Issue 309

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 CONTENTS FROM THE

p2 Is Property a Good Investment in

EDITOR
Welcome to the 309th edition of the
Singapore Property Weekly.
Times of War?
Hope you like it!
p9 Resale Property Transactions
Mr. Propwise
(April 17 April 24)

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 SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 308

Is Property a Good Investment in Times of War?

By Property Soul (guest contributor)

The recent Easter weekend was filled with

tension. It started with Donald Trump using
Afghanistan as a testing ground for the
Mother of All Bombs and killing 96 Islamic
State militants. This was followed by a failed
missile launch by North Korea on Sunday. US
Vice-President Mike Pence warned that the
era of strategic patience is over.

Suddenly, everyone is on their toes. A war

sounds imminent. What will happen if there is
a war? Are we safe? Will the Singapore
economy be intact? How are we affected
financially? What will happen to the property
market?

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 SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 308
Wars wont stop mortgage payments
First of all, there is a big difference between
living inside or outside of a warzone. If the
war happens in our country, all male citizens
and PRs between the ages of 18 and 40 will
be compulsorily enlisted in national service.
When the homeowners leave their jobs to
serve their country, they are still required by
the banks to repay their housing loans every
month. Mostly likely, the government will step
in, increase taxes or issue war bonds to help
the servicemen to temporarily pay their
mortgages while they are away. When they
come back, they have to continue paying their
loans.
Since no home protection or mortgage
insurance policies cover acts of war, even if a
house becomes uninhabitable after a
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bombing raid, the owner is still liable to pay
the outstanding housing loan. Thats why it is
wiser to rent than to own properties in
wartime.
People will sell their home at whatever price
they can fetch if they anticipate that a war is
coming. For the rich, they will either leave
their country or sell their properties to stay in
a hotel.
Land is a far better investment than
properties
I just read Barton Biggs book Wealth, War
and Wisdom. Biggs is a hedge fund manager
famous for correctly predicting the dot.com
bust. His book examines how different asset
classes performed during World War II and
which ones proved to be the winners after the
war.
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 SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 308
The conventional wisdom told us that
properties are safe havens. But it is a
different story when countries are at war.
Property prices are largely influenced by the
performance of the stock market. During
World War II, the stock exchange dropped to
the lowest point in February 1942.
The listlessness affected real estate. A New
York hotel could not be sold at one times its
annual earnings, and rents in Wall Street
office buildings were as low as a dollar a
square foot.
Compared with real estate, land proved to be
a much better investment. Estates and
buildings were expropriated, converted,
depreciated, or destroyed, and getting them
back or obtaining compensation after the
hostilities were over was problematical at
best. On the other hand, the underlying land
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was always there, and even if the local
property records had been destroyed, the
locals knew who the owners were. In cities
that were bombed, no compensation was
ever received for destroyed homes or
property, but title to the underlying land was
retained.
From 1950 to 1990, while nominal income
rose 50 times, land prices climbed 330 times
if you owned agricultural land, you were
forced by the MacArthur administration to sell
your acreage to the government at a deeply
distressed pries so farm land didnt work as a
wealth preserver. However commercial,
industrial, and residential land especially in
Tokyo and Osaka was a different story and
when the post-war boom came you became
incredibly rich as property values soared to
unimaginable heights.
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 SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 308
There is one exception: If the country falls to
communism, all land and property will be
confiscated and distributed to the commissars
and the people, similar to the situation when
the Soviet Army occupied Hungary in 1944.
Good and bad assets to own in wartime
To protect your wealth in times of war, the
strategy is to diversify your fortune both in
asset classes and locations. Biggs book also
evaluates the value of other asset classes
during World War II.
1. Cash
Paper money is easily eroded by inflation in
wartime. And holding piles of cash in a time
when people are less law-abiding is likely to
attract thieves and robbers.
Say you have bought a property in a country
that is in war and you manage to cash out in
time. However, transferring large amount of
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money out of the country is a bad idea. There
might be exchange controls and taxes. Above
all, you will be accused of being unpatriotic or
treasonous.
Countries that have surrendered are forced to
switch to a new currency. But that may
become completely useless after the war. The
banana currency circulated in Singapore and
Malaysia during World War II is a good
example.
2. Gold
According to Biggs, you can only hide it in
your backyard if you own gold because there
were three problems of selling gold during the
war:
1) The seller had to find a real buyer or a
black market dealer to sell the gold. It was
extremely dangerous to leak the news when
informers and treachery were everywhere.
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 SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 308
2) The seller had to accept a significant
discount from the true value of the gold
because there was no open market.
3) The seller had to hide the gold. For
instance, the Germans would borrow the
gold by issuing a promissory note and ship it
back to Germany. The promissory notes were
not honoured after the war.
However, when inflation soared in the post-
war years from 1945 to 1950, gold was a
good asset to own. In occupied Europe
during World War II, all things considered,
gold was the best asset to hide in, preserve
wealth, and maintain some liquidity. Stocks,
land, real estate, and businesses worked only
if you had a very long-term horizon.
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3. Stocks and Bonds
Biggs research tries to find out whether stock
prices are random, irrational and
undecipherable that just reflect the foolish
consensus of crowds on a short-term basis,
or they are intuitive and wise in their
judgments in the long-term.
His conclusion is that equities had actually
outperformed during the years of war. He
recommends families and individuals to have
75 percent of their wealth in stocks. It is also
critical to own a diversified portfolio and
beware of companies that are no longer
relevant.
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 SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 308

