Global Resource Depletion - Threats and Opportunities - Oslo 4 April 2017

GLOBAL RESOURCE DEPLETION:
THREATS AND OPPORTUNITIES

Dr. Andr M. Diederen, FFI Kjeller & Oslo, Norway, 4.04.2017
slide 1
CONTENTS
Energy scarcity
General resource scarcity
Metals scarcity
The importance of metals in military hardware (examples)
Global threats
Global opportunities
Threats to Norway
Opportunities for Norway
Global Resource Depletion: Threats and Opportunities 4.04.2017

slide 2
ENERGY SCARCITY

slide 3
SCARCITY IS DICTATED BY PRODUCTION RATE

Typical simplified production curve:

slide 4
WORLD ENERGY
Source: ourfiniteworld.com, 30.01.2017 (based on BP 2016 Statistical Review of World Energy)

slide 5
GDP GROWTH IS LINKED TO OIL PRODUCTION

GROWTH
Source: Charles A.S. Hall, Energy Return on Investment A Unifying Principle for Biology, Economics, and Sustainability,
Springer, 2017, ISBN 978-3-319-47820-3

slide 6
NET ENERGY PER CAPITA: PLATEAU SINCE 1979

PLUS FORECAST
Source: Richard C. Duncan, The Olduvai Theory Energy, Population, and Industrial Civilization,
The Social Contract, Winter 2005-2006
slide 7
NET ENERGY CLIFF OR EXTENDED PLATEAU?
CSP: concentrated solar power

PV: photovoltaic
Source: Sgouridis, S., Csala, D., Bardi, U., The sowers way: quantifying the narrowing net-
energy pathways to a global energy transition, Environ. Res. Lett. 11 (2016) 094009, 7.09.2016
slide 8
ENERGY RETURN ON INVESTMENT: KEEPS

DROPPING
Source: Charles A.S. Hall, Energy

Return on Investment A Unifying
Principle for Biology, Economics,
and Sustainability, Springer, 2017,
ISBN 978-3-319-47820-3
10
slide 9
ENERGY IS THE PRIMARY RESOURCE

Money is useless without the energy to enable products and services

slide 10
GENERAL RESOURCE
SCARCITY

slide 11
ENERGY SCARCITY MEANS MATERIALS SCARCITY

VICE VERSA
Reinforcing feedback loop:
The energy sector as a whole is the largest metals consumer, so metals
scarcity aggravates energy scarcity whilst energy scarcity aggravates metals
scarcity
Energy harvesting from diluted forms of energy (like solar and wind) requires more
materials per unit of energy production than from fossil fuels
Energy scarcity also means food scarcity and scarcity of potable water

slide 12
GLOBAL RESOURCE DEPLETION:

NO PERPETUAL GROWTH ON A FINITE PLANET
Original source: Dennis L. Meadows, The Limits To Growth

A Report for the Club of Romes Project on The Predicament
of Mankind (1972), accessed through the Dutch translation
Rapport van de Club van Rome, ISBN 9027452466, 1972
2017
slide 13
METALS SCARCITY
Further reading: Ugo Bardi, Extracted: How the

Quest for Mineral Wealth Is Plundering the
Planet, ISBN 978-1603585415, 2014

slide 14
PHYSICAL RESOURCES ARE LIMITED

EXAMPLE: GOLD
all gold mined in human
history until now
Source: www.visualcapitalist.com, 28.02.2017

slide 15
DEPLETION: THE LOW HANGING FRUIT IS GONE

EXAMPLE: GOLD
Source: zerohedge.com, 10.08.2016

slide 16
DEPLETION: MORE AND MORE ENERGY NEEDED

PER UNIT OF PRIMARY PRODUCTION
EXAMPLE: GOLD
Source: srsroccoreport.com, 9.09.2013

slide 17
DEPLETION OF COPPER ORE: WORLD
Source: visualcapitalist.com, 23.06.2015

slide 18
DEPLETION OF IRON ORE: CHINA
Source: www.visualcapitalist.com, 25.09.2012

slide 19
DEPLETION OF IRON ORE: WORLD
Source: Debashish Bhattacharjee, Resource constraint from a steel perspective,

