Some Basics of Analyzing Repairable systems

Many parameters of Repairable systems are analogous to Non-repairable systems.

Non-Repairable Repairable
f(t) = failure probability density m(t) = repair probability density
(i.e probability distribution of failure (i.e probability distribution of repair
times). times, or downtime times).

F(t)=Cumulative failure density M(t)=Cumulative repair density

=Unreliability
1-F(t) is Reliability
h(t)=instantaneous rate of failures.
or hazard rate
(also represented by (t) ).
MTTF =Mean time to first failure
=mean of f(t)
=Maintainability
1-M(t) is the prob. of not completing repair.
(t) =instantaneous rate of repairs
(some books also represent it by h(t).)
(t) = rate of occurrence of failures ROCOF.
MTTR =Mean time to repair
Or Mean Down Time (MDT)
=mean of m(t)

MTBF=Mean time between failures

=Mean of the uptimes
Reliability (most important) Availability (most important)
In a workshop a batch of 100 instruments have been given to repair,
and the repair times are given below as Grouped Data.

1. Plot the repair parameters m(t), M(t) and h(t). Find Mean down time.

Time (hr) Number repaired

0-10 12
11-20 15
21-30 22
31-40 19
41-50 18
51-60 14
 Discrete distributions of m(t), M(t), h(t) etc are defined as follows
for Grouped Data:

Consider repairs taking place for N items in a time T (divided into equal
intervals t).

No. of repairs in an interval t

m(t ) i.e, similar to f (t )
Initial unrepaired sample size

Total repaired items upto an interval

M (t ) i.e, similar to F (t )
Initial unrepaired sample size

No. of repairs in an interval

h (t )
(No. of unrepaired items in the beginning of the interval)(Time interval)
Time (h) No. Cumulative Un M(t) m(t) h(t)
repaired repaired -repaired

0-10 12 12 88 0.12 0.12 0.012

11-20 15 27 73 0.27 0.15 0.017

=27/100 =15/100 =15/(88*10)

21-30 22 49 51 0.49 0.22 0.03

31-40 19 68 32 0.68 0.19 0.037

41-50 18 86 14 0.86 0.18 0.056

51-60 14 14 0 1.0 0.14 0.1

N=100 m(t)=1
MDT = 5*0.12 + 15*0.15 + 25*0.22 + 35*0.19 + 45*0.18 + 55*0.14
(i.e taking mid values of intervals)
=30.8hours
Note: this is Mean Down Time because of waiting
period at workshop.
2. Given that the Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) of this particular
instrument is 260 hours of use, what is its Availability?

Availability is MTBF/(MTBF+MDT)
=260/(260+30.8)
=89.4%
Continuous form of Repair functions:

They follow similar rules as the function f (t ) and F (t ) for non-repairable components

1. m(t ) dt 1
0
t
2. M (t ) m(t ') dt '
0

3. MTTR t. m(t ) dt;
0

Note : (t MTTR ) . m(t ) dt t 2 . m(t ) dt MTTR 2 .
2 2

0 0

4. MTTR (1 M (t )) dt
0

5. m(t ) h(t ).(1 M (t ))

More accurate estimates are obtained from data collected from operating
logbook of machines, giving the precise uptimes and downtimes.

From these we can work out the MTBF and MDT of that machine.

We can also guess the type of distribution of m(t) using probability chart
paper or Weibull analysis.
 Data from the operating
Uptime logbook of a machine.
Downtime
Uptime
Downtime (Time in hours)

Calculate :
1. MTBF
2. MDT
3. Distribution of m(t)
4. Availability of this machine.

Total=8205.3 Total=112.5
MTBF=8205.3/12 MDT=112.5/12
=683.8 hr =9.4 hr
What is the distribution of m(t)?
Let us order the downtimes, and plot it vs Cumulative function M(t).

i Ordered downtimes M(i) , median

(hr) formula
1 0.6 0.0565
2 1.5 0.1371
3 2.5 0.2177
4 3.5 0.2984
5 4.8 0.3790
6 6.2 0.4597
7 7.8 0.5403
8 9.7 0.6210
9 12.1 0.7016
10 15.2 0.7823
11 19.9 0.8629
12 28.7 0.9435
Recall the form of the Weibull cumulative plot;
1
log e log e log e t log e
1 M (t )

i.e, y bx c
(b is the slope equal to , and y intercept c is equal to - log e ).
Note : x coordinates are in the form of log (t).

OR

Use Weibull Chart paper

Approximate values:- =1; =10
What is the repair rate h( t )?
use 1 and 10.
1
t
0
t
h (t ) 0.1 0.1/ hr (constant repair rate).
10

1
MTTR= (1 ) 10 (2) 10 hr (agrees with other estimate of 9.4hr)

Find Median time to repair tmed from first principles:-

t
-

We know, M(t )=1 e

t
- med

M (tmed ) 0.5 1 e

t t
- med - med

0.5 e e 10

Taking natural logarithm and solving, we get:

tmed 6.9hr
 In the same way we can fit a Weibull distribution to the uptimes.

In this case we get:

=1; =700.
1
MTBF= (1 ) 700 (2)

700 hr (agrees with first estimate of 683 h)

Availability of this machine = 700/(700+10)= 98.6%

We can also find the failure rate ( ROCOF ) from the "uptime" Weibull fit;
1
t
0
t
(t ) 0.00143 0.00143/ hr (constant failure rate).
700

Availability is also given by,

h 0.1
98.6%
h 0.1 0.00143
The distribution of m(t ) can be of any form - normal, log-normal, exponential,
Weibull etc. (refer worked example).

A commonly used model is "Constant Repair Rate model"; i.e., h is constant.

m(t ) h e ht (exponential distribution)

t t

ht ' ht
M (t ) m ( t ') dt ' h e dt ' 1 e
0 0

1 1
MTTR ; .
h h
In many practical cases, repair times are log-normally distributed:
(i.e. distribution of log e (t) is normally distributed).

Using the alternate form of Log-Normal distribution;

2
1 t
2 log e
1 2
m(t )
tmed
e
t 2
( where is the std .dev of t; tmed is the median time to repair.)

1 t
M (t ) log e ( z ).
tmed

2
MTTR tmed e 2
Example :

1.Exponential Distribution

A particular type of component can be repaired at the constant rate of 0.01 per hour.
What is the probability of completing a repair in 50 hr?
What is the probability of exceeding 50 hr for a repair?
Ans :
h 0.01 / hr
MTTR=1/0.01=100hrs.
1.Probability of completing a repair before 50hrs = M(50)
=1-e- ht 1 e-0.0150
=0.3937
2.Probability of exceeding 50 hr for a repair =1-0.3937=0.6065
Example :
2.Lognormal Distribution

A particular type of component has to be repaired in 3 hrs with 90% probability.

Assume the repair times have a log-normal behaviour, with =0.45.
Find t med , MTTR.

Ans :
M (3) 0.9
1 3
log e 0.9
0.45 tmed
( z ) 0.9 (From Gaussian tables, z =1.28)
1 3
1.28= log e
0.45 tmed
tmed 1.686 hr
2 0.452
MTTR tmed e 2 1.686 e 2
1.866 hr
END