International Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics, 2013, 3, 260-273

http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/ijaa.2013.33031 Published Online September 2013 (http://www.scirp.org/journal/ijaa)

Are Uranus & Neptune Responsible for Solar Grand

Minima and Solar Cycle Modulation?
Geoff J. Sharp
Moonbeam Close, Narre Warren South, Melbourne, Australia
Email: gs_qad@hotmail.com

Received April 7, 2013; revised May 9, 2013; accepted May 16, 2013

Copyright 2013 Geoff J. Sharp. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which
permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

ABSTRACT
Detailed solar Angular Momentum (AM) graphs produced from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) DE405 ephemeris
display cyclic perturbations that show a very strong correlation with prior solar activity slowdowns. These same AM
perturbations also occur simultaneously with known solar path changes about the Solar System Barycentre (SSB). The
AM perturbations can be measured and quantified allowing analysis of past solar cycle modulations along with the
11,500 year solar proxy records (14C & 10Be). The detailed AM information also displays a recurring wave of modula-
tion that aligns very closely with the observed sunspot record since 1650. The AM perturbation and modulation is a
direct product of the outer gas giants (Uranus & Neptune). This information gives the opportunity to predict future
grand minima along with normal solar cycle strength with some confidence. A proposed mechanical link between solar
activity and planetary influence via a discrepancy found in solar/planet AM along with current AM perturbations indi-
cate solar cycle 24 & 25 will be heavily reduced in sunspot activity resembling a similar pattern to solar cycles 5 & 6
during the Dalton Minimum (1790-1830).

Keywords: Solar Grand Minimum; Solar Modulation; Angular Momentum; Uranus; Neptune; SSB; Barycentre

1. Introduction way as it moves to a disordered state during times of so-

Solar system dynamics have been postulated as the main
solar driver for many decades. Jose (1965) [1] was the
first to associate a recurring solar system pattern of the 4
outer planets (179 years). Jose suggested this pattern
correlates with the modulation of the solar cycle. New
research via this study suggests that over the past 6000
years the 179 year cycle cannot be maintained and is
closer to a 172 year cycle which aligns with the synodic
period of Uranus & Neptune (171.44 years). Later Land-
scheidt (2003) [2] progressed the planetary influence
theories further by associating quasi-cyclic negative torque
readings or zero crossings (AM readings going below
zero) that can occur near grand minima. It has been
found since that the negative readings occur in the gen-
eral region of most grand minima but such records are
not a reliable method of predicting the timing and strength
of grand minima at the solar cycle level.
Other studies detailed the orbit path of the Sun around
the Solar System Barycentre (SSB) that showed a bal-
anced trefoil pattern during times of normal solar cy-
cles. Charvtov (2000) [3] shows this pattern or path-
lar slowdown and are a direct result of the Uranus/Nep-
tune conjunction of the era.
Theodor Landscheidts work has inspired both profes-
sional and citizen scientists. For example, Carl Smith
(2007) [4] while researching Landscheidts work pro-
duced an AM graph using the JPL ephemeris (Figure 1).
This graph for the first time clearly showed the detailed
perturbations of solar AM that also coincide with past
solar slowdowns along with the disordered solar path
about the SSB. Carl Smith passed away in 2009 and to
our knowledge was probably not aware of the hidden
detail that was contained in his work, the Perturbed An-
gular Momentum curve holding the clue.
The perturbed curves on the solar AM graph (Figure 1)
correspond with solar torque perturbations, which also
alter the normal balanced solar path around the SSB. The
solar velocity is also perturbed on a 172-year cycle (av-
erage) and a greater diversion between the orbital AM of
the Sun and planets is observed. It is proposed through a
spin orbit coupling mechanism resulting in varying solar
equatorial rotation rate, the solar dynamo is reduced dur-
ing these 172 year intervals.

Copyright 2013 SciRes. IJAA

 G. J. SHARP 261

Sun-SSB angular momentum

5e+47

4e+47

3e+47
MAUNDER MINIMUM SC5 DALTON
2e+47

1e+47

-1e+47
1620 1640 1660 1680 1700 1720 1740 1760 1780 1800 1820

5e+47

4e+47

3e+47
MINIMUM SC7 SC12 SC20
2e+47

1e+47

-1e+47
1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

5e+47

4e+47

LANDSCHEIDT MINIMUM
3e+47
SC24
2e+47

1e+47

-1e+47
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120 2140 2160 2180

Figure 1. Detailed Solar Angular Momentum graph showing the perturbations (AMP events) at the green arrows. This graph
is a modified example of Carl Smiths original work that is based on JPL DE405 data. The green arrows and solar grand
minima headings have been added. Carl Smiths [4] original graph is displayed HERE Note: AM units of measure equate to
gram-cm^2/sec.

