EUROPEAN COMMISSION

JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE

Thursday, 17 September 2015

Mw 8.3 Chile Earthquake and Tsunami

Chile, 16 Sep 2015 22.54 UTC (19.54 local time)
Last update: 17 Sep 2015 19:00 UTC

1 Executive Summary
A major earthquake of magnitude 8.3 Mw at a
depth of 25 km occurred on the 16th of
September at 22.54 UTC in the Pacific Ocean, in
the sea area west of central Chile, very close to
the coast. The epicentre was located
approximately midway between the port cities of
Valparaiso and Coquimbo, ca. 250 km NW of
Santiago. USGS-PAGER estimates 42 000 people
exposed to Severe and more than 800 000 to
Very Strong shaking. The earthquake triggered
a significant tsunami that reached a measured
max. height of around 4.8m at the Chilean coast
near Coquimbo. The whole of the coast of Chile
was put on Red Alert by the local authorities
following the event, and a Tsunami Threat
Message was issued by the Pacific Tsunami
Warning Centre for a large part of the whole
Pacific coasts. Coastal evacuations were promptly
ordered by the Chilean Authorities and around 1
million people have been evacuated according to
media reports. Aftershocks as strong as 7 Mw Figure 1- Map of the earthquake's area
followed the main event.

As of early on 17 September, Chilean authorities and media report five people killed by the direct effects of
the earthquake (falling debris). Worst affected by building damage and landslides are the communities of
Illapel, Canela and Salamanca; Choapa province was declared a disaster zone. Media reports also show
coastal flooding by tsunami; the extent of tsunami damage was not ascertained yet, as of 10:00 UTC on
September 17. JRC calculations estimate a maximum tsunami height of 7.5 m occurring in the location Los
Vilos.

The JRC is following the event closely. GDACS issued a first Orange Alert approx 6 min after the event,
followed by a Red Alert 20 min after the event, when the conditions were revised by seismological
organizations. A brief report on the event was issued by the JRC-centred GTIMS2 partner network of
seismological centres 1 hour after the event, followed by a more extensive report within 3h from the event.
Copernicus Emergency Mapping Service was also activated by the Emergency Response and Coordination
Centre on Sep. 17.

Joint Research Centre, I-21020 Ispra (VA), Italy

2 Situation Overview
2.1 Event details and risk
Event Location and Significance: The 8.3 (moment magnitude) earthquake struck on 16/09/2015 at 22:54
UTC or 19.54 local time, under sea but very close to the coast (around 5km from the ocast and 45 km west
of the town of Illapel. The hypocentre depth was 25km. It was widely felt all over the country and as far as
Buenos Aires in Argentina. It is considered a major event, and it is the strongest earthquake in the world
since April 2012 and the largest in Chile since February 2010 (the tsunami in 2010 killed more than 500
people).

Alerts: The whole of the coast of Chile was put on Red Alert by the National Authorities and a Tsunami
Threat Message was issued by the Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre for a large of the whole western
American coast. For the alerts issued by GDACS and the Joint Research Centre, see Section 3 of this report.

Seismic Hazard: The undersea earthquake was close enough to the shore to cause significant damage by
shaking; however, no major populated places were very near the epicentre. USGS reports Severe shaking
(VIII in the Modified Mercalli scale) for 42 000 people; this intensity can cause moderate to heavy damage,
particularly in weak structures. Another 800 000 people were subjected to Very Strong shaking (MMI VII),
including the cities of Illapel (23 000 people, closest city to the epicentre), Coquimbo (160 000 people) and
La Serena (155 000 people).

