Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Cambodia: Hun Sen Downgrades
Military Relations with US
Carlyle A. Thayer
April 4, 2017

[client name deleted]

I would like to get your analysis of relations between Cambodia and the United States
The US Embassy said that that its Navy unit has been notified to leave Cambodia. This
follows the cancellation of exercises with the US and Australia as well. Is this the rise
of Chin aand decline of the US and others? What does this mean for the US?
Stories on the matter: https://www.cambodiadaily.com/news/us-naval-aid-unit-
pushed-out-embassy-says-127486/
ASSESSMENT: Hun Sen has repeatedly taken steps to downgrade military relations
with the United States during this past year. Hun Sen has also been vocal in sniping at
the United States, particularly over Lon Nol era debts that the U.S. hasnt written off.
Cambodia made the first moves to open defence relations with the US, by posting a
defence attache to Washington, sending the defence minister to visit as well, and then
hosting the largest Ankor Sentinel exercise at that time. Defence relations picked up
with US Navy port visits and the long attachment of the Seabees for construction work
in Cambodia, now ended.
Hun Sen may have been motivated to take such actions because of minor frictions in
bilateral relations, US criticism of human rights, and a desire to hold commune and
national elections without foreign interference.
Hun Sens actions represent a setback for the US Pacific Commands theater
engagement strategy but they may be ill-timed. President Trump has shown little
strategic interest in Southeast Asia. If Trump asks what is in it (relations with
Cambodia) for the United States? he is unlikely to come up with much. On the other
hand, Hun Sens actions could come back and bite him. Cambodia needs special access
to the US market for its garment industry. In the past American labour unions
supported this arrangement and these unions backed the Democratic Party. All this
has changed, Hun Sen may well have cut off his nose to spite his face as his anti-US
actions will only increase Cambodias dependency on China. Hun Sen will have little
room to maneuver if economic relations between China and the US sour. Telltale signs
of how Trump will handle China will emerge after this weeks informal summit at Mar-
a-Lago.
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