Wireless network traffic in AsiaPacific: forecasts and analysis 20132018

Research Forecast Report

Wireless network traffic in AsiaPacific: forecasts and

analysis 20132018
December 2013
Rupert Wood

Analysys Mason Limited 2013

 Wireless network traffic in AsiaPacific: forecasts and analysis 20132018 2

About this report

This report is based on our Wireless network traffic worldwide: Figure 1: Summary of report coverage [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013]
forecasts and analysis 20132018, and focuses in more detail
on the AsiaPacific region. Geographical Major KPIs
coverage
It presents 5-year forecasts of wireless data traffic in 2 regions
13 countries are Cellular data Wi-Fi data
and 13 countries. It analyses the key trends in, and drivers modelled individually:
and inhibitors of, data traffic. The forecast dataset covers: Australia Total volume and Total volume and
average usage for: average usage for
cellular data data delivered over mobile (cellular) Bangladesh
China handsets handsets
networks to: handsets (typically smartphones); mid-screen mid-screen devices mid-screen
Hong Kong
devices (typically tablets); USB modems, routers and other India USB modems devices, split by
standalone data devices; and M2M devices and routers mobile-connected
Indonesia and Wi-Fi-only
Japan M2M
Wi-Fi data data delivered over private Wi-Fi connections devices
Malaysia Traffic split by public laptops (public Wi-Fi
(at home or business premises) to handsets and mid-
Pakistan and private usage connectivity only)
screen devices, and data delivered to all devices using Singapore
public Wi-Fi connectivity. Traffic split by public
South Korea and private usage
Taiwan
The report assesses the enablers of future capacity on
Thailand
wireless networks.
It also analyses the trends in private and public usage, and We have adjusted some figures for the larger economies that
their effect on the use of cellular and Wi-Fi connectivity. were included in our worldwide network traffic forecast
published in October 2013. This is because:
This report is based on Analysys Masons research and
modelling, and consumer surveys on tablet usage. the added granularity results in adjustments to the
rounded-up figures for regions
Our forecasts are informed and sense-checked by
on-the-ground regional market expertise. new information has become available.

Analysys Mason Limited 2013

 Wireless network traffic in AsiaPacific: forecasts and analysis 20132018
Contents
Slide no.
7. Executive summary
8. Developed AsiaPacific growth rates will inevitably slow down
9. Emerging AsiaPacific will have the highest growth rates in the world for
cellular data traffic between 2013 and 2018
10. Developed AsiaPacific trends
11. The developed AsiaPacific region has some of the highest cellular data
usage levels in the world, but not always the fastest growth
12. Cellular data traffic will grow by a factor of 6.1 between 2013 and 2018
in developed AsiaPacific economies
13. Traffic in developed AsiaPacific economies is dominated by handsets
14. As traffic moves onto 4G, it becomes more asymmetric and more peaky
15. Public Wi-Fi is declining in importance, and social factors continue to
limit the use of private Wi-Fi offloading
16. Developed AsiaPacific markets
17. Mobile data traffic growth in Australia will be average for the region and
the modem/router segment will continue to be important
18. Hong Kongs cellular data demand continues to be very high, but this
may not be sustainable
19. Japan will experience continued strong growth in mobile data traffic,
thanks to high potential capacity and a strong substitutive effect
20. Singapore cellular data traffic growth will be limited by tight supply
21. Singapore has high public Wi-Fi usage for the region
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Slide no.
22. Growth in South Koreas cellular data traffic will be broadly linear for the
next 4 years
23. Taiwan may continue to be supply constrained even after the launch of
700MHz LTE
24. Emerging AsiaPacific trends
25. Usage remains broadly correlated to income levels in the emerging
economies of the region
26. Cellular data traffic will grow by a factor of 11.4 between 2013 and 2018
in emerging AsiaPacific economies
27. Handsets will dominate cellular data traffic, but less so than in
developed AsiaPacific
28. Public Wi-Fi has a major role in the emerging economies, but we
forecast that its importance will start to decline towards the end of the
decade
29. Emerging AsiaPacific markets
30. The rate of traffic growth in Bangladesh will accelerate as 3G becomes
more widely available, but low take-up rates will constrain ARPU
31. Cellular data traffic growth multiples in China will continue to be limited
by Wi-Fi
32. Chinas regulator MIIT has stated that TD-LTE will be the default standard
for 4G in China, and is expected to issue licences towards the end of
2013
33. In China, public Wi-Fi has developed in a unique way
 Wireless network traffic in AsiaPacific: forecasts and analysis 20132018 4

Contents

Slide no.