Copyright 2013 SciRes. IJAA

262 G. J. SHARP

2. DiscussionGrand Minima the strong Type A multiple appearances is one of the

The AM perturbations shown in Figure 1 are the result
of the extra AM from the Uranus/Neptune conjunction.
The timing in relation to the Jupiter/Saturn opposition
provides the different perturbation shapes that can be
measured via the relevant planet angles and categorised
into two groups. Perturbations occurring on the down
slope are denoted Type A and those on the up slope
Type B (down slope = right hand side of peak).
Type B occurrences coincide with weaker solar slow-
downs and are more common before 1000AD and the
Medieval Warm Period (MWP). Almost all perturbations
throughout the past 6000 years coincide with solar down-
turns that vary in intensity.
During the past 750 years strong Type A perturbations
are evident on the AM graph (Figure 1). Coinciding with
greatest sustained periods of grand minima of the Holo-
cene (Little Ice Age 1300 - 1870 approx.). The Type A
perturbations all have the same planetary configuration,
but with slightly differing planet angles (Figure 2).
Type A perturbations have a positive Saturn angle, the
higher the Saturn angle the higher the perturbation height
on the AM graph. Type B perturbations always display a
negative Saturn angle (Figure 2). During each conjunc-
tion of Uranus & Neptune, Jupiter & Saturn have multi-
ple oppositions. Depending on the planet positions of the
era this can result in normally 3 - 4 Angular Momentum
Perturbations (AMP) events for each Uranus/Neptune
conjunction. The midpoint of these AMP groups displays
a 172-year average spacing. The Sporer Minimum (1400 -
1600 approx.) has 2 strong AMP events, and 2 medium
AMP events that coincide with one of the longest and

15

NEPTUNE

URANUS

JUPITER

SUN

SATURN
SATURN

TYPE B TYPE A

-35 +30

Figure 2. Typical planet positions demonstrating strong Types A & B perturbations. The Type A example is taken from near
the centre of the Sporer Minimum (1472). Type B events coinciding with less reduction of solar activity compared with Type
A events of similar angle (reverse).

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 G. J. SHARP 263

deepest grand minima of the Holocene.
Type A AMP events have a major impact on the inner
loop trajectory of the Sun in its orbit around the SSB.
The Sun normally follows two distinct loops around the
SSB (Figure 3) with each loop lasting approximately ten
years. A shallow inner loop is evident when Jupiter &
Saturn are in opposition and a much wider loop when
Jupiter & Saturn are in conjunction. During strong Type
A AMP events the inner loop path is greatly extended
pushing the Sun out of its normal balanced trefoil pattern
whereas the normal trefoil pattern returns the Sun to near
the SSB on the inner loop path. The AMP event shows
the path greatly extended from the SSB, the inner loop is
trying to be an outer loop. Type B AMP events affect the
outer loop of the Suns path, which has the effect of re-
ducing the distance travelled away from the SSB. Ac-
companying the AMP events is usually a zero crossing
(solar AM goes below zero) where Saturn, Uranus &

Large perturbations occur

when the disordered inner
1985 orbit is higher than the
radius of the Sun

1995
2019

1987
Solar inner loop path change 2021
from J/S/U/N when ideal
type A alignment occurs that 1987
corresponds with green
arrows on Carls Graph. 2809
2017 2017

J+S
2031 conjunction
1991 1989
2011
1999
2023
2005
2015 J+S opposing
2029

2013

2039 2003 2027 2001 2025

2035

2037

Figure 3. The path of the Sun shows the two distinct loops around the SSB (centre point). The extended inner loop begin-
ning around 2005 coinciding with a reasonably strong Type A event. Solar cycle 24 is predicted to be the first grand mini-
mum cycle. The sunspot records since 1650 suggest that 2 solar cycles can be affected by strong Type A events, there is
speculation that the Hale cycle is interrupted and follows a 22-year-period. An animated movie of the path taken can be
viewed at http://www.landscheidt.info/images/sim.swf.

