Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Vietnam: Dinh La Thang
Reprimanded Will Dismissal
Follow?

Carlyle A. Thayer
May 7,2017
[client name deleted]
Reportedly (see DPA story below), Politburo member Dinh La Thang will be dismissed
as the party chief of Hat the Central Committee's forthcoming plenum. The plenum
willopen on May 5-L1.
What is your assessment if Thang is dismissed? How does his dismissal influence
Vietnam's politics?
of internal/factional fighting? or it is just the determination
ls Thang's dismissal a sign
of the party chief Nguyen Phu Trong to fight against corruption?
Vietnamese Politburo member censured for graft
Text

Hanoi (DPA) Vietnam's single party communist state has found a member of its
-
elite 19-member politburo responsible for high level corruption for the first time
in the nation's history, the party announced on Thursday [May a].
Dinh La Thang, who is also the party boss for Ho Chi Minh City, was found guilty by
the Communist Party's Central Committee for ignoring graft while serving as
general director of the state-owned PetroVietnam (PVN) energy company in 2009-
1L, resulting in "very serious consequences", the Communist Party announced on
its website.
He was specifically found guilty of allowing PetroVietnam to invest 20 per cent of
its capital in the state-run Oceanbank bank, whose management was accused by
the government of losing 88 million dollars through criminal mismanagement.
ln February, the trial began of 48 former bank officials on corruption charges in a
Hanoi court. The proceedings were halted in March to allow the government to
explore new evidence.
Thang was also found guilty of designating many bidding contracts that were
against the law, leading to serious losses for PVN.
The government has not announced how Thang will be punished or if he will be
charged.
 2

ASSESMENT: My sources report along similar lines; the amount of publicity given to
this case is too great for Thang to escape dismissal as party chief in Ho Chi Minh City.
Thang will be the fourth member of the Politburo to be reprimanded or dismissed
since the 4th national party congress in 1976: Tran Xuan Bach. Nguyen Ha Phan,
Truong Tan Sang, and now Dinh La Thang. Bach was dismissed, the others were
reprimanded.
Recall that Thang was not on the original list for election to the party Central
Committee prior to the 12th party congress. A strong group of supporters succeeded
in getting his name on the list. I am not sure this this reveals party factionalism so
much as a grouping of party members who benefitted from Thang as head of
PetroVietnam and then as Minister of Transport. So far, I haven't seen reports that
Thang personally benefitted from corruption. The main issue, reportedly, seems to be
a SSOO million lost in investment in Venezuela. As you know Vietnam treats poor
decision-making in running a business that leads to large losses for the state as a
criminal offence.
Nguyen Phu Trong and anti-corruption officials spent seven months investigating this
case before making their decision. I think it tells us Trong is serious about rooting out
large scale corruption and PetroVietnam certainly provided a target.
What is unclear is whether Thang will be expelled from the party or given a lower level
post elsewhere.

My assessment is that Secretary General Trong is in a strong position and had to act
when the evidence mounted. Follow the money.. or in this case follow who was in
charge and you end up with Thang. The same with Truong Tan Sang over the Nam Cam
affair and criminal influence over the police in Ho Chi Minh City.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A, Thayer, "Vietnam: Dinh La Thang Reprimanded Will

Dismissal Follow?," Thayer Consultoncy Bockground Brief, May 7, 2077. All
background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself
from the mailing list type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
 Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:
ABN # 65 548 097 123
Vietnam: Ho Chi Minh Party
Chief Falls from Grace

Carlyle A. Thayer
May 8,2017

[client name deleted]

The following report was brought to our aitention: Vietnam sacks top official for
PetroVietnam'violation' - BBC News. www.bbc.com
http ://www. bbc.co m/news/world-asia-39840943

Sounds a bit like the Chinese corruption probe!

Dinh La Thang, an unusually outspoken politician, was sacked in a crackdown on the

state oil and gas firm PetroVietnam or PVN.
ANSWER: Dinh La Thang's likely dismissalwas strongly rumoured late last month.

