Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

United States: Tillersons Asia
Trip, End of Pivot, What Next?
Carlyle A. Thayer
March 22, 2017

[client name deleted]

Q1. What is your assessment about the results of the first trip to Asia by U.S.
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson? Does it necessarily reflect any new position of the
U.S. government?
ANSWER: Secretary Tillerson had two main objectives for his first official trip to
Northeast Asia and both were related to North Korea. His first objective was to firm
up the trilateral alliance between Japan, South Korea and the United States and
present a united front on how to approach the North Korean issue. Tillersons
second objective was to set the agenda for the expected informal summit between
president Donald Trump and Xi Jinping at Mar-a-Lago in Florida in early April.
At this point in time it appears that Tillerson achieved modest success. Although he
held discussions with South Koreas acting president, the country will hold a
presidential election shortly and a new president will take office. It is clear that both
Japan and South Korea want U.S. reassurance and guarantees to deal with the threat
posed by North Koreas development of ballistic missiles. But it is uncertain if the
two countries can patch up their differences of the comfort women issue dating
more than five decades ago.
Tillersons trip to China seemingly resulted in an agreement to disagree on how to
deal with the North Korean issue. China wants a halt to the deployment of the
Theatre High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) anti-ballistic missile system and for
both Pyongyang and Washington to meet together. The U.S. wants China to increase
sanctions on North Korea and refuses to talk to Pyongyang unless it commits to
denuclearization.
The summit meeting between Trump and Xi will be held in an informal setting at
Chinese insistence. This is to allow the two leaders to reach general agreement on
global issues and lay the basis for future discussions on contentious issues like North
Korean policy and trade relations.
Q2. Recently Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Susan
Thornton officially stated that rebalance/pivot was over. Although it can be
expected in the context of the Trump administration, what is your assessment when
hearing that from the top U.S. diplomat for East Asian policy?
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ANSWER: Too much emphasis has been put on Assistant Secretary Thorntons
remarks. It was always clear that the U.S. policy of rebalancing toward the Asia-
Pacific would expire at the end of President Obamas term of office. Rebalance was
an Obama brand name. The TPP was opposed by both Clinton and Trump and it is
now dead in the water. No matter who became the next president Hillary Clinton
or Donald Trump a new brand name would be developed for U.S. policy in the
region.
The fact that rebalance will no longer be used by Trump Administration officials will
not change U.S. fundamental national interests in the Asia-Pacific such as
maintaining alliances, trade and investment, and freedom of navigation and
overflight. The U.S. Pacific Fleet will still sail and fly over waters such as the South
China Sea in accordance with international law.
The U.S. National Security Council is now preparing a National Security Strategy that
is required by Congress. This will be the first official document that will set out
Trump strategy and policy globally and for the Asia-Pacific. It is clear that relations
with U.S. allies and China will be prominent but any Trump engagement with the
Asia-Pacific will have to be offset by Trumps priority on defeating the Islamic State.
Obama tried to end U.S. military involvement in the Middle East and pivot to Asia-
Pacific. The Middle East is likely to rise in the U.S. list of priorities under Trump.
Q3. If President Trump tends to give less priority to the Asia than his predecessor,
how will the competition between regional powers such as China, Japan and South
Korea evolve in order to fill in the power vacuum left by the U.S.?
ANSWER: Trumps Americas First policy and his predilection for unilateral action
have already spurred Japans Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to take a more assertive
leadership role. Japan is already seeking to enhance coordination and cooperation
with India and Australia. Prime Minister Modi is well disposed to cooperate with
Japan.
The vacuum being created by the new Trump Administration, with no coherent
policy in hand and many vacancies at senior official level, will be taken up in trilateral
and quadrilateral settings. Some of this will involve existing trilateral arrangements
such as U.S.-Japan-Australia and U.S.-Japan-India. The latter could expand to include
Australia and become quadrilateral. It is also likely the a multi-nodal system will gain
in prominence with middle powers such as South Korea working with like-minded
partners on issues of common concern.
It is also clear that Japan, Australia, and South Korea will also work with the United
States and encourage it to engage more with the Asia-Pacific.

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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.