Equities are the place to be in the long run

because of their proven and virtually unique
ability to increase the purchasing power of
capital.

Below is a table from Enterprising Investors

article What Happens to the Market if
America Goes to War? that shows stocks
have outperformed their long-term averages
during wars. On the other hand, bonds have
disappointed during the same periods of time.
Other practical things to own during wars
This is echoed by Biggs that the returns for
government bonds in France, Germany, Italy No matter what investment you choose, you
and Japan are a calamity between 1940 and cant ignore the basic needs of food and
1949. clothing when there is a war. After all, no one
can survive being land-rich or property rich
but food-poor.

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 SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 308
However, you couldnt eat stock certificates,
and food was what people had to have to
survive. To that extent, stocks didnt work.
Food was the best currency in the latter year
of the war. Warm clothes and food were the
most desirable barter items. People wanted to
first cure being cold and hungry before they
became greedy for possessions. One
European family that lived through the war in
Japan found that the exchange rate for
clothes was much higher than that for jewelry,
and they survived the hungry years by
bartering their large inventory of sweaters and
overcoats for food.
Biggs thinks the rich are too complacent
because they believe that they will have time
to extricate their wealth when the unexpected
happens. But in reality, it can happen much
faster than anyone expect.
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Wars are caused by humans and history
often repeats itself. Briggs mentions that at
least once in every century there has been an
episode of great wealth destruction. The
trigger event can be a massive terrorist
attack, a nuclear attack, a plague, a massive
SARS epidemic, or an electronic explosion
that disrupts the economy for months or
years.
Biggs didnt live long enough to see that
happen. We pray that day will never come.
By guest contributor Property Soul, a
successful property investor, blogger, and
author of the No B.S. Guide to Property
Investment.
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 SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 309
Non-Landed Residential Resale Property Transactions for the Week of Apr 17 Apr 24