Tsunami Hazard: Earthquakes of this magnitude can produce very dangerous tsunamis, and close to 1
million people were ordered to evacuate coastal areas

2.2 Impact on population and infrastructure

Despite the large magnitude, the high intensity and the tsunami,
damage and casualties seem to be quite limited, at least as of midday
of 17 September. Emergency authorities report 8 deaths (4 of them in
Coquimbo) of which only 4 seem to be directly caused by the
earthquake (falling debris). Media reports later in the afternoon
quoting ONEMI officials raised the number of deaths to 10. 135 000
households are reported to be without electricity in Coquimbo Region,
1 800 households without drinking water in Illapel, 1 300 households
without drinking water in Salamanca. The road network affected due to
landslides in the Coquimbo Region the province most affected is
Choapa (declared a disaster zone), most adjacent to the epicentre and particularly the communities of
Illapel, Canela and Salamanca. As of early afternoon on 17 September there were reports of coastal damage
but no exact information on the effects of the tsunami, except some photos of damage in ports.

Figure 2: Damage by tsunami in Chile (Photos by "El Mostrador" and "La Segunda")
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Joint Research Centre, I-21020 Ispra (VA), Italy

In general, Chile exhibits a high resilience to strong earthquakes in the past few years (especially after the
major event of 2010) and the population is considered rather well prepared. A number of recent strong
earthquakes in the area (including a major 8.2 earthquake in 2014 that triggered a tsunami of around 2m)
off the coasts of northern Chile also helped keep readiness at a high level. The Tsunami Early Warning
system worked properly and alerted the population in time to avoid major consequences.

3 JRC analysis of the event

JRC is responsible for

1. the operation of GDACS, www.gdacs.org that plays a major role in alerting the international
community to humanitarian emergencies during natural disasters.
2. The coordination of the GTIMS2 Tsunami Alert network of seismological centres (Global Informal
Monitoring System)
3. The management of the Copernicus Emergency Mapping Service, that is triggered to provide
satellite data on very short time scales in case of major incidents

3.1 JRC/GDACS alerts

The alerts of GDACS (Green, Orange, Red) are elaborated based on the severity of the event, the population
involved and the vulnerability of the countries. Apart from the Alerts published on the web, GDACS also
sends e-mail and SMS alerts to subscribed recipients; in the present event, xxxxx e-mails and xxxxx SMS
messages were dispatched, few minutes after the event. GDACS also posts alerts in the main social media
platforms, reaching over 500 followers on Facebook and over 2 000 on Twitter.

The events timeline is indicated in the following table

Table 1 Timeline of GDACS events

Although GDACS is an automatic system and all the estimations are based on event detection and launch of
dedicated calculations, the last value of the impact estimation has been obtained by perfoming a manual
calculation few hours after the event, when more precise information on the fault mechanism were
available from USGS. This is the reference calculation desscribed here: in the next days the reference
calculation could change if more detailed information become available.

The conditions above have been obtained by USGS (solution 1)1 . The following table reports the lis of the
first 20 locations reached by the Tsunami wave. The full list of location is present in the GDACS web site
(see references). The calculation was performed with the following conditions:

1
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us20003k7a#scientific_tensor:us_us_20003k7a_mww

Joint Research Centre, I-21020 Ispra (VA), Italy

Epicentre
Latitude: -31.60
Longitude: -71.70
Magnitude: 8.30
Depth: 24.0 (km, Middle of fault - hypocentre)
Water Depth: -232 (m)
Event Date: 16 Sep 2015 22:54

Fault Geometry
Displacement: 6 (m)
Width: 62 (km)
Lenght: 223 (km)
Strike: 353 (deg - North=0)
Dip: 19 (deg)
Rake 83 (deg)

The estimated maximum height was 7.5 m, in Los Vilos (31.92 S, 71.51 W) but many other locations are
estimated to have been severely impacted by the Tsunami wave. These evaluations have also been used in
order to identify the areas mostly affected for which the Copernicus Service was requested (see later).

