Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

North Korea: Forecasting U.S.
Military Actions
Carlyle A. Thayer
April 16, 2017

[client name deleted]

TIME CRITICAL: Currently we have grave concerns about likely U.S. military actions
against North Korea. Will the United States attack North Korea in coming days? We
request your urgent assessment.
ASSESSMENT: It is now Sunday (April 16) in Canberra and North Korea has held its
massive parade to celebrate the 105th anniversary of Kim Il-sung. The military parade
included several types of ballistic missiles transported on large trucks. One missile was
identified as the KN-08, the second was identified as the KN-14 and the third was
reportedly new, and given the size of its canister, was estimated to have a range of
6,000 km. The display of ballistic missiles demonstrates that North Korea continues to
make progress in developing longer-range solid fueled missiles. So far there has been
no sixth nuclear test that was widely expected. Reports have confirmed that a North
Korean ballistic missile launch today failed immediately as the missile self-destructed.
Despite President Trumps rhetoric it is highly unlikely that the United States will
launch a pre-emptive strike against a facility about to test a nuclear weapon. Even with
a strengthened carrier task group led by the USS Carl Vinson the U.S. would need some
massive provocation in order to strike North Korea. It is well known that North Koreas
forward deployed artillery and rocket forces could devastate Seoul in a matter of
hours before any effective retaliation could take place. North Korea has a small arsenal
of nuclear weapons and could attempt to strike U.S. forces in South Korea or Japan.
While the United States is sending signals through its force posture, it is China that
appears to be doing the hard work by pressuring Pyongyang not to conduct another
nuclear test. China has momentarily turned back ships carrying North Korean coal to
China. This is a major earner of foreign currency for Pyongyang The response by the
U.S. Secretary of Defense about the North Korean missile test was short and abrupt
and did not create new tensions. At the least, the United States will have to wait and
see what Chinese diplomacy achieves.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, North Korea: Forecasting U.S. Military Actions,
Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, April 16, 2017. All background briefs are posted
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.