Vietnam criminalizes commercial decisions that cause serious financial losses to the
state. The charges against Thang go back to his days as head of PVN. Numerous PVN
officials have been implicated in high level corruption and poor and/or illegal
investment decisions. One story is that Thang's decision to invest in Venezuela led to
a loss of Ssoo million

Thang was not on the initial list of Central Committee candidates to be submitted to
the L2th party congress. A support network emerged to get him on the ballot, get him
elected to the Central Committee (with a middling vote) and then elected to the
Politburo. His appointment as party chief in Ho Chi Minh City took almost everyone by
surprise.

5o far, I haven't come across reports that Thang personally benefitted from
corruption. He was in charge of PVN and failed to exercise due diligence over those in
his employ. My sources say that party chief Nguyen Phu Trong and his group
intervened and studied this matter for seven months before deciding to take action.
lf asked to pick between party in-fighting and the anti-corruption struggle I would
favour the latter.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, "Vietnam: Ho Chi Minh Party Chief Falls from
Grace," Thoyer Consultancy Bockground Brief, May 8, 20L7. All background briefs are
posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list
type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
 Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:
ABN # 65 648 097 123
Vietnam: Nguyen Thien Nhan to
head Ho Chi Minh City Party
Committee

Carlyle A. Thayer
May 9,2017
[client name deleted]
Nguyen Thien Nhan, the head of the Vietn6m Fatherland Front (VFF), will now replace
Dinh La Thang as party secretary of Ho Chi Minh City.

Q1. What do you think of the decision to move Nhan back to Saigon as the new party
chief?
ANSER: lt that Nhan did not do so well as Education Minister. And party rules
is clear
stipulated that the Fatherland Front be chaired by an active member of the politburo
(rather than a retired member as before). Nhan was kicked upstairs to the VFF.
His
reassignment as party chief in Ho Chi Minh City is designed to groom him for higher
duties if he succeeds. He needs some internal party experience if his career is going to
go anywhere. lt is an important post and his background and experience
with the
Fatherland Front will help him administer Ho Chi Minh Cityl

Q2. How do you comment on Nhan's work for the past time? ls he considered active?
Skilled?
ANSWER: Heading the Vietnam Fatherland Front is not a particularly difficult task.
lt
involves conducting liaison with its mass organizations and affiliated people,s
organizations. lf Nhan is viewed as having a privileged elitist background his
experience with the Front has broadened his base to major constituents in
Vietnamese society (women, workers, farmers, youth). I see Nhan as a "grey figure',
who fitted in at the Fatherland Front and kept a low uncontentious profile. He bided
his time, successfully as it now turns out. His skill base has widened considerably.
He
has had to listen to a diversity of groups and a multitude of issues. He will now
step
into a job that will require him to exercise authority and leadership.

suggested citation: carlyle A. Thayer, "vietnam: Nguyen Thien Nhan to head Ho chi
Minh city Party committee," Thoyer consurtancy Bockground Brief May g,2oL7. All
,
background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself
from the mailing list type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
 Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:
ABN # 65 648 097 123
Vietnam: Implications of Dinh
La Thang's Dismissal from the
Politburo
Carlyle A. Thayer
May 9,2017
[client name deleted]
We request your assessment regarding Dinh La Thang's case. Thang has been
dismissed as party secretary of Ho Chi Minh City and from the Politburo
1 What is your take on the latest development?
ANSWER: Since the 4th national party congress in 1976 three members of the
Politburo have either been dismissed (Tran Xuan Bach) or disciplined/reprimanded
(Nguyen Ha Phan, Truong Tan Sang). The scandal over investment decisions and
finance at PetroVietnam was so huge that it could not be ignored. While no evidence
has emerged that Thang personally profited, Vietnamese law makes it a criminal
offence to cause huge losses to the state. As the evidence mounted it became clear
Thang would be dismissed from the Politburo. My understanding is that he will retain
his seat on the Central Committee and be appointed deputy head of the Central
Committee Commission on Economics. Thang's fall from grace is in line with how the
party handled the cases of Phan and Sang.
2. Some say the case shows that infighting is taking place within the party at the high
level. What are your thoughts?
ANWER: it is clear that Thang has support of a number of party members who added
his name to the list of candidates for elections to the Central Committee at the L2th
party congress. He wasn't on the list initially. He was elected to the Central Committee
by a majority but not a commanding majority. Thang's failing preceede his
appointment as Minister of Transport. ln other words, he was found guilty of
mismanagement. He was a victim of party Secretary General Nguyen Phu Trong's anti-
corruption case. Trong and associates took seven months to study this case before
making a decision. The fact that Thang was given a lower level appointment indicates
that party infighting does not appear to have been the decisive factor.
3. Why is the public so interested in this case?