Postal Area Transacted Price Postal Area Transacted Price

Project Name Tenure Project Name Tenure
District (sqft) Price ($) ($ psf) District (sqft) Price ($) ($ psf)
1 THE SAIL @ MARINA BAY 689 1,580,000 2,294 99 8 KENTISH COURT 1,055 1,045,000 991 99
1 THE CLIFT 506 1,080,000 2,135 99 9 SCOTTS SQUARE 1,249 3,800,000 3,043 FH
1 ONE SHENTON 1,206 1,900,000 1,576 99 9 OUE TWIN PEAKS 549 1,649,400 3,005 99
2 THE ARRIS 980 1,820,000 1,858 FH 9 THE LAURELS 1,001 2,580,000 2,577 FH
3 THE REGENCY AT TIONG BAHRU 1,270 2,060,000 1,622 FH 9 PATERSON SUITES 1,679 3,750,000 2,233 FH
4 REFLECTIONS AT KEPPEL BAY 3,724 7,000,000 1,880 99 9 THE METZ 1,066 2,350,000 2,205 FH
4 MARINA COLLECTION 3,789 6,385,000 1,685 99 9 ESPADA 646 1,400,000 2,168 FH
4 THE OCEANFRONT @ SENTOSA COVE 1,711 2,600,000 1,519 99 9 ILLUMINAIRE ON DEVONSHIRE 721 1,550,000 2,149 FH
4 HARBOURLIGHTS 818 1,198,000 1,464 FH 9 PATERSON LINC 850 1,780,000 2,093 FH
4 REFLECTIONS AT KEPPEL BAY 1,292 1,820,000 1,409 99 9 RIVERGATE 1,938 4,030,000 2,080 FH
5 HORIZON RESIDENCES 1,356 1,850,000 1,364 FH 9 THE BOUTIQ 506 1,050,000 2,075 FH
5 THE PARC CONDOMINIUM 980 1,220,000 1,246 FH 9 THE PATERSON 1,206 2,300,000 1,908 FH
5 THE VISION 1,313 1,580,000 1,203 99 9 BELLE VUE RESIDENCES 2,002 3,460,000 1,728 FH
5 HERITAGE VIEW 969 1,160,000 1,197 99 9 WATERMARK ROBERTSON QUAY 1,636 2,800,000 1,711 FH
5 CRYSTAL HEIGHTS 1,109 1,280,000 1,155 FH 9 LUCKY PLAZA 829 1,300,000 1,568 FH
5 BOTANNIA 1,270 1,450,000 1,142 956 9 THE REGALIA 1,216 1,750,000 1,439 FH
5 VARSITY PARK CONDOMINIUM 1,453 1,620,000 1,115 99 9 ELIZABETH TOWER 3,068 4,350,000 1,418 FH
5 BOTANNIA 2,637 2,480,000 940 956 9 ASPEN HEIGHTS 1,604 2,100,000 1,309 999
5 NORMANTON PARK 1,270 1,040,000 819 102 9 PACIFIC MANSION 1,528 1,860,000 1,217 FH
7 SOUTHBANK 958 1,450,000 1,514 99 10 ARDMORE PARK 2,885 9,700,000 3,363 FH
8 CITY SQUARE RESIDENCES 861 1,360,000 1,579 FH 10 GRAMERCY PARK 1,270 3,926,730 3,092 FH
8 CITY SQUARE RESIDENCES 861 1,330,000 1,545 FH 10 GRAMERCY PARK 1,184 3,554,880 3,002 FH
8 TYRWHITT 139 463 660,000 1,426 FH 10 GRAMERCY PARK 1,959 5,838,650 2,980 FH
8 OXFORD SUITES 893 1,170,000 1,310 FH 10 GRAMERCY PARK 1,184 3,400,000 2,872 FH

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 SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 309