34. Substitutive mobile broadband will continue to be a significant part

of mobile data traffic in India
35. Growth in Indian mobile data traffic is currently very strong
36. Difficulties in refarming spectrum will limit LTE expansion in Indonesia
37. Operator traffic statistics show strong growth in Indonesia, but the case
for offloading is clear
38. The rate of traffic growth in Malaysia will be between the emerging and
developed AsiaPacific growth rates
39. The rate of cellular data traffic growth in Malaysia will depend on the
extent to which FTTx coverage is extended
40. Mobile will provide most basic Internet access needs in Pakistan
41. Thailand has experienced severe supply-side constraints
42. Data sources and methodology
43. Data sources and methodology
44. Data growth will not surpass the constraints of technology, spectrum
and infrastructure costs, and is further limited by demand-side
complications
45. About the author and Analysys Mason
46. About the author
47. About Analysys Mason
48. Research from Analysys Mason
49. Consulting from Analysys Mason

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 Wireless network traffic in AsiaPacific: forecasts and analysis 20132018
List of figures
Figure 1: Summary of report coverage
Figure 2: Average monthly cellular data usage per head of population,
2013, and 5-year growth multiple for mobile data traffic, 2013
2018, AsiaPacific
Figure 3: 5-year growth multiples for cellular data traffic, by region, 2013
2018
Figure 4: Average monthly cellular data usage per head of population by
country, developed AsiaPacific and Sweden, 2013
Figure 5: Cellular data traffic growth rates by country, developed Asia
Pacific, 20112012 and 20122013
Figure 6: Cellular data traffic by country, developed AsiaPacific, 2012
2018
Figure 7: 5-year growth multiples for cellular data traffic by country,
developed AsiaPacific, 20132018
Figure 8: Cellular data traffic by device type, developed AsiaPacific,
20112018
Figure 9: Cellular data traffic by device generation, developed AsiaPacific,
20112018
Figure 10: Downlink:uplink ratio in cellular data networks by mobile operator
location and network type, 2013
Figure 11: Typical busy-hour data traffic as a percentage of total daily data
traffic, 3G-only and mainly 4G operators
Figure 12: Handset and connected tablet traffic by network type, developed
AsiaPacific, 20112018
Figure 13: Cellular data traffic by device type, Australia, 20122018
Figure 14: Active mobile SIMs by device type, Australia, 20122018
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Figure 15: Cellular data traffic by device type, Hong Kong, 20122018
Figure 16: Active mobile SIMs by device type, Hong Kong, 20122018
Figure 17: Cellular data traffic by device type, Japan, 20122018
Figure 18: Active mobile SIMs by device type, Japan, 20122018
Figure 19: Mobile data traffic by device type, Singapore, 20122018
Figure 20: Active mobile SIMs by device type, Singapore, 20122018
Figure 21: Wireless@SG user numbers and hours of usage per user per
month, Singapore, 20102012
Figure 22: Wireless data traffic by network type, Singapore, 20102013
Figure 23: Cellular data traffic by device type, South Korea, 20122018
Figure 24: Active mobile SIMs by device type, South Korea, 20122018
Figure 25: Cellular data traffic by device type, Taiwan, 20122018
Figure 26: Active mobile SIMs by device type, Taiwan, 20122018
Figure 27: Average monthly cellular data usage per head of population and
GDP per capita (nominal) by country, emerging AsiaPacific,
2013
Figure 28: Cellular data traffic by country, emerging AsiaPacific, 20122018
Figure 29: 5-year growth multiples for cellular data traffic by country,
emerging AsiaPacific, 20132018
Figure 30: Cellular data traffic by device type, emerging AsiaPacific,
20112018
Figure 31: Cellular data traffic by device generation, emerging AsiaPacific,
20112018
Figure 32: Handset and connected tablet traffic by network type, emerging
AsiaPacific, 20112018
 Wireless network traffic in AsiaPacific: forecasts and analysis 20132018 6

List of figures

Figure 33: Cellular data traffic by device type, Bangladesh, 20122018

Figure 34: Active mobile SIMs by device type, Bangladesh, 20122018
Figure 35: Cellular data traffic by device type, China, 20122018
Figure 36: Active mobile SIMs by device type, China, 20122018
Figure 37: 4G deployment plans by operator, China
Figure 38: China Mobiles wireless data traffic by network type, 20102012
Figure 39: Public wireless data by network type, China, 20112018
Figure 40: Cellular data traffic by device type, India, 20122018
Figure 41: Active mobile SIMs by device type, India, 20122018
Figure 42: Cellular data traffic by operator, India, 1Q 20124Q 2012
Figure 43: Cellular data traffic by device type, Indonesia, 20122018
Figure 44: Active mobile SIMs by device type, Indonesia, 20122018
Figure 45: Cellular data traffic by operator, Indonesia, 20102012
Figure 46: Cellular data traffic by device type, Malaysia, 20122018
Figure 47: Active mobile SIMs by device type, Malaysia, 20122018
Figure 48: Operators spectrum holdings by band following allocations in
2012, Malaysia
Figure 49: Cellular data traffic by device type, Pakistan, 20122018
Figure 50: Active mobile SIMs by device type, Pakistan, 20122018
Figure 51: Cellular data traffic by device type, Thailand, 20122018
Figure 52: Active mobile SIMs by device type, Thailand, 20122018
Figure 53: The dimensions of mobile data network capacity expansion

