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Geoforum 32 (2001) 405414
www.elsevier.com/locate/geoforum
Abstract
Complexity theory has captured the attention of the scientic community to the extent where its proponents tout it as a dominant
scientic trend. Geographers, and environmental, human, and regional planners have applied complexity theory to topics ranging
from cultural transmission and economic growth to the braiding of rivers. While such a wide array of applications is heartening
because it speaks to the utility of complexity theory, it is necessary to move beyond the hyperbole and critically examine the nature
of complexity research. The author therefore provides an overview of the evolution of complexity research, establishes a preliminary
typology of complexity approaches with their advantages and drawbacks, and identies areas of further research. 2001 Elsevier
Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
0016-7185/01/$ - see front matter 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
PII: S 0 0 1 6 - 7 1 8 5 ( 0 0 ) 0 0 0 3 5 - X
406 S.M. Manson / Geoforum 32 (2001) 405414
that there are separate kinds of complexity that have plexity research contends that systems have emergent or
dierent and sometimes conicting assumptions and synergistic characteristics that cannot be understood
conclusions. This said, algorithmic, deterministic, and without reference to sub-component relationships. Of
aggregate complexity share more than just the ``com- course, this idea can be traced back to Aristotle, so it is
plexity'' label. To a certain extent, they share the same important to note that complexity research is also con-
historical antecedents, as explored below. In disciplinary cerned with how systems change and evolve over time
terms, researchers often apply dierent kinds of com- due to interaction of their constituent parts.
plexity to a single problem with the understanding that
these approaches are complementary. Similarly, given
that all three kinds of complexity are interested in the 2. Algorithmic complexity
often mathematically intractable aspects of systems,
they regularly rely on computational settings of non- Algorithmic complexity theory makes two relatively
linear mathematics and software simulation. Most im- ancillary contributions to complexity theory overall.
portantly, all three kinds of complexity are concerned One measure of algorithmic complexity calculates the
with how the nature of a system may be characterized eort required to solve a mathematical problem. In
with reference to its constituent parts in a non-reduc- some cases, a problem is so complex or specied in such
tionist manner. a way that it is unsolvable. Spatial statistics and geo-
Taken together, these three kinds of complexity re- graphic information science face this kind of complexity.
search are a recent body of work. Complexity theory, Some problems, such as enumerating all permutations in
however, may be traced back to conceptual antecedents a resource allocation situation or nding the shortest
such as the ``philosophy of organism'' (Whitehead, path through a network, are very hard to solve in non-
1925), neural networks (McCulloch and Pitts, 1943), trivial cases. This rst form of algorithmic complexity is
cybernetics (Wiener, 1961), and cellular automata (von useful because it guides practitioners in their choice of
Neumann, 1966). Complexity theory also owes much to technique.
general systems theory given shared foci of anti-reduc- The second, more touted aspect of algorithmic
tionism and holistic appreciation of system intercon- complexity lies in information theory (Chaitin, 1992).
nectedness (von Bertalany, 1968). The link between This body of work identies complexity as the simplest
general systems theory and complexity is seldom rec- computational algorithm that can reproduce system
ognized (Phelan, 1999), possibly because the former was behavior. With information theory, one may condense
largely rejected by academics. During the rise of general the myriad interactions between system components
systems theory, some geographers found it potentially into simple measures. The use of information theory
useful as a means of modeling environmental systems ranges from classifying remotely sensed imagery
(Bennett and Chorley, 1978). Others, however, consid- (Eastman, 1999) to considering the role of ecological
ered it irrelevant to social concerns (Chisholm, 1967) community structure on biodiversity (Norton and
and, in general, geographers have abandoned systems Ulanowicz, 1992). Information theoretic concepts of
theory (Johnston, 1994). complexity take an epistemological cast when mental
If complexity theory is an outgrowth of previous experiments establish limits to knowledge. The brain,
work and of general systems theory in particular, what for instance, is a computing device with a limited in-
does complexity research oer that previous eorts did formation processing capacity and is therefore limited
not? First, complexity often concerns non-linear rela- to answering to certain kinds of problems (Traub,
tionships between constantly changing entities. Systems 1996).
theory, in contrast, studies static entities linked by linear The key diculty in applying algorithmic complexity
relationships dened by ows and stocks (e.g., of en- to social or environmental phenomena, especially when
ergy, information). Second, this stocks-and-ows per- positing computational limits of knowledge, is that it
spective emphasizes quantities of ow and not may incorrectly equate data with knowledge. Vast
necessarily their quality. Complexity research employs realms of human endeavor, such as lived experience and
techniques such as articial intelligence to examine meaning given to it, lie beyond algorithmic expressions.
qualitative characteristics such as the symbolic content Even broad forms of description, such as language, are
of communication. Third, complexity research concerns necessarily vague because meaning lies in varying in-
how complex behavior evolves or emerges from rela- scriptions and readings of texts, landscapes, or experi-
tively simple local interactions between system compo- ence (Barnes and Duncan, 1991). Critics of geographic
nents over time. Systems theory instead favors information science raise a similar issue with the short-
simplication and parameterization of ows and stocks, comings of computational representation of spatial
a process that assumes that the system exists in equi- phenomena (Pickles, 1995). Algorithmic conceptions of
librium and therefore negates the need to examine complexity allow demarcation of the boundaries of
changing relationships between system elements. Com- certain types of knowledge but certainly not others.
