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A mi esposa Violeta, mi compaera por siempre A mis hijos: Luca y Alejandro, por quienes
cada da trato de ser mejor Al Ing. Nstor Santos por su asesorainvalorable
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En los sistemas bancarios o financieros es importante analizar el riesgo crediticio cuando se le
concede un crdito a un cliente para un producto determinado. El presente trabajo de
investigacin tiene como objetivo encontrar un patrn de comportamiento de la morosidad a
partir de la informacin obtenida al momento de solicitar un crdito para un producto crediticio y
a su vez dar a conocer una nueva tcnica estadstica muy til para este campo que es la tcnica
de los rboles de Regresin CART la cual se aplica en situaciones donde se tienen un conjunto
de datos de individuos en los que se han medido variables predictoras o independientes y una
variable de clasificacin o de criterio que define el grupo al que cada individuo pertenece; y se
quiere encontrar un conjunto de reglas de decisin que permitan explicar la clasificacin
existente y utilizar estas reglas para poder clasificar a un nuevo individuo, esta tcnica tiene la
ventaja de una alta potencia en sus estimadores.
En el presente trabajo se hace una descripcin del CART como un algoritmo de desarrollo
de rboles y se presenta una aplicacin de dicho algoritmo al reconocimiento de patrones de
morosidad y de no morosidad para un producto crediticio de una entidad del sistema financiero
nacional que otorga prstamos a personas naturales.
Se presenta el marco terico empezando con una caracterizacin del sistema financiero
nacional. Luego se dan algunas referencias sobre el riesgo de crdito y se dan las bases tericas
sobre el reconocimiento de patrones. Finalmente se presenta la metodologa del rbol de
clasificacin CART que es objetivo del presente trabajo y una definicin conceptual de trminos.
La metodologa de la investigacin esta referida a la descripcin del producto crediticio y la
estrategia para la prueba de hiptesis. Para aplicar el algoritmo de rbol de clasificacin CART
se ha trabajado con un producto crediticio del sistema financiero nacional que otorga prstamos
en dlares a personas naturales. En este caso particular, el fin que cumple el producto crediticio
consiste en otorgar lneas de crdito a todas aquellas personas naturales dependientes que
cumplan con los requisitos establecidos por la entidad bancaria.
El producto crediticio se ofreci a personas dependientes de empresas o instituciones
privadas y gubernamentales que se encontraron en situacin de activos (empleados, obreros, etc.)
o jubilados cuyos ingresos mensuales sean mayores a US $ 700.00 o su equivalente en moneda
nacional.
Para el procesamiento de la informacin se trabaj con la informacin de todos los clientes
que obtuvieron el producto crediticio. El trabajo se realiz en dos etapas:
Etapa I: Descripcin univariada y bivariada de las variables descriptivas y de la variable
criterio, para lo cual se utiliz el software estadstico SPSS versin 10.0.
Etapa II: Aplicacin del algoritmo de rbol de clasificacin CART, para lo cual se utiliz el
software CART 4.0 for Windows de la compaa Salford Systems [7]; para generar los
resultados de la clasificacin usando como medida de impureza el ndice de Gini con costos de
mala clasificacin iguales.
Finalmente, se presenta el procedimiento de la tcnica del rbol de clasificacin CART para
el producto crediticio empleado, con la presentacin, anlisis e interpretacin de los datos usando
un anlisis descriptivo univariado y bivariado. Luego se presenta el anlisis del rbol generado
por el algoritmo CART.
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En los anexos se presenta un manual del software CART y las reglas de clasificacin para
los morosos y los no morosos.
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Salinas FJ

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