Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

United States: Tillersons Asia
Trip and the South China Sea
Carlyle A. Thayer
March 21, 2017

[client name deleted]

We are watching closely Secretary of State Tillersons trip to three East Asian
countries. Among the many articles on the tour, we are particularly interested in this:
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN16O2V9?il=0 because the South China Sea
may have been mentioned.
We request your assessment of Secretarys visit and likely developments in the South
China Sea afterwards.
ANSWER: Rex Tillersons first visit to Northeast Asia as U.S. Secretary of State had two
main objectives: to arrange for an informal summit between presidents Donald Trump
and Xi Jinping and to discuss cooperation with China on dealing with the North Korean
situation.
Tillerson was at such pains to set the right context for U.S.-China cooperation that he
repeated standard Chinese formulations on how major power relations should be
conducted - non-confrontation, no conflict and mutual respect. It is clear that there
are differences on how to deal with Pyongyang. China wants to see direct talks
between North Korea and the United States. The United States would like to see a
tightening of sanctions by the international community, including China.
While President Trump and several Administration officials have commented critically
about Chinas behavior in the South China Sea, this issue has been overshadowed by
rising tensions on the Korean peninsula. The United States does not have a strategy
for the Asia-Pacific. The Trump Administration has been forced to deal with a potential
crisis on the Korean peninsula. All attention is on shoring up the U.S. alliances with
Japan and South Korea both bilaterally and trilaterally and enlisting Chinese
cooperation in dealing with North Korea. This means that South China Sea issues do
not have priority attention and are likely to be dealt with in very general terms at the
informal summit between the two presidents at Mar-a-Lago in early April.
China is quietly taking further steps to consolidate its control in the Spratly islands and
to test the Trump Administrations response. Recently, China has built structures on
all its seven features that could house surface-to-air missiles. A Chinese oceanographic
ship just conducted a survey near Benham Rise in waters claimed by the Philippines.
And China has announced plans to erect an environmental monitoring station on
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presently unoccupied Scarborough Shoal. If unchallenged this could be the first step
to China expanding a permanent civilian presence on Scarborough Shoal. So far the
U.S. has responded by sending the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier through the South
China Sea; it is now in South Korea. Beijing is testing whether President Trump values
cooperation with China on North Korea and other global issues more than
confrontation in the South China Sea.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, United States: Tillersons Asia Trip and the
South China Sea, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, March 21, 2017. All
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