Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

President Dutertes Draft
ASEAN Chairs Statement
Carlyle A. Thayer
April 27, 2017

[client name deleted]

The forthcoming ASEAN Summit on April 28 is the chance for the public to learn more
about the policy stance of President of Philippines Duterte who is also ASEAN Chair.
We request your assessment of the following: How do you think President Duterte will
raise the South China Sea disputes at the ASEAN Summit? How will other ASEAN
members and China react?
ASSESSMENT: A draft copy of Rodrigo Dutertes statement as ASEAN Chair is now
being quoted by the news media. It is due to be issued on Saturday, April 29th and
the wording could be changed. It is clear that President Duterte is attempting to
accommodate China by watering down any references that Beijing might object to.
The draft statement closely follows last years statement in noting serious concerns
expressed by some leaders over recent developments, but drops any mention of
non- militarization and self-restraint in the conduct of all activities including land
reclamation [artificial islands]. These words in last years chairmans statement are
replaced by and escalation of activities in the area. The statement then continues
with the wording used last year, which may further raise tensions and erode trust
and confidence in the region.
The draft currently reads: We shared the serious concerns expressed by some leaders
over recent developments and escalation of activities in the area which may further
raise tensions and erode trust and confidence in the region.
The draft also repeats, We reaffirmed the importance of enhancing mutual trust and
confidence; exercising self-restraint in the conduct of activities; avoiding actions that
may further complicate the situation; and pursuing peaceful resolution of disputes,
including through full respect for legal and diplomatic processes, without resorting to
the threat or use of force, in accordance with the universally recognized principles of
international law, including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
The draft statement also reaffirmed the importance of maintaining peace, stability,
security and freedom of navigation in and overflight over the South China Sea.
Duterte let pass an opportunity to insert a reference to the Award by the Arbitral
Tribunal that heard the case of The Philippines v China on maritime disputes in the
 2

South China Sea. Duterte used ASEANs standard circumlocution of respecting legal
and diplomatic processes as diplomatic-speak for the Arbitral Tribunal Award.
Dutertes draft notes the importance of the full and effective implementation of the
Declaration on Conduct of Parties (DOC) in the South China Sea in its entirety. This has
been said before. Dutertes draft also flags significant progress on a framework for
the code of conduct in the South China Sea, which is a new development this year.
Two final points. First, the draft states that ASEAN welcomed the cooperation and
constructive dialogue on maritime issues of common interest and concern, including
search and rescue, maritime capacity building, crimes at sea, maritime scientific
research, maritime security and piracy. But the draft does not mention safety of
navigation and communication at sea one of the five areas of cooperation outlined in
the 2002 DOC. China has continually objected to raising this issue.
Finally, Dutertes draft notes the urgency to continue the development of linkages in
maritime security and cooperation under the domain of the ASEAN Maritime Forum,
Expanded ASEAN Maritime Forum, ASEAN Regional Forum and the ASEAN Defense
Ministers Meeting. None of these ASEAN-related bodies has effectively addressed
Chinese construction of and militarization of artificial islands in the South China Sea.
In sum, although some ASEAN ministers feel progress is being made on managing
maritime disputes in the South China Sea, the reality is that ASEAN is gradually
accepting that the South China Sea has become Chinas lake.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, President Dutertes Draft ASEAN Chairs

Statement, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, April 27, 2017. All background
briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the
mailing list type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.