ANSWER: The public is interested because of the role of social media reporting over a
long period of time when the party-controlled media stayed relatively quiet. The
public is always interested in cases that the party tries to keep quiet. The case involved
many officials at PetroVietnam so the saga of wrongdoing came out like a soap opera
series. There was always more news to report. And the public was interested in how
 2

high up the investigation would go and what sort of punishment would be meted out.
Two congresses ago, party officials identified corruption as a major threat to teh
party's legitimacy.
4. What might happen next?

ANSWER: My understanding is that Nguyen Thien Nhan will vacate his post as head of
the Fatherland Front and become party chief in Ho Chi Minh City. Nhan will now be
given a chance to prove whether he should be given higher office if he succeeds in the
south.
The police and courts will continue to arrest and try individuals who worked at
PetroVietnam who have so far evaded being arrested. Thang will fade into the
background. t
Party Secretary General Nguyen Phu Trong and his supporters will be in a
strengthened position and the anti-corruption campaign will continue.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, "Vietnam: lmplications of Dinh La Thang's

Dismissal from the Politburo," Thayer Consultancy Background Brief , May 9,20!7. All
background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself
from the mailing list type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in2002.
 Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:
ABN # 65 648 097 123
Vietnam: Dinh La Thang Victim
of Factional In-Fighting?

Carlyle A. Thayer
May ll,20l7

[client name deleted]

We request your assessment of the following:
Q1 ls it the end of the tunnel for Mr Dinh La Thang after being removed from his post
on the Politburo? Can he still have a decent political career? What can we infer by the
fact that he has not been kicked out of the party and has a new appointment in the
central committee?
ANSWER:Thang still retains his membership on the Central Committee and so has at
least three years to redeem himself or to retire. His appointment as a deputy head of
the Central Committee Economics Commission seems to indicate he is being spared
outright dismissal and will be left to serve his tenure out of the limelight. While no
evidence has emerged that Thang personally profited from corrupt acts, he has been
exposed as a weak administrator at PetroVietnam (PVN). Those who supported
Thang's rise will now have to look elsewhere for a patron. lt seems likely that Thang
will rise no further under the present leadership.
Q2 Several critics claim that the recent high-profile arrests and trials are mainly the
result of political infighting between former Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung and the
part chief Nguyen Phu Trong? And Mr Thang's removal is also related to this in-
fighting. ls this truth? What is your take on this?
ANSWER: ln the lead up to the 12th party congress Dinh La Thang was not included on
a draft list of potential candidates until a group of his supporters successfully got his
name on the ballot. Thang was elected to the Central Committee but not by an
outstanding margin. He has a support base but it is too simplistic to view all in-fighting
in Hanoi as between the supporters of Secretary General Trong and former Prime
Minister Dung. Dung failed and went quietly into the night. Thang's support base
comes from those who have benefitted from his tenure at PetroVietnam or as Minister
of Transport. His style was more modern than his peers.
Thang failed to supervise his subordinates at PVN and he approved investment
decisions that with hindsight appear unwise. Since Vietnam criminalises individuals or
causing severe losses to the state it was only a matter of time that the anti-corruption
investigation would move up and expose Thang's failure to exercise due diligence. My
understanding is that Secretary General Trong and a small group spent seven months
 2

studying this case before acting. The corruption and mismanagement issues at PVN
were too big to ignore.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, "Vietnam: Dinh La Thang Victim of Factional ln-
Fighting?" Thayer Consultoncy Bockground Brief , May Ll,2OL7. All background briefs
are posted on Scribd.com (search forThayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list
type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in2OO2.