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 264 G. J. SHARP

Neptune are in conjunction with Jupiter opposing. This 1998b) [6] study and further extended by Solanki et al.
places the Sun right on the SSB, or indeed on the other (2004) [7] and Usoskin, Solanki & Kovaltsov (2007) [8].
side of the SSB. The zero crossings can occur either side The 14C values are compared with the AMP group cen-
of an AMP event. tre values (Figure 5). The isotope data show a strong cor-
The Carbon 14 (14C) record for the Holocene is a re- relation with each individual AMP group in timing and
liable solar proxy record. Recent Beryllium 10 (10Be) strength. Each AMP group centre has the relevant planet
isotope records derived from ice cores by Steinhilber, angles recorded including the orientation of Uranus/
Beer, Frolich (2009) [5] confirm the accuracy of the 14C Neptune (Figure 6). The Figure 6 refers to Figure 5 AM
record (Figure 4). During the 11,500 years of the Holo- group centres. Most AMP groups are comprised of three
cene a regular pattern of solar downturns can be observed to four separate AMP events separated by approx. 40
which vary in intensity. The 14C records used in this years.
report are originally from the INTCAL98 (Stuiver, et al., The planetary angles taken at the AMP events (Figure

70 14C vs 10Be with Angular Momentum.

60

50

40
Derived SSN

30

20

10

-10
Purple line = Angular Momentum Disturbance Strength (inverted)
-20
-1795

-1655

-1515

-1375
-1235

-1095

-955

-815

-675

-535

-395

-255
-115

25

165

305

445

585

725

865

1005

1145

1285

1425

1565
1705

1845
-14C Solanki 2005 Years = strong Type A disturbance
GM Centre Grand Minima Centre each 172 yr Avg. weighted by J/S angles
10 Be Steinhilber, Beer, Frohlich

Figure 4. Comparison of 14C and 10Be isotope records. The purple line is a representation of the AMP group strength (indi-
vidual AMP events are summed to form group totals, details follow in later section) with each point representing the AMP
centre. A full size image can be viewed at http://www.landscheidt.info/images/solanki_sharp.png. The isotope plots are a
graphical comparison of Solanki et al. (2004) [7] & Steinhilber et al. (2009) [5].
Maximum Angular Momentum Table. Year
-1145 -1105 -1065 -970 -885 -640 -610 -570 -460 -282 -172 -135 -25 85 185 305 365 480 580 760 842 942 1118 1340 1580 1762 1942
Year
-1130 -1085 -1054 -950 -871 -620 590 -550 -440 -262 155 -115 -5 100 206 321 385 500 600 780 859 960 1135 1360 1600 1772 1960
All eras selected from maximum momentum readings
Ang Ang
taken just before or after Grand Minima opportunity Mom
4.18 4.47 4.07 4.3 4.0 3.61 4.36 4.33 3.78 3.78 3.4 3.64 3.9 4.2 3.2 4.2 3.2 4.3 4.04 4.07 3.8 4.22 4.41 4.3 3.5 3.64 3.7
Mom

except those marked

ANGULAR MOMENTUM vs CARBON 14

80

60
Usoskin Grand Maxima Line
Sunspot number

40 Sharp Grand Minima Line

20

Usoskin Grand Minima Line

0
-10000 -9000 -8000 -7000 -6000 -5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000
-3666 -3514 -3335 -3155-2989 -2810 -2657 -2478 -2298 -2119 -1940 -1788 -1621 -1442 -1263 -1110 -931 -762 -573 -394 -215 -75 106 284 463 602 781 961 1293 1472 1651 1831

Figure 5. Graphical representation modified from the Usoskin et al. (2007) [8] solar proxy report. Usoskin determined that
grand minima occur under 15SSN (derived SSN figures, blue line) that isolates Dalton Minimum type events. By raising the
bar (green line) the repeating pattern of grand minima is observed. The middle AMP event per group is shown below the
date axis with the peaks in AM shown at the top of the graph. Strong AMP groups coinciding with deep Grand Minima
shown below blue line. A full size image can be viewed at http://www.landscheidt.info/images/c14nujs1.jpg.

