Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Philippines: Interpreting Duterte
on West Philippine Sea
Carlyle A. Thayer
April 21, 2017

[client name deleted]

Regarding tensions in the South China Sea, President Rodrigo Duterte on April 15
vowed to assert ownership of the Philippines territories. This was the second time in
recent weeks that he expressed this intentios.
We are not sure what Mr. Duterte really meant by such statements. Qe request your
assessment of the following issues and questions:
Q1: What is the Philippines legal basis to claim and assert ownership over the Spratly
Islands?
ANSWER: The Philippines claim to islands in the Spratlys arose after independence in
1946 when the then president declared that they formed part of the Philippines. In
the 1950s, a Filipino private citizen took possession of islands and called them
collectively Kalayaan or Freedomland. In 1974, these islands were ceded to the
Republic of the Philippines for a nominal sum of money.
The Philippines currently occupies nine features in what it calls the West Philippine
Sea. The Philippines claim is based on several factors, such as the features are part of
its continental shelf or fall within its Exclusive Economic Zone. Under the Aquino
Administration the Philippines dropped the lines on the map forming the Kalayaan
Island Group and redrew its baselines to conform to UNCLOS.
Q2 What are potential challenges for President Duterte in this case?
ANSWER: The main challenge for President Duterte is how to square the legal victory
won by the Philippines in the Award issued by the Arbitral Tribunal with Chinese claims
to indisputable sovereignty over the entire Spratly Islands. Duterte has deliberately
not sought to force China to accept the Award. This Award declared that Scarborough
Shoal is a traditional fishing ground for the Philippines, China and other nations. The
Award also states that two of Chinas artificial islands, Subi and Johnson South reefs,
are low tide elevations and not subject to appropriation. China has built three-
kilometer long airfields on each of these features. Under international law these
features belong to the Philippines.
A second challenge for Duterte is how to respond to Chinas continual militarization
of its artificial islands, how to prevent China from occupying more features, and how
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to prevent China from interfering with Philippines fishing and military ships in the
West Philippines Sea.
Q3: About timing: what do you think is the reason that motivated President Duterte
to act at this time? Did the forthcoming ASEAN Summit, which the Philippines will
chair, have any impact?
ANSWER: President Duterte made his comments about occupying nine islands in the
West Philippines Sea when he was travelling in the Middle East. He made his remarks
to overseas Filipino workers in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. His remarks appeared to be off
the cuff and so too much weight should not be put on the timing. Duterte seemed to
be posturing before a Filipino audience to showcase his nationalism. Because Duterte
retracted his remarks quickly after China expressed its disapproval it is unlikely that
his remarks formed part of a larger strategic intent related to the ASEAN Summit.
Q4: How will other ASEAN countries react at the next ASEAN summit?
ANSWER: ASEAN leaders will sing like a chorus and repeat past formulations. They will
note the concern expressed by some leaders about recent developments in the South
China Sea. They will then sing in praise of the non-use of force and the peaceful
settlement of disputes in accord with international law, including UNCLOS (United
Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea). They will then call for the full
implementation of the Declaration on Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC)
and the expeditious conclusion of the Code of Conduct in the South China Seea. ASEAN
leaders will refer to legal and diplomatic processes but make no direct mention of
the Award by the Arbitral Tribunal in the case brought by the Philippines against China.
More likely the ASEAN leaders will focus on non-proliferation and peace on the Korean
peninsula.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Philippines: Interpreting Duterte on West

Philippine Sea, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, April 21, 2017. All background
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.