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 Wireless network traffic in AsiaPacific: forecasts and analysis 20132018 20

Singapore cellular data traffic growth will be limited by tight supply

Singapores three operators all had city-wide HSPA in place Figure 19: Mobile data traffic by device type, Singapore, 20122018 [Source:
before launching LTE in 2011 and 2012. This explains the Analysys Mason, 2013]
historically high levels of usage in Singapore. Traffic has not 400
surged since the introduction of LTE, and long-term growth is 350
under 40% per year. 300
3G/4G modem/router

Traffic (PB)
250
The regulator IDA auctioned 270MHz of spectrum in June 200
3G/4G mid-screen
2013 150MHz of spectrum in the 1800MHz band and 150 4G handset
120MHz in the 2.5GHz band. The rights will not come into 100 3G handset
use until 2015 for 2.5GHz and 2017 for 1800MHz, and 50 2G
licence holders will be obliged to deliver coverage at street 0
level and on Singapores public transport network. 40MHz of

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018
the 2.5GHz band was set aside for a potential new entrant,
but no such bidder emerged. Therefore, Singapore will
Figure 20: Active mobile SIMs by device type, Singapore, 20122018
continue to have three operators for a while yet, which will
[Source: Analysys Mason, 2013]
potentially keep prices high and usage growth subdued.
10
At the time of the auctions, SingTel and StarHub dramatically 9

Active SIMs (million)

8
reduced basic data caps on handset plans from 12GB per 7 3G/4G modem/router
month to 1GB or 2GB. Given that mean usage levels on 6
3G/4G mid-screen
postpaid were higher than 2GB per SIM per month, this is 5
bound to have an impact on cellular network usage levels in 4 4G handset
3
the short term. 3G handset
2
1 2G
Additional spectrum release, refarmed spectrum and small-
0
cell roll-out should add extra capacity midway through the 2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018
forecast period.

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 Wireless network traffic in AsiaPacific: forecasts and analysis 20132018 28

Public Wi-Fi has a major role in the emerging economies, but we forecast
that its importance will start to decline towards the end of the decade
Public Wi-Fi has a significant role in some of the emerging Figure 32: Handset and connected tablet traffic by network type, emerging
AsiaPacific markets. AsiaPacific, 20112018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013]

100%
China: China Mobile was forced to use Wi-Fi on a massive

Percentage of traffic
scale to subscribers and non-subscribers because some 80%
popular handsets were not compatible with its TD-SCDMA Private Wi-Fi
60%
network. Other operators do not have the same problems, Public Wi-Fi
but have rolled out millions of access points. 40%
Cellular
Indonesia: Some delays in network roll-out and reliability, 20%
plus demand-side factors, limit spending on cellular data. 0%

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Thailand: State-funded roll-out of public Wi-Fi and severe
delays in 3G roll-out have limited cellular data usage.
However, limited take-up of Wi-Fi-compatible handsets has
constrained Wi-Fis impact.
Where fixed infrastructure is poor, public Wi-Fis share of
traffic will be more limited even if the demand-side factors
are in place. In some poorer markets, public Wi-Fi may even
be backhauled by 3G, although public Wi-Fi can be a
significant driver of fixed broadband in these markets too.
Major initiatives for public Wi-Fi are underway in some markets.
Telkom Indonesias WiFi.id plan aims to set up 10 million
access points across the country by 2015. Google
launched the very inexpensive public Wi-Fi service Google
Passport for Android users in Indonesia in October 2013.
2018
The ICT Ministry in Thailand is co-ordinating a state-funded
roll-out of free Wi-Fi at 400 000 access points across
urban Thailand by the end of 2014. The network will
eventually be operated by TOT and CAT Telecom.
In 2012, the Kuala Lumpur authorities made Wi-Fi availability
a condition of any restaurant or bar licence in the city.
The expansion of capacity through LTE will have the effect of
reducing prices to a level that will make recourse to Wi-Fi
unnecessary for many handset users. Hence, we would
expect its share of traffic to begin to diminish towards the end
of the decade.

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 Wireless network traffic in AsiaPacific: forecasts and analysis 20132018 45

Executive summary

Developed AsiaPacific trends

Developed AsiaPacific markets

Emerging AsiaPacific trends

Emerging AsiaPacific markets

Data sources and methodology

About the author and Analysys Mason

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 Wireless network traffic in AsiaPacific: forecasts and analysis 20132018 46

About the author

Rupert Wood (Principal Analyst) is the lead analyst for Analysys Masons Fixed Networks research programme. His
primary areas of specialisation include next-generation networks, long-term industry strategy and forecasting the
dynamics of convergence and substitution across fixed and mobile platforms. Rupert regularly contributes to the
international press on a wide range of telecoms subjects and has been quoted by The Times, The Economist,
Business Week, Telecommunications Online and La Tribune. Rupert has a PhD from the University of Cambridge,
where he was a Lecturer before joining Analysys Mason.

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 Wireless network traffic in AsiaPacific: forecasts and analysis 20132018 47

About Analysys Mason

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