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 G. J. SHARP 265

Year 3666 3514 3335 3155 2989 2810 2657 2478 2298 2119 1940

Pos N/L N/L N/L N/L N/L N/L N/L N/L N/L U/L U/L

N/U 8 55 27 10 23 2 45 38 7 5 14

J/S 55 +32 +32 +40 78 95 +2 +10 0 12 13

Year 1788 1621 1442 1263 1110 931 752 573 394 215 75 106

Pos N/L N/L N/L Draw N/L N/L N/L Draw U/L U/L N/L N/L

N/U 13 22 13 2 30 30 16 0 17 42 30 13

J/S +85 35 34 45 +58 +62 +35 +18 +9 0 0 10

Year 284 463 602 781 961 1153 1293 1472 1651 1831 2010

Pos U/L U/L N/L N/L N/L U/L N/L N/L U/L U/L U/L

N/U 3 35 40 30 15 30 48 15 5 20 40

J/S 24 36 30 35 65 +53 +55 +30 +25 +25 +25

Figure 6. Planet angle tables referring to Figure 5 displaying the middle AMP event per 172 year average period. Pos = rela-
tive Uranus/Neptune position i.e. Neptune leading Uranus etc. N/U = angle measured between Neptune & Uranus. J/S = angle
measured away from Jupiter/Saturn opposition.

6) providing a statistical measurement that can be com-
pared with the AMP events and Figure 1. The depth of
the solar downturns shown on the 14C graphs coinciding
with the planet angles and observed AMP events, deep
troughs aligning with strong Type A events and sustained
periods of strong solar activity aligning with periods of
weaker Type B events. Type A events can also be weak
depending on the planet angles. Type B events occurring
before 1000AD are a result of the changing planet angles
that move slowly over long periods of time. The overall
background shape of the 14C graph coincides with the
occurrence and strength of Types A & B events. During
times of multiple sustained Type B events, each 172 year
cycle group can carry more than 3 events as observed in
Figure 7.
Figure 7 shows each individual AMP event making up
each AMP group, the strength of each disturbance coin-
ciding with the relevant planet angles. Type A events
with a J/S angle around +30 degree and N/U angle of 15
degree providing the strongest downturns, Type B&A
events with a J/S angle near zero degree or 180 degree
providing the weakest downturn. Weak AMP events co-
incide with the Medieval Warm Period 950AD-1250AD
(Figure 8).
The Sporer Minimum (Figure 9) displayed the longest
period of solar inactivity across the Little Ice Age coin-
ciding with 3 strong Type A events and 1 Type B event.
The last two AMP events during the Maunder Minimum
being stronger than the initial AMP event occurring
around 1610. Also see Figures 1 and 8.
3. Determining AMP Strength
The purple line shown on Figure 4 is a representation of
the AMP strength of the era that follows the general
trend of solar activity. The method used (Figure 10) is a
preliminary method using visual observation of each dis-
turbance of the graph period. Figure 1 displays the dif-
ferent types of AMP events that cycle in groups every
172 years (average). These disturbances always line up
with periods of solar downturn.
The Solanki/Steinhilber [5,7] data shows regular solar
downturns that vary in intensity, by observing the shapes
of the AMP events that align with these downturns we
are able to see a pattern that is repeatable.
There are rare occasions of strong Type A AMP events
that do not cause solar activity reduction or perhaps not
as low as expected, when not meeting the Wilson Test
described in Wilson et al. (2008) [9] (Figure 11). This
test states that for an AMP event to fully utilize the dis-
turbance, the Jupiter/Saturn opposition or conjunction
must happen before cycle maximum (to achieve a cycle
with less than 80SSN). This has been tested over the
sunspot record but is not available for accurate testing
beyond this point as the cycle maximum date is not
known. 1830 and 530 are probable examples of this
phenomena, during 1830 the Jupiter/Saturn conjunction
occurred before cycle maximum. AMP events need to
occur well before cycle maximum to achieve full impact.

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266 G. J. SHARP

70
14C vs Angular Momentum
60
50
40
Derived SSN

30
20
10
0 14C Solanki
Hi Ang Mom
Type A
-10 Type B
WEAK STRONG STRONG WEAK WEAK GAINING STRENGTH RELAPSE VERY STRONG WEAKENING
-20-985
-895
-805
-715
-625
-535
-445
-355
-265
-175
-1795
-1705
-1615
-1525
-1435
-1345
-1255
-1165
-1075

-85
5
95
185
275
365
455
545
635
725
815
905
995
1085
1175
1265
1355
1445
1535
1625
1715
1805
1895
Years

Figure 7. Individual AMP events plotted directly onto the Solanki data [7]. As each conjunction of Uranus & Neptune has a
varying Jupiter/Saturn position, the strength of each individual AMP event along with the AMP group total changes over the
millennia. This can be represented as the AM power curve of the Holocene. A full size image can be viewed at http://
www.landscheidt.info/images/solanki_sharp_detail.jpg. The spreadsheet with original Solanki data [7] with AMP events is
available at http://www.landscheidt.info/images/solanki_sharp.xls.