Postal Area Transacted Price Postal Area Transacted Price

Project Name Tenure Project Name Tenure
District (sqft) Price ($) ($ psf) District (sqft) Price ($) ($ psf)
10 TOMLINSON HEIGHTS 4,047 11,150,000 2,755 FH 10 THE BALMORAL 7,653 10,600,000 1,385 FH
10 TOMLINSON HEIGHTS 4,047 10,750,000 2,656 FH 10 CHARMING GARDEN 1,819 2,450,000 1,347 999
10 GRAMERCY PARK 3,132 7,830,400 2,500 FH 10 THE SIXTH AVENUE RESIDENCES 1,582 2,120,000 1,340 FH
10 ONE BALMORAL 592 1,397,000 2,360 FH 10 SPRING GROVE 1,389 1,850,000 1,332 99
10 ONE BALMORAL 592 1,366,000 2,307 FH 10 DUCHESS RESIDENCES 2,756 3,600,000 1,306 999
10 ONE BALMORAL 969 2,206,000 2,277 FH 10 DUET 1,744 2,250,000 1,290 FH
10 POLLEN & BLEU 603 1,257,100 2,085 99 10 THE TESSARINA 1,862 1,960,000 1,053 FH
10 POLLEN & BLEU 1,841 3,808,850 2,069 99 10 D'LEEDON 3,789 3,076,600 812 99
10 POLLEN & BLEU 1,184 2,410,600 2,036 99 10 D'LEEDON 4,898 3,835,600 783 99
10 POLLEN & BLEU 1,841 3,740,000 2,032 99 10 LUTHERAN TOWERS 1,916 1,430,000 746 103
10 ONE BALMORAL 969 1,963,000 2,026 FH 11 GILSTEAD TWO 775 1,500,000 1,935 FH
10 POLLEN & BLEU 2,153 4,316,300 2,005 99 11 NEWTON ONE 1,216 2,200,000 1,809 FH
10 POLLEN & BLEU 700 1,386,350 1,981 99 11 BUCKLEY CLASSIQUE 1,475 2,540,000 1,722 FH
10 POLLEN & BLEU 2,045 3,995,000 1,953 99 11 ADRIA 1,281 2,180,000 1,702 FH
10 POLLEN & BLEU 2,045 3,995,000 1,953 99 11 SKY@ELEVEN 2,713 4,000,000 1,475 FH
10 POLLEN & BLEU 700 1,361,700 1,946 99 11 SHELFORD SUITES 1,227 1,770,000 1,442 FH
10 PARVIS 990 1,918,620 1,937 FH 11 THOMSON 800 1,625 1,960,000 1,206 FH
10 POLLEN & BLEU 700 1,337,050 1,911 99 11 THOMSON 800 1,625 1,800,000 1,107 FH
10 POLLEN & BLEU 549 1,046,350 1,906 99 12 THE RIVERINE BY THE PARK 980 1,490,000 1,521 FH
10 VOLARI 2,282 4,250,000 1,862 FH 12 PARC HAVEN 1,012 1,060,000 1,048 FH
10 TANGLIN PARK 1,335 2,480,000 1,858 FH 12 EURO-ASIA APARTMENTS 2,443 1,750,000 716 FH
10 MILL POINT 915 1,510,000 1,650 999 13 PARC MONDRIAN 904 1,200,000 1,327 FH
10 DUKES RESIDENCE 990 1,600,000 1,616 FH 13 ONE LEICESTER 1,292 1,580,000 1,223 FH
10 THE LEVELZ 990 1,600,000 1,616 FH 13 THE ACACIAS 1,216 1,280,000 1,052 FH
10 THE LEVELZ 1,001 1,580,000 1,578 FH 14 CENTRA SUITES 452 600,000 1,327 FH
10 PARC STEVENS 2,949 4,500,000 1,526 FH 14 THE CENTREN 980 1,117,200 1,141 FH
10 D'LEEDON 2,250 3,150,000 1,400 99 14 NICOLE GREEN 926 1,020,000 1,102 FH

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 SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 309

Postal Area Transacted Price Postal Area Transacted Price

Project Name Tenure Project Name Tenure
District (sqft) Price ($) ($ psf) District (sqft) Price ($) ($ psf)
14 CITY PLAZA 915 938,000 1,025 FH 16 COSTA DEL SOL 1,227 1,380,000 1,125 99
14 CASA SARINA 1,324 1,200,000 906 FH 16 COSTA DEL SOL 1,561 1,650,000 1,057 99
14 EUNOS PARK 1,981 1,500,000 757 FH 16 CASA MERAH 1,259 1,300,000 1,032 99
14 SIMS RESIDENCES 1,410 1,066,600 756 99 16 CASA MERAH 1,249 1,250,000 1,001 99
15 THE MEYERISE 1,302 2,828,000 2,171 FH 16 BAYSHORE PARK 1,173 1,050,000 895 99
15 THE MEYERISE 883 1,779,000 2,016 FH 16 BAYSHORE PARK 1,173 1,000,000 852 99
15 THE MEYERISE 872 1,620,000 1,858 FH 16 EASTWOOD GREEN 1,141 930,000 815 99
15 FULCRUM 829 1,478,070 1,783 FH 16 CASAFINA 2,120 1,640,000 773 99
15 FULCRUM 829 1,439,000 1,736 FH 16 CASCADALE 1,722 1,200,000 697 FH
15 THE WATERSIDE 2,411 3,600,000 1,493 FH 17 COASTAL VIEW RESIDENCES 1,141 942,000 826 999
15 HAIG 162 355 530,000 1,492 FH 17 CARISSA PARK CONDOMINIUM 926 760,000 821 FH
15 QUESTA @ DUNMAN 786 1,150,000 1,464 FH 18 SEASTRAND 592 638,000 1,078 99
15 THE SEAWIND 980 1,380,000 1,409 FH 18 MELVILLE PARK 1,345 825,000 613 99
15 VERTIS 667 900,000 1,349 FH 18 TAMPINES COURT 1,679 915,000 545 101
15 THE MAKENA 1,152 1,430,000 1,242 FH 18 ELIAS GREEN 1,550 828,000 534 99
15 HAIG COURT 1,442 1,775,000 1,231 FH 19 PARK RESIDENCES KOVAN 355 548,000 1,543 FH
15 THE CARPMAELINA 904 1,080,000 1,194 FH 19 THE SCALA 850 1,108,000 1,303 99
15 AQUENE 753 845,000 1,121 FH 19 KOVAN RESIDENCES 1,270 1,430,000 1,126 99
15 FORTUNE JADE 1,098 1,218,555 1,110 FH 19 A TREASURE TROVE 915 965,000 1,055 99
15 FORTUNE SPRING 1,076 1,193,000 1,108 FH 19 THE MINTON 1,755 1,800,000 1,026 99
15 WATER PLACE 1,453 1,610,000 1,108 99 19 CHUAN PARK 710 715,000 1,006 99
15 HAWAII TOWER 2,239 2,475,000 1,105 FH 19 RIVERSAILS 883 870,000 986 99
15 COSTA ESTE 818 900,000 1,100 FH 19 RIVER ISLES 947 920,000 971 99
15 MERIDIAN 38 2,099 2,020,000 962 FH 19 RIVERSAILS 850 825,000 970 99
15 MANDARIN GARDENS 732 688,000 940 99 19 RIVERSAILS 1,066 1,020,000 957 99
15 GEMINI APARTMENTS 1,270 1,100,000 866 FH 19 RIVER ISLES 1,141 1,020,000 894 99
16 CASA MERAH 990 1,120,000 1,131 99 19 KOVAN PRIMERA 1,690 1,450,000 858 FH