Figure 3 Estimated maximum height at the coast

Joint Research Centre, I-21020 Ispra (VA), Italy

 Time of Max Height Country Location Height ID
16 Sep 2015 23:16 Chile Maitencillo 3.7 -30.99 -71.64
16 Sep 2015 22:59 Chile Maitencillo 2.6 -31.30 -71.58
16 Sep 2015 23:25 Chile Quillaicillo 3.2 -31.41 -71.57
16 Sep 2015 23:32 Chile Angostura 4.9 -31.50 -71.55
16 Sep 2015 23:01 Chile Pichidangui 2.5 -32.13 -71.53
16 Sep 2015 23:01 Chile Totoralillo 2.6 -32.04 -71.53
16 Sep 2015 23:28 Chile Los Vilos 7.5 -31.92 -71.51
16 Sep 2015 23:01 Chile Quilimari 2.6 -32.12 -71.49
16 Sep 2015 23:28 Chile Conchali 7.5 -31.88 -71.49
16 Sep 2015 23:19 Chile Ingeniero Santa Maria 4.6 -32.23 -71.47
16 Sep 2015 23:48 Chile Guaquen 3.3 -32.30 -71.45
17 Sep 2015 00:32 Chile Quintero 3.9 -32.78 -71.54
16 Sep 2015 23:32 Chile Huentelauquen 4.9 -31.58 -71.53
16 Sep 2015 23:29 Chile Chigualoco 3.9 -31.75 -71.50
17 Sep 2015 00:11 Chile Pite 3.2 -32.52 -71.48
17 Sep 2015 00:20 Chile Las Cujas 2.7 -32.57 -71.47
16 Sep 2015 23:29 Chile Gauchal 3.9 -31.77 -71.47
17 Sep 2015 00:11 Chile Papudo 3.2 -32.51 -71.45
16 Sep 2015 23:48 Chile El Romeral 3.3 -32.42 -71.38
17 Sep 2015 00:26 Chile Ritoque 4.9 -32.83 -71.52
Table 2 first 20 locations reached by the Tsunami wave. In some cases the wave arrived after 3-4 minutes

The comparison between measured and calculated sea level allows selecting the right scenario and the
quality of the calculation.

The expected and measured sea level is Coquimbo

compared in three locations: Coquimbo,
Valparaiso and the Juan Fernandez Island.
Those are not the only available tidal gauges:
there are many more. Infact Chile strongly
improved the installed instrumentation after
the 2010 event. Those were chosen with the Juan Fernandez
short time available for the analysis.

More detailed analysis will follow in the next Valparaiso

weeks to fully characterize the event.

Figure 4 Identification of the tidal gauges used for the comparison

The analysis of the event shows that the main

features of the event are captured by the calculations. In particular it is very important the fact that also
this time, likewise in 2010, the sea level shows several periodic peaks caused by the bathymetry in front of
Chilean coast that causes waves reflection (sloshing). The importance is that the waves tend to increase
and the third wave is larger than the first one. In Juan Fernandez the arrival time is predicted correctly and
the amplitude is slightly overestimated. The period instead is right.

Joint Research Centre, I-21020 Ispra (VA), Italy

 Figure 5 Sea level measured (red) and calculated (blue) in Coquimbo

Figure 6 -Sea level measured (red) and calculated (blue) in Valparaiso

Joint Research Centre, I-21020 Ispra (VA), Italy

 Figure 7 -Sea level measured (red) and calculated (blue) in Juan Fernandez Island

A more extended calculation has also been performed in order to understand the wave propagation in the
Pacific Ocean. This calculation was performed with a rougher nodalization, as the cell size was 5 instead of
1 minute, as for the short range forecast.

The results indicate, see next figure, that most of the damage occurred in Chile; from the simulation the
maximum wave height in various Pacific highlands does not exceed 1 m.

At the time of the report issuing the wave is still propagating in the Pacific Ocean and is expected to reach
Japan tonight, at about 20:49 after several hours of travel time. The expected maximum height in Japan is
about 0.2-0.3 m.

Figure 8 Sea level in Kawaihae, Hawaii. The arrival time is at 13:30 of 17 Sep

Joint Research Centre, I-21020 Ispra (VA), Italy

 Figure 9 Pacific wide simulation of the Chile event

3.2 The Global Tsunami Informal Monitoring System initiative-2

JRC, in collaboration with DG-ECHO has established the second edition of the Global Tsunami Informal
Monitoring System (GTIMS-2) that is aimed at: providing a training opportunity for the Tsunami Warning
Center in the Mediterranean And North Atlantic area (NEAMTWS) and to provide a 24/7 analytical support
to the ERCC. The system is activated whenever an event of magnitude larger than Mw 7 is occurring. This
time the system was activated and two of the three centers that are on duty this month (KOERI, Turkey and
NOA, Greece) produced within 1 h from the event a first Flash report, followed after 2h by an extended
report. A final report is expected within 24 h from the event by the other operational team (NIEP, Romania)
and by additional two backup teams (IPMA, Portugal and CNRST, Maroc).