Sun-SSB angular momentum

5.00E+47

4.00E+47
Ang Mom

3.00E+47

2.00E+47
1.00E+47
0.00E+00
900 920 940 960 980 1000 1020 1040 1060 1080 1100
5.00E+47
4.00E+47
Ang Mom

3.00E+47
2.00E+47
1.00E+47
0.00E+00
1080 1100 1120 1140 1160 1180 1200 1220 1240 1260 1280
5.00E+47
4.00E+47
Ang Mom

3.00E+47
2.00E+47
1.00E+47
0.00E+00
1260 1280 1300 1320 1340 1360 1380 1400 1420 1440 1460
5.00E+47
4.00E+47
Ang Mom

3.00E+47
2.00E+47
1.00E+47
0.00E+00
-1.00E+47
1440 1460 1480 1500 1520 1540 1560 1580 1600 1620 1640
Type A Years Type B

Figure 8. Solar AM graph depicting the period from 900AD - 1640AD. The change in Type A dominance shown after 1100AD.
The MWP possibly being the only period during the Holocene not to be affected by the recurring 172 years AMP pattern.
This is a time of transition moving from very weak Type B occurrence to a strengthening Type A dominance. The AMP
events at 930 & 970 are midway between Types A & B. Note: AM units of measure equate to gram-cm^2/sec.

Copyright 2013 SciRes. IJAA

 G. J. SHARP 267

Solar Activity Events in 14C

Medieval Modern
Maximun Maximun -20

-10

14C (permille)
Maunder
Sprer
Oort Minimum
weak Minimum weak 0
Minimum Dalton
Wolf
Minimum 10
=TypeB AMP Minimum
=Type A AMP 20

1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

Year AD

Figure 9. Carbon 14 graph (Wikipedia) with the AMP events overlaid.

Year Count Conv

Type B
1830 5 11
1651 9 15
1472 7 3
1293 7 3
1153 2 23
961 4 15
781 4 15
2 1 .5 602 6 7
463 5 11
Type A
284 3 19
106 2 23
-75 2 23
-215 3 19
-394 8 -1
-573 8 -1
-752 10 -9
-931 4 15
4 3 2 1
-1110 4 15

Count 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Conversion 23 19 15 11 7 3 -1 -5 -9

Figure 10. Charts showing the AMP strength quantification method. Each count unit corresponding with 4 units of Usoskin
[8] derived SSN units. Future quantification methods involving accurate planet angles would provide more detail.

By matching the AMP event shapes on the AM graphs
with solar downturn strength each disturbance can be
quantified. AMP events that align with deep grand min-
ima (on a constant basis throughout history) get the high-
est score and also show the same shape or perturbation.
4. DiscussionSolar Cycle Modulation
Solar cycle strength depicted by SSN (smoothed sunspot
number) follows a recurring wave of power that follows
the overall AM values. The AM wave displays a peak at
the Uranus/Neptune conjunction and the corresponding
trough at the Uranus/Neptune opposition, Scafetta (2009,
2010) [10] also recognized this trend in his work dealing
with the celestial origin of climate oscillations. The SSN
record of the past 400 years when matched with this
wave shows a strong correlation. The AMP events that

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268 G. J. SHARP

Sun-SSB angular momentum

5e+47

4e+47

3e+47

2e+47

1e+47

-1e+47
1620 1640 1660 1680 1700 1720 1740 1760 1780 1800 1820

5e+47

4e+47

3e+47

2e+47

1e+47

-1e+47
1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

5e+47

4e+47

3e+47

2e+47

1e+47

-1e+47
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120 2140 2160 2180

Figure 11. Wilsons Test. Black dots are Jupiter/Saturn together, Blue dots Jupiter/Saturn opposed, and Red dots are solar
cycle maxima, reduced solar activity occurs when a black or blue dot occurs in between cycle minimum and before cycle
maximum. 1830 & 1790 does not pass the test. The yellow circles comply with Wilsons Test. Note: AM units of measure
equate to gram-cm^2/sec.

always occur at different intensities and length near the background solar engine that affects cycle modulation
AM maximum interrupt the correlation and work as a (SSN) but not the length of the cycle. Other processes
separate process. The AM sine wave is also seen as a determine the length of each solar cycle.