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 SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 309

Postal Area Transacted Price Postal Area Transacted Price

Project Name Tenure Project Name Tenure
District (sqft) Price ($) ($ psf) District (sqft) Price ($) ($ psf)
19 RIO VISTA 1,378 1,080,000 784 99 23 PARK NATURA 2,928 2,575,000 879 FH
19 CHUAN PARK 1,528 1,100,000 720 99 23 HAZEL PARK CONDOMINIUM 1,335 1,070,000 802 999
20 SKY HABITAT 1,711 2,524,700 1,475 99 23 MAYSPRINGS 1,292 958,000 742 99
20 SKY HABITAT 1,798 2,487,400 1,384 99 23 REGENT GROVE 1,550 870,000 561 99
21 FLORIDIAN 936 1,558,000 1,664 FH 26 SEASONS PARK 1,249 1,020,000 817 99
21 THE CASCADIA 1,184 1,780,000 1,503 FH 27 YISHUN SAPPHIRE 1,195 848,000 710 99
21 MAPLE WOODS 1,335 1,900,000 1,424 FH 28 H2O RESIDENCES 883 815,000 923 99
21 MAPLE WOODS 1,378 1,780,000 1,292 FH 28 SUNRISE GARDENS 1,442 1,046,000 725 99
21 TERRENE AT BUKIT TIMAH 1,572 2,000,000 1,273 999
21 SUMMERHILL 1,604 1,750,000 1,091 FH
21 SIGNATURE PARK 1,033 1,108,000 1,072 FH NOTE: This data only covers non-landed residential resale property
21 SIGNATURE PARK 1,421 1,500,000 1,056 FH transactions with caveats lodged with the Singapore Land Authority.
21 SIGNATURE PARK 1,055 1,050,000 995 FH Typically, caveats are lodged at least 2-3 weeks after a purchaser
signs an OTP, hence the lagged nature of the data.
21 PANDAN VALLEY 2,088 1,950,000 934 FH
21 PANDAN VALLEY 2,142 1,900,000 887 FH
21 PINE GROVE 1,755 1,280,000 730 99
22 THE CENTRIS 1,238 1,410,000 1,139 99
22 CASPIAN 1,195 1,242,000 1,040 99
22 PARC OASIS 1,227 1,020,000 831 99
23 HILLSTA 570 607,050 1,064 99
23 HILLINGTON GREEN 1,528 1,608,000 1,052 999
23 HAZEL PARK CONDOMINIUM 1,518 1,520,000 1,001 999
23 HILLVIEW HEIGHTS 990 980,000 990 FH
23 THE MADEIRA 936 920,000 982 99
23 HAZEL PARK CONDOMINIUM 1,335 1,295,000 970 999
23 MERA WOODS 1,345 1,250,000 929 999
23 CHANTILLY RISE 1,206 1,110,000 921 FH

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