A dedicated application allows ERCC to follow the evolution of the event and eventually pose questions to
the teams involved in the analysis. This is a first form of Scientific Partnership within the European Union
that will be further developed in other initiatives of JRC together with other General Directions.

3.3 Copernicus Emergency Mapping Service

The Emergency Response and Coordination Centre of DG ECHO activated the EMS Copernicus Rapid
Mapping service for the Earthquake in Chile on 17 September, at 09.34 UTC (Code EMSR137)..

3.4 Involvement with other services of the Commission

In case of significant events such as this earthquake, JRC provides scientific support to the Emergency
Response and Coordination Centre (ERCC) of DG ECHO, through information bulletins (published in
http://ercportal.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ ), dedicated maps and reports such as the present. JRC informed the
ERCC with a Flash report from the GTIMS-2 service at 4:19 CEST and a preliminary analysis of the event at
5:35 CEST. During the day a more detailed map, including several layers was produced and sent to ERCC at
17:30 CEST (Appendix A).
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Joint Research Centre, I-21020 Ispra (VA), Italy

4 Response of the Chilean Authorities
The official national agency of Chile responsible for issuing tsunami alerts is the Chilean Navy Hydrographic
Service (http://www.shoa.cl/).

Their alerts had the following time sequence as depicted in their web site.

16-09-2015 72 KM AL NW DE 17-09-2015 06:19 CANCELACION TOTAL DEL ESTADO DE ALARMA DE TSUNAMI

19:54 PICHIDANGUI 17-09-2015 05:18 CANCELACION PARCIAL DEL ESTADO DE ALARMA DE TSUNAMI.
17-09-2015 04:11 CANCELACION PARCIAL DEL ESTADO DE ALARMA DE TSUNAMI.
17-09-2015 03:06 CANCELACION PARCIAL DEL ESTADO DE ALARMA DE TSUNAMI.
17-09-2015 02:26 CANCELACION PARCIAL DEL ESTADO DE ALARMA DE TSUNAMI.
17-09-2015 01:30 CANCELACION PARCIAL DEL ESTADO DE ALARMA DE TSUNAMI.
17-09-2015 00:39 CANCELACION PARCIAL DEL ESTADO DE ALARMA DE TSUNAMI.
16-09-2015 23:19 CANCELACION PARCIAL DEL ESTADO DE ALARMA DE TSUNAMI.
16-09-2015 22:22 CANCELACION PARCIAL DEL ESTADO DE ALARMA DE TSUNAMI.
16-09-2015 21:50 ALARMA DE TSUNAMI PARA LAS COSTAS DE CHILE
16-09-2015 21:01 ALARMA DE TSUNAMI PARA LAS COSTAS DE CHILE
16-09-2015 20:42 ALARMA DE TSUNAMI PARA LAS COSTAS DE CHILE
16-09-2015 20:32 ALARMA DE TSUNAMI PARA LAS COSTAS DE CHILE
16-09-2015 20:12 ALARMA DE TSUNAMI PARA LAS COSTAS DE CHILE
16-09-2015 20:02 ALARMA DE TSUNAMI PARA LAS COSTAS DE CHILE

The initial countrywide tsunami alert was issued at 16-09-2015 20:02 (local time) referring to a Mw 7.9
Richter scale event occurring at 19:54 (local time), thus 8 minutes after the event. The second warning, 10
minutes later added arrival times while the 3rd (20:32 local time) updated the information with a new
magnitude assessment of Mw 8.3 Richter and a measurement of 1.4 m at PICHIDANGUI. Further updates
added additional measurements up to 21:50 (local time) when the reference magnitude was increased to
Mw 8.4 Richter and several measuring stations reporting tsunami amplitudes up to 4.5 m.