Copyright 2013 SciRes. IJAA

 G. J. SHARP 269

The Damon Minimum (1856-1913) is sometimes de- To visualise the importance of the low points in rela-
scribed as a grand minimum and is most likely an exam- tion to the high points of the AM graph, a centre point
ple of a low sunspot cycle/s affected by low AM at the needs to be determined and the values recorded under
time of the Uranus/Neptune opposition and not a true that centre point are inverted. This provides a true read-
grand minimum. AMP events are not observed during ing of the AM strength (Figures 13 and 14). For the past
these intervals with only low AM recorded. The AMP 400 years an AM reading of 2E + 47 (gram-cm^2/sec)
event is thought to create a phase catastrophe situation was used from Carl Smiths data as the centre point.
that perhaps is responsible for reported monopolar solar
pole readings of the Maunder Minimum by Callebaut et 5. Angular Momentum Data Formula
al., (2007) [11]. The monopolar position is effectively
The original Carl Smith AM data [4] is referenced and
providing the majority of sunspot activity to a single so-
validated by independent analysis carried out by G. E.
lar hemisphere. The monopolar position being described
Pease using JPL DE405 coordinates and the following
as a prolonged period where the solar poles have the
standard AM formula:
same polarity as a result of only one pole reversing po-
larity during the Hale cycle. These events need to be ac-
yz zy zx xz xy yx
2 2 2
LM
commodated when comparing the AM modulation versus
the sunspot cycle modulation. The monopolar distur- M is the Mass of the Sun in kilograms. x, y, z, xdot,
bance to the normal Hale cycle could explain the occur- ydot, zdot must be converted from kilometres and km/sec
rence of twin low cycles paired during grand minima to metres and metres/sec to get m^2ks units. The equa-
even though the second cycle is not perturbed. The poles tion yields the absolute value of L, using the instantane-
require the extra cycle to maintain the normal synchro- ous cross products of the bodys position and velocity
nised state. The key point being that low cycles can be a vectors (Figure 15).
result of low AM without experiencing phase catastro-
phe conditions. Grand minima occur during the higher 6. Proposed Mechanical Link via Spin Orbit
part of the AM wave. Coupling
The AM graphs show a sine wave of AM modulation
(around 10 years), the low points are considered as im- A spin orbit coupling mechanism has been discussed by
portant as the high points. While a direct mechanical link Wilson et al. (2008) [9] which translates into a varying
between AM modulation and solar cycle modulation re- solar equatorial rotation speed, enabling changes to the
mains theoretical there is a direct example of some physi- solar dynamo and the meridional flows. Solar equatorial
cal connection. The solar velocity (Figure 12) around the rotation rate changes have been recorded by Javaraiah
SSB is absolutely linked to the AM sine wave that pro- (2003) [12] based on sunspot movement records.
vides a roughly decadal acceleration/deceleration phase. Total Angular Momentum is the combination of orbital

Solar AM
Solar Velocity km/s vs Angular Momentum
Solar velocity km/s
1600
1612
1624
1636
1649
1661
1673
1685
1697
1709
1722
1734
1746
1758
1770
1782
1795
1807
1819
1831
1843
1855
1868
1880
1892
1904
1916
1928
1941
1953
1965
1977
1989
2001
2014
2026

5.00E+47 0.0175
= 172 year AMP event centres
4.50E+47 0.0165
4.00E+47
Solar AM (gram-cm2/sec)

0.0155
3.50E+47
Solar Vel (km/s)

0.0145
3.00E+47
0.0135
2.50E+47
0.0125
2.00E+47
0.0115
1.50E+47

1.00E+47 0.0105

5.00E+46 0.0095

5.50E-03 0.0085

Figure 12. Solar AM values matched with solar velocity. The red dots displaying the 172-year centre of the AMP groups. Note
the repeating pattern of change in velocity. Data source: Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

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270 G. J. SHARP

ANGULAR MOMENTUM STRENGTH (2.0e+47 centre)

Geoff Sharp April 2009 www.landscheidt.info
4.90E+47
Neptune/Uranus opposing Neptune/Uranus opposing