Conference: Materials in a resource-constrained world, Delft University of Technology, 18.11.2013

slide 20
RELATIVE SCARCITY OF ELEMENTS

Relative scarcity is determined according to a combination of the following criteria:
global primary production rates (absolute and relative)
worldwide reserves (absolute and relative)
material properties which are difficult or impossible to substitute
complexity of primary production and dependence on production of other elements
asymmetry of the geographical distribution (geological and geopolitical factors)

slide 21
RELATIVE SCARCITY OF ELEMENTS
Source: A.M. Diederen, Global Resource Depletion, Managed Austerity and the Elements of Hope, 2009 & 2010

slide 22
THE IMPORTANCE OF
METALS IN MILITARY
HARDWARE (EXAMPLES)

slide 23
MATERIALS IN A FIGHTER JET (E.G. RAFALE)
Source: Raw materials in the

European defence industry, JRC
science for policy report, EU, 2016

slide 24
MATERIALS IN A TYPICAL SUBMARINE


slide 25
MATERIALS IN A MAIN BATTLE TANK (E.G. LECLERC)


slide 26
MATERIALS IN A TYPICAL MISSILE


slide 27
GLOBAL THREATS

slide 28
GLOBAL THREATS
Now:
Economic stagnation and contraction (started in 2008)
Stagnant wages and declining discretionary spending power
Growing income inequality
Coming decades (in case of business as usual):

Substantial decrease in standard of living
More (and bigger) failed states and sharply increased mass migrations
Increasing part of the world reverts to the right of the strongest
Incremental systemic collapse, parts of the world might revert to totalitarianism
Timing and impact will depend on where you live

slide 29
GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES

slide 30
GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES
Use the leverage of complex adaptive systems to counter depletion and scarcity,
amongst others:
Buffers (build stockpiles)
there are no
Delays (use less, longer product lifetime)
solutions in
Reinforce balancing feedback loops (recycling, substitution)
isolation!
Neutralize reinforcing feedback loops (simplification)
Change the rules
(product and process (re)design, backsourcing of production)
Increase resilience:
vRobustness
Further reading: Donella Meadows, Leverage
vRedundancy Points Places to Intervene in a System (1999),
vResourcefulness accessed via thesolutionsjournal.com/node/419,
October 2009
vResponse
vRecovery
slide 31
THREATS TO NORWAY

slide 32
NORWAY: NO GROWTH IN FOSSIL FUELS ANYMORE
Source: The shelf in 2016, Norwegian Petroleum Directorate, 12.01.2017

slide 33
THREATS TO NORWAY
See global threats
In addition: in a worse than zero sum game world, the right of the strongest
becomes a dominant factor
v Be as autonomous as possible, strengthen credible military deterrence

v Do not rule out the scenario of economic exploitation or outright
plunder (e.g. denial of access to part of Norways continental shelf,
e.g. border corrections)
v Choose your alliances wisely and be adaptive (todays ally may be
tomorrows adversary, vice versa; co-operation is fine, assimilation is NOT)

slide 34
OPPORTUNITIES FOR NORWAY

slide 35
POTENTIAL RESOURCES BEYOND ARCTIC CIRCLE
and possibly 109 tons

of iron for Norway
Source: The Energy and Mineral

Riches of the Arctic,
www.visualcapitalist.com, 6.04.2016

slide 36
OPPORTUNITIES FOR NORWAY:

METALS PRODUCTION
Domestic metallic ores (partly in production):
4Be, 22Ti, 26Fe, 28Ni, 29Cu, 30Zn, 33As, 41Nb, 42Mo,
47Ag, 78Pt, 79Au, 82Pb, 21/39/57-71REE, 90Th
Imported ores (processed in Norway with affordable

energy): 13Al,14Si, 25Mn, 27Co
Less and less competition by cheap competitors due

to energy scarcity, metal ores depletion, resource
nationalism, corruption, conflicts & logistic bottlenecks
Source: Norwegian Ministry of Trade and Industry,
Strategy for the Mineral Industry, March 2013

slide 37
OPPORTUNITIES FOR NORWAY

Domestic metallic ores (partly in production):
4Be, 22Ti, 26Fe, 28Ni, 29Cu, 30Zn, 33As, 41Nb, 42Mo,
47Ag, 78Pt, 79Au, 82Pb, 21/39/57-71REE, 90Th
Imported ores (processed in Norway with affordable energy):

13Al,14Si, 25Mn, 27Co
Source: http://www.eurare.eu/countries/norway.html,
accessed 5.03.2017

slide 38
OPPORTUNITIES FOR NORWAY (CONTINUED)

See global opportunities (leverage of complex adaptive systems)
Become one of Europes champions in advanced recycling technologies
v Enables more efficient (co-)extraction and concentration of low grade materials in the
primary production chain
v Leverage domestic availability of energy (including hydroelectricity)
Lead the way on innovative substitution

v Exploit the intrinsic benefits of designing and producing products based on the
Elements of Hope, leverage domestic availability of raw materials
v Save (part of) the less abundant materials as well as part of the fossil fuels (which
also serve as feedstock for plastics etc.) for later (tangible Wealth Fund)

slide 39
OPPORTUNITIES FOR NORWAY (CONTINUED)

