Estimating the Impact of Land Use and Urbanization in

Marikina River Basin

ROMERO, Jomar Paul Berba

Ground Design Laboratory
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Flood in 2009
On Sept. 25-27, 2009; TS Ondoy [Ketsana] caused
severe flooding over Metro Manila and surrounding
provinces, specially in the Marikina River Basin. It
affected 4.9 million people and killed 1,090 people,
with 940 in Metro Manila (World Bank, 2013)

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What were the reasons? Urbanization and Land Use Change
Heavy Rainfall
Typhoon Ondoy poured the highest amount of precipitation ever Rapid Urbanization and densification at the downstream, and
recorded in recent history. (Abon, et. al., 2011) diminishing forest cover at the upstream (Rizal PPDO, 2010;
Hydrograph of Marikina River During 2009 Flood Prawiranegara, 2014)

Santillan, et. al., 2012

Landsat 4 January 25, 1989 Landsat 7 April 14, 2012

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Research Question and Previous Studies
How much is the impact of Land Use Change and Urbanization in Marikina
River Basin in terms of damage cost?
Previous Studies
Flood Volume Response to Urbanization
There is a potential change in
peak discharge and flood
volume with increasing
impervious surface due to
urbanization, and smaller flood
volumes are more sensitive to
urbanization compared to larger
flood volumes (Du et. al., 2012)
Nigussie and Altunkaynak (2016)
found that the unrestricted urban
growth scenario (2050-Scen3)
generated the highest peak flow
and shortest time, out of the four
urbanization scenario simulated
using SLEUTH Model (Slope,
Landuse, Exclusion, Urban Extent,
Transportation, and Hillside).
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Research Purpose and Research Flow
Determine the flood impact (Direct Damage Costs) in Marikina River
Basin at different urbanization scenarios from 1970 and 2016.
Research Flow Rainfall-Runoff Simulation Flood Damage Cost Estimation
2009 EFCOS
Hydrological
Data for USGS SRTM
Simulation 30m DEM

1970 1970 1970 1970 1970

Land Classification

iRIC Nays2DFlood
Landuse Damage

Damage-Depth
Landsat Simulated Simulated
Flood Area

HEC-HMS
Data Data Discharge Cost

Curve
2016 2016 2016 2016 2016
Landsat Landuse Simulated Simulated Damage
Data Data Discharge Flood Area Cost

2004 EFCOS
Hydrological
Data for
Calibration

Land Use Change Detection Flood Inundation Simulation 5

Methods (Land Use Classification)
Generating Land Use Classification Data using Landsat Images
Different combinations of Landsat bands will be used for land classification. For the Land Classification,
the Maximum Likelihood Classifier in the Image Analysis function of ArcGIS shall be used.
Band Combinations
=
R, G, B R, G, B

Where:
X: image data of n bands
: Likelihood of X
belonging to class k
: mean vector of class k
: variance-covariance matrix
of class k
: determinant of
1 : inverse matrix of
: transposed matrix
of the difference of X and

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Source: USGS Landsat
1970

Landsat 2 MSS

2016

Landsat 8 OLI-TIRS

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Landsat Images Land Use Classification CN Grid
Methods (Rainfall-Runoff Simulation)
HEC GeoHMS plugin in ArcGIS and HEC-HMS.
HEC GeoHMS is a plugin for ArcGIS released by
the US Army Corps of Engineers Hydraulic
Engineering Center.
It is a geospatial hydrology toolkit that allows the
user to create basin parameters based on
topographic data for hydrologic model.
The HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Modeling System) is a
mathematical model that simulates the
precipitation-runoff and routing in natural or
controlled watershed.
Spatial data from HEC GeoHMS could be
imported to HEC-HMS to predict discharge and
flow based on given meteorological and land use
data.

