Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

U.S. Secretary of State Visits
Japan, South Korea and China
Carlyle A. Thayer
March 16, 2017

[client name deleted]

We seek your views in advance of U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillersons visit to Asia
this week. How will the two following developments impact on his visit?
Q1-- Which countries have the most to gain or lose from the visit? For what reasons?
ANSWER: Secretary Tillerson's visit has multiple objectives and the balance sheet will
differ for each country. Certainly Japan and South Korea will benefit from
reassurance by another Trump Administration Cabinet member that the U.S. will
stand by and assist its allies against North Korea. Japan will welcome continued
support for ballistic missile defence. South Korea is in the throes of electing a new
president and the leading contender reportedly supports a "sunshine policy" of
engagement with the North. This raises some doubts on the timetable to deploy the
THAAD ballistic missile system.
China is the loser in this case because it fears THAAD will allow the United States to
electronically reach into China and undermine China's nuclear deterrent. China will
continue to cooperate and compete with the United States. A renewed U.S. focus on
Northeast Asia, and the invocation of Article 5 of the US-Japan mutual security treaty
will not be welcomed in Beijing. U.S. engagement will be viewed as emboldening
Japans Abe government.
Q2-- How will China respond to Tillerson's threats of sanctions against North Korea
and on trying to contain Chinese maritime expansion, assuming both topics are on
the agenda?
ANSWER: One of Tillerson's objectives during his visit to Beijing is to set up a summit
meeting between president Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in April. My assessment is
that both sides will have to agree to disagree on both issues. North Korea's
provocations are aimed at both the U.S.-South Korea/Japan alliances and at China
for pressuring North Korea. Chinese sanctions have not resulted in any moderation
of North Korean behaviour. China is likely to hold to the present line, make
enforcement of sanctions more effective but hold back on heaping more pressure on
North Korea. China does not want the outbreak of armed conflict or the collapse of
the North Korean regime.
 2

China will push back on any attempt by the U.S. to curtail its activities in the South
China Sea. China will argue that the U.S. should exercise restraint and not undermine
the present trend towards dialogue between China and the Philippines and other
ASEAN members. China just announced that a draft Code of Conduct has been
drawn up that will now be considered by all parties. China will win to the extent that
Tillerson agrees to disagree and leave discussion of these matters to the two
presidents. China will run true to course and urge the U.S. to cooperate on global
issues. Since the Trump Administration doesn't seem to have a policy for the South
China Sea the status quo will prevail. It remains to be seen whether Xi Jinping will
repeat his September 2015 promise to President Obama in the White House Rose
Garden not to militarize the South China Sea. In sum, China wins if the presidential
summit at Mar a Largo goes ahead and the two leaders give the appearance of
progress on North Korea.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, U.S. Secretary of State Visits Japan, South
Korea and China, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, March 16, 2017. All
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.