4.40E+47

3.90E+47

3.40E+47

2.90E+47

2.40E+47

1.90E+47
1600
1611

1623
1634
1646

1657
1669
1680

1692
1703
1715

1726
1738

1749
1761
1772

1784
1795
1807

1818
1830

1841
1853
1864
1876

1887
1899
1910
1922

1933
1945
1956

1968
1979
1991

2002
2013
2025
2036
= grand minimum affected cycle = grand minimum producing cycle (possible)

Figure 13. Manipulated Solar AM graph using Carl Smiths original data [4] with all points on Figure 1 below 2E + 47 in-
verted. High and low AM extremes on Figure 1 are considered of equal importance, with high and low AM corresponding
with strong solar cycles (outside of AMP events). High AM is linked with larger outer loop paths and lower AM linked with
tighter inner loop paths towards the SSB as seen in Figure 3.
ANGULAR MOMENTUM STRENGTH (2.0e+47 centre)
Geoff Sharp April 2009 www.landscheidt.info
4.90E+47
Neptune/Uranus opposing Neptune/Uranus opposing
angular momentum
4.40E+47

3.90E+47

3.40E+47

2.90E+47

2.40E+47

sunspot cycles
1.90E+47
1600
1611

1623
1634
1646

1657
1669
1680

1692
1703
1715

1726
1738

1749
1761
1772

1784
1795
1807

1818
1830

1841
1853
1864
1876

1887
1899
1910
1922

1933
1945
1956

1968
1979
1991

2002
2013
2025
= grand minimum affected cycle = grand minimum producing cycle (possible) 2036

Figure 14. The values of Figure 13 are compared with the SIDC Smoothed Sunspot Number (SSN) values (overlaid graphi-
cally). Once allowing for AMP events and the coinciding low solar amplitude, the derived AM strength follows the SIDC
sunspot record.

Solar Orbital Angular Momentum (kg-m2/s)

Msun*sqrt((YZdot-ZYdot)2+(ZXdot-XZdot)2+(XYdot-YXdot)2)

4.5E+40
4.0E+40
3.5E+40
3.0E+40
2.5E+40
2.0E+40
1.5E+40
1.0E+40
5.0E+40
0.0E+40
1700 1710 1720 1730 1740 1750 1760 1770 1780 1790 1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Figure 15. G. E. Pease AM graph depicting the same AMP events and timing as the Smith AM graph. The G. E. Pease graph
using JPL DE405 xyz coordinate data and the above formula to produce the same AM outcomes as Figure 1.

