9. NIE 12-90, April 1990, The’ Future of Eastern Europe (Key Judgments only) Fy Brest of Confidential a) ceri Intelligence cinemas The Future of Eastern Europe ccnp) National Inteligence Estimate This Estimate represents the views af the Director of Central intelligence ‘withthe advice and assistance of the US intetigence Community. ue 12.90 Son tit “857 1799. (Continued) Biactr of Gonfidontet NIE 12-90 The Future of Eastern Europe (cnr) Information avaiable as of 26 Apr 1990 was used inthe preparation ofthis Navona aligance Estate, The folowing ineligance ogeniaationsparicioated Inthe preparation ofthis Esumate ‘The Cantal nteligence Agency ‘The Detense Irteligence Agency The National Secuety Agency ‘The Feder Bureau of vestigation The Bureau af Ineligence and Research, Deparment of State ‘The Ofice of Ineligance Suppor, Department ofthe Treasury ‘abo parciating ‘The Office ofthe Doputy Chef of Sta forimeigence, Department of tre Army ‘Tho Ofice of the Director of Naval Intligence, Department ofthe Naw ‘Toe Assstant Chet of Sta, imagenes, Daparemont of he Ai Force The Dreotor af inaligence, Headquarters, Marine Corps This Esumote was approved fer publication by the [National Freignineligence Board. 400 1980 1809. (Continued) Seat The Future of Eastern Europe e-nr]— + The reolations in Eastern Enrope provide the basis for developing democracy and market economies. But this will not be a linear process, and a number of countries will continue to face political in- stability, ethnic turmoil, and economic backwardness. + Even with Western help, Eust European economies—excluding th (of East Germany—are likely to make only modest progress during the next five yeas. ly in the Balkans, where the lifting of Communist hegemony Uhreatens to revive old ethnic animostis, civil strife, and interstate tensions. The environmental nightmare will also persist. + West Europeans are better positioned to lead in shaping the East European future, but the United States has important advantages, among them the desire of East Europeans for a counterweight to Soviet and German inflence, (o> 181