Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Cambodia: Impact of Trumps
Proposed Budget Cuts
Carlyle A. Thayer
April 27, 2017

[client name de3elted]

We refer you to this Foreign Policy article about Trump's proposed budget for 2018
for assistance to developing countries:
http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/04/24/u-s-agency-for-international-development-
foreign-aid-state-department-trump-slash-foreign-
funding/?utm_content=buffer4ec6b&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com
&utm_campaign=buffer
If adopted, Cambodia would get hit hard. Obviously, there's no way to know what
form the budget will take as it is considered by the US Congress or even if the cuts will
be enacted. We request your assessment of the following:
Q1. If the Cambodian cuts go through, how do you think that will affect US-
Cambodian relations?
ANSWER: US aid cut could provide an opportunity for other donors, including China,
to step in to pick up the shortfall. But US cuts would be devastating to the Cambodian
NGO community and to Cambodians in general who benefitted from USAID assistance.
US aid cuts will likely reinforce Hun Sens inclinations to pursue his anti-America and
pro-China agenda. Cuts in US aid will also remove another conduit for US influence on
the Cambodian government and lead to a lowering of US prestige in Cambodia and
mainland Southeast Asia, assuming the Mekong Initiative is also impacted. US aid cuts
will exacerbate ill feelings by those Cambodians who have spoken out critically about
US bombing during the Lon Non era and demanded compensation, and those
advocating relief from Lon Nol era debts.
Q2. Do you think this proposal may be a reaction at all to the increasingly chilly
relations between the US and Cambodia, or strictly a consequence of Trump's
priorities with essentially no thought to Cambodia specifically?
ANSWER: Trumps proposed budget cuts are unrelated to the current state of chilly
relations between Phnom Penh and Washington. Trump does not understand the
relationship between health/human security and domestic/regional security. He also
does not appreciate the goodwill generated by US AID programs abroad. Trump thinks
in broad terms and only when he becomes aware of the drawbacks of his initial idea
 2

does he change his mind. Cambodia is not on the Trump Administrations radar screen
let alone the presidents personal radar screen.
Q3. If US funding globally is increasingly rechanneled from development assistance to
national security objectives, is Cambodia likely to lose out?
ANSWER: Cambodia will lose out doubly because it has already shot itself in the foot
by cutting military ties with the United States and also because development
assistance will dry up if Trumps budget proposals are approved by Congress.
Cambodia will become even more China dependent, a situation the Hun Sen regime
might benefit from but not the Cambodian people. Chinas no strings attached aid
means that good governance, anti-corruption, and human rights will be neglected.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Cambodia: Impact of Trumps Proposed Budget

Cuts , Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, April 27, 2017. All background briefs are
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.