S.M. Manson / Geoforum 32 (2001) 405414 407
3.1.4. Deterministic chaos, strange attractors, and frac- lation growth example, for instance, where are the
tals variables for culture, the state, or migration? If we could
For any initial pairing of a and X examined so far, it nd and defend appropriate choices, how would we pick
is possible to identify distinct attractors. There is, just two or three? Similarly, a large amount of time se-
however, one key exception. When a 3:8, the popu- ries data is required to prove that a system has deter-
lation variable, X, becomes completely random and ministic complexity. Even when data exists, fewer
chaotic with no discernable attractor. There is no reason systems than anticipated are in fact deterministically
as such for this particular value; it is simply inherent to chaotic (Zimmer, 1999) or catastrophic (Back, 1997)
the system. In terms of chaos theory, the system is not because characterizing a human system through a few
truly chaotic because a single deterministic equation simple variables or deterministic equations is often just
underlies seemingly random behavior, so we term the too, in a word, simplistic (Kellert, 1993). There are also
system deterministically chaotic given its behavior when hazards in conating pattern with process, as visited in
a 3:8. Of course, there are millions of seemingly cha- debates over urban form or city rank-size rules. Urban
otic systems and discovering if an equation can describe land use, for instance, may have a fractal pattern but
any given system is dicult. Fortunately, while a de- this knowledge only goes so far in aiding our under-
terministically chaotic system may lack normal attrac- standing of how it came to be that way.
tors, it does possess at least one strange attractor, a value Admittedly, eects such as sensitivity to initial con-
or set of values towards which system variables tend ditions or strange attractors can spur new thinking
towards over time but never quite reach. To determine if about accepted phenomena, especially when used in an
a system possesses a strange attractor, one draws a analogical manner. Postmodernists have embraced de-
Poincare graph, which simply refers to removing time as terministic complexity in this way (Hayles, 1991). De-
one of the axes of a graph and instead plotting data terministic complexity is characterized by contextuality,
points (sampled at a regular temporal interval) along complexity, and contingency; these themes exemplify
dimensions described by system variables (see Mainzer, postmodernism (Warf, 1993). Sensitivity to initial con-
1996). A Poincare graph of a truly chaotic system ap- ditions and bifurcation undermine totalizing discourses
pears random. The graph of a deterministically chaotic by supporting unpredictability and the search for frag-
system, however, traces system variables moving along mentation and discontinuity. Cartwright (1991), for in-
endlessly dierent paths that are simultaneously con- stance, argues that urban planning should take into
strained to a regular, geometric region of the graph. This account chaos theory. Given the potential for small
region is the strange attractor for the system. Just as changes in one place to result in large changes elsewhere,
normal attractors are values towards which system planning must be sensitive to the transformative eect of
variables tend, strange attractors roughly delimit the local interactions. Postmodern techniques such as de-
possible values of system variables. construction may also draw on chaos theory through a
Finally, there are fractals, complicated self-referential shared focus on iteration and recursion as a means of
patterns that also happen to be strange attractors whose destabilizing systems (Hayles, 1989).
patterns remain unchanging regardless of the scale of The postmodern concern for focusing on local inter-
observation. The structure of a tree, for instance, is actions inuences geographic concepts of scale. A
fractal because the same branching arrangement is ap- commonly accepted notion of scale is the nested hier-
parent at scales ranging from the entire tree down to the archy, a set of areal extents in which it is assumed that
veins in its leaves. This property of fractals, scale-in- the sum of all components of one level, such as counties
variance, has led geographers to look for fractal patterns or consumers, produces one component at a larger scale,
in phenomena ranging from urban form to coastlines such as states or households (Haggett, 1965). In this
(White and Engelen, 1993; Pecknold et al., 1997). Re- kind of spatial hierarchy, local context ne-tunes large-
searchers hope to understand phenomena that have scale processes. In light of the buttery eect, however, a
fractal patterns because the processes that give rise to local action may directly aect those at a larger scale
these patterns may be operating across scales. If so, without moving through intermediary scales. Similarly,
understanding how a system works at one scale may local action, instead of being dampened out, may be-
lead to understanding how it works other scales (Man- come amplied through the non-linear interactions be-
delbrot, 1977). tween components across scales. The impact of
individual currency speculators on the economies of
3.2. Reections on deterministic complexity entire countries exemplies this interaction, as individ-
ual actions are quickly scaled up through nancial net-
Deterministic complexity is an interesting but marred works to have profound eects on large-scale
concept. It is hard to explain a seemingly chaotic system phenomena (Jeanne, 1997).