Copyright 2013 SciRes. IJAA


AM and spin AM. The laws of AM conservation allow a
trade off between orbital AM and spin AM. Each body
in the solar system has its own orbital AM that can be
calculated using the standard formula:
yz zy zx xz xy yx
2 2
LM
If there is a discrepancy between solar orbital AM and
planet/body orbital AM the laws of AM conservation
would allow changes to a bodys spin AM. This could re-
sult in a varying solar equatorial rotation rate.
To perform this task all the solar system planets and
the asteroids Ceres, Juno, Vesta, Pallas, Eugenia, Siwa &
Chiron have been included to arrive at a total planet AM.
Data coordinates were taken from the JPL DE405 ephe-
meris.
To compare planet AM with solar AM the inertial
frame should be the same. The JPL DE405 heliocentric
planetary coordinates are referred to the solar system ba-
rycentric inertial frame rather than the heliocentric iner-
tial frame, which required a transformation of our com-
puted planetary angular momenta to the heliocentric in-
ertial frame. The planet AM was calculated using helio-
centric coordinates, the solar data was calculated using
the SSB as the axis point (barycentric), then the solar
AM is subtracted from the planet AM to achieve the
same inertial frame.
The following graph (Figure 16) displays a divergence
between solar and planet orbital AM. A future study will
be performed with G.E. Pease further outlining this pro-
cedure. Extending this graph back over the whole Little
Ice Age may prove interesting, possibly showing us an-
other method of identifying solar slow down by studying
the planetary AM and its relationship with solar AM.
Geoff Sharp, Gerry Nov 2009
www.landscheidt.info
5.00E+40
4.50E+40 Sun AM
Planet AM
4.00E+40
3.50E+40
3.00E+40
Solar AM
2.50E+40
2.00E+40
1.50E+40
1.00E+40
0.50E+40
0.00E+40
-5.00E+40
1900- 1906- 1913- 1920- 1927- 1934- 2041- 1947- 1954- 1961- 1968- 1975- 1982- 1988- 1995- 2002- 2009- 2016- 2023- 2030- 2036-
Jan-01 Nov-06 Sep-10 Jul-10 May-20 Mar-24 Jan-26 Dec-01 Oct-05 Aug-09 Jun-13 Apr-18 Feb-20 Dec-25 Oct-30 Sep-03 Jul-08 May-12 Mar-17 Jan-19 Nov-23
Figure 16. Differences in orbital AM become clear when viewed in the correct inertial frame. Note the near constancy
(smaller range of deviation from top to bottom) of the Planet AM after subtracting the solar AM. The Planet AM is now con-
stant to six significant figures, whereas it was only constant to three significant figures before the inertial frame transforma-
tion. We believe the residual variations in the seventh and higher significant digits may be the result of spin orbit coupling
between the planetary orbits and solar rotation.
Copyright 2013 SciRes.
G. J. SHARP 271
Some big questions remain.
7. Conclusions and Predictions
The correlation of the inverted AM values with the ex-
2
isting sunspot record, along with the quantification of
AMP events provides a platform for future sunspot pre-
diction out to 3000AD. Cycles 24 & 25 are predicted to
be less than 50SSN using the Laymans Sunspot Count
(based on the SIDC values but ignoring specks rated
lower than 23 pixels). Solar cycle 20 was the first stage
of the current AMP group that failed to generate a full
grand minimum. This stems from the very weak AMP
event caused by the late timing of the Uranus/Neptune
conjunction and the failed Wilsons Test. The current
AMP group does not display a third event that is ex-
tremely rare and hence will allow a modest recovery
during solar cycle 26 (Figure 17). Looking out further,
the next 1000 years do not show any major chances for
deep grand minima that should provide stable conditions
for future generations, not withstanding the possible en-
try into the next ice age (Figure 18).
Solar cycle 24 will need to reach maximum after March
2011 to comply with the Wilsons Test.
Further information on the Laymans Sunspot Count can
be found at: http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/50.
8. Acknowledgements
Special thanks go to G. E. Pease for confirming Carl
Smiths AM data and for the advice and input on inertial
frames.
The author would also like to thank Nicola Scafetta for
providing advice and the initial peer review.
Sun AM vs Planet AM
3.13281870E+43
3.13281770E+43
3.13281670E+43
Planet AM
3.13281570E+43
3.13281470E+43
3.13281370E+43
3.13281270E+43
3.13281170E+43
Year
IJAA
272 G. J. SHARP

Angular Momentum & Past/Future Solar Activity

Geoff Sharp June 2009
www.landscheidt.info

4.90E+47
Neptune/Uranus opposing Neptune/Uranus opposing
Angular Momentum

4.40E+47

3.90E+47

3.40E+47

2.90E+47

2.40E+47

Past Solar Activity Predicted Solar Activity

1.90E+47

2001
2012
2023
2034
2045
2056
2067
2078
2089
2100
2111
2122
2133
2144
2155
2166
2177
2188
2199
1780
1791
1802
1813
1824
1835
1846
1857
1868
1879
1890
1901
1912
1923
1934
1946
1957
1968
1979
1990
= grand minimum affected cycle = grand minimum producing cycle (possible)

Figure 17. 200-year solar cycle prediction. The trough in the sunspot record coinciding with the opposition of Uranus & Nep-
tune in past records and is expected to remain the same. Solar proxy records do not show high solar activity during times of
low AM (Figures 5 & 7). The length of each future solar cycle remains unknown and predicted solar cycles should be taken as
a guide with the overall trend being important. AM timing does not seem to be related to solar cycle timing. Predictions are
based on overall AM strength.

70 Geoff Sharp Sept 2009 14C vs Angular Momentum

www.landscheidt.info
60

50

40
30
Derived SSN

MWP Great Warming Plateau

20
Dalton

10 Sporer
Landscheidt
0 14C wolf

-10 GM Centre Maunder

-20
-1795

-1625
-1455
-1285
-1115

-945

-775

-605
-435
-265
-95

75
245
415
585
755
925
1095

1265

1435
1605
1775

1945

2115
2285
2455

2625

2795

Years

Figure 18. Earths future climate based on the projected solar activity using the same method as described in the chapter
headed Determining AMP Strength. Deep grand minima are not expected. GM centre refers to the central AMP event oc-
curring each 172 years on average, all AMP events in that group are totalled.

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