You are on page 1of 3

TO: Interested Parties

FROM: Garin Hart Yang Research Group & Global Strategy Group
DATE: March 30, 2017
RE: Recent National Tracking Survey on the Trump Presidency

The new Priorities USA national tracking survey on the Trump presidency shows that there has been
significant erosion in Donald Trumps standing with the electorate, led by a weakening of confidence in
him among voters who supported him last November. While Trumps failed effort to repeal and replace
the Affordable Care Act is at this heart of this decline, the survey results indicate that the events of the
past few weeks have added to voters doubts about Trumps temperament and truthfulness.

The poll was conducted by telephone March 23-27, 2017, with a representative national cross section
of 1,001 voters. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points.

1. There has been a drop in approval of the job that Donald Trump is doing as president,
resulting from a decline in the willingness of Trump voters to endorse his performance.

Currently, just 39% of voters approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as president, while 47%
disapprove and the remainder are uncertain. There is significant intensity to the disapproval of
Trump: 42% strongly disapprove of his performance, while just 26% strongly approve of it.

Trumps approval has dropped by 6 points since the previous Priorities USA national tracking
survey, conducted March 3-7largely as a result of declining approval among Trumps own
supporters.

All voters Trump voters Clinton voters


March March March March March March
23-27 3-7 23-27 3-7 23-27 3-7
Approve 39 45 82 92 4 5
Disapprove 47 46 5 2 89 90
Not sure 14 9 13 6 7 5

Trumps approval rating with independent voters stands at just 32%, down from 41% three
weeks ago. While disapproval for his performance has risen among Democrats (from 79% to
85%), his approval among Republicans has dropped over the same period (from 86% to 76%).
2. Recent events have reinforced the feelings of voters who oppose Donald Trump, but there has
been a big drop since our last survey in the share of Trump voters who say that recent events
have affirmed their support of him.

Three weeks ago, 39% of voters said that the things they had heard lately about Donald Trump
made them feel more favorably toward him, while 45% said they were less favorable toward
him based on what they had been hearing about him at that time. Today, just 23% say they are
more favorable toward Trump as a result of what they have heard about him recently, while
50% say that recent events have made them less favorable.

Again, the large drop in the proportion saying they have become more favorable has occurred
among those who voted for Trump last November.

All voters Trump voters Clinton voters


March March March March March March
23-27 3-7 23-27 3-7 23-27 3-7
More favorable 23 39 49 80 2 5
Less favorable 50 45 11 5 86 86
Both 2 5 4 4 2 3
Neither 20 11 30 10 8 6

The results among non-college educate white voters, Trumps base, are of special note. In the
prior poll, they said recent events had made them more favorable rather than less favorable to
Trump by 53% to 31%. Now, only 30% say they are more favorable to Trump as result of what
they have heard lately, while 37% say recent events have made them less favorable.

3. Multiple measures indicate that the healthcare debacle clearly has hurt Trump.

When respondents are asked to volunteer any unfavorable things they recall seeing or hearing
about Donald Trump, healthcare emerges as the leading top-of-mind response (25%), followed
by immigration and the travel ban (12%) and his use of Twitter (9%).

When asked more specifically their reaction to what they have heard recently about Donald
Trumps healthcare policies, 51% report an unfavorable reaction, compared to just 24% who
report a favorable reaction. This is significantly more negative than the result from three weeks
ago, when reactions to Trumps health care policies were 32% favorable and 36% unfavorable.
Independent voters are unfavorable to his healthcare policies by 50% to 13%. Eighty-six
percent of Clinton voters are unfavorable to Trump on this score, while just 49% of Trump
voters express a positive reaction to his healthcare policies.

Voters also select various aspects of Donald Trumps healthcare policies as the most concerning
examples of broken promises from his campaign:
WHICH ONE OR TWO OF THE FOLLOWING GIVE YOU THE BIGGEST CONCERNS ABOUT
DONALD TRUMP?
He promised not to cut Medicare, but his healthcare bill takes $117 billion out 27%
of Medicare to give a tax cut to the rich.
He promised not to cut Medicaid, but his healthcare bill would make large 25%
cuts in Medicaid, including for nursing home care and drug treatment.
He promised that his healthcare plan would cover everybody, but 24 million 23%
Americans would lose their coverage under his plan.
He promised to stand up to Wall Street, but all of his top economic advisors 13%
are Wall Street bankers and he is reducing regulations on Wall Street.
He promised to release his tax returns after they were audited, but now he 13%
says he wont release any of his returns.
He promised that the new oil pipelines would be built with American steel, 12%
but he is letting the Keystone and Dakota pipelines be built with foreign steel.
None of these 20%
Not sure 5%

4. Trumps character both his lack of temperament and his lack of truthfulness is a significant
liability for him, and recent events have cast both in a more negative light for voters.

The past few weeks have cast a negative light on Donald Trumps truthfulness for 51% of voters;
only 28% say they have a favorable reaction to what they have heard recently about his
truthfulness in the things he says. Voters without a college degree are more negative than
positive by 46% to 32%.

The situation is similar with regard to what voters have seen recently of Trumps temperament
and leadership style: 54% voice an unfavorable reaction (up from 50% three weeks ago), while
only 28% are favorable (down from 36% three weeks ago). Among Trump voters, 77% were
favorable in early March, while only 61% say the same today.