22/03/2017 BarclaysEconomicsResearch|InstantInsights

EconomicsResearch|InstantInsights
21March2017

FabioFois +390263722637 fabio.fois@barclays.com Barclays,UK Completed:21Mar17,11:24GMT

FabriceMontagne +44(0)2077733277 fabrice.montagne@barclays.com Barclays,UK Released:21Mar17,11:24GMT
HenrySkeoch +44(0)2077737917 henry.skeoch@barclays.com Barclays,UK

UKEconomicsResearch
FebruaryCPI:Inflationisallaround

CPI RPI
Actual:2.3%y/y Actual:3.2%y/yIndex:268.4
Barclays:2.2%y/y Barclays:3.0%y/yIndex:267.9
Consensus:2.1%y/y Consensus:2.9%y/yIndex:267.5

FebruaryCPIandRPIinflationjumpedtotheirhighestlevelsinceSeptember2013,pushedupbyrisingfuelcosts,butthestrengthofcoreinflationsurprisedaswe
Withtodaysreleaseexceedingourexpectationsandinflationinservicesaswellasnonenergyindustrialgoodsgatheringmomentum,weseeupsiderisktoour
inflationforecast.

Headlineandcoreinflationpicksupfasterthanexpected

CPIinflationjumped0.5ppto2.3%,exceedingouraboveconsensusforecast.Componentdynamicswerelargelyasexpected,albeitstrongerthanwehadanticipated.Fuelandlubricant
inflationcontinuestorise,jumpingto19.4pcfrom16.8pcpreviously,whilefoodandnonalcoholicbeveragespricesroseto0.2pcfrom0.5pcpreviously.

Themostinterestingdevelopmentswaswithincoreinflationwhereservicespricessupportedunderlyingpricesbyaddingapproximately0.15pptotheincreaseinthey/ygrowthrate
betweenJanuaryandFebruarywhilecoregoodspricessupportwasalmostneutralthistime.Onatrendbasis,supportbyservicesandNEIGhasbeenstrengtheninginrecentmonthsa
businesseshavelikelyaimedtopassoncostincreasesagainstabackdropofsolidhouseholdconsumption(Figure3).

TheupsidesurprisetoourRPIforecastwasbroadlysimilartothatwithinourCPIforecast,aswellasfromafewspecificfactors.TheRPICPIbasiswidened,whereaswehadexpecteditt
holdconstant.Thewideningwasdrivenbyawideningoftheformulaeffect,whichisalmostimpossibletopredictbutislikelytohavebeendrivenbyincreasedvolatilityatthemicro
componentlevel.Thecontributionofhousingdepreciation(houseprices)alsoincreased,mostlyduetotheweightallocatedtodepreciationincreasinginthe2017weightsforRPI,which
takeeffectintheFebruarydata.

TheONShasswitchedheadlineUKinflationcoveragefromCPItoCPIH

TheCPIHmeasureisidenticaltoCPI,withtheadditionofOwnerOccupiersHousingCosts(OOH)andCouncilTax.OOHiscalculatedusingarentalequivalencemethod,soimportantlyth
housingcomponentofCPIHdoesnotnecessarilytrackhousepricesandislikelytobelessvolatile.Asthingsstand,theBoEInflationTargetremains2%CPIandwethereforeintendto
continuetofocusourforecastingeffortsonthismeasure.WeplantoproduceaCPIHforecastinduecourse,andwillbeginpublishingashorttermCPIHprojectionaheadofthedatafrom
nextmonth.

Figure1:UKCPIinflationsummarytable

Source:ONS,HaverAnalytics,BarclaysResearch*Intheeventofasignificantweightchangebetweenyears,theeffectontheheadlineinflationratemaybegreaterthanthissimpleapproximation

Figure2:UKRPIinflationsummarytable

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Source:ONS,HaverAnalytics,BarclaysResearch*Intheeventofasignificantweightchangebetweenyears,theeffectontheheadlineinflationratemaybegreaterthanthissimpleapproximation

Figure3:contributionofservicesandNEIGtocoreinflationontherise

Source:ONS,BarclaysResearch

Analyst(s)Certification(s):
We,FabioFois,FabriceMontagneandHenrySkeoch,herebycertify(1)thattheviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportaccuratelyreflectourpersonalviewsaboutanyorallofthe
subjectsecuritiesorissuersreferredtointhisresearchreportand(2)nopartofourcompensationwas,isorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendationsor
viewsexpressedinthisresearchreport.

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