TOCOPILLA:0.14 [M]. MEJILLONES:0.16 [M].

ANTOFAGASTA:0.20 [M]. PAPOSO:0.17 [M]. TALTAL:0.18
[M]. SAN FELIX:0.61 [M]. CHANARAL:0.70 [M].
CALDERA:0.65 [M]. HUASCO:0.64 [M]. COQUIMBO:4.50
[M]. PICHIDANGUI:1.90 [M]. JUAN FERNANDEZ:1.05 [M].
QUINTERO:1.90 [M]. VALPARAISO:1.78 [M]. SAN
ANTONIO:1.20 [M]. BUCALEMU:0.54 [M].
CONSTITUCION:0.56 [M]. ISLA QUIRIQUINA:0.14 [M].

Based on sea level measurements and tsunami wave

modelling, the alert was partially lifted for various parts
of the country starting at 22:22 (local time) roughly 2:30
hours after the event. Further partial cancellations
followed until the total countrywide alert cancellation at
06:19, more than 10 hours after the event.

Figure 10 - Inidication of the location reported in the Chilean

messages

Joint Research Centre, I-21020 Ispra (VA), Italy

5 Meteorological Situation
Besides today's chance of rain showers during
warm hours of the day the next significant
weather event (change) is expected to take place
during 22 to 23 September (next Tuesday &
Wednesday) with overcast skies / moderate rain
and a considerable drop in temperature.

Winds also will be increased (15 to 25 km/h) and

will be mostly from northeastern directions.
Special care should be taken for people that are
exposed to weather conditions especially during
night hours.

Based on a vast combination of maps coming

both the European Center for Medium-Range
Weather Forecast (ECMWF) and the Global
Forecast System from NOAA the following
weather could be envisaged. Figure 11 - GFS Precipitation Forecast valid for 18 Sep 2015

TODAY 17 September 2015

Partly cloudy in morning hours with a chance
of showers developing during afternoon.
Maximum temperature to reach 18 degrees
Celsius. Winds from southwest directions with
10 to 15 km/hour. Chance of rain during warm
hours of the day at about 30%.

TOMORROW 18 September 2015

Partly cloudy. Maximum temperature to reach
18 degrees Celsius. Winds from southwest
directions with 10 to 15 km/hour.

LONG TERM FORECAST

FROM 19 TO 21 September 2015

Partly cloudy. No significant change in
temperature. Winds from west/southwest
directions with 5 to 10 km/hour. Figure 12 - GFS Precipitation Forecast valid for 24 Sep 2015

FROM 22 TO 23 September 2015

Cloudy with rain with considerable drop in temperature. Winds mostly from northeastern
directions with 15 to 25 km/hour.

FROM 24 TO 26 September 2015

Mostly cloudy with no significant change in temperature. Winds mostly from southwest directions
with 10 to 15 km/hour.

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Joint Research Centre, I-21020 Ispra (VA), Italy

6 References
For updated information on the disaster, please consult the following web sites:

Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System: http://www.gdacs.org

ERCC portal: http://ercportal.jrc.ec.europa.eu/
Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre: http://ptwc.weather.gov/
ONEMI: http://www.onemi.cl/
USGS: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us20003k7a#general_summary
SNAM Chile: http://www.snamchile.cl/

GFS: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/samerica

For the latest news on damage, impact etc the following web sites were used:

BBC: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-34275783
La Nacion: http://www.lanacion.cl/
La Segunda: http://www.lasegunda.com/

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ANNEX I: Detailed map of the earthquake and tsunami

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ANNEX II: Aftershocks
Prior to the 8.3Mw earthquake, no major foreshock occurred. After the main shock two important events
close to Mw 7 occurred.

Figure 13 Pre- and aftershocks

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ANNEX III: Social Media Analysis
Social media analysis by the JRC, showing number of tweets per keyword (1st graph). Large presence of
Tsunami and Chile words happen after the event.

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Joint Research Centre, I-21020 Ispra (VA), Italy