when we are limited to two or three key variables that Contrary to the postmodern view of the importance
dene deterministically complex systems. In the popu- of sensitivity to initial conditions, structuralist and
S.M. Manson / Geoforum 32 (2001) 405414 409
with other plants and animals (Allen and Hoekstra, whereby system-wide characteristics do not result from
1992). superposition (i.e., additive eects of system compo-
nents) but instead from interactions among components
4.1.3. Environment (Lansing and Kremer, 1993). An economy has emergent
A complex system owes its existence to relationships qualities such as volatility and investor ``herd behavior''
with its environment, dened as anything outside of the that are commonly attributed to irrationality or imper-
system, although this division may not be sharp. Natu- fect markets but in fact are intrinsic to rational, local
ral resources, international markets, and human desires interactions and their non-linear consequences (Andre-
may be considered external to a national economy but oni and Miller, 1995).
the boundaries are permeable. External to an ecosystem Emergent phenomena may lie beyond our ability to
are abiotic aspects of the earth such as its crust and predict or control. There is certainly enough under-
climate. Regardless of the actual boundary between a standing of an economy to allow for intervention in
system and the environment, the former passes infor- major sub-systems with an eye towards changing some
mation, matter and energy through its internal structure. emergent quality, such as regulating a major industry in
The actions and interactions of system components order to stabilize prices. It is dicult, however, to an-
eventually create outow from the system into the en- ticipate changes beyond the short term because other
vironment. components of the system adjust to this intervention in
addition to other changes in the environment (You-
4.1.4. Learning and memory ssefmir and Huberman, 1997). Similarly, as we increas-
A complex system is not beholden to the environment ingly discover to our chagrin, any single change to an
it actively shapes, reacts, and anticipates. A system ecosystem can have far-reaching, large-scale eects due
``remembers'' through the persistence of internal struc- to not understanding emergence from complexity
ture (Holland, 1992). Components and sub-systems with (Lansing and Kremer, 1993).
the capacity to accommodate the inux of energy,
matter, and information from the environment will 4.1.6. Change and evolution
grow. Regularly occurring external relationships en- A complex system constantly changes, largely
courage the growth of the same set of components and through three dierent types of transition. First, a key
sub-systems. The memory of an economic system exists characteristic of a complex system is self-organization,
in various places, such as business plans and the expe- the property that allows it to change its internal struc-
rience of individuals. Ecological information lies largely ture in order to better interact with its environment.
in the form varying congurations and density of rela- Self-organization allows a system to learn through
tionships between and within species. piecemeal changes in internal structure.
A complex system can deal with truly novel situations Second, a system becomes dissipative when outside
because it has a wide array of internal components and forces or internal perturbations drive it to a highly
sub-systems linked by complex relationships. Some unorganized state before suddenly crossing into one
subset of these components may have some ability to with more organization (Schieve and Allen, 1982).
accommodate a novel relationship. In the rare cases Economies can be dissipative when confronting large
when no suitable components or sub-systems exist, the shifts in the nature of their relationships with the en-
system cannot respond to new relationships with the vironment. Introduction of new technologies, such as
environment, with potentially catastrophic results. in the industrial revolution, can spur radical change in
Concern for this kind of system collapse lies in the drive the internal structure of an economy (Harvey and
to protect biodiversity. The destruction of complex, di- Reed, 1994). The work of Holling (1978, 1995) illus-
verse internal relationships may lead to a lack of resil- trates how small disturbances such as pest infestations
ience and adaptability in ecosystems. When monocrops or re can trigger large-scale redistribution of resources
replace mixed agriculture or forest, for instance, the and connectivity within the internal structure of an
ecosystem is more susceptible to rapid and potentially ecosystem.