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Methods (Rainfall-Runoff Simulation) 0.208
SCS Runoff Computation 0 SCS Unit Hydrograph 1) =

(1) = 2 +
> 2) = , = 2.67
+ 1.7
(2) = 0.2 = 0.05 0.8 + 1 0.7
3) =
25400 1900 0.5
(3) = 254 Qp = Peak Outflow
0.208 = Peak Rate Factor (Shape Factor)
A = Area
Q = runoff Q= Total Excess Precipitation (1mm)
P = rainfall measurement Tp = time to peak
S = Potential Maximum Soil Moisture Tc = Time of concentration = 1.67L
Retention after runoff D = Time interval
Ia = Initial abstraction or amount of water L = Lag Time
before runoff l = hydraulic channel length
CN = Curve Number (ranges from 30 100) S = Potential Soil Moisture Retention
Y = Basin Slope

Exponential Recession Baseflow Formula Muskingum-Cunge Model for Streamflow Routing

Qn+1j+1=C1Qjn+C2Qjn+1+C3qj+1n+C4
C1=[Kx+(t/2)]/D
C2=(t/2-Kx)/D K=
C3=[K(1-x)-t/2]/D
Qt = Discharge at any C4=[qtx]/D
1
= 1
D=K(1-x)+t/2 2
time, t
Qo = Initial Baseflow Qj = inflow to the reach
K = Recession Constant Qj+1 = reach outflow
t = Time t = routing time increment of the finite difference cell
x = space increment of the finite difference cell
q = representative unit width discharge
c = flood wave celerity
Source: B = bottom width or ave. width 9
USDA Natural Resource Conservation Service
 Calibrated Hydrograph @ Montalban Sta. (2004 Rainfall)
Mt. Aries 3500 0

Mt. Oro 3000

10

2500
20

Precipitation (mm)
Discharge (cms)
N. Nangka 2000
30
1500
Montalban
NW Nangka Sta. 40
1000

50
500

0 60

61

163
1
7
13
19
25
31
37
43
49
55

67
73
79
85
91
97
103
109
115
121
127
133
139
145
151
157

169
175
181
187
193
199
205
211
217
Boso-Boso
Precipitation @Boso-boso Time (mins) Observed Trial 11
Sto. Nino Sta. 2
=1 , ,
Vol Simul (1000 m3) 102286.8 =1 2

Vol Obs (1000 m3) 94161.2 =1 ,
Qp Simul (cms) 2747.6
Lower , ,
Nangka Qp Obs (cms) 3058 = 100
=1
Marikina Tp Simulated 30Nov2004, 00:00

=1 ,
Tp Observed 30Nov2004, 00:00
2
E 0.929078579 =1 , ,
=
Rosario Weir (Outlet) PBIAS -8.675867998 2
=1 ,
RSR 0.266310761
Performance Check E = Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of
Rating E PBIAS RSR Model Efficiency
VG 0.75 < E < 1.0 PBIAS < 10 0 < RSR < 0.5 PBIAS = Percent Bias
G 0.65 < E < 0.75 10 < PBIAS < 15 0.5 < RSR < 0.6 RSR = Root Mean Square Error-
S 0.5 < E < 0.65 15 < PBIAS < 25 0.6 < RSR < 0.7 Observations Std. Dev. Ratio
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U E < 0.5 PBIAS > 25 RSR > 0.7 (Moriasi, et. al., 2007)
Methods(Flood Inundation Simulation)
The iRIC Nays2DFlood is a flood flow analysis
solver that relies on unsteady 2-dimensional
plane flow simulation using boundary-fitted
coordinates* as the general curvilinear
coordinates.
Easily enables the user to set the inflow
conditions of an arbitrary number of inflow
rivers that enter from the upstream end side
or side of a river.
It has been applied to river flow analysis of
small and mid-scale rivers.
Since the solver does not require river
channel data, it is also used for flood process
analysis of primitive rivers and rivers in Where:
h = water depth
developing countries. t = time
u = velocity comp. at the x-axis
v = velocity comp. at the y-axis
q = inflow through a box culvert, sluice pipe or pump per unit area
r = rainfall
, = general curvilinear coordinates 11
iRIC 2009 Flood
Nays2DFlood Inundation
Inundation Simulation
Area (Badilla, et. al., 2014)
Simulation

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Methods (Damage Cost Estimation)
Estimation of Direct Flood Damage using Mathematical Models (Dutta et. al. 2003)
Estimation of Direct Damages to Agriculture and Structures will be estimated with a mathematical
model, which are dependent on the depth-damage curves

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Outcomes and Future Plans
Outcomes
Land Use Data for 1970 and 2016
Watershed Delineation of Marikina River Basin
Calibration and Efficiency Check of HEC-HMS model using observed data
Coherent iRIC Nays2DFlood Inundation Map results with other inundation maps.

Future Plans
Activities Mar Apr May Jun

Rainfall-Runoff Modeling
Inundation Area Simulation

Damage Cost Calculation

Thesis Writing
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Thank you for listening!

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