Apply Managed Austerity (a combination of slowing down and using less) to integrated
industrial development longer availability of domestic resources, better affordability for
domestic use and for export customers, for example:
o massively parallel heap leaching
o processes operating at lower temperatures
o the waste stream of one process becomes the feedstock of another one
Invest in productive assets instead of consumption, e.g.:

v homegrown engineering talent
v convert part of financial assets into tangibles like ownership

slide 40
OPPORTUNITIES FOR NORWAY (FINAL)

Peter Drucker: The best way to predict the future is to create it
Norway is one of the most advanced societies on the globe ideal circumstances to
promote more inventiveness and creativity
Organize a multidisciplinary National Policy Team (or think tank) to deal with global
resource depletion (both threats and opportunities)
No need for consensus (avoid polarization), keep an open mind for different points
of view
Precautionary principle / least regrets options
Charles Darwin: It is not the strongest species that survive, nor the most
intelligent, but the ones most responsive to change

slide 41
TECHNICALLY THE GLASS IS ALWAYS FULL

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
andre.diederen@tno.nl
The Netherlands Organization for Applied Scientific Research

Technical Sciences - Force Protection
Explosions, Ballistics & Protection
Rijswijk & Ypenburg (The Hague), The Netherlands

REFERENCES
Charles A.S. Hall, Energy Return on Investment A Unifying Principle for Biology, Economics, and Sustainability, Springer,
2017, ISBN 978-3-319-47820-3
Richard C. Duncan, The Olduvai Theory Energy, Population, and Industrial Civilization, The Social Contract, Winter 2005-2006
Sgouridis, S., Csala, D., Bardi, U., The sowers way: quantifying the narrowing net-energy pathways to a global energy transition,
Environ. Res. Lett. 11 (2016) 094009, 7.09.2016
Charles A.S. Hall, Energy Return on Investment A Unifying Principle for Biology, Economics, and Sustainability, Springer,
2017, ISBN 978-3-319-47820-3
Dennis L. Meadows, The Limits To Growth A Report for the Club of Romes Project on The Predicament of Mankind (1972),
accessed through the Dutch translation Rapport van de Club van Rome, ISBN 9027452466, 1972
Ugo Bardi, Extracted: How the Quest for Mineral Wealth Is Plundering the Planet, ISBN 978-1603585415, 2014
Debashish Bhattacharjee, Resource constraint from a steel perspective,
Conference: Materials in a resource-constrained world, Delft University of Technology, 18.11.2013
A.M. Diederen, Metal minerals scarcity: A call for managed austerity and the elements of hope,
http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/5239, 2009
A.M. Diederen, Global Resource Depletion, Managed Austerity and the Elements of Hope, Eburon Academic Publishers, Delft,
The Netherlands, ISBN 978-90-5972-425-9, 2010
Raw materials in the European defence industry, JRC science for policy report, EU, 2016
Donella Meadows, Leverage Points Places to Intervene in a System (1999), accessed via thesolutionsjournal.com/node/419,
October 2009
The shelf in 2016, Norwegian Petroleum Directorate, 12.01.2017
Norwegian Ministry of Trade and Industry, Strategy for the Mineral Industry, March 2013

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GLOBAL RESOURCE DEPLETION:

THREATS AND OPPORTUNITIES

Global Resource Depletion: Threats and Opportunities 4.04.2017

Global Resource Depletion: Threats and Opportunities 4.04.2017

SCARCITY IS DICTATED BY PRODUCTION RATE

Global Resource Depletion: Threats and Opportunities 4.04.2017

Source: ourfiniteworld.com, 30.01.2017 (based on BP 2016 Statistical Review of World Energy)

Global Resource Depletion: Threats and Opportunities 4.04.2017

GDP GROWTH IS LINKED TO OIL PRODUCTION

Global Resource Depletion: Threats and Opportunities 4.04.2017

NET ENERGY PER CAPITA: PLATEAU SINCE 1979

NET ENERGY CLIFF OR EXTENDED PLATEAU?

CSP: concentrated solar power

ENERGY RETURN ON INVESTMENT: KEEPS

Source: Charles A.S. Hall, Energy

ENERGY IS THE PRIMARY RESOURCE

Global Resource Depletion: Threats and Opportunities 4.04.2017

Global Resource Depletion: Threats and Opportunities 4.04.2017

ENERGY SCARCITY MEANS MATERIALS SCARCITY

Global Resource Depletion: Threats and Opportunities 4.04.2017