adverse shifts in the environment, such as the intro- Third, the term self-organized criticality refers to the
duction of foreign species or climate change (Wilson, ability of complex systems to balance between ran-
1988). domness and stasis. Instead of occasionally weathering a
crisis, a system can reach a critical point where its in-
4.1.5. Emergence ternal structure lies on the brink of collapsing without
The capacities of a complex system are greater than actually doing so (Bak and Chen, 1991). Self-organized
the sum of its constituent parts. A system can have criticality is a form of self-organization where the rate of
emergent qualities that are not analytically tractable internal restructuring is almost too rapid for the system
from the attributes of internal components (Baas and to accommodate but necessary for its eventual survival
Emmeche, 1997). Emergence is a function of synergism, (Scheinkman and Woodford, 1994). Research on self-
S.M. Manson / Geoforum 32 (2001) 405414 411
organized criticality is largely restricted to ecological between self-organized criticality and the view of for-
and biogeophysical systems (e.g., Andrade Jr. et al., ces of Lyotard (1984), creating social diversity and
1995; Correig et al., 1997) but there is a small and novelty through dissension and destabilization of the
growing body of work on urban and economic systems status quo (Funtowitcz and Ravetz, 1994; Cilliers,
(Sanders, 1996; Allen, 1997). 1998). The constant repositioning of entities and re-
lationships within a complex system supports the
4.2. Reections on aggregate complexity postmodern view of a multiplicity of localized, yet
networked, social and political discourses. The mean-
The chief value of aggregate complexity is its ing of language and knowledge is not crystallized and
challenge to conventional notions of stability and centralized but instead distributed and created through
change. Science in general sees systems of intercon- the interaction and competition of dierent viewpoints
nected elements, such as economies or ecologies, as (Cliord, 1988; Cilliers, 1998). Similarly, aggregate
stable entities. This view has been critical to the suc- complexity illustrates how relationships are more im-
cess of science. It is also useful, however, to see portant than attributes in dening the nature of
complex systems as constantly changing their internal components. This insight supports reconceptualization
structure and external environment through self-orga- of identity and representation, whereby a person is not
nization, dissipative behavior, and self-organized crit- limited to a singular identity but instead is situated in
icality. a web of relative power relations (Gibson-Graham,
Mainstream economics, for instance, studies stability 1993).
and repeated patterns, while complexity research is The notion of aggregate complexity creating emer-
interested in ``multiple equilibria, non-predictability, gence potentially addresses the micromacro distinc-
lock-in, ineciency, historical path dependence, and tion in issues such as the relationship between agency
asymmetry'' (Arthur, 1999, p. 108). Complexity also and structure. Social institutions, for instance, are both
questions the long-held assumption that ecosystems artifacts and dynamic processes that constitute, and are
evolve towards an unchanging ``climax'' structure constituted by, regularized behavior of their compo-
(Worster, 1985). It may be more fruitful to consider nent parts (Ostrom, 1990). There is a growing body of
ecological landscapes as existing in a constant state of research linking aggregate complexity to institutional
ux (Goerner, 1994; Philips, 1999). and organizational behavior using computer simula-
Unfortunately, it is dicult to employ insights gran- tions based on systems of software agents (Conte et al.,
ted by aggregate complexity. Dening the boundaries 1997).
and components of a system is problematic. It is also Another signicant body of research lies in exploring
necessary to adequately defend and characterize what emergence with cellular automata. These tessellations
constitutes learning, self-organization, and adaptation (e.g., grids) represent how the state of some phenome-
(Rapport, 1991). A conceptually coherent view of a non changes in time according to rules based on local-
complex system is hard to link to reality. Equilibrium- ized interactions of entities. Geographers have readily
oriented mathematics is not suited to dynamic, histori- adopted cellular automata given a conceptual resonance
cally dependent or transient phenomenon. Emergent with cellular geography (Wagner, 1997) and GeoAlge-
social phenomena can disappear when one reduces the bra (Couclelis, 1997). Cellular automata are used to
system into components or uses too many statistical model phenomena ranging from ecosystems (Hogeweg,
assumptions (Arthur, 1994). 1988; Ermentrout and Edelstein-Keshet, 1993) to urban
A potential answer to these methodological dicul- morphology (White and Engelen, 1993; Clarke et al.,
ties is the increasing sophistication of computer simu- 1996; Couclelis, 1997).
lation tools that allow ``exploratory simulation'' (Conte Although research on how macro-scale phenomena
and Gilbert, 1995; 4). Silicon-based simulation is a arise from micro-interaction continues apace, less ex-
manifestation of possible system outcomes that are not amined is the eect of macro-structure on the micro-
preordained and deterministic (Thrift, 1999). This said, scale. Seeing social norms as emerging from agent
model results can reect underlying programming more interaction, for instance, does not adequately address
than the phenomena modeled. Much work remains how norms aect agents (e.g., Blume, 1996; Gintis,
undone on means of classication, measurement, and 1997). Some denitions of emergence go so far as to
validation, particularly when distinguishing legitimate necessitate that lower level elements are unaware of their
results from modeling artifacts (Huberman and Glance, role in emergent phenomena (Forrest, 1991). As a result,
1993). complexity-based human system surrogates can fail be-
Aggregate complexity is not limited to computer cause they do not allow reexivity or individuals who
simulations. Postmodern and poststructural perspec- reason about features of which they are part.
tives link complexity to knowledge, language, and As with other forms of complexity, aggregate
epistemology. Several authors leverage the resonance complexity oers insight at a cost. It oers valuable
412 S.M. Manson / Geoforum 32 (2001) 405414
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