Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Philippines: Defense Secretary
and Military Brass Visit Pag-asa
Carlyle A. Thayer
April 21, 2017

[client name deleted]

Q1. Philippine Defense Secretary Lorenzana, the military Chief of Staff and a large
group of local Filipino journalists are flying to Philippine-occupied Pag-asa island (Thitu
Island) in the Spratlys today. We request your assessment of the motivations of this
trip, which might upset China, at a time when President Duterte is continuing an often-
confusing shift in his countrys alliances by pivoting toward China while pushing back
on close relations with the U.S. Duterte will also go on board a Russian ship visiting
Manila today.
ANSWER: It seems clear that further Chinese consolidation and militarization of its
artificial islands after the Arbitral Tribunal ruling in July last year has raised concerns
in the Department of Defense about Philippines sovereignty in the West Philippine
Sea (WPS). The Aquino Administration refrained from construction on Pag-asa viewing
it as a possible violation of the self-restraint clause in the Declaration on Conduct of
Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) or an action that would invite a hostile Chinese
propaganda barrage. Given nationalist sentiments in the Philippines the visit by the
Defense Secretary, Chief of Staff and journalists is an opportunity to give public
support to the military and others living and working on Pag-asa. When President
Duterte rescinded his promise to go there this June and plant a flag, he quipped that
he might send his son. The current delegation can show the flag and demonstrate
that the Philippines has not completely rolled over on its maritime dispute with China.
Q2. Whats the impact of Dutertes pro-China maneuvers on the U.S., and the South
China Sea disputes overall? How will the Trump administration react to Dutertes
gambit toward China?
ANSWER: Both the Obama Administration and the current Trump Administration have
been remarkable in their restraint. The Trump Administration can overlook Duterte
crude comments about Obama because that is in the past. At the moment, given the
understaffing of senior posts in the State and Defense Departments, it is unlikely that
relations with the Philippines are on the radar screen. Not so in Pacific Command
where Dutertes erratic behavior must be a cause for concern, especially with the
second port visit by Russian warships this year.
Both Trump and Duterte share the view that it is necessary to work with China rather
than contain it or provoke it. Their motivations differ, Trump wants Chinese
 2

cooperation on North Korea and greater market access. Duterte wants Chinese
investment in infrastructure.
Where they differ is on the efficacy of the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty. For the U.S.
to counter China in the South China Sea a rotational presence in the Philippines is an
prized asset. For Duterte, the U.S. alliance doesnt bring an ironclad U.S. commitment
to defend features in the WPS acquired after 1951. The writing is on the wall for
President Duterte; if he wants a workable alliance with the United States he will have
to bring more resources to the table and continue modernizing the Armed Forces of
the Philippines. Duterte must demonstrate that the Philippines is prepared to work
with the United States in a substantial way as an ally. In other words, Trump is not
going to fight to the last American to defend the Philippines unless Duterte steps up
to the plate. Since Duterte shows no inclination to do so, the alliance is likely to
atrophy over time.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Philippines: Defense Secretary and Military

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