0040
INV 0,071477 2,246302 0,0258
EX 0,119814 5,996535 0,0000
L.T. Tng / Tp ch Khoa hc HQGHN: Kinh t v Kinh doanh, Tp 31, S 3 (2015) 42-51 49

C 1,551629 1,785769 0,0756 R2 0,262398

INF 0,721906 2,945095 0,0036 RSS 2862,032
3 DU*(INF-3) -0,771536 -3,087265 0,0023
INV 0,067806 2,122988 0,0350
EX 0,117112 5,896131 0,0000
C 1,733191 2,020806 0,0446 R2 0,267119
INF 0,492694 2,669224 0,0082 RSS 2843,714
4 DU*(INF-4) -0,543058 -2,859607 0,0047
INV 0,069956 2,184668 0,0301
EX 0,116044 5,826965 0,0000
C 1,853532 2,176923 0,0306 R2 0,258733
INF 0,359812 2,432415 0,0159 RSS 2876,252
5 DU*(INF-5) -0,410578 -2,671750 0,0082
INV 0,072860 2,279013 0,0237
EX 0,116299 5,824016 0,0000
C 1,889117 2,228683 0,0269 R2 0,258507
INF 0,293997 2,371465 0,0187 RSS 2877,132
6
DU*(INF-6) -0,345912 -2,659756 0,0084
INV 0,075382 2,374399 0,0185
EX 0,116130 5,815283 0,0000
C 1,871918 2,210092 0,0282 R2 0,259736
INF 0,258001 2,389769 0,0178 RSS 2872,361
7 DU*(INF-7) -0,311536 -2,724254 0,0070
INV 0,078131 2,483189 0,0138
EX 0,116197 5,823370 0,0000
C 1,853969 2,193593 0,0294 R2 0,261593
INF 0,232994 2,437182 0,0157 RSS 2865,155
8 DU*(INF-8) -0,288266 -2,819264 0,0053
INV 0,080269 2,568919 0,0109
EX 0,116083 5,825561 0,0000
C 1,796868 2,129679 0,0344 R2 0,260746
INF 0,224361 2,585852 0,0104 RSS 2868,519
9 DU*(INF-9) -0,282297 -3,012608 0,0029
INV 0,082062 2,645599 0,0088
EX 0,116191 5,846645 0,0000
Ngun: Tc gi tnh ton t s liu nghin cu.
50 L.T. Tng / Tp ch Khoa hc HQGHN: Kinh t v Kinh doanh, Tp 31, S 3 (2015) 42-51
Th nht, kinh nghim trong hn hai thp
k pht trin kinh t ti Vit Nam cho thy cc
giai on c lm pht tng cao u gn vi tng
trng kinh t st gim. V vy, n nh v
m v kch thch tng trng kinh t, cc c
quan chc nng cn c bit quan tm ti vic
n nh gi c, n nh lm pht ca nn kinh
t. V d: trong giai on 1995-2004, Vit Nam
c t l lm pht trung bnh ch mc
4,6%/nm th t l tng trng kinh t trung
bnh tng ng l 7,3%/nm . Tuy nhin, trong
giai on 2007-2012, khi t l lm pht tng ln
mc 13,3%/nm th t l tng trng trung bnh
cng gim xung ch cn 6,3%/nm. c bit,
nm 2007 lm pht vt ln mc hai con s
(12,75%) th nm 2008 tng trng ch cn
6,3% (gim 2,2% so vi nm 2007), n nm
2009 tng trng tip tc gim xung ch t
5,3% [7].
Th hai, cc c quan chc nng cn phi
xc nh mt t l lm pht mc tiu t
to khung kh cho vic iu hnh cc chnh
sch v m nhm thc hin v duy tr thnh
cng t l lm pht thc t theo t l lm pht
mc tiu ny. Ngng lm pht ti cc quc gia
ASEAN c th c xem nh mt trong nhng
thng tin tham kho thit lp t l lm pht
mc tiu ti Vit Nam trong giai on ti.
Th ba, cc nh hoch nh chnh sch cn
lu l bi vit ny s dng d liu bng,
nhng ti ASEAN c mt s quc gia c t l
lm pht trung bnh mc kh thp trong giai
on 1990-2012 nh Singapore (2,03%/nm),
Brunei (1,3%/nm) nn chc chn ko
ngng lm pht ca c ASEAN xung mc
4%. T cho thy ngng lm pht ca Vit
Nam c th s cao hn mt vi phn trm so
vi ngng lm pht ca c ASEAN, ngha l
trong vi nm ti cc c quan chc nng nn n
nh t l lm pht mc tiu ca nn kinh t
7%. Bi v s liu thng k v nn kinh t Vit
Nam cho thy cc thi im lm pht tng vt
7%/nm th tng trng kinh t s khng bn
vng, t l tng trng a phn u st gim
trong cc nm tip theo.
Ti liu tham kho
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Estimation of Threshold Effects in the Relationship

between Inflation and Economic Growth in ASEAN Countries

L Thanh Tng
Tn c Thng University, 19 Nguyn Hu Th,
Tn Phong, District 7, H Ch Minh City, Vietnam

Abstract: The stable, sustainable development of the economy depends on many factors,
including curbing inflation at a moderate level. This paper aims to define the threshold point in the
relationship between inflation and economic growth in nine ASEAN countries by using panel data
over the period 1990-2012. The results show that the inflation threshold in the ASEAN countries was
four percent. If the inflation rate is lower than or equal to this threshold, the relationship between
inflation and economic growth is positive. Otherwise, if the inflation rate is above 4 percent, the
relationship between inflation and economic growth switches over to negative.
Keywords: Inflation threshold, economic growth, ASEAN countries.